Jackson Chourio – Page 2 – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on September 11, 2023September 11, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (9/11/23)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (9/11/23):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON & OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-SEPTEMBER TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-AUGUST TOP 379 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-7 END OF SEASON STRATEGIES AND THOUGHTS
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: AUGUST MAILBAG! (8/25/23)
-TOP 38 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (8/15/23)
-TOP 17 DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (8/3/23)
-Off-Season content includes team prospect lists, deep positional rankings, strategy articles, and very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.7 – It turns out even Martians have UCL’s, and they apparently aren’t that sturdy as the The Martian tore his UCL and will require Tommy John surgery that could keep him out through the first half of 2024 as well. Tommy John surgery isn’t as big a deal for hitters as it is for pitchers, but it feels like it came at the worst possible time with him in the midst of a historic MLB debut with 4 homers in his first 8 games. He checked in at #97 on the September Top 476 Dynasty Baseball Rankings that dropped on the Patreon last week, but with the injury, I might drop him more towards the 120 range.

Noelvi Marte CIN, SS, 21.10 – These rookies are dropping like flies. Marte broke his nose after getting hit in the face playing catch with Elly De La Cruz. I always hated getting paired up with the kid who threw a 90 MPH tailing fastball in warmups, but unlike Marte, I always managed to actually catch the ball. Score one for Halp. On the other hand, I did break my nose while playing basketball my freshman year of college, and the ER doctor just said, “yup, it’s broken,” and sent me back out there with nothing they could do for it. I sat out a few days of my volleyball class before getting bored and deciding to play through it. I’m assuming Marte will do the same. He was in the midst of shoving it in all the scouts faces who called him fat and slow this off-season with 6 steals and a 28.8 ft/sec sprint speed, which is in the top 14 percent of the league. I feel like speed grades are by far the least reliable from scouts. He was also crushing the ball with a 92.4 MPH EV. All signs point towards him being a fantasy beast.

Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 21.5/Wyatt Langford TEX, OF, 21.8 – In my 7 End of Season Strategies and Thoughts (Patreon) article, I wrote that your focus should be on 2023 draftees, because that is where the largest swings in value will occur this late in the season, and right now, the first swing in value could be happening at the very top of the FYPD rankings. Crews continues to surprisingly struggle hard at Double-A with a measly 39 wRC+ in 16 games, while Langford recently got the call to the level and keeps on rolling with a 142 wRC+ in 6 games. They were already 1A and 1B for me in the rankings, and their Double-A performance could be tipping the scales to Langford for that top spot. It’s still obviously a small sample, and I would be very happy with either, but if I were picking today, I’m going Langford.

Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.9 – Holliday finally met a level he couldn’t just dominate right from the jump with a 64 wRC+, 0 homers and 0 steals in 6 games at Triple-A, but I’m sure the hot streak is coming as he went 2 for 3 with a double and 2 walks last night, and he has an elite 10%/16.7% K%/BB%. I mentioned in the August Top 379 Prospects Rankings that the one blemish (I wouldn’t even really call it a blemish, more of a smudge) on his profile is that the power/speed combo has slowed down in the upper minors with only 3 homers and 3 steals in his last 42 games. He has only 10 homers in 113 games on the season. He’s only 19, and the season he just had is ridiculous for his age, so it seems silly to even mention, but when there is another uber 19 year old in Jackson Chourio right behind him, it’s at least something to think about if you are choosing between the 2 in startup dynasty drafts this off-season.

Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.6 – Speaking of Chourio, he hits dingers in his sleep, and he smacked his 22nd of the season at Double-A going the opposite way. It also comes with 41 steals. We got a couple of really fun debates coming up this off-season at both the top of first year player drafts (Crews vs. Langford) and at the top of prospect drafts (Holliday vs. Chourio).

Paul Skenes PIT, RHP, 21.2/Yoshinobu Yamamoto FA, RHP, 25.1 – The fun debates don’t end with the hitters, because we have one brewing with who should be the first pitcher off the board in First Year Player Drafts as well. While everyone is slicing and dicing Skenes fastball shape, Yamamoto is out there pitching no hitters in Japan on Friday. He’s having a spotless season with a 1.20 ERA and 152/24 K/BB in 150 IP. He has the filthy stuff, plus control, plus durability, diverse pitch mix, plus strikeout rates, athletic delivery … there is nothing he doesn’t have, and I think he will make it very tough to pass him up in favor of Skenes. Right now, I have Yamamoto as the top dog.

Druw Jones ARI, OF, 19.8 – Look who finally decided to join us for the 2023 season. Jones is showing up fashionably late, or maybe at this point he’s just rudely late, but he finally showed up nonetheless. He went 3 for 5 with a stolen base yesterday and is now slashing .339/.438/.500 with 2 homers, 6 steals, and a 15/11 K/BB in his last 16 games at Single-A. It brings his season wRC+ at the level to an above average 104 in 29 games, which takes his season from a total disaster to just disappointing. Coming off the shoulder surgery and the myriad of injuries he suffered this year, it’s fair to write this season off as a lost year, and with him showing signs of life here, he might make for a good buy low this off-season.

Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 21.5 – With every top prospect and their mother getting called up to the majors, Petey Crow must be feeling pretty lonely still at Triple-A, and he’s taking his frustration out on the baseball. He went 4 for 5 yesterday with a double and a grand salami. It’s his second grand slam in 6 games, and there is really nothing left for him to prove in the minors. His path to the majors isn’t exactly wide open, but he’s not really blocked either. I’m expecting a callup before the end of the season, but who knows really. Update: Literally minutes after publishing this article it was announced PCA will be called up to the bigs. Perfect timing ha

Jackson Jobe DET, RHP, 20.10 – Jobe got a late start to the season coming off a serious back injury, so you are forgiven if it slipped by you that he very well might have a legitimate case to be the best pitching prospect in baseball. He threw another gem yesterday, going 5 IP with 5 hits, 1 ER, and a 7/0 K/BB at High-A. Here is a highlight reel of the filth. He now has a 3.10 ERA with a 78/6 K/BB in 58 IP. He throws 3 at least plus pitches in his fastball, slider, and changeup. If his hype doesn’t explode this off-season like it should, he will be a major target.

Barrett Kent LAA, RHP, 18.11 – The 6’4”, 215 pound Kent was an 8th round pick in this year’s draft, but he signed for almost $1 million, so you know how much LA liked him. He’s now turning heads in pro ball after making his full season debut at Single-A yesterday, going 4 IP with 2 hit, 0 ER, and a 5/1 K/BB. The fastball sat low to mid 90’s and he broke off some nasty changeups. He’s shaping up to be a nice later round target if you stock up on hitters early.

Michael King NYY, RHP, 28.3 – The Yankees rotation is crumbling piece by piece, but one man has risen from the ashes, and we call that man King (because that’s his name). Michael King is becoming a very enticing target this off-season after being transitioned to the rotation, and he had another great outing on Saturday, going 5 IP with 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 9/1 K/BB vs. MIL. The sinker sat 94.8 MPH, the changeup notched a 71% whiff% and the sweeper notched a 43% whiff%. It’s his 3rd straight excellent start in a row, and as you can see, he most certainly has the stuff to back it up. He was a starter in the minors, and a damn good one at that with a 2.96 ERA in 392.2 career MiLB IP, so none of this is foreign to him. He could be legit.

Kevin Alcantara CHC, OF, 21.2 – Alcantara closed out his season with a bang, going 4 for 4 with a double, homer, and a play at the plate which showed off his flair for the dramatic. He got off to a slow start on the season, but he’s been a man possessed over his last 62 games, slashing .330/.401/.540 with 9 homers, 5 steals, and a 57/27 K/BB at High-A. He has an excellent 124 wRC+ in 95 games on the season. Don’t sleep on this 6”6”, 188 pound unicorn athlete, because the hype could explode when he takes on the upper minors in 2024.

Myles Naylor OAK, SS, 18.5 – Naylor 3.0 was drafted 39th overall in this year’s draft, and he’s off to an extreme start, both good and bad, in his pro debut. He went deep for his 6th homer in 34 games at mostly Single-A yesterday, but it comes with a brutal 39.6% K%. That is in Elijah Green cover your eyes territory. You have to love the bloodlines (Josh and Bo are his older brothers) and the power, but that K% has to scare you off at least a little.

Victor Scott STL, OF, 22.6 – Scott is an absolute machine on the bases as he once again nabbed 3 bags in a game. It’s the 8th time he’s done that this year. His contact/speed profile has had no issues at Double-A with a 14.3% K%, 43 steals, 6 homers and a .328 BA in 60 games at the level. Make no mistake, Scott is one of the top speed prospects in all of baseball. Easy Top 100 prospect.

AJ Vukovich ARI, 3B, 22.1 – Vukovich has very quietly put together a strong season at Double-A, and it got stronger yesterday with him cracking a dinger. It’s his 2nd homer in 3 games, 3rd homer in 6 games, 4th homer in 10 games, 5th homer in 19 games, 6th homer in 29 games, 7th homer in 37 games, 8th homer in 39 games, 9th homer in 40 games … you get the point, he has a lot of homers (24 homers in 110 games at Double-A to be exact) ;). He’s a big dude at 6’2”, 210 pounds, and he’s also an excellent athlete, evidenced by 17 steals. The plate approach is rough with a 28.3%/8.8% K%/BB%, so there is risk, but he’s a legitimately exciting prospect. He checked in at #234 on the August Top 379 Prospects Rankings (Patreon).

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on September 4, 2023September 11, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 476 September 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

It’s Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week over on the Patreon, and as usual, I’m going over 400 deep with blurbs for just about every player. Top 30 free here on the Brick Wall. August-Off-Season Rankings are in parenthesis, in that order. Here is the Top 476 September 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON & OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-AUGUST TOP 379 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-7 END OF SEASON STRATEGIES AND THOUGHTS
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: AUGUST MAILBAG! (8/25/23)
-TOP 38 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (8/15/23)
-TOP 17 DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (8/3/23)
-Off-Season content includes team prospect lists, deep positional rankings, strategy articles, and very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

1) (2) (2) (2) (2) (3) (3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 25.10 – 30/60 (actually 32/63 and counting). He also just cracked the hardest hit ball of the year at 121.2 MPH. With Ohtani’s injury, he’s the clear #1 in dynasty

2) (3) (3) (8) (24) (24) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 23.0 – 1.208 OPS with 3 homers and 4 steals in his last 14 games. We can officially push the shoulder injury to the back of our minds

3) (5) (5) (4) (3) (2) (2) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 22.8 – I saw the heater coming in last month’s update, and it is officially here, slashing .384/.424/.692 with 11 homers, 14 steals, and a 36/8 K/BB in his last 35 games. The plate approach is still below average, but at only 22 years old, I’m betting on improvement there in future years. We still haven’t seen his prime

4) (6) (12) (13) (13) (13) (8) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS/3B, 23.3 – The inevitable breakout hasn’t slowed down in the last month, slashing .322/.369/.628 with 10 homers, 10 steals, and a 15/8 K/BB in 29 games

5) (4) (4) (5) (7) (9) (7) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, SS/OF, 24.7 – He hasn’t performed up to prime levels with a relatively pedestrian .784 OPS, but he’s been on the unlucky side (.337 wOBA vs. .379 xwOBA) and the elite tools are still there with a 92.4 MPH EV and 29.2 ft/sec sprint. I’m buying if there is any type of discount here at all this off-season

6) (7) (8) (9) (4) (4) (6) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 26.8 – Tucker’s about to have the quietest 30/30 season of all time

7) (8) (6) (8) (11) (7) (5) Juan Soto SDP, OF, 24.11 – I hate to say it, but Soto could really be cementing himself as a better real life than fantasy hitter with 6 steals, a 5.8 degree launch (28 homers), and .261 BA (.272 xBA). He’s obviously still a total beast that you want to keep betting on no matter how you slice the numbers, but I think it’s at least worth mentioning

8) (16) (21) (41) (51) (27) (30) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 26.1 – 128 games played has shattered his previous career high, and staying healthy is all he had to do to blow up with 35 homers and 17 steals. Let’s hold our breath on this little quad injury he’s dealing with now as we get deeper into the fantasy playoffs

9) (10) (19) (23) (76) (72) (64) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.8 – MLB debut has gone basically exactly as expected with 11 homers, 24 steals, and a 35.8% K% in 77 games. If the K% scares you off, I get it, but I can’t get the 22 homer, 48 steal pace he’s on as a 21 year old out of my head. The best is yet to come

10) (11) (9) (7) (6) (5) (4) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 26.2 – .955 OPS in 30 games since returning from an oblique injury. He’s elite when healthy, but he’s struggled to remain healthy in his career

11) (13) (13) (18) (21) (17) (17) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 30.11 – 92.6 MPH EV and 38 homers are both career highs

12) (23) (18) (14) (20) (20) (18) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 31.0 – We didn’t have to wait until 2024 for the power to return. It’s back now with 10 homers and 1.167 OPS in his last 25 games

13) (22) (16) (11) (14) (8) (10) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 31.4 – Respect for Judge that he isn’t just packing it in for the season with a torn ligament in his toe, and while he hasn’t been as good since returning, he still has 12 homers with a .898 OPS in 34 games

14) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 29.2 – Diagnosed with a torn UCL in his right elbow and will continue to DH until he decides whether or not to get his 2nd Tommy John surgery in 5 years. As we see with Bryce Harper, the odds Ohtani will continue to be an elite hitter are very high, but his ability to stay healthy as a starting pitcher is murkier.

Shadow14) (6) (5) (5) (3) (3) (6) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 29.2

15) (14) (14) (19) (15) (15) (12) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 31.0 – .619 OPS in his last 28 games. It’s not the best year he’s ever had, but everything in his underlying numbers look normal, and as we’ve seen with Mookie, not every year can be a banger

16) (27) (17) (20) (16) (14) (11) Trea Turner PHI, SS, 30.2 – Slashing .368/.404/.783 with 11 homers, 4 steals, and a 23/6 K/BB in his last 26 games. That buy low price I was hoping for this off-season is closing by the day

17) (19) (24) (17) (24) (36) (36) Spencer Strider ATL, RHP, 24.10 – 38% K% leads the league by far for every pitcher with over 70 IP. Glasnow’s 31.7% is a distant 2nd

18) (12) (10) (10) (5) (6) (9) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 24.6 – The hot streak still hasn’t come, and when you look at his career numbers, it’s hard to deny his monster 2021 season is starting to look like a huge outlier. I still see a .383 xwOBA which is in the top 5% of the league and find it hard to drop him too far down the rankings

19) (15) (15) (16) (10) (10) (14) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 26.10 – What’s there to say? Guy just consistently rips the ball

20) (17) (22) (40) (50) (82) (41) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 26.8 – Sprint speed didn’t bounce back from 2022 with it sitting at a decent 27.7 ft/sec, and it’s resulted in only 11 steal attempts in a year where steals have exploded. He’s a perfect 11 for 11 to be fair, and he’s bouncing back everywhere else, but I thought it’s worth keeping in mind

21) (25) (41) (46) (74) (101) (106) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.9 – Holliday is getting promoted to Triple-A after destroying Double-A with a 153 wRC+ in 36 games. He’s now on the precipice of a callup to the bigs. He was in high school last year. Wild

22) (26) (51) (79) (73) (58) (51) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.6 – Hasn’t been called up to Triple-A yet like Holliday, but there is still an outside chance Chourio gets a callup up to the bigs in late September as well. Two 19 year old uber prospects showing out in the playoffs would be insane. I’m getting pumped just thinking about it

23) (20) (25) (25) (29) (37) (37) Freddie Freeman LAD, 1B, 34.0 – In win now mode, I wouldn’t argue putting Freeman as high as 8th overall despite being almost 34 years old. One of the most consistently great players of our generation

24) (24) (26) (27) (31) (38) (38) Corey Seager TEX, SS, 29.2 – I started Seager’s Top 1,000 blurb this off-season by writing, “Seager doesn’t get the respect he deserves in the fantasy world,” and I ended it by writing, “If he hits .300 next year with 35 homers it wouldn’t be surprising at all.” He’s blowing past even my high expectations with a .341 BA and an about 40 homer pace if he didn’t miss time

25) (31) (31) (47) (30) (32) (25) Francisco Lindor NYM, SS, 29.10 – I said above that Tucker might have the quietest 30/30 season of all time, but Lindor is also knocking on the door of 30/30 (25/25 right now), and if he does it, he’ll actually have the quietest 30/30 season of all time

26) (18) (23) (31) (17) (16) (15) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 22.6 – Harris has made incremental improvements almost everywhere you look (EV, launch, K%, BB%, whiff%, chase%). The monster breakout didn’t come this year, but the seeds have certainly been planted for it in the future

27) (28) (28) (30) (38) (44) (68) Matt Olson ATL, 1B, 29.5 – 44 homers is tied for the league lead with Ohtani and is 3 ahead of Alonso

28) (32) (27) (15) (18) (18) (26) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 28.9 – 41 homers is only 3 off the league lead behind Olson and Ohtani. It’s going to be a fun race in September

29) (33) (33) (29) (27) (26) (28) Austin Riley ATL, 3B, 26.5 – 21 homers in his last 64 games. He’s been raking for months now and a 40 homer season is within reach

30) (21) (11) (12) (12) (11) (13) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 25.5 – Bichette’s sprint speed is now in the bottom 41% of the league and he’s 3 for 6 on the bases. The hope for him to contribute in steals is all but gone

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on August 21, 2023September 2, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: August 2023 Top 379 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings

It’s Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings Week over on the Patreon, and as usual, I’m going about 350 deep with blurbs for everyone. Top 21 are free here on the Brick Wall. Only prospects currently in the minors were eligible for this list with the exception of the very recently called up players (Winn, Noelvi). Previous rankings are in parenthesis from July through the off-season, in that order. Here is the August 2023 Top 379 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON & OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-AUGUST TOP 477 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 17 DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (8/3/23)
-7 END OF SEASON STRATEGIES AND THOUGHTS
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: AUGUST MAILBAG! (8/25/23)
-TOP 38 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (8/15/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

1) (1) (1) (2) (6) (13) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.9 – I hate to even mention it but Holliday’s power/speed combo has been a little lacking at Double-A with 3 homers and 1 steal in 25 games. He has only 10 homers in 105 games on the season. He’s only 19 years old and he has a 164 wRC+ at the level, which is why it’s almost silly to mention, but there is another 19 year old at Double-A who is breathing down Holliday’s neck, and he’s a power/speed glutton …

2) (2) (3) (5) (4) (3) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.5 – Holliday and Chourio ranked 25th and 26th overall on the Top 477 August 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings, so it’s a literal coin flip for me. Holliday has the safety and hit tool edge, while Chourio has the power/speed edge (17 homers and 34 steals in 100 games).

3) (3) (2) (6) (3) (7) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 21.1 – Called up to Triple-A and is unsurprisingly raking with 2 homers, 2 steals, and a 13%/17.4% K%/BB% in 5 games. He ranked 1st overall on my Top 39 Prospects to Stash for 2023 Only that dropped last week on the Patreon.

4) (6) (6) (18) (23) (25) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 21.4 – Called up to Triple-A and hasn’t slowed down at all, slashing .299/.397/.567 with 4 homers, 5 steals, and a 21.8%/12.8% K%/BB% in 16 games. I’ve been screaming from the mountaintops that Armstrong was going to be beast for years now, and it’s all coming to fruition

5) (5) (5) (11) (47) (92) Junior Caminero TBR, 3B, 20.1 – Caught fire at Double-A in his last 12 games, slashing .370/.420/.761 with 6 homers and a 7/3 K/BB. He’s the righty version of Rafael Devers

6) (7) Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 21.5 – Stupid good at Single-A with a 192 wRC+ in 14 games. It earned him a promotion to Double-A, and I’m not sure the Double-A competition will be much better at slowing him down

7) (8) Wyatt Langford TEX, OF, 21.8 – Having no issues at High-A with a 152 wRC+ in 14 games. He can’t be far behind Crews for his first crack at the upper minors

8) (4) (4) (7) (14) (8) James Wood WAS, OF, 20.11 – 33.1% K% with a .227 BA in 64 games at Double-A officially puts his hit tool in the danger zone, but I’m still betting on the talent and future adjustments

9) (9) Paul Skenes PIT, RHP, 21.2 – He’s been untouchable in his pro debut, going 4 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 5/0 K/BB over 3 short outings at rookie and Single-A. He’s an ace waiting to happen with a fire 4 pitch mix (fastball, slider, cutter, change).

10) (10) (17) (15) (13) (34) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 20.11 – 0 homers in his last 13 games after his little power binge … he might not be a power hitting beast quite yet

11) (11) (13) (14) (41) (30) Noelvi Marte CIN, SS, 21.9 – Marte’s speed has been questioned for over a year now, so he went out and stole third base in his MLB debut, and then hit a hustle double for his first MLB hit. I have no idea where everyone plays when India and Fraley get healthy, but I’m not sure how Marte’s contact/power/speed profile got so underrated.

12) (13) (14) (16) (15) (10) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.7 – The hit tool has been much improved of late, slashing .333/.401/.494 with 5 homers, 19 steals, and a 44/21 K/BB in his last 42 games at Double-A. That was the last thing we needed to see to cement his elite fantasy prospect status

13) (16) Walker Jenkins MIN, OF, 18.5 – Slashing .340/.380/.574 with 2 homers, 3 steals, and a 14%/6% K%/BB% in 12 games in rookie ball. He’s going to be an elite prospect in no time

14) (14) Max Clark DET, OF, 18.7 – Slashing .268/.348/.561 with 2 homers, 2 steals, and a 21.7%/10.9% K%/BB% in 10 games in rookie ball. He’s right on track to become the next Carroll/Armstrong

15) (33) (55) (135) (185) (265) Ethan Salas SDP, C, 17.2 – Called up to High-A and put up a 36 wRC+ in 9 games, which somehow earned him a promotion to Double-A. He’s 17 years old. I’m scratching my head. Why?

16) (34) (72) (50) (48) (42) Masyn Winn STL, SS, 21.4 – Called up to the majors and is struggling with a 71.8 MPH EV and 27.3%/0.0% K%/BB% in 3 games. It’s obviously a super small sample, but I wouldn’t expect him to explode in his age 21 year old season. It might take a couple years for him to really hit his peak a la CJ Abrams.

17) (24) (50) (57) (67) (71) Jackson Merrill SDP, SS, 20.3 – The GB% has come all the way down to 36.9% in 31 games at Double-A, and he’s done it while maintaining the elite contact rates (10.6% K%). It’s resulted in 4 homers, 5 steals, and a .312 BA

18) (35) (63) (66) (73) (354) Tyler Black MIL, 2B/3B, 23.0 – Black was one of my first major buy calls all the way back in April, and he’s now on the verge of a call up after getting promoted to Triple-A. He plays 2B and 3B and Milwaukee is very weak at 2B and 3B.

19) (12) (42) (48) (119) (80) Everson Pereira NYY, OF, 22.4 – Christopher Morel 2.0. He’s wrecking Triple-A with 8 homers and 4 steals in 35 games, but the swing and miss could tank him in the majors

20) (15) (20) (19) (31) (31) Marcelo Mayer BOS, SS, 20.8 – Out since August 2nd with a shoulder injury. A .220 BABIP was really his biggest issue at Double-A

21) (17) (16) (13) (12) (16) Ricky Tiedemann TOR, LHP, 21.0 – Beastly stuff and huge K upside makes you want to completely ignore that he has a 6.35 ERA in 17 IP at Double-A

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on August 7, 2023August 11, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 477 August 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

It’s Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week over on the Patreon, and as usual, I’m going over 400 deep with blurbs for just about everyone. Top 26 are free here on the Brick Wall. July-Off-Season Rankings are in parenthesis, in that order. Here is the Top 477 August 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 357 MID-SEASON DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 17 DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (8/3/23)
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JULY MAILBAG! (7/28/23)
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (7/14/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 29.1 – Ohtani is inexplicably getting even better with career bests in EV (94.7 MPH), EV against (86.5 MPH), xwOBA (.437), and K% (23.9%) … and all that to still miss the playoffs

2) (2) (2) (2) (3) (3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 25.9 – It’s insane that Acuna just became an elite contact hitter out of nowhere. He has a 12.2% K% after his previous career best was 23.6%, and he’s doing it while hitting the ball harder than he ever has with a 95.1 MPH EV.

3) (3) (8) (24) (24) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.11 – The shoulder scare seems to be behind him, although he hasn’t been quite as good post break with a .753 OPS in 22 games. It hasn’t slowed him down on the bases though with 10 steals over that time period.

4) (4) (5) (7) (9) (7) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, SS/OF, 24.6 – .615 OPS in his last 36 games. Maybe he needed the PED’s after all, or maybe he’s just been unlucky with a .385 xwOBA vs. .341 wOBA

5) (5) (4) (3) (2) (2) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 22.7 – We’ve been waiting for the heater all year and it might finally be here with 5 homers and a 1.032 OPS in his last 15 games. He hits the ball too hard (92.8 MPH EV) and is too fast (29.6 ft/sec sprint) for him not to get hot like this eventually

6) (12) (13) (13) (13) (8) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS/3B, 23.2 – I’ve been imploring you to buy in every monthly update, and the blow up has finally come for Witt with 8 homers and a 1.001 OPS in his last 30 games. The underlying numbers said this was inevitable

Shadow 6) (5) (5) (3) (3) (6) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 29.1

7) (8) (9) (4) (4) (6) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 26.7 – The quietest elite player in the game. He’s knocking on the door of a 30/30 season

8) (6) (8) (11) (7) (5) Juan Soto SDP, OF, 24.9 – .421 OBP is 2nd to only Ronald Acuna (.425)

9) (7) (6) (9) (12) (16) Wander Franco TBR, SS, 22.6 – Coming out of his slump with 4 homers and a 1.241 OPS in his last 9 games. He’s actually been on the unlucky side this season with a .354 xwOBA vs. .339 wOBA

10) (19) (23) (76) (72) (64) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.7 – He’s on a full season pace for about 28 homers and 51 stolen bases, and while the hit tool risk is real, his 29.5% whiff% is actually not bad at all. Trea motherf’ing Turner is swinging and missing more than Cruz has this year (29.7% whiff%). Ranking Cruz 10th may be aggressive, but I can only be honest, and his combination of youth and upside is one I’m simply not passing up

11) (9) (7) (6) (5) (4) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 26.1 – Returned from an oblique injury no worse for the wear with 4 homers and a 1.189 OPS in his last 10 games. If you don’t care about steals, he can rank as high as 3rd overall

12) (10) (10) (5) (6) (9) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 24.5 – .387 xwOBA vs. .337 wOBA. He doesn’t have a history of underperforming his underlying numbers. Whatever you do, don’t sell low

13) (13) (18) (21) (17) (17) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 30.10 – Not only hasn’t he slowed down, he’s taken it up a notch with a 1.249 OPS and 11 homers in his last 30 games. He’s on pace for the 2nd best year of his career

14) (14) (19) (15) (15) (12) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 30.11 – Down goes Anderson … Down goes Anderson

15) (15) (16) (10) (10) (14) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 26.9 – 7 homers with a 1.052 OPS in his last 26 games, and he also stole his first 2 bags of the season over that time period

16) (21) (41) (51) (27) (30) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 26.0 – Robert is just about the lone bright spot in an otherwise disastrous and embarrassing year for Chicago. He’s on pace for 44 homers and 20 steals

17) (22) (40) (50) (82) (41) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 26.7 – He debuted so young that you forget he’s just entering his man muscle years. 37 homer pace is set to shatter his previous career high of 30

18) (23) (31) (17) (16) (15) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 22.5 – I keep seeing Harris included in trades where he isn’t getting nearly his due respect. He’s slashing .369/.417/.585 with 2 homers, 2 steals, and a 11/6 K/BB in his last 20 games. He crushes the ball, he’s fast, he has plus contact rates, and he’s still only 22 years old

19) (24) (17) (24) (36) (36) Spencer Strider ATL, RHP, 24.9 – The undisputed top dog with a 39.3% K% and 97.3 MPH heat. Gausman’s 32.8% K% is a distant 2nd among qualified starters

20) (25) (25) (29) (37) (37) Freddie Freeman LAD, 1B, 33.11 – In win now mode, I wouldn’t argue putting Freeman 3rd overall despite being almost 34 years old. One of the most consistently great players of our generation

21) (11) (12) (12) (11) (13) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 25.4 – Dodged a bullet with his knee injury not considered serious. What is serious though is that he all of a sudden became slow with a below average 27 ft/sec sprint, leading to only 3 steals in a year where everyone else is running

22) (16) (11) (14) (8) (10) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 31.3 – Returned early from a torn ligament in his big toe even though he isn’t 100% yet and is understandably struggling with a .685 OPS in his last 9 games. Maybe they should shut it down and let him heal up for the next 8 years of his mega contract

23) (18) (14) (20) (20) (18) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 30.11 – The guy has an elite .378 xwOBA in a year where he clearly is well below 100% returning early from Tommy John surgery. There is little doubt the homer power will fully return in 2024

24) (26) (27) (31) (38) (38) Corey Seager TEX, SS, 29.2 – The career year continues with 8 homers in his last 15 games. His .441 xwOBA is behind only Judge and Acuna. I started Seager’s Top 1,000 blurb this off-season by writing, “Seager doesn’t get the respect he deserves in the fantasy world,” and I ended it by writing, “If he hits .300 next year with 35 homers it wouldn’t be surprising at all.” He’s blowing past even my high expectations

25) (41) (46) (74) (101) (106) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.8 – Destroying Double-A, slashing .396/.448/.642 with 3 homers, 0 steals, and a 13.8%/8.6% K%/BB% in 13 games. He has plenty of competition for this top spot with Chourio right on his heels, but he’s not giving an inch

26) (51) (79) (73) (58) (51) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.5 – This man does not like his balls tacked as he’s back to going nuclear with the regular ball, slashing .424/.480/.717 with 6 homers, 9 steals, and a 12/9 K/BB in his last 21 games

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on July 24, 2023July 28, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Mid-Season 2023 Top 356 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings

We back for the Mid-Season Edition of the Top 356 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings over on Patreon. Top 20 free here on the Brick Wall. Only players currently in the minors were eligible for this list. The new draftees are included. Previous rankings are in parenthesis (from June through the off-season, in that order). Here is the Mid-Season 2023 Top 356 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 473 JULY DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (7/14/23)
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (6/29/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JULY MAILBAG! (7/28/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

1) (1) (2) (6) (13) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.8 – Got the call to Double-A and just continues to cement his top dog status with 1 homer, a 15% K% and 146 wRC+ in 9 games. He better keep it up though, because he has someone nipping at his heels …

2) (3) (5) (4) (3) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.4 – New ball, new Chourio … or should I say old ball, old Chourio. He’s back to tearing up the minors with a 1.367 OPS, 3 homers and 5 steals in 9 games at Double-A post break. I’m tempted to put him back over Holliday

3) (2) (6) (3) (7) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 21.0 – Lawlar ranked 13th on my Top 26 Prospects to Stash for 2023 Only (Patreon). He’s been dominating Double-A for months now with a .979 OPS in his last 40 games, he’s already 21 years old, Perdomo is due for regression, and Arizona is fighting for a playoff spot.

4) (4) (7) (14) (8) James Wood WAS, OF, 20.10 – .208 BA with a 31.6% K% in 41 games at Double-A shows the hit tool risk is real, but I wouldn’t let it scare you off too much as the 6’6”, 240 pound Wood is the next head exploding, elite athlete that will make mainstream baseball fans go crazy when he does get the call

5) (5) (11) (47) (92) Junior Caminero TBR, 3B, 20.0 – The righty version of Rafael Devers

6) (6) (18) (23) (25) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 21.3 – The power is exploding with 12 homers in 68 games at Double-A, the speed is elite with 23 steals, and he’s never had any hit tool issues with a career .304 BA in the minors. He’s straight elite

7) Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 21.4 – Ranked 1st on my Top 50 2024 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon): “Let’s cut right to the chase, if any pitcher would make me pass on the type of hitting talent Crews and Langford are, it would be Paul Skenes, so I have no issue going Skenes first, but with how an entire pitcher’s career trajectory can be changed on a single pitch, I just can’t take that risk. Selected 2nd overall, Crews is built like a solid rock at 6’0”, 203 pounds, and he swings the bat so fast and powerfully it almost looks like he’s using an illegally light bat (he’s not, at least I don’t think he is ha). The ball explodes off it on contact. The swing and hard hit ability are so impressive that I get shades of Bryce Harper when watching him (obviously not a direct comp). He obliterated the SEC from the second he stepped on campus as a freshman, and he kept on improving through his junior year, slashing .380/.498/.689 with 58 homers, 23 steals, and a 146/152 K/BB in 196 career games. His floor feels like a 30+ homer bat without the best BA or tons of steals, and the ceiling might look something like the aforementioned Bryce Harper. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 103/33/108/.278/.367/.531/14″

8) Wyatt Langford TEX, OF, 21.7 – Ranked 2nd on my Top 50 2024 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon): “If you miss out on Crews, Langford not only isn’t a bad consolation prize, but he has a legit case to be taken over Crews. He might actually have half a tick more power and speed than Crews, and he’s even more built up at 6’1”, 225 pounds. He used that tremendously powerful and athletic frame to destroy the SEC over the past 2 seasons, slashing .363/.471/.746 with 47 homers, 16 steals, and a 89/92 K/BB in 134 career games. Crews strikes me as a bit looser and more of a natural athlete to my eye, and his bat speed and swing just look next level to me, so I would still pick him first, but I would be happy as a clam to sit at #2 and take whichever bat fell to me. He was selected 4th overall. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 95/34/105/.271/.355/.523/16″

9) Paul Skenes PIT, RHP, 21.1 – Ranked 3rd on my Top 50 2024 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon): “Selected 1st overall, Skenes immediately becomes the top pitching prospect in baseball who has yet to debut in the majors. If your offense is already stacked, and you are struggling to build up your pitching, I wouldn’t blame you for going Skenes over Crews and Langford, because Skenes is a generational pitching talent. His season was nothing short of jaw dropping with a pitching line of 1.69/0.75/209/20 in 122.2 IP in the SEC. His fastball sits in the upper 90’s and routinely hits over 100 MPH. His slider is elite, and while he didn’t go to his changeup as much, that pitch is also nasty. He also displayed plus control of his entire arsenal. He’s 6’6”, 235 pounds with a relatively athletic delivery and he’s a good athlete in general as evidenced by the fact he is also an excellent hitter. He had a career 1.121 OPS in 119 games in the Mountain West before transferring into the SEC. He’s as can’t miss as a pitcher can get. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 16/3.12/1.02/250 in 200 IP”

10) (17) (15) (13) (34) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 20.10 – He’s been a homer machine since returning from a wrist injury with 6 homers in 26 games at Double-A. The homer uptick is the last thing we needed to see with his mature plate approach and plus speed

11) (13) (14) (41) (30) Noelvi Marte CIN, SS, 21.8 – Called up to Triple-A and isn’t having any issues with a 112 wRC+, 1 homer, 3 steals, and a 19.5% K% in 17 games. He’s shaping up to be an above average contributor in every category

12) (42) (48) (119) (80) Everson Pereira NYY, OF, 22.3 – Called up to Triple-A and is rolling with 4 homers and a 23.7% K% in 13 games. He has a 92.9 MPH EV at the level. He’s in position for a call up with the Yanks scuffling offense, and he can make a legit fantasy impact if he does get the call

13) (14) (16) (15) (10) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.6 – I’m going to keep buying a 20 year old at Double-A who is showing off a nasty power (12 homers)/speed (25 steals)/OBP (.348 OBP) combo. Don’t expect a high BA though with a .219 BA and 27.1% K%

14) Max Clark DET, OF, 18.6 – Ranked 4th on my Top 50 2024 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon): Clark is the 2023 draft version of Pete Crow Armstrong and Corbin Carroll, two guys who I was the high man on in their first year player draft class, although Clark actually got the respect he deserved by getting selected 3rd overall. Maybe the success of those aforementioned players paved the way for a guy like Clark to get valued correctly. As you can tell from the comps, double plus speed with a plus hit tool and developing power is what you are buying. He’s a pretty thick and muscular 6’1”, 190 pounds, so I don’t think you have to squint too hard to see legitimate power developing down the line, even if he’s more a line drive hitter currently. 5×5 BA leagues are going to be his bread and butter, but like Carroll, he can be a beast regardless of league type. He has elite dynasty asset upside. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 93/18/72/.288/.346/.435/39

15) (20) (19) (31) (31) Marcelo Mayer BOS, SS, 20.7 – .221 BABIP is the only issue at Double-A. He was the Walker Jenkins of his draft class …

16) Walker Jenkins MIN, OF, 18.4 – Ranked 5th on my Top 50 2024 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon): Selected 5th overall, the 6’3”, 215 pounds Jenkins has that sweet lefty swing that just oozes offensive potential. It’s athletic, quick, under control, powerful, smooth … I can go on and on. It’s hard to watch this guy hit and not completely fall in love. It has the potential for plus hit and plus power at peak, and he’s also a good athlete with above average run times. It’s the type of profile that can be an elite dynasty asset a la Kyle Tucker. If your dynasty league leans more towards power than speed, I can see scooping Jenkins over Clark. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 89/30/97/.270/.340/.514/14

17) (16) (13) (12) (16) Ricky Tiedemann TOR, LHP, 20.11 – Returned from biceps inflammation and looked healthy in his first rehab outing in rookie ball, going 2 perfect innings with 3 K’s. Injury risk is just part of the equation when you deal in pitching prospects

18) (NA) (27) (128) (328) AJ Smith-Shawver ATL, RHP, 20.5 – Sent back down to Triple-A after a solid MLB debut. The fact he even made it to the majors is incredible considering how fast he flew through the minors at only 20 years old

19) (30) (29) (49) (36) Tink Hence STL, RHP, 20.11 – Got called up to Double-A and has a 1.80 ERA with a 18%/6.6% K%/BB% in 15 IP, going 5 IP in each outing. The stuff is fire, he is starting to go deeper into games, and now he’s performing in the upper minors

20) (26) (31) (77) (247) Heston Kjerstad BAL, OF, 24.5 – One of the premier hit/power prospects in the minors with a .344 BA and 5 homers in 33 games at Triple-A

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on July 19, 2023July 28, 2023 by Michael Halpern

The Wednesday Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/19/23)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays (and I guess Wednesdays sometimes when I get jammed up, ha) throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Wednesday Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/19/23):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 473 JULY DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 331 JUNE DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (7/14/23)
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (6/29/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JUNE MAILBAG! (6/27/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

*I was on an extended weekend family trip on Monday and Tuesday that I thought I was going to be able to write during but it turned out I couldn’t. My bad.

Francisco Alvarez NYM, C, 21.7 – When I ranked Alvarez 92nd overall on the Updated July Top 473 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon), he was in the midst of slumping, but I didn’t let it scare me off him, and he’s been molten hot since. He went 2 for 3 with a 108.6 MPH homer off Lucas Gioltio and a 106.5 MPH homer of Tanner Banks. It was his 18th and 19th homers of the year in 69 games, and he now has a 7 homers with a 1.363 OPS in 11 July games. He leads all catchers in the homer category and he’s done it in far less at bats. This is just the beginning.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand CIN, 1B/3B, 23.6 – That unsurprisingly didn’t take long. Strand walloped his first MLB homer in his 2nd game with a 426 foot, 105.8 MPH bomb. How could anyone have guessed a guy who hit 20 homers with a .331 BA in 67 games at Triple-A would be good? Maybe it was that extra month or two at Triple-A that really put the finishing touches on him 😉

Bryce Elder ATL, RHP, 24.0 – In the easiest regression call of all time, Elder had his 2nd clunker in a row, going 6 IP with 12 ER and a 4/5 K/BB (5 ER in 2.2 IP last night). This is why I just never really bought into him, and while he can still be a decent fantasy starter, his 4.12 xERA has always been more indicative of his true talent level.

Lazaro Montes SEA, OF, 18.8 – Montes is officially going full breakout after cracking 2 homers yesterday and 3 homers in his last 2 games at stateside rookie ball. He’s improved on his danger zone K% of 33.2% in 2022, bringing it down to a not horrific 27.9% this year, and he’s still walking a ton with a 23.1% BB%. It’s all added up to a 145 wRC+ in 26 games. He’s right on track to become an elite power hitting prospect.

Sebastian Walcott TEX, SS, 17.3 – 3 for 4 with a double, and most importantly, he didn’t strike out once. The strikeouts are the only blemish on his profile with a 29%/4.3% K%/BB% in 15 games in stateside rookie ball, but considering he’s still only 17 years old, and his otherwise insane production (6 homers, 6 steals, and a 181 wRC+) it is very easy to overlook. He was my #1 international prospect target, hyping him hard (with a side of Joendry Vargas who is also killing it in the DSL right now) in my First Year Player Draft Target and Strategy Guide (Patreon) all the way back on January 5th, writing, “Sebastian Walcott TEX, SS, 17.1/ Joendry Vargas LAD, SS, 17.5 – I love searching for that relatively underrated international prospect. The guy who isn’t getting hyped up at the very top of the class but I think should be. It was Alexander Ramirez for me in 2020 (big hit), Maikol Hernandez in 2021 (oof), Lazaro Montes in 2022 (looking good), and in 2023, it’s Sabastian Walcott. This dude looks like a next level athlete in the sparse Youtube videos out there. It’s what made me fall in love so much with Ramirez and Montes, and that was worked out for me. Walcott even stands out relative to the other elite athletes in his class. Vargas is getting some more rankings love than Walcott, but still isn’t really talked about like the very top guys yet. He’s also a good international target.” Walcott started to get a lot more love later in the off-season, but you were already all over him early if you read my stuff.

Xavier Isaac TBR, 1B, 19.6 – Isaac has continued to quietly establish himself as a future elite hitting prospect. He demolished a 440 foot no doubter yesterday for his 3rd in 4 games and his 9th in 64 games. The GB% continues to come down to a reasonable 46.4%, and he has an excellent plate approach with a 19.9%/14.7% K%/BB%. It’s all led to a 141 wRC+. He rose to 68th overall on the June Top Top 331 Prospects Rankings (Patreon), and he’ll take another big jump in the Updated July Prospects Rankings coming next week.

Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.4 – The Southern League is in the post pre-tacked ball era, and Chourio is loving every minute of it, smoking an opposite field homer yesterday and is now 10 for 18 with 2 doubles, 2 homers and a 1/1 K/BB in 4 games with the normal ball. He’s basically picked right up from the destruction he laid last year. I wouldn’t say we should completely throw out the first half stats of all players in the Southern League, but it’s going to be mighty interesting to see the difference from the 1st half to the 2nd half. I didn’t budge off Chourio with his good, but not explosive 1st half, and now he’s exploding all over again.

Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.6 – Dominguez is getting hot again. He went deep for the 2nd time in 3 games and now has a .934 OPS with 7 steals and a 14/8 K/BB in 13 July games. It think the backlash against Dominguez’ ridiuclous hype as a 17 year old has made him underrated over the past couple years. He’s a 20 year old at Double-A with a 108 wRC+ and a nasty power/speed combo (12 homers and 25 steals in 80 games).

Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 21.3 – My #6 ranked prospect on the June Top 331 Rankings, Armstrong has been an extra base machine since returning from the break. He smushed his 11th homer in 64 games at Double-A yesterday and now has 3 doubles, 1 triple, and 1 homer in his last 14 AB. The power explosion is exciting considering his speed (23 steals) and defense, and while the 24%/7.7% K%/BB% isn’t great, it’s not bad either. I’m all in on Armstrong and have been since his draft year.

Evan Carter TEX, OF, 20.10 – What lack of power? Carter deposited his 10th homer of the season right in the lazy river. He’s been on fire since returning from injury, slashing .354/.426/.622 with 5 homers, 2 steals (in 6 attempts) and a 18/10 K/BB in 21 games. The only real blemish on his season is a terrible stolen base success rate (11 for 18), but I think we can overlook that with the power uptick and great plate approach.

Emmanuel Rodriguez MIN, OF, 20.4 – It’s been an up and down season for Baby Bonds, and we’re now back on the upswing with his first homer since June 23rd. He has a .914 OPS in his last 6 games after going 0 for 22 in the 8 games before that. That is a microcosm of his entire season, but a 131 wRC+ with 11 homers and 11 steals in 60 games at High-A ain’t too shabby at all. The 31.8% K% and .214 BA prevents a true explosion to elite prospect status, but his value has at least held steady this year.

Ceddanne Rafaela BOS, OF, 22.3 – All Rafaela has done at Triple-A is hit dingers, and I mean that in both a good and bad way. He smoked his 5th homer in 15 games at the level, but it comes with a 25%/1.5% K%/BB%. The extremely low walk rates are a bit concerning, but he makes up for it with plus speed and plus defense. The profile isn’t that far off from Pete Crow, and he’s now knocking on the door of the bigs.

Jett Williams NYM, SS, 19.8 – Jett may be only 5’6”, but he’s starting to look pretty thick (in a good way), and he’s proving he has enough juice in his bat to make a legit impact. He launched his 5th homer in 70 games at Single-A yesterday and it comes with 29 steals and a 20.6%/19.6% K%/BB%. He only has a .243 BA because the GB% is probably a little too low for his type of profile with a 35.2% GB%, but that is a much easier fix than trying to learn how to lift the ball more. It’s a damn exciting fantasy profile and he is very easily a top 100 fantasy prospect.

Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 22.1 – Jones crushed his 11th homer in 72 games off a pretty nice looking curve that caught too much of the plate. We already know about the power and speed, and his plate approach has looked much better of late with a 24.3%/14.8% K%/BB% in his last 31 games. I would say he’s conquered High-A at this point and is just waiting for his next challenge in the upper minors.

Tyler Black MIL, 2B, 22.11 – Black was one of my first buy calls of the season, and he’s went on to just continue crushing the upper minors all year. He went 4 for 6 with a frozen rope homer yesterday and is now slashing .282/.427/.524 with 13 homers, 42 steals, and a 20.3%/16.8% K%/BB% in 70 games at Double-A. Call me crazy, but I think he’s ready for Triple-A.

Coby Mayo BAL, 3B, 21.6/Orelvis Martinez TOR, SS, 21.6 – Another day, another dinger. Mayo and Orelvis both went deep again, and it was both of their 18th homers. It was also both of their first homers at Triple-A after recently getting called up to the level. I prefer Mayo, but they are both elite power hitting prospects.

Christian Scott NYM, RHP, 24.1 – 7 IP, 6 hits, 2 ER, 8/0 K/BB at Double-A. Scott transitioned into a full time starter role after being mostly used out of the pen in his career, and he’s taken to it well with a 3.22 ERA and 28.8%/5% K%/BB% in 36.1 IP at Double-A. He’s a big dude at 6’4”, 215 pounds and the stuff is very good with a mid 90’s fastball and plus slider. He might still end up in the pen when it’s all said and done, but there is definitely mid rotation upside and he’s definitely an exciting pop up pitching prospect.

Ty Madden DET, RHP, 23.4 – 4.2 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 8/2 K/BB at Double-A. Madden has always felt a bit underrated to me. He has the size (6’3”, 215), velocity (mid 90’s heat), diverse pitch mix (fastball, slider, curve, change), and production (3.68 ERA with a 27.1%/9.5% K%/BB%) to make a legit fantasy impact. He’s not a bad low key target if you are struggling to acquire pitching as he’s also close to the bigs.

Logan Allen CLE, LHP, 24.11 – Allen is back in the majors and it didn’t take long for him to re-establish himself, going 5 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 8/1 K/BB vs. Pitt. The changeup was a whiff machine with a 50% whiff% and it led to a 29% whiff% on the day. The stuff isn’t huge with a 90.4 MPH fastball in this one, and he’s not an elite control guy, which limits his upside, but the guy knows how to pitch and can miss bats. It’s a #4-ish starter profile.

Jordan Beck COL, OF, 22.2 – Beck got the call to Double-A post break and he had his first big day at the level, going 2 for 4 with a triple and a homer. He has a 115 wRC+ in 4 games but it comes with a 46.2%/0.0% K%/BB%. It’s still obviously too small of a sample to say anything in either direction, but the one thing to watch is that K%, because we know about the big talent at 6’3”, 225 pounds with a plus power/speed combo. He was one of my targets in my Top 9 Dynasty Baseball Targets (Patreon) from a few weeks ago.

Victor Scott STL, OF, 22.3 – Double-A hasn’t slowed Scott down at all. He lined his 2nd homer in 13 games and is now slashing .333/.377/.491 with 2 homers, 6 steals, and a 12.9%/4.8% K%/BB% in 13 games at the level. He rose to 233rd overall on the latest prospect rankings, and that is set to take another big jump next week. He’s legitimately exciting with a plus contact/speed profile.

Jud Fabian BAL, OF, 22.7 – Fabian smacked his 5th homer at 20 games since getting called up to Double-A, but unfortunately his hit tool has basically been a worst case scenario with a .171 BA and 37.6% K%. That is exactly what we didn’t want to see, but he’s made adjustments in the past, and we have to give him some time to make adjustments again against upper minors pitchers.

Ivan Melendez ARI, 1B, 23.7 – Melendez got the call to Double-A, and literally all he’s done is rip dingers. He cracked 2 homers yesterday and he now has 4 homers in 3 games at the level. He wasn’t too bad at High-A either with 18 homers in 58 games. He’s certainly made up for his lackluster debut in 2022, but he still isn’t without his warts with a 33.6%/8.2% K%/BB% (30.8%/7.7% K%/BB% at Double-A). It is a bit of a Quad-A type slugger profile, and he’s also hit lefties much better than righties. A low BA, part time power bat might be the most likely outcome, but he’s left little doubt that he will be able to mash homers at any level.

Alek Manoah TOR, RHP, 25.6 – 3 IP, 3 hits, 4 ER. 0/5 K/BB vs. SDP … oof, still brutal

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on June 19, 2023June 26, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: June 2023 Top 331 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings

It’s Dynasty Baseball Prospects Week over on the Patreon, and the full Top 331 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings are now completed. (Top 25 free here on the Brick Wall). I was super strict with my definition of a prospect in this one again, except with the very recently called up prospects (Matos, Davis, Naylor, Sheehan). May, April, and Off-Season rankings are in parenthesis, in that order. Here is the June 2023 Top 331 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 456 JUNE DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (6/16/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-TOP 44 ROOKIE BALL/DSL PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (5/26/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG! (5/16/23)

1) (2) (6) (13) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.6 – Holliday’s dominating performance as a 19 year old at High-A (166 wRC+ in 44 games) not only makes him the #1 prospect in baseball, it also vaults him into the Top 50 of my Updated Top 456 June Dynasty Baseball Rankings. He’s the best new Holliday since National Pizza Day was invented in the year 2000 … well, at least until Jackson’s younger brother Ethan Holliday hits the scene in 2025

2) (6) (3) (7) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 20.11 – Slashing .369/.424/.655 with 4 homers, 6 steals, and a 13.0%/7.6% K%/BB% in his last 20 games at Double-A. He figured out his contact issues, bringing his K% well out of the danger zone to 24.3% on the season

3) (5) (4) (3) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.3 – The 94 wRC+ in 59 games at Double-A is mediocre, but the 9 homers, 19 steals, and a 23.6% K% from a 19 year old is still very exciting

4) (7) (14) (8) James Wood WAS, OF, 20.9 – Hit tool is getting exposed at Double-A with a 34.7%/5.3% K%/BB% in 18 games. It’s basically exactly what you didn’t want to see, but he’s only 20, and it’s understandable that there will be an adjustment period

5) (11) (47) (92) Junior Caminero TBR, 3B, 19.11 – Called up to Double-A and he hasn’t missed a beat with a 19.4%/8.3% K%/BB% and 2 homers in 17 games

6) (18) (23) (25) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 21.2 – Pete Crow has a chance to be a true fantasy monster with 9 homers (58.4% FB%), 16 steals, and a .280 BA in 48 games at Double-A. The 23.1%/6.7% K%/BB% is mediocre, which keeps him from ranking even higher than this

7) (43) (76) (121) Luis Matos SFG, OF, 21.4 – He was doing his best Wander Franco impression at Triple-A with elite contact rates, developing power and some speed before earning a call to the majors. He’s yet to strikeout in the bigs with a 0.0%/29.4% K%/BB%, which has led to a .946 OPS in 17 PA, but the 77.2 MPH EV and 27.6 ft/sec sprint speed shows there is some risk that the power/speed combo won’t be huge

8) (8) (36) (58) Gavin Williams CLE, RHP, 23.10 – The Triston McKenzie injury moves Williams one step closer to a call-up, even if Cleveland doesn’t decide to turn to him quite yet

9) (NA) (8) (14) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 23.7 – Here is what I wrote about Grayson in my Top 26 Prospects to Stash for 2023 Impact Only on Friday, “Grayson may have finally found his rhythm for the first time all season. He has a 2.50 ERA with a 27/8 K/BB in 18 IP since getting sent back down to Triple-A. Their GM, Mike Elias, was obviously on to something when he talked shit about Grayson in spring training and didn’t have him break camp with the team. It was a continuation of his struggles when he returned in September of last year from a lat strain and didn’t look completely right. Before going down with that injury in 2022, Grayson said it was “hands down the best I’ve ever thrown the baseball in my life.” Pitching is all about rhythm, and the injury threw him off, but it looks like he’s finding it again. I’m sure Baltimore will be patient the second time around, but he’s on the verge on earning a 2nd shot.”

10) (12) (18) (21) Andrew Painter PHI, RHP, 19.6 – Has progressed to throwing bullpens which is a very nice hurdle to clear. Without the injury risk, he would be the top pitching prospect in the game, and even with the injury risk he might still deserve that top spot

11) (21) (59) (83) Henry Davis PIT, C, 23.8 – I ranked Davis 2nd overall on Friday’s Stash article, and I absolutely nailed it with him getting the call to the majors. He has the chance to be a true elite hitting catcher who will also get full time at bats with the ability to play in the OF

12) (9) (32) (38) Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 23.2 – Returned from injury and is back to raking with a 1.003 OPS in his last 10 games at Triple-A. Aaron Hicks hot streak complicates his path to playing time

13) (14) (41) (30) Noelvi Marte CIN, SS, 21.7 – Doing it all at Double-A with power (8 homers), speed (10 steals) and hit (16.9%/9.9% K%/BB%) in 47 games, but trying to figure out his path to playing time puts my mind in a pretzel

14) (16) (15) (10) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.5 – .210 BA and 106 wRC+ in 58 games at Double-A doesn’t look great, but the 10 homers, 16 steals, and 26.7%/18.7% K%/BB% shows the fantasy upside. The hit tool is risky, but I’m not passing up on this kind of upside, and keep in mind he’s still only 20 in the upper minors

15) (10) (5) (19) Kyle Manzardo TBR, 1B, 22.11 – Not exactly kicking the door down to Tampa with a 113 wRC+ in 60 games at Triple-A, but his hit/power combo still makes him one of the safest bats in the minors

16) (13) (12) (16) Ricky Tiedemann TOR, LHP, 20.10 – He’s considered week to week with biceps inflammation since leaving his last start on May 4th

17) (15) (13) (34) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 20.9 – Carter’s on the rehab trail from a wrist injury and should return to Double-A soon. The early season power binge proved to be a mirage, but he’s still only 20, so the power uptick could come in time, and his speed should buoy his fantasy profile until it does

18) (37) (88) (97) Christian Encarnacion-Strand CIN, 1B/3B, 23.6 – Massively improving his only weakness, like he simply flipped a switch, with a 15.3%/20.4% K%/BB% in his last 20 games. He’s also getting some run in the outfield. The callup has to be coming any day now

19) (17) (22) (48) Coby Mayo BAL, 3B, 21.6 – Mayo’s homered in 3 of his last 4 games to bring his season wRC+ at Double-A up to 163. Maybe now he’ll start to get the respect he deserves

20) (19) (31) (31) Marcelo Mayer BOS, SS, 20.6 – Called up to Double-A and is struggling with a 51 wRC+ in 16 games, but the 3 homers and 21.1%/8.5% K%/BB% shows he will be fine

21) (22) (45) (74) Jordan Westburg BAL, SS, 24.3 – What does this man have to do to get the call? Because apparently hitting 17 homers in 62 games at Triple-A isn’t enough

22) (24) (46) (47) Harry Ford SEA, C, 20.3 – Ford has the ability to be a near elite dynasty asset, but it doesn’t seem like he gets valued like that. He’s doing it all at High-A with 8 homers, 13 steals, and a 19.3%/18.9% K%/BB% in 59 games

23) (47) (141) (102) Carson Williams TBR, SS, 19.11 – You guys know I’ve been hyping Williams hard for weeks now. 25.8% K% in his last 38 games is very reasonable considering his plus power (9 homers), speed (11 steals) and plus SS glove in 48 games at High-A. He’s a near elite prospect

24) (23) (44) (44) Luisangel Acuna TEX, SS/2B, 21.3 – Power hasn’t been optimal with only 4 homers in 54 games at Double-A, but everything else has been great with elite speed (29 steals) and a strong plate approach (21.1%/10.0% K%/BB%)

25) (64) (113) (193) Emmet Sheehan LAD, RHP, 22.6 – Made his MLB debut, and while it’s hard to argue against 6 no hit innings, there was one bright red flag. The famed changeup didn’t earn a single whiff. He wouldn’t be the first plus changeup guy to underwhelm in the majors (see, Gavin Stone)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on May 22, 2023May 26, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: May 2023 Top 314 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings

I was super strict with my definition of a prospect in this one. Only players currently in the minors and who haven’t exceeded their rookie eligibility were eligible for this list. This was done to really highlight the next wave of talent. Previous rankings from April through the off-season are in parenthesis. Here is the May 2023 Top 314 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE UPDATED PROSPECTS RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 433 MAY DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (5/26/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG! (5/16/23)
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (5/19/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-PREDICTING THE 2024 TOP 50 PROSPECTS RANKS

1) (7) (6) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.4 – Slashing .325/.435/.662 with 6 homers, 5 steals, and a 20.4%/15.2% in his last 19 games at Triple-A. The power/speed combo is unmatched, and the improved K rate propels him into the top spot. Proximity gives him the edge over Holliday as Elly also ranked 1st on my Top 25 Prospects to Stash for 2023 Impact Only.

2) (6) (13) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.5 – Putting up stupid numbers at High-A, slashing .395/.505/.724 with 4 homers, 8 steals, and a 16.1%/18..3% K%/BB% in 21 games. Perfect combo of floor and high ceiling

3) (25) (24) Royce Lewis MIN, SS, 23.11 – From the 5/17/23 Dynasty Baseball Rundown: “Rolls-Royce comes back from ACL tears like he’s going into the shop for upgrades. It’s like an episode of Pimp My Knee.” He’s jacked 3 homers with 3 steals and a .364 BA in 6 games in the upper minors since returning. He ascended to top prospect in the game status before going down with the ACL injury, and he’s picking up right where he left off.

4) (2) (5) Jordan Walker STL, 3B/OF, 21.0 – Hasn’t improved his launch and isn’t performing well at Triple-A with a 67 wRC+ in 21 games

5) (4) (3) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.2 – Holding his own at Double-A as a 19 year old with 5 homers, 10 steals and a 24.1%/7.2% K%/BB% in 37 games

6) (3) (7) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 20.10 – Hit tool is getting exposed at Double-A with a 31.7% K% and .162 BA, but bad luck is playing a role with a .203 BABIP, and the power/speed combo looks great with 5 homers and 10 steals in 32 games. I would buy low if you can

7) (14) (8) James Wood WAS, OF, 20.8 – There is always going to be some hit tool risk with players this tall, but it’s been improving over his last 8 games with a 19.4% K%. High walk rate (13.9% BB%) also mitigates some of that risk

8) (36) (58) Gavin Williams CLE, RHP, 23.9 – Williams is the new #1 overall pitching prospect still in the minors. 2.10 ERA with a 36.7%/10.2% K%/BB% in 25.2 IP at Triple-A and has the huge stuff to back it up led by an upper 90’s fastball. He has ace written all over him

9) (32) (38) Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 23.1 – Across the board destruction of Triple-A. It can’t be much longer before he gets the call

10) (5) (19) Kyle Manzardo TBR, 1B, 22.10 – Hit tool really hasn’t been all that great with a 20.2% K% and .263 BA in 39 games at Triple-A, and with Tampa’s extreme depth, path to playing time isn’t exactly super clear. On the flip side his power has taken a step forward with 8 homers and he’s one of the safest bats in the minors

11) (47) (92) Junior Caminero TBR, 3B, 19.10 – There isn’t much speed here and the 24.7%/6.2% K%/BB% isn’t that great. I only bring up the negatives because his hype is through the roof and it’s worth mentioning he’s not the perfect prospect. Having said that, the guy is obviously a beast with 11 homers and a 187 wRC+ in 33 games at High-A

12) (18) (21) Andrew Painter PHI, RHP, 19.5 – Continues to ramp up from the elbow injury with no setbacks yet

13) (12) (16) Ricky Tiedemann TOR, LHP, 20.9 – Left his last start with an arm injury, but they are hopeful it isn’t that serious and that he will be back throwing soon

14) (41) (30) Noelvi Marte CIN, SS, 21.6 – From overrated to underrated. 8 homers, 8 steals, and a 17.9%/9.3% K%/BB% in 37 games at Double-A

15) (13) (34) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 20.8 – Power hasn’t taken a step forward yet with only 4 homers in 32 games at Double-A, but he’s still only 20 and he does everything else well

16) (15) (10) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.4 – .224 BABIP is still holding down the BA (.197) in 34 games at Double-A, but the 24.7%/20% K%/BB% looks good and he’s been much better of late with a .262 BA in his last 15 games

17) (22) (48) Coby Mayo BAL, 3B, 21.5 – Dominating Double-A, slashing .270/.396/.492 with 5 homers and a 24%/14.3% K%/BB% in 36 games. It’s good for a 145 wRC+. He still doesn’t get the respect he deserves

18) (23) (25) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 21.1 – 3.5% BB% in 25 games at Double-A is extremely low and it’s not an aberration as he had a 4.9% BB% in 63 games at High-A last year. I only bring it up because everything else looks great, but the low walk rate could have him hitting towards the bottom of the lineup

19) (31) (31) Marcelo Mayer BOS, SS, 20.5 – Quietly dominating High-A with a 144 wRC+. He’s a complete hitter

20) (24) (12) Druw Jones ARI, OF, 19.5 – Was starting to find his footing at Single-A with a 16.7%/12.5% K%/BB% in his last 4 games before going down with the quad injury. It feels silly to say this, but definitely don’t panic based on the 10 game sample

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on February 3, 2023February 9, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 1,000 Rankings for 2023 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues

I gave you a day to catch your breath with the Top 500 2023 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings dropping on Wednesday. Now it’s time to unveil the Top 1,000 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings over on the Patreon. These lists will be released here on Imaginary Brick Wall in mid to late March. Here is the Top 1,000 Rankings for 2023 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 500 2023 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 109 2023 FYPD RANKINGS w/ Strategy & Target Guide
-All-In-One Rankings Spreadsheet
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: Top 305 SP//Top 282 OF//Top 151 SS//Top 115 3B//Top 105 2B//Top 95 1B//TOP 68 C//Top 64 RP
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-DYNASTY TEAM REPORTS FOR EVERY TEAM (Top 10+ Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)
-UPCOMING: Position by Position Target Series, Top 600 OBP Rankings, Top 600 Points/6+Cats/OPS “Universal” Rankings, Predicting the 2024 Top 50 Prospects Rankings that doubles as a Bold Predictions article, and much more

1) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 28.9 – Ohtani came into 2022 as my #1 overall dynasty player, and he not only hung onto the top spot, but he somehow managed to pull even further away from the pack. He became arguably the best pitcher in baseball with a 2.33 ERA and 33.2%/6.7% K%/BB% in 166 IP. He also continued to be among the best hitters in baseball with a .385 xwOBA which was 6th best overall. It’s not an exaggeration to say that Ohtani is the greatest player to ever play the game. 2023 Projection: 94/33/99/.270/.361/.527/18–13/2.94/1.03/199 in 161 IP

2) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 22.3 – Prospects can break your heart, but the season Julio just had is why we play the game. There is nothing more satisfying in all of fantasy sports than acquiring a young prospect, letting him develop in your farm system, and then watching him explode in his MLB debut. And explode is exactly what he did, slashing .284/.345/.509 with 28 homers, 25 steals, and a 25.9%/7.1% K%/BB% in 132 games. He has elite speed (29.8 ft/sec sprint speed) and elite exit velocity numbers (92/96.2 MPH AVG/FB EV). He closed out the season with a bang, putting up a 1.202 OPS in his final 19 games, which could be foreshadowing for what he has in store for 2023. The only quibble is that he ran far less in the 2nd half with only 4 steals in 7 attempts in his final 50 games, but considering how fast he is, I wouldn’t get too hung up on that. 2023 Projection: 96/32/98/.278/.353/.522/26

3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 25.3 – Acuna underwent knee surgery for a torn ACL in late July 2021, and he was understandably not 100% in 2022. It’s seriously impressive that he was able to make his debut in late April, but that is where the impressing ended. He put up a career worst .764 OPS with only 15 homers in 119 games. His launch angle tanked 7.4 degrees to 10.8 degrees and his sprint speed dropped 0.9 ft/sec to 28.5 ft/sec. It was far from a complete disaster though. His .366 xwOBA was in the top 5% of the league, his 24.9% whiff% was a career best, and he still ran a ton with 29 steals. With a normal off-season and more time away from that surgery, I would be shocked if Acuna doesn’t bounce back to elite levels. 2023 Projection: 106/32/91/.279/.362/.511/33

4) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 25.9 – Alvarez’s .462 xwOBA was bested only by Aaron Judge by .001. His 95.2 MPH EV was only topped by Aaron Judge. He was the 2nd best hitter in baseball this year, behind you guessed it, Aaron Judge. I think you get the point. He’s a 6’5”, 225 pound beast who hits the ball with superhuman strength, and he also has an elite plate approach with a 18.9%/13.9% K%/BB%. The surgically repaired knees might become an issue down the line, but they clearly aren’t going to slow him down anytime soon. 2023 Projection: 102/40/111/.302/.400/.578/1

5) Juan Soto SDP, OF, 24.5 – Soto’s numbers fell off hard in San Diego with a .778 OPS and only 6 homers in 52 games. They have one of the worst hitter’s ballparks in baseball, so it would be easy to feel a little trepidation, but betting against Soto seems foolish. His underlying numbers were still elite in San Diego with a 92.1 MPH EV and 14.9%/19.3% K%/BB% in 228 PA. He was very unlucky all year with a .249 BABIP (career .309 BABIP). His .401 xwOBA was the 4th best mark in baseball. The dude is still silly elite. 2023 Projection: 107/31/98/.283/.420/.521/10

6) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 26.3 – Tucker got considerably slower this year with his sprint speed dropping off a cliff to a well below average 26.4 ft/sec, but he still thrived on the bases with a career high 25 steals in 29 attempts. It’s a reminder that there is a lot more to base stealing than just being fast. He combines his base stealing skills with a near elite plate approach (15.6%/9.7% K%/BB%), above average exit velocity (90 MPH), and a launch made for dingers (19 degree launch with 30 homers). People have been slow to buy into Tucker’s elite status, but 2022 should cement it. 2023 Projection: 82/32/97/.271/.340/.507/21

Shadow6) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 28.9 – This is where I would take Ohtani as a hitter only or in a weekly lineup league. 2023 Projection: 94/33/99/.270/.361/.527/18–13/2.94/1.03/199 in 161 IP

7) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS/3B, 22.10 – Bobby Witt was the fastest man in the majors with a 30.4 ft/sec sprint speed (actually tied for first with Jose Siri and Bubba Thompson), at least until someone by the name of Corbin Carroll showed up and put up a 30.7 mark. It led to 30 stolen bases in 37 attempts, and with the new stolen base rules, I’m hesitant to even put a ceiling on what he’s capable of in 2023. There were some swing and miss concerns prior to his debut, but he proved that won’t be an issue with an above average 21.4% K%. His power was good but not great with 20 homers in 150 games, and there is a little Cody Bellinger risk here, in that he hits the ball in the air a lot with a relatively low FB/LD EV (92.6 MPH). Witt’s 16.8 degree launch angle isn’t as extreme as Bellinger’s 20.3 degree launch, his 113.7 Max EV (top 8% of the league) was much higher than Bellinger’s 107.3 MPH Max, and I’m only expecting continued improvements from the still 22 year old Witt. He has scary high upside, and we just saw the floor. 2023 Projection: 87/26/90/.267/.331/.472/36

8) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, SS/OF, 24.3 – Tatis seems to have a karmic black cloud hanging over his head. He had an injured shoulder that kept popping out which he refused to get surgery for, then he fractured his wrist in a motorcycle accident, and then he got popped for a PED suspension which will keep him out 20 games into 2023. They do say bad news comes in 3’s. It does seem like he is trying to make amends now though. He agreed to get shoulder surgery and also underwent wrist surgery. The thing that worries me a little bit is that the doctors were concerned the first wrist surgery wouldn’t hold, so he had to have a 2nd one where they inserted a screw. He’s collecting enough red flags to open a Six Flags Great Adventure amusement park. Despite it all, I still find it hard to believe his best days are behind him. He’s a 24 year old elite athlete with baseball bloodlines. It would be too risk averse to sell low or write him off when the upside is something like 9 more years of elite production. I would take any discount on Tatis that I could get. 2023 Projection: 86/28/84/.273/.355/.558/19

9) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 24.1 – Vlad gave up almost all of the gains he made in 2021. His EV dropped 2.3 MPH to 92.8 MPH, his launch angle dropped 5.1 degrees to 4.3 degrees, and his xwOBA dropped .069 points to .348. He’s still a beast who played in 160 games and jacked 32 homers with a 16.4% K%. He also stole a career high 8 bags. This is basically his floor, and we saw the type of year he could put up when everything comes together. 2023 Projection: 96/34/104/.282/.349/.510/5

10) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 30.11 – Judge hit only 62 homers this year, not even coming close to the home run record of 73. His cute little 207 wRC+ was bested by Barry Bonds 5 times. He also stole only 16 bases, falling short of the vaunted 20/20 season. It was just a disappointment all around, and as a Yankees fan, it’s unacceptable. He wasn’t worth a dollar more than $359,999,999 😉 2023 Projection: 111/43/109/.286/.398/.562/11

11) Trea Turner PHI, SS, 29.9 – It wasn’t Turner’s best statistical season with a 6 year low .809 OPS, a career low 27 steals, and a career worst 26.3% whiff%, but nothing was that far off from career norms. There are also zero signs that he’s slowing down with a super elite 30.3 ft/sec sprint speed, so who knows what he’ll be capable of with the new stolen base rules. There is a chance we see some truly special stolen base seasons in 2023, and Turner is in prime position to lead that charge. His move to Philadelphia doesn’t change his value at all for me. 2023 Projection: 103/23/87/.293/.344/.486/36

12) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 30.6 – Ramirez jammed his thumb at the end of June, which would eventually require off-season surgery, and he wasn’t the same player after that. He had a 1.039 OPS before the injury and a .766 OPS after the injury. He had his usual great year regardless with 29 homers, 20 steals, and a 139 wRC+, but his underlying numbers fell off hard with a below average 87.7 MPH EV and a barely above average .320 xwOBA. Because it is very clear what caused the drop off, and because he should have plenty of time to fully recover this off-season, I wouldn’t drop him at all in rankings. Although this is how a decline can start, with injuries piling up and maybe not healing as well, or as fast as they did when you were in your 20’s. 2023 Projection: 93/30/100/.274/.353/.519/22

13) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 25.1 – Bichette was on his way to a disappointing season before going Mach 5 in his final 42 games, slashing .386/.436/.608 with 7 homers, 6 steals, and a 29/13 K/BB. He had a .716 OPS in the 117 games before that. The plate approach isn’t great (22.2%/5.9% K%/BB%), the launch angle could be better (8.5 degrees), and he’s not that fast (27.5 ft/sec sprint speed), but what he does best is smoking the ball with a 91.9/95.2 MPH AVG/FB EV, and that is almost the most important thing. I’ll keep betting on a 25 year old who crushes the ball with a good feel to hit and some speed. 2023 Projection: 97/27/97/.293/.340/.502/17

14) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 26.5 – Devers is as easy as it comes to evaluate. He demolishes the ball with an elite 93.1 MPH EV, and his 11.3 degree launch angle is geared for both power and average. He also maintained the improved plate approach from 2021 with an 18.6%/8.1% K%/BB%. He’s that perfect combo of being young and established, plus he strikes me as the type who will be able to hit from a wheelchair, meaning I would bet on him producing well into his 30’s. 2023 Projection: 89/29/105/.284/.348/.517/4

15) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 22.1 – Harris got a surprise call-up straight from Double-A and he hit the ground running in the majors, slashing .297/.339/.515 with 19 homers, 20 steals, and a 24.3%/4.8% K%/BB% in 114 games. He has an elite 29.4 ft/sec sprint speed and he hits the ball damn hard with a 89.5/95.8 MPH AVG/FB EV. Both is GB% (56.2% vs. 45.9%) and BB% (4.8% vs. 8.7%) were much better at Double-A than in the majors, so I think it is fair to expect improvements in that area as he refines his game. It’s bonkos he was even able to do what he did as a 21 year old with 196 total AB’s in the upper minors, all at Double-A. He’s an elite dynasty asset. 2023 Projection: 93/22/79/.279/.336/.472/28

16) Wander Franco TBR, SS, 22.1 – A quad injury knocked Franco out for almost all of June and then a wrist injury which required surgery knocked him out for 2 months from early July to early September. The injuries contributed to his mediocre season with his EV tanking to 85.1 MPH after returning from the wrist injury, but it wasn’t the only reason, as he had only 5 homers in 58 games before going down with that injury. He’s simply not geared to be a power hitter at this point in his career, but he’s still so young it would be silly to cap his power upside at this point. He makes so much contact with a 9.6% K% (top 1% of the league) that he doesn’t need to have an extreme launch angle to knock a healthy amount of dingers out, and an 8.2 degree launch is far from hopeless. He also stole 8 bags in 83 games, giving hope he will be more of a mid teens guy than a 10 or under guy. It wasn’t the breakout we were hoping for, but we can’t pine for prospects to get called up in their early 20’s before their prime, and then bemoan the fact they aren’t putting up prime numbers immediately. I’m staying patient and holding strong on his ranking. 2023 Projection: 92/18/76/.292/.348/.447/16 Prime Projection: 106/24/85/.314/.378/.492/15

17) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 30.6 – It’s clear that Betts is entering the back nine of his career, but a superstar talent like this has some tricks in their bag to slow that decline. He cranked a career high 35 homers in 142 games, and he did it by jumping on the first pitch 30.4% of the time, which is a career high by far (19.1% in 2021). The signs of decline could be seen with his sprint speed not bouncing back from an injury filled 2021, and he now has very slightly below average speed (49th percentile). His 14 steal attempts were a career low (other than the shortened 2020). His BA didn’t bounce back either, sitting at .269, and his xBA is saying it isn’t a fluke (.254 xBA). The adjustments Betts’ is making gives hope he can maintain elite, or near elite levels for a few more years, but it’s hard to completely ignore the red flags that have popped up here and there. 2023 Projection: 110/30/78/.277/.351/.527/14

18) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 30.6 – Odds are Bryce Harper is on a win now team in Dynasty, and with news he’s likely to be out for a few months into 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, I would go sniffing around to see if you can land him for any kind of a discount. Tommy John surgery is not nearly as big of a deal for hitters as it pitchers, and it’s very likely he returns to prime form. It also feels like the guy is 35 years old already because he’s been in the league since he was 19, but he’s still only 30 and should have several more years of elite production left. He’s in that true elite of the elite class of player that has a real chance of killing it deep into his 30’s. Harper would have been essentially untouchable before this injury, but now the window is open just a crack, and I would go after him regardless of where my team is in the contention cycle. 2023 Projection: 56/18/54/.281/.380/.525/6

19) Corbin Burnes MIL, RHP, 28.5 – Burnes took a step back in 2022 from super elite, to merely elite with a 2.94 ERA and 30.5%/6.4% K%/BB%. He did so while notching a career high by far 202 IP. He has a perfect mix of safety, upside, track record, and youth that no other pitcher can quite match, making him my #1 overall Dynasty pitcher. 2023 Projection: 14/2.86/.0.95/240 in 195 IP

20) Shane McClanahan TBR, LHP, 25.11 – McClanahan not only backed up his 2021 breakout, he went supernova, ascending to true ace status. He put up a 2.54 ERA with a 30.3%/5.8% K%/BB% in 166.1 IP. The one snag is that a shoulder injury knocked him out for a few weeks in September, and he wasn’t quite the same when he returned with a 5.21 ERA and 12/8 K/BB in his final 19 IP. I’m not really concerned because he was throwing even harder with a 97.2 MPH fastball and he faced a very tough schedule (Toronto twice and Houston twice). He might have been my top pitcher without the injury, but he’ll have to settle for #2. 2023 Projection: 13/3.05/0.99/224 in 185 IP

21) Manny Machado SDP, 3B, 30.9 – Here’s how I closed out the Machado blurb in my 2022 Top 1,000 Rankings, “He’s been a bit inconsistent in his career, going back and forth between great years and solid years since 2017, so if the trend holds, he is in for one hell of a 2022” … well, the trend held and Machado had a hell of a season with a career high 152 wRC+. I could do an extensive analysis of the underlying numbers, but I’m afraid there are large forces at play here. Who am I to question the universe? Machado is due for one of his good but not standout seasons in 2023 (and his underlying numbers agree with a career low .338 xwOBA and 20.7% K%, which is good but not standout). 2023 Projection: 90/33/95/.281/.350/.508/8

22) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS/3B, 21.9 – Nothing makes me more comfortable about a prospect than one who gets called up to the majors and immediately puts up elite exit velocity numbers. Henderson smacked the crap outta the ball to the tune of a 92.4/98.1 MPH AVG/FB EV in 132 MLB PA. That would almost be enough for me to love love a player on it’s own, a la Oneil Cruz, but Henderson does just about everything else well too. His hit tool improved majorly this year, dropping his K% from 30.1% in 2021 in mostly the lower minors, to 23.1% in 2022 in the upper minors. The improvements transferred to the majors with a very reasonable 26.6% whiff% and 25.8% K%. He’s put up high walk rates his entire career and he’s also very fast with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed. He’s almost a flawless prospect. I say “almost,” because he’s struggled vs. lefties in his career, but he’s still very young, so improvement is almost certainly coming, and it’s also a testament to how badly he decimates righties. 2023 Projection: 82/25/85/.262/.347/.473/14 Prime Projection: 106/32/102/.278/.383/.518/16

23) Jacob deGrom TEX, RHP, 34.10 – deGrom is 34 years old, but he is in that tier of elite athlete that could continue to play at a high level into their 40’s. Just look at Tom Brady. He’s 45 and he has 300 pound, sub 5.0 forty guys trying to take his head off. deGrom is in that super elite class, and he doesn’t have to deal with standing strong in the pocket with an unprotected blitz descending upon him. He just put up an absolutely silly 42.7%/3.3% K%/BB% with a 0.75 WHIP in 64.1 IP. Both his 2021 and 2022 have been injury shortened seasons with a UCL and shoulder injury, but I think those numbers speak to themselves as to how the arm was feeling. He could easily have another 5 elite years in the tank, and why not 10. It’s not like young pitching is really any safer, as young pitchers are arguably more risky than older guys. Use deGrom’s advanced age and injury shortened seasons to your advantage. 2023 Projection: 14/2.51/0.95/220 in 170 IP

24) Francisco Lindor NYM, SS, 29.5 – Lindor was one of my top buys in 2022, ranking him 23rd overall in my 2022 Top 1,000 Rankings and closing his blurb by writing, “Lindor is an easy buy this off-season.” As expected, that is exactly how it played out with Lindor bouncing back to finish as the 10th best fantasy player in baseball (Razzball Player Rater). He simply did what he’s done his entire career, which is more or less be an above average player in every facet of the game. He should have a few more years of prime production left before his stolen bases dry up the deeper he gets into his 30’s as he is slowing down a little bit. 2023 Projection: 94/25/89/.263/.330/.453/17

25) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 28.4 – Alonso maintained 100% of the hit tool gains he made in 2021 with a career best 18.7% K% and .271 BA in 2022. Putting up those kind of contact numbers is scary with the kind of power he has, and it led to 40 homers. He is a perennial contender for the home run crown. 2023 Projection: 88/38/110/.268/.356/.520/4

26) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 31.8 – Panic hit the baseball world when it was announced Trout had a “rare” back injury that would require maintenance for the rest of his career, but then he returned from that injury and drilled 16 homers with a 1.056 OPS in his final 40 games. Granted, it came with a 24.3%/8.7% K%/BB%. His swing and miss was at career worst levels even before the injury with a 27.9% K% and 30.2 whiff% on the season. It’s becoming a trend as his K% was up a lot in 2021 as well. I believe we are seeing a glimpse into what the decline phase will look like. His power will thrive, but the batting average and OBP may be coming down. We already know the stolen bases have dried up completely, and that the injury risk is high too. 2023 Projection: 91/42/90/.280/.377/.605/3

27) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 25.8 – Robert battled through a variety of injuries which conspired to tank his season. He battled Covid in late May, picked up a leg injury shortly after that, then battled lightheadedness and blurred vision in July, before a wrist injury in mid August essentially ended his season even though he tried to play through it. He still managed to have a solid season through it all, slashing .284/.319/.426 with 12 homers, 11 steals, and a 77/17 K/BB in 98 games. He took a step back in many areas (Barrel%, EV, launch, sprint speed), but the one area he didn’t take a step back in was hit tool with him putting up a career best 19.2% K%. I feel confident a fully healthy Robert will get back to doing damage as long as he gets the bat on the ball, and the fact he put up career best marks there is very encouraging to me. 2023 Projection: 88/24/91/.277/.328/.460/19

28) Austin Riley ATL, 3B, 26.0 – Riley locked in his status as one of the premier power hitters in baseball in 2022. His 92.5 MPH EV was in the top 4% of the league and it led to 38 homers in 159 games. A 12.9 degree launch should keep his BA high, and he continues to make plate approach gains with a career best 8.2% BB% and 27.6% whiff%. I sense he still doesn’t get quite the respect he deserves, and even this ranking might be too low. 2023 Projection: 87/34/99/.270/.346/.524/1

29) Gerrit Cole NYY, RHP, 32.7 – Cole’s spin rates were just fine, which I figured would be the case with all the spin rate panic last off-season, writing in last year’s Top 1,000, “I’m betting on the spider tack guys getting their mojo back in 2022.” He did put up his worst ERA (3.50), xERA (3.31), K% (32.4%), and xwOBA (.284) since his 2018 breakout, but all of them were just barely 5 year lows. Maybe it is a sign that he is entering the beginning of his decline phase, but all of his pitches were as nasty as ever, so I’m leaning towards it just being normal variance. He’s one of the safest, if not the safest ace in baseball. 2023 Projection: 15/3.26/1.02/250 in 195 IP

30) Sandy Alcantara MIA, RHP, 27.7 – Alcantara’s 228.2 IP led all of baseball, which makes up for his relative lack of strikeouts with a not that far above average 23.4% K%. His game is weak contact with an above average 87.8 MPH EV against, groundballs with a 5.5 degree launch angle, and plus control with a 6.6% BB%. With the new shift rules, Alcantara is the type of pitcher who might take a hit from it, but I don’t think you should overthink it. He’s too good to downgrade him for it. 2023 Projection: 14/3.11/1.04/209 in 215 IP

31) Aaron Nola PHI, RHP, 29.10 – Nola put up a career best 5.2% BB% in 2021, and he took it to another level in 2022 with a crazy elite 3.6%, which was the 2nd best mark among qualified pitchers behind Corey Kluber (3%). The improved control didn’t impact his ability to miss bats (29.1% K%) or induce weak contact (87.7 MPH EV) at all. It led to a 3.25 ERA with a 235/29 K/BB in 205 IP. His 4.63 ERA from 2021 made him an easy buy call and he unsurprisingly bounced right back. 2023 Projection: 14/3.38/0.99/227 in 195 IP

32) Jazz Chisholm MIA, 2B, 25.2 – Chisholm’s season ended in late June with a stress fracture in his back that ended up requiring surgery. To add insult to injury, actually, to add injury to injury, he also underwent surgery in September to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee that he was playing through for most of the season. The fact he was going full breakout with a torn knee is almost more impressive than I am scared off by the knee surgery. He had 14 homers, 12 steals and a reasonable .254 BA in 60 games with strong underlying numbers to back it up (.345 xwOBA, 90.4 MPH EV, 29.2 ft/sec sprint). The back injury sounds scary, but Evan Carter had a stress fracture in his back that ended his season in 2021, and he had a great year in 2022. I can’t deny the double injury is a little concerning, and he certainly would have ranked higher without the injuries, but it’s not enough to scare me off. I would use it as a buying opportunity. 2023 Projection: 79/27/87/.248/.322/.487/18

33) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.7 – Gunnar vs. Carroll is like Witt vs. Julio all over again. Julio pulled into the clear lead this year, but you were happy with either and their values could swing back and forth their entire careers. Gunnar and Carroll are on that same path. Arizona pushed Carroll all the way up to Double-A to start the year and he responded with pure across the board domination (166 wRC+ with 20 steals in 58 games). Triple-A didn’t slow him down much at all (135 wRC+ with 11 steals in 33 games), and then last but certainly not least, he kept it going in the majors, slashing .260/.330/.500 with 4 steals, 2 homers, and a 27%/7% K%/BB% in 32 games. He’s the fastest man in baseball with a 30.7 ft/sec sprint speed. His 85.8 MPH EV and .293 xwOBA isn’t optimal, and it’s the reason I have Gunnar as the #1 prospect in baseball, but I wouldn’t harp on that too much considering the guy literally had only 42 professional games under his belt coming into this year. Carroll is setting up to be an elite fantasy player. 2023 Projection: 81/18/65/.256/.332/.430/24 Prime Projection: 103/23/82/.276/.362/.474/33

34) Brandon Woodruff MIL, RHP, 30.2 – Woodruff was diagnosed with Raynaud’s Syndrome in June, but the diagnoses sounded scarier than the reality as he returned no worse for the wear. His 31.1% whiff% was actually a career best on the back of his changeup taking a step forward with a 54% whiff%. He had his usual elite season with a 3.05 ERA and 30.6%/6.8% K%/BB% in 153.1 IP. 2023 Projection: 14/3.18/1.04/210 in 175 IP

35) Dylan Cease CHW, RHP, 27.3 – Cease has everything but control. He has filthy stuff (96.8 MPH fastball), big K rates (30.4% K%), and induces weak contact (86.8 EV against). The 10.4% BB% adds more risk than the aces ranked above him, and it results in his WHIP being relatively on the high side (1.11). He still put up a 2.20 ERA (2.70 xERA) with the high walk rate, but we’ve seen guys who struggle with control have very inconsistent careers. I’m not scared off by it, but it’s certainly something to keep in mind. 2023 Projection: 14/3.29/1.15/228 in 185 IP

36) Spencer Strider ATL, RHP, 24.5 – Strider’s 38.3% K% was only bested amongst starters by deGrom’s stupid 42.7% K%. It also leads all starters in the history of baseball on the career leaderboard. Clearly it’s a small sample size (131.2 IP), and there is no decline phase which every other retired pitcher has factored in, but it shows the type of insane upside Strider has. He’s mostly a 2 pitch pitcher with a 98.2 MPH fastball and an elite slider that put up a 52.5% whiff%, but the changeup was elite too when he went to it with a .154 xwOBA and 47.5% whiff% (4.8% usage). He doesn’t have control issues either with an about average 8.5% BB%. I named him one of my top mid-season trade targets in late June, essentially calling him the 2022 version of Shane McClanahan, and his value has only skyrocketed since then. 2023 Projection: 13/3.15/1.09/242 in 170 IP

37) Freddie Freeman LAD, 1B, 33.7 – Freeman is an all fields hitter whose homer power was most certainly impacted by the dead ball, hitting an 8 year low (on a per game basis) 21 homers, but not being reliant on homers helped him overcome the ball in general with an elite .403 xwOBA (3rd best overall). He might be the most consistent elite hitter in the game. He also stole a career high 13 bags and has yet to show signs of losing speed. He certainly has the potential to produce deep into his 30’s. 2023 Projection: 112/28/97/.306/.398/.515/11

38) Alek Manoah TOR, RHP, 25.3 – Manoah proved his 4-seamer dominating MLB hitters was no fluke in his 2021 rookie year, backing it up in 2022 with the pitch putting up a negative 19 run value (6th best overall). All 4 of his pitches were firmly above average to plus, and he fired them with plus control (6.5% BB%). He also proved he is a workhorse with 196.2 IP. The swing and miss rates were only average (22.9% K%), and his xERA was much better than his ERA (3.31 xERA vs. 2.24 ERA), but that feels like nitpicking considering he finished the season as the 4th best fantasy pitcher. 2023 Projection: 15/3.15/1.03/188 in 190 IP

39) Corey Seager TEX, SS, 28.11 – Seager doesn’t get the respect he deserves in the fantasy world. The guy is an elite hitter with a .372 xwOBA which was in the top 4% of the league. He has double plus contact rates with a 15.5% K%, he crushes the ball with a 91.1 MPH EV, and his 13.6 degree launch angle is conducive to both power and average. He jacked a career high 33 homers this year and while it came with a .245 BA, a lot of that was bad luck with a career low by far .242 BABIP. While I don’t think the new shift rules will have a major impact in general, Seager could be the type of hitter it helps out a little bit. If he hits .300 next year with 35 homers it wouldn’t be surprising at all. 2023 Projection: 90/30/90/.280/.350/.505/2

40) Carlos Rodon NYY, LHP, 30.4 – All of the injury concern this off-season proved to be for naught as Rodon notched a career high 178 IP, and he only got stronger as the season progressed. He ended up with a pitching line of 2.88/1.03/237/52. His fastball averaged a career high 95.5 MPH and he decided to almost completely ditch his changeup which got destroyed in 2021. Throwing your good pitches more and your bad pitches less is sometimes presented as like some kind of genius revolutionary idea, but it is the most common sense thing in the world. Rodon is straight elite when healthy, and I’m not sure it’s fair to give him all that much of an injury downgrade at this point. Even this ranking could be too cautious. 2023 Projection: 13/3.02/1.05/215 in 170 IP

41) Randy Arozarena TBR, OF, 28.1 – Arozarena continues to defy the Statcast gods, handily outperforming his underlying numbers for the 4th year in a row. He put up a .336 wOBA vs. .301 xwOBA. Being very fast (28.8 ft/sec sprint) and hitting the ball hard (89.9 MPH EV) on a line (8.8 degree launch angle) seems to be the formula to get “lucky.” Luck is the residue of design. He made real contact gains with a career best 28.6% whiff%. It all led to 20 homers, 32 steals, and a .263 BA. Arozarena also seems perfectly positioned to take advantage of the new pick off rules as a young, fast, liberal base stealer. The poor underlying numbers gives me a enough pause to not rank him higher than this, but I also think this ranking shows I’m a believer. 2023 Projection: 80/18/80/.258/.330/.440/30

42) Cedric Mullins BAL, OF, 28.6 – Mullins had one of the best “disappointing” seasons ever with 16 homers and 34 steals, finishing 27th overall on the Razzball Player Rater. He couldn’t come close to matching his 2021 power breakout, and while the dead ball certainly played a big role, it was very obviously a career year that he is unlikely to repeat. Like Arozarena, Mullins has outperformed his underlying statcast numbers his entire career (.328 career wOBA vs. .303 xwOBA), so I wouldn’t panic too much over the very poor .288 xwOBA in 2022, but speed is most certainly the skill you are buying here. 2023 Projection: 87/20/70/.266/.328/.437/36

43) Shane Bieber CLE, RHP, 27.10 – Bieber’s fastball tanked to 91.3 MPH from a high of 94.1 MPH in 2020, which validated the concerns over his strained shoulder coming into the year, but it turned out he doesn’t need the huge fastball to be elite. He put up a pitching line of 2.88/1.04/198/36 in 200 IP. Bieber’s velocity ticked up relatively later in his career, so he already knew how to pitch with a low 90’s fastball, and that was obvious with him compensating by becoming an even more elite control guy with a 4.6% BB%. The underlying numbers didn’t look as good with a 3.51 xERA, but many, many pitchers this year outdid their xERA, so the dead ball probably messed with the numbers a little bit. I’m expecting the balls to be less dead next year, but your guess is as good as mine. The new shift rules will regress some of that BABIP luck as well. 2023 Projection: 14/3.28/1.10/205 in 190 IP

44) Zac Gallen ARI, RHP, 27.8 – An injury marred 2021 had Gallen’s price depressed last off-season, and he rewarded his believers with the best season of his career in 2022, putting up a pitching line of 2.54/0.91/192/47 in 184 IP. He did it on the back of improved control with his BB% dropping 2.8 percentage points to a career best 6.6%, and also increased velocity with is 4-seamer up 0.7 MPH to a career best 94.1 MPH. The only quibble is that his swing and miss is on the decline with a below average, career worst 23% whiff%, but in the context of all the other improvements he made, I wouldn’t be too concerned. Plus his K% was still above average at 26.9%. I would hesitate to put Gallen into that true ace tier, but he’s in the tier right below that one. 2023 Projection: 14/3.21/1.08/195 in 185 IP

45) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 26.3 – Albies season effectively ended in mid June from a broken foot. He returned in mid September only to break his pinky his 2nd game back. Sometimes you just can’t catch a break. Or maybe it was a blessing in disguise as he was in the midst of a pretty bad year with a poor 87.1 MPH EV, .297 xwOBA, and 27.5 ft/sec sprint speed. He had only 8 homers, 3 steals, and a .703 OPS in 64 games. The bottom line is that both the surface and underlying numbers look bad, but his youth and track record is strong enough to overlook it. I seriously doubt he’s all of a sudden not that good. 2023 Projection: 88/25/86/.263/.318/.466/14

46) Julio Urias LAD, LHP, 26.8 – I feel like I’ve been the high guy on Urias since 2019, and continually pushing him up my ranks paid off yet again (37th overall in 2022) with him putting up a pitching line of 2.16/0.96/166/41 in 175 IP. He’s not a big strikeout guy, but he’s a weak contact machine with a 86.7 MPH EV against. He’s never had a mark over 87.1 MPH in his 7 year career. He combines that with near elite control with a 6% BB%, and he should continue to rack up wins on the Dodgers. 2023 Projection: 15/3.17/1.00/174 in 178 IP

Shadow46) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP, 28.9 – This is where I would take Ohtani as a pitcher only. I didn’t think Ohtani would ever throw 166 innings in a single season, and with how much pitchers get restricted these days, that is almost a full workload. 2023 Projection: 13/2.94/1.03/199 in 161 IP

47) Eloy Jimenez CHW, OF, 26.4 – Jimenez went down with a hamstring injury just 11 games into the season, but he returned a man on fire, not only reestablishing himself as one of the premier young power hitters in the game, but also taking his game to the next level. He notched career bests in EV (92.8 MPH), xwOBA (.365), K% (22%), and BB% (8.6%). It led to a slash of .295/..358/.500 with 16 homers in 84 games. His 7.4 degree launch angle isn’t necessarily geared for homers, but it will keep his BA high and he crushes the ball so hard he doesn’t need a huge launch to rack up dingers. The improved plate approach is also a great sign that we could be in store for a monster season in 2023. I’m buying. 2023 Projection: 82/32/95/.274/.337/.512/0

48) Cristian Javier HOU, RHP, 26.0 – There is a starter logjam in Houston (less so at the moment with Verlander leaving town), but I highly doubt one of the smartest teams in baseball leave one of the best starters in the game out of their rotation. And one of the best starters in the game is exactly what Javier is with a 2.54 ERA and 33.2%/8.9% K%/BB% in 148.2 IP. He doesn’t throw gas with a 93.8 MPH 4-seamer, but it was the 10th most valuable 4-seamer in baseball, and his elite slider put up a .175 xwOBA (5th best overall with min 100 PA). Maybe it means Houston goes to a 6 man rotation, but I would be blown away if he isn’t in it. I named him one of my top 10 mid-season trade targets in late June, and his value has skyrocketed since then. 2023 Projection: 13/3.39/1.08/215 in 170 IP

49) George Kirby SEA, RHP, 25.2 – Kirby dominated in his MLB debut with elite control (4.1% BB%) of a legitimate 6 pitch mix (4-seam, curve, cutter, sinker, slider, change). He threw each pitch at least 8% of the time, but the fastball is the money maker, throwing it 45.4% of the time and putting up a negative 18 run value on it, which was the 9th best in baseball. It led to a pitching line of 3.39/1.21/133/22 in 130 IP. As advertised from his prospect days, none of his secondaries are true out pitches, and his 24.5% K% isn’t standout (21.2% whiff% is well below average), but that is one hell of a rookie season. 2023 Projection: 12/3.45/1.11/178 in 170 IP

50) Luis Castillo SEA, RHP, 30.4 – Castillo went from the 2nd worst pitcher’s park in baseball to the very best at the trade deadline, and while his numbers didn’t take a jump, it was only because he was already in the midst of having his best season in Cincinnati. It was the first year of his career with a sub 3.00 ERA, granted just barely with a 2.99 ERA in 150.1 IP. His season was delayed by a shoulder issue, but he looked completely healthy with a 97.1 MPH fastball, and his K% bounced back from a down 2021 with a 27.2% K%. The move to Seattle cements his status as a near ace. 2023 Projection: 14/3.37/1.09/203 in 180 IP

51) Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 24.6 – Cruz is the highest risk, highest reward player in fantasy, and as you can tell from this ranking, I’m betting on the reward. He has truly elite speed with a 29.9 ft/sec sprint speed (top 2%), stealing 11 bags in 87 games. He smokes the ball with a 91.9/97.2 MPH AVG/FB EV, which basically makes him launch angle proof, and an 8.3 degree launch isn’t that bad, leading to 17 homers. It should also help keep his batting average from completely falling off the face of the Earth, because the guy has a wee bit of a strikeout problem with a 34.8% K% and 35.4% whiff% (.233 BA). I like to take strategic risks in fantasy (if you can’t take risks in fantasy, when can you take risks?), and I’m betting on that K rate coming down because his strikeout rates in the minors really weren’t all that bad. I remember when Aaron Judge put up a 44.2% K% in his MLB debut and everyone got scared off, but I didn’t get scared off, and I’m not getting scared off Cruz either. 2023 Projection: 76/27/84/.244/.316/24 Prime Projection: 86/32/99/.258/.337/.512/26

52) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.1 – Chourio is on that Acuna/Tatis superstar path, where they didn’t necessarily put up elite plate approach numbers on the come up, but they were so young for the level and the talent is so huge it doesn’t really matter. Chourio had a generational type season, making it all the way to Double-A as an 18 year old to close out the year. Milwaukee knew they had something special, skipping him right over stateside rookie ball, and they were proven right with him destroying Single-A with a 160 wRC+. He then went to High-A and actually improved his K% with it dropping 6.2 percentage points to 21.8%. He got eaten up in 6 games at Double-A with a 42.3% K%, but I wouldn’t even blink an eye at that. He’s an electric ballplayer with a lightning quick, powerful swing to go along with at least plus speed. Now is the time in a superstar’s career where dynasty mistakes are made. Don’t sell Chourio for anything less than an elite return. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 98/29/96/.276/.351/.502/16

53) Jose Altuve HOU, 2B, 32.11 – Altuve started running again out of nowhere and stole 18 bags in 19 attempts. Good luck trying to predict steals, and that goes doubly for 2023 with the new rules. His power was unaffected by the dead ball with 28 homers, even though his 85.9 MPH EV was a career low. He’s been pulling the ball in the air more than ever these past 2 seasons, and pulled flyballs were least affected by the dead balls. He also notched a career best 10.9% BB% as the cherry on top. 2023 Projection: 95/26/72/.288/.364/.490/14

54) Max Fried ATL, LHP, 29.2 – Fried’s control went from plus to elite with a 4.4% BB%, and it led to the best year of his career with a pitching line of 2.48/1.01/170/32 in 185.1 IP. I’ve noticed many guys with good control took it to another level in 2022, and I suspect it’s because they were less afraid to attack the plate with the dead ball. The balls may be less dead in 2022 (or may not be), but it’s not like Fried isn’t damn good with a “regular” ball, and he improved his arsenal this year by making his changeup a legitimate 5th pitch. He threw it a career high 14.1% and it put up an excellent .207 xwOBA with a 36.7% whiff%. He now has 5 pitches that range from above average to elite. A big K rate is the only thing missing. 2023 Projection: 14/3.00/1.07/170 in 180 IP

55) Zack Wheeler PHI, RHP, 32.10 – Wheeler battled some shoulder soreness before the season, and a forearm injury kept him out for a month in August/September. It resulted in a small drop in velocity, but he had plenty of velocity to spare with it dropping 1.3 MPH to a still excellent 95.9 MPH. It also didn’t result in any performance decline as his elite control (5.6% BB%) and weak contact (85.9 MPH EV against) profile led to a 2.82 ERA with a 163/34 K/BB in 153 IP. He also dominated the playoffs with a 2.67 ERA in 30.1 IP. 2023 Projection: 14/3.08/1.05/199 in 185 IP

56) Paul Goldschmidt STL, 1B, 35.7 – Maybe I’m doing too much of “I told you to buy this guy and then he exploded after that,” but I put so much time into this and I’m proud of my hits. And I’ve genuinely hit on a ton of guys (I have misses too like Grandal, Tork, Giolito, and Nestor Cortes, among others). Goldy was my top mid-season trade target in late June of 2021, and since then he literally flipped a switch and turned back into an elite performer. His huge 2021 2nd half continued into 2022 where Goldy put up a 177 wRC+ in 151 games. He overperformed the underlying numbers by a good bit (.419 wOBA vs. .367 xwOBA), but his xwOBA was still in the top 5% of the league. He’s 35 now and I don’t think you can expect this level of production for much longer, but you can’t let an elite bat like this fall much further than this, even in a dynasty league. 2023 Projection: 95/32/99/.291/.390/.522/8

57) Joe Musgrove SDP, RHP, 30.4 – Musgrove throws a 6 pitch mix and all 6 pitches put up an above average xwOBA against. It led to a career best 2.93 ERA in 181 IP. Pitching to contact was all the rage this year, and Musgrove is a man of the times with his BB% dropping 1.5 percentage points to 5.7%, inducing tons of weak contact with a 86.4 MPH EV against. His K% went down with it, dropping 2.2 percentage points to 24.9%, but like I’ve mentioned, it seemed to be a conscious choice with the dead balls. 2023 Projection: 13/3.37/1.11/189 in 180

58) Kevin Gausman TOR, RHP, 32.3 – It turns out that Gausman didn’t turn to dust with his move from San Francisco to Toronto, putting up a pitching line of 3.35/1.24/205/28 in 174.2 IP. His 3.9% BB% and 3.34 xERA were both career bests. His elite splitter was tied for the 2nd most valuable splitter in baseball with Taijuan Walker, and behind my boy Tony Gonsolin. 2023 Projection: 13/3.48/1.16/210 in 180 IP

59) Nolan Arenado STL, 3B, 32.0 – Arenado put up a .381 wOBA vs. a .339 xwOBA, but he’s outperformed his xwOBA every year of his career, so I don’t think it means much. It’s because he doesn’t exactly crush the ball with an average-ish 88.7 MPH EV, but he obviously doesn’t exert himself an inch more than is needed as he slashed .293/.358/.533 with 30 homers and a 72/52 K/BB in 148 games. His 11.6% K% was the 2nd best mark of his career. 2023 Projection: 83/32/100/.277/.341/.510/3

60) Tyler Glasnow TBR, RHP, 29.8 – Glasnow returned from Tommy John surgery just in time to show everyone he is back to being elite, going 11.2 IP with a 15/0 K/BB and 1 ER, including the playoffs. The fastball sat 97.4 MPH and the 38.5%/7.7% K%/BB% shows the whiffs and control were in prime form. Durability is the biggest factor with him never throwing more than 111.2 IP in the majors, but he’s truly elite if he can stay healthy. 2023 Projection: 11/3.38/1.12/180 in 150 IP

61) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.3 – Elly De La Cruz might still be a high risk, high reward prospect, but in 2022 the risk got a whole lot less, and the reward got a whole lot more. He put up one of the those stupid good seasons in the minors, slashing .304/.359/.586 with 28 homers, 47 steals, and a 30.8%/7.8% K%/BB% in 120 games split between High-A and Double-A. He ripped up both levels, and most importantly, he didn’t let his K% skyrocket at Double-A. He’s currently playing in the pitcher’s haven Dominican Winter League, which is a grown man’s league (he’s about 8 years younger than average), and it’s great sign that he’s running a 26.7%/15.8% K%/BB% in 101 PA. It sure seems like he will be able to continue to improve the plate approach rather than it going in the opposite direction. The numbers he can potentially put up at Great American Ballpark are scary. 2023 Projection: 32/11/35/.232/.294/.433/12 Prime Projection: 87/30/98/.250/.331/.503/30

62) Dustin May LAD, RHP, 25.7 – May returned from Tommy John surgery in late August, and while he wasn’t able to seamlessly pick up from his 2021 breakout, he showed the ingredients to get back there in 2023. He continued to throw the 97.2 MPH sinker much less in favor of his 98.1 MPH 4 seamer and secondaries (curve, cutter, change), which drove his 2021 breakout. The improved whiff% remained with a strong 29.7% whiff%, and he kept the ball on the ground as always with a 4.7 degree launch. Control is often the last thing to come back after returning from Tommy John, and that proved true for May as he had a career worst by a mile 11% BB%, which led to the poor 4.50 ERA in 30 IP. He’s had plus to elite control his entire career though, so I would be shocked if that didn’t bounce back in 2023. You have one last off-season to buy into May, because he’s headed for a monster 2023. 2023 Projection: 12/3.32/1.08/160 in 150 IP

63) Tommy Edman STL, 2B/SS, 27.11 – Edman’s power ticked up in his age 27 season with a career best 88.6 MPH EV and 6.2% Barrel%. It led to 13 homers and a .725 OPS, which is a bit of a bummer if that is the best he can do, but taking into account the dead ball it was good for a 108 wRC+. What you’re buying here is stolen bases, and Edman is an elite base stealer with 32 steals in 35 attempts. He’s perfectly set up to take advantage of the new stolen base rules. 2023 Projection: 88/14/59/.271/.325/.405/35

64) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 21.11 – Volpe got off to a rough start at Double-A with a .647 OPS and 24% K% in his first 37 games, but he came alive after that, slashing .286/.374/.536 with 13 homers, 26 steals, and a 14.4%/10.7% K%/BB% in 72 games. He does it all with a mature plate approach, plus game power, and plus stolen base ability. Despite the 17.7% K% at Double-A on the season, he still hit only .251 because of an extreme 56.9% flyball percentage. If the balls stay dead, it could be an issue because he isn’t a huge raw power guy at 5’11”, 180 pounds. He also struggled when he got the call to Triple-A with his K% spiking to 30.3%, and putting up a 91 wRC+ in 22 games. The profile isn’t flawless, but he has a super fantasy friendly skillset, and he was a 21 year old in the upper minors, so further refinement is surely coming. He’s an elite prospect. 2023 Projection: 38/10/35/.236/.316/.421/12 Prime Projection: 89/26/88/.267/.341/.473/21

65) Jordan Walker STL, 3B/OF, 20.11 – Nobody smashes the ball as hard as the 6’5”, 220 pound Walker. One thing we don’t have to worry about is him getting to the majors and putting up like an 84 MPH EV. He’s gonna hit it hard. He was a 20 year old at Double-A and ripped 19 homers with 31 doubles in 119 games, good for a 128 wRC+. He then wrecked the AFL with 5 homers, 6 doubles, and a .925 OPS in 21 games. He has some swing and miss in his game, but it’s far from the danger zone with a 21.6%/10.8% K%/BB%, and he has plus speed with 22 steals, although considering his size, you might not want to count on him majorly in that category. He started to transition to the OF, which gives him a path to playing time with Arenado locked in at 3B. 2023 Projection: 42/12/47/.251/.326/.461/7 Prime Projection: 92/33/105/.267/.346/.513/12

66) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 20.8 – Lawlar left everyone from his 2021 FYPD class in the dust in 2022. He slashed .303/.401/.509 with 16 homers, 39 steals, and a 25.1%/12.4% K%/BB% in 100 games split between 3 levels (A, A+, AA). He only had a 65 wRC+ in 20 games at Double-A but he jacked 4 homers and his plate approach didn’t completely collapse or anything (28.9%/10.3%). It was impressive he made it all the way to Double-A at all. He then destroyed the AFL with a .997 OPS in 11 games. He has a smooth and simple righty swing that is geared for power and average to go along with plus speed. He’s an elite prospect. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 92/24/86/.270/.348/.470/26

67) Max Scherzer NYM, RHP, 38.9 – Scherzer showed zero signs of decline in 2022 when on the mound. He put up a 2.29 ERA with a 30.6%/4.2% K%/BB% in 145.1 IP. The K’s were down slightly, but that was a trend around the league. The only way age reared it’s ugly head was with durability. He battled an oblique injury which led to career low in IP (other than his rookie year and 2020), and he hasn’t been able to surpass 179.1 IP since 2018. Don’t count on huge innings totals, but all signs point to him continuing to be elite. You deserve an elite prospect for him if you’re selling in dynasty. 2023 Projection: 14/2.98/0.98/209 in 175 IP

68) Framber Valdez HOU, LHP, 29.5 – Valdez was born to do one thing, and that thing is killing worms. He throws a 5 pitch mix and all 5 pitches induce grounders. His negative 3.6 degree launch angle is bested only by Clay Holmes’ ridiculous negative 8.1 degree launch. His 93.9 MPH sinker, which he goes to almost half the time, is his money maker, but his curveball, cutter, and changeup all graded out to almost elite when he went to them with a .202, .200, and .222 xwOBA against, respectively. He proved his walk rate won’t be a major issue with a 8.1% BB% and he also proved his durability with 201.1 IP. He’s not a true fantasy ace because he doesn’t rack up K’s and his WHIP’s are on the high side, but he’s in the tier right under that. 2023 Projection: 15/3.29/1.18/185 in 188 IP

69) Matt Olson ATL, 1B, 29.0 – Olson wasn’t able to maintain the BA and strikeout gains he made in 2021 with his K% jumping back up 7.5 percentage points to 24.3% and his batting average tanking to .240. The power was no problemo though with him jacking 34 homers with an elite 92.9 MPH EV (top 3%). He’s one of the premier power hitters in the game, but the hope he could consistently marry the power with a high BA has dissipated. 2023 Projection: 88/35/105/.250/.340/.506/2

70) Dansby Swanson CHC, SS, 29.2 – Swanson’s power continues to tick up, beating the dead ball back with a stick (literally), smacking 25 homers with a career best 90.2 MPH and 15.7 degree launch. He also ran more than ever with 18 steals in 25 attempts. He needed BABIP luck (.348 BABIP) to notch a .277 BA as his plate approach remains average to below average with a 26.1%/7.0% K%/BB%, and with him landing in Chicago (8th worst park for righties), I would expect that BA to come down. 2023 Projection: 81/26/88/.260/.327/.452/14

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on February 1, 2023February 9, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 500 Prospects Rankings for 2023 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Leagues

It’s Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings Week over on the Patreon, and we kick it off today with the Top 500 Prospects Rankings for 2023 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Leagues. The Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings will drop tomorrow at the earliest, and Monday at the very, very latest. These lists will be released here on Imaginary Brick Wall in mid to late March. Here is the Top 500 Prospects Rankings for 2023 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Leagues:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 1,000 2023 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 109 2023 FYPD RANKINGS w/ Strategy & Target Guide
-All-In-One Rankings Spreadsheet
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: Top 305 SP//Top 282 OF//Top 151 SS//Top 115 3B//Top 105 2B//Top 95 1B//TOP 68 C//Top 64 RP
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1) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS/3B, 21.9 – Nothing makes me more comfortable about a prospect than one who gets called up to the majors and immediately puts up elite exit velocity numbers. Henderson smacked the crap outta the ball to the tune of a 92.4/98.1 MPH AVG/FB EV in 132 MLB PA. That would almost be enough for me to love love a player on it’s own, a la Oneil Cruz, but Henderson does just about everything else well too. His hit tool improved majorly this year, dropping his K% from 30.1% in 2021 in mostly the lower minors, to 23.1% in 2022 in the upper minors. The improvements transferred to the majors with a very reasonable 26.6% whiff% and 25.8% K%. He’s put up high walk rates his entire career and he’s also very fast with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed. He’s almost a flawless prospect. I say “almost,” because he’s struggled vs. lefties in his career, but he’s still very young, so improvement is almost certainly coming, and it’s also a testament to how badly he decimates righties. 2023 Projection: 82/25/85/.262/.347/.473/14 Prime Projection: 106/32/102/.278/.383/.518/16

2) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.7 – Gunnar vs. Carroll is like Witt vs. Julio all over again. Julio pulled into the clear lead this year, but you were happy with either and their values could swing back and forth their entire careers. Gunnar and Carroll are on that same path. Arizona pushed Carroll all the way up to Double-A to start the year and he responded with pure across the board domination (166 wRC+ with 20 steals in 58 games). Triple-A didn’t slow him down much at all (135 wRC+ with 11 steals in 33 games), and then last but certainly not least, he kept it going in the majors, slashing .260/.330/.500 with 4 steals, 2 homers, and a 27%/7% K%/BB% in 32 games. He’s the fastest man in baseball with a 30.7 ft/sec sprint speed. His 85.8 MPH EV and .293 xwOBA isn’t optimal, and it’s the reason I have Gunnar as the #1 prospect in baseball, but I wouldn’t harp on that too much considering the guy literally had only 42 professional games under his belt coming into this year. Carroll is setting up to be an elite fantasy player. 2023 Projection: 81/18/65/.256/.332/.430/24 Prime Projection: 103/23/82/.276/.362/.474/33

3) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.1 – Chourio is on that Acuna/Tatis superstar path, where they didn’t necessarily put up elite plate approach numbers on the come up, but they were so young for the level and the talent is so huge it doesn’t really matter. Chourio had a generational type season, making it all the way to Double-A as an 18 year old to close out the year. Milwaukee knew they had something special, skipping him right over stateside rookie ball, and they were proven right with him destroying Single-A with a 160 wRC+. He then went to High-A and actually improved his K% with it dropping 6.2 percentage points to 21.8%. He got eaten up in 6 games at Double-A with a 42.3% K%, but I wouldn’t even blink an eye at that. He’s an electric ballplayer with a lightning quick, powerful swing to go along with at least plus speed. Now is the time in a superstar’s career where dynasty mistakes are made. Don’t sell Chourio for anything less than an elite return. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 98/29/96/.276/.351/.502/16

4) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.3 – Elly De La Cruz might still be a high risk, high reward prospect, but in 2022 the risk got a whole lot less, and the reward got a whole lot more. He put up one of the those stupid good seasons in the minors, slashing .304/.359/.586 with 28 homers, 47 steals, and a 30.8%/7.8% K%/BB% in 120 games split between High-A and Double-A. He ripped up both levels, and most importantly, he didn’t let his K% skyrocket at Double-A. He’s currently playing in the pitcher’s haven Dominican Winter League, which is a grown man’s league (he’s about 8 years younger than average), and it’s great sign that he’s running a 26.7%/15.8% K%/BB% in 101 PA. It sure seems like he will be able to continue to improve the plate approach rather than it going in the opposite direction. The numbers he can potentially put up at Great American Ballpark are scary. 2023 Projection: 32/11/35/.232/.294/.433/12 Prime Projection: 87/30/98/.250/.331/.503/30

5) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 21.11 – Volpe got off to a rough start at Double-A with a .647 OPS and 24% K% in his first 37 games, but he came alive after that, slashing .286/.374/.536 with 13 homers, 26 steals, and a 14.4%/10.7% K%/BB% in 72 games. He does it all with a mature plate approach, plus game power, and plus stolen base ability. Despite the 17.7% K% at Double-A on the season, he still hit only .251 because of an extreme 56.9% flyball percentage. If the balls stay dead, it could be an issue because he isn’t a huge raw power guy at 5’11”, 180 pounds. He also struggled when he got the call to Triple-A with his K% spiking to 30.3%, and putting up a 91 wRC+ in 22 games. The profile isn’t flawless, but he has a super fantasy friendly skillset, and he was a 21 year old in the upper minors, so further refinement is surely coming. 2023 Projection: 38/10/35/.236/.316/.421/12 Prime Projection: 89/26/88/.267/.341/.473/21

6) Jordan Walker STL, 3B/OF, 20.11 – Nobody smashes the ball as hard as the 6’5”, 220 pound Walker. One thing we don’t have to worry about is him getting to the majors and putting up like an 84 MPH EV. He’s gonna hit it hard. He was a 20 year old at Double-A and ripped 19 homers with 31 doubles in 119 games, good for a 128 wRC+. He then wrecked the AFL with 5 homers, 6 doubles, and a .925 OPS in 21 games. He has some swing and miss in his game, but it’s far from the danger zone with a 21.6%/10.8% K%/BB%, and he has plus speed with 22 steals, although considering his size, you might not want to count on him majorly in that category. He started to transition to the OF, which gives him a path to playing time with Arenado locked in at 3B. 2023 Projection: 42/12/47/.251/.326/.461/7 Prime Projection: 92/33/105/.267/.346/.513/12

7) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 20.8 – Lawlar left everyone from his 2021 FYPD class in the dust in 2022. He slashed .303/.401/.509 with 16 homers, 39 steals, and a 25.1%/12.4% K%/BB% in 100 games split between 3 levels (A, A+, AA). He only had a 65 wRC+ in 20 games at Double-A but he jacked 4 homers and his plate approach didn’t completely collapse or anything (28.9%/10.3%). It was impressive he made it all the way to Double-A at all. He then destroyed the AFL with a .997 OPS in 11 games. He has a smooth and simple righty swing that is geared for power and average to go along with plus speed. He’s an elite prospect. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 92/24/86/.270/.348/.470/26

8) James Wood WAS, OF, 20.6 – Wood was one of my top 2022 FYPD targets and I was able to scoop him in my 18 team First Year Player Draft that I broke down last off-season on Patreon. He surpassed even my expectations as he played like a man amongst boys at 6’7”, 240 pounds, slashing .313/.420/.536 with 12 homers, 20 steals, and a 21.6%/14.4% K%/BB% in 76 games at Single-A. He absolutely smashes the ball and he proved his hit tool isn’t a major red flag, to say the least, it might actually be an asset. Wood is a unicorn athlete in the mold of an Aaron Judge and Oneil Cruz. He’s in the “untouchable” category for me. I’m not trading him. ETA: 2024/25 Prime Projection: 88/28/93/.262/.355/.513/14

9) Miguel Vargas LAD, 3B, 23.4 – Vargas made his MLB debut in 2022 and while he only put up a .455 OPS in 50 PA, there is nothing I love more than seeing rookies hit the ball hard. He had a well above average 89.7/94.1 MPH AVG/FB EV. He’s also much faster than advertised with a 29.3 ft/sec sprint speed which in the top 6% of the league. He had no trouble lifting the ball with a 25.7 degree launch angle and has no swing and miss issues with an average 24.3% whiff%. His elite plate approach at Triple-A (14.6%/13.7% K%/BB%) shows better days are likely ahead there too. Speaking of Triple-A, he slashed .304/.304/.511 with 17 homers and 16 steals in 113 games. He’s currently the favorite to be LA’s starting 3B in 2023, and the numbers indicate this guy has star potential. 2023 Projection: 72/21/75/.258/.327/.445/11 Prime Projection: 93/27/87/.272/.345/.483/15

10) Zac Veen COL, OF, 21.4 – It’s a mistake to think more power isn’t coming for Veen. And maybe a lot more. He’s a skinny 6’4” with an explosive lefty swing that is a thing of beauty. He’s guaranteed to put up legit power numbers when he grows into his frame. It reminds me of what I predicted in February 2022 about my #9 prospect, Miguel Vargas, when people were fading him because of his low EV numbers in my Predicting the 2023 Top 50 Dynasty Baseball Prospects: “Vargas’ exit velocity numbers will increase, and the hardhit data will catch up to the surface power numbers, rather than the other way around. I’m hesitant to cap a young prospects power potential just because they don’t put up grown man exit velocities in the minors. It’s almost like people forgot power is often the last thing to come for prospects, especially ones who don’t sell out for it and have really strong contact numbers and plate approaches.” Vargas EV numbers looked damn good in his MLB debut this year. The power is coming for Veen too, and when it does, it will be combined with plus speed and a strong plate approach. That is star potential playing at Coors Field. He did struggle in his callup to Double-A (42 wRC+ with a 29.8% K% in 34 games) after handling his business at High-A (126 wRC+ with a 22.5%/12.% K%/BB% and 50 steals in 92 games), but a ton of super talented 20 year olds struggled considerably at Double-A this year, so I wouldn’t let it completely tank your opinion of him. There is still more work to be done, but I’m willing to stay patient for it, and it creates a buying opportunity this off-season that will likely disappear very quickly into 2023. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 93/28/91/.273/.345/.492/17

11) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.2 – It felt like everyone was just waiting for Dominguez to fail, the ole build em up so we can tear em down, but Dominguez refused to blink. He’s now officially living up to the hype with a big 2022, slashing .273/.376/.461 with 16 homers, 37 steals, and a 24.2%/13.6% K%/BB% in 120 games mostly at Single-A and High-A. He actually performed better at High-A with a 146 wRC+ and 18.5% K%, and he even made it Double-A for 5 games and wasn’t overmatched with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 5/3 K/BB (despite a .467 OPS). His tools are still big and back up the numbers with plus speed and plus power. If he keeps this up at Double-A as a 20 year old, he’ll be in the mix for #1 fantasy prospect in the game very quickly into 2023. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 88/28/93/.261/.345/.491/18

12) Druw Jones ARI, OF, 19.4 – Selected 2nd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Jones has that classic tall and projectable build that screams upside, and he has elite bloodlines with Andruw Jones being his father. He has near elite speed (6.31 60 yard dash) and truly elite bat speed (99.42 percentile-besting some marks put up by bat speed monster Harry Ford last year). His power has also exploded this year, with him launching some homers that blew up on Twitter (Will Hoefer). He hurt his shoulder during BP before he was able to debut and underwent surgery to repair it, but I dropped Lawlar from the #1 slot in my first year player draft rankings last year after his shoulder injury, and I’m not making the same mistake with Jones ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 93/30/104/.274/.355/.515/20

13) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.4 – Baseball is starting to feel like it is a hereditary monarchy, where all star games are passed down based on bloodlines like it’s the 1300’s. Jackson is the son of Matt, commander of the Armies of the North, General of the Felix Legions and loyal servant to the true emperor, Marcus Aurelius. Father to a murdered son. Husband to a murdered wife. And I will have my vengeance, in this life or the ne … my bad, lost myself there 🙂 … Like many plus bloodline kids, Jackson is an advanced hitter, and he combines that with plus athleticism and a plus power/speed combo. He truly wields the bat like it’s a samurai sword, gracefully killing the ball with a smooth and powerful lefty swing. He stepped right into pro ball and was far too advanced for rookie ball (220 wRC+ with a 6.1%/30.3% K%/BB% in 8 rookie ball games) before performing well in 12 games at Single-A (130 wRC+ with a 17.5%/26.3% K%/BB%). Druw Jones and Holliday are in a tier of their own on my First Year Player Draft Rankings. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 96/25/88/.278/.357/.491/14

14) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 23.5 – Rodriguez is my #1 pitching prospect in baseball and is a good bet to break camp with the team. He really shouldn’t be considered a prospect anymore. He should have graduated. But he did what pitching prospects do and missed 3 months with a lat strain. He was a bit rusty when he returned in September with a 4.12 ERA and 29/14 K/BB in 19.2 IP. He had a 2.09 ERA with a 80/14 K/BB in 56 IP at Triple-A before going down with the injury. When completely healthy he has plus control of a devastating 4 pitch mix, all of which have the potential to be at least plus. It’s true ace upside. 2023 Projection: 10/3.73/1.22/161 in 150 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.15/1.05/240 in 200 IP

15) Andrew Painter PHI, RHP, 19.5 – In a Mock First Year Player Draft last off-season for Baseball Prospectus, I drafted Andrew Painter 21st overall and wrote, “I generally lean toward hitting prospects in dynasty, but I’m not afraid to take a shot on a couple of pitchers. Painter is a big dude who checks a lot of boxes. My plan is to sell him when he hits his peak on prospect lists, and before he goes all Forrest Whitley on us at Triple-A” … but now that Painter has hit his peak on prospect lists, it’s so damn hard to sell. It’s so easy to fall in love with pitching prospects, but some do actually stay healthy and pan out, right? Painter seems like he is going to be one of those that do. He had a silly pitching line of 1.56/0.89/155/25 in 103.2 IP spread across 3 levels (A, A+, AA). He’s 6’7”, 215 pounds with plus control of an upper 90’s fastball, plus slider, potentially plus change, and an average curve. He just seems can’t miss … but if he does miss, my 2021/22 off-season self will just be shaking his head and laughing at me. 2023 Projection: 4/3.79/1.24/63 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.18/1.06/235 in 200 IP

16) Eury Perez MIA, RHP, 20.0 – Perez is a tall drink of water at 6’8”, 220 pounds (interestingly, or not so interestingly, “tall drink of water” was originally used as a derogatory term for a flavorless weakling, but mysteriously evolved into a compliment in the mid 1900’s), and he uses that frame to fire a mid to upper 90’s fastball with an easy, athletic delivery. He combines that with 3 potentially plus secondaries in his changeup, curve, and slider, to go along with plus control. It’s a flawless profile. The production is there too with a 34.1%/8.1% K%/BB% in 75 IP as a 19 year old at Double-A. A rough patch at the end of July (10.64 ERA in 11 IP) marred his end of season ERA at the level (4.08), and it resulted in him hitting the IL with a shoulder issue that kept him out until mid September. It’s a reminder of how risky all pitching prospects are, no matter how can’t miss they seem. 2023 Projection: 3/3.85/1.23/47 in 45 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.26/1.08/210 in 180 IP

17) Ricky Tiedemann TOR, LHP, 20.8 – Tiedemann checks almost every box for a potential young ace. He has prototypical size at 6’4”, 220 pounds, with a nearly side arm lefty delivery that he uses to fire a mid 90’s fastball and 2 devastating secondaries in his slider and change. Minor league hitters had no chance. He put up a pitching line of 2.17/0.86/117/29 in 78.2 IP split across 3 levels (A, A+, AA). Maybe the only quibble is that he doesn’t have pinpoint control, but it’s not an issue or anything. He’s the top lefty pitching prospect in the game, and considering Toronto’s relatively depleted organizational pitching depth, don’t be surprised if he gets a ton of MLB innings in 2023.. 2023 Projection: 3/3.88/1.29/54 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.31/1.11/220 in 190 IP

18) Shane Baz TBR, RHP, 23.10 – Baz underwent Tommy John surgery in late September and will miss all of 2023. His elbow problems started in Spring when he underwent arthroscopic surgery. He was able to make it back for a month in June-July, and the stuff was still huge, but he eventually succumbed to the Tommy John. Like Buehler, I would optimally wait until next off-season to target him, but if you’re a rebuilding team he’s a great target. 2023 Projection: OUT Prime Projection: 13/3.38/1.09/198 in 170 IP

19) Francisco Alvarez NYM, C, 21.4 – Alvarez is a 5’10”, 233 pound ball of muscle who walloped 27 homers in 112 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He then got a cup of coffee, or more like a sip of coffee in the majors and it took him only 14 PA to get his first MLB dinger. He had a 101.5 MPH FB/LD EV in that obviously very small sample, but it drives home the point that Alvarez has near elite power potential, especially for a catcher. He has some swing and miss in his game (24.8% K%), but he’s an OBP machine with a 14.1% BB%. Adley is the darling of the catcher world right now, but Alvarez’s superior over the fence power could easily make him the more valuable catcher not too far into the future. The Mets starting catcher job is wide open for the taking at the moment, but it seems they want him to get more defensive seasoning before handing the reins over to him. 2023 Projection: 47/20/61/.240/.331/.457/2 Prime Projection: 84/33/96/.254/.361/.520/3

20) Daniel Espino CLE, RHP, 22.3 – Espino was on his way to an insane season before falling off the face of the earth. He had a 2.45 ERA with a 35/4 K/BB in 18.1 IP at Double-A in April and then he never pitched again. It started as a knee issue and then turned into a shoulder issue too. Cleveland has kept the injury information very close to the vest so it’s unclear how serious the injuries are, but it was obviously serious enough that it ended his season. The stuff is so nasty with a 5 pitch mix led by an upper 90’s fastball and plus slider, that I would hesitate to sell low on him based on the mysterious injury risk. He has the upside to be a true fantasy ace and he’s knocking on the door of the bigs. Give me all the risk. 2023 Projection: 3/3.83/1.30/65 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.41/1.19/195 in 165 IP

21) Ezequiel Tovar COL, SS, 21.8 – In yet another testament to Colorado’s odd prospect developmental strategy, to put it nicely, Tovar went down with a hip/groin injury on June 29th at Double-A, and Colorado decided it would be best to have him return directly to Triple-A on September 15th before rushing him to the majors after just 5 games at that level. It’s almost as if they had a preset plan for Tovar’s season which they didn’t adjust at all based on what was actually happening. Regardless, Tovar is a good enough prospect to overcome Colorado’s brain trust. He’s not the type to jump off the screen, but he has a plus hit tool with developing power and base stealing skills. He slashed .319/.387/.540 with 14 homers, 17 steals, and a 66/27 K/BB in 71 games at mostly Double-A. I’m not sure the power/speed numbers will pop as much in the majors, but Coors should juice his best skill, batting average, and the SS job is his for the taking. 2023 Projection: 72/16/64/.261/.317/.402/13 Prime Projection: 86/22/71/.278/.332/.434/15

22) Kyle Manzardo TBR, 1B, 22.9 – I nicknamed Manzardo “Italian Lunch” in my in-season Dynasty Rundowns for a reason, because if you liked Italian Breakfast (Vinnie P), you’re going to love the next Italian meal (Manzardo). Like Vinnie, Manzardo has an elite plate approach with plus power. He slashed .327/.426/.617 with 22 homers and a 65/59 K/BB in 93 games split between High-A and Double-A. He barely dropped off at Double-A with 9 homers and a 148 wRC+ in 30 games. His path to playing time isn’t crystal clear with Tampa’s never ending depth (Aranda, Mead, and more), but that’s just the game with Tampa. If he produces when he gets his shot, they will find a spot for him. 2023 Projection: 19/5/23/.268/.334/.447/0 Prime Projection: 86/27/91/.281/.363/.488/1

23) Royce Lewis MIN, SS, 23.10 – I named Lewis a to player target last off-season, imploring you to buy the dip coming off a torn ACL. Now it’s deja vu all over again with Lewis once again down with a torn ACL, and once again I’m imploring you to buy the dip. He was in the midst of fully living up to his 1st pick overall hype, majorly improving his plate approach with a 20.9%/11.8% K%/BB% in 34 games at Triple-A. His power took a step forward as well with 5 homers and he maintained his plus speed with 12 steals. He quickly got called up to the majors and impressed with a 90.7 MPH EV, 12.2% K% and 146 wRC+ in 41 PA before going down with the injury in late May. I can’t deny that a 2nd torn ACL in the same knee is concerning, but Lewis has youth, and athleticism to spare on his side. He was blowing up to such a high level that I think downgrading Lewis too much based on the injury risk would be a mistake. 2023 Projection: 33/8/28/.258/.319/.423/5 Prime Projection: 84/24/82/.273/.335/.463/13

24) Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 23.3 – Casas is an OBP machine. He has a career .374 OBP in 284 minor league games and then he put up a .358 OBP with a 20% BB% in his 95 PA MLB debut. In an OBP league, he has a chance to be a real difference maker. It’s not so cut and dry in a 5×5 BA league. He’s never hit for high BA’s in the minors (career .269 BA) and he hit .197 (.193 xBA) in the majors. He’s a huge man with huge raw power, but he’s never really put up monster home run totals (11 homers in 72 Triple-A games). He doesn’t sell out for power. Boston’s hitter’s park should juice up all of his numbers, and I like Casas a lot regardless of league type, but I might curb your enthusiasm a little bit in a 5×5 BA. 2023 Projection: 78/24/81/.249/.334/.462/1 Prime Projection: 89/29/94/.263/.368/.510/2

25) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 21.0 – Armstrong had the power breakout I predicted in my Predicting the 2023 Top 50 Dynasty Baseball Prospects from last off-season, writing, “Armstrong will not only pick up where he left off before he underwent shoulder surgery, he will show power potential many people doubt he has.” He ended up jacking 16 homers in 101 games split between Single-A and High-A. His speed wasn’t undersold either as he nabbed 32 bases. His plus CF defense will get him on the field, he has a good feel to hit, plus speed, and developing power. That is a beautiful fantasy profile. He’s not a finished product as his plate approach took a step back at the more age appropriate High-A with a mediocre 24%/4.9% K%/BB% in 63 games, but he could explode to elite prospect status if he performs in the upper minors in 2023. There is still a small buy window. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 88/18/66/.273/.335/.431/26

26) Hunter Brown HOU, RHP, 24.8 – Houston still has a full rotation even with Verlander leaving, but Brown will inevitably get his shot eventually, and I have no doubt he will thrive when he does. He throws a 96.6 MPH fastball that put up a .167 BA against in his 20.1 IP MLB debut, to go along with a plus slider (.246 xwOBA) and curve (.167 xwOBA). It led to a 0.89 ERA and 22/7 K/BB. He dominated at Triple-A too with a 2.55 ERA and 31.5%/10.6% K%/BB% in 106 IP. He’s likely a mid rotation fantasy starter as is, and if he can improve his control and/or his splitter/changeup, he has legitimate top of the rotation upside, especially in Houston’s pitching factory. He’s a major off-season target as he doesn’t get the hype that other top pitching prospects receive. 2023 Projection: 6/3.85/1.28/95 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.55/1.23/190 in 175 IP

27) Bobby Miller LAD, RHP, 24.0 – Miller is 6’5”, 220 pounds with ace level stuff. He throws a fastball that sits in the upper 90’s, a filthy upper 80’s MPH changeup that gets about 10 MPH separation from the fastball, and 2 plus breaking balls in his slider and curve. His 4.25 ERA in 112.1 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A was surprisingly underwhelming considering the stuff. Part of it is because his fastball is relatively hittable, and while he doesn’t have major control problems, he’s no Greg Maddux. The other part of it is likely bad luck as his 30.5%/8.1% K%/BB% and 3.47 xFIP at Double-A looks much better than the 4.45 ERA he put up at the level. He has ace upside, and with the Dodgers’ pitching development prowess, mid-rotation might be his floor. 2023 Projection: 5/3.85/1.26/82 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.48/1.18/202 in 180 IP

28) Curtis Mead TBR, 3B, 22.6 – Mead is a safe bet to be a very good MLB hitter, but there are a few snafu’s keeping me from going too crazy for him. He’s not a good defensive player, which could be a problem with Tampa’s never ending depth. He’s not a huge base stealer and he has a line drive approach, so he might not put up huge power/speed numbers. His season also ended with a sore elbow, which I wouldn’t be too concerned about, but it is one more thing to tack on. I don’t mean to sound the alarm bells, because I do like him a ton. He hits the ball very hard, he has an excellent plate approach with an 18.1%/10.9% K%/BB%, and he crushed the upper minors with a 146 wRC+ at Double-A and 129 wRC+ at Triple-A. Carlos Correa over the last few years could be a good ceiling comp offensively. 2023 Projection: 26/7/29/.265/.327/.433/2 Prime Projection: 91/24/86/.282/.351/.473/5

29) Noelvi Marte CIN, SS, 21.5 – There is nothing scouts hate more than when players start to fill out before they want them to fill out, and I think scouts overestimate their ability to predict when players will lose their athleticism in general. Having said that, Marte filled out in 2022 and he’s definitely starting to look more like a thick, power hitting corner infielder than a wiry strong SS. It’s going to hurt his ranking on real life lists, but I would be careful about discounting him too much for fantasy. He has big time power (19 homers in 115 games at High-A), speed (23 steals), and while his hit tool isn’t great, he has a strong plate approach (20.1%/11.3% K%/BB%). He’s not a finished product, and I wouldn’t expect huge steal totals, but he can be mighty dangerous in the friendly confines of Great American Ballpark. He wouldn’t be untouchable for me (I recently traded him away in my 12 teamer for Cristian Javier), but I would need a very exciting win now piece to deal him. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 84/27/89/.263/.338/.484/12

30) Marcelo Mayer BOS, SS, 20.4 – One look at Mayer’s controlled and explosive lefty swing really says it all. He used that swing to dominate Single-A in every facet of the game (150 wRC+ in 66 games), and then mostly did the same to close out the season at High-A (127 wRC+ in 25 games). His 25.2% K% is maybe slightly higher than you would like to see, but he mitigated that with a 16% BB%, and he was also a perfect 17 for 17 on the bases. He’s not a burner, but with the new stolen bases rules coming to the majors, maybe he’ll be able to nab more than we are expecting. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 94/25/87/.271/.363/.484/10

31) Oswald Peraza NYY, SS/2B, 22.10 – Like Volpe, Peraza started the year cold with a .583 OPS and 25.6% in his first 46 games at Triple-A before turning it around. He slashed .316/.382/.560 with 14 homers, 22 steals, and a 21.4% K% in his final 53 games at the level. He got called up to the majors in September and thrived, slashing .306/.404/.429 with 1 homer, 2 steals, and a 15.8%/10.5% K%/BB% in 57 PA. Statcast backs up the numbers with a well above average .343 xwOBA and 28.9 ft/sec sprint speed. The one red flag is his 81.6/84.0 MPH AVG/FB EV. That is quite low on 40 batted balls. It’s a small sample and he obviously has more power than that, but the power numbers he put up in the minors in 2021-22 could be misleading for what he will do in the majors. 2023 Projection: 58/14/59/.246/.303/.400/16 Prime Projection: 81/21/77/.269/.327/.441/22

32) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 20.7 – Carter was chugging along with a very good season at High-A, slashing .287/.388/.476 with 11 homers, 26 steals, and a 16.8%/13.2% K%/BB% in 100 games, and then he closed out the year with a bang at Double-A, slashing .429/.536/.714 with 1 homer, 2 steals, and a 6/5 K/BB in 6 games. His elite plate approach is made even more impressive by how young he has been at every level he’s played at. He has plus speed, and at 6’4”, 190 pounds, he should naturally grow into more power, although his short and quick lefty swing is geared more for line drives. He could be a difference maker in OBP leagues, and in 5×5 BA he’s setting up to be a solid across the board type. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 89/20/77/.276/.365/.449/15

33) Emmanuel Rodriguez MIN, OF, 20.1 – I nicknamed Rodriguez Baby Bonds in the early season Dynasty Baseball Rundowns for a reason. He’s an OBP monster with a 28.6% BB% and .492 OBP, to go along with a plus power (9 homers) and speed (11 steals) in 49 games at Single-A. Granted he doesn’t have nearly Bonds’ hit tool with a 26.1% K%, but 3 outta 4 ain’t bad. In an OBP league, I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say he has elite upside. His season ended early when he tore his meniscus sliding into a base, but in my professional opinion a meniscus tear isn’t as bad as an ACL tear. I wouldn’t let the injury scare you off him too much. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 88/26/82/.251/.357/.485/12

34) Tink Hence STL, RHP, 20.8 – Say hello to the 2024 top pitching prospect in baseball. Hence was treated with kid gloves in 2022, never going over 4 IP, but he checked literally every other box. His stuff is straight filthy with 4 potentially plus pitches (mid 90’s fastball, curve, slider, change), he has an extremely athletic delivery with insane arm speed that reminds me a bit of Pedro Martinez, and his numbers were lights out with a pitching line of 2.16/0.96/81/15 in 52.1 IP at Single-A. He’s certainly getting plenty of hype right now, but it’s going to look like nothing compared to the hype explosion that’s coming in 2023. I was just able to nab him at 44th overall in the Toolshed Prospect Mock with other prospect writers/podcasters, so I think his price could still be relatively reasonable this off-season. He’s a buy high. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 14/3.29/1.09/205 in 180 IP

35) Kyle Harrison SFG, LHP, 21.8 – Harrison is almost guaranteed to be an impact fantasy starter because this guy is going to rack up K’s no matter what. He had a stupid 50% K% in 29 IP at High-A (1.55 ERA) and a 36.4% K% in 84 IP at Double-A (3.11 ERA) on the back of an elite fastball/slider combo from a 3 quarters lefty delivery. He mixes in a legitimate changeup as well. The only question is how high his WHIP will get on the MLB level, because his control is still knocking on the door of the danger zone with an 11.2% BB% at Double-A. It’s not so bad to get very concerned, but it’s bad enough to keep him from ascending to the true elite pitching prospect tier. From a numbers standpoint, Blake Snell is not the worst comp. 2023 Projection: 3/3.88/1.33/34 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.41/1.25/191 in 165 IP

36) Josh Jung TEX, 3B, 25.2 – Jung returned from shoulder surgery in late July and he must have been rusty because his plate approach was uncharacteristically horrific. He put up a 28.3%/3.8% K%/BB% in 23 games at Triple-A and a 38.2%/3.9% K%/BB% in 26 games in his MLB debut. It’s so out of pocket from the rest of his career. He had a 22.2%/9.1% K%/BB% in 78 games in the upper minors in 2021, so I’m inclined to cut him some slack. Shoulder injuries can sometimes sap power, but he was just fine in that category, jacking 9 homers in 31 minor league games and 5 homers in 26 MLB games. His 85.5 MPH EV and .287 xwOBA wasn’t great, but there was no guarantee he was even going to play in 2022 considering he underwent surgery in late February, so everything should look much better after a normal off-season and as he gets further away from the injury. 2023 Projection: 70/25/83/.252/.326/.462/3 Prime Projection: 84/29/91/.268/.343/.497/3

37) Brett Baty NYM, 3B, 23.5 – There is little doubt that the 6’3”, 210 pound lefty Baty is going to be a very good real life hitter. He smokes the ball with a 91.1 MPH EV and he has an excellent plate approach with a 24.8%/11.7% K%/BB%, leading to a .943 OPS in 95 games at mostly Double-A. He got called up to the majors and while he only put up a .586 OPS in 11 games, his .332 xwOBA was much better and a 19% K% is a good sign his K% isn’t going to explode. It’s a line drive approach (10 degree launch) with below average speed (26.8 ft/sec sprint), making him a very safe bet to be an impact bat, but likely without monster upside in a 5×5 BA league. He tore the UCL in his thumb in late August which required surgery, but he’ll be good to go for 2023, and with Correa not signing, the path to playing time is much more open now. 2023 Projection: 51/15/54/.253/.332/.440/2 Prime Projection: 84/25/86/.267/.349/.472/2

38) Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 23.0 – Cowser’s hit tool got exposed this year, putting up a 28.4% K% at High-A, 25.4% K% at Double-A, and 30.6% K% at Triple-A. It’s a little concerning considering that was supposed to be his best skill, but it’s not like he’s chopped liver everywhere else. He walked a ton with a 15% BB%, and he displayed an above average power/speed combo with 19 homers and 18 steals in 138 games. Even with the high strikeout rates he still put up a .278 BA. He showed more risk than optimal in 2022, but it was still a positive year overall with a .874 OPS. His strong across the board profile remains intact. 2023 Projection: 20/4/18/.248/.319/.405/4 Prime Projection: 85/20/77/.264/.343/.442/15

39) Robert Hassell WAS, OF, 21.8 – Hassell is becoming quite the divisive prospect, and it all comes down to his upside. His groundball rates were over 50% and he hit only 11 homers in 112 games split between High-A and Double-A. He’s fast, but he’s not an absolute burner, stealing only 1 bag in 27 games at Double-A (23 steals in 85 games at High-A). He has a potentially plus hit tool, and while a 19.9% K% at High-A is good, it’s not close to being elite, and it jumped to 28.7% at Double-A. He doesn’t have that one truly impressive tool. Having said that, the guy is just a damn good all around ballplayer, and there is still room to pack on muscle to his 6’2” frame. You don’t have to squint all that hard to see a future where he goes 20/20 with a good BA and high OBP hitting atop Washington’s lineup. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 87/18/72/.273/.348/.425/18

40) Taj Bradley TBR, RHP, 22.0 – Bradley is a similar pitching prospect to what Logan Gilbert and George Kirby were. He heavily relies on an at least plus, mid 90’s fastball which he has plus control over, but the secondaries aren’t really standout. He’s also not as big as Gilbert and Kirby, which I don’t like to harp on, but it does factor in. He destroyed Double-A with a 1.70 ERA and 88/18 K/BB in 74.1 IP before taking a small step back at Triple-A with a 3.66 ERA and 53/15 K/BB in 59 IP. If his secondaries take a big jump, he can be a fantasy ace, but he’s more likely to settle into that 2/3 area. 2023 Projection: 3/3.83/1.23/47 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.41/1.08/176 in 170 IP

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)