Jacob Melton – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on May 15, 2023May 19, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/15/23)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/15/23):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 433 MAY DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 324 APRIL PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (4/28/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG! (5/16/23)
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (5/19/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-PREDICTING THE 2024 TOP 50 PROSPECTS RANKS

Christopher Morel CHC, 2B/OF, 23.10 – They say good things come to those who wait, and the Morel owners who waited are now enjoying good things as he jacked his 3rd homer in 21 PA. He has a 1.238 OPS with a 92.4 MPH EV, 1 steal, and most importantly, the whiff% is all the way down to a reasonable 28.9%. He was one of my favorite targets this off-season, and I sure as hell waited while bad vets got the nod over him even while he was destroying spring pitching and destroying Triple-A. Come to think of it, the people who say “good things come to those who wait” are usually the ones screwing you over, but Morel refused to be held down for long, and his fantasy owners are now reaping the benefits. He checked in at #227 on the Updated May Top 433 Dynasty Baseball Rankings that just dropped on the Patreon last week, and that number will keep rising if he keeps performing and locks in playing time.

Jordan Walker STL, 3B/OF, 21.0 – Jordan Walker owners were given immediate gratification with him making the team out of camp and look how that worked out for them. He had mediocre results and then very quickly got sent back to down to Triple-A to work on his launch angle. Let’s check in to see how that launch is looking after a 3 for 5 day yesterday: 28.6% FB%. Not great, and it’s led to a 60 wRC+ in 15 games at Triple-A. He’s still crushing the ball and the plate approach is good, so I wouldn’t be worried, but the Cardinals very publicly announced what they wanted to see from him, and they quite clearly haven’t seen it yet. I’m guessing they will call him back up eventually regardless of his launch, but it would have been easier if he was able to successfully make that adjustment.

Alex Kirilloff MIN, 1B/OF, 25.7 – Kirilloff owners have been waiting for damn near 4 years, and quite frankly, you have the patience of a saint if you kept him on your roster all this time, but now that saintly patience is paying off. He went 2 for 6 yesterday and now has a 1.309 OPS with 2 homers, a 93.1 MPH EV and a 17.9%/21.4% K%/BB% in 28 PA in the majors. He looks healthy and as long as he stays that way, he’ll likely keep raking. I’m buying.

Brandon Pfaadt ARI, RHP, 24.7 – Tom Petty said the waiting is the hardest part, but he obviously never owned Pfaadt in dynasty, because watching him get shelled once he did get the call has surely been the hardest part. The waiting was the easy part in hindsight. But he had his best MLB outing yesterday, going 5 IP with 1 hit, 1 ER, and a 5/3 K/BB vs. SFG. The fastball sat 93.4 MPH and he induced weak contact with an 83.5 MPH EV against. It’s still been super rough overall with an 8.59 ERA in 14.2 IP, and all of his pitches are getting destroyed. I can’t lie, it’s a little concerning as he doesn’t necessarily have stuff, but really nothing you can do but keep waiting.

Zach Neto LAA, SS, 22.2 – Fuck waiting. Sometimes you have to take what you want, and that is why Neto was my 3rd ranked FYPD prospect, because I knew he would be fast tracked to the bigs. But even I didn’t expect it to happen so fast, and considering the rush job LA put on him, he’s been pretty damn good. He went 1 for 3 with a 100.6 MPH double off none other than a 98.9 MPH Emmanuel Clase fastball. He now has a 15.7% K%, 89.3 MPH EV, 7.9% Barrel%, and a .326 xwOBA. He’s setting a very strong foundation, and the best is almost certainly yet to come.

Matt McLain CIN, 2B/SS, 23.8 – Strand and Elly owners will have to keep waiting, because Yippee-ki-yay, it’s McLain time. He’s been out of his mind at Triple-A, slashing .348/.474/.710 with 12 homers, 10 steals, and a 19.7%/16.8% K%/BB% in 38 games, earning every bit of this callup. And I don’t see him going anywhere as long he performs decently well. He’s shown some hit tool issues in the past and he’s not a huge raw power guy, but he’s a pick up in all league sizes if he happens to still be out there on your wire.

Tanner Bibee CLE, RHP, 24.2 – Can I shoehorn this waiting theme into one more player … hmmmmmm … I got nothing. Bibee owners waited the appropriate amount of time and he’s been impressive from the get go. He went 7.2 IP with 2 hits, 1 ER, and 7/2 K/BB vs. LAA. The fastball sat 95.2 MPH and he put up a 29% whiff% overall. Bibee is well on his way to becoming a Top 100 dynasty asset with a 3.22 ERA and 25%/4.5% K%/BB% in 22.1 IP. He currently sits at #165 on the Updated Dynasty Rankings.

Louie Varland MIN, RHP, 25.4 – 6.1 IP, 4 hits, 3 ER, 7/1 K/BB vs. CHC. Varland was my first “full breakout alert” in the Dynasty Rundowns back in early April, and there wasn’t much waiting after that as he quickly got called up to the majors. He hasn’t necessarily exploded with a 4.30 ERA in 23 IP, but the stuff looks great led by a 95.1 MPH fastball, and so does the 28.4%/6.3% K%/BB%. I still think he’s a bit underrated.

James Wood WAS, OF, 20.7 – Wood went 3 for 3 with 2 doubles, a dinger, and a 0/2 K/BB at High-A as he’s now officially destroying the level with 5 homers, 5 steals, and a 137 wRC+ in 31 games. The one quibble is that the K% is all the way up to 29%. Strikeouts were always going to be a part of his game at 6’6”, and he can thrive even with a high K rate, but it does add risk, and it will be interesting to see if he can keep it in check when he gets to Double-A.

Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 22.0 – Jones is the older version of Wood. He went 3 for 5 with 2 doubles, 1 steal, and most importantly, 0 K’s. He’s crushing High-A with 6 homers, 9 steals, and a 143 wRC+, but that 32.2%/5.8% K%/BB% is pretty rough. He just turned 22 yesterday (Happy Birthday, Spence), so he’s a young 22, but he’ll likely need to make legitimate hit tool and plate approach improvements if he wants his power/speed combo to shine in the majors. He was my 5th ranked FYPD prospect, and I still love him, but we can’t completely ignore those K/BB numbers as much as I want to.

Jacob Melton HOU, OF, 22.9 – Melton cracked his 5th homer at High-A and is doing what an advanced college bat is supposed to do in the lower minors. Along with the 5 homers, he has 12 steals with a 26%/19% K%/BB% and a 136 wRC+ in 22 games. We just gotta watch that K%, but the power/speed combo is very legit. He’s exciting.

Gavin Cross KC, OF, 22.2 – Cross is doing whatever the opposite of “doing what an advanced college bat is supposed to do in the lower minors,” as he’s looked terrible at High-A even after going 2 for 4 yesterday. He has a 62 wRC+ with a 32.8%/7.3% K%/BB% in 31 games. The hit tool was the one iffy part of his game coming out of the draft, and that’s playing out right now. We saw him molten hot last year to start his pro career, so I wouldn’t completely overreact to the still small sample, but it’s simply not what you want to see.

Marco Luciano SFG, SS, 21.7 – Lucky Luciano launched his 2nd bomb in 10 games at Double-A, but it came on a 1 for 5 with 3 K day. He now has a 50 wRC+ with a 40% K% at the level, and it just feels like the shine continues to come off that formerly pristine prospect hype. He’s still a good prospect, but I’m not sure he really stands out anymore, although maybe we have to give him some more time to shake the rust off as he’s coming off a stress fracture in his back this off-season.

Kyren Paris LAA, 2B/SS, 21.5 – Paris was a named target for me this off-season, and he’s been a beast all season at Double-A. He went 2 for 3 with his 9th homer on a beautiful swing yesterday. He’s now slashing .239/.390/.487 with 9 homers, 10 steals, and a 31.9%/17.7% K%/BB% in 31 games. The power has taken a major step forward, which is huge to see considering his double plus speed. The hit tool is still a major concern which prevents his hype from truly exploding, but this is an extremely high upside fantasy player who still gets almost no love. I’m still buying despite the risk.

Justyn-Henry Malloy DET, 3B/OF, 23.4 – 1 for 2 with a homer and 3 walks. The hard hitting Malloy is now slashing .323/.455/.526 with 7 homers and a 24.2%/17.6% K%/BB% in 38 games at Triple-A and I can’t imagine it is much longer before he gets the call. I think he’s likely to be a better real life hitter than fantasy, but that doesn’t mean he can’t make a fantasy impact too. He’s a great stash in any league.

Luis Matos SFG, OF, 21.3 – Matos drilled his 3rd homer and he did it with a swing that looks ready made for the majors. Quick and powerful. He’s bouncing back in a big way from a down 2022, slashing .304/.398/.443 with 3 homers, 9 steals, and a 9%/12.8% K%/BB% in 31 games at Double-A. A few more bombs like that and his formerly elite prospect hype could sneak back up on us. He’s a major riser this year regardless.

Ryan Bliss ARI, 2B/SS, 24.5 – Bliss has lived up to his name and then some with his performance at Double-A. He went 3 for 6 with a double, homer, and 2 steals yesterday, and is now slashing a blissful .406/.433/.672 with 6 homers, 11 steals, and a 20.1%/4.5% K%/BB% in 29 games. He’s a particularly small guy at only 5’6”, but check out this swing on yesterday’s dinger, he definitely has some pop in there. The plate approach is mediocre and so is the power, which makes it hard to buy in too hard, but how can you argue with that performance.

Spencer Arrighetti HOU, RHP, 23.5 – 7 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 9/2 K/BB at Double-A. Arrighetti was a target of mine this off-season, and while he struggled to start the year, he now has a 0.53 ERA with a 19/6 K/BB in his last 17 IP. He sure looks like he’s finding his rhythm, and like most Astros pitching prospects for some weird reason, he flies way under the radar.

Jackson Rutledge WAS, RHP, 24.2 – 6 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 5/0 K/BB at Double-A. Rutledge has been performing rock solidly all year with a 2.72 ERA in 39.2 IP, and he has the big stuff to back it up. I still don’t love the 23.7%/9% K%/BB%, he’s been injury prone in his career, and that ERA probably has some good luck involved, but there is a clear path to a rotation spot with Washington’s depleted roster. Not the worst stash if you missed out on the more hyped recently called up pitching prospects.

Cory Lewis MIN, RHP, 22.7 – Lewis was drafted in the 9th round last year, but he’s performing like anything but a 9th rounder after throwing 5.2 perfect innings with 7 K’s. He has a 2.43 ERA with a 33.3%/6.8% K%/BB% in 29.2 IP at Single-A. He throws a low 90’s fastball, but it has plus spin, and at 6’5”, 220 pounds, it gets great extension too. He rounds out of the repertoire with a power breaker he throws in the dirt, a slower one he can throw for strikes, and a lesser used changeup. Definitely an intriguing pop up pitching prospect to at least keep an eye on.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on March 6, 2023March 6, 2023 by Michael Halpern

3/6/23 Spring Dynasty Baseball Rundown

I do these Dynasty Baseball Rundowns all year, mostly on the Patreon, but also a few times a month here on the Brick Wall. Here is the 3/6/23 Spring Dynasty Baseball Rundown:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE & EARLY ACCESS CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 1,000 2023 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-TOP 500 2023 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKS
-TOP 109 2023 FYPD RANKINGS w/ Strategy & Target Guide
-OBP TOP 500 2023 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-PTS/6+CAT/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 500 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-POSTION BY POSITION TARGET/SLEEPER/UNDERRATED SERIES
-ALL-IN-ONE RANKINGS SPREADSHEET
-PREDICTING THE 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECTS RANKS

Andrew Painter PHI, RHP, 19.5 – The pitching prospect went pitching prospect. Painter felt elbow tenderness following his Wednesday spring debut and we are now awaiting an update. This is like when lion and tiger tamers get attacked by the big cats. You know what you’re getting into when owning a pitching prospect. I grabbed Painter in a Mock First Year Player Draft last off-season for Baseball Prospectus and wrote, “My plan is to sell him when he hits his peak on prospect lists, and before he goes all Forrest Whitley on us at Triple-A.” It brings me no joy to have seen the future. It’s a gift and a curse.

Forrest Whitley HOU, RHP, 25.7 – Speaking of the Ghost of Christmas Future, some of Whitley’s control problems popped back up in his 2nd spring outing, going 2 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, 1 HB (hit batter) and a 1/1 K/BB. He got hit up for 4 hits and 2 ER in his first 2 inning outing. He still has huge stuff, but after getting crushed at Triple-A in 2022, he has a lot to prove to regain his once elite pitching prospect status. Let’s hope this truly isn’t a window into Painter’s future, and we hear today that it is no big deal.

Mike Moustakas COL, 3B/1B, 34.6 – The Rockies went Rockies. They just can’t help themselves. They signed the washed up vet so he can block three solid prospects in Elehuris Montero, Nolan Jones, and Michael Toglia. You know what you’re getting into when you own non elite Rockies prospects. At least they seem to be rolling out the red carpet for Ezequiel Tovar (.912 OPS in 17 PA).

Kodai Senga NYM, RHP, 30.2 – Senga made his much anticipated debut and went 2 IP with 1 hit, 1 ER, and a 2/2 K/BB. The fastball averaged 97 MPH, but it only put up a 10% whiff% on 10 swings, and got hit up with a 93 MPH EV against. He also struggled to find his control in the first inning. The sweeper, cutter, and forkball were all working, and here is an overlay of the fastball/forkball combo which shows how much of a nightmare it will be to face this guy. Overall, it was an impressive first outing which clearly showed off his upside. The stuff is legit.

Riley Greene DET, OF, 22.6 – Greene’s crushing the ball this spring, going 1 for 3 with a 109.5 MPH lineout off Tyler Mahle and a 106.5 MPH double off Pablo Lopez. He also destroyed a 417 foot opposite field homer on Friday. He now has a 1.077 OPS in 13 PA. All signs are pointing towards a big year 2, especially with Detroit bringing the fences in. He’s a buy coming off his decent but unspectacular rookie season.

Jarred Kelenic SEA, OF, 23.9 – Kelenic hit a truly jaw dropping homer to deeeeeeeeepppppp centerfield off an elite pitcher (Devin Williams). I love the dingers where the outfielders barely even move because it’s so obvious. He went 2 for 3 on the day and now has a 1.529 OPS with 4 homers in 17 PA. The 5/0 K/BB still isn’t great, and we’ve seen him destroy Spring the past 2 years, so it’s hard to really buy back in. But at the same time, giving up on a formerly elite prospect at 23 years old seems too harsh. His speed, or lack thereof with a below average 27.2 ft/sec sprint last year is another reason for the rankings drop. A low BA slugger seems to be a reasonable outcome for him, but the upside we hoped for as a prospect is likely wishful thinking.

Jose Miranda MIN, 3B/1B, 24.9 – Miranda went deep twice off a pair of mediocre at best lefties. We know he can mash lefties, it’s vs. righties that I’m slightly concerned about. He’s not a good defensive player, and Minnesota is building up some enviable infield depth throughout their organization. It wouldn’t be surprising if he sits often vs. righties in the not too distant future. It’s why I can’t go higher than 247th overall on him in my 2023 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings. I would tread a little carefully here.

Trevor Rogers MIA, LHP, 25.3 – Rogers looked sharp again in his 2nd spring outing, going 3 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 2/0 K/BB. I already warned about completely writing him off, and his strong start to spring makes me even more comfortable about buying a bounce back. I’m buying low coming off the classic Sophomore slump in 2022.

Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.2 – Dominguez scooped a pitch out of the dirt for his 2nd spring bomb and now has a 1.417 OPS in 14 PA. The level of competition he’s faced is only about Double-A quality, but he only needs to beat up on Double-A quality pitching this year for his stock to soar. You guys already know I’ve been shouting from the rooftops all off-season that he’s getting underrated, and his huge spring just solidifies that stance.

Oswaldo Cabrera NYY, 2B/SS/OF, 24.1 – Cabrera went deep as well, and his came off none other than Charlie Morton on a fastball that caught too much of the plate. It’s his 2nd and he now has a .980 OPS in 18 PA. He’s locking in his super utility role at the very least, and he could easily overtake Hicks for the starting LF job at any point.

Orelvis Martinez TOR, SS, 21.4 – Martinez crushed a 104.6 MPH dinger for his first of the spring, showing off his easy plus power with a beautiful righty swing. While other 20 year olds were beating up on lower minors pitching, he was thrown into the fire at Double-A and drilled 30 homers. The BA was low and the plate approach was rough, but you have to take the advanced level of competition into account. He’s in for a big year his 2nd go around in the upper minors, and you’ll regret selling too low on him this off-season. I’m buying the value dip.

Jacob Melton HOU, OF, 22.7 – Melton continues to quietly produce in his limited opportunities, going 1 for 1 with a walk yesterday and now has a 1.357 OPS with a 3/1 K/BB in 8 PA. He utterly destroyed the Pac 12 in 2021-22, and then he crushed Single-A in his pro debut. Now he’s crushing Spring pitching. He ranked 32nd overall on my 2023 Top 110 FYPD Rankings, and is a great college upside bat to target. The K rates have been on the high side everywhere he’s been, so there is some risk too.

Kris Bryant COL, OF, 31.3 – Bryant is putting any and all injury concerns to rest with a monster spring. He crushed a 109 MPH, 425 foot homer off Drew Smyly for his 3rd of the spring. He has a 1.512 OPS in 14 PA. There is no guarantee he stays healthy all year, which is the where the risk comes in, but if he does, there is a chance he blows up hitting in Coors.

Paul Sewald SEA, Closer Committee, 32.10 – 1 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 1/0 K/BB. Sewald looked healthy out there in his first outing coming off some minor heel and elbow surgeries this off-season. He has at least a share of the closer job, and as the incumbent veteran, I lean towards him having the lion’s share of the job.

Nick Lodolo CIN, LHP, 25.2 – Lodolo looked sharp in his 2nd outing, going 3 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 4/1 K/BB. He was only going about 75% with his velocity down 2.2 MPH to 92.2 MPH, but against Oakland’s embarrassing roster, 75% is all you need.

Taj Bradley TBR, RHP, 22.0 – 1 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 1/0 K/BB. Bradley’s outing was on Saturday, but it was too impressive not to mention especially with so many prospect lists starting to fade him. The fastball sat 97.1 MPH, and here is a look at a truly devastating changeup (which Statcast classifies as a sinker). The cutter dominated too. The stuff is filthy and he combines that with plus control. If he’s not an elite pitching prospect, he’s near elite, and I’m not sure why his hype tailed off this off-season. Don’t make that same mistake yourself.

Samad Taylor KCR, 2B/OF, 24.9 – Taylor got ahold of his first homer, and is having a nice spring with a 1.286 OPS and 2 steals in 14 PA. It’s nice to see coming off a terrible AFL performance (.555 OPS in 76 PA). He has a fantasy friendly profile and he can play all over the field. I don’t think he’s first up to get an opportunity in KC, but he will likely get his shot at some point during the season due to injury or underperformance, and he’s well worth a pick up at that point. He’s the type you keep an eye on.

Dominic Smith WAS, 1B, 27.9 – Smith is starting to find his rhythm, ripping his first spring homer on Saturday, and going 2 for 2 with a double and a walk yesterday. He now has a 1.136 OPS with a 1/2 K/BB in 14 PA. He definitely looks a little sleeker and is better shape out there to me. The upside might not be huge in a terrible lineup and with a line drive approach, but it certainly seems a bounce back is coming from his terrible 2021-2022. And even in 2021-22 he underperformed his underlying numbers, so a luck bounce back is due is as well.

Jo Adell LAA, OF, 24.0 – 0 for 3 with 2 K’s and is 0 for 11 with 8 K’s in his last 4 games as he sinks further and further into the abyss …

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)