Gavin Stone – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on March 4, 2024March 4, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Spring Dynasty Baseball Rundown (3/4/24)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Spring Dynasty Baseball Rundown (3/4/24):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 1,000 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS (these get released on IBW in very late March, right before the season starts)
-TOP 500 2024 PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 132 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (+Target & Strategy Guide)
-POSITION BY POSTION TARGET ARTICLES
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-TOP 11+ 2025 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST
-ALL-IN-ONE RANKINGS SPREADSHEET

Zack Littell TBR, RHP, 28.6 – You have to be a damn fool to doubt Tampa in any way, and mama didn’t raise no fool. With Shane Baz announcing he is on a delayed schedule until “early to mid-season,” Littell looks locked into a rotation spot, and he’s now someone I’m going after everywhere. He went against essentially Minnesota’s real lineup yesterday and went 3 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER, and a 1/1 K/BB. He now has a 0.00 ERA with a 4/1 K/BB in 5 IP on the spring. The velocity was down a tick, but assuming he’s just easing into things, his 94+ MPH fastball in 2023 was actually already very good with with a strong .290 xwOBA and 21.8% whiff%. His control entered elite territory with a 3.2% BB%, and while his secondaries aren’t great, he added a sweeper to the arsenal in the 2nd half which was immediately his best secondary with a .247 xwOBA and 30% whiff%. He’s also been working on the now very popular splitter that he’s been incorporating into him arsenal more and more over the past couple years. If he really takes off with any of his secondaries, he’s going to be a major issue, and even if he doesn’t, double plus control of a good fastball will play. I mean, how many times does Tampa have to pull a rabbit of their hat for us to even stop questioning it even a little? Littell is currently going 344th overall in the NFBC and is going to be an afterthought in so many dynasty leagues. Easiest call ever is to grab this guy from the bargain bin in all league sizes.

Josue De Paula LAD, OF, 18.10 – I ranked Josue De Paula 6th overall in my Predicting the Top 50 2025 Prospects Rankings last week, writing, “Seeing Josue De Paula’s name is giving me visions of Scarface, directed by Brian De Palma, and all I can hear is “Say hello to my little friend.” That is what De Paula is going to be saying to minor league pitching as his power explodes in a major way. And combined with his elite approach, it’s going to be shades of Juan Soto all over again.” … And then right on cue he jacked out an opposite field homer off a sidearm lefty on a pitch that was in on his hands. One spring at bat, one homer. I wasn’t lying when I said we are about to see an explosion.

Erick Fedde CHW, RHP, 31.1 – We got our first look at Fedde and his reworked secondaries coming over from winning MVP in Korea, and if making Mike Trout look foolish on a slider is impressive to you, which it should be, I would say the secondaries looked impressive. He went 2 IP with 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 3/1 K/BB vs. LA’s real lineup, so he didn’t dominate, but seeing the swing and miss was the most important part after putting up a 16.4% K% in 2022. I’m not ready to reach for him, but I’ll still happily try to nab him slightly before the last couple rounds. If someone beats me to the punch, so be it.

Garrett Crochet CHW, LHP, 23.9 – Crochet might be the most exciting development out of Sox camp so far, and he pitched another crisp outing, going 2 IP with 0 hits, 0 ER, and a 3/0 K/BB. Here is he getting Trout looking for a called strike 3. Every Sox pitcher was eating off Trout yesterday. Crochet is rocking a windup that the Rockettes would be proud of, which shows off the athleticism, and he’s already hit 100 MPH this spring. He finally looks fully healthy coming off Tommy John surgery, and if Chicago was serious about using him the rotation, I don’t see how he’s not winning one of those jobs right now. He might be entering major target territory.

Juan Soto NYY, OF, 25.6 – 2 for 3 with a homer that showed off both his elite bat control and elite power. He now has a 2.616 OPS with 3 homers in 11 PA. The career year he was supposed to have in the shortened 2020 season, the one where he had the highest xwOBA in Statcast history (.475 xwOBA), is the one the baseball gods owe him over a full season in his contract year. He ranks 7th overall on my Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings (patreon), and 3rd overall on my Top 450 OBP Dynasty Rankings (patreon).

DL Hall MIL, LHP, 25.6 – 2 IP, 0 hits, 0 ER, 1/1 K/BB vs. some of Arizona’s real lineup. The fastball sat 95.4 MPH with a 29% whiff%, and he threw all 3 secondaries for called strikes. He then did a post game interview with a massive ball of chew in his mouth, which is exactly what a ballplayer should look like. He talked about pounding the zone and being economical with his pitches, which is exactly what he needs to do, because his nasty stuff will do the rest. He’s one of my favorite pitcher targets headed into 2024, and has been from before he even got traded.

Matt Manning DET, RHP, 26.2/Casey Mize DET, RHP, 26.11 – Manning went 3 IP, with 1 hit, 1 ER, and 4/0 K/BB, and Mize went 2 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 2/2 K/BB vs. half of the Yanks real lineup (including Judge and Soto). Manning and Mize both got a much needed infusion of velocity this spring with their fastballs up 2 MPH to 95.4 MPH. It’s actually eerie how identical that is. There must be something in the water out there in Detroit. It makes me more likely to take a flier on them, but they still aren’t in target territory, because beyond the fastball, their biggest issue is lack of a standout secondary, and I’m not sure you can claim either has found that yet even with the added velocity. Mize didn’t record a single whiff on a secondary and Manning put up a 33% on the slider which is solid, but nothing to write home about. Their values are on the way up, but I would still have some caution.

Jung Hoo Lee SFG, OF, 25.7 – It’s becoming quite clear that all of the skills are transferring over stateside. Lee went 1 for 2 with a steal and 0/1 K/BB, and is now slashing .455/.500/.818 with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 8.3%/8.3% K%/BB% in 12 PA. The high GB% is also transferring with a 60% GB%. He’s exactly who we thought he was. A .300/15/15 season is definitely within reach, and if he runs more than we think, that is where his fantasy upside will come from.

Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 24.0 – Cowser showed off some of that lift and pull with a 32 degree launch, 98 MPH homer off a Martin Perez 88.6 MPH fastball. Granted, I probably could turn around an 88 MPH fastball too (by probably, I mean 100% not), but especially with Camden Yard’s dimensions, he’s going to have to pull and lift the ball a lot more than he’s done in the minors if he wants to get to all of his power. This was his 3rd homer in 16 PA, and the first one that was pulled. Cowser continues to seem to be the odd man out, but he’s going to make it as tough as possible on Baltimore to make a decision, which is all you can ask of him.

Chris Sale ATL, LHP, 35.0 – 2.2 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 5/2 K/BB vs. the Phillies scrubs+Bohm. I mean just look at this utter filth from that arm angle. Is he kidding me? Safe to say the stuff is as good as ever. He had some velocity fluctuations last year, so I don’t think his freshness in spring means he can keep it up all season, but better to see him healthy and throwing filth than to be sitting low 90’s. Your guess is as good as mine as to if he can stay 100% healthy, but if he does, he’s going to rack up strikeouts no problem.

Kutter Crawford BOS, RHP, 28.0 – 3 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 4/0 K/BB vs. Toronto’s Quad-A+Kirk lineup. Here he is blowing the fastball by Davis Schneider. And I don’t say “blowing by” lightly. That is the textbook definition. Crawford was one of my favorite sleepers since I wrote the Boston Red Sox Team Report back in early December, but he’s had too much shine on his name recently, and you can’t really call him a sleeper anymore. I hope you were able to trade for him when I was hyping him early. He’s damn good, and everyone realizes it now.

Davis Schneider TOR, 2B, 25.2 – Kutter isn’t the only one blowing pitches by Schneider, as he went 1 for 3 with 2 K’s and now has a 50% K% in 14 PA. The 37.3% whiff% and 30.5% K% were the two majors reasons I preached caution on Schneider this off-season, and at the very least, this spring showing is not assuaging my concerns. I’m not against taking him if the price is right, I actually took him in the 3rd round of my 18 team off-season prospect draft because I need the 2B depth, but make sure the price is right.

Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 24.5 – 2 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 2/2 K/BB vs. about half of Pitt’s real lineup. Grayson wasn’t that great in his first outing either. It’s clear he’s far from mid-season form with the fastball down 1.5 MPH to 95.9 MPH and the slider down 2.6 MPH to 79.7 MPH. He’s also working on a new 2-seamer/sinker that he is trying to mix in. You obviously shouldn’t put much stock in this early spring performance, but it’s worth noting he wasn’t good in the first half of 2023 and didn’t find his rhythm until the 2nd half. If he does get off to a slow start this season, remember not to panic. He’ll find his stride eventually.

Rhett Lowder CIN, RHP, 22.1 – 2 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 0/1 K/BB vs. most of KC’s real lineup. We know Lowder is a safe college arm, but how much upside he’s going to have against MLB hitters is the question, and this outing definitely didn’t highlight that upside. He’s obviously just getting his feet wet, so it doesn’t mean much, but at the same time this is the first time we’re seeing him against that advanced competition, so I think it’s worth mentioning.

Nestor Cortes NYY, LHP, 29.4 – 4 IP, 1 hit, 1 ER, 3/1 K/BB vs. Detroit’s mostly backups lineup. Cortes’ 2023 season ended because of a shoulder injury, so the most important thing is to see him healthy, and he looks healthy. The fastball sat 92.4 MPH, up 0.8 MPH from last year, and he notched a 31% whiff% overall. The injury still adds future injury risk, but he looks ready to go for 2024.

Alejandro Kirk TOR, C, 24.9 – Kirk badly needs to find his power again after his EV tanked to 87.6 MPH in 2023, and his homer yesterday sure seems to indicate he may have found it. He crushed a bomb over the replica monster for his 2nd in 11 PA. Toronto’s lackluster off-season is good news for Kirk and Jansen, because they should each be able to find enough at bats to be in the startable catcher range for most leagues.

Gabriel Moreno ARI, C, 24.1 – Moreno’s playoff homer fest has continued into spring with him launching a 38 degree, 400 foot homer off Freddy Peralta for his first of spring. He still has a 66.7% GB% in 12 PA, and his 51.2% GB% was high in the playoffs too, so I don’t think the homer explosion is showing a change in approach. He’s going to be a really really good hitter, but I don’t think he’s going to hit for enough homer power to be an elite fantasy catcher.

Jeferson Quero MIL, C, 21.6 – Quero smashed his first spring homer on a 100.2 MPH shot he had to go down to get, showing off the bat control and power. I would be much higher on Quero if he wasn’t completely blocked, but he’s completely blocked with William Contreras in town, and I don’t think Milwaukee has any intention to trade him.

Gavin Stone LAD, RHP, 25.6 – 3 IP, 2 hit, 0 ER, 1/0 K/BB vs. a depleted Rockies lineup. My money is on Sheehan to take that final starter spot, and my money is on Sheehan long term as well to be the better pitcher, but that doesn’t mean I don’t think Stone will bounce back from a rough 2023. The changeup is legit, he fired off a few crisp breaking balls in this outing, and I trust the Dodgers to improve his fastball command. It’s a jampacked rotation with more talent on the way, so Stone isn’t guaranteed anything, but I do think he can be a good MLB starter. Just not one I’m targeting quite yet.

Jordan Hicks SFG, RHP, 27.7 – The Jordan Hicks experiment is not going smoothly in the early going. He had his 2nd rough outing, going 2.2 IP with 5 hits, 2 ER, and a 2/2 K/BB in 2.2 IP. He already talked about how he isn’t going to sit anywhere close to 100 MPH like he did out of the bullpen, which he obviously doesn’t need to to still have nasty stuff, but quite frankly, he wasn’t even all that dominant out of the bullpen with that level of stuff. He had a 1.36 WHIP last year. As a starter with less stuff, what kind of numbers do you think we will be looking at? I have a sneaking suspicion this might be a short lived experiment with Carson Whisenhunt and Mason Black knocking on the door, along with the Blake Snell rumors intensifying and Ray and Cobb coming off the IL at some point. As a high upside flier of course I get it, but I wouldn’t reach for him.

Caden Dana LAA, RHP, 20.4 – The 20 year old Dana is already in major league camp, which tells you how much LA loves this kid, or it tells you how barren their farm system is, but either way, he’s exciting. He handled his business against a rough (not in a good way) Chicago lineup, going 2 IP with 1 hit, 1 ER, and a 2/1 K/BB. He has a legit plus fastball/slider combo that is already doing damage against MLB vets. He’s set to fly up rankings in 2024.

Kevin Alcantara CHC, OF, 21.8 – The forgotten Unicorn smoothly and easily demolished a ball out of the deep center for his first spring homer. Alcantara gets some criticism for his swing getting out of sync, but that looked pretty damn synced up to me there. He’s also struck out 3 times in 8 PA and had a 33.3% K% in 5 games in his first taste of Double-A, so watching that K% will be super important.

Jonny Farmelo SEA, OF, 19.7 – Farmelo didn’t debut in 2023, so he wasn’t able to get the hype going like some of his other high school brethren, but he’s trying to make up for lost time. He showed off the legs yesterday ripping a ball down the line that he turned into a stand up triple. He’s now 2 for 4 with 2 K’s. That kind of speed from a 6’2”, 205 pound frame is so easy to dream on.

Cade Marlowe SEA, OF, 26.9 – I named Marlowe an “if he had playing time” target, and he showed why going deep off Yu Darvish for his first spring homer. But he still doesn’t have a playing time, which can make it hard to roster a guy like this. At the very least put him on your watch list and jump on him when he does get his shot, because he showed encouraging skills in his MLB debut in 2023. He was a plus defensive player, with plus speed (28.9 ft/sec sprint), an above average barrel% (7.3%), a 112 wRC+, a 12% BB%, and a not horrible 29.4% whiff% (despite a 33% K%). If he does work his way into playing time, he has a very intriguing fantasy profile, especially in OBP leagues.

Kyle Stowers BAL, OF, 26.3 – If Cowser can’t find a job, I don’t know how Stowers is going to be able to do it. I’m doing my darndest to not get sucked back into Stowers, but it’s hard not to when I still firmly believe he can be an MLB masher if given the chance. He cracked a 101.8 MPH single today and now has a 1.308 OPS with 3 homers in 16 PA on the spring. He crushed 17 homers with a 93.8 MPH EV in just 68 games at Triple-A in 2023. I just can’t trust Baltimore to ever give him a chance if history is any indication, and they have more highly touted guys than him blocked.

Estiven Florial CLE, OF, 26.5 – I like Florial as a late round dart throw as much as the next guy, but there is a reason the Yanks gave him away for peanuts. He went 0 for 3 with 3 K’s yesterday and is now hitting .077 with a 50% K% in 16 PA. The Yanks seemed certain the hit tool wasn’t going to play, and so far, it’s not playing.

Nolan Schanuel LAA, 1B, 22.1 – This is your regularly scheduled Nolan Schanuel power check … 1 for 3 with a single. He’s now 6 for 19 with 6 singles, which is good for a .316 BA and .316 SLG. New year, same guy …

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on February 23, 2024February 23, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Spring Training Opening Day Dynasty Baseball Rundown

As usual, I’m doing Dynasty Baseball Rundowns all Spring, with most of them coming on the Patreon, and a few coming on the Brick Wall like this one (usually on Monday’s, but I’ll make an exception for Spring Training Opening Day). Along with the Rundowns, I have the Top 10 2025 FYPD Rankings, Predicting the Top 50 2025 Prospects Rankings, and an only 2024 Prospects Rankings coming soon on the Patreon. Plus so much more that is already up there, but first, here is the Spring Training Opening Day Dynasty Baseball Rundown:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON & SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 1,000 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 500 2024 PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 132 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (+Target & Strategy Guide)
-POSITION BY POSTION TARGET ARTICLES
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST
-ALL-IN-ONE RANKINGS SPREADSHEET

Yuki Matsui SDP, Closer Committee, 28.5 – And our first Spring Training hype train has officially left the station. Matsui struck out the rusty Gavin Lux coming off major knee surgery with his career .587 OPS vs. lefties, followed up by doing the same to journeyman Chris Owings and his fearsome .650 career OPS, and then finally victimized the rusty Andy Pages coming off major shoulder surgery and his total of 4 PA above Double-A. What’s next, does Matsui want to strikeout my 72 year old father coming off double hip surgery? Then I’ll really be impressed. I’m only half kidding, because there is no denying he looked absolutely filthy out there. The lack of huge velocity doesn’t look like it’s going to be a problem, although crowning him after facing competition that was probably worse than he faced in Japan seems silly. Let’s see him against some legit MLB bats before we hand him the closer job, but having said that, if I’m Robert Suarez, I’m realizing I’m going to have to go out there and win that job. Considering one is a lefty and one is a righty, we seem headed for the dreaded committee right now.

Gavin Lux LAD, 2B/OF, 26.4 – Speaking of Gavin Lux, he genuinely looked completely lost up there vs Matsui, and looking at that career .587 OPS vs. lefties, I might be questioning how long LA is going to throw him out there vs. them. He got a base knock going back up the middle vs. a righty, and went 1 for 2 with a 1/1 K/BB on the day, so it was a good first game back overall, but it would be nice to see some decent at bats versus lefties this spring, or else I think he’s headed for a strong side of a platoon role.

Luis Campusano SDP, C, 25.6 – Luis Campusano’s new batting stance looks like the one they forced on the worst kid on your little league baseball team. He’s choked up halfway up the bat, which he combined with an open face stance and an insane leg kick. He literally never sets into hitting position before the pitch is thrown. He does a balancing act on one leg mid pitch to straighten out his body. I’ve never seen anything like it quite frankly. I already wasn’t super high on Camp, and this just cements my stance that he is not one of the young catchers I’m going after. I’m staying far away.

Joe Musgrove SDP, RHP, 31.4 – Me and Musgrove both pitched 0.0 innings in this game, but I didn’t give up a single earned run. Musgrove gave up 4 earned runs with 2 hits, 1 walk and 0 K’s. Especially for a vet like Musgrove, your first spring training outing is meaningless, but considering his 2023 season ended with a shoulder injury, it would have been nice to see him looking better than this. Obviously it’s way way way too early to panic, but if you were hoping to check off the “Musgrove looks completely healthy” box early in spring, you are going to have to wait.

Jackson Merrill SDP, SS, 20.11 – San Diego had Merrill out in LF, and there is talk of him breaking camp as their starting left fielder. There is nothing MLB teams love more than having a guy play one position his entire career, and then right as they are about to face the biggest challenge of their baseball lives, just throw them in a completely new position like a fish out of water. It’s mind boggling to me. If you didn’t think he was going to play SS for you on the MLB level, why wasn’t he given a shitload more time working on his ultimate position in the minors? Getting used to a new position (especially going from SS to LF) takes time and experience. It’s insane to move someone off their lifelong position right as they are about to get called up to the majors. And it’s a great way to get someone hurt. He didn’t look bad out there, and he’s a great athlete so I don’t think he’s going to be a bumbling fool at the position, but here he is making an awkward diving catch. I honestly don’t know if that play should impress me, or concern me. Here he is taking a circuitous route to catch a ball hit over his head. He made the play, but not pretty.

Andy Pages LAD, OF, 23.4 – Pages looks completely healthy coming off the shoulder surgery, and he smoked a ball the opposite way for his first spring hit, going 1 for 3 with 2 K’s on the day. He’s on his way to getting his hype back rolling, and he’s also on the precipice of a callup when LA needs OF reinforcements.

Gavin Stone LAD, RHP, 25.6 – Stone is ready to bounce back from a poor 2023, and he took the first step throwing a perfect inning with 1 K. The changeup is in mid-season form and he was hitting his spots with his fastball. He only attempted one slider, and it was a horrific, dinky hanger. It might be tough for him to really thrive against MLB hitters without a good breaking ball, and based on that one pitch, he hasn’t perfected it yet.

Ethan Salas SDP, C, 17.10 – The 17 year old Ethan Salas is in camp with the big league club, and he struck out in each of his 2 at bats. Is this just child abuse at this point? Why is San Diego so hellbent on rushing this literal underage child to the big leagues? Aren’t there labor laws on the books for something like this? Or does San Diego know he’s secretly already 25 years old or something? That would at least make it make sense.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on December 18, 2023January 3, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Los Angeles Dodgers 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I like to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team, and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Los Angeles Dodgers 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100+ COMING SOON)
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Arizona Diamondbacks–Baltimore Orioles (free)–Boston Red Sox (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Oakland Athletics–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

The Tampa Bay Rays must subscribe to my Patreon, because I named Ryan Pepiot a Top 10 Early Off-Season Dynasty Baseball Target back on September 26th, and the Rays went out and got him for Tyler Glasnow. The Rays are an organization that almost has to trade their studs when they are in the last year of team control, especially an injury prone pitcher, but targeting Pepiot tells you everything you need to know about him. Like me, they think he can be a legitimate impact starter. This trade likely raises his profile too high to still get great value on him, but I also like targeting him at his fair value.

Pitchers

Emmet Sheehan LAD, RHP, 24.5 – Sheehan didn’t have a standout MLB debut with a 4.92 ERA and a 25.8%/10.5% K%/BB% in 60.1 IP, but some of the underlying data is extremely encouraging. Most notably, his 3 secondary pitches were absolutely devastating. The slider put up a .179 xwOBA with a 43.8% whiff%, the changeup put up a .200 xwOBA with a 47.6% whiff%, and the very lightly used sweeper put up a .161 xwOBA with a 41.2% whiff%. His heavily used 95.4 MPH fastball was solid as well with a respectable 20.2% whiff%. His 3.50 xERA looks much better than the surface stats, and he also closed the year out in dominant fashion with a 1.98 ERA and 24/4 K/BB in 13.2 IP over 3 outings. His control is below average, but it’s never really been in the major danger zone, so I wouldn’t downgrade him too much because of that. And how could you not trust the Dodgers to unlock his full potential in the long run. He showed no joke ace upside in his rookie year, and considering he currently has a NFBC ADP of 249, that tells me he isn’t getting nearly the respect he deserves this off-season. 2024 Projection: 9/3.72/1.23/158 in 145 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.52/1.18/210 in 175 IP

Bobby Miller LAD, RHP, 25.0 – Miller’s humongous stuff unsurprisingly transferred to the big leagues with a very strong rookie year. He put up a 3.76 ERA with a 23.6%/6.3% K%/BB% in 124.1 IP. He threw a 5 pitch mix and all of the pitches were good. The 99.1 MPH 4-seamer and 98.7 MPH sinker were both plus, and all 3 of his off-speed pitches missed bats (curve-36% whiff%/change-39.9%/slider-29.2% whiff%). He established a very high floor for himself. The 23.6% K% was modest, but the 6.3% BB% is very encouraging, and seeing the whiff rates on his secondaries tells me there could easily be more swing and miss in the tank. As opposed to Sheehan, Miller’s getting a ton of respect this off-season with a NFBC ADP of 81, so you’re probably one year too late if you are looking to buy him. He has top of the rotation upside and everyone knows it now. 2024 Projection: 12/3.52/1.18/165 in 160 IP

Hitters

James Outman LAD, OF, 26.10 – Outman has a plus power/speed combo with extreme hit tool risk, but I’m concerned the power/speed combo isn’t quite big enough to stick your neck out for considering the risk. He hit 23 homers with a 87.9/91.8 MPH AVG/FB EV, and he stole 16 bags in 567 PA. Good, but not great, and the swing and miss is in the danger zone with a 31.9% K% and 36.6% whiff%. He also struggles vs. lefties with a .665 OPS, giving him platoon risk. He’s a well above average defensive centerfielder, and he still got on base vs. lefties (.357 OBP), so the skills are there to play nearly everyday even if the BA dips. It was also only his rookie year and he managed a .248 BA (.228 xBA), so I’m certainly not down on him, but it’s the type of profile I would want to fall into my lap, rather than one I’m truly going after. 2024 Projection: 81/25/72/.239/.338/.440/15

Miguel Vargas LAD, 2B, 24.4 – It feels like eons ago since Miguel Vargas was considered a near elite prospect, but that was just last off-season. What scared everyone off is that he pulled a Gavin Lux on us with extremely underwhelming homer/steal totals (7 homers and 3 steals in 304 MLB PA), and he also only hit .195 despite a strong 20.1%/12.5% K%/BB%. He was then sent back down to the minors on July 8th and never saw the MLB field again. Vargas had his chance and failed to lock in a full time MLB role, and now he’s going to have to fight for his playing time. Betts is locked in at 2B, Muncy is at 3B, Freeman is at 1B, and Ohtani is at DH. He’s a bench bat until an injury happens or Muncy leaves in free agency after the 2024 season. Despite the poor rookie season, he still showed the skills to breakout in the future with his aforementioned strong plate approach, 16.6 degree launch, decent 6% Barrel%, and above average 27.9 ft/sec sprint. He crushed Triple-A again too. He’s just going to have to wait his turn to get another full time shot. 2024 Projection: 39/10/36/.251/.329/.418/7 Prime Projection: 84/24/79/.267/.346/.451/13

Bullpen

Evan Phillips LAD, Closer, 29.7 – Josh Hader is the only one who could rain on Phillips’ parade. The Dodgers seem like a very possible landing spot for Hader, and he would almost certainly slot directly into the full time closer role. That makes Phillips a bit risky to go after too hard until Hader officially signs somewhere, but if Phillips does keep the job, he is in at least the 2nd tier of closers. He took over LA’s undisputed closer role by late June, and he earned it with a 2.05 ERA and 28.2%/5.6% K%/BB% in 61.1 IP. He has an elite sweeper (.195 xwOBA with a 42.1% whiff%), a double plus 96.4 MPH fastball (.279 xwOBA with a 30.8% whiff%), a 95.5 MPH sinker that keeps the ball on the ground (negative 1 degree launch), and a solid 93.1 MPH cutter. It’s his 2nd year in a row of dominance, and his control is now in the near elite range. Just keep Hader away from him. 2024 Projection: 4/2.89/0.98/72/30 saves in 63 IP

Los Angeles Dodgers Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Josue De Paula LAD, OF, 18.10 – De Paula’s stateside debut wasn’t perfect, and it wasn’t the true explosion we were all hoping for, but it was still impressive when taking everything into account. The Dodgers showed how much they loved him by skipping him straight over stateside rookie ball, and he didn’t only hold his own against much older competition, his plate approach and hit tool were actually extremely mature with a 17.9%/13.5% K%/BB%, .284 BA, and 118 wRC+ in 74 games at Single-A. At a broad, athletic, and projectable 6’3”, 185 pounds with a sweet lefty swing, establishing this level of plate skills is relatively rare and exciting. Usually with these toolsy prospects we have to worry about the hit tool tanking them, but not with Josue. He hit only 2 homers, which is extremely low, so I’m not just going to hand wave it away, but he didn’t hit the ball particularly weakly, and he obviously made zero attempts to sell out for power. The raw power will certainly continue to tick up, which will make for a dangerous combination with his plate skills once it does. He’s not a burner, but he’s a good base runner with 14 steals in 17 attempts. Josue is taking the Juan Soto path, and the off-season after Soto’s 18 year old season were when the biggest trade mistakes were made with Soto (not saying he will be as good as Soto because Soto was even better in a shortened 18 year old season at Single-A). Stay patient on the explosion. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 88/24/81/.278/.352/.475/12

2) Joendry Vargas LAD, SS, 18.5 – Vargas is basically Josue De Paula 2.0. It’s almost like the Dodgers are especially good at this developing baseball players thing. He’s a projectable and athletic 6’4”, 175 pounds, earning him one of the top international signing bonuses last off-season, and he had a great season in the DSL, slashing .328/.423/.529 with 7 homers, 19 steals, and a 14.9%/14.4% K%/BB% in 48 games. All of the ingredients are there for him to explode to elite prospect status in the next few years with at least plus power potential, plus athleticism, and plus plate skills. Get in on him now before the mainstream prospect lists start blowing him up next season. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 81/26/86/.268/.341/.481/13

3) Gavin Stone LAD, RHP, 25.6 – Stone had a truly horrific MLB debut with a 9.00 ERA and 14.5%/8.6% K% in 31 IP, but I’m trying not to panic. We only have to look at Brandon Pfaadt to be reminded to keep our heads when a top pitching prospect gets demolished in their debut. Pfaadt is just one of many examples (Jose Berrios immediately comes to mind as well). If you’re looking for silver linings, his stuff did a solid job of missing bats with his changeup putting up a 41.4% whiff%, his slider putting up a 40% whiff%, and his 4-seamer putting up a 23.5% whiff%. His stuff didn’t even get hit insanely hard either with a merely below average 8.7% barrel%. It certainly wasn’t a good year with his fastball velocity taking a step back to 94 MPH, and he wasn’t great at Triple-A either with a 4.74 ERA in 100.2 IP, but I think the prudent thing to do is to look at this year as a developmental bump in the road, rather than a true disaster. His value takes a hit, but you certainly shouldn’t be close to throwing in the towel on him. 2024 Projection: 5/4.25/1.32/96 in 100 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.88/1.26/173 in 165 IP

4) Dalton Rushing LAD, C/1B, 23.1 – If Robo Umps come to the majors in the future, it will take framing away as a catcher skill, but blocking balls in the dirt and throwing out runners on the bases will still be super important, so I wouldn’t assume catcher defense will just be thrown to the curb. On that note, Rushing isn’t a particularly good defensive catcher, so it puts a lot of pressure on his bat to max out. He was far too advanced for High-A with a 146 wRC+ on the back of a .404 OBP in 89 games, as an advanced 22 year old college bat should be, but the 15 homers, .228 BA, and 24.4% K% aren’t quite as impressive. His numbers likely would have been better if he didn’t suffer a concussion from a getting hit by a backswing in June, but not sure that is necessarily a point in his favor for fantasy. Catchers take a beating, which is why you should generally downgrade them. The bat is good enough to profile in a 1B/DH/backup catcher role, but it just makes playing time tougher to come by and the leash much shorter. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/25/81/.253/.339/.458/2

5) Michael Busch LAD, 2B/3B, 26.4 – Ohtani locking down the DH spot is not great for Busch. He’s a poor defensive player who hits righties much better than lefties, so that DH spot was going to be his saving grace. Not anymore. He had a terrible MLB debut with a 49 wRC+ in 81 PA, and while there is some Quad-A slugger risk, he was utterly dominant at Triple-A (150 wRC+, 27 homers, 18.8%/13.9% K%/BB% in 98 games), so I wouldn’t panic too much over the debut. A trade would be the best thing for him, but LA could use a big bench bat, so I don’t think they are in any rush to move him. He’s stuck in opportunity limbo right now, and it might take until his late 20’s to lock in a near full time role. 2024 Projection: 21/7/25/.238/.321/.431/1 Prime Projection: 67/20/75/.251/.339/.467/3

6) Andy Pages LAD, OF, 23.4 – Out of sight, out of mind rules the prospect world, but Pages has the skills and opportunity to fight that instinct. He tore his labrum on a swing in mid May and missed the rest of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery. He was in the midst of having another excellent season (all he’s done in his career is have excellent seasons) with a 144 wRC+ in 33 games at Double-A. He has plus power with extremely low groundball rates (23.8%), and he combines that with a plus plate approach (22.5%/17.6% K%/BB%). He has some hit tool risk, especially with the extreme launch, but his strikeout rates have generally stayed out of the danger zone over his career. The Dodgers also don’t have much close to the majors OF depth with Outman, Jason Heyward, Chris Taylor, and Manuel Margot currently penciled into their OF slots. Pages can definitively kick the door down in 2024 assuming he returns to full health. 2024 Projection: 18/6/22/.223/.307/.431/2 Prime Projection: 82/28/84/.241/.335/.466/9

7) Eduardo Quintero LAD, OF, 18.7 – Quintero was one of the top DSL breakouts, and is arguably THE top DSL breakout with a 180 wRC+ that led all qualified age appropriate 17 year olds. He slashed .359/.472/.618 with 5 homers, 22 steals, and a 16%/15.1% K%/BB% in 49 games. He doesn’t have De Paula or Vargas’ obvious projectable size, but he’s not small at 6’0”, 175 pounds, and he’s an electric athlete with plus speed and at least above average power potential. DSL stats have to be taken with some level of restraint, so when I truly stick my neck out for a DSL breakout, they optimally have that prototypical size and pedigree, but if you aren’t as concerned with that, Quintero has a real case to be valued equally to, or even higher than Vargas. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 83/20/77/.265/.336/.448/22

8) Kyle Hurt LAD, RHP, 25.10 – All signs point towards LA deploying Hurt as a multi inning bullpen weapon in the near future. He reached 5 IP in only 4 of 26 upper minors outings, and he was already 25 years old for most of the 2023 season. His 92 IP this year was a career high. The profile also plays in shorter outings with below average control (11.3% BB%) of two plus to double plus pitches in his 95.5 MPH 4-seamer and 87.1 MPH changeup. It led to an insane 39.2% K%. He throws a decent slider and curve, so it’s not impossible for him to end up a starter, but neither misses a ton of bats. In shallower leagues, his likely middle innings role could make it hard to roster him, but in medium to deeper leagues, he’s good enough to make a real impact out of the bullpen, and he can certainly end up in the rotation if injuries open up a spot for him. 2024 Projection: 5/3.78/1.30/99 in 85 IP Prime Projection: 8/3.55/1.26/150 in 130 IP

9) Diego Cartaya LAD, C, 22.7 – Cartaya’s hit tool issues came to the forefront at Double-A with a .189 BA and 29%/9.2% K%/BB% in 93 games. A lot of that was back luck with a .216 BABIP, but it certainly wasn’t all bad luck. He was only 21 years old in the upper minors, so I would expect improvement in the future, but the hit tool is definitely a risk. The power isn’t a risk as the 6’3”, 220 slugger smacked 19 homers with a 31.6% GB%. Cartaya didn’t have the elite fantasy catcher explosion that we were hoping for in 2023, but his big power, low BA profile remains intact. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 64/26/72/.237/.321/.462/1

10) Thayron Liranzo LAD, C, 20.9 – Liranzo was one of the top breakout catcher prospects in 2023 on the back of at least double plus power. He slashed .272/.400/.562 with 24 homers and a 26.8%/16.7% K%/BB% in 94 games at Single-A. He’s a big boy at a thick 6’3” and he hits the ball tremendously hard from both sides of the plate (he’s better as a lefty). He’s not a great defensive catcher, the hit tool is still a risk, and LA is stacked at catcher up and down their organization, but Liranzo still seems underrated and underhyped to me considering the destruction he just laid in 2023. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 68/28/81/.242/.328/.464/3

11) Nick Frasso LAD, RHP, 25.6 – When everything is clicking, Frasso looks like a near ace at an athletic 6’5” with a deceptive righty delivery, fire stuff, and above average control. But everything isn’t always clicking for him as he ran extremely hot and cold this year, his stuff can be up and down, he’s been very injury prone in his career, and 93 IP was a career high by far (60 IP was previous career high in 2018). He throws a mid 90’s fastball with a plus slider and a changeup that flashes plus. It was good for a 3.77 ERA and 26.8%/7.8% K%/BB% in 93 IP at mostly Double-A. His ultimate role is still very much in the air, and in an organization that grows pitching prospects on trees and can sign/acquire high priced pitchers whenever they want, a bullpen role seems likely in the first couple years of his career. 2024 Projection: 3/4.39/1.34/58 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 9/3.91/1.28/150 in 140 IP

12) River Ryan LAD, RHP, 25.8 – Ryan’s numbers don’t exactly jump off the screen with a 3.90 ERA and 24.6%/10.3% K%/BB% in 104.1 IP at mostly Double-A, but his stuff most certainly does with a mid to upper 90’s fastball and plus slider leading the way. He also throws a curve and changeup that both have plus potential. He has a repeatable and athletic righty delivery at 6’2”, 195 pounds, and he doesn’t have a ton of experience starting, so there might be more upside in here than your typical 25 year old. A mid-rotation starter is probably his most reasonable upside projection, but he has a bit more upside than your typical “mid-rotation upside” starter. 2024 Projection: 2/4.48/1.35/54 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.95/1.28/150 in 150 IP

13) Hyun-Seok Jang LAD, RHP, 20.0 – When the Dodgers aggressively go after somebody (they made a trade for international moola right before signing Jang), you take notice, and you also jump aboard knowing how good they are at development. The 6’4”, 200 pound Jang was expected to be the #1 overall pick in the Korea League Draft before signing with LA, and after watching every video I could find of him, it’s very easy to see why. His stuff is genuinely explosive with a plus to double plus 4 pitch mix. He throws a mid 90’s fastball that rockets out of his hand, a knee buckling curve that looks like it could be double plus, a plus slider, and a potentially plus change. He is also way mature beyond his years on the mound with an athletic delivery and good control. I think he has legit ace upside and isn’t going to be ranked even close to where he deserves to be. Go after Jang hard in first year player drafts, and I’m tempted to go even higher on him, but you likely won’t have to reach too far to grab him in your drafts based on his current hype. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 13/3.56/1.18/185 in 170 IP

14) Kendall George LAD, OF, 19.5 – Selected 36th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, George is a pure speed play. He has 80 grade speed with legitimately elite run times. He also makes a ton of contact and is a plus defensive centerfielder. That profile will play on the major league level, and it certainly played in the lower minors, slashing .370/.458/.420 with 0 homers, 17 steals, and a 20/17 K/BB in 28 games split between rookie and Single-A. He has below average power with extremely high groundball rates, and while it does project to tick up from here, it’s not expected to be a major part of his game. He’s the high school version of Enrique Bradfield. . ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 84/10/52/.284/.348/.390/41

15) Trey Sweeney LAD, SS, 23.11 – The ingredients seem to be in here for a legit breakout, which is obviously part of the reason LA traded for him. Sweeney has a plus plate approach (19.1%/13.8% K%/BB%), good raw power at 6’2”, 212 pounds, low groundball rates (32.9% GB%), and while he’s not a burner, he clearly has some base stealing skills (20 steals). He’s also a decent defensive SS. It was good for a 118 wRC+ in 100 games at Double-A. He hasn’t been able to fully tap into his raw power yet with only 13 homers and a very low hard hit rate. The lack of squaring up the baseball has also led to a mediocre BA (.252 BA). He also struggled mightily vs lefties with a .560 OPS. The Dodgers organizational SS depth is surprisingly weak right now, so Sweeney immediately becomes their 2nd best long term SS option behind Gavin Lux. He might never be anything but a below average MLB hitter, but the move to LA gives him both a developmental and opportunity bump. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 68/18/62/.248/.324/.429/11

16) Jake Gelof LAD, 3B, 22.1 – Selected 60th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Gelof has the baseball bloodlines with his older brother, Zack, breaking out in the majors this year. Jake is a thick 6’1”, 200 pounds with a powerful righty swing that is made to hit dingers. He popped 21 homers in 2022 and then followed that up with a 23 homer season in 2023. That continued in pro ball with him cracking 6 homers in 30 games at mostly Single-A. It might not be truly elite power, but it’s easy plus power. He has below average speed, and there is hit tool risk too which already reared it’s ugly head with a .225 BA and 29.9 K% at Single-A, but we’ve seen the Gelof’s thrive with high K rates (hello, Zack) You are buying the power here, and after getting drafted by the Dodgers, you are also buying the great developmental organization. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 74/27/83/.243/.326/.468/6

Just Missed

16) Payton Martin LAD, RHP, 19.10

17) Justin Wrobleski LAD, LHP, 23.8

18) Jose Ramos LAD, OF, 23.3

19) Jeral Perez LAD, 2B/3B/SS, 19.5 – Perez’ destruction of rookie ball (11 homers with a 120 wRC+ in 53 games) earned him a promotion to Single-A where he more than held his own with a 118 wRC+ and 22.2%/18.5% K%/BB% in 7 games. He doesn’t necessarily jump off the screen with a thick and stocky build, and he’s not a huge tools guy, but he’s done nothing but produce at every level, including the DSL in 2022 (130 wRC+). He has a mature plate approach, he lifts the ball, and he’s in a great organization, so he should be able to get the most of his talent. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 66/19/74/.245/.323/.430/8

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

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-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
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Posted on November 28, 2022December 9, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Los Angeles Dodgers 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Los Angeles Dodgers 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 43 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100 COMING LATER IN THE OFF-SEASON)
-A TOP 150 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: TOP 68 C//TOP 95 1B
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
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Starting Pitchers

Dustin May LAD, RHP, 25.7 – May returned from Tommy John surgery in late August, and while he wasn’t able to seamlessly pick up from his 2021 breakout, he showed the ingredients to get back there in 2023. He continued to throw the 97.2 MPH sinker much less in favor of his 98.1 MPH 4 seamer and secondaries (curve, cutter, change), which drove his 2021 breakout. The improved whiff% remained with a strong 29.7% whiff%, and he kept the ball on the ground as always with a 4.7 degree launch. Control is often the last thing to come back after returning from Tommy John, and that proved true for May as he had a career worst by a mile 11% BB%, which led to the poor 4.50 ERA in 30 IP. He’s had plus to elite control his entire career though, so I would be shocked if that didn’t bounce back in 2023. You have one last off-season to buy into May, because he’s headed for a monster 2023. He ranked 62nd overall on A Top 104 Sneak Peek of the 2023 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings over on Patreon. 2023 Projection: 12/3.32/1.08/160 in 150 IP

Tony Gonsolin LAD, RHP, 28.11 – Gonsolin was one of my biggest, if not my biggest hit of 2022. I hyped him to death all off-season with him going for a sweetheart price, and he exploded with near ace numbers, putting up a pitching line of 2.14/0.86/119/35 in 130.1 IP. A forearm injury knocked him out for all of September, but he was able to return before the end of the season. He throws a 93.1 MPH fastball with 3 plus secondaries in his splitter, slider, and curve. It led to an above average 23.9%/7.0% K%/BB%. His 3.12 xERA is likely more representative of his true talent level, but he now has a career 2.51 ERA over 4 seasons (272.2 IP). He’ll regress in 2023, but there’s no reason he won’t continue to be a damn good pitcher in one of the best organizations in the game. 2023 Projection: 13/3.42/1.12/148 in 155 IP

Hitters

Gavin Lux LAD, 2B, 25.4 – Lux seems to be afflicted with the curse of Starlin Castro. A once elite prospect who doesn’t bust, but becomes just another guy. He put up a measly 6 homers with 7 steals in 471 PA. His .276 BA was one of the few things he did well, but you can’t even truly count on that as his xBA was .247. The frustrating part it is that the skills that made him an elite prospect are still there. He has an above average plate approach (20.2%/10% K%/BB%) with plus speed (28.9 ft/sec sprint) and some pop (93.3 MPH FB/LD EV). He’s been an average MLB hitter in his age 21-24 year old seasons with a .316 xwOBA (MLB average is .315). The problem is that it hasn’t translated to fantasy success, and unless he starts running a whole lot more out of nowhere (which is possible), going out of your way to acquire Lux would likely be factoring in too much of his former prospect hype. We have to value him as he is, not as we hoped he would be, which is a better real life hitter than fantasy who does still have some upside. 2023 Projection: 76/14/63/.268/.337/.413/14

Max Muncy LAD, 3B/2B, 32.7 – It’s pretty clear Muncy deserves a pass for his rough season. He came into the year with a torn UCL that was not fully healed, and it led to a .613 OPS in his first 83 games. It was obvious when he started to fell better though. By August and September he was back to his old tricks, slashing .247/.358/.500 with 12 homers and a 56/31 K/BB in his final 53 games. I have to imagine another full off-season away from the injury will only help further. He’s an easy buy for a win now team. Use the down year and advanced age to nab one of the premier power bats in the game for what is sure to be a very reasonable price. That goes doubly in OBP leagues. 2023 Projection: 89/32/88/.243/.361/.502/2

Cody Bellinger FRA, OF, 27.9 – Bellinger technically did bounce back, well, maybe not bounce back, but he bounced, from a .542 OPS in 2021 to a .654 OPS in 2022, which is obviously not what we were hoping for. He continued to hit the ball in the air a ton (20.3 degree launch) with a weak 92.3 MPH EV FB/LD EV, and it led to a .210 BA (.213 xBA). He put up 95+ MPH FB/LD EV’s in 2017-2019. His Max EV’s tell the same tale, with it going from 112.8 MPH in 2017 to 107.3 MPH in 2022. His loss of power is almost biblical, Samson style. There one day, gone the next. Even his formerly great plate approach has been shattered to pieces with a 27.3%/6.9% K%/BB%. The shoulder injury seems to be a pretty clear demarcation of when it really fell apart. Maybe the league was starting to figure him out a bit too. Either way, everything is trending in the wrong direction, and the Dodgers non tendering him this off-season really drives the point home on how far he’s fallen. 2023 Projection: 76/23/74/.227/.308/.421/15

Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 30.6 – It’s clear that Betts is entering the back nine of his career, but a superstar talent like this has some tricks in their bag to slow that decline. He cranked a career high 35 homers in 142 games, and he did it by jumping on the first pitch 30.4% of the time, which is a career high by far (19.1% in 2021). The signs of decline could be seen with his sprint speed not bouncing back from an injury filled 2021, and he now has very slightly below average speed (49th percentile). His 14 steal attempts were a career low (other than the shortened 2020). His BA didn’t bounce back either, sitting at .269, and his xBA is saying it isn’t a fluke (.254 xBA). The adjustments Betts’ is making gives hope he can maintain elite, or near elite levels for a few more years, but it’s hard to completely ignore the red flags that have popped up here and there. 2023 Projection: 110/30/78/.277/.351/.527/14

Top 10 Los Angeles Dodgers Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Miguel Vargas LAD, 3B, 23.4 – Vargas made his MLB debut in 2022 and while he only put up a .455 OPS in 50 PA, there is nothing I love more than seeing rookies hit the ball hard. He had a well above average 89.7/94.1 MPH AVG/FB EV. He’s also much faster than advertised with a 29.3 ft/sec sprint speed which in the top 6% of the league. He had no trouble lifting the ball with a 25.7 degree launch angle and has no swing and miss issues with an average 24.3% whiff%. His elite plate approach at Triple-A (14.6%/13.7% K%/BB%) shows better days are likely ahead there too. Speaking of Triple-A, he slashed .304/.304/.511 with 17 homers and 16 steals in 113 games. He’s currently the favorite to be LA’s starting 3B in 2023, and the numbers indicate this guy has star potential. 2023 Projection: 72/21/75/.258/.327/.445/11 Prime Projection: 93/27/87/.272/.345/.483/15

2) Bobby Miller LAD, RHP, 24.0 – Miller is 6’5”, 220 pounds with ace level stuff. He throws a fastball that sits in the upper 90’s, a filthy upper 80’s changeup that gets about 10 MPH separation from the fastball, and a plus slider (he mixes in a good curve too). His 4.25 ERA in 112.1 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A was surprisingly underwhelming considering the stuff. Part of it is because his fastball is relatively hittable, and while he doesn’t have major control problems, he’s no Greg Maddux. The delivery isn’t super athletic either. The other part of it is likely bad luck as his 30.5%/8.1% K%/BB% and 3.47 xFIP at Double-A looks much better than the 4.45 ERA he put up at the level. He has ace upside, and with the Dodgers’ pitching development prowess, mid-rotation might be his floor. Don’t be surprised if he wins that 5th rotation spot straight out of camp, and while the Dodgers could easily sign a vet, they have enough holes to fill on offense I think they might leave the spot open for a young gun. 2023 Projection: 8/3.85/1.26/122 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.48/1.18/202 in 180 IP

3) Gavin Stone LAD, RHP, 24.6 – Stone put up a miniscule 1.48 ERA in 121.2 IP spread across 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA), and he thoroughly dominated each level equally with his 1.16 ERA in 23.1 IP at Triple-A being his best mark. It’s all about the elite changeup, which is extremely hard for batters to pick up and dives at the last second. He combines that with mid 90’s heat while mixing in a slider, cutter, and sinker. He’ll be right in the mix for that 5th starter job. 2023 Projection: 6/3.93/1.28/91 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.55/1.19/189 in 170 IP

4) Diego Cartaya LAD, C, 21.7 – Cartaya is neck and neck with Francisco Alvarez for the most power from a prospect catcher, and at 6’3”, 219 pounds, he might surpass him at peak. He jacked 22 homers in 95 games split between Single-A and High-A. Just look at this whip quick swing from the big man. He looks the part of a major leaguer already. He’s an OBP machine with a 14.1% BB%, but the batting average is likely to remain low with some swing and miss issues (26.7% K%). ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 69/32/84/.245/.338/.508/1

5) Michael Busch LAD, 2B/OF, 25.5 – Busch is as easy as it comes to evaluate. He’s a lefty masher with high strikeout and walk rates. He crushed 32 homers with a 167/74 K/BB in 142 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s a poor defensive player, but LA knew that when they took him 31st overall in the 2019 Draft. If he hits, they’ll find a spot for him, and I think he’s gonna hit. 2023 Projection: 34/11/36/.237/.318/.441/2 Prime Projection: 87/28/87/.251/.343/.488/3

6) Andy Pages LAD, OF, 22.4 – Pages’ 102 wRC+ at Double-A doesn’t jump off the page, but he was only 21 year old at the advanced level, and his profile remains the same as a low BA, high OBP slugger. He cracked 26 homers with a 24.9%/10.9% K%/BB% in 132 games. The reason I have Busch ranked over him is that Busch has a launch angle conducive to power and BA, but Pages has an extreme 50.4% flyball percentage which led to a .236 BA. There is very real batting average risk especially if the balls remain dead. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 83/28/87/.241/.330/.479/6

7) Dalton Rushing LAD, C/1B, 22.1 – Selected 40th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Rushing gets the biggest post draft bump after the destruction he left in his wake in pro ball. He slashed .404/.522/.740 with 8 homers and a 16.4%/16.4% K%/BB% in 28 games at Single-A. It’s not like this came out of nowhere either as he jacked 23 homers with a 1.156 OPS in 64 games in the ACC. Tack on the fact he got drafted by one of the best organizations in baseball who have recently developed 2 prospects with a very similar profile (Andy Pages and Michael Busch), and it makes Rushing a no brainer FYPD target. He’s not a lock to stick behind the plate, but the bat will play anywhere, and LA values versatility. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 78/26/81/.253/.337/.461/2

8) Josue De Paula LAD, OF, 17.10 – De Paula might be my favorite DSL breakout. He’s in a great organization, has athletic bloodlines (Stephon Marbury is his cousin), has great size (6’3”, 185), and great production (162 wRC+ with a 13.9%/14.3% K%/BB% in 53 DSL games). He made his first appearance on my in-season Top 300+ Monthly Prospects Rankings in July at 257th overall, and rose all the way to 139th overall on my Top 360 End of Season Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings over on Patreon. DSL prospects are as high risk as they come, but he has a legitimate chance to become one of the next big things. He’s started to get more hype this off-season, but he should still come at a great price in 99% of leagues. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 77/25/84/.271/.336/.473/12

9) Ryan Pepiot LAD, RHP, 25.7 – If Pepiot cracks the Dodgers rotation, this will look too low, because anybody in the Dodgers rotation is good enough for my fantasy rotation, but this is my bet that Miller and Stone will pass him on the depth chart. Not to mention Nastrini, Sheehan, and Frasso who all might be better than Pepiot too. He’s had control problems throughout his career and it hit a crescendo in his MLB debut with a 16.9% BB% in 36.1 IP. All 3 of his pitches get whiffs (fastball, change, slider), but none put up over a 30% whiff%. The fall off the table changeup is the money maker with a .227 xwOBA, which he combines with a 93.9 MPH that he threw 56.2% of the time and an average slider. LA’s depth, his control issues, and his limited repertoire has me leaning towards him being used out of the bullpen. 2023 Projection: 5/3.92/1.32/81 in 75 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.87/1.29/168 in 160 IP (if he sticks with Dodgers, in another org, I would go 4+ ERA)

10) James Outman LAD, OF, 25.10 – I’m a little scared by Outman’s big strikeout rates, but he has undeniable talent and there is a non zero chance he works his way into a large share of playing time in 2023. The close to the majors upside is worth the shot at this point in the rankings. He’s 6’3”, 205 pounds with a powerful lefty swing that cracked 31 homers in 125 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s also a good athlete, nabbing 13 bags. The aforementioned K rate is the issue as it sat at 29% at Double-A and 25% at Triple-A, before spiking to 43.8% in his 16 PA MLB debut. If he didn’t smoke the ball with a 99.6 MPH EV (1.409 OPS) in 6 batted ball events, I might not have been as high on him, and while it’s a small sample, you can’t really fake your way into hitting the ball that hard. I fear he’ll top out as a bench bat, but I’ll grab him if the price is right. 2023 Projection: 42/14/46/.228/.309/.431/5 Prime Projection: 65/19/68/.239/.320/.447/7

Just Missed

11) Nick Nastrini LAD, RHP, 23.1

12) Emmet Sheehan LAD, RHP, 23.4

13) Nick Frasso LAD, RHP, 24.5

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Odds are Bryce Harper is on a win now team in Dynasty, and with news he’s likely to be out for a few months into 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, I would go sniffing around to see if you can land him for any kind of a discount. Tommy John surgery is not nearly as big of a deal for hitters as it pitchers, and it’s very likely he returns to prime form. It also feels like the guy is 35 years old already because he’s been in the league since he was 19, but he’s still only 30 and should have several more years of elite production left. He’s in that true elite of the elite class of player that has a real chance of killing it deep into his 30’s. Harper would have been essentially untouchable before this injury, but now the window is open just a crack, and I would go after him regardless of where my team is in the contention cycle.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)