Felix Bautista – Imaginary Brick Wall

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Baltimore Orioles 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

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Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Boston Red Sox—Minnesota Twins—Washington Nationals

*Ages are as of Opening Day 2023
**Prime Projections represent a relatively good outcome scenario that is meant to shine more light on the type of numbers I think a prospect projects for. It is not necessarily a most likely outcome.

Hitters

Jorge Mateo BAL, SS, 27.10 – Mateo is one my top sells this off-season. Those 13 homers and 35 steals are going to look mighty enticing to a speed needy team, but he still ranked only 114th overall on the Razzball Player Rater because of weak production everywhere else. He had a .221 BA with 63 runs and 50 RBI. His underlying numbers look even worse with a .272 xwOBA which is in the bottom 6% of the league, and his plate approach is terrible with a 27.6%/5.1% K%/BB%. I’m not even sure the new stolen base rules are going to help him because he doesn’t get on base enough to take advantage of it, and steals aren’t going to be as hard to find next year in general. If those were the only issues, I might not even be too scared off, but Baltimore’s stacked minor league system is breathing down his neck with Gunnar Henderson, Connor Norby, and Jordan Westburg ready to stake their rightful claim to the infield. Mateo was an excellent defensive SS last year, but I don’t think it will be enough for him to hold down the starting job. I think he’ll be a super utility player by the 2nd half of the season. 2023 Projection: 68/11/53/.230/.277/.385/28

Adley Rutschman BAL, C, 25.2 – Rutschman stepped into the majors and immediately turned Baltimore into winners. He didn’t get called up until late May and his 5.3 WAR was still the 2nd best catcher mark in the majors (JT Realmuto was 1st with a 6.5 WAR). His 133 wRC+ was the 4th best overall. It’s a hell of a MLB debut, and as much as I want to go crazy for Rutschman, I would pump the brakes slightly in a 5×5 BA league. He’s never really been a monster home run hitter with 13 homers in 113 games, and while his 87.9/93 MPH AVG/FB EV is solid, it’s not like he was smashing the ball. In an OBP league or in 6+ categories, by all means go crazy for his elite plate approach (18.3%/13.8% K%/BB%) and .362 OBP. Having said that, I still like him a lot in 5×5 BA as his 15.6 degree launch angle is conducive to both power and average, and his counting stats should be elite for a catcher. There are a lot of really talented catcher prospects in the pipeline behind Rutschman, but Rutschman is leading the pack as my #1 catcher for Dynasty Baseball no matter what the league categories are. 2023 Projection: 86/22/78/.266/.374/.465/5

Anthony Santander BAL, OF, 28.5 – Baltimore turned into one of the worst hitter’s ballparks in the league, but someone forget to tell Santander that. He quietly turned into one of the better hitters in baseball with plus contact rates (18.9% K%), a career best walk rate (8.5% BB%), strong EV’s (90.1 MPH), and a launch angle that is made for dingers (21.4 degrees). It all led to 33 homers with a .352 xwOBA. His .240 BA kept his overall line in check, and while he’s not a high BABIP guy, a .248 BABIP is below his career average of .264. He’s not going to be super undervalued, but there should still be some meat on the bone for where he’ll likely be going. 2023 Projection: 81/31/92/.254/.326/.477/1

Starting Pitchers

Tyler Wells BAL, RHP, 28.7 – Out of all of Baltimore’s fringy starting pitchers, Wells is my favorite. He’s 6’8”, 255 pounds with near elite control (6.6% BB%) and an above average whiff rate (25.1% whiff%). He throws a high spin 93.5 fastball to go along with 3 secondaries that all put up well above average xwOBA’s (slider-.283/change-.219/curve-.185). It all led to a 3.78 xERA (4.25 ERA) and a 1.14 WHIP in 103.2 IP. He has some injury risk as an oblique strain held him out for all of August, and then his season ended in September due to shoulder inflammation, but his price is likely to be dirt cheap this off-season. He’s going to be a target of mine everywhere. 2023 Projection: 10/3.95/1.18/138 in 150 IP

Bullpen

Felix Bautista BAL, Closer, 27.10 – Bautista’s control took a big step forward this year and it propelled him to the land of the elite. He dropped his BB/9 from 5.8 in the minors in 2021 to 3.2 in the majors in 2022. He throws a 99.2 MPH fastball to go along with a whiff inducing splitter (52.9% whiff%) and slider (42.5%). He put up a pitching line of 2.19/0.93/88/23 in 65.2 IP, and took over the full time closer job after Jorge Lopez got traded, notching 15 saves. Baltimore should provide him with plenty of saves opportunities next season. His lack of track record and name value should keep his price from completely exploding this off-season. 2023 Projection: 4/2.93/1.06/90/36 saves in 65 IP

Top 10 Baltimore Orioles Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS/3B, 21.9 – Nothing makes me more comfortable about a prospect than one who gets called up to the majors and immediately puts up elite exit velocity numbers. Henderson smacked the crap outta the ball to the tune of a 92.4/98.1 MPH AVG/FB EV in 132 MLB PA. That would almost be enough for me to love love a player on it’s own, a la Oneil Cruz, but Henderson does just about everything else well too. His hit tool improved majorly this year, dropping his K% from 30.1% in 2021 in mostly the lower minors, to 23.1% in 2022 in the upper minors. The improvements transferred to the majors with a very reasonable 26.6% whiff% and 25.8% K%. He’s put up high walk rates his entire career and he’s also very fast with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed. He’s almost a flawless prospect. 2023 Projection: 82/25/85/.262/.347/.473/14 Prime Projection: 106/32/102/.278/.383/.518/16

2) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.4 – Baseball is starting to feel like it is a hereditary monarchy, where all star games are passed down based on bloodlines like it’s the 1300’s. Jackson is the son of Matt, commander of the Armies of the North, General of the Felix Legions and loyal servant to the true emperor, Marcus Aurelius. Father to a murdered son. Husband to a murdered wife. And I will have my vengeance, in this life or the ne … my bad, lost myself there 🙂 … Like many plus bloodline kids, Jackson is an advanced hitter, and he combines that with plus athleticism and a plus power/speed combo. He truly wields the bat like it’s a samurai sword, gracefully killing the ball with a smooth and powerful lefty swing. He stepped right into pro ball and was far too advanced for rookie ball (220 wRC+ with a 6.1%/30.3% K%/BB% in 8 rookie ball games) before performing well in 12 games at Single-A (130 wRC+ with a 17.5%/26.3% K%/BB%). Druw Jones and Holliday are in a tier of their own on my First Year Player Draft Rankings. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 96/25/88/.278/.357/.491/14

3) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 23.5 – Rodriguez really shouldn’t be on this list. He should have graduated. But he did what pitching prospects do and missed 3 months with a lat strain. He was a bit rusty when he returned in September with a 4.12 ERA and 29/14 K/BB in 19.2 IP. He had a 2.09 ERA with a 80/14 K/BB in 56 IP at Triple-A before going down with the injury. When completely healthy he has plus control of a devastating 4 pitch mix, all of which have the potential to be at least plus. It’s true ace upside. He’s my #1 pitching prospect in baseball and is a good bet to break camp with the team. 2023 Projection: 10/3.73/1.22/161 in 150 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.15/1.05/240 in 200 IP

4) Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 23.0 – Cowser’s hit tool got exposed this year, putting up a 28.4% K% at High-A, 25.4% K% at Double-A, and 30.6% K% at Triple-A. It’s a little concerning considering that was supposed to be his best skill, but it’s not like he’s chopped liver everywhere else. He walked a ton with a 15% BB%, and he displayed an above average power/speed combo with 19 homers and 18 steals in 138 games. Even with the high strikeout rates he still put up a .278 BA. He showed more risk than optimal in 2022, but it was still a positive year overall with a .874 OPS. His strong across the board profile remains intact. 2023 Projection: 20/4/18/.248/.319/.405/4 Prime Projection: 85/20/77/.264/.343/.442/15

5) Connor Norby BAL, 2B, 22.10 – Norby must have been bored at High-A because he lifted off when he got to the upper minors. He put a 99 wRC+ in 48 games at High-A, a 158 wRC+ in 64 games at Double-A, and a 190 wRC+ in 9 games at Triple-A. It resulted in 29 dingers, 16 steals, and a 20.8%/10.1% K%/BB% in 121 games. It’s a do it all profile and it shouldn’t be long before he gets his first shot at the bigs. 2023 Projection: 58/14/61/.258/.324/.427/7 Prime Projection: 82/22/78/.275/.339/.450/10

6) DL Hall BAL, LHP, 24.7 – Hall’s had major control issues his entire career and it really didn’t take a step forward this year with a 14.2% BB% and 1.45 WHIP in 76.2 IP at Triple-A. His stuff is utter filth, so he can be effectively wild with a whiff inducing 96.2 MPH fastball to go along with a potentially plus slider, change, and curve. The stuff translated against MLB hitters with a 29.7%/9.4% K%/BB% in 13.2 IP mostly coming out the pen, albeit with a 5.93 ERA (2.57 ERA). Baltimore’s rotation is so weak at the moment, there is no reason they wouldn’t give him every opportunity to start, and he has legitimate ace upside if the control takes a step or two forward. 2023 Projection: 7/3.95/1.37/130 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.65/1.32/195 in 172 IP

7) Coby Mayo BAL, 3B, 21.4 – Mayo is a 6’5”, 215 pound power hitting bull with an electric, lightning quick swing. He drilled 19 homers in 104 games split between High-A and Double-A. His hit tool took a step back when he got to Double-A with it spiking to 34.5% in 34 games (21.5% at High-A), but he was only 20 and I don’t think he has major hit tool issues. He likely won’t hit for a high average in the majors, but he has legitimate 40 homer upside at peak. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 80/32/91/.256/.338/.515/6

8) Jordan Westburg BAL, SS, 24.1 – Wesburg’s power exploded this year, jacking 27 homers in 138 games split between Double-A and Triple-A after hitting 15 homers in 112 games in 2021. He’s a former 1st round pick who’s an excellent athlete at 6’3”, 203 pounds and has a mature plate approach with a 23.6%/11.3% K%/BB%. He was actually better at Triple-A (129 wRC+ in 91 games) than he was at Double-A (122 wRC+ in 47 games). He’s a big part of the season why I’m concerned Mateo ends up in a super utility role. 2023 Projection: 47/12/51/.246/.312/.408/6 Prime Projection: 74/24/79/.261/.328/.443/11

9) Kyle Stowers BAL, OF, 25.3 – Stowers seems to be the forgotten prospect in Baltimore, but his power hitting upside is very real. He cracked 19 homers in 95 games at Triple-A and then got called up to the majors and put up a 91.1 MPH EV with a 107 wRC+ in 98 PA. He’s a lefty that might actually hit lefties better than righties, so there isn’t major platoon risk. He only had a 92.6 MPH FB/LD EV, and there are hit tool concerns with a 29.6% K%, but he will be an excellent later round shot to take in the majority of dynasty leagues. 2023 Projection: 69/24/76/.242/.317/.448/2 Prime Projection: 75/28/84/.253/.326/.470/3

10) Jud Fabian BAL, OF, 22.6 – Selected 40th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Fabian’s hype almost completely disappeared after he decided to return to college for his senior year, even though he is still the same age as many juniors. His strong pro debut has people talking again though with a 1.070 OPS and 21/19 K/BB in 22 games at mostly Single-A. He did improve his swing and miss issues this year in college, but a .239 BA with a 22.3 K% isn’t exactly great. It’s a 3 true outcome slugger profile, except he has speed and defensive ability to go with it. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/26/74/.232/.315/.435/8

Just Missed

11) Dylan Beavers BAL, OF, 21.8

12) Heston Kjerstad BAL, OF, 24.2

13) Samuel Basallo BAL, C/1B, 18.8

14) Drew Rom BAL, LHP, 23.4

15) Darell Hernaiz BAL, SS, 21.8

16) Seth Johnson BAL, RHP, 24.6

17) Cade Povich BAL, LHP, 23.0

18) Hudson Haskin BAL, OF, 24.3

19) Joey Ortiz BAL, SS/2B, 24.9

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Last off-season I took part in a 20 team Dynasty Mock Draft over at Rotowire and went with the bold strategy of taking Bobby Witt and Julio Rodriguez with the 18th and 23rd overall picks. All of my top targets were off the board, and I wanted to come up with angle to give me a long term leg up against very savvy, tough competition. It definitely raised some eyes and got some push back. Needless to say, the strategy paid off as I now have two long term pillars to build around for years. The other players I was considering in that area (Betts, Yordan, Machado) all had excellent years too, so I’m not claiming to be some genius, but it’s a reminder that the true elite of the elite prospects deserve to be right in that conversation, and I wouldn’t hesitate to do the same thing with Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll this year. These guys have elite dynasty upside, and while it certainly adds more risk than going with a chalk pick, a little extra risk isn’t necessarily a bad thing when you’re trying to beat out 19 other owners.

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Boston Red Sox—Minnesota Twins—Washington Nationals

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Imaginary Brick Wall

Tag: Felix Bautista

Baltimore Orioles 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)