Posted on by Michael Halpern

Trevor Story and Spring Training Exploits

Trevor Story is the 30th ranked prospect in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post that I wrote in early February. I’m higher on him than most. In fact, I think I’m higher on him than any other prospect list I have read. But if you didn’t acquire Story at good value back in February, it is probably too late, as he has absolutely destroyed spring training pitching to the tune of, .378/.451/.911, with 6 homers in 51 PA. It seems like everyone has boarded the hype train. But it brings up the question, should his spring training stats matter?

In the sense that it has won him the starting SS job in Colorado, at least until/if Jose Reyes returns, his spring stats clearly matter. And for people that were either completely unaware of Story, or very down on his potential, then yeah, his monster spring stats should certainly put him on your radar. But for those of us who already knew and believed in the 20/20 upside, should his fantastic spring boost his stock even more? In other words, should we consider him a top 12 SS option for this season? After digging through some minor league stats from past years, the conclusion I came to is that I’m not so sure it should matter at all.

It didn’t take much searching before I found a good comparable, Mike Zunino. Just last spring, Zunino triple-slashed, .353/.431/.882, and jacked 7 homers in 58 spring training PA. Maybe this was a sign that the talented young hitter would finally break out? Nope. He followed that up with a regular season line of .174/.230/.300. The spring stats meant nothing. Similar to Story, Zunino was a young hitter with real strikeout issues. It isn’t a perfect comp, as Zunino can’t draw walks quite as well as Story, and had a history of struggling in the big leagues already. But what it does say to me, is that even an extreme case of spring training success will not guarantee a safe floor, let alone it being a harbinger for great success in the regular season.

There are many more examples. Well regarded hitting prospect Brandon Drury triple-slashed, .435/.533/.957, with 3 homers in 30 spring training PA last year. He then went on to put up a .756 OPS, with 5 total homers in 567 minor league PA split between Double-A and Triple-A, before hitting .214/.254/.375 in his MLB cup of coffee last September. Is he still considered a good hitting prospect? Yes. But were those spring training stats a good indicator for what he might do in his first taste of the majors? No.

We all know the old adage that spring training stats don’t matter, but it doesn’t stop us from getting drawn in year after year. I needed to dig into past spring training stats to remind myself of that. Pitchers are working on specific things and have no interest in making adjustments to what the hitter is doing. If Trevor Story wasn’t on your radar before, consider this his coming out party, but if he was, his hot spring training shouldn’t mean much to you. He is a talented fantasy prospect (top 30 in my book) who can surely surprise right out of the gate, but the more likely scenario is that there will be some bumps along the way. Add in the uncertainly surrounding Jose Reyes’ situation, and I don’t think Story has a great chance of cracking the top 12 this season. For 2016, I will give him a projection of 55/13/51/.250/8. For dynasty leagues, the strong spring only reinforces my high hopes for Story, and I will stick with my prime projection of 79/20/83/.258/14.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Derek Fisher, 2016 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Sleeper

Let the Houston Astros’ Derek Fisher be a lesson to us all. Search Engine Optimization is a real concern when naming your baby. If you want any of your child’s accomplishments to be found on the internet (if you can’t find it on Google, did it ever really happen?), your child better not share his/her name with a more popular person. Google’s Derek Fisher is a 5-time NBA champion, and current head coach of the New York Knicks. Conversely, the 3rd Google hit is a headline that reads, “Matt Barnes drove 95 miles to ‘beat the s—t’ out of Derek Fisher.” SEO giveth, and taketh away. Either way, Fisher’s uncontested reign atop Google’s rankings might be coming to an end, because 2016 will be the year the Astros’ Derek Fisher starts to climb his way up the ranks, and cements his status as a future fantasy star. Which makes now your last chance to buy at a good value.

Fisher was drafted by the Astros with the 37th overall pick in 2014. He only slid that far because he was coming off a down senior season, and was demanding a large signing bonus. While he hit only 17 homers in 155 career college games playing OF for the Virginia Cavaliers, the Cavs are known to have an extreme pitchers’ park. The 6’3’’, 207-pound Fisher had all the physical tools to eventually tap into his plus raw power, to go along with his already plus speed, and hitting ability. And that is exactly what happened for Fisher in 2015.

As a 21-year-old outfielder splitting time in Single-A (39 games) and High-A (84 games), Fisher triple-slashed .275/.364/.483, with 22 homers and 31 steals. He reinforced this breakout against tougher competition in the Arizona Fall League, triple-slashing .254/.397/.424, with 2 homers and 3 steals in 17 games. As his OBP numbers reveal, Fisher has a strong command of the strike zone, drawing a walk in 11.6% of his plate appearances last season. He is going to start 2016 in AA and should see AAA by the end of the season, with a 2017 ETA for the majors.

But it is not all rainbows, there are some risks here as well. The power breakout came with an increase in strikeouts, as he struck out 132 times in 123 games. Both the California League (where he did most of his damage last year) and the Arizona Fall League are notorious hitters’ leagues. While the Astros’ home ballpark, Minute Maid Park, favors hitters, there is a decent chance Fisher is traded this season to bolster an already strong Astros team. Underscoring this, it was reported that Fisher was traded to the Philadelphia Phillies earlier this offseason in the Ken Giles deal, before word spread that it was Mark Appel who would be on the move, not Fisher.

These are minor concerns in the inherently uncertain world of baseball prospects. If Fisher can come anywhere close to repeating his 20/30 season in AA/AAA this year, the buy window will be slammed shut. In his prime, Fisher projects to hit about .270, with 20-25 homers and 15-20 steals. He holds even more value in OBP/BB leagues.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com