Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/11/22)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/11/22):

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Heliot Ramos SFG, OF, 22.6 – Ramos made his MLB debut and immediately put up some grown man exit velocities on a 2 for 3 day. He ripped 2 singles at 107.4 MPH and 100.1 MPH. I don’t know if he can carve out a full time role or stick in the majors long term, but if he keeps hitting he’ll give them no choice but to play him.

Francisco Lindor NYM, SS, 28.4 – The Francisco Lindor comeback tour is coming to a town near you as Lindor stole a bag and homered for his first of the year. He now has a 1.054 OPS in his first 4 games. I was about to crack a joke about the homer being against Erick Fedde, but Fedde actually pitched pretty well otherwise (5 IP, 5 hits, 2 ER, 5/2 K/BB).

Hunter Greene CIN, RHP, 22.8 – Greene made his MLB debut and went 5 IP with 4 hits, 3 ER, and a 7/2 K/BB vs a very tough Atlanta lineup. His fastball averaged 99.7 MPH with a 32% whiff%, his slider put up a 45% whiff%, and he used his changeup as a legitimate third pitch with a 14% usage rate. This start only gets me more excited.

Wander Franco TBR, SS, 21.1 – Franco collected 3 more hits in 4 AB and is now 6 for 11 on the season, but more importantly, he snagged his first bag. He was already elite without projecting a ton of steals, so if he starts really running, hang on to your hats.

Andrew Vaughn CHW, 1B, 24.0 – Vaughn is cooking with his 2nd dinger of the year and he tacked on a 98.6 MPH single. I think some people were forgetting about how good this guy is.

Maddux Bruns LAD, LHP, 19.10 – 2 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 4/0 K/BB at Single-A. LA took the high risk, high reward Bruns in the late 1st round with the thought they could fix his control problems, and while it’s only 2 innings, looking good so far. He has a mid 90’s fastball and looked like he was throwing both a big loopy curve and a harder slider. Everything was working. If you are in a league where you have to jump on guys really fast, this is a high upside prospect who could fly up lists if the control gains hold.

Bryan Ramos CHW, 3B/2B, 20.1 – Well lookie lookie here, Ramos did it again, this time with an absolute tank out to left center for his 2nd of the year at High-A. He was one of my players to target in my Hitter Targets Part 1 article in February on Patreon. Get in now if you still can.

Seiya Suzuki CHC, OF, 27.7 – I’ve done more than my fair share of patting myself on the back during week 1, but this is one I wish I could have back. I wasn’t low on Suzuki, but I wasn’t high either, and that is looking like a mistake in the early going. He got ahold of his first dinger, and it was no cheapie either, decimating it at 110.9 MPH. He has a 1.288 OPS on the year.

Rowdy Tellez MIL, 1B, 27.0 – Rowdy Rowdy Tellez is starting to bud that breakout that the underlying numbers easily predicted would happen. He drilled a 107.7 MPH, 424 foot homer for his first of the year. He has a 1.357 OPS in the early going.

Michael Kopech CHW, RHP, 25.11 – 4 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 3/2 K/BB. His fastball sat 95.3 MPH, and while this would be a fine place to sit as a starter, there could be more in the tank as he rounds into mid season form. His secondaries lost some spin and MPH too, but they were relatively effective. Kopech didn’t wow, but considering his delayed start to spring and quick ramp up, this wasn’t too bad.

Julio Urias LAD, LHP, 25.8 – 2 IP, 6 hits, 6 ER, 0/2 K/BB. It was a total disaster for Urias with his velocity down 2.7 MPH to 91.4 MPH. All of his pitches got hit up, resulting in a 95.6 MPH EV against. Let’s hope his stuff comes back with time, but there is no getting around it, this was bad.

Art Warren CIN, Closer (for now), 29.1 – Warren nailed down his first save of the year with his 97.6 MPH fastball and plus slider. Lucas Sims should be back soon, and while I was targeting Sims all off-season, it could get hairy if Warren keeps pitching well. They very well might continue to ride the hot hand here.

Jeremy Pena HOU, SS, 24.5 – Pena keeps rolling with a 3 for 5 day, highlighted by a 98.9 MPH double. He’s struck out a bit with 5 K’s in 16 AB, but seeing him hit the ball this hard is more encouraging.

Joshua Mears SDP, OF, 21.1 – Mears went 4 for 8 with 2 homers and 4 K’s in a doubleheader. Homers and strikeouts are Mears’ bread and butter. My bread and butter …  are bread and butter.

Aeverson Arteaga SFG, SS, 19.1 – Arteaga has struggled in his full season debut with 8 K’s in 11 AB, but he got off the schneid yesterday with his first homer of the year. Considering the high strikeout rate from last year, all the K’s aren’t great.

Kahlil Watson MIA, SS, 18.11 – Make it two straight for Watson, and he completely obliterated this one for his 2nd of the year. He was then pulled from the game after 2 AB for slamming his bat on the ground after grounding out. How dare you show any emotion. If you don’t play the game like an emotionless robot, you sit. It’s 1950’s rules in baseball.

Ryne Nelson ARI, RHP, 24.2 – 5 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 7/0 K/BB. The velocity is still way down at 91.9 MPH, but he continues to be effective in spite of that. Even with the great results, I’m not sure I can just ignore the stuff being down. I’m definitely getting a bit concerned.

Steven Kwan CLE, OF, 24.7 – 5 for 5 and is now 8 for 10 on the year with a 0/3 K/BB in the majors. He doesn’t have big power, and he’s not super fast either with a 27.4 ft/sec sprint speed, so while I don’t think he is going to be a fantasy monster, the contact skills are most certainly translating to the majors.

Hudson Haskin BAL, OF, 23.3 – Once, twice, three times a dinger as Haskin pulled the hat trick and went deep 3 times at Double-A. He’s now 7 for 12 on the year. After hitting only 5 homers in 83 games last year, the power surge is great to see.

Nolan Gorman STL, 3B/2B, 21.11 – Gorman came up one short of the hat trick at Triple-A, knocking two homers out, one vs. a lefty and one vs. a righty. He’s struck out 8 times in 17 AB, which has been a problem for him in the past, so hopefully that number comes down.

Jordan Walker STL, 3B, 19.10 – St. Louis pushed Walker to Double-A, and he’s responded by drilling his first homer of the year on a 109 MPH bullet. Almost more importantly, he has a 1/3 K/BB in 11 AB. Arrow continues to point way up.

Elehuris Montero COL, 1B/OF, 23.7 – Montero tore up Triple-A last year, and he’s back at it this year, crushing his 2nd homer in 22 AB. Can’t wait for Colorado to give him full time at bats when he’s 29 years old.

Robert Hassell SDP, OF, 20.7 – Hassell went the opposite way for his first homer of the year at High-A. He’s now 5 for 11 with 2 steals and a 2/2 K/BB. He can be a top 5 prospect by this time next year.

MJ Melendez KCR, C, 23.4/Shea Langeliers ATL, C, 24.5 – Both of these blocked power hitting catchers hit bombs. It was Langeliers’ 3rd and Melendez’ 1st. They’ll crack the majors at some point, but it might not be in a full time role.

Cole Henry WASH, RHP, 22.9 – 3 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 5/1 K/BB at Double-A. The fastball sat in the mid 90’s, his control was strong, and the secondaries were getting whiffs. He’s an exciting pitching prospect who doesn’t get the hype he deserves.

Ty Madden DET, RHP, 22.1 – Madden didn’t want to be outdone by his fellow 2021 1st round pitchers who had strong starts on Saturday, so he went out on Sunday and went 4 IP with 1 hit, 1 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB at High-A. His fastball reached 99 MPH. This year’s entire rookie class has been dominating on every level.

Alex Binelas BOS, 3B, 21.10 – Speaking of the 2021 rookie class, Binelas cracked a monster opposite field homer as he continued his assault on High-A pitching. He’s 5 for 11 with 2 steals and a 3/2 K/BB in 3 games. The power isn’t in question, so the plate approach is what to watch.

Jhailyn Ortiz PHI, OF, 23.5/Rece Hinds CIN, 3B, 21.7 – Two large humans did what large humans tend to do on a baseball field, and that is hit for power as both Ortiz and Hinds hit their first homer of the year. Ortiz’ homer came at Double-A, and Hinds’ came at High-A.

Cody Bellinger LAD, OF/1B, 26.9 – 2 for 3 with a 1/1 K/BB. We have a pulse.

Jo Adell LAA, OF, 23.0 – 0 for 9 with 7/0 K/BB on the season. No pulse.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR A TON MORE OF THESE DYNASTY RUNDOWNS ALL SEASON, PLUS MONTHLY DYNASTY AND PROSPECTS RANKINGS UPDATES

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

San Diego Padres 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys and talk some team specific strategy for every team to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the San Diego Padres 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
A Top 413 Sneak Peek of my 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings with more early releases coming all off-season
–Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Top 256 OF/Top 122 SS/Top 88 3B/Top 90 2B/Top 78 1B/Top 56 C)
Top 50 First Year Player Draft Rankings (full Top 100 coming out with the Top 1,000 Rankings)
-Dynasty Team Reports for every team (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Previous Teams on Patreon
Arizona DiamondbacksBaltimore Orioles-Boston Red Sox (free)Chicago Cubs (free)Chicago White SoxCincinnati RedsCleveland IndiansColorado RockiesDetroit TigersHouston AstrosKansas City RoyalsLos Angeles Dodgers (free)Miami MarlinsMilwaukee BrewersMinnesota TwinsNew York Mets (free)New York YankeesOakland AthleticsPhiladelphia PhilliesPittsburgh PiratesSeattle MarinersSan Francisco GiantsSt. Louis Cardinals (free)Tampa Bay Rays (free)Texas RangersToronto Blue JaysWashington Nationals

Hitters

Manny Machado SD, 3B, 29.9 – Machado’s underlying power numbers exploded this year, shattering career highs in exit velocity (93.1 MPH), Max EV (119.6 MPH) and HardHit% (52.2%). The gains didn’t really show up in his surface stats with 28 homers and a .836 OPS, but at the very least it is reminder of how elite Machado can be. He’s been a bit inconsistent in his career, going back and forth between great years and solid years since 2017, so if the trend holds, he is in for one hell of a 2022. He doesn’t seem to be getting the respect he deserves in early dynasty drafts, and if you can buy low based on the mediocre surface stats, I would jump on it. 2022 Projection: 94/34/103/.283/.354/.522/10

Trent Grisham SD, OF, 25.5 – Grisham couldn’t maintain his 2020 power breakout with his HardHit% dropping 5 percentage points to 36.8%, his Max EV dropping 2.5 MPH to 109.4 MPH and his launch angle dropping 1.2 degrees to 12.3 degrees. He’s still showing a plus plate approach with plus speed, so if the power ticks back up as he enters his mid 20’s, he can be an above average all category contributor. I’m buying low if I can. 2022 Projection: 84/22/81/.257/.354/.445/15

Ha-Seong Kim SD, SS/3B/2B, 26.5 – Kim was put in position to fail. He is a young player who needs full time at-bats to be given the chance to adjust to MLB pitching. He never really got that shot and he struggled all season with a .622 OPS. The underlying numbers aren’t hopeless though with a solid 23.8%/7.4% K%/BB%, plus runtimes (28.4 ft/s sprint speed), and the ability to lift the ball (13 degree launch angle). He’ll need to hit the ball harder in 2022 (86.8/91 MPH AVG/FB EV) to convince San Diego he deserves a full time job. 2022 Projection: 43/12/47/.241/.310/.412/10

Starting Pitchers

Blake Snell SD, LHP, 29.4 – It took Snell until August to find his groove, but it was a sight to behold when he did with a 1.83 ERA and 65/14 K/BB in 44.1 IP. A left adductor strain (groin), ended his season in mid September, but that shouldn’t be a concern moving forward. He got lit up with a 5.44 ERA in 84.1 IP before that because he completely lost his control with 55 walks. Robbie Ray is a good reminder to never give up on strikeout machines with control problems, especially in fantasy. I’ll take any discount I can get on Snell. He ranked 83rd overall on my Top 413 Sneak Peek of the 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings. 2022 Projection: 11/3.58/1.26/204 in 160 IP

Chris Paddack SDP, RHP, 26.3 – Paddack wasn’t able to bounce back from a down 2020, notching a 5.07 ERA in 108.1 IP. His K% dropped to a career low 21.6% and batters hit him hard with a 90.5 MPH EV against. Even his changeup regressed this year with a slightly below average .315 xwOBA. Along with performance issues, his rotation spot is far from guaranteed. I’m avoiding him in 2022. 2022 Projection: 7/4.23/1.25/116 in 120 IP

Adrian Morejon SDP, LHP, 23.1 – Underwent Tommy John surgery in late April 2021 and will likely be out until mid-season 2022. Morejon was one of my favorite targets last off-season with a 96.3 MPH fastball and 3 potentially plus, swing and miss secondaries in his changeup, curve and slider. He added a sinker to the mix this year and the extremely small sample results were positive with a 30.8% whiff% and negative 3 degree launch angle. He seems mostly forgotten about, but he has the kind of premium stuff that is worth waiting on. He is an easy flier that you can probably get for close to nothing at this point. 2022 Projection: 3/4.12/1.31/62 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.79/1.24/177 in 162 IP

Bullpen

Dinelson Lamet SDP, RHP, 29.8 – Lamet can’t shake the injury bug as elbow/forerm problems limited him to 47 IP and he was moved to the bullpen in September. The fastball/slider combo wasn’t as elite as it was in 2020, but it was still good with a 95.5 MPH fastball and a slider that put up a .204 xwOBA. His role for 2022 is undetermined, and it is possible he ends up as San Diego’s closer. While I don’t mind taking a flier, his name value could push his value higher than I’m willing to pay. 2022 Projection: 5/3.71/1.23/105 in 85 IP

San Diego Padres Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects

1) CJ Abrams SDP, SS, 21.6 – A fractured tibia and sprained MCL ended Abrams season after just 42 games. He proved his plus hit tool and speed will transfer against advanced competition at Double-A, slashing .296/.363/.420 with 2 homers, 13 steals (in 15 attempts), and a 19.7%/8.2% K%/BB% at Double-A. His power isn’t there yet, and there is a chance it will never be a major part of his game, but he still looks pretty skinny to me at 6’2”, 185 pounds and don’t think those man muscles have come in yet. The power will tick up in time. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 95/18/75/.288/.342/.437/27

2) Robert Hassell SDP, OF, 20.7 – Hassell dominated Single-A (139 wRC+) with a plus plate approach (17.2%/13.3% K%/BB%) and speed (31 steals), but he only hit 7 homers in 92 games with a 52.1% GB%. He then went to High-A for 18 games and proved he has the ability to make adjustments to get to his power, jacking 2 homers with a 32.7% GB%. The K% rose with the power to 28.7%, but it’s still a good sign he will eventually be able to put it all together. He’s 6’2’’, 195 pounds, so while he is expected to be a hit tool, speed guy, I wouldn’t rule out a power explosion. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 93/18/74/.277/.358/.446/23

3) James Wood SDP, OF, 19.7 – Selected 62nd overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Wood is a big and athletic lefty at 6’7”, 240 pounds with plus power and above average run times. He dominated rookie ball in his pro debut, slashing .372/.465/.535 with 3 homers, 10 steals and a 31.7%/12.9% K%/BB% in 26 games. Like any player this tall, he has some hit tool concerns, and his GB% was a bit high at 49%. This is basically the Oneil Cruz starter kit. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 73/24/81/.247/.326/.458/9

4) Victor Acosta SDP, SS, 17.10 – Acosta signed for $1.8 million in last years international class and he impressed right out of the gate in pro ball, slashing .285/.431/.484 with 5 homers, 26 steals, and a 18.8%/15.8% K%/BB% in 56 games in the DSL. He’s a switch hitter who hits well from both sides of the plate, but his lefty swing looks particularly dangerous to me. If his power fully develops, he has superstar upside, and even if it doesn’t his hit tool and speed are enough to make him a truly impact player. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 87/20/78/.274/.352/.445/24

5) MacKenzie Gore SDP, LHP, 23.1 – Gore’s alt site reports in 2020 were mediocre at best, and we saw those problems play out in 2021 with a pitching line of 3.93/1.47/61/28 in 50.1 IP (6.35 ERA with a 8/6 K/BB in 11.1 IP in the AFL). He showed control issues, delivery issues, and inconsistent stuff. At his best he still flashed 4 plus pitches from the left side, so he is far form a lost cause, but he is also far from a finished product. 2022 Projection: 2/4.42/1.37/42 in 45 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.88/1.32/168 in 155 IP

6) Luis Campusano SD, C, 23.6 – Campusano unlocked his power in 2021 with a career best 40.2% GB, leading to 15 homers in 81 games at Triple-A. He had a 52.2% HardHit% on 23 batted balls in his MLB cup of coffee this year. He couldn’t keep up the elite 11.7% K% he put up at High-A in 2019 with a 20.2% K% in 2021 (37.9% whiff% in the majors), so I think his ultimate batting average is more of a question than his power at this point. 2022 Projection: 25/7/28/.248/.308/.424/0 Prime Projection: 69/22/76/.266/.327/.462/0

7) Samuel Zavala SDP, OF, 17.9 – Zavala signed for $1.2 million in last year’s international class and like Acosta he lived up to the signing in his pro debut, slashing .297/.400/.487 with 3 homers, 11 steals (in 18 attempts) and a 15.3%/13.6% K%/BB% in 55 games in the DSL. He has an easy, smooth lefty swing with an advanced plate approach and developing power. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 83/22/78/.274/.348/.462/7

8) Jackson Merrill SDP, SS, 18.11 – Selected 27th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Merrill surely looks the part at 6’3”, 195 pounds with a sweet looking lefty swing. He was solid in his pro debut with a 22.5%/8.3% K%/BB% and 5 steals in 31 games, but he hit 0 homers and put up a 92 wRC+. He doesn’t really have a standout offensive skill, but you don’t have to be a super scout to watch him and realize there is definitely potential in the bat. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 73/21/79/.262/.327/.438/7

9) Eddy Beltre SDP, OF, 18.0 – Beltre was a DSL standout, slashing .295/.423/.446 with 3 homers, 24 steals, and a 16.8%/13.9% K%/BB% in 32 games. He has double plus speed with a good feel to hit and developing power. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 78/18/71/.267/.332/.427/23

10) Joshua Mears SDP, OF, 21.1 – Mears is 6’3”, 230 pounds with massive raw power that he has no trouble getting to. He crushed 17 homers with a 51.2% FB% in 71 games at Single-A, but it comes with extreme strikeout issues (39.2%/12.4% K%/BB%). ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 58/20/66/.223/.313/.453/4

11) Daniel Montesino SDP, 1B/OF, 18.2 – Montesino got a million bucks in last year’s international class. He is a bat first prospect with some defensive concerns, so there is a lot of pressure on his bat, but so far, so good as he slashed .316/.444/.489 with 4 homers, 8 steals, and a 21.8%/17.7% K%/BB% in 56 games in the DSL. He has the potential to hit for both power and average at peak. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 69/24/78/.254/.331/.450/4

Strategy 

San Diego has the 6th best pitcher’s park in baseball, making all of their pitchers great targets. It makes me love Morejon even more. Their ballpark is particularly death of left handed hitters, majorly suppressing homers, so it does make me worry a bit about a power breakout for someone like Grisham (he hit 4 homers at home and 11 on the road in 2021) who doesn’t have huge raw power. It could also impact the upside of Cronenworth, and we’ve all basically given up on a Hosmer homer breakout.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
A Top 413 Sneak Peek of my 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings with more early releases coming all off-season
–Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Top 256 OF/Top 122 SS/Top 88 3B/Top 90 2B/Top 78 1B/Top 56 C)
Top 50 First Year Player Draft Rankings (full Top 100 coming out with the Top 1,000 Rankings)
-Dynasty Team Reports for every team (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Previous Teams on Patreon
Arizona DiamondbacksBaltimore Orioles-Boston Red Sox (free)Chicago Cubs (free)Chicago White SoxCincinnati RedsCleveland IndiansColorado RockiesDetroit TigersHouston AstrosKansas City RoyalsLos Angeles Dodgers (free)Miami MarlinsMilwaukee BrewersMinnesota TwinsNew York Mets (free)New York YankeesOakland AthleticsPhiladelphia PhilliesPittsburgh PiratesSeattle MarinersSan Francisco GiantsSt. Louis Cardinals (free)Tampa Bay Rays (free)Texas RangersToronto Blue JaysWashington Nationals

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)