Ryan Pepiot – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on December 18, 2023January 3, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Los Angeles Dodgers 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I like to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team, and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Los Angeles Dodgers 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100+ COMING SOON)
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Arizona Diamondbacks–Baltimore Orioles (free)–Boston Red Sox (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Oakland Athletics–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

The Tampa Bay Rays must subscribe to my Patreon, because I named Ryan Pepiot a Top 10 Early Off-Season Dynasty Baseball Target back on September 26th, and the Rays went out and got him for Tyler Glasnow. The Rays are an organization that almost has to trade their studs when they are in the last year of team control, especially an injury prone pitcher, but targeting Pepiot tells you everything you need to know about him. Like me, they think he can be a legitimate impact starter. This trade likely raises his profile too high to still get great value on him, but I also like targeting him at his fair value.

Pitchers

Emmet Sheehan LAD, RHP, 24.5 – Sheehan didn’t have a standout MLB debut with a 4.92 ERA and a 25.8%/10.5% K%/BB% in 60.1 IP, but some of the underlying data is extremely encouraging. Most notably, his 3 secondary pitches were absolutely devastating. The slider put up a .179 xwOBA with a 43.8% whiff%, the changeup put up a .200 xwOBA with a 47.6% whiff%, and the very lightly used sweeper put up a .161 xwOBA with a 41.2% whiff%. His heavily used 95.4 MPH fastball was solid as well with a respectable 20.2% whiff%. His 3.50 xERA looks much better than the surface stats, and he also closed the year out in dominant fashion with a 1.98 ERA and 24/4 K/BB in 13.2 IP over 3 outings. His control is below average, but it’s never really been in the major danger zone, so I wouldn’t downgrade him too much because of that. And how could you not trust the Dodgers to unlock his full potential in the long run. He showed no joke ace upside in his rookie year, and considering he currently has a NFBC ADP of 249, that tells me he isn’t getting nearly the respect he deserves this off-season. 2024 Projection: 9/3.72/1.23/158 in 145 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.52/1.18/210 in 175 IP

Bobby Miller LAD, RHP, 25.0 – Miller’s humongous stuff unsurprisingly transferred to the big leagues with a very strong rookie year. He put up a 3.76 ERA with a 23.6%/6.3% K%/BB% in 124.1 IP. He threw a 5 pitch mix and all of the pitches were good. The 99.1 MPH 4-seamer and 98.7 MPH sinker were both plus, and all 3 of his off-speed pitches missed bats (curve-36% whiff%/change-39.9%/slider-29.2% whiff%). He established a very high floor for himself. The 23.6% K% was modest, but the 6.3% BB% is very encouraging, and seeing the whiff rates on his secondaries tells me there could easily be more swing and miss in the tank. As opposed to Sheehan, Miller’s getting a ton of respect this off-season with a NFBC ADP of 81, so you’re probably one year too late if you are looking to buy him. He has top of the rotation upside and everyone knows it now. 2024 Projection: 12/3.52/1.18/165 in 160 IP

Hitters

James Outman LAD, OF, 26.10 – Outman has a plus power/speed combo with extreme hit tool risk, but I’m concerned the power/speed combo isn’t quite big enough to stick your neck out for considering the risk. He hit 23 homers with a 87.9/91.8 MPH AVG/FB EV, and he stole 16 bags in 567 PA. Good, but not great, and the swing and miss is in the danger zone with a 31.9% K% and 36.6% whiff%. He also struggles vs. lefties with a .665 OPS, giving him platoon risk. He’s a well above average defensive centerfielder, and he still got on base vs. lefties (.357 OBP), so the skills are there to play nearly everyday even if the BA dips. It was also only his rookie year and he managed a .248 BA (.228 xBA), so I’m certainly not down on him, but it’s the type of profile I would want to fall into my lap, rather than one I’m truly going after. 2024 Projection: 81/25/72/.239/.338/.440/15

Miguel Vargas LAD, 2B, 24.4 – It feels like eons ago since Miguel Vargas was considered a near elite prospect, but that was just last off-season. What scared everyone off is that he pulled a Gavin Lux on us with extremely underwhelming homer/steal totals (7 homers and 3 steals in 304 MLB PA), and he also only hit .195 despite a strong 20.1%/12.5% K%/BB%. He was then sent back down to the minors on July 8th and never saw the MLB field again. Vargas had his chance and failed to lock in a full time MLB role, and now he’s going to have to fight for his playing time. Betts is locked in at 2B, Muncy is at 3B, Freeman is at 1B, and Ohtani is at DH. He’s a bench bat until an injury happens or Muncy leaves in free agency after the 2024 season. Despite the poor rookie season, he still showed the skills to breakout in the future with his aforementioned strong plate approach, 16.6 degree launch, decent 6% Barrel%, and above average 27.9 ft/sec sprint. He crushed Triple-A again too. He’s just going to have to wait his turn to get another full time shot. 2024 Projection: 39/10/36/.251/.329/.418/7 Prime Projection: 84/24/79/.267/.346/.451/13

Bullpen

Evan Phillips LAD, Closer, 29.7 – Josh Hader is the only one who could rain on Phillips’ parade. The Dodgers seem like a very possible landing spot for Hader, and he would almost certainly slot directly into the full time closer role. That makes Phillips a bit risky to go after too hard until Hader officially signs somewhere, but if Phillips does keep the job, he is in at least the 2nd tier of closers. He took over LA’s undisputed closer role by late June, and he earned it with a 2.05 ERA and 28.2%/5.6% K%/BB% in 61.1 IP. He has an elite sweeper (.195 xwOBA with a 42.1% whiff%), a double plus 96.4 MPH fastball (.279 xwOBA with a 30.8% whiff%), a 95.5 MPH sinker that keeps the ball on the ground (negative 1 degree launch), and a solid 93.1 MPH cutter. It’s his 2nd year in a row of dominance, and his control is now in the near elite range. Just keep Hader away from him. 2024 Projection: 4/2.89/0.98/72/30 saves in 63 IP

Los Angeles Dodgers Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Josue De Paula LAD, OF, 18.10 – De Paula’s stateside debut wasn’t perfect, and it wasn’t the true explosion we were all hoping for, but it was still impressive when taking everything into account. The Dodgers showed how much they loved him by skipping him straight over stateside rookie ball, and he didn’t only hold his own against much older competition, his plate approach and hit tool were actually extremely mature with a 17.9%/13.5% K%/BB%, .284 BA, and 118 wRC+ in 74 games at Single-A. At a broad, athletic, and projectable 6’3”, 185 pounds with a sweet lefty swing, establishing this level of plate skills is relatively rare and exciting. Usually with these toolsy prospects we have to worry about the hit tool tanking them, but not with Josue. He hit only 2 homers, which is extremely low, so I’m not just going to hand wave it away, but he didn’t hit the ball particularly weakly, and he obviously made zero attempts to sell out for power. The raw power will certainly continue to tick up, which will make for a dangerous combination with his plate skills once it does. He’s not a burner, but he’s a good base runner with 14 steals in 17 attempts. Josue is taking the Juan Soto path, and the off-season after Soto’s 18 year old season were when the biggest trade mistakes were made with Soto (not saying he will be as good as Soto because Soto was even better in a shortened 18 year old season at Single-A). Stay patient on the explosion. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 88/24/81/.278/.352/.475/12

2) Joendry Vargas LAD, SS, 18.5 – Vargas is basically Josue De Paula 2.0. It’s almost like the Dodgers are especially good at this developing baseball players thing. He’s a projectable and athletic 6’4”, 175 pounds, earning him one of the top international signing bonuses last off-season, and he had a great season in the DSL, slashing .328/.423/.529 with 7 homers, 19 steals, and a 14.9%/14.4% K%/BB% in 48 games. All of the ingredients are there for him to explode to elite prospect status in the next few years with at least plus power potential, plus athleticism, and plus plate skills. Get in on him now before the mainstream prospect lists start blowing him up next season. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 81/26/86/.268/.341/.481/13

3) Gavin Stone LAD, RHP, 25.6 – Stone had a truly horrific MLB debut with a 9.00 ERA and 14.5%/8.6% K% in 31 IP, but I’m trying not to panic. We only have to look at Brandon Pfaadt to be reminded to keep our heads when a top pitching prospect gets demolished in their debut. Pfaadt is just one of many examples (Jose Berrios immediately comes to mind as well). If you’re looking for silver linings, his stuff did a solid job of missing bats with his changeup putting up a 41.4% whiff%, his slider putting up a 40% whiff%, and his 4-seamer putting up a 23.5% whiff%. His stuff didn’t even get hit insanely hard either with a merely below average 8.7% barrel%. It certainly wasn’t a good year with his fastball velocity taking a step back to 94 MPH, and he wasn’t great at Triple-A either with a 4.74 ERA in 100.2 IP, but I think the prudent thing to do is to look at this year as a developmental bump in the road, rather than a true disaster. His value takes a hit, but you certainly shouldn’t be close to throwing in the towel on him. 2024 Projection: 5/4.25/1.32/96 in 100 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.88/1.26/173 in 165 IP

4) Dalton Rushing LAD, C/1B, 23.1 – If Robo Umps come to the majors in the future, it will take framing away as a catcher skill, but blocking balls in the dirt and throwing out runners on the bases will still be super important, so I wouldn’t assume catcher defense will just be thrown to the curb. On that note, Rushing isn’t a particularly good defensive catcher, so it puts a lot of pressure on his bat to max out. He was far too advanced for High-A with a 146 wRC+ on the back of a .404 OBP in 89 games, as an advanced 22 year old college bat should be, but the 15 homers, .228 BA, and 24.4% K% aren’t quite as impressive. His numbers likely would have been better if he didn’t suffer a concussion from a getting hit by a backswing in June, but not sure that is necessarily a point in his favor for fantasy. Catchers take a beating, which is why you should generally downgrade them. The bat is good enough to profile in a 1B/DH/backup catcher role, but it just makes playing time tougher to come by and the leash much shorter. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/25/81/.253/.339/.458/2

5) Michael Busch LAD, 2B/3B, 26.4 – Ohtani locking down the DH spot is not great for Busch. He’s a poor defensive player who hits righties much better than lefties, so that DH spot was going to be his saving grace. Not anymore. He had a terrible MLB debut with a 49 wRC+ in 81 PA, and while there is some Quad-A slugger risk, he was utterly dominant at Triple-A (150 wRC+, 27 homers, 18.8%/13.9% K%/BB% in 98 games), so I wouldn’t panic too much over the debut. A trade would be the best thing for him, but LA could use a big bench bat, so I don’t think they are in any rush to move him. He’s stuck in opportunity limbo right now, and it might take until his late 20’s to lock in a near full time role. 2024 Projection: 21/7/25/.238/.321/.431/1 Prime Projection: 67/20/75/.251/.339/.467/3

6) Andy Pages LAD, OF, 23.4 – Out of sight, out of mind rules the prospect world, but Pages has the skills and opportunity to fight that instinct. He tore his labrum on a swing in mid May and missed the rest of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery. He was in the midst of having another excellent season (all he’s done in his career is have excellent seasons) with a 144 wRC+ in 33 games at Double-A. He has plus power with extremely low groundball rates (23.8%), and he combines that with a plus plate approach (22.5%/17.6% K%/BB%). He has some hit tool risk, especially with the extreme launch, but his strikeout rates have generally stayed out of the danger zone over his career. The Dodgers also don’t have much close to the majors OF depth with Outman, Jason Heyward, Chris Taylor, and Manuel Margot currently penciled into their OF slots. Pages can definitively kick the door down in 2024 assuming he returns to full health. 2024 Projection: 18/6/22/.223/.307/.431/2 Prime Projection: 82/28/84/.241/.335/.466/9

7) Eduardo Quintero LAD, OF, 18.7 – Quintero was one of the top DSL breakouts, and is arguably THE top DSL breakout with a 180 wRC+ that led all qualified age appropriate 17 year olds. He slashed .359/.472/.618 with 5 homers, 22 steals, and a 16%/15.1% K%/BB% in 49 games. He doesn’t have De Paula or Vargas’ obvious projectable size, but he’s not small at 6’0”, 175 pounds, and he’s an electric athlete with plus speed and at least above average power potential. DSL stats have to be taken with some level of restraint, so when I truly stick my neck out for a DSL breakout, they optimally have that prototypical size and pedigree, but if you aren’t as concerned with that, Quintero has a real case to be valued equally to, or even higher than Vargas. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 83/20/77/.265/.336/.448/22

8) Kyle Hurt LAD, RHP, 25.10 – All signs point towards LA deploying Hurt as a multi inning bullpen weapon in the near future. He reached 5 IP in only 4 of 26 upper minors outings, and he was already 25 years old for most of the 2023 season. His 92 IP this year was a career high. The profile also plays in shorter outings with below average control (11.3% BB%) of two plus to double plus pitches in his 95.5 MPH 4-seamer and 87.1 MPH changeup. It led to an insane 39.2% K%. He throws a decent slider and curve, so it’s not impossible for him to end up a starter, but neither misses a ton of bats. In shallower leagues, his likely middle innings role could make it hard to roster him, but in medium to deeper leagues, he’s good enough to make a real impact out of the bullpen, and he can certainly end up in the rotation if injuries open up a spot for him. 2024 Projection: 5/3.78/1.30/99 in 85 IP Prime Projection: 8/3.55/1.26/150 in 130 IP

9) Diego Cartaya LAD, C, 22.7 – Cartaya’s hit tool issues came to the forefront at Double-A with a .189 BA and 29%/9.2% K%/BB% in 93 games. A lot of that was back luck with a .216 BABIP, but it certainly wasn’t all bad luck. He was only 21 years old in the upper minors, so I would expect improvement in the future, but the hit tool is definitely a risk. The power isn’t a risk as the 6’3”, 220 slugger smacked 19 homers with a 31.6% GB%. Cartaya didn’t have the elite fantasy catcher explosion that we were hoping for in 2023, but his big power, low BA profile remains intact. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 64/26/72/.237/.321/.462/1

10) Thayron Liranzo LAD, C, 20.9 – Liranzo was one of the top breakout catcher prospects in 2023 on the back of at least double plus power. He slashed .272/.400/.562 with 24 homers and a 26.8%/16.7% K%/BB% in 94 games at Single-A. He’s a big boy at a thick 6’3” and he hits the ball tremendously hard from both sides of the plate (he’s better as a lefty). He’s not a great defensive catcher, the hit tool is still a risk, and LA is stacked at catcher up and down their organization, but Liranzo still seems underrated and underhyped to me considering the destruction he just laid in 2023. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 68/28/81/.242/.328/.464/3

11) Nick Frasso LAD, RHP, 25.6 – When everything is clicking, Frasso looks like a near ace at an athletic 6’5” with a deceptive righty delivery, fire stuff, and above average control. But everything isn’t always clicking for him as he ran extremely hot and cold this year, his stuff can be up and down, he’s been very injury prone in his career, and 93 IP was a career high by far (60 IP was previous career high in 2018). He throws a mid 90’s fastball with a plus slider and a changeup that flashes plus. It was good for a 3.77 ERA and 26.8%/7.8% K%/BB% in 93 IP at mostly Double-A. His ultimate role is still very much in the air, and in an organization that grows pitching prospects on trees and can sign/acquire high priced pitchers whenever they want, a bullpen role seems likely in the first couple years of his career. 2024 Projection: 3/4.39/1.34/58 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 9/3.91/1.28/150 in 140 IP

12) River Ryan LAD, RHP, 25.8 – Ryan’s numbers don’t exactly jump off the screen with a 3.90 ERA and 24.6%/10.3% K%/BB% in 104.1 IP at mostly Double-A, but his stuff most certainly does with a mid to upper 90’s fastball and plus slider leading the way. He also throws a curve and changeup that both have plus potential. He has a repeatable and athletic righty delivery at 6’2”, 195 pounds, and he doesn’t have a ton of experience starting, so there might be more upside in here than your typical 25 year old. A mid-rotation starter is probably his most reasonable upside projection, but he has a bit more upside than your typical “mid-rotation upside” starter. 2024 Projection: 2/4.48/1.35/54 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.95/1.28/150 in 150 IP

13) Hyun-Seok Jang LAD, RHP, 20.0 – When the Dodgers aggressively go after somebody (they made a trade for international moola right before signing Jang), you take notice, and you also jump aboard knowing how good they are at development. The 6’4”, 200 pound Jang was expected to be the #1 overall pick in the Korea League Draft before signing with LA, and after watching every video I could find of him, it’s very easy to see why. His stuff is genuinely explosive with a plus to double plus 4 pitch mix. He throws a mid 90’s fastball that rockets out of his hand, a knee buckling curve that looks like it could be double plus, a plus slider, and a potentially plus change. He is also way mature beyond his years on the mound with an athletic delivery and good control. I think he has legit ace upside and isn’t going to be ranked even close to where he deserves to be. Go after Jang hard in first year player drafts, and I’m tempted to go even higher on him, but you likely won’t have to reach too far to grab him in your drafts based on his current hype. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 13/3.56/1.18/185 in 170 IP

14) Kendall George LAD, OF, 19.5 – Selected 36th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, George is a pure speed play. He has 80 grade speed with legitimately elite run times. He also makes a ton of contact and is a plus defensive centerfielder. That profile will play on the major league level, and it certainly played in the lower minors, slashing .370/.458/.420 with 0 homers, 17 steals, and a 20/17 K/BB in 28 games split between rookie and Single-A. He has below average power with extremely high groundball rates, and while it does project to tick up from here, it’s not expected to be a major part of his game. He’s the high school version of Enrique Bradfield. . ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 84/10/52/.284/.348/.390/41

15) Trey Sweeney LAD, SS, 23.11 – The ingredients seem to be in here for a legit breakout, which is obviously part of the reason LA traded for him. Sweeney has a plus plate approach (19.1%/13.8% K%/BB%), good raw power at 6’2”, 212 pounds, low groundball rates (32.9% GB%), and while he’s not a burner, he clearly has some base stealing skills (20 steals). He’s also a decent defensive SS. It was good for a 118 wRC+ in 100 games at Double-A. He hasn’t been able to fully tap into his raw power yet with only 13 homers and a very low hard hit rate. The lack of squaring up the baseball has also led to a mediocre BA (.252 BA). He also struggled mightily vs lefties with a .560 OPS. The Dodgers organizational SS depth is surprisingly weak right now, so Sweeney immediately becomes their 2nd best long term SS option behind Gavin Lux. He might never be anything but a below average MLB hitter, but the move to LA gives him both a developmental and opportunity bump. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 68/18/62/.248/.324/.429/11

16) Jake Gelof LAD, 3B, 22.1 – Selected 60th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Gelof has the baseball bloodlines with his older brother, Zack, breaking out in the majors this year. Jake is a thick 6’1”, 200 pounds with a powerful righty swing that is made to hit dingers. He popped 21 homers in 2022 and then followed that up with a 23 homer season in 2023. That continued in pro ball with him cracking 6 homers in 30 games at mostly Single-A. It might not be truly elite power, but it’s easy plus power. He has below average speed, and there is hit tool risk too which already reared it’s ugly head with a .225 BA and 29.9 K% at Single-A, but we’ve seen the Gelof’s thrive with high K rates (hello, Zack) You are buying the power here, and after getting drafted by the Dodgers, you are also buying the great developmental organization. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 74/27/83/.243/.326/.468/6

Just Missed

16) Payton Martin LAD, RHP, 19.10

17) Justin Wrobleski LAD, LHP, 23.8

18) Jose Ramos LAD, OF, 23.3

19) Jeral Perez LAD, 2B/3B/SS, 19.5 – Perez’ destruction of rookie ball (11 homers with a 120 wRC+ in 53 games) earned him a promotion to Single-A where he more than held his own with a 118 wRC+ and 22.2%/18.5% K%/BB% in 7 games. He doesn’t necessarily jump off the screen with a thick and stocky build, and he’s not a huge tools guy, but he’s done nothing but produce at every level, including the DSL in 2022 (130 wRC+). He has a mature plate approach, he lifts the ball, and he’s in a great organization, so he should be able to get the most of his talent. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 66/19/74/.245/.323/.430/8

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: TOP 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100+ COMING SOON)
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on August 14, 2023August 15, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (8/14/23)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (8/14/23):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON & OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-AUGUST TOP 477 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-MID-SEASON TOP 357 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 17 DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (8/3/23)
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JULY MAILBAG! (7/28/23)
-TOP 38 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (8/15/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

Zack Gelof OAK, 2B/3B, 23.10 – Here’s what I wrote about Gelof about two weeks ago in my Top 17 Dynasty Baseball Targets article, “If you want safety, sign up for a defensive driving course. This here is the autobahn of dynasty baseball schools, and I don’t want speed limits. I want to take the restrictor plate off and let it fly. That brings us to the 6’3”, 205 pound Zack Gelof, whose upside was considerably underrated in the minors. The guy came up to the majors and has been a power/speed glutton with a 91.8 MPH EV, 20.3 degree launch, and 29.5 ft/sec sprint speed. It’s led to 4 homers and 5 steals in just 16 games. He flashed those same skills in the minors with 12 homers and 20 steals in 69 games at Triple-A. Sure it might feel like your car is coming apart at the seams with the steering wheel shaking and hearing a weird squeaking sound that you can’t quite place because your whiff% meter is well into the danger zone at 42.1%, but fuck it, you’re sick of playing it safe and falling just short of a championship. In fantasy baseball, if you crash and burn, you don’t actually die, you just feel shitty for a few weeks/months. If you can’t take risks in fantasy, where can you take risks? And for Gelof’s current very reasonable price, he’s worth the risk for that big time upside he’s showing off.” … he went 4 for 5 with 2 bombs last night and since that write-up is slashing .382/.432/.853 with 4 homers, 1 steal, and a 7/3 K/BB in 9 games. Buy windows can close fast during the season, and this buy window might have just slammed shut on your fingers if you didn’t act fast.

Wilyer Abreu BOS, OF, 24.1 – Abreu was also named in that target article, and he also went nuclear yesterday with a 3 dinger day. He has a sweet, sweet lefty swing that I just can’t quit, and it’s resulted in 20 bombs with a 21.4%/15.4% K%/BB% and 121 wRC+ in 80 games at Triple-A. He barely gets a whisper of hype and all he does is rake.

Noah Schultz CHW, LHP, 20.0 – I promise you I don’t want to turn this entire Rundown into one big pat myself on the back fest, but I can’t help that so many of my Targets went off yesterday. Schultz was my top pitcher target for first year player drafts, and now his hype is absolutely blowing up. He kept his immaculate season going yesterday (3.1 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 5/2 K/BB) and now has a 1.33 ERA with a 36.5%/5.8% K%/BB% in 27 IP at Single-A.

Bryan Ramos CHW, 3B, 21.3 – Okay, this is a cry for help now … just … can’t … stop … being … right 😉 … Ramos is the Rodney Dangerfield of prospects, the guy just don’t get no respect. He dug out a pitch that was down and in and somehow managed to go the other way with it with authority for his 11th homer in 49 games at Double-A. I’ve been banging his drum for two years and he’s now destroying Double-A, slashing .274/.392/.508 with 11 homers, 4 steals, and a 22.7%/12.4% K%/BB%. There actually might still be a buy window here, because I’ll tell ya, he got no respect the day he was born. He ranked 77th on my Mid-Season Top 357 Dynasty Prospects Rankings.

Coby Mayo BAL, 3B, 21.8 – I’m doing everything in my power to not mention that I predicted Coby Mayo would be a Top 10 Prospect in my Predicting the Top 50 2024 Dynasty Baseball Prospects back in February. I’m not sure he’s quite at Top 10 level yet, but he’s certainly blown up this year, and he’s starting to conquer Triple-A now too with a 457 foot bomb for his 3rd homer in 26 games. He only has a 69 wRC+ at the level (177 wRC+ at Double-A), but his strikeout rate has come down to a reasonable 25.2% and a lot of it is poor BABIP luck (.242 BABIP).

Moises Ballesteros CHC, C, 19.8 – Okay Mike, it’s not even funny anymore, don’t mention that you named Ballesteros your top catcher target this off-season in your Positional Targets Series … don’t do it … Ballesteros was my top catcher target this off-season in my Positional Targets Series, and he’s gone off this year. He got the call to High-A after conquering Single-A, and he’s now officially destroying the level after cracking his 3rd homer. He has a 131 wRC+ in 37 games after putting up a 143 wRC+ in 56 games at Single-A.

Anthony Solometo PIT, LHP, 20.7 – Let’s use Solometo as a palate cleanser. Finally one of my targets who didn’t play well yesterday. He went 1 IP with 4 hits, 3 ER and a 1/1 K/BB at Double-A. He hasn’t been bad at Double-A, but he hasn’t been dominant either with a 4.15 ERA and 25.2%/5.4% K%/BB% in 34.2 IP. Keep in mind he’s still only 20 years old, and it’s also nice to see the walk rate come all the way down to a near elite 5.4% BB%.

Homer Bush Jr. SDP, OF, 21.10 – Don’t worry, Homer Bush Jr. has never been a target of mine … yet. He didn’t crack my Top 50 2024 FYPD Rankings, but he’s proving he should have with an excellent pro debut. After across the board destruction in rookie ball, he got called up to Single-A and is still raking, slashing .294/.478/.529 with 1 homer, 2 steals, and a 8.7%/13% K%/BB% in 5 games. His 12 pro steals leads all 2023 draftees. As the 128th pick in the draft, he’s quickly becoming one of my favorite sleeper bats.

Enrique Bradfield Jr. BAL, OF, 21.8 – Speaking of guys racking up steals, Bradfield racked up 4 steals yesterday and is a perfect 9 for 9 in only 7 pro games (3 games in rookie and 4 in Single-A). As the 17th pick in the draft, you won’t get the discount you can get on Bush, but his category winning stolen base prowess is worth the price.

Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 21.4 – You heard it here first, Crews is my #1 sleeper target in first year player drafts 😉 … He’s unsurprisingly obliterating the lower minors after going 5 for 5 with 2 homers yesterday at High-A. He has a 193 wRC+ in 8 games at the level. It continues to lock in his status as a truly elite prospect, and he already ranked 51st overall on the Updated Top 477 Dynasty Baseball Rankings that dropped last week on my Patreon.

Ryan Pepiot LAD, RHP, 25.11 – 6.2 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 11/0 K/BB at Triple-A. The fastball sat 94.3 MPH and the changeup dominated with a 50% whiff%. Here’s a highlight reel of his dominance. I feel like we’ve seen enough plus changeup Dodgers pitchers struggle in the majors (Gavin Stone, Emmet Sheehan) to scare us off, but at the same time, those struggles might open the door for Pepiot to get the next shot when/if a rotation spot opens.

Matt Shaw CHC, SS, 21.8/Tommy Troy ARI, 3B/2B, 21.6 – There seems to be a split between people who prefer Shaw and people who prefer Troy, and while I’m most certainly on Team Shaw, I like Troy too. They both homered yesterday, and now Shaw is utterly decimating High-A with 2 homers, 1 steal, a 15.4% K% and 205 wRC+ in 9 games. Troy isn’t playing as well with a 80 wRC+ in 10 games, but a lot of that is bad BABIP luck (.185 BABIP) because the 3 homers, 4 steals, and a 26.1% K% ain’t bad at all. Shaw checked in at 43rd overall on my Mid-Season Top 357 Prospects Rankings while Troy checked in at #126.

Termarr Johnson PIT, 2B/SS, 19.1 – It didn’t take long for Johnson to find his footing at High-A. After struggling in his first few games at the level, he’s homered in back to back games. His hit tool might not have been quite as good as advertised, but this is still an explosive player with a very mature plate approach. I would say he’s living up to about 95% of his draft hype.

Chase Silseth LAA, RHP, 23.1 – 5 IP, 4 hits, 0 ER, 5/2 K/BB vs. HOU. He probably got a bit lucky in this one with only a 16% whiff% and with his secondaries getting hit relatively hard, but you know what they say, it’s better to be lucky than good. And it’s also a good sign that he was still able to come through without his best stuff. He ranked 332nd on the Updated Top 477 Dynasty Rankings.

Jace Jung DET, 2B, 22.9 – Jung went lefty on lefty off Solometo on a pitch that was so bad I’m not even sure what it was. I’m assuming it was a hanging slider. They all count the same though, and Jung is more than handling his business since getting the call to Double-A with 4 homers and a 118 wRC+ in 19 games. The Jung’s are taking the baseball world by storm this year, and it won’t be long before baby bro Jace joins his big bro Josh in the majors.

James Wood WAS, OF, 20.10 – Wood unloaded for his 13th homer in 58 games at Double-A, and he did it with an impressively short and quick swing. That type of swing gives hope his hit tool will be good enough to let the huge power/speed combo shine, but there is undeniable hit tool risk with a 32.7% K% at the level. I’m buying the talent, just like I am with the similarly tall and thin Elly (who cracked his 10th MLB homer yesterday).

Carson Williams TBR, SS, 20.1 – Okay, 11 blurbs is long enough to go without mentioning my targets going off, right? My man Williams went 5 for 5 with 2 doubles at High-A, and most importantly, he didn’t strike out once. He’s been excellent all season, but he’s been especially great over his last 33 games with 9 homers and a .973 OPS. The 30.9% K% is too high, but he has the type of talent to overlook that one small snafu. He also has the defensive prowess to keep him on the field while he works through the hit tool issues.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on November 28, 2022December 9, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Los Angeles Dodgers 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Los Angeles Dodgers 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 43 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100 COMING LATER IN THE OFF-SEASON)
-A TOP 150 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: TOP 68 C//TOP 95 1B
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—New York Yankees (free)—Oakland Athletics—San Diego Padres—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—Texas Rangers—Washington Nationals

Starting Pitchers

Dustin May LAD, RHP, 25.7 – May returned from Tommy John surgery in late August, and while he wasn’t able to seamlessly pick up from his 2021 breakout, he showed the ingredients to get back there in 2023. He continued to throw the 97.2 MPH sinker much less in favor of his 98.1 MPH 4 seamer and secondaries (curve, cutter, change), which drove his 2021 breakout. The improved whiff% remained with a strong 29.7% whiff%, and he kept the ball on the ground as always with a 4.7 degree launch. Control is often the last thing to come back after returning from Tommy John, and that proved true for May as he had a career worst by a mile 11% BB%, which led to the poor 4.50 ERA in 30 IP. He’s had plus to elite control his entire career though, so I would be shocked if that didn’t bounce back in 2023. You have one last off-season to buy into May, because he’s headed for a monster 2023. He ranked 62nd overall on A Top 104 Sneak Peek of the 2023 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings over on Patreon. 2023 Projection: 12/3.32/1.08/160 in 150 IP

Tony Gonsolin LAD, RHP, 28.11 – Gonsolin was one of my biggest, if not my biggest hit of 2022. I hyped him to death all off-season with him going for a sweetheart price, and he exploded with near ace numbers, putting up a pitching line of 2.14/0.86/119/35 in 130.1 IP. A forearm injury knocked him out for all of September, but he was able to return before the end of the season. He throws a 93.1 MPH fastball with 3 plus secondaries in his splitter, slider, and curve. It led to an above average 23.9%/7.0% K%/BB%. His 3.12 xERA is likely more representative of his true talent level, but he now has a career 2.51 ERA over 4 seasons (272.2 IP). He’ll regress in 2023, but there’s no reason he won’t continue to be a damn good pitcher in one of the best organizations in the game. 2023 Projection: 13/3.42/1.12/148 in 155 IP

Hitters

Gavin Lux LAD, 2B, 25.4 – Lux seems to be afflicted with the curse of Starlin Castro. A once elite prospect who doesn’t bust, but becomes just another guy. He put up a measly 6 homers with 7 steals in 471 PA. His .276 BA was one of the few things he did well, but you can’t even truly count on that as his xBA was .247. The frustrating part it is that the skills that made him an elite prospect are still there. He has an above average plate approach (20.2%/10% K%/BB%) with plus speed (28.9 ft/sec sprint) and some pop (93.3 MPH FB/LD EV). He’s been an average MLB hitter in his age 21-24 year old seasons with a .316 xwOBA (MLB average is .315). The problem is that it hasn’t translated to fantasy success, and unless he starts running a whole lot more out of nowhere (which is possible), going out of your way to acquire Lux would likely be factoring in too much of his former prospect hype. We have to value him as he is, not as we hoped he would be, which is a better real life hitter than fantasy who does still have some upside. 2023 Projection: 76/14/63/.268/.337/.413/14

Max Muncy LAD, 3B/2B, 32.7 – It’s pretty clear Muncy deserves a pass for his rough season. He came into the year with a torn UCL that was not fully healed, and it led to a .613 OPS in his first 83 games. It was obvious when he started to fell better though. By August and September he was back to his old tricks, slashing .247/.358/.500 with 12 homers and a 56/31 K/BB in his final 53 games. I have to imagine another full off-season away from the injury will only help further. He’s an easy buy for a win now team. Use the down year and advanced age to nab one of the premier power bats in the game for what is sure to be a very reasonable price. That goes doubly in OBP leagues. 2023 Projection: 89/32/88/.243/.361/.502/2

Cody Bellinger FRA, OF, 27.9 – Bellinger technically did bounce back, well, maybe not bounce back, but he bounced, from a .542 OPS in 2021 to a .654 OPS in 2022, which is obviously not what we were hoping for. He continued to hit the ball in the air a ton (20.3 degree launch) with a weak 92.3 MPH EV FB/LD EV, and it led to a .210 BA (.213 xBA). He put up 95+ MPH FB/LD EV’s in 2017-2019. His Max EV’s tell the same tale, with it going from 112.8 MPH in 2017 to 107.3 MPH in 2022. His loss of power is almost biblical, Samson style. There one day, gone the next. Even his formerly great plate approach has been shattered to pieces with a 27.3%/6.9% K%/BB%. The shoulder injury seems to be a pretty clear demarcation of when it really fell apart. Maybe the league was starting to figure him out a bit too. Either way, everything is trending in the wrong direction, and the Dodgers non tendering him this off-season really drives the point home on how far he’s fallen. 2023 Projection: 76/23/74/.227/.308/.421/15

Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 30.6 – It’s clear that Betts is entering the back nine of his career, but a superstar talent like this has some tricks in their bag to slow that decline. He cranked a career high 35 homers in 142 games, and he did it by jumping on the first pitch 30.4% of the time, which is a career high by far (19.1% in 2021). The signs of decline could be seen with his sprint speed not bouncing back from an injury filled 2021, and he now has very slightly below average speed (49th percentile). His 14 steal attempts were a career low (other than the shortened 2020). His BA didn’t bounce back either, sitting at .269, and his xBA is saying it isn’t a fluke (.254 xBA). The adjustments Betts’ is making gives hope he can maintain elite, or near elite levels for a few more years, but it’s hard to completely ignore the red flags that have popped up here and there. 2023 Projection: 110/30/78/.277/.351/.527/14

Top 10 Los Angeles Dodgers Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Miguel Vargas LAD, 3B, 23.4 – Vargas made his MLB debut in 2022 and while he only put up a .455 OPS in 50 PA, there is nothing I love more than seeing rookies hit the ball hard. He had a well above average 89.7/94.1 MPH AVG/FB EV. He’s also much faster than advertised with a 29.3 ft/sec sprint speed which in the top 6% of the league. He had no trouble lifting the ball with a 25.7 degree launch angle and has no swing and miss issues with an average 24.3% whiff%. His elite plate approach at Triple-A (14.6%/13.7% K%/BB%) shows better days are likely ahead there too. Speaking of Triple-A, he slashed .304/.304/.511 with 17 homers and 16 steals in 113 games. He’s currently the favorite to be LA’s starting 3B in 2023, and the numbers indicate this guy has star potential. 2023 Projection: 72/21/75/.258/.327/.445/11 Prime Projection: 93/27/87/.272/.345/.483/15

2) Bobby Miller LAD, RHP, 24.0 – Miller is 6’5”, 220 pounds with ace level stuff. He throws a fastball that sits in the upper 90’s, a filthy upper 80’s changeup that gets about 10 MPH separation from the fastball, and a plus slider (he mixes in a good curve too). His 4.25 ERA in 112.1 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A was surprisingly underwhelming considering the stuff. Part of it is because his fastball is relatively hittable, and while he doesn’t have major control problems, he’s no Greg Maddux. The delivery isn’t super athletic either. The other part of it is likely bad luck as his 30.5%/8.1% K%/BB% and 3.47 xFIP at Double-A looks much better than the 4.45 ERA he put up at the level. He has ace upside, and with the Dodgers’ pitching development prowess, mid-rotation might be his floor. Don’t be surprised if he wins that 5th rotation spot straight out of camp, and while the Dodgers could easily sign a vet, they have enough holes to fill on offense I think they might leave the spot open for a young gun. 2023 Projection: 8/3.85/1.26/122 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.48/1.18/202 in 180 IP

3) Gavin Stone LAD, RHP, 24.6 – Stone put up a miniscule 1.48 ERA in 121.2 IP spread across 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA), and he thoroughly dominated each level equally with his 1.16 ERA in 23.1 IP at Triple-A being his best mark. It’s all about the elite changeup, which is extremely hard for batters to pick up and dives at the last second. He combines that with mid 90’s heat while mixing in a slider, cutter, and sinker. He’ll be right in the mix for that 5th starter job. 2023 Projection: 6/3.93/1.28/91 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.55/1.19/189 in 170 IP

4) Diego Cartaya LAD, C, 21.7 – Cartaya is neck and neck with Francisco Alvarez for the most power from a prospect catcher, and at 6’3”, 219 pounds, he might surpass him at peak. He jacked 22 homers in 95 games split between Single-A and High-A. Just look at this whip quick swing from the big man. He looks the part of a major leaguer already. He’s an OBP machine with a 14.1% BB%, but the batting average is likely to remain low with some swing and miss issues (26.7% K%). ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 69/32/84/.245/.338/.508/1

5) Michael Busch LAD, 2B/OF, 25.5 – Busch is as easy as it comes to evaluate. He’s a lefty masher with high strikeout and walk rates. He crushed 32 homers with a 167/74 K/BB in 142 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s a poor defensive player, but LA knew that when they took him 31st overall in the 2019 Draft. If he hits, they’ll find a spot for him, and I think he’s gonna hit. 2023 Projection: 34/11/36/.237/.318/.441/2 Prime Projection: 87/28/87/.251/.343/.488/3

6) Andy Pages LAD, OF, 22.4 – Pages’ 102 wRC+ at Double-A doesn’t jump off the page, but he was only 21 year old at the advanced level, and his profile remains the same as a low BA, high OBP slugger. He cracked 26 homers with a 24.9%/10.9% K%/BB% in 132 games. The reason I have Busch ranked over him is that Busch has a launch angle conducive to power and BA, but Pages has an extreme 50.4% flyball percentage which led to a .236 BA. There is very real batting average risk especially if the balls remain dead. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 83/28/87/.241/.330/.479/6

7) Dalton Rushing LAD, C/1B, 22.1 – Selected 40th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Rushing gets the biggest post draft bump after the destruction he left in his wake in pro ball. He slashed .404/.522/.740 with 8 homers and a 16.4%/16.4% K%/BB% in 28 games at Single-A. It’s not like this came out of nowhere either as he jacked 23 homers with a 1.156 OPS in 64 games in the ACC. Tack on the fact he got drafted by one of the best organizations in baseball who have recently developed 2 prospects with a very similar profile (Andy Pages and Michael Busch), and it makes Rushing a no brainer FYPD target. He’s not a lock to stick behind the plate, but the bat will play anywhere, and LA values versatility. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 78/26/81/.253/.337/.461/2

8) Josue De Paula LAD, OF, 17.10 – De Paula might be my favorite DSL breakout. He’s in a great organization, has athletic bloodlines (Stephon Marbury is his cousin), has great size (6’3”, 185), and great production (162 wRC+ with a 13.9%/14.3% K%/BB% in 53 DSL games). He made his first appearance on my in-season Top 300+ Monthly Prospects Rankings in July at 257th overall, and rose all the way to 139th overall on my Top 360 End of Season Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings over on Patreon. DSL prospects are as high risk as they come, but he has a legitimate chance to become one of the next big things. He’s started to get more hype this off-season, but he should still come at a great price in 99% of leagues. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 77/25/84/.271/.336/.473/12

9) Ryan Pepiot LAD, RHP, 25.7 – If Pepiot cracks the Dodgers rotation, this will look too low, because anybody in the Dodgers rotation is good enough for my fantasy rotation, but this is my bet that Miller and Stone will pass him on the depth chart. Not to mention Nastrini, Sheehan, and Frasso who all might be better than Pepiot too. He’s had control problems throughout his career and it hit a crescendo in his MLB debut with a 16.9% BB% in 36.1 IP. All 3 of his pitches get whiffs (fastball, change, slider), but none put up over a 30% whiff%. The fall off the table changeup is the money maker with a .227 xwOBA, which he combines with a 93.9 MPH that he threw 56.2% of the time and an average slider. LA’s depth, his control issues, and his limited repertoire has me leaning towards him being used out of the bullpen. 2023 Projection: 5/3.92/1.32/81 in 75 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.87/1.29/168 in 160 IP (if he sticks with Dodgers, in another org, I would go 4+ ERA)

10) James Outman LAD, OF, 25.10 – I’m a little scared by Outman’s big strikeout rates, but he has undeniable talent and there is a non zero chance he works his way into a large share of playing time in 2023. The close to the majors upside is worth the shot at this point in the rankings. He’s 6’3”, 205 pounds with a powerful lefty swing that cracked 31 homers in 125 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s also a good athlete, nabbing 13 bags. The aforementioned K rate is the issue as it sat at 29% at Double-A and 25% at Triple-A, before spiking to 43.8% in his 16 PA MLB debut. If he didn’t smoke the ball with a 99.6 MPH EV (1.409 OPS) in 6 batted ball events, I might not have been as high on him, and while it’s a small sample, you can’t really fake your way into hitting the ball that hard. I fear he’ll top out as a bench bat, but I’ll grab him if the price is right. 2023 Projection: 42/14/46/.228/.309/.431/5 Prime Projection: 65/19/68/.239/.320/.447/7

Just Missed

11) Nick Nastrini LAD, RHP, 23.1

12) Emmet Sheehan LAD, RHP, 23.4

13) Nick Frasso LAD, RHP, 24.5

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Odds are Bryce Harper is on a win now team in Dynasty, and with news he’s likely to be out for a few months into 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, I would go sniffing around to see if you can land him for any kind of a discount. Tommy John surgery is not nearly as big of a deal for hitters as it pitchers, and it’s very likely he returns to prime form. It also feels like the guy is 35 years old already because he’s been in the league since he was 19, but he’s still only 30 and should have several more years of elite production left. He’s in that true elite of the elite class of player that has a real chance of killing it deep into his 30’s. Harper would have been essentially untouchable before this injury, but now the window is open just a crack, and I would go after him regardless of where my team is in the contention cycle.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on November 29, 2021December 26, 2021 by Michael Halpern

Los Angeles Dodgers 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys and talk some team specific strategy for every team to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Los Angeles Dodgers 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
–A Top 100 Sneak Peek of my 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings with more early releases coming all off-season
-Dynasty Team Reports for every team (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)
–Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Top 56 Catchers dropped last week)
-End of Season 2021 Top 466 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
-End of Season 2021 Top 322 Dynasty Prospects Rankings

Hitters

Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 29.5 – I originally ranked Betts 14th overall on my Top 100 Sneak Peek of the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings, but when I was on the clock at 18th overall in the Rotowire 20 team OBP Dynasty Mock Draft, I found myself concerned that his hip injury could be the catalyst for him to stop running as much in the 2nd act of his career. A bone spur in his right hip led to a down season in 122 games where his sprint speed tanked to 27.1 ft/s and he stole only 3 bases in 5 attempts in his final 58 games. I’m more confident in his bat being just fine, because even in a down year he was still damn good with 23 homers and a 131 wRC+ in 122 games. None of his underlying hitting numbers really dropped off from career norms at all. The fear that he will stop running as much even if he does regain his speed, like we see with Trout and Altuve, has me thinking he will drop a bit on my next Sneak Peek update. 2022 Projection: 111/30/80/.288/.369/.519/13

Cody Bellinger LAD, OF/1B, 26.9 – I’m blaming the off-season shoulder surgery. It’s gotta be. I know pitchers started exploiting him up in the zone more too, but there is no other reasonable explanation for how insanely he fell off. There is no guarantee his shoulder ever truly goes back to what it was, and he was inconsistent even before the injury, so I’m not buying back in at elite level prices, but I’m certainly willing to take him on at a buy low price. 2022 Projection: 86/28/89/.251/.338/.494/10

Gavin Lux LAD, 2B, 24.4 – Lux significantly improved his plate approach in 2021 with a career best 21.8% K% and 10.8% BB%, and he notched a career high 89.8 MPH EV. But it’s homers and steals that rule in dynasty, and he’s still lacking there. He hits the ball on the ground too much (47.2% GB%), and while he put up a career best 92.6 MPH FB/LD EV, it’s still not great. He’s fast with a 29.1 ft/s sprint speed, but he’s only attempted 8 steals in his 144 game career. He did enough in 2021 to still be enticing in dynasty leagues, but not quite enough to get really excited. 2022 Projection: 76/18/68/.265/.340/.428/9

Starting Pitchers

Tony Gonsolin LAD, RHP, 27.11 – Right shoulder inflammation limited Gonsolin to 55.2 IP. He has two nasty secondaries in his slider and splitter, which put up a 47.8% and 41.4% whiff%, respectively. I would love him more if he was able to maintain the 95.1 MPH fastball he had in 2020, but it dropped down to 93.8 MPH this year. The pitch plays much better at the higher velocity. He also lost his control with a career worst 14.2% BB%. All together he is an above average strikeout pitcher with a career pitching line of 2.85/1.09/148/56 in 142.1 IP. It looks like he has a rotation spot. I’m buying Gonsolin, and the price is very affordable right now. 2022 Projection: 9/3.86/1.27/151 in 140 IP

Julio Urias LAD, LHP, 25.8 – I’ve been beating the don’t forget about Urias drum for a few years now and have consistently been the high man on him. It keeps paying off. Urias went next level breakout in 2021 with a pitching line of 2.96/1.02/195/38 in 185.2 IP. He has plus control (5.1% BB%-Top 6% of the league) of a 3 pitch mix that consistently induces weak contact (86 MPH EV against-Top 6% of the league). 2022 Projection: 14/3.42/1.09/193 in 180 IP

Bullpen

Blake Treinen LAD, Closer (for now), 33.9 – Treinen is the epitome of the volatile reliever with ERA’s all over the map in his 8 year career. 2021 was a great one, and he made real changes which gives hope this one is actually sustainable. He heavily reduced the use of his sinker and went to his slider and cutter more than ever. It led to a strikeout resurgence with a 29.7% K%. His 83.3 MPH EV against lead the league (150 BBE cutoff), with Loaisiga coming in 2nd and Jansen placing 3rd. Speaking of Jansen, Treinen is currently in the closer role, but they could easily bring Jansen back, or acquire a different closer altogether, so going after Treinen in Saves leagues is a risk right now. 2022 Projection: 5/3.30/1.18/71/25 in 65 IP

Los Angeles Dodgers Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects

1) Miguel Vargas LAD, 3B, 22.4 – Vargas is 6’3”, 205 pounds with potentially plus power that he naturally grew into more of this season. He doesn’t have to sell out to get to it, using the entire field and putting up excellent contact numbers. He slashed .319/.380/.526 with 23 homers, 11 steals, and a 16.4%/8.3% K%/BB% in 120 games at mostly Double-A. He’s not a burner but he’s been very successful on the bases in his minor league career (31 for 37 in 297 games), so at the least he won’t be a zero in that category. Vargas has started to get more love this off-season, but he’s still considerably underrated. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 86/26/88/.278/.344/.492/7

2) Bobby Miller LAD, RHP, 23.0 – Miller is 6’5”, 220 pounds with good control over a premium, MLB ready 5 pitch mix. His 4 seamer consistently reaches the upper 90’s and his 2 seamer has that nasty tailing action. The slider is plus, the changeup is potentially plus, and his curve can be an effective pitch too. It led to a pitching line of 2.40/0.94/70/13 in 56.1 IP at mostly High-A. He missed 6 weeks with an undisclosed injury and he rarely went more than 4 IP. He also got mashed in the AFL (9.90 ERA), but he mentioned he was specifically working on his curveball, so I wouldn’t be too concerned. Miller still has to prove it over longer outings and for more than 56.1 innings, but he has legitimate ace upside. 2022 Projection: 1/4.21/1.33/22 in 20 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.66/1.23/195 in 170 IP

3) Andy Pages LAD, OF, 21.4 – Pages had the 8th highest flyball percentage in all of the minor leagues among qualified hitters with a 55.3% FB%. It led to 31 homers in 120 games at High-A. He walks a ton with a 14.3% BB% and he has reasonable contact rates too with a 24.5% K%. LA’s High-A ballpark is a pitcher’s park that reduces homers, so he was actually much better on the road (1.016 OPS) than he was at home (.846 OPS). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 86/32/89/.255/.345/.503/4

4) Michael Busch LAD, 2B, 24.4 – Busch was unable to carry over his plus contact rates from college (26.1% K% in 107 games at Double-A), but he was able to carry over the power (20 homers) and walks (14.1% BB%). He’s your classic power, patience, and K’s slugger who would be helped if the NL adds a DH, because he’s not a great defensive player. 2022 Projection: Prime Projection: 84/25/84/.260/.347/.481/2

5) Diego Cartaya LAD, C, 20.7 – Cartaya is a big man at 6’3”, 219 pounds, and he had no trouble getting to his at least plus raw power with 10 homers and a 39.2% GB% in just 31 games at Single-A (a passport issue and then a hamstring injury ended his season early). Here he is smoking a 97 MPH fastball for a dinger in June. His 27% K% was high, but he was still able to show a good feel to hit with a .298 BA, and he also had a high 13.1% BB%. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 69/26/77/.260/.336/.472/0

6) Landon Knack LAD, RHP, 24.8 – If you’re going to trust just one minor league stat, K/BB rate is a great one to trust, and Knack is elite in that category with an 82/8 K/BB in 62.1 IP split between High-A and Double-A. He throws a mid 90’s fastball up in the zone with 3 secondaries that flash plus (slider, curve, change). He doesn’t go to the change that often and his slider is more consistent than his curve. I’m not necessarily seeing top of the rotation upside, but a low WHIP, high K mid-rotation starter plays up in fantasy. 2022 Projection: 1/4.40/1.30/15 in 15 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.90/1.21/175 in 165 IP

7) Eddys Leonard LAD, SS, 21.4 – Leonard isn’t physically imposing at 6’0”, 160 pounds (probably heavier than that now), but the ball definitely jumps off his bat. He whacked 22 homers in 107 games split between Single-A and High-A. His plate approach was solid with a 23.6%/10.4% K%/BB%, and he has some speed too with 9 steals. He isn’t likely to win you any one category, but he can be a damn good overall hitter. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/21/76/.265/.339/.446/7

8) Wilman Diaz LAD, SS, 18.5 – Diaz struggled in his first taste of pro ball with an 89 wRC+ and 27.7% K% in 24 games in the DSL. He was getting better as the season went along, and 24 games is a very small sample, so I wouldn’t panic based on the slow start to his career. He still has all the tools that made him a high priced international signing, but he obviously has a long way to go. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 82/23/76/.267/.333/.450/12

9) Jorbit Vivas LAD, 2B/3B, 21.1 – Vivas’ power broke out in 2021 with 14 homers in 106 games, but 13 of those homers came at Single-A with Rancho Cucamonga, a known hitter’s paradise, as his home ballpark. He hit just one homer in 23 games at High-A. Regardless, his power definitely ticked up this year, and he combines that with elite contact rates (11.5% K%). He’s a lefty with extreme splits, so there is platoon risk. LA just added Vivas to their 40 man, protecting him from the Rule 5 draft, so they definitely like him a lot. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 76/16/68/.278/.342/.423/6

10) Ryan Pepiot LAD, RHP, 24.7 – It’s all about that filthy, double plus changeup for Pepiot. It is one of, if not the best changeup in the minors. He combines that with a mid 90’s fastball and a much improved slider. His control has been an issue going back to college, and it hasn’t improved much with an 11.2% BB% at Double-A and 10.4% BB% at Triple-A. He destroyed Double-A in general (2.87 ERA in 59.2 IP), but he got destroyed in Triple-A (7.13 ERA in 41.2 IP). His control needs to improve to reach his mid rotation upside. 2022 Projection: 2/4.55/1.38/28 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.17/1.33/160 in 155 IP

Just Missed

11) Jose Ramos LAD, OF, 21.3

Strategy

LA is one of the best developmental organizations in the league, but they can also go out and sign big time free agents to fill any hole they have on the MLB level, so their prospects don’t get a very long leash (see, Gavin Lux). Many times they break in as depth pieces earlier in their career and have to earn more playing time later on. The same goes for their pitchers, as they love to mess with their rotation to give guys extra rest. It can be a nightmare when you are expecting a two start week in weekly lineup leagues. Overall, I don’t shy away from going after their prospects, but lack of playing time/innings is definitely something I factor in.

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)