JD Martinez – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on June 12, 2023June 16, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (6/12/23)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (6/12/23):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 456 JUNE DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
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-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG! (5/16/23)
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (6/16/23)

Luis Guanipa ATL, OF, 17.6 – Guanipa is the early favorite to be THE prospect breakout from the DSL. He’s hit in all 4 games and is slashing .333/.368/.778 with 2 homers, 4 steals, and a 21.1%/5.3% K%/BB%. It’s still early, but I loved him coming into the season as my #2 international target (Sebastian Walcott was my #1 target), and he received a large signing bonus with the tools to back it up. Sample is still super small and DSL stats are the most untrustworthy, but if you’re shooting for the moon, Guanipa could be your guy.

Jun-seok Shim PIT, RHP, 19.2 – Shim made his pro debut on Saturday and went nuclear, going 4 IP with 0 hits, 0 ER, and a 8/0 K/BB in the FCL (stateside rookie ball). He has an innings eater build at 6’4”, 215 pounds, and he has the big fastball befitting of his stature with mid 90’s heat. The curve is his best secondary, and he backed up his scouting report in his first outing showing good control. The ingredients are most certainly here for him to truly explode. At the minimum, keep a close watch on him, and it might be worth scooping him now.

Michael Arroyo SEA, SS/3B, 18.7 – Here’s what I wrote about Arroyo in my Top 44 Rookie Ball/DSL Prospects Rankings (Patreon), ranking him 14th overall:

“Upside – Gabriel Gonzalez

Downside – The plus hit tool slides more towards above average, and he doesn’t have the explosive tools to make up for it

Prime Projection: 82/18/73/.273/.339/.435/6″ …

The upside is winning out with him slashing .636/.692/.909 with 1 homer, 3 steals, and a 7.7%/7.5% K%/BB% in 4 games at stateside rookie. It’s a repeat of what he did in the DSL, and it sure looks like he will follow in Gabriel Gonzalez’ footsteps as a plus to double plus hit tool riser.

Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.9 – Carroll rose all the way to 3rd overall on the Updated Top 456 Dynasty Baseball Rankings that dropped Friday on the Patreon, and he didn’t let the high ranking go to his head, smacking 3 more hits on Sunday at 109.8 MPH (single), 107.4 MPH (triple), and 103.6 MPH (double). He also stole his 19th bag. He’s on pace to go .308/32/47 on the season with the underlying numbers to back it up. Only Ohtani (#1) and Acuna (#2) can match this type of production …

Wander Franco TBR, SS, 22.3 – … don’t let Franco hear me say that, because he would have every right to take that personally. He went 2 for 4 with a 371 foot bullet shot for his for his 8th homer of the year. He’s also stolen 22 bags in 63 games, which takes his elite hit tool profile with improving power to the next level. An 88.2 MPH EV with a 8 degree launch makes his power a little shakier than some of the other elite options, which keeps him 6th overall on the Updated Dynasty Rankings.

Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS/3B, 21.11 – Gunnar went 3 for 5 with a 113.8 MPH, 462 foot rocket, and all of a sudden his season numbers are starting to look pretty damn good with his OPS over .800 at .804. Over his last 15 games he’s slashing .354/.404/.729 with 5 homers, 3 steals, and a 13/4 K/BB. He’s finally starting to run more and also get the strikeouts in check. I mean, he ain’t Corbin Carroll, that ship has sailed, but I hope you bought low when you could

Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.5 – Are you even allowed to write an article about baseball without mentioning Elly De La Cruz? Dude is the talk of the town and his elite athleticism has started to transcend just baseball circles. He collected 2 more hits yesterday, one of which came at 109.7 MPH. That’s a weakly hit dribbler for Elly. He also stole his 3rd bag. He’s now slashing .364/.481/.636 with 1 homer, 3 steals, and a 37%/18.5% K%/BB% in 27 PA. The K% is high, but the 33.3% whiff% isn’t quite in the cover your eyes territory, and he’s walking a ton too. It’s just about as good of an MLB debut as we could have hoped for. He ranked 23rd overall on the Updated Rankings. He deserves a truly elite return in trades.

Rayner Arias SFG, OF, 17.2 – The plus bloodlines win again. Arias comes from a baseball family and he’s showing off that high baseball IQ and advanced beyond his years DNA, slashing .438/.550/.875 with 2 homers, 1 steal, and a 10%/20% K%/BB% in 4 DSL games. He’s not just a high IQ guy though, he’s also a projectable 6’1”, 180 pounds with a big righty swing that has clear power potential. He looks like a good one.

Gabriel Lara NYY, OF, 17.6 – Lara is another early DSL pop up, slashing .438/.550/.875 with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 10%/15% K%/BB% in 4 games. He has truly elite speed with a good feel to hit coming from a quick, compact lefty swing. He’s only 5’9”, but he’s not a skinny nothing, he definitely has some muscle. Carlos Jorge and Jonatan Clase would be the upside here, maybe even with a better hit tool.

Keiner Delgado NYY, 2B/3B, 19.5 – Delgado’s truly elite plate approach is transferring to stateside rookie ball, slashing .333/.538/.556 with 1 homer, 4 steals, and an 11.5%/30.8% K%/BB% in 5 games. He remains a year older than optimal, and while age for level is important, you don’t want to be a total slave to it. He’s also a small guy at 5’8”, so the power upside isn’t huge. Regardless, he’s an excellent athlete with the potential for an elite plate approach with speed and some pop.

Enmanuel Tejeda NYY, SS, 18.5 – Tejada is also backing up his strong DSL showing in 2022, slashing .438/.591/.813 with 2 homers, 4 steals, and a 22.7%/22.7% K%/BB% in 5 games in stateside rookie. He’s not a monster tools guy, but he has the potential to be that solid across the board contributor at peak.

Abraham Nunez CHW, OF, 17.3 – Okay, enough with these little guy breakouts. Nunez is a projectable 6’3”, 170 pounds with baseball bloodlines (his dad played in the majors) and good athleticism. He’s slashing .500/.647/.917 with 1 homer, 3 steals, and a 11.8%/29.4% K%/BB% in 4 DSL games. He surely checks a lot of boxes. Keep an eye out.

Luis Baez HOU, OF, 19.5 – I couldn’t do this mini Rookie Ball Rundown without mentioning the current rookie ball home run leader, Luis Baez. He’s jacked 4 homers in just 5 games in stateside rookie coming off a season where he jacked 9 homers in 58 games in the DSL. He has the raw power to back up the numbers at 6’1”, 215 pounds with a powerful righty swing. The hit tool is still a bit of a question mark with a poor 25.2%/6.3% K%/BB% in 2022, but it’s been better so far in 2023 (20.8%/16.7%). He’s also a year older than optimal and is more physically mature than most of his competition. But hitting bombs like this will certainly get you on the radar.

Jack Suwinski PITT, OF, 24.10 – Everybody was looking to put Suwinski in the grave, but he refused to comply, continuing his re-reemergence yesterday on a 2 for 4 day with a 108.6 MPH homer. He has 6 homers with a 1.142 OPS over his last 14 games. The strikeout rate is still too high at 32% and he isn’t running as much as optimal, but the guy can mash.

Braxton Garrett MIA, LHP, 25.10 – 5.1 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 9/1 K/BB vs. CHW. Garrett’s been the epitome of the crafty lefty this year, throwing a 6 pitch mix without any of the pitches cracking even 90 MPH (89.9 MPH sinker), but it gets the job done with an enticing 29.4% whiff% and 4.9% BB%. He’s not exactly a world beater with a 4.10 ERA and 4.73 xERA in 63.2 IP, but the guy knows the art of pitching, With Trevor Rogers on the comeback trail, Miami will have a decision to make on their rotation, because they don’t have a spot for him right now.

Nolan Jones COL, OF, 25.1 – Who would have thunk the 24/25 year old hitting for a 175 wRC+ at Triple-A, and who has produced his entire career, would actually be good? Nice of Colorado to actually get around to playing him, and surprise surprise, he continues to be good. He went 2 for 4 with a 111.6 MPH homer yesterday and is now slashing .360/.407/.680 with 4 homers, 4 steals, and a 31.5%/7.4% K%/BB% in 15 games. Most surprising is how much he’s running, and he has the above average speed to back it up with a 27.9 ft/sec sprint. There is still hit tool risk, but the very reasonable 26.9% whiff% is comforting it won’t get too crazy. I’m buying.

Ezequiel Tovar COL, SS, 21.10 – Tovar has slowly but surely pulled himself out of that early season hole he dug himself, and his 2 for 4 day with a 424 foot homer off Blake Snell has finally brought his season OPS over .700 to .707. Over his last 21 games he’s slashing .333/.375/.533 with 2 homers, 2 steals, and a 19/5 K/BB. I’m not gonna lie, the power/speed combo is still lacking, and the plate approach has been mediocre at best, so I’m not exactly buying, but he’s certainly finding his groove against MLB pitchers.

Zach Neto LAA, SS, 22.4 – Neto has just been laying down a rock solid foundation over his first 51 MLB games, and now he’s ready to build on it, blowing up yesterday with a 2 homer game. One was hit at 106.9 MPH and the other at 105.9 MPH. It’s actually quite remarkable what he’s doing against MLB pitching considering how quickly he was rushed through the minors, and he didn’t even come from a major conference in college. An 89.6 MPH EV with an 11.4 degree launch and 18.9% K% is the exact across the board profile I expected when I ranked him 3rd overall on my FYPD Rankings this off-season.

J.D. Martinez LAD, DH, 35.9 – 0 for 4 with 0 homers. I thought it was notable that he actually had a bad day, because he hasn’t had many since I named him a player to target in my Top Dynasty Baseball Targets (Patreon), ripping 7 homers in 15 games since then. His .400 xwOBA is in the top 3% of the league and his 93 MPH EV is a career high. Dodgers strike again.

Luis Matos SFG, OF, 21.4 – Let’s just pretend 2022 never happened. Matos has picked up from where his 2021 season ended, cracking 2 more homers yesterday at Triple-A on a 3 for 5 day. And just check out the vicious swings he used to unload on those two dingers. He’s not a huge guy, but he definitely packs a punch. He’s now blowing the doors off Triple-A, slashing .396/.434/.660 with 6 homers, 6 steals, and a 7%/6.1% K%/BB%. He might have officially made it to his destination from that elite prospect beeline he was on in 2021 with power, speed, and elite contact. A callup to the majors could be in the cards in the 2nd half.

Junior Caminero TBR, 3B, 19.11 – Caminero sliced his 2nd homer in 12 games since getting the call to Double-A. He has the type of power where he doesn’t even need to get all of it to hit it out. Double-A has definitely slowed him down a bit with a 104 wRC+, but the kid is still 19 years old. He’s not the perfect prospect with a mediocre plate approach, relatively elevated groundball rates, and limited speed, but the guy is a masher no matter how you slice it.

Termarr Johnson PIT, 2B/SS, 19.0 – Johnson hit an absolute no doubter to the tiki lounge in deep centerfield for his 3rd homer in 37 games at Single-A. It hasn’t exactly been the season we wanted to see from the uberhyped prospect with a 32.3% K%, but he still has a 126 wRC+ despite the swing and miss. I warned the hit tool wasn’t as good as advertised this off-season, so I wasn’t completely caught off guard by this, but I’m still buying the talent. He turned 19 yesterday, and I respect a player who finds ways to produce even when they aren’t completely locked in yet. Something tells me he’s about to hit his first real groove of the season. Don’t sell low.

Jake Eder MIA, LHP, 24.8 – Eder made his long awaited season debut earlier this month coming off Tommy John surgery and a broken foot, and he looked good in his 2nd outing on Saturday, going 4 IP with 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 3/1 K/BB at Single-A on a rehab assignment. The slide piece is still absolutely filthy and the fastball sat in the low to mid 90’s range. He was cracking Top 100’s before going down with the injury, and he has the potential to get back there if he keeps performing when he gets back to Double-A.

Anthony Solometo PIT, LHP, 20.5 – 4 IP, 5 hits, 0 ER, 7/0 K/BB at High-A. How can you not love watching this guy pitch? He now has a 2.30 ERA with a 29.1%/10.7% K%/BB% in 58.2 IP on the season, and I think he’s now officially knocking on the door of Top 100 status if he isn’t there already. I’ve been targeting him since before he even got drafted, and I’m still buying hard.

Noah Schultz CHW, LHP, 19.8 – My top pitching target in this year’s first year player draft class, Schultz finally made his season debut earlier this month, and it was worth the wait. The guy looks like Baby Randy Johnson on the mound at 6’9”, 220 pounds with a mid 90’s fastball, a potentially plus slider and developing change. He’s dominated in his 2 short outings, going 4 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 6/0 K/BB. The control has looked pretty good too. I implore you to get in now. He’s about to blow up.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on December 16, 2019January 14, 2020 by Michael Halpern

A Top 100 Sneak Peek of the 2020 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

The 2020 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings Sneak Peek Series continues with the Top 100:

1) Ronald Acuna ATL, OF, 22.3 – Combination of age and stolen base upside is what separates Acuna from the pack, but a 26.3% K% presents a risk that other candidates for the top spot don’t have. In anything other than a 5×5 league (points, OBP), I would look elsewhere with the top pick. 2020 Projection: 111/37/98/.285/.367/.524/31

2) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 28.8 – Turning 29 during the 2020 season, career low 13 steal attempts, and a much younger crop of generational talent establishing themselves in 2019 are why Trout is no longer the obvious #1 pick in dynasty. I still have him #1 in redrafts. 2020 Projection: 113/46/107/.299/.442/.631/15

3) Juan Soto WASH, OF, 21.5 – Flipped hitting profile from rookie season, upping FB% to 37.2% (from 28.8%) and lowering GB% to 41.6% (from 53.7%). 97 MPH FB/LD exit velocity is 2.1 MPH higher than Trout and 1.4 MPH higher than Acuna. Soto is my #1 pick in non 5×5 dynasty leagues. 2020 Projection: 108/36/105/.296/.404/.553/10

4) Cody Bellinger LAD, 1B/OF, 24.9 – Career bests in BB% (14.4%), K% (16.4%), average exit velocity (90.7 MPH), and launch angle (17.6 degree launch). On the flip side, OPS declined every month of the season (1.397, .998, .967, .952, .918, .891, playoffs-.549). 2020 Projection: 110/43/110/.288/.383/.598/14

5) Christian Yelich MIL, OF, 28.4 – Here is what I wrote about Yelich in my 2019 Top 1,000: “… posted the lowest GB% of his career by a good margin in August and September (46% and 44%, respectively). If he can carry those gains over a full season, the power breakout may not be a complete outlier.” That is exactly what happened, with Yelich posting a 43.2% GB% and hitting a career high 44 homers. The fractured knee cap that ended his season supposedly won’t have any long term effects. 2020 Projection: 111/37/104/.309/.410/.605/20

6) Mookie Betts BOS, OF, 27.6 – As a Yankees fan, I pray to the baseball gods every night that Boston trades Mookie Betts for “can’t miss” pitching prospects. 2020 Projection: 119/33/86/.310/.402/.552/22

7) Trea Turner WASH, SS, 26.9 – Power took a big step forward, raising average exit velocity 2.5 MPH to 90.3 MPH. Remains a speedster with the 2nd fastest sprint speed in baseball, behind only Tim Locastro (Buxton is a close 3rd). 2020 Projection: 104/24/77/.293/.350/.488/41

8) Fernando Tatis Jr. SD, SS, 21.3 – With a 29.6% K% and a 6.9 degree launch angle, you can look at Tatis’ 2019 in one of two ways. Either you think he got lucky and there is serious regression coming, or you are scared at the thought of what his stats might look like when he inevitably improves on those underlying numbers. I’m in camp #2. 2020 Projection: 101/35/99/.274/.348/.531/26

9) Francisco Lindor CLE, SS, 26.4 – Small step back in K%, BB%, GB% and sprint speed, but I’m willing to write that off to his early season calf injury considering overall production remained strong. 2020 Projection: 104/32/87/.285/.349/.520/20

10) Trevor Story COL, SS, 27.4 – Carried over the major improvements he made in K% and stolen bases in 2018 into 2019. One of the premier power/speed combos in the game. 2020 Projection: 100/36/100/.283/.354/.546/22

11) Wander Franco TB, SS, 19.1 – Acuna and Soto might be old news in 2 years if Franco reaches his upside of plus to double plus all category production. He very well may be the true heir to Trout’s throne. 2020 Projection: September-13/4/9/.277/.341/.445/4 Prime Projection: 114/32/113/.316/.405/.595/19

12) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 3B, 21.0 – Modest rookie season, but make no mistake, the thunder is coming. 2020 Projection: 95/32/106/.298/.373/.538/2

13) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 23.5 – Ranked 16th overall in average exit velocity (92.1 MPH) and cut K% by 7.7% to 17%. 2020 Projection: 98/33/104/.302/.360/.549/7

14) Alex Bregman HOU, 3B, 26.0 – Gets dinged in the rankings because of the possibility of a suspension and the unknown of how much cheating improved his stats. Relatively low 92.3 MPH FB/LD exit velocity is another red flag. 2020 Projection: 103/30/101/.291/.403/.538/9

15) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 27.6 – Armageddon 1st half (.218/.308/.344) followed by a beastly 2nd half (.327/.365/.739) that was interrupted and ultimately cut short by a fractured hamate bone. Like Bregman, low FB/LD exit velocity (91.8 MPH) indicates some power downside. 2020 Projection: 98/30/93/.279/.358/.518/25

16) Nolan Arenado COL, 3B, 29.0 – Steady as they come. 40 homers with a high average. 2020 Projection: 103/39/116/.298/.375/.568/2

17) Austin Meadows TB, OF, 24.11 – When I ranked Meadows 54th overall in last year’s ranking, someone asked me what I was smoking. Apparently I was toking on salvia divinorum, aka, sage of the diviners, aka it’s a plant you smoke and then you hallucinate, because Meadows broke out with a .291 BA, 33 homers, and 12 steals. He hits it very hard, hits it in the air, has speed, and has a strong plate approach. 2020 Projection: 93/32/96/.282/.351/.531/15

18) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 27.6 – Strikeout rate going in the wrong direction (26.1%), but power, speed, and walks are all in peak form. 2020 Projection: 100/36/103/.265/.381/.533/14

19) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 22.9 – Hitting profile looks mighty similar to Bryce Harper without the speed. 2020 Projection: 93/35/104/.273/.369/.542/4

20) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 27.11 – Led the league in average exit velocity every year since getting called up in 2016. Smashed 15 homers in final 33 games to salvage what was shaping up to be a mediocre season. 2020 Projection: 107/42/101/.263/.370/.545/7

21) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 22.1 – Like Tatis, the impressive triple slash (.311/..358/.571) is considerably better than the underlying numbers, but I’m betting on the underlying numbers mostly catching up to the slash line, rather than the other way around. 2020 Projection: 93/24/79/.282/.340/.481/18 Prime Projection: 118/34/95/.296/.373/.542/15

22) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 23.3 – Average exit velocity jumped 2.5 MPH to 88.8 MPH, although exit velocity on fly balls actually decreased by 0.3 MPH. It’s still a good sign that there is another level of power in here as he matures. 2020 Projection: 107/26/84/.288/.356/.490/17

23) Gerrit Cole NYY, RHP, 29.7 – I don’t factor in age with pitchers quite as much as with hitters because every pitcher is one injury away from a career altering injury. Young pitchers also haven’t proven their arm can withstand season after season of 200+ innings which makes them more risky than an older pitcher with more miles on their arm. 2020 Projection: 18/2.92/0.98/295 in 205 IP

24) Walker Buehler LAD, RHP, 25.8 – Throws the fastest cutter by a starter at 92.8 MPH (1.8 MPH ahead of 2nd, Marcus Stroman). Final hurdle to cross is how his arm responds after a career high 195 IP (including the postseason), which is a 34 IP increase from 2018. 2020 Projection: 17/3.23/1.01/230 in 191 IP

25) Jacob deGrom NYM, RHP, 31.9 – Career high velocity on all of his pitches. Upped slider and fastball usage while ditching his sinker and minimizing the curve. 2020 Projection: 14/2.86/0.99/260 in 208 IP

26) Gleyber Torres NYY, 2B, 23.4 – Exit velocities and K/BB are solid but don’t jump out at you. 17.4 degree launch angle ensures healthy power production, and I’m expecting continued improvement in all aspects of his game. 2020 Projection: 97/32/106/.283/.352/.521/4

27) Xander Bogaerts BOS, SS, 27.6 – Maintained exit velocity gains from 2018 and notched a career high 10.9% BB%. With only 6 steal attempts in 155 games, you can no longer count on him in the speed department as you build your roster. 2020 Projection: 99/28/108/.296/.369/.529/7

28) Javier Baez CHC, SS, 27.4 – Getting by with pure exit velocity and speed. 2020 Projection: 98/33/103/.278/.319/.520/13

29) Anthony Rendon LAA, 3B, 29.10 – From my 2019 Top 1,000: “With a 13.7% K% and 17.7 degree launch angle, there is potential for a monster career season lurking in here.” … The monster was unleashed and it landed him a $245 million contract. 2020 Projection: 104/32/108/.306/.382/.560/4

30) Keston Hiura MIL, 2B, 23.8 – Underlying stats profile as a low average, power hitting beast with a handful of steals. Ultimately should develop into more of a 20% strikeout hitter than the 30% he put up in 2019. 2020 Projection: 88/34/96/.268/.333/.507/11

31) Jack Flaherty STL, RHP, 24.6 – Velocity up about 1 MPH on every pitch and BB% was down 2.5%. Third year in a row posting well below average exit velocities against (86.1 MPH) gives hope the low BABIP’s (.242) is a skill. 2020 Projection: 16/3.38/1.11/229 in 194 IP

32) Shane Bieber CLE, RHP, 24.10 – Not a flamethrower but has advanced command over a 4 pitch mix. Batters were able to make some good contact against him with a 90.4 MPH average exit velocity against. Cole and Verlander both sat at 87.3 MPH for comparison. 2020 Projection: 15/3.41/1.09/220 in 195 IP

33) Yoan Moncada CHW, 3B, 24.10 – Not quite the speedster we all thought he was, but power showed up in a big way, upping exit velocity 2.3 MPH to 92.8 MPH. .315 batting average (.406 BABIP) is coming down. 2020 Projection: 96/30/89/.273/.360/.513/13

34) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 25.4 – Alonso is going to mash no matter how much Manfred loosens up those seams. 2020 Projection: 91/43/109/.263/.360/.557/1

35) Manny Machado SD, 3B/SS, 27.9 – Career worst 19.4% K% and low BABIP led to a career low .254 BA. The lack of steals was easy to predict, but now you have to worry about a mediocre average too. 2020 Projection: 92/34/102/.278/.351/.515/8

36) Eloy Jimenez CHW, OF, 23.4 – Elite exit velocity and 31 homers in 122 games proves the power wasn’t over-hyped. Has the ability to hit for both power and average when his K% comes down, and his minor league numbers suggest it will. 2020 Projection: 88/33/99/.283/.335/.530/1

37) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 22.8 – Sox have mentioned they view Robert like Eloy and we should expect an early season call up. He’s still raw at the plate, but has a power/speed combo that rivals Acuna. 2020 Projection: 63/26/68/.259/.308/.471/18 Prime Projection: 94/34/101/.277/.339/.521/25

38) Freddie Freeman ATL, 1B, 30.7 – Underlying numbers are very similar to his past two seasons when he put up 28 and 23 homers, respectively, but this season he managed to knock 38 homers. For reference, he hit 34 homers in 2016, but his exit velocity was about 2 MPH higher than 2017-2019. Freeman might be the clearest example of the impact of the juiced ball. 2020 Projection: 95/31/105/.298/.391/.543/5

39) Blake Snell TB, LHP, 27.4 – Missed two months after undergoing arthroscopic elbow surgery in July to remove loose bodies. Velocity was down on all of his pitches, but still among the hardest throwers in baseball. Bloated 4.29 ERA was at least partly due to a .343 BABIP. 2020 Projection: 13/3.37/1.18/223 in 178 IP

40) Ketel Marte ARI, 2B/OF, 26.6 – From my 2019 Top 1,000: “13.7% K%, 9.3% BB%, 88.6 MPH average exit velocity, 92 MPH on FB/LD, and 28.7 ft/sec sprint speed. If he can start lifting the ball more and add some strength as he enters his mid to late 20’s, there is a 5-category stud lurking in here.” … Marte added 1.3 MPH to his exit velocity and 5.8 degrees to his launch angle en route to a beastly 5-category season. 2020 Projection: 93/26/88/.293/.352/.512/9

41) Carlos Correa HOU, SS, 25.6 – In the midst of a power breakout but rib and back injuries limited him to only 25 games after May. A back injury tanked his 2018 season as well, so it’s a legitimate concern. 2020 Projection: 90/32/105/.283/.362/.527/3

42) Adalberto Mondesi KC, SS, 24.8 – Underwent labrum surgery on October 3rd, with a 5-6 month recovery. Major surgeries that ruin your normal off-season routine is not a recipe for a breakout season. 2020 Projection: 78/16/74/.255/.299/.422/41 Prime Projection: 93/23/86/.274/.329/.446/49

43) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/OF, 25.9 – Power and strikeouts … and strikeouts. The plan is for 1 start and 3-4 DH days per week. In weekly lineup leagues drop him down 100 spots because he can likely be viewed only as a 130 IP starter at peak. 2020 Projection: Hitting-46/17/52/.277/.349/.511/9 — Pitching-7/3.55/1.20/123 in 100 IP

44) Kris Bryant CHC, 3B/OF, 28.3 – Exit velocity is just not what it was in 2015 and 2016 when Bryant looked to be on the verge of becoming a perennial top 5 pick. I guess we’ll have to settle for merely very, very good. 2020 Projection: 110/32/80/.283/.381/.509/5

45) Matt Chapman OAK, 3B, 26.11 – Career low 21.9% K%, but a 3.6% jump in infield fly ball rate negated any possible batting average gains (.249 BA with a .270 BABIP). 2020 Projection: 105/38/96/.268/.355/.529/2

46) Mike Clevinger CLE, RHP, 29.3 – Upper back strain and sprained ankle caused Clevinger to miss almost the entire first half. Notched a career high 95.6 MPH fastball velocity, but that was on a steady decline as the season wore on. 2020 Projection: 15/3.31/1.14/222 in 190 IP

47) Stephen Strasburg WASH, RHP, 31.8 – Dominant, as usual, but he did it in a different way by upping his groundball percentage with increased sinker and curveball usage. Staying healthy all season is probably the most notable thing of all. 2020 Projection: 15/3.43/1.10/220 in 185 IP

48) Jo Adell LAA, OF, 21.0 – Elite athlete with double plus power. 32.6% K% and 0 homers in 27 games at Triple-A likely ensures at least a couple months of development time there in 2020. 2020 Projection: July-39/13/45/.250/.301/.459/6 Prime Projection: 101/37/108/.271/.353/.538/13

49) Justin Verlander HOU, RHP, 37.1 – Even at 37 years old Verlander is such a difference maker that he is worth a true elite prospect back in a trade. The cliff often doesn’t come with advanced warning, though, that is why they call it the cliff, and not the ramp. 2020 Projection: 17/3.08/1.01/270 in 208 IP

50) Max Scherzer WASH, RHP, 35.8 – Back issues held Scherzer to his lowest innings pitched total since his rookie year in 2009. He also didn’t pitch as well when he returned from the injury (4.81 ERA in 43 IP). 2020 Projection: 16/3.09/1.04/261 in 203 IP

51) Jose Altuve HOU, 2B, 29.11 – Career high K% (15%), career low stolen base total (6), and while Altuve hit a career high 31 homers, there wasn’t any significant improvements in exit velocity or flyball percentage to truly back up the power surge. 2020 Projection: 99/26/82/.292/.351/.490/13

52) JD Martinez BOS, OF, 32.7 – Best case scenario he’s Nelson Cruz and there is 7+ years of production left. Worst case scenario he’s Albert Pujols and this 32 year old season is the beginning of the end. 2020 Projection: 101/38/112/.308/.380/.570/3

53) Chris Paddack SD, RHP, 24.3 – Plus fastball/changeup combo is good enough, but continued development of the curveball can take him to the next level. 2020 Projection: 13/3.58/1.09/190 in 170 IP

54) Starling Marte PIT, OF, 31.6 – Career low 16% K%. Sprint speed is as good as ever but relying on speed as players get deeper into their 30’s is risky. 2020 Projection: 94/20/77/.289/.339/.462/28

55) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 22.4 – Sprint speed improved from below average in 2018 to above average in 2019. The power was never in question, but now there is hope the steals might transfer too. 2020 Projection: 71/24/77/.251/.325/.476/11 Prime Projection: 94/33/101/.265/.348/.513/15

56) Victor Robles WASH, OF, 22.10 – 81 MPH average exit velocity is cover your eyes bad. Even Stephen Strasburg managed to put up a 82.5. Jose Altuve has proven there is a path to strong power numbers with below average exit velocity (86.1 MPH), but Robles has to improve to reach even that level. 2020 Projection: 91/20/73/.272/.334/.439/27

57) George Springer HOU, OF, 30.6 – While his 2019 is likely a juiced ball aided career year, the strong underlying numbers don’t rule out the possibility of a repeat. 2020 Projection: 104/33/95/.280/.369/.525/7

58) Matt Olson OAK, 1B, 26.0 – Elite exit velocity power hitting beast. 2020 Projection: 93/38/105/.256/.345/.537/1

59) Giancarlo Stanton NYY, OF, 30.5 – Limited to 18 games due to a variety of injuries, but performed like himself in those games with a 100.3 MPH FB/LD exit velocity. 2020 Projection: 95/43/109/.261/.352/.546/3

60) Josh Bell PIT, 1B, 27.8 – Career high 37.3% FB% and 92.3 MPH exit velocity is evidence the power breakout is for real. 2020 Projection: 90/32/106/.273/.361/.528/1

61) Ramon Laureano OAK, OF, 25.9 – Plus power/speed combo but a 25.6% K% and 5.6% BB% shows he is not without risk. 2020 Projection: 89/27/84/.265/.334/.486/16

62) Tim Anderson CHW, SS, 26.9 – Career low 21% K% and career high 88.3 MPH exit velocity, along with a little BABIP luck, led to a breakout season, slashing .335/.357/.508 with 18 homers and 17 steals in 123 games. 2020 Projection: 90/23/72/.282/.321/.468/21

63) Patrick Corbin WASH, LHP, 30.8 – Backed up 2018’s breakout with another strong year on the back of his elite slider. Velocity up about 1 MPH on each pitch. 2020 Projection: 14/3.50/1.19/231 in 197 IP

64) Luis Severino NYY, RHP, 26.1 – Missed almost entire season with an inflamed rotator cuff and lat strain. Velocity wasn’t quite what it was in 2018, but at 96.1 MPH, that is more than enough. 2020 Projection: 13/3.55/1.18/200 in 175 IP

65) Gavin Lux LAD, 2B/SS, 22.4 – Another guy I was high on last year, ranking him 181st overall and writing, “Me thinks Lux is still being a bit underrated right now.” He isn’t underrated anymore. 2020 Projection: July-42/11/39/.272/.334/.451/7 Prime Projection: 98/28/93/.283/.356/.495/14

66) Chris Sale BOS, LHP, 31.0 – Inflammation in pitching elbow ended Sale’s season in August. Fastball was down 2 MPH and put up a career worst 4.40 ERA, but he still managed to strikeout 218 batters in 147.1 IP. 2020 Projection: 13/3.29/1.02/234 in 165 IP

67) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 19.3 – Advanced beyond his years feel to hit which he displayed at Full-A (.293 BA), High-A (.462 BA), and the Fall League (.288 BA). Add to that at least plus raw power and you have one of the most coveted prospects in baseball. ETA: Late 2021 Prime Projection: 96/35/109/.290/.368/.550/8

68) Charlie Blackmon COL, OF, 33.9 – Career low 26.7 ft/sec sprint speed doesn’t leave much hope for a stolen base bounce back (2 steals in 2019), but he has never hit the ball harder with a career high 88.5 MPH exit velocity. 2020 Projection: 106/33/84/.307/.362/.539/6

69) Luis Castillo CIN, RHP, 27.4 – Fireballing groundball pitcher with the most valuable changeup in baseball. 2020 Projection: 13/3.63/1.19/214 in 188 IP

70) Lucas Giolito CHW, RHP, 25.9 – Fastball velocity jumped 1.8 MPH to 94.6 MPH and changeup became an elite pitch. Grandal and his plus pitch framing should counteract any regression concerns. 2020 Projection: 13/3.69/1.17/226 in 185 IP

71) MacKenzie Gore SD, LHP, 21.1 – Potential for 4 plus pitches with plus control. Destroyed Hi-A with a silly pitching line of 1.02/0.71/110/20/ in 79.1 IP. 2020 Projection: July-6/3.82/1.26/83 in 78 IP Prime Projection: 17/3.22/1.03/240 in 200 IP

72) Anthony Rizzo CHC, 1B, 30.8 – As consistent as they come. 2020 Projection: 91/30/97/.288/.381/.513/5

73) Marcus Semien OAK, SS, 29.6 – Major breakout in basically every underlying stat and surface stat you look at. Some regression is likely, but the breakout was real. 2020 Projection: 107/29/76/.279/.360/.499/11

74) Eugenio Suarez CIN, 3B, 27.7 – Online IQ test question: What is the next number in this sequence – 4, 13, 21, 26, 34, 49, _? That is Suarez’ season home run totals since entering the league. My fake online IQ of 144 tells me Barry Bonds home run record might be in jeopardy next season. 2020 Projection: 84/32/98/.266/.352/.523/3

75) Joey Gallo TEX, OF, 26.4 – Has 281 hits in his career and 110 of them are homers. 38.4% K% still makes Gallo a huge average risk, but he also led the league in exit velocity on FB/LD at 101.2 MPH. 2020 Projection: 94/45/96/.234/.356/.549/4

76) Michael Conforto NYM, OF, 27.1 – Struggles vs. lefties is only true blemish (.701 OPS). 2020 Projection: 93/30/92/.263/.370/.502/5

77) Max Kepler MIN, OF, 27.2 – From my 2019 Top 1,000: “Posted career bests in K% (15.7%), BB% (11.6%), FB% (46.2%), and exit velo (89.5 MPH/93.9 MPH FB/LD). Kepler already broke out but it didn’t show up in his surface stats last year.” … It showed up this year, cranking 36 homers in 134 games while maintaining most of the underlying gains he made in 2018. 2020 Projection: 93/31/89/.266/.349/.502/3

78) Max Muncy LAD, 1B/2B/3B, 29.7 – Put any playing time concerns to rest with 589 PA, although the logjam isn’t breaking up anytime soon with Gavin Lux now trying to force his way into the lineup. 2020 Projection: 97/34/96/.254/.370/.513/3

79) Jorge Soler KC, OF, 28.1 – Huge power breakout, upping exit velocity 3.1 MPH and ripping 48 homers in 162 games. 2020 Projection: 85/33/98/.261/.350/.520/2

80) Eddie Rosario MIN, OF, 28.6 – Continued his free swinging ways (3.7% BB%) with power (32 homers) and a good feel to hit (14.6% K%). 2020 Projection: 84/28/92/.283/.316/.489/6

81) Jonathan Villar MIA, 2B/SS, 28.11 – Played in all 162 games, compiling 24 homers, 111 runs and 40 steals. Miami moving their fences in will cushion the blow a little bit from leaving Camden. 2020 Projection: 85/16/61/.263/.331/.430/34

82) Tyler Glasnow TB, RHP, 26.7 – Forearm strain knocked out most of Glasnow’s breakout season, but his velocity was fully back when he returned in September. His newfound control did not return, with 8 walks in 19.1 IP (including postseason). 2020 Projection: 10/3.58/1.19/185 in 150 IP

83) Aaron Nola PHI, RHP, 26.10 – Career best K/9 (10.19) and career worst BB/9 (3.56). Exit velocity against jumped to 88.5 MPH after being in the 85’s from 2016-2018. 2020 Projection: 14/3.66/1.21/221 in 205 IP

84) Rhys Hoskins PHI, 1B, 27.0 – Down-ish year when everyone else was experiencing a career year, but the homer/walk profile remains the same. 2020 Projection: 96/35/92/.250/.371/.512/3

85) Lourdes Gurriel Jr. TOR, OF, 26.6 – Took power to another level with 20 homers in 84 games by raising launch angle 3.7 degrees and increasing FB/LD exit velocity 3.2 MPH. 2020 Projection: 86/30/94/.270/.323/.492/8

86) Corey Seager LAD, SS, 25.11 – Career high 39.2% FB% didn’t result in a power breakout this season, but it portends good things for the future considering he was able to maintain strong exit velocity and plate approach numbers. 2020 Projection: 94/27/92/.281/.343/.496/1

87) Andrew Benintendi BOS, OF, 25.9 – 6.8% K% increase led to a down year across the board. Also has been getting slower every year. I feel more comfortable about a power rebound than I do a stolen base rebound. 2020 Projection: 93/21/86/.279/.357/.446/11

88) Nick Senzel CIN, OF, 24.8 – Underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in late September which puts his availability for opening day in question. Speed is his best asset right now, but still profiles as an above average all category contributor at peak. 2020 Projection: 74/16/66/.268/.333/.440/19 Prime Projection: 94/24/83/.278/.346/.462/23

89) Jarred Kelenic SEA, OF, 20.8 – Performed well across 3 levels of the minors in his first full season of pro ball, culminating with a 133 wRC+ at Double-A. Above average to plus potential in every category. ETA: 2021 Prime Projection: 96/25/87/.283/.351/.485/16

90) Clayton Kershaw LAD, LHP, 32.0 – Fastball velocity did not rebound to pre-2018 levels and actually lost another 0.9 MPH, but the slider is as good as ever. 2020 Projection: 14/3.38/1.09/188 in 180 IP

91) Noah Syndergaard NYM, RHP, 27.7 – Much improved changeup became his best secondary pitch but his slider took a step back, losing 2.2 MPH. 2020 Projection: 3.73/1.22/196 in 190 IP

92) Brandon Woodruff MIL, RHP, 27.2 – Third most valuable fastball in baseball behind only Cole and Flaherty. 2020 Projection: 11/3.74/1.20/190 in 165 IP

93) Jesus Luzardo OAK, LHP, 22.6 – Shoulder injury limited Luzardo to just 58 IP at a variety of levels (Rk, Hi-A, Triple-A, MLB playoffs), but he dominated at each stop with 3 plus pitches (mid 90’s fastball, curve, and change). He has a chance to be special, but with a career high of 109 IP, it remains to be seen if he can stay healthy and produce for 180+ IP. 2020 Projection: 10/3.68/1.19/160 in 142 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.39/1.11/213 in 183 IP

94) Julio Urias LAD, LHP, 23.8 – Announced that he will likely join the rotation in 2020. Ranked first overall in average exit velocity against at 83.2 MPH and fastball jumped 2.1 MPH to 95.2 MPH, including during the starts he made early in the season. 2020 Projection: 11/3.68/1.21/139 in 135 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.39/1.11/198 in 182 IP

95) Frankie Montas OAK, RHP, 27.0 – Found that legitimate third pitch by adding a splitter that he threw 18.2% of the time. With a plus fastball/slider combo already in tow, Montas broke out with a pitching line of 2.63/1.12/103/23 in 96 IP. 80-game PED suspension cut his season short, but he did return for 1 start in September with no noticeable performance decline. 2020 Projection: 13/3.64/1.21/185 in 170 IP

96) Gary Sanchez NYY, C, 27.4 – Elite power hitter and does it from the scarce catcher position. On the downside, catchers are always more banged up and at risk of shortened careers. It’s a give and take. 2020 Projection: 69/32/83/.252/.333/.520/0

97) Marcell Ozuna FA, OF, 29.5 – Low BABIP (.259) spoiled what could have been a huge season as Ozuna reached a career high 12 steals and 11.3% BB%. If he can repeat those gains in 2020, the upside is there for him to blow up. 2020 Projection: 82/31/93/.268/.332/.500/6

98) David Dahl COL, OF, 26.0 – Another season shortened by injury, this time by a high ankle sprain that ended his year in early August. .386 BABIP covered up a weak 110/28 K/BB in 100 games, but he displayed an above average power/speed combo and has the raw tools to take his game to the next level. 2020 Projection: 86/23/83/.271/.329/.480/9

99) Amed Rosario NYM, SS, 24.4 – Continues to get stronger, raising his exit velocity 1.9 MPH to a well above average 89.2 MPH, while maintaining his plus speed and good feel to hit. 91.2 MPH FB/LD exit velocity will have to improve in order to take the next step. 2020 Projection: 87/18/79/.283/.322/.446/22

100) Byron Buxton MIN, OF, 26.3 – In the midst of a mini breakout before a shoulder injury ended his season, which required labrum surgery in September with a 5-6 month timetable. The underlying skills (95 MPH FB/LD exit velo, 19.5 degree launch angle, and 30.3 foot per second sprint speed) are there to become a power/speed beast, even if it takes him into his late 20’s to truly put it all together. 2020 Projection: 83/23/76/.267/.321/.475/26

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)