Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys and talk some team specific strategy for every team to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Boston Red Sox 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):
CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
–A Top 200 Sneak Peek of the 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Top 250 is dropping tomorrow)
-Dynasty Team Reports for every team (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)
–Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Top 56 C/Top 78 1B/Top 87 2B/Top 88 3B/Top 122 SS up now)
-End of Season 2021 Top 466 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
-End of Season 2021 Top 322 Dynasty Prospects Rankings
*A Top 250 Sneak Peek of the 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings coming tomorrow
Starting Pitchers
Chris Sale BOS, LHP, 33.0 – Sale returned in mid August from Tommy John surgery and looked about, I would say, like 85% of himself. He had a pitching line of 3.16/1.34/52/12 in 42.2 IP. He had a 4 year low 28.4% K% and a 10 year worst 6.6% BB%. His changeup was particularly ineffective with a .667 slugging against and a 23.8% whiff% (33% whiff% in 2019). His fastball sat 93.6 MPH, which is on the low side, but not out of character for his career, and it averaged 95.1 MPH against Houston in his 5.1 inning playoff start against them. If you want to look at it glass a half full, he should come back fully healthy after a normal off-season. Glass half empty take is that this could be his new, still very good skill level as he enters his mid 30’s. 2022 Projection: 11/3.42/1.15/197 in 160 IP
Tanner Houck BOS, RHP, 25.9 – Houck thrived in relatively short outings, putting up a 3.52 ERA with a 30.5%/7.4% K%/BB% in 69 IP. He averaged 3.8 IP per outing and never went more than 5.1 IP. His fastball exploded to 94.5 MPH and his slider was truly elite with a .194 xwOBA. He might not rack up innings, but he’s proven his fastball/slider combo can do real damage in the majors. He’s a great target who is still not getting enough hype. He ranked #162 on my Top 200 Sneak Peek of the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings over on Patreon. 2022 Projection: 10/3.75/1.25/166 in 145 IP
Nick Pivetta BOS, RHP, 29.2 – Everybody’s favorite sleeper in 2019 put himself back on the map in 2021 with a pitching line of 4.53/1.30/175/65 in 155 IP. He had a 3.84 xERA, but he’s underperformed his xStats basically every year of his career because of how homer prone he is, so it’s hard to buy into that being his “true” talent level. He had an above average 26.5% K%, but his whiff% was an average 24.6% and none of his pitches standout as elite K pitches with his slider and curve putting up a 26.4% and 31.1% whiff%, respectively. He’s also in a very challenging pitching environment at Fenway in the AL East. He did enough to 2021 to be an interesting back end rotation option, but I’m still not comfortable going out of my way to target him. 2022 Projection: 10/4.27/1.32/169 in 160 IP
Hitters
Bobby Dalbec BOS, 1B, 26.9 – After struggling pre break with a .673 OPS and 36.8% K% in 72 games, Dalbec went off in the 2nd half, slashing .269/.344/.611 with 15 homers and a 31.3% K% in 61 games. It all comes down to plate approach with him (34.4%/6.2% K%/BB%), because he smashes the ball with a 92.4 MPH EV. I would be higher on him if Triston Casas wasn’t breathing down his neck. He has about as short of a leash as you can get. 2022 Projection: 66/28/82/.240/.309/.482/2
Enrique Hernandez BOS, 2B/OF, 30.7 – Hernandez put up the best xwOBA of his career with a .346 mark, and he did it on the back of a career high 90.8 MPH EV and 8.4% Barrel%. He brought his BB% back up to 10.4% after it tanked in 2020 to 4.1%. He then nuclear in the playoffs with 5 homers and a 230 wRC+ in 11 games. He’s not going to be a league winner, but he’s established himself as a rock solid option and will likely be underpriced going into 2022. 2022 Projection: 78/23/74/.248/.330/.451/2
Bullpen
Garrett Whitlock BOS, RHP, 25.10 – Whitlock’s role for 2022 is still up in the air as he could find his way into the rotation. He’s a groundball pitcher (7.5 degree launch angle) with above average strikeout rates (27.2% K%) and plus control (5.7% BB%). That is a hell of a combination that led to a 1.96 ERA and 81/17 K/BB in 73.1 IP. He also has plus stuff with a 95.8 MPH sinker (96.3 MPH 4-seamer) and two plus secondaries in his changeup (.226 xwOBA) and slider (.229 xwOBA). He pitched mostly short outings (1-2 IP), so those numbers will likely drop back as a starter, but he’s a great target regardless of what role he ends up in. 2022 Projection: 8/3.63/1.23/124 in 120 IP
Boston Red Sox Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects
1) Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 22.2 – Casas is 6’4”, 252 pounds with double plus raw power and a mature approach at the plate. He put up a 19.1%/15.4% in 86 games at mostly Double-A (9 games at Triple-A). He has a textbook lefty swing with very little movement, and he rarely sells out to get to his power. His homer totals don’t jump out at you with only 14 homers, but he doesn’t have any major groundball issues with a 42.8% GB% (34.6% GB% at Triple-A), so even if he doesn’t make adjustments to unlock more power, he will still hit plenty of homers while maintaining a high BA. He’s in the mold of a Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt if he hits his ceiling. 2022 Projection: 36/10/41/.253/.334/.469/2 Prime Projection: 96/32/102/.276/.365/.515/4
2) Marcelo Mayer BOS, SS, 19.4 – Selected 4th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Mayer stays loose and easy in his stance before unleashing a vicious lefty swing that has monster offensive potential written all over it. He did show some swing and miss in his pro debut with a 25.2% K% in 26 games, but he has a mature plate approach (14% BB%) and a swing that is geared for both power and average. He put up a 121 wRC+. Lack of speed is the only issue for fantasy, and it is the reason he is far from a lock for the top pick in first year player drafts. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 89/25/88/.274/.346/.478/7
3) Nick Yorke BOS, 2B, 20.0 – Boston drafting Nick Yorke 17th overall in 2020 drew some head scratches, but they obviously knew what they were doing because Yorke went off in his pro debut. He slashed .325/.412/.516 with 14 homers, 13 steals (in 22 attempts), and a 15.6%/11.8% K%/BB% in 97 games at mostly Single-A. His K% jumped up to 22.9% at High-A, but he actually put up a better wRC+ at the level (158 wRC+) than he did in Single-A (146 wRC+). He has a double plus hit tool with a mature plate approach and no major groundball issues, so he should hit for solid power on quality of contact alone. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 94/20/75/.288/.366/.463/9
4) Jarren Duran BOS, OF, 25.7 – Duran’s power breakout in 2020 at the alt side carried over into real games in 2021 with 16 homers and a 37.5% GB% in 60 games at Triple-A, but everything crumbled when he got to the majors. He put up a .578 OPS with a 35.7%/3.6% K%/BB% and a 49.3% GB% in 112 PA. The good news is that he hit the ball pretty hard with an above average 89.6/93.6 MPH AVG/FB EV and he’s lightening fast with a 29.3 ft/sec sprint speed. Even with the new flyball approach in Triple-A he was able to maintain a strong 23.3%/10.6% K%/BB%, and he’s been a strong contact hitter his entire career, so those numbers should improve his 2nd time through the majors. 2022 Projection: 46/12/41/.243/.301/.418/14 Prime Projection: 77/18/73/.258/.319/.433/19
5) Blaze Jordan BOS, 3B, 19.3 – Jordan has been well known for his impressive power for years now at 6’2”, 220 pounds with a lightening quick righty swing, and he didn’t disappoint in his pro debut with 6 homers in 28 games split between rookie ball and Single-A. He destroyed rookie ball with a 1.075 OPS in 19 games, and while his plate approach got exposed in full season ball (.289 OBP), he still ripped 2 quick homers in 9 games. He’s not great on defense and he needs to refine his plate approach, but his prodigious power gives him a very high floor for fantasy. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/33/89/.252/.318/.508/3
6) Jeter Downs BOS, 2B, 23.8 – After playing only 12 games in the upper minors (Double-A) prior to this season, Boston sent Downs straight to Triple-A and he simply wasn’t ready. His K% skyrocketed to 32.3% and he put up a 62 wRC+ in 99 games. He was better against inferior competition in the AFL with a .880 OPS, but he still had only a .228 BA with 18 K’s in 16 games. The above average power/speed combo is still there, and this was the first time he has really struggled in his career, so hopefully he can make the necessary adjustments this off-season. 2022 Projection: 17/4/21/.221/.298/.395/3 Prime Projection: 76/23/76/.245/.318/.433/11
7) Brayan Bello BOS, RHP, 22.10 – Bello rolled through High-A with a 2.27 ERA and 45/7 K/BB in 31.2 IP before meeting his match in Double-A with a 4.66 ERA, but his strikeout rate was still excellent (31.1%) and he had a 3.33 xFIP, so he pitched better than his surface stats. He has big stuff with a mid 90’s fastball that he can regularly get into the upper 90’s and the potential for 2 plus secondaries in his slider and change. He has solid control, but his command can waver and he doesn’t necessarily consistently hit his spots. If he can improve his control/command, he has legitimate top of the rotation upside, but he’ll more likely top out as a mid rotation guy with high K rates. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 11/3.89/1.30/175 in 165 IP
8) Alex Binelas BOS, 3B, 21.10 – Drafted 86th overall in 2021 MLB Draft, Binelas is a built up 6’3”, 225 pounds with plus power and hit tool concerns. He’s done nothing but crush homers in his career, hitting 14 dingers in 59 games in the ACC in 2019, 19 dingers in 50 ACC games in 2021, and then 9 dingers in 29 games in his pro debut at Single-A. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 69/26/78/.245/.317/.472/1
9) Gilberto Jimenez BOS, OF, 21.9 – Jimenez had a solid year at Single-A (105 wRC+) led by his good feel to hit with a 21.1% K% and .306 BA, but he wasn’t able to get to any of his power because of a 56.1% GB%. He hit 3 homers in 94 games. He doesn’t walk much (4.7% BB%) and while he has at least plus speed, he hasn’t been very effective on the bases in his career (13 for 21 in 2021). There is still an exciting blend of tools here, and he hasn’t performed poorly by any means, but he needs to find a way to produce more homers and steals if he wants to be an impact fantasy player. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 76/13/62/.275/.319/.412/15
10) Niko Kavadas BOS, 1B, 23.7 – Selected 316th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Kavadas has some of the best pure power in the draft, crushing 22 homers in 47 games in the ACC. He fell to the 11th round because of signing bonus demands and the fact he was a 4 year college player, but none of that changes the very real juice in his lefty bat at 6’1”, 235 pounds. He has strikeout issues and no defensive value, so his bat needs to hit close to his ceiling. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 42/17/49/.237/.323/.458/0
Just Missed
11) Jay Groome BOS, LHP, 23.7
12) Ronaldo Hernandez BOS, C, 24.5 – Hernandez has plus power, drilling 16 homers in 99 games split between Double-A and Triple-A, but he notched a career worst 19.9% K% (still pretty good) and 3.1% BB% (terrible). He’s also not a very good defensive player. Power is the skill you are buying here. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 38/13/47/.241/.290/.432/0
Strategy
Fenway is the 2nd worst pitcher’s park behind Coors Field (according to Statcast), making their non elite pitchers bad bets for fantasy. It’s what makes me hesitant to rank guys like Pivetta, Bello and Groome higher. It’s a great park for hitters (it juices up doubles in particular), but it is a below average park for homers, possibly capping the upside a bit on someone like Verdguo.
CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
–A Top 200 Sneak Peek of my 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Top 250 is dropping tomorrow)
-Dynasty Team Reports for every team (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)
–Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Top 56 C/Top 78 1B/Top 87 2B/Top 88 3B/Top 122 SS up now)
-End of Season 2021 Top 466 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
-End of Season 2021 Top 322 Dynasty Prospects Rankings
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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)