Posted on by Michael Halpern

Boston Red Sox 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I like to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team, and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Boston Red Sox 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: TOP 76 C//TOP 98 1B
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100+ COMING SOON)
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Baltimore Orioles (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

Pitchers

Kutter Crawford BOS, RHP, 28.0 – I told you guys to put a star next to Justin Steele’s name as you were filling out the middle to back half of your fantasy rotation last off-season, and I’m going to tell you to do the same with Kutter Crawford this off-season. He shares some similarities which made me like Steele last off-season, but they aren’t really direct comps. Crawford’s control jumped to above average levels with a 6.8% BB%, and it allowed his 93.6 MPH fastball (.268 xwOBA with a 26% whiff%) and 88.6 MPH cutter (.295 xwOBA with a 24.2% whiff%) to play as plus pitches. He throws a legit 6 pitch mix with his sweeper, splitter, and slider thriving in limited usage. It all led to a 4.04 ERA (3.25 xERA) with a 25.6% K% in 129.1 IP. The floor is pretty high, and he has some very real upside. I really, really like Kutter as a very reasonably priced target. 2024 Projection: 11/3.73/1.22/159 in 155 IP

Brayan Bello BOS, RHP, 24.10 – The good news is that Bello improved one of his biggest weaknesses, bringing his BB% down 3.4 percentage points to a well above average 6.7%, but the bad news is that basically everything else took a half step back. The velocity dropped 1.3 MPH to 95 MPH, the barrel% rose 1.6 percentage points to 7%, and the whiff% dropped 1.6 percentage points to 24.4%. It resulted in a good, but unexciting fantasy season with a 4.24 ERA and 19.8% K% in 157 IP. The floor is high with his ability to keep the ball on the ground (56.2% GB%), the stuff is still big, and the changeup is still plus with a .219 xwOBA and 38.7% whiff%, but the upside is lacking with the mediocre K rates. He was major buy for me last off-season, and everything I liked him about then, I still like about him now (plus the improved control), so he’s an easy hold for me this off-season. 2024 Projection: 11/3.94/1.28/150 in 165 IP

Chris Sale BOS, LHP, 35.0 – Sale was a bit rusty coming off a completely lost and chaotic 2022 season with a 8.22 ERA in his first 23 IP, but he performed like a true ace after that with a 3.16 ERA and 30.2%/6.0% K%/BB% in 79.2 IP. He can clearly still be an impact fantasy starter, but there are enough indications that what he did in those final 79.2 IP shouldn’t be expected over a full season. He missed over 2 months during that stretch with shoulder inflammation, and while he performed well afterwards, the velocity was spotty and shoulder injuries are scary. He hasn’t thrown a legitimate starter’s workload since 2019 (147.1 IP). And the stuff isn’t quite as good as his prime with his heavily used 4-seamer hitting a career worst .320 xwOBA and 23.4% whiff%. All of those negatives seem to already be factored into his price though with a NFBC ADP of 179, and his advanced age is sure to keep his price down in dynasty too, so he still makes for a very reasonable buy target for a win now team. 2024 Projection: 10/3.57/1.14/170 in 140 IP

Hitters

Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 24.3 – Casas has the potential to become one of the next great all around 1B mashers, and we saw what that could look like in the 2nd half of 2023. He slashed .317/.417/.617 with 15 homers and a 23.4%/14.2% K%/BB% in his final 54 games. He smashes the ball with a 91.1/95.2 MPH AVG/FB EV, he lifts the ball with a 15.7 degree launch, he hit lefties well with a .817 OPS, he has no contact issues, and he’s an OBP beast. His .371 xwOBA was in the top 8% of the league, and that includes his slow start. He also hits in a great ballpark. The 1B position is starting to age a bit with Votto, Goldy, and Freeman all getting up there, and I think Casas has the upside to be in the next generation of greats to take their place. I don’t think he will get quite the respect he deserves this off-season. 2024 Projection: 93/32/94/.273/.375/.520/1

Jarren Duran BOS, OF, 27.7 – Ceddanne Rafaela is pretty clearly Boston’s starting CF of the future, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a path to playing time for Duran both in the short term and long term. Rafaela hasn’t established himself yet, Alex Verdugo is in his final year of team control with trade rumors already swirling around him, Masataka Yoshida looks like he’ll be doing a lot of DH’ing, and the unproven Wilyer Abreu (who I like) is penciled into one of the OF spots. That leaves plenty of avenues for playing time for Duran even if Boston brings in a free agent or two, and he has the type of fantasy profile to go after. His hit tool took a big step forward in 2023 with a 24.9% K% (28.3% in 2022), and it was even better in the 2nd half with a 17.6% K% in his final 142 PA. The contact improvements allowed his double plus speed (29.5 ft/sec sprint with 24 steals in 102 games) and at least above average raw power (89.9 MPH EV with 8 homers and a .295 BA) to shine. He was definitely on the lucky side with a .266 xBA, but luck is the residue of design, and when you hit the ball hard with his kind of speed, good things happen. His season ended in late August with a toe injury that required surgery, but he should be good to go for 2024, and I would use any job/injury uncertainty to your advantage this off-season. 2024 Projection: 78/16/69/.264/.329/.428/29

Bullpen

Kenley Jansen BOS, Closer, 36.6 – Jensen is certainly passed his prime with career worsts in K% (27.7%), EV against (89.9 MPH), xFIP (4.61), and xERA (3.16), but he’s far from washed up. His velocity jumped two ticks to near career highs with a 94.3 MPH cutter, and the slider is still plus with a 37.5% whiff%. The days of him putting up a 1.32 ERA with a 42.2%/2.7% K%/BB% are over, but a low 3’s ERA with a 30%/9%% K%/BB% is still well within reach. 2024 Projection: 4/3.39/1.15/79/34 saves in 62 IP

Boston Red Sox Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Roman Anthony BOS, OF, 19.11 – I ended Anthony’s 2023 Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “There is a lot of refinement needed, but this is a high upside bat who could explode up rankings if everything comes together.” … well, everything came together and Anthony exploded up rankings, slashing .272/.403/.466 with 14 homers, 16 steals, and a 24.2%/17.5% K%/BB% in 106 games at mostly Single-A (109 wRC+) and High-A (164 wRC+). It was a little concerning that the K% jumped to 30.6% at High-A, but then he closed out the season at Double-A and had a 185 wRC+ with a 13.6%/18.2% K%/BB% in 10 games. And he did all this starting the season as an 18 year old. He’s an elite athlete at 6’2”, 200 pounds with a plus power/speed combo, powerful lefty swing, and a mature plate approach. He’s not a completely finished product yet as he’s not great at lifting the ball with an under 25% Flyball%, and he wasn’t a great base stealer with 16 steals in 23 attempts, but he hits the ball so hard he can survive without a huge launch, and he has time to refine his base stealing skills as well, so neither are major concerns. He’s on a short list to be the #1 overall prospect in baseball by this time next year. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 96/25/88/.273/.358/.472/16

2) Marcelo Mayer BOS, SS, 21.4 – Mayer feels like he’s getting a bit of the treatment Noelvi Marte got last year. He was on a beeline for elite prospect status until there was an abrupt, general cooling on him throughout the industry, but like with Marte, I’m not sure it’s warranted. That sweet and vicious lefty swing obliterated the age appropriate High-A, slashing .290/.366/.524 with 7 homers, 5 steals, and a 22.%/10.4% K%/BB% in 35 games. He scuffled when he got to Double-A with a 63 wRC+, but there are multiple reasons to not get scared off by that. He was very young for the level, he was battling though a shoulder injury that eventually ended his season, and a .220 BABIP was really the biggest issue as 6 homers with a 25.8% K% in 43 games isn’t bad at all. He’s not that fast, but he’s a good enough base stealer to nab a handful of bags, and the strikeout rates have been higher than optimal, but the has the type of swing that can hit for both average and power even with a slightly higher strikeout rate. There are also only improvements coming from here. He’s right on track to become one of the better complete hitters in the game, especially hitting in Fenway. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 91/27/93/.272/.351/.484/9

3) Ceddanne Rafaela BOS, OF, 23.6 – Rafaela’s MLB debut was rough with a 74 wRC+, .238 xwOBA and 85.5 MPH EV in 89 PA, which fanned the flames of concern that he is too small (5’8″) to excel at the highest levels, but I’m using it as a buying opportunity. His floor is very high with at least plus CF defense and plus speed (39 steals and a 28.7 ft/sec sprint). He’s always had a good feel to hit (21.9% K% at Triple-A), he hit the ball hard in the upper minors with a 89.1 MPH EV, and he’s never had any groundball issues. He has a poor plate approach with a low BB% (5.5%) and high chase rates, but I don’t think that will hold him back while he’s in his physical prime. Cedric Mullins with a tick worse plate approach is the comp. 2024 Projection: 47/10/38/.245/.302/.401/15 Prime Projection:  87/18/68/.261/.318/.422/31

4) Kyle Teel BOS, C, 22.1 – Selected 14th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Teel is a better real life prospect than fantasy prospect like most prospect catchers. He has a hit over power profile, slashing .407/.475/.655 with 13 homers, 5 steals, and a 36/32 K/BB in 65 ACC games. He backed up that profile in pro ball, slashing .363/.483/.495 with 2 homers, 3 steals, and a 19.3%/18.4% K%/BB% in 26 games split between 3 levels (rookie, High-A, Double-A). He’s a good athlete, so he could nab a few bases which is nice for a catcher, and he immediately becomes Boston’s best catcher prospect, so he could move relatively fast through the system. Fenway is a great hitter’s park too which should help his profile play up. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/16/71/.281/.352/.433/8

5) Blaze Jordan BOS, 3B/1B, 21.3 – Blaze is one of those prospects where every time I fly him up rankings in early rankings drafts, I get cold feet after looking them over a few times because he isn’t a good defensive player, he hits lefties much better than righties, and he’s yet to truly show that prodigious power he was known for as an amateur. But then I move him too far down the rankings, and get FOMO when I think about a 20 year old with big raw power, great contact rates, and great production. He slashed .324/.385/.533 with 12 homers and a 14.6%/8.7% K%/BB% in 73 games at High-A. It was good for a 145 wRC+. He then went to Double-A and hit 6 homers with a 13.8% K% in 49 games. He can look a bit stiff at the plate, but he’s talked about losing weight and working on his body this off-season, which will only help him both offensively and defensively at a very strong 6’2”, 220 pounds. As a pure bat, there is a lot to love, and if he can improve defensively this off-season, it would make prospect rankers feel a lot more comfortable about him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 75/25/84/.269/.332/.465/3

6) Wilyer Abreu BOS, OF, 24.10 – I had a lot of in-season Target article hits this year, ringing the five alarm bell on a bunch of guys right at the first sign of a sprouting breakout and before they were even close to getting the respect they deserved (Nolan Jones and Zack Gelof, among others, were my best calls), but my favorite call was probably the one I made on Wilyer Abreu. Here is what I wrote about Abreu on August 3rd, “ This one is probably more for my deep leaguers out there, but there is something I really love about Abreu that I just can’t shake. And that something is probably his sweet, sweet lefty swing. It’s resulted in 14 homers with a 89.6 MPH EV in 71 games at Triple-A. It also comes with a solid 22.3%/16% K%/BB% and a cannon for an arm in rightfield. I don’t think he is going to be a league winner, but I think he has a chance to be a rock solid MLB player.” … From that point forward, Abreu went absolutely bonkos, hitting 8 homers in just 15 games at Triple-A, and then earning a call up to the majors where he put up a ridiculous 135 wRC+ in 85 PA. It’s almost like I had a crystal ball on that one. He continued to hit the ball hard in the majors with a 91.3 MPH EV, he likes to run with 3 steals (8 steals at AAA), and the plate approach was solid with a 27.1%/10.6% K%/BB%. I still think he’s more of an impact player for medium to deeper leagues rather than shallow leagues, but he more than proved he can be a good big leaguer in the long run. 2024 Projection: 47/14/54/.242/.319/.423/6 Prime Projection: 76/24/82/.257/.338/.453/9

7) Miguel Bleis BOS, OF, 20.1 – Bleis was the anti-Junior Caminero in 2023. Everyone wants to know which prospects can blow up from outside Top 50’s into elite prospect range, and Bleis and Caminero were both popular picks to do that this year. Caminero obviously fulfilled that elite prospect destiny, while Bleis completely imploded in on himself. He struggled hard at Single-A with 1 homer, 11 steals, a 26.8%/7.0% K%/BB%, and 71 wRC+ in 31 games, and then his season ended on May 30th with a shoulder injury that required surgery. The superstar traits are still there with a lightning quick swing, projectable power, and plus speed, but he didn’t seem all that close to putting it together in 2023, and the shoulder injury adds further risk. He’s not an overtly imposing presence at a skinny 6 feet, so he needs to tack on more muscle to reach his power potential, and the plate approach is below average. He can still obviously reach his elite prospect potential, but every year he doesn’t do it, the odds of it happening get a little lower. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection:  75/22/77/.255/.322/.438/24

8) Yordanny Monegro BOS, RHP, 21.5 – Monegro is a projectable 6’4”, 180 pounds with nasty stuff and a starter’s pitch mix. He throws a mid 90’s fastball with good movement, to go along with 2 plus breaking balls that he has full confidence in and will throw in any count, both in and out of the zone. He also mixes in a decent a changeup. He was too much for the lower minors with a 2.06 ERA and 34.6%/9.7% K%/BB% in 65.2 IP at rookie ball, Single-A, and High-A. He doesn’t have pinpoint control, but he’s not majorly wild either. Boston has a bunch of arms with similar value to Monegro, but I like his combination of upside and likelihood of sticking as a starter the most. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/3.93/1.31/160 in 155 IP

9) Nick Yorke BOS, 2B, 22.0 – A 24.1% K% and .268 BA at Double-A isn’t exactly super encouraging for a player who you are mostly buying for the hit tool. There also isn’t a clear path to playing time with Story under contract through 2027, Marcelo Mayer very likely ahead of him on the depth chart, and many others with similar skillsets to Yorke in the organization as well. And to top it all off, he isn’t a particularly good defensive player. But Yorke showed a good enough all around collection of skills/tools to stick with him. He hit 13 homers with 18 steals, a 10.1% BB% and 116 wRC+ in 110 games as a barely 21 year old in the upper minors. The Sox took him 17th overall in 2020, and when a team invests so much into a player, they usually want to give him every opportunity to succeed. His perceived name value is probably greater than his actual value, but he can still be a solid all around contributor at peak. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/18/71/.267/.332/.426/14

10) Wikelman Gonzalez BOS, RHP, 22.0 – There is no doubt that Gonzalez has fire stuff with a nightmare mid to upper 90’s fastball that gets a ton of whiffs to go along with a plus breaking ball and a solid changeup. It led to a 3.96 ERA with a 35.2% K% in 111.1 IP at High-A and Double-A. The problem is that his control is in the major danger zone with a 14.7% BB%. He can survive with below average control, but he needs to improve to even reach below average, so his most likely role will be out of the bullpen. It’s closer type stuff though. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 4/3.45/1.22/81/25 saves in 65 IP

Just Missed

11) Chase Meidroth BOS, 3B/2B, 22.8

12) Brainer Bonaci BOS, SS/2B, 21.9

13) Yoelin Cespedes BOS, SS, 18.7

14) Nazzan Zanetello BOS, SS, 18.10

15) Luis Perales BOS, RHP, 21.0

16) Angel Bastardo BOS, RHP, 21.9

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Jumping off from the Miguel Bleis blurb, every dynasty owner wants that shooting star prospect who “came out of nowhere,” but I would be careful about building your system with 100% of these players. Bleis is the dark side of that strategy, and before you know it, you could have an entire farm system full of nearly worthless prospects who showed glimpses in the DSL or rookie ball a few years ago, while your competition rosters and graduates the Matt McLain’s and Spencer Steer’s of the world. Of course you want a nice percentage of pure young upside, but make you sure you are dipping into other buckets of prospects as well to diversify your risk. And you don’t have to always forgo upside to do it with the Blake Dunn’s of the world available for reasonable prices (I’m not intentionally only naming Cincinnati players, hah).

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Baltimore Orioles (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: TOP 76 C//TOP 98 1B
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100+ COMING SOON)
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Boston Red Sox 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

I’m pumped to be kicking off my off-season 2023 Dynasty Baseball content with Dynasty Team Reports. Just like during the season, I’ll be releasing a free post on most Monday’s throughout the off-season. Here is the Boston Red Sox 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 SEPTEMBER 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 SEPTEMBER 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 10 TRADE NEGOTIATION TACTICS
-2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL PLAYER SUPERLATIVES/AWARDS
-UPCOMING CONTENT: Dynasty Team Reports, Positional Dynasty Rankings, strategy articles, target articles, and early access to the Top 100 FYPD Rankings, Top 500 Prospects Rankings, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings hot off the presses as I put them together (released for free on IBW at some point in March)

*Ages are as of Opening Day 2023
**Prime Projections represent a relatively good outcome scenario that is meant to shine more light on the type of numbers I think a prospect projects for. It is not necessarily a most likely outcome.

Starting Pitchers

Brayan Bello BOS, RHP, 23.11 – Bello is one of my top pitching targets for 2023. He checks a whole hell of a lot of boxes. He throws gas (96.3 MPH sinker), his changeup is a filthy out pitch (44.2% whiff% and .214 xSLG against), he keeps the ball on the ground (5.3 degree launch), and he induces weak contact (5.4% barrel%). His control isn’t great, but it isn’t really a major area of concern. Improving his slider would take him to another level, but his slider isn’t all that bad as is with an above average .288 xwOBA against. His 4.71 ERA (3.80 xERA) in 57.1 IP, and his relative lack of hype as a prospect is going to have him going for an extremely reasonable price this off-season. I’m all in on Bello. I would be all over him no matter where your team is in the contention cycle. 2023 Projection: 10/3.79/1.27/180 in 172 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.43/1.18/214 in 190 IP

Chris Sale BOS, LHP, 34.0 – This video of Chris Sale going full meltdown mode and destroying the Triple-A locker room while on a rehab assignment is the perfect representation of his 2022 season. He pitched only 5.2 innings all year as he battled a stress fracture in his ribs early on, and then a broken pinky almost immediately after returning from the rib injury, and then finally a broken wrist from a bike accident finished off his season. None of the injuries seem to be long term concerns, and his fastball did average 94.9 MPH in those 5.2 innings, which is actually nice to see even if it is a very small sample. He has the reputation as a strikeout machine, but he’s also put up near elite walk rates since 2012 which gives him a safe floor even if the strikeouts take a step back. If you’re a competing team who doesn’t have the assets to go after an established ace this off-season, Sale is a good “Plan B” option. 2023 Projection: 10/3.59/1.17/181 in 150 IP

Hitters

Xander Bogaerts BOS, SS, 30.6 – Bogaerts started his career as a boring fantasy player, and now it looks like the back 9 of his career will end up pretty similar. He’s a line drive hitter with above average contact rates and average exit velocities. He’ll chip in with some steals, but he’s never been a huge base stealer, and I don’t think the new rules (bigger bases and max of 2 pick off attempts) are going to favor an aging player like Bogaerts who likes to pick his spots. In fact, it might actually hurt his value because I think younger, more reckless base runners will ultimately get the biggest bump. His name value is still very strong, likely bumping up his value much higher than players who can put up similar numbers and go much later. He can also opt out of his contract this off-season, and if he leaves Boston’s hitter haven, it will very likely hurt his value. He’s a sell for me. 2023 Projection: 88/20/76/.290/.364/.469/13

Trevor Story BOS, 2B, 30.5 – Just when we started to relax and let our hair down when it came to Colorado hitters leaving Coors, Story comes along and smacks us right back to reality. His K% spiked 7.4 percentage points to 30.8% and it led to a career worst .238 BA (.221 xBA). We knew the batting average was coming down, but this was close to a worst case scenario on how far down. The power/speed combo was still good with 16 homers and 13 steals in 94 games battling through a few injuries, so he’s still an exciting fantasy player, but you now have to factor in that it could come with a batting average that tanks you in that category. 2023 Projection: 77/26/89/.241/.316/.480/19

Bullpen

Garrett Whitlock BOS, RHP, 26.10 – Whitlock once again heads into the off-season in role purgatory. He’ll be brought to camp prepared to be a starter, but he can easily end up back in the bullpen. Along with role uncertainty, he also underwent arthroscopic hip surgery in late September, and while he’s expected to be ready go for the start of the season, it adds another layer of unknowns. What isn’t unknown, is that Whitlock is a damn good pitcher as he backed up the 2021 breakout with another very good year in 2022. He put up a 3.17 xERA (3.45 ERA) with a 29.4% whiff% and 4.8% BB%. In leagues with a holds category, there could be a buying opportunity on Whitlock this off-season, but in a 5×5 saves league, there are too many unknowns for me to really target him. 2023 Projection: 6/3.35/1.11/115/15 saves in 105 IP

Boston Red Sox Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 23.3 – Casas is an OBP machine. He has a career .374 OBP in 284 minor league games and then he put up a .358 OBP with a 20% BB% in his 95 PA MLB debut. In an OBP league, he has a chance to be a real difference maker. It’s not so cut and dry in a 5×5 BA league. He’s never hit for high BA’s in the minors (career .269 BA) and he hit .197 (.193 xBA) in the majors. He’s a huge man with huge raw power, but he’s never really put up monster home run totals (11 homers in 72 Triple-A games). He doesn’t sell out for power. Boston’s hitter’s park should juice up all of his numbers, and I like Casas a lot regardless of league type, but I might curb your enthusiasm a little bit in a 5×5 BA. 2023 Projection: 78/24/81/.249/.334/.462/1 Prime Projection: 89/29/94/.263/.368/.510/2

2) Marcelo Mayer BOS, SS, 20.4 – One look at Mayer’s controlled and explosive lefty swing really says it all. He used that swing to dominate Single-A in every facet of the game (150 wRC+ in 66 games), and then mostly did the same to close out the season at High-A (127 wRC+ in 25 games). His 25.2% K% is maybe slightly higher than you would like to see, but he mitigated that with a 16% BB%, and he was also a perfect 17 for 17 on the bases. He’s not a burner, but with the new stolen bases rules coming to the majors, maybe he’ll be able to nab more than we are expecting. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 94/25/87/.271/.363/.484/10

3) Ceddanne Rafaela BOS, OF, 22.0 – Rafaela is a small (5’8”), electric player who seems to be taking a page out of another small electric player’s playbook, Mookie Betts. Both of their swings start upright before bending into hitting position and exploding on the baseball. Boston obviously has a plan on developing these smaller ballplayers. Rafaela isn’t as good as Betts, but he had an eye opening season, slashing .299/.342/.539 with 21 homers, 28 steals, and a 113/26 K/BB split between High-A (156 wRC+ in 45 games) and Double-A (119 wRC+ in 71 games). He’s a plus defensive centerfielder which should help keep him on the field and mitigates the risk of his low walk rate (5% BB%). Take a star away in OBP leagues, but he could be a 5×5 BA beast in the mold of Cedric Mullins. 2023 Projection: 7/1/4/.245/.293/.390/2 Prime Projection: 84/17/68/.261/.314/.423/22

4) Miguel Bleis BOS, OF, 19.1 – Bleis is a scout’s dream. He’s a long and lean 6’3”, 170 pounds with a quick and athletic swing. The high priced international signing played well in 2021 in the DSL, but he really exploded this year at stateside rookie ball, slashing .301/.353/.543 with 5 homers, 18 steals, and a 26.9%/6.9% K%/BB% in 40 games. He’s not a finished product as evidenced by his plate approach numbers, but if you’re looking for the type who could be an elite prospect very quickly into 2023, Bleis is your guy. ETA: 2025/26 Prime Projection: 75/22/80/.252/.317/465/14

5) Blaze Jordan BOS, 3B/1B, 20.4 – Blaze clearly came into 2022 with a plan to not just be an all or nothing slugger, and he accomplished that plan with a 16.1%/8.9% K%/BB% in 95 games at Single-A. It came with a low FB% and only 8 homers, but he’s been known for his prodigious power for years now so it’s more important for his development to establish his hit tool. He then closed out the season at High-A where he put up a 128 wRC+ with 4 homers in 25 games. The bat is legit. The issue is on the other side of the ball as Blaze played a lot of 1B this year. He’s not a lock to move off 3B, but it’s clearly a possibility, and that puts all of the pressure on his bat to hit it’s ceiling. ETA: 2024/25 Prime Projection: 77/27/86/.260/.324/.486/3

6) Nick Yorke BOS, 2B, 21.0 – Yorke had a worst case scenario 2022. He hit .231 with 11 homers, 8 steals, and a 25.2% K% in 80 games at High-A. He battled through injuries which definitely contributed to how bad it was, but the power/speed combo isn’t very big, which puts a lot of pressure on his hit tool. He struck out 22.9% of the time at High-A last year too. He’s off to a hot start in the AFL (.368 BA with a 3/5 K/BB in 5 games), and I definitely think he will have a much better 2023, but he lacks high end upside which prevents me from going any higher on him than this. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 83/18/70/.276/.338/.435/10

7) Bryan Mata BOS, RHP, 23.11 – Mata returned from Tommy John surgery in June and quickly established the nasty stuff is fully back with him regularly sitting in the upper 90’s with his 4-seamer. He combines that with a diverse pitch mix that features a potentially plus slider, a nasty 2 seamer, a curve, and a change. He touched every level of the minors this year other than rookie ball and racked up K’s at every level with 105 strikeouts in 83 IP which led to a 2.49 ERA. The problem is that he has major control issues, putting up a 14.7% BB% in 23.1 IP at Triple-A. It’s a high risk, high reward profile with major bullpen risk, but with Boston’s unsettled bullpen, he could end up a dominant closer in short order. 2023 Projection: 3/4.10/1.34/71/4 saves in 65 IP Prime Projection: 5/3.28/1.18/85/28 saves in 70 IP

8) Emmanuel Valdez BOS, 2B/3B, 24.3 – Valdez is not a big man at 5’9”, 191 pounds, but he puts up big man power numbers with 26 homers in 91 games split between High-A and Double-A in 2021, which he followed up with 28 homers in 126 games split between Double-A and Triple-A in 2022. He’s not a big base stealer, his hit tool is solid but not standout, and he’s not great on defense, so a lot is riding on that power from a small frame. 2023 Projection: 54/13/51/.243/.319/.427/4 Prime Projection: 76/22/74/.253/.335/.452/7

9) Matthew Lugo BOS, 3B/SS, 21.11 – Lugo’s power exploded in 2022, going from 4 homers in 105 games at Single-A in 2021 to 18 homers in 114 games at High-A in 2022. He did so without his hit tool or speed taking a step back, maintaining a strong .288 BA and 19.5% K% along with 20 steals. He might not have a standout tool, but he’s shaping up to be a solid across the board contributor. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/22/78/.265/.330/.445/11

10) Brandon Walter BOS, LHP, 26.7 – Walter was shutdown in early June with a neck strain. If not for the injury, he very likely would have ended up higher on the list. He obliterated Double-A with a 2.88 ERA and 34.7%/1.5% K%/BB% in 57.2 IP. He got roughed up a bit in his 2 start Triple-A cup of coffee with a 8.22 ERA and 7/4 K/BB in 7.2 IP before going down with the injury, so he was never given the opportunity to right the ship there. He’s old for a prospect, but you can’t fake good stuff, and Walter’s stuff is on point. He uses a funky, herky jerky lefty delivery to fire a low to mid 90’s fastball, plus slider, and above average changeup. Toss in plus control and it adds up to a relatively safe profile with some upside evidenced by the high K rate. #4 starter seems like a fair, relatively good outcome scenario. 2023 Projection: 3/4.36/1.29/50 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.95/1.24/166 in 160 IP

Just Missed

11) Niko Kavadas BOS, 1B, 24.5 – The lefty Kavadas wrecked the lower level of the minors with 24 homers in 96 games split between Single-A and High-A, but his swing and miss issues caught up with him when he got to Double-A, putting up a 40% K% with only 2 homers in 24 games. For an older player, that isn’t a great sign. He’s also a 1B only guy, which causes another road block to playing time. He’s a walk machine and the power is legit, so I could see him chiseling out some kind of platoon role on the MLB level a la Dan Vogelbach. 2023 Projection: 9/3/12/.219/.305/.410/0  Prime Projection: 48/18/57/.232/.328/.430/1

12) Alex Binelas BOS, 3B/1B, 22.10 – The lefty Binelas wants to hit the ball hard. Check out this excellent interview by David Laurila over on Fangraphs about how much emphasis he puts on exit velocity. It certainly shows as Binelas jacked 25 homers in 113 games split between High-A and Double-A. Like Kavadas, the problem is that his hit tool fell apart when he got to Double-A with a .166 BA and 32.4% K% in 55 games, and he also doesn’t have much defensive value. Part time power bat might be the most likely outcome. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 43/16/51/.238/.323/.430/2

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Restricting trades after the season ends for any period of time doesn’t make sense to me. A large portion of the fun of playing in a dynasty league is that it is a year round thing. I love taking stock of my team directly after the season ends, thinking about my keepers and what my lineup will look like next year, seeing the holes I need to fill and the areas I’m weak in. If your team wasn’t in competition, you might not have had that much to do since the trade deadline passed in August, and you’re ripping and raring to go when the trade ban is lifted. Waiting months before I can start wheeling and dealing just seems unnecessary. Please lift that trade embargo, Mr. Commissioner. No taxation without representation. Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall. Ask not what your country can do … my bad, got carried away there 🙂

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 SEPTEMBER 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 SEPTEMBER 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 10 TRADE NEGOTIATION TACTICS
-2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL PLAYER SUPERLATIVES/AWARDS
-UPCOMING CONTENT: Dynasty Team Reports, Positional Dynasty Rankings, strategy articles, target articles, and early access to the Top 100 FYPD Rankings, Top 500 Prospects Rankings, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings hot off the presses as I put them together (released for free on IBW at some point in March)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (8/15/22)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (8/15/22):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT, INCLUDING:
-TOP 350 AUGUST 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 437 JULY 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 10 TRADE NEGOTIATION TACTICS (one of my favorite things I’ve ever written)
-TOP 10 MID-SEASON TRADE TARGETS
-MID-SEASON OBP TOP 447 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS 
-MID-SEASON POINTS/6+CATS/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 430 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 40 2023 FYPD RANKINGS

Fernando Tatis Jr. SD, SS, 23.7 – Is Tatis an irredeemable fuck up who you should sell immediately in dynasty? Or is he an immature 23 year old kid making bad decisions with the expectations of the world on his shoulders? I like to think I’m a good judge of character, and to me this is a clear case of the latter, which is why I would buy everywhere I could. It’s like when my mom busted me for smoking weed in my room in high school at 1 a.m. in the morning while watching Late Night with Conan O’Brien. No ma, that’s not weed you smell, I’m just super gassy from that Claritin D you gave me! I swear it! Deny, deny, deny. And look at me now, I turned out fine, quitting a career in law to become a fantasy baseball writer. My parents couldn’t be prouder!

Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 18.5/Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS, 21.0 – My #2 and #3 ranked prospects on my Top 350 August 2022 Dynasty Prospects Rankings both had huge days at the dish. Chourio went 4 for 4 with a homer that absolutely exploded off his bat. Henderson went 3 for 6 with a homer that he crushed so hard I think it landed in the forest behind the ballpark. I could make a strong argument for both of these guys to be the top prospect in the game and are players you really shouldn’t be using in win now deals. These are the type of core offensive pieces who make you a contender for several years. I’m all for win now mode and living in the present, but the word “untouchable” was made for prospects like this.

Vinnie Pasquantino KCR, 1B, 24.7 – 3 for 4 with a homer. Here’s what I wrote about Vinnie in my July Top 437 Dynasty Baseball Rankings, ranking him 109th overall, “.387 xwOBA vs. .293 wOBA. He’s a major buy.” In one of the easiest calls ever, Vinnie got hot since then with 4 homers in his last 6 games.

Michael Harris ATL, OF, 21.4 – 2 for 4 with a double and 111.2 MPH dinger. He’s now rocking a .293 BA with 12 homers and 13 steals in 69 games. Harris is undisputedly a Top 50-ish dynasty asset, the only question is how much higher to go on him. A 30% whiff%, 3.8% BB%, and 4.6 degree launch angle are legitimate concerns, and if he cools off down the stretch you can look at those numbers and say it was inevitable to happen. On the other hand, he’s only 21 years old and skipped right over Triple-A, so it would be insane to expect him to already be a finished product.

Vaughn Grissom ATL, SS, 21.7 – 2 for 3 with a 0/2 K/BB. Calling up a 21 year old straight from Double-A worked once already for Atlanta, and they rolled the dice again with Grissom and it just keeps coming up sevens. He has a 1.228 OPS in 5 games. He already rose all the way up to 33rd overall in my July rankings, and he checked in at #20 on the Updated August Top 350 Prospects Rankings.

Brandon Pfaadt ARI, RHP, 23.9 – 6 IP, 1 hit, 1 ER, 10/2 K/BB at Triple-A. The fastball averaged 93.7 MPH, he threw 6 pitches, and he put up a 49% whiff% led by his fastball, slider and change. Pfaadt is a guy who has just kept growing on me, and I think he is one of the more underrated prospects in the minors. He might not have ace upside, but I do think he has potential to end up in that sneaky 2/3 range and could probably be had for a pretty reasonable price at this point. He checked in at #82 on the Updated Prospects Rankings.

Dustin May LAD, RHP, 24.9 – 5 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 10/1 K/BB at Triple-A. The fastball averaged 97 MPH, he threw 5 pitches, and the curve put up a 3297 spin rate. May was breaking out to such an extreme level before going down with Tommy John surgery that I just couldn’t budge his ranking very much. I already had him up to #73 on the July Dynasty Rankings, and now with both the stuff and control back, he very well could be pushed into the top 50 on next week’s Updated Rankings.

Emerson Hancock SEA, RHP, 23.1 – 7 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 5/1 K/BB at Double-A. Hancock is a classic case of eye test vs. results. He gets an A+ on the eye test. If you love the art of pitching and watching a guy who commands the mound, you will love Hancock. On the other hand, a 22.6%/7.4% K%/BB% with a 5.28 xFIP (2.19 ERA) is less impressive. “Art of pitching” your way through Double-A is much different than doing it in the majors. He’s a top 100 prospect for me, but if he ends up a back end starter it will look pretty obvious in hindsight.

Zach Neto LAA, SS, 21.6 – Neto looked so impressive in his 7 game pro debut at High-A that he was sent up to Double-A already, and he lifted off for his first homer at the level on a 2 for 4 with 0 K day. He’s now 10 for 23 in 5 games there. The only slight quibble with Neto was that he didn’t play in the strongest conference in college (Big South), but with him ripping up the upper levels of the minors that is really irrelevant now. He already climbed to #6 on my First Year Player Draft Rankings, and the arrow continues to point up.

Brooks Lee MIN, SS, 21.5 – My previous 6th ranked prospect, Lee, isn’t having too shabby of a pro debut himself, showing off the plus hit tool on a 4 for 5 day at High-A. He’s hitting .364 in 8 games split between rookie ball and High-A and is one of the safer bats in this year’s class.

Alexander Canario CHC, OF, 22.4 – It’s impossible to watch Canario jack a homer and not get excited. Here he is smoking his 21st homer in 75 games at Double-A. Go ahead, I dare you to not get excited.

Yanquiel Fernandez COL, OF, 19.7 – 2 for 5 with a double and homer at Single-A. Fernandez is quietly having a very exciting season for a 19 year old at Single-A with 16 homers and a 21.6%/8.4% K%/BB% in 93 games. He’s been red hot in August with a 1.092 OPS in 12 games. He’s 6’2” with some projection left on his frame and he has a vicious lefty swing. He’s severely underrated.

Endy Rodriguez PIT, C, 22.3 – Endy has been a man possessed for a few months now, and he took the show to Double-A last week and is showing no let up, ripping his 2nd homer in 5 games to go along with a 1.093 OPS. He might be passing Henry Davis as Pitt’s presumed catcher of the future, although there are plenty of at bats to go around for both of them with their depleted roster. This is just the beginning for Endy. He should really change his name to Beginy.

Bobby Miller LAD, RHP, 23.4 – Nobody looks as good as Miller when he’s on, and he was on yesterday, going 7.1 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER, and a 9/2 K/BB at Double-A. The fastball gets into the upper 90’s and the secondaries are nasty. Here is a cut of all of his K’s from last night.

Blake Snell SD, LHP, 29.7 – 6 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 10/0 K/BB vs. WAS. I almost didn’t include Snell in the Rundown because Washington’s lineup is Triple-A quality, but he’s been ripping it up for awhile now with a 2.08 ERA and 67/17 K/BB in his last 43.1 IP. Here is how I closed the Snell blurb in my off-season Top 1,000 Ranking, “Robbie Ray is a good reminder to never give up on strikeout machines with control problems.”

Brady Singer KC, RHP, 26.0 – 6 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 7/3 K/BB vs. LAD. A start like this versus the Dodgers really cements Singer’s come up. He’s done it on the back of improved control with a career best 6% BB%. The 3.83 xERA is still worse than the 3.29 ERA, and the 25% whiff% is only slightly above average, so I don’t think he is a world beater, but he’s clearly taken a step forward.

Emmet Sheehan LAD, RHP, 22.1 – 6 IP, 4 hits, 0 ER, 6/0 K/BB at High-A. It seems like the Dodgers just grow these guys on trees. Sheehan pumps mid to upper 90’s heat with a starter’s 4 pitch mix (change could be his best secondary). He has a 2.80 ERA with a 36.1%/11.5% K%/BB% in 54.2 IP. Control has been an issue for him his entire career, so he may end up in a multi inning pen role especially considering the Dodgers never ending depth, but the upside is legit.

Carson Williams TBR, SS, 19.1 – Williams smacked one down the opposite field line for his 15th homer in 92 games at Single-A. Even better, he didn’t strikeout once. The 32.6% K% is worrisome, and he’s only hitting .210 in his last 59 games since getting off to a hot start, but his upside is worth taking on the extra risk.

Nick Yorke BOS, 2B, 20.4 – Yorke is finally heating up with his 3rd homer in his last 8 games at High-A. The season has been a struggle overall with a 23.5% K% and 78 wRC+ in 62 games. The hit tool just hasn’t been elite enough considering his modest power/speed combo to really keeping ranking Yorke extremely high. I still like him a lot, and he was banged up this year, but I’ve started to lower him in my rankings.

Oscar Colas CHW, OF, 23.9 – Colas continues to be out his mind at Double-A, going 3 for 5 with a dinger yesterday. He’s slashing .353/.439/.694 with 9 homers and a 23.5%/9.2% K%/BB% in 22 games at the level. He moved into my Top 50.

Jose Rodriguez CHW, SS, 21.1 – Rodriguez has gotten a bit forgotten about after a slow start, but he’s been heating up for awhile now. He went 2 for 5 with a double and homer yesterday at Double-A. In his last 39 games he’s slashing .317/.395/.549 with 7 homers, 20 steals, and a 25/20 K/BB. There’s probably still time to jump on the bandwagon as the hype hasn’t caught back up.

Edgar Quero LAA, C, 19.4 – Quero demolished his 14th homer in 90 games at Single-A, and while the video is poor quality, you can see the fielders barely move and the announcer claimed the ball landed on “E Street.” He’s put up over a 1.000 OPS in June, July, and August. He’s quickly becoming one of the most exciting teenage catcher prospects in the game.

Jake McCarthy ARI, OF, 25.1 – 1 for 3 with a walk and 2 steals. I’ve always liked McCarthy as one of my favorites in the fringy close to the majors bucket, and he’s showing why with 3 homers, 9 steals, and a .261 BA in 57 MLB games. He’s lightning fast with a 30 ft/sec spring speed (Top 1% of the league), he’s hitting the ball respectably hard with a 88.1 MPH EV, and he’s making contact with a 23.7% K%. I still have him in that “fringe MLB guy” bucket, but his fantasy friendly skillset makes him a no brainer stash if you have the room.

Gavin Cross KC, OF, 21.5 – Cross cracked his first homer in full season ball at Single-A. I have him ranked 13th on the FYPD rankings, and the reason I couldn’t go higher on him is because the hit tool wasn’t quite as good as the hitters ranked above him. That is playing out in the early going with a 27.8%/5.6% K%/BB% in 4 games at the level. Clearly way too small of a sample to draw any conclusions, but it means his value holds steady for me for now.

Dalton Rushing LAD, C/1B, 21.6 – If you’re looking for an early 2022 Draft pro debut breakout, Rushing could be your guy. He cracked his 2nd homer in 8 games at Single-A and it comes with a 7/8 K/BB and 1.372 OPS. He was drafted 40th overall to one of the best organizations in the game on the back of 23 homers in 64 games in the ACC. He’s quickly rising up my ranks.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT, INCLUDING:
-TOP 350 AUGUST 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 437 JULY 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 10 TRADE NEGOTIATION TACTICS (one of my favorite things I’ve ever written)
-TOP 10 MID-SEASON TRADE TARGETS
-MID-SEASON OBP TOP 447 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS 
-MID-SEASON POINTS/6+CATS/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 430 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 40 2023 FYPD RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/9/22)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/9/22):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED APRIL 2022 TOP 414 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED MAY 2022 TOP 316 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

George Kirby SEA, RHP, 24.2 – Kirby made his MLB debut and went 6 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER and a 7/0 K/BB vs. Tampa. The 4-seamer dominated, sitting 95.8 MPH with a 48% whiff% on the pitch. He had just climbed to #8 overall on my Updated Top 316 Prospects Rankings over on my Patreon, writing, “He could take Brash’s spot in the rotation shortly.” Granted, you didn’t have to be Prospectdamus to see that one coming.

Royce Lewis MIN, SS, 22.10 – Lewis followed in Kirby’s footsteps, rising to #7 on the Updated Prospects List and then getting the call shortly after that. He’s 3 for 10 with a double and K in his 3 game debut, and the underlying numbers are impressive with a 91.8 MPH EV, 22.1 degree launch, and an 11.1% whiff%. He might not stay up with Correa’s injury not as bad as originally feared, but Lewis is trending towards being a fantasy star.

Manuel Margot TBR, OF, 27.6 – I’ve had Margot in the late career breakout bucket for awhile now, seeing a similar career path to Lorenzo Cain, and it might finally be happening as Margot ripped his third homer of the year to bring his season wRC+ up to 170 in 24 games. He has a career high 91.4 MPH EV, 17.3 degree launch angle, and 19.7% whiff%.

 Juan Yepez STL, 1B/3B/OF, 24.0 – Yepez smashed his first MLB homer on a 406 foot shot to the deepest part of the ballpark. He is starting his MLB career on a 5 game hit streak, and 4 of those games were multi hit games. He’s not guaranteed a full time job, but as long as he keeps hitting, they will find a way to get his bat in the lineup.

Owen Miller CLE, 1B/2B, 25.6 – Miller stays hot with his 3rd homer in 22 games. He’s handily outperforming his underlying numbers (.445 wOBA vs. .368 xwOBA), so while I think he can be a solid bat long term, I don’t think he is going to maintain anything close to this level. I would consider him a sell high candidate.

Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 21.7 – Carroll has been going bonkos all season, and he’s now going doubly bonkos with his 2nd straight 2 homer game. That’s 4 homers in his last 2 games for 9 homers on the season. Tack on 8 steals and a .326 BA and he is in the conversation for the top prospect in baseball. He checked in at #5 on my Updated Top 316 Prospects Rankings.

Zack Gelof OAK, 3B, 22.5 – Gelof lifted off twice as well for his 3rd and 4th homers in 25 games at Double-A, and both were hit the opposite way. A fan in a cartoonishly sized cowboy hat had the first homer all lined up but he botched the play. Gelof has a 123 wRC+ at the level, but a 27.6%/6.5% is a little worrisome when trying to project his production out on the MLB level.

Austin Martin MIN, OF, 23.0 – It took long enough but Martin finally got on the board, pulling a breaking ball that never really broke for his 1st homer of the year. 13.7%/12.8% K%/BB% with 14 steals in 25 games at Double-A looks great, but he’s just not doing enough damage on contact with a .337 SLG.

 Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 19.8 – Lawlar continues to separate himself from the 2021 high school SS class, going 2 for 5 with a double, homer, and 0 K’s. He’s now slashing .301/.443/.542 with 6 homers, 15 steals, and a 25.5%/16% K%/BB% in 23 games at Single-A.

Taj Bradley TBR, RHP, 21.0 – 5 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 5/0 K/BB at Double-A. Plus control of his mid 90’s fastball is his bread and butter, and the secondaries have been more refined this year. He rose to #53 overall on the Updated Prospects Rankings, one spot ahead of one of my favorite prospects, Brayan Bello.

Mick Abel PHI, RHP, 20.7 – 4 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 6/5 K/BB at High-A. Seeing all the walks coming back is not great, but it’s still been much improved overall with a 10.4% BB% in 18 IP. The stuff is filthy and he’s been a K machine with a 37.7% K%. After the top arms in the upper levels graduate, Abel should rise into elite pitching prospect territory.

Edward Cabrera MIA, RHP, 23.11 – Max Meyer is making everyone forget about Cabrera, but he did his best to make as all remember yesterday, going 5 IP with 3 hits, 0 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB. He’s still struggling with his control on the season though with a 15/8 K/BB in 13 IP. Meyer should be the next man up in Miami, but it’s not out the realm they go back to Cabrera first.

Edwin Arroyo SEA, SS, 18.7 – 2 for 5 with his 5th homer in 24 games at Single-A. He now has a 149 wRC+ with 6 steals and a 18.6%/10.6% K%/BB%. Arroyo has been out of his mind recently and is one of the top breakouts in the first month of the season. He climbed to #167 on the Updated Top 316 Prospects Rankings, and even that might not be enough.

Carson Williams TBR, SS, 18.9 – Williams is another 18 year old breaking out in full season ball, jacking his 3rd homer in 21 games and is now slashing .301/.372/.578 with 3 homers, and 7 steals. The 37.2% K% is quite high, but he’s only 18, and his swing is so damn explosive at 6’2”, 180 pounds it’s hard not to get excited.

Roberto Campos DET, OF, 18.10 – Campos crushed his first homer of the year in 25 games at Single-A, but he’s been hitting the ball really hard all year and his power isn’t in question. More importantly, the K rate has been strong with a 22.4%/7.1% K%/BB% and has been solid all year with a 108 wRC+. Now is probably the time to buy in if he’s still out there.

 Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 18.1 – The 18 year old Chourio made his season debut at Single-A last week and he’s done nothing but hit since then. He cranked his first homer yesterday and is now slashing .480/.519/.800 with 1 homer, 2 steals, and a 14.8%/7.4% K%/BB% in 6 games. I’ve ranked Chourio pretty aggressively, and the hype is about to blow up if he keeps this up. Elite prospect potential.

Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 22.2 – Make it #6 for Casas at Triple-A. I imagine that when Bobbly Dalbec looks in the mirror to brush to his teeth in the morning, he sees Casas right behind him like it’s a hacky horror movie.

Nick Yorke BOS, 2B, 20.0 – Yorke’s been finding his power stroke of late, drilling his first 2 homers of the year in his last 5 games. This one was a no doubter out to deep centerfield, showing he definitely has some raw juice in the tank. He has a 21.3% K% with a .238 BA, so the hit tool hasn’t exactly been as elite as hoped.

 Justin Foscue TEX, 2B/3B, 23.1 – Foscue has been quietly putting in work at Double-A, going 2 for 3 with a homer and 2 walks. He has a 15.9%/14.5% K%/BB% with a 145 wRC+ in 16 games at Double-A. He’s joining Josh Jung as two rock solid college bats who should produce in Texas for years to come.

Brendon Davis LAA, 3B/OF, 24.8 – 2 for 5 with his 5th homer. The surface stats haven’t been great with an 88 wRC+, but the underlying numbers look excellent with a 17.9%/12.2% K%/BB% and a 37.6% GB% in 28 games at Triple-A. He has big power at 6’4”, 185 pounds, and seeing the K rate being kept in check is big.

Blaze Alexander ARI, SS, 22.11 – Alexander is bouncing back from a down 2021, walloping 2 homers yesterday and is now slashing .322/.403/.644 with 4 homers and 3 steals in 15 games. 31.3% K% is still too high, but he’s putting himself back on the map.

Ken Waldichuk NYY, LHP, 24.3 – Waldichuk had the best start of the day, going 5 hitless innings with a 12/3 K/BB. He’s a 24 year old “crafty lefty” dominating younger competition at Double-A with a 1.14 ERA and 40/9 K/BB in 23.2 IP. I wouldn’t go crazy for him, but the guy obviously knows how to pitch.

Hayden Wesneski NYY, RHP, 24.4 – Wesneski is the 24 year old Yankees pitching prospect I prefer, and he pitched damn well himself, going 5 IP with 4 hits, 2 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB at Triple-A. He does have the big stuff and is now sitting on a 2.48 ERA with a 32/6/ K/BB in 29 IP.

Michael Burrows PIT, RHP, 22.5 – One of the most underrated pitchers in the minors continued his dominance, going 4 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB. The stuff is straight filthy and he’s rocking a 34%/6.8% K%/BB% in 26.2 IP at Double-A. He’s a must pick up in every league.

Jacob Amaya LAD, SS, 23.8 – The Amaya breakout continues, going 3 for 5 with a triple, homer, and a 1/3 K/BB in a doubleheader. Simply calling it a breakout might be an understatement because the the numbers are straight elite, slashing .351/.473/.797 with 7 homers (27.9% GB%), 2 steals, and a 13.2%/18.7% K%/BB% in 22 games at Double-A. He cracked the Updated Prospects Rankings at #200, and he just keeps on rising.

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Boston Red Sox 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys and talk some team specific strategy for every team to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Boston Red Sox 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
–A Top 200 Sneak Peek of the 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Top 250 is dropping tomorrow)
-Dynasty Team Reports for every team (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)
–Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Top 56 C/Top 78 1B/Top 87 2B/Top 88 3B/Top 122 SS up now)
-End of Season 2021 Top 466 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
-End of Season 2021 Top 322 Dynasty Prospects Rankings

*A Top 250 Sneak Peek of the 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings coming tomorrow

Starting Pitchers

Chris Sale BOS, LHP, 33.0 – Sale returned in mid August from Tommy John surgery and looked about, I would say, like 85% of himself. He had a pitching line of 3.16/1.34/52/12 in 42.2 IP. He had a 4 year low 28.4% K% and a 10 year worst 6.6% BB%. His changeup was particularly ineffective with a .667 slugging against and a 23.8% whiff% (33% whiff% in 2019). His fastball sat 93.6 MPH, which is on the low side, but not out of character for his career, and it averaged 95.1 MPH against Houston in his 5.1 inning playoff start against them. If you want to look at it glass a half full, he should come back fully healthy after a normal off-season. Glass half empty take is that this could be his new, still very good skill level as he enters his mid 30’s. 2022 Projection: 11/3.42/1.15/197 in 160 IP

Tanner Houck BOS, RHP, 25.9 – Houck thrived in relatively short outings, putting up a 3.52 ERA with a 30.5%/7.4% K%/BB% in 69 IP. He averaged 3.8 IP per outing and never went more than 5.1 IP.  His fastball exploded to 94.5 MPH and his slider was truly elite with a .194 xwOBA. He might not rack up innings, but he’s proven his fastball/slider combo can do real damage in the majors. He’s a great target who is still not getting enough hype. He ranked #162 on my Top 200 Sneak Peek of the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings over on Patreon. 2022 Projection: 10/3.75/1.25/166 in 145 IP

Nick Pivetta BOS, RHP, 29.2 – Everybody’s favorite sleeper in 2019 put himself back on the map in 2021 with a pitching line of 4.53/1.30/175/65 in 155 IP. He had a 3.84 xERA, but he’s underperformed his xStats basically every year of his career because of how homer prone he is, so it’s hard to buy into that being his “true” talent level. He had an above average 26.5% K%, but his whiff% was an average 24.6% and none of his pitches standout as elite K pitches with his slider and curve putting up a 26.4% and 31.1% whiff%, respectively. He’s also in a very challenging pitching environment at Fenway in the AL East. He did enough to 2021 to be an interesting back end rotation option, but I’m still not comfortable going out of my way to target him. 2022 Projection: 10/4.27/1.32/169 in 160 IP

Hitters

Bobby Dalbec BOS, 1B, 26.9 – After struggling pre break with a .673 OPS and 36.8% K% in 72 games, Dalbec went off in the 2nd half, slashing .269/.344/.611 with 15 homers and a 31.3% K% in 61 games. It all comes down to plate approach with him (34.4%/6.2% K%/BB%), because he smashes the ball with a 92.4 MPH EV. I would be higher on him if Triston Casas wasn’t breathing down his neck. He has about as short of a leash as you can get. 2022 Projection: 66/28/82/.240/.309/.482/2

Enrique Hernandez BOS, 2B/OF, 30.7 – Hernandez put up the best xwOBA of his career with a .346 mark, and he did it on the back of a career high 90.8 MPH EV and 8.4% Barrel%. He brought his BB% back up to 10.4% after it tanked in 2020 to 4.1%. He then nuclear in the playoffs with 5 homers and a 230 wRC+ in 11 games. He’s not going to be a league winner, but he’s established himself as a rock solid option and will likely be underpriced going into 2022. 2022 Projection: 78/23/74/.248/.330/.451/2

Bullpen

Garrett Whitlock BOS, RHP, 25.10 – Whitlock’s role for 2022 is still up in the air as he could find his way into the rotation. He’s a groundball pitcher (7.5 degree launch angle) with above average strikeout rates (27.2% K%) and plus control (5.7% BB%). That is a hell of a combination that led to a 1.96 ERA and 81/17 K/BB in 73.1 IP. He also has plus stuff with a 95.8 MPH sinker (96.3 MPH 4-seamer) and two plus secondaries in his changeup (.226 xwOBA) and slider (.229 xwOBA). He pitched mostly short outings (1-2 IP), so those numbers will likely drop back as a starter, but he’s a great target regardless of what role he ends up in. 2022 Projection: 8/3.63/1.23/124 in 120 IP

Boston Red Sox Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects

1) Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 22.2 – Casas is 6’4”, 252 pounds with double plus raw power and a mature approach at the plate. He put up a 19.1%/15.4% in 86 games at mostly Double-A (9 games at Triple-A). He has a textbook lefty swing with very little movement, and he rarely sells out to get to his power. His homer totals don’t jump out at you with only 14 homers, but he doesn’t have any major groundball issues with a 42.8% GB% (34.6% GB% at Triple-A), so even if he doesn’t make adjustments to unlock more power, he will still hit plenty of homers while maintaining a high BA. He’s in the mold of a Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt if he hits his ceiling. 2022 Projection: 36/10/41/.253/.334/.469/2 Prime Projection: 96/32/102/.276/.365/.515/4

2) Marcelo Mayer BOS, SS, 19.4 – Selected 4th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Mayer stays loose and easy in his stance before unleashing a vicious lefty swing that has monster offensive potential written all over it. He did show some swing and miss in his pro debut with a 25.2% K% in 26 games, but he has a mature plate approach (14% BB%) and a swing that is geared for both power and average. He put up a 121 wRC+. Lack of speed is the only issue for fantasy, and it is the reason he is far from a lock for the top pick in first year player drafts. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 89/25/88/.274/.346/.478/7

3) Nick Yorke BOS, 2B, 20.0 – Boston drafting Nick Yorke 17th overall in 2020 drew some head scratches, but they obviously knew what they were doing because Yorke went off in his pro debut. He slashed .325/.412/.516 with 14 homers, 13 steals (in 22 attempts), and a 15.6%/11.8% K%/BB% in 97 games at mostly Single-A. His K% jumped up to 22.9% at High-A, but he actually put up a better wRC+ at the level (158 wRC+) than he did in Single-A (146 wRC+). He has a double plus hit tool with a mature plate approach and no major groundball issues, so he should hit for solid power on quality of contact alone. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 94/20/75/.288/.366/.463/9

4) Jarren Duran BOS, OF, 25.7 – Duran’s power breakout in 2020 at the alt side carried over into real games in 2021 with 16 homers and a 37.5% GB% in 60 games at Triple-A, but everything crumbled when he got to the majors. He put up a .578 OPS with a 35.7%/3.6% K%/BB% and a 49.3% GB% in 112 PA. The good news is that he hit the ball pretty hard with an above average 89.6/93.6 MPH AVG/FB EV and he’s lightening fast with a 29.3 ft/sec sprint speed. Even with the new flyball approach in Triple-A he was able to maintain a strong 23.3%/10.6% K%/BB%, and he’s been a strong contact hitter his entire career, so those numbers should improve his 2nd time through the majors. 2022 Projection: 46/12/41/.243/.301/.418/14 Prime Projection: 77/18/73/.258/.319/.433/19

5) Blaze Jordan BOS, 3B, 19.3 – Jordan has been well known for his impressive power for years now at 6’2”, 220 pounds with a lightening quick righty swing, and he didn’t disappoint in his pro debut with 6 homers in 28 games split between rookie ball and Single-A. He destroyed rookie ball with a 1.075 OPS in 19 games, and while his plate approach got exposed in full season ball (.289 OBP), he still ripped 2 quick homers in 9 games. He’s not great on defense and he needs to refine his plate approach, but his prodigious power gives him a very high floor for fantasy. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/33/89/.252/.318/.508/3

6) Jeter Downs BOS, 2B, 23.8 – After playing only 12 games in the upper minors (Double-A) prior to this season, Boston sent Downs straight to Triple-A and he simply wasn’t ready. His K% skyrocketed to 32.3% and he put up a 62 wRC+ in 99 games. He was better against inferior competition in the AFL with a .880 OPS, but he still had only a .228 BA with 18 K’s in 16 games. The above average power/speed combo is still there, and this was the first time he has really struggled in his career, so hopefully he can make the necessary adjustments this off-season. 2022 Projection: 17/4/21/.221/.298/.395/3 Prime Projection: 76/23/76/.245/.318/.433/11

7) Brayan Bello BOS, RHP, 22.10 – Bello rolled through High-A with a 2.27 ERA and 45/7 K/BB in 31.2 IP before meeting his match in Double-A with a 4.66 ERA, but his strikeout rate was still excellent (31.1%) and he had a 3.33 xFIP, so he pitched better than his surface stats. He has big stuff with a mid 90’s fastball that he can regularly get into the upper 90’s and the potential for 2 plus secondaries in his slider and change. He has solid control, but his command can waver and he doesn’t necessarily consistently hit his spots. If he can improve his control/command, he has legitimate top of the rotation upside, but he’ll more likely top out as a mid rotation guy with high K rates. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 11/3.89/1.30/175 in 165 IP

8) Alex Binelas BOS, 3B, 21.10 – Drafted 86th overall in 2021 MLB Draft, Binelas is a built up 6’3”, 225 pounds with plus power and hit tool concerns. He’s done nothing but crush homers in his career, hitting 14 dingers in 59 games in the ACC in 2019, 19 dingers in 50 ACC games in 2021, and then 9 dingers in 29 games in his pro debut at Single-A. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 69/26/78/.245/.317/.472/1

9) Gilberto Jimenez BOS, OF, 21.9 – Jimenez had a solid year at Single-A (105 wRC+) led by his good feel to hit with a 21.1% K% and .306 BA, but he wasn’t able to get to any of his power because of a 56.1% GB%. He hit 3 homers in 94 games. He doesn’t walk much (4.7% BB%) and while he has at least plus speed, he hasn’t been very effective on the bases in his career (13 for 21 in 2021). There is still an exciting blend of tools here, and he hasn’t performed poorly by any means, but he needs to find a way to produce more homers and steals if he wants to be an impact fantasy player. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 76/13/62/.275/.319/.412/15

10) Niko Kavadas BOS, 1B, 23.7 – Selected 316th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Kavadas has some of the best pure power in the draft, crushing 22 homers in 47 games in the ACC. He fell to the 11th round because of signing bonus demands and the fact he was a 4 year college player, but none of that changes the very real juice in his lefty bat at 6’1”, 235 pounds. He has strikeout issues and no defensive value, so his bat needs to hit close to his ceiling. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 42/17/49/.237/.323/.458/0

Just Missed

11) Jay Groome BOS, LHP, 23.7

12) Ronaldo Hernandez BOS, C, 24.5 – Hernandez has plus power, drilling 16 homers in 99 games split between Double-A and Triple-A, but he notched a career worst 19.9% K% (still pretty good) and 3.1% BB% (terrible). He’s also not a very good defensive player. Power is the skill you are buying here. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 38/13/47/.241/.290/.432/0

Strategy

Fenway is the 2nd worst pitcher’s park behind Coors Field (according to Statcast), making their non elite pitchers bad bets for fantasy. It’s what makes me hesitant to rank guys like Pivetta, Bello and Groome higher. It’s a great park for hitters (it juices up doubles in particular), but it is a below average park for homers, possibly capping the upside a bit on someone like Verdguo.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
–A Top 200 Sneak Peek of my 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Top 250 is dropping tomorrow)
-Dynasty Team Reports for every team (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)
–Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Top 56 C/Top 78 1B/Top 87 2B/Top 88 3B/Top 122 SS up now)
-End of Season 2021 Top 466 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
-End of Season 2021 Top 322 Dynasty Prospects Rankings

Previous Teams on Patreon
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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)