Michael Busch – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on December 18, 2023January 3, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Los Angeles Dodgers 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I like to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team, and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Los Angeles Dodgers 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100+ COMING SOON)
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Arizona Diamondbacks–Baltimore Orioles (free)–Boston Red Sox (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Oakland Athletics–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

The Tampa Bay Rays must subscribe to my Patreon, because I named Ryan Pepiot a Top 10 Early Off-Season Dynasty Baseball Target back on September 26th, and the Rays went out and got him for Tyler Glasnow. The Rays are an organization that almost has to trade their studs when they are in the last year of team control, especially an injury prone pitcher, but targeting Pepiot tells you everything you need to know about him. Like me, they think he can be a legitimate impact starter. This trade likely raises his profile too high to still get great value on him, but I also like targeting him at his fair value.

Pitchers

Emmet Sheehan LAD, RHP, 24.5 – Sheehan didn’t have a standout MLB debut with a 4.92 ERA and a 25.8%/10.5% K%/BB% in 60.1 IP, but some of the underlying data is extremely encouraging. Most notably, his 3 secondary pitches were absolutely devastating. The slider put up a .179 xwOBA with a 43.8% whiff%, the changeup put up a .200 xwOBA with a 47.6% whiff%, and the very lightly used sweeper put up a .161 xwOBA with a 41.2% whiff%. His heavily used 95.4 MPH fastball was solid as well with a respectable 20.2% whiff%. His 3.50 xERA looks much better than the surface stats, and he also closed the year out in dominant fashion with a 1.98 ERA and 24/4 K/BB in 13.2 IP over 3 outings. His control is below average, but it’s never really been in the major danger zone, so I wouldn’t downgrade him too much because of that. And how could you not trust the Dodgers to unlock his full potential in the long run. He showed no joke ace upside in his rookie year, and considering he currently has a NFBC ADP of 249, that tells me he isn’t getting nearly the respect he deserves this off-season. 2024 Projection: 9/3.72/1.23/158 in 145 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.52/1.18/210 in 175 IP

Bobby Miller LAD, RHP, 25.0 – Miller’s humongous stuff unsurprisingly transferred to the big leagues with a very strong rookie year. He put up a 3.76 ERA with a 23.6%/6.3% K%/BB% in 124.1 IP. He threw a 5 pitch mix and all of the pitches were good. The 99.1 MPH 4-seamer and 98.7 MPH sinker were both plus, and all 3 of his off-speed pitches missed bats (curve-36% whiff%/change-39.9%/slider-29.2% whiff%). He established a very high floor for himself. The 23.6% K% was modest, but the 6.3% BB% is very encouraging, and seeing the whiff rates on his secondaries tells me there could easily be more swing and miss in the tank. As opposed to Sheehan, Miller’s getting a ton of respect this off-season with a NFBC ADP of 81, so you’re probably one year too late if you are looking to buy him. He has top of the rotation upside and everyone knows it now. 2024 Projection: 12/3.52/1.18/165 in 160 IP

Hitters

James Outman LAD, OF, 26.10 – Outman has a plus power/speed combo with extreme hit tool risk, but I’m concerned the power/speed combo isn’t quite big enough to stick your neck out for considering the risk. He hit 23 homers with a 87.9/91.8 MPH AVG/FB EV, and he stole 16 bags in 567 PA. Good, but not great, and the swing and miss is in the danger zone with a 31.9% K% and 36.6% whiff%. He also struggles vs. lefties with a .665 OPS, giving him platoon risk. He’s a well above average defensive centerfielder, and he still got on base vs. lefties (.357 OBP), so the skills are there to play nearly everyday even if the BA dips. It was also only his rookie year and he managed a .248 BA (.228 xBA), so I’m certainly not down on him, but it’s the type of profile I would want to fall into my lap, rather than one I’m truly going after. 2024 Projection: 81/25/72/.239/.338/.440/15

Miguel Vargas LAD, 2B, 24.4 – It feels like eons ago since Miguel Vargas was considered a near elite prospect, but that was just last off-season. What scared everyone off is that he pulled a Gavin Lux on us with extremely underwhelming homer/steal totals (7 homers and 3 steals in 304 MLB PA), and he also only hit .195 despite a strong 20.1%/12.5% K%/BB%. He was then sent back down to the minors on July 8th and never saw the MLB field again. Vargas had his chance and failed to lock in a full time MLB role, and now he’s going to have to fight for his playing time. Betts is locked in at 2B, Muncy is at 3B, Freeman is at 1B, and Ohtani is at DH. He’s a bench bat until an injury happens or Muncy leaves in free agency after the 2024 season. Despite the poor rookie season, he still showed the skills to breakout in the future with his aforementioned strong plate approach, 16.6 degree launch, decent 6% Barrel%, and above average 27.9 ft/sec sprint. He crushed Triple-A again too. He’s just going to have to wait his turn to get another full time shot. 2024 Projection: 39/10/36/.251/.329/.418/7 Prime Projection: 84/24/79/.267/.346/.451/13

Bullpen

Evan Phillips LAD, Closer, 29.7 – Josh Hader is the only one who could rain on Phillips’ parade. The Dodgers seem like a very possible landing spot for Hader, and he would almost certainly slot directly into the full time closer role. That makes Phillips a bit risky to go after too hard until Hader officially signs somewhere, but if Phillips does keep the job, he is in at least the 2nd tier of closers. He took over LA’s undisputed closer role by late June, and he earned it with a 2.05 ERA and 28.2%/5.6% K%/BB% in 61.1 IP. He has an elite sweeper (.195 xwOBA with a 42.1% whiff%), a double plus 96.4 MPH fastball (.279 xwOBA with a 30.8% whiff%), a 95.5 MPH sinker that keeps the ball on the ground (negative 1 degree launch), and a solid 93.1 MPH cutter. It’s his 2nd year in a row of dominance, and his control is now in the near elite range. Just keep Hader away from him. 2024 Projection: 4/2.89/0.98/72/30 saves in 63 IP

Los Angeles Dodgers Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Josue De Paula LAD, OF, 18.10 – De Paula’s stateside debut wasn’t perfect, and it wasn’t the true explosion we were all hoping for, but it was still impressive when taking everything into account. The Dodgers showed how much they loved him by skipping him straight over stateside rookie ball, and he didn’t only hold his own against much older competition, his plate approach and hit tool were actually extremely mature with a 17.9%/13.5% K%/BB%, .284 BA, and 118 wRC+ in 74 games at Single-A. At a broad, athletic, and projectable 6’3”, 185 pounds with a sweet lefty swing, establishing this level of plate skills is relatively rare and exciting. Usually with these toolsy prospects we have to worry about the hit tool tanking them, but not with Josue. He hit only 2 homers, which is extremely low, so I’m not just going to hand wave it away, but he didn’t hit the ball particularly weakly, and he obviously made zero attempts to sell out for power. The raw power will certainly continue to tick up, which will make for a dangerous combination with his plate skills once it does. He’s not a burner, but he’s a good base runner with 14 steals in 17 attempts. Josue is taking the Juan Soto path, and the off-season after Soto’s 18 year old season were when the biggest trade mistakes were made with Soto (not saying he will be as good as Soto because Soto was even better in a shortened 18 year old season at Single-A). Stay patient on the explosion. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 88/24/81/.278/.352/.475/12

2) Joendry Vargas LAD, SS, 18.5 – Vargas is basically Josue De Paula 2.0. It’s almost like the Dodgers are especially good at this developing baseball players thing. He’s a projectable and athletic 6’4”, 175 pounds, earning him one of the top international signing bonuses last off-season, and he had a great season in the DSL, slashing .328/.423/.529 with 7 homers, 19 steals, and a 14.9%/14.4% K%/BB% in 48 games. All of the ingredients are there for him to explode to elite prospect status in the next few years with at least plus power potential, plus athleticism, and plus plate skills. Get in on him now before the mainstream prospect lists start blowing him up next season. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 81/26/86/.268/.341/.481/13

3) Gavin Stone LAD, RHP, 25.6 – Stone had a truly horrific MLB debut with a 9.00 ERA and 14.5%/8.6% K% in 31 IP, but I’m trying not to panic. We only have to look at Brandon Pfaadt to be reminded to keep our heads when a top pitching prospect gets demolished in their debut. Pfaadt is just one of many examples (Jose Berrios immediately comes to mind as well). If you’re looking for silver linings, his stuff did a solid job of missing bats with his changeup putting up a 41.4% whiff%, his slider putting up a 40% whiff%, and his 4-seamer putting up a 23.5% whiff%. His stuff didn’t even get hit insanely hard either with a merely below average 8.7% barrel%. It certainly wasn’t a good year with his fastball velocity taking a step back to 94 MPH, and he wasn’t great at Triple-A either with a 4.74 ERA in 100.2 IP, but I think the prudent thing to do is to look at this year as a developmental bump in the road, rather than a true disaster. His value takes a hit, but you certainly shouldn’t be close to throwing in the towel on him. 2024 Projection: 5/4.25/1.32/96 in 100 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.88/1.26/173 in 165 IP

4) Dalton Rushing LAD, C/1B, 23.1 – If Robo Umps come to the majors in the future, it will take framing away as a catcher skill, but blocking balls in the dirt and throwing out runners on the bases will still be super important, so I wouldn’t assume catcher defense will just be thrown to the curb. On that note, Rushing isn’t a particularly good defensive catcher, so it puts a lot of pressure on his bat to max out. He was far too advanced for High-A with a 146 wRC+ on the back of a .404 OBP in 89 games, as an advanced 22 year old college bat should be, but the 15 homers, .228 BA, and 24.4% K% aren’t quite as impressive. His numbers likely would have been better if he didn’t suffer a concussion from a getting hit by a backswing in June, but not sure that is necessarily a point in his favor for fantasy. Catchers take a beating, which is why you should generally downgrade them. The bat is good enough to profile in a 1B/DH/backup catcher role, but it just makes playing time tougher to come by and the leash much shorter. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/25/81/.253/.339/.458/2

5) Michael Busch LAD, 2B/3B, 26.4 – Ohtani locking down the DH spot is not great for Busch. He’s a poor defensive player who hits righties much better than lefties, so that DH spot was going to be his saving grace. Not anymore. He had a terrible MLB debut with a 49 wRC+ in 81 PA, and while there is some Quad-A slugger risk, he was utterly dominant at Triple-A (150 wRC+, 27 homers, 18.8%/13.9% K%/BB% in 98 games), so I wouldn’t panic too much over the debut. A trade would be the best thing for him, but LA could use a big bench bat, so I don’t think they are in any rush to move him. He’s stuck in opportunity limbo right now, and it might take until his late 20’s to lock in a near full time role. 2024 Projection: 21/7/25/.238/.321/.431/1 Prime Projection: 67/20/75/.251/.339/.467/3

6) Andy Pages LAD, OF, 23.4 – Out of sight, out of mind rules the prospect world, but Pages has the skills and opportunity to fight that instinct. He tore his labrum on a swing in mid May and missed the rest of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery. He was in the midst of having another excellent season (all he’s done in his career is have excellent seasons) with a 144 wRC+ in 33 games at Double-A. He has plus power with extremely low groundball rates (23.8%), and he combines that with a plus plate approach (22.5%/17.6% K%/BB%). He has some hit tool risk, especially with the extreme launch, but his strikeout rates have generally stayed out of the danger zone over his career. The Dodgers also don’t have much close to the majors OF depth with Outman, Jason Heyward, Chris Taylor, and Manuel Margot currently penciled into their OF slots. Pages can definitively kick the door down in 2024 assuming he returns to full health. 2024 Projection: 18/6/22/.223/.307/.431/2 Prime Projection: 82/28/84/.241/.335/.466/9

7) Eduardo Quintero LAD, OF, 18.7 – Quintero was one of the top DSL breakouts, and is arguably THE top DSL breakout with a 180 wRC+ that led all qualified age appropriate 17 year olds. He slashed .359/.472/.618 with 5 homers, 22 steals, and a 16%/15.1% K%/BB% in 49 games. He doesn’t have De Paula or Vargas’ obvious projectable size, but he’s not small at 6’0”, 175 pounds, and he’s an electric athlete with plus speed and at least above average power potential. DSL stats have to be taken with some level of restraint, so when I truly stick my neck out for a DSL breakout, they optimally have that prototypical size and pedigree, but if you aren’t as concerned with that, Quintero has a real case to be valued equally to, or even higher than Vargas. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 83/20/77/.265/.336/.448/22

8) Kyle Hurt LAD, RHP, 25.10 – All signs point towards LA deploying Hurt as a multi inning bullpen weapon in the near future. He reached 5 IP in only 4 of 26 upper minors outings, and he was already 25 years old for most of the 2023 season. His 92 IP this year was a career high. The profile also plays in shorter outings with below average control (11.3% BB%) of two plus to double plus pitches in his 95.5 MPH 4-seamer and 87.1 MPH changeup. It led to an insane 39.2% K%. He throws a decent slider and curve, so it’s not impossible for him to end up a starter, but neither misses a ton of bats. In shallower leagues, his likely middle innings role could make it hard to roster him, but in medium to deeper leagues, he’s good enough to make a real impact out of the bullpen, and he can certainly end up in the rotation if injuries open up a spot for him. 2024 Projection: 5/3.78/1.30/99 in 85 IP Prime Projection: 8/3.55/1.26/150 in 130 IP

9) Diego Cartaya LAD, C, 22.7 – Cartaya’s hit tool issues came to the forefront at Double-A with a .189 BA and 29%/9.2% K%/BB% in 93 games. A lot of that was back luck with a .216 BABIP, but it certainly wasn’t all bad luck. He was only 21 years old in the upper minors, so I would expect improvement in the future, but the hit tool is definitely a risk. The power isn’t a risk as the 6’3”, 220 slugger smacked 19 homers with a 31.6% GB%. Cartaya didn’t have the elite fantasy catcher explosion that we were hoping for in 2023, but his big power, low BA profile remains intact. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 64/26/72/.237/.321/.462/1

10) Thayron Liranzo LAD, C, 20.9 – Liranzo was one of the top breakout catcher prospects in 2023 on the back of at least double plus power. He slashed .272/.400/.562 with 24 homers and a 26.8%/16.7% K%/BB% in 94 games at Single-A. He’s a big boy at a thick 6’3” and he hits the ball tremendously hard from both sides of the plate (he’s better as a lefty). He’s not a great defensive catcher, the hit tool is still a risk, and LA is stacked at catcher up and down their organization, but Liranzo still seems underrated and underhyped to me considering the destruction he just laid in 2023. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 68/28/81/.242/.328/.464/3

11) Nick Frasso LAD, RHP, 25.6 – When everything is clicking, Frasso looks like a near ace at an athletic 6’5” with a deceptive righty delivery, fire stuff, and above average control. But everything isn’t always clicking for him as he ran extremely hot and cold this year, his stuff can be up and down, he’s been very injury prone in his career, and 93 IP was a career high by far (60 IP was previous career high in 2018). He throws a mid 90’s fastball with a plus slider and a changeup that flashes plus. It was good for a 3.77 ERA and 26.8%/7.8% K%/BB% in 93 IP at mostly Double-A. His ultimate role is still very much in the air, and in an organization that grows pitching prospects on trees and can sign/acquire high priced pitchers whenever they want, a bullpen role seems likely in the first couple years of his career. 2024 Projection: 3/4.39/1.34/58 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 9/3.91/1.28/150 in 140 IP

12) River Ryan LAD, RHP, 25.8 – Ryan’s numbers don’t exactly jump off the screen with a 3.90 ERA and 24.6%/10.3% K%/BB% in 104.1 IP at mostly Double-A, but his stuff most certainly does with a mid to upper 90’s fastball and plus slider leading the way. He also throws a curve and changeup that both have plus potential. He has a repeatable and athletic righty delivery at 6’2”, 195 pounds, and he doesn’t have a ton of experience starting, so there might be more upside in here than your typical 25 year old. A mid-rotation starter is probably his most reasonable upside projection, but he has a bit more upside than your typical “mid-rotation upside” starter. 2024 Projection: 2/4.48/1.35/54 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.95/1.28/150 in 150 IP

13) Hyun-Seok Jang LAD, RHP, 20.0 – When the Dodgers aggressively go after somebody (they made a trade for international moola right before signing Jang), you take notice, and you also jump aboard knowing how good they are at development. The 6’4”, 200 pound Jang was expected to be the #1 overall pick in the Korea League Draft before signing with LA, and after watching every video I could find of him, it’s very easy to see why. His stuff is genuinely explosive with a plus to double plus 4 pitch mix. He throws a mid 90’s fastball that rockets out of his hand, a knee buckling curve that looks like it could be double plus, a plus slider, and a potentially plus change. He is also way mature beyond his years on the mound with an athletic delivery and good control. I think he has legit ace upside and isn’t going to be ranked even close to where he deserves to be. Go after Jang hard in first year player drafts, and I’m tempted to go even higher on him, but you likely won’t have to reach too far to grab him in your drafts based on his current hype. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 13/3.56/1.18/185 in 170 IP

14) Kendall George LAD, OF, 19.5 – Selected 36th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, George is a pure speed play. He has 80 grade speed with legitimately elite run times. He also makes a ton of contact and is a plus defensive centerfielder. That profile will play on the major league level, and it certainly played in the lower minors, slashing .370/.458/.420 with 0 homers, 17 steals, and a 20/17 K/BB in 28 games split between rookie and Single-A. He has below average power with extremely high groundball rates, and while it does project to tick up from here, it’s not expected to be a major part of his game. He’s the high school version of Enrique Bradfield. . ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 84/10/52/.284/.348/.390/41

15) Trey Sweeney LAD, SS, 23.11 – The ingredients seem to be in here for a legit breakout, which is obviously part of the reason LA traded for him. Sweeney has a plus plate approach (19.1%/13.8% K%/BB%), good raw power at 6’2”, 212 pounds, low groundball rates (32.9% GB%), and while he’s not a burner, he clearly has some base stealing skills (20 steals). He’s also a decent defensive SS. It was good for a 118 wRC+ in 100 games at Double-A. He hasn’t been able to fully tap into his raw power yet with only 13 homers and a very low hard hit rate. The lack of squaring up the baseball has also led to a mediocre BA (.252 BA). He also struggled mightily vs lefties with a .560 OPS. The Dodgers organizational SS depth is surprisingly weak right now, so Sweeney immediately becomes their 2nd best long term SS option behind Gavin Lux. He might never be anything but a below average MLB hitter, but the move to LA gives him both a developmental and opportunity bump. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 68/18/62/.248/.324/.429/11

16) Jake Gelof LAD, 3B, 22.1 – Selected 60th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Gelof has the baseball bloodlines with his older brother, Zack, breaking out in the majors this year. Jake is a thick 6’1”, 200 pounds with a powerful righty swing that is made to hit dingers. He popped 21 homers in 2022 and then followed that up with a 23 homer season in 2023. That continued in pro ball with him cracking 6 homers in 30 games at mostly Single-A. It might not be truly elite power, but it’s easy plus power. He has below average speed, and there is hit tool risk too which already reared it’s ugly head with a .225 BA and 29.9 K% at Single-A, but we’ve seen the Gelof’s thrive with high K rates (hello, Zack) You are buying the power here, and after getting drafted by the Dodgers, you are also buying the great developmental organization. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 74/27/83/.243/.326/.468/6

Just Missed

16) Payton Martin LAD, RHP, 19.10

17) Justin Wrobleski LAD, LHP, 23.8

18) Jose Ramos LAD, OF, 23.3

19) Jeral Perez LAD, 2B/3B/SS, 19.5 – Perez’ destruction of rookie ball (11 homers with a 120 wRC+ in 53 games) earned him a promotion to Single-A where he more than held his own with a 118 wRC+ and 22.2%/18.5% K%/BB% in 7 games. He doesn’t necessarily jump off the screen with a thick and stocky build, and he’s not a huge tools guy, but he’s done nothing but produce at every level, including the DSL in 2022 (130 wRC+). He has a mature plate approach, he lifts the ball, and he’s in a great organization, so he should be able to get the most of his talent. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 66/19/74/.245/.323/.430/8

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: TOP 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100+ COMING SOON)
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on November 28, 2022December 9, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Los Angeles Dodgers 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Los Angeles Dodgers 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 43 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100 COMING LATER IN THE OFF-SEASON)
-A TOP 150 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: TOP 68 C//TOP 95 1B
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—New York Yankees (free)—Oakland Athletics—San Diego Padres—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—Texas Rangers—Washington Nationals

Starting Pitchers

Dustin May LAD, RHP, 25.7 – May returned from Tommy John surgery in late August, and while he wasn’t able to seamlessly pick up from his 2021 breakout, he showed the ingredients to get back there in 2023. He continued to throw the 97.2 MPH sinker much less in favor of his 98.1 MPH 4 seamer and secondaries (curve, cutter, change), which drove his 2021 breakout. The improved whiff% remained with a strong 29.7% whiff%, and he kept the ball on the ground as always with a 4.7 degree launch. Control is often the last thing to come back after returning from Tommy John, and that proved true for May as he had a career worst by a mile 11% BB%, which led to the poor 4.50 ERA in 30 IP. He’s had plus to elite control his entire career though, so I would be shocked if that didn’t bounce back in 2023. You have one last off-season to buy into May, because he’s headed for a monster 2023. He ranked 62nd overall on A Top 104 Sneak Peek of the 2023 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings over on Patreon. 2023 Projection: 12/3.32/1.08/160 in 150 IP

Tony Gonsolin LAD, RHP, 28.11 – Gonsolin was one of my biggest, if not my biggest hit of 2022. I hyped him to death all off-season with him going for a sweetheart price, and he exploded with near ace numbers, putting up a pitching line of 2.14/0.86/119/35 in 130.1 IP. A forearm injury knocked him out for all of September, but he was able to return before the end of the season. He throws a 93.1 MPH fastball with 3 plus secondaries in his splitter, slider, and curve. It led to an above average 23.9%/7.0% K%/BB%. His 3.12 xERA is likely more representative of his true talent level, but he now has a career 2.51 ERA over 4 seasons (272.2 IP). He’ll regress in 2023, but there’s no reason he won’t continue to be a damn good pitcher in one of the best organizations in the game. 2023 Projection: 13/3.42/1.12/148 in 155 IP

Hitters

Gavin Lux LAD, 2B, 25.4 – Lux seems to be afflicted with the curse of Starlin Castro. A once elite prospect who doesn’t bust, but becomes just another guy. He put up a measly 6 homers with 7 steals in 471 PA. His .276 BA was one of the few things he did well, but you can’t even truly count on that as his xBA was .247. The frustrating part it is that the skills that made him an elite prospect are still there. He has an above average plate approach (20.2%/10% K%/BB%) with plus speed (28.9 ft/sec sprint) and some pop (93.3 MPH FB/LD EV). He’s been an average MLB hitter in his age 21-24 year old seasons with a .316 xwOBA (MLB average is .315). The problem is that it hasn’t translated to fantasy success, and unless he starts running a whole lot more out of nowhere (which is possible), going out of your way to acquire Lux would likely be factoring in too much of his former prospect hype. We have to value him as he is, not as we hoped he would be, which is a better real life hitter than fantasy who does still have some upside. 2023 Projection: 76/14/63/.268/.337/.413/14

Max Muncy LAD, 3B/2B, 32.7 – It’s pretty clear Muncy deserves a pass for his rough season. He came into the year with a torn UCL that was not fully healed, and it led to a .613 OPS in his first 83 games. It was obvious when he started to fell better though. By August and September he was back to his old tricks, slashing .247/.358/.500 with 12 homers and a 56/31 K/BB in his final 53 games. I have to imagine another full off-season away from the injury will only help further. He’s an easy buy for a win now team. Use the down year and advanced age to nab one of the premier power bats in the game for what is sure to be a very reasonable price. That goes doubly in OBP leagues. 2023 Projection: 89/32/88/.243/.361/.502/2

Cody Bellinger FRA, OF, 27.9 – Bellinger technically did bounce back, well, maybe not bounce back, but he bounced, from a .542 OPS in 2021 to a .654 OPS in 2022, which is obviously not what we were hoping for. He continued to hit the ball in the air a ton (20.3 degree launch) with a weak 92.3 MPH EV FB/LD EV, and it led to a .210 BA (.213 xBA). He put up 95+ MPH FB/LD EV’s in 2017-2019. His Max EV’s tell the same tale, with it going from 112.8 MPH in 2017 to 107.3 MPH in 2022. His loss of power is almost biblical, Samson style. There one day, gone the next. Even his formerly great plate approach has been shattered to pieces with a 27.3%/6.9% K%/BB%. The shoulder injury seems to be a pretty clear demarcation of when it really fell apart. Maybe the league was starting to figure him out a bit too. Either way, everything is trending in the wrong direction, and the Dodgers non tendering him this off-season really drives the point home on how far he’s fallen. 2023 Projection: 76/23/74/.227/.308/.421/15

Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 30.6 – It’s clear that Betts is entering the back nine of his career, but a superstar talent like this has some tricks in their bag to slow that decline. He cranked a career high 35 homers in 142 games, and he did it by jumping on the first pitch 30.4% of the time, which is a career high by far (19.1% in 2021). The signs of decline could be seen with his sprint speed not bouncing back from an injury filled 2021, and he now has very slightly below average speed (49th percentile). His 14 steal attempts were a career low (other than the shortened 2020). His BA didn’t bounce back either, sitting at .269, and his xBA is saying it isn’t a fluke (.254 xBA). The adjustments Betts’ is making gives hope he can maintain elite, or near elite levels for a few more years, but it’s hard to completely ignore the red flags that have popped up here and there. 2023 Projection: 110/30/78/.277/.351/.527/14

Top 10 Los Angeles Dodgers Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Miguel Vargas LAD, 3B, 23.4 – Vargas made his MLB debut in 2022 and while he only put up a .455 OPS in 50 PA, there is nothing I love more than seeing rookies hit the ball hard. He had a well above average 89.7/94.1 MPH AVG/FB EV. He’s also much faster than advertised with a 29.3 ft/sec sprint speed which in the top 6% of the league. He had no trouble lifting the ball with a 25.7 degree launch angle and has no swing and miss issues with an average 24.3% whiff%. His elite plate approach at Triple-A (14.6%/13.7% K%/BB%) shows better days are likely ahead there too. Speaking of Triple-A, he slashed .304/.304/.511 with 17 homers and 16 steals in 113 games. He’s currently the favorite to be LA’s starting 3B in 2023, and the numbers indicate this guy has star potential. 2023 Projection: 72/21/75/.258/.327/.445/11 Prime Projection: 93/27/87/.272/.345/.483/15

2) Bobby Miller LAD, RHP, 24.0 – Miller is 6’5”, 220 pounds with ace level stuff. He throws a fastball that sits in the upper 90’s, a filthy upper 80’s changeup that gets about 10 MPH separation from the fastball, and a plus slider (he mixes in a good curve too). His 4.25 ERA in 112.1 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A was surprisingly underwhelming considering the stuff. Part of it is because his fastball is relatively hittable, and while he doesn’t have major control problems, he’s no Greg Maddux. The delivery isn’t super athletic either. The other part of it is likely bad luck as his 30.5%/8.1% K%/BB% and 3.47 xFIP at Double-A looks much better than the 4.45 ERA he put up at the level. He has ace upside, and with the Dodgers’ pitching development prowess, mid-rotation might be his floor. Don’t be surprised if he wins that 5th rotation spot straight out of camp, and while the Dodgers could easily sign a vet, they have enough holes to fill on offense I think they might leave the spot open for a young gun. 2023 Projection: 8/3.85/1.26/122 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.48/1.18/202 in 180 IP

3) Gavin Stone LAD, RHP, 24.6 – Stone put up a miniscule 1.48 ERA in 121.2 IP spread across 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA), and he thoroughly dominated each level equally with his 1.16 ERA in 23.1 IP at Triple-A being his best mark. It’s all about the elite changeup, which is extremely hard for batters to pick up and dives at the last second. He combines that with mid 90’s heat while mixing in a slider, cutter, and sinker. He’ll be right in the mix for that 5th starter job. 2023 Projection: 6/3.93/1.28/91 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.55/1.19/189 in 170 IP

4) Diego Cartaya LAD, C, 21.7 – Cartaya is neck and neck with Francisco Alvarez for the most power from a prospect catcher, and at 6’3”, 219 pounds, he might surpass him at peak. He jacked 22 homers in 95 games split between Single-A and High-A. Just look at this whip quick swing from the big man. He looks the part of a major leaguer already. He’s an OBP machine with a 14.1% BB%, but the batting average is likely to remain low with some swing and miss issues (26.7% K%). ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 69/32/84/.245/.338/.508/1

5) Michael Busch LAD, 2B/OF, 25.5 – Busch is as easy as it comes to evaluate. He’s a lefty masher with high strikeout and walk rates. He crushed 32 homers with a 167/74 K/BB in 142 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s a poor defensive player, but LA knew that when they took him 31st overall in the 2019 Draft. If he hits, they’ll find a spot for him, and I think he’s gonna hit. 2023 Projection: 34/11/36/.237/.318/.441/2 Prime Projection: 87/28/87/.251/.343/.488/3

6) Andy Pages LAD, OF, 22.4 – Pages’ 102 wRC+ at Double-A doesn’t jump off the page, but he was only 21 year old at the advanced level, and his profile remains the same as a low BA, high OBP slugger. He cracked 26 homers with a 24.9%/10.9% K%/BB% in 132 games. The reason I have Busch ranked over him is that Busch has a launch angle conducive to power and BA, but Pages has an extreme 50.4% flyball percentage which led to a .236 BA. There is very real batting average risk especially if the balls remain dead. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 83/28/87/.241/.330/.479/6

7) Dalton Rushing LAD, C/1B, 22.1 – Selected 40th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Rushing gets the biggest post draft bump after the destruction he left in his wake in pro ball. He slashed .404/.522/.740 with 8 homers and a 16.4%/16.4% K%/BB% in 28 games at Single-A. It’s not like this came out of nowhere either as he jacked 23 homers with a 1.156 OPS in 64 games in the ACC. Tack on the fact he got drafted by one of the best organizations in baseball who have recently developed 2 prospects with a very similar profile (Andy Pages and Michael Busch), and it makes Rushing a no brainer FYPD target. He’s not a lock to stick behind the plate, but the bat will play anywhere, and LA values versatility. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 78/26/81/.253/.337/.461/2

8) Josue De Paula LAD, OF, 17.10 – De Paula might be my favorite DSL breakout. He’s in a great organization, has athletic bloodlines (Stephon Marbury is his cousin), has great size (6’3”, 185), and great production (162 wRC+ with a 13.9%/14.3% K%/BB% in 53 DSL games). He made his first appearance on my in-season Top 300+ Monthly Prospects Rankings in July at 257th overall, and rose all the way to 139th overall on my Top 360 End of Season Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings over on Patreon. DSL prospects are as high risk as they come, but he has a legitimate chance to become one of the next big things. He’s started to get more hype this off-season, but he should still come at a great price in 99% of leagues. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 77/25/84/.271/.336/.473/12

9) Ryan Pepiot LAD, RHP, 25.7 – If Pepiot cracks the Dodgers rotation, this will look too low, because anybody in the Dodgers rotation is good enough for my fantasy rotation, but this is my bet that Miller and Stone will pass him on the depth chart. Not to mention Nastrini, Sheehan, and Frasso who all might be better than Pepiot too. He’s had control problems throughout his career and it hit a crescendo in his MLB debut with a 16.9% BB% in 36.1 IP. All 3 of his pitches get whiffs (fastball, change, slider), but none put up over a 30% whiff%. The fall off the table changeup is the money maker with a .227 xwOBA, which he combines with a 93.9 MPH that he threw 56.2% of the time and an average slider. LA’s depth, his control issues, and his limited repertoire has me leaning towards him being used out of the bullpen. 2023 Projection: 5/3.92/1.32/81 in 75 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.87/1.29/168 in 160 IP (if he sticks with Dodgers, in another org, I would go 4+ ERA)

10) James Outman LAD, OF, 25.10 – I’m a little scared by Outman’s big strikeout rates, but he has undeniable talent and there is a non zero chance he works his way into a large share of playing time in 2023. The close to the majors upside is worth the shot at this point in the rankings. He’s 6’3”, 205 pounds with a powerful lefty swing that cracked 31 homers in 125 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s also a good athlete, nabbing 13 bags. The aforementioned K rate is the issue as it sat at 29% at Double-A and 25% at Triple-A, before spiking to 43.8% in his 16 PA MLB debut. If he didn’t smoke the ball with a 99.6 MPH EV (1.409 OPS) in 6 batted ball events, I might not have been as high on him, and while it’s a small sample, you can’t really fake your way into hitting the ball that hard. I fear he’ll top out as a bench bat, but I’ll grab him if the price is right. 2023 Projection: 42/14/46/.228/.309/.431/5 Prime Projection: 65/19/68/.239/.320/.447/7

Just Missed

11) Nick Nastrini LAD, RHP, 23.1

12) Emmet Sheehan LAD, RHP, 23.4

13) Nick Frasso LAD, RHP, 24.5

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Odds are Bryce Harper is on a win now team in Dynasty, and with news he’s likely to be out for a few months into 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, I would go sniffing around to see if you can land him for any kind of a discount. Tommy John surgery is not nearly as big of a deal for hitters as it pitchers, and it’s very likely he returns to prime form. It also feels like the guy is 35 years old already because he’s been in the league since he was 19, but he’s still only 30 and should have several more years of elite production left. He’s in that true elite of the elite class of player that has a real chance of killing it deep into his 30’s. Harper would have been essentially untouchable before this injury, but now the window is open just a crack, and I would go after him regardless of where my team is in the contention cycle.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on November 29, 2021December 26, 2021 by Michael Halpern

Los Angeles Dodgers 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys and talk some team specific strategy for every team to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Los Angeles Dodgers 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
–A Top 100 Sneak Peek of my 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings with more early releases coming all off-season
-Dynasty Team Reports for every team (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)
–Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Top 56 Catchers dropped last week)
-End of Season 2021 Top 466 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
-End of Season 2021 Top 322 Dynasty Prospects Rankings

Hitters

Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 29.5 – I originally ranked Betts 14th overall on my Top 100 Sneak Peek of the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings, but when I was on the clock at 18th overall in the Rotowire 20 team OBP Dynasty Mock Draft, I found myself concerned that his hip injury could be the catalyst for him to stop running as much in the 2nd act of his career. A bone spur in his right hip led to a down season in 122 games where his sprint speed tanked to 27.1 ft/s and he stole only 3 bases in 5 attempts in his final 58 games. I’m more confident in his bat being just fine, because even in a down year he was still damn good with 23 homers and a 131 wRC+ in 122 games. None of his underlying hitting numbers really dropped off from career norms at all. The fear that he will stop running as much even if he does regain his speed, like we see with Trout and Altuve, has me thinking he will drop a bit on my next Sneak Peek update. 2022 Projection: 111/30/80/.288/.369/.519/13

Cody Bellinger LAD, OF/1B, 26.9 – I’m blaming the off-season shoulder surgery. It’s gotta be. I know pitchers started exploiting him up in the zone more too, but there is no other reasonable explanation for how insanely he fell off. There is no guarantee his shoulder ever truly goes back to what it was, and he was inconsistent even before the injury, so I’m not buying back in at elite level prices, but I’m certainly willing to take him on at a buy low price. 2022 Projection: 86/28/89/.251/.338/.494/10

Gavin Lux LAD, 2B, 24.4 – Lux significantly improved his plate approach in 2021 with a career best 21.8% K% and 10.8% BB%, and he notched a career high 89.8 MPH EV. But it’s homers and steals that rule in dynasty, and he’s still lacking there. He hits the ball on the ground too much (47.2% GB%), and while he put up a career best 92.6 MPH FB/LD EV, it’s still not great. He’s fast with a 29.1 ft/s sprint speed, but he’s only attempted 8 steals in his 144 game career. He did enough in 2021 to still be enticing in dynasty leagues, but not quite enough to get really excited. 2022 Projection: 76/18/68/.265/.340/.428/9

Starting Pitchers

Tony Gonsolin LAD, RHP, 27.11 – Right shoulder inflammation limited Gonsolin to 55.2 IP. He has two nasty secondaries in his slider and splitter, which put up a 47.8% and 41.4% whiff%, respectively. I would love him more if he was able to maintain the 95.1 MPH fastball he had in 2020, but it dropped down to 93.8 MPH this year. The pitch plays much better at the higher velocity. He also lost his control with a career worst 14.2% BB%. All together he is an above average strikeout pitcher with a career pitching line of 2.85/1.09/148/56 in 142.1 IP. It looks like he has a rotation spot. I’m buying Gonsolin, and the price is very affordable right now. 2022 Projection: 9/3.86/1.27/151 in 140 IP

Julio Urias LAD, LHP, 25.8 – I’ve been beating the don’t forget about Urias drum for a few years now and have consistently been the high man on him. It keeps paying off. Urias went next level breakout in 2021 with a pitching line of 2.96/1.02/195/38 in 185.2 IP. He has plus control (5.1% BB%-Top 6% of the league) of a 3 pitch mix that consistently induces weak contact (86 MPH EV against-Top 6% of the league). 2022 Projection: 14/3.42/1.09/193 in 180 IP

Bullpen

Blake Treinen LAD, Closer (for now), 33.9 – Treinen is the epitome of the volatile reliever with ERA’s all over the map in his 8 year career. 2021 was a great one, and he made real changes which gives hope this one is actually sustainable. He heavily reduced the use of his sinker and went to his slider and cutter more than ever. It led to a strikeout resurgence with a 29.7% K%. His 83.3 MPH EV against lead the league (150 BBE cutoff), with Loaisiga coming in 2nd and Jansen placing 3rd. Speaking of Jansen, Treinen is currently in the closer role, but they could easily bring Jansen back, or acquire a different closer altogether, so going after Treinen in Saves leagues is a risk right now. 2022 Projection: 5/3.30/1.18/71/25 in 65 IP

Los Angeles Dodgers Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects

1) Miguel Vargas LAD, 3B, 22.4 – Vargas is 6’3”, 205 pounds with potentially plus power that he naturally grew into more of this season. He doesn’t have to sell out to get to it, using the entire field and putting up excellent contact numbers. He slashed .319/.380/.526 with 23 homers, 11 steals, and a 16.4%/8.3% K%/BB% in 120 games at mostly Double-A. He’s not a burner but he’s been very successful on the bases in his minor league career (31 for 37 in 297 games), so at the least he won’t be a zero in that category. Vargas has started to get more love this off-season, but he’s still considerably underrated. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 86/26/88/.278/.344/.492/7

2) Bobby Miller LAD, RHP, 23.0 – Miller is 6’5”, 220 pounds with good control over a premium, MLB ready 5 pitch mix. His 4 seamer consistently reaches the upper 90’s and his 2 seamer has that nasty tailing action. The slider is plus, the changeup is potentially plus, and his curve can be an effective pitch too. It led to a pitching line of 2.40/0.94/70/13 in 56.1 IP at mostly High-A. He missed 6 weeks with an undisclosed injury and he rarely went more than 4 IP. He also got mashed in the AFL (9.90 ERA), but he mentioned he was specifically working on his curveball, so I wouldn’t be too concerned. Miller still has to prove it over longer outings and for more than 56.1 innings, but he has legitimate ace upside. 2022 Projection: 1/4.21/1.33/22 in 20 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.66/1.23/195 in 170 IP

3) Andy Pages LAD, OF, 21.4 – Pages had the 8th highest flyball percentage in all of the minor leagues among qualified hitters with a 55.3% FB%. It led to 31 homers in 120 games at High-A. He walks a ton with a 14.3% BB% and he has reasonable contact rates too with a 24.5% K%. LA’s High-A ballpark is a pitcher’s park that reduces homers, so he was actually much better on the road (1.016 OPS) than he was at home (.846 OPS). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 86/32/89/.255/.345/.503/4

4) Michael Busch LAD, 2B, 24.4 – Busch was unable to carry over his plus contact rates from college (26.1% K% in 107 games at Double-A), but he was able to carry over the power (20 homers) and walks (14.1% BB%). He’s your classic power, patience, and K’s slugger who would be helped if the NL adds a DH, because he’s not a great defensive player. 2022 Projection: Prime Projection: 84/25/84/.260/.347/.481/2

5) Diego Cartaya LAD, C, 20.7 – Cartaya is a big man at 6’3”, 219 pounds, and he had no trouble getting to his at least plus raw power with 10 homers and a 39.2% GB% in just 31 games at Single-A (a passport issue and then a hamstring injury ended his season early). Here he is smoking a 97 MPH fastball for a dinger in June. His 27% K% was high, but he was still able to show a good feel to hit with a .298 BA, and he also had a high 13.1% BB%. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 69/26/77/.260/.336/.472/0

6) Landon Knack LAD, RHP, 24.8 – If you’re going to trust just one minor league stat, K/BB rate is a great one to trust, and Knack is elite in that category with an 82/8 K/BB in 62.1 IP split between High-A and Double-A. He throws a mid 90’s fastball up in the zone with 3 secondaries that flash plus (slider, curve, change). He doesn’t go to the change that often and his slider is more consistent than his curve. I’m not necessarily seeing top of the rotation upside, but a low WHIP, high K mid-rotation starter plays up in fantasy. 2022 Projection: 1/4.40/1.30/15 in 15 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.90/1.21/175 in 165 IP

7) Eddys Leonard LAD, SS, 21.4 – Leonard isn’t physically imposing at 6’0”, 160 pounds (probably heavier than that now), but the ball definitely jumps off his bat. He whacked 22 homers in 107 games split between Single-A and High-A. His plate approach was solid with a 23.6%/10.4% K%/BB%, and he has some speed too with 9 steals. He isn’t likely to win you any one category, but he can be a damn good overall hitter. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/21/76/.265/.339/.446/7

8) Wilman Diaz LAD, SS, 18.5 – Diaz struggled in his first taste of pro ball with an 89 wRC+ and 27.7% K% in 24 games in the DSL. He was getting better as the season went along, and 24 games is a very small sample, so I wouldn’t panic based on the slow start to his career. He still has all the tools that made him a high priced international signing, but he obviously has a long way to go. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 82/23/76/.267/.333/.450/12

9) Jorbit Vivas LAD, 2B/3B, 21.1 – Vivas’ power broke out in 2021 with 14 homers in 106 games, but 13 of those homers came at Single-A with Rancho Cucamonga, a known hitter’s paradise, as his home ballpark. He hit just one homer in 23 games at High-A. Regardless, his power definitely ticked up this year, and he combines that with elite contact rates (11.5% K%). He’s a lefty with extreme splits, so there is platoon risk. LA just added Vivas to their 40 man, protecting him from the Rule 5 draft, so they definitely like him a lot. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 76/16/68/.278/.342/.423/6

10) Ryan Pepiot LAD, RHP, 24.7 – It’s all about that filthy, double plus changeup for Pepiot. It is one of, if not the best changeup in the minors. He combines that with a mid 90’s fastball and a much improved slider. His control has been an issue going back to college, and it hasn’t improved much with an 11.2% BB% at Double-A and 10.4% BB% at Triple-A. He destroyed Double-A in general (2.87 ERA in 59.2 IP), but he got destroyed in Triple-A (7.13 ERA in 41.2 IP). His control needs to improve to reach his mid rotation upside. 2022 Projection: 2/4.55/1.38/28 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.17/1.33/160 in 155 IP

Just Missed

11) Jose Ramos LAD, OF, 21.3

Strategy

LA is one of the best developmental organizations in the league, but they can also go out and sign big time free agents to fill any hole they have on the MLB level, so their prospects don’t get a very long leash (see, Gavin Lux). Many times they break in as depth pieces earlier in their career and have to earn more playing time later on. The same goes for their pitchers, as they love to mess with their rotation to give guys extra rest. It can be a nightmare when you are expecting a two start week in weekly lineup leagues. Overall, I don’t shy away from going after their prospects, but lack of playing time/innings is definitely something I factor in.

Previous Teams on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks–Baltimore Orioles-Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets–New York Yankees–Oakland Athletics–Philadelphia Phillies–Pittsburgh Pirates–Seattle Mariners–San Francisco Giants–St. Louis Cardinals–Tampa Bay Rays–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on February 13, 2019February 18, 2019 by Michael Halpern

2020 Top 90 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (1st Edition)

2019 prospects are old news. If you’re anything like me, you’ve spent so much time watching, listening, and reading about these guys, you know them better than you know thyself. With the NCAA Baseball season kicking off this weekend, I figured now is as good a time as any to roll out the first edition of my 2020 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings. Disclaimer: these rankings may change drastically as we get closer and closer to the June draft. Here are the 2020 Top 90 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (1st Edition):’

Click the links below for my previous off-season content:
2019 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
2019 Top 472 Dynasty Baseball Prospect Rankings
11 Dynasty Baseball Rules to Live By

Player Name POSITION, TEAM, AGE (Years.Months on 2019 MLB Opening Day – Months are on a scale of 0-11 … I know it is not mathematically correct, but gimme a break, I was a History major)

Projections (Hitters): R/HR/RBI/AVG/OBP/SLG/Steals
(Pitchers): Wins/ERA/WHIP/K

1) Bobby Witt Jr. SS, High School, 18.10 – Won of the Home Run Derby at the High School All-Star game and won MVP at the Under Armour All-America Game. Witt has posted elite exit velocity for his age and has plus speed. This is the high upside prospect you are looking for in Dynasty leagues. Prime Projection: 89/28/96/.257/.339/.485/22 ETA: 2024 Where he would rank on my 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #35 – ranked around Gavin Lux, Kristian Robinson, Danny Jansen, and Josh James.

2) Jasson Dominguez OF, NYY, 16?? – Expected to sign for about $5 million with the Yankees. Dominguez is a chiseled 5’10”, 195 pounds with a plus power-speed combo and good feel to hit. There isn’t that much info out there on him, but the ball explodes off his bat from the three Youtube clips I watched, and the $5 million signing bonus speaks for itself. Prime Projection: 96/28/94/.281/.357/.511/19 ETA: 2025 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #36 – ranked around see above, plus Mike Soroka, Vidal Brujan, and Andres Gimenez

3) Corbin Carroll OF, HS, 18.7 – Undersized at 5’10”, 165 pounds but has a quick and powerful stroke that has produced excellent exit velocity readings. Advanced approach with plus hit and 70 grade speed are his bread and butter. Prime Projection: 96/23/92/.285/.358/.478/26 ETA: 2023 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking:#47 – ranked around Jeter Downs, Victor Victor Mesa, and Jarred Kelenic.

4) Andrew Vaughn 1B, California, 21.0 – Insane sophomore year in the Pac12 with a 18/44 K/BB, 23 homers, and a triple-slash of .402/.531/.819. Plus hit, plus bat speed, plus power and plus exit velocity. If you prefer a quick moving college bat, I would’t blame you if you took Vaughn 1st overall. Prime Projection: 82/30/94/.285/.361/.514/2 ETA: 2021 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #58 – ranked around Austin Riley, Nathaniel Lowe, and George Valera.

5) Adley Rutschman C, Oregon State, 21.2 – Switch hitting catcher with power from both sides, an advanced plate approach, and a sure bet to stick behind the plate. Plus catcher defense makes him more valuable in real life. Prime Projection: 78/25/87/.278/.366/.483/3 ETA: 2021 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #64 – ranked around Trevor Larnach, Seth Beer, and Michael Chavis.

6) CJ Abrams SS, HS, 18.6 – Prototypical top of the order hitter with elite contact ability and elite speed. At 6’2”, 180 pounds he has the frame to grow into more power, and has posted a top exit velocity of 93 MPH at a Perfect Game showcase, which isn’t bad.. Prime Projection: 96/18/71/.287/.349/.453/29 ETA: 2023 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #71 – ranked around Bubba Thompson, Nico Hoerner, and Mitch Keller.

7) Riley Greene OF, HS, 18.6 – Pure hitter with plus bat speed and plus exit velocity that should lead to more power as he matures. Greene has one of the smoothest lefty swings in the draft. Prime Projection: 91/25/92/.288/.373/.505/9 ETA: 2023 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #75 – ranked around Ke’Bryan Hayes, Estevan Florial, Yusniel Diaz, and Isaac Paredes.

8) Jerrion Ealy OF, HS, 18.7 – Elite two-sport athlete (he’s also a star running back) with double plus speed, vicious bat speed, and elite contact ability. These two sport stars always seem to be a little underrated (see Taylor Trammell and Bubba Thompson, two guys I was much higher on than any other list pre-draft). Ealy has the potential to be an absolute stud. This ranking doesn’t take any signability concerns into account. I would just be wildly guessing at the odds he chooses to go to college to play football. Same goes for my #10 ranked prospect, Maurice Hampton. Prime Projection: 91/21/86/.277/.345/.461/30 ETA: 2023 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #78 – ranked around Nolan Jones, Joey Bart, Travis Swaggerty, and Corey Ray.

9) Michael Busch 1B/OF, North Carolina, 21.5 – Plus hit, plus power combo with sneaky athleticism. Dominated the Cape Cod League, slashing .322/.450/.567 with 6 homers, 3 steals, and a 17/19 K/BB in 27 games. Prime Projection: 85/26/88/.274/.353/.479/8 ETA: 2021 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #90 – ranked around Alec Bohm, Tyler Nevin, and Jordyn Adams.

10) Maurice Hampton OF, HS, 17.8 – Elite two sport athlete (star cornerback) with plus speed and plus exit velocity, but inexperience shows up in his raw hit tool. Hampton is another underrated two sport star. Upside is elite. Prime Projection: 83/24/83/.258/.330/.468/23 ETA: 2024 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #91 – ranked around Jordan Adams, Julio Pablo Martinez, and Wander Javier.

11) Robert Puason SS, OAK, 16?? – Dominguez and Puason are the top tier of the 2019 J2 class. Puason is a long and lean 6’2” with elite athleticism and plus speed. Prime Projection: 93/23/87/.277/.351/.479/22 ETA: 2025 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #100 – ranked around Kevin Smith and Marco Luciano.

12) Carter Stewart RHP, Junior College, 19.5 – Selected 8th overall by Atlanta in the 2018 draft, but never signed due to concerns over a wrist injury. Stewart is a 6’6”, 200 pound man child with a nasty high spin rate curveball. He has an intimidating presence on the mound with a fastball that tops out at 97 MPH. Prime Projection: 15/3.54/1.23/198 in 180 IP ETA: 2022 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #101 – ranked around Luiz Gohara, Jon Duplantier, Luis Patino, and Ryan Mountcastle.

13) Graeme Stinson LHP, Duke, 21.8 – 6’5”, 245 pound lefty with a nasty fastball/slider combo that racks up strikeouts. Changeup is far behind and he has been a reliever for most of his college career, so bullpen risk is high. Prime Projection: 11/3.48/1.24/171 in 145 IP ETA: 2021 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #111 – ranked around see above, plus Brent Rooker, Willians Astudillo, and Ryan McKenna.

14) Daniel Espino RHP, HS, 18.3 – Fastball sits in the mid 90’s and can touch 100 MPH, to go along with a plus curveball and potentially plus slider. Espino might have the most electric stuff in the draft. Prime Projection: 14/3.55/1.25/193 in 178 IP ETA: 2023 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #113 – ranked around see above, plus Anderson Espinoza, Isan Diaz, and Heliot Ramos.

15) Brennan Malone RHP, HS, 18.7 – Power pitcher at 6’5”, 210 pounds with a fastball that hits 97 MPH and an arm action that looks like it could launch military grade weapons. Secondaries are still raw, but curveball flashes plus, and has good arm speed and fade on developing changeup. Prime Projection: 15/3.69/1.24/201 in 185 IP ETA: 2023 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #121 – ranked around Leody Tavares, Brandon Marsh, and Justin Dunn.

16) Josh Jung 3B, Texas Tech, 21.2 – Big, physical hitter at 6’2”, 215 pounds who needs to start pulling the ball more to fully tap into his raw power. 32/39 K/BB in 65 games shows good feel to hit. Prime Projection: 78/26/91/.271/.339/.470/4 ETA: 2021 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #127 – ranked around Adam Haseley, Grant Lavigne, and Oscar Mercado.

17) Will Holland SS, Auburn, 20.11 – Plus power/speed combo who performed very well in his sophomore year in the SEC, slashing .313/.406/.530 with 12 homers and 9 steals. Has a very pronounced wide and low batting stance, and a 49/28 K/BB in 66 games shows his plate approach needs improvement. Prime Projection: 84/20/79/.258/.334/.445/23 ETA: 2022 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #128 – ranked around Oscar Mercado, Sandy Alcantara, DJ Stewart, and Cole Tucker.

18) Michael Toglia 1B/OF, UCLA, 20.8 – Toglia is one of the youngest players in the college draft class. He has plus raw power with a patient approach at the plate that leads to high strikeout totals. At 6’4”, 205 pounds, the potential is there for him to turn into an absolute beast. Prime Projection: 82/27/91/.262/.354/.476/4 ETA: 2022 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #133 – ranked around Luis Alexander Basabe, Austin Beck, and Zack Collins.

19) Yolbert Sanchez SS, Cuba, 22.1 – Slick fielding shortstop with plus speed and everything else still pretty much a mystery. His numbers in Cuba were unimpressive, although he was mostly a teenager and he rarely struck out. Prime Projection: 78/15/75/.274/.331/.423/20 ETA: 2021 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #149 – ranked around Nick Neidert, Logan Gilbert, and Akil Baddoo.

20) Greg Jones SS, UNC-Wilmington, 21.1 – Tooled up athlete with double plus speed and developing power. 70/33 K/BB in 60 games shows he is still raw. Prime Projection: 80/15/73/.255/.337/.418/26 ETA: 2022 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #152 – ranked around Akil Baddoo, Anderson Tejada, and Austin Hays.

21) Kameron Misner OF, Missouri, 21.3 – Plus power-speed combo but approach is more line drive oriented. Was leading Division 1 in walks in 2018 before breaking his foot on a foul ball. Prime Projection: 86/23/79/.262/.350/.465/17 ETA: 2022 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #158 – ranked around Dane Dunning, Tirso Orneles, and Tristen Lutz.

22) Rece Hinds 3B, HS, 18.7 – Hinds is 6’4”, 220 pounds with possibly the most power potential in the entire draft class. Struggles to pick up spin and has some legitimate swing and miss. Prime Projection: 81/35/96/.247/.338/.516/5 ETA: 2024 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #165 – ranked around Parker Meadows, Jordan Groshans, and Triston Casas.

23) Tyler Dyson RHP, Florida, 21.3 – 6’3”, 225 pounds with a fastball that consistently hits the mid 90’s, a tight slider, and a developing changeup. Reminds me of Trevor Bauer a bit with the odd way the ball comes out of his hand. I’m very intrigued by Dyson. Prime Projection: 14/3.73/1.26/183 in 180 IP ETA: 2021 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #165 – ranked around Brady Singer, Ryan Weathers, and Freudis Nova.

24) Jackson Rutledge RHP, Junior College, 20.1 – 6’8”, 260 pounds with a fastball that can hit the upper 90’s and a potentially plus slider and curveball. Has a delivery that hides the ball very well. Rutledge has a chance to shoot up the rankings by draft time. Prime Projection: 14/3.81/1.28/191 in 185 IP ETA: 2022 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #166 – ranked around see above.

25) Logan Davidson SS, Clemson, 21.3 – Plus power-speed combo with a high strikeout rate. Raked in his two years at Clemson, but was horrific in the Cape Cod League, slashing .194/.292/.266 in 139 at-bats in 2018. Prime Projection: 79/23/84/.246/.332/.457/14 ETA: 2022 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #188 – ranked around Austin Dean, Blake Rutherford and Orelvis Martinez.

26) Nasim Nunez SS, HS, 18.7 – 5’9”, 160-pound speedster with plus athleticism and one of the best gloves in the draft. Limited power projection. Prime Projection: 89/11/59/.277/.343/.401/30 ETA: 2023 2019 Top 2019 472 Prospects Ranking: #208 – ranked around Noelvi Marte, Matt Thaiss, and Tony Santillan

27) Myles Austin SS, HS, 18.2 – Long and lean at 6’3”, 180 pounds. Austin has good athleticism and a plus power/speed combo, but is still raw at the dish. High risk, high reward prospect. Prime Projection: 79/23/81/.254/.322/.450/16 ETA: 2024 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #213 – ranked around Wenceel Perez, Calvin Mitchell, and Kyle Lewis.

28) Spencer Jones LHP/1B, HS, 17.10 – Two way player but ultimate future is likely as a pitcher. Intimidating mound presence at 6’7”, 205 pounds with a low 90’s fastball and good feel for a curveball. He has the upside to be the best pitcher in the class as he gains more experience. Offensively, he has a plus power/speed combo but is still raw. Prime Projection: 14/3.71/1.27/171 in 175 IP ETA: 2024 2019 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #215 – ranked around Dakota Hudson, Kolby Allard, and Kyle Muller.

29) Nick Lodolo LHP, TCU, 21.2 – Projectable 6’6”, 180 pounds with a downhill low 90’s fastball to go along with an inconsistent curveball and changeup. Stuff and upside are better than college numbers indicate at this point in his career. Prime Projection: 13/3.83/1.29/174 in 177 IP ETA: 2022 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #219 – ranked around Jay Groome, Evan White, and Lazaro Armenteros.

30) Matthew Lugo SS, HS, 17.11 – High upside prospect with the potential for above average tools across the board. Swing looks great in batting practice, but he is still a bit of a dart throw. Prime Projection: 80/20/76/.260/.335/.450/16 ETA: 2024 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #228 – ranked around Grayson Rodriguez, Luis Rengifo, and Ryan Vilade.

31) Bryson Stott SS, UNLV, 21.6 – A bunch of the college hitters ranked beyond this point are almost sure to shoot up this list based on who takes the next step in their junior year. I leaned young upside for this first edition, but as the safe college bats become even safer with another year of improvements, the good ones will rise. Stott has elite contact rates with a 18/32 K/BB and .365 BA in 59 games his sophomore season. He has above average speed, and while he presently has below average power, at 6’3”, 195 pounds, there is more power to be unlocked. Prime Projection: 88/18/71/.284/.348/.441/17 ETA: 2021 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #233 – ranked around Kyle Isbel, Jake McCarthy, and Tyler Freeman.

32) Braden Shewmake SS, Texas A&M, 21.8 – Solid offensive skills across the board with near elite contact rates (21/21 K/BB in 60 games his sophomore season). Good base runner with above average speed and at 6’4”, 180 pounds, there could be a tick more power in here. Prime Projection: 82/21/77/.275/.340/.460/15 ETA: 2022 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #237 – ranked around Tyler Freeman, Moises Gomez, and Daniel Johnson.

33) Shea Langeliers C, Baylor, 21.5 – Plus defensive catcher who is a much better prospect in real life than fantasy. Solid offensive skills across the board except for base running, but nothing is standout. Prime Projection: 66/22/74/.260/.338/.449/2 ETA: 2022 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #260 – ranked around Tyler Stephenson, Chavez Young, and Garrett Whitley.

34) Will Wilson SS, North Carolina St., 20.8 – Has done nothing but rake since entering the SEC, slashing .307/.376/.588 with 15 homers and a 41/27 K/BB in 59 games in 2018. Good feel to hit with at least above average power, but he is not a major threat on the bases. Prime Projection: 79/23/85/.267/.338/.464/6 ETA: 2022 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #261 – ranked around Aramis Ademan, Jose Siri, and Micker Adolfo.

35) Matt Wallner OF, Southern Miss., 21.4 – Prodigious raw power with the home run totals to prove it, smashing 19 his freshman year, 16 his sophomore year, and 4 in 23 Cape Cod games. Has some swing and miss and needs to refine his plate approach. Prime Projection: 73/27/87/.248/.325/.472/6 ETA: 2022 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #262 – ranked around see above.

36) Matthew Thompson RHP, HS, 18.8 – Plus athlete with a lightening quick arm and good feel for a curveball and slider. Prime Projection: 12/3.90/1.28/176 in 175 IP ETA: 2023 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #269 – ranked around Taylor Widener, Nicky Lopez, and TJ Friedl.

37) Blake Sabol C/OF, USC, 21.3 – Mediocre numbers at USC thus far, but broke out in the Cape Code League, slashing .340/.445/.573 with 7 homers, 14 steals, and a 21/21 K/BB in 37 games. The tools back up the power/speed numbers. Sabol could be a fast riser with a strong junior season, especially for fantasy. Prime Projection: 78/22/81/.255/.328/.448/12 ETA: 2022 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #273 – ranked around Luis Gonzalez, Jeissen Rosario, and Junior Santos.

38) Jack Leiter RHP, HS, 18.11 – Son of Al Leiter, and as expected, Jack is advanced beyond his years with a 4-pitch mix headlined by a high spin rate, plus curveball. Doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but he is as safe as a high school pitcher gets. Prime Projection: 12/3.88/1.26/161 in 168 IP ETA: 2023 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #274 – ranked around Junior Santos, David Peterson, and Patrick Weigel.

39) Jack Kochanowicz RHP, HS, 18.3 – Projectable 6’6”, 207 pounds, Kochanowicz throws strikes with a low 90’s fastball, curve that flashes plus, and developing changeup. Like Tyler Dyson, Kochanowicz is another pitcher where I just like the way the ball comes out of his hand. Prime Projection: 14/3.77/1.26/180 in 180 IP ETA: 2023 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #280 – ranked around Michael Grove, Mickey Moniak, and Seth Romero.

40) Nick Quintana 3B, Arizona, 21.6 – Slashed .313/.413/.592 with 14 homers and a 47/32 K/BB in 56 games in 2018. Power showed up in the Cape too, but strikeout issues reared their ugly head with a 44/16 K/BB in 35 games. Prime Projection: 77/24/86/.265/.338/.464/3 ETA: 2022 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #281 – ranked around Braxton Garrett, Lenny Torres, and Simeon Woods Richardson.

41) Austin Shenton 3B, Florida International, 21.2 – When I tweeted on Tuesday about this list dropping today, a Cape Cod league scout (my former podcast co-host Ralph Lifshitz) immediately texted me, “Austin Shenton > Logan Davidson. Don’t overlook him.” So of course I still ranked Shenton below Davidson. What can I say? I’m hard headed 😉 But I did move Shenton up higher than I had him. He destroyed the Cape, slashing .348/.450/.490, and while he doesn’t have huge power, his hit tool is definitely going to play. Prime Projection: 79/21/81/.278/.346/.456/5 ETA: 2022 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #285 – ranked around Trevor Rogers, Willi Castro, and Bryan Abreu.

42) Matthew Allan RHP, HS, 17.11 – Prototypical big bodied (6’3”, 210 pounds) teenage pitching prospect with a power fastball that can hit 97 MPH and good feel for a curveball. Command and changeup lag behind. Prime Projection: 12/3.78/1.31/168 in 173 IP ETA: 2024 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #298 – ranked around Josiah Gray, Thomas Szapucki, and Jojo Romero.

43) Bayron Lora OF, TEX, 16?? – Expected to sign for about $4 million with Texas. Lora is a physical beast at 6’4” with a quick bat and the potential for double plus power at peak. Prime Projection: 83/32/95/.263/.348/.518/4 ETA: 2026 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #305 – ranked around Blaze Alexander, Jeremy Eierman, and Kody Clemens.

44) Chris Newell HS, OF, 17.11 – Underwent Tommy John surgery in September 2017. Above average runner with a left handed swing geared for flyballs. At 6’3”, 190 pounds, Newell has a chance to grow into a 5 category stud. Prime Projection: 82/23/87/.269/.343/.472/14 ETA: 2024 2019 Top 472 Prospect Ranking: #307 – ranked around Tristan Pompey, Josh Stowers and Miguel Vargas.

45) Emmanuel Dean OF, HS, 18.9 – Dean is a ripped up 6’5”, 210 pounds with elite exit velocity readings and plus 60 yard dash times. If he was Cuban, baseball writers heads would be exploding. But he’s not, so he’s underrated. Prime Projection: 78/25/83/.245/.329/.468/16 ETA: 2024 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #310 – ranked around Myles Straw, Jose Garcia, and Jonathan Orneles.

46) Jason Hodges OF, HS, 17.9 – Hodges is a big and broad 6’3”, 210 pounds with at least plus raw power at maturity. Near elite exit velocity readings for his age, and is about an average runner as well. Prime Projection: 77/26/81/.249/.328/.477/9 ETA: 2024 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #313 – ranked around Osiris Johnson, Joe Perez, and Jameson Hannah.

47) Drew Mendoza 3B, Florida St., 21.6 – 6’4”, 200 pounds with plus raw power, patience, and strikeouts. Hasn’t performed well in the Cape and hasn’t tapped into all of his power, but has been strong in the ACC (.934 OPS in 2017 and .931 OPS in 2018). Prime Projection: 74/25/82/.247/.332/.470/4 ETA: 2022 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #318 – ranked around Joe Gray, Sandy Gaston, Diego Cartaya, and Jose De Leon.

48) JJ Bleday OF, Vandy, 21.4 – Power exploded in the wood bat Cape Cod League with 5 homers in 36 games. Has already displayed a good feel to hit throughout his college career, so if the power gains roll over, he could continue to rise as the draft approaches. Prime Projection: 75/23/82/.267/.339/.462/3 ETA: 2022 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #319 – ranked around see above.

49) Kyle Stowers OF, Stanford, 21.3 – Above average power with a swing designed to lift the baseball, but it also comes with a healthy number of strikeouts. Prime Projection: 73/23/81/.251/.327/.451/8 ETA: 2022 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #321 – ranked around Osiel Rodriguez, Tyrone Taylor, and Luis Toribio.

50) JJ Goss RHP, HS, 18.3 – Low 90’s fastball with a swing and miss slider and good feel for a changeup. He throws strikes and the fastball should tick up as he fills out. Prime Projection: 12/3.88/1.29/165 in 164 IP ETA: 2024 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #357 – ranked around Jacob Nix, Hunter Harvey, and James Kaprielian.

51) Glenallen Hill Jr. OF, HS, 18.6 – Glenallen Hill’s son. 5’9”, 169 pounds with plus speed and vicious bat speed. Hill profiles as a leadoff hitter with enough power for 10+ bombs. Prime Projection: 86/13/54/.268/.332/.409/25 ETA: 2023 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #361 – ranked around Ryan Rolison, Jason Martin, and Randy Arozarena.

52) Erick Pena OF, Royals, 16?? – 6’3” with a smooth and powerful left handed swing. Prime Projection: 83/27/91/.268/.347/.485/5 ETA: 2026 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #378 – ranked around Esteban Quiroz, Raynel Delgado, and Misael Urbina.

53) Yhoswar Garcia OF, PHI, 16?? – Prototypical leadoff hitter with double plus speed and good feel to hit. At a lean 6’0”, he should develop more power as he ages. Prime Projection: 92/13/59/.279/.340/.418/27 ETA: 2025 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #381 – ranked around Misael Urbina, Zack Short, and Max Schrock.

54) Zack Thompson LHP, Duke, 21.5 – 4-pitch mix headlined by a deceptive low 90’s fastball and breaking ball that flashes plus. Injury issues and control/command issues throughout his career. Prime Projection: 11/3.97/1.33/156 in 169 IP ETA: 2022 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #383 – ranked around Logan Webb and Mike King.

55) Tyler Callihan 3B, HS, 18.9 – Plus raw power with a quick left handed swing, advanced approach, and good feel to hit. Prime Projection: 76/25/86/.269/.348/.473/4 ETA: 2024 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #390 – ranked around Kevin Cron, DJ Peters, Dylan Cozens, and Roberto Ramos.

56) Brett Baty 3B, HS, 19.5 – Plus raw power with a quick, uppercut lefty swing. Advanced hitter with the ability to pick up spin and doesn’t sell out for power. Chance he has to move across the diamond to 1B. Prime Projection: 74/26/85/.263/.347/.471/2 ETA: 2023 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #391 – ranked around see above.

57) Alek Manoah RHP, West Virginia, 21.3 – After being used mostly out of the bullpen in his college career, Manoah broke out in the Cape Cod league as a starter, leading the league in strikeouts with 48 in 33.1 IP. He’s 6’6”, 260 pounds with mid 90’s heat, a slider that flashes plus, and a developing changeup. Prime Projection: 9/3.72/1.31/136 in 130 IP ETA: 2021 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #402 – ranked around Luis Ortiz, Dillon Tate, Dennis Santana, and Tim Cate

58) Erik Miller LHP, Stanford, 21.2 – At 6’5”, 230 pounds and the potential for 3 above average to plus pitches, Miller could shoot up draft boards with a great junior year, but he struggles with command and got lit up in the Cape Cod League (7.71 ERA in 23.1 IP). Prime Projection: 11/3.93/1.34/158 in 165 IP ETA: 2022 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #403 – ranked around see above.

59) George Kirby RHP, Elon, 21.2 – Potential for 4 average to above average pitches with mid 90’s heat and good control. Prime Projection: 11/3.98/1.31/151 in 160 IP ETA: 2022 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #404 – ranked around see above.

60) Ryan Zeferjahn RHP, Kansas, 21.1 – 6’4”, 215 pounds with a fastball that can reach the upper 90’s and a potentially plus slider. Control/command will have to take a step forward in 2019 to shoot up this list. Prime Projection: 10/4.02/1.33/153 in 155 IP ETA: 2022 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #405 – ranked around see above.

61) Dominic Fletcher OF, Arkansas, 21.8 – 5’10”, 185 pounds but packs a powerful punch with his strong and quick left-handed swing. He’s smacked 22 homers in his 128 game SEC career. Prime Projection: 73/23/82/.258/.333/.454/4 ETA: 2022 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #406 – ranked around Luis Campusano, Anthony Banda, and Buddy Reed.

62) Chase Strumpf 2B, UCLA, 21.1 – Breakout sophomore year, slashing .363/.475/.633 with 12 homers and a 53/45 K/BB in 58 games. Doesn’t have any loud tools, but is solid across the board. Prime Projection: 78/20/77/.260/.330/.442/7 ETA: 2022 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #410 – ranked around Jared Olivia, Miguel Hiraldo, and Ronny Brito.

63) Will Robertson OF, Creighton, 21.3 – Good feel for contact with plus raw power. Slashed .333/.412/.641 with 12 homers and a 31/17 K/BB in 50 games played at one of the toughest ballparks to hit homers in. Prime Projection: 73/24/80/.263/.335/.467/2 ETA: 2022 2019 Top 472 Prospects Rankings: #414 – ranked around Edwin Rios, Josh Ockimey, and Luken Baker.

64) Hunter Barco LHP, HS, 18.4 – Prototypical starter size at 6’4”, 208 pounds with an almost sidearm delivery. Barco flashes the potential for 3 plus pitches (fastball, slider, chanegup), but a lot of that is based on projection at his point. Prime Projection: 11/3.93/1.30/167 in 173 IP ETA: 2024 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #428 – ranked around Luis Medina, Gregory Santos, and Rogelio Armenteros.

65) Wil Dalton OF, Florida, 21.7 – Plus power-speed combo who destroyed junior college freshman year and then had a strong season in his SEC debut, slashing .262/.338/.542 with 19 homes, 8 steals, and a 74/24 K/BB. Struggles with breaking balls and is still raw at the plate. Prime Projection: 77/22/78/.246/.320/.442/14 ETA: 2022 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #441 – ranked around Adam Kloffenstein, Kyle Cody, and Jayce Easley.

66) Sammy Siani OF, HS, 18.4 – Brother of Mike Siani, a 4th round pick in 2018 and my 198th ranked prospect. Sammy isn’t as highly regarded as his brother, but he has plus speed and makes good contact with a smooth left handed swing. Prime Projection: 78/14/69/.269/.337/.410/20 ETA: 2024 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #443 – ranked around Jayce Easley, Joe McCarthy, and Nick Decker.

67) Cade Doughty 3B, HS, 18.0 – Good athlete who can play all over the field. Posted plus 60 yard dash times and plus exit velocity. Type of player who will chip in a little bit in every category. Prime Projection: 82/18/73/.268/.336/.432/15 ETA: 2024 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #445 – ranked around Nick Decker, Terrin Vavra, and Will Benson.

68) Gunnar Henderson SS, HS, 17.9 – Above average exit velocity and 60 yard dash times with a good feel to hit. One of the youngest players in the draft class. Prime Projection: 79/20/78/.267/.346/.445/9 ETA: 2024 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #449 – ranked around Jamie Westbrook, Heath Quinn, Dom Thompson-Williams.

69) Zach Watson OF, LSU, 21.9 – Good athlete with at least plus speed and developing power. Strong power-speed numbers in the SEC (7 homers and 14 steals in 57 games) but 45/16 K/BB shows approach still needs some work. Prime Projection: 77/18/76/.259/.316/.428/19 ETA: 2022 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #452 – ranked around Brock Deatherage, Osleivis Basabe, and Larry Ernesto.

70) Ismael Mena OF, SD, 16?? – Mena is a lean and projectable 6’2” with plus speed and a smooth lefty swing that generates effortless bat speed. He’s a future 20/20 threat. Prime Projection: 87/22/84/.265/.335/.465/19 ETA: 2026 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #454 – ranked around Larry Ernesto, Owen White and Jake Wong.

71) Alexander Ramirez OF, NYM, 16?? – A 6’3” plus power-speed combo. It goes without saying I don’t have much information on these J2 kids, but he looks like a potential stud on Youtube. Prime Projection: 83/25/89/.262/.337/.479/16 ETA: 2026 2029 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #455 – ranked around Mario Feliciano, Will Banfield, and Francisco Morales.

72) Luis Rodriguez OF, LAD, 16?? – Advanced at the plate with solid tools across the board. Prime Projection: 88/23/86/.278/.353/.475/10 ETA: 2026 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #468 – ranked around JJ Matijevic, Juan Guerrero, and Tyler Phillips.

73) Ryne Nelson RHP, Oregon, 21.2 – Fastball that can hit the upper 90’s with a potentially plus hard slider that he fires from a projectable 6’4”, 182 pound frame. 2019 will be his first year as a starter, so while the upside is high, so is the risk. Prime Projection: 9/3.61/1.28/125 in 119 IP ETA: 2021 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #469 – ranked around Griffin Roberts, Daulton Jefferies, and Mike Ford

74) Mason Feole LHP, Connecticut, 21.? – Unorthodox, reliever like delivery. Feole has a low 90’s fastball and potentially plus curveball that racked up 120 strikeouts in 100.2 IP in 2018, but due to a lack of third pitch and aforementioned delivery, there is major pen risk. Prime Projection: 8/3.65/1.25/112 in 110 IP ETA: 2022 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #470 – ranked around see above.

75) Kendall Williams RHP, HS, 18.7 – Projectable 6’6”, 190 pounds with a low 90’s fastball that should tick up as he ages and good feel for a breaking ball. Prime Projection: 12/3.85/1.31/165 in 171 IP ETA: 2024 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #471 – ranked around see above

76) Logan Wyatt 1B, Louisville, 21.5 – Advanced approach at the plate with plus raw power that he hasn’t completely tapped into. Prime Projection: 78/22/81/.267/.359/.459/2 ETA: 2022 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #472 – ranked around see above

77) Kyren Paris SS, HS, 17.4 – One of the youngest players in the draft class. I always have an affinity for these guys because I was one of the youngest players in my “draft” class too. Paris is an above average runner who makes good contact and should develop more power as he ages. Prime Projection: 76/16/76/.273/.339/.427/13 ETA: 2024

78) Quin Cotton OF, Grand Canyon, 21.0 – Good athlete with a plus power-speed combo. How much of that raw power he taps into this season will dictate his draft day value. Prime Projection: 78/18/75/.257/.318/.421/13 ETA: 2022

79) Quinn Priester RHP, HS, 18.6 – Cold weather arm who has less experience than many of his peers. High spin rate curveball and developing high spin rate two seamer are his best weapons. Prime Projection: 11/3.95/1.32/154 in 162 IP ETA: 2024

80) Matt Canterino RHP, Rice, 21.4 – Solid 4-pitch mix. Herky jerky reliever like delivery, but can’t argue with the numbers he put up at Rice (3.06/0.93/116/22 in 94 IP) and the Cape (2.59/1.08/29/10 in 24.1 IP). Prime Projection: 9/3.78/1.27/126 in 132 IP ETA: 2021

81) Rick Devito RHP, Seton Hall, 20.7 – Dominated the Big East his sophomore season with a pitching line of 1.88/1.03/67/22 in 62 IP. Devito has the potential for 3 above average pitches (fastball, curveball, changeup), all of which he can throw for strikes, and he is young for the class. Prime Projection: 11/3.92/1.30/166 in 178 IP ETA: 2022

82) Judson Fabian OF, HS, 18.6 – Plus bat speed and plus speed with an advanced approach at the plate. Power should develop as he matures. Prime Projection: 82/18/73/.273/.347/.441/16 ETA: 2024

83) Bryant Packard OF, East Carolina, 21.6 – Slashed .406/.462/.671 with 14 homers and a 46/20 K/BB in the American Athletic Conference, and then backed up that performance in the Cape Cod League (.997 OPS in 18 games). At 6’3”, 210 pounds, Packard has the attributes to be a power hitting corner outfielder. Prime Projection: 73/22/80/.264/.345/.458/6 ETA: 2022

84) Jimmy Lewis RHP, HS, 18.5 – Projectable 6’6”, 200 pounds with good control and the potential for 3 above average pitches (fastball, curveball, changeup). Prime Projection: 13/3.89/1.25/178 in 181 IP ETA: 2024

85) Dilan Rosario SS, HS, 17.10 – Plus 60 yard dash times with a swing geared towards all field contact and plenty of power projection at 6’2”, 170 pounds. Prime Projection: 79/17/74/.270/.335/.430/18 ETA: 2024

86) Hylan Hall OF, HS, 18.2 – Toolsy athlete with plus speed and a quick bat. Raw at the plate and power is currently below average, but there are skills to dream on here. Prime Projection: 78/18/74/.257/.326/.438/18 ETA: 2024

87) Maximo Acosta SS, TEX, 16.5 – Prototypical leadoff hitter with plus speed, a good feel to hit, and developing power. Prime Projection: 88/16/69/.273/.338/.427/23 ETA: 2026

88) Anthony Volpe SS, HS, 17.11 – Plus defensive middle infielder with plus speed and makes hard line drive contact. Has a chance to be a solid all around contributor. Prime Projection: 78/15/71/.271/.335/.422/15 ETA: 2024

89) Christian Cairo SS, HS, 17.9 – Son of Miguel Cairo. Christian is a plus runner with a high contact oriented approach and below average power. Prime Projection: 81/13/62/.276/.341/.412/15 ETA: 2024

90) Spencer Brickhouse 1B, East Carolina, 21.0 – Big raw power befitting his last name, but the gains he made with his contact percentage his sophomore year in the AAC disappeared in the Cape Cod League. Prime Projection: 71/24/78/.252/.324/.451/2 ETA: 2022

91) Brooks Lee SS, HS, 18.1 – Good feel to hit and good defensive player but has below average power and speed. Better in real life than fantasy. Prime Projection: 81/17/69/.283/.345/.420/7 ETA: 2024

92) Arol Vera SS, LAA, 16?? – Another lean, 6’2” projectable J2 kid. Vera is a switch hitter with a smooth swing from both sides. Good feel to hit and has shown power in batting practice. Prime Projection: 81/21/78/.275/.348/.459/8 ETA: 2026

93) Adael Amador SS, COL, 16?? – Not a long, lean, and projectable J2 prospect, but Amador is an advanced hitter with a strong history of performance in international competition. Prime Projection: 82/18/66/.283/.351/.435/9 ETA: 2025

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
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