Mick Abel – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on August 29, 2022August 29, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (8/29/22)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (8/29/22):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT, INCLUDING:
-TOP 350 AUGUST 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 455 AUGUST 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 10 TRADE NEGOTIATION TACTICS (one of my favorite things I’ve ever written)
-MID-SEASON OBP TOP 447 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-MID-SEASON POINTS/6+CATS/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 430 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 40 2023 FYPD RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

Kyle Manzardo TBR, 1B, 22.0 – Italian Lunch made quick work of the Blue Wahoos, ripping a line drive homer that made a beeline for the Truly Hard Seltzer sign hanging beyond the right field wall. I’m old enough to remember when a man choosing to drink a hard seltzer would be met with endless ridicule, but these days we can drink anything we want without being made fun of! Progress! Since being called up to Double-A he’s dominating with a 1.052 OPS and a 15.9% K%. Not missing a beat in the upper minors takes away any obstacle to flying him up the rankings. He checked in at #188 on the Updated Top 455 Dynasty Rankings that hit my Patreon last week.

Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 18.6 – Speaking of flying up the rankings, Jackson “flying up the rankings” Chourio cracked his 5th homer in 21 games at High-A (17 homers in 83 games overall) on a 1 for 2 with 0 K day. He now has a 130 wRC+ with a 20.8% K% at the level. I know some people are hesitant to go all in on an 18 year old in the lower minors, but this stage of a superstar’s career is when the biggest mistakes are made in dynasty. Don’t let a savvy manager steal him away from you for a good but not truly great win now piece this off-season.

Oswald Peraza NYY, SS, SS, 22.3 – “You never get a second chance to make a first impression.” That quote couldn’t be truer when it comes to prospects. A bad start to the season will have guys tumble down the rankings, and even they play with their hair on fire for the rest of the year, it’s like barely anyone notices. Peraza legitimately decimated a 426 foot homer that left his bat in the blink of an eye. He also tacked on a stolen base and went 4 for 7 in a doubleheader. He’s slashing .293/.361/.507 with 13 homers, 21 steals, and a 61/20 K/BB in his last 58 games at Triple-A.

Nick Lodolo CIN, LHP, 24.5 – 7 IP, 5 hits, 3 ER, 5/1 K/BB vs. Miami. The underlying numbers looked better though with his curve and change putting up a silly 77% whiff% and 50% whiff%, respectively. The Solo Lodolo man is going to have to do it by himself because Cincy has the 3rd worst defense in baseball and the home ballpark is terrible too. It definitely puts a little damper on how good I think he could be in a more neutral pitching environment, but I love him enough to overlook the negatives. He clocked in at #116 overall on the Updated Top 455 Dynasty Rankings. I’m all in on him despite the red flags that are being waved directly in front of my eyes.

Roansy Contreras PIT, RHP, 22.9 – 5 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 7/2 K/BB vs. PHI. The underlying numbers were a mixed bag with his velocity down majorly across the board, but it was working for him because he put up a 40% whiff% with a 86.4 EV against. The fastball being down almost 2 MPH to a pedestrian 94.3 MPH isn’t great to see though. I’m honestly not sure what to think here, but I’m leaning more towards the positive side.

Taj Bradley TBR, RHP, 21.7 – Bradley desperately needed a good start at Triple-A after a stretch of rough ones, and he got it yesterday, going 6 IP with 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 5/1 K/BB. His 20.6%/7.4% K%/BB% in 30 IP at the level isn’t great. He might be setting up to be more Drew Rasmussen than Shane McClanahan. I don’t even mean that as too much of a diss as I love Rasmussen.

Max Muncy LAD, 1B/2B, 31.11 – This is just a heads up that Muncy is completely healthy after an elbow injury tanked the first half on his season. He went 3 for 5 yesterday and has a 176 wRC+ with a 92.8 MPH EV in 95 August PA. He’ll probably come at a discounted price this off-season unless he really goes out of his mind the rest of the way, which is possible.

Alex Bregman HOU, 3B, 28.4 – Continuing the “just a heads up that this guy is healthy now” segment of our programming, Bregman lifted off for his 7th homer in his last 17 games. He’s fully healthy after off-season wrist surgery sapped his power earlier in the year.

Mike Trout LAA, OF, 31.0 – Trout ripped his 4th homer in 9 games since returning from that “pretty rare” back injury. Apparently the back injury wasn’t rare enough to stop Trout.

Jake McCarthy ARI, OF, 25.1 – 1 for 4 with a 104.6 MPH double off Kendal Graveman. He stole 2 bags on Saturday. He’s now slashing .291/.352/.432 with 4 homers, 12 steals, and a 20.4%/7.7% K%/BB% in 68 games. I loved taking a flier on McCarthy this off-season. I ranked him 238th on my off-season Top 500 Prospects Rankings and wrote, “McCarthy is going to have to scratch and claw for playing time, but he has a very fantasy friendly profile if he can win some. He put up an elite 30.1 ft/sec sprint speed in his MLB debut and was 29 for 33 on the bases in 85 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He hits the ball on the ground too much and showed some swing and miss this year, but if you are looking for a close to the majors option with legitimate upside, McCarthy is your guy.”

Lars Nootbaar STL, OF, 24.11 – 1 for 3 with a walk and a 355 foot dinger off Jake Odorizzi for his 9th homer in 75 games. Nootbaar has been smashing the ball with a 91.7 MPH EV and his 20.4%/14.9% K%/BB% is impressive. He’s a line drive hitter and he doesn’t run a ton, so the fantasy upside isn’t huge, but St. Louis develops underrated hitters like him like it’s their job … come to think of it, it is their job.

Matt Mervis CHC, 1B, 24.4 – McCarthy and Nootbaar both ended up being excellent older fringe types to take a shot on last off-season, and Mervis is shaping up to be that guy this off-season. He went 2 for 5 with his 6th homer in 31 games at Triple-A, and it comes with a 13.7%/9.2% K%/BB%. The first base job could be his for the taking next year.

Stone Garrett ARI, OF, 26.9 – Stone Garrett crushed a 105.8 MPH dinger off Dylan Cease for his first MLB homer. He’s been absolutely crushing the ball in his 5 game debut with a 98.8 MPH EV. This is the first time he’s playing in a week, and considering Stone Garrett sounds like the protagonist in a spy novel, I have questions as to what he’s been up to over that missing week. Playing time might be an issue while he takes down international criminals on the side, but the power is for real when he does play. And before you say being a major league baseball player and a spy is unrealistic, you should look into Moe Berg.

Henry Davis PIT, C, 22.9/Endy Rodriguez PIT, C, 22.3 – Davis has been on a rehab assignment at Single-A returning from his 2nd wrist injury and he walloped his first homer in 4 games. Endy Rodriguez has been so dominant in his absence at Double-A (3 for 4 with a double yesterday) that a catcher competition is definitely brewing. The good news is that there is plenty of at bats to go around for everyone in Pitt. Both guys can keep catcher eligibility, stay healthy, and thrive.

Logan O’Hoppe LAA, C, 22.5 – I called O’Hoppe the most underrated catcher in baseball this off-season, and he’s not underrated anymore as he absolutely unloaded on his 22nd homer of the year at Double-A. He has a 184 wRC+ in 16 games since joining LA, and the future catcher job is his for the taking.

Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 22.4 – Casas busted out the whooping stick against a side winding righty, crushing a homer out to left center on a 2 for 4 day. He has a 1.040 OPS in his last 27 games at Triple-A. I think it’s time for Casas to get his feet wet against MLB pitching.

Joey Wiemer MIL, OF, 23.5 – Just when you’re ready to give up, Wiemer pulls you back in, going 2 for 4 with his 5th homer in 22 games at Triple-A. The K% is at a not terrible 23.3% and he’s also stolen 4 bags. I’ve held strong on Wiemer towards the back of the Top 100 because despite the struggles the raw talent is just too good to completely give up on. He’s also knocking on the door of the bigs.

Angel Martinez CLE, SS, 20.7 – Martinez got called up to Double-A and he’s thriving. He went 2 for 3 with a triple and homer yesterday, and he’s now slashing .292/.357/.750 with 2 homers, 1 steal, and a 13.8%/10.3% K%/BB% in 7 games. The power ticked up this year, and he combines that with plus speed and a plus plate approach. He’s setting up to be a solid across the board contributor, and considering he’s only 20, maybe he has another gear in there too.

Mick Abel PHI, RHP, 21.0 – 2.2 IP, 5 hits, 3 ER, 2/3 K/BB at Double-A. I don’t have Abel quite on the same level as Painter (who had another good start at Double-A on Saturday), but I still like Abel a lot despite the clunker yesterday. He might be settling in more in the mid-rotation range though as he didn’t really dominate High-A either with a 4.01 ERA and 27.7%/10.2% K%/BB%.

Chase Silseth LAA, RHP, 22.3 – 6 IP, 2 hits, 2 ER, 11/1 K/BB at Double-A. Silseth has been jerked around a bit as an up and down arm, which I doubt was the best thing for his development, but I do get that sometimes the team comes first. Regardless, he’s ripped up Double-A with a 2.63 ERA and a 33.5%/8.7% K%/BB% in 65 IP. He throws a 5 pitch mix headlined by a 95.4 MPH fastball. Despite getting hit up in the majors, he’s still an exciting pitching prospect.

Will Warren NYY, RHP, 23.2/Taylor Dollard SEA, RHP, 23.6 – Warren went 6 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER, and a 5/2 K/BB at Double-A. Dollard went 6 IP with 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 5/0 K/BB at Double-A. Neither guy has the K rates to get me really excited for fantasy (19.8% and 23%, respectively), but both can definitely be solid real life pitchers. The deeper the league, the more I would like them.

Garrett Mitchell MIL, OF, 24.0 – Mitchell made his MLB debut on Sunday and went 1 for 4 with a K and 2 RBI. The K rate and GB% is what to watch for, and right now the launch angle is sitting at 26.2 degrees and the whiff% is 28.6%. It’s only one game, but it’s better than if he had a 50% whiff% with a negative 2 degree launch angle. One game down, an entire career to go.

Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 21.11 – The #1 fantasy prospect in baseball will make his MLB debut today after working over upper minors pitching all season. He’s only 5’10” and has played in favorable hitter’s environments. He’s also shown some swing and miss throughout his career. The speed is unquestioned, so the power and strikeouts will be what to watch for in this final month.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on May 9, 2022May 17, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/9/22)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/9/22):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED APRIL 2022 TOP 414 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED MAY 2022 TOP 316 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

George Kirby SEA, RHP, 24.2 – Kirby made his MLB debut and went 6 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER and a 7/0 K/BB vs. Tampa. The 4-seamer dominated, sitting 95.8 MPH with a 48% whiff% on the pitch. He had just climbed to #8 overall on my Updated Top 316 Prospects Rankings over on my Patreon, writing, “He could take Brash’s spot in the rotation shortly.” Granted, you didn’t have to be Prospectdamus to see that one coming.

Royce Lewis MIN, SS, 22.10 – Lewis followed in Kirby’s footsteps, rising to #7 on the Updated Prospects List and then getting the call shortly after that. He’s 3 for 10 with a double and K in his 3 game debut, and the underlying numbers are impressive with a 91.8 MPH EV, 22.1 degree launch, and an 11.1% whiff%. He might not stay up with Correa’s injury not as bad as originally feared, but Lewis is trending towards being a fantasy star.

Manuel Margot TBR, OF, 27.6 – I’ve had Margot in the late career breakout bucket for awhile now, seeing a similar career path to Lorenzo Cain, and it might finally be happening as Margot ripped his third homer of the year to bring his season wRC+ up to 170 in 24 games. He has a career high 91.4 MPH EV, 17.3 degree launch angle, and 19.7% whiff%.

Juan Yepez STL, 1B/3B/OF, 24.0 – Yepez smashed his first MLB homer on a 406 foot shot to the deepest part of the ballpark. He is starting his MLB career on a 5 game hit streak, and 4 of those games were multi hit games. He’s not guaranteed a full time job, but as long as he keeps hitting, they will find a way to get his bat in the lineup.

Owen Miller CLE, 1B/2B, 25.6 – Miller stays hot with his 3rd homer in 22 games. He’s handily outperforming his underlying numbers (.445 wOBA vs. .368 xwOBA), so while I think he can be a solid bat long term, I don’t think he is going to maintain anything close to this level. I would consider him a sell high candidate.

Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 21.7 – Carroll has been going bonkos all season, and he’s now going doubly bonkos with his 2nd straight 2 homer game. That’s 4 homers in his last 2 games for 9 homers on the season. Tack on 8 steals and a .326 BA and he is in the conversation for the top prospect in baseball. He checked in at #5 on my Updated Top 316 Prospects Rankings.

Zack Gelof OAK, 3B, 22.5 – Gelof lifted off twice as well for his 3rd and 4th homers in 25 games at Double-A, and both were hit the opposite way. A fan in a cartoonishly sized cowboy hat had the first homer all lined up but he botched the play. Gelof has a 123 wRC+ at the level, but a 27.6%/6.5% is a little worrisome when trying to project his production out on the MLB level.

Austin Martin MIN, OF, 23.0 – It took long enough but Martin finally got on the board, pulling a breaking ball that never really broke for his 1st homer of the year. 13.7%/12.8% K%/BB% with 14 steals in 25 games at Double-A looks great, but he’s just not doing enough damage on contact with a .337 SLG.

Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 19.8 – Lawlar continues to separate himself from the 2021 high school SS class, going 2 for 5 with a double, homer, and 0 K’s. He’s now slashing .301/.443/.542 with 6 homers, 15 steals, and a 25.5%/16% K%/BB% in 23 games at Single-A.

Taj Bradley TBR, RHP, 21.0 – 5 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 5/0 K/BB at Double-A. Plus control of his mid 90’s fastball is his bread and butter, and the secondaries have been more refined this year. He rose to #53 overall on the Updated Prospects Rankings, one spot ahead of one of my favorite prospects, Brayan Bello.

Mick Abel PHI, RHP, 20.7 – 4 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 6/5 K/BB at High-A. Seeing all the walks coming back is not great, but it’s still been much improved overall with a 10.4% BB% in 18 IP. The stuff is filthy and he’s been a K machine with a 37.7% K%. After the top arms in the upper levels graduate, Abel should rise into elite pitching prospect territory.

Edward Cabrera MIA, RHP, 23.11 – Max Meyer is making everyone forget about Cabrera, but he did his best to make as all remember yesterday, going 5 IP with 3 hits, 0 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB. He’s still struggling with his control on the season though with a 15/8 K/BB in 13 IP. Meyer should be the next man up in Miami, but it’s not out the realm they go back to Cabrera first.

Edwin Arroyo SEA, SS, 18.7 – 2 for 5 with his 5th homer in 24 games at Single-A. He now has a 149 wRC+ with 6 steals and a 18.6%/10.6% K%/BB%. Arroyo has been out of his mind recently and is one of the top breakouts in the first month of the season. He climbed to #167 on the Updated Top 316 Prospects Rankings, and even that might not be enough.

Carson Williams TBR, SS, 18.9 – Williams is another 18 year old breaking out in full season ball, jacking his 3rd homer in 21 games and is now slashing .301/.372/.578 with 3 homers, and 7 steals. The 37.2% K% is quite high, but he’s only 18, and his swing is so damn explosive at 6’2”, 180 pounds it’s hard not to get excited.

Roberto Campos DET, OF, 18.10 – Campos crushed his first homer of the year in 25 games at Single-A, but he’s been hitting the ball really hard all year and his power isn’t in question. More importantly, the K rate has been strong with a 22.4%/7.1% K%/BB% and has been solid all year with a 108 wRC+. Now is probably the time to buy in if he’s still out there.

Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 18.1 – The 18 year old Chourio made his season debut at Single-A last week and he’s done nothing but hit since then. He cranked his first homer yesterday and is now slashing .480/.519/.800 with 1 homer, 2 steals, and a 14.8%/7.4% K%/BB% in 6 games. I’ve ranked Chourio pretty aggressively, and the hype is about to blow up if he keeps this up. Elite prospect potential.

Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 22.2 – Make it #6 for Casas at Triple-A. I imagine that when Bobbly Dalbec looks in the mirror to brush to his teeth in the morning, he sees Casas right behind him like it’s a hacky horror movie.

Nick Yorke BOS, 2B, 20.0 – Yorke’s been finding his power stroke of late, drilling his first 2 homers of the year in his last 5 games. This one was a no doubter out to deep centerfield, showing he definitely has some raw juice in the tank. He has a 21.3% K% with a .238 BA, so the hit tool hasn’t exactly been as elite as hoped.

Justin Foscue TEX, 2B/3B, 23.1 – Foscue has been quietly putting in work at Double-A, going 2 for 3 with a homer and 2 walks. He has a 15.9%/14.5% K%/BB% with a 145 wRC+ in 16 games at Double-A. He’s joining Josh Jung as two rock solid college bats who should produce in Texas for years to come.

Brendon Davis LAA, 3B/OF, 24.8 – 2 for 5 with his 5th homer. The surface stats haven’t been great with an 88 wRC+, but the underlying numbers look excellent with a 17.9%/12.2% K%/BB% and a 37.6% GB% in 28 games at Triple-A. He has big power at 6’4”, 185 pounds, and seeing the K rate being kept in check is big.

Blaze Alexander ARI, SS, 22.11 – Alexander is bouncing back from a down 2021, walloping 2 homers yesterday and is now slashing .322/.403/.644 with 4 homers and 3 steals in 15 games. 31.3% K% is still too high, but he’s putting himself back on the map.

Ken Waldichuk NYY, LHP, 24.3 – Waldichuk had the best start of the day, going 5 hitless innings with a 12/3 K/BB. He’s a 24 year old “crafty lefty” dominating younger competition at Double-A with a 1.14 ERA and 40/9 K/BB in 23.2 IP. I wouldn’t go crazy for him, but the guy obviously knows how to pitch.

Hayden Wesneski NYY, RHP, 24.4 – Wesneski is the 24 year old Yankees pitching prospect I prefer, and he pitched damn well himself, going 5 IP with 4 hits, 2 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB at Triple-A. He does have the big stuff and is now sitting on a 2.48 ERA with a 32/6/ K/BB in 29 IP.

Michael Burrows PIT, RHP, 22.5 – One of the most underrated pitchers in the minors continued his dominance, going 4 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB. The stuff is straight filthy and he’s rocking a 34%/6.8% K%/BB% in 26.2 IP at Double-A. He’s a must pick up in every league.

Jacob Amaya LAD, SS, 23.8 – The Amaya breakout continues, going 3 for 5 with a triple, homer, and a 1/3 K/BB in a doubleheader. Simply calling it a breakout might be an understatement because the the numbers are straight elite, slashing .351/.473/.797 with 7 homers (27.9% GB%), 2 steals, and a 13.2%/18.7% K%/BB% in 22 games at Double-A. He cracked the Updated Prospects Rankings at #200, and he just keeps on rising.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED APRIL 2022 TOP 414 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 316 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on January 4, 2021March 3, 2021 by Michael Halpern

Top 50 2020/21 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings

The Sneak Peek Series continues with the Top 50 2020/21 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings. The full FYPD list will be released concurrently with the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings, expected to be out the week after the Super Bowl, sometime between February 8th-14th (2020’s list was out on Feb. 9th). Here is the Top 50 2020/21 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR UP TO DAILY WEEKDAY CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE SEASON, INCLUDING ARTICLES, PODCASTS, RANKINGS, AND OTHER COOL STUFF I THINK UP ALONG THE WAY

Click here for the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

Player Name TEAM, POSITION, AGE (Years.Months on 2021 Opening Day – Months are on a scale of 0-11 … I know it is not mathematically correct, but I do all of this manually)

Projections (Hitters): R/HR/RBI/AVG/OBP/SLG/SB
(Pitchers): Wins/ERA/WHIP/K/Saves

*Prime Projections – These projections are meant to give you a general idea of what I think about a prospect’s future stat profile in a relatively good outcome scenario. I find this helpful as a quick reference to see how a prospect’s tools/skills translate to fantasy categories.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR UP TO DAILY WEEKDAY CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE SEASON, INCLUDING ARTICLES, PODCASTS, RANKINGS, AND OTHER COOL STUFF I THINK UP ALONG THE WAY

1) Spencer Torkelson DET, 3B/1B, 21.7 – Selected 1st overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Tork launched 54 homers in 129 games at Arizona State. He’s a big bodied power hitter with patience, below average speed, and a BA that shouldn’t hurt you. The no brainer pick for #1 overall. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 89/35/102/.270/.353/.529/3

2) Austin Martin TOR, OF, 22.0 – Selected 5th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft but signed for the 2nd largest signing bonus. Martin has a quick bat with natural loft, an advanced plate approach and above average speed. If power fully develops, he will pass Tork as an elite all category stud. A great consolation prize if you missed out on the #1 pick. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 93/23/82/.284/.358/.455/13

3) Zac Veen COL, OF, 19.4 – Selected 9th overall, the 6’4”, 190 pound Veen has a lightening quick lefty swing with natural loft. His patient plate approach, good feel to hit, and at least plus power potential gives him the ingredients to turn into a heart of the order beast. Combine all that with Coors, and Veen has the highest upside on the list. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 86/28/93/.270/.342/.491/10

4) Ha-Seong Kim SD, SS/2B, 25.5 – At 5’9”, 167 pounds Kim has been one of the best players in the KBO since he was 19 years old. He took his game to the next level in 2020, slashing .306/.397/.523 with 30 homers, 23 steals, and a 68/75 K/BB in 138 games. He’s a safe proximity play with the ability to contribute in every category, and there is some nice upside too if the stats translate better than expected. 2021 Projection: 79/19/71/.271/.337/.433/15

5) Nick Gonzales PIT, 2B/SS, 21.10 – Selected 7th overall, the 5’10”, 190 pound Gonzales put up insane numbers in an extreme hitter’s environment at New Mexico State, rocking 12 homers with a .448 BA and 10/21 K/BB in 16 games before the season got shutdown. He performed well in the wood bat Cape Cod League too with 7 homers, a .351 BA and a 22/20 K/BB in 42 games. He has one of the best hit tools in the draft and while he isn’t projected for huge homer or steal totals, he should be an all category stat stuffer. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 86/21/74/.281/.348/.448/9

6) Asa Lacy KC, LHP, 21.10 – Selected 4th overall, Lacy is a 6’4” lefty with a nasty mid 90’s fastball and two potentially plus secondaries in his changeup and slider. His only 4 starts in 2020 were absolutely dominant with a 0.75 ERA and 46/8 K/BB in 24 IP. Walk rates were high in college with a 4.0 BB/9 in 152 IP, but his control/command is better than that number indicates. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 13/3.66/1.23/211 in 186 IP

7) Pete-Crow Armstrong NYM, OF, 19.0 -Selected 19th overall, Armstrong stands out for his plus speed, plus defense, and strong track record of hitting. Power hasn’t been a big part of his game, but he has recently added muscle onto his projectable 6’1” frame, and a 99 MPH exit velocity mark at a 2019 Perfect Game event is damn good. Armstrong is my favorite target in first year player drafts relative to consensus. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 88/18/73/.274/.340/.428/21

8) Max Meyer MIA, RHP, 22.1 – Selected 3rd overall, the 6’0”, 196 pound Meyer is an excellent athlete with an elite fastball/slider combo and a changeup that has the ability to develop into a legitimate third pitch. There is some bullpen risk, but we’ve seen predominantly two pitch starters given the chance to start of late and thrive. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 12/3.74/1.22/191 in 172 IP

9) Emerson Hancock SEA, RHP, 21.10 – Selected 6th overall, Hancock is a 6’4” righty with plus command of a mid 90’s fastball and plus changeup. Slider is inconsistent and will be the key to reaching his full potential. Watching some of his better starts makes you want to place him as the top overall pitcher, but the consistency hasn’t been there. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 12/3.83/1.20/186 in 178 IP

10) Garrett Mitchell MIL, OF, 22.7 – Selected 20th overall, Mitchell builds his game around double plus speed and plus centerfield defense. At 6’3”, 215 pounds the plus raw power is in there, but he hasn’t been able to tap into yet with a low launch angle and 0 homers in 15 games in 2020 (6 homers in 62 game in 2019). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 82/16/66/.266/.328/.419/24

11) Cristian Hernandez CHC, SS, 17.3 – At 6’2”, 175 pounds Hernandez takes vicious hacks at the dish, foreshadowing monster power potential when his projectable frame fills out. He also gets high marks for his athleticism, feel to hit, and plus speed. The top international prospects consistently get underrated in first year player drafts, so while the risk is high, the discount in drafts mitigates that. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 83/26/87/.273/.341/.479/14

12) Wilman Diaz LAD, SS, 17.4 – At 6’2”, 170 pounds Diaz is a plus athlete who has displayed a good feel to hit and the ability to hit it with authority in Venezuelan youth leagues. The power potential is plus as he gains strength, and he should retain enough speed to steal 10+ bags even as he gains weight. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 87/22/79/.281/.352/.462/14

13) Garrett Crochet CHW, LHP, 21.9 – Selected 11th overall, Crochet made it all the way up to the Majors and unleashed an unhittable, double plus 100.1 MPH fastball. He’s never been a full time starter, so bullpen risk is high, although his upside would be considerable as a closer. Injury risk is high too as shoulder soreness delayed the start of his college season and he suffered a flexor strain to his forearm to end his season during the MLB playoffs. 2021 Projection: 2/4.23/1.33/34 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.77/1.28/185 in 161 IP

14) Heston Kjerstad BAL, OF, 22.2 – Selected 2nd overall, the 6’3”, 220 pound Kherstad has at least plus power and put up impressive home run totals from day 1 in the SEC, knocking 37 homers in 150 career games. The K/BB numbers are suspect (129/54), but he was in the midst of a Junior year breakout before the season got shutdown (6 homers with a 9/7 K/BB in 16 games). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 73/28/88/.251/.320/.482/3

15) Austin Hendrick CIN, OF, 19.10 – Selected 12th overall, Hendrick generates incredible bat speed with at least plus power potential. He put up a 105 MPH exit velocity at a Perfect Game event in 2019, which puts him in elite territory for his class. On the downside, there is some swing and miss concerns, he’s old for his class, and he hasn’t consistently faced the toughest competition. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 76/29/89/.252/.334/.490/6

16) Bryce Jarvis ARI, RHP, 23.3 – Selected 18th overall, Jarvis took a major step forward in 2020 with his fastball ticking up into the mid 90’s. He refined his breaking balls to become above average pitches and showed much improved control. He didn’t have the opportunity to prove he can do it for more than 27 IP, but he now has the chance for 4 above average pitches (fastball, curve, slider, change) with above average control/command. Along with Pete-Crow Armstrong, Jarvis is a player I’m targeting everywhere relative to price. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 12/3.82/1.26/188 in 172 IP

17) Mick Abel PHI, RHP, 19.8 – Selected 15th overall, Abel is your prototypical projectable high school pitcher at 6’5”, 190 pounds with a potentially plus 3 pitch mix (fastball, slider, change). He throws strikes but he’s more control over command right now. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 13/3.72/1.23/192 in 184 IP

18) Carlos Colmenarez TB, SS, 17.4 – At 5’10”, 175 pounds Colmenarez has a quick, compact lefty swing with natural loft that should lead to more power as he ages. He’s hit well in games and is an average runner with above average potential. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 80/23/80/.275/.343/.453/10

19) Robert Hassell SD, OF, 19.8 – Selected 8th overall, Hassell has the consensus top hit tool in the high school class, but hasn’t hit for very much power and doesn’t project for huge power numbers down the line either. A 91 MPH top exit velocity mark at Perfect game events in 2019 isn’t bad, but it’s not great either. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 87/16/69/.286/.348/.416/15

20) Austin Wells NYY, C, 21.9 – Selected 28th overall, the lefty hitting Wells is an offensive minded catcher with a patient approach and power to all fields. College home run totals don’t exactly jump out at you (14 homers in 112 games including the Cape), and there are strikeout issues (103 K’s), but the Yankee Stadium short porch should help the power play up and his ability to hit to all fields gives him the chance to hit for average even with high strikeout totals. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 77/24/83/.268/.341/.458/5

21) Tomoyuki Sugano FA, RHP, 31.6 – One of the best pitchers in Japan since 2013, Sugano is known for his pinpoint control (1.6 BB/9) rather than gaudy strikeout totals (8.6 K/9). He throws a low 90’s fastball with two different sliders and a split finger as his best secondary. 2021 Projection: 10/4.28/1.27/148 in 162 IP

22) Reid Detmers LAA, LHP, 21.9 – Selected 10th overall, Detmers is a 6’2” lefty with plus command over low 90’s heat and a deadly curveball. He’s polish over stuff, but it didn’t stop him from piling up K’s in college (19.6 K/9 in 22 IP in 2020). Change has the potential to be above average while the slider lags behind. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 11/3.92/1.26/188 in 179 IP

23) Yoelqui Cespedes CHW, OF, 23.6 – Cespedes recently packed on muscle weight and revamped his swing in order to get more power out of his 5’9”, 205 pound frame. He’s a plus runner and he has the bloodlines, so while he is mostly still a mystery and I see he is getting ranked lower in other places, I’m willing to take my shot at this point in the draft. You also won’t have to wait 4-5 years to see what you have. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 76/19/72/.255/.323/.430/16

24) Pedro Leon HOU, OF, 22.10 – Leon is an explosive athlete who has dominated in Cuba over two seasons, slashing .359/.420/.678 with 21 homers, 8 steals and a 46/20 K/BB in 65 games. He doesn’t have a long professional track record and the hit tool is questionable, but the upside is high. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 77/22/74/.243/.326/.443/12

25) Pedro Pineda OAK, OF, 17.7 – Pineda has possibly the highest upside in the international class with a plus power/speed combo and a quick bat that is geared for flyballs. He’s had some swing and miss problems and is still raw at the plate, so the risk is high. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 73/24/81/.248/.327/.458/15

26) Aaron Sabato MIN, 1B, 21.10 – Selected 27th overall, Sabato is a 6’2”, 230 pound 1B only prospect who smashed 25 homers in 83 games in the ACC. He’s a patient hitter with some swing and miss concerns. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 68/25/81/.252/.337/.469/0

27) Justin Foscue TEX, 2B/3B, 22.0 – Selected 14th overall, Foscue has the potential for plus hit but doesn’t have big power or speed. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 83/19/71/.276/.339/.434/5

28) Ed Howard CHC, SS, 19.8 – Selected 16th overall, Howard’s best skill is his plus shortstop defense. The bat isn’t as strong, although he has hit well against top competition and will certainly add power at 6’2”, 185 pounds. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 79/20/77/.264/.332/.444/9

29) Nick Bitsko TB, RHP, 18.10 – Selected 24th overall, Bitsko is one of the youngest players in the draft due to reclassifying and coming out a year early. At 6’4”, 220 pounds he has prototypical starter size with a fastball that has touched 98 MPH and features a nasty curveball as his money pitch. He throws strikes and shows good feel on his lesser used changeup. Underwent surgery to repair a labrum issue in December and is expected to miss some of 2021. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 11/3.93/1.29/181 in 178 IP

30) Isaiah Greene NYM, OF, 19.7 – Selected 69th overall, Greene is a 6’1”, 180 pound lefty with plus speed and a swing geared for contact. He’s a great athlete with room to fill out his frame, so the power may come. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 82/17/68/.272/.336/.419/20

31) Jordan Walker STL, 3B, 18.10 – Selected 21st overall, Walker is 6’5”, 220 pounds with a quick swing and plus power. Like many hitters this tall, there are questions about the ultimate hit tool. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 75/25/82/.261/.330/.467/7

32) Jake Vogel LAD, OF, 19.6 – Selected 100th overall, Vogel’s calling card is his double plus speed and excellent athleticism. He’s only 5’11”, 165 pounds, but he has sneaky pop evidenced by a top exit velocity of 97 MPH at a 2019 Perfect game event, which puts him in the top 4% of his class. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 77/18/73/.262/.326/.420/22

33) Tanner Burns CLE, RHP, 22.3 – Selected 36th overall, Burns has a history of excellent production in the SEC with a pitching line of 2.86/1.17/210/67 in 188.2 career IP. He has plus command over a fastball he can ramp up to 97 MPH, to go along with a plus breaking ball and average change. He’s on the small side at 6’0”, 215 pounds and had shoulder problems in 2019, so durability is a concern. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.15/1.27/162 in 168 IP

34) Maikol Hernandez BAL, SS, 17.6 – At 6’3”, 175 pounds Hernandez has loads of upside with plus speed and the potential for plus power. He’s currently an all fields, line drive hitter who consistently makes hard contact. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 73/24/78/.259/.327/.452/13

35) Cade Cavalli WASH, RHP, 22.7 – Selected 22nd overall, Cavalli has a prototypical starter build at 6’4”, 226 pounds with mid 90’s heat, two swing and miss breaking balls, and a developing changeup. He’s had injury issues which has prevented him from pitching very much and there are control problems too, so the risk is high. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.06/1.33/155 in 156 IP

36) Bobby Miller LAD, RHP, 22.0 – Selected 29th overall, Miller is 6’5”, 220 pounds with a plus fastball that reaches the upper 90’s, a plus slider, and a potentially plus changeup. 2020 was the first year he was going to be a full time starter, and his delivery indicates some bullpen risk. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/3.92/1.29/149 in 151 IP

37) Zach DeLoach SEA, OF, 22.7 – Selected 43rd overall, DeLoach exploded in the 2019 Cape Cod League with a .353/.428/.541 triple-slash after disappointing with a .611 OPS in the SEC earlier that year. He carried over the Cape Cod league success in 2020 with a 1.336 OPS, 6 steals and a 3/14 K/BB in 18 games. He doesn’t have any elite tools, but has the chance to be an all category contributor. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/20/76/.267/.329/.437/10

38) Tyler Soderstrom OAK, C, 19.4 – Selected 26th overall, Soderstrom is an offensive minded catcher with the potential to hit for both average and power, but is not a lock to stick behind the plate. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 68/22/76/.268/.335/.446/4

39) Jhonny Piron TB, OF, 17.2 – At 6’1”, 165 pounds Piron is tooled up with excellent athleticism, plus speed and power projection, but needs to continue refining his hit tool. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 77/20/74/.256/.323/.442/14

40) Jared Shuster ATL, LHP, 22.8 – Selected 25th overall, Shuster showed dramatically improved control in the 2019 Cape Cod League (1.4 BB/9 in 32 IP), and not only did he maintain that in 26.1 IP in 2020 (1.4 BB/9), but he also increased his fastball velocity by about 4 MPH with the ability to hit 97 MPH. His best pitch is a plus changeup to go along with an average slider. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.21/1.30/168 in 173 IP

41) Jared Kelley CHW, RHP, 19.5 – Selected 47th overall, Kelley throws mid 90’s gas with a plus changeup, but lacks feel on his breaking ball. The upside is considerable if the breaking ball improves, but if it doesn’t he may end up in the pen. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 10/3.98/1.31/158 in 155 IP

42) Cole Wilcox TB, RHP, 21.9 – Selected 80th overall, Wilcox was starting to show improved control with only 2 walks in 23 IP before the season got shutdown (5.7 BB/9 in 2019). It’s a good sign as the stuff is nasty with a mid 90’s fastball, potentially plus slider and developing change. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.08/1.33/161 in 158 IP

43) Jordan Westburg BAL, SS, 22.1 – Selected 30th overall, Westburg has the raw talent to be a plus power/speed combo, but he hasn’t been able to tap into his raw power with only 10 homers in 124 NCAA games, and the hit tool is also a concern with high strikeout rates throughout his career. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 75/15/68/.246/.318/.420/13

44) Dillon Dingler DET, C, 22.6 – Selected 38th overall, Dingler was just starting to tap into his raw power in 2020 with 5 homers in 13 games. He’s a plus athlete for a catcher with the chance to steal a handful of bases, which is always nice to get from your catcher position. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 69/17/63/.260/.323/.421/7

45) Clayton Beeter LAD, RHP, 22.6 – Selected 66th overall, Beeter has impressive stuff with a mid to upper 90’s fastball and the potential for two plus breaking balls. 2020 was his first year as a starter in college, and while the numbers are impressive (2.14 ERA with a 33/4 K/BB), it came in only 21 IP and he had a 8.7 BB/9 in 20.2 IP in 2019. Reliever risk is high. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 7/3.83/1.32/141 in 127 IP

46) Hudson Haskin BAL, OF, 22.3 – Selected 39th overall, Haskin has shown the ability to hit for hard contact with strong plate approach numbers at Tulane, slashing .363/.457/.612 with 11 homers and a 39/40 K/BB in 73 career games. He’s a plus defender with plus speed although it only resulted in 5 career NCAA stolen bases. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 76/18/70/.263/.324/.426/9

47) Jared Jones PIT, RHP, 19.8 – Selected 44th overall, Jones is a great athlete with a mid to upper 90’s fastball, potentially plus slider and developing change. Control has been spotty and he doesn’t have ideal size at 6’1”, 180 pounds. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/4.11/1.34/154 in 151 IP

48) Owen Caissie CHC, OF, 18.9 – Selected 45th overall, Caissie is young for his high school class and has plus raw power with above average speed at 6’4”, 190 pounds, but it comes with strikeout issues. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 73/24/79/.238/.321/.462/9

49) Jordan Nwogu CHC, OF, 22.1 – Selected 88th overall, Nwogu is 6’3”, 235 pounds with a plus power/speed combo and very strong numbers in his 3 years in the Big Ten, slashing .334/.430/.545 with 20 homers, 30 steals, and a 96/63 K/BB in 125 career games. There are some concerns over his swing, but the upside is considerable. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/23/77/.253/.325/.457/14

50) Blaze Jordan BOS, 3B, 18.3 – Selected 89th overall, Jordan has been known for his prodigious raw power for years now, consistently putting up impressive exit velocity numbers, but limited defensive value means he’s likely going to have to hit his ceiling to see everyday at-bats. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 67/25/79/.250/.325/.473/4

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)