Hayden Birdsong – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on July 29, 2024July 31, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning, er, Afternoon, Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/29/24)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/29/24):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 11 MID-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS (6/25/24)
-MID-SEASON TOP 422 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (7/12/24)
-JUNE TOP 305 PROSPECTS RANKS (new update coming next week)
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS (7/19/24)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JULY MAILBAG! (7/31/24)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

Travis Bazzana CLE, 2B, 21.11 – And away we go. The 2024 MLB Draft pro debuts have officially kicked off. This is where excitement and hype can go to die with a rough go of it (Jacob Berry and Chase Davis say hi), or absolutely balloon to elite levels with utter dominance (Wyatt Langford). It’s exciting and scary all at the same time. Lots can change between now and the end of the season, and with how tight it is with the top talent of the draft, a shake up can definitely happen. Bazzana is up first, making his debut at High-A, and he’s already getting his first taste of reality with a 57.1%/0.0% K%/BB% in 2 games. He had two games all season in college where he struck out multiple times and didn’t walk once, and now he’s done that in his first two games of pro ball. It’s sooooooooo early, so obviously don’t even give it a second thought right now, but those insanely inflated college stats from all these guys are about to get a cold splash right to the face. I’m buzzing with nervous excitement for all these guys to debut. You can’t hide behind metal bats and freshman pitchers anymore.

Jazz Chisholm NYY, OF, 26.6 – Hello short porch. You couldn’t have asked for a better landing spot for Jazz. His Statcast expected homer total for this year at Yankee Stadium is 19. He has 13 on the year and his expected total at Miami is 14. I know he isn’t a lift and pull maniac, but this move is a major upgrade for fantasy without even taking into account the much better lineup. He already stole a bag in his first game with the team, giving him 23 steals in 102 games. His plate approach is much improved this year with a career best 24.8%/9.0% K%/BB%. He hits the ball hard with a 10.6% Barrel%. And now he enters the perfect ballpark to maximize his game power. Jazz owners have to be over the moon right now.

Isaac Paredes CHC, 1B/3B, 25.5 – … and Paredes owners have to be whatever the opposite of over the moon is. Under the sun? His weak EV, lift and pull profile was tailored made for Tampa, but now he’s headed to a below average ballpark for righty homers. He has a Statcast expected 11 homers this year with Chicago. It almost feels too easy to say that his numbers are going to drop off immediately. He’s 0 for 8 in his career at Wrigley (obviously silly small sample). He has a .752 OPS away from the Trop this year (.830 at the Trop). I’m not sure how this could be seen as anything but a major downgrade.

Christopher Morel TBR, OF/3B, 25.2 – Just watch Morel immediately start to play to his underlying numbers with Tampa. It’s not hard to see what Tampa saw with a .346 xwOBA vs. .298 wOBA. He hits the ball hard enough where he isn’t completely ballpark dependent, but this is still a ballpark upgrade for him, and I don’t think Tampa would have made this deal if they didn’t intend on playing him nearly everyday. I feel much more comfortable about Morel’s long term playing time in Tampa than I did with Chicago. This is an upgrade for Morel.

Matt Shaw CHC, 2B/SS, 22.9 The biggest loser of this trade seems to be Shaw. His path to playing time just got a whole lot murkier, and it seems to indicate Chicago is planning on taking it nice and slow with his development. He’ll have to settle for hitting lasers in the upper minors like he did last night for his 13th homer in 80 games at Double-A. I have no idea where he fits in now, or where their 2024 first rounder, 3B Cam Smith, fits in either. Depth is great for real life, but a pain in the ass for fantasy.

Dylan Lesko TBR, RHP, 20.11 – I can’t decide if Tampa fleeced San Diego in the Jason Adam for Dylan Lesko deal, or if everyone is still falling in love with the idea of Dylan Lesko rather than the reality of him. He has a 6.46 ERA with a 25%/16.5% K%/BB% in 69.2 IP at High-A. That is quite bad. But the stuff is still really good with three potentially plus pitches in his mid 90’s fastball, nasty breaking ball, and his famously filthy changeup. This was still just his first full season coming off Tommy John, and also his first full healthy season in pro ball. It’s completely reasonable to expect growing pains, and if anyone can develop Lesko, it’s Tampa. This feels like breathing new life into Lesko’s dynasty value which was quickly evaporating.

Spencer Schwellenbach ATL, RHP, 24.2 – In last weeks’ Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown, I wrote, “Schwellenbach is officially one of the most exciting young starters in the game, and is a major target if you can buy off his inflated 4.62 ERA (3.74 xERA). He has the big velocity, he has the big pitch mix, he has plus control, he induces weak contact, he has above average whiffs, and he has three plus secondaries. He’s starting to look like a young near ace.” … but after Saturday’s outing, that buy window is most likely slammed shut, going 7 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 11/0 K/BB. The fastball sat 96.9 MPH and put up a 38% whiff%. The slider dominated as his most used pitch with a 33% usage and 67% whiff%. And again he used a legit 6 pitch mix. He deserves to be talked about with some of the best young breakouts in the game with a 3.26 xERA (4.06 ERA) and 25.5%/4.3% K%/BB% in 57.2 IP.

Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 25.10 – I’ve been pounding the buy drum on Cruz for years now, through injuries, strikeout problems, the slow start to this year … all of it. And it’s starting to pay off now. He cracked a 109.2 MPH homer yesterday for his 17th of the season, and he’s now slashing .320/.381/.667 with 6 homers, 3 steals, and a 27/7 K/BB in his last 20 games. A 95.2 MPH EV is just absurd, and it’s the 3rd best mark in baseball behind only Judge and Ohtani. His 28.7 ft/sec sprint is in the top 13% of the league. And his 31.9% K% isn’t too horrible. We can work with that when you have this level of truly elite talent. He didn’t budge on the Mid-Season Top 422 Dynasty Rankings (Patreon) at #40 overall, and we might be looking at a Top 20 ish dynasty asset by the end of the season if he can keep up this hot streak.

Xavier Edwards MIA, 2B/OF, 25.0 – Edwards “jacked” his first homer of the year at a lowly 96.3 MPH, but it was enough to clear the fence, and it was also enough to hit for the cycle on a 4 for 4 day … plus a walk. I feel like there should be a name for hitting for the cycle and also getting a walk. Hitting for The Unicycle? Hitting for The Cycle with a Sidecar? Ha, I like Cycle with a Sidecar. That works. Either way, Edwards has been excellent this season, slashing .379/.462/.494 with 1 homer, 8 steals, and a 15.2%/14.3% K%/BB% in 25 games. His 88.2 MPH EV is mighty impressive considering it sat at 82.2 MPH in 2023, although a 2.7% Barrel% is probably a better representation of how hard he can actually hit the ball. The plate approach is elite and he’s an excellent base stealer. It’s a Steven Kwan/Nico Hoerner-esque profile which we have obviously seen work in the majors. I wouldn’t buy in too hard, but he’s establishing himself as an interesting contact/speed player.

Gavin Lux LAD, 2B/OF, 26.8 – The Dodgers showed the patience of a saint with Lux, and it’s been paying off of late. He went 1 for 2 with 3 walks and a 98.1 MPH homer off Spencer Arrighetti. He’s now slashing .425/.500/.825 with 4 homers, 1 steal, and a 11/5 K/BB in his last 46 PA. The 88 MPH EV and 6.9% Barrel% over that time period still isn’t exactly knocking my socks off, so I’m still struggling to get too excited. I’m not seeing a monster explosion coming here. It seems like he’s rounding back into his really boring fantasy player form that he showed before going down with the knee injury.

Jhonkensy Noel CLE, 1B/3B/OF, 23.0 – 3 for 4 with a 109.6 MPH homer off Kolby Allard. I remember when Kolby Allard was a hyped high school prospect, but now he is just bottom of the roster fodder for guys like Noel to juice up their stats on. He has a career 6.11 ERA in 249 IP to go along wi … oh wait, this blurb is about Noel. My prospect nostalgia/where are they now got the best of me for a second there. As for Noel, he is exactly as advertised with 6 homers, a 91.1 MPH EV, and 35.4%/4.6% K%/BB% in 65 MLB PA. The 31.2% whiff% is better than the K rate, which is encouraging, and so is the .363 xwOBA. He’s also sneaky athletic with an above average 27.8 ft/sec sprint, and while he’s not going to steal bases, it’s still nice to see. Noel’s value continues to rise, and I would value him as a Top 300-ish dynasty asset right now.

Michael Toglia COL, 1B/OF, 25.11 – It’s hard to call the Toglia breakout anything but legit at this point (and it looks mighty similar to what Noel is doing) with him launching a 105.2 MPH homer for his 18th in 61 games. The 92.5 MPH EV and 17.5% Barrel% very clearly backs up the explosion, and a 32.3% K% is workable when you are hitting the ball that hard (and when you play at Coors). He’s a good athlete too with an above average 27.6 ft/sec sprint. The BA is obviously still a major risk, and it sits at .215 right now, so I’m certainly not going too crazy, but this does look like a legit leveling up for Toglia.

Hayden Birdsong SFG, RHP, 22.11 – 5 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 8/3 K/BB vs. COL. Well, at least we can be certain that Birdsong can beat the Rockies, throwing back to back dominant outings vs them. The fastball sat 95.9 MPH and put up a 29% whiff%, while all three secondaries (slider, change, curve) racked up whiffs for a 39% whiff% overall. His 4 starts vs non Rockies teams were not as smooth, so it would be nice to see him do this against a better lineup before crowning him, but it’s still an exciting start to Birdsong’s career. He now has a 2.97 ERA with a 30.2%/11.9% K%/BB% in 30.1 IP. His 34.8% whiff% is elite.

River Ryan LAD, RHP, 26.0 – 5.2 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 8/3 K/BB vs. HOU. The fastball sat 96.1 MPH with a respectable 22% whiff%. The breaking balls missed a ton of bats, leading to a 33% whiff% overall, and the sinker dominated with a 78.8 MPH EV against and 29% whiff%. He’s looked electric since returning from missing most of the season with shoulder fatigue, and while he was solid in his first MLB outing, he took it to another level in this one, showing off the bat missing ability. He already rose to #356 overall on the Mid-Season Top 422 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon) before he had even made his MLB debut, and now I think he’s easily within the Top 300.

DJ Herz WAS, LHP, 23.7 – 5 IP, 3 hit, 2 ER, 8/1 K/BB vs. STL. The 93.8 MPH fastball put up a 56% whiff% and it’s been a great pitch all season with a 35.1% whiff% and .251 xwOBA. His 6.6% BB% in 41.1 IP is extremely impressive considering how badly he struggled with his control in the minors. The 4.79 ERA doesn’t look great, but the 3.31 xERA looks much better. Herz was a former favorite of mine, and while I hesitate to think he can truly keep up this level of control, we know that pitcher development isn’t linear. He’s still just 23 year old, so it wouldn’t be shocking if he was taking a real step forward. While I wouldn’t give up very much for him right now, he’s definitely worth a shot in all league sizes, and if you can get him on the cheap or as a throw in as part of a bigger deadline deal, that would be perfect. There is definitely something here.

Hyun-Seok Jang LAD, RHP, 20.4 – 3 IP, 0 hits, 0 ER, 8/1 K/BB at rookie ball in the ACL championship series. It’s been an up and down first year of pro ball for Jang, but this is the type of dominance he is capable of when his control is on. He’s an absolute strikeout machine with 57 K’s in just 27.1 IP on the season, and the stuff is no joke with him getting up to 99 MPH. He is obviously still a bit of a project with a 8.14 ERA and 16.1% BB% in 24.1 IP during the regular season, but I trust the Dodgers to get the most of his talent. The breakout didn’t come this year, but I still like him a ton, and I think it’s coming down the line.

Connor Norby BAL, 2B/OF, 24.2 – 0 for 3 with 3 K’s and is now 0 for his last 10 … this is not how you entice Detroit or Chicago to want you in a trade for Skubal or Crochet.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on July 22, 2024July 27, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/22/24)

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 11 MID-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS (6/25/24)
-MID-SEASON TOP 422 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (7/12/24)
-JUNE TOP 305 PROSPECTS RANKS (6/14/24) (new update coming soon)
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS (7/19/24)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JUNE MAILBAG! (6/28/24) (new Mailbag coming soon)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

Max Clark DET, OF, 19.7 – The stupendous 2023 MLB Draft class is casting such a long shadow that all anyone can talk about is how crappy the 2024 Draft class is in comparison, and while I would argue they are being too harsh, especially for fantasy, (check out the 2025 Top 57 FYPD Rankings that just dropped on Patreon last week), the 2023 class is out here teaching the 2024 class how it’s done in pro ball. Clark just homered his way into a promotion to High-A, going 3 for 4 with a laser shot into the License to Chill Lounge. He tacked on a double and stolen base in his final game at Single-A. He earned that promotion with 7 homers, 26 steals, a 133 wRC+, and 17.4%/14.4% K%/BB% in 73 games. That is fully living up to his hype, and the final step to superstardom will be naturally gaining strength and raising his launch (48.6% GB%), although he has the type of profile that can thrive with a low launch. He isn’t even one of the truly most hyped names in the class …

Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 22.5 – Speaking of one of the most hyped names in the class, arguably too hyped, Crews is out here working to put some shine back on his name, utterly destroying a 409 foot, 103.3 MPH bomb for his 4th in 23 games at the level. The 97 wRC+ might not be super impressive, but 4 homers with 5 steals, a 16.8%/9.7% K%/BB% and 89.2 MPH EV looks pretty damn good to me. With all the hand wringing over Crews and ball washing over Langford, it would be pretty funny if Crews took MLB by storm when he got his chance and passed Langford again. Langford has been coming on of late, but his season line is still quite beatable.

Walker Jenkins MIN, OF, 19.5 – The mega hyped Jenkins had a hammy delay his full take off, but he’s been healthy and in a groove for a little while now, going 2 for 4 with 2 walks and a steal yesterday. He now has a 140 wRC+ on the back of a 12.5%/19.5% K%/BB% in 28 games at Single-A. It’s great to see how advanced of a hitter he is, but we have enough elite plate approach weaklings to go around, we need him to start doing some real damage. Only 2 homers with a 87.3 MPH EV is lackluster. We know he has the raw power in the tank at 6’3”, 210 pounds, so I don’t doubt it’s coming, but it would be nice to see some more of it.

Brice Matthews HOU, SS, 22.4 – Matthews didn’t get the hype of the aforementioned names, unless you read my work this off-season which named Matthews as one of my favorite FYPD targets, and he’s more than delivered. He went 2 for 4 with 2 steals and an absolute NUC out to deep centerfield that hit off the cotton press. Why they have a cotton press in centerfield is anyone’s guess, but the announcer was hyped that he hit it. He’s homered in back to back games at Double-A, and now has 4 homers, 6 steals, and a 125 wRC+ in 25 games at the level. The 34.1% K% is definitely too high and adds a healthy does of risk, but he’s proving his upside is no joke, and you have to be happy with this performance compared to his very reasonable FYPD price.

Arjun Nimmala TOR, SS, 18.9 – Nimmala was down on the mat to start the year, simply not looking ready for pro ball, but that was understandable considering how young he was for the class, and now that he’s found a groove, it’s been a homer fest. He drilled his 3rd homer in 6 games at Single-A, and since getting recalled to the level, he’s put up a 1.042 OPS with 4 homers in 16 games. The 32.8% K% over that time period still shows the rawness in his game, but a 110 wRC+ in 45 games on the season is quite impressive for a legit 18 year old. The power is very real, and with more refinement, a true explosion could be coming in 2025.

Hayden Birdsong SFG, RHP, 22.11 – The only thing thinner than Colorado’s air is their lineup, and Birdsong came into Coors and sliced his way through both the air and the lineup, going 6 IP with 2 hits, 2 ER, and a 12/2 K/BB. The breaking pitches were working just fine in that air with a 63% whiff% on the curve and 59% whiff% on the slider. The non breaking pitches were working just fine too with a 57% whiff% on the 95.8 MPH fastball and 50% whiff% on the changeup. He dominated in every facet of the game, and his MLB debut is looking pretty good now with a 3.55 ERA and 28.3%/11.3% K%/BB% in 25.1 IP. His 33.7% whiff% is in the elite range. Birdsong has been underrated for a while now, but a start like this will start to turn people’s head. The below average control certainly adds risk, but he has the type of stuff and swing and miss to overcome that. I’ve been relatively high on Birdsong for over a year now, and I love what I see with his MLB debut. I’m still buying.

Spencer Schwellenbach ATL, RHP, 24.2 – Schwellenbach is officially one of the most exciting young starters in the game, and is a major target if you can buy off his inflated 4.62 ERA (3.74 xERA). He had another impressive outing yesterday, going 6 IP with 7 hits, 4 ER, and a 8/0 K/BB vs. STL. The fastball sat 95.7 MPH and put up a 29% whiff%. The splitter was devastating with a 64% whiff%. And he used a 6 pitch mix to notch a 34% whiff% overall. He got hit hard in this one with a 93.3 MPH EV, but he hasn’t been hit hard this season with a 4.7% Barrel% against. He just rose to #212 overall on the Mid-Season Top 422 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon), finishing his blurb by writing, “He looks damn good. I would buy off the high ERA if you can.” He has the big velocity, he has the big pitch mix, he has plus control, he induces weak contact, he has above average whiffs, and he has three plus secondaries. #212 might not even be high enough, he might be worthy of knocking on the door of the Top 100 area right now. He’s starting to look like a young near ace.

Drew Thorpe CHW, RHP, 23.10 – 6 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 5/2 K/BB vs. KC. The filthy changeup is just impossible to pick up with a 43% whiff%. It really acts more like knuckleball. It can really end up anywhere with multiple different movement profiles. It’s pretty wild and it’s befuddled MLB hitters with a .246 xwOBA and 38.8% whiff% on the season. It’s led to a 3.03 ERA with a 15.4%/10.9% K%/BB% and 86 MPH EV against in 38.2 IP. There is little doubt at this point the changeup will play against the best hitters in the world. It wasn’t only the changeup in this game though, the slider also dominated with a 64% whiff%, and that pitch has also been good with a .293 xwOBA (.176 wOBA) and 30% whiff%. I struggle to fully buy in with such a mediocre K/BB rate, but this is essentially a knuckleballer+ profile, and knuckleballer’s can definitely get the job done without great K/BB rates. I’m buying in more and more, but I still see limited upside in the long run.

Brandon Pfaadt ARI, RHP, 25.9 – 7 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 7/1 K/BB vs. CHC. He did what he does best which is double plus control of a good fastball, to go along with two good secondaries in his sweeper and changeup. I named him a major target in my Top 11 Mid-Season Dynasty Baseball Targets article (Patreon), and since then he has a 0.77 ERA with a 25/3 K/BB in 23.1 IP. Not bad. I hope you bought when the price was reasonable.

James Wood WAS, OF, 21.10 – Wood cooled off a bit from his blazing start in the majors, but he was back at it yesterday, going 2 for 4 with a 105.9 MPH homer off lefty Justin Wilson. That wasn’t even his hardest hit ball of the day, it was his 3rd hardest hit ball with a 109 MPH lineout and 107.2 MPH single off lefty Andrew Abbott. He now has a 12.2% Barrel% and 93.5 MPH EV in 17 games. The 33.3% K% and negative 7.6 degree launch is definitely showing off some rawness, and he’s not a finished product, but nothing is dissuading me from thinking Wood is a future superstar. He crushes the ball too hard, and he’s shown in the minors he can improve his hit tool. The explosion might not be coming this year, but it’s coming.

Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 20.4 – I’m not going to say Chourio has fully arrived, because there is another level in here he hasn’t even started to scratch yet, but he’s certainly getting closer after going 2 for 4 with a 108.6 MPH double off Joe Ryan and 107.7 MPH, 443 foot homer off Jorge Alcala. He’s now slashing .314/.368/.512 with 5 homers, 5 steals, and a 17.3%/8.3% K%/BB% in his last 36 games. Everything in his underlying numbers is setting a super strong foundation for him to build on in future years. He’s right on track, just give him another year or so.

Leodalis De Vries SDP, SS, 17.9 – It’s not just the 2023 Draft class that was impressive, the international class was special too, and De Vries has been exploding into elite prospect status right before our eyes. He cracked his 7th homer in 54 games at Single-A with that beautiful and powerful swing that straight up looks MLB ready. He now has a .976 OPS with 7 homers, 6 steals, and a 20/13 K/BB in his last 19 games. He ranked 199th overall on those Updated Dynasty Rankings, and that number will just keep climbing.

Zebby Matthews MIN, RHP, 24.2 – Matthews got the call to Triple-A, and he unsurprisingly had no issues in his first start at the level, going 5 IP with 4 hits, 2 ER, and a 6/0 K/BB. The fastball sat 95.3 MPH with a respectable 20% whiff%, the cutter induced weak contact with a 86.8 MPH EV, and the breaking balls missed bats with a 67% whiff% on the curve and 33% whiff% on the slider. I’ve been all over Matthews all season, putting him in the Top 50 on the latest Top 305 Prospects Rankings (new update coming soon on Patreon). He’s walked 6 guys all season in 83 IP, which is dumb. He combines the truly elite control with big velocity, over 30% K rates at each level, and a diverse pitch mix. He’s an elite pitching prospect.

Hunter Barco PIT, LHP, 23.7 – Barco made his first outing at a new level as well, making the big jump to the upper minors at Double-A, and he delivered, going 3 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 5/0 K/BB. I love me a funky lefty, and while Barco’s stuff isn’t huge, he proved it will play just fine in the upper minors. Before Double-A he put up some big numbers at High-A with a 3.34 ERA and 30.4%/8.7% K%/BB% in 62 IP. Pitt has yet another really really good arm in the stable. I would value Barco as at least a Top 200 prospect, and he might be sneaking into the Top 150 area now.

Jarlin Susana WASH, RHP, 20.4 – Susuna has the Hunter Greene starter pack with an upper 90’s fastball and plus slider, and while that pack has been sitting in the plastic for awhile, he’s been starting to put it together of late. He made his 2nd outing at High-A and looked good, going 5 IP with 4 hits, 3 ER, and a 7/1 K/BB. That walk rate is the most important thing to watch, and he now has a 29.3%/7.3% K%/BB% in 10 IP at the level. Over his last 40 IP at Single-A and High-A, he’s put up a 1.58 ERA and 40.1%/9.2% K%/BB%. That is exactly the type of breakout we have been waiting for. There is still control/bullpen risk, but I don’t see how this type of talent isn’t a Top 100 prospect with what he’s been doing of late. He needs to be owned in every league.

Justyn-Henry Malloy DET, 3B/OF, 24.1 – Malloy went 1 for 3 with a walk and walloped a 104 MPH homer off Kevin Gausman for his 6th in 35 games. He’s been extra hot of late with a 1.060 OPS, 4 homers, and a 13/7 K/BB in his last 14 games. He’s showing the power will play in the majors with a 11.1% Barrel%, but I don’t quite trust that the BA will be good enough to sustain a full time job long term. The 20.2 degree launch is extreme and so is the 35.5% whiff%. The .187 xBA is scary. It’s hard not to say that the MLB debut has been a success, but I would still have some caution before buying too high here.

Lawrence Butler OAK, OF, 24.0 – The underlying numbers were screaming that a breakout was coming Butler’s first time around in the majors, and after a reset at Triple-A, the breakout is here. He’s been a hit machine since returning to the majors, going 2 for 3 with a double and 2 walks yesterday, and is now slashing .385/.439/.885 with 7 homers, 2 steals, and a 13/5 K/BB in his last 15 games. He has a 92.2 MPH EV, 11.7% Barrel%, and a .340 xwOBA. The 28.5%/9.7% K%/BB% ain’t that bad. I’ve loved Butler for awhile now, and stayed patient through his surface stats struggles. It’s paying off in a big way now. I’m buying.

Michael King SDP, RHP, 29.2 – King’s slow start to the season dug a deep hole for his hype that he’s been trying to climb out of all season, but I think it’s high time to acknowledge that the dominant run he went on to close the 2023 season was no fluke. Dude has been performing like a true ace for almost 3 months now. He once again put on a dominant performance vs. CLE, going 7 IP with 2 hits, 1 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB. He led with the changeup up in this one with a 41% usage, and it was unhittable with a 55% whiff% and 70.4 MPH EV against. The 4 seamer and sweeper were spotless as well with a 36% whiff% and 60% whiff%, respectively. It led to a 75.8% MPH EV against and 45% whiff% on the day. the jumped to 130th overall on those Updated Top 422 Dynasty Rankings (Patreon), and I don’t think a placement inside the Top 100 is unwarranted at this point. He’s starting to cement near ace status.

Drue Hackenburg ATL, RHP, 22.4 – I’ve been talking a lot of shit about the Hackenburg family lately after what Christian Hackenburg did to me as a Jets and Nittany Lions fan, but Drue went out and put some respect back on his family name yesterday, going 7 IP with 3 hits, 1 ER, and a 16/0 K/BB at Double-A. I mean, wow, what a performance. Here are the highlights of the dominance. He now has a 3.43 ERA with a 35.9%/12% K%/BB% in 21 IP at the level. It’s still not good enough to convince me to go after him though. For me, it’s personal, it’s not business 😉

Shane Baz TBR, RHP, 25.0 – 3.1 IP, 4 hits, 0 ER, 1/5 K/BB vs. NYY. The slider didn’t induce a single whiff and he put up a lowly 12% whiff% on the day. He now has a 6.78 xERA with a 19%/11.1% K%/BB% in 13.2 IP. Clearly, something isn’t right. This is why you have to factor in some added risk for pitchers coming off Tommy John. And it’s often their 2nd year back that they return to form, rather than their first year back. This isn’t going to be a smooth ride back to full health, and I think it’s fair to start worrying, but in the long run, I would try to stay patient.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 11 MID-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS (6/25/24)
-MID-SEASON TOP 422 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (7/12/24)
-JUNE TOP 305 PROSPECTS RANKS (6/14/24) (new update coming soon)
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS (7/19/24)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JUNE MAILBAG! (6/28/24) (new Mailbag coming soon)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on July 31, 2023August 3, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/31/23)

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–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

Nolan Schanuel LAA, 1B, 21.5 – I remember when I started writing back in 2015, the pro debuts for recently drafted players were always poo pooed. The default line that every prospect writer gave when asked about the pro performance of the most recent draft class was always some variation of “small sample size,” and they would never deviate from their pre draft evaluation of a player. That never made sense to me, as it seemed obvious that what a player did when they actually started facing pro pitching with a wood bat was very important, actionable information. Well, the prospect landscape has changed drastically over the last 8 years, and now almost every prospect writer puts the proper weight on pro debuts. Valuations can change in a hurry in both directions. Just look at Dalton Rushing and Jacob Berry, likely the two biggest movers in opposite directions in last year’s draft class based on their debuts. Keeping an eye on the recent draftees is one of the most fun/important things you can do at this point of the season. So on that note, let’s kick things off with keeping an eye on the 11th overall pick in the draft, Nolan Schanuel. In true Angels fashion, while everyone else is taking things slow with their draft picks, Schanuel has already skyrocketed to Double-A. This looks like a Zach Neto situation all over again. He’s now the favorite to be the first one to reach the majors from his draft class, and he has the type of extremely advanced plate approach to succeed quickly. He put up a 1.190 OPS with a 1/5 K/BB in 5 games split between rookie and Single-A, but his first game at Double-A was a bit of a “welcome to pro ball, kid” moment, going 0 for 4 with 3 K’s. He bounced back yesterday though with a 3 for 4 night, including a triple and 0/2 K/BB. We’ll quickly find out how good of a plate approach he really has after putting up elite strikeout to walk rates in Conference USA. He ranked 15th overall on my Top 50 2024 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon) and is looking like one of top picks if you want a quick mover.

Max Clark DET, OF, 18.6 – Clark made his pro debut in rookie ball, and he showed off his pu pu platter of skills all in one hit. He ripped a ball the opposite way to deep left centerfield off a lefty, and then showed off the wheels by easily legging out a triple. He went 1 for 4 with 2 K’s on the day. After the consensus top 3 are off the board (Crews, Langford, Skenes), I would be all over Clark, and he already ranked 14th overall on the Mid-Season Top 357 Dynasty Prospects Rankings that dropped last week on the Patreon.

Matt Shaw CHC, SS, 21.8 – There is a consensus Top 5 in the draft (Crews, Langford, Skenes, Clark, Jenkins), but I think Shaw is knocking on the door of that top tier as my top target after that. He’s unsurprisingly crushing rookie ball, going 4 for 8 with 1 homer, 1 double, 2 steals, and a 1/2 K/BB in 3 games. I love his little man leg kick, which is the same swing that made me fall in love with Zach Neto and Spencer Steer. I’m all in on him, ranking him 43rd overall on the Mid-Season Top 357 Prospects Rankings.

Tommy Troy ARI, 3B/2B, 21.6 – Many people have Troy over Shaw, and he did also get taken one pick ahead of Shaw in the draft, but I don’t think Troy has quite the fantasy upside that Shaw has. To Troy’s credit, he’s also handling his business in rookie ball like he should, going 4 for 8 with 1 steal and a 1/2 K/BB in 3 games. Other than the Angels, teams are rightfully taking it slow by starting guys off in rookie ball. There is no reason to not allow them to get their footing slowly in pro ball before promoting them to higher levels.

Chase Davis STL, OF, 21.7 – St. Louis didn’t take the rookie ball first route with Davis, sending him straight to full season ball, and maybe they should have re thought that decision. The hit tool was really the one concern with Davis, and it’s rearing it’s ugly head in the early going with him putting up a 37.5% K% with a .231 BA in 8 games. He’s yet to do any damage either with 0 homers and a .644 OPS. It comes with a 18.8% BB%, which definitely eases some concerns that it’s just small sample noise and/or that he’s being too patient, but it’s still not what you want to see. It’s far too early for this to change anything, but it’s definitely something to keep an eye on.

Mitch Jebb PIT, SS, 21.2 – Selected 42nd overall, Jebb also debuted in full season ball, and unlike Davis, he’s thriving, going 8 for 14 with 2 doubles, 1 steal, and a 0/1 K/BB. He got drafted on the back of his at least plus hit/speed combo, and that profile is transferring completely in the early going. There is little to no power here, which is why he didn’t crack my Top 50, but I definitely have my eye on him with the strong early showing.

Aidan Miller PHI, SS, 19.1 – Miller is already 19 years old, and while 19 year old high school prospects aren’t my favorite to go after, he undeniably has a beastly righty swing geared for both average and power. He’s showed off that swing real quick by going 3 for 4 with 2 doubles in first first pro game in rookie ball and is 4 for 7 with 1 K over 2 games. A strong pro debut could get his hype cooking real quick, and he’s already highly touted.

Homer Bush Jr. SDP, OF, 21.9 – I’ll always have fond memories of Homer Bush as a Yankees fan. He put up a 139 wRC+ in 78 PA during that special 1998 season when I was in my sports fandom prime as a 12 year old. I don’t know why, but thinking back on those fun bench players and part time players almost brings back more nostalgia than remembering the stars. Time marches on though, and now Homer Bush is 50 years old, and it’s his sons turn to make some memories for the kids. He stepped right into rookie ball and has already popped 2 homers in 6 games, one of which was the inside the park variety. He’s also tacked on 5 steals with a 4/2 K/BB. He wasn’t highly drafted as a 4th round pick, and there is nothing he can do in rookie ball to really get the hype going as a college player, but he has the bloodlines and a fantasy friendly profile with plus speed and good feel to hit. If the power can take a jump, there is definitely potential for him to become an intriguing prospect.

Jace Jung DET, 2B, 22.9 – Jung might not have the shiny new toy excitement that the new draftees have, but he’s been quietly having a killer season that got a whole lot louder yesterday after smashing 2 homers at Double-A. He now has 3 homers with a 9/1 K/BB in 6 games at the level after handling his business at High-A with 14 homers and a 22.7%/15.3% K%/BB% in 81 games. He’ll be a no doubt Top 100 prospect in no time if he keeps this up in the upper minors, if he’s not there already.

John Cruz NYY, OF, 17.11 – I named Cruz a target in my latest Dynasty Baseball Targets article (Patreon), and he’s getting hot again after homering in 3 of his last 6 games in rookie ball as a 17 year old. He’s now slashing .264/.350/.512 with 8 homers, 6 steals, and a 23.8%/10.5% K%/BB% in 33 games. He has the elite upside to back up the numbers with a vicious lefty swing and plus athleticism at 6’3”, 171 pounds. I actually just scooped him up in my 30 team mid season prospect blind auction. I would grab him in all league sizes at this point.

Christopher Sanchez PHI, LHP, 26.7 – 5 IP, 0 hits, 0 ER, 3/2 K/BB vs. PIT. Sanchez threw a modern day no hitter right after I talked shit about him on Halp’s Dynasty Baseball Podcast: July Mailbag (Patreon) on Friday (I hit on a ton of topics in that podcast, including Jordan Walker, Riley Greene, CJ Abrams, softball batting stances, Everson Pereira, Ezequiel Duran, and many more). The fastball averaged 90.6 MPH and he put up an 11% whiff% overall. This just isn’t a profile I’m going after, and while he’s currently showing elite control with a 4.3% BB% in 47.1 IP, he’s never shown even close to this level of control in the past. If you can cash in on him for a solid prospect return before the trade deadline based on his 2.66 ERA, I would do so.

AJ Smith-Shawver ATL, RHP, 20.7 – Shawver got called back up the bigs and scuffled a bit vs. Milwaukee, going 5 IP with 4 hits, 3 ER, and a 3/4 K/BB. The fastball averaged 94.5 MPH and he put up a 21% whiff% with a traditional 4 pitch mix. He hasn’t blown the doors off the majors and he also hasn’t been that great at Triple-A (4.44 ERA in 24.1 IP), but you have to take into account that this kid should probably still be at High-A. I love the stuff, I love Atlanta’s faith in him promoting him so fast, and I love that he is even able to hold his own against advanced competition. I’m still all in on Shawver long term.

Matt Sauer NYY, RHP, 24.6 – Nobody wants to give my man Sauer any love at all, but I still stand by that this guy is going to surprise some people down the line. He threw a gem yesterday, going 5 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER, and a 7/0 K/BB at Double-A. Here he is consistently throwing mid 90’s heat with a filthy breaking ball and a solid changeup. This was his best outing of the season and he battled arm troubles which delayed the start of his year, but I can’t be the only one to see the legit talent he has in his arm. I still like him in deeper leagues.

Hayden Birdsong SFG, RHP, 21.9 – Birdsong rose to 237th overall in my latest rankings, and he had another strong outing yesterday, going 4 IP with 5 hits, 1 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB at High-A. He’s 6’4”, 215 pounds with a plus mid 90’s fastball and a 4 pitch mix with a plus slider as his best secondary. It’s led to a 3.09 ERA and 33.1%/6.6% K%/BB% in 32 IP at the level. I’m a big fan.

Heston Kjerstad BAL, OF, 24.5 – Kjerstad has quickly become a near elite prospect befitting of his 2nd overall pick draft pedigree now that he is finally healthy, and he kept it going yesterday after smoking his 7th homer in 39 games at Triple-A. He’s been utterly obliterating the upper minors all year with 18 homers and a 64/28 K/BB in 85 games. The only question is where he fits in on a loaded Orioles team and if he gets traded before the deadline.

Parker Meadows DET, OF, 23.7 – Meadows smushed his 16th homer in 97 games at Triple-A, and he’s been trying to kick that door down to the majors of late with a .960 OPS in his last 20 games. He has a fantasy friendly profile with a plus power/speed combo (15 steals) and is entering great stash territory is any league size. His time is coming.

Owen Caissie CHC, OF, 21.0 – Caissie hit his 18th homer in 84 games at Double-A, which isn’t notable because we already know about the monster power, but what is notable is that it came with 0 K’s. In fact, he’s only struck out once in his last 18 PA. It brings his K% with the regular, non tacked ball down to 27.9% in 13 games, and like I mentioned, it’s been even better over his last 4 games. He’ll always be a high K guy, but it’s looking like the over the top K% with the pre-tacked ball was not a true measure of his talent level. His stock continues to rise as one of the top power hitting prospects in the minors.

Orelvis Martinez TOR, SS, 21.6 – Speaking of one of the top power hitting prospects in the minors, Martinez demolished his 2nd homer in 10 games since getting called up to Triple-A, and he’s maintained his much improved plate approach with a 9/6 K/BB. Even with the improved plate approach I still wouldn’t expect a high BA because he’s a perpetual low BABIP guy, but the guy is going to mash at any level.

Charlie Pagliarini SEA, 3B, 22.7 – I couldn’t do this little draft class pro debut update without mentioning Pagliarini. The 19th round pick has already cracked 3 dingers in just 5 games in rookie ball, and the power is most certainly real with him cracking 24 homers in the MAAC. He was a 22 year old senior with hit tool issues, which is why he got drafted so late, and doing it in rookie ball doesn’t mean much, but it can’t hurt to at least keep him in the back of your mind.

Jared Sundstrom SEA, OF, 22.1 – Sundstrom is another one to at least keep in mind in deep leagues. The 6’3”, 225 pound 10th round pick is already making waves at Single-A after cracking a grand slam for his first pro homer and then following that up with a 2 run bomb for his 2nd. He’s also doing it with a strong 15.4% K% in 3 games. Like Pagliarini, he’s already 22 and will need to do a lot more to become someone to really go after, but his performance warrants a mention to close out this Rundown.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)