Posted on by Michael Halpern

New York Yankees Top 5 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

First, it was the “Big Three” (Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy). Then, it was the “Killer B’s” (Dellin Betances, Manny Banuelos, Andrew Brackman). And now … the fans don’t nickname Yankees prospects anymore. But this current group might finally be the one to form the next Yankees core. Luis Severino and Greg Bird both impressed last season, as the first wave of this Yankees youth movement. Both also exhausted their rookie eligibility. Severino will begin the season in the Yankees starting rotation, while Bird is likely to start the season in AAA, waiting his turn behind Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez. Severino and Bird are just the tip of the iceberg, though. Here are the top 5 New York Yankees prospects for 2016:

1) Gary Sanchez C – “I’d like to unleash the Kracken,” Yankees GM Brian Cashman told reporters earlier this offseason, referring to Sanchez. Sanchez absolutely destroyed the Arizona Fall League in 2015, putting up a .982 OPS, and crushing 7 homers in only 22 games. This was coming off a season where he hit 18 homers in 93 games, splitting time between AA (58 games) and AAA (35 games). His defense continued to improve as well, to the point nobody doubts he can stick at catcher anymore. This is a bat-first, power hitting catcher. It doesn’t get much juicier than that.

ETA: 2016
Prime Projection: 67/22/83/.280/4

2) Aaron Judge OF – The 6’7’’, 275-pound Judge is more Judge Dredd, than Judge Judy. There is no question about his raw power. Splitting time between AA (63 games) and AAA (61 games) in 2015, Judge launched 20 homers and stole 7 bases. Strikeouts are a real concern, though, as he struck out 144 times in 124 games. His numbers also tanked when he reached AAA, triple-slashing a measly .224/.308/.373. But the home run upside is too much to ignore, and even if he always struggles to make contact, the power is not going anywhere.

ETA: 2016-17
Prime Projection: 75/26/90/.260/7

3) Jorge Mateo SS – Mateo stole 82 bases in two levels of A-ball last season. He hit only 2 homers, but his 6’0’’, 188-pound frame leaves room for more in the future. With the 25-year-old Didi Gregorius firmly entrenched at SS, and 25-year-old Starlin Castro at 2B, Mateo does not have a clear path to playing time with the Yankees. Although, the Yankees did reportedly offer Mateo in a trade for Craig Kimbrel at the trade deadline last season, so he might be on a different team by the time he is major league ready anyway. Mateo has the upside to be a 5-category stud, but he has yet to play above A-ball, and his power has not shown up yet.

ETA: 2017-18
Prime Projection: 87/9/50/.275/42

4) James Kaprielian RHP – The Yankees drafted Kaprielian with the 16th overall pick in 2015. He is a fast moving, high floor college pitcher. Kaprielian throws a traditional four-pitch mix, sitting in the low to mid 90’s with his fastball. He projects as a mid-rotation starter, with good, but not elite strikeout numbers. Yankee Stadium and the AL East will not do him any favors either. If this write-up makes him seem safe and boring, that is because he is.

ETA: 2016-17
Prime Projection: 3.66/1.27/175 in 195 IP

5) Rob Refsnyder 2B – Refsnyder was prospect blocked last season by Stephen Drew and his .201 batting average. After Drew signed with the Washington Nationals this offseason to prospect block Trea Turner, it seemed like Refsnyder would finally get a real shot to win the second base job. But not so fast, the Yankees went out and traded for Castro. So it is back to AAA for Refsnyder. Refsnyder has an elite K/BB ratio, with average power and speed. All it would take is one injury to Castro, Didi, or Headley, to open up a spot on the major league roster for Refsnyder next season. He is also a prime candidate to be traded to a team with an opening at second base.

ETA: 2016
Prime Projection: 75/15/67/.285/12

Honorable Mentions: Wilkerman Garcia SS, Domingo Acevedo RHP, Ian Clarkin LHP, Brady Lail RHP, Tyler Wade SS

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Matz vs. Severino

There ain’t enough room in this town for the both of ‘em! Well, New York has two baseball teams and ten rotation spots between them, so maybe there is. But they can’t both dominate the back pages of the New York papers! I guess they can on different days. But only one can be the talk of the town! Eh, it is a pretty big “town,” both of them can generate plenty of talk. It is the fan rivalry that really matters though! Mets fans cannot stand the Yankees and Yankees fans cannot sta … well actually, Yankees fans don’t really care about the Mets. Damn it! It should be a lot easier to drum up some drama over this. One last try:

NEW YORK!!! METS’ PHENOM PROSPECT VS. YANKEES’ PITCHING PRODIGY! ONLY ONE CAN PREVAIL!

That will have to do.

Steven Matz: Baseball America ranked Matz the 33rd best prospect in baseball coming into the 2015 season. He went on to dominate Triple-A in the Pacific Coast League, a league notorious for being very tough on pitchers. This earned him a call up to the big leagues, where he put up a miniscule 2.27 ERA, striking out 34 batters in 35.2 innings pitched. A big lefty, with a prototypical pitcher’s build (6’2’’, 200 pounds), Matz’s electric stuff backs up the early results. His 95 MPH fastball is the first thing to jump out at you, but he compliments that with a plus curveball and change-up.

Matz does not come without a few red flags. His injury history being the most concerning. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2010, and didn’t become symptom-free for two years. Don’t believe me? Matz told a reporter earlier this year, “I had the surgery on May 18, 2010. I didn’t become symptom-free for two years.” Because of the injury setbacks, Matz was considered old (as far as top prospects go) at each of his minor league stops, delaying his major league debut until he was 24 years old. The injury bug has already hit Matz in the majors. He missed six weeks with a torn lat muscle towards the end of last year.

Luis Severino: Baseball America ranked Severino the 35th best prospect in baseball coming into the 2015 season. Like Matz, after dominating in the minors to start the year, Severino did not miss a beat once getting called up. He pitched to a 2.89 ERA, striking out 56 batters in 62.1 innings pitched. He also throws a big, 95 MPH fastball, complimented by a plus slider and developing change-up.

Unlike Matz, Severino made his major league debut as a 21-year-old, with a spotless record of health. He also entered a much tougher pitching environment. The AL East scored the most runs in baseball last year, and Yankee Stadium is notoriously tough on right-handed pitchers. Matz pitched in a pitcher’s park (Citi Field), against the weakest hitting division in baseball (NL East), and in a league where the pitcher hits (NL).

Severino is not without his warts either. Listed at 6’0’’, 195 pounds, he is considered undersized to be a major league starter. Compounding this issue, he does not utilize the lower half of his body enough during his delivery. This results in putting excess stress on his arm to generate most of his power, increasing the risk of an arm-related injury. Severino is also more raw than Matz, as his secondary pitches are not as refined and consistent.

Verdict: For fantasy baseball, Matz is the guy you want. The far superior pitching conditions he will face makes that an easy call. In real life, Severino gets the slight edge. His spotless track record of health, compared to Matz’s littered injury history, is too much to ignore. Nothing is more important than a pitcher’s health. For 2016, I will give Matz a projection of 3.49/1.23/156 in 160 IP. I will give Severino the projection of 3.68/1.26/158 in 175 IP. Long term, both project as top-of-the-rotation starters.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com