Jordan Walker – Page 2 – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on August 9, 2022August 12, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 350 August 2022 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings

I was strict with my definition of a prospect in this one again. July through May Rankings are in parenthesis, in that order. Here is the Top 350 August 2022 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS AND TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT, INCLUDING:
-TOP 437 JULY 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 10 TRADE NEGOTIATION TACTICS (one of my favorite things I’ve ever written)
-TOP 10 MID-SEASON TRADE TARGETS
-MID-SEASON OBP TOP 447 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-MID-SEASON POINTS/6+CATS/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 430 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 40 2023 FYPD RANKINGS

Tier 1

1) (1) (2) (5) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.0 – Got promoted to Triple-A and actually improved his only slight weakness with a 16.9%/16.9% K%/BB% in 18 games (24.5%/14.8% K%/BB% at Double-A). His power won’t be as big as most of the elite prospects ranked after him, so in points league or OPS leagues, it’s reasonable to go another way at #1.

2) (8) (99) (158) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 18.5 – Here’s what I wrote about Chourio in my Friday Dynasty Rundown over on Patreon, “DO NOT TRADE THIS MAN!!! Every dynasty owner has trades they sorely regret. It’s just the nature of the beast. Mine was trading Juan Soto in 2017 for 2 expiring contracts that helped me win a championship by half a point. Soto went bonkos the next year and put up a ridiculous .923 OPS in the majors the very next year! It legitimately hurts me to this day. Fuck the championship. I have a sinking feeling in my gut even writing this blurb right now. Milwaukee has aggressively promoted Chourio all the way up to High-A this year (.905 OPS with a 6/5 K/BB in 9 games), making me think he’s going to get special treatment on his path to the majors like one of those celebrities who take 15 minute helicopter rides to skip over rush hour traffic. I’m updating my Prospects Rankings next week, and he’s my no doubt #2 prospect, and I’m real tempted to push him over Carroll at #1. I implore you one more time, HOLD ON FOR DEAR LIFE!”

3) (2) (8) (12) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS, 21.1 – He’ll chip in with steals, but he isn’t going to steal as many bags as Carroll or Chourio, so I would hesitate to pick Gunnar over those guys in a 5×5 BA league. He’s arguably the top prospect in leagues that devalue steals.

4) (4) (16) (6) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 21.3 – A 55.4% flyball percentage is going to hurt his BA considering he doesn’t have monster raw power. That .247 BA at Double-A isn’t all bad luck.

5) (3) (9) (13) Jordan Walker STL, 3B, 20.3 – Only 2 for 4 on the bases in his last 36 games at Double-A. The bat isn’t a question at all though with 5 homers in his last 15 games

6) (7) (54) (92) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 20.6 – Called up to Double-A and the K% hasn’t gotten out of hand with a 31.5% K% (30.7% K% at High-A). At every new level we just have to hold our breath it doesn’t spike to like 40%

7) (9) (43) (42) James Wood WAS, OF, 19.11 – There is nothing like a blockbuster trade for a player to finally get the respect they deserve. I’ve been shouting that Wood is an elite prospect for months now, and he was also one of my top targets in 2021 first year player drafts.

8) (6) (18) (18) Zac Veen COL, OF, 20.7 – I would have liked to see more than 11 homers in 92 games at High-A, but I really don’t have many doubts about the long-term power, and the insane 50 steals helps soften the modest power output

9) (10) (20) (38) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 20.1 – Starting to come alive at High-A, going 7 for 15 with 2 homers in his last 3 games

10) (FYPD-1) Druw Jones ARI, OF, 18.8 – Hurt his shoulder during BP and could be out for the year. I dropped Lawlar from the #1 slot in my first year player draft rankings last year after his shoulder injury, and I’m not making the same mistake with Jones

11) (35) (59) (106) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 19.6 – Called up to High-A and has a 25.8%/12.1% K%/BB%, 2 homers, and 5 steals in 15 games. He smacks the shit out of the ball, has speed, and is keeping the K’s in check. It’s time to get really excited again

12) (16) (31) (23) Francisco Alvarez NYM, C, 20.9 – He found his groove at Triple-A with a .984 OPS in his last 12 games

13) (5) (17) (11) Robert Hassell WAS, OF, 21.0 – This small drop is just for that lingering concern that the power/speed totals might be more solid than standout

14) (12) (5) (2) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 22.9 – Last update had Rodriguez throwing from 120 feet as he rehabs his right lat strain. Eury Perez’ recent rough patch is enough for me to bump Rodriguez back over him, as I would have definitely preferred Rodriguez had he not gotten injured

15) (11) (14) (21) Eury Perez MIA, RHP, 19.3 – Don’t shoot the messenger, but Perez just gave up 6 earned in 1.1 IP in his last outing, his last 3 outings have been rough (10.64 ERA in 11 IP), and he has a pretty mediocre 4.19 ERA on the season. He’s 19 years old at Double-A with nasty stuff, so he’s still really impressive overall, but maybe we shouldn’t crown him quite yet

16) (13) (13) (9) Daniel Espino CLE, RHP, 21.7 – This dude just disappeared off the face of the earth. If I ever commit a crime and need to lay low for awhile, I’m hitting up that Cleveland brain trust for pointers

Tier 2

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on August 1, 2022August 1, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (8/1/22)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (8/1/22):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT, INCLUDING:
-MID-SEASON TOP 314 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 437 JULY 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 10 TRADE NEGOTIATION TACTICS (one of my favorite things I’ve ever written)
-TOP 10 MID-SEASON TRADE TARGETS
-MID-SEASON OBP TOP 447 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-MID-SEASON POINTS/6+CATS/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 430 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 40 2023 FYPD RANKINGS

Jarred Kelenic SEA, OF, 22.11 – 0 for 3 with 2 K’s vs. HOU. It’s like he never left

Alex Ramirez NYM, OF, 19.6 – The hype has been far too quiet on Ramirez for years now, but it’s not going to stay that way for much longer as he demolished 2 homers at High-A yesterday, the first one out to dead center, and the 2nd one he smashed so hard even he had to stop and stare. He’s now destroying High-A with 5 homers and a .935 OPS in 20 games. I’ve tried to carry the torch for him on my own since he was signed, ranking him all the way up at 161st overall on my 2020 Prospects Rankings, and he’s now reached Top 50 status for me.

Pedro Leon HOU, OF/SS, 24.2 – Leon walloped a homer where the ball jumped off the bat so fast you don’t even need to know the EV to know it was hit out with the quickness … but I checked anyway and it was measured at 107.6 MPH. My eye had it at least 109.2 MPH though. I trust the eye test 🙂 He’s leveled up over the past 25 games, slashing .282/.430/.541 with 5 homers, 12 steals, and most importantly a 17/18 K/BB. Seeing the K’s come down is huge.

Nick Lodolo CIN, LHP, 24.4 – 6 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 7/2 K/BB vs. Baltimore. Lodolo had all 3 pitches working (sinker, curve, change), leading to a 33% whiff% and 87.3 MPH EV against on the day. I hope my Patreon members already went out and acquired Lodolo, because I named him one of my Top 10 Mid-Season Trade Targets back in late June, and ranked him 147th overall on the Updated Top 437 Dynasty Rankings that dropped last week. There could still be a buy window here, but it’s closing fast.

Reid Detmers LAA, LHP, 23.0 – 7 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 12/3 K/BB vs. TEX. He dominated with the fastball, slider and curve that all put up over a 40% whiff%. The fastball is up to 93.8 MPH, which is great to see after it was sitting 92+ MPH earlier in the year. He’s been a man possessed since getting called back up with a 1.13 ERA and 31/9 K/BB in 24 IP. I ranked him 239th in the Updated Dynasty Rankings, and that’s already looking pretty light.

David Peterson NYM, LHP, 26.10 – Peterson was sent down to Triple-A due to the Mets jammed packed rotation and went 4.1 IP with 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 7/2 K/BB. I see this as a blessing in disguise if you don’t own him because this creates a buying opportunity that you should jump all over. His fastball is up 0.7 MPH to 93.7 MPH, and his slider jumped 2 MPH to 84.1 MPH, turning it into an elite pitch with a 47.8% whiff%. If he gets dropped in a shallowish league, or if a contender is willing to trade him in a win now deal, I would pounce.

Matt Chapman TOR, 3B, 29.2 – Don’t look now but Chapman has his OPS up over .800 (.808) after going 2 for 3 with a 108.7 MPH homer yesterday. The K% is holding at a manageable 26% and his EV is back up to 93 MPH (Top 2% of the league). His .353 xwOBA is the 2nd best mark of his career. I ranked him 144th overall on my Top 1,000 Rankings this off-season and wrote, “Chapman seems like one of the easiest bounce back calls in baseball for 2022. One of those picks that will look obvious in hindsight. He underwent surgery to repair a hip labrum that brought his rehab right up to the start of the 2021 season. Even with the down year he still jacked 27 homers, put up a career best 12.9% BB%, and had an above average .320 xwOBA. With a normal off-season and being further removed from that serious surgery there is almost no doubt he will perform much closer to his career numbers.”

Bryan Ramos CHW, 3B/2B, 20.5 – Ramos lifted off for 2 homers at High-A to give him 17 homers in 83 games. It also comes with an excellent 16.9%/9.1% K%/BB%. He hasn’t stolen a single base, which caps his fantasy upside, but he’s quietly chugging along as one of the best hit/power combo prospects in the game.

Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 22.4 – Casas missed almost two months with a sprained ankle, but he’s back to raking at Triple-A as he cranked out his 2nd homer in 3 games. He hasn’t exploded at the level with a 107 wRC+ in 45 games, but it doesn’t really change his profile much as a high OBP, slugging first baseman who should maintain a solid BA too.

Jordan Walker STL, 3B, 20.3 – Walker is snapping out of a power slump with his 4th and 5th homer in his last 9 games at Double-A. He hit 1 in his previous 28 games, but you only have to watch his first homer of the day to see why the power slump wasn’t an issue at all. He hit the ball 439 feet on a very easy and controlled swing. He’s also been in a stolen base slump with 1 steal in his last 29 games, and that one I am a little concerned about considering his size. He’ll chip in with a handful, but I wouldn’t expect him to a major contributor in that category

Francisco Alvarez NYM, C, 20.7 – Talk about no doubt power, Alvarez smashed his 3rd homer in 16 games at Triple-A out to right center. It was a pitch on the outside corner that he hit off the end of his bat. He’s only hitting .173, but that’s mostly due to a .194 BABIP, and he’s an OBP machine with a 21.1% BB%.

James Wood SDP, OF, 19.9 – Possibly my favorite prospect in the game, Wood had yet another huge day at the dish, going 4 for 5 with a homer that he crushed out to centerfield on a pretty short and quick swing. That short and quick swing gives him a chance to hit for a pretty decent average despite being 6’7”. He has 10 dingers with a 17.8%/15.8% K%/BB% in 50 games at Single-A. Please believe this man is an elite prospect. He ranked 9th overall on my Top 314 July Prospects Rankings (Patreon).

Roansy Contreras PIT, RHP, 22.8 – Pitt has head scratchingly used Contreras an up and down arm this year, and he went 3 IP with 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 5/0 K/BB at Triple-A yesterday. They shut him down after his best outing of the year on July 7th and are now building him back up, so I guess there is some method to the madness, but I’ve never really seen any other good team use a development strategy like this. It’s odd at the very least.

Chase Petty CIN, RHP, 19.0 – Petty got called up to High-A and got hit up, going 3 IP with 7 hits, 6 ER, and a 1/3 K/BB. His numbers at Single-A were solid (3.18 ERA), but the stuff has been a little underwhelming relative to where it was in his draft year, and a 22.7%/8.7% K%/BB% is not that exciting. I assumed he was the type to either have a 14.7% BB% with a 1.51 WHIP, or skyrocket to top pitching prospect in the game status, but he’s surprisingly ending up kinda boring. Not to say that next year he can’t take it to another level.

Mason Montgomery TB, LHP, 22.0 – 5 IP, 6 hits, 1 ER, 5/2 K/BB at Double-A. Montgomery got called up to Double-A for his last 3 starts and the higher level definitely put him in check with a 26.4%/16.4% K%/BB% in 13 IP, but he’s still managed to hold his own with a 2.08 ERA. The stuff isn’t big, but he uses a deceptive lefty delivery to get the job done and is in a great organization to maximize his talent. I like him as a late round target in off-season prospect drafts.

Bryan Mata BOS, RHP, 23.3 – 6 IP, 5 hits, 3 ER, 7/1 K/BB at Double-A. Mata got a late start to his season coming off April 2021 Tommy John surgery and he’s just now getting up to full speed, throwing 88 pitches in this one which is a season high. He has major control problems that gives his bullpen risk, but the stuff is nasty with an upper 90’s fastball and 4 pitch mix. Even if he ends up in the pen he has the potential to go Jhoan Duran on us.

Alec Bohm PHI, 3B, 26.0 – 4 for 5 with a 109.6 MPH double, 105 MPH single, and 102 MPH homer. Bohm’s launch angle is all the way up to 11 degrees (5.6 degrees in 2021), which is extremely encouraging for his future power potential, although a 92.6 MPH FB/LD EV has kept it in check this year with only 7 homers in 94 games. Regardless, his .346 xwOBA is much better than his .323 wOBA, and he’s starting to lock himself in as a reliable MLB hitter. He has only one steal with a below average 27.1 ft/sec sprint speed, and his 4.7% BB% is in the bottom 7% of the league, so there are still some issues, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see his power really pop down the stretch here.

Eloy Jimenez CHW, OF, 25.7 – 1 for 3 with a 109.8 MPH homer. Eloy is back to his power and nothing else thing, but boy oh boy does he have power with a 94.1 MPH EV (4th best in baseball with a minimum of 50 BBE) and 99 MPH FB/LD EV (2nd best). It’s his 8.7 degree launch and 25.5%/4.1% K%/BB% that keeps me from ranking him any higher than 110th on the Updated Top 437 Dynasty Rankings, but that insane exit velocity could make that ranking look silly very quickly.

Brandon Lowe TB, OF/2B, 27.11 – 2 for 3 with 2 doubles and a 0/1 K/BB. The perpetually underrated Lowe returned from a lower back injury a couple weeks ago and immediately gots to raking, slashing .340/.392/.553 with an 90.4 MPH EV. His 23.4% K% is a career low.

Jose Miranda MIN, 3B/2B, 24.0 – Miranda pummeled his 10th homer in 64 games off Sean Manaea and now has a 214 wRC+ with a 91.1 MPH EV in his last 16 games. The underlying numbers are still a little underwhelming overall with a .301 xwOBA (.343 wOBA) and 5% BB%, so I’m a little hesitant to go all in, but his plus hit/power combo is definitely starting to come around in the majors.

James Outman LAD, OF, 25.2 – Outman made his MLB debut with a bang, going 3 for 4 with a 109.4 MPH single, 104.3 MPH double, and a 404 foot homer. He’s likely a bench bat, but he’s interesting in a deep league with a plus power/speed combo and a high OBP. The K rate has been high his entire career (29% K% in 68 games at Double-A), and he only had a 99 wRC+ in his 22 games at Triple-A, so I would keep expectations in check, but he has fantasy friendly upside in OBP league especially if he works his way into more playing time.

George Valera CLE, OF, 21.7 – Valera murdered a ball off a lefty for his 15th homer in 84 games and 2nd homer off a lefty at Double-A. It was a no doubter that would have likely been a 2nd deck shot had there been a 2nd deck

Robert Hassell SDP, OF, 20.11 – Hassell slapped one the other way for his 10th homer in 75 games at High-A. His power has been underwhelming since hitting 5 homers in April, and he’s also 1 for 4 on the bases in his last 21 games. As much as I love him, it wouldn’t be surprising if ended up a mid teens power and speed guy.

Deyvison De Los Santos ARI, 3B, 19.1 – De Los Santas got called up to High-A and he just can’t stop hitting bombs, drilling his 4th in 9 games. It comes with a 9/0 K/BB, and the plate approach hasn’t been great all year, but considering his elite power and age, I wouldn’t get too hung up on that.

Matt Mervis CHC, 1B, 24.3 – I’m late to the Marvelous Mr. Mervis party, but he recently got the call to Triple-A and has continued to dominate, going 2 for 4 with a double yesterday and now has a 136 wRC+ with 2 homers and a 17.5%/5% K%/BB% in 9 games. He’s 6’4”, 225 pounds with a vicious lefty swing, and while he hits righties much better than lefties, he’s not hopeless against lefties with a .796 OPS in 114 PA. He’s a good pick up in any size league, even relatively shallow ones.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on July 13, 2022July 15, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 314 Mid-Season 2022 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings

I went back to being very strict with my definition of a prospect in this one. June and May Rankings are in parenthesis, in that order. Here is the Top 314 Mid-Season 2022 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS AND TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT, INCLUDING:
-TOP 10 TRADE NEGOTIATION TACTICS (one of my favorite things I’ve ever written)
-TOP 10 MID-SEASON TRADE TARGETS
-MID-SEASON OBP TOP 447 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-MID-SEASON POINTS/6+CATS/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 430 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-JUNE 2022 TOP 445 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 16 2023 FYPD RANKINGS (UPDATED AND EXPANDED EARLY NEXT WEEK)

1) (2) (5) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 21.11 – Hit a dinger and made a highlight reel diving catch in his first game at Triple-A. He’s electric … boogie woogie woogie

2) (8) (12) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS, 21.0 – I must have sent that “Gunnar Henderson is elite” memo by Pony Express because it took a few months for everyone else to catch up

3) (9) (13) Jordan Walker STL, 3B, 20.2 – Homer power is the only thing that isn’t thriving with 7 homers in 69 games, but that’s really the last thing we have to worry about with Walker because of his size and excellent EV numbers.

4) (16) (6) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 21.2 – The low BABIP has regressed in a good way, slashing .317/.405/.564 with 5 homers, 15 steals, and a 14/13 K/BB in his last 26 games. He has 35 steals in 74 games at Double-A

5) (17) (11) Robert Hassell SDP, OF, 20.11 – With Veen’s K% all the way down, I could go either way on Hassell vs. Veen

6) (18) (18) Zac Veen COL, OF, 20.6 – K% is all the way down to 21.1% and not only has his stolen bases not regressed from last year but he’s actually on a better pace with a much, much better success rate (35 for 37 in 75 games at High-A)

7) (54) (92) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 20.5 – The guy has 20 homers and 28 steals in 72 games at High-A. I mean, what the fuck? 30.5% K% is the only thing keeping him ranked even this low

8) (99) (158) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 18.3 – Chourio had already moved all the way up to this area in all of the Mid-Season Updated Dynasty Rankings. Both the stats and eye test is off the charts. 28.2% K% is the only quibble.

9) (43) (42) James Wood SDP, OF, 19.10 – Returned from a sore wrist and has been even better than before hitting the IL, slashing .333/.422/.563 with 3 homers, 7 steals, and a 17/12 K/BB in 21 games. I always call him Oneil Cruz 2.0, but he actually might end up better than Cruz because the hit tool is better

10) (20) (38) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 20.0 – Called up to High-A and has struggled in 6 games with a .095 BA

11) (14) (21) Eury Perez MIA, RHP, 19.2 – I love these next 3 pitchers, but when push comes to shove, I just can’t take them over the potentially elite, all category hitters even if they are closer. Perez has a 1.88 ERA with a 31/5 K/BB in 24 IP since the last update. He’s healthy, so he gets the nod over Grayson and Espino

12) (5) (2) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 22.6 – Right lat strain could end his season. He did begin light rehab activities after a “good” MRI, so there is some good news. If you want to downgrade him more because of the injury I have no issue with that

13) (13) (9) Daniel Espino CLE, RHP, 21.5 – Still out with that knee tendinitis they claimed wasn’t that serious

14) (1) (7) Royce Lewis MIN, SS, 23.0 – It feels like Kyle Lewis all over again with knee injury after knee injury, but like Lewis, Lewis’ talent is too good to give up on. Maybe it’s just a Lewis thing.

15) (23) (36) Ezequiel Tovar COL, SS, 20.11 – In the midst of his first slump, but even his slumps look good with a .311 BA in his last 18 games. It comes with only 1 homer and 1 steal though

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on May 31, 2022June 2, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 350 June 2022 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings

I reversed course on this one and was very lenient with my definition of a prospect, so the previous ranking in parenthesis might indicate a bigger drop than actually happened due to adding a bunch of players who weren’t eligible on my last stricter update. Here is the Top 350 June 2022 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS AND TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED MAY 2022 TOP 433 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED JUNE 2022 TOP 350 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

1) (7) Royce Lewis MIN, SS, 23.0 – I’m trying to make a case why Lewis shouldn’t be the #1 prospect in baseball and I just can’t do it. He already rose to #7 overall in last month’s update before he got the call to the majors, and then he went out and proved the skills will translate against MLB pitching with a 16.2% whiff% and 90.7 MPH EV in 41 PA. He has all the talent in the world as a former #1 overall pick and he destroyed Triple-A in every facet of the game. While the prospects ranked after him are every bit as talented, proving it in the majors is a big deal, as we’ve seen top prospects come up and quickly establish they just can’t handle MLB pitching … cough, Jarred Kelenic, clearing throat sound, cough, cough. I obviously don’t love the knee injury after he crashed into the wall, but right now it’s not looking like a major injury

2) (5) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 21.9 – Hasn’t slowed down in May at all with a 1.031 OPS at Double-A

3) (1) Riley Greene DET, OF, 21.8 – Began his rehab assignment from a broken foot and went 1 for 4 in his first game back at Triple-A

4) (4) Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 23.8 – K% is all the way down to a respectable 25.1%, and in his last 20 games he’s slashing .281/.392/.549 with 6 homers, 3 steals, and a 19/12 K/BB at Triple-A. I’m still all in on Cruz

5) (2) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 22.6 – 0.94 ERA with a 43/9 K/BB in his last 28.2 IP at Triple-A. I have no idea why he isn’t in the majors already Update: Left his last start with a lat injury. Fucking pitching prospects man

6) (6/UR) Shane Baz TBR, RHP, 22.11 – Due to being more strict on my last prospects update, Baz wasn’t included, but he was my 6th ranked prospect in the Top 433 May 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings from 2 weeks ago. He recently began a rehab assignment at Triple-A and should be back in the majors soon.

7) (3) Adley Rutschman BAL, C, 24.4 – Plate approach skills are transferring to the majors with a 17.1%/11.4% K%/BB% in 35 PA. He has 0 barrels, but an 89 MPH EV ain’t bad, so he’ll find the barrel of the bat eventually

8) (12) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS, 20.11 – Not only has his plate approach not regressed, but he’s taken it to another level recently with a 13.6%/22.2% K%/BB% in his last 19 games at Double-A

9) (13) Jordan Walker STL, 3B, 20.0 – Power hasn’t fully shown up with 4 homers and a 50.5% GB% in 40 games at Double-A, but at 6’5”, 220 pounds, that is the last thing we have to worry about

10) (8/UR) CJ Abrams SD, SS, 21.8 – I still love Abrams, but I just trust the power of Henderson and Walker more, and they are doing it in the upper levels of the minors now too. Like Baz, Abrams wasn’t included in the last Prospects Rankings but he ranked 8th on the latest Dynasty Rankings.

11) (8) George Kirby SEA, RHP, 24.4 – Exactly as advertised with plus control (2.4% BB%) of a plus 95.5 MPH fastball (30.4% whiff%), to go along with effective but not exceptional secondaries

12) (13/UR) MJ Melendez KCR, C, 23.6 – K% hasn’t ballooned in the majors with a respectable 27.1% whiff% which has allowed his no joke power to shine with a 91.7 MPH EV and 4 homers in 22 games

13) (9) Daniel Espino CLE, RHP, 21.5 – Currently out with some knee tendinitis that doesn’t seem serious, but he’s also been out since April 29th so maybe it was more serious than they were letting on. I wouldn’t downgrade him one iota because of the injury at this point

14) (21) Eury Perez MIA, RHP, 19.2 – 2.12 ERA with a 20/4 K/BB in 17 IP in May. The fastball has hit over 100 MPH this year. He’s gonna be an ace

15) (29/UR) MacKenzie Gore SDP, LHP, 23.3 – He’s outperforming the underlying numbers with a 1.71 ERA vs. a 3.32 xERA (also a 28.3% K% vs. a 25.1% whiff%), but that is just nitpicking as his electric 4 pitch mix is shining due to improved control (8.4% BB% in 42 IP)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on May 4, 2022May 7, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 316 May 2022 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings

I’ve decided to be very strict about prospect eligibility. All prospects that have exceeded their rookie eligibility according to Baseball Reference and all currently in the majors are excluded. Here is the Top 316 May 2022 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS AND TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED APRIL 2022 TOP 414 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

1) Riley Greene DET, OF, 21.6 – Greene likely wouldn’t have been eligible to crack this list had he not gone down with a broken foot. But he did break his foot, and will have to settle for ascending to top dog status on prospect lists.

2) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 22.4 – Last 2 outings haven’t been great but he got BABIP’d to death with 0 homers and good K/BB numbers. 37.9%/5.7% K%/BB% in 21.2 IP at Triple-A shows the dominance

3) Adley Rutschman BAL, C, 24.2 – Started his rehab assignment at High-A from a strained right triceps and is unsurprisingly far too advanced for the level with a 0/2 K/BB and 230 wRC+ in 4 games.

4) Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 23.6 – 32.9% K% and 57 wRC+ in 19 games at Triple-A. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the struggles were related to the disappointment of not cracking the opening day roster.

5) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 21.7 – Doing everything at Double-A with 4 homers, 7 steals, and a 23.6%/13.5% K%/BB%

6) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 20.11 – Early season struggles are in the rear view mirror. A .239 BABIP is really the only thing keeping his numbers down at Double-A

7) Royce Lewis MIN, SS, 22.10 – Came back from the knee surgery a new man, putting up a 19.4%/16.1% K%/BB% in 21 games at Triple-A. Power and speed look great too

8) George Kirby SEA, RHP, 24.2 – Performing like his usual dominant self, and the secondaries look improved. He could take Brash’s spot in the rotation shortly

9) Daniel Espino CLE, RHP, 21.3 – Currently out with some knee tendinitis that doesn’t seem serious. Insane 51.5%/5.9% K%/BB% in 18.1 IP at Double-A.

10) Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 22.2 – Is not long for the minors with Dalbec struggling hard

11) Robert Hassell SDP, OF, 20.7 – Destroying High-A with a 15.4%/9.9% K%/BB%, 5 homers and 9 steals. Something to note, the minor leagues still clearly have the super happy fun balls, so these guys with high groundball rates might struggle to hit for this kind of power in the majors assuming MLB doesn’t switch back to the juiced balls in the future. Carroll and Hassell both have over 50% groundball rates

12) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS, 20.9 – Strikeout problems have disappeared completely at Double-A with a 19.1%/23.6% K%/BB% in 20 games

13) Jordan Walker STL, 3B, 19.10 – 22.9%/12% K%/BB% is huge to see in 18 games at Double-A considering his raw power and athleticism

14) Max Meyer MIA, RHP, 22.11 – One of the most impressive pitchers in the minors this year. 32.4%/5.9% K%/BB% with a 1.71 ERA in 26.1 IP at Triple-A. Still mostly fastball/slider, but the changeup is improving

15) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 21.1 – Game power is ticking up with 4 homers and a 44.1% GB% in 21 games at Double-A

16) Miguel Vargas LAD, 3B, 22.4 – Everything is translating to Triple-A

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on April 11, 2022April 11, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/11/22)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/11/22):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR A TON MORE OF THESE DYNASTY RUNDOWNS ALL SEASON, PLUS MONTHLY DYNASTY AND PROSPECTS RANKINGS UPDATES

Heliot Ramos SFG, OF, 22.6 – Ramos made his MLB debut and immediately put up some grown man exit velocities on a 2 for 3 day. He ripped 2 singles at 107.4 MPH and 100.1 MPH. I don’t know if he can carve out a full time role or stick in the majors long term, but if he keeps hitting he’ll give them no choice but to play him.

Francisco Lindor NYM, SS, 28.4 – The Francisco Lindor comeback tour is coming to a town near you as Lindor stole a bag and homered for his first of the year. He now has a 1.054 OPS in his first 4 games. I was about to crack a joke about the homer being against Erick Fedde, but Fedde actually pitched pretty well otherwise (5 IP, 5 hits, 2 ER, 5/2 K/BB).

Hunter Greene CIN, RHP, 22.8 – Greene made his MLB debut and went 5 IP with 4 hits, 3 ER, and a 7/2 K/BB vs a very tough Atlanta lineup. His fastball averaged 99.7 MPH with a 32% whiff%, his slider put up a 45% whiff%, and he used his changeup as a legitimate third pitch with a 14% usage rate. This start only gets me more excited.

Wander Franco TBR, SS, 21.1 – Franco collected 3 more hits in 4 AB and is now 6 for 11 on the season, but more importantly, he snagged his first bag. He was already elite without projecting a ton of steals, so if he starts really running, hang on to your hats.

Andrew Vaughn CHW, 1B, 24.0 – Vaughn is cooking with his 2nd dinger of the year and he tacked on a 98.6 MPH single. I think some people were forgetting about how good this guy is.

Maddux Bruns LAD, LHP, 19.10 – 2 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 4/0 K/BB at Single-A. LA took the high risk, high reward Bruns in the late 1st round with the thought they could fix his control problems, and while it’s only 2 innings, looking good so far. He has a mid 90’s fastball and looked like he was throwing both a big loopy curve and a harder slider. Everything was working. If you are in a league where you have to jump on guys really fast, this is a high upside prospect who could fly up lists if the control gains hold.

Bryan Ramos CHW, 3B/2B, 20.1 – Well lookie lookie here, Ramos did it again, this time with an absolute tank out to left center for his 2nd of the year at High-A. He was one of my players to target in my Hitter Targets Part 1 article in February on Patreon. Get in now if you still can.

Seiya Suzuki CHC, OF, 27.7 – I’ve done more than my fair share of patting myself on the back during week 1, but this is one I wish I could have back. I wasn’t low on Suzuki, but I wasn’t high either, and that is looking like a mistake in the early going. He got ahold of his first dinger, and it was no cheapie either, decimating it at 110.9 MPH. He has a 1.288 OPS on the year.

Rowdy Tellez MIL, 1B, 27.0 – Rowdy Rowdy Tellez is starting to bud that breakout that the underlying numbers easily predicted would happen. He drilled a 107.7 MPH, 424 foot homer for his first of the year. He has a 1.357 OPS in the early going.

Michael Kopech CHW, RHP, 25.11 – 4 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 3/2 K/BB. His fastball sat 95.3 MPH, and while this would be a fine place to sit as a starter, there could be more in the tank as he rounds into mid season form. His secondaries lost some spin and MPH too, but they were relatively effective. Kopech didn’t wow, but considering his delayed start to spring and quick ramp up, this wasn’t too bad.

Julio Urias LAD, LHP, 25.8 – 2 IP, 6 hits, 6 ER, 0/2 K/BB. It was a total disaster for Urias with his velocity down 2.7 MPH to 91.4 MPH. All of his pitches got hit up, resulting in a 95.6 MPH EV against. Let’s hope his stuff comes back with time, but there is no getting around it, this was bad.

Art Warren CIN, Closer (for now), 29.1 – Warren nailed down his first save of the year with his 97.6 MPH fastball and plus slider. Lucas Sims should be back soon, and while I was targeting Sims all off-season, it could get hairy if Warren keeps pitching well. They very well might continue to ride the hot hand here.

Jeremy Pena HOU, SS, 24.5 – Pena keeps rolling with a 3 for 5 day, highlighted by a 98.9 MPH double. He’s struck out a bit with 5 K’s in 16 AB, but seeing him hit the ball this hard is more encouraging.

Joshua Mears SDP, OF, 21.1 – Mears went 4 for 8 with 2 homers and 4 K’s in a doubleheader. Homers and strikeouts are Mears’ bread and butter. My bread and butter … are bread and butter.

Aeverson Arteaga SFG, SS, 19.1 – Arteaga has struggled in his full season debut with 8 K’s in 11 AB, but he got off the schneid yesterday with his first homer of the year. Considering the high strikeout rate from last year, all the K’s aren’t great.

Kahlil Watson MIA, SS, 18.11 – Make it two straight for Watson, and he completely obliterated this one for his 2nd of the year. He was then pulled from the game after 2 AB for slamming his bat on the ground after grounding out. How dare you show any emotion. If you don’t play the game like an emotionless robot, you sit. It’s 1950’s rules in baseball.

Ryne Nelson ARI, RHP, 24.2 – 5 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 7/0 K/BB. The velocity is still way down at 91.9 MPH, but he continues to be effective in spite of that. Even with the great results, I’m not sure I can just ignore the stuff being down. I’m definitely getting a bit concerned.

Steven Kwan CLE, OF, 24.7 – 5 for 5 and is now 8 for 10 on the year with a 0/3 K/BB in the majors. He doesn’t have big power, and he’s not super fast either with a 27.4 ft/sec sprint speed, so while I don’t think he is going to be a fantasy monster, the contact skills are most certainly translating to the majors.

Hudson Haskin BAL, OF, 23.3 – Once, twice, three times a dinger as Haskin pulled the hat trick and went deep 3 times at Double-A. He’s now 7 for 12 on the year. After hitting only 5 homers in 83 games last year, the power surge is great to see.

Nolan Gorman STL, 3B/2B, 21.11 – Gorman came up one short of the hat trick at Triple-A, knocking two homers out, one vs. a lefty and one vs. a righty. He’s struck out 8 times in 17 AB, which has been a problem for him in the past, so hopefully that number comes down.

Jordan Walker STL, 3B, 19.10 – St. Louis pushed Walker to Double-A, and he’s responded by drilling his first homer of the year on a 109 MPH bullet. Almost more importantly, he has a 1/3 K/BB in 11 AB. Arrow continues to point way up.

Elehuris Montero COL, 1B/OF, 23.7 – Montero tore up Triple-A last year, and he’s back at it this year, crushing his 2nd homer in 22 AB. Can’t wait for Colorado to give him full time at bats when he’s 29 years old.

Robert Hassell SDP, OF, 20.7 – Hassell went the opposite way for his first homer of the year at High-A. He’s now 5 for 11 with 2 steals and a 2/2 K/BB. He can be a top 5 prospect by this time next year.

MJ Melendez KCR, C, 23.4/Shea Langeliers ATL, C, 24.5 – Both of these blocked power hitting catchers hit bombs. It was Langeliers’ 3rd and Melendez’ 1st. They’ll crack the majors at some point, but it might not be in a full time role.

Cole Henry WASH, RHP, 22.9 – 3 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 5/1 K/BB at Double-A. The fastball sat in the mid 90’s, his control was strong, and the secondaries were getting whiffs. He’s an exciting pitching prospect who doesn’t get the hype he deserves.

Ty Madden DET, RHP, 22.1 – Madden didn’t want to be outdone by his fellow 2021 1st round pitchers who had strong starts on Saturday, so he went out on Sunday and went 4 IP with 1 hit, 1 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB at High-A. His fastball reached 99 MPH. This year’s entire rookie class has been dominating on every level.

Alex Binelas BOS, 3B, 21.10 – Speaking of the 2021 rookie class, Binelas cracked a monster opposite field homer as he continued his assault on High-A pitching. He’s 5 for 11 with 2 steals and a 3/2 K/BB in 3 games. The power isn’t in question, so the plate approach is what to watch.

Jhailyn Ortiz PHI, OF, 23.5/Rece Hinds CIN, 3B, 21.7 – Two large humans did what large humans tend to do on a baseball field, and that is hit for power as both Ortiz and Hinds hit their first homer of the year. Ortiz’ homer came at Double-A, and Hinds’ came at High-A.

Cody Bellinger LAD, OF/1B, 26.9 – 2 for 3 with a 1/1 K/BB. We have a pulse.

Jo Adell LAA, OF, 23.0 – 0 for 9 with 7/0 K/BB on the season. No pulse.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR A TON MORE OF THESE DYNASTY RUNDOWNS ALL SEASON, PLUS MONTHLY DYNASTY AND PROSPECTS RANKINGS UPDATES

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on October 18, 2021November 12, 2021 by Michael Halpern

St. Louis Cardinals 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

I decided to switch it up a little bit, and instead of only doing a Top 10 Prospect list, I wanted to highlight some MLB guys too and talk some team specific strategy for every team to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the St. Louis Cardinals 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-Dynasty Team Reports for every team (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)
–Positional Dynasty Rankings
-A slow rollout and early access to my 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
-End of Season 2021 Top 466 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
-End of Season 2021 Top 322 Dynasty Prospects Rankings

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks/Baltimore Orioles/Chicago White Sox/Miami Marlins/Milwaukee Brewers/Minnesota Twins/New York Yankees/Oakland Athletics/Philadelphia Phillies/St. Louis Cardinals

Hitters

Tyler O’Neill STL, OF, 26.9 – Who needs a good plate approach anyway? O’Neill is just a power/speed glutton, smashing 34 homers with a 93 MPH EV, and stealing 15 bags with a 29.7 ft/s sprint speed. There is tons of risk with a 31.3%/7.1% K%/BB% and 34.7% whiff%, but you can’t rule out improvement there with only 892 MLB AB under his belt. The BA is certainly coming down, but the power/speed combo is elite, and I’m willing to take on the risk for that upside 2022 Projection: 85/32/86/.263/.337/.510/13

Dylan Carlson STL, OF, 23.5 – Carlson is basically the anti Tyler O’Neill, putting together a yawner of a year, but sometimes boring can be good. He put up a 113 wRC+ in his rookie year which is quite good, he showed a mature plate approach with a 24.6%/9.2% K%/BB%, and he showed the ability to lift the ball with a 15.1 degree launch angle. He also popped off in his final 16 games with 5 homers and a 1.157 OPS to show what could be in store for the future. Carlson is a major buy this off-season. 2022 Projection: 89/23/79/.273/.350/.468/5

Starting Pitching

Jack Flaherty STL, RHP, 26.6 – I’m starting to grow a bit concerned with Flaherty. He put up a 5.07 xERA in 2020 and a 4.83 xERA in 2021. He missed time with an oblique strain earlier in the year and then with a shoulder strain later in the year, and his velocity was down a bit when he returned from those injuries. I guess you can look at this as a buying opportunity, but I would be hesitant to buy at name value price right now. If you can get a discount, then by all means. 2022 Projection: 10/3.83/1.18/181 in 168 IP

Adam Wainwright STL, RHP, 40.7 – Wainwright is a reminder that age can be such a dominating factor for dynasty owners, that older players can consistently get undervalued. He was a major reason why the eventual champion in my 12 team QS Dynasty League pulled away from the pack in the 2nd half of the season after I stupidly turned down multiple opportunities to trade for him myself before the deadline (I snuck into 2nd place on the final day of the season). He’s outperformed his xERA, xFIP, and FIP for the last 3 years, so I’m not exactly going after him, but I’m not going to completely dismiss him either. 2022 Projection: 11/3.95/1.27/156 in 175 IP

Bullpen

Alex Reyes STL, RHP, 27.7 – Reyes rightfully lost the closer job to Gallegos late in the year, and now has his eye on a rotation spot for 2022. He certainly has the arsenal to do it with a 5 pitch mix headlined by a 96.6 MPH 4-seamer and an elite slider, but his control is truly atrocious with a 16.4% BB%. He’s the ultimate high risk/high reward pitcher. If he improves his control, there is legitimate ace upside, but there is also a really good chance he ends up a high WHIP middle reliever. I’m prone to lean upside in fantasy, so I’ll definitely be willing to “overpay” by a few bucks (or a few rounds) in leagues where he is available this off-season. 2022 Projection: 7/3.89/1.34/130 in 115 IP

St. Louis Cardinals Top 10 Dynasty Prospects

1) Nolan Gorman STL, 3B/2B, 21.11 – Gorman’s hit tool took a huge step forward this year. He brought his K% down to 22% in the upper levels of the minors (29.7% in 2019), and he didn’t sacrifice much power with 25 homers in 119 games (and he’s already knocked one out in 3 games in the Arizona Fall League). The ingredients are there for him to become a complete middle of the order masher. 2022 Projection: 38/12/36/.248/.312/.445/2 Prime Projection: 83/28/90/.266/.339/.491/4

2) Jordan Walker STL, 3B, 19.10 – Walker has huge raw power at 6’5”, 220 pounds, and he got to a lot of it in his pro debut with 25 doubles, 4 triples, and 14 homers in 82 games split between Single-A and High-A. He’s also a good athlete for his size as he snagged 14 bags. While his plate approach regressed at High-A (27%/6.1% K%/BB%), it looked more advanced than expected at the age appropriate Single-A (17.2%/14.8% K%/BB%). He’s far from a finished product, but there is star upside. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 86/29/93/.262/.344/.502/8

3) Juan Yepez STL, 1B/3B/OF, 24.0 – Yepez completely destroyed the upper levels of the minors, slashing .286/.383/.586 with 27 homers and a 18.9%/11.8% K%/BB% in 111 games at mostly Triple-A. He carried that right over to the Arizona Fall League, going 3 for 10 with a homer, double, and 2/1 K/BB in 3 games. He’s always made solid contact throughout his minor league career and was showing seeds of a power breakout in 2019 before exploding in 2021. He’s not great on defense and he doesn’t exactly have a position, but you can’t ignore those offensive numbers. 2022 Projection: 21/5/25/.241/.303/.434/1 Prime Projection: 73/24/81/.258/.325/.470/3

4) Matthew Liberatore STL, LHP, 22.5 – Liberatore was given an aggressive assignment, jumping straight from Single-A in 2019 to Triple-A in 2021. He was a bit up and down in the first half, but he finished the season strong with a 2.55 ERA and 53/14 K/BB in his final 53 IP, which is a great sign. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but he has plus command of a 4 pitch mix and he knows how to pitch. 2022 Projection: 4/4.37/1.32/73 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.91/1.22/182 in 190 IP

5) Masyn Winn STL, SS/RHP, 20.0 – Winn might actually have a shot at being a two way player as he has explosive tools as both a pitcher and hitter. At the very least it gives him a legitimate back up plan if he can’t make enough of an impact at the plate. As for his hitting, he didn’t show much power in his pro debut with only 5 homers in 97 games split between Single-A and High-A, but there is more power coming down the line, and he had the wheels working with 32 steals in 37 attempts (obligatory disclaimer: rule changes made stealing bases easier at Single-A and High-A). He put up a 112 wRC+ in 61 games at Single-A before struggling at High-A with a 48 wRC+ in 36 games. As a pitcher, St. Louis gave him one inning towards the end of the season to show his stuff, and he impressed with a mid 90’s fastball and a nasty breaking ball. He pitched a clean inning with one K. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 77/15/62/.261/.320/.415/17 – 2/3.95/1.31/36 in 30 IP

6) Joshua Baez STL, OF, 18.9 – Drafted 54th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Baez was one of the youngest players in the draft and has one of the best power projections, notching a 102 MPH exit velocity at a Perfect Game event. He’s also relatively fast with a 6.67 60 yard dash time, showing he is not just a lumbering slugger. He doesn’t project for major strikeout issues, but there is some swing and miss to his game. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/25/84/.253/.336/.473/8

7) Ivan Herrera STL, C, 21.10 – Power broke out with 17 homers in 98 games at Double-A (played 1 game at Triple-A), and the plate approach remained strong with a 22%/13.7% K%/BB%. He’s not going to be a league winner, but he should be in the top 12 catcher conversation at peak. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 69/20/73/.271/.342/.448/2

8) Alec Burleson STL, OF, 23.4 – Burleson was drafted 70th overall in 2020 on the back of his strong hit tool, but there was definitely more power in the tank at 6’2”, 212 pounds. That power was unleashed in 2021 as he cracked 22 homers in 119 games split between 3 levels (A+/AA/AAA). He didn’t sacrifice his hit tool to get to it either as he put up a 20.1%/8.3% K%/BB%. The ceiling might not be huge, but he has a chance to be a damn good overall hitter. 2022 Projection: 8/2/11/.245/.300/.410/0 Prime Projection: 68/20/75/.273/.330/.453/2

9) Michael McGreevy STL, RHP, 21.9 – Drafted 18th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, McGreevy is a control artist who had a 1.5 BB/9 in his college career over 189.1 IP. The stuff isn’t huge with a low 90’s sinker and 3 secondaries (curve-best secondary, slider, change), but he’s young for his class and there could be more in the tank. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.18/1.26/158 in 170 IP

10) Lars Nootbaar STL, OF, 24.7 – Tink Hence was originally in this #10 spot, but Nootbaar’s AFL performance made me rethink that. He’s going bonkers in Arizona, slashing .314/.437/.643 with 5 homers and a 15/14 K/BB in 18 games. He held his own in his MLB debut with a 101 wRC+, an above average 89.1 MPH exit velocity and an advanced plate approach (22.6%/10/5% K%/BB%). He’s never stolen many bases, but he does have speed with a 28.4 ft/sec sprint speed. I’m worried he’s only a part time player, which is why I didn’t have him in the top 10 to begin with, but he deserves to crack this list. 2022 Projection: 41/10/38/.258/.327/.420/2 Prime Projection: 74/19/68/.272/.338/.448/4

11) Tink Hence STL, RHP, 19.8 – Hence was the 63rd overall pick in the 2020 Draft. He shows good control of a fastball that can reach 96 MPH, to go along with a plus slider and developing changeup. He has an easy delivery with lightening quick arm speed. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/4.12/1.28/167 in 160 IP

Just Missed

12) Luken Baker STL, 1B, 25.1

13) Brendan Donovan STL, 3B/2B, 25.2

14) Zack Thompson STL, LHP, 24.5

Strategy

St. Louis is known for their keen eye on drafting underrated hitters and their top notch ability to develop them. They do such a good job of it that there always seems to be a logjam for playing time, and it can be hard for them to know which ones to keep and which ones to trade. The ones they kept finally had big years, O’Neill especially, but Bader too. Guys like Burleson and Yepez fit this mold exactly, and both will almost certainly end up better values than it will cost to acquire them this off-season. If they can’t find playing time in St. Louis, they will get flipped to a team that does have room for them.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-Dynasty Reports for every team (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)
–Positional Dynasty Rankings
-A slow rollout and early access to my Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
-End of Season Top 466 2021 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
-End of Season Top 322 Dynasty Prospects Rankings

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on January 4, 2021March 3, 2021 by Michael Halpern

Top 50 2020/21 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings

The Sneak Peek Series continues with the Top 50 2020/21 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings. The full FYPD list will be released concurrently with the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings, expected to be out the week after the Super Bowl, sometime between February 8th-14th (2020’s list was out on Feb. 9th). Here is the Top 50 2020/21 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR UP TO DAILY WEEKDAY CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE SEASON, INCLUDING ARTICLES, PODCASTS, RANKINGS, AND OTHER COOL STUFF I THINK UP ALONG THE WAY

Click here for the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

Player Name TEAM, POSITION, AGE (Years.Months on 2021 Opening Day – Months are on a scale of 0-11 … I know it is not mathematically correct, but I do all of this manually)

Projections (Hitters): R/HR/RBI/AVG/OBP/SLG/SB
(Pitchers): Wins/ERA/WHIP/K/Saves

*Prime Projections – These projections are meant to give you a general idea of what I think about a prospect’s future stat profile in a relatively good outcome scenario. I find this helpful as a quick reference to see how a prospect’s tools/skills translate to fantasy categories.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR UP TO DAILY WEEKDAY CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE SEASON, INCLUDING ARTICLES, PODCASTS, RANKINGS, AND OTHER COOL STUFF I THINK UP ALONG THE WAY

1) Spencer Torkelson DET, 3B/1B, 21.7 – Selected 1st overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Tork launched 54 homers in 129 games at Arizona State. He’s a big bodied power hitter with patience, below average speed, and a BA that shouldn’t hurt you. The no brainer pick for #1 overall. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 89/35/102/.270/.353/.529/3

2) Austin Martin TOR, OF, 22.0 – Selected 5th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft but signed for the 2nd largest signing bonus. Martin has a quick bat with natural loft, an advanced plate approach and above average speed. If power fully develops, he will pass Tork as an elite all category stud. A great consolation prize if you missed out on the #1 pick. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 93/23/82/.284/.358/.455/13

3) Zac Veen COL, OF, 19.4 – Selected 9th overall, the 6’4”, 190 pound Veen has a lightening quick lefty swing with natural loft. His patient plate approach, good feel to hit, and at least plus power potential gives him the ingredients to turn into a heart of the order beast. Combine all that with Coors, and Veen has the highest upside on the list. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 86/28/93/.270/.342/.491/10

4) Ha-Seong Kim SD, SS/2B, 25.5 – At 5’9”, 167 pounds Kim has been one of the best players in the KBO since he was 19 years old. He took his game to the next level in 2020, slashing .306/.397/.523 with 30 homers, 23 steals, and a 68/75 K/BB in 138 games. He’s a safe proximity play with the ability to contribute in every category, and there is some nice upside too if the stats translate better than expected. 2021 Projection: 79/19/71/.271/.337/.433/15

5) Nick Gonzales PIT, 2B/SS, 21.10 – Selected 7th overall, the 5’10”, 190 pound Gonzales put up insane numbers in an extreme hitter’s environment at New Mexico State, rocking 12 homers with a .448 BA and 10/21 K/BB in 16 games before the season got shutdown. He performed well in the wood bat Cape Cod League too with 7 homers, a .351 BA and a 22/20 K/BB in 42 games. He has one of the best hit tools in the draft and while he isn’t projected for huge homer or steal totals, he should be an all category stat stuffer. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 86/21/74/.281/.348/.448/9

6) Asa Lacy KC, LHP, 21.10 – Selected 4th overall, Lacy is a 6’4” lefty with a nasty mid 90’s fastball and two potentially plus secondaries in his changeup and slider. His only 4 starts in 2020 were absolutely dominant with a 0.75 ERA and 46/8 K/BB in 24 IP. Walk rates were high in college with a 4.0 BB/9 in 152 IP, but his control/command is better than that number indicates. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 13/3.66/1.23/211 in 186 IP

7) Pete-Crow Armstrong NYM, OF, 19.0 -Selected 19th overall, Armstrong stands out for his plus speed, plus defense, and strong track record of hitting. Power hasn’t been a big part of his game, but he has recently added muscle onto his projectable 6’1” frame, and a 99 MPH exit velocity mark at a 2019 Perfect Game event is damn good. Armstrong is my favorite target in first year player drafts relative to consensus. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 88/18/73/.274/.340/.428/21

8) Max Meyer MIA, RHP, 22.1 – Selected 3rd overall, the 6’0”, 196 pound Meyer is an excellent athlete with an elite fastball/slider combo and a changeup that has the ability to develop into a legitimate third pitch. There is some bullpen risk, but we’ve seen predominantly two pitch starters given the chance to start of late and thrive. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 12/3.74/1.22/191 in 172 IP

9) Emerson Hancock SEA, RHP, 21.10 – Selected 6th overall, Hancock is a 6’4” righty with plus command of a mid 90’s fastball and plus changeup. Slider is inconsistent and will be the key to reaching his full potential. Watching some of his better starts makes you want to place him as the top overall pitcher, but the consistency hasn’t been there. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 12/3.83/1.20/186 in 178 IP

10) Garrett Mitchell MIL, OF, 22.7 – Selected 20th overall, Mitchell builds his game around double plus speed and plus centerfield defense. At 6’3”, 215 pounds the plus raw power is in there, but he hasn’t been able to tap into yet with a low launch angle and 0 homers in 15 games in 2020 (6 homers in 62 game in 2019). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 82/16/66/.266/.328/.419/24

11) Cristian Hernandez CHC, SS, 17.3 – At 6’2”, 175 pounds Hernandez takes vicious hacks at the dish, foreshadowing monster power potential when his projectable frame fills out. He also gets high marks for his athleticism, feel to hit, and plus speed. The top international prospects consistently get underrated in first year player drafts, so while the risk is high, the discount in drafts mitigates that. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 83/26/87/.273/.341/.479/14

12) Wilman Diaz LAD, SS, 17.4 – At 6’2”, 170 pounds Diaz is a plus athlete who has displayed a good feel to hit and the ability to hit it with authority in Venezuelan youth leagues. The power potential is plus as he gains strength, and he should retain enough speed to steal 10+ bags even as he gains weight. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 87/22/79/.281/.352/.462/14

13) Garrett Crochet CHW, LHP, 21.9 – Selected 11th overall, Crochet made it all the way up to the Majors and unleashed an unhittable, double plus 100.1 MPH fastball. He’s never been a full time starter, so bullpen risk is high, although his upside would be considerable as a closer. Injury risk is high too as shoulder soreness delayed the start of his college season and he suffered a flexor strain to his forearm to end his season during the MLB playoffs. 2021 Projection: 2/4.23/1.33/34 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.77/1.28/185 in 161 IP

14) Heston Kjerstad BAL, OF, 22.2 – Selected 2nd overall, the 6’3”, 220 pound Kherstad has at least plus power and put up impressive home run totals from day 1 in the SEC, knocking 37 homers in 150 career games. The K/BB numbers are suspect (129/54), but he was in the midst of a Junior year breakout before the season got shutdown (6 homers with a 9/7 K/BB in 16 games). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 73/28/88/.251/.320/.482/3

15) Austin Hendrick CIN, OF, 19.10 – Selected 12th overall, Hendrick generates incredible bat speed with at least plus power potential. He put up a 105 MPH exit velocity at a Perfect Game event in 2019, which puts him in elite territory for his class. On the downside, there is some swing and miss concerns, he’s old for his class, and he hasn’t consistently faced the toughest competition. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 76/29/89/.252/.334/.490/6

16) Bryce Jarvis ARI, RHP, 23.3 – Selected 18th overall, Jarvis took a major step forward in 2020 with his fastball ticking up into the mid 90’s. He refined his breaking balls to become above average pitches and showed much improved control. He didn’t have the opportunity to prove he can do it for more than 27 IP, but he now has the chance for 4 above average pitches (fastball, curve, slider, change) with above average control/command. Along with Pete-Crow Armstrong, Jarvis is a player I’m targeting everywhere relative to price. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 12/3.82/1.26/188 in 172 IP

17) Mick Abel PHI, RHP, 19.8 – Selected 15th overall, Abel is your prototypical projectable high school pitcher at 6’5”, 190 pounds with a potentially plus 3 pitch mix (fastball, slider, change). He throws strikes but he’s more control over command right now. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 13/3.72/1.23/192 in 184 IP

18) Carlos Colmenarez TB, SS, 17.4 – At 5’10”, 175 pounds Colmenarez has a quick, compact lefty swing with natural loft that should lead to more power as he ages. He’s hit well in games and is an average runner with above average potential. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 80/23/80/.275/.343/.453/10

19) Robert Hassell SD, OF, 19.8 – Selected 8th overall, Hassell has the consensus top hit tool in the high school class, but hasn’t hit for very much power and doesn’t project for huge power numbers down the line either. A 91 MPH top exit velocity mark at Perfect game events in 2019 isn’t bad, but it’s not great either. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 87/16/69/.286/.348/.416/15

20) Austin Wells NYY, C, 21.9 – Selected 28th overall, the lefty hitting Wells is an offensive minded catcher with a patient approach and power to all fields. College home run totals don’t exactly jump out at you (14 homers in 112 games including the Cape), and there are strikeout issues (103 K’s), but the Yankee Stadium short porch should help the power play up and his ability to hit to all fields gives him the chance to hit for average even with high strikeout totals. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 77/24/83/.268/.341/.458/5

21) Tomoyuki Sugano FA, RHP, 31.6 – One of the best pitchers in Japan since 2013, Sugano is known for his pinpoint control (1.6 BB/9) rather than gaudy strikeout totals (8.6 K/9). He throws a low 90’s fastball with two different sliders and a split finger as his best secondary. 2021 Projection: 10/4.28/1.27/148 in 162 IP

22) Reid Detmers LAA, LHP, 21.9 – Selected 10th overall, Detmers is a 6’2” lefty with plus command over low 90’s heat and a deadly curveball. He’s polish over stuff, but it didn’t stop him from piling up K’s in college (19.6 K/9 in 22 IP in 2020). Change has the potential to be above average while the slider lags behind. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 11/3.92/1.26/188 in 179 IP

23) Yoelqui Cespedes CHW, OF, 23.6 – Cespedes recently packed on muscle weight and revamped his swing in order to get more power out of his 5’9”, 205 pound frame. He’s a plus runner and he has the bloodlines, so while he is mostly still a mystery and I see he is getting ranked lower in other places, I’m willing to take my shot at this point in the draft. You also won’t have to wait 4-5 years to see what you have. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 76/19/72/.255/.323/.430/16

24) Pedro Leon HOU, OF, 22.10 – Leon is an explosive athlete who has dominated in Cuba over two seasons, slashing .359/.420/.678 with 21 homers, 8 steals and a 46/20 K/BB in 65 games. He doesn’t have a long professional track record and the hit tool is questionable, but the upside is high. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 77/22/74/.243/.326/.443/12

25) Pedro Pineda OAK, OF, 17.7 – Pineda has possibly the highest upside in the international class with a plus power/speed combo and a quick bat that is geared for flyballs. He’s had some swing and miss problems and is still raw at the plate, so the risk is high. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 73/24/81/.248/.327/.458/15

26) Aaron Sabato MIN, 1B, 21.10 – Selected 27th overall, Sabato is a 6’2”, 230 pound 1B only prospect who smashed 25 homers in 83 games in the ACC. He’s a patient hitter with some swing and miss concerns. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 68/25/81/.252/.337/.469/0

27) Justin Foscue TEX, 2B/3B, 22.0 – Selected 14th overall, Foscue has the potential for plus hit but doesn’t have big power or speed. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 83/19/71/.276/.339/.434/5

28) Ed Howard CHC, SS, 19.8 – Selected 16th overall, Howard’s best skill is his plus shortstop defense. The bat isn’t as strong, although he has hit well against top competition and will certainly add power at 6’2”, 185 pounds. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 79/20/77/.264/.332/.444/9

29) Nick Bitsko TB, RHP, 18.10 – Selected 24th overall, Bitsko is one of the youngest players in the draft due to reclassifying and coming out a year early. At 6’4”, 220 pounds he has prototypical starter size with a fastball that has touched 98 MPH and features a nasty curveball as his money pitch. He throws strikes and shows good feel on his lesser used changeup. Underwent surgery to repair a labrum issue in December and is expected to miss some of 2021. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 11/3.93/1.29/181 in 178 IP

30) Isaiah Greene NYM, OF, 19.7 – Selected 69th overall, Greene is a 6’1”, 180 pound lefty with plus speed and a swing geared for contact. He’s a great athlete with room to fill out his frame, so the power may come. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 82/17/68/.272/.336/.419/20

31) Jordan Walker STL, 3B, 18.10 – Selected 21st overall, Walker is 6’5”, 220 pounds with a quick swing and plus power. Like many hitters this tall, there are questions about the ultimate hit tool. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 75/25/82/.261/.330/.467/7

32) Jake Vogel LAD, OF, 19.6 – Selected 100th overall, Vogel’s calling card is his double plus speed and excellent athleticism. He’s only 5’11”, 165 pounds, but he has sneaky pop evidenced by a top exit velocity of 97 MPH at a 2019 Perfect game event, which puts him in the top 4% of his class. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 77/18/73/.262/.326/.420/22

33) Tanner Burns CLE, RHP, 22.3 – Selected 36th overall, Burns has a history of excellent production in the SEC with a pitching line of 2.86/1.17/210/67 in 188.2 career IP. He has plus command over a fastball he can ramp up to 97 MPH, to go along with a plus breaking ball and average change. He’s on the small side at 6’0”, 215 pounds and had shoulder problems in 2019, so durability is a concern. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.15/1.27/162 in 168 IP

34) Maikol Hernandez BAL, SS, 17.6 – At 6’3”, 175 pounds Hernandez has loads of upside with plus speed and the potential for plus power. He’s currently an all fields, line drive hitter who consistently makes hard contact. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 73/24/78/.259/.327/.452/13

35) Cade Cavalli WASH, RHP, 22.7 – Selected 22nd overall, Cavalli has a prototypical starter build at 6’4”, 226 pounds with mid 90’s heat, two swing and miss breaking balls, and a developing changeup. He’s had injury issues which has prevented him from pitching very much and there are control problems too, so the risk is high. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.06/1.33/155 in 156 IP

36) Bobby Miller LAD, RHP, 22.0 – Selected 29th overall, Miller is 6’5”, 220 pounds with a plus fastball that reaches the upper 90’s, a plus slider, and a potentially plus changeup. 2020 was the first year he was going to be a full time starter, and his delivery indicates some bullpen risk. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/3.92/1.29/149 in 151 IP

37) Zach DeLoach SEA, OF, 22.7 – Selected 43rd overall, DeLoach exploded in the 2019 Cape Cod League with a .353/.428/.541 triple-slash after disappointing with a .611 OPS in the SEC earlier that year. He carried over the Cape Cod league success in 2020 with a 1.336 OPS, 6 steals and a 3/14 K/BB in 18 games. He doesn’t have any elite tools, but has the chance to be an all category contributor. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/20/76/.267/.329/.437/10

38) Tyler Soderstrom OAK, C, 19.4 – Selected 26th overall, Soderstrom is an offensive minded catcher with the potential to hit for both average and power, but is not a lock to stick behind the plate. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 68/22/76/.268/.335/.446/4

39) Jhonny Piron TB, OF, 17.2 – At 6’1”, 165 pounds Piron is tooled up with excellent athleticism, plus speed and power projection, but needs to continue refining his hit tool. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 77/20/74/.256/.323/.442/14

40) Jared Shuster ATL, LHP, 22.8 – Selected 25th overall, Shuster showed dramatically improved control in the 2019 Cape Cod League (1.4 BB/9 in 32 IP), and not only did he maintain that in 26.1 IP in 2020 (1.4 BB/9), but he also increased his fastball velocity by about 4 MPH with the ability to hit 97 MPH. His best pitch is a plus changeup to go along with an average slider. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.21/1.30/168 in 173 IP

41) Jared Kelley CHW, RHP, 19.5 – Selected 47th overall, Kelley throws mid 90’s gas with a plus changeup, but lacks feel on his breaking ball. The upside is considerable if the breaking ball improves, but if it doesn’t he may end up in the pen. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 10/3.98/1.31/158 in 155 IP

42) Cole Wilcox TB, RHP, 21.9 – Selected 80th overall, Wilcox was starting to show improved control with only 2 walks in 23 IP before the season got shutdown (5.7 BB/9 in 2019). It’s a good sign as the stuff is nasty with a mid 90’s fastball, potentially plus slider and developing change. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.08/1.33/161 in 158 IP

43) Jordan Westburg BAL, SS, 22.1 – Selected 30th overall, Westburg has the raw talent to be a plus power/speed combo, but he hasn’t been able to tap into his raw power with only 10 homers in 124 NCAA games, and the hit tool is also a concern with high strikeout rates throughout his career. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 75/15/68/.246/.318/.420/13

44) Dillon Dingler DET, C, 22.6 – Selected 38th overall, Dingler was just starting to tap into his raw power in 2020 with 5 homers in 13 games. He’s a plus athlete for a catcher with the chance to steal a handful of bases, which is always nice to get from your catcher position. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 69/17/63/.260/.323/.421/7

45) Clayton Beeter LAD, RHP, 22.6 – Selected 66th overall, Beeter has impressive stuff with a mid to upper 90’s fastball and the potential for two plus breaking balls. 2020 was his first year as a starter in college, and while the numbers are impressive (2.14 ERA with a 33/4 K/BB), it came in only 21 IP and he had a 8.7 BB/9 in 20.2 IP in 2019. Reliever risk is high. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 7/3.83/1.32/141 in 127 IP

46) Hudson Haskin BAL, OF, 22.3 – Selected 39th overall, Haskin has shown the ability to hit for hard contact with strong plate approach numbers at Tulane, slashing .363/.457/.612 with 11 homers and a 39/40 K/BB in 73 career games. He’s a plus defender with plus speed although it only resulted in 5 career NCAA stolen bases. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 76/18/70/.263/.324/.426/9

47) Jared Jones PIT, RHP, 19.8 – Selected 44th overall, Jones is a great athlete with a mid to upper 90’s fastball, potentially plus slider and developing change. Control has been spotty and he doesn’t have ideal size at 6’1”, 180 pounds. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/4.11/1.34/154 in 151 IP

48) Owen Caissie CHC, OF, 18.9 – Selected 45th overall, Caissie is young for his high school class and has plus raw power with above average speed at 6’4”, 190 pounds, but it comes with strikeout issues. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 73/24/79/.238/.321/.462/9

49) Jordan Nwogu CHC, OF, 22.1 – Selected 88th overall, Nwogu is 6’3”, 235 pounds with a plus power/speed combo and very strong numbers in his 3 years in the Big Ten, slashing .334/.430/.545 with 20 homers, 30 steals, and a 96/63 K/BB in 125 career games. There are some concerns over his swing, but the upside is considerable. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/23/77/.253/.325/.457/14

50) Blaze Jordan BOS, 3B, 18.3 – Selected 89th overall, Jordan has been known for his prodigious raw power for years now, consistently putting up impressive exit velocity numbers, but limited defensive value means he’s likely going to have to hit his ceiling to see everyday at-bats. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 67/25/79/.250/.325/.473/4

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)