Jefferson Rojas – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on November 25, 2024November 25, 2024 by Michael Halpern · 2 Comments

Chicago Cubs 2025 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

It’s all about the Cubbies on the Brick Wall today! I dive into their Top 11 Prospects, analyze their most interesting young MLB players, and then I jump off the Matt Shaw blurb to talk about how good the little man discount has been to me over the years in the Dynasty Strategy section. Like during the regular season, I will be posting a few articles a month for free here on Imaginary Brick Wall with the vast majority of the content over on the Patreon. This is one of those articles. Here is the Chicago Cubs 2025 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 75 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2025 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2024 TOP 322 PROSPECTS RANKS
-END OF SEASON 2024 438 DYNASTY RANKS
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS with full scouting reports and prime projections (a Top 100+ is coming later this off-season)
-2025 DEEP DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 Catchers
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: END OF SEASON MAILBAG!
-SPREADSHEETS
-OFF-SEASON CONTENT! – Dynasty Team Reports, Deep Positional Rankings, Predicting Future Prospect Lists, Fall/Winter League Updates, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks, Top 500+ Prospects Ranks, Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks & so much more!

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon (free ones listed in parenthesis)

Atlanta Braves—Baltimore Orioles—Cincinnati Reds–Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Detroit Tigers—Los Angeles Angels—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers (free)—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—Oakland Athletics—Philadelphia Phillies—Pittsburgh Pirates—San Diego Padres—Tampa Bay Rays—Washington Nationals (free)

Hitters

Pete Crow-Armstrong – CHC, OF, 23.0 – Pete Crow Armstrong’s power has been underrated from the time he was drafted. He was my #1 target in his 2020/21 FYPD class after getting drafted a ridiculous 19th overall, writing in his FYPD blurb, “Armstrong stands out for his plus speed, plus defense, and strong track record of hitting. Power hasn’t been a big part of his game, but he has recently added muscle onto his projectable 6’1” frame, and a 99 MPH exit velocity mark at a 2019 Perfect Game event is damn good. Armstrong is my favorite target in first year player drafts relative to consensus.” I’ve basically named him a target every 3 months since then, even ranking him within my Top 100 overall last off-season at #99. And in 2024, especially the 2nd half of 2024, we started to see the first buds of a breakout that could absolutely explode in 2025. He put up a 88.9/94.0 MPH AVG/FB EV on the season, which shows that power potential I saw 4 years ago wasn’t a mirage. And when it comes with a 17.2 degree launch, an elite 30.0 ft/sec sprint speed, and elite CF defense, you have the makings of an extremely exciting fantasy player. We saw that player in his final 65 games, slashing .267/.317/.457 with 9 homers, 11 steals, and a 21.8/6.9 K%/BB%. I ranked him 67th overall on the Top 75 Sneak Peek of the 2025 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon), but the reason why he isn’t ranked even higher is because he still does have some deficiencies in his game. His 70.6 MPH swing is below average, his 41.4% Chase% is extreme, and his 29.9% whiff% is well below average. That isn’t exactly my favorite trifecta of skills, but he’s still so young, I foresee all of those numbers improving. And focusing on what he doesn’t do well is silly when what he does do well is so insanely exciting. Put some respect on this man’s name. His name is Pete Crow Armstrong, not Pete Crow Armweak. – 2025 Projection: 82/18/71/.244/.312/.425/31 Prime Projection: 93/24/74/.259/.331/.446/44

Michael Busch – CHC, 1B, 27.4 – Busch is a mixed bag of things you really want to buy into, and things that make you hesitant to buy in too hard. On the positive side, his 11.2% Barrel%, 89.9/95.4 MPH AVG/FB EV, and 17.2 degree launch makes you think he can truly be a preeminent power hitter in this game. But those numbers only resulted in 21 homers in 152 games last year, and his expected homer totals were right in that area too, so he wasn’t really unlucky there. His below average 70.3 MPH swing it really the thing that makes me hesitant to start projecting perennial 30+ homer seasons. The true top power hitters in the game generally swing a much, much quicker bat, and while that bat speed doesn’t preclude him from hitting 30+, I think it does make mid 20 homer projections more reasonable moving forward, which would make him a good fantasy first baseman, but not a truly great one. And of course the most obvious downside is the swing and miss with a 28.6% K%, leading to a .248 BA and .217 xBA. I’m not expecting his BA to bottom out, but I think the risk is there. Add a star in OBP leagues as his plate approach is excellent with a 11.1% BB% and well above average 23.2% Chase%. 2025 Projection: 77/25/83/.244/.330/.458/2

Pitchers

Ben Brown – CHC, RHP, 25.7 – Brown is one of my top pitcher targets for 2025. I’ve been calling him a target for a few years now in that bucket of pitching prospect that I love to shop in (close to the majors, big stuff, upper minors production, moderate to little hype), and now that he’s proven it in the majors, he becomes a true 5 alarm target. And the best part is, even after he proved it in the majors, he’s still getting majorly underrated. He put up a 3.58 ERA with a 28.8/8.6 K%/BB% in 55.1 IP. A neck injury ended his season in June, but the expectation is for him to have a normal off-season. He throws gas with a 96.4 MPH fastball that was an above average pitch (although the underlying numbers weren’t as good). His curveball was amongst the very best in baseball with a 51% whiff% and .183 xwOBA. He performed better against righties than he did lefties, but even with just two pitches basically, he still put up an above average .304 wOBA vs lefties. He also threw a lesser used changeup, cutter, sinker and sweeper at Triple-A in 2023, so I don’t think he is locked in as a two pitch pitcher. The cutter in particular seems to have promise as a third pitch. Point being, even with two pitches I think he can be a high K, mid rotation starter, and if he can find that effective 3rd+ pitch, there could be an even higher level in here. He’s control over command, but it’s good to see the walk rate stay about average in his MLB debut. He might start the season in the bullpen depending on what Chicago does the rest of the off-season, but I don’t think Chicago has plans to ban him to the bullpen permanently. They used him as a starter last year and he was great, so it would make little sense for them not to give him a full shot in the rotation long term. I’m going after him. 2025 Projection: 8/3.79/1.23/150 in 130 IP

Shota Imanaga – CHC, LHP, 31.7 – It’s no secret that I enjoy a good victory lap like Wade Boggs on horseback taking a victory lap around Yankee Stadium after beating the Braves in the 1996 World Series. Like Boggs, I also eat chicken before I write every article, and I also drink 107 beers on a flight before going 2 for 3 with 2 doubles just hours later. Come to think of it, maybe that was CJ Abrams problem. Not that he partied until 8 am, but that he went 0 for 3 right after that. Dude, we all know that if you are going to be a rebel, you better produce. Maybe he did deserve that punishment after all ;). Now where was I? Oh yea, victory lapping. While I do believe in celebrating your hits, I also believe in taking the walk of shame for your misses, and finding lessons in who I consider to be my biggest miss, Shota Imanaga. I had Imanaga pegged as a good, but not great MLB pitcher, giving him a projection of 11/3.91/1.22/175 in 160 IP. He ended up going 15/2.91/1.02/174 in 173.1 IP. I believe where I went wrong was that I overrated fastball velocity, and while to my credit, the 91.7 MPH fastball actually didn’t miss that many bats (17.5% whiff%) or induce weak contact (91.2 MPH EV with .327 xwOBA), it was still a positive value pitch with a 52% usage rate, and it came with elite control, an elite secondary (splitter), a diverse pitch mix, and a history of ace production in the 2nd toughest league in the world. I shouldn’t have let a low 90’s fastball blind me to how good and established the rest of the profile was, and also to the fact that the fastball was still pretty good despite the low velocity. This wasn’t my only miss, but I believe that every other miss I had, my process was good and I don’t regret my take on them. Imanaga is the only one where I’m disappointed in my evaluation, and I will be taking those lessons with me headed into 2025, starting with properly ranking him for next season, which is in the near ace tier. – 2025 Projection: 13/3.28/1.06/182 in 175 IP

Bullpen

Porter Hodge – CHC, Closer, 24.1 – Hodge took over the closer job in late August and he ran with it, locking down 8 saves in his final 13 appearances. He was lights out when he got the call to the bigs in late May, putting up a 1.88 ERA with a 31.7/11.6 K%/BB% in 43 IP. The stuff is most certainly closer stuff with the best sweeper in baseball that put up a +11 Run Value (tied with Anthony Bender) with a 51.8% whiff%. The fastball sits 95.5 MPH and put up very good .298 xwOBA. Below average control is the only thing that can tank him, and while plenty of elite closers have below average control, there is still some risk there as we saw with Camilo Doval and Alexis Diaz last year. The Cubs might sign a vet to give Hodge competition, but as now, he’s the man, and he has the upside to be an impact fantasy closer. 2025 Projection: 4/3.41/1.18/77/29 saves in 63 IP

Chicago Cubs 2025 Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects Rankings

1) Matt Shaw – CHC, 3B/2B/SS, 23.4 – The little man discount never fails. Baseball scouts see a little man, and they immediately shave a few inches of projection right off the top. I don’t mind it, because it consistently creates excellent buying opportunities for the right players (see the Dynasty Strategy Section below for more thoughts on this), and Matt Shaw is definitely one of those right players. He went a little later than he should have in the real MLB Draft, then he went a little later than he should have in Dynasty First Year Player Drafts, and now he’s getting ranked a little later than he should be on prospect lists. He’s an elite prospect that gets ranked like a merely good one. He might only be 5’9”, but his bat packs a true punch, putting up an 89.3 MPH EV with a 14.6 degree launch in 35 games at Triple-A. He smoked 21 homers on the season in 121 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s not a pull machine, but a lot of these lift and pull machines put up some pretty low batting averages, and a profile like Shaw doesn’t need to only pull the ball. He can use his hard hit ability, plus speed (31 steals), and plus contact rates (18.2% K%) to do damage when he goes oppo. He also walks a ton with a 11.9% BB%, making him a likely top of the order bat. Don’t fall into the little man trap, Shaw is going to be a do everything fantasy terror when he gets his shot. I don’t know exactly how the chips are going to fall as to where he ends up on the diamond and when he gets his shot, but it will work itself out one way or the other. Shaw’s been a target for me from before his junior year of college, and he remains a target for me. 2025 Projection: 41/9/45/.256/.318/.419/12 Prime Projection: 96/23/83/.276/.348/.461/26

2) Kevin Alcantara – CHC, OF, 22.8 – The Forgotten Unicorn continues to fly just low enough under the radar to not have the hype explode, while continuing to perform very well and show off his truly special tools. He’s a still projectable 6’6”, 188 pounds with a double plus raw power/speed combo. He put up a 91 MPH EV at Triple-A with a 29.2 ft/sec sprint in the majors. And it’s not like he’s struggled in the minors at all, He’s actually been extremely good his entire career, never putting up a wRC+ under 123 at any stop other than when he was a 16 year old in rookie ball. This year he did it in the upper minors all season as a 21/22 year old, slashing .278/.353/.428 with 14 homers, 14 steals, and a 26.0/9.9 K%/BB% in 111 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. The cherry on top is that he’s a good CF, which could make a potent OF with PCA in center and Alcantara in a corner down the line. He’s not a finished product with hit tool risk and too many groundballs, but his hype should be so much higher than it is. Alcantara makes for a great upside target. 2025 Projection: 22/7/29/.229/.294/.407/6 Prime Projection: 79/23/78/.251/.328/.449/18

3) Cam Smith – CHC, 3B, 22.1 – Selected 14th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, the 6’3”, 224 pound Smith generates a tremendous amount of power with very little movement in his swing. It is quick, powerful and short to the ball. It is straight up one of the quietest swings from one of the biggest men I’ve ever seen. The swing is geared more for a line drive, all fields approach rather than pull and lift, which is why he didn’t put up the gaudy homer totals as some of his other college hitting brethren with only 16 homers in 66 games in the ACC. But he has the raw power to make that profile work, and the upside is that it can come with a high BA. We saw what this profile can look like at it’s best in his dominant pro debut, slashing .313/.396/.609 with 7 homers, 2 steals, and a 17.9/11.2 K%/BB% in 32 games split between Single-A, High-A, and Double-A. He put up a 122 wRC+ in 5 games at Double-A, so the profile was transferring to the upper minors, and he clearly had no problems ripping dingers to all fields with the wood bat. He very well might have the top hit/power combo in the FYPD class, and it’s why he ranked 7th overall (really 8th overall with Roki now in the top spot) in my End of Season 2025 Top 56 First Year Player Drafts Rankings (full Top 130 coming later this off-season). – 2025 Projection: 12/4/17/.247/.308/.412/1 Prime Projection: 84/24/89/.273/.340/.466/4

4) Cade Horton – CHC, RHP, 23.7 – Horton’s season ended after just 34.1 IP with a lat strain, and let’s hope that lat strain is what led to his terrible run at Triple-A. He put up a 7.50 ERA with a 27.2/13.6 K%/BB% in 18 IP. The fastball was down to 94.1 MPH. The good news is that the secondaries (changeup, curve, slider) still missed a ton of bats and induced weak contact, and he also pitched much better at Double-A with a 1.10 ERA and 29.0/3.2 K%/BB% in 16.1 IP. We can give him a pass for his performance at Triple-A due to the injury, but Tommy John surgery knocked out his entire 2021 season, so injuries are starting to become a concern. He’s never pitched more than 88.1 IP in a season, so it’s a question if he can truly put up a full starter’s workload year after year, and also what level of stuff he can hold over those innings. His value took a hit this year, but it would be too risk averse to completely tank his value. I’m holding relatively strong. 2025 Projection: 4/4.13/1.32/74 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.68/1.19/163 in 150 IP

5) Moises Ballesteros – CHC, C, 21.5 – Ballesteros is a below average defensive catcher which makes it unclear if he will end up sticking behind the plate. He’s only 21 years old, so maybe he’ll improve, and maybe Chicago will be fine with his below average defense because they are not strong at catcher in both the majors and the minors. Even if Ballesteros moves off catcher to 1B/DH, he definitely has the bat to clear that high bar. He posseses one of the best hit/power combos in the minors, slashing .289/.354/.471 with 19 homers, 1 steal, and a 18.3/8.9 K%/BB% in 124 games split between Double-A (154 wRC+) and Triple-A (106 wRC+). And keep in mind he did that as a 20 year old. He started to lift and pull the ball more at Triple-A, which spiked his K rate a bit, but we’ll take that tradeoff for more dingers. Lack of defensive value can certainly end up a real issue if his bat ends up more above average than great, but Chicago has every incentive for him to stick behind the plate, so I’m leaning he gets a real shot there. He ranked 15th overall on the 2025 Deep Dynasty Baseball Positional Rankings: Top 78 Catchers (Patreon). – 2025 Projection: 33/9/39/.258/.307/.420/1 Prime Projection: 73/24/84/.275/.332/.457/2

6) Owen Caissie – CHC, OF, 22.9 – Caissie is a super easy evaluation as a low BA, high OBP slugger, but he really doesn’t hit as many homers as you would think with 19 homers in 127 games at Triple-A. His 33.4% FB% is on the low side for a slugger, which is what is holding down the homer totals. It’s helping his BA, hitting .278, but with a 28.4% K% (which is a career best), he’s not going to hit for a high BA in the majors regardless. There could be a scenario where the strikeout rate is hovering around 30% in the majors with a launch that really isn’t all that high, which could result is some pretty mediocre numbers. I mainly bring this up because it’s the most interesting thing about projecting his future value, but when you pan out for the big picture, he’s a powerful and athletic 6’3”, 190 pounds with current plus power and possibly more coming down the line. He’ll also chip in with steals, nabbing 11 bags. And add two stars in OBP leagues with a 12.9% BB%. I don’t want to lose the forest through the trees by slicing and dicing the numbers too much, so I’m still projecting his as a low BA, high OBP slugger no matter how you slice it. There is a short term logjam for playing time, but long term I don’t see many roadblocks. 2025 Projection: 19/6/25/.227/.303/.420/2 Prime Projection: 78/28/91/.246/.335/.480/7

7) James Triantos – CHC, 2B, 22.2 – Triantos ran a ton in 2024, stealing 47 bags in 115 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. I’m leading with that because it gives his profile an upside boost which he needed for fantasy. The contact rates have consistently ranged from plus to elite throughout his minor league career, putting up an 11.1 K% this season, but both the game power and raw power are well below average. He put up a 85.9 MPH EV at Triple-A with a 2 degree launch. He doesn’t walk much with a 5.6% BB%, which isn’t great for his chances to hit at the top of the lineup, and he’s not really an asset on defense as a solid 2B. The hit/speed combo is certainly good enough to make him a good fantasy prospect, but lack of impact, OBP and defense keeps him as more of a Top 150 prospect for me. 2025 Projection: 19/2/11/.260/.303/.365/7 Prime Projection: 81/11/52/.282/.328/.408/26

8) Alexander Canario – CHC, OF, 24.11 – I was always visually amazed when watching Canario swing, writing, “he swings the bat like it’s a bazooka with an extreme all or nothing approach,” in last year’s Top 1,000 writeup, and now with bat speed tracking, we saw Canario put up an eye poppingly elite 78 MPH swing. It was in a small sample (40 swings), but that was 4th best in all of baseball. My eyes certainly weren’t deceiving me, and it’s what keeps Canario interesting to me for fantasy. He’s going to rip dingers if he gets playing time, like he did at Triple-A with 18 homers and a 16.8% Barrel% in 64 games. He also keeps producing in the majors in small samples (despite an extremely high K%) with a 148 wRC+ in 17 PA in 2023 and a 128 wRC+ in 28 PA in 2024. The swing is on the long side and he strikes out a ton (30.4% K% at Triple-A), so the batting average is a major risk, and it may prevent him from ever really truly locking down a full time job, but that power upside is big enough to crack this list. 2025 Projection: 28/10/37/.223/.301/.438/2 Prime Projection: 64/25/78/.235/.314/.469/6

9) Jefferson Rojas – CHC, SS, 19.11 – I was a bit lower on Rojas than consensus last off-season, because I just didn’t see big enough tools to get really excited about him for fantasy, and that played out in 2024 with a mediocre season. He hit 6 homers with 21 steals (in 29 attempts) and a 88 wRC+ in 96 games at High-A. We have to grade on a curve because he was young for the level, and the 15.3% K% was excellent, so it’s not like it was a terrible year or anything, it just displayed that he’s a better real life prospect than a fantasy one. He can play SS and he gets the ball on the ball, which gives him a very high floor, but the power/speed combo projects to be moderate at best. He’s a solid fantasy prospect, but not a truly coveted one at the moment. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 78/17/71/.273/.326/.421/15

10) Jonathon Long – CHI, 1B, 23.2 – I’m a hawk for great pro debuts coming right out of the draft, and Long’s great pro debut in 2023 certainly got my attention. Despite getting picked 266th overall as a college bat (he signed for slot value, so there were no complicating signing bonus factors), I messed around and placed Long on my Top 1,000 Rankings, writing in part, “Long makes for an interesting late round target in deeper leagues … He has a very quick and powerful swing that looks relatively legit to me, and he hits the ball hard. Obviously don’t expect a league winner, but I think he’s a real prospect.” He then went out and proved in 2024 that he is most certainly a legit prospect, to say the least. He slashed .340/.455/.528 with 7 homers and a 16.5/17.5 K%/BB% in 46 games after getting the call to Double-A. He then went to the AFL and obliterated the league with a 1.088 OPS and 6 homers in 18 games. He’s still a mostly 1B prospect (he can play some 3B too) whose reasonable projection is more of a good bat than a great one, so he’s still more of a deeper league guy, but he most certainly backed up that great pro debut. He’s a close to the majors bat who can make a fantasy impact if he can work his way into the lineup. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 68/20/76/.257/.326/.441/1

11) Brandon Birdsell – CHC, RHP, 25.0 – Birdsell is certainly in the bucket of pitching prospect I like to shop in that I talked about in the Ben Brown blurb, but his profile reminds me a bit of Adam Mazur’s, who burned me this season, so I’m going to stay restrained in my expectations for Birdsell. Like Mazur, he has plus control of a 95 MPH fastball that doesn’t have a great movement profile, although Birdsell’s fastball missed considerably more bats at Triple-A than Mazur’s did. And like Mazur he has an above average slider as his best secondary to go along with a starter’s pitch mix. It all resulted in a 3.91 ERA with a 23.5/5.4 K%/BB% in 135.2 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A. Like Mazur, I’m leaning towards more of a #4 starter as a reasonable upside projection for Birdsell. The deeper the league, the more value he has. 2025 Projection: 2/4.36/1.34/56 in 70 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.07/1.25/138 in 150 IP

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Jumping off from the Matt Shaw blurb, the little man discount has been one of the most profitable discounts over the years in Dynasty Baseball. I get it, because when you are watching a prospect, the ones who are massive human beings with insane tools are so very easy to identify and drool over. And I sure as hell love those unicorns as well (see my Kevin Alcantara blurb), but that doesn’t mean you should discount the truly electric little guys. Sure, if the EV data doesn’t back them up, discount away, but when the EV data does back them up, there is no reason to be so skeptical. Little man Corbin Carroll (5’10”) was my 3rd ranked FYPD prospect in his draft year because his EV data was impressive, and he still dropped to 16th overall in the draft (Shaw dropped to 13th overall). I remember when Carson Cistulli, formerly of Fangraphs, was extolling the virtues of the 5’9” Mookie Betts from before I was writing when nobody else was. The 5’9” Jose Ramirez was a target of mine when I was just playing the game of dynasty, not writing yet, and sure I didn’t keep him after his lackluster 2015 season, missing out the beginning of his breakout in 2016, but clearly I was onto something. And no, throwing Ramirez back into the player pool before his breakout definitely doesn’t still eat at me almost 10 years later. Definitely not ;). Back to current day, Jett Williams is another worthy little man discount pick, as is Slade Caldwell in this year’s first year player draft. It’s the gift that keeps on giving, and until the right little men start getting valued correctly, I’ll keep on scooping those little cuties up at that discounted price.

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon (free ones listed in parenthesis)

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 75 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2025 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2024 TOP 322 PROSPECTS RANKS
-END OF SEASON 2024 438 DYNASTY RANKS
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS with full scouting reports and prime projections (a Top 100+ is coming later this off-season)
-2025 DEEP DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 Catchers
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: END OF SEASON MAILBAG!
-SPREADSHEETS
-OFF-SEASON CONTENT! – Dynasty Team Reports (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk) , Deep Positional Rankings, Predicting Future Prospect Lists, Fall/Winter League Updates, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks, Top 500+ Prospects Ranks, Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks & so much more!

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

Posted on November 20, 2023November 27, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Chicago Cubs 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I like to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team, and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Chicago Cubs 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 137 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: TOP 78 C
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100+ COMING LATER IN THE OFF-SEASON)
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Baltimore Orioles (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

Hitters

Cody Bellinger FRA, OF/1B, 28.9 – Bellinger massively improved his contact rates with a career best 15.6% K% (27.3% in 2022) and career best 20.1% whiff% (27.2% in 2022). It led to a major bounce back season, slashing .307/.356/.525 with 26 homers, 20 steals, and a 15.6%/7.2% K%/BB% in 130 games. It wasn’t only the improved contact rates, he should also thank MLB for the juicier balls as his lowly 91 MPH FB/LD EV with a 17.2 degree launch likely wouldn’t have gotten the job done in 2022 with the dead balls. His 20 steals were a career high (thank you new rules) and his .319 BABIP was a career high (thank you no shift). Was Bellinger on the rules committee this off-season? He was certainly on the lucky side with a .370 wOBA vs. .331 xwOBA, but as long as the ball (see strategy section below) and rules stay the same, his contact/speed/lift profile should provide very nice fantasy numbers. 2024 Projection: 84/28/91/.268/.327/.470/17

Christopher Morel CHC, OF, 24.10 – I was hyping up Morel in these here Imaginary pages at this time last year, ranking him 189th on the 2023 Top 1,000, and while you are still probably unsure what to think of him one year later, you have to be relatively satisfied at what he provided your fantasy team considering his very reasonable cost. He jacked 26 homers with 6 steals and a .247 BA in 107 games. It was good for a 119 wRC+ and a full-season pace of about 35+ homers and 10 steals. He absolutely pummeled the ball with a 92.1/97.1 MPH AVG/FB EV, he has plus speed with a 28.6 ft/sec sprint (although he didn’t run as much as I thought he would), and he has average walk rates with a 8.4% BB%. But the reason we are still unsure of him, is because he didn’t improve enough on his two biggest weaknesses, contact and defense. He still had a cover your eyes 37% whiff% with a 31% K%, and he was a terrible defender with a negative 12.9 Fangraphs defensive value. Chicago announced they were going to try him at 1B this off-season, but at this point, DH is his most likely “position.” I still love the fantasy upside, and am encouraged that he managed a solid 22% K% to close out the season in September, but mostly because of the playing time concerns, I have to admit I’m not quite as high on him this off-season as I was last off-season. The moves Chicago makes this off-season could swing his playing time projections in either direction. 2024 Projection: 68/25/76/.241/.316/.478/10

Pitchers

Justin Steele CHC, LHP, 28.9 – Steele worries me a little. He’s a two pitch pitcher and neither pitch is really dominant. The fastball sits only 91.8 MPH and it put up a solid but unspectacular .326 xwOBA and 20.3% whiff%. The slider put up a pretty mediocre 31.1% whiff%, and while it induced weak contact with a 86.6 MPH EV against, I prefer my sliders to miss bats. His control took a monster step forward with a 5% BB%, but he’s never shown that level of control in the past, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see that regress a bit in 2024. His ERA was also much better in the 1st half (2.56) than the 2nd half (3.62). I say all of this just to add some caution, because not only do I still like him, I was actually lightly touting him last off-season, writing in his Top 1,000 blurb, “Steele’s the type you put a star next to their name as you start to fill out of the back half of your fantasy rotation.” He induces weak contact, he keeps the ball in the ballpark, he has about average whiff rates, and his control took a big step forward. He’s a good pitcher, just don’t be surprised if he ends up more above average than truly standout in 2024. 2024 Projection: 13/3.62/1.21/175 in 170 IP

Jordan Wicks CHC, LHP, 24.7 – This section is usually reserved for non prospects, but because Wicks didn’t crack the Top 10 and he’s one of Chicago’s most interesting pitchers, I decided to break the rules and include him here. I’m a rebel that can’t be tamed. Wicks is the type of safety over upside prospect that is more valuable in deeper leagues, but it’s not like there are no skills to get excited about. He understands the art of pitching with a 6 pitch mix, he has a legitimate plus offering in his changeup, and he keeps the ball on the ground with 3 of his pitches generating negative launch angles (sinker, cutter, curve). He had a 3.55 ERA with a 26.5%/8.6% K%/BB% in 91.1 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A, and then he held his own in the majors with a 4.41 ERA (4.18 xERA) and 16.3%/7.5% K%/BB% in 34.2 IP. It’s likely #4 starter upside with only 92.1 MPH heat and average control, but he’s worth a spot in the back of your fantasy rotation even in shallower leagues. 2024 Projection: 9/4.22/1.31/136 in 150 IP

Bullpen

Adbert Alzolay CHC, Closer, 29.1 – Alzolay took over Chicago’s closer job in mid June and he never gave it back. He put up a 2.67 ERA with a 26.5%/5.1% K%/BB% and 22 saves in 64 IP on the season. He leads with the plus slider which he threw 45.1% of the time and put up a 40.6% whiff% on the pitch. He backs that up with 3 different fastballs (95.3 MPH 4-seamer, 95.3 MPH sinker, 91.1 MPH cutter). He got shut down for 3 weeks in September with a forearm injury, but he returned for one outing on September 29th and his velocity was fine, so I wouldn’t be concerned. The modest strikeout rate has him sitting in the 3rd tier of closers (there are so many stud closers), but his elite control should mitigate that with a strong WHIP, and there is potentially more K’s in the tank. 2024 Projection: 3/3.36/1.09/71/30 saves in 65 IP

Chicago Cubs Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 22.0 – I’ve been all in on Pete Crow since before he was drafted, and he finally fulfilled his elite prospect destiny in 2023. The power took yet another step forward with him jacking 20 homers in 107 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s not an EV masher, but he doesn’t hit the ball weakly either, and his high launch will ensure he gets the most out of his still growing raw power. The CF defense and speed are elite with a 29.9 ft/sec sprint speed and 37 steals. There is bit more swing and miss than optimal with a 26% K%, but he’s always generally had a good feel to hit, and he’s never had low BA’s in the minors, so I’m not overly concerned about it. Armstrong has 20/40 written all over him. 2024 Projection: 49/11/36/.241/.310/.407/23 Prime Projection: 91/22/76/.257/.334/.439/34

2) Matt Shaw CHC, 2B/SS, 22.5 – Selected 13th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Shaw is only 5’11”, but he’s a thick dude who has real power, and he combines that with above average speed and excellent base stealing skills. He has that little man leg kick (which Chicago toned down a hair in pro ball) that I absolutely love in the mold of a Alex Bregman, Spencer Steer, and Zach Neto. It seems to be working for these slightly undersized guys, and it’s certainly working for Shaw. He smashed 24 homers with 18 steals and a 1.142 OPS in 62 Big Ten games. He also impressed in the wood bat Cape Cod League with 5 homers, 21 steals, and a 1.006 OPS in 36 games. He then ran through pro ball like it was nothing, finishing the year at Double-A slashing .292/.329/.523 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 17.1%/4.3% K%/BB% in 15 games at the level. Shaw was my top draft target pre-draft (I actually pointed out Shaw as my top target back in February before the season even started), but now that he absolutely blew up in pro ball, there is no chance you get a great value on him. He’s worth his very high draft price though. 2024 Projection: 36/10/43/.253/.312/.432/11 Prime Projection: 85/25/89/.271/.337/.469/21

3) Cade Horton CHC, RHP, 22.7 – Horton was a star quarterback in high school, and his pithing delivery very much looks like he’s throwing a football with a short arm action thrown from around his ear. That type of arm action tends to produce good spin rates, and Horton can mostly certainly spin a potentially double slider that falls completely off the table. The plus fastball has good movement too and sits mid 90’s. He also mixes in a changeup and curveball that have above average potential. He used that plus stuff to obliterate pro ball in his debut with a 2.65 ERA and 33.5%/7.7% K%/BB% in 88.1 IP split between 3 levels (A, A+, AA). The K/BB numbers dropped a bit when he got to Double-A with a 28.4%/10.1% K%/BB% in 27 IP, but he still crushed the level with a 1.33 ERA. He only averaged around 4 inning outings and Chicago was very careful with him in general as this was truly his first fully healthy season coming off Tommy John surgery in 2021. He still has to prove he can handle a full MLB starter’s workload while maintaining his stuff and staying healthy, but he’s on the right track to doing that. I would put high end #2 starter upside on him. 2024 Projection: 2/3.95/1.31/42 in 40 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.48/1.17/178 in 160 IP

4) Kevin Alcantara CHC, OF, 21.8 – If you want to invest in one of those unicorn baseball talents in the mold of a Elly De La Cruz and James Wood, but don’t want to pay unicorn prices, Alcantara is the guy for you. He’s an elite athlete at 6’6”, 188 pounds with a plus power/speed combo and blink of an eye bat speed. He scuffled to start the season with a .604 OPS in his first 35 games, but he was en fuego after that, slashing .329/.401/.549 with 11 homers, 5 steals, and a 23.9%/10.7% K%/BB% in his final 71 games at mostly High-A. He closed out the regular season at Double-A where he put up a 130 wRC+ in 5 games, and then went to the AFL where he put up a .865 OPS in 21 games. The hit tool and plate approach still need continued refinement, but prospect rankers seem far too hesitant on shooting such a uniquely talented player up rankings. He should be in unanimous near elite prospect range, and he mostly sits in good but not great prospect range. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 80/26/85/.257/.333/.467/16

5) Owen Caissie CHC, OF, 21.9 – Chicago continued to be aggressive with Caissie’s assignments, sending the 20 year old to Double-A, which usually tells you what an organization thinks about a player. They love Caissie, and he rewarded their love with a monster season. He stared the Southern League pre-tacked ball in the eye and didn’t blink with a 144 wRC+, .918 OPS, and 22 homers in 120 games. Well, maybe he blinked, as the 33.9% K% in the 1st half was much higher than his 27.7% K% in the 2nd half. It got all the way down to 21.7% in his final 21 games, and considering how young he was for the level, I wouldn’t be extra concerned about his hit tool any more than your average high walk rate (14.4% K%), low BA slugger. The raw power is monstrous and he’s a relatively good athlete too. He’s one of the premier power hitting prospects in baseball. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 82/31/92/.248/.339/.492/5

6) Ben Brown CHC, RHP, 24.7 – If you can buy low on Brown’s 5.33 ERA and 15.8% BB% in 72.2 IP at Triple-A I would be all over it. He had a 7.8% BB% in 20 IP at Double-A to start the year, and he had a 9.5% BB% at Double-A last year, so the Triple-A automated strike zone made his merely below average control look cartoonishly bad. He has legitimate top of the rotation stuff with 3 potentially plus pitches (mid 90’s fastball, curveball, slider) and all of them can look pretty damn similar until they get about halfway to the plate. He’s a nightmare to face at 6’6”, 210 pounds and it resulted in a 32.6% K% on the season in 92.2 IP. He missed all of August with a lat injury, and he pitched out of the bullpen when he returned in September, which does hint at some bullpen risk, but I’m looking at Chicago’s rotation, and they would be silly to not give this stud every chance to stick in the rotation. I really, really like Brown. 2024 Projection: 4/4.18/1.35/83 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.82/1.27/175 in 150 IP

7) Moises Ballesteros CHC, C, 20.4 – Here is what I wrote about Bellesteros, in part, on my 2023 Top 1,000, “Most of the 2022 catcher breakouts are getting the full hype treatment, but Ballesteros is just chillin in corner waiting to get his fair due … The other catcher breakouts overshadowing Ballesteros’ impressive season creates a buying opportunity, making him one of my top prospect catcher targets for 2023.” … I would call Ballesteros’ great 2023 season a breakout, but he already broke out in 2022, so all the hype on him this year is just other people starting to notice. He destroyed the age appropriate Single-A with a 142 wRC+ and then went to High-A and put up a 128 wRC+. He did it on the back of a plus plate approach (15.8%/12.8% K%/BB%) and above average power (14 homers). The profile might be a tad better for real life than fantasy, and he’s starting to get valued correctly, but I’m still in on Ballesteros at his fair value. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 69/22/73/.271/.342/.440/2

8) Alexander Canario CHC, OF, 23.11 – Canario returned from ankle and shoulder surgeries in mid June, and by the time he got back to Triple-A he looked mostly like himself, slashing .276/.342/.524 with 8 homers and a 28%/9.3% K%/BB% in 36 games. He swings the bat like it’s a bazooka with an extreme all or nothing approach, so he’ll easily pop 30+ homers if the hit tool doesn’t completely tank him, and it took him only 17 PA to hit his first major league grand slam. The part that didn’t come back was his speed with only 2 steals and 25.8 ft/sec sprint speed in his MLB debut, albeit in such a small sample I wouldn’t give it too much weight, and he was also just coming back from two major surgeries. He’ll have to earn his playing time every step of the way, and the hit tool is in the major danger zone, but his explosive power is worth taking a shot on. 2024 Projection: 22/8/29/.221/.292/.423/2 Prime Projection: 66/28/79/.237/.312/.466/7

9) Jackson Ferris CHC, LHP, 20.3 – Ferris is a big, slinging lefty at 6’4”, 195 pound lefty with a plus mid 90’s fastball that absolutely explodes out of his hand. He combines the heat with a two potentially plus breakers (slider, curve), and a lesser used, developing changeup. He dominated Single-A hitters with a 3.38 ERA and 32.5% K% in 56 IP, and while he did it in mostly short outings, he was up to 5 IP a couple times towards the end of the season. Along with staying healthy and building up innings, the biggest issue will be his control. He had a 13.9% BB% and he doesn’t exactly have the most repeatable delivery. There is elite pitching prospect upside with control gains and continued refinement, but there is also bullpen risk. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 11/3.77/1.32/185 in 160 IP

10) Jefferson Rojas CHC, 2B/SS, 18.11 – If Triantos was a better defensive player, he would have likely taken this 10th spot, but having a player take up a roster spot on your fantasy team for a few years while they slowly work their way into more playing time can be a pain in the ass. And I’m not sure Triantos’ upside is worth the defensive risk. Enter Jefferson Rojas. Rojas was a barely 18 year old in full season ball and he more than held his own, slashing .268/.345/.404 with 7 homers, 13 steals, and a 19.9%/7.5% K%/BB% in 70 games at Single-A. His tools don’t necessarily jump out at you at 5’10”, but he’s the type to do everything pretty well on a baseball field (hit, power, speed, defense, arm). Taking into account his excellent age to level production (119 wRC+), you can probably tack on a tick more upside to project out a potentially above average across the board player. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 83/21/76/.276/.338/.441/15

Just Missed

11) James Triantos CHC, 2B, 21.2

12) Jordan Wicks CHC, LHP, 24.7 – See above

13) Matt Mervis CHC, 1B, 26.0

14) Brennen Davis CHC, OF, 24.5

15) Haydn McGeary CHC, 1B, 24.6

16) Michael Arias CHC, RHP, 22.5

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Jumping off from the Bellinger blurb, MLB changes the baseball every damn year, and I’m not even 100% sure they are truly in complete control of every change, as my understanding is that they manufacture new balls for every season. The juicier 2023 ball allowed mediocre exit velocity bats to come alive and be impact MLB hitters, but those type of hitters hold more risk coming into 2024 because we can’t be sure how the ball will play until we actually see it. The 2022 ball killed those guys. Big EV hitters are much more ball proof than low EV hitters. Everybody seemed to love the way the game was played in 2023, fans and baseball executives alike, so I don’t see why they would intentionally change the juiciness of the ball (I know they have experimented with tackier balls too, which is an entirely other discussion), but I’m not sure how it can’t be in the back of our minds while valuing players for next season.

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)