Posted on by Michael Halpern

NFL Playoff Picks: Divisional Round

The NFL Divisional Round kicks off this Saturday, matching up the 2 vs. 5 seeds from each conference. I am looking to bounce back after going 1-3 in the Wild Card Round.

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots
Spread: NE – 5

The public is favoring Kansas City right now, with 60% of the bets coming in on them. Always be skeptical of a public underdog. People are looking at a Kansas City team that has won 11 straight, a New England team that is banged up, and are running for the points. Vegas is more than happy to back Bill Belichick at home with two weeks to prepare. Making the spread 5 almost seems like they are goading bettors into taking Kansas City.

The Pick: Take Kansas City plus the points. I’m a sucker.

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals
Spread: Ari -7

Another game with the public backing the underdog, with 56% of the bets coming in on Green Bay. Didn’t take much to get people back on that Packers bandwagon, huh. Vegas will be backing Arizona, who just beat this Green Bay team by 30 points a few weeks ago. Aaron Rodgers told reporters earlier this week, “the pressure’s all going to be on them.”

The Pick: Take Green Bay plus the points. They were my sole victory from last week (sort of), and I am going to keep riding them.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com

Posted on by Michael Halpern

NFL Playoff Picks: NFC Wild Card Round

The NFC Wild Card Round will be played this Sunday, January 10, 2016. The two clear favorites in the NFC, Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals, have first-round byes, and will be awaiting the teams that survive this round

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: Sea – 5

Seattle: Seattle has the 4th best point differential in the league, outscoring their opponents by 146 combined points. They have the 2nd ranked defense in the NFL, and have allowed the least amount of points, surrendering only 17.3 points per game. QB Russell Wilson had a breakout season as a passer this year, throwing for 4,024 yards and 34 touchdowns. Everyone just assumed this breakout would eventually happen, so nobody is really talking about it, but it is a major step forward for Wilson. Even with RB Marshawn Lynch banged up all season, Seattle rushed for the 3rd most yards in the NFL. They have won eight of their last ten games. If you have not figured it out yet, Seattle is still very, very good.

Minnesota: Minnesota has the 9th best point differential in the league, outscoring their opponents by 63 combined points. They have the 13th ranked defense and 29th ranked offense in the NFL. QB Teddy Bridgewater failed to improve on his impressive rookie season this year, throwing for only 14 touchdowns in 16 games. On the bright side, RB Adrian Peterson picked up right where he left off after missing almost all of last season. He rushed for 1,485 yards and 11 touchdowns, leading Minnesota’s 4th ranked rushing attack. Minnesota comes into the playoffs on a three-game winning streak, outscoring their opponents (CHI, NYG, GB) by 60 points in those games alone.

The Pick: Seattle dominated Minnesota, 38-7, when these two teams met just one month ago. With Minnesota at home for this game, I would expect them to put up a much better fight this time around. But it will still likely not be enough to topple their superior opponent. Take Seattle giving the five points, but don’t think it is going to be easy.

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins
Spread: Wash – 1

I would be lying if I told you I have any idea how this game is going to play out. Green Bay has been underwhelming this entire season, and has lost their last two games. Washington is on a four-game win streak, and is playing at home. Kirk Cousins had a better QB rating, 101.6, than Aaron Rodgers did this year, 92.7. And yet, I still cannot find it in me to trust Washington.

The Pick: Pass. If I was forced to pick, I would put my money on Rodgers and live with the results.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com