Ivan Melendez – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on July 19, 2023July 28, 2023 by Michael Halpern

The Wednesday Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/19/23)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays (and I guess Wednesdays sometimes when I get jammed up, ha) throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Wednesday Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/19/23):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 473 JULY DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 331 JUNE DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (7/14/23)
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (6/29/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JUNE MAILBAG! (6/27/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

*I was on an extended weekend family trip on Monday and Tuesday that I thought I was going to be able to write during but it turned out I couldn’t. My bad.

Francisco Alvarez NYM, C, 21.7 – When I ranked Alvarez 92nd overall on the Updated July Top 473 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon), he was in the midst of slumping, but I didn’t let it scare me off him, and he’s been molten hot since. He went 2 for 3 with a 108.6 MPH homer off Lucas Gioltio and a 106.5 MPH homer of Tanner Banks. It was his 18th and 19th homers of the year in 69 games, and he now has a 7 homers with a 1.363 OPS in 11 July games. He leads all catchers in the homer category and he’s done it in far less at bats. This is just the beginning.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand CIN, 1B/3B, 23.6 – That unsurprisingly didn’t take long. Strand walloped his first MLB homer in his 2nd game with a 426 foot, 105.8 MPH bomb. How could anyone have guessed a guy who hit 20 homers with a .331 BA in 67 games at Triple-A would be good? Maybe it was that extra month or two at Triple-A that really put the finishing touches on him 😉

Bryce Elder ATL, RHP, 24.0 – In the easiest regression call of all time, Elder had his 2nd clunker in a row, going 6 IP with 12 ER and a 4/5 K/BB (5 ER in 2.2 IP last night). This is why I just never really bought into him, and while he can still be a decent fantasy starter, his 4.12 xERA has always been more indicative of his true talent level.

Lazaro Montes SEA, OF, 18.8 – Montes is officially going full breakout after cracking 2 homers yesterday and 3 homers in his last 2 games at stateside rookie ball. He’s improved on his danger zone K% of 33.2% in 2022, bringing it down to a not horrific 27.9% this year, and he’s still walking a ton with a 23.1% BB%. It’s all added up to a 145 wRC+ in 26 games. He’s right on track to become an elite power hitting prospect.

Sebastian Walcott TEX, SS, 17.3 – 3 for 4 with a double, and most importantly, he didn’t strike out once. The strikeouts are the only blemish on his profile with a 29%/4.3% K%/BB% in 15 games in stateside rookie ball, but considering he’s still only 17 years old, and his otherwise insane production (6 homers, 6 steals, and a 181 wRC+) it is very easy to overlook. He was my #1 international prospect target, hyping him hard (with a side of Joendry Vargas who is also killing it in the DSL right now) in my First Year Player Draft Target and Strategy Guide (Patreon) all the way back on January 5th, writing, “Sebastian Walcott TEX, SS, 17.1/ Joendry Vargas LAD, SS, 17.5 – I love searching for that relatively underrated international prospect. The guy who isn’t getting hyped up at the very top of the class but I think should be. It was Alexander Ramirez for me in 2020 (big hit), Maikol Hernandez in 2021 (oof), Lazaro Montes in 2022 (looking good), and in 2023, it’s Sabastian Walcott. This dude looks like a next level athlete in the sparse Youtube videos out there. It’s what made me fall in love so much with Ramirez and Montes, and that was worked out for me. Walcott even stands out relative to the other elite athletes in his class. Vargas is getting some more rankings love than Walcott, but still isn’t really talked about like the very top guys yet. He’s also a good international target.” Walcott started to get a lot more love later in the off-season, but you were already all over him early if you read my stuff.

Xavier Isaac TBR, 1B, 19.6 – Isaac has continued to quietly establish himself as a future elite hitting prospect. He demolished a 440 foot no doubter yesterday for his 3rd in 4 games and his 9th in 64 games. The GB% continues to come down to a reasonable 46.4%, and he has an excellent plate approach with a 19.9%/14.7% K%/BB%. It’s all led to a 141 wRC+. He rose to 68th overall on the June Top Top 331 Prospects Rankings (Patreon), and he’ll take another big jump in the Updated July Prospects Rankings coming next week.

Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.4 – The Southern League is in the post pre-tacked ball era, and Chourio is loving every minute of it, smoking an opposite field homer yesterday and is now 10 for 18 with 2 doubles, 2 homers and a 1/1 K/BB in 4 games with the normal ball. He’s basically picked right up from the destruction he laid last year. I wouldn’t say we should completely throw out the first half stats of all players in the Southern League, but it’s going to be mighty interesting to see the difference from the 1st half to the 2nd half. I didn’t budge off Chourio with his good, but not explosive 1st half, and now he’s exploding all over again.

Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.6 – Dominguez is getting hot again. He went deep for the 2nd time in 3 games and now has a .934 OPS with 7 steals and a 14/8 K/BB in 13 July games. It think the backlash against Dominguez’ ridiuclous hype as a 17 year old has made him underrated over the past couple years. He’s a 20 year old at Double-A with a 108 wRC+ and a nasty power/speed combo (12 homers and 25 steals in 80 games).

Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 21.3 – My #6 ranked prospect on the June Top 331 Rankings, Armstrong has been an extra base machine since returning from the break. He smushed his 11th homer in 64 games at Double-A yesterday and now has 3 doubles, 1 triple, and 1 homer in his last 14 AB. The power explosion is exciting considering his speed (23 steals) and defense, and while the 24%/7.7% K%/BB% isn’t great, it’s not bad either. I’m all in on Armstrong and have been since his draft year.

Evan Carter TEX, OF, 20.10 – What lack of power? Carter deposited his 10th homer of the season right in the lazy river. He’s been on fire since returning from injury, slashing .354/.426/.622 with 5 homers, 2 steals (in 6 attempts) and a 18/10 K/BB in 21 games. The only real blemish on his season is a terrible stolen base success rate (11 for 18), but I think we can overlook that with the power uptick and great plate approach.

Emmanuel Rodriguez MIN, OF, 20.4 – It’s been an up and down season for Baby Bonds, and we’re now back on the upswing with his first homer since June 23rd. He has a .914 OPS in his last 6 games after going 0 for 22 in the 8 games before that. That is a microcosm of his entire season, but a 131 wRC+ with 11 homers and 11 steals in 60 games at High-A ain’t too shabby at all. The 31.8% K% and .214 BA prevents a true explosion to elite prospect status, but his value has at least held steady this year.

Ceddanne Rafaela BOS, OF, 22.3 – All Rafaela has done at Triple-A is hit dingers, and I mean that in both a good and bad way. He smoked his 5th homer in 15 games at the level, but it comes with a 25%/1.5% K%/BB%. The extremely low walk rates are a bit concerning, but he makes up for it with plus speed and plus defense. The profile isn’t that far off from Pete Crow, and he’s now knocking on the door of the bigs.

Jett Williams NYM, SS, 19.8 – Jett may be only 5’6”, but he’s starting to look pretty thick (in a good way), and he’s proving he has enough juice in his bat to make a legit impact. He launched his 5th homer in 70 games at Single-A yesterday and it comes with 29 steals and a 20.6%/19.6% K%/BB%. He only has a .243 BA because the GB% is probably a little too low for his type of profile with a 35.2% GB%, but that is a much easier fix than trying to learn how to lift the ball more. It’s a damn exciting fantasy profile and he is very easily a top 100 fantasy prospect.

Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 22.1 – Jones crushed his 11th homer in 72 games off a pretty nice looking curve that caught too much of the plate. We already know about the power and speed, and his plate approach has looked much better of late with a 24.3%/14.8% K%/BB% in his last 31 games. I would say he’s conquered High-A at this point and is just waiting for his next challenge in the upper minors.

Tyler Black MIL, 2B, 22.11 – Black was one of my first buy calls of the season, and he’s went on to just continue crushing the upper minors all year. He went 4 for 6 with a frozen rope homer yesterday and is now slashing .282/.427/.524 with 13 homers, 42 steals, and a 20.3%/16.8% K%/BB% in 70 games at Double-A. Call me crazy, but I think he’s ready for Triple-A.

Coby Mayo BAL, 3B, 21.6/Orelvis Martinez TOR, SS, 21.6 – Another day, another dinger. Mayo and Orelvis both went deep again, and it was both of their 18th homers. It was also both of their first homers at Triple-A after recently getting called up to the level. I prefer Mayo, but they are both elite power hitting prospects.

Christian Scott NYM, RHP, 24.1 – 7 IP, 6 hits, 2 ER, 8/0 K/BB at Double-A. Scott transitioned into a full time starter role after being mostly used out of the pen in his career, and he’s taken to it well with a 3.22 ERA and 28.8%/5% K%/BB% in 36.1 IP at Double-A. He’s a big dude at 6’4”, 215 pounds and the stuff is very good with a mid 90’s fastball and plus slider. He might still end up in the pen when it’s all said and done, but there is definitely mid rotation upside and he’s definitely an exciting pop up pitching prospect.

Ty Madden DET, RHP, 23.4 – 4.2 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 8/2 K/BB at Double-A. Madden has always felt a bit underrated to me. He has the size (6’3”, 215), velocity (mid 90’s heat), diverse pitch mix (fastball, slider, curve, change), and production (3.68 ERA with a 27.1%/9.5% K%/BB%) to make a legit fantasy impact. He’s not a bad low key target if you are struggling to acquire pitching as he’s also close to the bigs.

Logan Allen CLE, LHP, 24.11 – Allen is back in the majors and it didn’t take long for him to re-establish himself, going 5 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 8/1 K/BB vs. Pitt. The changeup was a whiff machine with a 50% whiff% and it led to a 29% whiff% on the day. The stuff isn’t huge with a 90.4 MPH fastball in this one, and he’s not an elite control guy, which limits his upside, but the guy knows how to pitch and can miss bats. It’s a #4-ish starter profile.

Jordan Beck COL, OF, 22.2 – Beck got the call to Double-A post break and he had his first big day at the level, going 2 for 4 with a triple and a homer. He has a 115 wRC+ in 4 games but it comes with a 46.2%/0.0% K%/BB%. It’s still obviously too small of a sample to say anything in either direction, but the one thing to watch is that K%, because we know about the big talent at 6’3”, 225 pounds with a plus power/speed combo. He was one of my targets in my Top 9 Dynasty Baseball Targets (Patreon) from a few weeks ago.

Victor Scott STL, OF, 22.3 – Double-A hasn’t slowed Scott down at all. He lined his 2nd homer in 13 games and is now slashing .333/.377/.491 with 2 homers, 6 steals, and a 12.9%/4.8% K%/BB% in 13 games at the level. He rose to 233rd overall on the latest prospect rankings, and that is set to take another big jump next week. He’s legitimately exciting with a plus contact/speed profile.

Jud Fabian BAL, OF, 22.7 – Fabian smacked his 5th homer at 20 games since getting called up to Double-A, but unfortunately his hit tool has basically been a worst case scenario with a .171 BA and 37.6% K%. That is exactly what we didn’t want to see, but he’s made adjustments in the past, and we have to give him some time to make adjustments again against upper minors pitchers.

Ivan Melendez ARI, 1B, 23.7 – Melendez got the call to Double-A, and literally all he’s done is rip dingers. He cracked 2 homers yesterday and he now has 4 homers in 3 games at the level. He wasn’t too bad at High-A either with 18 homers in 58 games. He’s certainly made up for his lackluster debut in 2022, but he still isn’t without his warts with a 33.6%/8.2% K%/BB% (30.8%/7.7% K%/BB% at Double-A). It is a bit of a Quad-A type slugger profile, and he’s also hit lefties much better than righties. A low BA, part time power bat might be the most likely outcome, but he’s left little doubt that he will be able to mash homers at any level.

Alek Manoah TOR, RHP, 25.6 – 3 IP, 3 hits, 4 ER. 0/5 K/BB vs. SDP … oof, still brutal

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on August 8, 2022August 8, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (8/8/22)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (8/8/22):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT, INCLUDING:
-MID-SEASON TOP 314 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 437 JULY 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 10 TRADE NEGOTIATION TACTICS (one of my favorite things I’ve ever written)
-TOP 10 MID-SEASON TRADE TARGETS
-MID-SEASON OBP TOP 447 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-MID-SEASON POINTS/6+CATS/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 430 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 40 2023 FYPD RANKINGS

Jacob Berry MIA, OF/3B/1B, 21.2 – The 6th pick in this year’s draft, Berry has done nothing but struggle since entering pro ball. He went 0 for 3 yesterday at Single-A and is now 5 for 35 with 0 extra base hits and a 7/3 K/BB in 9 games split between rookie ball and Single-A. He’s not great on D, so the bat needs to really pop. It’s obviously too small of a sample to draw any conclusions, but I can’t help but have visions of JJ Bleday flash through my mind.

Ivan Melendez ARI, 1B, 22.7 – 0 for 3 with a 1/1 K/BB at Single-A. Talk about needing the bat to carry the day, Melendez is all bat as a 1B only prospect who got drafted as a college senior at 43rd overall. He’s 3 for 19 with 0 extra base hits and a 8/4 K/BB in 7 games split between rookie ball and Single-A. If he doesn’t start tearing apart the lower minors in short order, it will be hard for me to buy into him in off-season first year player drafts.

Peyton Graham DET, SS, 21.6 – One of my favorite targets from the 2022 draft class, ranking 17th overall on my Top 40 2023 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon), Graham is showing off the wheels early in his career, snagging his 2nd bag yesterday in 2 games at Single-A. He’s 2 for 7 with a 2/1 K/BB in the early going. He got drafted 51st overall, so the value should be there in off-season drafts.

Samuel Zavala SDP, OF, 18.0 – It took only 10 games in stateside rookie ball where Zavala put up a 1.033 OPS for him to get the call to Single-A, and he made his mark at the level yesterday with his first homer in 5 games. He’s not overmatched against the advanced competition at all with a .793 OPS and 5/4 K/BB. His value has the potential to absolutely explode down the stretch.

Jacob deGrom NYM, RHP, 33.11 – 5.1 IP, 1 hit, 2 ER, 12/1 K/BB vs. ATL. The fastball averaged 99.1 MPH and the slider put up a 90% whiff%. There is a reason I refused to budge his dynasty ranking even with the injury (36th overall on the Top 437 July Dynasty Baseball Rankings that dropped last week on Patreon), because the level of dominance is just silly. I also don’t take age into account as much for pitchers as I do hitters because pitching is so volatile and risky no matter what the age, and younger pitchers are arguably more risky than older pitchers.

Jesus Luzardo MIA, LHP, 24.8 – 7 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 6/1 K/BB vs. CHC. The fastball velocity hasn’t been what it once was with it sitting 95.5 MPH, but I’ll take that tradeoff any day of the week for the improved control he’s shown. An 11/1 K/BB in 12 IP since returning from injury is very encouraging. His stock is on the rise.

Triston McKenzie CLE, RHP, 25.0 – 8 IP, 2 hit, 0 ER, 8/1 K/BB vs. HOU. McKenzie found his control again this season with a sparkling 6.7% BB% (11.7% in 2021). His fastball isn’t good enough (92.4 MPH with a 91.4 MPH EV against) to consistently miss his spots. He’s not as good as his 3.16 ERA indicates (3.89 xERA), but he’s picking up from where he left off in his excellent 2020 rookie season.

Matt Manning DET, RHP, 24.6 – 7 IP, 4 hits, 0 ER, 7/3 K/BB vs. TB. Don’t get suckered in. The fastball sat only 92.2 MPH and the spin rates on his breaking balls were still poor. Stay away.

Alex Kirilloff MIN, 1B/OF, 24.6 – Kirilloff just can’t shake this wrist injury as he’s set to undergo season ending wrist surgery. It’s sadly the last straw if you were on the fence about keeping him or not. In a shallow to medium size league, it could be time to move on if there is something enticing out there on the waiver wire.

Jorge Mateo BAL, OF/2B/SS, 27.0 – 2 for 3 with a cute little 355 foot, 95.5 MPH homer. Mateo is running up his fantasy numbers with 11 homers and 26 steals, but he’s taking advantage of Baltimore’s last season of rebuilding, because a 85 wRC+ is not going to get the job done when they promote all of their top prospect talent next season. I know Baltimore is 4 games over .500, but Mike Elias was smart to not get caught up in the fairy tale season of plucky underdogs. It won’t be long before they are the hated favorites. Be careful trading for Mateo expecting full time playing time beyond this season.

Brett Baty NYM, 3B, 22.8 – The only thing missing was homer power, and it ain’t missing anymore as Baty demolished his 19th homer at Double-A out to deep centerfield off Deivi Garcia. He now has a .950 OPS in 89 games. He still has only a 30.3% FB%, and a 25.2% K% ain’t great, so a 5×5 BA league might not be his bread and butter, but he’s easily a Top 20 prospect in any league that values good real life hitters (Pts, 6+ cats, OBP, OPS etc …). And even in a 5×5 BA league he’s a damn good prospect. It’s time for Triple-A.

Luis Matos SFG, OF, 20.4 – Look who decided to finally show up to the 2022 season. Matos homered for the 2nd time in 3 games and now has a .903 OPS in his last 5 games at High-A. Problem is that it comes with a 6/1 K/BB, which makes it hard for me to really buy back in. He’s still flirting with Top 100 prospect status for me, so I’m not giving up on him, but it’s been a disaster year.

Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 19.11 – Lawlar is starting to come alive at High-A, going 4 for 6 with a homer and double yesterday. The overall line at the level is still rough with a .700 OPS and 23/4 K/BB in 19 games, but after putting up a 1.051 OPS at Single-A, it’s likely just a slump that coincided with him getting promoted. He’s a top 10 prospect.

Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 21.11 – 3 for 5 with a double, homer, and 2 K’s at Triple-A. People were starting to talk some smack about Carroll’s swing and miss, so of course not only did he improve that aspect of his game, but he did it after getting promoted to Triple-A with a 15/15 K/BB in 18 games. He’s the undisputed top prospect in the game, but he’s lucky Chourio went on a mini cold streak (1 for his last 14) because Chourio was charging hard for that top spot.

Tyler Soderstrom OAK, C/1B, 20.8 – Soderstrom got the call to Double-A last week and he now has a .857 OPS in 6 games after going 3 for 5 with a double last night. It comes with a 6/0 K/BB, which is basically exactly what he was doing at High-A with big power and a weak plate approach. He’s played more games at 1B than catcher this year, so at best you’re hoping for enough games behind the plate to qualify, but it’s not something I would bank on when planning the future of my team. I would assume he ends up 1B only and anything extra is icing on the cake.

Vaughn Grissom ATL, SS, 21.6 – Grissom unloaded for his 3rd homer in 21 games at Double-A. He’s had no problems at the level with a 137 wRC+ and 7 steals. He rose all the way to 33rd overall on the July Top 314 Dynasty Prospects Rankings (Patreon), and he will rise even higher on the August Rankings that drop tomorrow.

MJ Melendez KCR, C, 23.6 – 2 for 3 with a 406 foot bomb. Melendez is quietly having an excellent rookie season with a strong plate approach (25.9%/11.4% K%/BB%), a respectable whiff% (28.2%), and no doubt power (90.5 MPH EV). He’s one of the top young catchers in the game.

Tanner Bibee CLE, RHP, 23.4 – 6 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 6/0 K/BB at Double-A. Bibee’s value was already rising, and it’s set to take off now that he is dominating Double-A with a 1.71 ERA and 32/3 K/BB in 31.1 IP. The fastball has jumped up into the mid 90’s this year and he’s in one of the best pitching development organizations in the game. He’s a pick up in any size league.

DL Hall BAL, LHP, 23.10 – 5.1 IP, 5 hits, 2 ER, 8/3 K/BB at Triple-A. I hope you like your strikeouts with a side of walks because a 14% BB% is definitely worrisome.

Matthew Liberatore STL, LHP, 22.9 – 6 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 10/3 K/BB at Triple-A. Despite the great start, 2022 has been a step back for Liberatore with him struggling in both the majors (5.33 ERA) and the minors (4.77 ERA). He’s still a talented prospect, but if you can get good value for him based on his name value, I would jump on it.

Kerry Carpenter DET, OF, 24.11 – Carpenter hit a laser to the opposite field for his 2nd homer in 2 games and 29th homer in 95 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. His plate approach seriously improved when he hit Triple-A with a 17/17 K/BB in 33 games. Detroit’s entire roster is basically wide open, making Carpenter a good add if you need power down the stretch.

Wenceel Perez DET, 2B, 22.9 – Continuing the take a shot on fringy-ish Detroit prospects theme, Perez ripped his 5th homer in 35 games at Double-A. He’s had strong contact rates his entire career (13.4%/10/1% K%/BB% at Double-A), and his power is ticking up this year with his groundball percentage dropping all the way to 32.1% (51% in 2021). He’s fast, but his stolen base track record in the minors makes me hesitant to project 20+ steals for him (5 for 9 at Double-A). He’s likely a low upside solid across the board type.

Darick Hall PHI, 1B, 27.1 – 2 for 4 with 2 bombs off Cory Abbott. Hall has done nothing but destroy baseballs since getting called up with an elite 92.2/97.5 MPH AVG/FB EV, and it’s led to a .933 OPS in 109 PA. He looks like strictly a platoon bat, and a 27.5%/4.6% K%/BB% is going to make his BA a problem long term, but he’s proving he can mash with the best of them.

Peyton Burdick MIA, OF, 25.4 – 1 for 3 with a 108.6 MPH, 421 foot homer for his first MLB bomb in 3 games. He hit .229 at Triple-A, so he’ll tank your BA, but he has value in an OBP league with high walk rates his entire career. He’s worth a shot in a medium to deep OBP league.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)