Josh Smith – Imaginary Brick Wall

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (6/24/24):

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Luken Baker STL, 1B, 27.3 – Baker is my favorite sneaky stash right now, and my favorite candidate to be the next Christian Walker/Max Muncy/Jesus Aguilar (okay, Aguilar might digging a little deep there, but he had some good seasons). Point being, guys in the Baker bucket can definitely breakout and become legit fantasy contributors. He smashed 2 more homers yesterday, and at 6’4”, 265 pounds, he did it looking like one of those absolute units in the World’s Strongest Man Competition during the wood chopping competition. The dude is country strong, and he used that strength to crack 19 homers in just 65 games at Triple-A. The 91.5 MPH EV backs up the power, not like there was any doubt. The cherry on top is that the contact rates and plate approach are also really good with a 19.8%/14.8% K%/BB%. He’s old for the level, but he’s hit very well in the minors since he entered pro ball at 21. The guy can rake, and with Paul Goldschmidt in his final year under contract, I think there is a path for St. Louis to give Baker a real shot in the future, maybe even at the trade deadline (although with St. Louis climbing back in the race, that might be less likely). Either way, the guy is likely freely available in the vast majority leagues, and there is legit potential for him to make a big impact if he gets the opportunity. I ranked him relatively high at #148 on the Updated Top 305 Prospects Rankings (Patreon).

Matt Shaw CHC, 3B, 22.7 – On the other end of the spectrum from a 6’4”, 265 pound, no hype behemoth, the normal human being sized, fully hyped Matt Shaw, all 5’9”, 185 pounds of him soaking wet, also went deep for 2 bombs. That’s the beauty of baseball. You can be good at any size. It reminds me of that picture of Judge and Altuve standing together. Shaw was having a solid season at Double-A all year, but he’s really come alive of late, slashing .296/.386/.561 with 7 homers, 7 steals, and a 20/15 K/BB in his last 25 games. That is all encompassing dominance in the upper minors, and it sure seems like he’s ready for his next challenge, which will probably be Triple-A. But once he gets to Triple-A, he could get the call at any moment to take over their 3B of the future job. He’s an elite prospect.

Brock Wilken MIL, 3B, 22.0 – Wilken was able to hit only 1 homer yesterday. Pretty lame if you ask me. But at least he was mean enough to absolutely obliterate it deep off the batter’s eye in centerfield. This man steps up to the plate with bad intentions with double plus power. Getting hit in the face with a pitch early in the season kinda put a dent in his season (and his face), but he’s been finding a groove of late with a .871 OPS and 3 homers in his last 16 games at Double-A. The hit tool is a definite risk with a 26.6% K% over that time, but you’re buying the power here, and he has plenty of it at 6’4”, 225 pounds.

George Wolkow CHW, OF, 18.5 – Wolkow looks down and laughs at these 6’4” midgets, standing a proper 6’7”, 239 pounds, and quite frankly, he has the most graceful, athletic swing of them all. Just watch him smoke this homer the opposite way with a mere flick of the wrist. He was one of my favorite prospects this off-season, and he’s been even more “fun” once his season got going with 5 homers, 3 steals, a .798 OPS and a 47% K% in 31 games split between rookie ball and Single-A. The K% jumped to 55.4% at Single-A. That is definitely a silly K rate, and if it makes you want to write him off, I totally get it. But personally, I’m blinded by how great of an athlete he is, and considering he’s still just 18 years old with only 44 pro games under his belt, I want to give him some time to figure it out. He’s the type who can thrive with a 30% K% rate, but obviously he has a long way to go to even get to that point.

Max Scherzer TEX, RHP, 39.10 – Scherzer made his season debut, and while he certainly didn’t look in prime form, the guy still pitched extremely well, going 5 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 4/0 K/BB vs. KCR. He’s the type of guy who will be throwing brushback pitches at 70 years old in the old timers game. The fastball sat only 92.9 MPH, and he only put up a 23% whiff% on the day, but I mean, he just pitched a 1 hitter (in 5 innings) at almost 40 years old coming off back surgery and a thumb injury. Legend stuff right there, and I’m apt to say he’s a target for a win now team. Hopefully his current owner won’t rake you over the coals too much based on name value, but on second thought, maybe he/she should.

Paul Skenes PIT, RHP, 22.0 – The last time I mentioned Skenes in a Rundown I said that would be the last time I mention him, because his dominance is becoming routine, but he’s just too fun not to mention right now. He threw another gem, going 7 IP with 6 hits, 1 ER, and a 8/1 K/BB vs. TBR. He now has a 2.14 ERA with a 33.7%/4.4% K%/BB% in 46.1 IP. Just to not completely bore you with his ascension to greatness, I will mention that he doesn’t really have a no doubt, slam dunk, elite whiff machine secondary. The splitter is the closest one he has, but a .251 xwOBA with a 34.6% whiff% is more in the good territory than truly outstanding. It’s just nitpicking, because what else is there to say other than he’s the top dynasty pitcher in the game.

Josh Lowe TBR, OF, 26.4 – An oblique strain caused Lowe to get off to a rocky start to the season, but he’s now starting to fully back up his 2023 breakout and cement himself as one of the more exciting young players in the game. He went 3 for 4 with a 97.7 MPH groundout, 94.9 MPH single,, 90.7 MPH single, and 87 MPH double. And he wasn’t doing that damage vs anyone, he was doing it off mostly Paul Skenes. He now has 5 homers, 2 steals, a 120 wRC+, a career best 28.8% whiff%, and a career best 14.9% Barrel% in 29 games. By the end of this season, we may be talking about Lowe as an easy Top 50 dynasty asset, and that might be underselling him. He could be ready to erupt.

Jarred Kelenic ATL, OF, 24.10 – Ronald Acuna who? Jarred Kelenic has been on fire since Acuna went down with the injury, going 1 for 3 with a 383 foot homer off Nestor Cortes yesterday. He’s now slashing .297/.338/.554 with 4 homers, 2 steals, and a 20/4 K/BB in his last 21 games. It brings his season wRC+ up to 111. As much as I want to say this is the breakout we’ve all been waiting for, I’m struggling to do that as his plate approach and swing and miss numbers are still rough. He’s also still struggling vs. lefties, although this was his first dinger off a lefty, so maybe he’s even improving in that area too. I’m buying in that he can be a good player and solid fantasy player, but I’m not yet buying in that he’s ready to explode.

Colt Keith DET, 3B/2B, 22.10 – Keith might finally be arriving. I’ve been preaching patience with him because nothing in the underlying numbers looked too bad, and he’s actually been very sneakily blowing up of late, especially after yesterday’s big day. He went 4 for 5 with a homer off essentially Triple-A pitcher Jonathan Cannon. But they all count, and in his last 32 games he’s slashing .321/.357/.486 with 4 homers, 1 steal, and a 18.3% K%. That is the type of complete hitter we expected, and like I mentioned, everything in the underlying numbers look fine with a nearly average .310 xwOBA on the season. If there is still any type of buy window here based on the lowly .628 OPS on the season, I would be all over it.

Echedry Vargas TEX, 2B/SS, 19.3 – Vargas got more than his fair share of hype this off-season as a rookie ball breakout, and after starting off a bit slow in his first real taste of full season ball, he’s been red hot of late. He lifted off for his 5th homer in 42 games on a 4 for 6 day yesterday, and is now slashing .321/.368/.547 with 3 homers, 3 steals, and a 11/3 K/BB in his last 13 games. He’s showing off the power, speed and contact ability. He’s starting to really percolate and the real hype might be just around the corner. It might be time to grab him if he is still available in your league.

Shay Whitcomb HOU, SS/2B/3B, 25.8 – If you’re looking for upside that isn’t in the form of a teenager who is several years away, Whitcomb could be your man. He’s a 25 year old who is knocking on the door of the bigs at Triple-A, and he’s putting together a monster season. He went 1 for 3 yesterday with a homer and a steal, and he’s now slashing .309/.390/.571 with 17 homers, 13 steals, and a 22.3%/11.3% K%/BB% in 68 games. His hit tool is still 100% a major concern even though it’s been improved this year, and it’s very likely that he is going to have to scratch and claw for playing time. Regardless, he’s a fun high risk, high reward prospect who seems pretty close to getting his shot.

Jackson Jobe DET, RHP, 21.11 – Jobe looked like his usual dominant self in a rehab outing (coming off a hamstring injury) at High-A, throwing 3 perfect innings with 4 K’s. The stuff was absolutely nasty and High-A hitters had no shot at it. Once he gets back in the upper minors and finds his groove, I really don’t think it makes much sense to keep having him waste bullets in the minors. I know he doesn’t have a ton of upper minors experience, but he’s already almost 22 years old and the stuff is quite obviously MLB ready. It doesn’t seem like Detroit is any rush to call him up, so I don’t think you can expect him to be up in short order, but he should get his shot at some point in the 2nd half.

Payton Martin LAD, RHP, 20.1 – Martin had his best outing of his young season after the Dodgers supposedly held him back in extended spring training to manage his workload, going 4 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER, and a 6/2 K/BB at High-A. The fastball was only sitting low to mid 90’s on the stadium gun, but you can definitely see the athletic delivery and lively stuff. He hasn’t shown the same level of stuff and production he showed in 2023 which got a lot of people excited with a 3.99 ERA and 33/23 K/BB in 29.1 IP, but he got a late start, and maybe this will be the jumping off point for him to go on a little heater here.

Spencer Horwitz TOR, 1B/2B/OF, 26.7 – Horowitz drilled 2 homers yesterday which were also his first two homers of the year in the majors. One was a 105.6 MPH shot and the other was a 102.9 MPH shot. He was red hot at Triple-A with a 158 wRC+, and he’s carried that right over into the majors with a 197 wRC+ in 13 games. He’s never been a big home run hitter, but he did have an 89.7 MPH EV at Triple-A, so it’s not like he’s only this light slap hitter. And the plate approach is excellent with a 10%/18% K%/BB% in the majors (15.8%/17% at Triple-A). He’s played mostly 2B, and he’s actually been an above average defensive player there despite playing 1B most of his career. I always found it hard to buy into a 1B prospect with mediocre game power, but he’s definitely showing there is more to his game than that. He’s worth an add, especially with Orelvis Martinez getting busted for PED’s.

Josh Smith TEX, 3B/SS, 26.10 – I’ve been trying my best to ignore Josh Smith this year, maybe his completely non descript name wasn’t doing him any favors either, but he simply refuses to be ignored. He homered yet again yesterday and is now slashing .351/.429/.622 with 5 homers, 3 steals, and a 14%/9% K%/BB% in his last 22 games. He also has an 89.1 MPH EV over that time. There is nothing to nitpick there, he’s been legit. His track record prior to this year was been terrible with well below the Gallo line batting averages the last 2 seasons, and he’s hasn’t hit the ball that hard on the season with a 87.1 MPH EV. Jung is also seemingly getting ready to return within the next week or two, so it’s hard to really recommend him as a full buy. But I recently picked him up in my 12 teamer to cover for Bo Bichette (and with how shit Bichette has been, maybe take over for him), so I’m planning on riding it as long as possible.

Jake Irvin WAS, RHP, 27.4 – Talking about guys who refuse to be ignored, Irvin had another spectacular start, going 6 IP with 3 hits, 1 ER, and a 10/1 K/BB vs. COL. He put up a 39% whiff% on the day on the back of his curve (44% whiff%), fastball (50% whiff%), and changeup (67% whiff%). He now has a 3.13 ERA with a 22%/5.4% K%/BB% in 92 IP. I’m still a little skeptical because he’s never really shown this level of control before, the stuff is good but it’s not really great, and despite this game, there isn’t a huge amount of swing and miss in his game with a below average 23.2% whiff%. I would ride him if you have him, but I wouldn’t be willing to pay up big to get him.

Pablo Lopez MIN, RHP, 28.3 – Nothing like a start vs. Oakland to get you back on track, and Lopez took advantage, going 8 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 14/1 K/BB. I refused to move off him because his underlying numbers looked completely fine with a 3.25 xERA and 27.5%/5.2% K%/BB%. He was bound to right the ship, and while it was only Oakland, he absolutely wrecked them. I think he’s in for a big 2nd half.

Mark Vientos NYM, 3B/1B, 24.6 – Put another one up on the board for my boy Vientos as he obliterated his 7th homer at 109.3 MPH, travelling a cool 451 feet. He was one of my top targets this off-season, and the bat is living up to the hype with a .353 xwOBA, 13.6% Barrel%, and 21.6%/8.0% K%/BB% in 33 games. The cherry on top is that he actually hasn’t been too bad at 3B either. He’s locking in that full time job.

Ethan Salas SDP, C, 18.0 – 0 for 3 with 2 K’s and is now hitting .207 with 1 homer and a 78 wRC+ in 58 games at High-A. Call me crazy, but maybe consider sending him down to Single-A, where he would still be one of the youngest players at the level.

Leodalis De Vries SDP, SS, 17.8 – 0 for 4 with 1 K and is now hitting .194 with 0 homers and a 79 wRC+ in 35 games at Single-A. Call me crazy, but maybe …. eh, never mind, why do I even bother

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)