Jonatan Clase – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on May 1, 2023May 5, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/1/23)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/1/23):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 433 APRIL DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 324 APRIL PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (4/28/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG!
-PREDICTING THE 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECTS RANKS
-7 EARLY SEASON DYNASTY STRATEGIES AND THOUGHTS

Carlos Jorge CIN, 2B, 19.7 – The little man discount is one of the most reliable discounts in prospecting, and there is a small army of little prospects ready to overthrow the Heightriarchy. The 5’10”, 160 pound Jorge is leading the charge after a huge day at the dish yesterday, going 4 for 7 with a double, homer, steal, and 0/1 K/BB in a doubleheader. He’s now slashing .323/.408/.532 with 2 homers, 5 steals, and a 25.4%/11.3% K%/BB% in 18 games at Single-A. He’s never put up a wRC+ under 151 or had an OBP under .400 in his 3 year career, but because he’s not 6’3”, he immediately gets discounted. Jose Ramirez, Mookie Betts, Wander Franco, Corbin Carroll, Cedric Mullins, Francisco Lindor, Randy Arozarena, Ozzie Albies, Jose Altuve, and many more have all proven you don’t have to be 6 feet or over to be an elite MLB player. Down with the Heightriarchy.

Luisangel Acuna TEX, SS/2B, 21.1 – Not even his older brother, Ronald, could protect Luisangel from the little guy bullying that he’s had to face his entire career on prospect lists. The 5’8” Acuna stole 3 bags yesterday, and he’s been handling his business at Double-A all year, slashing .319/.369/.436 with 1 homer, 10 steals, and a 20.2%/7.7% K%/BB% in 21 games. The power hasn’t come yet, but keeping that K rate in check is huge to see, and he’s a base stealing machine.

Jonatan Clase SEA, OF, 20.11 – The 5’9”, 150 pound Clase is trying to shatter that glass ceiling with Jorge and Acuna. He went 1 for 4 with a steal and 1/2 K/BB yesterday and is now slashing .337/.455/.723 with 7 homers, 16 steals, and a 26.7%/16.8% K%/BB% in 20 games at High-A. Acuna, Jorge, and Clase were all named targets for me this off-season because I don’t see height. Clase cracked my Top 100 in the Updated Top 324 Dynasty Prospects Rankings that dropped last week on my Patreon.

Termarr Johnson PIT, 2B/SS, 18.11 – The 5’8”, 175 pound Johnson actually did get the respect he deserved in prospect rankings, but I was actually a little skeptical of how good that hit tool really was, predicting in the Predicting the Top 50 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings that “Johnson’s hit tool at Single-A won’t be as good as the hype.” He went 1 for 3 with a 2/0 K/BB yesterday and now has a 41.2% K% and .214 BA in 5 games. It’s still a super super small sample, and I still love him even if I do think the hit tool was maybe a little overhyped, but the slow start does play into my fears from the off-season.

Harry Ford SEA, C, 20.1 – The 5’10” Ford might not be tall, but he is a built like a tank, and he’s hitting like a tank. He went 2 for 6 with a double yesterday and is now slashing .282/.453/.493 with 3 homers, 5 steals, and a 18.9%/23.2% K%/BB% in 19 games at High-A. This coming off his great WBC for Great Britain which nearly got him knighted. He’s splitting his time between catcher and DH, and at this point, I almost hope he gets moved off catcher to let his bat shine. He has the speed and athleticism to play elsewhere.

Adael Amador COL, SS, 20.1 – Amador feels like he is part of the little man brigade, but he actually checks in at 6’0” on the dot. He got a late start to the season, but he’s starting to cook after drilling his first 2 homers of the year at High-A in 11 games. His elite contact rates have transferred to the level with a 11.3% K%, and so has his speed with 4 steals, but his high walk rates haven’t yet with a 3.8% BB%. His 56.8% GB% is probably too high to ever be a true power hitter, but he’s a high probability big leaguer with a strong across the board profile.

Denzel Clarke OAK, OF, 23.0 – Forget everything I just said about height. Now this is what a ballplayer is supposed to look like at 6’5”, 220 pounds with towering power and elite athleticism. This is the scout’s dream. Clark debuted on April 25th at Double-A and has done nothing but rake. He homered yesterday on a 3 for 5 day and now has 4 homers with a 372 wRC+ in 4 games. Most importantly, the K rate has been solid with a 26.3%/15.8% K%/BB%. If he can maintain even a below average K rate, oh boy, because this is a huge man with huge talent and nothing but opportunity in Oakland, er, Las Vegas.

Taj Bradley TBR, RHP, 22.0 – 1 IP, 5 hits, 8 ER, 2/2 K/BB at Triple-A. Tampa’s front office are either magic yogi’s who can see into the future and demoted Bradley before he could have this blow up in the majors. Or they are humans who undeservedly sent a kid down who was killing it in the majors, and being yanked around like that messed with his performance. I choose to believe it is the former.

Logan Allen CLE, LHP, 24.7 – 5 IP, 4 hits, 2 ER, 8/2 K/BB vs. BOS. The fastball sat 91.9 MPH and he induced tons of weak contact with a 85.9 EV against. Allen has pitched to ace levels in his MLB debut with a 2.45 ERA and 35.6%/6.7% K%/BB%, but there are signs he is pitching above his head. The 28.7% whiff% is not as big (although still good) and the 4.54 xERA is much higher than the ERA. He also didn’t display this level of control in his minor league career. Don’t get me wrong, it’s still a super encouraging MLB debut, but I wouldn’t expect him to keep it up to this level.

Nick Frasso LAD, RHP, 24.5 – 4 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 4/2 K/BB at Double-A. LA’s pitching logjam be damned, Frasso is one of my favorite pitching targets in the minors. He now has a 1.23 ERA with a 34.9%/5.8% K%/BB% in 22 IP. He has a nasty, plus 3 pitch mix and he’s like a lefty with a funky delivery, expect he throws righty, if you know what I mean. There is certainly risk he ends up in the pen because of circumstances, injury risk, and lack of innings in his career, but I just can’t ignore how high his upside is. I named him a target in my Top Dynasty Baseball Targets that dropped on Friday on the Patreon.

Rayne Doncon LAD, 2B/SS, 19.7 – Doncon went 4 for 4 with a double, steal, and a 430 foot bomb. He’s now getting into position to truly explode up rankings, slashing .262/.344/.464 with 5 homers, 2 steals, and a 25%/11.5% K%/BB% in 20 games. He has an explosive swing that screams big time power and has shown a good feel to hit his entire career. Now is the time to get in on him if you haven’t already.

Elijah Green WAS, OF, 19.4 – Elly 2.0 has arrived. Green smashed a homer in back to back games for his first 2 of the year to go along with 8 steals and a 48.1% K% in 17 games at Single-A. He’s even rawer than we expected, but the talent is so huge it’s worth being patient for the hit tool to come around.

Samuel Zavala SDP, OF, 18.9 – Zavala broke out of his early season slump in a huge way, going 4 for 5 with a homer and a steal. All of a sudden his wRC+ is up to 106 as an 18 year old in 18 games at Single-A. It’s also a reminder of how we are still in the small sample size part of the season. One big game can take a guy from struggling hard, to being an above average hitter overnight. He’s still the phenom we thought he was.

Cam Collier CIN, 3B, 18.5 – Speaking of 18 year olds performing above average in full season ball, Collier ripped his first homer at the level on a 2 for 8 day to bring his season wRC+ up to 116 in 14 games. The 26.7% K% is a tad higher than optimal, and so is his 58.6% GB%, so while he’s not going full breakout, he’s proving his FYPD hype was deserved.

Colin Barber HOU, OF, 22.4 – Just call him high cholesterol, because Barber is the quietest killer in the minor leagues. He cracked his 2nd homer in 15 games at Double-A to bring his season wRC+ up to 145. Also, just look at his man’s quads. If this was fantasy football twitter, our heads would be exploding.

Tyler Locklear SEA, 1B, 22.5 – Locklear was drafted 58th overall as a bat first prospect, and that bat is rolling right through the lower minors after he cracked 2 homers yesterday. He has 4 homers with a 21.%/9.6% K%/BB% and 146 wRC+ in 20 games at High-A. He’s played exclusively 1B this year, so the bat will have to hit it’s ceiling to get playing time in the majors. I think the bat is real, but I probably wouldn’t get too excited until he’s doing it in the upper minors.

Cayden Wallace KC, 3B, 21.9 – Wallace went 2 for 8 with a dinger last night, and he’s another moderately hyped 2nd round pick who is handling his business at High-A, slashing .306/.414/.542 with 3 homers, 3 steals, and a 20.7%/14.9% K%/BB% in 20 games. Again, doing it at High-A doesn’t truly explode their ranking, but they are trending up and they should get the chance to prove themselves at Double-A in the not too distant future.

Jonny DeLuca LAD, OF, 24.9 – DeLuca was one of the many big risers in the Updated Top 324 Prospect Rankings, and he’s not slowing down after going 3 for 5 with his 6th homer in 20 games at Double-A. He could be that next sneaky, older prospect that comes out of nowhere for the Dodgers.

Daylen Lile WAS, OF, 20.4 – The 47th overall pick in the 2021 Draft, Lile missed all of 2022 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but I kept the faith on him just barely by ranking him 1,012 overall on the off-season Top 1,000. I also gave you a heads up that he looked pretty good in his spring debut. That faith has been rewarded after he went 3 for 5 with a homer yesterday. He’s now slashing .333/.409/.632 with 3 homers, 5 steals, and a 19.7%/10.6% K%/BB% in 14 games at Single-A. He’s 20 at Single-A, but we can give him a pass for that because of the missed development time. Now is probably the time to get in on him.

Darell Hernaiz OAK, SS/2B/3B, 21.8 – Oakland was happy to scoop Hernaiz off the back of the overstuffed middle infield prospect Orioles truck, and he’s delivering after going 3 for 5 with a dinger last night. He’s slashing .313/.366/.453 with 2 homers, 5 steals, and a 20.8%/8.3% K%/BB% as a 21 year old at Double-A. Oakland is the perfect spot for him with playing time galore available.

Kyle Harrison SFG, LHP, 21.8 – 3.2 IP, 0 hits, 1 ER, 7/4 K/BB at Triple-A. Harrison has more walks than innings pitched, and not by a little either with 21 walks in 15.2 IP. That is extreme to say the least. The stuff is so nasty it has still resulted in only a 4.02 ERA and 35.1% K%, and 15.2 IP is still a small sample. His value is dropping because the risk is getting even higher, but in general, he is a hold for me. Let’s see if he can work through these early season control problems, as he just needs to maintain below average control to thrive.

Carson Whisenhunt SFG, LHP, 22.5 – Whisenhunt got the call to High-A and was lights out, going 4 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 6/0 K/BB. The fastball was sitting in the mid 90’s and the changeup was nasty as usual. Here are the highlights from his start. The breaking ball can definitely look a little dinky, and it’s still the lower minors, but it could be time to start getting excited. He looks like a good one.

Tsung-Che Cheng PIT, SS, 21.10 – If feels fitting to end this Rundown like we started it, with the smallest prospect of them all standing at 5’7″, 154 pounds. But his production has been anything but small (never had a wRC+ under 129 in his 3 year career), and he’s officially killing it again after going 2 for 5 with a homer yesterday. Cheng is now slashing .275/.359/.551 with 4 homers, 7 steals, and a 19%/11.4% K%/BB% in 18 games at the age appropriate High-A. His power is ticking up this year which he combines with plus speed and a good feel to hit. He also plays a solid SS, which could get his bat on the field. He’s still more of a deeper league pickup, but he’s one to keep your eye on at least.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on November 7, 2022November 11, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Seattle Mariners 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Seattle Mariners 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 59 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: TOP 65 CATCHERS
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago White Sox—Colorado Rockies—Kansas City Royals—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—San Francisco Giants—Texas Rangers—Washington Nationals

Hitters

Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 22.3 – Prospects can break your heart, but the season Julio just had is why we play this game. There is nothing more satisfying in all of fantasy sports than acquiring a young prospect, letting him develop in your farm system, and then watching him explode in his MLB debut. And explode is exactly what Julio did, slashing .284/.345/.509 with 28 homers, 25 steals, and a 25.9%/7.1% K%/BB% in 132 games. He has elite speed (29.8 ft/sec sprint speed) and elite exit velocity numbers (92/96.2 MPH AVG/FB EV). He closed out the season with a bang, putting up a 1.202 OPS in his final 19 games, which could be foreshadowing for what he has in store for 2023. The only quibble is that he ran far less in the 2nd half with only 4 steals in 7 attempts in his final 50 games, but considering how fast he is, I wouldn’t get too hung up on that. 2023 Projection: 96/32/98/.278/.353/.522/26

Jarred Kelenic SEA, OF, 23.9 – Prospects can fill your heart, but the career Kelenic is having is why we curse this game. There is nothing more painful in all of fantasy sports than acquiring a young prospect, letting him develop in your farm system, and then watching him implode in the majors. And implode is exactly what Jarred did, slashing .168/.251/.338 with 21 homers, 11 steals, and a 30.0%/9.3% K%/BB% in his 147 game career. He actually managed to get worse in year 2 with a .534 OPS, 33.7% K%, and 55 wRC+ in 54 games. I wrote in the Torkelson blurb for the Tigers Team Report that I’m almost more encouraged that Tork struggled at Triple-A too considering he ripped up Triple-A in 2021. It means it just might have been a down year, which happens to almost everyone in baseball. If he went right back to destroying Triple-A, I might think he has some kind of fatal flaw vs. MLB pitchers. Enter Jarred Kelenic, who continually gets sent back down to Triple-A and goes right back to raking. He was starting to show the weakest of pulses in September with 3 homes and a 1.107 OPS in the first 7 games of the month, but it was false hope as he closed out the season going 1 for 23. Even his upside isn’t what it used to be as he now has below average speed. He’s still only 23 years old, and he has nowhere to go but up (although I said that last year too), but his name value will still probably push his acquisition cost up higher than I would be willing to go. I’m staying away. 2023 Projection: 53/17/61/.228/.299/.405/9

Cal Raleigh SEA, C, 26.4 – Raleigh became one of the premier power hitting catchers in the majors, smashing 27 homers which was tied for first with Daulton Varsho. They weren’t cheapies either as he crushed the ball with a 90.9/94.8 MPH AVG/FB EV and 22.5 degree launch. His 114 MPH Max EV was in the top 6% of the league. The high launch angle combined with a high strikeout rate (29.4% K%) is going to tank his batting average (.211 BA), so he’s basically Mike Zunino 2.0, although his strikeout problems aren’t nearly as bad as Zunino’s. 2023 Projection: 57/25/71/.225/.304/.462/2

Starting Pitchers

George Kirby SEA, RHP, 25.2 – Kirby dominated in his MLB debut with elite control (4.1% BB%) of a legitimate 6 pitch mix (4-seam, curve, cutter, sinker, slider, change). He threw each pitch at least 8% of the time, but the fastball is the money maker, throwing it 45.4% of the time and putting up a negative 18 run value on it (9th best in baseball). It led to a pitching line of 3.39/1.21/133/22 in 130 IP. As advertised from his prospect days, none of his secondaries are true out pitches, and his 24.5% K% isn’t standout with a below average 21.2% whiff%, but that is one hell of a rookie season. I’m only expecting improvements from here. 2023 Projection: 12/3.45/1.11/178 in 170 IP

Logan Gilbert SEA, RHP, 25.4 – Gilbert’s profile is very similar to Kirby’s, except slightly worse. He also has excellent control (6.4% BB%) of a heavily used 96.1 MPH fastball (53.9% usage). He put up a negative 12 run value on the pitch which was 25th overall. It led to a pitching line of 3.20/1.18/174/49 in 185.2 IP. None of his secondaries are truly standout, and while his changeup performed the best, he only went to it 8% of the time. The biggest red flag is that his stuff is mighty hittable with a 91 MPH EV against (bottom 3% of the league) and 118 MPH Max EV against (bottom 1%). His 4.11 xERA was much worst than his 3.20 ERA. K/BB numbers are still king at the end of the day, and his control will ensure a good WHIP even if the ERA rises. I would also bet on improvements to his secondaries as he already tinkered with his slider this year, throwing it 3.5 MPH faster. 2023 Projection: 13/3.58/1.16/187 in 190 IP

Bullpen

Andres Munoz SEA, Setup, 24.2 – Munoz is the top setup man to own in dynasty, and Seattle has been malleable with their bullpen in the past, so he could easily lock down a share of the closer job with Paul Sewald. He throws a 100.2 MPH fastball with a silly elite slider that put up a 50.8% whiff% and .162 xwOBA. It led to a 38.7% K% and 41.8% whiff%. If that wasn’t enough, he also has near elite control with a 6% BB% and he induced weak contact at near elite rates with a 86.2 MPH EV against. He had a 2.49 ERA with a 96/15 K/BB in 65 IP, and his 1.84 xERA was even better. The guy literally doesn’t have a weakness and has a real argument to be crowned the best reliever in baseball. 2023 Projection: 5/2.39/0.93/91/12 saves in 62 IP

Top 10 Seattle Mariners Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Harry Ford SEA, C, 20.1 – Harry Ford and Logan O’Hoppe were my top 2 prospect catcher targets for 2022, and both were big hits. Granted, you could have thrown a rock and hit a catcher prospect breakout with Endy Rodriguez, Bo Naylor, Edgar Quero, Diego Cartaya, Ford, O’Hoppe etc … all having big seasons. Ford used his lightning quick bat, plus speed, and mature plate approach to put up a 132 wRC+ in 104 games at Single-A. He slashed .274/.425/.439 with 11 homers, 23 steals, and a 23%/17.6% K%/BB%. The power didn’t pop, but his home ballpark is one of the worst for homers, and I have no doubts about his long term power as he doesn’t have any groundball issues. He hit 8 homers in 53 games on the road and 3 in 51 games at home. He’s a plus athlete who could play other position, so he could be the type to retain catcher eligibility while still playing 150+ games. He’s still a major buy for me in 2023. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 84/23/78/.268/.350/.463/16

2) Gabriel Gonzalez SEA, OF, 19.3 – Gonzalez might not have the highest upside as he’s not a huge tools guy. He doesn’t have monster power or speed, and he’s not a hulking human being at about 5’11”, but what he does have is monster baseball skills. He destroyed the DSL in 2021 with a 141 wRC+ in 54 games, then he crushed stateside rookie ball in 2022 with a 164 wRC+ in 35 games, before making his full season debut and barely slowing down with a 14%/8.7% K%/BB% and 116 wRC+ in 32 games at Single-A. He has a plus hit tool with near elite contact rates his entire career, and there is plus power potential especially considering the quality of contact. He’s not a burner but he should be able to nab a handful of steals as well. He’s one of the safest teenage prospects in the game and it’s not like there isn’t some upside in here either. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 85/25/85/.278/.343/.473/9

3) Jonatan Clase SEA, OF, 20.10 – Clase had a big time breakout season, but nobody seemed to notice. He slashed .267/.374/.463 with 13 homers, 55 steals, and a 26.7%/13% K%/BB% in 107 games at Single-A. He has elite speed and there is some real juice in his bat with him crushing some absolute bombs. He’s only 5’8”, 150 pounds, so he’s not going to be a huge power hitter, but there should be enough to let his speed shine. The high K% adds risk which prevents his value from really exploding, but he mitigates that with high a walk rate. Clase is the type I hope falls right into my lap late in off-season prospect drafts. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/14/60/.246/.328/.398/31

4) Cole Young SEA, SS, 19.8 – Selected 21st overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Young is kinda similar to Edwin Arroyo (selected 48th by Seattle in 2021) in the sense he doesn’t necessarily jump off the screen, but there is still an exciting set of tools led by the plus hit. He did damage in his pro debut, slashing .367/.423/.517 with 2 homers, 4 steals, and a 8/8 K/BB in 17 games split between rookie ball and Single-A (he actually performed better at Single-A than rookie). He’s a very solid 6’0”, 180 pounds with above average speed and the ability to put a sting into the ball, although his well over 50% GB% will limit his power. It’s not the highest upside profile, but it’s a safe one with the potential to contribute in every category ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 87/17/62/.274/.340/.428/15

5) Lazaro Montes SEA, OF, 18.6 – I fell in love with Montes’ graceful lefty swing from a 6’3”, 210 pound frame last off-season, and he didn’t disappoint in 2022, slashing .284/.422/.585 with 10 homers, 3 steals, and a 33.2%/15.7% K%/BB% in 55 games in the DSL. It’s legitimate 40+ homer potential, but I can’t deny the 33.2% K% against the very weak DSL pitching isn’t concerning. The high walk rate shows that some of that was because of his extreme patience, but it gives him major hit tool risk, and as a corner outfielder, his bat will have to hit close to it’s ceiling to lock in playing time. I’m still betting on the talent long term, but not as much as I would have with better K rates. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 76/34/84/.238/.320/.502/4

6) Felnin Celesten SEA, SS, 17.6 – Expected to sign for over $4 million, Celesten has that super smooth lefty swing (he also hits righty) in the mold of a Marcelo Mayer, George Valera, and Zac Veen. It just screams offensive potential. He’s also an excellent athlete with plus speed. We’ve seen plenty of international prospects with smooth swings just not hit enough against more advanced competition, but it’s hard not to fall in love with the swing and tools. Considering the last couple international classes haven’t really popped, Celesten could come at a very reasonable price in 2023 First Year Player Drafts. This could be the year to dive back into this market. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 83/26/87/.268/.336/.470/18

7) Bryce Miller SEA, RHP, 24.7 – Miller showed major control problems in 2021 in the SEC in his first year as a starter with a 5.9 BB/9 in 56.2 IP, but Seattle took a shot on his big stuff in the 4th round, and it paid off in 2022. He put up a pitching line of 3.16/1.04/163/46 in 133.2 IP at mostly High-A and Double-A. He pitched just as well at each level. He throws gas with a mid 90’s fastball and has 3 quality secondaries in his slider, change, and curve. He certainly still has some reliever risk, but there is real fantasy upside here, especially considering this was only his 2nd year as a starter. 2023 Projection: 3/4.19/1.34/51 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.76/1.30/168 in 160 IP

8) Emerson Hancock SEA, RHP, 23.10 – Hancock was art of pitching his way through Double-A with a 2.19 ERA and 64/21 K/BB in his first 70 IP, but the lack strikeouts caught up with him in the end with a 7.62 ERA and 28/17 K/BB in his final 28.1 IP. His 3.75 ERA was still solid overall, but the 22.3%/9.2% K%/BB% and 5.43 xFIP doesn’t look as good. He has the pedigree as the former 6th overall pick in the draft, and he looks the part when you watch him with 3 electric pitches (mid 90’s heat, change, slider), but the numbers say back end starter. I’ll split the difference and put a #4 starter tag on him. 2023 Projection: 2/4.42/1.38/56 in 65 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.93/1.27/158 in 170 IP

9) Cade Marlowe SEA, OF, 25.9 – Marlowe is in that Joey Wiemer class of prospect. He’s an older prospect with a plus power/speed combo and major hit tool issues. He slashed .287/.377/.487 with 23 homers, 42 steals, and a 27.0%/10.7% K%/BB% in 133 games at mostly Double-A. He made it to Triple-A for 13 games and his K% spiked to 38.3%, which isn’t a great sign. He’s older than Wiemer and the power/speed combo isn’t as big as Wiemer, but these types of prospects give you legitimate upside without having to draft a teenager who is likely at least 3-4 years away. I doubt Seattle will just hand him a starting job, so he will have to scratch and claw for playing time with a very short leash when he does get his shot. He also hits righties significantly better than lefties, so a platoon role is in play. 2023 Projection: 19/5/20/.221/.290/.398/6 Prime Projection: 51/16/60/.236/.316/.431/12

10) Tyler Locklear SEA, 1B/3B, 22.4 – Selected 58th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Locklear put up video game numbers in the Atlantic 10, slashing .402/.542/.799 with 20 homers, 6 steals, and a 25/47 K/BB in 62 games. He smashed in pro ball too with 7 homers and a 21.8% K% in 29 games at Single-A. The power is very real at 6’3”, 210 pounds and he also has a good feel to hit with a relatively short righty swing. The swing isn’t particularly athletic, he has below average speed and he’s likely a 1B long term, so the bat will have to hit it’s absolute ceiling to hold down a full time job. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 64/22/77/.254/.321/.466/2

11) Axel Sanchez SEA, SS, 20.4 – Sanchez looks cool as a cucumber in the box before exploding on the ball. He has easy athleticism and was known more for his glove than his bat prior to this year. The bat really shined in 2022 though, slashing .283/.365/.510 with 10 homers, 13 steals, and a 24.9%/9.1% K%/BB% split between rookie (117 wRC+ in 27 games), Single-A (155 wRC+ in 33 games), and High-A (38 wRC+ in 8 games). There is still plenty of refinement needed, but he reminds me a bit of Jeremy Pena. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 76/20/72/.250/.322/.428/13

12) Michael Arroyo SEA, SS/3B, 18.5 – Arroyo was a high priced international signing who was known for his plus hit tool and mature approach. He came exactly as advertised in his pro debut, slashing .314/.457/.484 with 4 homers, 4 steals, and a 16.6%/13.6% K%/BB% in 49 DSL games. He’s similar to Gabriel Gonzalez in that he isn’t a huge tools guy at 5’10”, 160 pounds, although his power potential probably doesn’t rise quite to Gonzalez’ level. I want to love Arroyo even more, but it’s hard for me to fly a guy up my rankings who doesn’t have huge upside, is a long way off from the majors, and hasn’t even debuted stateside. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 83/21/73/.273/.339/.447/6

13) Taylor Dollard SEA, RHP, 24.1 – Dollard isn’t a big velocity guy with a low 90’s fastball, but he mitigates that by going to his plus slider very often (he also throws a curve and change) and by hitting his spots with at least plus control (5.4% BB%). He put up a pitching line of 2.25/0.95/131/31 in 144 IP at Double-A. He’s not a big strikeout guy, and his .248 BABIP with a 4.66 xFIP shows he needed some luck to put up those numbers. Despite his age, he’s still relatively projectable at 6’3”, 195 pounds, so if he’s able to add velocity in his mid 20’s, he could easily beat his current back to mid rotation projection: 2023 Projection: 1/4.46/1.31/23 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.12/1.26/152 in 165 IP

14) Bryan Woo SEA, RHP, 23.2 – Woo returned from Tommy John surgery in June and immediately showed the big stuff is back with a mid 90’s fastball, plus slider, and a changeup that flashes plus. He was a strikeout machine in the lower minors with a 85/22 K/BB (4.11 ERA) in 57 IP spread across 3 levels (rookie, A, A+). He’s now destroying the AFL with a 0.84 ERA and 16/4 K/BB in 10.2 IP. I generally discount AFL performance, but one of the exceptions is from a pitcher who was out for most of the season. You can’t fake big time stuff, and Woo certainly has big time stuff. This off-season is definitely the time to get in on Woo before his value explodes in 2023. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 9/3.94/1.32/161 in 155 IP

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

As I alluded to in the Jonatan Clase blurb, not every target of mine is someone I’m necessarily going to really stick my neck out to grab. If you’re constantly reaching for all of your favorite underrated targets, you’re basically eliminating the excess value they should provide to you. The value comes from letting that player fall right into your lap. Gaming the draft is a big part of fantasy success, and you have to risk losing a guy. If you miss out on them, c’est la vie. I certainly have some targets I need to have and am willing to go above and beyond to get, but you have to pick your spots.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on July 4, 2022July 4, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/4/22)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/4/22):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT, INCLUDING:
-TOP 10 TRADE NEGOTIATION TACTICS (one of my favorite things I’ve ever written)
-TOP 10 MID-SEASON TRADE TARGETS
-MID-SEASON OBP TOP 447 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-MID-SEASON POINTS/6+CATS/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 430 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-JUNE 2022 TOP 350 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-JUNE 2022 TOP 445 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

Edward Olivares KCR, OF, 26.4 – 2 for 4 with a 108 MPH homer and 108.9 MPH single. That has been the story of Olivares’ season as he’s been smoking the ball with a 91.2 MPH EV in 59 AB. While I doubt he can keep hitting the ball this hard, coming into more power in his late 20’s isn’t that hard to buy into. He’s also fast and his strong contact rates have transferred to the majors. I’ve never ranked Oliveras all that high in my dynasty rankings throughout his career, but maybe my hate of olives has subconsciously biased me against him. The high groundball rates might limit his upside, but he can be the fake Gucci bag version of Michael Harris and Alek Thomas.

Michael Harris ATL, OF, 21.4 – Speaking of Harris, he nuked a dinger of his own on a 108.8 MPH, 425 foot bomb. If you’re trying to acquire him at this point, you’re going to have to pay up like it’s one of those stores on 5th Avenue where you have to be buzzed in to even be let in the store.

Spencer Torkelson DET, 1B, 22.10 – 1 for 4 with a frozen rope of a homer for his 5th of the year in 70 games. Tork is struggling with a .587 OPS, but his 23.9% whiff% is above average, his 89 MPH EV is above average, his .319 xwOBA is above average and his 10.4% BB% is above average. Whatever you do, don’t give up on him.

Brandon Woodruff MIL, RHP, 28.5 – 6 IP, 6 hits, 0 ER, 8/0 K/BB vs. PIT. The stuff looks great. My dad has had Reynaud’s Syndrome basically my entire life, and while he would be in full arctic tundra gear when watching some of my baseball games, he would still kick my ass in stickball with a 4 pitch mix and pinpoint control. If Woodruff’s anything like my pops, he’ll figure it out.

Max Meyer MIA, RHP, 22.4 – Meyer hit the IL after two terrible starts in mid May, but he’s back to dominating since returning in mid June. He went 6 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 5/0 K/BB at Triple-A yesterday and now has a 1.62 ERA with an 18/1 K/BB in his last 16.2 IP. He could get the call at any moment.

Emerson Hancock SEA, RHP, 23.1 – 5.2 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 6/2 K/BB at Double-A. Hancock gets forgotten about, but he has plus control (7% BB%) of an MLB quality 4 pitch mix. He also understands the art of pitching. If he can stay healthy, I would be pretty surprised if he doesn’t end up a damn good MLB starter.

Vaughn Grissom ATL, SS, 21.6 – 3 for 4 with a double and a homer that he launched over the Green(ville) Monster. Grissom’s power is taking a big jump this year with 12 homers in 68 games at High-A and it hasn’t impacted his elite contact numbers at all (12% K%). He walks and has speed too. He’s easily entering Top 50 prospect status at the least.

James Triantos CHC, 3B, 19.5 – Triantos homered for the 3rd straight game, and this one left no doubt about his future power potential as he crushed it out to centerfield. It also happened to be some of the best camera work I’ve ever seen on a homer, following the ball perfectly against the backdrop of the clear black sky. The hit tool has been as advertised with a .280 BA and 17.5% K% in 66 games at Single-A, and now he has a decent 5 homers on the year.

Eguy Rosario SDP, 2B/3B, 22.10 – First there was Esports, and now there are Eguys. When will it end? Like Esports, Eguy is taking over, going 3 for 3 with 2 homers and a steal yesterday, and now has 13 homers, 13 steals, and a 21.8%/11.2% K%/BB% in 72 games at Triple-A. He also made one of the best catches I’ve ever seen. Eguys are just built different I guess.

Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 19.11 – 3 for 5 with a double and a homer at Single-A. He’s managed to get even better since returning from the IL, slashing .396/.476/.642 with 1 homer, 5 steals, and a 20.6%/12.7% K%/BB% in 14 games. He’s an elite prospect.

Andy Pages LAD, OF, 20.7 – The power explosion was inevitable, and it arrived in full force once the calendar hit June. He went 2 for 4 with a homer yesterday and has now hit 9 homers in his last 27 games at Double-A. His profile is pretty locked in as a low average, high walk slugger.

Shane Baz TBR, RHP, 23.1 – 6 IP, 7 hits, 1 ER, 7/2 K/BB vs. TOR. The fastball averaged 95.9 MPH and put up a 79.7 MPH EV on the pitch, while his slider and curve racked up whiffs with a 45% and 40% whiff%. It’s pretty clear he is healthy and on a beeline to become one of the best pitchers in baseball.

MacKenzie Gore SD, LHP, 22.4 – The walk problems are back as Gore walked 4 batters in 5.2 IP yesterday and has now walked 3 or more in his last 6 starts. It’s well beyond just a couple game blip at this point. You have to expect some growing pains, so I would stay patient, but it’s definitely a little concerning.

Bobby Miller LAD, RHP, 22.3 – Miller had his best start of the year, going 6 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 10/3 K/BB at Double-A. His season was starting to look pretty mediocre, so he desperately needed a start like this. The stuff is huge and is most certainly MLB quality, so while he might not be an ace, he should be able to get the job done in whatever role LA deploys him in.

Gavin Williams CLE, RHP, 22.11 – 6.2 IP, 4 hits, 0 ER, 6/0 K/BB at Double-A. The upper minors has been no issue for Williams with a pitching line of 1.69/1.13/19/8 in 16 IP. The fastball is his best pitch and it might legitimately be an elite pitch. His secondaries aren’t too shabby either. He’s trending towards being a #2 fantasy starter.

Jeremy Pena HOU, SS, 23.9 – Pena looked a little rusty after coming off the IL with a thumb injury and also after his collision with Alvarez, going 4 for 23 with a 10/0 K/BB in 5 games, but he found his rhythm yesterday going 4 for 5 with 2 homers. The only weakness to his game has been his walk rate with only a 5.1% BB%, and he didn’t walk that much in any league above Single-A, but I still couldn’t rank him any lower 67th overall on my OBP Top 447 Mid-Season Dynasty Baseball Rankings considering how exciting his debut has been.

Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 20.6 – 2 for 3 and he obliterated the ball in every at bat with a 112.4 MPH double, 110.6 MPH groundout, and 106.9 MPH homer. I’m almost at the point where it isn’t even worth mentioning him in these rundowns because he’s so locked into elite status.

Cavan Biggio TOR, 2B, 26.0 – Biggio is quietly getting his career back on track, ripping 2 line drive singles in 4 AB at 98.8 MPH and 95.4 MPH. He now has a career high .365 xwOBA and 13% Barrel%. The homer and steal numbers are still subdued with 2 homers and 1 steal in 104 AB, but he’s back to being an OBP beast and is getting near full time at bats in a stacked lineup.

Tyler Wells BAL, RHP, 27.7 – 6 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 7/1 K/BB vs. MIN. Wells had no trouble getting whiffs in this one with a 34% whiff% (22.2% on the season). He’s been thriving on weak contact with an 87.6 MPH EV against, but the lack of K’s has made me hesitant to buy in. Doing this against Minnesota’s tough lineup just evaporated a lot of that doubt.

Max Muncy OAK, SS, 19.9 – 1 for 4 with a homer. Muncy swings one of the quickest bats in the minors and it’s resulted in 15 homers in 70 games at Single-A. The 29.7% K% is high, but it’s been better of late with a 24.8%/17.9% K%/BB% in his last 25 games. He’s easily trending towards being a top 100 prospect if he’s not there already.

Jeferson Quero MIL, C, 19.9 – 2 for 4 with a homer at Single-A. Jeferson’s season got off to a slow start with a .665 OPS in April and .587 OPS in May, but he’s exploded in his last 23 games, slashing .333/.426/.556 with 5 homers, 6 steals, and a 12.8%/11.7% K%/BB%. He’s firmly back on track to be one of the top catcher prospects in the game by this time next year.

Endy Rodriguez PIT, C, 22.1 – 2 for 4 with a homer. Rodriguez is putting in Yeoman’s work at High-A with a 122 wRC+. He doesn’t have huge power with 8 homers in 65 games, and his hit tool took a step back against more advanced competition with a career worst 24.2% K%. I think he can be a solid hitting catcher, but I don’t think he is going to be a major fantasy difference maker.

Xavier Edwards TB, 2B/3B, 22.11 – I admittedly have no idea what to think of Edwards. His power is ticking up this year as he drilled his 4th homer in 29 games at Triple-A, and the elite contact rates are still there with a 13.5%/9.5% K%/BB%, but he’s struggled mightily on the bases with 1 steal in 5 attempts. He had 19 steals in 31 attempts last year, so this isn’t a one year blip. I’m personally struggling to buy in, but I get if you’re higher on him than I am.

Bubba Thompson TEX, OF, 24.1 – 2 for 3 with a homer and 0/2 K/BB. Bubba is another one I’m torn on. He was a favorite of mine coming out of his draft year, and his mouth watering talent is self evident with 10 homers and 37 steals in 60 games at Triple-A. The plate approach is rough with a 26.7%/5% K%/BB%, but it’s been better of late with a 23.1%/11.5% K%/BB% in his last 22 games. The improved BB% definitely has me a little excited as he could be setting up to be a late career breakout type.

Jonatan Clase SEA, OF, 20.1/Luis Rodriguez LAD, OF, 19.10 – Clase and Rodriguez both collected 2 hits with a homer yesterday for their 7th homers of the year, and are both prospects I like a lot, but they each have a 31.6% K% which is preventing me from really getting excited for them. I like Clase more between the two because he’s a speedster with 25 steals, so if he can get the K’s in check, his fantasy stock could soar.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 10 TRADE NEGOTIATION TACTICS (one of my favorite things I’ve ever written)
-TOP 10 MID-SEASON TRADE TARGETS
-MID-SEASON OBP TOP 447 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-MID-SEASON POINTS/6+CATS/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 430 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-JUNE 2022 TOP 350 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-JUNE 2022 TOP 445 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 16 2023 FYPD RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)