Prospect Scouting Reports – Page 5

Posted on November 14, 2022November 22, 2022 by Michael Halpern

New York Yankees 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the New York Yankees 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 104 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: TOP 65 CATCHERS
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago White Sox—Colorado Rockies—Kansas City Royals—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—Texas Rangers—Washington Nationals

Starting Pitchers

Nestor Cortes NYY, LHP, 28.4 – Cortes might have been my biggest miss on somebody I wasn’t in on and quite clearly should have been. Andrew McCutchen said it best on Twitter, “Nestor Cortes’ fastball plays up. Meaning his 91-94 actually feels like 97. Mix that with him messing with a hitters timing, throwing from diff arm angles, and locating well, he can be very difficult to hit.” I struggled to buy into the low 90’s velocity with a below average whiff%, but he not only proved the profile will play, he also made incremental improvements. The fastball ticked up 1.1 MPH to 91.8 MPH, his 6.2% BB% is a career best and his 24.4% whiff% is now nearly average. It led to a stunning pitching line of 2.44/0.92/163/38 in 158.1 IP. The dead ball also helped, as many big strikeout pitchers started to pitch more like Cortes by pitching to contact and bringing both their K and BB rates down. I’m not making the same mistake I did last year, I’m in on Cortes. 2023 Projection: 13/3.39/1.06/175 in 170 IP

Luis Severino NYY, RHP, 29.1 – Cortes was a miss, but Severino was a definite hit. I love taking the Tommy John discount on established pitchers, and Severino was back to pitching to near elite levels with a pitching line of 3.18/1.00/112/30 in 102 IP. He missed over 2 months with a lat strain, but he looked no worse for the wear when he returned in September. He pumped the fastball in at 96.3 MPH and it put up a career best .299 xwOBA. All 3 of his secondaries were on point with his slider putting up a 41.6% whiff%, his changeup putting up a .259 xwOBA, and he went to his cutter more than ever with a 7.3% usage and 40.6% whiff%. Even with the excellent season, it still seems like he isn’t getting the respect he deserves and remains a target for me. 2023 Projection: 11/3.45/1.10/170 in 155 IP

Frankie Montas NYY, RHP, 30.0 – Montes went from a no pressure situation in the the spacious confines of Oakland, to a high stress situation with the short porch in New York, and it was unsurprisingly not a smooth transition. He had a 3.18 ERA in 104.2 IP with Oakland and a 6.35 ERA in 39.2 IP with New York. Doing it while he just had a shoulder issue he was returning from probably didn’t help things either, and the shoulder issue popped up again at the end of the season. All of this to say I think Montas will be a lot better in year 2 with a full off-season to heal and get comfortable with his new pitching environment. He throws a 5 pitch mix led by a 96.1 MPH fastball and a splitter which is excellent even in a down year with a .223 xwOBA. He has plus control (7.1% BB%) and plus whiff rates (27.6% whiff%). His disaster stint with New York could have him going for a sweetheart price this off-season, and if you’re like me in not wanting to pay up huge for the top aces, Montas will be right in my wheelhouse. 2023 Projection: 11/3.60/1.21/181 in 170 IP

Hitters

Aaron Judge FA, OF, 30.11 – Judge hit only 62 homers this year, not even coming close to the home run record of 73. His cute little 207 wRC+ was bested by Barry Bonds 5 times. He also stole only 16 bases, falling short of the vaunted 20/20 season. It was just a disappointment all around, and as a Yankees fan, it’s unacceptable. Let him walk 2023 Projection: 111/43/109/.286/.398/.562/11

Oswaldo Cabrera NYY, 2B/SS/OF, 24.1 – Cabrera had a very strong MLB Debut with a 111 wRC+, 6 homers, and 3 steals in 44 games, but I’m still staying hesitant. He outperformed his underlying numbers with a .322 wOBA vs. .287 xwOBA, he doesn’t hit the ball hard enough with a 86.8 MPH EV, he’s not that fast with a 54.9% percentile sprint speed rank, and he has below average swing and miss rates (25.7% K% and 26.9% whiff%). He also went 2 for 28 in the playoffs. Josh Rojas isn’t the worst comp, but Cabrera hits the ball in the air a lot more which gives him higher power upside and lower BA downside. He seems to be setting up for a super utility role, especially for a team like the Yankees who can open the pocketbook to fill holes. 2023 Projection: 51/14/47/.242/.309/.418/10

Bullpen

Clay Holmes NYY, Closer, 30.0 – Aroldis Chapman’s total meltdown opened the door up for Holmes, and his 97.1 MPH bowling bowl sinker did the rest. He threw it 80.1% of the time and it was the tied for the 8th most valuable sinker in the game with a negative 10 run value. His slider is a killer pitch too with a 42.9% whiff% and .174 xwOBA. It led to a pitching line of 2.54/1.02/65/20 in 63.2 IP. Aroldis Chapman is a free agent now and it seems Holmes is the heavy favorite to open the season as the closer, but I don’t think he is locked in the role if the Yanks acquire a more established closer. Kenley Jansen is a name that sticks out from the free agent pool. I wouldn’t worry too much that he will lose the role, but I would keep it in the back your mind when building your team. 2023 Projection: 4/3.28/1.08/69/30 saves in 65 IP

Top 10 New York Yankees Fantasy Baseball Prospects.

1) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 21.11 – Volpe got off to a rough start at Double-A with a .647 OPS and 24% K% in his first 37 games, but he came alive after that, slashing .286/.374/.536 with 13 homers, 26 steals, and a 14.4%/10.7% K%/BB% in 72 games. He does it all with a mature plate approach, plus game power, and plus stolen base ability. Despite the 17.7% K% at Double-A on the season, he still hit only .251 because of an extreme 56.9% flyball percentage. If the balls stay dead, it could be an issue because he isn’t a huge raw power guy at 5’11”, 180 pounds. He also struggled when he got the call to Triple-A with his K% spiking to 30.3%, and putting up a 91 wRC+ in 22 games. The profile isn’t flawless, but he has a super fantasy friendly skillset, and he was a 21 year old in the upper minors, so further refinement is surely coming. He’s an elite prospect. 2023 Projection: 38/10/35/.236/.316/.421/12 Prime Projection: 89/26/88/.267/.341/.473/21

2) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.2 – It felt like everyone was just waiting for Dominguez to fail, the ole build em up so we can tear em down, but Dominguez refused to blink. He’s now officially living up to the hype with a big 2022, slashing .273/.376/.461 with 16 homers, 37 steals, and a 24.2%/13.6% K%/BB% in 120 games mostly at Single-A and High-A. He actually performed better at High-A with a 146 wRC+ and 18.5% K%, and he even made it Double-A for 5 games and wasn’t overmatched with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 5/3 K/BB (despite a .467 OPS). His tools are still big and back up the numbers with plus speed and plus power. If he keeps this up at Double-A as a 20 year old, he’ll be in the mix for #1 fantasy prospect in the game very quickly into 2023. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 88/28/93/.261/.345/.491/18

3) Oswald Peraza NYY, SS/2B, 22.10 – Like Volpe, Peraza started the year cold with a .583 OPS and 25.6% in his first 46 games at Triple-A before turning it around. He slashed .316/.382/.560 with 14 homers, 22 steals, and a 21.4% K% in his final 53 games at the level. He got called up to the majors in September and thrived, slashing .306/.404/.429 with 1 homer, 2 steals, and a 15.8%/10.5% K%/BB% in 57 PA. Statcast backs up the numbers with a well above average .343 xwOBA and 28.9 ft/sec sprint speed. The one red flag is his 81.6/84.0 MPH AVG/FB EV. That is quite low on 40 batted balls. It’s a small sample and he obviously has more power than that, but the power numbers he put up in the minors in 2021-22 could be misleading for what he will do in the majors. 2023 Projection: 58/14/59/.246/.303/.400/16 Prime Projection: 81/21/77/.269/.327/.441/22

4) Austin Wells NYY, C, 23.8 – The Yankees took their sweet old time getting Wells to Double-A, but he didn’t disappoint when he got there, maintaining his mature plate approach with a 23.5%/11.7% K%/BB%, hitting for power with 12 homers, and showing some base stealing skills too with 7 steals in 7 attempts over 55 games. He’s kept the ball off the ground his entire career, so he’s bound to do damage with the Yanks short porch. He’s also yet to play any position other than catcher, which could indicate the Yanks are dedicated to him behind the plate. He ranked 18th overall in my Top 65 Catchers: 2023 Deep Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings on Patreon. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 77/24/79/.258/.336/.457/8

5) Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 21.11 – Selected 25th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, the 6’7”, 225 pound Jones is the lefty version of Aaron Judge, even down to the fact they each hit “only” 12 homers in their draft year. It’s the hacky comp, but it’s also one that cuts through all the BS. He had some K issues in college with 64 K’s in 61 SEC games, and a high GB% kept the homers in check. His pro debut tamped down some of those concerns though as he played like a man amongst boys, slashing .344/.425/.538 with 4 homers, 12 steals, and a 18.9%/10.4% K%/BB% in 25 games at mostly Single-A. His power is huge enough to overcome a high GB% and he’s a good athlete with stolen base skills. He’ll get plenty of love in first year player drafts, but I suspect it won’t be enough. He’s currently 6th overall in my First Year Player Draft Rankings and is pushing Top 50 overall prospect status. Go after him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/27/86/.248/.333/.480/9

6) Everson Pereira NYY, OF, 22.0 – Pereira was not able to maintain his insane power surge in 2021 (20 homers in 49 games), hitting 14 homers with a 49.5% GB% in 102 games split between High-A and Double-A. The strikeout rate remained high as well with a 26.8% K% at High-A and 30.1% K% at Double-A. A high strikeout rate with a high groundball rate is not the best combo, but he has the type of raw power and speed (21 steals) to make it work a la Randy Arozarena. He still put up a 120 wRC+ and 128 wRC+ at High-A and Double-A, respectively. It’s a high risk, high reward profile who has still has a wide range of outcomes despite being 21 years old with a taste of the upper minors. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 79/23/77/.251/.332/.447/15

7) Matt Sauer NYY, RHP, 24.2 – Sauer’s 4.54 ERA in 109 IP at High-A (88.1 IP) and Double-A (20.2 IP) is not indicative of how good he looked. He has no joke stuff with a plus mid 90’s fastball that moves, a plus slider, and a lesser used quality changeup. Here is he striking out 17 batters in his 3rd game at Double-A to give you an idea of the upside we are talking about. He had a 26.5%/9.3% K%/BB% at High-A and 37%/7.6% K%/BB% at Double-A. His control/command is below average and he has an injury history (he left his final start of the year with an undisclosed injury), so the bullpen risk is high, but he’s a no doubt target of mine in the later rounds of off-season prospect drafts, especially because New York traded so much of their pitching depth at the deadline. He could also be nasty out of the pen. 2023 Projection: 2/4.21/1.34/32 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.81/1.28/169 in 155 IP

8) Estiven Florial NYY, OF, 25.4 – Florial burst on the scene in 2017 as the ultimate high risk, high reward prospect, and 6 years later he remains that way, although neither the risk nor the reward are quite as high. He had a strong season at Triple-A with a 124 wRC+ in 101 games, but the 30.4% K% is still in the danger zone and his power has yet to fully breakout with 15 homers. He got some run in the majors and the K% spiked to 37.1% with a negative 7 wRC+ in 35 PA. He’s a plus defensive centerfielder, so it seems he will be used as a bench outfielder earlier in his career, with the hope he continues to grow into his considerable raw offensive talent as a later career breakout. 2023 Projection: 19/5/22/.222/.294/.389/7 Prime Projection: 73/18/61/.238/.311/.413/16

9) Trey Sweeney NYY, SS, 22.11 – Sweeney didn’t have a huge year, which would have been nice to see considering his competition in college wasn’t that strong in the Ohio Valley Conference, but it was still solid, slashing .240/.349/.413 with 16 homers, 31 steals, and a 23.2%/13.0 K%/BB% in 111 games split between High-A (100 games) and Double-A (11 games). He’s 6’4”, 200 pounds with a pretty viscous lefty swing, so there is more power in here to unlock, and he doesn’t have any major strikeout or groundball issues. He’s not that fast, so the stolen bases are likely a mirage, but it’s a good sign that he can contribute there. I’m very happy with my evaluation of him last off-season, as I liked him, but didn’t go crazy over him at 16th overall in my 2022 FYPD ranks. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/22/81/.253/.327/.448/7

10) Keiner Delgado NYY, 2B/3B, 19.3 – Delgado was an 18 year old in the DSL, and he’s only 5’8”, 145 pounds, but everything else looks so good I just couldn’t leave him off this list. He slashed .310/.504/.506 with 3 homers, 34 steals, and an 11.8%/24.4% K%/BB% in 52 games. He’s an excellent athlete who hits the ball hard and has a 47.7% FB%, so he’ll get the most out of his raw power. Jose Altuve is the dream outcome, but there are lesser outcomes that would still make him an impact fantasy player. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 81/15/66/.268/.339/.420/19

11) Brandon Mayea NYY, OF, 17.5 – Mayea is my #2 overall international prospect behind Felnin Celesten. He might not be physically imposing at 5’11”, 170 pounds, but he’s far from weak with the ball exploding off his bat in every video I’ve seen. He has a good feel to hit with an easy and athletic righty swing to go along with plus speed. He’s expected to sign for over $4 million. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 82/22/76/.275/.345/.458/15

Just Missed

12) Roderick Arias NYY, SS, 18.7

13) Will Warren NYY, RHP, 23.9

14) Andres Chaparro NYY, 3B, 23.11

15) Luis Serna NYY, RHP, 18.9

16) Randy Vasquez NYY, RHP, 24.5

17) Drew Thorpe NYY, LHP, 22.6

18) Enmanuel Tejada NYY, SS, 18.3

19) Richard Fitts NYY, RHP, 23.4

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

It can be so tempting to pay up for a career year, but it almost always ends up being an overpay. Just look at Salvador Perez this year vs. what he did in 2021. It’s not like they don’t have the ability to repeat, because they obviously just did it, it’s just that literally everything has to go right from luck to health and everything in between. A career year in a contract year is the scariest, because who knows what extra work the guy was willing to put in behind the scenes that he may be a bit more lax on after he scores a $500 million contract. I’m obviously talking about Aaron Judge here, but it applies to every veteran who just had the best year of their career. You are way better off looking for the guy who has the ability to put up that career season, but didn’t for whatever reason, rather than going after the guy who just did it.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on February 7, 2022February 10, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Atlanta Braves 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

We complete the Dynasty Team Report series today with the Atlanta Braves. Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys and talk some team specific strategy for every team to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. Here is the Atlanta Braves 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

THE COMPLETE TOP 1,000 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS IS OUT ON MY PATREON NOW (A SPREADSHEET VERSION IS LIVE TOO)!!! LINKS ARE INCLUDED TO THE TOP 500 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECTS RANKINGS AND THE TOP 100 2022 FYPD RANKINGS (THE FULL LIST WILL BE RELEASED FOR FREE ON MY WEBSITE SOMETIME IN MARCH)

Hitters

Austin Riley ATL, 3B, 25.0 – Seeds of a breakout were already starting to show in 2020 beneath his mediocre surface stats, and that breakout blossomed hardcore in 2021, slashing .303/.367/.531 with 33 homers and a 25.4%/7.9% K%/BB%. He keeps improving his hit tool with a career best 28.3% whiff% and he made major strides against offspeed pitches with a .369 xwOBA against them (.223 in 2020). He’s not a real .300 hitter, but there is real juice in his bat. 2022 Projection: 85/31/98/.275/.340/.511/0

Jorge Soler FRA, OF, 30.1 – Soler’s underlying numbers were strong all year, but he didn’t breakout until getting to Atlanta, putting up a .882 OPS in 55 games with Atlanta after disappointing with a .658 OPS in 94 games with KC. He had a career best 23.6% K% and 29.2% whiff% while still absolutely smoking the ball with a 117.9 Max EV that was in the top 1% of the league. He’s horrible on defense, which is the one thing that could impact his playing time depending on where he lands. 2022 Projection: 81/34/88/.252/.339/.484/0

Starting Pitchers

Ian Anderson ATL, RHP, 23.11 – Shoulder inflammation limited Anderson to 128.1 IP. He wasn’t able to maintain his excellent 2020 strikeout numbers (29.7 K% in 2020 vs. 23.2% in 2021), but his 28.5% whiff% was much better (28.9% in 2020), and his seconadaries were still getting plenty of whiffs. He kept the ball on the ground with a 6.4 degree launch angle. It all led to a solid season with a pitching line of 3.58/1.23/124/53. I’m still all in on Anderson. His best years are ahead of him. 2022 Projection: 11/3.48/1.19/175 in 160 IP

Huascar Ynoa ATL, RHP, 23.10 – Ynoa missed 3 months of the season after punching the dugout and breaking his hand in May, but the more concerning injury is the shoulder inflammation that shut him down in the playoffs. Even with the injury risk he makes for an enticing target with a plus slider (.240 xwOBA) that he threw 48.2% of the time. It led to a 26.9%/6.7% K%/BB% with a 4.05 ERA. He didn’t go to the changeup often (7% usage), although it was effective when he did go to it (42.9% whiff%), and while he fires an electric 96.5 MPH fastball, it was quite hittable with a 92.6 MPH EV against and 14.6% whiff%. He’s also never displayed this level of control before, so there is some regression risk. 2022 Projection: 9/4.11/1.31/155 in 145 IP

Relief Pitching

Will Smith ATL, Closer, 32.9 – Smith has one plus pitch, but it is a damn good one with his slider putting up an elite .170 xwOBA with a 49.1% whiff%. He has sole possession of Atlanta’s closer job. 2022 Projection: 4/3.51/1.18/82/34 in 65 IP

Atlanta Braves Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects

1) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 21.1 – Harris is an explosive player who hits the ball hard with above average contact rates (18.1% K%) and plus speed (27 steals in 101 games at High-A). He hit only 7 homers because of a high 50.3% GB% and his home ballpark is an extreme pitcher’s park, so he has more power than he showed. He will have to raise his launch angle if he wants to unlock more of it though. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 83/18/71/.271/.330/.423/18

2) Shea Langeliers ATL, C, 24.5 – Langeliers’ answered the questions about his ultimate power potential this year after hitting just 2 homers in his 54 game pro debut in 2019. He brought his GB% down 9.7 percentage points to 30.7% and jacked out 22 homers in 97 games at mostly Double-A. It does come with some swing and miss, striking out 26.2% of the time at Double-A and 42.9% at Triple-A (in 14 PA). 2022 Projection: 12/3/15/.236/.302/.417/0 Prime Projection: 62/23/69/.252/.321/.444/1

3) Kyle Muller ATL, LHP, 24.6 – Muller has plus stuff with a 93.4 fastball and two swing and miss secondaries in his slider (34.6% whiff%) and curve (48.1% whiff%). It resulted in a 30.8% whiff% on the MLB level and a 27% K% at Triple-A, but his poor control makes him high risk with a 12.9% BB% (12.2% at Triple-A). There is plenty of competition in Atlanta for rotation spots, so he could end up in the pen, especially early in his career. 2022 Projection: 3/4.03/1.35/71 in 65 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.83/1.32/169 in 155 IP

4) Spencer Strider ATL, RHP, 23.5 – Strider made his pro debut in 2021 and made it all the way to the majors for 2.1. IP. He racked up strikeouts in the minors with a plus fastball/slider combo, putting up a 153/40 K/BB with a 3.64 ERA in 94 IP at mostly Double-A. His fastball consistently hits the upper 90’s, and the slider is potentially plus, but without a real third pitch there is a reliever risk. 2022 Projection: 2/4.25/1.33/45 in 40 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.01/1.30/162 in 150 IP

5) Vaughn Grissom ATL, SS, 21.3 – Grissom’s advanced plate approach transferred to full season ball with a 14.2%/11.8% K%/BB% in 87 games split between Single-A and High-A. He hit only 7 homers and his GB% was high, but at 6’3”, 180 pounds there should be more in the tank. He was 16 for 19 on the bases, and while he’s not a true burner and it’s hard to trust stolen base numbers in the lower minors, he should contribute in steals. He has average to above average across the board potential. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 83/20/76/.273/.347/.448/9

6) Ryan Cusick ATL, RHP, 22.5 – Selected 24th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, the ball absolutely explodes out of Cusick’s hand with a mid to upper 90’s fastball and a plus curve. He racks up strikeouts with 108 K’s in 70 IP, but control is a major issue with 32 walks, and his 4.24 ERA (1.39 WHIP) isn’t exactly great. His control looked better in his small sample pro debut with 4 walks in 16.1 IP at Single-A, and it didn’t impact his K rate at all with 34 strikeouts. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/3.89/1.33/169 in 158 IP

7) Drew Waters ATL, OF, 23.3 – Waters is a great athlete with plus speed and plus power potential, but his warts are starting to overshadow his strengths. He put up a .710 OPS with a 30.9% K% and 19.6% FB% in 103 games at Triple-A. Striking out a lot and hitting the ball on the ground is not a great combo, although his speed (28 stolen bases) can make up for some of that. There is plenty of time for it to click, but the Waters’ doubters were proven right in 2021. 2022 Projection: 9/1/8/.217/.280/.373/2 Prime Projection: 74/15/68/.242/.313/.414/12

8) Cristian Pache ATL, OF, 23.5 – Pache struggled hard in the majors to start the season with a negative 8 wRC+ in 22 games, and he didn’t look all that hot when he got sent down to Triple-A either with a 27.5% K% and 100 wRC+ in 89 games. His bat was always expected to bloom late as his plus centerfield defense is his carrying tool, but for fantasy purposes I’m not sure he is worth the wait. You can probably get back in later. 2022 Projection: 11/2/9/.225/.281/.384/2 Prime Projection: 75/21/79/.273/.338/.451/17

9) Diego Benitez ATL, SS, 17.4 – Benitez signed for $2.5 million this year and he has the requisite skills to back that up. He has potentially plus power with an already pretty powerful righty swing. He combines that with a solid plate approach and some speed. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 76/24/83/.257/.328/.458/6

10) Freddy Tarnok ATL, RHP, 23.4 – Tarnok is 6’3”, 185 pounds with a big mid 90’s fastball, plus curve, and developing change. He performed the best he ever has in 2021, even going back to college, with a pitching line of 3.44/1.15/109/28 in 73.1 IP split between High-A and Double-A. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.02/1.31/158 in 160 IP

Strategy

Atlanta has a bunch of starting spots open in their lineup right now, but they will likely be filled by free agent signings once everything opens back up again. They also have a ton of talented young pitching, so many of their pitching prospects might have to break in as relievers. There are rumors the Yankees are now getting in the mix for Freeman, but using the Yankees as leverage in free agency is a tale as old as time. I’m still expecting him to be back with Atlanta.

Previous Teams
Arizona Diamondbacks–Baltimore Orioles-Boston Red Sox (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds–Cleveland Indians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Los Angeles Angels (free)–Los Angeles Dodgers (free)–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees–Oakland Athletics–Philadelphia Phillies–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres (free)–San Francisco Giants–Seattle Mariners–St. Louis Cardinals (free)–Tampa Bay Rays (free)–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on January 24, 2022January 26, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: 2022 Top 100 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings

I’m dropping rankings galore on my patreon as I lead up to the release of the 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings. Here is the 2022 Top 100 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THIS ARTICLE AND TONS OF CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
–A Top 413 Sneak Peek of my 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings with more early releases coming all off-season
–Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Top 278 SP/Top 256 OF/Top 122 SS/Top 88 3B/Top 90 2B/Top 78 1B/Top 56 C)
–Top 50 First Year Player Draft Rankings (full Top 100 coming out with the Top 1,000 Rankings)
-Dynasty Team Reports for every team (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Tier 1

1) Bobby Witt Jr. KC, SS, 21.9 – Bobby Witt showed out so much in Spring Training that there were whispers he would make the opening day roster, and he probably should have because Double-A and Triple-A proved no match for him. He slashed .290/.361/.575 with 33 homers, 29 steals, and a 23.2%/9.0% K%/BB% in 123 games. It will be ridiculous if he doesn’t break camp with the team in 2022. 2022 Projection: 78/26/84/.260/.329/.472/18 Prime Projection: 94/33/101/.277/.351/.541/23

2) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 21.3 – Rodriguez did it all in 2021. He brought his BB% up to 12.6% (6.8% in 2019), he stole 21 bases (in 26 attempts) in just 74 games, and he obliterated the upper levels of the minors, slashing .362/.461/.546 with 7 homers, 16 steals, and a 37/29 K/BB in 46 games at Double-A. He’s in a two man race with Bobby Witt for the #1 overall prospect in baseball. 2022 Projection:59/17/63/.277/.342/.472/6 Prime Projection: 98/35/110/.291/.378/.575/11

Tier 2

3) Spencer Torkelson DET, 3B/1B, 22.7 – Tork is a 6’1”, 220 pound bull with a swing geared towards launching bombs. And that is all he’s done in his baseball career, crushing 25 homers in 55 games as a freshman in the Pac 12, ripping 23 homers as a sophomore, and now smashing 30 bombs in his pro debut over 121 games split pretty evenly across 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA). He does all this with an advanced plate approach (13% BB% at Triple-A) and without any major strikeout worries (20.3% K% at Triple-A). 2022 Projection: 72/27/74/.252/.337/.485/3 Prime Projection: 96/35/105/.275/.372/.533/3

4) Riley Greene DET, OF, 21.6 – Greene is 6’3”, 200 pounds with a smooth lefty swing that is geared for power and average. He just steamrolled through the upper levels of the minors as a 20 year old, slashing .301/.387/.534 with 24 homers, 16 steals (in 17 attempts), and a 27.4%/11.3% K%/BB% split between Double-A and Triple-A. Stolen bases weren’t supposed to be a major part of his game, but he obviously is a very savvy base stealer as he is 21 for 22 on the bases in his pro career. The K% is high, but I’m betting on that coming down as he gains more experience. 2022 Projection: 49/14/45/.255/.330/.462/5 Prime Projection: 102/30/98/.281/.364/.518/10

5) Brennen Davis CHC, OF, 22.5 – Davis is 6’4”, 210 pounds with easy power and no problems keeping the ball off the ground. He smacked 19 homers in 99 games split across 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA). Like many guys this tall, he has some strikeout issues with a 28.7% K%, and while he will definitely chip in with steals, he went 6 for 10 in 76 Double-A games and he didn’t attempt a steal in 15 Triple-A games. The upside is very high, but there is still some risk here too. 2022 Projection:48/17/55/.242/.313/.441/7 Prime Projection: 88/33/99/.261/.338/.510/11

6) CJ Abrams SD, SS, 21.6 – A fractured tibia and sprained MCL ended Abrams season after just 42 games. He proved his plus hit tool and speed will transfer against advanced competition at Double-A, slashing .296/.363/.420 with 2 homers, 13 steals (in 15 attempts), and a 19.7%/8.2% K%/BB%. His power isn’t there yet, and there is a chance it will never be a major part of his game, but he still looks pretty skinny to me at 6’2”, 185 pounds and don’t think those man muscles have come in yet. The power will tick up in time. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 95/18/75/.288/.342/.437/27

7) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 22.4 – Rodriguez is the total package with the potential for 4 plus pitches and above average control. He put up a 45.5%/5.7% K%/BB% in 23.1 IP at High-A and then followed that up with a 39%/7.1% K%/BB% in 79.2 IP at Double-A. He’s the #1 pitching prospect in the game. 2022 Projection: 4/3.88/1.21/77 in 69 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.32/1.08/228 in 195 IP

8) Shane Baz TBR, RHP, 22.10 – Baz’ control took two huge steps forward, going from well below average to near elite with a 1.7% BB% at Double-A, 6.2% at Triple-A, and 6.1% in the majors. He sacrificed nothing to do it, throwing an elite 97 MPH fastball that put up 30.4% whiff%. He combines that with two plus breaking balls in his slider (40.7% whiff%) and curve (50% whiff%), while his changeup lags behind. He’s in a two man race with Grayson Rodriguez for the top pitching prospect in baseball. 2022 Projection: 9/3.78/1.20/148 in 130 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.35/1.07/220 in 187 IP

9) Adley Rutschman BAL, C, 24.2 – Rutschman dominated the upper levels of the minors with an elite plate approach (90/79 K/BB in 123 games) and plus power (23 homers). He has an argument to be the #1 overall prospect in real baseball because of his at least plus catcher defense, but in fantasy, being a catcher only causes more problems with wear and tear and more days off. He should open the 2022 season as Baltimore’s starting catcher, but service time manipulation might also come into play. 2022 Projection: 69/22/63/.262/.341/.449/2 Prime Projection: 86/27/84/.276/.364/.493/3

Tier 3

10) Zac Veen COL, OF, 20.4 – Veen is 6’4”, 190 pounds with a violent lefty swing that is made to hit rockets. He’s pretty skinny now, so if he puts on weight, his power upside is scary. He backed up the hype in his pro debut, slashing .301/.399/.501 with 15 homers, 36 steals in 53 attempts, and a 26.3%/13.4% K%/BB% in 106 games at Single-A. You have to throw out the steal numbers because of the Single-A rule changes, and he also wasn’t very successful, but seeing he loves to run this much is a good sign. He has elite fantasy upside, especially in Coors. I’m buying high. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 99/32/103/.277/.358/.519/13

11) Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 23.6 – It took only 2 MLB games for Cruz to put the entire league on notice. He went 3 for 9 with 1 homer and 4/0 K/BB, but it was the elite exit velocity readings that really popped. He had a silly 100.5 MPH average exit velocity, and he hit a 118.2 MPH line drive single that was the 7th hardest hit ball all season. At 6’7”, 210 pounds, Cruz’ raw power is in rarified air. He’s had high groundball rates his entire career, but he’s slowly been improving them, putting up a 47.3% GB% in 62 games at Double-A and a 31.3% GB% in 6 games at Triple-A. Speaking of his 6 game taste of Triple-A, he went nuclear with 5 homers and a 5/8 K/BB. Oh yea, he also has plus speed with 19 steals in 22 attempts. There will inevitably be some swing and miss to his game, and I don’t think he is completely out of the woods with his high groundball rates, but Cruz very well might have the highest pure upside of anybody in the minors. 2022 Projection:72/24/81/.257/.320/.468/17 Prime Projection: 92/30/101/.272/.335/.518/16

12) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 20.11 – The power breakout came well before schedule as Volpe cranked 27 homers in 109 games split between Single-A and High-A. The Yankees drafted Volpe 30th overall in 2019 based on his hit hit tool, speed, and defense, so the power explosion puts Volpe in elite prospect territory. If you play in a shallow to medium sized league where you can’t pick up prospects during the season, Volpe should very likely be the top pick in your off-season prospect draft. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 92/26/89/.278/.352/.481/15

13) Noelvi Marte SEA, SS, 20.5 – Marte has a powerful righty swing that is both under control and lightening quick. It reminds me a bit of Manny Machado. He showed a mature plate approach (22.2%/12.1% K%/BB%), plus power (17 homers in 99 games), and speed (23 for 30 on the bases) in his full season debut as a 19 year old. He has the upside to be a perennial first rounder in fantasy. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 91/33/103/.276/.362/.547/12

14) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 21.7 – Shoulder surgery ended Carroll’s season after just 7 games, but he managed to make such a great impression in those games, along with strong reports from the 2020 alt site, that he should still be considered a near elite prospect. He’s an explosive player with an at least plus contact/speed combo. His power has been underrated even from before he was drafted because he is only 5’10”, but he puts a sting into the baseball. Shoulder injuries are known to sap power, but he is young enough that you have to assume a full recovery. As high as his value is now, it might shoot through the roof not far into 2022. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 89/20/78/.283/.367/.463/28

15) Robert Hassell SDP, OF, 20.7 – Hassell dominated Single-A (139 wRC+) with a plus plate approach (17.2%/13.3% K%/BB%) and speed (31 steals), but he only hit 7 homers in 92 games with a 52.1% GB%. He then went to High-A for 18 games and proved he has the ability to make adjustments to get to his power, jacking 2 homers with a 32.7% GB%. The K% rose with the power to 28.7%, but it’s still a good sign he will eventually be able to put it all together. He’s 6’2’’, 195 pounds, so while he is expected to be a hit tool, speed guy, I wouldn’t rule out a power explosion. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 93/18/74/.277/.358/.446/23

16) Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 22.2 – Casas in 6’4”, 252 pounds with double plus raw power and a mature approach at the plate. He put up a 19.1%/15.4% in 86 games at mostly Double-A (9 games at Triple-A). He has a textbook lefty swing with very little movement, and he rarely sells out to get to his power. His homer totals don’t jump out at you with only 14 homers, but he doesn’t have any major groundball issues with a 42.8% GB% (34.6% GB% at Triple-A), so even if he doesn’t make adjustments to unlock more power, he will still hit plenty of homers while maintaining a high BA. He’s in the mold of a Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt if he hits his ceiling. 2022 Projection: 36/10/41/.253/.334/.469/2 Prime Projection: 96/32/102/.276/.365/.515/4

17) Hunter Greene CIN, RHP, 22.8 – Greene is a mountain of a man at 6’5”, 230 pounds and he puts that frame to good use by consistently pumping in upper 90’s fastballs that reach 100+ MPH often. Even his changeup is 90+ MPH and it has the potential to be a nasty pitch with good drop and tail action. The slider was much improved this year and has the potential to be a plus pitch. He used all of those weapons to put up a pitching line of 3.30/1.18/139/38 in 106.1 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s not a finished product, but Greene truly has the upside to be the best pitcher in baseball one day. 2022 Projection: 6/3.88/1.32/112 in 100 IPPrime Projection: 14/3.39/1.12/222 in 185 IP

18) Josh Lowe TBR, OF, 24.2 – Lowe blew up at Triple-A, slashing .291/.381/.535 with 22 homers, 26 steals (in 26 attempts), and a 26.2%/13% K%/BB% in 111 games. I’ve been high on him since his 2019 breakout because he is a premium athlete at 6’4”, 205 pounds with a plus power/speed combo and high walk rates. Even though his K% remained high, his hit tool took a step forward this year, which is the one thing that could hold him back. 2022 Projection: 23/7/21/.237/.310/.428/6 Prime Projection: 84/24/76/.256/.338/.467/16

19) Francisco Alvarez NYM, C, 20.4 – Alvarez is a bulldog at the plate at 5’10”, 233 pounds with massive raw power and a precocious plate approach. He put up a silly 227 wRC+ with a 10.4%/22.4% K%/BB% in 15 games at the age appropriate Single-A before he went to High-A and bashed 22 homers in 82 games. This is a do it all, middle of the order bat who has a good chance of sticking at catcher. Rutschman is going to have some competition for that top spot in a couple years. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/30/92/.272/.355/.495/4

20) Josh Jung TEX, 3B, 24.2 – A stress fracture in his foot delayed the start of Jung’s season, but he came back angry, demolishing the upper levels of the minors. He slashed .326/.398/.592 with 19 homers and a 22.2%/9.1% K%/BB% in 78 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. Both of his home ballparks juice up homers, but he was even more dominant on the road. He has at least plus power and he should be able to hit for a pretty good average too. Texas might play team control games with him, but he deserves to be their starting 3B out the gate. 2022 Projection:68/22/77/.258/.327/.455/2 Prime Projection: 86/29/90/.272/.344/.496/3

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on January 17, 2022January 18, 2022 by Michael Halpern

San Diego Padres 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys and talk some team specific strategy for every team to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the San Diego Padres 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
–A Top 413 Sneak Peek of my 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings with more early releases coming all off-season
–Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Top 256 OF/Top 122 SS/Top 88 3B/Top 90 2B/Top 78 1B/Top 56 C)
–Top 50 First Year Player Draft Rankings (full Top 100 coming out with the Top 1,000 Rankings)
-Dynasty Team Reports for every team (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

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Arizona Diamondbacks–Baltimore Orioles-Boston Red Sox (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds–Cleveland Indians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Los Angeles Dodgers (free)–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees–Oakland Athletics–Philadelphia Phillies–Pittsburgh Pirates–Seattle Mariners–San Francisco Giants–St. Louis Cardinals (free)–Tampa Bay Rays (free)–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

Hitters

Manny Machado SD, 3B, 29.9 – Machado’s underlying power numbers exploded this year, shattering career highs in exit velocity (93.1 MPH), Max EV (119.6 MPH) and HardHit% (52.2%). The gains didn’t really show up in his surface stats with 28 homers and a .836 OPS, but at the very least it is reminder of how elite Machado can be. He’s been a bit inconsistent in his career, going back and forth between great years and solid years since 2017, so if the trend holds, he is in for one hell of a 2022. He doesn’t seem to be getting the respect he deserves in early dynasty drafts, and if you can buy low based on the mediocre surface stats, I would jump on it. 2022 Projection: 94/34/103/.283/.354/.522/10

Trent Grisham SD, OF, 25.5 – Grisham couldn’t maintain his 2020 power breakout with his HardHit% dropping 5 percentage points to 36.8%, his Max EV dropping 2.5 MPH to 109.4 MPH and his launch angle dropping 1.2 degrees to 12.3 degrees. He’s still showing a plus plate approach with plus speed, so if the power ticks back up as he enters his mid 20’s, he can be an above average all category contributor. I’m buying low if I can. 2022 Projection: 84/22/81/.257/.354/.445/15

Ha-Seong Kim SD, SS/3B/2B, 26.5 – Kim was put in position to fail. He is a young player who needs full time at-bats to be given the chance to adjust to MLB pitching. He never really got that shot and he struggled all season with a .622 OPS. The underlying numbers aren’t hopeless though with a solid 23.8%/7.4% K%/BB%, plus runtimes (28.4 ft/s sprint speed), and the ability to lift the ball (13 degree launch angle). He’ll need to hit the ball harder in 2022 (86.8/91 MPH AVG/FB EV) to convince San Diego he deserves a full time job. 2022 Projection: 43/12/47/.241/.310/.412/10

Starting Pitchers

Blake Snell SD, LHP, 29.4 – It took Snell until August to find his groove, but it was a sight to behold when he did with a 1.83 ERA and 65/14 K/BB in 44.1 IP. A left adductor strain (groin), ended his season in mid September, but that shouldn’t be a concern moving forward. He got lit up with a 5.44 ERA in 84.1 IP before that because he completely lost his control with 55 walks. Robbie Ray is a good reminder to never give up on strikeout machines with control problems, especially in fantasy. I’ll take any discount I can get on Snell. He ranked 83rd overall on my Top 413 Sneak Peek of the 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings. 2022 Projection: 11/3.58/1.26/204 in 160 IP

Chris Paddack SDP, RHP, 26.3 – Paddack wasn’t able to bounce back from a down 2020, notching a 5.07 ERA in 108.1 IP. His K% dropped to a career low 21.6% and batters hit him hard with a 90.5 MPH EV against. Even his changeup regressed this year with a slightly below average .315 xwOBA. Along with performance issues, his rotation spot is far from guaranteed. I’m avoiding him in 2022. 2022 Projection: 7/4.23/1.25/116 in 120 IP

Adrian Morejon SDP, LHP, 23.1 – Underwent Tommy John surgery in late April 2021 and will likely be out until mid-season 2022. Morejon was one of my favorite targets last off-season with a 96.3 MPH fastball and 3 potentially plus, swing and miss secondaries in his changeup, curve and slider. He added a sinker to the mix this year and the extremely small sample results were positive with a 30.8% whiff% and negative 3 degree launch angle. He seems mostly forgotten about, but he has the kind of premium stuff that is worth waiting on. He is an easy flier that you can probably get for close to nothing at this point. 2022 Projection: 3/4.12/1.31/62 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.79/1.24/177 in 162 IP

Bullpen

Dinelson Lamet SDP, RHP, 29.8 – Lamet can’t shake the injury bug as elbow/forerm problems limited him to 47 IP and he was moved to the bullpen in September. The fastball/slider combo wasn’t as elite as it was in 2020, but it was still good with a 95.5 MPH fastball and a slider that put up a .204 xwOBA. His role for 2022 is undetermined, and it is possible he ends up as San Diego’s closer. While I don’t mind taking a flier, his name value could push his value higher than I’m willing to pay. 2022 Projection: 5/3.71/1.23/105 in 85 IP

San Diego Padres Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects

1) CJ Abrams SDP, SS, 21.6 – A fractured tibia and sprained MCL ended Abrams season after just 42 games. He proved his plus hit tool and speed will transfer against advanced competition at Double-A, slashing .296/.363/.420 with 2 homers, 13 steals (in 15 attempts), and a 19.7%/8.2% K%/BB% at Double-A. His power isn’t there yet, and there is a chance it will never be a major part of his game, but he still looks pretty skinny to me at 6’2”, 185 pounds and don’t think those man muscles have come in yet. The power will tick up in time. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 95/18/75/.288/.342/.437/27

2) Robert Hassell SDP, OF, 20.7 – Hassell dominated Single-A (139 wRC+) with a plus plate approach (17.2%/13.3% K%/BB%) and speed (31 steals), but he only hit 7 homers in 92 games with a 52.1% GB%. He then went to High-A for 18 games and proved he has the ability to make adjustments to get to his power, jacking 2 homers with a 32.7% GB%. The K% rose with the power to 28.7%, but it’s still a good sign he will eventually be able to put it all together. He’s 6’2’’, 195 pounds, so while he is expected to be a hit tool, speed guy, I wouldn’t rule out a power explosion. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 93/18/74/.277/.358/.446/23

3) James Wood SDP, OF, 19.7 – Selected 62nd overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Wood is a big and athletic lefty at 6’7”, 240 pounds with plus power and above average run times. He dominated rookie ball in his pro debut, slashing .372/.465/.535 with 3 homers, 10 steals and a 31.7%/12.9% K%/BB% in 26 games. Like any player this tall, he has some hit tool concerns, and his GB% was a bit high at 49%. This is basically the Oneil Cruz starter kit. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 73/24/81/.247/.326/.458/9

4) Victor Acosta SDP, SS, 17.10 – Acosta signed for $1.8 million in last years international class and he impressed right out of the gate in pro ball, slashing .285/.431/.484 with 5 homers, 26 steals, and a 18.8%/15.8% K%/BB% in 56 games in the DSL. He’s a switch hitter who hits well from both sides of the plate, but his lefty swing looks particularly dangerous to me. If his power fully develops, he has superstar upside, and even if it doesn’t his hit tool and speed are enough to make him a truly impact player. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 87/20/78/.274/.352/.445/24

5) MacKenzie Gore SDP, LHP, 23.1 – Gore’s alt site reports in 2020 were mediocre at best, and we saw those problems play out in 2021 with a pitching line of 3.93/1.47/61/28 in 50.1 IP (6.35 ERA with a 8/6 K/BB in 11.1 IP in the AFL). He showed control issues, delivery issues, and inconsistent stuff. At his best he still flashed 4 plus pitches from the left side, so he is far form a lost cause, but he is also far from a finished product. 2022 Projection: 2/4.42/1.37/42 in 45 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.88/1.32/168 in 155 IP

6) Luis Campusano SD, C, 23.6 – Campusano unlocked his power in 2021 with a career best 40.2% GB, leading to 15 homers in 81 games at Triple-A. He had a 52.2% HardHit% on 23 batted balls in his MLB cup of coffee this year. He couldn’t keep up the elite 11.7% K% he put up at High-A in 2019 with a 20.2% K% in 2021 (37.9% whiff% in the majors), so I think his ultimate batting average is more of a question than his power at this point. 2022 Projection: 25/7/28/.248/.308/.424/0 Prime Projection: 69/22/76/.266/.327/.462/0

7) Samuel Zavala SDP, OF, 17.9 – Zavala signed for $1.2 million in last year’s international class and like Acosta he lived up to the signing in his pro debut, slashing .297/.400/.487 with 3 homers, 11 steals (in 18 attempts) and a 15.3%/13.6% K%/BB% in 55 games in the DSL. He has an easy, smooth lefty swing with an advanced plate approach and developing power. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 83/22/78/.274/.348/.462/7

8) Jackson Merrill SDP, SS, 18.11 – Selected 27th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Merrill surely looks the part at 6’3”, 195 pounds with a sweet looking lefty swing. He was solid in his pro debut with a 22.5%/8.3% K%/BB% and 5 steals in 31 games, but he hit 0 homers and put up a 92 wRC+. He doesn’t really have a standout offensive skill, but you don’t have to be a super scout to watch him and realize there is definitely potential in the bat. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 73/21/79/.262/.327/.438/7

9) Eddy Beltre SDP, OF, 18.0 – Beltre was a DSL standout, slashing .295/.423/.446 with 3 homers, 24 steals, and a 16.8%/13.9% K%/BB% in 32 games. He has double plus speed with a good feel to hit and developing power. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 78/18/71/.267/.332/.427/23

10) Joshua Mears SDP, OF, 21.1 – Mears is 6’3”, 230 pounds with massive raw power that he has no trouble getting to. He crushed 17 homers with a 51.2% FB% in 71 games at Single-A, but it comes with extreme strikeout issues (39.2%/12.4% K%/BB%). ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 58/20/66/.223/.313/.453/4

11) Daniel Montesino SDP, 1B/OF, 18.2 – Montesino got a million bucks in last year’s international class. He is a bat first prospect with some defensive concerns, so there is a lot of pressure on his bat, but so far, so good as he slashed .316/.444/.489 with 4 homers, 8 steals, and a 21.8%/17.7% K%/BB% in 56 games in the DSL. He has the potential to hit for both power and average at peak. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 69/24/78/.254/.331/.450/4

Strategy

San Diego has the 6th best pitcher’s park in baseball, making all of their pitchers great targets. It makes me love Morejon even more. Their ballpark is particularly death of left handed hitters, majorly suppressing homers, so it does make me worry a bit about a power breakout for someone like Grisham (he hit 4 homers at home and 11 on the road in 2021) who doesn’t have huge raw power. It could also impact the upside of Cronenworth, and we’ve all basically given up on a Hosmer homer breakout.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on November 15, 2021December 26, 2021 by Michael Halpern

Tampa Bay Rays 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys and talk some team specific strategy for every team to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Tampa Bay Rays 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
–A Top 100 Sneak Peek of my 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings with more early releases coming all off-season
-Dynasty Team Reports for every team (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)
–Positional Dynasty Rankings
-End of Season 2021 Top 466 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
-End of Season 2021 Top 322 Dynasty Prospects Rankings

Hitters

Wander Franco TBR, SS, 21.1 – I ranked Franco 14th overall on my 2021 Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings, writing, “the floor is so high due to that innate hitting ability that he doesn’t have the normal risks associated with prospects.” Kelenic was my #2 overall prospect, but I ranked him 52nd on the dynasty list because he simply didn’t have that elite floor. And that is exactly how it played out in 2021 with Franco putting up a 12% K% en route to a solid MLB debut, slashing .288/.347/.463 with 7 homers and 2 steals in 70 games (he also knocked out 2 homers in 4 playoff games). The underlying skills are there for a homer/steal breakout as he notched a 28.5 ft/sec sprint speed, 88.2 MPH EV and 9.7 degree launch angle. The arrow is only pointing way up from here. 2022 Projection: 101/23/83/.302/.360/.484/11 Prime Projection: 116/31/111/.320/.392/.555/13

Brandon Lowe TBR, OF/2B, 27.9 – Lowe went bonkos in the 2nd half, slashing .289/.376/.638 with 26 homers and 3 steals in 80 games (.689 OPS in first 69 games). He brought his K% all the way down to 21.1% in 67 games post-break (32.2% in 82 games pre-break). The power was never in question, so if those K% gains are real, it takes Lowe to the next level. 2022 Projection: 89/36/95/.263/.355/.519/6

Randy Arozarena TBR, OF, 27.1 – Arozarena went 20/20 on the dot in 2021, but the underlying numbers are a mixed bag. He had a below average .302 xwOBA (.350 wOBA), 32.4% whiff%, and 7.6 degree launch angle. On the other hand, he had an above average exit velocity (89.9 MPH), BB% (9.3%) and sprint speed (28.8 ft/sec). If you can hit it hard, get on base, and run fast, good things generally happen. I’m more excited for the things he can do well than scared off by the things he doesn’t. 2022 Projection: 88/22/75/.268/.347/.462/17

Austin Meadows TBR, OF, 26.11 – As expected, Meadows bounced back from a Covid induced down 2020 with 27 homers and 106 RBI. He brought his K% down 12.3 percentage points to a career best 20.6%, but he still had a low .234 BA, partly because of bad luck (.249 BABIP) and partly because of a high launch angle (21.7 degrees) mixed with a low FB/LD exit velocity (91.9 MPH). Even in his down 2020, his FB/LD EV was 94.2 MPH, so I’m betting on that bouncing back. There is a Max Kepler-ish vibe that is starting to come from Meadows (and I still think Kepler can have that monster year!), so I’m not as high as I once was on him, but he has the plate approach and power skills to put up a truly big season. 2022 Projection: 82/30/95/.259/.338/.482/6

Pitchers

Shane McClanahan TBR, LHP, 24.11 – I love McClanahan as much as anyone. I’ve been touting him all year and put him in my July 1st, 10 Dynasty Baseball Players to Target article (he put up a 2.97 ERA with 80 strikeouts in 72.2 IP after that). But there is no denying that when batters did made contact, they hit him very hard with a 91.7 MPH EV against (bottom 2% of the league) and 45.7% Hardhit% (bottom 6% of league). Most of the damage comes off his 96.7 MPH fastball, and it brings back to mind helpless little league coaches who had nothing else to say but, “the harder it comes in, the farther it goes out,” as some over grown 12 year old blows like 80 MPH fastballs passed everyone. Those hard hit numbers are the reason for the disparity between his 4.57 xERA and 3.23 xFIP. So which xStat will prevail? I’m betting on it landing somewhere in the middle, leaning more toward xFIP because his ability to miss bats (32% whiff%) and throw the ball over the plate (7.2% BB%) are more important skills to me. 2022 Projection: 12/3.67/1.25/178 in 160 IP

Luis Patino TBR, RHP, 22.5 – Patino held his own as a 21 year old in the majors with a pitching line of 4.31/1.27/74/29 in 77.1 IP on the back of his plus fastball/slider combo. His strikeout and walk rates were about average, and he wasn’t able to develop his changeup very much throwing it only 5% of the time, so on the surface the year wasn’t very exciting, but taking age into account, this is him basically establishing his floor. Upside is still high, even if it might take him a couple years to hit it. 2022 Projection: 8/4.02/1.28/145 in 140 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.62/1.19/190 in 170 IP

Tampa Bay Rays Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects

1) Shane Baz TBR, RHP, 22.10 – Baz’ control took two huge steps forward, going from well below average to near elite with a 1.7% BB% at Double-A, 6.2% at Triple-A, and 6.1% in the majors. He sacrificed nothing to do it, throwing an elite 97 MPH fastball that put up 30.4% whiff%. He combines that with two plus breaking balls in his slider (40.7% whiff%) and curve (50% whiff%), while his changeup lags behind. He’s in a two man race with Grayson Rodriguez for the top pitching prospect in baseball. 2022 Projection: 9/3.78/1.20/148 in 130 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.35/1.07/220 in 187 IP

2) Vidal Brujan TBR, 2B/OF, 24.2 – Brujan couldn’t maintain his early season power surge of 7 homers in his first 16 games (12 homers in 103 games at Triple-A), but his power definitely took a step forward this year. He combines that uptick in power with an elite plate approach (15.4%/11.1% K%/BB%) and plus speed (44 for 52 on the bases). He played all over the field (2B, SS, 3B, OF), and Tampa loves to move guys around, so Brujan is setting up to be the ultimate multi-position eligibility player who will see the field almost everyday at peak. 2022 Projection: 48/7/39/.262/.326/.398/16 Prime Projection: 92/14/66/.283/.355/.423/30

3) Josh Lowe TBR, OF, 24.2 – Lowe blew up at Triple-A, slashing .291/.381/.535 with 22 homers, 26 steals (in 26 attempts), and a 26.2%/13% K%/BB% in 111 games. I’ve been high on him since his 2019 breakout because he is a premium athlete at 6’4”, 205 pounds with a plus power/speed combo and high walk rates. Even though his K% remained high, his hit tool took a step forward this year, which is the one thing that could hold him back. 2022 Projection: 23/7/21/.237/.310/.428/6 Prime Projection: 84/24/76/.256/.338/.467/16

4) Curtis Mead TBR, 3B, 21.5 – Mead has baseball bloodlines with his dad playing professional baseball in Australia. His swing reminds me of my stickball swing, staying upright and loose in the box before ripping liners all over the parking lot, er, baseball field. He hits the ball very hard and makes great contact (15.5% K%), and even though his swing is geared for line drives he still hit 15 homers in 104 games at mostly Single-A (163 wRC+ in 47 games) and High-A (117 wRC+ in 53 games). He is now destroying the AFL, slashing .324/.368/.577 with 3 homers in 18 games. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 79/22/85/.276/.332/.457/7

5) Greg Jones TBR, SS, 24.1 – Jones is all about that pure, uncut upside with double plus speed and plus raw power. He knocked 14 homers and was 34 for 36 on the bases in 72 games split between High-A (144 wRC+ in 72 games) and Double-A (60 wRC+ in 16 games). He was a perfect for 7 for 7 on the bases at Double-A, so the stolen base prowess is definitely real. His strikeout rates are in the danger zone (29.2% at High-A and 35% at Double-A), and he’s on the older side, so the risk is very high, but the upside is worth chasing. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 75/16/61/.242/.318/.428/24

6) Taj Bradley TBR, RHP, 21.0 – Bradley relies heavily on his plus mid 90’s fastball which he has above average control of and gets plenty of whiffs with. He combines that with a breaking ball that flashes plus, but is still inconsistent, and a lesser used developing changeup. He rolled right through the lower minors with a pitching line of 1.83/0.93/123/31 in 103.1 IP split between Single-A and High-A. Good control of a plus fastball makes him relatively safe, and his ceiling will be determined by how much he can improve his secondaries. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/3.98/1.25/163 in 160 IP

7) Carson Williams TBR, SS, 18.9 – Selected 28th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Williams was one of the youngest players in his class and still stepped right into pro ball and performed well with a 130 wRC+ in 11 games. He has a good feel to hit with quick bat speed, and at 6’2”, 180 pounds more power is definitely coming as he matures. He also has some speed. He’s shaping up to be an above average all category contributor. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 79/22/80/.268/.333/.447/9

8) Heriberto Hernandez TBR, OF, 22.4 – Hernandez is your classic 3 true outcome slugger with a 28.1%/15.3% K%/BB% and 44.2% FB% in 73 games at Single-A. He’s always been old for his level and he isn’t good on defense, so playing time could always be a struggle, especially in Tampa’s stacked organization. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/25/77/.251/.335/.467/4

9) Carlos Colmenarez TBR, SS, 18.3 – A hamate injury limited Colmenarez to 26 games, and he didn’t do much in those games with 0 homers, a 26.3%/7.0% K%/BB% and a 79 wRC+ in the DSL, but it’s too early to go off him. He did manage to lift the ball with a 45.7% FB%, so when the raw power inevitably comes, he won’t have any trouble getting to it in games. He still has that same above average across the board potential which made him a very high priced international signing. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 79/20/76/.270/.330/.440/10

10) Ian Seymour TBR, LHP, 23.4 – An elbow injury delayed the start of Seymour’s season until July and limited him to only 55.1 IP, but he quickly proved too advanced for minor league hitters in his pro debut with a pitching line of 1.95/0.81/87/19 split across 3 levels (A, A+, AAA). He doesn’t have huge stuff but he has above average control of a low 90’s fastball and two potentially plus secondaries in his slider and change. He also mixes in a cutter and curve. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.08/1.29/154 in 155 IP

Just Missed

11) Xavier Edwards TBR, 2B, 22.8

12) Cole Wilcox TBR, RHP, 22.9

13) Seth Johnson TBR, RHP, 23.6

Strategy

Tampa Bay can be a nightmare for fantasy owners. They pull their pitchers early and sometimes they don’t even start their starters, they use them as followers. They also use their entire bench and impressive depth to give plenty of days off to all of their position players. While frustrating, there is a method to their madness. They are trying to put their players in the best position to succeed and stay healthy throughout the season, so you can’t be too mad at them. Regardless, it makes me hesitant to go after their pitchers in quality start leagues, and you can’t count on them to rack up innings for you.

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)