Posted on by Michael Halpern · 2 Comments

Chicago Cubs 2025 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

It’s all about the Cubbies on the Brick Wall today! I dive into their Top 11 Prospects, analyze their most interesting young MLB players, and then I jump off the Matt Shaw blurb to talk about how good the little man discount has been to me over the years in the Dynasty Strategy section. Like during the regular season, I will be posting a few articles a month for free here on Imaginary Brick Wall with the vast majority of the content over on the Patreon. This is one of those articles. Here is the Chicago Cubs 2025 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 75 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2025 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2024 TOP 322 PROSPECTS RANKS
-END OF SEASON 2024 438 DYNASTY RANKS
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS with full scouting reports and prime projections (a Top 100+ is coming later this off-season)
-2025 DEEP DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 Catchers
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: END OF SEASON MAILBAG!
-SPREADSHEETS
-OFF-SEASON CONTENT! – Dynasty Team Reports, Deep Positional Rankings, Predicting Future Prospect Lists, Fall/Winter League Updates, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks, Top 500+ Prospects Ranks, Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks & so much more!

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon (free ones listed in parenthesis)

Atlanta Braves—Baltimore Orioles—Cincinnati Reds–Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Detroit Tigers—Los Angeles Angels—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers (free)—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—Oakland Athletics—Philadelphia Phillies—Pittsburgh Pirates—San Diego Padres—Tampa Bay Rays—Washington Nationals (free)

Hitters 

Pete Crow-Armstrong – CHC, OF, 23.0 – Pete Crow Armstrong’s power has been underrated from the time he was drafted. He was my #1 target in his 2020/21 FYPD class after getting drafted a ridiculous 19th overall, writing in his FYPD blurb, “Armstrong stands out for his plus speed, plus defense, and strong track record of hitting. Power hasn’t been a big part of his game, but he has recently added muscle onto his projectable 6’1” frame, and a 99 MPH exit velocity mark at a 2019 Perfect Game event is damn good. Armstrong is my favorite target in first year player drafts relative to consensus.” I’ve basically named him a target every 3 months since then, even ranking him within my Top 100 overall last off-season at #99. And in 2024, especially the 2nd half of 2024, we started to see the first buds of a breakout that could absolutely explode in 2025. He put up a 88.9/94.0 MPH AVG/FB EV on the season, which shows that power potential I saw 4 years ago wasn’t a mirage. And when it comes with a 17.2 degree launch, an elite 30.0 ft/sec sprint speed, and elite CF defense, you have the makings of an extremely exciting fantasy player. We saw that player in his final 65 games, slashing .267/.317/.457 with 9 homers, 11 steals, and a 21.8/6.9 K%/BB%. I ranked him 67th overall on the Top 75 Sneak Peek of the 2025 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon), but the reason why he isn’t ranked even higher is because he still does have some deficiencies in his game. His 70.6 MPH swing is below average, his 41.4% Chase% is extreme, and his 29.9% whiff% is well below average. That isn’t exactly my favorite trifecta of skills, but he’s still so young, I foresee all of those numbers improving. And focusing on what he doesn’t do well is silly when what he does do well is so insanely exciting. Put some respect on this man’s name. His name is Pete Crow Armstrong, not Pete Crow Armweak. – 2025 Projection: 82/18/71/.244/.312/.425/31 Prime Projection: 93/24/74/.259/.331/.446/44

Michael Busch – CHC, 1B, 27.4 – Busch is a mixed bag of things you really want to buy into, and things that make you hesitant to buy in too hard. On the positive side, his 11.2% Barrel%, 89.9/95.4 MPH AVG/FB EV, and 17.2 degree launch makes you think he can truly be a preeminent power hitter in this game. But those numbers only resulted in 21 homers in 152 games last year, and his expected homer totals were right in that area too, so he wasn’t really unlucky there. His below average 70.3 MPH swing it really the thing that makes me hesitant to start projecting perennial 30+ homer seasons. The true top power hitters in the game generally swing a much, much quicker bat, and while that bat speed doesn’t preclude him from hitting 30+, I think it does make mid 20 homer projections more reasonable moving forward, which would make him a good fantasy first baseman, but not a truly great one. And of course the most obvious downside is the swing and miss with a 28.6% K%, leading to a .248 BA and .217 xBA. I’m not expecting his BA to bottom out, but I think the risk is there. Add a star in OBP leagues as his plate approach is excellent with a 11.1% BB% and well above average 23.2% Chase%. 2025 Projection: 77/25/83/.244/.330/.458/2

Pitchers

Ben Brown – CHC, RHP, 25.7 – Brown is one of my top pitcher targets for 2025. I’ve been calling him a target for a few years now in that bucket of pitching prospect that I love to shop in (close to the majors, big stuff, upper minors production, moderate to little hype), and now that he’s proven it in the majors, he becomes a true 5 alarm target. And the best part is, even after he proved it in the majors, he’s still getting majorly underrated. He put up a 3.58 ERA with a 28.8/8.6 K%/BB% in 55.1 IP. A neck injury ended his season in June, but the expectation is for him to have a normal off-season. He throws gas with a 96.4 MPH fastball that was an above average pitch (although the underlying numbers weren’t as good). His curveball was amongst the very best in baseball with a 51% whiff% and .183 xwOBA. He performed better against righties than he did lefties, but even with just two pitches basically, he still put up an above average .304 wOBA vs lefties. He also threw a lesser used changeup, cutter, sinker and sweeper at Triple-A in 2023, so I don’t think he is locked in as a two pitch pitcher. The cutter in particular seems to have promise as a third pitch. Point being, even with two pitches I think he can be a high K, mid rotation starter, and if he can find that effective 3rd+ pitch, there could be an even higher level in here. He’s control over command, but it’s good to see the walk rate stay about average in his MLB debut. He might start the season in the bullpen depending on what Chicago does the rest of the off-season, but I don’t think Chicago has plans to ban him to the bullpen permanently. They used him as a starter last year and he was great, so it would make little sense for them not to give him a full shot in the rotation long term. I’m going after him. 2025 Projection: 8/3.79/1.23/150 in 130 IP

Shota Imanaga – CHC, LHP, 31.7 – It’s no secret that I enjoy a good victory lap like Wade Boggs on horseback taking a victory lap around Yankee Stadium after beating the Braves in the 1996 World Series. Like Boggs, I also eat chicken before I write every article, and I also drink 107 beers on a flight before going 2 for 3 with 2 doubles just hours later. Come to think of it, maybe that was CJ Abrams problem. Not that he partied until 8 am, but that he went 0 for 3 right after that. Dude, we all know that if you are going to be a rebel, you better produce. Maybe he did deserve that punishment after all ;). Now where was I? Oh yea, victory lapping. While I do believe in celebrating your hits, I also believe in taking the walk of shame for your misses, and finding lessons in who I consider to be my biggest miss, Shota Imanaga. I had Imanaga pegged as a good, but not great MLB pitcher, giving him a projection of 11/3.91/1.22/175 in 160 IP. He ended up going 15/2.91/1.02/174 in 173.1 IP. I believe where I went wrong was that I overrated fastball velocity, and while to my credit, the 91.7 MPH fastball actually didn’t miss that many bats (17.5% whiff%) or induce weak contact (91.2 MPH EV with .327 xwOBA), it was still a positive value pitch with a 52% usage rate, and it came with elite control, an elite secondary (splitter), a diverse pitch mix, and a history of ace production in the 2nd toughest league in the world. I shouldn’t have let a low 90’s fastball blind me to how good and established the rest of the profile was, and also to the fact that the fastball was still pretty good despite the low velocity. This wasn’t my only miss, but I believe that every other miss I had, my process was good and I don’t regret my take on them. Imanaga is the only one where I’m disappointed in my evaluation, and I will be taking those lessons with me headed into 2025, starting with properly ranking him for next season, which is in the near ace tier. – 2025 Projection: 13/3.28/1.06/182 in 175 IP

Bullpen

Porter Hodge – CHC, Closer, 24.1 – Hodge took over the closer job in late August and he ran with it, locking down 8 saves in his final 13 appearances. He was lights out when he got the call to the bigs in late May, putting up a 1.88 ERA with a 31.7/11.6 K%/BB% in 43 IP. The stuff is most certainly closer stuff with the best sweeper in baseball that put up a +11 Run Value (tied with Anthony Bender) with a 51.8% whiff%. The fastball sits 95.5 MPH and put up very good .298 xwOBA. Below average control is the only thing that can tank him, and while plenty of elite closers have below average control, there is still some risk there as we saw with Camilo Doval and Alexis Diaz last year. The Cubs might sign a vet to give Hodge competition, but as now, he’s the man, and he has the upside to be an impact fantasy closer. 2025 Projection: 4/3.41/1.18/77/29 saves in 63 IP

Chicago Cubs 2025 Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects Rankings

1) Matt Shaw – CHC, 3B/2B/SS, 23.4 – The little man discount never fails. Baseball scouts see a little man, and they immediately shave a few inches of projection right off the top. I don’t mind it, because it consistently creates excellent buying opportunities for the right players (see the Dynasty Strategy Section below for more thoughts on this), and Matt Shaw is definitely one of those right players. He went a little later than he should have in the real MLB Draft, then he went a little later than he should have in Dynasty First Year Player Drafts, and now he’s getting ranked a little later than he should be on prospect lists. He’s an elite prospect that gets ranked like a merely good one. He might only be 5’9”, but his bat packs a true punch, putting up an 89.3 MPH EV with a 14.6 degree launch in 35 games at Triple-A. He smoked 21 homers on the season in 121 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s not a pull machine, but a lot of these lift and pull machines put up some pretty low batting averages, and a profile like Shaw doesn’t need to only pull the ball. He can use his hard hit ability, plus speed (31 steals), and plus contact rates (18.2% K%) to do damage when he goes oppo. He also walks a ton with a 11.9% BB%, making him a likely top of the order bat. Don’t fall into the little man trap, Shaw is going to be a do everything fantasy terror when he gets his shot. I don’t know exactly how the chips are going to fall as to where he ends up on the diamond and when he gets his shot, but it will work itself out one way or the other. Shaw’s been a target for me from before his junior year of college, and he remains a target for me. 2025 Projection: 41/9/45/.256/.318/.419/12 Prime Projection: 96/23/83/.276/.348/.461/26

2) Kevin Alcantara – CHC, OF, 22.8 – The Forgotten Unicorn continues to fly just low enough under the radar to not have the hype explode, while continuing to perform very well and show off his truly special tools. He’s a still projectable 6’6”, 188 pounds with a double plus raw power/speed combo. He put up a 91 MPH EV at Triple-A with a 29.2 ft/sec sprint in the majors. And it’s not like he’s struggled in the minors at all, He’s actually been extremely good his entire career, never putting up a wRC+ under 123 at any stop other than when he was a 16 year old in rookie ball. This year he did it in the upper minors all season as a 21/22 year old, slashing .278/.353/.428 with 14 homers, 14 steals, and a 26.0/9.9 K%/BB% in 111 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. The cherry on top is that he’s a good CF, which could make a potent OF with PCA in center and Alcantara in a corner down the line. He’s not a finished product with hit tool risk and too many groundballs, but his hype should be so much higher than it is. Alcantara makes for a great upside target. 2025 Projection: 22/7/29/.229/.294/.407/6 Prime Projection: 79/23/78/.251/.328/.449/18

3) Cam Smith – CHC, 3B, 22.1 – Selected 14th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, the 6’3”, 224 pound Smith generates a tremendous amount of power with very little movement in his swing. It is quick, powerful and short to the ball. It is straight up one of the quietest swings from one of the biggest men I’ve ever seen. The swing is geared more for a line drive, all fields approach rather than pull and lift, which is why he didn’t put up the gaudy homer totals as some of his other college hitting brethren with only 16 homers in 66 games in the ACC. But he has the raw power to make that profile work, and the upside is that it can come with a high BA. We saw what this profile can look like at it’s best in his dominant pro debut, slashing .313/.396/.609 with 7 homers, 2 steals, and a 17.9/11.2 K%/BB% in 32 games split between Single-A, High-A, and Double-A. He put up a 122 wRC+ in 5 games at Double-A, so the profile was transferring to the upper minors, and he clearly had no problems ripping dingers to all fields with the wood bat. He very well might have the top hit/power combo in the FYPD class, and it’s why he ranked 7th overall (really 8th overall with Roki now in the top spot) in my End of Season 2025 Top 56 First Year Player Drafts Rankings (full Top 130 coming later this off-season). – 2025 Projection: 12/4/17/.247/.308/.412/1 Prime Projection: 84/24/89/.273/.340/.466/4

4) Cade Horton – CHC, RHP, 23.7 – Horton’s season ended after just 34.1 IP with a lat strain, and let’s hope that lat strain is what led to his terrible run at Triple-A. He put up a 7.50 ERA with a 27.2/13.6 K%/BB% in 18 IP. The fastball was down to 94.1 MPH. The good news is that the secondaries (changeup, curve, slider) still missed a ton of bats and induced weak contact, and he also pitched much better at Double-A with a 1.10 ERA and 29.0/3.2 K%/BB% in 16.1 IP. We can give him a pass for his performance at Triple-A due to the injury, but Tommy John surgery knocked out his entire 2021 season, so injuries are starting to become a concern. He’s never pitched more than 88.1 IP in a season, so it’s a question if he can truly put up a full starter’s workload year after year, and also what level of stuff he can hold over those innings. His value took a hit this year, but it would be too risk averse to completely tank his value. I’m holding relatively strong. 2025 Projection: 4/4.13/1.32/74 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.68/1.19/163 in 150 IP

5) Moises Ballesteros – CHC, C, 21.5 – Ballesteros is a below average defensive catcher which makes it unclear if he will end up sticking behind the plate. He’s only 21 years old, so maybe he’ll improve, and maybe Chicago will be fine with his below average defense because they are not strong at catcher in both the majors and the minors. Even if Ballesteros moves off catcher to 1B/DH, he definitely has the bat to clear that high bar. He posseses one of the best hit/power combos in the minors, slashing .289/.354/.471 with 19 homers, 1 steal, and a 18.3/8.9 K%/BB% in 124 games split between Double-A (154 wRC+) and Triple-A (106 wRC+). And keep in mind he did that as a 20 year old. He started to lift and pull the ball more at Triple-A, which spiked his K rate a bit, but we’ll take that tradeoff for more dingers. Lack of defensive value can certainly end up a real issue if his bat ends up more above average than great, but Chicago has every incentive for him to stick behind the plate, so I’m leaning he gets a real shot there. He ranked 15th overall on the 2025 Deep Dynasty Baseball Positional Rankings: Top 78 Catchers (Patreon). – 2025 Projection: 33/9/39/.258/.307/.420/1 Prime Projection: 73/24/84/.275/.332/.457/2

6) Owen Caissie – CHC, OF, 22.9 – Caissie is a super easy evaluation as a low BA, high OBP slugger, but he really doesn’t hit as many homers as you would think with 19 homers in 127 games at Triple-A. His 33.4% FB% is on the low side for a slugger, which is what is holding down the homer totals. It’s helping his BA, hitting .278, but with a 28.4% K% (which is a career best), he’s not going to hit for a high BA in the majors regardless. There could be a scenario where the strikeout rate is hovering around 30% in the majors with a launch that really isn’t all that high, which could result is some pretty mediocre numbers. I mainly bring this up because it’s the most interesting thing about projecting his future value, but when you pan out for the big picture, he’s a powerful and athletic 6’3”, 190 pounds with current plus power and possibly more coming down the line. He’ll also chip in with steals, nabbing 11 bags. And add two stars in OBP leagues with a 12.9% BB%. I don’t want to lose the forest through the trees by slicing and dicing the numbers too much, so I’m still projecting his as a low BA, high OBP slugger no matter how you slice it. There is a short term logjam for playing time, but long term I don’t see many roadblocks. 2025 Projection: 19/6/25/.227/.303/.420/2 Prime Projection: 78/28/91/.246/.335/.480/7

7) James Triantos – CHC, 2B, 22.2 – Triantos ran a ton in 2024, stealing 47 bags in 115 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. I’m leading with that because it gives his profile an upside boost which he needed for fantasy. The contact rates have consistently ranged from plus to elite throughout his minor league career, putting up an 11.1 K% this season, but both the game power and raw power are well below average. He put up a 85.9 MPH EV at Triple-A with a 2 degree launch. He doesn’t walk much with a 5.6% BB%, which isn’t great for his chances to hit at the top of the lineup, and he’s not really an asset on defense as a solid 2B. The hit/speed combo is certainly good enough to make him a good fantasy prospect, but lack of impact, OBP and defense keeps him as more of a Top 150 prospect for me. 2025 Projection: 19/2/11/.260/.303/.365/7 Prime Projection: 81/11/52/.282/.328/.408/26

8) Alexander Canario – CHC, OF, 24.11 – I was always visually amazed when watching Canario swing, writing, “he swings the bat like it’s a bazooka with an extreme all or nothing approach,” in last year’s Top 1,000 writeup, and now with bat speed tracking, we saw Canario put up an eye poppingly elite 78 MPH swing. It was in a small sample (40 swings), but that was 4th best in all of baseball. My eyes certainly weren’t deceiving me, and it’s what keeps Canario interesting to me for fantasy. He’s going to rip dingers if he gets playing time, like he did at Triple-A with 18 homers and a 16.8% Barrel% in 64 games. He also keeps producing in the majors in small samples (despite an extremely high K%) with a 148 wRC+ in 17 PA in 2023 and a 128 wRC+ in 28 PA in 2024. The swing is on the long side and he strikes out a ton (30.4% K% at Triple-A), so the batting average is a major risk, and it may prevent him from ever really truly locking down a full time job, but that power upside is big enough to crack this list. 2025 Projection: 28/10/37/.223/.301/.438/2 Prime Projection: 64/25/78/.235/.314/.469/6

9) Jefferson Rojas – CHC, SS, 19.11 – I was a bit lower on Rojas than consensus last off-season, because I just didn’t see big enough tools to get really excited about him for fantasy, and that played out in 2024 with a mediocre season. He hit 6 homers with 21 steals (in 29 attempts) and a 88 wRC+ in 96 games at High-A. We have to grade on a curve because he was young for the level, and the 15.3% K% was excellent, so it’s not like it was a terrible year or anything, it just displayed that he’s a better real life prospect than a fantasy one. He can play SS and he gets the ball on the ball, which gives him a very high floor, but the power/speed combo projects to be moderate at best. He’s a solid fantasy prospect, but not a truly coveted one at the moment. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 78/17/71/.273/.326/.421/15

10) Jonathon Long – CHI, 1B, 23.2 – I’m a hawk for great pro debuts coming right out of the draft, and Long’s great pro debut in 2023 certainly got my attention. Despite getting picked 266th overall as a college bat (he signed for slot value, so there were no complicating signing bonus factors), I messed around and placed Long on my Top 1,000 Rankings, writing in part, “Long makes for an interesting late round target in deeper leagues … He has a very quick and powerful swing that looks relatively legit to me, and he hits the ball hard. Obviously don’t expect a league winner, but I think he’s a real prospect.” He then went out and proved in 2024 that he is most certainly a legit prospect, to say the least. He slashed .340/.455/.528 with 7 homers and a 16.5/17.5 K%/BB% in 46 games after getting the call to Double-A. He then went to the AFL and obliterated the league with a 1.088 OPS and 6 homers in 18 games. He’s still a mostly 1B prospect (he can play some 3B too) whose reasonable projection is more of a good bat than a great one, so he’s still more of a deeper league guy, but he most certainly backed up that great pro debut. He’s a close to the majors bat who can make a fantasy impact if he can work his way into the lineup. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 68/20/76/.257/.326/.441/1

11) Brandon Birdsell – CHC, RHP, 25.0 – Birdsell is certainly in the bucket of pitching prospect I like to shop in that I talked about in the Ben Brown blurb, but his profile reminds me a bit of Adam Mazur’s, who burned me this season, so I’m going to stay restrained in my expectations for Birdsell. Like Mazur, he has plus control of a 95 MPH fastball that doesn’t have a great movement profile, although Birdsell’s fastball missed considerably more bats at Triple-A than Mazur’s did. And like Mazur he has an above average slider as his best secondary to go along with a starter’s pitch mix. It all resulted in a 3.91 ERA with a 23.5/5.4 K%/BB% in 135.2 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A. Like Mazur, I’m leaning towards more of a #4 starter as a reasonable upside projection for Birdsell. The deeper the league, the more value he has. 2025 Projection: 2/4.36/1.34/56 in 70 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.07/1.25/138 in 150 IP

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Jumping off from the Matt Shaw blurb, the little man discount has been one of the most profitable discounts over the years in Dynasty Baseball. I get it, because when you are watching a prospect, the ones who are massive human beings with insane tools are so very easy to identify and drool over. And I sure as hell love those unicorns as well (see my Kevin Alcantara blurb), but that doesn’t mean you should discount the truly electric little guys. Sure, if the EV data doesn’t back them up, discount away, but when the EV data does back them up, there is no reason to be so skeptical. Little man Corbin Carroll (5’10”) was my 3rd ranked FYPD prospect in his draft year because his EV data was impressive, and he still dropped to 16th overall in the draft (Shaw dropped to 13th overall). I remember when Carson Cistulli, formerly of Fangraphs, was extolling the virtues of the 5’9” Mookie Betts from before I was writing when nobody else was. The 5’9” Jose Ramirez was a target of mine when I was just playing the game of dynasty, not writing yet, and sure I didn’t keep him after his lackluster 2015 season, missing out the beginning of his breakout in 2016, but clearly I was onto something. And no, throwing Ramirez back into the player pool before his breakout definitely doesn’t still eat at me almost 10 years later. Definitely not ;). Back to current day, Jett Williams is another worthy little man discount pick, as is Slade Caldwell in this year’s first year player draft. It’s the gift that keeps on giving, and until the right little men start getting valued correctly, I’ll keep on scooping those little cuties up at that discounted price.

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon (free ones listed in parenthesis)

Atlanta Braves—Baltimore Orioles—Cincinnati Reds–Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Detroit Tigers—Los Angeles Angels—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers (free)—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—Oakland Athletics—Philadelphia Phillies—Pittsburgh Pirates—San Diego Padres—Tampa Bay Rays—Washington Nationals (free)

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 75 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2025 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2024 TOP 322 PROSPECTS RANKS
-END OF SEASON 2024 438 DYNASTY RANKS
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS with full scouting reports and prime projections (a Top 100+ is coming later this off-season)
-2025 DEEP DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 Catchers
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: END OF SEASON MAILBAG!
-SPREADSHEETS
-OFF-SEASON CONTENT! – Dynasty Team Reports (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk) , Deep Positional Rankings, Predicting Future Prospect Lists, Fall/Winter League Updates, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks, Top 500+ Prospects Ranks, Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks & so much more!

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Chicago Cubs 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I like to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team, and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Chicago Cubs 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 137 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: TOP 78 C
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100+ COMING LATER IN THE OFF-SEASON)
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Baltimore Orioles (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

Hitters

Cody Bellinger FRA, OF/1B, 28.9 – Bellinger massively improved his contact rates with a career best 15.6% K% (27.3% in 2022) and career best 20.1% whiff% (27.2% in 2022). It led to a major bounce back season, slashing .307/.356/.525 with 26 homers, 20 steals, and a 15.6%/7.2% K%/BB% in 130 games. It wasn’t only the improved contact rates, he should also thank MLB for the juicier balls as his lowly 91 MPH FB/LD EV with a 17.2 degree launch likely wouldn’t have gotten the job done in 2022 with the dead balls. His 20 steals were a career high (thank you new rules) and his .319 BABIP was a career high (thank you no shift). Was Bellinger on the rules committee this off-season? He was certainly on the lucky side with a .370 wOBA vs. .331 xwOBA, but as long as the ball (see strategy section below) and rules stay the same, his contact/speed/lift profile should provide very nice fantasy numbers. 2024 Projection: 84/28/91/.268/.327/.470/17

Christopher Morel CHC, OF, 24.10 – I was hyping up Morel in these here Imaginary pages at this time last year, ranking him 189th on the 2023 Top 1,000, and while you are still probably unsure what to think of him one year later, you have to be relatively satisfied at what he provided your fantasy team considering his very reasonable cost. He jacked 26 homers with 6 steals and a .247 BA in 107 games. It was good for a 119 wRC+ and a full-season pace of about 35+ homers and 10 steals. He absolutely pummeled the ball with a 92.1/97.1 MPH AVG/FB EV, he has plus speed with a 28.6 ft/sec sprint (although he didn’t run as much as I thought he would), and he has average walk rates with a 8.4% BB%. But the reason we are still unsure of him, is because he didn’t improve enough on his two biggest weaknesses, contact and defense. He still had a cover your eyes 37% whiff% with a 31% K%, and he was a terrible defender with a negative 12.9 Fangraphs defensive value. Chicago announced they were going to try him at 1B this off-season, but at this point, DH is his most likely “position.” I still love the fantasy upside, and am encouraged that he managed a solid 22% K% to close out the season in September, but mostly because of the playing time concerns, I have to admit I’m not quite as high on him this off-season as I was last off-season. The moves Chicago makes this off-season could swing his playing time projections in either direction. 2024 Projection: 68/25/76/.241/.316/.478/10

Pitchers

Justin Steele CHC, LHP, 28.9 – Steele worries me a little. He’s a two pitch pitcher and neither pitch is really dominant. The fastball sits only 91.8 MPH and it put up a solid but unspectacular .326 xwOBA and 20.3% whiff%. The slider put up a pretty mediocre 31.1% whiff%, and while it induced weak contact with a 86.6 MPH EV against, I prefer my sliders to miss bats. His control took a monster step forward with a 5% BB%, but he’s never shown that level of control in the past, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see that regress a bit in 2024. His ERA was also much better in the 1st half (2.56) than the 2nd half (3.62). I say all of this just to add some caution, because not only do I still like him, I was actually lightly touting him last off-season, writing in his Top 1,000 blurb, “Steele’s the type you put a star next to their name as you start to fill out of the back half of your fantasy rotation.” He induces weak contact, he keeps the ball in the ballpark, he has about average whiff rates, and his control took a big step forward. He’s a good pitcher, just don’t be surprised if he ends up more above average than truly standout in 2024. 2024 Projection: 13/3.62/1.21/175 in 170 IP

Jordan Wicks CHC, LHP, 24.7 – This section is usually reserved for non prospects, but because Wicks didn’t crack the Top 10 and he’s one of Chicago’s most interesting pitchers, I decided to break the rules and include him here. I’m a rebel that can’t be tamed. Wicks is the type of safety over upside prospect that is more valuable in deeper leagues, but it’s not like there are no skills to get excited about. He understands the art of pitching with a 6 pitch mix, he has a legitimate plus offering in his changeup, and he keeps the ball on the ground with 3 of his pitches generating negative launch angles (sinker, cutter, curve). He had a 3.55 ERA with a 26.5%/8.6% K%/BB% in 91.1 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A, and then he held his own in the majors with a 4.41 ERA (4.18 xERA) and 16.3%/7.5% K%/BB% in 34.2 IP.  It’s likely #4 starter upside with only 92.1 MPH heat and average control, but he’s worth a spot in the back of your fantasy rotation even in shallower leagues. 2024 Projection: 9/4.22/1.31/136 in 150 IP

Bullpen

Adbert Alzolay CHC, Closer, 29.1 – Alzolay took over Chicago’s closer job in mid June and he never gave it back. He put up a 2.67 ERA with a 26.5%/5.1% K%/BB% and 22 saves in 64 IP on the season. He leads with the plus slider which he threw 45.1% of the time and put up a 40.6% whiff% on the pitch. He backs that up with 3 different fastballs (95.3 MPH 4-seamer, 95.3 MPH sinker, 91.1 MPH cutter). He got shut down for 3 weeks in September with a forearm injury, but he returned for one outing on September 29th and his velocity was fine, so I wouldn’t be concerned. The modest strikeout rate has him sitting in the 3rd tier of closers (there are so many stud closers), but his elite control should mitigate that with a strong WHIP, and there is potentially more K’s in the tank. 2024 Projection: 3/3.36/1.09/71/30 saves in 65 IP

Chicago Cubs Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 22.0 – I’ve been all in on Pete Crow since before he was drafted, and he finally fulfilled his elite prospect destiny in 2023. The power took yet another step forward with him jacking 20 homers in 107 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s not an EV masher, but he doesn’t hit the ball weakly either, and his high launch will ensure he gets the most out of his still growing raw power. The CF defense and speed are elite with a 29.9 ft/sec sprint speed and 37 steals. There is bit more swing and miss than optimal with a 26% K%, but he’s always generally had a good feel to hit, and he’s never had low BA’s in the minors, so I’m not overly concerned about it. Armstrong has 20/40 written all over him. 2024 Projection: 49/11/36/.241/.310/.407/23 Prime Projection: 91/22/76/.257/.334/.439/34

2) Matt Shaw CHC, 2B/SS, 22.5 – Selected 13th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Shaw is only 5’11”, but he’s a thick dude who has real power, and he combines that with above average speed and excellent base stealing skills. He has that little man leg kick (which Chicago toned down a hair in pro ball) that I absolutely love in the mold of a Alex Bregman, Spencer Steer, and Zach Neto. It seems to be working for these slightly undersized guys, and it’s certainly working for Shaw. He smashed 24 homers with 18 steals and a 1.142 OPS in 62 Big Ten games. He also impressed in the wood bat Cape Cod League with 5 homers, 21 steals, and a 1.006 OPS in 36 games. He then ran through pro ball like it was nothing, finishing the year at Double-A slashing .292/.329/.523 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 17.1%/4.3% K%/BB% in 15 games at the level. Shaw was my top draft target pre-draft (I actually pointed out Shaw as my top target back in February before the season even started), but now that he absolutely blew up in pro ball, there is no chance you get a great value on him. He’s worth his very high draft price though. 2024 Projection: 36/10/43/.253/.312/.432/11 Prime Projection: 85/25/89/.271/.337/.469/21

3) Cade Horton CHC, RHP, 22.7 – Horton was a star quarterback in high school, and his pithing delivery very much looks like he’s throwing a football with a short arm action thrown from around his ear. That type of arm action tends to produce good spin rates, and Horton can mostly certainly spin a potentially double slider that falls completely off the table. The plus fastball has good movement too and sits mid 90’s. He also mixes in a changeup and curveball that have above average potential. He used that plus stuff to obliterate pro ball in his debut with a 2.65 ERA and 33.5%/7.7% K%/BB% in 88.1 IP split between 3 levels (A, A+, AA). The K/BB numbers dropped a bit when he got to Double-A with a 28.4%/10.1% K%/BB% in 27 IP, but he still crushed the level with a 1.33 ERA. He only averaged around 4 inning outings and Chicago was very careful with him in general as this was truly his first fully healthy season coming off Tommy John surgery in 2021. He still has to prove he can handle a full MLB starter’s workload while maintaining his stuff and staying healthy, but he’s on the right track to doing that. I would put high end #2 starter upside on him. 2024 Projection: 2/3.95/1.31/42 in 40 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.48/1.17/178 in 160 IP

4) Kevin Alcantara CHC, OF, 21.8 – If you want to invest in one of those unicorn baseball talents in the mold of a Elly De La Cruz and James Wood, but don’t want to pay unicorn prices, Alcantara is the guy for you. He’s an elite athlete at 6’6”, 188 pounds with a plus power/speed combo and blink of an eye bat speed. He scuffled to start the season with a .604 OPS in his first 35 games, but he was en fuego after that, slashing .329/.401/.549 with 11 homers, 5 steals, and a 23.9%/10.7% K%/BB% in his final 71 games at mostly High-A. He closed out the regular season at Double-A where he put up a 130 wRC+ in 5 games, and then went to the AFL where he put up a .865 OPS in 21 games. The hit tool and plate approach still need continued refinement, but prospect rankers seem far too hesitant on shooting such a uniquely talented player up rankings. He should be in unanimous near elite prospect range, and he mostly sits in good but not great prospect range. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 80/26/85/.257/.333/.467/16

5) Owen Caissie CHC, OF, 21.9 – Chicago continued to be aggressive with Caissie’s assignments, sending the 20 year old to Double-A, which usually tells you what an organization thinks about a player. They love Caissie, and he rewarded their love with a monster season. He stared the Southern League pre-tacked ball in the eye and didn’t blink with a 144 wRC+, .918 OPS, and 22 homers in 120 games. Well, maybe he blinked, as the 33.9% K% in the 1st half was much higher than his 27.7% K% in the 2nd half. It got all the way down to 21.7% in his final 21 games, and considering how young he was for the level, I wouldn’t be extra concerned about his hit tool any more than your average high walk rate (14.4% K%), low BA slugger. The raw power is monstrous and he’s a relatively good athlete too. He’s one of the premier power hitting prospects in baseball. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 82/31/92/.248/.339/.492/5

6) Ben Brown CHC, RHP, 24.7 – If you can buy low on Brown’s 5.33 ERA and 15.8% BB% in 72.2 IP at Triple-A I would be all over it. He had a 7.8% BB% in 20 IP at Double-A to start the year, and he had a 9.5% BB% at Double-A last year, so the Triple-A automated strike zone made his merely below average control look cartoonishly bad. He has legitimate top of the rotation stuff with 3 potentially plus pitches (mid 90’s fastball, curveball, slider) and all of them can look pretty damn similar until they get about halfway to the plate. He’s a nightmare to face at 6’6”, 210 pounds and it resulted in a 32.6% K% on the season in 92.2 IP. He missed all of August with a lat injury, and he pitched out of the bullpen when he returned in September, which does hint at some bullpen risk, but I’m looking at Chicago’s rotation, and they would be silly to not give this stud every chance to stick in the rotation. I really, really like Brown. 2024 Projection: 4/4.18/1.35/83 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.82/1.27/175 in 150 IP

7) Moises Ballesteros CHC, C, 20.4 – Here is what I wrote about Bellesteros, in part, on my 2023 Top 1,000, “Most of the 2022 catcher breakouts are getting the full hype treatment, but Ballesteros is just chillin in corner waiting to get his fair due … The other catcher breakouts overshadowing Ballesteros’ impressive season creates a buying opportunity, making him one of my top prospect catcher targets for 2023.” … I would call Ballesteros’ great 2023 season a breakout, but he already broke out in 2022, so all the hype on him this year is just other people starting to notice. He destroyed the age appropriate Single-A with a 142 wRC+ and then went to High-A and put up a 128 wRC+. He did it on the back of a plus plate approach (15.8%/12.8% K%/BB%) and above average power (14 homers). The profile might be a tad better for real life than fantasy, and he’s starting to get valued correctly, but I’m still in on Ballesteros at his fair value. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 69/22/73/.271/.342/.440/2

8) Alexander Canario CHC, OF, 23.11 – Canario returned from ankle and shoulder surgeries in mid June, and by the time he got back to Triple-A he looked mostly like himself, slashing .276/.342/.524 with 8 homers and a 28%/9.3% K%/BB% in 36 games. He swings the bat like it’s a bazooka with an extreme all or nothing approach, so he’ll easily pop 30+ homers if the hit tool doesn’t completely tank him, and it took him only 17 PA to hit his first major league grand slam. The part that didn’t come back was his speed with only 2 steals and 25.8 ft/sec sprint speed in his MLB debut, albeit in such a small sample I wouldn’t give it too much weight, and he was also just coming back from two major surgeries. He’ll have to earn his playing time every step of the way, and the hit tool is in the major danger zone, but his explosive power is worth taking a shot on. 2024 Projection: 22/8/29/.221/.292/.423/2 Prime Projection: 66/28/79/.237/.312/.466/7

9) Jackson Ferris CHC, LHP, 20.3 – Ferris is a big, slinging lefty at 6’4”, 195 pound lefty with a plus mid 90’s fastball that absolutely explodes out of his hand. He combines the heat with a two potentially plus breakers (slider, curve), and a lesser used, developing changeup. He dominated Single-A hitters with a 3.38 ERA and 32.5% K% in 56 IP, and while he did it in mostly short outings, he was up to 5 IP a couple times towards the end of the season. Along with staying healthy and building up innings, the biggest issue will be his control. He had a 13.9% BB% and he doesn’t exactly have the most repeatable delivery. There is elite pitching prospect upside with control gains and continued refinement, but there is also bullpen risk. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 11/3.77/1.32/185 in 160 IP

10) Jefferson Rojas CHC, 2B/SS, 18.11 – If Triantos was a better defensive player, he would have likely taken this 10th spot, but having a player take up a roster spot on your fantasy team for a few years while they slowly work their way into more playing time can be a pain in the ass. And I’m not sure Triantos’ upside is worth the defensive risk. Enter Jefferson Rojas. Rojas was a barely 18 year old in full season ball and he more than held his own, slashing .268/.345/.404 with 7 homers, 13 steals, and a 19.9%/7.5% K%/BB% in 70 games at Single-A. His tools don’t necessarily jump out at you at 5’10”, but he’s the type to do everything pretty well on a baseball field (hit, power, speed, defense, arm). Taking into account his excellent age to level production (119 wRC+), you can probably tack on a tick more upside to project out a potentially above average across the board player. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 83/21/76/.276/.338/.441/15

Just Missed

11) James Triantos CHC, 2B, 21.2

12) Jordan Wicks CHC, LHP, 24.7 – See above

13) Matt Mervis CHC, 1B, 26.0

14) Brennen Davis CHC, OF, 24.5

15) Haydn McGeary CHC, 1B, 24.6

16) Michael Arias CHC, RHP, 22.5

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Jumping off from the Bellinger blurb, MLB changes the baseball every damn year, and I’m not even 100% sure they are truly in complete control of every change, as my understanding is that they manufacture new balls for every season. The juicier 2023 ball allowed mediocre exit velocity bats to come alive and be impact MLB hitters, but those type of hitters hold more risk coming into 2024 because we can’t be sure how the ball will play until we actually see it. The 2022 ball killed those guys. Big EV hitters are much more ball proof than low EV hitters. Everybody seemed to love the way the game was played in 2023, fans and baseball executives alike, so I don’t see why they would intentionally change the juiciness of the ball (I know they have experimented with tackier balls too, which is an entirely other discussion), but I’m not sure how it can’t be in the back of our minds while valuing players for next season.

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Baltimore Orioles (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

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-A TOP 137 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
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-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100+ COMING LATER IN THE OFF-SEASON)
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
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Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Chicago Cubs 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Chicago Cubs 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

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-TOP 43 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100 COMING LATER IN THE OFF-SEASON)
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-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: TOP 68 C//TOP 95 1B//Top 105 2B
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

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Hitters

Christopher Morel CHC, OF, 23.9 – Morel still has his lack of prospect love baked into his price, because if he got the hype he deserved, you wouldn’t be able to get him at such a good price this off-season. He destroyed Triple-A with a 147 wRC+ in 28 games and then smacked up MLB pitching with a 13.4% Barrel% and 89.6/95.6 MPH AVG/FB EV. Not many 22/23 year old rookies step into the majors and hit the ball that hard. He’s also very fast with a 28.8 ft/sec sprint speed. The skills are there for Morel to be a household name. A legit star. The hit tool is the one thing that could hold him back with a 32.2% K% and 38.3% whiff%, but his 28.6% Chase% is actually league average and he never had strikeout issues to this level in the minors. I’m betting on the K’s coming down, allowing the power/speed combo to shine. He fell off in the 2nd half of the season, but he had a 93.6 MPH EV in September, so I’m not too concerned. He’s a high upside, semi-proven youngster who should be impossible to acquire. Love him as a target. 2023 Projection: 77/23/79/.247/.320/.441/14

Seiya Suzuki CHC, OF, 28.8 – I projected Suzuki for a .264 BA and .336 OBP last off-season in the 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings, and he ended up hitting .262 with a .336 OBP. Not too bad if I don’t say so myself. I was a little too heavy on the power (.463 projected SLG vs. .433 actual SLG), but taking into account the dead ball, that was probably pretty close too. I wrote in the 2022 Top 1,000, “I’m not expecting him to step into the majors and be a star, but he looks like a great bet to be a damn good overall hitter,” and that is more or less exactly how it played out with a 116 wRC+. Now that he was a full year under his belt to get acclimated, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take a step forward in 2023. 2023 Projection: 81/23/74/.267/.339/.451/11

Nico Hoerner CHC, 2B/SS, 25.11 – I want to like Hoerner more, but I’m struggling to get over the poor 87.2/89.8 MPH AVG/FB EV which led to a below average .301 xwOBA and terrible 2.6% Barrel%. He also had a below average walk rate (5.4% BB%) and Chase% (33.7%). He’s a plus contact guy (11% K%) with plus speed (29.1 ft/sec sprint), so while crushing the ball isn’t necessarily his game, I think there’s a chance the bottom falls out offensively. It doesn’t worry me enough to stay away from him, but he’s not someone I am going to make sure I get. There are other lower cost speed options who I like the value on more. 2023 Projection: 76/10/62/.275/.324/.406/18

Starting Pitchers

Justin Steele CHC, LHP, 27.9 – Steele’s the type you put a star next to their name as you start to fill out of the back half of your fantasy rotation. He induces weak contact (87.1 MPH EV), keeps the ball on the ground (51.2% GB%), and misses bats (24.6% K%). That’s a great combo of skills. It led to a 3.18 ERA and 126 K’s in 119 IP. The one snafu is his control, putting up a 9.8% BB% and 1.35 WHIP, but even without control improvements that 1.35 WHIP feels high to me. He mostly went to this fastball/slider combo in 2022, but he has a 5 pitch mix and the curve and change performed very well in small doses. The overriding point is there are a few avenues of improvement, whether it be pitch mix changes and/or refining his control. I’m not going to stick my neck out for him, but I would be happy to roster Steele in leagues of all sizes in 2023. 2023 Projection: 9/3.66/1.27/157 in 150 IP

Bullpen

Brandon Hughes CHC, Closer Committee, 27.4 – There is a long off-season to go, but it doesn’t seem like a bad bet that Hughes will be able to get through it with at least a share of the closer job. His slider put up elite level whiffs with a 49.1% whiff% and it led to a 3.12 ERA with 68 K’s in 57.2 IP in his rookie year. He was untouchable in the minors with a 1.96 ERA and 124/34 K/BB in 91.2 IP from 2021-22). His 9.2% BB% isn’t great, and he’s not a flame thrower with a 93.2 MPH fastball, but he doesn’t have a ton of experience pitching, which leads me to believe there could be more room to grow than a typical 27 year old. If you wait on saves, Hughes is looking mighty juicy right now. 2023 Projection: 4/3.52/1.17/77/22 saves in 63 IP

Top 10 Chicago Cubs Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 21.0 – Armstrong had the power breakout I predicted in my Predicting the 2023 Top 50 Dynasty Baseball Prospects from last off-season, writing, “Armstrong will not only pick up where he left off before he underwent shoulder surgery, he will show power potential many people doubt he has.” He ended up jacking 16 homers in 101 games split between Single-A and High-A. His speed wasn’t undersold either as he nabbed 32 bases. His plus CF defense will get him on the field, he has a good feel to hit, plus speed, and developing power. That is a beautiful fantasy profile. He’s not a finished product as his plate approach took a step back at the more age appropriate High-A with a mediocre 24%/4.9% K%/BB% in 63 games, but he could explode to elite prospect status if he performs in the upper minors in 2023. There is still a small buy window. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 88/18/66/.273/.335/.431/26

2) Matt Mervis CHC, 1B, 25.0 – The Marvelous Mr. Mervis set the baseball world on fire with his AFL performance, smashing 6 homers with a .914 OPS in 17 games, but being brutally honest, the .262 BA and .324 OBP isn’t super impressive for a 24 year old who was almost 2 years older than the average player. It’s also an extreme offensive environment. I always caution against putting too much stock into the AFL numbers, but in Mervis’ case, it wasn’t just the AFL, he ripped up the upper minors too, slashing .309/.379/.606 with 36 homers and a 18.5%/8.7% K%/BB% in 137 games split between 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA). There is some platoon risk as he hits righties much better than lefties, and this was definitely the best year of his career by far with massive gains to both his power and contact, so there is some “career year” type risk here too. Chicago’s 1B job is wide open, but they have been rumored to be in the 1B market, so his path to playing time might not end up as clear as it’s looking right now. 2023 Projection: 59/20/66/.252/.317/.458/1 Prime Projection: 77/29/89/.264/.329/.482/2

3) Brennen Davis CHC, OF, 23.5 – 2022 was the first speed bump in Davis’ career, and you can’t completely jump ship at the very first sign of struggle with a prospect as talented as Davis. You have to give him a chance to overcome adversity. He underwent back surgery and struggled at Triple-A both before and after the injury with a 77 wRC+ in 44 games at Triple-A. He played in the AFL where he teased his huge potential with a 1.048 OPS in 5 games, but was then shutdown with “general soreness” which they claim is unrelated to the back injury. No two ways about it, it was a disaster year, but years like this happen in baseball. He’s still an elite athlete at 6’4”, 210 pounds. I would be surprised if he didn’t come back with a big year in 2023. 2023 Projection: 29/9/33/.229/.304/.430/4 Prime Projection: 79/27/82/.253/.332/.470/8

4) Kevin Alcantara CHC, OF, 20.9 – Alcantara didn’t have the huge statistical breakout, but he still hit damn well, slashing .273/.360/.451 with 15 homers, 14 steals, and a 24.8%/11.1% K%/BB% in 112 games at Single-A. He’s a physical specimen at 6’6”, 188 pounds and is an excellent athlete, playing mostly in CF. He’s extremely easy to dream on with upside for days. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/26/81/.250/.327/.466/11

5) Hayden Wesneski CHC, RHP, 25.4 – Wesneski impressed in his MLB debut with a pitching line of 2.18/0.94/33/7 in 33 IP. He did it on the back of near elite control (5.3% BB%) and weak contact (84.5 MPH EV against). I’m still staying a bit hesitant because he didn’t show this level of control or production at Triple-A with a 3.92 ERA and 106/33 K/BB in 110.1 IP, and his stuff isn’t exactly overpowering with a 93.1 MPH fastball and a slider that put up a decent, but not elite 33.3% whiff%. He throws a 5 pitch mix and he understands the art of the pitching, so I think he’ll be a solid MLB starter, but I’m not sure he’s going to be a fantasy difference maker. 2023 Projection: 8/4.15/1.28/136 in 145 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.86/1.22/171 in 170 IP

6) Alexander Canario CHC, OF, 22.11 – Canario has one of the most visually explosive swings in the minors. If a bazooka played baseball, it would swing like Canario. He demolished 37 homers in 125 games split across 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA). He has speed too with 23 steals. It’s the hit tool that is the issue. He had a 27.5% K% overall, and his BA tanked to .248 at Double-A, .231 at Triple-A, and .172 in the Dominican Winter League. Speaking of the Dominican Winter League, he suffered a serious injury on the bases which required surgery for a broken ankle and dislocated shoulder. His availability for the start of 2023 is in question. When healthy, I have no doubt he’ll do damage against any level of pitcher, but it just might come with a batting average that flirts with the Mendoza line. 2023 Projection: 28/10/33/.219/.297/.431/5 Prime Projection: 71/27/79/.232/.314/.458/10

7) Cade Horton CHC, RHP, 21.7 – Selected 7th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Horton underwent Tommy John surgery in February 2021, so he was just rounding into form during the 2nd half of 2022, resulting in him peaking during the College World Series with dominant outing after dominant outing. Plus mid 90’s heat with an at least plus slider is his game, and that combo gives him high upside with the floor of a high leverage reliever. He also throws a curve and change, and he hasn’t shown any major control issues in the short time he’s pitched in college (53.2 IP in his college career all coming this year). Chicago is clearly taking advantage of the lack of track record and betting on the upside. It’s your call if you want to do the same. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/3.82/1.27/180 in 163 IP

8) James Triantos CHC, 3B, 20.2 – Triantos has a short and quick righty swing that is made for contact. He had a 16.1%/7.7% K%/BB% with a .272 BA in 113 games at Single-A. The power just isn’t here yet with only 7 homers and a .386 slugging, and quite frankly, he’s already pretty thick. I’m sure he will add more power considering he’s barely 20 years old, but he’s definitely a hit tool first player. He’s not a burner, but he does have some speed, nabbing 20 bags in 23 attempts. It’s not my favorite profile to go after in fantasy, but he’s a safe prospect with solid across the board potential. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 84/18/66/.281/.342/.429/11

9) Owen Caissie CHC, OF, 20.9 – Caissie didn’t have a huge statistical season with a 113 wRC+ and 11 homers in 105 games, but taking into account Chicago gave him an aggressive assignment to High-A as a 19 year old, it’s not bad at all. He’s the same age as Kevin Alcantara who they sent to Single-A for comparison. Caissie’s 6’4”, 190 pounds with a smooth lefty swing that is a geared for both power and average, but he’ll have to cut down on the K’s to maximize both with a 28.6% K%. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 74/25/78/.248/.332/.452/4

10) Moises Ballesteros CHC, C, 19.5 – Most of the 2022 catcher breakouts are getting the full hype treatment, but Ballesteros is just chillin in corner waiting to get his fair due. Ballesteros is built like a slightly taller, lefty swinging version of Alejandro Kirk, and his profile isn’t that far off from Kirk’s, except the hit tool isn’t quite on that level. He was a former high priced international signing who handled his business in 2021 in the DSL with a 128 wRC+ and 12.8%/16.6% K%/BB% in 48 games. He debuted in stateside rookie ball in 2022 with added power, jacking 7 homers in 32 games, while proving the plus plate approach is for real with a 17.3%/11.8% K%/BB%. He put the cherry on top of his season by making his full season debut and putting up a 109 wRC+ with a 21.7%/14% K%/BB% in 31 games as an 18 year old. The other catcher breakouts overshadowing Ballesteros’ impressive season creates a buying opportunity, making him one of my top prospect catcher targets for 2023. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 69/23/76/.270/.342/.462/1

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

With the signings of Koudai Senga to the Mets for 5 years, $75 million and Masataka Yoshida to the Red Sox for 5 years, $90 million, the question turns to when to jump on these guys in First Year Players Drafts. Well, I would argue the question should be if these guys should be included in off-season prospect drafts to begin with. They will be 30 and 29 years old this season. They should really be included in the MLB draft/auction. Including them in a prospect draft completely defeats the purpose of having a separate prospect draft, which is that you aren’t forced to choose between solid MLB vets and high upside teenagers. But I know these guys will be included in prospect drafts in most leagues, so let’s get down to business. In general, my strategy in First Year Player Drafts and off-season prospects drafts is to strike gold on the next Julio/Acuna/Soto etc … This is your chance to hit on future superstars or future top 5 prospects who you can trade for current superstars. It’s not really the place to go after a mid rotation starter (Senga) or a solid OF bat (Yoshida). You can get that type of production in the MLB draft/auction. In very deep leagues where there might literally be nothing on the waiver wire, I can see taking either Senga or Yoshida as high as 3rd overall. Zero chance I’m passing on Druw Jones or Jackson Holliday for either of them in any size league. In shallow to medium size leagues, I wouldn’t start to consider Senga until after my Top 7 are off the board in my Top 43 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings, and Masataka until my Top 13 are off the board.

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Los Angeles Dodgers (free)—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—New York Yankees (free)—Oakland Athletics—San Diego Padres—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 43 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100 COMING LATER IN THE OFF-SEASON)
-A TOP 150 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: TOP 68 C//TOP 95 1B//TOP 105 2B
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/4/22)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/4/22):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT, INCLUDING:
-TOP 10 TRADE NEGOTIATION TACTICS (one of my favorite things I’ve ever written)
-TOP 10 MID-SEASON TRADE TARGETS
-MID-SEASON OBP TOP 447 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS 
-MID-SEASON POINTS/6+CATS/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 430 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-JUNE 2022 TOP 350 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-JUNE 2022 TOP 445 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

Edward Olivares KCR, OF, 26.4 – 2 for 4 with a 108 MPH homer and 108.9 MPH single. That has been the story of Olivares’ season as he’s been smoking the ball with a 91.2 MPH EV in 59 AB. While I doubt he can keep hitting the ball this hard, coming into more power in his late 20’s isn’t that hard to buy into. He’s also fast and his strong contact rates have transferred to the majors. I’ve never ranked Oliveras all that high in my dynasty rankings throughout his career, but maybe my hate of olives has subconsciously biased me against him. The high groundball rates might limit his upside, but he can be the fake Gucci bag version of Michael Harris and Alek Thomas.

Michael Harris ATL, OF, 21.4 – Speaking of Harris, he nuked a dinger of his own on a 108.8 MPH, 425 foot bomb. If you’re trying to acquire him at this point, you’re going to have to pay up like it’s one of those stores on 5th Avenue where you have to be buzzed in to even be let in the store.

Spencer Torkelson DET, 1B, 22.10 – 1 for 4 with a frozen rope of a homer for his 5th of the year in 70 games. Tork is struggling with a .587 OPS, but his 23.9% whiff% is above average, his 89 MPH EV is above average, his .319 xwOBA is above average and his 10.4% BB% is above average. Whatever you do, don’t give up on him.

Brandon Woodruff MIL, RHP, 28.5 – 6 IP, 6 hits, 0 ER, 8/0 K/BB vs. PIT. The stuff looks great. My dad has had Reynaud’s Syndrome basically my entire life, and while he would be in full arctic tundra gear when watching some of my baseball games, he would still kick my ass in stickball with a 4 pitch mix and pinpoint control. If Woodruff’s anything like my pops, he’ll figure it out.

Max Meyer MIA, RHP, 22.4 – Meyer hit the IL after two terrible starts in mid May, but he’s back to dominating since returning in mid June. He went 6 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 5/0 K/BB at Triple-A yesterday and now has a 1.62 ERA with an 18/1 K/BB in his last 16.2 IP. He could get the call at any moment.

Emerson Hancock SEA, RHP, 23.1 – 5.2 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 6/2 K/BB at Double-A. Hancock gets forgotten about, but he has plus control (7% BB%) of an MLB quality 4 pitch mix. He also understands the art of pitching. If he can stay healthy, I would be pretty surprised if he doesn’t end up a damn good MLB starter.

Vaughn Grissom ATL, SS, 21.6 – 3 for 4 with a double and a homer that he launched over the Green(ville) Monster. Grissom’s power is taking a big jump this year with 12 homers in 68 games at High-A and it hasn’t impacted his elite contact numbers at all (12% K%). He walks and has speed too. He’s easily entering Top 50 prospect status at the least.

 James Triantos CHC, 3B, 19.5 – Triantos homered for the 3rd straight game, and this one left no doubt about his future power potential as he crushed it out to centerfield. It also happened to be some of the best camera work I’ve ever seen on a homer, following the ball perfectly against the backdrop of the clear black sky. The hit tool has been as advertised with a .280 BA and 17.5% K% in 66 games at Single-A, and now he has a decent 5 homers on the year.

Eguy Rosario SDP, 2B/3B, 22.10 – First there was Esports, and now there are Eguys. When will it end? Like Esports, Eguy is taking over, going 3 for 3 with 2 homers and a steal yesterday, and now has 13 homers, 13 steals, and a 21.8%/11.2% K%/BB% in 72 games at Triple-A. He also made one of the best catches I’ve ever seen. Eguys are just built different I guess.

Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 19.11 – 3 for 5 with a double and a homer at Single-A. He’s managed to get even better since returning from the IL, slashing .396/.476/.642 with 1 homer, 5 steals, and a 20.6%/12.7% K%/BB% in 14 games. He’s an elite prospect.

Andy Pages LAD, OF, 20.7 – The power explosion was inevitable, and it arrived in full force once the calendar hit June. He went 2 for 4 with a homer yesterday and has now hit 9 homers in his last 27 games at Double-A. His profile is pretty locked in as a low average, high walk slugger.

Shane Baz TBR, RHP, 23.1 – 6 IP, 7 hits, 1 ER, 7/2 K/BB vs. TOR. The fastball averaged 95.9 MPH and put up a 79.7 MPH EV on the pitch, while his slider and curve racked up whiffs with a 45% and 40% whiff%. It’s pretty clear he is healthy and on a beeline to become one of the best pitchers in baseball.

MacKenzie Gore SD, LHP, 22.4 – The walk problems are back as Gore walked 4 batters in 5.2 IP yesterday and has now walked 3 or more in his last 6 starts. It’s well beyond just a couple game blip at this point. You have to expect some growing pains, so I would stay patient, but it’s definitely a little concerning.

Bobby Miller LAD, RHP, 22.3 – Miller had his best start of the year, going 6 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 10/3 K/BB at Double-A. His season was starting to look pretty mediocre, so he desperately needed a start like this. The stuff is huge and is most certainly MLB quality, so while he might not be an ace, he should be able to get the job done in whatever role LA deploys him in.

Gavin Williams CLE, RHP, 22.11 – 6.2 IP, 4 hits, 0 ER, 6/0 K/BB at Double-A. The upper minors has been no issue for Williams with a pitching line of 1.69/1.13/19/8 in 16 IP. The fastball is his best pitch and it might legitimately be an elite pitch. His secondaries aren’t too shabby either. He’s trending towards being a #2 fantasy starter.

Jeremy Pena HOU, SS, 23.9 – Pena looked a little rusty after coming off the IL with a thumb injury and also after his collision with Alvarez, going 4 for 23 with a 10/0 K/BB in 5 games, but he found his rhythm yesterday going 4 for 5 with 2 homers. The only weakness to his game has been his walk rate with only a 5.1% BB%, and he didn’t walk that much in any league above Single-A, but I still couldn’t rank him any lower 67th overall on my OBP Top 447 Mid-Season Dynasty Baseball Rankings considering how exciting his debut has been.

Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 20.6 – 2 for 3 and he obliterated the ball in every at bat with a 112.4 MPH double, 110.6 MPH groundout, and 106.9 MPH homer. I’m almost at the point where it isn’t even worth mentioning him in these rundowns because he’s so locked into elite status.

Cavan Biggio TOR, 2B, 26.0 – Biggio is quietly getting his career back on track, ripping 2 line drive singles in 4 AB at 98.8 MPH and 95.4 MPH. He now has a career high .365 xwOBA and 13% Barrel%. The homer and steal numbers are still subdued with 2 homers and 1 steal in 104 AB, but he’s back to being an OBP beast and is getting near full time at bats in a stacked lineup.

Tyler Wells BAL, RHP, 27.7 – 6 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 7/1 K/BB vs. MIN. Wells had no trouble getting whiffs in this one with a 34% whiff% (22.2% on the season). He’s been thriving on weak contact with an 87.6 MPH EV against, but the lack of K’s has made me hesitant to buy in. Doing this against Minnesota’s tough lineup just evaporated a lot of that doubt.

Max Muncy OAK, SS, 19.9 – 1 for 4 with a homer. Muncy swings one of the quickest bats in the minors and it’s resulted in 15 homers in 70 games at Single-A. The 29.7% K% is high, but it’s been better of late with a 24.8%/17.9% K%/BB% in his last 25 games. He’s easily trending towards being a top 100 prospect if he’s not there already.

Jeferson Quero MIL, C, 19.9 – 2 for 4 with a homer at Single-A. Jeferson’s season got off to a slow start with a .665 OPS in April and .587 OPS in May, but he’s exploded in his last 23 games, slashing .333/.426/.556 with 5 homers, 6 steals, and a 12.8%/11.7% K%/BB%. He’s firmly back on track to be one of the top catcher prospects in the game by this time next year.

Endy Rodriguez PIT, C, 22.1 – 2 for 4 with a homer. Rodriguez is putting in Yeoman’s work at High-A with a 122 wRC+. He doesn’t have huge power with 8 homers in 65 games, and his hit tool took a step back against more advanced competition with a career worst 24.2% K%. I think he can be a solid hitting catcher, but I don’t think he is going to be a major fantasy difference maker.

Xavier Edwards TB, 2B/3B, 22.11 – I admittedly have no idea what to think of Edwards. His power is ticking up this year as he drilled his 4th homer in 29 games at Triple-A, and the elite contact rates are still there with a 13.5%/9.5% K%/BB%, but he’s struggled mightily on the bases with 1 steal in 5 attempts. He had 19 steals in 31 attempts last year, so this isn’t a one year blip. I’m personally struggling to buy in, but I get if you’re higher on him than I am.

Bubba Thompson TEX, OF, 24.1 – 2 for 3 with a homer and 0/2 K/BB. Bubba is another one I’m torn on. He was a favorite of mine coming out of his draft year, and his mouth watering talent is self evident with 10 homers and 37 steals in 60 games at Triple-A. The plate approach is rough with a 26.7%/5% K%/BB%, but it’s been better of late with a 23.1%/11.5% K%/BB% in his last 22 games. The improved BB% definitely has me a little excited as he could be setting up to be a late career breakout type.

 Jonatan Clase SEA, OF, 20.1/Luis Rodriguez LAD, OF, 19.10 – Clase and Rodriguez both collected 2 hits with a homer yesterday for their 7th homers of the year, and are both prospects I like a lot, but they each have a 31.6% K% which is preventing me from really getting excited for them. I like Clase more between the two because he’s a speedster with 25 steals, so if he can get the K’s in check, his fantasy stock could soar.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 10 TRADE NEGOTIATION TACTICS (one of my favorite things I’ve ever written)
-TOP 10 MID-SEASON TRADE TARGETS
-MID-SEASON OBP TOP 447 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-MID-SEASON POINTS/6+CATS/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 430 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-JUNE 2022 TOP 350 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-JUNE 2022 TOP 445 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 16 2023 FYPD RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Chicago Cubs 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys and talk some team specific strategy for every team to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Chicago Cubs 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
–A Top 200 Sneak Peek of my 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings with more early releases coming all off-season
-Dynasty Team Reports for every team (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)
–Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Top 56 Catchers/Top 76 1B/Top 81 2B are up now)
-End of Season 2021 Top 466 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
-End of Season 2021 Top 322 Dynasty Prospects Rankings

Hitters

Ian Happ CHC, OF, 27.8 – Happ couldn’t hit his way out of a paper bag (grumpy high school baseball coach idioms are my favorite) all the way through August 15th with a triple-slash of .176/.284/.321 in 368 PA, and he couldn’t run his way out of said bag either with 1 steal in 2 attempts. But from then on he ripped that damn bag to shreds, slashing .333/.407/.680 with 13 homers, 8 steals, and a 41/17 K/BB in 167 PA. He brought his K% down to a more reasonable 24.6%, he started lifting the ball more, and he ran more than he has since 2018. The stolen bases are the true X factor for his value going forward, because with a 32.3% whiff% he’s not going to hit for a high average, and while he hits the ball hard, a 46% GB% caps his power upside a bit. 27 years old was always the classic age for a breakout season, and maybe Happ’s last month and a half surge was foreshadowing what is to come. I’m willing to take that shot. 2022 Projection: 78/28/84/.245/.341/.475/7

Frank Schwindel CHC, 1B, 29.9 – Schwindel’s been raking in the minor leagues since 2012, he just needed someone to give him his chance. Chicago gave him that chance and he took advantage of it, slashing .342/.389/.613 with 13 homers and a 36/16 K/BB in 56 games. He’s had plus contact rates with plus power his entire career, and that carried over into the majors. There are some red flags however. His 86.9/91.5 MPH AVG/FB EV is well below average, and so is his 6.2% BB%. He doesn’t currently have any competition for the job, but I’m concerned about his playing time long term. He ranked 40th on my Top 76 Dynasty First Base Rankings. 2022 Projection: 67/24/79/.267/.318/.462/1

Patrick Wisdom CHC, 3B/OF, 30.7 – Wisdom was cracking eggs of knowledge all over everyone’s faces (shoutout Always Sunny fans), putting up near elite hard hit numbers with a 15.7% Barrel% (top 9%), 96.2 MPH FB/LD EV, 114.2 MPH Max EV (top 8%), and a 51.6% HardHit% (top 8%). It led to 28 homers in 106 games. He’s mashed his entire career going back to his freshman year at St. Mary’s in 2011, so the power is for real. He’s also struck out a lot in his career, and the K’s ballooned in 2021 with a 41.3% whiff% and 40.8% K%. He’s going to hit homers, but there is a real chance he also hits under the Mendoza Line. 2022 Projection: 64/26/75/.208/.298/.447/6

Starting Pitchers

Marcus Stroman CHC, RHP, 30.11 – Stroman’s been doing a lot of chirping on Twitter recently, but he’s backed up the trash talk with production. He put up a pitching line of 3.02/1.15/158/44 in 179 IP. He keeps the ball on the ground with a 91.9 MPH sinker and with a worm killing splitter that he added this season. He’s been slowly improving his strikeout rates throughout his career, and it reached a career best 21.7% K% in 2021, although that is still below average. He’s a better real life pitcher than fantasy one because of the strikeout numbers, but maybe the trend will hold and he will continue to unlock more K’s in the future. 2022 Projection: 11/3.54/1.26/161 in 180 IP

Adbert Alzolay CHC, RHP, 27.1 – Alzolay threw his relatively new slider more than ever in 2021 (39.8% usage), and it proved to be an excellent pitch with a 37.4% whiff% and .256 xwOBA. He combines that with a groundball inducing 93.8 MPH sinker and a 94 MPH fastball that put up a very respectable 26.8% whiff% (he also mixes in a changeup, cutter, and curveball). The K/BB numbers were excellent with a 128/34 K/BB in 125.2 IP. He finished the season in the pen during September, but he’s expected to win a rotation spot back in 2022. I’m definitely going to be grabbing him in a lot of places to fill out of the back of my rotation. 2022 Projection: 9/4.14/1.28/156 in 150 IP

Chicago Cubs Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects

1) Brennen Davis CHC, OF, 22.5 – Davis is 6’4”, 210 pounds with easy power and no problems keeping the ball off the ground. He smacked 19 homers in 99 games split across 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA). Like many guys this tall, he has some strikeout issues with a 28.7% K%, and while he will definitely chip in with steals, he went 6 for 10 in 76 Double-A games and he didn’t attempt a steal in 15 Triple-A games. The upside is very high, but there is still some risk here too. 2022 Projection: 48/17/55/.242/.313/.441/7 Prime Projection: 88/33/99/.261/.338/.510/11

2) Cristian Hernandez CHC, SS, 18.4 – Hernandez was my #1 international prospect heading into 2021, and he lived up to the hype in his pro debut, slashing .285/.398/.424 with 5 homers, 21 steals, and a 20.4%/15.7% K%/BB% in 47 games in the DSL. I fell in love with his explosive swing from Youtube videos, and at 6’2”, 175 pounds, he’s a good bet to grow into plus power, although he will have to raise his 56.5% GB% to get to all it (he has plenty of time to do that). He also has plus speed and showed a very mature approach at the plate. He has star upside. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 88/26/88/.274/.353/.483/16

3) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 20.0 – Armstrong was my favorite target in last year’s first year player drafts, ranking him 7th overall, and he got off to a glorious start with 10 hits in his first 24 at bats, but it all came to a screeching halt when he tore his labrum (shoulder), which required season ending surgery. He’s already back in the batting cages, so he should be good to go for 2022. He has a plus hit, speed, and a defense profile, but I think there is more power in the tank than he is getting credit for. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 91/16/66/.278/.355/.434/22

4) Kevin Alcantara CHC, OF, 19.9 – Alcantara is 6’6”, 188 pounds and has potential written all over him. He is an excellent athlete with plenty of room on his frame to fill out and end up with at least plus power at peak. There is some swing and miss to his game, but it’s not expected to be an extreme problem. He showed out in rookie ball this year, slashing .345/.423/.588 with 5 homers, 5 steals, and a 26.1%/12.3% K%/BB% in 34 games. He’s a great high upside shot to take, and his price should remain very reasonable this off-season. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 76/27/85/.250/.325/.473/11

5) Reginald Preciado CHC, SS, 18.11 – Preciado is a sinewy and projectable 6’4”, 185 pounds, and he got off to a strong start in his pro career, slashing .333/.383/.511 with 3 homers, 7 steals, and a 22.7%/7.1% K%/BB% in 34 games in rookie ball. He’s a switch hitter with a quick and simple swing that is geared for both power and average. While he stole 7 bags, he’s not a burner and will likely be more of a power hitter as he ages. He will still be 18 years old when the 2022 season starts. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/25/83/.267/.332/.472/7

6) Owen Caissie CHC, OF, 19.9 – Caissie is a 6’4”, 190 pound lefty masher who looks a bit like Joey Gallo at the dish. He performed a bit like Joey Gallo at the dish too with a 29.6%/18.6% K%/BB% to go along with 7 homers in 54 games split between rookie ball and Single-A. He decimated rookie ball with a 179 wRC+ in 32 games, but when he got to the more age appropriate Single-A, his numbers took a dive (.695 OPS). He’s your classic power and patience slugger who gets a big boost in OBP leagues. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 81/29/85/.243/.335/.486/2

7) James Triantos CHC, 2B/SS, 19.2 – Selected 56th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Triantos had an eye opening pro debut, slashing .327/.376/.594 with 6 homers, 3 steals, and a 16.5%/6.4% K%/BB% in 25 games in rookie ball. He has a textbook righty swing and a great feel to hit. He doesn’t project for huge power, but he should be able to get to all of the power he has through quality of contact. The hype has started to percolate for him, but he should still come at a good value in off-season drafts. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 85/23/78/.283/.341/.462/6

8) Brailyn Marquez CHC, LHP, 23.2 – It was a lost season for Marquez as he never got on the mound in 2021 due to getting Covid in the spring and then suffering a shoulder strain when he was ramping back up. The stuff is too nasty to just forget about though with an upper 90’s fastball, plus slider, and a changeup that supposedly showed improvement at the alt site in 2020. He needs to improve his control and the shoulder injury adds more risk, but I still love taking a shot on his upside. 2022 Projection: 4/4.15/1.33/76 in 70 IP  Prime Projection: 10/3.76/1.29/175 in 155 IP

9) DJ Herz CHC, LHP, 21.3 – Herz has a bit of a funky lefty delivery which always wrecks havoc on hitter’s ability to pick up pitches. It can add some injury risk and control problems (4.8 BB/9), so it’s a give and take. He used that delivery to fire 3 potentially plus pitches in his mid 90’s fastball, curve, and changeup. The stuff is nasty and it led to a pitching line of 3.31/1.05/131/41 in 81.2 IP split between Single-A and High-A. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 11/3.76/1.28/180 in 160 IP

10) Nelson Velazquez CHC, OF, 23.3 – Velazquez put on a show at the Arizona Fall League, slashing .385/.480/.712 with 9 homers and a 27.6%/13.8% K%/BB% in 26 games. This coming off his destruction of Double-A with a .938 OPS in 34 games. He didn’t fair as well at High-A (.776 OPS with a 33.7% K%), but he was still hitting for power with 12 homers in 69 games. He rips the ball extremely hard and he has some speed too with 17 steals in 19 attempts in 103 games. The plate approach still needs refinement and there is hit tool risk, but he has very fantasy friendly upside. 2022 Projection: Prime Projection: 74/26/83/.247/.321/.478/8

11) Jordan Wicks CHC, LHP, 22.7 – Selected 21st overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Wicks is a safe pick that is more appealing the deeper the league is. His money maker is a double plus changeup that he relies on heavily. The fastball sits in the low 90’s and he has two average-ish breaking balls with his slider being the better of the two pitches. He had a pitching line of 3.70/1.28/118/28 in 92.1 IP in the Big 12, so while that is solid, he hasn’t exactly been lights out. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 11/4.09/1.28/176 in 173 IP

Strategy

The Cubs tore it down in 2021 and in doing so they built one of the best farm systems in baseball with both depth and elite talent. They could legitimately be a juggernaut by 2024. They’ve done an excellent job of developing talent in the recent past, especially hitting talent, and a lot of their top hitting prospects should come at a great value this off-season. I’m going to be all over Cubs prospects in drafts.

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
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