Jose Butto – Imaginary Brick Wall

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys and talk some team specific strategy for every team to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the New York Mets 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

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–A Top 18 Sneak Peek of my 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings with more early releases coming all off-season
-Dynasty Team Reports for every team (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)
–Positional Dynasty Rankings
-End of Season 2021 Top 466 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
-End of Season 2021 Top 322 Dynasty Prospects Rankings

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Arizona Diamondbacks–Baltimore Orioles=Chicago White Sox=Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Yankees–Oakland Athletics–Philadelphia Phillies–Seattle Mariners–St. Louis Cardinals

Hitters

Francisco Lindor NYM, SS, 28.4 – Baseball players are human beings. When you’ve spent your entire career, from the time you were 17 years old, with one organization, it is going to take time to adjust to a new city, new fans, new teammates, coaches, expectations etc … And that goes doubly when that new city is New York. And even if you don’t buy into all that mumbo jumbo, his underlying numbers in 2021 were almost exactly in line with career norms. He just got a bit unlucky this year. One thing slightly outside of his career norms was that he swung and missed at a career worst rate (23.2% whiff%), but he offset that with a career best 11.1% BB%. Lindor is an easy buy this off-season. 2022 Projection: 93/29/85/.267/.344/.482/17

Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 27.4 – Alonso quietly took a huge step forward with his contact ability, notching career bests in K% (19.9% vs. 25.5% in 2020) and whiff% (24.9% vs. 30.4% in 2020). He also had a career best 91 MPH EV. And while it led to an excellent season (37 homers and a 133 wRC+ in 152 games), there is now potential for him to put up some truly historic seasons as he enters his peak years. I would buy high on Alonso. 2022 Projection: 94/45/112/.268/.357/.561/2

Starting Pitchers

Jacob deGrom NYM, RHP, 33.9 – You almost have to do a double take when looking at deGrom’s season numbers. 1.08 ERA? 0.55 WHIP? 45.1%/3.4% K%/BB%? Give me a second to pick my jaw up off the ground. Of course, in this flawed universe we live in, there always has to be a yang to the yin. He put up those numbers in only 92 IP because of a partial tear in the UCL of his elbow. He already started to throw side sessions at the end of September, so the hope is that he will be 100% for 2022, but it certainly adds a healthy dose of injury risk. 2022 Projection: 13/2.48/0.93/258 in 175 IP

Tylor Megill NYM, RHP, 26.8 – Megill quickly cruised through the upper levels of the minors before immediately impressing in his MLB debut, putting up a 26.1%/7.1% K%/BB% and 3.87 xERA in 89.2 IP. He has the stuff to back up the numbers with an above average 3 pitch mix led by his 94.6 MPH fastball. His 4.52 ERA should keep the hype in check, and I’m planning on grabbing Megill for cheap in every size league I play in this off-season. 2022 Projection: 8/3.90/1.27/161 in 155 IP

Bullpen

Edwin Diaz NYM, Closer, 28.0 – Diaz’ ERA jumped to 3.45, but everything in his underlying numbers shows he is still elite with a 2.63 xERA. His 4 seamer and slider both hit a career high in velocity at 98.8 MPH and 90.6 MPH. His strikeouts did dip a bit, but with a 35.1% whiff% and 34.6% K%, he is still in rarified air. 2022 Projection: 3/2.76/1.10/94/34 saves in 61 IP

New York Mets Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects

1) Francisco Alvarez NYM, C, 20.4 – Alvarez is a bulldog at the plate at 5’10”, 233 pounds with massive raw power and a precocious plate approach. He put up a silly 227 wRC+ with a 10.4%/22.4% K%/BB% in 15 games at the age appropriate Single-A before he went to High-A and bashed 22 homers in 82 games. This is a do it all, middle of the order bat who has a good chance of sticking at catcher. Rutschman is going to have some competition for that top spot in a couple years. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/30/92/.272/.355/.495/4

2) Mark Vientos NYM, 3B, 22.4 – Vientos is 6’4, 185 pounds and was a power breakout waiting to happen. It happened. He crushed 22 homers in 72 games at Double-A and then he cracked 3 homers in 11 games at Triple-A to close the season. His strikeout rate spiked with the power to 28.4% at Double-A (30.2% at Triple-A), so there is risk, but his power has true elite potential. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 76/32/88/.248/.327/.502/1

3) Brett Baty NYM, 3B, 22.4 – Baty personifies the proverbial “professional at-bat.” He slashed .292/.382/.473 with 12 homers and a 25.5%/11.9% K%/BB% in 91 games split between High-A and Double-A. There is some swing and miss to his game (39.3% K% in 13 AFL games) and while he has at least plus power, his groundball percentage is way too high to take advantage of it (61.2% at Double-A). He would rank #2 on an OBP Ranking. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 83/25/81/.269/.353/.477/4

4) Alex Ramirez NYM, OF, 19.2 – I fell in love with Ramirez the second I saw his Youtube international prospect hype videos a few years ago. He remains a high upside lottery ticket who the Mets thought enough of to send straight to full season ball for his pro debut. He managed to hold his own with a near average 96 wRC+ and a respectable triple-slash of .258/.326/..384 with 5 homers, 16 steals and a 31.1%/6.9% K%/BB% in 76 games. He’s a projectable 6’3”, 170 pounds with a wicked righty swing and a potentially plus power/speed combo. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/23/81/.263/.331/.452/17

5) Ronny Mauricio NYM, SS, 21.0 – The power breakout arrived for the 6’3” Mauricio as he ripped 20 homers in 108 games at mostly High-A (1 homer in 8 games at Triple-A). He also cranked out this bomb a few days ago in LIDOM (Dominican Winter League). The plate approach is still raw with a 24.7%/5.7% K%/BB%, but 2021 was a step in the right direction to reaching his considerable upside. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 74/24/81/.261/.323/.465/7

6) Matt Allan NYM, RHP, 20.11 – Allan underwent Tommy John surgery in May of 2021 which may keep him out until towards the end of the 2022 season. When healthy, he throws a mid 90’s fastball with a plus, high spin rate curveball and a changeup that was getting rave reviews at the alt site in 2020. He’s only pitched 10.1 professional innings in his career, and is now undergoing major arm surgery, so the risk is high, but so is the upside. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 12/3.83/1.25/175 in 160 IP

7) Khalil Lee NYM, OF, 23.9 – Lee has put up elite walk rates throughout his career and it hit a crescendo in 2021 with a career high 18.3% BB% in 102 games at Triple-A. It led to an impressive .951 OPS. He also has plus speed and plus raw power, but his high groundball rates (51.5%) and poor stolen base percentage (8 for 18 in 2021) makes it hard to project big homer and steal totals. His strikeout rates have also always been high with a 29.6% mark in 2021. It’s an interesting mix of tools and skills that has a very wide range of outcomes. 2022 Projection: 31/5/27/.222/.308/.391/4 Prime Projection: 77/18/74/.244/.333/.431/12

8) J.T. Ginn NYM, RHP, 22.10 – Ginn induces extreme groundball rates (64.1% at High-A) with a low 90’s, heavy sinking two seamer that generates a ton of drop and tail action. He combines that with a plus slider and developing changeup. It resulted in a strong season in the lower minors with a pitching line of 3.03/1.05/81/22 in 92 IP split between Single-A and High-A. He had also just undergone Tommy John surgery in March 2020, so he should only get stronger from here. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.06/1.28/159 in 165 IP

9) Carlos Rincon NYM, OF, 24.6 – The 6’3” Rincon has beastly raw power and he has been able to get to all of it his entire professional career with 94 home runs in 479 career games. It was more of the same in 2021 with 22 homers in 101 games at Double-A. He doesn’t have any problem keeping the ball off the ground and while his strikeout rates have always been high, a 26.8% mark in 2021 isn’t that bad. 2022 Projection: 6/2/11/.218/.291/.415/1 Prime Projection: 66/22/72/.243/.318/.475/3

10) Jose Butto NYM, RHP, 24.0 – Butto is the type of pitcher to work fast and throw the ball over the plate. A nasty changeup is his money maker and he combines that with an average slider and a low 90’s fastball that seems pretty hittable. He put together a strong year split between High-A and Double-A with a pitching line of 3.83/1.10/110/24 in 98.2 IP. He has a 4/5 starter profile with mid rotation upside if the fastball or breaking ball tick up. 2022 Projection: 1/4.52/1.35/27 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 8/4.24/1.31/153 in 160 IP

Just Missed

11) Joel Diaz NYM, RHP, 18.1

12) Calvin Ziegler NYM, RHP, 19.6

13) Dominic Hamel NYM, RHP, 23.1

14) Carlos Cortes NYM, OF, 24.5

Strategy Talk

It seemed like things were headed in the right direction when Steve Cohen took over as owner, but it’s been nothing but a hilarity of errors since then. They’ve been turned down by everyone with a pulse for their open front office job. And it turns out one of the people involved in that search is none other than noted baseball mind Chris Christie. Their former GM got fired for a DWI after attending a party at Cohen’s house earlier that night. And all of this just makes me think of a story of one of my favorite comedians, Chris Distefano, told about bombing in front of Steve Cohen at his birthday. He might be a good time to hang out with, but I’m not sure I would want him owning my favorite baseball team. What does all this mean for dynasty owners? Admittedly not much because we still don’t know who is going to be running the show, and the Mets haven’t had any major issues developing talent, except when it comes to pitcher injuries. Even with the circus like atmosphere, I wouldn’t shy away from Mets prospects.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)