Posted on by Michael Halpern

Los Angeles Angels 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I like to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team, and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Los Angeles Angels 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE & EARLY ACCESS CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 275 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B–Top 161 SS-Top 316 OF
-TOP 130 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (+Target & Strategy Guide)
-TOP 146 PROSPECTS RANKS (Top 500 coming soon)
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Arizona Diamondbacks–Baltimore Orioles (free)–Boston Red Sox (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Los Angeles Dodgers (free)–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Oakland Athletics–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–St. Louis Cardinals (free)–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

Pitchers

Griffin Canning LAA, RHP, 27.11 – I told you to put a star next to Kutter Crawford’s name as you fill out of the middle to back half of your fantasy rotation in the Boston Red Sox Dynasty Team Report, and Canning is in the very same class of target for me. Neither are big names, neither were super hyped prospects, and both showed signs of extremely exciting breakouts in 2023 that were hidden by less impressive surface stats. Canning’s fastball velocity ticked up to a career high 94.7 MPH, and it turned into a bat missing weapon with a 28.3% whiff%. The slider is plus with a .262 xwOBA, and he throws a legit 4 pitch mix rounded out by a solid changeup and curve. He put up a 29.1% whiff% overall which is in near elite territory, and like Kutter, the control took a big step forward with a plus 6.7% BB%. That is a very impressive profile, and the mediocre 4.32 ERA in 127 IP will keep his price mighty reasonable. Canning and Kutter aren’t sexy breakout picks, which is exactly what makes them excellent targets. They are wolves in sheep’s clothing. They seem boring, but they are actually quite dangerous. 2024 Projection: 10/3.76/1.24/165 in 150 IP

Chase Silseth LAA, RHP, 23.10 – Silseth was very clearly rushed to the majors in 2022 based on team need (6.59 ERA with a 18.6% K%), and I was using it as a buying opportunity headed into 2023, writing in his 2023 Top 1,000 blurb, “Silseth’s poor, rushed MLB debut has him going for a very reasonable price this off-season, because his stuff and minor league performance would have pushed his value much higher if he hadn’t debuted … Use the poor MLB debut as a buying opportunity.” … He was very predictably much better his 2nd run through the majors in 2023 with a 3.96 ERA and 25.3%/11.8% K%/BB% in 52.1 IP. The fastball sits 95 MPH, the splitter is a true put away pitch with a .190 xwOBA, the slider misses a respectable amount of bats with a 33.7% whiff%, and he added a cutter this year which was immediately an above average pitch with a .272 xwOBA. He needs to improve his control to take the next step, and considering he’s always had solid control going back to college, it’s a good bet that he will. 2024 Projection: 9/3.89/1.28/148 in 140 IP

Hitters

Logan O’Hoppe LAA, C, 23.5 – The fun part about playing dynasty is the ability to be so far out ahead of the curve. I’m seeing O’Hoppe being called a sleeper this off-season, meanwhile, I named him a target back in February of 2022 when he was actually a sleeper, calling him “easily the most underrated catcher in the minors” in my 2022 Hitter Targets article (the 2024 version of that article comes out in early February on Patreon). He went down with a torn shoulder that required surgery on April 20th that kept him out for 4 months, but he proved to be completely healthy when he returned. His already above average power ticked up to double plus levels with a 90.5/95.3 MPH AVG/FB EV and 19.6 degree launch, which led to 14 homers in just 51 games. The plate approach was below average, but not terribly so with a 24.1%/7.0% K%/BB%, and while the .236 BA is low, it’s mostly the product of bad luck with a .240 BABIP and .260 xBA. I hope were able to get in for beans back in 2022, but even if you weren’t, he looks setup for a potentially monster 2024 and is worth his now higher price. 2024 Projection: 63/25/76/.248/.322/.468/0

Zach Neto LAA, SS, 23.2 – Ranking Neto 3rd overall on my 2023 FYPD Rankings (over the likes of the more highly regarded Elijah Green, Termarr Johnson, Cam Collier, and Gavin Cross) raised some eyebrows, and my reasoning for it ended up being right on point. I wrote in the 2023 FYPD Target & Strategy Guide (the 2024 version of that article is already out on the Patreon), “He’s one of those picks where he’ll quickly be contributing for LA and you’ll be scratching your head on why you just didn’t scoop this guy. LA has literally kept the SS position open for him.” The Angels calling up Nolan Schanuel just a month after being drafted makes it look like they handled Neto with kid gloves, but at the time it seemed quite aggressive to call Neto up after just a couple weeks into his first full season of pro ball, surprising even me. He didn’t play particularly well offensively with a 89 wRC+ in 84 games, but the 8.8% Barrel%, 89.1/94.2 MPH FB/LD EV, 14.5 degree launch, and 23.4% K% portends very good things for the future. He’s also a plus defensive SS, so his glove will most certainly keep him on the field. I know Schanuel’s debut overshadows how quickly they called up Neto, but even the fact Neto was able to hold his own was impressive coming from a non major college conference. He’s set up to have an excellent 2024 season. 2024 Projection: 79/20/74/.256/.322/.425/12

Bullpen

Carlos Estevez LAA, Closer, 31.3 – Estevez has one half of the elite closer formula with a plus 97.1 MPH fastball that notched a 28.5% whiff%, but he lacks the half second half, which is a whiff machine secondary. The slider is mediocre with a 25.6% whiff% and .332 xwOBA. His control also isn’t good enough to dominate with just the fastball with a 11% BB%. It led to a 3.90 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and 27.8% K% in 62.1 IP. He can definitely be a more than serviceable fantasy closer in 2024, but Jose Soriano and Ben Joyce are both breathing down his neck (see the prospects rankings below), and he’s a free agent after this year, so banking on him to remain a closer beyond 2024 is risky. 2024 Projection: 4/3.74/1.29/75/30 saves in 62 IP

Los Angeles Angels Top 10 Dynasty Prospects

1) Nolan Schanuel LAA, 1B, 22.1 – Selected 11th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Schanuel is a classic Angels first round pick as a safe, fast moving college bat. And boy did he move fast as they sped him through the minors, jumping straight from Double-A to the majors on August 18th. To their credit, Schanuel was ready for the challenge with a 14.5%/15.2% K%/BB% and 112 wRC+ in 29 games. He put up a 14/71 K/BB in 59 games in Conference USA, and a 9/16 K/BB in 17 games at Double-A, so the plate approach certainly looks to be in the elite range. The problem is that the power/speed combo is majorly lacking. He put up a lowly 85.4 MPH EV with a 6.5 degree launch and 26.8 ft/sec sprint speed in the majors. It resulted only 1 homer and 0 steals. He hit the ball very weakly in the minors too with a 10.3% Hard Hit% and only 1 homer in 22 games. He did hit for more power in college with 19 homers this year, and he’s 6’4”, 220 pounds, so there is certainly more in the tank, but it doesn’t look like power is going to be a major part of his game. Buying a hit tool first 1B isn’t my optimal strategy, so I’m not overly high on Schanuel, but calling him the safest, most proximiest (I know that isn’t a word) bat in first year player drafts is an understatement. 2024 Projection: 80/15/70/.270/.355/.400/5 Prime Projection: 92/18/73/.291/.382/.437/6

2) Nelson Rada LAA, OF, 18.8 – Rada skipped right over complex ball to make his stateside debut at Single-A, and he wasn’t rattled with a 113 wRC+ and 18.1%/13.5% K%/BB% in 115 games. As a 17 year old, that is very impressive. He combines the mature plate approach with plus speed that he used to rack up 55 steals, but he doesn’t have much power (2 homers), and he doesn’t really project to have a ton of power down the line either. He had a 63.7% GB%, and he’s already relatively filled out at 5’10”. Obviously the power is only going to tick up from here, so how much he’s able to get to will determine his upside, but he set a very nice floor for himself in 2023. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 82/14/51/.273/.348/.403/27

3) Kyren Paris LAA, 2B/SS, 22.5 – I don’t know how we can trust the Angels to develop this kind of high risk, high reward prospect when so so many of them have stalled out at all levels of their system.  Paris put up a super fun fantasy line at Double-A with 14 homers and 44 steals in 113 games, but it came with a 29.4% K%, and then right on cue it jumped to 37% with a .100 BA in 46 MLB PA. He’s an OBP machine with a 17.1% BB%, he has double plus speed with a 29.2 ft/sec sprint, and he has average to above average power potential, but are we really betting on LA being the team to get his hit tool to a playable level? Even in Tampa, these guys sometimes don’t really start contributing until their mid to late 20’s. I have no problem taking a shot on him, but I think you have to assume it’s not going to work out, and if it does, it might take 3-5 years when he’s probably long off your roster. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 72/18/64/.227/.318/.413/24

4) Caden Dana LAA, RHP, 20.4 – The 6’4”, 215 pound Dana is a strong kid who throws with the football like, at the ear throwing motion that always produces high spin rates. The combination of power and spin created a mid 90’s fastball with a ton of life that lower minors hitters swing right through. He pairs the plus fastball with a potentially plus slider, average curve and a lesser used, developing changeup. He put up a 3.56 ERA with a 31.7%/10.7% K%/BB% in 68.1 IP at mostly High-A. His control is a bit scattershot, he needs to continue to refine his secondaries, and he was shut down in mid July with arm fatigue, so he also needs to prove he can stay healthy with a full workload. There is a long way to go, but he established some strong building blocks towards his potentially impact mid-rotation starter upside. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 10/3.97/1.31/165 in 160 IP

5) Joswa Lugo LAA, SS, 17.2 – Lugo is expected to land one of the top 10 signing bonuses in the 2024 international class. He is already a relatively physical presence in the box at 6’2”, 175 pounds, and he’s still only 16 years old as of this writing. He has easy plus power at peak, and he does it with a smooth, effortless, and controlled righty swing. The hit/power combo has plus potential at peak, and he’s a good athlete too. There is middle of the order, complete hitter potential, but he has all the requisite mystery and risk that comes with shopping in the 16/17 year old international market. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 82/26/86/.269/.340/.468/8

6) Jose Soriano LAA, Setup, 25.6 – Soriano looks like next man up in LA, and he might be the favorite for the closer of the future job when Estevez hits free agency after this season (Ben Joyce will be in the mix as well). He most certainly has closer stuff with two upper 90’s fastballs (98.8 MPH 4-seamer and 96.6 MPH sinker) and a double plus, bat missing curve (.236 xwOBA with a 47.1% whiff%). It resulted in a 3.64 ERA with a 30.4%/12.4% K%/BB% in 42 IP, His 36.2% whiff% is in the true elite zone. He exceeded rookie eligibility in 2023 based on service time, but most of my leagues use the 130 AB and 50 IP threshold to be considered a prospect, so that is the standard I use for my prospect lists. Soriano has the strikeout upside to provide real fantasy value in a setup role, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him closing after the 2024 trade deadline either. 2024 Projection: 4/3.51/1.26/85/9 saves in 65 IP

7) Ben Joyce LAA, Setup, 23.7 – Joyce made it look easy in his pro debut in 2022, jumping straight into Double-A and dominating with a 2.08 ERA with a 35.1%/7.0% K%/BB% in 13 IP, but 2023 was a completely different story. He struggled at both Double-A (4.60 ERA with a 34.3%/18.6% K%/BB% in 15.2 IP) and the majors (5.40 ERA with a 20.8%/18.8% K%/BB% in 10 IP). He missed 3 months mid-season with ulnar neuritis, adding injury risk onto the profile. The insane fastball velocity was still there with a 100.9 MPH fastball, but despite the velocity, it only played as an above average pitch at best on the MLB level, and the slider was average at best with a .319 xwOBA and 31.3% whiff%. Maybe he wasn’t quite healthy, or maybe it was a developmental bump in the road, but his inevitable beeline to the closer role doesn’t look all that inevitable anymore. His weak 2023 might have had Jose Soriano pass him in the pecking order, even if he does have a much better 2024 like I’m expecting. 2024 Projection: 3/3.82/1.31/67/5 saves in 55 IP

8) Barrett Kent LAA, RHP, 19.7 – Selected 234th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft and signed for an over slot $1 million, the 6’4”, 215 pound Kent leads with a mid 90’s fastball that he pairs with two potentially plus secondaries in his slider and changeup. The changeup actually might have double plus potential with nasty diving and tailing action. He dominated in his pro debut with a 0.00 ERA and 27.8%/11.1% K%/BB% in 8.2 IP at rookie and Single-A. The delivery isn’t particularly athletic, he doesn’t consistently maintain his velocity, and his secondaries need refinement, so plenty of improvement is needed all around. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 9/4.19/1.32/150 in 150 IP

9) Sam Bachman LAA, RHP, 24.7 – The Angels system is brutally bad, which is evidence enough to stay away from their prospects in any kind of situation where you are torn on two players. The tie goes to any other team but the Angels. Bachman and the #10 prospect, Stefanic, make this list by default as proximity plays in deep leagues. Bachman immediately took 5 steps back the second the Angels got their hands on him. It’s almost like history is repeating itself with Joyce now. Like Joyce, Bachman looked good in his pro debut in his draft year before the Angels were able to mess with him (3.77 ERA with a 25.9%/6.9% K%/BB% in 14.1 IP at High-A). He then imploded in on himself with injuries and terrible performance in 2022 and 2023. This year, he put up a 5.81 ERA with a 24.6%/16.9% K%/BB% in 26.1 IP at Double-A, and a 3.18 ERA with a 18.2%/14.3% K%/BB% in 17 IP in the majors. His season ended in July with shoulder inflammation. The stuff is still huge with a 96.9 MPH fastball, but it performed as a below average pitch in the majors, and the slider was above average at best with a 34% whiff%. The Angels say they are still developing him as a starter, which I’m not sure is a good thing or a bad thing for his fantasy value at this point. Middle reliever is the most likely outcome, but the stuff, proximity and pedigree (9th overall pick) is enough to stay interesting in a barren system. 2024 Projection: 2/4.21/1.38/54 in 60 IP

10) Michael Stefanic LAA, 2B/3B, 28.1 – Stefanic is the Angels new David Fletcher. He has a truly elite plate approach/contact rates and nothing else. He put up a 7.3%/13.2% K%/BB% in 99 games at Triple-A (139 wRC+) and then did the same in the majors with a 11.3%/11.3% K%/BB% in 71 PA (109 wRC+). Unfortunately, he has only 1 barrel in 104 MLB batted balls with a 26 ft/sec sprint. He’s a utility infielder, but if he does work his way into playing time, he could be a positive for BA and OBP. 2024 Projection: 29/4/26/.265/.339/.378/4

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

I don’t think there is a single bucket of prospect that the Angels have shown any proficiency in developing … well, except maybe the Hall of Famer bucket. Even the Angels couldn’t F up Mike Trout. It took them 7 years to develop Taylor Ward who was the 26th overall pick in 2015 and an advanced college bat. What an average organization can do in 3 years, the Angels will over double that. They seem to have almost entirely quit on the idea of “development” all together, just picking ready made prospects and rushing them to the majors (Neto, Schanuel, Joyce, Silseth). Do you like high risk, high reward prospects with plus power/speed combos and hit tool issues? The Angels love these prospects too, and they have a prospect graveyard full of them to prove it (Adell, Jordyn Adams, Werner Blakely, and Kyren Paris is up next). International prospects? Crickets. Pitching? Stagnant/non existent development across all levels. O’Hoppe, Neto, Canning, and Silseth (to a lesser extent) are all still targets for me, but the only thing I can hang my hat on, is that the Angels have been so horrific with developing players of late there has to be some kind of positive regression coming, right? They can’t actually be this bad. It has to even out at some point.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE & EARLY ACCESS CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 275 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B–Top 161 SS-Top 316 OF
-TOP 130 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (+Target & Strategy Guide)
-TOP 146 PROSPECTS RANKS (Top 500 coming soon)
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Arizona Diamondbacks–Baltimore Orioles (free)–Boston Red Sox (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Los Angeles Dodgers (free)–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Oakland Athletics–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–St. Louis Cardinals (free)–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Top 100 Prospects Rankings for 2024 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues (Patreon)

I actually went 144 prospects deep because here at Imaginary Brick Wall we break the mold. I would value everyone on this list as a “Top 100 Prospect,” because the deeper you get into prospect lists, the more the values even out. The top 21 are free here on the Brick Wall. Analysis and prime projections for every player. The full Top 500+ prospect list will drop the first of February on the Patreon, along with the Top 1000 Dynasty Rankings. Here is the Top 100 Prospects Rankings for 2024 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues (Patreon):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 275 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B–Top 161 SS
-TOP 130 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
–FYPD TARGET & STRATEGY GUIDE
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST

1) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 20.1 – Baseball now uses minor leaguers like guinea pigs, testing out every hairbrained idea they have all willy nilly, and Chourio got caught in the crosshairs of it. The Southern League used a pre-tacked ball for the first half of the season, and Chourio put up a lowly .714 OPS in 71 games. When they went back to the regular ball, he immediately went gangbusters, slashing .324/.379/.538 with 11 homers, 21 steals, and a 13.4%/8.0% K%/BB% in 57 games. He closed out the season at Triple-A where he put up a 4.2%/8.3% K%/BB% in 6 games. He did all of this as a 19 year old. The power/speed combo is plus to double plus, and it sure looks like his contact rates are entering the elite range if you ignore what he did in the 1st half. Jackson Holliday seems to be the consensus #1 prospect in the game (and Wyatt Langford is the trendy #1 for fantasy), but if Chourio hit with the regular ball all season, I’m not so sure that would be the case. The main thing Holliday has over Chourio right now is plate approach, which makes him the safer prospect, but for fantasy, I gotta give the ever so slight edge to the power/speed combo. Milwaukee showed us they are all in by signing him to an 8 year, $82 million contract. It makes it much more likely that he will break camp with the team, and even if doesn’t, it won’t be long until he’s up for good. Chourio is my #1 fantasy prospect. 2024 Projection: 69/21/75/.258/.320/.469/25 Prime Projection: 101/32/104/.283/.353/.523/41

2) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 20.4 – Holliday’s power/speed combo really wasn’t that huge with only 12 homers and 24 steals (in 33 attempts) in 125 games spread across 4 levels (A, A+, AA, AAA). It dropped off even further in the upper minors with 5 homers and 4 steals in 54 games. It seems crazy to start his blurb off with criticism, but when the battle for the top prospect in the game is so close, it needs to be highlighted. Now that we got that out of the way, Holliday had an absolutely insane season where he slashed .323/.442/.499 with a 20.3%/17.4% K%/BB%. He was in high school last year, and he displayed one of the most advanced plate approaches of any prospect all the way through Triple-A. This is why everyone drools over kids with baseball bloodlines, they tend to be far advanced beyond their years. As I mentioned, the power isn’t fully developed yet with relatively low flyball rates, but he hits the ball hard with a 30.2% Hard Hit% and a 90.9 MPH EV in 40 batted balls at Triple-A, so I’m not concerned about the power long term. He has the safety edge over Chourio, but it’s not like Chourio is a risky prospect, so Holliday slots in at #2 for me. 2024 Projection: 78/16/71/.270/.339/.441/20 Prime Projection: 117/27/94/.296/.382/.506/28

3) Wyatt Langford TEX, OF, 22.5 – I have Chourio, Holliday, and Langford in a tier of their own. The only reason Langford is 3rd is because Chourio/Holliday have a longer professional track record and more impressive age to level production. But his power, speed, hit tool, plate approach, and production can rival anyone’s. He was selected 4th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft on the back of elite production in the SEC, slashing .373/.498/.784 with 21 homers, 9 steals, and a 44/56 K/BB in 64 games. He clearly separated himself from Dylan Crews in his pro debut, slashing .360/.480/.677 with 10 homers, 12 steals, and a 17.0%/18.0% K%/BB% in 44 games, and he was equally as dominant in the upper minors as he was the lower minors. He’s the total package, and if you wanted to rank him 1st overall, I wouldn’t argue with you. 2024 Projection: 81/26/77/.262/.338/.479/18 Prime Projection: 103/34/109/.277/.364/.535/24

4) Junior Caminero TBR, 3B/SS, 20.9 – Caminero was a popular breakout pick this year (me included), and he more than lived up to the consensus hype by going full phenom beast mode. He made a mockery of High-A pitching with 11 homers and a 190 wRC+ in 36 games, and then he barely slowed down at Double-A with 20 homers and a 140 wRC+ in 81 games. He even improved his plate approach at Double-A with a 17.1%/9.1% K%/BB% (25.2%/6.3% at High-A). He completed the phenom cycle by jumping straight from Double-A to the majors as a 20 year old for a cup of coffee (he ordered the cold brew with a .631 OPS in 36 PA, but it obviously doesn’t mean much). His calling card is double plus power with a good feel to hit that reminds me of a righty version of Rafael Devers. And while he didn’t run a ton (5 for 10 on the bases), he put up a 28.6 ft/sec sprint speed in the majors, so he’ll certainly contribute in the category at the least. Tampa Bay is forever crowded, but a player like Caminero forces the issue. 2024 Projection: 57/20/64/.260/.323/.462/6 Prime Projection: 96/35/109/.284/.349/.525/10

5) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 21.7 – The only question is how much power will Carter get to, because the plate approach and speed are impregnable at this point. He’s a line drive hitter who didn’t exactly smash the ball in the minors, although a 89/95.8 MPH AVG/FB EV in his 75 PA MLB debut shows he’s not some light hitting weakling. He’s also 6’4”, 190 pounds and only 21 years old, so more raw power is certainly coming. He hit 12 homers in 105 games at mostly Double-A (133 wRC+), then he set the baseball world on fire by hitting 5 homers in his first 23 games in the majors (180 wRC+), and finally he closed out the year with 1 homer in 17 playoff games (155 wRC+). That’s 18 homers in 145 games. If he can just get to about 25 homers in his prime, the man is going to be a terror. The speed is double plus with a 29.5 ft/sec sprint speed (31 steals overall), and the plate approach is elite. He had a 9% chase% in his MLB debut and he’s been an elite plate approach guy his entire career in the minors. He struggles vs. lefties, but just like with Gunnar Henderson last year, I wouldn’t let that scare you off an elite prospect. The downside is a .260 hitter with 15 homers and 25 steals, which isn’t that bad, and the upside is a .280/25/35 guy. 2024 Projection: 87/18/72/.263/.334/.429/26 Prime Projection: 105/24/80/.278/.367/.468/31

6) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 21.8 – I would completely ignore what Lawlar did in his super small sample, 34 PA MLB debut. Don’t even look at his Statcast page, it will only get in your head. Your focus should be on the pitchers he laid waste to in the upper minors. He slashed .278/.378/.496 with 20 homers, 36 steals, and a 20.6%/11.4% K%/BB% in 105 games at Double-A and Triple-A. His contact rates took a big step forward from 2022, he has truly elite speed with a 30.1 ft/sec sprint speed, and he hit the ball fairly hard, especially for a 20 year old, with a 31.8% Hard Hit%. He’s 6’2”, 190 pounds with room to add more muscle, so the power is only going up from here. He has legitimate Top 10 dynasty asset potential. 2024 Projection: 69/14/55/.248/.317/.410/25 Prime Projection: 103/24/84/.273/.351/.470/38

7) Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD, RHP, 25.7 – When it comes to potentially elite, all category hitting prospects, you have to pry them from my cold dead hands, which is why I would struggle to give up any of the hitting prospects ranked above for Yamamoto (or even the few ranked after him depending on my team build). In fantasy, pitchers can’t contribute in every pitching category (saves at least, and some leagues have both saves and holds), so that right there limits their upside relative to an elite hitter. Not to mention the much much much higher injury risk which can knock out 2 years of their career off a single injury, and then the stress of whether or not they will get back to 100%. On a real life list, I can see ranking Yamamoto 1st overall, but for fantasy, it’s just not how I play the game, even for a pitcher that is expected to be as good as Yamamoto. The Dodgers made him the highest paid pitcher in history with a 12 year, $325 million contract (plus a $50 million posting fee). That is really all you need to know. He’s expected to be a true ace right from the get go, and signing with the best developmental team in the game also takes a lot of the risk out of his transition to a new ball, new country, new league etc … He’s been a true ace in Japan for years now, and that continued this year with a pitching line of 1.16/0.86/176/28 in 171 IP. He pitched 193 innings in both 2021 and 2022, so there also isn’t any concern of how many innings he can pitch. The fastball sits mid 90’s and regularly hits the upper 90’s. A nasty splitter is his most used secondary, and he also throws a very good curve, 2-seamer, and cutter. He has elite command over all of his pitches, and he has an unique, oddly athletic delivery which he varies constantly to mess with hitters timing. He’s a straight up nightmare to face, and looks like a ready made ace. 2024 Projection: 14/3.42/1.11/195 in 180 IP

8) Noelvi Marte CIN, 3B, 22.6 – Everyone called Marte fat and slow this off-season, so of course he put up double plus run times in the majors with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed. Be super wary of scouting speed grades as they are wildly inaccurate (see also, Henry Davis and Nolan Jones). Not only is he a speedster, but he crushed the ball with a 91.3 MPH EV, and the hit tool looked good with a 20.3% K% and .296 xBA in 123 MLB PA. It all resulted in a slash line of .316/.366/.456 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 20.3%/6.5% K%/BB%. He showed those same skills in the upper minors with 11 homers, 18 steals, and a .279 BA in 92 games. He did all of this as a 21-year-old. He’s fast, he hits it hard, he gets the bat on the ball, he produced in the upper minors, he produced in the majors, and he was super young. Quite simply, this is an elite fantasy prospect, and I’m not sure he gets the respect he deserves. 2024 Projection: 77/19/73/.261/.322/.431/22 Prime Projection: 96/27/91/.276/.354/.491/25

9) Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 22.1 – Starting this blurb with anything other than the 73 wRC+ and 0 homers Crews put up in 85 PA at Double-A would be beating around the bush, and you know me, I don’t beat around the bush. The performance was bad enough to have Wyatt Langford clearly pass him for the top spot in my Top 130 2024 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (Wyatt’s dominance also had something to do with that), and also for me to prefer the newly minted highest paid pitcher in baseball history (Yamamoto), but that is where it ends. 85 PA isn’t enough to sour me on the 2nd overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. Crews is built like a solid rock at 6’0”, 203 pounds, and he swings the bat so fast and powerfully it almost looks like he’s using an illegally light bat (he’s not, at least I don’t think he is ha). The ball explodes off it on contact. He obliterated the SEC from the second he stepped on campus as a freshman, and he kept on improving through his junior year, slashing .380/.498/.689 with 58 homers, 23 steals, and a 146/152 K/BB in 196 career games. He also destroyed the lower minors with a 192 wRC+ in 71 PA at Single-A. His floor feels like a 30+ homer bat without the best BA or tons of steals, but the ceiling is that of a truly elite dynasty player. 2024 Projection: 62/20/71/.257/.329/.473/12 Prime Projection: 94/32/103/.274/.361/.518/16

10) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 21.2 – The backlash to Dominguez’ early career hype made it hard to hold the line, but I remained all in on Dominguez last off-season, ranking him 10th overall, and he more than delivered on that ranking this year. He hit 15 homers with 37 steals and a 25.6%/15.2% K%/BB% in 109 games at Double-A as a 20 year old. Then he quickly ran through Triple-A with a 180 wRC+ in 9 games, before finishing out his season with 4 homers and a 162 wRC+ in 8 games in the majors. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery put a halt to what was sure to be insane hype this off-season, but I wouldn’t let the Tommy John surgery scare you off. It isn’t as big of a deal for hitters as it is for pitchers, and he’s expected to return by the 2nd half of 2024. His extremely good MLB debut will likely make it hard to get good value for him this off-season even with the surgery, so my move would be to hope he needs to shake off some rust when he returns next season to bring his value into a more reasonable range again. 2024 Projection: 30/8/26/.242/.324/.438/10 Prime Projection: 92/26/86/.266/.361/.485/28

11) James Wood WAS, OF, 21.7 – The K% jumped to 33.7% in 87 games at Double-A, which is exactly what you are worried about with a player this tall (6’6”), but Wood is the type of unicorn athlete where you don’t want to let it scare you off him. He still cracked 18 homers with 10 steals and a 124 wRC+ at the level as a 20 year old. And that was coming off a 155 wRC+ in 42 games at the more age appropriate High-A. Despite his size and high strikeout rate, Wood has a relatively short and quick swing which gives hope he’ll be able to keep the strikeout rate in a range that allows his truly elite talent shine. Don’t expect a high BA, but expect him to kill it everywhere else. 2024 Projection: 45/17/51/.229/.308/.450/13 Prime Projection: 91/30/99/.253/.341/.508/18

12) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 22.0 – I’ve been all in on Pete Crow since before he was drafted, and he finally fulfilled his elite prospect destiny in 2023. The power took yet another step forward with him jacking 20 homers in 107 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s not an EV masher, but he doesn’t hit the ball weakly either, and his high launch will ensure he gets the most out of his still growing raw power. The CF defense and speed are elite with a 29.9 ft/sec sprint speed and 37 steals. There is bit more swing and miss than optimal with a 26% K%, but he’s always generally had a good feel to hit, and he’s never had low BA’s in the minors, so I’m not overly concerned about it. Armstrong has 20/40 written all over him. 2024 Projection: 41/9/29/.241/.310/.407/19 Prime Projection: 91/22/76/.257/.334/.439/34

13) Walker Jenkins MIN, OF, 19.1 – Selected 5th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, the 6’3”, 215 pounds Jenkins has that sweet lefty swing that just oozes offensive potential. It’s athletic, quick, under control, powerful, smooth … I can go on and on. It’s hard to watch this guy hit and not completely fall in love. It has the potential for at least plus hit and plus power at peak, and he’s also a good athlete with above average run times. But we don’t have to only dream on the potential, as Jenkins’ showed it to us clear as day in his pro debut, slashing .362/.417/.571 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 12.2%/7.8% K%/BB% in 26 games split evenly between rookie ball (138 wRC+) and Single-A (182 wRC+). It’s the type of profile that can be an elite dynasty asset a la Kyle Tucker. Langford, Crews, and Yamamoto are locked in as my top 3 FYPD picks, and while there are good arguments for Skenes or even Matt Shaw at #4, I don’t think I can pass up on the truly “generational” (or maybe nearly generational would be more accurate ha) upside of Jenkins. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 94/31/102/.273/.345/.510/16

14) Roman Anthony BOS, OF, 19.11 – I ended Anthony’s 2023 Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “There is a lot of refinement needed, but this is a high upside bat who could explode up rankings if everything comes together.” … well, everything came together and Anthony exploded up rankings, slashing .272/.403/.466 with 14 homers, 16 steals, and a 24.2%/17.5% K%/BB% in 106 games at mostly Single-A (109 wRC+) and High-A (164 wRC+). It was a little concerning that the K% jumped to 30.6% at High-A, but then he closed out the season at Double-A and had a 185 wRC+ with a 13.6%/18.2% K%/BB% in 10 games. And he did all this starting the season as an 18 year old. He’s an elite athlete at 6’2”, 200 pounds with a plus power/speed combo, powerful lefty swing, and a mature plate approach. The only things preventing him from being ranked even higher is that he’s not great at lifting the ball with an under 25% Flyball%, and he wasn’t a great base stealer with 16 steals in 23 attempts. He hits the ball so hard he can survive without a huge launch, and he has time to refine his base stealing skills as well, so neither are major concerns. He’s on a short list to be the #1 overall fantasy prospect in baseball by this time next year. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 96/25/88/.273/.358/.472/16

15) Jackson Jobe DET, RHP, 21.9 – Jobe made his season debut in mid June from lumber spine inflammation, which obviously sounded worse than it really was, because he immediately looked like the best pitching prospect in baseball when he returned. He had a 2.81 ERA with a 32.6%/2.3% K%/BB% in 64 IP at mostly High-A. He closed the season out with a gem at Double-A, going 6 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER, and a 6/0 K/BB, and then he went to the AFL and dominated in that extreme hitter’s environment with a 2.87 ERA and 19/5 K/BB in 15.2 IP. He looks absolutely electric on the mound at 6’2”, 190 pounds with an athletic delivery and a double plus 4 pitch mix. He was known for his high spin slider coming into the draft, and the pitch is so filthy it almost doesn’t look real. His changeup dominated as well with nasty tailing diving action, the fastball sits mid 90’s with excellent movement, and the cutter is a high spin pitch that misses bats. And he does all of this with pinpoint control. He still has to prove it in the upper minors, which I’m not too concerned about, and he has to prove he can stay healthy and maintain his stuff with a full MLB starters workload, which is more concerning, but that’s just the pitching prospect game. He’s my #1 pitching prospect in baseball, non Yoshinobu Yamamoto division. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 15/3.18/1.03/220 in 180 IP

16) Paul Skenes PIT, RHP, 21.10 – Selected 1st overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Skenes’ season was nothing short of jaw dropping with a pitching line of 1.69/0.75/209/20 in 122.2 IP in the SEC. His fastball sits in the upper 90’s and routinely hits over 100 MPH. His slider is elite, and while he didn’t go to his changeup as much, that pitch is also nasty. He also displayed plus control of his entire arsenal. He’s 6’6”, 235 pounds with a relatively athletic delivery and he’s a good athlete in general as evidenced by the fact he is also an excellent hitter. He had a career 1.121 OPS in 119 games in the Mountain West before transferring into the SEC. There were some whispers about poor fastball shape in his 6.2 IP pro debut, but I wouldn’t let that sour you on a generational type pitching prospect. He’ll still be just 21 years old on Opening Day, so plenty of refinement, tinkering, new pitches etc … are coming down the road. 2024 Projection: 8/3.80/1.27/133 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.28/1.06/237 in 190 IP

17) Matt Shaw CHC, 2B/SS, 22.5 – Selected 13th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Shaw is only 5’11”, but he’s a thick dude who has real power, and he combines that with above average speed and excellent base stealing skills. He has that little man leg kick (which Chicago toned down a hair in pro ball) that I absolutely love in the mold of a Alex Bregman, Spencer Steer, and Zach Neto. It seems to be working for these slightly undersized guys, and it’s certainly working for Shaw. He smashed 24 homers with 18 steals and a 1.142 OPS in 62 Big Ten games. He also impressed in the wood bat Cape Cod League with 5 homers, 21 steals, and a 1.006 OPS in 36 games. He then ran through pro ball like it was nothing, finishing the year at Double-A slashing .292/.329/.523 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 17.1%/4.3% K%/BB% in 15 games at the level. Shaw was my top draft target pre-draft (I actually pointed out Shaw as my top target back in February before the season even started), but now that he absolutely blew up in pro ball, there is no chance you get a great value on him. He’s worth his very high draft price though. 2024 Projection: 36/10/43/.253/.312/.432/11 Prime Projection: 85/25/89/.271/.337/.469/21

18) Ricky Tiedemann TOR, LHP, 21.7 – Tiedemann’s dominance in the AFL quieted some of the risk that was growing after an injured and mixed bag season in 2023. He had a 2.50 ERA with a 23/8 K/BB in 18 IP. He went 5 IP in 3 of the 4 starts after not reaching 5 IP the entire season. The stuff is elite with a mid 90’s fastball and two plus secondaries in his slider and changeup. He also looks the part at 6’4”, 220 pounds with an almost sidearm lefty delivery. If he stays healthy and throws the ball over the plate, he’ll be an easy ace, but those are the two areas that can trip him up. He pitched only 62 innings all year, including the AFL, because of a biceps injury that kept him out for almost 3 months. It will probably take 3 years to truly build up his innings fully, and we all know the injury risk with young flamethrowers like this. His 12% BB% is also nearing the danger zone where inconsistency can end up a part of the profile. The profile isn’t without risk, but when dealing in upside prospect flamethrowers, that is just the game. He’s an elite pitching prospect. 2024 Projection: 5/3.81/1.31/111 in 100 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.38/1.19/213 in 170 IP

19) Parker Meadows DET, OF, 24.5 – I know this ranking seems high, but Meadows is looking mighty similar to my Nolan Jones and Zack Gelof buy calls from mid-season, and if you look at redraft and dynasty rankings this off-season, those guys now get valued in the range that elite prospects get ranked, or even higher. Meadows has the potential to make that same jump from afterthought prospect to highly valued dynasty asset, and you should get in this off-season before it happens. He has a very fantasy friendly skillset with the build and athleticism to back it up, but he always got vastly underrated on prospect lists. And unlike Jones and Gelof who have played far too well to still be underrated this off-season, Meadows is setting up to be in perfect buy territory with a .699 OPS in 37 games. He had a 89.3 MPH EV, 18.3 degree launch, 29 ft/sec sprint, 24% whiff%, and 11.7% BB%. And to top it all off, his at least above average CF defense should keep him in the lineup. That is a recipe for tons of fantasy goodness, and you might be able to acquire him for barely anything this off-season. His 293 NFBC ADP shows his perceived value to fantasy upside could be as wide as anyone’s right now. He’s a major target. 2024 Projection: 79/23/76/.248/.328/.432/24

20) Colt Keith DET, 3B/2B, 22.8 – Keith more than hinted at a big breakout in 2022 with a 150 wRC+ in 48 games at High-A, but a shoulder injury cut the explosion short, and even though he made it back to dominate the AFL (1.004 OPS in 19 games), the hype was still relatively subdued last off-season. Well, the explosion continued right into 2023, and this time he did it in the upper minors with a 163 wRC+ and 14 homers in 59 games at Double-A, followed up by a 119 wRC+ and 13 homers in 67 games at Triple-A. He hits the ball very hard, he has a mature plate approach, and the hit tool is at least above average. He’s one of the most complete prospect hitters in the game, and he should break camp with the team in 2024. 2024 Projection: 74/24/81/.258/.329/.445/2 Prime Projection: 89/29/92/.276/.352/.480/3

21) Coby Mayo BAL, 1B/3B, 22.4 – My boldest prediction in last off-season’s Predicting the 2024 Top 50 Prospects Rankings was that Coby Mayo would explode to a Top 10 prospect, predicting that “Mayo will follow in Gunnar Henderson’s footsteps with an off the charts type season in the upper minors. He’ll put up a 150 wRC+ at Double-A and a 130 wRC+ at Triple-A. The K% will be under 25%, the power will be huge, and there will be some surprising speed too.” … Mayo put up a 178 wRC+ in 78 games at Double-A and a 127 wRC+ in 62 games at Triple-A. The power was huge with 29 homers in 140 games, and the K% was under 25% at 24.1%. I don’t think I could have nailed that more even if I was actually able to see into the future. The surprising speed didn’t really show up with only 5 steals, but better than nothing. The 6’5”, 230 pound Mayo is now a truly elite power hitting prospect, just as I expected. 2024 Projection: 31/11/35/.242/.319/.455/2 Prime Projection: 86/34/99/.265/.346/.535/6

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 275 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B–Top 161 SS
-TOP 130 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
–FYPD TARGET & STRATEGY GUIDE
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Patreon: Top 130 2024 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings

It’s First Year Player Draft Week over on the Patreon, and we kick it off with the Top 131 2024 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings. Top 13 are free here on the Brick Wall. Analysis and Prime Projections for every player. The FYPD Target and Strategy Guide is coming tomorrow. Here is the Top 130 2024 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 275 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B–Top 161 SS
-TOP 130 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Arizona Diamondbacks–Baltimore Orioles (free)–Boston Red Sox (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Los Angeles Dodgers (free)–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Oakland Athletics–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–St. Louis Cardinals (free)–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

1) Wyatt Langford TEX, OF, 22.5 – I know that taking the ready made ace in Yamamoto is extremely enticing, but there is no better asset in dynasty baseball than the young, impact all category beast, and Langford has a very good chance to become that. Building your team around a young pitcher is so much more risky. Just look at Ohtani who already had 2 major elbow surgeries that will knock out 3 of his 7 MLB seasons, but he’s been able to hit like a beast through it all. Unlike Ohtani, Yamamoto doesn’t hit. Langford was selected 4th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft on the back of elite production in the SEC, slashing .373/.498/.784 with 21 homers, 9 steals, and a 44/56 K/BB in 64 games. He clearly separated himself from Dylan Crews in his pro debut, slashing .360/.480/.677 with 10 homers, 12 steals, and a 17.0%/18.0% K%/BB% in 44 games, and he was equally as dominant in the upper minors as he was the lower minors. He’s the total package. I have Chourio, Holliday, and Langford in a tier of their own atop my Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings. The only reason Langford is 3rd is because Chourio/Holliday have a longer professional track record and more impressive age to level production. But his power, speed, hit tool, plate approach, and production can rival anyone’s, and if you wanted to rank him 1st overall on prospects rankings, I wouldn’t argue with you. 2024 Projection: 81/26/77/.262/.338/.479/16 Prime Projection: 103/34/109/.277/.364/.535/20

2) Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD, RHP, 25.7 – The Dodgers made Yamamoto the highest paid pitcher in history with a 12 year, $325 million contract (plus a $50 million posting fee). That is really all you need to know. He’s expected to be a true ace right from the get go, and signing with the best developmental team in the game also takes a lot of the risk out of his transition to a new ball, new country, new league etc … He’s been a true ace in Japan for years now, and that continued this year with a pitching line of 1.16/0.86/176/28 in 171 IP. He pitched 193 innings in both 2021 and 2022, so there also isn’t any concern of how many innings he can pitch. The fastball sits mid 90’s and regularly hits the upper 90’s. A nasty splitter is his most used secondary, and he also throws a very good curve, 2-seamer, and cutter. He has elite command over all of his pitches, and he has an unique, oddly athletic delivery which he varies constantly to mess with hitters timing. He’s a straight up nightmare to face, and looks like a ready made ace. 2024 Projection: 14/3.42/1.11/195 in 180 IP

3) Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 22.1 – Starting this blurb with anything other than the 73 wRC+ and 0 homers Crews put up in 85 PA at Double-A would be beating around the bush, and you know me, I don’t beat around the bush. The performance was bad enough to have Wyatt Langford clearly pass him for the top spot in first year players drafts (Wyatt’s dominance also had something to do with that), and also for me to prefer the newly minted highest paid pitcher in baseball history (Yamamoto), but that is where it ends. 85 PA isn’t enough to sour me on the 2nd overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. Crews is built like a solid rock at 6’0”, 203 pounds, and he swings the bat so fast and powerfully it almost looks like he’s using an illegally light bat (he’s not, at least I don’t think he is ha). The ball explodes off it on contact. He obliterated the SEC from the second he stepped on campus as a freshman, and he kept on improving through his junior year, slashing .380/.498/.689 with 58 homers, 23 steals, and a 146/152 K/BB in 196 career games. He also destroyed the lower minors with a 192 wRC+ in 71 PA at Single-A. His floor feels like a 30+ homer bat without the best BA or tons of steals, but the ceiling is that of a truly elite dynasty player. 2024 Projection: 62/20/71/.257/.329/.473/12 Prime Projection: 94/32/103/.274/.361/.518/16

4) Walker Jenkins MIN, OF, 19.1 – Selected 5th overall, the 6’3”, 215 pounds Jenkins has that sweet lefty swing that just oozes offensive potential. It’s athletic, quick, under control, powerful, smooth … I can go on and on. It’s hard to watch this guy hit and not completely fall in love. It has the potential for at least plus hit and plus power at peak, and he’s also a good athlete with above average run times. But we don’t have to only dream on the potential, as Jenkins’ showed it to us clear as day in his pro debut, slashing .362/.417/.571 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 12.2%/7.8% K%/BB% in 26 games split evenly between rookie ball (138 wRC+) and Single-A (182 wRC+). It’s the type of profile that can be an elite dynasty asset a la Kyle Tucker. Langford, Yamamoto, and Crews are locked in as my top 3 FYPD picks, and while there are good arguments for Skenes or even Matt Shaw at #4, I don’t think I can pass up on the truly “generational” (or maybe nearly generational would be more accurate) upside of Jenkins. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 94/31/102/.273/.345/.510/16

5) Paul Skenes PIT, RHP, 21.10 – Selected 1st overall, Skenes’ season was nothing short of jaw dropping with a pitching line of 1.69/0.75/209/20 in 122.2 IP in the SEC. His fastball sits in the upper 90’s and routinely hits over 100 MPH. His slider is elite, and while he didn’t go to his changeup as much, that pitch is also nasty. He also displayed plus control of his entire arsenal. He’s 6’6”, 235 pounds with a relatively athletic delivery and he’s a good athlete in general as evidenced by the fact he is also an excellent hitter. He had a career 1.121 OPS in 119 games in the Mountain West before transferring into the SEC. There were some whispers about poor fastball shape in his 6.2 IP pro debut, but I wouldn’t let that sour you on a generational type pitching prospect. He’ll still be just 21 years old on Opening Day, so plenty of refinement, tinkering, new pitches etc … are coming down the road. 2024 Projection: 8/3.80/1.27/133 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.28/1.06/237 in 190 IP

6) Matt Shaw CHC, 2B/SS, 22.5 – Selected 13th overall, Shaw is only 5’11”, but he’s a thick dude who has real power, and he combines that with above average speed and excellent base stealing skills. He has that little man leg kick (which Chicago toned down a hair in pro ball) that I absolutely love in the mold of a Alex Bregman, Spencer Steer, and Zach Neto. It seems to be working for these slightly undersized guys, and it’s certainly working for Shaw. He smashed 24 homers with 18 steals and a 1.142 OPS in 62 Big Ten games. He also impressed in the wood bat Cape Cod League with 5 homers, 21 steals, and a 1.006 OPS in 36 games. He then ran through pro ball like it was nothing, finishing the year at Double-A slashing .292/.329/.523 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 17.1%/4.3% K%/BB% in 15 games at the level. Shaw was my top draft target pre-draft (I actually pointed out Shaw as my top target back in February before the season even started), but now that he absolutely blew up in pro ball, there is no chance you get great value on him. He’s worth his very high draft price though. 2024 Projection: 36/10/43/.253/.312/.432/11 Prime Projection: 85/25/89/.271/.337/.469/21

7) Max Clark DET, OF, 19.4 –  Clark is the 2023 draft version of Pete Crow Armstrong and Corbin Carroll, two guys who I was the high man on in their first year player draft class, although Clark actually got the respect he deserved by getting selected 3rd overall. Maybe the success of those aforementioned players paved the way for a guy like Clark to get valued correctly. As you can tell from the comps, double plus speed with a plus hit tool and developing power is what you are buying. He’s a pretty thick and muscular 6’1”, 190 pounds, so I don’t think you have to squint too hard to see legitimate power developing down the line, even if he’s more a line drive hitter currently. After dominating rookie ball with a 146 wRC+ in 12 games, he got slowed down a bit at Single-A with a 73 wRC+ and 29.4% K% in 11 games, but he still had a .353 OBP, so it’s not like he was completely overmatched or anything. 5×5 BA leagues are going to be his bread and butter, but like Carroll, he can be a beast regardless of league type. He has elite dynasty asset upside. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 93/18/72/.278/.347/.433/33

8) Colt Emerson SEA, SS, 18.8 – Selected 22nd overall, the 6’1”, 195 pound Emerson had an electric pro debut, both statistically and visually. He slashed .374/.496/.550 with 2 homers, 8 steals, and a 17.5%/14.9% K%/BB% in 24 games at rookie ball (251 wRC+) and Single-A (147 wRC+). He has an athletic, lightning quick lefty swing that the ball absolutely rockets off of. It’s geared for both power and average. He’s not a true burner, but he has speed and he was perfect on the bases. He’ll also be 18 years old for most of the 2024 season. He checks off almost every box that you look for in a potential elite prospect coming out of the draft (size, power, average, speed, age, sweet swing, production). If you’re drafting in the mid to late 1st round, and all the buzzy names are off the board, you can confidently take Emerson knowing he can easily end up amongst the best in the class. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 93/26/86/.277/.356/.475/15

9) Jung Hoo Lee SFG, OF, 25.7 – San Francisco signed Lee to a 6 year, $113 million contract, which is definitely an eye opening amount, but he earned that contract for his real life baseball value, and not for his fantasy value. He had extremely high groundball rates in Korea with a 59.2% GB% in 2023, and he doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard. He hit only 6 homers in 86 games. He has speed, but he’s not a true burner, and he hasn’t been a good base stealer. He was 6 for 9 in 2023 and has a career high of 13 steals in 20 attempts. He also fractured his ankle in July which required season ending surgery, so that adds even more risk to his future steal projections. And to top it all off, he landed in one of the very worst hitter’s parks in the league. He’s truly elite at what he does well though, and that is hit for average. He had a 5.9%/12.7% K%/BB% in 2023, and he has a career .340 BA. He was a baseball prodigy with baseball bloodlines, dominating the KBO from the time he was 18 years old with a sweet lefty swing. He’s not a small guy at 6’0”, and there is most certainly room to tack on mass at a relatively skinny 171 pounds. He has a little bit of that Ichiro feel to him, where if he wanted to hit for more power, he would, and he did crack 23 homers in 142 games in 2022, so it’s not like he’s been some light hitter in his career. It’s also possible he runs a lot more with the new stolen base rules in MLB. It might take him a couple years to get fully acclimated like it has Ha-Seong Kim, but once he does, a .300/15/15 season looks well within reach, and it wouldn’t shock me if he got to 20/20. He might be more valuable in real life than fantasy, but that doesn’t mean he still can’t be a very good fantasy player. 2024 Projection: 81/11/51/.285/.341/.401/12 Prime Projection: 93/15/62/.305/.371/.437/15

10) Tommy Troy ARI, 3B/2B, 21.8 – Selected 12th overall, the first thing that pops out when watching Troy is his absolute vicious bat speed and rotation. It’s controlled violence at it’s finest. He used that explosive swing to have a monster junior year, slashing .394/.478/.699 with 17 homers, 17 steals, and a 42/35 K/BB in 58 Pac12 games. He’s not a huge tools guy at 5’10”, 197 pounds, so the power/speed combo might not be huge on the Major League level, but he at least proved it will transfer to wood bats in pro ball, slashing .247/.343/.447 with 4 homers, 8 steals, and a 26.3%/12.1% K%/BB% in 23 games at High-A. His hit tool is good, but there is still some swing and miss in his game which popped up in his pro debut. There is definitely a chance the upside might not end up being very high, but he does a lot of things well, and like I highlighted above, the swing is truly impressive to me. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 82/20/76/.255/.330/.441/20

11) Brock Wilken MIL, 3B, 21.10 – Selected 18th overall, the 6’4”, 225 pound Wilken is almost the exact definition of a lurking slugger. He quite literally lurks over the plate with an eerily calm and foreboding batting stance which he used to unleash 31 homers in 66 ACC games. He then stepped right into pro ball and raked with a .887 OPS in 47 games split between rookie, High-A, and Double-A. He has the huge EV’s to back up the power. The hit tool and plate approach made big jumps this year with a .345 BA and 58/69 K/BB in college, but he still isn’t expected to hit for much average, and a 36% K% in 6 games at Double-A hints at the hit tool risk. You are buying the monster power here. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/31/87/.247/.332/.495/3

12) Leodalis De Vries SDP, SS, 17.6 – Last year in the Felnin Celesten blurb, I wrote, “Considering the last couple international classes haven’t really popped, Celesten could come at a very reasonable price in 2023 First Year Player Drafts. This could be the year to dive back into this market.” … obviously Celesten didn’t have the opportunity to pop, but I nailed my observation that 2023 was the year to jump back into the international player pool market with Ethan Salas and Sebastian Walcott exploding (along with Joendry Vargas and others). But now that we are coming off that international prospect explosion, prices are going to be much higher this year. And that starts with the top player in the 2024 international class, Leodalis De Vries. He has almost everything you look for in a potentially elite prospect. He’s a switch hitter at projectable 6’2”, 175 pounds with an extremely quick, loose, and athletic swing. He’s known for his mature plate approach and good feel to hit, and there is certainly plus power potential in here at peak. He’s also an excellent athlete with above average speed. The plate skills give him as high of a floor as you can get for a 17 year old international prospect, and the upside is considerable as well. International prospects are definitely the most mysterious and risky class of prospect to shop in, but when they hit, they hit in a huge way. De Vries is worth taking on the risk. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 89/24/86/.276/.352/.462/18

13) Hurston Waldrep ATL, RHP, 22.1 – Pitcher’s don’t usually make big moves in either direction in their pro debut, but Waldrep bucked that trend. His double plus mid to upper 90’s fastball/splitter combo put up a 33.3% K% and 1.53 ERA in 29.1 IP spread across 4 levels (A, A+, AA, AAA). He also throws a curve and slider that both have plus potential. There is zero doubt about the strikeout ability with a 34.7% K% in 101.2 IP in the SEC in 2023 as well. The reason he only got selected 24th overall though, is that there is definitely some risk in his profile. The control is well below average with a 12.7% BB% at college and a 13.0% BB% in pro ball. He also had a mediocre college season with a 4.16 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, and the K/BB numbers weren’t quite as impressive in the upper minors with a 16/10 K/BB in 14.1 IP at Double-A and Triple-A. Ending up in Atlanta is a great landing spot as they know what they are doing when it comes to pitching, so I’m more apt to go after him now than I would have been if he went to a lesser organization. And if you go K chasing in fantasy, which I do, Waldrep is mighty enticing despite the risk. 2024 Projection: 3/4.13/1.35/75 in 70 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.71/1.28/185 in 165 IP

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 275 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B–Top 161 SS
-TOP 130 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Arizona Diamondbacks–Baltimore Orioles (free)–Boston Red Sox (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Los Angeles Dodgers (free)–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Oakland Athletics–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–St. Louis Cardinals (free)–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

St. Louis Cardinals 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I like to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team, and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the St. Louis Cardinals 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE & EARLY ACCESS CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 275 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B–Top 161 SS
-TOP 130 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Arizona Diamondbacks–Baltimore Orioles (free)–Boston Red Sox (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Los Angeles Dodgers (free)–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Oakland Athletics–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

Hitters

Jordan Walker STL, OF, 21.10 – The vibe seems to be that Jordan Walker was a bust, or at least a disappointment, but in my book, his value took a jump in 2023. He was a 20/21 year old in the majors who put up a well above average 116 wRC+ in 117 games. He hit the ball hard with an 89.4 MPH EV, he had plus speed with a 28.6 ft/sec sprint, he had an average plate approach with a 22.4%/8.0% K%/BB%, and all the hand wringing over his launch angle early in the season proved to be unfounded with a solid 10.2 degree launch. We can’t expect every prospect to immediately put up MVP numbers when we demand they get called up as 19/20/21 year olds. Being an above average MLB hitter at Walker’s age is extremely, extremely impressive, and for me, it puts him right on track to become the beast we all thought he would be last off-season. He ranked 35th on A Top 275 Sneak Peek of the 2024 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). 2024 Projection: 87/26/85/.271/.340/.469/15 Prime Projection: 98/31/102/.279/.356/.513/17

Nolan Gorman STL, 2B, 23.11 – Gorman’s swing and miss is in the danger zone with a 31.9% K% and 35.5% whiff%, and it made him an extremely streaky player in 2023. He alternated between red hot and ice cold, but it all added up to a classic low BA slugger type season, slashing .236/.328/.478 with 27 homers, 7 steals, and a 31.9%/11.4% K%/BB% in 119 games. He’s not a good defensive player, but St. Louis seems committed to getting his bat in the lineup, and looking up and down their organization, he’s one of their few young sluggers, so I’m not too worried about playing time long term. He also hits lefties well with a .840 OPS in 2023, so that shouldn’t be a major issue either. If his hit tool takes a step forward, he can be one of the best power hitters in the game, and even if it doesn’t, a 91 MPH EV, 22.2 degree launch, and 16.5% Barrel% ensures he will be an impact fantasy player no matter what. 2024 Projection: 77/33/90/.242/.331/.490/7

Pitchers

Lance Lynn STL, RHP, 36.11 – If the Dodgers couldn’t magically turn Lynn around, what hope do the rest of the mere mortals have? St. Louis is willing to give it a shot for a cool $11 million, but I wouldn’t even spend $11 of fake auction money on him. He had a 5.73 ERA (4.83 xERA) with a 5 year worst 23.6%/8.3% K%/BB% in 183.2 IP. His velocity is on a 5 year decline with it tanking to 92.6 MPH, and his 10.4% Barrel% is a career worst by far. Like I mentioned above, the Dodgers tried to work their magic, and while they did manage to bring his ERA down to 4.36 in 64 IP, they needed to kill his strikeout rate to do it with a 17.2% K%. He’ll be 37 years old about one month into the 2024 season, and his decline couldn’t be more clear cut, starting in 2022 and really hitting it’s stride in 2023. I do expect him to bounce back somewhat from his disaster season, and St. Louis is building a nursing home rotation of old, low velocity, pitch to contact pitchers, so maybe he can learn a thing or two about how to survive in your decline years, but his days of being a truly impact fantasy starter seem over. 2024 Projection: 10/4.27/1.31/158 in 165 IP

Sonny Gray STL, RHP, 34.5 – In Spring Training, Gray blamed his injury filled 2022 on not being prepared for the season due to the lockout, and he clearly wasn’t BS’ing with him throwing an 8 year high 184 IP in 2023. He put up a pitching line of 2.79/1.15/24.5%/7.3%. His whiff% bounced back in a major way with a 4.1 percentage point increase to 26%, and his velocity ticked back up 0.8 MPH to 92.9 MPH. St. Louis is clearly betting on him being able to keep it up as he enters his mid 30’s with a 3 year, $75 million contract, and I’m inclined to agree with them. 2024 Projection: 12/3.54/1.19/167 in 170 IP

Bullpen

Ryan Helsley STL, Closer, 29.9 – Helsley seems in line for the full time closer role in 2024, but the Cards always like to sneak Giovanny Gallegos in there too, so I would expect Gallegos to steal a few saves here and there. It won’t matter though, because Helsley is dominant enough to overcome a handful of saves shaved off the top with a 2.46 ERA and 35.6%/11.6% K%/BB% in 36.2 IP. He throws a 99.7 MPH fastball to go along with an elite slider (52.2% whiff%) and elite curve (.144 xwOBA). His control is spotty, but plenty of relievers thrive with similar control issues, and a forearm strain knocked him out almost 3 months mid-season, but he looked healthy when he returned. He’s not without risk, but the elite upside is worth it. 2024 Projection: 4/2.65/1.09/83/30 saves in 60 IP

St. Louis Cardinals Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects

1) Masyn Winn STL, SS, 22.0 – Winn’s 29 wRC+ in his 137 PA MLB Debut was the 4th worst mark in the league (130 PA min). If you want to look on the bright side, it could have been worse. He could have been Cam Gallagher with a negative 17. Winn earned that terrible wRC+ by hitting the ball very weakly with only 2 barrels in 101 batted balls, but surprisingly, nothing actually looks too concerning to me in the underlying numbers. An 86/91 MPH AVG/FB EV is honestly not that terrible of a starting point for a relatively skinny 21 year old, and his 87.6 MPH EV in the minors clearly shows he has the juice for more. He showed double plus speed with a 29.2 ft/sec sprint, he got the bat on the ball with a 19%/7.3% K%/BB%, and he didn’t have any groundball issues with a 12.8 degree launch. He also got unlucky with a .196 BABIP and a .211 wOBA vs. .250 xwOBA, so the bad debut looked worse than it actually was. We saw plenty of players with a similar profile thrive in 2023, and I want to stress again, his EV numbers really aren’t in the true danger zone. Everything the Cardinals brass has said this off-season leads me to believe Winn is locked in as their Opening Day starting SS. All signs point towards him being much much better in 2024. 2024 Projection: 72/13/59/.241/.309/.388/21 Prime Projection: 83/17/64/.268/.330/.421/28

2) Thomas Saggese STL, 2B/3B, 22.0 – Saggese broke out in 2022, but many, including me, stayed skeptical because he’s not a big tools guy and the K%/plate approach weren’t particularly great, but some guys are just ballers, and Saggese balled out even harder in 2023. He slashed .306/.374/.530 with 26 homers, 12 steals, and a 22.9%/8.3% K%/BB% in 139 games at mostly Double-A. The same drawbacks that made me hesitant in 2022 are still present. His raw power is only average to potentially above average, he’s not fast, the plate approach isn’t great, and he’s not a big guy at 5’11”. But at some point, it’s silly to keep doubting a guy who is producing to this level. He’s obviously doing something right. He doesn’t have a clear path to playing time and I would still hesitate to put big upside on him, but I’m willing to bet on him being a very good MLB hitter at peak. 2024 Projection: 18/5/23/.249/.308/.416/2 Prime Projection: 75/24/82/.266/.328/.444/8

3) Victor Scott STL, OF, 23.2 – “Scott and the Case of the Missing Stolen Base.” If you look at Fangraphs, Scott led the entire minor leagues with 95 steals. Chandler Simpson was 2nd at 94 and Jonatan Clase was 3rd at 79. But if you look at Baseball Reference and MiLB.com, Scott only tied for 1st with 94 steals. Hmmmm … we need to hire a private dick to investigate the missing stolen base and then turn it into a 30 for 30 documentary. Then we can hire another private dick to figure out why private detectives are called private dicks. As you can clearly see, Scott has double plus speed and elite base stealing ability. He also has a good feel to hit with above average contact rates. He started the year at High-A with a 117 wRC+ in 66 games, and then he proved the skills will transfer to the upper minors, slashing .323/.373/.450 with 7 homers, 45 steals, and a 14.5%/5.8% K%/BB% in 66 games. The power is below average and he had relatively high K rates in college, so there’s definitely a chance he is an Estuery Ruiz like one trick pony, but like Ruiz, that one trick is so elite he can still be an impact fantasy player. Unlike Ruiz, he’s actually in a real organization where he won’t just be handed playing time. It seems likely that he will break into the bigs as a speedy 4th outfielder, and then have to earn more playing time from there. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/14/54/.262/.322/.398/52

4) Tink Hence STL, RHP, 21.8 – Hence finally met his match when he made it to Double-A with a 5.47 ERA and 22.2%/9.2% K%/BB% in 54.1 IP. It’s not great to see the production back up so much in the upper minors, but he was very young for the level, and he was blowing past his career high IP (96 IP). He also pitched very well at High-A with a 2.81 ERA and 27.9%/7.3% K%/BB%, and most importantly, he still looks absolutely electric on the mound. The delivery is extremely athletic, the mid to upper 90’s fastball explodes out of his hand, and the change, slider and curve all have plus potential. He doesn’t have prototypical starter size, but I think that is overblown in his case. He still screams ace upside to me, and I would take advantage of the hit to his value in 2023. Pitcher development is especially non linear. I expect him to have a big year in 2024. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 13/3.55/1.18/181 in 168 IP

5) Tekoah Roby STL, RHP, 22.6 – Roby is getting a ton of helium this off-season, and while I most certainly like him, my money is still on Hence as the best pitching prospect in this system. Roby put up a 4.63 ERA with a 28.9%/6.3% K%/BB% in 58.1 IP at Double-A. He missed almost 3 months of the season with a shoulder injury, but he looked like fire when he returned, and he also impressed in the AFL despite a 5.93 ERA in 13.2 IP. The stuff backs up the production with a mid 90’s fastball, plus curve, and a potentially above average slider and change. He strikes me as a strong mid rotation type rather than a top of the rotation starter, and I think his relatively high home run rates and ERA bears that out. 2024 Projection: 2/4.28/1.33/48 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.86/1.24/175  in 170 IP

6) Chase Davis STL, OF, 22.4 – Selected 21st overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Davis went full Jacob Berry on us in his pro debut, and we saw Berry go from bad to worse in 2023. Davis’ pro debut was actually even worse than Berry’s with 0 homers, a 26% K% and .212 BA in 36 games at Single-A. It was good for a below average 91 wRC+ (Berry had a 118 wRC+). The most concerning thing was the lack of power with an 84.9 MPH EV. He also struggled to hit for power in the wood bat Cape Cod League in 2022 with 0 homers and a .629 OPS in 15 games. Those are scary numbers for a guy you are drafting for basically only his power. If you don’t want to put so much weight on the pro debut, Davis had a damn exciting junior year that got everyone excited going into the draft. He was a lefty power hitting beast who is a smooth operator in the box. I can honestly watch him crush homers all day. He cracked 21 homers in 57 Pac12 games this year. He’s not a particularly huge guy at 6’1”, but he’s a muscled up 216 pounds and the EV’s were legit in college. The swing is also very athletic, and he improved his hit tool this year (.362 BA with a 40/43 K/BB) after struggling with swing and miss in the past, but the struggles in pro ball show he still has a long way to go there too. I understand if you want to put more weight on the larger sample college production, but that would have been a mistake with Jacob Berry, and Davis seems to be headed down that same path. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 72/22/78/.242/.321/.437/7

7) Ivan Herrera STL, C, 23.10 – Herrera would rank higher on this list if he wasn’t blocked by Willson Contreras (under contract through 2027 at least), and I don’t think St. Louis will be particularly interested in trading him because depth is important and Contreras is getting up there in age. He dominated Triple-A, slashing .297/.451/.500 with 10 homers, 11 steals, and a 20.5%/20% K%/BB% in 83 games, and then he performed well in his cup of coffee in the majors with a 122 wRC+ and 91.3/100.4 MPH AVG/FB EV in 44 PA. He has the ability to be a complete hitter with an average to above average hit/power combo, but he might not get a full time job until 2028 barring trade (Contreras might be the more likely one to get traded) or injury. 2024 Projection: 23/4/18/.251/.328/.403/2 Prime Projection: 72/19/66/.268/.343/.432/6

8) Cooper Hjerpe STL, LHP, 23.0 – Hjerpe’s velocity did not tick up this year like many hoped with him sitting in the high 80’s to low 90’s. He has the type of hjerpe jerky, sidearm lefty delivery to make it work, but that is still dangerously low. He also didn’t have the most impressive pro debut from a statistical or injury standpoint. He put up a 3.51 ERA with a 29.8%/14.6% K%/BB% in 41 IP and missed 4 months of the season after undergoing surgery to get loose bodies removed from his elbow. Low velocity, poor control, and injury risk is not the 3 headed monster you are looking for. At this point, a #4 starter seems like a reasonable upside projection for him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/4.17/1.31/163 in 160 IP

9) Travis Honeyman STL, OF, 22.6 – Selected 90th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, the 6’2”, 190 pound Honeyman makes a ton of contact, hits the ball fairly hard, and has above average speed. That is a strong combination of skills, and it led to an excellent season in the ACC, slashing .304/.383/.534 with 6 homers, 10 steals, and a 11.5% 7.1% K%/BB% in 39 games. He’s never been a big home run hitter in college, but his frame definitely has room to add power, and he also hit 4 homers with a .930 OPS in 24 games in the wood bat Cape Cod League in 2022. I like Honeyman a lot, and he ranked 71st overall on the 2024 Top 130 First Year Player Draft Rankings. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/18/73/.264/.321/.422/17

10) Leonardo Bernal STL, C, 20.2 – Bernal’s game power is going to have to tick up to become an impact fantasy catcher with only 3 homers and a 28.9% FB% in 78 games at Single-A. He’s already pretty thick, so he’s going to have to make adjustments to unlock that power rather than it coming naturally with more strength. Everything else is there though with an advanced plate approach (17%/15.2% K%/BB%) and a potentially good glove behind the dish. I trust St. Louis to develop hitters like him, so he’s in a perfect organization. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 66/14/59/.267/.338/.412/3

Just Missed

11) Gordon Graceffo STL, RHP, 24.0

12) Zack Showalter STL, RHP, 20.2

13) Won-Bin Cho STL, OF, 20.7

14) Zach Levenson STL, OF, 22.1 

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Cincinnati signs Frankie Montas to a 1 year, $16 million contract

The Reds are my favorite team headed into 2024, and they are doing everything right this off-season. Montas is a great upside bet to make, and they already signed a safer arm in Nick Martinez earlier in the off-season. They are my favorite win total O/U bet on the MLB slate. I locked them in at over 80 wins when the lines came out one month ago and it has already increased to 82.5 (I told you guys back in October in the Reds Team Report that ” I’m salivating at what “Vegas” is going to set the Cincinnati Reds win total O/U at,” so I hope you got in early too). I still like them at over 82.5, and I like their +4000 World Series odds on Draft Kings a lot as well. The one problem is that with these signings, they might be apt to just hold onto their talented infield depth. Depth is extremely important for real life, and while it gives me yet another reason to love them in real life, it is a thorn in our fantasy sides. It sure feels like the odds of them making a trade has gone down, although I’m sure they are still listening in on offers. Regardless, India and CES owners need to start planning on them possibly not getting full time at bats.

Atlanta trades Vaughn Grissom to Boston for Chris Sale and $17 million 

Boston isn’t going to target Grissom in a 1 for 1 Chris Sale trade if they don’t have every intention of handing him the starting 2B job. This is a boon for Grissom’s dynasty value as he was stuck in no man’s land with Atlanta. Any value Emmanuel Valdez had is now gone, and Marcelo Mayer’s path to playing time gets a bit more complicated as well, but I wouldn’t get too hung up on that if you are a Mayer owner. As for Grissom, he’s a safety over upside bat with a plus hit tool and moderate power/speed combo. He should be a doubles machine in Fenway, wearing out the Green Monster. He just ranked 65th overall on my Top 161 Shortstop Dynasty Rankings (Patreon), but with this trade, I would fly him up the rankings to top 40 status. Sale’s value doesn’t change. He remains a reasonably priced target for a win now team.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE & EARLY ACCESS CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 275 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B–Top 161 SS
-TOP 130 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Arizona Diamondbacks–Baltimore Orioles (free)–Boston Red Sox (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Los Angeles Dodgers (free)–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Oakland Athletics–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Los Angeles Dodgers 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I like to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team, and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Los Angeles Dodgers 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100+ COMING SOON)
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Arizona Diamondbacks–Baltimore Orioles (free)–Boston Red Sox (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Oakland Athletics–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

The Tampa Bay Rays must subscribe to my Patreon, because I named Ryan Pepiot a Top 10 Early Off-Season Dynasty Baseball Target back on September 26th, and the Rays went out and got him for Tyler Glasnow. The Rays are an organization that almost has to trade their studs when they are in the last year of team control, especially an injury prone pitcher, but targeting Pepiot tells you everything you need to know about him. Like me, they think he can be a legitimate impact starter. This trade likely raises his profile too high to still get great value on him, but I also like targeting him at his fair value.

Pitchers

Emmet Sheehan LAD, RHP, 24.5 – Sheehan didn’t have a standout MLB debut with a 4.92 ERA and a 25.8%/10.5% K%/BB% in 60.1 IP, but some of the underlying data is extremely encouraging. Most notably, his 3 secondary pitches were absolutely devastating. The slider put up a .179 xwOBA with a 43.8% whiff%, the changeup put up a .200 xwOBA with a 47.6% whiff%, and the very lightly used sweeper put up a .161 xwOBA with a 41.2% whiff%. His heavily used 95.4 MPH fastball was solid as well with a respectable 20.2% whiff%. His 3.50 xERA looks much better than the surface stats, and he also closed the year out in dominant fashion with a 1.98 ERA and 24/4 K/BB in 13.2 IP over 3 outings. His control is below average, but it’s never really been in the major danger zone, so I wouldn’t downgrade him too much because of that. And how could you not trust the Dodgers to unlock his full potential in the long run. He showed no joke ace upside in his rookie year, and considering he currently has a NFBC ADP of 249, that tells me he isn’t getting nearly the respect he deserves this off-season. 2024 Projection: 9/3.72/1.23/158 in 145 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.52/1.18/210 in 175 IP

Bobby Miller LAD, RHP, 25.0 – Miller’s humongous stuff unsurprisingly transferred to the big leagues with a very strong rookie year. He put up a 3.76 ERA with a 23.6%/6.3% K%/BB% in 124.1 IP. He threw a 5 pitch mix and all of the pitches were good. The 99.1 MPH 4-seamer and 98.7 MPH sinker were both plus, and all 3 of his off-speed pitches missed bats (curve-36% whiff%/change-39.9%/slider-29.2% whiff%). He established a very high floor for himself. The 23.6% K% was modest, but the 6.3% BB% is very encouraging, and seeing the whiff rates on his secondaries tells me there could easily be more swing and miss in the tank. As opposed to Sheehan, Miller’s getting a ton of respect this off-season with a NFBC ADP of 81, so you’re probably one year too late if you are looking to buy him. He has top of the rotation upside and everyone knows it now. 2024 Projection: 12/3.52/1.18/165 in 160 IP

Hitters

James Outman LAD, OF, 26.10 – Outman has a plus power/speed combo with extreme hit tool risk, but I’m concerned the power/speed combo isn’t quite big enough to stick your neck out for considering the risk. He hit 23 homers with a 87.9/91.8 MPH AVG/FB EV, and he stole 16 bags in 567 PA. Good, but not great, and the swing and miss is in the danger zone with a 31.9% K% and 36.6% whiff%. He also struggles vs. lefties with a .665 OPS, giving him platoon risk. He’s a well above average defensive centerfielder, and he still got on base vs. lefties (.357 OBP), so the skills are there to play nearly everyday even if the BA dips. It was also only his rookie year and he managed a .248 BA (.228 xBA), so I’m certainly not down on him, but it’s the type of profile I would want to fall into my lap, rather than one I’m truly going after. 2024 Projection: 81/25/72/.239/.338/.440/15

Miguel Vargas LAD, 2B, 24.4 – It feels like eons ago since Miguel Vargas was considered a near elite prospect, but that was just last off-season. What scared everyone off is that he pulled a Gavin Lux on us with extremely underwhelming homer/steal totals (7 homers and 3 steals in 304 MLB PA), and he also only hit .195 despite a strong 20.1%/12.5% K%/BB%. He was then sent back down to the minors on July 8th and never saw the MLB field again. Vargas had his chance and failed to lock in a full time MLB role, and now he’s going to have to fight for his playing time. Betts is locked in at 2B, Muncy is at 3B, Freeman is at 1B, and Ohtani is at DH. He’s a bench bat until an injury happens or Muncy leaves in free agency after the 2024 season. Despite the poor rookie season, he still showed the skills to breakout in the future with his aforementioned strong plate approach, 16.6 degree launch, decent 6% Barrel%, and above average 27.9 ft/sec sprint. He crushed Triple-A again too. He’s just going to have to wait his turn to get another full time shot. 2024 Projection: 39/10/36/.251/.329/.418/7 Prime Projection: 84/24/79/.267/.346/.451/13

Bullpen

Evan Phillips LAD, Closer, 29.7 – Josh Hader is the only one who could rain on Phillips’ parade. The Dodgers seem like a very possible landing spot for Hader, and he would almost certainly slot directly into the full time closer role. That makes Phillips a bit risky to go after too hard until Hader officially signs somewhere, but if Phillips does keep the job, he is in at least the 2nd tier of closers. He took over LA’s undisputed closer role by late June, and he earned it with a 2.05 ERA and 28.2%/5.6% K%/BB% in 61.1 IP. He has an elite sweeper (.195 xwOBA with a 42.1% whiff%), a double plus 96.4 MPH fastball (.279 xwOBA with a 30.8% whiff%), a 95.5 MPH sinker that keeps the ball on the ground (negative 1 degree launch), and a solid 93.1 MPH cutter. It’s his 2nd year in a row of dominance, and his control is now in the near elite range. Just keep Hader away from him. 2024 Projection: 4/2.89/0.98/72/30 saves in 63 IP

Los Angeles Dodgers Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Josue De Paula LAD, OF, 18.10 – De Paula’s stateside debut wasn’t perfect, and it wasn’t the true explosion we were all hoping for, but it was still impressive when taking everything into account. The Dodgers showed how much they loved him by skipping him straight over stateside rookie ball, and he didn’t only hold his own against much older competition, his plate approach and hit tool were actually extremely mature with a 17.9%/13.5% K%/BB%, .284 BA, and 118 wRC+ in 74 games at Single-A. At a broad, athletic, and projectable 6’3”, 185 pounds with a sweet lefty swing, establishing this level of plate skills is relatively rare and exciting. Usually with these toolsy prospects we have to worry about the hit tool tanking them, but not with Josue. He hit only 2 homers, which is extremely low, so I’m not just going to hand wave it away, but he didn’t hit the ball particularly weakly, and he obviously made zero attempts to sell out for power. The raw power will certainly continue to tick up, which will make for a dangerous combination with his plate skills once it does. He’s not a burner, but he’s a good base runner with 14 steals in 17 attempts. Josue is taking the Juan Soto path, and the off-season after Soto’s 18 year old season were when the biggest trade mistakes were made with Soto (not saying he will be as good as Soto because Soto was even better in a shortened 18 year old season at Single-A). Stay patient on the explosion. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 88/24/81/.278/.352/.475/12

2) Joendry Vargas LAD, SS, 18.5 – Vargas is basically Josue De Paula 2.0. It’s almost like the Dodgers are especially good at this developing baseball players thing. He’s a projectable and athletic 6’4”, 175 pounds, earning him one of the top international signing bonuses last off-season, and he had a great season in the DSL, slashing .328/.423/.529 with 7 homers, 19 steals, and a 14.9%/14.4% K%/BB% in 48 games. All of the ingredients are there for him to explode to elite prospect status in the next few years with at least plus power potential, plus athleticism, and plus plate skills. Get in on him now before the mainstream prospect lists start blowing him up next season. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 81/26/86/.268/.341/.481/13

3) Gavin Stone LAD, RHP, 25.6 – Stone had a truly horrific MLB debut with a 9.00 ERA and 14.5%/8.6% K% in 31 IP, but I’m trying not to panic. We only have to look at Brandon Pfaadt to be reminded to keep our heads when a top pitching prospect gets demolished in their debut. Pfaadt is just one of many examples (Jose Berrios immediately comes to mind as well). If you’re looking for silver linings, his stuff did a solid job of missing bats with his changeup putting up a 41.4% whiff%, his slider putting up a 40% whiff%, and his 4-seamer putting up a 23.5% whiff%. His stuff didn’t even get hit insanely hard either with a merely below average 8.7% barrel%. It certainly wasn’t a good year with his fastball velocity taking a step back to 94 MPH, and he wasn’t great at Triple-A either with a 4.74 ERA in 100.2 IP, but I think the prudent thing to do is to look at this year as a developmental bump in the road, rather than a true disaster. His value takes a hit, but you certainly shouldn’t be close to throwing in the towel on him. 2024 Projection: 5/4.25/1.32/96 in 100 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.88/1.26/173 in 165 IP

4) Dalton Rushing LAD, C/1B, 23.1 – If Robo Umps come to the majors in the future, it will take framing away as a catcher skill, but blocking balls in the dirt and throwing out runners on the bases will still be super important, so I wouldn’t assume catcher defense will just be thrown to the curb. On that note, Rushing isn’t a particularly good defensive catcher, so it puts a lot of pressure on his bat to max out. He was far too advanced for High-A with a 146 wRC+ on the back of a .404 OBP in 89 games, as an advanced 22 year old college bat should be, but the 15 homers, .228 BA, and 24.4% K% aren’t quite as impressive. His numbers likely would have been better if he didn’t suffer a concussion from a getting hit by a backswing in June, but not sure that is necessarily a point in his favor for fantasy. Catchers take a beating, which is why you should generally downgrade them. The bat is good enough to profile in a 1B/DH/backup catcher role, but it just makes playing time tougher to come by and the leash much shorter. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/25/81/.253/.339/.458/2

5) Michael Busch LAD, 2B/3B, 26.4 – Ohtani locking down the DH spot is not great for Busch. He’s a poor defensive player who hits righties much better than lefties, so that DH spot was going to be his saving grace. Not anymore. He had a terrible MLB debut with a 49 wRC+ in 81 PA, and while there is some Quad-A slugger risk, he was utterly dominant at Triple-A (150 wRC+, 27 homers, 18.8%/13.9% K%/BB% in 98 games), so I wouldn’t panic too much over the debut. A trade would be the best thing for him, but LA could use a big bench bat, so I don’t think they are in any rush to move him. He’s stuck in opportunity limbo right now, and it might take until his late 20’s to lock in a near full time role. 2024 Projection: 21/7/25/.238/.321/.431/1 Prime Projection: 67/20/75/.251/.339/.467/3

6) Andy Pages LAD, OF, 23.4 – Out of sight, out of mind rules the prospect world, but Pages has the skills and opportunity to fight that instinct. He tore his labrum on a swing in mid May and missed the rest of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery. He was in the midst of having another excellent season (all he’s done in his career is have excellent seasons) with a 144 wRC+ in 33 games at Double-A. He has plus power with extremely low groundball rates (23.8%), and he combines that with a plus plate approach (22.5%/17.6% K%/BB%). He has some hit tool risk, especially with the extreme launch, but his strikeout rates have generally stayed out of the danger zone over his career. The Dodgers also don’t have much close to the majors OF depth with Outman, Jason Heyward, Chris Taylor, and Manuel Margot currently penciled into their OF slots. Pages can definitively kick the door down in 2024 assuming he returns to full health. 2024 Projection: 18/6/22/.223/.307/.431/2 Prime Projection: 82/28/84/.241/.335/.466/9

7) Eduardo Quintero LAD, OF, 18.7 – Quintero was one of the top DSL breakouts, and is arguably THE top DSL breakout with a 180 wRC+ that led all qualified age appropriate 17 year olds. He slashed .359/.472/.618 with 5 homers, 22 steals, and a 16%/15.1% K%/BB% in 49 games. He doesn’t have De Paula or Vargas’ obvious projectable size, but he’s not small at 6’0”, 175 pounds, and he’s an electric athlete with plus speed and at least above average power potential. DSL stats have to be taken with some level of restraint, so when I truly stick my neck out for a DSL breakout, they optimally have that prototypical size and pedigree, but if you aren’t as concerned with that, Quintero has a real case to be valued equally to, or even higher than Vargas. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 83/20/77/.265/.336/.448/22

8) Kyle Hurt LAD, RHP, 25.10 – All signs point towards LA deploying Hurt as a multi inning bullpen weapon in the near future. He reached 5 IP in only 4 of 26 upper minors outings, and he was already 25 years old for most of the 2023 season. His 92 IP this year was a career high. The profile also plays in shorter outings with below average control (11.3% BB%) of two plus to double plus pitches in his 95.5 MPH 4-seamer and 87.1 MPH changeup. It led to an insane 39.2% K%. He throws a decent slider and curve, so it’s not impossible for him to end up a starter, but neither misses a ton of bats. In shallower leagues, his likely middle innings role could make it hard to roster him, but in medium to deeper leagues, he’s good enough to make a real impact out of the bullpen, and he can certainly end up in the rotation if injuries open up a spot for him. 2024 Projection: 5/3.78/1.30/99 in 85 IP Prime Projection: 8/3.55/1.26/150 in 130 IP

9) Diego Cartaya LAD, C, 22.7 – Cartaya’s hit tool issues came to the forefront at Double-A with a .189 BA and 29%/9.2% K%/BB% in 93 games. A lot of that was back luck with a .216 BABIP, but it certainly wasn’t all bad luck. He was only 21 years old in the upper minors, so I would expect improvement in the future, but the hit tool is definitely a risk. The power isn’t a risk as the 6’3”, 220 slugger smacked 19 homers with a 31.6% GB%. Cartaya didn’t have the elite fantasy catcher explosion that we were hoping for in 2023, but his big power, low BA profile remains intact. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 64/26/72/.237/.321/.462/1

10) Thayron Liranzo LAD, C, 20.9 – Liranzo was one of the top breakout catcher prospects in 2023 on the back of at least double plus power. He slashed .272/.400/.562 with 24 homers and a 26.8%/16.7% K%/BB% in 94 games at Single-A. He’s a big boy at a thick 6’3” and he hits the ball tremendously hard from both sides of the plate (he’s better as a lefty). He’s not a great defensive catcher, the hit tool is still a risk, and LA is stacked at catcher up and down their organization, but Liranzo still seems underrated and underhyped to me considering the destruction he just laid in 2023. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 68/28/81/.242/.328/.464/3

11) Nick Frasso LAD, RHP, 25.6 – When everything is clicking, Frasso looks like a near ace at an athletic 6’5” with a deceptive righty delivery, fire stuff, and above average control. But everything isn’t always clicking for him as he ran extremely hot and cold this year, his stuff can be up and down, he’s been very injury prone in his career, and 93 IP was a career high by far (60 IP was previous career high in 2018). He throws a mid 90’s fastball with a plus slider and a changeup that flashes plus. It was good for a 3.77 ERA and 26.8%/7.8% K%/BB% in 93 IP at mostly Double-A. His ultimate role is still very much in the air, and in an organization that grows pitching prospects on trees and can sign/acquire high priced pitchers whenever they want, a bullpen role seems likely in the first couple years of his career. 2024 Projection: 3/4.39/1.34/58 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 9/3.91/1.28/150 in 140 IP

12) River Ryan LAD, RHP, 25.8 – Ryan’s numbers don’t exactly jump off the screen with a 3.90 ERA and 24.6%/10.3% K%/BB% in 104.1 IP at mostly Double-A, but his stuff most certainly does with a mid to upper 90’s fastball and plus slider leading the way. He also throws a curve and changeup that both have plus potential. He has a repeatable and athletic righty delivery at 6’2”, 195 pounds, and he doesn’t have a ton of experience starting, so there might be more upside in here than your typical 25 year old. A mid-rotation starter is probably his most reasonable upside projection, but he has a bit more upside than your typical “mid-rotation upside” starter. 2024 Projection: 2/4.48/1.35/54 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.95/1.28/150 in 150 IP

13) Hyun-Seok Jang LAD, RHP, 20.0 – When the Dodgers aggressively go after somebody (they made a trade for international moola right before signing Jang), you take notice, and you also jump aboard knowing how good they are at development. The 6’4”, 200 pound Jang was expected to be the #1 overall pick in the Korea League Draft before signing with LA, and after watching every video I could find of him, it’s very easy to see why. His stuff is genuinely explosive with a plus to double plus 4 pitch mix. He throws a mid 90’s fastball that rockets out of his hand, a knee buckling curve that looks like it could be double plus, a plus slider, and a potentially plus change. He is also way mature beyond his years on the mound with an athletic delivery and good control. I think he has legit ace upside and isn’t going to be ranked even close to where he deserves to be. Go after Jang hard in first year player drafts, and I’m tempted to go even higher on him, but you likely won’t have to reach too far to grab him in your drafts  based on his current hype. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 13/3.56/1.18/185 in 170 IP

14) Kendall George LAD, OF, 19.5 – Selected 36th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, George is a pure speed play. He has 80 grade speed with legitimately elite run times. He also makes a ton of contact and is a plus defensive centerfielder. That profile will play on the major league level, and it certainly played in the lower minors, slashing .370/.458/.420 with 0 homers, 17 steals, and a 20/17 K/BB in 28 games split between rookie and Single-A. He has below average power with extremely high groundball rates, and while it does project to tick up from here, it’s not expected to be a major part of his game. He’s the high school version of Enrique Bradfield. . ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 84/10/52/.284/.348/.390/41

15) Trey Sweeney LAD, SS, 23.11 – The ingredients seem to be in here for a legit breakout, which is obviously part of the reason LA traded for him. Sweeney has a plus plate approach (19.1%/13.8% K%/BB%), good raw power at 6’2”, 212 pounds, low groundball rates (32.9% GB%), and while he’s not a burner, he clearly has some base stealing skills (20 steals). He’s also a decent defensive SS. It was good for a 118 wRC+ in 100 games at Double-A. He hasn’t been able to fully tap into his raw power yet with only 13 homers and a very low hard hit rate. The lack of squaring up the baseball has also led to a mediocre BA (.252 BA). He also struggled mightily vs lefties with a .560 OPS. The Dodgers organizational SS depth is surprisingly weak right now, so Sweeney immediately becomes their 2nd best long term SS option behind Gavin Lux. He might never be anything but a below average MLB hitter, but the move to LA gives him both a developmental and opportunity bump. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 68/18/62/.248/.324/.429/11

16) Jake Gelof LAD, 3B, 22.1 – Selected 60th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Gelof has the baseball bloodlines with his older brother, Zack, breaking out in the majors this year. Jake is a thick 6’1”, 200 pounds with a powerful righty swing that is made to hit dingers. He popped 21 homers in 2022 and then followed that up with a 23 homer season in 2023. That continued in pro ball with him cracking 6 homers in 30 games at mostly Single-A. It might not be truly elite power, but it’s easy plus power. He has below average speed, and there is hit tool risk too which already reared it’s ugly head with a .225 BA and 29.9 K% at Single-A, but we’ve seen the Gelof’s thrive with high K rates (hello, Zack) You are buying the power here, and after getting drafted by the Dodgers, you are also buying the great developmental organization. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 74/27/83/.243/.326/.468/6

Just Missed

16) Payton Martin LAD, RHP, 19.10

17) Justin Wrobleski LAD, LHP, 23.8

18) Jose Ramos LAD, OF, 23.3

19) Jeral Perez LAD, 2B/3B/SS, 19.5 – Perez’ destruction of rookie ball (11 homers with a 120 wRC+ in 53 games) earned him a promotion to Single-A where he more than held his own with a 118 wRC+ and 22.2%/18.5% K%/BB% in 7 games. He doesn’t necessarily jump off the screen with a thick and stocky build, and he’s not a huge tools guy, but he’s done nothing but produce at every level, including the DSL in 2022 (130 wRC+). He has a mature plate approach, he lifts the ball, and he’s in a great organization, so he should be able to get the most of his talent. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 66/19/74/.245/.323/.430/8

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Arizona Diamondbacks–Baltimore Orioles (free)–Boston Red Sox (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Oakland Athletics–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: TOP 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100+ COMING SOON)
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Boston Red Sox 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I like to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team, and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Boston Red Sox 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: TOP 76 C//TOP 98 1B
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100+ COMING SOON)
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Baltimore Orioles (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

Pitchers

Kutter Crawford BOS, RHP, 28.0 – I told you guys to put a star next to Justin Steele’s name as you were filling out the middle to back half of your fantasy rotation last off-season, and I’m going to tell you to do the same with Kutter Crawford this off-season. He shares some similarities which made me like Steele last off-season, but they aren’t really direct comps. Crawford’s control jumped to above average levels with a 6.8% BB%, and it allowed his 93.6 MPH fastball (.268 xwOBA with a 26% whiff%) and 88.6 MPH cutter (.295 xwOBA with a 24.2% whiff%) to play as plus pitches. He throws a legit 6 pitch mix with his sweeper, splitter, and slider thriving in limited usage. It all led to a 4.04 ERA (3.25 xERA) with a 25.6% K% in 129.1 IP. The floor is pretty high, and he has some very real upside. I really, really like Kutter as a very reasonably priced target. 2024 Projection: 11/3.73/1.22/159 in 155 IP

Brayan Bello BOS, RHP, 24.10 – The good news is that Bello improved one of his biggest weaknesses, bringing his BB% down 3.4 percentage points to a well above average 6.7%, but the bad news is that basically everything else took a half step back. The velocity dropped 1.3 MPH to 95 MPH, the barrel% rose 1.6 percentage points to 7%, and the whiff% dropped 1.6 percentage points to 24.4%. It resulted in a good, but unexciting fantasy season with a 4.24 ERA and 19.8% K% in 157 IP. The floor is high with his ability to keep the ball on the ground (56.2% GB%), the stuff is still big, and the changeup is still plus with a .219 xwOBA and 38.7% whiff%, but the upside is lacking with the mediocre K rates. He was major buy for me last off-season, and everything I liked him about then, I still like about him now (plus the improved control), so he’s an easy hold for me this off-season. 2024 Projection: 11/3.94/1.28/150 in 165 IP

Chris Sale BOS, LHP, 35.0 – Sale was a bit rusty coming off a completely lost and chaotic 2022 season with a 8.22 ERA in his first 23 IP, but he performed like a true ace after that with a 3.16 ERA and 30.2%/6.0% K%/BB% in 79.2 IP. He can clearly still be an impact fantasy starter, but there are enough indications that what he did in those final 79.2 IP shouldn’t be expected over a full season. He missed over 2 months during that stretch with shoulder inflammation, and while he performed well afterwards, the velocity was spotty and shoulder injuries are scary. He hasn’t thrown a legitimate starter’s workload since 2019 (147.1 IP). And the stuff isn’t quite as good as his prime with his heavily used 4-seamer hitting a career worst .320 xwOBA and 23.4% whiff%. All of those negatives seem to already be factored into his price though with a NFBC ADP of 179, and his advanced age is sure to keep his price down in dynasty too, so he still makes for a very reasonable buy target for a win now team. 2024 Projection: 10/3.57/1.14/170 in 140 IP

Hitters

Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 24.3 – Casas has the potential to become one of the next great all around 1B mashers, and we saw what that could look like in the 2nd half of 2023. He slashed .317/.417/.617 with 15 homers and a 23.4%/14.2% K%/BB% in his final 54 games. He smashes the ball with a 91.1/95.2 MPH AVG/FB EV, he lifts the ball with a 15.7 degree launch, he hit lefties well with a .817 OPS, he has no contact issues, and he’s an OBP beast. His .371 xwOBA was in the top 8% of the league, and that includes his slow start. He also hits in a great ballpark. The 1B position is starting to age a bit with Votto, Goldy, and Freeman all getting up there, and I think Casas has the upside to be in the next generation of greats to take their place. I don’t think he will get quite the respect he deserves this off-season. 2024 Projection: 93/32/94/.273/.375/.520/1

Jarren Duran BOS, OF, 27.7 – Ceddanne Rafaela is pretty clearly Boston’s starting CF of the future, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a path to playing time for Duran both in the short term and long term. Rafaela hasn’t established himself yet, Alex Verdugo is in his final year of team control with trade rumors already swirling around him, Masataka Yoshida looks like he’ll be doing a lot of DH’ing, and the unproven Wilyer Abreu (who I like) is penciled into one of the OF spots. That leaves plenty of avenues for playing time for Duran even if Boston brings in a free agent or two, and he has the type of fantasy profile to go after. His hit tool took a big step forward in 2023 with a 24.9% K% (28.3% in 2022), and it was even better in the 2nd half with a 17.6% K% in his final 142 PA. The contact improvements allowed his double plus speed (29.5 ft/sec sprint with 24 steals in 102 games) and at least above average raw power (89.9 MPH EV with 8 homers and a .295 BA) to shine. He was definitely on the lucky side with a .266 xBA, but luck is the residue of design, and when you hit the ball hard with his kind of speed, good things happen. His season ended in late August with a toe injury that required surgery, but he should be good to go for 2024, and I would use any job/injury uncertainty to your advantage this off-season. 2024 Projection: 78/16/69/.264/.329/.428/29

Bullpen

Kenley Jansen BOS, Closer, 36.6 – Jensen is certainly passed his prime with career worsts in K% (27.7%), EV against (89.9 MPH), xFIP (4.61), and xERA (3.16), but he’s far from washed up. His velocity jumped two ticks to near career highs with a 94.3 MPH cutter, and the slider is still plus with a 37.5% whiff%. The days of him putting up a 1.32 ERA with a 42.2%/2.7% K%/BB% are over, but a low 3’s ERA with a 30%/9%% K%/BB% is still well within reach. 2024 Projection: 4/3.39/1.15/79/34 saves in 62 IP

Boston Red Sox Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Roman Anthony BOS, OF, 19.11 – I ended Anthony’s 2023 Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “There is a lot of refinement needed, but this is a high upside bat who could explode up rankings if everything comes together.” … well, everything came together and Anthony exploded up rankings, slashing .272/.403/.466 with 14 homers, 16 steals, and a 24.2%/17.5% K%/BB% in 106 games at mostly Single-A (109 wRC+) and High-A (164 wRC+). It was a little concerning that the K% jumped to 30.6% at High-A, but then he closed out the season at Double-A and had a 185 wRC+ with a 13.6%/18.2% K%/BB% in 10 games. And he did all this starting the season as an 18 year old. He’s an elite athlete at 6’2”, 200 pounds with a plus power/speed combo, powerful lefty swing, and a mature plate approach. He’s not a completely finished product yet as he’s not great at lifting the ball with an under 25% Flyball%, and he wasn’t a great base stealer with 16 steals in 23 attempts, but he hits the ball so hard he can survive without a huge launch, and he has time to refine his base stealing skills as well, so neither are major concerns. He’s on a short list to be the #1 overall prospect in baseball by this time next year. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 96/25/88/.273/.358/.472/16

2) Marcelo Mayer BOS, SS, 21.4 – Mayer feels like he’s getting a bit of the treatment Noelvi Marte got last year. He was on a beeline for elite prospect status until there was an abrupt, general cooling on him throughout the industry, but like with Marte, I’m not sure it’s warranted. That sweet and vicious lefty swing obliterated the age appropriate High-A, slashing .290/.366/.524 with 7 homers, 5 steals, and a 22.%/10.4% K%/BB% in 35 games. He scuffled when he got to Double-A with a 63 wRC+, but there are multiple reasons to not get scared off by that. He was very young for the level, he was battling though a shoulder injury that eventually ended his season, and a .220 BABIP was really the biggest issue as 6 homers with a 25.8% K% in 43 games isn’t bad at all. He’s not that fast, but he’s a good enough base stealer to nab a handful of bags, and the strikeout rates have been higher than optimal, but the has the type of swing that can hit for both average and power even with a slightly higher strikeout rate. There are also only improvements coming from here. He’s right on track to become one of the better complete hitters in the game, especially hitting in Fenway. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 91/27/93/.272/.351/.484/9

3) Ceddanne Rafaela BOS, OF, 23.6 – Rafaela’s MLB debut was rough with a 74 wRC+, .238 xwOBA and 85.5 MPH EV in 89 PA, which fanned the flames of concern that he is too small (5’8″) to excel at the highest levels, but I’m using it as a buying opportunity. His floor is very high with at least plus CF defense and plus speed (39 steals and a 28.7 ft/sec sprint). He’s always had a good feel to hit (21.9% K% at Triple-A), he hit the ball hard in the upper minors with a 89.1 MPH EV, and he’s never had any groundball issues. He has a poor plate approach with a low BB% (5.5%) and high chase rates, but I don’t think that will hold him back while he’s in his physical prime. Cedric Mullins with a tick worse plate approach is the comp. 2024 Projection: 47/10/38/.245/.302/.401/15 Prime Projection:  87/18/68/.261/.318/.422/31

4) Kyle Teel BOS, C, 22.1 – Selected 14th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Teel is a better real life prospect than fantasy prospect like most prospect catchers. He has a hit over power profile, slashing .407/.475/.655 with 13 homers, 5 steals, and a 36/32 K/BB in 65 ACC games. He backed up that profile in pro ball, slashing .363/.483/.495 with 2 homers, 3 steals, and a 19.3%/18.4% K%/BB% in 26 games split between 3 levels (rookie, High-A, Double-A). He’s a good athlete, so he could nab a few bases which is nice for a catcher, and he immediately becomes Boston’s best catcher prospect, so he could move relatively fast through the system. Fenway is a great hitter’s park too which should help his profile play up. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/16/71/.281/.352/.433/8

5) Blaze Jordan BOS, 3B/1B, 21.3 – Blaze is one of those prospects where every time I fly him up rankings in early rankings drafts, I get cold feet after looking them over a few times because he isn’t a good defensive player, he hits lefties much better than righties, and he’s yet to truly show that prodigious power he was known for as an amateur. But then I move him too far down the rankings, and get FOMO when I think about a 20 year old with big raw power, great contact rates, and great production. He slashed .324/.385/.533 with 12 homers and a 14.6%/8.7% K%/BB% in 73 games at High-A. It was good for a 145 wRC+. He then went to Double-A and hit 6 homers with a 13.8% K% in 49 games. He can look a bit stiff at the plate, but he’s talked about losing weight and working on his body this off-season, which will only help him both offensively and defensively at a very strong 6’2”, 220 pounds. As a pure bat, there is a lot to love, and if he can improve defensively this off-season, it would make prospect rankers feel a lot more comfortable about him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 75/25/84/.269/.332/.465/3

6) Wilyer Abreu BOS, OF, 24.10 – I had a lot of in-season Target article hits this year, ringing the five alarm bell on a bunch of guys right at the first sign of a sprouting breakout and before they were even close to getting the respect they deserved (Nolan Jones and Zack Gelof, among others, were my best calls), but my favorite call was probably the one I made on Wilyer Abreu. Here is what I wrote about Abreu on August 3rd, “ This one is probably more for my deep leaguers out there, but there is something I really love about Abreu that I just can’t shake. And that something is probably his sweet, sweet lefty swing. It’s resulted in 14 homers with a 89.6 MPH EV in 71 games at Triple-A. It also comes with a solid 22.3%/16% K%/BB% and a cannon for an arm in rightfield. I don’t think he is going to be a league winner, but I think he has a chance to be a rock solid MLB player.” … From that point forward, Abreu went absolutely bonkos, hitting 8 homers in just 15 games at Triple-A, and then earning a call up to the majors where he put up a ridiculous 135 wRC+ in 85 PA. It’s almost like I had a crystal ball on that one. He continued to hit the ball hard in the majors with a 91.3 MPH EV, he likes to run with 3 steals (8 steals at AAA), and the plate approach was solid with a 27.1%/10.6% K%/BB%. I still think he’s more of an impact player for medium to deeper leagues rather than shallow leagues, but he more than proved he can be a good big leaguer in the long run. 2024 Projection: 47/14/54/.242/.319/.423/6 Prime Projection: 76/24/82/.257/.338/.453/9

7) Miguel Bleis BOS, OF, 20.1 – Bleis was the anti-Junior Caminero in 2023. Everyone wants to know which prospects can blow up from outside Top 50’s into elite prospect range, and Bleis and Caminero were both popular picks to do that this year. Caminero obviously fulfilled that elite prospect destiny, while Bleis completely imploded in on himself. He struggled hard at Single-A with 1 homer, 11 steals, a 26.8%/7.0% K%/BB%, and 71 wRC+ in 31 games, and then his season ended on May 30th with a shoulder injury that required surgery. The superstar traits are still there with a lightning quick swing, projectable power, and plus speed, but he didn’t seem all that close to putting it together in 2023, and the shoulder injury adds further risk. He’s not an overtly imposing presence at a skinny 6 feet, so he needs to tack on more muscle to reach his power potential, and the plate approach is below average. He can still obviously reach his elite prospect potential, but every year he doesn’t do it, the odds of it happening get a little lower. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection:  75/22/77/.255/.322/.438/24

8) Yordanny Monegro BOS, RHP, 21.5 – Monegro is a projectable 6’4”, 180 pounds with nasty stuff and a starter’s pitch mix. He throws a mid 90’s fastball with good movement, to go along with 2 plus breaking balls that he has full confidence in and will throw in any count, both in and out of the zone. He also mixes in a decent a changeup. He was too much for the lower minors with a 2.06 ERA and 34.6%/9.7% K%/BB% in 65.2 IP at rookie ball, Single-A, and High-A. He doesn’t have pinpoint control, but he’s not majorly wild either. Boston has a bunch of arms with similar value to Monegro, but I like his combination of upside and likelihood of sticking as a starter the most. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/3.93/1.31/160 in 155 IP

9) Nick Yorke BOS, 2B, 22.0 – A 24.1% K% and .268 BA at Double-A isn’t exactly super encouraging for a player who you are mostly buying for the hit tool. There also isn’t a clear path to playing time with Story under contract through 2027, Marcelo Mayer very likely ahead of him on the depth chart, and many others with similar skillsets to Yorke in the organization as well. And to top it all off, he isn’t a particularly good defensive player. But Yorke showed a good enough all around collection of skills/tools to stick with him. He hit 13 homers with 18 steals, a 10.1% BB% and 116 wRC+ in 110 games as a barely 21 year old in the upper minors. The Sox took him 17th overall in 2020, and when a team invests so much into a player, they usually want to give him every opportunity to succeed. His perceived name value is probably greater than his actual value, but he can still be a solid all around contributor at peak. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/18/71/.267/.332/.426/14

10) Wikelman Gonzalez BOS, RHP, 22.0 – There is no doubt that Gonzalez has fire stuff with a nightmare mid to upper 90’s fastball that gets a ton of whiffs to go along with a plus breaking ball and a solid changeup. It led to a 3.96 ERA with a 35.2% K% in 111.1 IP at High-A and Double-A. The problem is that his control is in the major danger zone with a 14.7% BB%. He can survive with below average control, but he needs to improve to even reach below average, so his most likely role will be out of the bullpen. It’s closer type stuff though. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 4/3.45/1.22/81/25 saves in 65 IP

Just Missed

11) Chase Meidroth BOS, 3B/2B, 22.8

12) Brainer Bonaci BOS, SS/2B, 21.9

13) Yoelin Cespedes BOS, SS, 18.7

14) Nazzan Zanetello BOS, SS, 18.10

15) Luis Perales BOS, RHP, 21.0

16) Angel Bastardo BOS, RHP, 21.9

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Jumping off from the Miguel Bleis blurb, every dynasty owner wants that shooting star prospect who “came out of nowhere,” but I would be careful about building your system with 100% of these players. Bleis is the dark side of that strategy, and before you know it, you could have an entire farm system full of nearly worthless prospects who showed glimpses in the DSL or rookie ball a few years ago, while your competition rosters and graduates the Matt McLain’s and Spencer Steer’s of the world. Of course you want a nice percentage of pure young upside, but make you sure you are dipping into other buckets of prospects as well to diversify your risk. And you don’t have to always forgo upside to do it with the Blake Dunn’s of the world available for reasonable prices (I’m not intentionally only naming Cincinnati players, hah).

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Baltimore Orioles (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: TOP 76 C//TOP 98 1B
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100+ COMING SOON)
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Chicago Cubs 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I like to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team, and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Chicago Cubs 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 137 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: TOP 78 C
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100+ COMING LATER IN THE OFF-SEASON)
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Baltimore Orioles (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

Hitters

Cody Bellinger FRA, OF/1B, 28.9 – Bellinger massively improved his contact rates with a career best 15.6% K% (27.3% in 2022) and career best 20.1% whiff% (27.2% in 2022). It led to a major bounce back season, slashing .307/.356/.525 with 26 homers, 20 steals, and a 15.6%/7.2% K%/BB% in 130 games. It wasn’t only the improved contact rates, he should also thank MLB for the juicier balls as his lowly 91 MPH FB/LD EV with a 17.2 degree launch likely wouldn’t have gotten the job done in 2022 with the dead balls. His 20 steals were a career high (thank you new rules) and his .319 BABIP was a career high (thank you no shift). Was Bellinger on the rules committee this off-season? He was certainly on the lucky side with a .370 wOBA vs. .331 xwOBA, but as long as the ball (see strategy section below) and rules stay the same, his contact/speed/lift profile should provide very nice fantasy numbers. 2024 Projection: 84/28/91/.268/.327/.470/17

Christopher Morel CHC, OF, 24.10 – I was hyping up Morel in these here Imaginary pages at this time last year, ranking him 189th on the 2023 Top 1,000, and while you are still probably unsure what to think of him one year later, you have to be relatively satisfied at what he provided your fantasy team considering his very reasonable cost. He jacked 26 homers with 6 steals and a .247 BA in 107 games. It was good for a 119 wRC+ and a full-season pace of about 35+ homers and 10 steals. He absolutely pummeled the ball with a 92.1/97.1 MPH AVG/FB EV, he has plus speed with a 28.6 ft/sec sprint (although he didn’t run as much as I thought he would), and he has average walk rates with a 8.4% BB%. But the reason we are still unsure of him, is because he didn’t improve enough on his two biggest weaknesses, contact and defense. He still had a cover your eyes 37% whiff% with a 31% K%, and he was a terrible defender with a negative 12.9 Fangraphs defensive value. Chicago announced they were going to try him at 1B this off-season, but at this point, DH is his most likely “position.” I still love the fantasy upside, and am encouraged that he managed a solid 22% K% to close out the season in September, but mostly because of the playing time concerns, I have to admit I’m not quite as high on him this off-season as I was last off-season. The moves Chicago makes this off-season could swing his playing time projections in either direction. 2024 Projection: 68/25/76/.241/.316/.478/10

Pitchers

Justin Steele CHC, LHP, 28.9 – Steele worries me a little. He’s a two pitch pitcher and neither pitch is really dominant. The fastball sits only 91.8 MPH and it put up a solid but unspectacular .326 xwOBA and 20.3% whiff%. The slider put up a pretty mediocre 31.1% whiff%, and while it induced weak contact with a 86.6 MPH EV against, I prefer my sliders to miss bats. His control took a monster step forward with a 5% BB%, but he’s never shown that level of control in the past, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see that regress a bit in 2024. His ERA was also much better in the 1st half (2.56) than the 2nd half (3.62). I say all of this just to add some caution, because not only do I still like him, I was actually lightly touting him last off-season, writing in his Top 1,000 blurb, “Steele’s the type you put a star next to their name as you start to fill out of the back half of your fantasy rotation.” He induces weak contact, he keeps the ball in the ballpark, he has about average whiff rates, and his control took a big step forward. He’s a good pitcher, just don’t be surprised if he ends up more above average than truly standout in 2024. 2024 Projection: 13/3.62/1.21/175 in 170 IP

Jordan Wicks CHC, LHP, 24.7 – This section is usually reserved for non prospects, but because Wicks didn’t crack the Top 10 and he’s one of Chicago’s most interesting pitchers, I decided to break the rules and include him here. I’m a rebel that can’t be tamed. Wicks is the type of safety over upside prospect that is more valuable in deeper leagues, but it’s not like there are no skills to get excited about. He understands the art of pitching with a 6 pitch mix, he has a legitimate plus offering in his changeup, and he keeps the ball on the ground with 3 of his pitches generating negative launch angles (sinker, cutter, curve). He had a 3.55 ERA with a 26.5%/8.6% K%/BB% in 91.1 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A, and then he held his own in the majors with a 4.41 ERA (4.18 xERA) and 16.3%/7.5% K%/BB% in 34.2 IP.  It’s likely #4 starter upside with only 92.1 MPH heat and average control, but he’s worth a spot in the back of your fantasy rotation even in shallower leagues. 2024 Projection: 9/4.22/1.31/136 in 150 IP

Bullpen

Adbert Alzolay CHC, Closer, 29.1 – Alzolay took over Chicago’s closer job in mid June and he never gave it back. He put up a 2.67 ERA with a 26.5%/5.1% K%/BB% and 22 saves in 64 IP on the season. He leads with the plus slider which he threw 45.1% of the time and put up a 40.6% whiff% on the pitch. He backs that up with 3 different fastballs (95.3 MPH 4-seamer, 95.3 MPH sinker, 91.1 MPH cutter). He got shut down for 3 weeks in September with a forearm injury, but he returned for one outing on September 29th and his velocity was fine, so I wouldn’t be concerned. The modest strikeout rate has him sitting in the 3rd tier of closers (there are so many stud closers), but his elite control should mitigate that with a strong WHIP, and there is potentially more K’s in the tank. 2024 Projection: 3/3.36/1.09/71/30 saves in 65 IP

Chicago Cubs Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 22.0 – I’ve been all in on Pete Crow since before he was drafted, and he finally fulfilled his elite prospect destiny in 2023. The power took yet another step forward with him jacking 20 homers in 107 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s not an EV masher, but he doesn’t hit the ball weakly either, and his high launch will ensure he gets the most out of his still growing raw power. The CF defense and speed are elite with a 29.9 ft/sec sprint speed and 37 steals. There is bit more swing and miss than optimal with a 26% K%, but he’s always generally had a good feel to hit, and he’s never had low BA’s in the minors, so I’m not overly concerned about it. Armstrong has 20/40 written all over him. 2024 Projection: 49/11/36/.241/.310/.407/23 Prime Projection: 91/22/76/.257/.334/.439/34

2) Matt Shaw CHC, 2B/SS, 22.5 – Selected 13th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Shaw is only 5’11”, but he’s a thick dude who has real power, and he combines that with above average speed and excellent base stealing skills. He has that little man leg kick (which Chicago toned down a hair in pro ball) that I absolutely love in the mold of a Alex Bregman, Spencer Steer, and Zach Neto. It seems to be working for these slightly undersized guys, and it’s certainly working for Shaw. He smashed 24 homers with 18 steals and a 1.142 OPS in 62 Big Ten games. He also impressed in the wood bat Cape Cod League with 5 homers, 21 steals, and a 1.006 OPS in 36 games. He then ran through pro ball like it was nothing, finishing the year at Double-A slashing .292/.329/.523 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 17.1%/4.3% K%/BB% in 15 games at the level. Shaw was my top draft target pre-draft (I actually pointed out Shaw as my top target back in February before the season even started), but now that he absolutely blew up in pro ball, there is no chance you get a great value on him. He’s worth his very high draft price though. 2024 Projection: 36/10/43/.253/.312/.432/11 Prime Projection: 85/25/89/.271/.337/.469/21

3) Cade Horton CHC, RHP, 22.7 – Horton was a star quarterback in high school, and his pithing delivery very much looks like he’s throwing a football with a short arm action thrown from around his ear. That type of arm action tends to produce good spin rates, and Horton can mostly certainly spin a potentially double slider that falls completely off the table. The plus fastball has good movement too and sits mid 90’s. He also mixes in a changeup and curveball that have above average potential. He used that plus stuff to obliterate pro ball in his debut with a 2.65 ERA and 33.5%/7.7% K%/BB% in 88.1 IP split between 3 levels (A, A+, AA). The K/BB numbers dropped a bit when he got to Double-A with a 28.4%/10.1% K%/BB% in 27 IP, but he still crushed the level with a 1.33 ERA. He only averaged around 4 inning outings and Chicago was very careful with him in general as this was truly his first fully healthy season coming off Tommy John surgery in 2021. He still has to prove he can handle a full MLB starter’s workload while maintaining his stuff and staying healthy, but he’s on the right track to doing that. I would put high end #2 starter upside on him. 2024 Projection: 2/3.95/1.31/42 in 40 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.48/1.17/178 in 160 IP

4) Kevin Alcantara CHC, OF, 21.8 – If you want to invest in one of those unicorn baseball talents in the mold of a Elly De La Cruz and James Wood, but don’t want to pay unicorn prices, Alcantara is the guy for you. He’s an elite athlete at 6’6”, 188 pounds with a plus power/speed combo and blink of an eye bat speed. He scuffled to start the season with a .604 OPS in his first 35 games, but he was en fuego after that, slashing .329/.401/.549 with 11 homers, 5 steals, and a 23.9%/10.7% K%/BB% in his final 71 games at mostly High-A. He closed out the regular season at Double-A where he put up a 130 wRC+ in 5 games, and then went to the AFL where he put up a .865 OPS in 21 games. The hit tool and plate approach still need continued refinement, but prospect rankers seem far too hesitant on shooting such a uniquely talented player up rankings. He should be in unanimous near elite prospect range, and he mostly sits in good but not great prospect range. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 80/26/85/.257/.333/.467/16

5) Owen Caissie CHC, OF, 21.9 – Chicago continued to be aggressive with Caissie’s assignments, sending the 20 year old to Double-A, which usually tells you what an organization thinks about a player. They love Caissie, and he rewarded their love with a monster season. He stared the Southern League pre-tacked ball in the eye and didn’t blink with a 144 wRC+, .918 OPS, and 22 homers in 120 games. Well, maybe he blinked, as the 33.9% K% in the 1st half was much higher than his 27.7% K% in the 2nd half. It got all the way down to 21.7% in his final 21 games, and considering how young he was for the level, I wouldn’t be extra concerned about his hit tool any more than your average high walk rate (14.4% K%), low BA slugger. The raw power is monstrous and he’s a relatively good athlete too. He’s one of the premier power hitting prospects in baseball. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 82/31/92/.248/.339/.492/5

6) Ben Brown CHC, RHP, 24.7 – If you can buy low on Brown’s 5.33 ERA and 15.8% BB% in 72.2 IP at Triple-A I would be all over it. He had a 7.8% BB% in 20 IP at Double-A to start the year, and he had a 9.5% BB% at Double-A last year, so the Triple-A automated strike zone made his merely below average control look cartoonishly bad. He has legitimate top of the rotation stuff with 3 potentially plus pitches (mid 90’s fastball, curveball, slider) and all of them can look pretty damn similar until they get about halfway to the plate. He’s a nightmare to face at 6’6”, 210 pounds and it resulted in a 32.6% K% on the season in 92.2 IP. He missed all of August with a lat injury, and he pitched out of the bullpen when he returned in September, which does hint at some bullpen risk, but I’m looking at Chicago’s rotation, and they would be silly to not give this stud every chance to stick in the rotation. I really, really like Brown. 2024 Projection: 4/4.18/1.35/83 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.82/1.27/175 in 150 IP

7) Moises Ballesteros CHC, C, 20.4 – Here is what I wrote about Bellesteros, in part, on my 2023 Top 1,000, “Most of the 2022 catcher breakouts are getting the full hype treatment, but Ballesteros is just chillin in corner waiting to get his fair due … The other catcher breakouts overshadowing Ballesteros’ impressive season creates a buying opportunity, making him one of my top prospect catcher targets for 2023.” … I would call Ballesteros’ great 2023 season a breakout, but he already broke out in 2022, so all the hype on him this year is just other people starting to notice. He destroyed the age appropriate Single-A with a 142 wRC+ and then went to High-A and put up a 128 wRC+. He did it on the back of a plus plate approach (15.8%/12.8% K%/BB%) and above average power (14 homers). The profile might be a tad better for real life than fantasy, and he’s starting to get valued correctly, but I’m still in on Ballesteros at his fair value. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 69/22/73/.271/.342/.440/2

8) Alexander Canario CHC, OF, 23.11 – Canario returned from ankle and shoulder surgeries in mid June, and by the time he got back to Triple-A he looked mostly like himself, slashing .276/.342/.524 with 8 homers and a 28%/9.3% K%/BB% in 36 games. He swings the bat like it’s a bazooka with an extreme all or nothing approach, so he’ll easily pop 30+ homers if the hit tool doesn’t completely tank him, and it took him only 17 PA to hit his first major league grand slam. The part that didn’t come back was his speed with only 2 steals and 25.8 ft/sec sprint speed in his MLB debut, albeit in such a small sample I wouldn’t give it too much weight, and he was also just coming back from two major surgeries. He’ll have to earn his playing time every step of the way, and the hit tool is in the major danger zone, but his explosive power is worth taking a shot on. 2024 Projection: 22/8/29/.221/.292/.423/2 Prime Projection: 66/28/79/.237/.312/.466/7

9) Jackson Ferris CHC, LHP, 20.3 – Ferris is a big, slinging lefty at 6’4”, 195 pound lefty with a plus mid 90’s fastball that absolutely explodes out of his hand. He combines the heat with a two potentially plus breakers (slider, curve), and a lesser used, developing changeup. He dominated Single-A hitters with a 3.38 ERA and 32.5% K% in 56 IP, and while he did it in mostly short outings, he was up to 5 IP a couple times towards the end of the season. Along with staying healthy and building up innings, the biggest issue will be his control. He had a 13.9% BB% and he doesn’t exactly have the most repeatable delivery. There is elite pitching prospect upside with control gains and continued refinement, but there is also bullpen risk. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 11/3.77/1.32/185 in 160 IP

10) Jefferson Rojas CHC, 2B/SS, 18.11 – If Triantos was a better defensive player, he would have likely taken this 10th spot, but having a player take up a roster spot on your fantasy team for a few years while they slowly work their way into more playing time can be a pain in the ass. And I’m not sure Triantos’ upside is worth the defensive risk. Enter Jefferson Rojas. Rojas was a barely 18 year old in full season ball and he more than held his own, slashing .268/.345/.404 with 7 homers, 13 steals, and a 19.9%/7.5% K%/BB% in 70 games at Single-A. His tools don’t necessarily jump out at you at 5’10”, but he’s the type to do everything pretty well on a baseball field (hit, power, speed, defense, arm). Taking into account his excellent age to level production (119 wRC+), you can probably tack on a tick more upside to project out a potentially above average across the board player. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 83/21/76/.276/.338/.441/15

Just Missed

11) James Triantos CHC, 2B, 21.2

12) Jordan Wicks CHC, LHP, 24.7 – See above

13) Matt Mervis CHC, 1B, 26.0

14) Brennen Davis CHC, OF, 24.5

15) Haydn McGeary CHC, 1B, 24.6

16) Michael Arias CHC, RHP, 22.5

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Jumping off from the Bellinger blurb, MLB changes the baseball every damn year, and I’m not even 100% sure they are truly in complete control of every change, as my understanding is that they manufacture new balls for every season. The juicier 2023 ball allowed mediocre exit velocity bats to come alive and be impact MLB hitters, but those type of hitters hold more risk coming into 2024 because we can’t be sure how the ball will play until we actually see it. The 2022 ball killed those guys. Big EV hitters are much more ball proof than low EV hitters. Everybody seemed to love the way the game was played in 2023, fans and baseball executives alike, so I don’t see why they would intentionally change the juiciness of the ball (I know they have experimented with tackier balls too, which is an entirely other discussion), but I’m not sure how it can’t be in the back of our minds while valuing players for next season.

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Baltimore Orioles (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 137 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: TOP 78 C
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100+ COMING LATER IN THE OFF-SEASON)
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Baltimore Orioles 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I like to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team, and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Baltimore Orioles 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 78 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)
-Off-Season content includes team dynasty reports, deep positional rankings, predicting future prospects lists, strategy articles, podcasts and very, very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Milwaukee Brewers–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

Hitters

Jordan Westburg BAL, 2B/3B, 25.1 – I named Westburg one of my Top 10 Early Off-Season Dynasty Targets (Patreon), because there is no better time to go after a former top prospect than when they have a lukewarm MLB debut. Westburg had only 3 homers, 4 steals, and a .715 OPS in his 68 game debut, but it’s the individual components of the underlying numbers that make me so excited. He crushed the ball with a 90.2/94.0 MPH AVG/FB EV, he had a strong 13.4 degree launch, he has plus speed with a 28.9 ft/sec sprint, he had no contact issues with a 25.8% whiff%, and he didn’t chase with an almost dead average 28.4% Chase%. To top it all off, he was a plus defensive player at both 2B and 3B. That is a pretty Teflon combination of skills to have. He proved his superiority at Triple-A too with 18 homers, 6 steals, a .295 BA and a 131 wRC+ in 67 games. While Gunnar and Adley hog all the attention on the MLB level, and Holliday, Mayo etc … hog all the attention on prospect lists, you should sneakily tip toe in there and steal Westburg from his current owner like a thief in the night. 2024 Projection: 78/23/74/.269/.330/.448/14 Prime Projection: 89/26/86/.277/.342/.471/16

Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS/3B, 22.9 – If Gunnar took advantage of the new stolen base rules like almost everyone else, Gunnar vs. Carroll would still look very close today, but he only attempted 13 steals in 150 games. It’s not like he couldn’t have run more with a 28.8 ft/sec sprint and a solid 77% success rate, so if he just decides to start running more in 2024, he could quickly rise up the dynasty rankings even further. Even with the modest steal totals, there is a ton to love, led by how hard he crushes the ball. His 92 MPH EV is in the top 9% of the league, and he unsurprisingly raised his launch angle much higher than in his MLB debut in 2022 (2 degrees) with an 11.4 degree launch. He also cemented the huge jump his hit tool took in 2022 with a 25.6%/9.0% K%/BB% this year. It all led to a 123 wRC+ with 28 homers. The only issue he hasn’t corrected is his struggles vs. lefties with a .618 OPS, but Baltimore looks committed to playing him everyday and not turning him into a platoon guy, so I have faith he will hit them well enough over time. Keep in mind he will still be only 22 at the start of next season. He ranked 30th overall on A Top 78 Sneak Peek of the 2024 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). 2024 Projection: 97/30/91/.266/.341/.506/15

Pitchers

Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 24.5 – Rodriguez had a 7.35 ERA in his first 45.1 IP before Baltimore sent him back down, but he was different man when they called him back up, putting up a 2.58 ERA with a 24%/6.9% K%/BB% in his final 76.2 IP. He throws a 5 pitch mix led by a 97.4 MPH fastball and three above average to plus secondaries in his changeup, slider, and curve (he mixes in a cutter too). Even in his dominant 2nd half run, he didn’t really excel in any one area. He didn’t miss a ton of bats, the control wasn’t elite, and he didn’t particularly induce a ton of weak contact. It makes me a little hesitant to say he will be a true fantasy ace next season, but with his level of stuff and minor league performance, it seems inevitable he will get there eventually. 2024 Projection: 13/3.59/1.13/181 in 170 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.23/1.01/220 in 190 IP

Kyle Bradish BAL, RHP, 27.7 – I’m a little skeptical of fully buying into Bradish, mostly because of how elite his surface stats were relative to what I think his true talent level is. He put up a pitching line of 2.83/1.04/25%/6.6% in 168.2 IP. That is an ace level pitching line and it’s sure to push his trade value and draft value higher than I would be willing to go. His 3.82 xERA and 3.76 SIERA were both much worse. But I don’t want it to come across that I don’t like him, because he made real improvements in 2023. He threw his bad 4-seam fastball (.433 xwOBA) much less in favor of his plus 95 MPH sinker (.314 xwOBA). And he also threw his above average slider (36.4% whiff%) and curve (35.6% whiff%) more. He did all of that with improved control with a well above average 6.6% BB%. This new pitch mix has me buying into him as a Top 100-ish dynasty asset, but I wouldn’t be willing to go higher than that. 2024 Projection: 11/3.62/1.19/165 in 165 IP

Bullpen 

Yennier Cano BAL, Closer, 30.1 – Felix Bautista underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss all of 2024, which leaves the Baltimore closer job wide open. It’s not a guarantee that Cano will win the job, but he has to be considered the heavy favorite. He broke out in 2023 with a pitching line of 2.11/1.00/65/13/8 saves in 72.2 IP. His 96.3 MPH sinker is the 4th most valuable sinker in the game (including starters) with a negative 10 degree launch and a .292 xwOBA against. His changeup and slider both get whiffs with a 40.5% and 37.7% whiff%, respectively. And he showed elite control with a 4.6% BB%. He doesn’t strike enough guys out to be considered in the elite tier, and he doesn’t have a strong enough hold on the job both this year and in the future to really extend yourself for him, but it seems likely he will be an above average closer in 2024. 2024 Projection: 3/3.22/1.14/66/28 saves in 65 IP

Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 20.4 – Holliday’s power/speed combo really wasn’t that huge with only 12 homers and 24 steals (in 33 attempts) in 125 games spread across 4 levels (A, A+, AA, AAA). It dropped off even further in the upper minors with 5 homers and 4 steals in 54 games. It seems crazy to start his blurb off with criticism, but when the battle for the top prospect in the game is so close, it needs to be highlighted. Now that we got that out of the way, Holliday had an absolutely insane season where he slashed .323/.442/.499 with a 20.3%/17.4% K%/BB%. He was in high school last year, and he displayed one of the most advanced plate approaches of any prospect all the way through Triple-A. This is why everyone drools over kids with baseball bloodlines, they tend to be far advanced beyond their years. As I mentioned, the power isn’t fully developed yet with relatively low flyball rates, but he hits the ball hard with a 30.2% Hard Hit% and a 90.9 MPH EV in 40 batted balls at Triple-A, so I’m not concerned about the power long term. He has the safety edge over Chourio, but it’s not like Chourio is a risky prospect, so Holliday will slot in at #2 for me on my upcoming 2024 Top 500 Prospects Rankings. 2024 Projection: 78/16/71/.270/.339/.441/20 Prime Projection: 117/27/94/.296/.382/.506/28

2) Coby Mayo BAL, 1B/3B, 22.4 – My boldest prediction in last off-season’s Predicting the 2024 Top 50 Prospects Rankings was that Coby Mayo would explode to a Top 10 prospect, predicting that “Mayo will follow in Gunnar Henderson’s footsteps with an off the charts type season in the upper minors. He’ll put up a 150 wRC+ at Double-A and a 130 wRC+ at Triple-A. The K% will be under 25%, the power will be huge, and there will be some surprising speed too.” … Mayo put up a 178 wRC+ in 78 games at Double-A and a 127 wRC+ in 62 games at Triple-A. The power was huge with 29 homers in 140 games, and the K% was under 25% at 24.1%. I don’t think I could have nailed that more even if I was actually able to see into the future. The surprising speed didn’t really show up with only 5 steals, but better than nothing. The 6’5”, 230 pound Mayo is now a truly elite power hitting prospect, just as I expected. 2024 Projection: 31/11/35/.242/.319/.455/2 Prime Projection: 86/34/99/.265/.346/.535/6

3) Samuel Basallo BAL, C/1B, 19.8 – The biggest issue with Basallo has nothing to do with him. It’s that Adley isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. And with Baltimore trying to build a Tampa Bay North situation, I don’t think they are going to feel pressured to trade him either. His bat will profile just fine at 1B, but now we’re talking about competition with Coby Mayo and possibly Heston Kjerstad too. Maybe I’m just borrowing trouble a bit too much, because Basallo looks like he has a special bat. He’s a built up 6’3” with a treacherous lefty swing that is made to do damage, slashing .313/.404/.551 with 20 homers, 12 steals, and a 94/61 K/BB in 114 games at mostly Single-A and High-A. Four of those games came at Double-A where he put up a 220 wRC+. He’s a complete hitter with power, contact, and patience. And he did all of that as an 18 year old for most of the season. If defense wasn’t a slight issue (he’s not a particularly good defensive catcher either), I would likely be even higher on him, but he has the type of bat where maybe you should just completely ignore it. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 84/32/95/.272/.354/.517/5

4) Heston Kjerstad BAL, 1B/OF, 25.1 – Kjerstad finally played in his first full professional season since being draft 2nd overall in 2022 due to myocarditis, and he showed why he got draft so highly, slashing .303/.376/.528 with 21 homers, 5 steals, and a 18.4%/7.7% K%/BB% in 122 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He cooled off towards the end of the season with a .680 OPS in his final 34 games, but that’s understandable as he almost doubled his career high in games. He also closed the year out in the majors where he showed off the massive power with 2 homers, a 92.3 MPH EV and 19.3 degree launch in 33 PA. The power is unquestionable, but the plate approach was rough with a 30.3%/6.1% K%/BB%, and his plate approach hasn’t been the strongest point of his game going back to college, so there is certainly some risk there. There is also a major, no ending in sight playing time scrum brewing in Baltimore. 2024 Projection: 44/15/50/.246/.313/.452/3 Prime Projection: 76/27/85/.259/.325/.483/6

5) DL Hall BAL, LHP, 25.6 – Hall wasn’t able to properly ramp up last off-season which resulted in his fastball velocity dropping a tick or two in the 1st half, and he struggled because of it with a 4.67 ERA in his first 44.1 IP. Baltimore then shut him down for a month to build strength back up and his velocity returned in a bullpen role in the 2nd half. He closed out the year in the majors and showed why he’s been such a highly touted prospect with a 2.84 ERA and 31.2%/6.5% K%/BB% in 22.2 IP (including the playoffs). The 95.6 MPH fastball was silly elite with a .243 xwOBA and 30.2% whiff%, the changeup was plus with a 36.4% whiff% and .241 xwOBA, and the slider was mediocre with a 31% whiff% and .358 xwOBA. It resulted in a near elite 30.3% whiff% overall. The most impressive thing was his control (6.5% BB%) as he’s struggled with his control his entire career. I think Baltimore is going to be tempted to continue to use him out of the bullpen, but I hope they give him a real chance to win a rotation spot out of camp, because he will almost surely win one. This is legit ace upside, and although the control improvements were in a small sample and out of the bullpen, they are extremely encouraging to me. I came into this blurb expecting to be lukewarm on Hall, but I’m kinda all in on him now. I would buy low for sure. 2024 Projection: 5/3.64/1.28/110 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.53/1.24/180 in 150 IP

6) Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 24.0 – Cowser had a terrible MLB debut with a lowly 40 wRC+ and .115 BA in 77 PA, but he got massively unlucky. He had a .175 BABIP, his .302 xwOBA was much higher than his .226 wOBA, and none of his underlying numbers looked concerning at all really. He was a beast at Triple-A with a 136 wRC+, 17 homers, and 9 steals in 87 games. Despite not being overly concerned with the MLB debut, there are a few things that make me think he could end up a more solid than standout 5×5 BA fantasy player. The strikeout rates are on the high side with a 26.8% K% at Triple-A and 28.6% in MLB, the launch angle is on the low side with a 25.2% flyball% at Triple-A and 4.6 degree launch in MLB, and he’s not a true burner with a 27.9 ft/sec sprint speed. Add a star in OBP leagues as he’s an extremely patient hitter who rarely chases, but I’m seeing a more solid across the board type than a true league winner. 2024 Projection: 43/9/36/.248/.322/.410/7 Prime Projection: 83/21/77/.264/.348/.440/14

7) Enrique Bradfield BAL, OF, 22.4 –  If Willie Mays Hayes were a real person, he would be Enrique Bradfield. Selected 17th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Bradfield is an absolute terror on the bases with 37 steals in 62 games at Vandy. He then literally stole a base a game in pro ball with 25 steals in 25 games at mostly Single-A. He has a legit shot of stealing over 50 bags with the new rules, and can maybe even approach Esteury Ruiz levels, but like Ruiz, the other parts of his hitting profile leave something to be desired. He has well below average power and the hit tool really isn’t that great either. He had a .279 BA this year in college and he hit 0 homers in his pro debut with the wood bats (he also had 0 homers in 11 games in the wood bat Cape League in 2022). He’s purely a speed play, but that speed can carry your fantasy team. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 77/8/49/.263/.331/.378/41

8) Mac Horvath BAL, 3B/OF, 22.8 – Selected 53rd overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Horvath is a high risk, high reward college bat with a big power/speed combo and hit tool issues. He’s a great athlete at a strong 6’1”, 195 pounds with a quick and powerful righty swing. He cracked 24 homers with 25 steals in 60 games in the ACC, and then he obliterated pro ball with a 323 wRC+ in 3 games in rookie ball, 160 wRC+ in 14 games at Single-A, and 184 wRC+ in 5 games at High-A. It was good for 5 homers and 14 steals in 22 games overall. He’s on the older side, the 26.3% K% shows the hit tool risk, and Baltimore is stacked, so the path to playing time isn’t clear, but he’s the type of prospect you buy when you want big upside from someone who isn’t a teenager. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 71/23/76/.237/.318/.448/18

9) Dylan Beavers BAL, OF, 22.8 – Beavers has yet to show the level of power he displayed in college on the pro level with only 11 homers and a weak 22.2% Hard Hit% in 119 games split between High-A and Double-A, but everything else in his profile looks strong with a mature plate approach, solid contact rates, and speed. He slashed .288/.383/.467 with 27 steals and a 22.1%/13.3% K%/BB%. He performed even better at Double-A (150 wRC+) than he did at High-A (125 wRC+). There is definitely more raw power in the tank at 6’4”, 206 pounds, so if he can find a way to tap into it more, he could be trouble. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/18/72/.260/.328/.421/16

10) Joey Ortiz BAL, SS/2B, 25.9 – This last spot is a toss up between Ortiz and Norby, but I think both are headed for part time roles to start their careers with Gunnar, Holliday, and Westburg ahead of them on the depth chart. I gave the nod to Ortiz because he has the superior glove, which is often the determining factor for who gets on the field. He also hits the ball quite hard (90 MPH EV at Triple-A and a 88.2 MPH EV in his 34 PA MLB debut), has above average speed (28.1 ft/sec sprint) and has above average to plus contact rates (17.7%/8.2% K%/BB%). Along with the playing time concerns, he doesn’t lift the ball enough to put up big homer totals, and the upside seems lacking in general. 2024 Projection: 22/5/17/.258/.317/.398/6 Prime Projection: 73/16/69/.274/.331/.418/16

Just Missed

11) Connor Norby BAL, 2B, 23.9

12) Chayce McDermott BAL, RHP, 25.7

13) Cade Povich BAL, LHP, 24.0

14) Jud Fabian BAL, OF, 23.6

15) Seth Johnson BAL, RHP, 25.6

16) Braylin Tavera BAL, OF, 19.1

17) Leandro Arias BAL, SS, 19.2

18) Matthew Etzel BAL, 3B, 21.11

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Development isn’t linear, and that goes tenfold for pitchers, but it can be hard to figure out how to apply that knowledge in practice, rather than just in theory. So I appreciate DL Hall making it really easy on us. Just as his dynasty value and ranking on prospect lists have fallen off a cliff to levels lower than it’s ever been, is when his target status has never been juicier for me. The velocity dipped in the first half of the season, he hasn’t been able to meaningfully improve his control in 6 years, and the bullpen is calling his name, so people are starting to give up. But his velocity bounced back in the 2nd half and he had a legitimate reason for the 1st half dip, he showed glimpses of improved control for the first time in his career, and he showed the potential for dominant performance on the MLB level. And of course, the filthy stuff that made him so hyped earlier in his career is still there with an elite mid 90’s fastball and 2 potentially plus secondaries in his changeup and slider. I’ve never been higher and more excited about him, and his value has never been lower. I’m going after him.

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Milwaukee Brewers–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 78 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)
-Off-Season content includes team dynasty reports, deep positional rankings, predicting future prospects lists, strategy articles, podcasts and very, very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Cincinnati Reds 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I like to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team, and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Cincinnati Reds 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 78 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-SEPTEMBER 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-SEPTEMBER 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)
-Off-Season content includes team dynasty reports, deep positional rankings, predicting future prospects lists, strategy articles, podcasts and very, very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Chicago White Sox–Colorado Rockies–Kansas City Royals–Milwaukee Brewers–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

Hitters

Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 22.3 – Call me crazy, but I’m actually encouraged by Elly’s 33.7% K%, 29.7% whiff%, and .235 BA in his age 21 year old season in the major leagues. In last year’s Top 1,000 Rankings, I projected Elly’s 2023 triple slash would be .232/.294/.433, and it ended up being .235/.300/.410. Not bad if I don’t say so myself, but point being, this is exactly what you should have expected. He also had a 26.9%/14.0% K%/BB% in 38 games at Triple-A, which proves he is capable of making real improvements to his plate approach over time (30.9%/7.7% K%/BB% at Double-A in 2022). And his hit tool only needs to get to below average to be an absolute fantasy monster. The power is elite with a 91.2 MPH EV and 119.2 Max EV which was the 3rd highest mark in the league. It came with a 3.6 degree launch, but he has the type of power that is launch proof (13 homers in 98 games), and he’s never had any major groundball issues in the minors, so that number is only coming up. He also has elite speed with 35 steals and a 30.5 ft/sec sprint speed which was tied for the fastest man in baseball with Bobby Witt. I always say, “if you can’t take risks in fantasy, where can you take risks,” and I’m not even sure Elly is as risky as people think. I’m all in. He ranked 9th overall on A Top 78 Sneak Peek of the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). 2024 Projection: 91/25/85/.244/.317/.452/52 Prime Projection: 103/33/109/.261/.337/.506/65

Christian Encarnacion-Strand CIN, 1B, 24.4 – Strand was so good in his rookie year it might have pushed Joey Votto right out the door before he could have his final year retirement tour (he still wants to come back to the Reds for one more year, we’ll see). He cracked 13 homers with a 10.5% barrel%, 95.8 MPH FB/LD EV, 18.6 degree launch, and .347 xwOBA in 63 games. Even his hit tool was pretty good with a .270 BA and .268 xBA. The plate approach wasn’t great as expected with a 28.6%/5.8% K%/BB%, but he proved he’s capable of making improvements in that area at Triple-A with a 21.8%/10.4% K%/BB%. Speaking of Triple-A, he decimated the level with 20 homers and a 155 wRC+ in just 67 games. Strand is on a beeline to be one of the premier power hitters in the game. 2024 Projection: 78/32/90/.252/.318/.499/5

Spencer Steer CIN, 1B/3B/OF, 26.4 – I named Steer a target last off-season and finished his Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “He’s in a great ballpark and I’m betting on those EV numbers coming up enough for Steer to do damage. I would buy his poor MLB debut.” As I predicted, his poor EV numbers in his rookie year (84.7 MPH) came way up to 88.7 MPH, and he most certainly did damage, slashing .271/.356/.464 with 23 homers, 15 steals, and a 20.9%/10.2% K%/BB% in 156 games. The underlying numbers back up the production with average to above average marks everywhere you look. The one issue is that he was poor defensively everywhere he played, and Cincinnati is stacked with the talent right now. A playing time crunch is coming and Steer could be a victim of it, unless Cincinnati can make a trade for pitching this off-season, which they clearly should. 2024 Projection: 79/24/81/.266/.341/.457/13

Matt McLain CIN, 2B/SS, 24.8 – While we’re all drooling over AFL breakouts right now, here is a reminder that McLain tanked in the AFL in 2022 with a .190 BA and 31.2% K%, before becoming one of the biggest MLB breakouts in 2023. He slashed .290/.357/.507 with 16 homers, 14 steals, and a 28.5%/7.7% K%/BB% in 89 games. He obliterated Triple-A too with a 184 wRC+ in 40 games. He has double plus speed with a 29 ft/sec sprint and he has above average power with a 89.3 MPH EV and 13.8 degree launch. His plate approach wasn’t great with a 28.5%/7.7% K%/BB% in the majors, but his chase rate was above average at 25.4%, and his 28% whiff% shows he isn’t going to have any major contact issues. He also had a 20.6%/16.7% K%/BB% in the minors. And the cherry on top is that he is a good defensive player, so he should be safe from the playing time crunch. McLain is the real deal and should be valued as a top 50 dynasty asset. 2024 Projection: 87/26/83/.269/.343/.468/24

Pitchers

Hunter Greene CIN, RHP, 24.8 – Buy low on Hunter Greene. We’ve been taught over and over again to not throw the towel in on elite pitching prospects if they don’t immediately dominate their first few years in the league, and Greene has all of the ingredients to be a next level breakout as he gains more experience. He had a 4.82 ERA in 112 IP, but the 3.82 xERA shows he was unlucky, and the 30.5%/9.6% K%/BB% is screaming future ace breakout. The stuff is fire with a 98.3 MPH fastball, a plus slider that notched a 39.2% whiff%, and an improving changeup that put up a respectable .314 xwOBA against. I know the fastball gets hit harder than you would expect, but as his command improves and as he continues to tinker with his arsenal, I’m betting on him figuring it out. This is going to be one of those breakouts that look so obvious in hindsight. 2024 Projection: 11/3.72/1.25/200 in 160 IP

Andrew Abbott CIN, LHP, 24.10 – Abbott took the majors by storm in his first 10 starts at the level with with a 1.90 ERA and 66/19 K/BB in 61.2 IP, but the league caught up with him in the 2nd half with a 6.42 ERA and 54/25 K/BB in his final 47.2 IP. The stuff is solid, but not truly standout with a 92.7 MPH fastball, he got hit very hard with a 91.2 MPH EV against, and the control is below average with a 9.6% BB%. Those were some of the reasons I wasn’t fully buying into Abbott when he was crushing the minors, but I don’t want to make the same mistake for his 2nd time through the majors. He still had a strong debut overall with a 3.87 ERA and 26.1% K% in 109.1 IP. He has a legit 4 pitch mix where the sweeper notched an elite .182 xwOBA against, and the changeup missed bats with a 39.4% whiff%. He definitely has the collection of skills to be an impact fantasy starter, I’m just not sure I would put top of the rotation expectations on him, especially in Cincinnati. 2024 Projection: 11/3.93/1.29/187 in 170 IP

Bullpen 

Alexis Diaz CIN, Closer, 27.6 – Diaz was much better in the first half (1.80 ERA with a 40.4% K% in 35 IP) than the 2nd half (4.45 ERA with a 20% in 32.1 IP), but nothing really changed in his profile, so I’m leaning towards it being small sample reliever variance. It all evened out to a 3.07 ERA and 30.1%/12.6% K%/BB% in 67.1 IP. The slightly more concerning thing is that the stuff wasn’t quite as good in 2023 as it was in 2022 with his fastball down 1.3 MPH to 94.5 MPH, and it got hit harder too with a 90.2 MPH EV against vs. 86.6 MPH in 2022. The slider also wasn’t as good with the whiff% dropping 7 percentage points to 38%. Some of this feels like slicing and dicing the numbers a little too much, which is why I’m still projecting him as elite, but if he struggles, it’s not like their weren’t some red flags. 2024 Projection: 6/3.02/1.12/85/36 saves in 65 IP

Cincinnati Reds Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Noelvi Marte CIN, 3B, 22.6 – Everyone called Marte fat and slow this off-season, so of course he put up double plus run times in the majors with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed. Be super wary of scouting speed grades as they are wildly inaccurate (see also, Henry Davis and Nolan Jones). Not only is he a speedster, but he crushed the ball with a 91.3 MPH EV, and the hit tool looked good with a 20.3% K% and .296 xBA in 123 MLB PA. It all resulted in a slash line of .316/.366/.456 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 20.3%/6.5% K%/BB%. He showed those same skills in the upper minors with 11 homers, 18 steals, and a .279 BA in 92 games. He did all of this as a 21-year-old. He’s fast, he hits it hard, he gets the bat on the ball, he produced in the upper minors, he produced in the majors, and he was super young. Quite simply, this is an elite fantasy prospect, and I’m not sure he gets the respect he deserves. 2024 Projection: 77/19/73/.261/.322/.431/22 Prime Projection: 96/27/91/.276/.354/.491/25

2) Edwin Arroyo CIN, SS, 20.7 – Arroyo got off to a cold start in April and May, be he turned it on in June and never looked back, slashing .281/.360/.480 with 9 homers, 25 steals, and a 20.1%/10.1% K%/BB% in his final 89 games. 4 of those games came at Double-A where he put up a 153 wRC+, albeit with a 30%/5% K%/BB%. He’s a switch hitter who hits well from both sides of the plate, he has plus speed, and at 6’0”, 175 pounds, there is definitely room for him to add more power. I’m not sure I see a star when I watch him, but he’s still quite young, and I wouldn’t completely rule that out as a possibility at this point. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/18/74/.253/.320/.428/25

3) Rhett Lowder CIN, RHP, 22.1 –  Selected 7th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Lowder is a relatively safe, quick moving college arm. None of his stuff is jaw dropping, but he has plus control of 3 above average to plus pitches in his 93-94 MPH fastball, slider and changeup. It led to a pitching line of 1.87/0.95/143/24 in 120.1 IP in the ACC. He’s 6’2”, 200 pounds with an athletic delivery, he works fast, and he throws strikes with good stuff. Take a star away for landing in Cincy’s hitter’s haven, but I wouldn’t let the landing spot completely spoil you on him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 13/3.78/1.18/185 in 180 IP

4) Chase Petty CIN, RHP, 21.0 – If Petty was throwing as hard he was throwing in his draft year (mid to upper 90’s), he would be an elite pitching prospect right now, but he’s settled in as a low to mid 90’s guy. Even with the modest velocity, he does everything else so well, this version of him might actually be better than the version we thought we were getting. He’s now a pitcher’s pitcher with elite control (5.5% BB%) and a very diverse pitch mix. He throws so many different pitches that all look pretty similar out of his hand and are all at around similar velocities, but they break a different way as they get closer to the plate. He throws a hard gyro slider, a hard split change, a 2 seam fastball, 4 seam fastball, and a slightly slower breaking ball. He’s a nightmare to face. You can almost say he’s a junk baller type, but he throws his secondaries so hard it wouldn’t exactly be accurate. He dominated with a 1.72 ERA and 24.1%/5.5% K%/BB% in 68 IP at mostly High-A. He closed out year at Double-A and was equally as dominant. The floor might be higher than the ceiling at the moment, but if he all of a sudden finds that old velocity of his, watch out. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 11/3.74/1.19/166 in 170 IP

5) Connor Phillips CIN, RHP, 22.11 – Phillips’ control took a monster step forward at Double-A with a 9.5% BB% (14% BB% in 2022), but it proved to be a pre-tacked ball mirage. His walk rate exploded again at Triple-A and MLB with a 16.9% BB% and 13.5% BB%, respectively. When MLB tests out new rules/balls in the minors, they tend to make their way to the majors, so I wouldn’t be shocked if MLB incorporates a tackier ball at some point in the future. It will majorly help poor control guys like Phillips if they do, because his stuff is utter filth with a 96.4 MPH fastball and an elite slider that notched a 48.9% whiff% and .152 xwOBA in 20.2 MLB IP. With the pre-tacked balls at Double-A, he had a 3.34 ERA in 64.2 IP, but that jumped to 4.69 at Triple-A and 6.97 in the majors. The stuff is tantalizing and makes you want to bet on him, but the control is in the major bullpen danger zone with the normal baseballs. 2024 Projection: 4/4.28/1.37/88 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.86/1.32/170 in 150 IP

6) Sal Stewart CIN, 3B, 20.4 – Stewart is proving to have an elite plate approach with a 15.2%/17.1% K%/BB% in 88 games at Single-A (128 wRC+), which he followed up with a 13.7%/13.7% K%/BB% in 29 games at High-A (127 wRC+). And he’s not the type of plus approach guy who doesn’t have much else to offer, Stewart is an excellent athlete at 6’3”, 215 pounds. He hit only 12 homers in 117 total games, but he hit the ball fairly hard, the raw power is only going up from here, and he didn’t have any major groundball issues. He also stole 15 bags, which shows his speed might be getting underrated. The biggest problem is his defense, and in a jam packed organization like Cincinnati, that could become an issue down the road. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 82/25/88/.274/.351/.473/8

7) Ricardo Cabrera CIN, SS, 19.5 – Here’s how I closed out Cabrera’s Top 1,000 blurb last off-season, ranking him 985th overall, “I don’t think it’s a good idea to give too long of a leash on hyped international prospects who struggle their first year or two in pro ball, but I also don’t want to pull the rip cord too early. Gotta give them at least a year to get acclimated.” That proved wise with Cabrera as he followed up a mediocre pro debut in the DSL in 2022 with a full scale breakout in 2023. He slashed .350/.469/.559 with 5 homers, 21 steals, and a 20%/12% K%/BB% in 39 games at stateside rookie, and then he went to full season ball and put up a 159 wRC+ in 5 games. He has a good feel to hit, a strong plate approach, and a potentially above average power/speed combo. He’s bigger and hit the ball harder than the next two guys on this list, which is why I have him slotted ahead of them. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 81/20/77/.267/.330/.441/18

8) Carlos Jorge CIN, 2B, 20.6 – Jorge is a small guy at 5’10”, 160 pounds and he doesn’t hit the ball all that hard with low EV’s and hard hit rates. It makes me a little hesitant to rank him too highly, but he’s the type to get the most out his raw power through quality of contact. He pulled the ball over 50% of the time and he doesn’t have any groundball issues. He’s a destroyer of levels with a 173 wRC+ in 2021 in the DSL, a 151 wRC+ in stateside rookie in 2022, and a 140 wRC+ at Single-A in 2023 (he struggled at High-A to close out the year with a 86 wRC+). What you are really buying here is the very mature plate approach (19.7%/13.2% K%/BB%) and plus speed (31 steals). If the raw power meaningfully ticks up in the future, he will be a fantasy beast, and even if it doesn’t, he has the skillset to make a fantasy impact. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 83/15/61/.263/.337/.421/26

9) Hector Rodriguez CIN, OF, 20.1 – Rodriguez looks like such a natural and easy hitter at the dish. He has a calm setup before exploding with a pretty nasty lefty swing. He’s done nothing but produce in pro ball, and that continued in 2023, slashing .293/.347/.510 with 16 homers, 18 steals, and an 18.9%/6.1% K%/BB% in 101 games at Single-A before slowing down at High-A (88 wRC+ in 14 games). The problem is that he is a small guy at 5’8” who doesn’t have a ton of raw power. He also doesn’t walk a ton. Projecting that out on the MLB level, it could end up looking like a bottom of the order contact/speed play, but maybe that is just the small man bias kicking in. If he was taller, his hype would be a lot louder right now. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 78/16/69/.273/.328/.427/23

10) Cam Collier CIN, 3B, 19.4 – Collier had a very lackluster season with only 6 homers, a 53% GB%, and a .706 OPS in 111 games at Single-A. There is no doubt his value is lower today than it was last off-season, but there are enough positives to think the best is yet to come. He was very young for his draft class and was just 18 years old playing the entire season in full season ball. He hit the ball very hard, especially for his age, and he showed a strong plate approach with a 23%/12.4% K%/BB%. His 98 wRC+ was also nearly average. If he can raise his launch angle, and I would bet on him being able to do so, he can still very easily live up to hit plus hit/power profile coming out of the draft. He’s a hold. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 77/24/84/.265/.334/.468/5

Just Missed

11) Blake Dunn CIN, OF, 25.7

12) Rece Hinds CIN, OF, 23.7

13) Alfredo Duno CIN, C, 18.3

14) Lyon Richardson CIN, RHP, 24.2

15) Ty Floyd CIN, RHP, 22.7 – Selected 38th overall, the 6’2”, 200 pound Floyd has a plus to double plus mid 90’s fastball that he leans on heavily. It led to a 4.35 ERA with a 31% K% in 91 IP. There are more than a few heavy fastball usage pitchers who are doing well in the majors right now, but those guys generally have plus control and/or better secondaries than Floyd. Floyd’s control is below average with a 9.6% BB%, but it was improving as the year went on, and his slider, curve and change are about average at best. If the secondaries and/or control take a step forward, there is very real upside here, and I don’t mind targeting him at all as a later round arm if you focus on offense with your earlier picks. He ranked 37th overall in my End of Season Top 54 FYPD Rankings. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/3.95/1.27/165 in 160 IP

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

I talked about this in my Pittsburgh Pirates Strategy Section, but it’s worth pounding the point home in the Reds section as well, I’m salivating at what “Vegas” is going to set the Cincinnati Reds win total O/U at this off-season. I’ve been absolutely lights out with MLB win total over/unders these past two years. I wrote/tweeted about my bets on the Orioles and Rangers last off-season, and I did the same for my Twins bet the off-season before that. I think “Vegas” underrates the bubbling minor league systems of up and coming teams, and the Reds are the exact type of team they’ve underrated in the past. They are loaded with talent, they have great depth, and their pitching will get underrated with possible breakouts from Greene, Lodolo, and Abbott. Arms like Phillips, Richardson, Petty and Lowder are all knocking on the door as well. This a team ready to explode, and I doubt their win O/U will fully reflect that.

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Chicago White Sox–Colorado Rockies–Kansas City Royals–Milwaukee Brewers–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 78 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-SEPTEMBER 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-SEPTEMBER 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)
-Off-Season content includes team dynasty reports, deep positional rankings, predicting future prospects lists, strategy articles, podcasts and very, very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

New York Mets 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I like to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team, and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the New York Mets 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-SEPTEMBER 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-SEPTEMBER 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: SEPTEMBER MAILBAG! (9/22/23)
-Off-Season content includes team dynasty reports, deep positional rankings, predicting future prospects lists, strategy articles, podcasts and very, very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Chicago White Sox–Colorado Rockies–Kansas City Royals–Milwaukee Brewers–New York Yankees (free)–San Diego Padres–Washington Nationals

Hitters

Francisco Alvarez NYM, C, 22.4 – Two of the oldest tricks in the dynasty book of trading make Alvarez a very attractive target this off-season. A .222 BABIP dragged his BA down to .209 (only 5 players in all of baseball with over 400 PA had a lower BABIP), and he didn’t immediately put up Hall of Fame numbers in his rookie season with a below average 97 wRC+. Bad luck (the 26% K% and 31.8% whiff% weren’t bad at all), and lack of patience with prospects in their rookie year are basically the playbook on how to make trades that look fair at the moment, but end up looking like major rip-offs not too far into the future. And with top prospects flying through the minors faster than ever, these type of buy opportunities are likely to explode when everyone’s favorite 20 and 21 year olds take a minute to adjust to MLB pitching. It’s not like Alvarez’ price will be dirt cheap though, because his 25 homers were the 2nd most for all catchers, and the 90.1/95.7 MPH EV backs up the production. The scary thing is, this is just scratching the surface of his power potential. Alvarez is going to be a perennial 30+ homer bat from the catcher position for the next decade. 2024 Projection: 72/32/80/.239/.324/.472/4 Prime Projection: 85/34/93/.254/.351/.520/3

Mark Vientos NYM, 3B/1B, 24.4 – If Alvarez is out of your price range, Vientos might be more your speed, and you should be able to acquire him for next to nothing in most leagues. Like Alvarez, he got unlucky in 2023 with a .267 wOBA vs. .305 xwOBA, and like Alvarez, he has beastly power with a 92.5/97.6 MPH AVG/FB EV. That isn’t even “beastly power,” that is truly elite power. He put up a 94.4 MPH EV at Triple-A too. Speaking of Triple-A, he showed hit tool improvements at the level with a 21.6%/10.8% K%/BB% in 61 games, and completely demolished the level in general with a 143 wRC+. Showing that kind of swing and miss improvement gives hope he can do the same against MLB pitching with more experience (30.5% K% and 36.7% whiff%). Lack of defensive value is the biggest snafu, but elite power bats tend to force their way into the lineup, and at Vientos’ current dirt cheap price, it’s an easy call to take a shot on him. 2024 Projection: 59/23/71/.236/.315/.450/2 Prime Projection: 77/31/88/.248/.327/.493/2

Brett Baty NYM, 3B, 24.5 – Baty is stuck somewhere in between Alvarez and Vientos, in the sense he still has enough name value where his price won’t be that cheap, but his upside might not be quite high enough to pay that high price. He’s put up very high groundball rates his entire career and he had a 6.6 degree launch in 389 MLB PA in 2023. It led to a lowly 9 homers and 68 wRC+. He also doesn’t have the high contact rates to make up for it with a 28% K% and 31.5% whiff%. I don’t want this to come off like I don’t like him though, because I would bet on Baty becoming a very good MLB hitter. He has a mature plate approach, he hits the ball very hard, he has great size (6’3”, 210), he’s a solid defender at 3B, and he just looks like a hitter in the box. I’m just concerned about his upside in 5×5 BA leagues, and I don’t think his price will be all that cheap this off-season. 2024 Projection: 77/22/74/.246/.322/.435/4 Prime Projection:  84/26/88/.264/.347/.475/5

Pitchers

Kodai Senga NYM, RHP, 31.2 – Senga blew past all reasonable expectations in 2023. He put up a 2.98 ERA with a 29.1%/11.1% K%/BB% in 166.1 IP, and he was even better in the 2nd half with a 2.44 ERA and 29.8%9.1% K%/BB% in his final 84.2 IP. He did it on the back of an insane forkball that put up a 59.8% whiff% and .184 xwOBA. It was the highest whiff% on any pitch in all of baseball thrown at least 317 times (and if you lower the threshold all the way down to 54 pitches, it was the 4th highest mark). He throws gas with a 95.6 MPH fastball and has as diverse 6 pitch mix. Control is really the only thing that can tank him, and if you take into account he was adjusting to a new league and new ball in the 1st half of the season, his 2nd half 9.1% BB% really isn’t bad at all. It’s definitely possible he takes another step forward in year 2. Senga is the real deal. 2024 Projection: 13/3.37/1.17/197 in 165 IP

Bullpen

Edwin Diaz NYM, Closer, 30.0 – Diaz almost returned from March knee surgery in September, which makes me pretty confident he will be 100% in 2024. Any major surgery adds risk, but it’s not like it’s his elbow or shoulder. I’m treating him like the elite of the elite closer he is with a ridiculous 50.2% K% in 2022 on the back of a 99.1 MPH fastball and 90.8 MPH slider. If there is any slight discount to be had because of the injury, I would be all over it. 2024 Projection: 4/2.59/1.00/105/33 saves in 60 IP

New York Mets Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Ronny Mauricio NYM, 2B, 23.0 – I named Mauricio one of my top targets in the Top 10 Early Off-Season Dynasty Baseball Target article on Patreon. Mainstream prospects lists have been slowly sliding him down the rankings the closer he’s gotten to the majors, but I’ve done the exact opposite on my lists. He crushes the ball with a 117.3 MPH Max EV that was the 10th hardest hit ball all season. He had a 90.7 MPH AVG EV in 108 MLB PA (91.1 MPH at AAA). He loves to run with 7 MLB steals and 24 AAA steals, and his speed gets underrated with an above average 27.7 ft/sec sprint. He’s never had any major contact issues and he most certainly looks the part at 6’3” with a vicious swing. He doesn’t have a good plate approach with low walk rates, but keep in mind he’s always been very young for his level, and his 6.6% BB% at Triple-A (6.5% BB% in the majors) was a career high, so I wouldn’t bet against future improvement there either. His mediocre ranking on prospects and mediocre .643 OPS in the majors should create a very nice buy opportunity this off-season. 2024 Projection: 69/19/74/.254/.309/.435/21 Prime Projection: 83/24/83/.267/.325/.466/24

2) Jett Williams NYM, SS, 20.4 – Jett Williams got much thicker in all the right places in 2023, and that extra muscle paid dividends with him cracking 14 homers in 125 games split between Single-A (79 games), High-A (36 games), and Double-A (10 games). 9 of those homers came in his final 47 games. He combines the uptick in power with elite speed (45 steals), and an excellent plate approach (22.1%/19.5% K%/BB%). If he wasn’t 5’6”, he might be a consensus elite prospect already. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 93/20/77/.274/.350/.445/38

3) Luisangel Acuna NYM, SS/2B, 22.1 – Acuna’s power didn’t take a step forward in 2023 as hoped with only 9 homers in 121 games at Double-A, but there is definitely more raw juice in the tank with an explosive righty swing, and that was the only blemish on an otherwise excellent season. He put up a career best (other than the DSL) 18.6% K%, and he stole a career high 57 bases. It’s also really, really hard to resist the pull of elite bloodlines. Even if Acuna never develops big power, he can still be an impact fantasy player, and if does, watch out. 2024 Projection: 36/6/25/.239/.300/.382/14 Prime Projection: 82/17/68/.258/.328/.427/35

4) Drew Gilbert NYM, OF, 23.6 – Gilbert might be the safest prospect on this list. He does everything well on a baseball field with contact ability (18.9% K%), on base ability (11.3% BB%), power (18 homers), speed (12 steals), and good defense in 116 games at mostly Double-A. The power/speed combo isn’t quite big enough at only 5’9”, 195 pounds to really fly him up prospect lists, but he has a big lefty swing that makes him look much bigger in the box than his listed height, and I wouldn’t be shocked if his power surprised in the bigs. He’s a high floor prospect who might have more upside than his small stature would indicate. 2024 Projection: 41/10/33/.253/.318/.409/7 Prime Projection:  84/20/72/.273/.340/.438/14

5) Ryan Clifford NYM, 1B/OF, 20.7 – Here is what I wrote about Clifford in January of 2023 in my FYPD Target & Strategy Guide, “I’m planning on leaving every draft with Clifford, and he could be my #1 target in general. This guy checks almost every box you want to see for a monster power hitter (size, swing, lift, EV, organization, good pro debut, history of production). He also got drafted 343rd overall, meaning he should go super, super late in drafts. The one hiccup is the K rate was a bit on the high side, but the BB% was even higher to even it out, and he wasn’t expected to have major hit tool problems coming into the draft. He has legit star upside.” … you’re damn happy right now if you took my advice, as Clifford slashed .262/.374/.480 with 24 homers, 5 steals, and a 27.4%/12.5% K%/BB% in 115 games at mostly High-A. He scuffled after the trade to the Mets (so did Acuna), but I think you have to take into account an adjustment period when you join a new team, new city, new coaches etc … He’s right on track to become a high OBP, low BA slugger. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/30/86/.248/.332/.487/6

6) Christian Scott NYM, RHP, 24.10 – Scott had a truly elite 32.8%/3.4% K%/BB% in 62 IP at Double-A. He had a 107/12 K/BB in 87 IP on the season. Let’s not overthink things too much. Those are eye opening K/BB numbers and they led to a 2.57 ERA with a 0.86 WHIP. And it’s not like he did it with smoke and mirrors. He’s 6’4”, 215 pounds with a relatively easy, smooth, and athletic delivery . He throws a low to mid 90’s fastball that he can even got into the upper 90’s, and his slider is a plus, bat missing weapon. He rounds out the arsenal with a curve and change. To sum it all up, this a big man with elite control, a fastball that consistently hits the mid 90’s, a put away slider, a diverse pitch mix, and upper minors dominance. The more I think about and watch Scott, the more I love him. He’s getting considerably underrated. 2024 Projection: 3/4.22/1.28/44 in 45 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.82/1.18/169 in 160 IP

7) Alex Ramirez NYM, OF, 21.3 – Ramirez continues to sit in the breakout waiting room for his 3rd straight year. I know it’s getting frustrating, but all of the same ingredients are there that made him so exciting in previous years. He had a very good 21.9%/10.7% K%/BB% in 120 games at High-A, and he also stole 21 bags. He just needs to finally start tacking on mass to his skinny 6’3” frame, because only 7 homers with a 78 wRC+ is not going to get the job done. He’s too young to give up on such tantalizing tools, but 2024 is the last year he gets to live on “potential.” We need to see some real production. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 73/18/72/.252/.320/.423/21

8) Colin Houck NYM, SS, 19.6 – Selected 32nd overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, the 6’2”, 190 pound Houck is an excellent all around athlete who was also a heavily recruited star quarterback in high school. He’s not just raw tools though, he also has a good feel to hit with a mature approach at the plate. His value held serve in his pro debut with a dead average 100 wRC+, 0 homers, 0 steals, and a 22.2%/19.4% K%/BB% in 9 games. The power isn’t plus quite yet, and while he’s fast, he’s not lightning fast, so it all might project to an above average across the board profile. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 81/22/79/.272/.338/.453/14

9) Kevin Parada NYM, C, 22.8 – Parada had such an underwhelming season for an advanced college bat. He had 11 homers with a 25.1%/7.9% K%/BB% in 87 at High-A, and then he put up a 38.3%/6.7% K%/BB% with a 70 wRC+ in 14 games at Double-A. He didn’t hit for a ton of power, he didn’t get on base, and he didn’t hit for average. He’s not considered a good defensive catcher, so he was probably putting a ton of focus into his defense, which is often why catchers take longer to develop in general, but that isn’t exactly a point in Parada’s favor for fantasy either. He’s starting to look like a pretty low upside option with multiple areas of risk (hit tool, defense, Francisco Alvarez). ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 66/22/75/.247/.323/.447/2

10) Blade Tidwell NYM, RHP, 22.10 – The 6’4”, 207 pound Tidwell is a high upside pitcher with both control risk and reliever risk. He throws an electric fastball/slider combo with the fastball sitting mid to upper 90’s and the slider racking up whiffs. It led to a 3.09 ERA with a 33% K% in 81.2 IP at High-A and a 4.72 ERA with a 27.7% K% in 34.1 IP at Double-A. The problem is that his control is in the danger zone with a 12.9% BB%, and the changeup needs to develop into a legitimate 3rd pitch. You want to aim for upside in fantasy, which is why I like Tidwell at his current value, but he can very easily end up in the pen. 2024 Projection: 2/4.32/1.36/39 in 35 IP Prime Projection: 9/3.94/1.32/170 in 150 IP

Just Missed 

11) Marco Vargas NYM, SS, 18.10

12) Jeremy Rodriguez NYM, SS, 17.9

13) AJ Ewing NYM, 2B, 19.8 – Selected 134th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Ewing got dinged because of questionable power potential, but he’s not a small guy at a relatively strong 6’0”, and he hits the ball hard with a vicious lefty swing, so I’m not sure why that got put on him. He had a strong pro debut with a 161 wRC+, 0 homers (14.3% GB%), 1 steal, and a 28.6%/23.8% K%/BB% in 7 games. He has a good feel to hit, mature approach, above average speed, and more power than he is given credit for. He has a chance to be quite good. He makes for a great underrated FYPD target. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 82/20/79/.265/.336/.438/16

14) Mike Vasil NYM, RHP, 24.0

15) Jacob Reimer NYM, 3B, 20.1

16) Jesus Baez NYM, SS, 19.1 

17) Calvin Ziegler NYM, RHP, 21.6

18) Joander Suarez NYM, RHP, 24.1

19) Matt Rudick NYM, OF, 25.9

20) Brandon Sproat NYM, RHP, 23.7

21) Julio Zayas NYM, C, 18.2

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Opportunity is a major factor in success. I always think about how many players could have been successful major leaguers if they were given a legit opportunity and had the leash to make adjustments. As much as we want to fall in love with every poor defensive masher, or lightening fast utility type player, we have to account for the fact those types may very well never really get the opportunity to reach their full potential. There are only so many jobs available in major league baseball, and the vets who are on million dollar deals, or the high draft picks, or the high signing bonus players will get the priority over our favorite underrated prospects. Having said that, I’m going to ignore everything I just said and still go after the defensively limited Vientos this off-season. It’s easier to give advice than to take it 😉

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Chicago White Sox–Colorado Rockies–Kansas City Royals–Milwaukee Brewers–New York Yankees (free)–San Diego Padres–Washington Nationals

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-SEPTEMBER 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-SEPTEMBER 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: SEPTEMBER MAILBAG! (9/22/23)
-Off-Season content includes team dynasty reports, deep positional rankings, predicting future prospects lists, strategy articles, podcasts and very, very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)