Posted on by Michael Halpern

2025 Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings: Top 78 Catchers (Patreon)

The Dynasty Baseball Positional Rankings have arrived, and we kick off the festivities on Patreon with catchers (top 5 free here on the Brick Wall). Nobody wants to pay up for one, but when you are getting terrible production during the season, you start to maybe question that strategy a bit (I know I have in my 18 teamer). I’ll run through everyone from the elite studs, to the diamonds in the rough, to even just down to the rough in the rough at the very back of the rankings. Even 30 teamers need some love. Here is the 2025 Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings: Top 78 Catchers:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 75 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2025 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2024 TOP 322 PROSPECTS RANKS
-END OF SEASON 2024 438 DYNASTY RANKS
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS with full scouting reports and prime projections (a Top 100+ is coming later this off-season)
-2025 DEEP DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 Catchers
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: END OF SEASON MAILBAG!
-SPREADSHEETS
-OFF-SEASON CONTENT! – Dynasty Team Reports (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk) , Deep Positional Rankings, Predicting Future Prospect Lists, Fall/Winter League Updates, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks, Top 500+ Prospects Ranks, Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks & so much more!

Previous Dynasty Team Reports (free ones listed in parenthesis)

Atlanta Braves—Baltimore Orioles—Cincinnati Reds–Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Detroit Tigers—Los Angeles Angels—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers (free)—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—Oakland Athletics—Philadelphia Phillies—Pittsburgh Pirates—San Diego Padres—Tampa Bay Rays—Washington Nationals (free)

Tier 1

1) William Contreras – MIL, C, 27.3 – Contreras is coming off back to back seasons finishing as the #1 catcher in fantasy. He’s smack dab in the middle of his prime at 27 years old. There isn’t much of an argument for anybody else to hold down the #1 dynasty catcher in the game spot. He smashes the ball with a career high 92.8 MPH EV that is in the top 6% of the league, and his 118.1 MPH Max EV was the 4th hardest hit ball all season. He has a good feel to hit and a plus plate approach (20.5/11.5 K%/BB%). And he also nabbed 9 bags this year, which is a really, really nice little bonus to get from your catcher. The only quibble with his profile is that he hits it on the ground a lot with a 54.5% GB%, which definitely limits his homer upside, but he hits the ball hard enough where he can still hit plenty of dingers, as evidenced by him knocking out 23 this year. – 2025 Projection: 88/22/84/.279/.360/.460/6

2) Adley Rutschman – BAL, C, 27.2 – It was announced that Baltimore is moving the left field fences back in after moving them out and making them taller before the 2022 season. Gotta love baseball where teams can just be like, yea, we are going to make our field smaller, or bigger, or whatever they hell they want. How fun if in football teams can just be like, so we’re going to make out homefield 150 yards next year. Or 75 yards. Or if in basketball they can just make the rim 11 feet high. It’s genuinely a cool thing that everything isn’t so cookie cutter. And I respect Baltimore for realizing they overcorrected their fences originally and figuring out a happy medium. The Orioles had the 9th worst park for righty homers in 2024, so hopefully that number rises closer to the middle of the pack or higher. And with Adley Rutschman being a switch hitter who put up an 18.8 degree launch with a 42.1% Pull%, this is only going to help his lackluster homer totals. This is a nice bump for his fantasy value, which was starting to get quite boring. He hit .250 with 19 homers and 1 steal in 148 games. His OBP league owners were upset too with his 9.1% BB% (13.4% in 2023) and .318 OBP. He makes a ton of contact (17.1% whiff%), but he does it with a slow swing (69 MPH which is well below average), so he really hasn’t done a ton of damage with an almost dead average Barrel% in his career. Moving the fences in is perfect for him, and while it might not be an explosion, 23 homers would be better than 19, along with the added BA, RBI and Runs that come with it. Everything seems setup for him to have a relatively big age 27 year old season. 2025 Projection: 76/23/83/.265/.341/.445/2

3) Yainer Diaz – HOU, C, 26.7 – Diaz’ launch went in the wrong direction in 2024, dropping from 11.5 to 8.5 degrees, and it tanked his Barrel% from 12.2% to 7.6%. He went from hitting 23 homers with a .538 SLG to 16 homers with a .441 SLG. He still hit the ball tremendously hard with a 90.2/94.5 MPH AVG/FB EV, and his contact rates hit a career best with a 17.3% K%, so he was still an excellent offense player, finishing as the 4th best catcher in fantasy. Lowering the launch and improving the contact rates also resulted in a career best .299 BA with a .295 xBA to back it up. He’s a really good offensive catcher no matter where the launch lands, but for fantasy, it would be nice if he could bring that back up to 2023 levels, or even higher. He has a terrible plate approach with a 3.9% BB% and 42.6% Chase%, so certainly take a star away here for OBP leagues, but he’s clearly proven he can make the profile work while he’s in his physical prime. 2025 Projection: 71/19/85/.287/.319/.461/1

Tier 2

4) Samuel Basallo – BAL, C/1B, 20.7 – Basallo didn’t quite obliterate the upper minors like he did the lower minors, slashing .278/.341/.449 with 19 homers, 10 steals, and a 21.1/8.6 K%/BB% in 127 games, but when you take into account that he was 19 years old for the vast majority of the season, it gets a lot more impressive. He was also much better at Double-A with a 134 wRC+ in 106 games than he was at Triple-A (62 wRC+ with a 31.4% K% in 21 games), so I think we can give him a pass for an adjustment period with a new team, coaches, teammates, league, home park etc … Even at Triple-A, the sweet lefty swinging, 6’4” Basallo put up a 91.1 MPH EV. He’s always put up solid contact rates in the minors, but the spike at Triple-A could also be an indicator that we shouldn’t expect the highest BA at least early in his career. He puts the ball on the ground a decent amount, but with his type of double plus power, he’s launch proof. I don’t know where he fits in defensively with Adley behind the plate, and plenty of competition at 1B (Mayo and Mountcastle), but long term there seems to be plenty of room for all of them. He’s a special power bat. – 2025 Projection: 28/9/35/.241/.300/.430/2 Prime Projection: 84/30/97/.268/.337/.505/6

5) Francisco Alvarez – NYM, C, 23.4 – Alvarez just went through an almost textbook sophomore slump season. He followed up his 25 homer rookie year in 123 games with a disappointing sophomore campaign, jacking out only 11 in 113 games, including the playoffs. The underlying stats back up the mediocre numbers with a 12.8% Barrel% in 2023 vs. a 6.7% in 2024, but the sophomore slump isn’t about getting unlucky, it’s about the game of adjustments. And even with the down power year, he actually put up a better wRC+ this year (102) than he did last year (97), so it was also about Alvarez working on becoming a more complete hitter himself. This is just the normal ebb and flow of a young player’s career, and with Alvarez going through those growing pains as a 21-22 year old on the major league level, I’m not even the slightest bit concerned. His power can’t be held down for long with a 114.8 MPH Max EV which was in the top 5% of the league, and his 88.8/94.2 MPH AVG/FB EV was still really good. He also made some incremental improvements to the contact rates, bringing the whiff% under 30% to 29.6%, to go along with a his solid 28.9% Chase%. Alvarez is still right on track to be one of the top hitting catchers in the game for the next decade. I’m smelling a big year 3 where he really puts it all together. – 2025 Projection: 68/25/82/.246/.323/.458/2

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Top 322 September 2024 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings (Patreon)

Jasson Dominguez was originally ranked first overall when I started this list, but with his callup last night, he is no longer eligible. So a brand new #1 prospect is crowned in Kristian Campbell! Any player currently in the majors is ineligible for this list, and I use that eligibility because I find lists are more fun/interesting/valuable when they highlight new up and coming talent. Dominguez was already the first overall prospect in the August Rankings, so he had his time. The Updated Dynasty Rankings coming in two weeks will have all of the prospects in the majors ranked, and obviously any player who retains prospect eligibility at the end of the season will be reinserted into the off-season prospects rankings. Bur for now, it’s all about ranking prospects still in the minors. As usual, I go over 300 deep with blurbs for every player. Top 25 free here on the Brick Wall. Here is the Top 322 September 2024 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON & OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-SEPTEMBER TOP 322 PROSPECTS RANKS
-AUGUST TOP 274 DYNASTY RANKS (UPDATED TOP 400+ DYNASTY RANKS COMING IN 2 WEEKS)
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS with full scouting reports and prime projections
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: AUGUST MAILBAG! (SEPT MAILBAG COMING NEXT WEEK)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS
-OFF-SEASON CONTENT! – Dynasty Team Reports, Team Prospect Rankings, Deep Positional Rankings, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks, Top 500+ Prospects Ranks, Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks & so much more!

*Previous Rankings are in parenthesis

**Any player currently in the majors is ineligible

1) (34) (157) (UR) (UR) Kristian Campbell – BOS, 2B/OF, 22.3 –  A new #1 overall fantasy prospect is crowned, and that man’s name is Kristian Campbell. Here is what I wrote about Campbell in his latest Dynasty Baseball Rundown blurb, “I was asked about a comp for Campbell in the August Mailbag Podcast, and I couldn’t really think up of a great comp. But after watching him continue his absolute tear through Triple-A, maybe Fernando Tatis Jr. is the perfect comp. I didn’t want to go that lofty on the comp, but he has the size (6’3”, 210 pounds), the athleticism (23 steals) and power (20 homers) to live up to it.” … he currently has a 90 MPH EV in 16 games at Triple-A, and on his latest homer, I think he dislocated his shoulder with one of the most bad intentions swings I’ve seen. The launch is low and the hit tool still has some risk, so he’s not an absolutely perfect prospect, but he’s clearly an elite prospect. Campbell vs. Anthony is a coin flip for me, and Anthony being two years younger almost gave him the nod, but ultimately I couldn’t pass up on Campbell. He’s my top dog.

2) (3) (12) (10) (14) Roman Anthony – BOS, OF, 20.4 – How about the Sox having the top 2 prospects in the minor leagues right now? And they have far more than that too, they are not just top heavy. I hope the Yanks and Orioles are having their fun, because the Sox are coming real soon. As for Anthony, Triple-A isn’t slowing him down at all with a 149 wRC+ and 18.2/12.7 K%/BB% in 23 games. High groundball rates and poor base stealing are the only quibbles in his profile. He’s an upper middle class man’s Gunnar Henderson

3) (4) (8) (3) (19) Matt Shaw – CHC, 3B, 22.10 – Shaw has a 91.4 MPH EV with 4 homers in 23 games at Triple-A just in case anyone was questioning his power at 5’9”. He combines that with contact, approach and speed. He still feels underrated to me

4) (6) (15) (15) (58) Carson Williams – TBR, SS, 21.2 – 28.1% K% in 111 games at Double-A is starting to creep up there, but it’s not high enough to scare me off. He can be just fine with a K% in the high 20’s throughout his career, and if he get eventually get it under 25%, we could be looking at an elite fantasy player with his at least plus power/speed combo

5) (5) (9) (4) (25) Emmanuel Rodriguez – MIN, OF, 21.6 – Finally returned from a thumb injury and is now getting his first shot at Triple-A where he has a 41.7% K% in 5 games (as well as 1 homer and a 25% BB%). If anyone can hit under .200 with an over .400 OBP, it will be Rodriguez

6) (9) (14) (18) (64) Noah Schultz – CHW, LHP, 21.1 – His profile is almost unheard of. A 6’9” lefty with double plus stuff and plus control. Even Randy Johnson struggled with control earlier in his career. Randy actually had an insane 318 walks in 400.1 minor league innings pitched before getting the call to the bigs. Schultz is unprecedented. He’s easily my top pitching prospect in the game.

7) (11) (11) (11) (27) Samuel Basallo – BAL, C/1B, 20.1 – The upper minors definitely slowed him down a bit, and Triple-A is slowing him down more than a bit with a 41.3/4.3 K%/BB% and 19 wRC+ in 10 games. He’s barely 20 years old, so it’s an extremely encouraging season overall, but his comp maybe goes from Yordan Alvarez to Rafael Devers. Not bad

8) (12) (72) (58) (88) Leodalis De Vries – SDP, SS, 17.10 – De Vries vs. Jenkins vs. Walcott seems to be a popular debate, and I have De Vries first out of that group right now because he’s the one who has already tapped into his raw power the most. He ripped 11 homers in his last 40 games and he has a 49.3% FB% on the season. All 3 are going to be great, but that is what gives the small edge to De Vries at the moment.

9) (13) (23) (8) (12) Walker Jenkins – MIN, OF, 19.6 –  I comped Jenkins to Kyle Tucker, and Jenkins’ first year of pro ball is going very similarly to Tucker’s. Tucker had 9 homers with 32 steals and a 16.3/10.1 K%/BB% in 117 games in the lower minors, and Jenkins has 6 homers with 15 steals and a 12.7/15.6 K%/BB% in 76 games. Like Tucker, the power explosion is almost certainly coming

10) (14) (7) (NA) (6) Jordan Lawlar – ARI, SS, 22.1 – Lawlar tore his shoulder swinging a bat. He broke his thumb fielding a grounder. And he suffered a major hamstring strain presumably when running. Swinging a bat, fielding grounders, and running is basically the job, and getting majorly injured so often while doing these routine things makes it appropriate to slap the dreaded “injury prone” label on him. The good news is that he’s back from the hamstring injury and went 1 for 5 in his return. He just has to stay healthy

11) (40) (112) (75) (158) Bubba Chandler – PIT, RHP, 21.11 – I was a little hesitant this off-season to go all in on Chandler, because while the huge stuff was undeniable, he still needed a lot of refinement. Well, that refinement came this off-season and he’s now destroying Triple-A with a 1.93 ERA and 32.1/9.8 K%/BB% in 28 IP. The fastball averages 96.7 MPH and is a bat missing weapon. The slider is his most used secondary and it induces weak contact and misses bats. The changeup is his best secondary with a 40.5% whiff% and 79.7 MPH EV against at Triple-A. And finally the curve is a good pitch too. As long as the control/command stays solid, this is an easy ace. Pitt is absolutely stacked with both high end talent and depth

12) (8) (FYPD-1) (NA) (NA) Travis Bazzana – CLE, 2B, 22.0 – A lot of these college bats are getting a cold splash of water to the face after putting up video game numbers in college. Bazzana is hitting well with a 126 wRC+ in 27 games at High-A, but a .238/.369/.396 slashline with 3 homers and a 25.4% K% is not exactly screaming no doubt MLB superstar. I still love him, and I think he’s still going to be an impact fantasy player, but it’s at least something to think about

13) (17) (FYPD-2) (NA) (NA) JJ Wetherholt – STL, 2B, 22.0 – Profile is completely transferring to pro ball, slashing .295/.405/.400 with 2 homers, 2 steals, and a 11.9/12.7 K%/BB% in 29 games at Single-A. His upside might not be quite as high as some of the other bats, but he probably has the highest floor, and I do think there is 20/20 upside in here

14) (20) (22) (55) (83) Josue De Paula – LAD, OF, 19.3 – The last step to elite prospect status is an uptick in game power with 10 homers in 107 games, and while he certainly has the huge raw power in the tank, we only have to look at Jordan Walker to not take it for granted

15) (21) (33) (30) (33) Sebastian Walcott – TEX, SS, 18.7 – The 25.5% K% is still on the high side, and he hasn’t fully tapped into his raw power with 10 homers in 116 games at High-A, but all of that is just nitpicking. He has a 123 wRC+ as an 18 year old at High-A. College hitters are struggling to keep their heads above water at that level right now. Future star

16) (24) (48) (28) (28) Max Clark – DET, OF, 19.9 – I gave him the Corbin Carroll/Pete Crow Armstrong comp, and he was exactly as advertised in the lower minors. When the power ticks up, like we are seeing with Pete Crow right now, there is superstar upside

17) (15) (13) (6) (15) Jackson Jobe – DET, RHP, 22.1 – Is everyone just ignoring the 12.7% BB% in 73.2 IP at Double-A? I love Jobe just as much as the next guy, but it feels like this is getting majorly glossed over at the moment. He’s also had some injury issues in his career. Huge upside, but the risk is starting to creep up there too

18) (123) (265) (263) (319) Kumar Rocker – TEX, RHP, 24.8 – Returned from Tommy John surgery and he’s going full elite pitching prospect on us with a 1.96 ERA and 55/5 K/BB in 36.2 IP at mostly Double-A and Triple-A. The fastball sits 97.9 MPH and the slider is double plus to elite. He also mixes in a cutter, sinker and slider. If you want to ignore all risk from the shoulder surgery and Tommy John surgery which delayed his career, he has a case to be the top pitching prospect in the game, but I think factoring in some risk is prudent. All pitchers are risky, so I’m not going to dock him too much, but I’m not going to put him as the #1 pitcher on this list. He’s going to make his MLB debut on Thursday, and since he’s not up quite yet, he cracks this list.

19) (22) (27) (17) (36) Andrew Painter – PHI, RHP, 21.2 –  Painter underwent Tommy John surgery in late July 2023, which will keep him out for all of 2024. He has the type of elite upside to take the Tommy John discount on, but I do think you have to factor some risk in

20) (61) (92) (92) (105) Bryce Eldridge – SFG, OF, 19.9 – His dominance at High-A was so spectacular (187 wRC+ in 48 games) that it earned him a promotion to Double-A as a 19 year old, and he’s looked great there too with 1 homer, 19.2/11.5 K%/BB% and 115 wRC+ in 6 games. He’s 6’7” with elite power. No two ways about it at this point. He’s a truly elite power hitting prospect

21) (19) (18) (24) (48) Marcelo Mayer – BOS, SS, 21.9 – 141 wRC+ in 77 games at Double-A, but how big the power/speed combo will end up is still a question. He has only 8 homers with a 47.4% GB%, and he’s not a burner despite a solid 13 steals. He might end up more solid than standout in the majors, but at only 21, there is plenty of development time left to go

22) (25) (24) (12) (35) Colt Emerson – SEA, SS, 19.2 – High-A slowed him down a bit with a 90 wRC+ and 21.6% K% in 29 games, but on the plus side, he’s running a ton with 9 steals at the level. He’s 15 for 17 in 70 games on the season, so while he might not be a true burner, he looks like he could be a skilled baserunner

23) (23) (FYPD-3) (NA) (NA) Chase Burns – CIN, RHP, 21.8 – Yet to debut

24) (27) (28) (19) (68) Tink Hence – STL, RHP, 22.1 – Little Tink can’t seem to get true elite pitching prospect buzz because he isn’t a big guy, but size aside, the dude is elite with a 2.76 ERA and 34.4/8.0 K%/BB% in 78.1 IP at Double-A. He has the nasty stuff to back up the numbers. If he was a broad 6’2”, there would be zero questions about him

25) (35) (70) (82) (189) Thomas White – MIA, LHP, 19.10 – 2.61 ERA with a 29.9/8.3 K%/BB% in 62 IP at High-A. He has the size and stuff to back it up. He’s on the short list for #1 pitching prospect in the game once the guys in the upper minors graduate

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON & OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-SEPTEMBER TOP 322 PROSPECTS RANKS
-AUGUST TOP 274 DYNASTY RANKS (UPDATED TOP 400+ DYNASTY RANKS COMING IN 2 WEEKS)
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS with full scouting reports and prime projections
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: AUGUST MAILBAG! (SEPT MAILBAG COMING NEXT WEEK)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS
-OFF-SEASON CONTENT! – Dynasty Team Reports, Team Prospect Rankings, Deep Positional Rankings, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks, Top 500+ Prospects Ranks, Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks & so much more!

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Top 327 August 2024 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings (Patreon)

The trade deadline has passed. The 2024 MLB Draft is in the books. And that means it’s time to update the Top 300+ Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings over on the Patreon. Top 23 free here on the Brick Wall. Any player currently in the majors is ineligible for this list. So if you’re in the minors and have under 130 AB or 50 IP, you are eligible. As usual, I go over 300 deep with blurbs for every player. Here is the Top 327 August 2024 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-AUGUST TOP 327 PROSPECTS RANKS
-MID-SEASON TOP 422 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (7/12/24)
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS (7/19/24)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JULY MAILBAG! (7/31/24)
-TOP 11 MID-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS (6/25/24)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

*Previous Rankings are in parenthesis

**Any player currently in the majors is ineligible

1) (2) (NA) (8) Jasson Dominguez – NYY, OF, 21.6 – Alex Verdugo has a 87 wRC+ and isn’t a particularly good defensive player. It’s getting mighty close to that time for The Martian to invade New York again, and we saw what happened the last time he invaded New York with 4 bombs in just 8 games. His combination of upside and proximity is hard to match. He deserves the #1 spot on these rankings with all of prospects in the major leagues being ineligible for this list.

2) (5) (NA) (4) Junior Caminero – TBR, 3B/SS, 21.1 – Caminero is a close 2nd to Dominguez in terms of upside and proximity. But he doesn’t steal bases (1 steal in 48 games), and it sure feels like Tampa is ready to manipulate the hell out of his service time

3) (12) (10) (14) Roman Anthony – BOS, OF, 20.3 – The game power and stolen base speed have arrived at Double-A with 10 homers and 10 steals in his last 38 games. There is still some low launch (46.1% GB%) and high K (25.9% K%) in his game, but that feels like nitpicking for a barely 20 year old kid with a 134 wRC+ in the upper minors.

4) (8) (3) (19) Matt Shaw – CHC, 3B, 22.9 – Earned a callup to Triple-A by obliterating Double-A over his last 46 games, slashing .333/.400/.582 with 11 homers, 15 steals, and a 13.6%/9.7% K%/BB%. The Paredes trade complicated his path to playing time, but I’m trusting it to get sorted one way or another by 2025. Shaw still feels underrated to me

5) (9) (4) (25) Emmanuel Rodriguez – MIN, OF, 21.5 – A thumb injury from sliding into 2nd base put an abrupt halt to Rodriguez’ massive season at Double-A (201 wRC+ in 37 games). Even my 9 year old nephew uses one of those huge sliding mitts when on the bases (it’s kinda hilarious). Come on EmRod. It doesn’t change how much I love him with a monster OBP/power/speed combo, but it’s definitely annoying

6) (15) (15) (58) Carson Williams – TBR, SS, 21.1 – The hit tool concerns aren’t completely out of the woods with a 27% K% and .255 BA, but the age to level, power (14 homers), speed (28 steals), and glove more than make up for that. Plus, the K rate is actually improved from what he did in the lower minors. The Rays starting SS job is waiting for him

7) (FYPD-1) Charlie Condon – COL, 3B/1B/OF, 21.4 – Ranked 1st overall on the 2025 Top 57 FYPD Rankings (Patreon), writing, “I was all set to have Bazzana #1 on my FYPD Board, but with Condon going to Coors with the 3rd overall pick in the draft, it rattled my whole game plan. How can you pass up on a massive human being, with massive numbers, in the best conference in college baseball, going to the best ballpark in the majors, which just so happens to juice up the only slight quibble in his profile? The answer is, you can’t. Or at least I can’t. Condon has to be the top dog now. He’s 6’6”, 215 pounds and he swings the bat like it’s a literal twig. He ripped 37 homers in 60 games in the SEC this year and has 62 homers in 116 career games in the SEC. The power is near elite (I say near elite, because Jac has more power). He improved both his contact rates and plate approach this year with a 13.5%/18.8% K%/BB%, and like I alluded to, Coors Field juices up batting average the most. Coors is actually slightly below average for homers in 2024, but with 6’6” baseball players, it’s always the BA you have to watch out for, so this landing spot is perfect. He’s not going to steal many bases, but he’s a good athlete, and he should be able to nab a handful. If your team really needs the stolen bases, I can maybe see going Bazzana one, but all things being equal, there is just too much offense upside in that hitting environment to pass up on Condon in the top spot. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 99/34/107/.276/.357/.529/6″

8) (FYPD-2) Travis Bazzana – CLE, 2B, 21.11 – Ranked 2nd overall on the 2025 Top 57 FYPD Rankings (Patreon), writing, “Selected 1st overall, Bazzana looks like a tightly wound ball of kinetic energy that is just ready to explode in the box (I think ball of “Potential” energy is actually the correct scientific term, but I felt like “Kinetic” just hit harder 🙂 … There is toe tapping and bat wiggling before he absolutely uncoils on the baseball, jacking 28 homers in 60 games in the Pac 12 this year, and also smoking 6 homers with a 1.037 OPS in the wood bat cape cod league in 2023. He’s “only” 6 feet tall, but there is easy plus power in here at the least. He combines the plus power with a near elite plate approach/hit tool (12.5%/25.7% K%/BB%), and speed (16 steals). He’s the total offensive package, and there is a reason he got taken #1 overall by a very smart franchise despite limited defensive value. The only thing that can stop him seems to be his parents. His parents almost ended his career before it started when celebrating. His dad tried to rip his arm out of his socket, and then his mom put him in some kind of neck hold into a tripping maneuver. Travis almost looked like he was about to square up with his mom for a second there. I guess they do things differently Down Under in Australia. Either way, he survived, and if you want to give Bazzana the edge over Condon because of steals, I wouldn’t blame you. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 100/25/91/.287/.366/.481/23″

9) (14) (18) (64) Noah Schultz – CHW, LHP, 21.0 – He’s yet to throw more than 4 IP in any outing of his career and he only has 65.2 IP on the season. Workload is the only thing to nitpick here, because everything else is straight elite with a 1.64 ERA and 29.6%/6.6% K%/BB% in 38.1 IP at Double-A. Schultz was my top pitcher target in his FYPD class, and he’s arrived

10) (10) (9) (10) Dylan Crews – WAS, OF, 22.4 – Just when we were ready to put the rough 2023 Double-A debut behind us, he went out and looked mighty mediocre when he got the call to Triple-A with a 87 wRC+ in 34 games. But the individual components look better with a 17.1%/9.1% K%/BB%, 4 homers, and 5 steals. He’s looking more like an above average across the board contributor rather than a true star right now though

11) (11) (11) (27) Samuel Basallo – BAL, C/1B, 19.11 – You couldn’t pry Basallo away from Baltimore’s cold dead hands at the deadline, and for good reason, as he’s still 19 years old with 15 homers, a 127 wRC+ and 20.9%/8.9% K%/BB% in 88 games at Double-A. At 6’4”, he has future beast written all over him

12) (72) (58) (88) Leodalis De Vries – SDP, SS, 17.9 – The explosion is on, slashing .274/.397/.573 with 9 homers, 6 steals, and 22%/14.9% K%/BB% in his last 29 games. He now has a well above average 110 wRC+ in 64 games at Single-A. He’s my favorite to be the #1 prospect in the game by this time next year

13) (23) (8) (12) Walker Jenkins – MIN, OF, 19.5 – Showed an elite plate approach at Single-A (11.3%/18.5% K%/BB% in 33 games), which is exciting because we know the big power is in there at 6’3”, 210 pounds. He hasn’t been as good since getting the call to High-A with a 61 wRC+ and 18.2%/9.2% K%/BB%, but obviously it’s too small of a sample to say anything

14) (7) (NA) (6) Jordan Lawlar – ARI, SS, 22.1 – Lawlar tore is shoulder swinging a bat. He broke his thumb fielding a grounder. And he suffered a major hamstring strain presumably when running. Swinging a bat, fielding grounders, and running is basically the job, and getting majorly injured so often while doing these routine things makes it appropriate to slap the dreaded “injury prone” label on him. I still love him, but the injuries are piling up

15) (13) (6) (15) Jackson Jobe – DET, RHP, 22.0 – The elite control from 2023 has vanished with a 14.5% BB% in 42.1 IP at Double-A. He went from Maddux to Misiorowski. But he’s still dominating with a 1.91 ERA and 30.6% K%, and I don’t believe that walk rate is his true talent. Not budging on him

16) (FYPD-3) Jac Caglionone – KCR, 1B/LHP, 21.6 – Ranked 3rd overall on the 2025 Top 57 FYPD Rankings (Patreon), writing, “Selected 6th overall, Caglionone is a giant human being at 6’5”, 250 pounds. Condon may have an extra inch on him, but he can’t even come close to Caglinone’s sheer mass. And it’s not Dan Vogelbach mass, it’s elite NFL TE type mass and athleticism. This is what truly elite power looks like, and he has no trouble getting to that power with 75 homers in 165 career games in the SEC. He also pitches with a fastball that can reach the upper 90’s to give you an idea of the type of athlete we are talking about, even if his future is almost certainly with the bat. The plate approach and hit tool were questions coming into the year, but he massively improved in those areas this year with a 8.2%/18.4% K%/BB% (18.2%/5.3% in 2023). The biggest knock on his profile is the very high chase rate, making him riskier than the other top bats in his class, but let me make a counter argument to that for a second. One, basically every hitter with an extremely high walk rate and low chase got criticized for not swinging enough, namely Kurtz. Jac is getting criticized for swinging too much. You can’t win. Two, if I was a pitcher, I wouldn’t want to give this guy anything to hit either. Sure, he chased, but not to his detriment. He did a ton of damage (.419 BA with a 1.419 OPS) and made a ton of contact. Three, there is something to be said about Jac proving he can hit very tough pitches that are out of the zone. It goes without saying that pro pitching and MLB pitching is much, much, much tougher than college pitching. You are going to have to hit tough pitches. You can’t always wait for a perfect pitch. Jac has proven he can do that. Maybe that’s just the lawyer in me to feel the pull to argue for a clear negative, ha, but it sounded good, right? I feel like there’s something to it, and on pure upside, Jac very well might be the top guy in the class. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 94/37/109/.261/.342/.524/8″

17) (FYPD-4) JJ Wetherholt – STL, 2B, 21.11 – Ranked 4th overall on the 2025 Top 57 FYPD Rankings (Patreon), writing, “Selected 7th overall, Wetherholt slid in the draft a bit after getting a lot of #1 overall buzz. Maybe it was the injuries, missing about half of the season with a hamstring injury and still not being fully healthy when he returned. It was his 2nd major hamstring injury within the year. It could also be that he is on the small side at 5’10”, and doesn’t have quite the raw power of the other top college hitters in the draft. Don’t get me wrong, he definitely has plenty of power, but about a 16 homer pace is not that impressive when everyone else is hitting 30. Or maybe it’s that he didn’t face the toughest competition in the Big 12. What he does better than maybe anyone else in the draft though is hit. He put up a 10.4%/18.3% K%/BB% in 2024 and had a 8.2% K% in 2023. He’s a complete hitter who uses the entire field with a quick and simple lefty swing. He also rocks the little man leg kick which I love, ensuring he will get the most out of his very good raw power. Tack on plus speed (57 steals in 145 career games), and you have a damn enticing fantasy player even if his power upside doesn’t quite match some of the other bats in the class. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 97/21/82/.290/.357/.462/26″

18) (19) (32) (41) Xavier Isaac – TBR, 1B, 20.8 – Called up to Double-A and went lefty on lefty for his first homer at the level in his 3rd game. The power is no joke, but the hit tool has some risk with a 30% K% at High-A and 42.9% K% in 3 games at Double-A

19) (18) (24) (48) Marcelo Mayer – BOS, SS, 21.8 – 140 wRC+ in 77 games at Double-A, but how big the power/speed combo will end up is still a question. He has only 8 homers with a 47.4% GB%, and he’s not a burner despite a solid 13 steals. He might end up more solid than standout in the majors, but at only 21, there is plenty of development time left to go.

20) (22) (55) (83) Josue De Paula – LAD, OF, 19.2 – Everything is translating to High-A except for the BABIP (.236). De Vries, Jenkins, De Paula and my next guy, Walcott, is going to be a super fun 1, 2. 3, 4 one day atop the prospects rankings

21) (33) (30) (33) Sebastian Walcott – TEX, SS, 18.6 – Destroying High-A for awhile now, slashing .301/.356/.534 with 7 homers, 9 steals, and a 24.7%/7.7% in his last 45 games. That’s insanely impressive for an 18 year old, and the tools are elite at 6’4”

22) (27) (17) (36) Andrew Painter – PHI, RHP, 21.2 –  Painter underwent Tommy John surgery in late July 2023, which will keep him out for all of 2024. He has the type of elite upside to take the Tommy John discount on, but I do think you have to factor some risk in

23) (FYPD-5) Chase Burns – CIN, RHP, 21.7 – Ranked 5th overall on the 2025 Top 57 FYPD Rankings (Patreon), writing, “Selected 2nd overall, dynasty managers owe a huge debt of gratitude to Cincinnati for going Burns over Condon. It would have made me legitimately sad to see Burns going to the Rockies. I know Cincinnati is no cake walk for pitchers themselves, but they just have a small ballpark, they don’t have different air. And we’ve seen plenty of pitchers have excellent seasons in Cincy (Castillo, Gray, Greene, Lodolo), so I wouldn’t let this landing spot move you off Burns at all. He has legit ace upside at a strong 6’3”, 210 pounds with a double plus fastball that sits in the upper 90’s and a double plus slider that put up elite whiff rates. It led to a 2.70 ERA with a ridiculous 48.8%/7.7% K%/BB% in 100 IP in the ACC. He’s inevitably going to get compared to Skenes, and Skenes put up a 1.69 ERA with a 45.2%/4.3% K%/BB% in 122.2 IP in the SEC. Skenes was in the tougher conference (although Burns pitched well in the SEC in 2022-23 before transferring to the ACC) with a better ERA, better walk rate and more IP. Burns isn’t as good as Skenes, but not many are better than Skenes, so that isn’t much of a knock. Burns also throws a curve and changeup to give him a legit starters pitch mix, and how well he can develop those pitches could dictate whether he becomes a true ace or a high K, #2/3 type. If your dynasty team is stacked with hitting, I don’t think taking Burns #1 overall should be ruled out. The teams that took Skenes over Langford and Crews in 2024 aren’t complaining too much right now. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 15/3.23/1.08/245 in 190 IP”

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Top 305 June 2024 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings (Patreon)

May’s update was all about the pure prospects. Any MLB taint disqualified you from the list. But I swung it back in the other direction for this month’s update because I just felt like it would be more interesting to see where the new popups fit in with the old guard. I’m unpredictable like that. So keep in mind that the previous month’s rankings are not a direct comparison with this month. It might look like guys dropped, but really it’s just because players were added into the rankings who were ineligible last month. Top 20 free here on the Brick Wall. Blurbs for every player. Here is the Top 3005 June 2024 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings:

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*Previous Rankings are in parenthesis (May’s Non-Debuted Pure Prospects Rankings) (Off-Season Rankings)

1) (2) (16) Paul Skenes – PIT, RHP, 21.11 – Mercury must be in retrograde or something, because I never thought I would see the day when I ranked a pitcher as the top prospect in baseball, but that day is today. Skenes jumped up to the majors and immediately overwhelmed MLB hitters with a 3.00 ERA and 35.5%/5.6% K%/BB% in 27 IP. He’s not only my top prospect in the game, he’s my top dynasty pitcher in the game, ranking 19th overall on my latest Top 414 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon).

2) (NA) (8) Jasson Dominguez – NYY, OF, 21.4 – You know what Dominguez doesn’t have in common with Holliday and Caminero? His MLB debut was actually electric with 4 homers in 8 games, and now that he’s back from Tommy John surgery, it’s like he never left with 6 homers in 15 upper minors games. Maybe the hit tool is still a bit riskier, but he more than makes up for that with upside due to how much he loves to run. Dominguez is my #1 hitting prospect in baseball.

3) (1) (9) James Wood – WAS, OF, 21.9 – Wood’s strikeout rate is better than both Holliday and Caminero’s at Triple-A. We saw Holliday’s K rate skyrocket in his MLB debut, and Wood’s plate approach is superior to Caminero’s. We’ve seen both Holliday and Caminero struggle in their MLB debuts. He runs more than both Holliday and Caminero. He hits the ball harder than both Holliday and Caminero. I can’t guarantee that Wood ends up better than Holliday and Caminero, and at his height, he most probably does have more hit tool risk, but I don’t think either can match Wood’s upside, and judging based only on 2024, his hit tool is more than holding his own vs. those guys. I’m a glutton for upside, and there might not be a prospect in baseball with more upside than Wood.

4) (NA) (2) Jackson Holliday – BAL, SS, 20.6 – If the terrible MLB debut never happened, we would all be losing our minds on what a travesty it is that Jackson Holliday and his 140 wRC+ is still at Triple-A. With all the extremely aggressive assignments throughout all levels of professional baseball, and the mostly lackluster results, it feels like the pendulum has swung too far in the other extreme. How about some middle ground. “Everything in moderation, even moderation.”

5) (NA) (4) Junior Caminero – TBR, 3B/SS, 20.11 – Caminero’s 106 wRC+ in 34 games at Triple-A isn’t super impressive, but he’s still crushing the ball (92.4 MPH EV), ripping homers (8 homers), and showing a decent plate approach (22.9%/9.2% K%/BB%). And he’s still only 20. He’s still on track to reach his righty Devers comp.

6) (NA) (11) Noelvi Marte – CIN, 3B, 22.8 – I think there is a case to put Marte over Holliday and Caminero as well due to his much superior MLB debut, but let’s get a looksie on him post PED suspension before getting ahead of ourselves. Maybe he was cheating.

7) (NA) (6) Jordan Lawlar – ARI, SS, 21.10 – Lawlar started a rehab assignment in rookie ball coming off thumb surgery. Nobody has staked claim to Arizona’s SS job in his absence, and while Perdomo is on the comeback trail as well, I just don’t think he has the bat to hold the job. Lawlar should get his shot at some point in the 2nd half

8) (3) (19) Matt Shaw – CHC, 3B, 22.8 – He hasn’t blown the doors off at Double-A, but he’s proving his big 2023 pro debut was no fluke with 6 homers, 15 steals, and a 21.4%/14.4% K%/BB% in 54 games at Double-A.

9) (4) (25) Emmanuel Rodriguez – MIN, OF, 21.3 – There are a lot of really good prospects not putting up eye popping numbers at Double-A, but Baby Bonds isn’t one of them with a 199 wRC+ in 37 games. In OBP leagues, there is a case for him to be the #1 hitting prospect in the game with a 25.1% BB%

10) (9) (10) Dylan Crews – WAS, OF, 22.2 – The disaster start is behind him, but this still isn’t the light the world on fire bat we hoped we would be getting

11) (11) (27) Samuel Basallo – BAL, C/1B, 19.10 – 1.099 OPS in his last 20 games. Looks like Basallo has figured out the upper minors, and he’s still 19 years old

12) (10) (14) Roman Anthony – BOS, OF, 20.1 – A 138 wRC+ as a barely 20 year old at Double-A is impressive even if the numbers aren’t off the charts

13) (6) (15) Jackson Jobe – DET, RHP, 21.9 – He was just getting back to his dominant self in his last 3 outings with a 16/3 K/BB in 11 IP at Double-A, but a hamstring strain landed him on the IL since May 1st

14) (18) (64) Noah Schultz – CHW, LHP, 20.9 – Insane dominance has transferred to the upper minors with a 0.77 ERA and 35%/0% K%/BB% in 11.2 IP. There is little doubt that this guy is going to be an ace if he stays healthy

15) (15) (58) Carson Williams – TBR, SS, 20.11 – 27.9% K% shows there is still hit tool risk, but as a 20 year old in the upper minors, that actually isn’t too bad, and he’s dominating regardless with a 161 wRC+. Tack on a plus SS glove which should give him a long leash, and this is a no doubt elite prospect

16) (NA) (13) Pete Crow-Armstrong – CHC, OF, 22.2 – PCA is locking in that his speed and baserunning ability are truly elite with a 30 ft/sec sprint and a perfect 7 for 7 mark on the bases, and he’s also showing much better contact rates than his first go around with a 23% K%, but he’s yet to prove he can hit the ball hard enough to truly make an impact with a 86.7 MPH EV. It sat 87.9 MPH with a 110.6 MPH MAX at Triple-A, so there is more in the tank right now, and I definitely think there is more in the tank in the future. I’m not moving off PCA

17) (7) (23) Coby Mayo – BAL, 1B/3B, 22.6 – Out since May 16th with a fractured rib. He’s on a beeline to be on the best power hitters in the game when he gets healthy again

18) (24) (48) Marcelo Mayer – BOS, SS, 21.8 – Here is what I wrote about Mayer this off-season in his Top 1,000 blurb: “Mayer feels like he’s getting a bit of the treatment Noelvi Marte got last year. He was on a beeline for elite prospect status until there was an abrupt, general cooling on him throughout the industry, but like with Marte, I’m not sure it’s warranted.” … and like Marte, he came out swinging the next season, slashing .300/.370/.486 with 6 homers, 12 steals, and a 20.2%/9.7% K%/BB% in 54 games at Double-A . Hopefully unlike Marte, he isn’t on PED’s

19) (32) (41) Xavier Isaac – TBR, 1B, 20.6 – 27.6 K% in 51 games at High-A means we have to recalibrate his hit tool expectations a bit, but on the flip side, we can do the same about his stolen base expectations with 13 steals. And the power is unquestioned with 12 homers

20) (5) (18) Spencer Jones – NYY, OF, 23.1 – He might finally be finding his groove at Double-A with 4 homers, 2 steals, and a 1.052 OPS in his last 9 games, although it still comes with a 12/2 K/BB. I’m going to keep betting on the huge talent, even if the hit tool isn’t where it needs to be right now with a 34.1% K%

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
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-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAY MAILBAG! (5/30/24)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Top 500 MLB Prospects Rankings for 2024 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues (Patreon)

It’s Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings Week over on the Patreon, and we kick it off today with the Top 500 MLB Prospects Rankings for 2024 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues (I actually go 582 deep). The Top 40 are free here on the Brick Wall. Analysis and Prime Projections for every player. The Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings will drop on Wednesday, and these lists will be released here on Imaginary Brick Wall in late March. Here is the Top 500 MLB Prospects Rankings for 2024 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues (Patreon):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON & SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 1,000 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
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-TOP 132 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (+Target & Strategy Guide)
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-ALL-IN-ONE RANKINGS SPREADSHEET COMING SOON
-DYNASTY TEAM REPORTS FOR EVERY TEAM (Top 10+ Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)
-UPCOMING: Position by Position Target Series, Top 600 OBP Rankings, Top 600 Points/6+Cats/OPS “Universal” Rankings, Predicting the 2024 Top 50 Prospects Rankings that doubles as a Bold Predictions article, and much more

1) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 20.1 – Baseball now uses minor leaguers like guinea pigs, testing out every hairbrained idea they have all willy nilly, and Chourio got caught in the crosshairs of it. The Southern League used a pre-tacked ball for the first half of the season, and Chourio put up a lowly .714 OPS in 71 games. When they went back to the regular ball, he immediately went gangbusters, slashing .324/.379/.538 with 11 homers, 21 steals, and a 13.4%/8.0% K%/BB% in 57 games. He closed out the season at Triple-A where he put up a 4.2%/8.3% K%/BB% in 6 games. He did all of this as a 19 year old. The power/speed combo is plus to double plus, and it sure looks like his contact rates are entering the elite range if you ignore what he did in the 1st half. Jackson Holliday seems to be the consensus #1 prospect in the game (and Wyatt Langford is the trendy #1 for fantasy), but if Chourio hit with the regular ball all season, I’m not so sure that would be the case. The main thing Holliday has over Chourio right now is plate approach, which makes him the safer prospect, but for fantasy, I gotta give the ever so slight edge to the power/speed combo. Milwaukee showed us they are all in by signing him to an 8 year, $82 million contract. It makes it much more likely that he will break camp with the team, and even if doesn’t, it won’t be long until he’s up for good. Chourio is my #1 fantasy prospect. 2024 Projection: 69/21/75/.258/.320/.469/25 Prime Projection: 101/32/104/.283/.353/.523/41

2) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 20.4 – Holliday’s power/speed combo really wasn’t that huge with only 12 homers and 24 steals (in 33 attempts) in 125 games spread across 4 levels (A, A+, AA, AAA). It dropped off even further in the upper minors with 5 homers and 4 steals in 54 games. It seems crazy to start his blurb off with criticism, but when the battle for the top prospect in the game is so close, it needs to be highlighted. Now that we got that out of the way, Holliday had an absolutely insane season where he slashed .323/.442/.499 with a 20.3%/17.4% K%/BB%. He was in high school last year, and he displayed one of the most advanced plate approaches of any prospect all the way through Triple-A. This is why everyone drools over kids with baseball bloodlines, they tend to be far advanced beyond their years. As I mentioned, the power isn’t fully developed yet with relatively low flyball rates, but he hits the ball hard with a 30.2% Hard Hit% and a 90.9 MPH EV in 40 batted balls at Triple-A, so I’m not concerned about the power long term. He has the safety edge over Chourio, but it’s not like Chourio is a risky prospect, so Holliday slots in at #2 for me. 2024 Projection: 78/16/71/.270/.339/.441/20 Prime Projection: 117/27/94/.296/.382/.506/28

3) Wyatt Langford TEX, OF, 22.5 – I have Chourio, Holliday, and Langford in a tier of their own. The only reason Langford is 3rd is because Chourio/Holliday have a longer professional track record and more impressive age to level production. But his power, speed, hit tool, plate approach, and production can rival anyone’s. He was selected 4th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft on the back of elite production in the SEC, slashing .373/.498/.784 with 21 homers, 9 steals, and a 44/56 K/BB in 64 games. He clearly separated himself from Dylan Crews in his pro debut, slashing .360/.480/.677 with 10 homers, 12 steals, and a 17.0%/18.0% K%/BB% in 44 games, and he was equally as dominant in the upper minors as he was the lower minors. He’s the total package, and if you wanted to rank him 1st overall, I wouldn’t argue with you. 2024 Projection: 81/26/77/.262/.338/.479/18 Prime Projection: 103/34/109/.277/.364/.535/24

4) Junior Caminero TBR, 3B/SS, 20.9 – Caminero was a popular breakout pick this year (me included), and he more than lived up to the consensus hype by going full phenom beast mode. He made a mockery of High-A pitching with 11 homers and a 190 wRC+ in 36 games, and then he barely slowed down at Double-A with 20 homers and a 140 wRC+ in 81 games. He even improved his plate approach at Double-A with a 17.1%/9.1% K%/BB% (25.2%/6.3% at High-A). He completed the phenom cycle by jumping straight from Double-A to the majors as a 20 year old for a cup of coffee (he ordered the cold brew with a .631 OPS in 36 PA, but it obviously doesn’t mean much). His calling card is double plus power with a good feel to hit that reminds me of a righty version of Rafael Devers. And while he didn’t run a ton (5 for 10 on the bases), he put up a 28.6 ft/sec sprint speed in the majors, so he’ll certainly contribute in the category at the least. Tampa Bay is forever crowded, but a player like Caminero forces the issue. 2024 Projection: 57/20/64/.260/.323/.462/6 Prime Projection: 96/35/109/.284/.349/.525/10

5) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 21.7 – The only question is how much power will Carter get to, because the plate approach and speed are impregnable at this point. He’s a line drive hitter who didn’t exactly smash the ball in the minors, although a 89/95.8 MPH AVG/FB EV in his 75 PA MLB debut shows he’s not some light hitting weakling. He’s also 6’4”, 190 pounds and only 21 years old, so more raw power is certainly coming. He hit 12 homers in 105 games at mostly Double-A (133 wRC+), then he set the baseball world on fire by hitting 5 homers in his first 23 games in the majors (180 wRC+), and finally he closed out the year with 1 homer in 17 playoff games (155 wRC+). That’s 18 homers in 145 games. If he can just get to about 25 homers in his prime, the man is going to be a terror. The speed is double plus with a 29.5 ft/sec sprint speed (31 steals overall), and the plate approach is elite. He had a 9% chase% in his MLB debut and he’s been an elite plate approach guy his entire career in the minors. He struggles vs. lefties, but just like with Gunnar Henderson last year, I wouldn’t let that scare you off an elite prospect. The downside is a .260 hitter with 15 homers and 25 steals, which isn’t that bad, and the upside is a .280/25/35 guy. 2024 Projection: 87/18/72/.263/.334/.429/26 Prime Projection: 105/24/80/.278/.367/.468/31

6) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 21.8 – I would completely ignore what Lawlar did in his super small sample, 34 PA MLB debut. Don’t even look at his Statcast page, it will only get in your head. Your focus should be on the pitchers he laid waste to in the upper minors. He slashed .278/.378/.496 with 20 homers, 36 steals, and a 20.6%/11.4% K%/BB% in 105 games at Double-A and Triple-A. His contact rates took a big step forward from 2022, he has truly elite speed with a 30.1 ft/sec sprint speed, and he hit the ball fairly hard, especially for a 20 year old, with a 31.8% Hard Hit%. He’s 6’2”, 190 pounds with room to add more muscle, so the power is only going up from here. He has legitimate Top 10 dynasty asset potential. 2024 Projection: 69/14/55/.248/.317/.410/25 Prime Projection: 103/24/84/.273/.351/.470/38

7) Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD, RHP, 25.7 – When it comes to potentially elite, all category hitting prospects, you have to pry them from my dead cold hands, which is why I would struggle to give up any of the hitting prospects ranked above for Yamamoto (or even the few ranked after him depending on my team build). In fantasy, pitchers can’t contribute in every pitching category (saves at least, and some leagues have both saves and holds), so that right there limits their upside relative to an elite hitter. Not to mention the much much much higher injury risk which can knock out 2 years of their career off a single injury, and then the stress of whether or not they will get back to 100%. On a real life list, I can see ranking Yamamoto 1st overall, but for fantasy, it’s just not how I play the game, even for a pitcher that is expected to be as good as Yamamoto. The Dodgers made him the highest paid pitcher in history with a 12 year, $325 million contract (plus a $50 million posting fee). That is really all you need to know. He’s expected to be a true ace right from the get go, and signing with the best developmental team in the game also takes a lot of the risk out of his transition to a new ball, new country, new league etc … He’s been a true ace in Japan for years now, and that continued this year with a pitching line of 1.16/0.86/176/28 in 171 IP. He pitched 193 innings in both 2021 and 2022, so there also isn’t any concern of how many innings he can pitch. The fastball sits mid 90’s and regularly hits the upper 90’s. A nasty splitter is his most used secondary, and he also throws a very good curve, 2-seamer, and cutter. He has elite command over all of his pitches, and he has an unique, oddly athletic delivery which he varies constantly to mess with hitters timing. He’s a straight up nightmare to face, and looks like a ready made ace. 2024 Projection: 14/3.42/1.11/195 in 180 IP

8) Noelvi Marte CIN, 3B, 22.6 – Everyone called Marte fat and slow this off-season, so of course he put up double plus run times in the majors with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed. Be super wary of scouting speed grades as they are wildly inaccurate (see also, Henry Davis and Nolan Jones). Not only is he a speedster, but he crushed the ball with a 91.3 MPH EV, and the hit tool looked good with a 20.3% K% and .296 xBA in 123 MLB PA. It all resulted in a slash line of .316/.366/.456 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 20.3%/6.5% K%/BB%. He showed those same skills in the upper minors with 11 homers, 18 steals, and a .279 BA in 92 games. He did all of this as a 21-year-old. He’s fast, he hits it hard, he gets the bat on the ball, he produced in the upper minors, he produced in the majors, and he was super young. Quite simply, this is an elite fantasy prospect, and I’m not sure he gets the respect he deserves. 2024 Projection: 77/19/73/.261/.322/.431/22 Prime Projection: 96/27/91/.276/.354/.491/25

9) Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 22.1 – Starting this blurb with anything other than the 73 wRC+ and 0 homers Crews put up in 85 PA at Double-A would be beating around the bush, and you know me, I don’t beat around the bush. The performance was bad enough to have Wyatt Langford clearly pass him for the top spot in my Top 130 2024 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (Wyatt’s dominance also had something to do with that), and also for me to prefer the newly minted highest paid pitcher in baseball history (Yamamoto), but that is where it ends. 85 PA isn’t enough to sour me on the 2nd overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. Crews is built like a solid rock at 6’0”, 203 pounds, and he swings the bat so fast and powerfully it almost looks like he’s using an illegally light bat (he’s not, at least I don’t think he is ha). The ball explodes off it on contact. He obliterated the SEC from the second he stepped on campus as a freshman, and he kept on improving through his junior year, slashing .380/.498/.689 with 58 homers, 23 steals, and a 146/152 K/BB in 196 career games. He also destroyed the lower minors with a 192 wRC+ in 71 PA at Single-A. His floor feels like a 30+ homer bat without the best BA or tons of steals, but the ceiling is that of a truly elite dynasty player. 2024 Projection: 62/20/71/.257/.329/.473/12 Prime Projection: 94/32/103/.274/.361/.518/16

10) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 21.2 – The backlash to Dominguez’ early career hype made it hard to hold the line, but I remained all in on Dominguez last off-season, ranking him 10th overall, and he more than delivered on that ranking this year. He hit 15 homers with 37 steals and a 25.6%/15.2% K%/BB% in 109 games at Double-A as a 20 year old. Then he quickly ran through Triple-A with a 180 wRC+ in 9 games, before finishing out his season with 4 homers and a 162 wRC+ in 8 games in the majors. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery put a halt to what was sure to be insane hype this off-season, but I wouldn’t let the Tommy John surgery scare you off. It isn’t as big of a deal for hitters as it is for pitchers, and he’s expected to return by the 2nd half of 2024. His extremely good MLB debut will likely make it hard to get good value for him this off-season even with the surgery, so my move would be to hope he needs to shake off some rust when he returns next season to bring his value into a more reasonable range again. 2024 Projection: 30/8/26/.242/.324/.438/10 Prime Projection: 92/26/86/.266/.361/.485/28

11) James Wood WAS, OF, 21.7 – The K% jumped to 33.7% in 87 games at Double-A, which is exactly what you are worried about with a player this tall (6’6”), but Wood is the type of unicorn athlete where you don’t want to let it scare you off him. He still cracked 18 homers with 10 steals and a 124 wRC+ at the level as a 20 year old. And that was coming off a 155 wRC+ in 42 games at the more age appropriate High-A. Despite his size and high strikeout rate, Wood has a relatively short and quick swing which gives hope he’ll be able to keep the strikeout rate in a range that allows his truly elite talent shine. Don’t expect a high BA, but expect him to kill it everywhere else. 2024 Projection: 45/17/51/.229/.308/.450/13 Prime Projection: 91/30/99/.253/.341/.508/18

12) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 22.0 – I’ve been all in on Pete Crow since before he was drafted, and he finally fulfilled his elite prospect destiny in 2023. The power took yet another step forward with him jacking 20 homers in 107 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s not an EV masher, but he doesn’t hit the ball weakly either, and his high launch will ensure he gets the most out of his still growing raw power. The CF defense and speed are elite with a 29.9 ft/sec sprint speed and 37 steals. There is bit more swing and miss than optimal with a 26% K%, but he’s always generally had a good feel to hit, and he’s never had low BA’s in the minors, so I’m not overly concerned about it. Armstrong has 20/40 written all over him. 2024 Projection: 41/9/29/.241/.310/.407/19 Prime Projection: 91/22/76/.257/.334/.439/34

13) Walker Jenkins MIN, OF, 19.1 – Selected 5th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, the 6’3”, 215 pounds Jenkins has that sweet lefty swing that just oozes offensive potential. It’s athletic, quick, under control, powerful, smooth … I can go on and on. It’s hard to watch this guy hit and not completely fall in love. It has the potential for at least plus hit and plus power at peak, and he’s also a good athlete with above average run times. But we don’t have to only dream on the potential, as Jenkins’ showed it to us clear as day in his pro debut, slashing .362/.417/.571 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 12.2%/7.8% K%/BB% in 26 games split evenly between rookie ball (138 wRC+) and Single-A (182 wRC+). It’s the type of profile that can be an elite dynasty asset a la Kyle Tucker. Langford, Crews, and Yamamoto are locked in as my top 3 FYPD picks, and while there are good arguments for Skenes or even Matt Shaw at #4, I don’t think I can pass up on the truly “generational” (or maybe nearly generational would be more accurate ha) upside of Jenkins. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 94/31/102/.273/.345/.510/16

14) Roman Anthony BOS, OF, 19.11 – I ended Anthony’s 2023 Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “There is a lot of refinement needed, but this is a high upside bat who could explode up rankings if everything comes together.” … well, everything came together and Anthony exploded up rankings, slashing .272/.403/.466 with 14 homers, 16 steals, and a 24.2%/17.5% K%/BB% in 106 games at mostly Single-A (109 wRC+) and High-A (164 wRC+). It was a little concerning that the K% jumped to 30.6% at High-A, but then he closed out the season at Double-A and had a 185 wRC+ with a 13.6%/18.2% K%/BB% in 10 games. And he did all this starting the season as an 18 year old. He’s an elite athlete at 6’2”, 200 pounds with a plus power/speed combo, powerful lefty swing, and a mature plate approach. The only things preventing him from being ranked even higher is that he’s not great at lifting the ball with an under 25% Flyball%, and he wasn’t a great base stealer with 16 steals in 23 attempts. He hits the ball so hard he can survive without a huge launch, and he has time to refine his base stealing skills as well, so neither are major concerns. He’s on a short list to be the #1 overall fantasy prospect in baseball by this time next year. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 96/25/88/.273/.358/.472/16

15) Jackson Jobe DET, RHP, 21.9 – Jobe made his season debut in mid June from lumber spine inflammation, which obviously sounded worse than it really was, because he immediately looked like the best pitching prospect in baseball when he returned. He had a 2.81 ERA with a 32.6%/2.3% K%/BB% in 64 IP at mostly High-A. He closed the season out with a gem at Double-A, going 6 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER, and a 6/0 K/BB, and then he went to the AFL and dominated in that extreme hitter’s environment with a 2.87 ERA and 19/5 K/BB in 15.2 IP. He looks absolutely electric on the mound at 6’2”, 190 pounds with an athletic delivery and a double plus 4 pitch mix. He was known for his high spin slider coming into the draft, and the pitch is so filthy it almost doesn’t look real. His changeup dominated as well with nasty tailing diving action, the fastball sits mid 90’s with excellent movement, and the cutter is a high spin pitch that misses bats. And he does all of this with pinpoint control. He still has to prove it in the upper minors, which I’m not too concerned about, and he has to prove he can stay healthy and maintain his stuff with a full MLB starters workload, which is more concerning, but that’s just the pitching prospect game. He’s my #1 pitching prospect in baseball, non Yoshinobu Yamamoto division. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 15/3.18/1.03/220 in 180 IP

16) Paul Skenes PIT, RHP, 21.10 – Selected 1st overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Skenes’ season was nothing short of jaw dropping with a pitching line of 1.69/0.75/209/20 in 122.2 IP in the SEC. His fastball sits in the upper 90’s and routinely hits over 100 MPH. His slider is elite, and while he didn’t go to his changeup as much, that pitch is also nasty. He also displayed plus control of his entire arsenal. He’s 6’6”, 235 pounds with a relatively athletic delivery and he’s a good athlete in general as evidenced by the fact he is also an excellent hitter. He had a career 1.121 OPS in 119 games in the Mountain West before transferring into the SEC. There were some whispers about poor fastball shape in his 6.2 IP pro debut, but I wouldn’t let that sour you on a generational type pitching prospect. He’ll still be just 21 years old on Opening Day, so plenty of refinement, tinkering, new pitches etc … are coming down the road. 2024 Projection: 8/3.80/1.27/133 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.28/1.06/237 in 190 IP

17) Matt Shaw CHC, 2B/SS, 22.5 – Selected 13th overall, Shaw is only 5’11”, but he’s a thick dude who has real power, and he combines that with above average speed and excellent base stealing skills. He has that little man leg kick (which Chicago toned down a hair in pro ball) that I absolutely love in the mold of a Alex Bregman, Spencer Steer, and Zach Neto. It seems to be working for these slightly undersized guys, and it’s certainly working for Shaw. He smashed 24 homers with 18 steals and a 1.142 OPS in 62 Big Ten games. He also impressed in the wood bat Cape Cod League with 5 homers, 21 steals, and a 1.006 OPS in 36 games. He then ran through pro ball like it was nothing, finishing the year at Double-A slashing .292/.329/.523 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 17.1%/4.3% K%/BB% in 15 games at the level. Shaw was my top draft target pre-draft (I actually pointed out Shaw as my top target back in February before the season even started), but now that he absolutely blew up in pro ball, there is no chance you get great value on him. He’s worth his very high draft price though. 2024 Projection: 36/10/43/.253/.312/.432/11 Prime Projection: 85/25/89/.271/.337/.469/21

18) Ricky Tiedemann TOR, LHP, 21.7 – Tiedemann’s dominance in the AFL quieted some of the risk that was growing after an injured and mixed bag season in 2023. He had a 2.50 ERA with a 23/8 K/BB in 18 IP. He went 5 IP in 3 of the 4 starts after not reaching 5 IP the entire season. The stuff is elite with a mid 90’s fastball and two plus secondaries in his slider and changeup. He also looks the part at 6’4”, 220 pounds with an almost sidearm lefty delivery. If he stays healthy and throws the ball over the plate, he’ll be an easy ace, but those are the two areas that can trip him up. He pitched only 62 innings all year, including the AFL, because of a biceps injury that kept him out for almost 3 months. It will probably take 3 years to truly build up his innings fully, and we all know the injury risk with young flamethrowers like this. His 12% BB% is also nearing the danger zone where inconsistency can end up a part of the profile. The profile isn’t without risk, but when dealing in upside prospect flamethrowers, that is just the game. He’s an elite pitching prospect. 2024 Projection: 5/3.81/1.31/111 in 100 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.38/1.19/213 in 170 IP

19) Parker Meadows DET, OF, 24.5 – I know this ranking seems high, but Meadows is looking mighty similar to my Nolan Jones and Zack Gelof buy calls from mid-season, and if you look at redraft and dynasty rankings this off-season, those guys now get valued in the range that elite prospects get ranked, or even higher. Meadows has the potential to make that same jump from afterthought prospect to highly valued dynasty asset, and you should get in this off-season before it happens. He has a very fantasy friendly skillset with the build and athleticism to back it up, but he always got vastly underrated on prospect lists. And unlike Jones and Gelof who have played far too well to still be underrated this off-season, Meadows is setting up to be in perfect buy territory with a .699 OPS in 37 games. He had a 89.3 MPH EV, 18.3 degree launch, 29 ft/sec sprint, 24% whiff%, and 11.7% BB%. And to top it all off, his at least above average CF defense should keep him in the lineup. That is a recipe for tons of fantasy goodness, and you might be able to acquire him for barely anything this off-season. His 293 NFBC ADP shows his perceived value to fantasy upside could be as wide as anyone’s right now. He’s a major target. 2024 Projection: 79/23/76/.248/.328/.432/24

20) Colt Keith DET, 3B/2B, 22.8 – Keith more than hinted at a big breakout in 2022 with a 150 wRC+ in 48 games at High-A, but a shoulder injury cut the explosion short, and even though he made it back to dominate the AFL (1.004 OPS in 19 games), the hype was still relatively subdued last off-season. Well, the explosion continued right into 2023, and this time he did it in the upper minors with a 163 wRC+ and 14 homers in 59 games at Double-A, followed up by a 119 wRC+ and 13 homers in 67 games at Triple-A. He hits the ball very hard, he has a mature plate approach, and the hit tool is at least above average. He’s one of the most complete prospect hitters in the game, and while I already assumed he was going to break camp with the team, it’s now a foregone conclusion with him signing a guarantied 6 year extension with the club.. 2024 Projection: 74/24/81/.258/.329/.445/2 Prime Projection: 89/29/92/.276/.352/.480/3

21) Coby Mayo BAL, 1B/3B, 22.4 – My boldest prediction in last off-season’s Predicting the 2024 Top 50 Prospects Rankings was that Coby Mayo would explode to a Top 10 prospect, predicting that “Mayo will follow in Gunnar Henderson’s footsteps with an off the charts type season in the upper minors. He’ll put up a 150 wRC+ at Double-A and a 130 wRC+ at Triple-A. The K% will be under 25%, the power will be huge, and there will be some surprising speed too.” … Mayo put up a 178 wRC+ in 78 games at Double-A and a 127 wRC+ in 62 games at Triple-A. The power was huge with 29 homers in 140 games, and the K% was under 25% at 24.1%. I don’t think I could have nailed that more even if I was actually able to see into the future. The surprising speed didn’t really show up with only 5 steals, but better than nothing. The 6’5”, 230 pound Mayo is now a truly elite power hitting prospect, just as I expected. 2024 Projection: 31/11/35/.242/.319/.455/2 Prime Projection: 86/34/99/.265/.346/.535/6

22) Jackson Merrill SDP, SS, 20.11 – Merrill did everything you could have asked of him in 2023. Most importantly, he brought his GB% way down from 59.6% at Single-A to 48.6% at High-A and 33.5% at Double-A. It resulted in 15 homers in 114 total games. His already strong contact rates got even better with a 12.1% K%, and he proved all of his skills will transfer to the upper minors, slashing .273/.338/.444 with 5 homers, 5 steals, and a 11.8%/8.5% K%/BB% in 46 games at Double-A. I’m still not seeing a monster power/speed combo, which is why I wasn’t the highest guy on him last off-season, but a few seasons of .300/20/20 doesn’t seem like that much of a reach. 2024 Projection: 13/2/9/.256/.307/.408/3 Prime Projection: 84/20/81/.283/.338/.451/17

23) Chase DeLauter CLE, OF, 22.6 – A broken foot delayed the start of DeLauter’s pro career until June of this year, but he quickly answered every question you could have had about him in resounding fashion. He didn’t play in the toughest college conference (Coloniel Athletic Association), so seeing his hit tool and advanced plate approach completely transfer to pro ball is huge. He put up a 12.5%/5.7% K%/BB% in 42 games at High-A (164 wRC+), a 10.7%/17.9% K%/BB% in 6 games at Double-A (149 wRC+), and a 10.1%/12.8% K%/BB% in 23 games in the AFL. For a man with his type of talent at 6’4”, 235 pounds, that is incredibly exciting. He hit only 5 homers in 57 regular season games, but he doesn’t have any major groundball issues, he has plus raw power, and he’s hit 5 homers in 23 AFL games. The power is there. He also didn’t run a ton with 6 steals, but keep in mind he was coming off the foot injury, and he nabbed 5 bags in the AFL. With a full healthy season in 2024, it’s almost inevitable that he will be in consideration for Top 10 overall prospect status real quick. 2024 Projection: 28/6/24/.257/.319/.426/7 Prime Projection: 88/25/86/.274/.343/.472/17

24) Emmanuel Rodriguez MIN, OF, 21.1 – Baby Bonds scared us all for a minute there with a .677 OPS in his first 27 games at High-A coming off a season ending meniscus tear in 2022, but he was back to his dominant self after that with a .927 OPS, 14 homers, 18 steals, and a 27.3%/20.7% K%/BB% in his final 78 games. He finished the season with a stupendous 145 wRC+ in 99 games. He has at least plus power, the ability to lift the ball, speed, and elite on base skills. The only concern is the hit tool, but some of those issues are surely due to his extreme patience. This is truly elite dynasty upside, especially in an OBP league or 6+ cat league, and I think he’s still on the underrated side. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 94/29/89/.252/.361/.490/18

25) Ethan Salas SDP, C, 17.10 – At this point, I wouldn’t even be surprised if Ethan Salas broke camp with the big league club this spring 😉 (I think I’m just joking) … San Diego flew him through the minors at absolutely unprecedented rates. He made his pro debut at Single-A as a fucking 16 year old!!! Is that even legal? And the even crazier thing is that he dominated with a 122 wRC+, 9 homers, 5 steals, and a 25.9%/10.9% K%/BB% in 48 games. SD then got a little too nutty by promoting him all the way up to Double-A to close out the season where he struggled with a 51 wRC+ in 9 games. He struggled at High-A before that too with a 35 wRC+ in 9 games. Regardless, what Salas did at Single-A for his age is truly mind blowing, and I hesitate to put a cap on what his ultimate upside could be. It might be crazy to say his ceiling is one of the greatest catchers of all time, but with how crazy San Diego handled him this year, let’s just all jump aboard the crazy train. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 84/29/92/.278/.362/.505/10

26) Samuel Basallo BAL, C/1B, 19.8 – The biggest issue with Basallo has nothing to do with him. It’s that Adley isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. And with Baltimore trying to build a Tampa Bay North situation, I don’t think they are going to feel pressured to trade him either. His bat will profile just fine at 1B, but now we’re talking about competition with Coby Mayo and possibly Heston Kjerstad too. Maybe I’m just borrowing trouble a bit too much, because Basallo looks like he has a special bat. He’s a built up 6’3” with a treacherous lefty swing that is made to do damage, slashing .313/.404/.551 with 20 homers, 12 steals, and a 94/61 K/BB in 114 games at mostly Single-A and High-A. Four of those games came at Double-A where he put up a 220 wRC+. He’s a complete hitter with power, contact, and patience. And he did all of that as an 18 year old for most of the season. If defense wasn’t a slight issue (he’s not a particularly good defensive catcher either), I would likely be even higher on him, but he has the type of bat where maybe you should just completely ignore it. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 84/32/95/.272/.354/.517/5

27) Max Clark DET, OF, 19.4 –  Clark is the 2023 draft version of Pete Crow Armstrong and Corbin Carroll, two guys who I was the high man on in their first year player draft class, although Clark actually got the respect he deserved by getting selected 3rd overall. Maybe the success of those aforementioned players paved the way for a guy like Clark to get valued correctly. As you can tell from the comps, double plus speed with a plus hit tool and developing power is what you are buying. He’s a pretty thick and muscular 6’1”, 190 pounds, so I don’t think you have to squint too hard to see legitimate power developing down the line, even if he’s more a line drive hitter currently. After dominating rookie ball with a 146 wRC+ in 12 games, he got slowed down a bit at Single-A with a 73 wRC+ and 29.4% K% in 11 games, but he still had a .353 OBP, so it’s not like he was completely overmatched or anything. 5×5 BA leagues are going to be his bread and butter, but like Carroll, he can be a beast regardless of league type. He has elite dynasty asset upside. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 93/18/72/.278/.347/.433/33

28) Jett Williams NYM, SS, 20.4 – Jett Williams got much thicker in all the right places in 2023, and that extra muscle paid dividends with him cracking 14 homers in 125 games split between Single-A (79 games), High-A (36 games), and Double-A (10 games). 9 of those homers came in his final 47 games. He combines the uptick in power with elite speed (45 steals), and an excellent plate approach (22.1%/19.5% K%/BB%). If he wasn’t 5’6”, he might be a consensus elite prospect already. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 93/20/77/.274/.350/.445/38

29) Cade Horton CHC, RHP, 22.7 – Horton was a star quarterback in high school, and his pithing delivery very much looks like he’s throwing a football with a short arm action thrown from around his ear. That type of arm action tends to produce good spin rates, and Horton can mostly certainly spin a potentially double slider that falls completely off the table. The plus fastball has good movement too and sits mid 90’s. He also mixes in a changeup and curveball that have above average potential. He used that plus stuff to obliterate pro ball in his debut with a 2.65 ERA and 33.5%/7.7% K%/BB% in 88.1 IP split between 3 levels (A, A+, AA). The K/BB numbers dropped a bit when he got to Double-A with a 28.4%/10.1% K%/BB% in 27 IP, but he still crushed the level with a 1.33 ERA. He only averaged around 4 inning outings and Chicago was very careful with him in general as this was truly his first fully healthy season coming off Tommy John surgery in 2021. He still has to prove he can handle a full MLB starter’s workload while maintaining his stuff and staying healthy, but he’s on the right track to doing that. I would put high end #2 starter upside on him. 2024 Projection: 2/3.95/1.31/42 in 40 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.48/1.17/178 in 160 IP

30) Shane Baz TBR, RHP, 24.9 – Baz underwent Tommy John surgery in late September 2022, so he should be fully healthy for 2024 assuming he has no setbacks. If you’re going to take the Tommy John discount on pithing prospects, make sure they are elite ones, and Baz is most certainly an elite one. When healthy, he throws 3 potentially double plus pitches in his mid to upper 90’s fastball, slider, and curve, to go along with a developing lesser used changeup. He struggled with control earlier in his pro career, but he improved it to about average levels in 2021 and 2022. That level of stuff with average control screams ace upside. I do think you have to at least take into account the added risk from major elbow surgery, and keep in mind he has a career high of 92 IP, so it might take 3 years before he can truly throw a full top of the rotation workload, assuming he’s actually physically able to do it, but I also understand if you want to ignore all of it for his insane upside. 2024 Projection: 7/3.76/1.19/110 in 100 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.38/1.11/190 in 160 IP

31) Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 22.11 – Strikeouts are the only thing we have to worry about with the uber talented 6’6”, 235 pound beast, which is why his 28.2% K% in 78 PA at Double-A is actually encouraging. That number could have easily skyrocketed against more advanced pitching after putting up a 29% K% in 100 games at High-A. Jones can live in the upper 20’s and still thrive due do his double plus power/speed combo. He hit 16 homers and stole 38 bags in 117 games. His groundball rates are on the high side, but with how hard he hits the ball, it might actually be a good thing to ensure his batting average doesn’t tank too low. It’s more or less the Elly De La Cruz package, and just like I’m buying Elly, I’m buying Jones too. 2024 Projection: 27/7/23/.217/.283/.411/8 Prime Projection: 76/23/82/.241/.318/.465/26

32) Termarr Johnson PIT, 2B, 19.10 – Just call me Prospectdamus, because I nailed Johnson’s 2023 season in my Predicting the 2024 Top 50 Prospects Rankings back in February, writing, “Johnson’s hit tool at Single-A won’t be as good as the hype with an over 20% K% and under .280 BA. The power/speed numbers will be good though, and he’ll still destroy the level with a 130 wRC+.” … Johnson’s K% was over 20% at 26.7% and his BA was under .280 at .244, but he still destroyed the level with a 141 wRC+, 13 homers and 7 steals in 75 games. He put up almost identical numbers at High-A too with a 142 wRC+ in 30 games. He hits the ball hard, he has a very mature plate approach, and he has some speed. He didn’t hit his ceiling projection, but I would say he still lived up to the hype. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 93/25/82/.264/.351/.478/15

33) Ronny Mauricio NYM, 2B, 23.0 – Mauricio tore his ACL and will underwent surgery after a non contact injury on the bases in Winter Ball. It’s deju vu all over again with Edwin Diaz tearing his knee in the WBC last off-season. It’s getting so sad for Mets fans that I don’t even want to crack a joke about it. I just feel bad. Mauricio was a major target for me this off-season, so it’s just a major bummer all around. He’ll likely miss the entire 2024 season, and even if he doesn’t, you can’t count on him for anything at the MLB level. He also wasn’t a burner, so even a small drop in speed isn’t great. I still like him. but he’s no longer a real target for me. Here was my write-up for him prior to going down with the injury, just so we can remember the good times: “I named Mauricio one of my top targets in the Top 10 Early Off-Season Dynasty Baseball Target article on Patreon. Mainstream prospects lists have been slowly sliding him down the rankings the closer he’s gotten to the majors, but I’ve done the exact opposite on my lists. He crushes the ball with a 117.3 MPH Max EV that was the 10th hardest hit ball all season. He had a 90.7 MPH AVG EV in 108 MLB PA (91.1 MPH at AAA). He loves to run with 7 MLB steals and 24 AAA steals, and his speed gets underrated with an above average 27.7 ft/sec sprint. He’s never had any major contact issues and he most certainly looks the part at 6’3” with a vicious swing. He doesn’t have a good plate approach with low walk rates, but keep in mind he’s always been very young for his level, and his 6.6% BB% at Triple-A (6.5% BB% in the majors) was a career high, so I wouldn’t bet against future improvement there either. His mediocre ranking on prospects and mediocre .643 OPS in the majors should create a very nice buy opportunity this off-season.” 2024 Projection: OUT Prime Projection: 78/24/83/.267/.325/.461/18

34) Sebastian Walcott TEX, SS, 18.1 – I know that nobody really cares/remembers who was “first” on a player. And being “first” on a player is a nebulous concept anyway as I guess the person who was really the first was the one to identify him when he was like an 8 year old probably. And saying you were “first” on a player who signed for $3.2 million might seem like a stretch in hindsight … but having said all that, I was first on Walcott 😉 …. his extremely elite athleticism at 6’4”, 190 pounds jumped off the screen in every video I watched of him last off-season before he was getting even a whisper of real dynasty hype. If you were a Patreon subscriber last off-season, I told you to target this kid in every first year player draft. His hype picked up in a major way later in the off-season, and I ain’t even mad at it, because he deserved the love. Texas knew they had a special kid on their hands too, promoting him to stateside rookie ball after just 9 games in the DSL, and he thrived, slashing .273/.325/.524 with 7 homers, 9 steals, and a 32.5%/6.4% K%/BB% in 35 games. The contact rates and plate approach were rough enough to assume that will be an area of his game he needs to work on, but they weren’t so bad considering his age to let it scare you off him. I’m all in on Walcott. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 84/32/92/.257/.328/.491/23

35) Druw Jones ARI, OF, 20.4 – I think we’ve all been spoiled by how many players came back with little to no rust from major shoulder surgery (Carroll, Lawler, Jung), and unfortunately, that wasn’t the case for Jones. He put up a .490 OPS with 0 homers in his first 25 games, and he battled hamstring and quad injuries all year too. But he finally settled down and showed glimpses of his special talent to close out the season, slashing .339/.438/.500 with 2 homers, 6 steals, and a 20.5%/15.1% K%/BB% in 16 games at Single-A. Obviously it would have been preferrable for him to light the world on fire all season, but this year was his very first taste of pro ball, he was coming off major shoulder surgery, and he dealt with multiple lower body injuries. I would be very careful about judging such a special talent like this too harshly under those conditions, and he showed what’s to come at the end of the year. He needs to learn how to get the ball in the air more as his groundball rates were very high, but he isn’t the type of player who needs an extreme launch to thrive with double plus speed, a relatively mature plate approach, and plus raw power potential. Tack on plus CF defense, and Jones is a high floor player with all the upside still present from his draft year. Buy low if you can. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 91/24/83/.268/.344/.476/31

36) Colt Emerson SEA, SS, 18.8 – Selected 22nd overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, the 6’1”, 195 pound Emerson had an electric pro debut, both statistically and visually. He slashed .374/.496/.550 with 2 homers, 8 steals, and a 17.5%/14.9% K%/BB% in 24 games at rookie ball (251 wRC+) and Single-A (147 wRC+). He has an athletic, lightning quick lefty swing that the ball absolutely rockets off of. It’s geared for both power and average. He’s not a true burner, but he has speed and he was perfect on the bases. He’ll also be 18 years old for most of the 2024 season. He checks off almost every box that you look for in a potential elite prospect coming out of the draft (size, power, average, speed, age, sweet swing, production). If you’re drafting in the mid to late 1st round, and all the buzzy names are off the board, you can confidently take Emerson knowing he can easily end up amongst the best in the class. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 93/26/86/.277/.356/.475/15

37) Andrew Painter PHI, RHP, 21.0 – Painter underwent Tommy John surgery in late July 2023, which will keep him out for all, or almost all of 2024. As I wrote in the Baz blurb, if you’re going to take the Tommy John discount on pithing prospects, make sure they are elite ones, and Painter is most certainly an elite one. He had a silly pitching line of 1.56/0.89/155/25 in 103.2 IP spread across 3 levels (A, A+, AA) in 2022. He’s 6’7”, 215 pounds with plus control of an upper 90’s fastball, plus slider, potentially plus change, and an average curve. The timing of his elbow injury in spring training and the ultimate decision to get surgery in July makes it that he will miss two entire seasons. I do think it is prudent to factor in at least some extra injury/performance risk, but if you want to assume he picks right back up from where he left off without any setbacks, I can see ranking him at least 20 spots higher. 2024 Projection: OUT Prime Projection: 15/3.28/1.08/215 in 180 IP

38) Mason Miller OAK, RHP, 25.7 – Injury risk is why I’ve been hesitant to truly put Mason Miller in the elite pitching prospect tier (he missed 4 months with a UCL sprain in 2023), and it seems Oakland has the same concerns as their GM announced Miller will start 2024 in the bullpen, and likely in the closer role. If I owned Miller, I wouldn’t even be mad at that outcome. Back in the day I was the high guy by far on Josh Hader, and while I was disappointed he never got a chance to prove he could be an ace, he’s been a mainstay on my fantasy team for 7 years. No injuries. No missed time. Just easy dominance that puts your mind at rest about scurrying for closers every year. Miller has the stuff to be in that elite closer tier with a 98.3 MPH fastball and an elite slider that put up a .207 xwOBA and 47.1% whiff% in 33.1 IP over 10 outings in his MLB debut. They haven’t ruled out a return to the rotation down the line, but I wouldn’t count on that as you plan for the future of your dynasty team. 2024 Projection: 4/3.25/1.14/88/25 saves in 65 IP

39) Kyle Manzardo CLE, 1B, 23.8 – Manzardo was getting unlucky all season, and it was only a matter of time for him to get hot. Well, he got hot in a major way on September 8th and he took it right into the AFL. He smacked 6 homers in his final 11 regular season games and then crushed 6 dingers in 22 AFL games. He had a 90.6 MPH EV with very low groundball rates at Triple-A, so like I said, the homer binge was inevitable. The hit tool took a step back from 2022 with a .237 BA and 20.8% K% at Triple-A, so while there are still no contact issues, I might be leaning towards him being power over hit by a small margin. It will depend on how he adjusts vs. MLB pitchers. Cleveland gave up really good value to get him with Aaron Civale, so that 1B job has his name written all over it right out of camp. 2024 Projection: 69/23/77/.251/.328/.452/1 Prime Projection: 85/27/90/.269/.346/.482/1

40) Jung Hoo Lee SFG, OF, 25.7 – San Francisco signed Lee to a 6 year, $113 million contract, which is definitely an eye opening amount, but he earned that contract for his real life baseball value, and not for his fantasy value. He had extremely high groundball rates in Korea with a 59.2% GB% in 2023, and he doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard. He hit only 6 homers in 86 games. He has speed, but he’s not a true burner, and he hasn’t been a good base stealer. He was 6 for 9 in 2023 and has a career high of 13 steals in 20 attempts. He also fractured his ankle in July which required season ending surgery, so that adds even more risk to his future steal projections. And to top it all off, he landed in one of the very worst hitter’s parks in the league. He’s truly elite at what he does well though, and that is hit for average. He had a 5.9%/12.7% K%/BB% in 2023, and he has a career .340 BA. He was a baseball prodigy with baseball bloodlines, dominating the KBO from the time he was 18 years old with a sweet lefty swing. He’s not a small guy at 6’0”, and there is most certainly room to tack on mass at a relatively skinny 171 pounds. He has a little bit of that Ichiro feel to him, where if he wanted to hit for more power, he would, and he did crack 23 homers in 142 games in 2022, so it’s not like he’s been some light hitter in his career. It’s also possible he runs a lot more with the new stolen base rules in MLB. It might take him a couple years to get fully acclimated like it has Ha-Seong Kim, but once he does, a .300/15/15 season looks well within reach, and it wouldn’t shock me if he got to 20/20. He might be more valuable in real life than fantasy, but that doesn’t mean he still can’t be a very good fantasy player. 2024 Projection: 81/11/51/.285/.341/.401/12 Prime Projection: 93/15/62/.305/.371/.437/15

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Baltimore Orioles 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I like to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team, and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Baltimore Orioles 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 78 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
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-Off-Season content includes team dynasty reports, deep positional rankings, predicting future prospects lists, strategy articles, podcasts and very, very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Milwaukee Brewers–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

Hitters

Jordan Westburg BAL, 2B/3B, 25.1 – I named Westburg one of my Top 10 Early Off-Season Dynasty Targets (Patreon), because there is no better time to go after a former top prospect than when they have a lukewarm MLB debut. Westburg had only 3 homers, 4 steals, and a .715 OPS in his 68 game debut, but it’s the individual components of the underlying numbers that make me so excited. He crushed the ball with a 90.2/94.0 MPH AVG/FB EV, he had a strong 13.4 degree launch, he has plus speed with a 28.9 ft/sec sprint, he had no contact issues with a 25.8% whiff%, and he didn’t chase with an almost dead average 28.4% Chase%. To top it all off, he was a plus defensive player at both 2B and 3B. That is a pretty Teflon combination of skills to have. He proved his superiority at Triple-A too with 18 homers, 6 steals, a .295 BA and a 131 wRC+ in 67 games. While Gunnar and Adley hog all the attention on the MLB level, and Holliday, Mayo etc … hog all the attention on prospect lists, you should sneakily tip toe in there and steal Westburg from his current owner like a thief in the night. 2024 Projection: 78/23/74/.269/.330/.448/14 Prime Projection: 89/26/86/.277/.342/.471/16

Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS/3B, 22.9 – If Gunnar took advantage of the new stolen base rules like almost everyone else, Gunnar vs. Carroll would still look very close today, but he only attempted 13 steals in 150 games. It’s not like he couldn’t have run more with a 28.8 ft/sec sprint and a solid 77% success rate, so if he just decides to start running more in 2024, he could quickly rise up the dynasty rankings even further. Even with the modest steal totals, there is a ton to love, led by how hard he crushes the ball. His 92 MPH EV is in the top 9% of the league, and he unsurprisingly raised his launch angle much higher than in his MLB debut in 2022 (2 degrees) with an 11.4 degree launch. He also cemented the huge jump his hit tool took in 2022 with a 25.6%/9.0% K%/BB% this year. It all led to a 123 wRC+ with 28 homers. The only issue he hasn’t corrected is his struggles vs. lefties with a .618 OPS, but Baltimore looks committed to playing him everyday and not turning him into a platoon guy, so I have faith he will hit them well enough over time. Keep in mind he will still be only 22 at the start of next season. He ranked 30th overall on A Top 78 Sneak Peek of the 2024 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). 2024 Projection: 97/30/91/.266/.341/.506/15

Pitchers

Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 24.5 – Rodriguez had a 7.35 ERA in his first 45.1 IP before Baltimore sent him back down, but he was different man when they called him back up, putting up a 2.58 ERA with a 24%/6.9% K%/BB% in his final 76.2 IP. He throws a 5 pitch mix led by a 97.4 MPH fastball and three above average to plus secondaries in his changeup, slider, and curve (he mixes in a cutter too). Even in his dominant 2nd half run, he didn’t really excel in any one area. He didn’t miss a ton of bats, the control wasn’t elite, and he didn’t particularly induce a ton of weak contact. It makes me a little hesitant to say he will be a true fantasy ace next season, but with his level of stuff and minor league performance, it seems inevitable he will get there eventually. 2024 Projection: 13/3.59/1.13/181 in 170 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.23/1.01/220 in 190 IP

Kyle Bradish BAL, RHP, 27.7 – I’m a little skeptical of fully buying into Bradish, mostly because of how elite his surface stats were relative to what I think his true talent level is. He put up a pitching line of 2.83/1.04/25%/6.6% in 168.2 IP. That is an ace level pitching line and it’s sure to push his trade value and draft value higher than I would be willing to go. His 3.82 xERA and 3.76 SIERA were both much worse. But I don’t want it to come across that I don’t like him, because he made real improvements in 2023. He threw his bad 4-seam fastball (.433 xwOBA) much less in favor of his plus 95 MPH sinker (.314 xwOBA). And he also threw his above average slider (36.4% whiff%) and curve (35.6% whiff%) more. He did all of that with improved control with a well above average 6.6% BB%. This new pitch mix has me buying into him as a Top 100-ish dynasty asset, but I wouldn’t be willing to go higher than that. 2024 Projection: 11/3.62/1.19/165 in 165 IP

Bullpen 

Yennier Cano BAL, Closer, 30.1 – Felix Bautista underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss all of 2024, which leaves the Baltimore closer job wide open. It’s not a guarantee that Cano will win the job, but he has to be considered the heavy favorite. He broke out in 2023 with a pitching line of 2.11/1.00/65/13/8 saves in 72.2 IP. His 96.3 MPH sinker is the 4th most valuable sinker in the game (including starters) with a negative 10 degree launch and a .292 xwOBA against. His changeup and slider both get whiffs with a 40.5% and 37.7% whiff%, respectively. And he showed elite control with a 4.6% BB%. He doesn’t strike enough guys out to be considered in the elite tier, and he doesn’t have a strong enough hold on the job both this year and in the future to really extend yourself for him, but it seems likely he will be an above average closer in 2024. 2024 Projection: 3/3.22/1.14/66/28 saves in 65 IP

Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 20.4 – Holliday’s power/speed combo really wasn’t that huge with only 12 homers and 24 steals (in 33 attempts) in 125 games spread across 4 levels (A, A+, AA, AAA). It dropped off even further in the upper minors with 5 homers and 4 steals in 54 games. It seems crazy to start his blurb off with criticism, but when the battle for the top prospect in the game is so close, it needs to be highlighted. Now that we got that out of the way, Holliday had an absolutely insane season where he slashed .323/.442/.499 with a 20.3%/17.4% K%/BB%. He was in high school last year, and he displayed one of the most advanced plate approaches of any prospect all the way through Triple-A. This is why everyone drools over kids with baseball bloodlines, they tend to be far advanced beyond their years. As I mentioned, the power isn’t fully developed yet with relatively low flyball rates, but he hits the ball hard with a 30.2% Hard Hit% and a 90.9 MPH EV in 40 batted balls at Triple-A, so I’m not concerned about the power long term. He has the safety edge over Chourio, but it’s not like Chourio is a risky prospect, so Holliday will slot in at #2 for me on my upcoming 2024 Top 500 Prospects Rankings. 2024 Projection: 78/16/71/.270/.339/.441/20 Prime Projection: 117/27/94/.296/.382/.506/28

2) Coby Mayo BAL, 1B/3B, 22.4 – My boldest prediction in last off-season’s Predicting the 2024 Top 50 Prospects Rankings was that Coby Mayo would explode to a Top 10 prospect, predicting that “Mayo will follow in Gunnar Henderson’s footsteps with an off the charts type season in the upper minors. He’ll put up a 150 wRC+ at Double-A and a 130 wRC+ at Triple-A. The K% will be under 25%, the power will be huge, and there will be some surprising speed too.” … Mayo put up a 178 wRC+ in 78 games at Double-A and a 127 wRC+ in 62 games at Triple-A. The power was huge with 29 homers in 140 games, and the K% was under 25% at 24.1%. I don’t think I could have nailed that more even if I was actually able to see into the future. The surprising speed didn’t really show up with only 5 steals, but better than nothing. The 6’5”, 230 pound Mayo is now a truly elite power hitting prospect, just as I expected. 2024 Projection: 31/11/35/.242/.319/.455/2 Prime Projection: 86/34/99/.265/.346/.535/6

3) Samuel Basallo BAL, C/1B, 19.8 – The biggest issue with Basallo has nothing to do with him. It’s that Adley isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. And with Baltimore trying to build a Tampa Bay North situation, I don’t think they are going to feel pressured to trade him either. His bat will profile just fine at 1B, but now we’re talking about competition with Coby Mayo and possibly Heston Kjerstad too. Maybe I’m just borrowing trouble a bit too much, because Basallo looks like he has a special bat. He’s a built up 6’3” with a treacherous lefty swing that is made to do damage, slashing .313/.404/.551 with 20 homers, 12 steals, and a 94/61 K/BB in 114 games at mostly Single-A and High-A. Four of those games came at Double-A where he put up a 220 wRC+. He’s a complete hitter with power, contact, and patience. And he did all of that as an 18 year old for most of the season. If defense wasn’t a slight issue (he’s not a particularly good defensive catcher either), I would likely be even higher on him, but he has the type of bat where maybe you should just completely ignore it. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 84/32/95/.272/.354/.517/5

4) Heston Kjerstad BAL, 1B/OF, 25.1 – Kjerstad finally played in his first full professional season since being draft 2nd overall in 2022 due to myocarditis, and he showed why he got draft so highly, slashing .303/.376/.528 with 21 homers, 5 steals, and a 18.4%/7.7% K%/BB% in 122 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He cooled off towards the end of the season with a .680 OPS in his final 34 games, but that’s understandable as he almost doubled his career high in games. He also closed the year out in the majors where he showed off the massive power with 2 homers, a 92.3 MPH EV and 19.3 degree launch in 33 PA. The power is unquestionable, but the plate approach was rough with a 30.3%/6.1% K%/BB%, and his plate approach hasn’t been the strongest point of his game going back to college, so there is certainly some risk there. There is also a major, no ending in sight playing time scrum brewing in Baltimore. 2024 Projection: 44/15/50/.246/.313/.452/3 Prime Projection: 76/27/85/.259/.325/.483/6

5) DL Hall BAL, LHP, 25.6 – Hall wasn’t able to properly ramp up last off-season which resulted in his fastball velocity dropping a tick or two in the 1st half, and he struggled because of it with a 4.67 ERA in his first 44.1 IP. Baltimore then shut him down for a month to build strength back up and his velocity returned in a bullpen role in the 2nd half. He closed out the year in the majors and showed why he’s been such a highly touted prospect with a 2.84 ERA and 31.2%/6.5% K%/BB% in 22.2 IP (including the playoffs). The 95.6 MPH fastball was silly elite with a .243 xwOBA and 30.2% whiff%, the changeup was plus with a 36.4% whiff% and .241 xwOBA, and the slider was mediocre with a 31% whiff% and .358 xwOBA. It resulted in a near elite 30.3% whiff% overall. The most impressive thing was his control (6.5% BB%) as he’s struggled with his control his entire career. I think Baltimore is going to be tempted to continue to use him out of the bullpen, but I hope they give him a real chance to win a rotation spot out of camp, because he will almost surely win one. This is legit ace upside, and although the control improvements were in a small sample and out of the bullpen, they are extremely encouraging to me. I came into this blurb expecting to be lukewarm on Hall, but I’m kinda all in on him now. I would buy low for sure. 2024 Projection: 5/3.64/1.28/110 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.53/1.24/180 in 150 IP

6) Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 24.0 – Cowser had a terrible MLB debut with a lowly 40 wRC+ and .115 BA in 77 PA, but he got massively unlucky. He had a .175 BABIP, his .302 xwOBA was much higher than his .226 wOBA, and none of his underlying numbers looked concerning at all really. He was a beast at Triple-A with a 136 wRC+, 17 homers, and 9 steals in 87 games. Despite not being overly concerned with the MLB debut, there are a few things that make me think he could end up a more solid than standout 5×5 BA fantasy player. The strikeout rates are on the high side with a 26.8% K% at Triple-A and 28.6% in MLB, the launch angle is on the low side with a 25.2% flyball% at Triple-A and 4.6 degree launch in MLB, and he’s not a true burner with a 27.9 ft/sec sprint speed. Add a star in OBP leagues as he’s an extremely patient hitter who rarely chases, but I’m seeing a more solid across the board type than a true league winner. 2024 Projection: 43/9/36/.248/.322/.410/7 Prime Projection: 83/21/77/.264/.348/.440/14

7) Enrique Bradfield BAL, OF, 22.4 –  If Willie Mays Hayes were a real person, he would be Enrique Bradfield. Selected 17th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Bradfield is an absolute terror on the bases with 37 steals in 62 games at Vandy. He then literally stole a base a game in pro ball with 25 steals in 25 games at mostly Single-A. He has a legit shot of stealing over 50 bags with the new rules, and can maybe even approach Esteury Ruiz levels, but like Ruiz, the other parts of his hitting profile leave something to be desired. He has well below average power and the hit tool really isn’t that great either. He had a .279 BA this year in college and he hit 0 homers in his pro debut with the wood bats (he also had 0 homers in 11 games in the wood bat Cape League in 2022). He’s purely a speed play, but that speed can carry your fantasy team. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 77/8/49/.263/.331/.378/41

8) Mac Horvath BAL, 3B/OF, 22.8 – Selected 53rd overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Horvath is a high risk, high reward college bat with a big power/speed combo and hit tool issues. He’s a great athlete at a strong 6’1”, 195 pounds with a quick and powerful righty swing. He cracked 24 homers with 25 steals in 60 games in the ACC, and then he obliterated pro ball with a 323 wRC+ in 3 games in rookie ball, 160 wRC+ in 14 games at Single-A, and 184 wRC+ in 5 games at High-A. It was good for 5 homers and 14 steals in 22 games overall. He’s on the older side, the 26.3% K% shows the hit tool risk, and Baltimore is stacked, so the path to playing time isn’t clear, but he’s the type of prospect you buy when you want big upside from someone who isn’t a teenager. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 71/23/76/.237/.318/.448/18

9) Dylan Beavers BAL, OF, 22.8 – Beavers has yet to show the level of power he displayed in college on the pro level with only 11 homers and a weak 22.2% Hard Hit% in 119 games split between High-A and Double-A, but everything else in his profile looks strong with a mature plate approach, solid contact rates, and speed. He slashed .288/.383/.467 with 27 steals and a 22.1%/13.3% K%/BB%. He performed even better at Double-A (150 wRC+) than he did at High-A (125 wRC+). There is definitely more raw power in the tank at 6’4”, 206 pounds, so if he can find a way to tap into it more, he could be trouble. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/18/72/.260/.328/.421/16

10) Joey Ortiz BAL, SS/2B, 25.9 – This last spot is a toss up between Ortiz and Norby, but I think both are headed for part time roles to start their careers with Gunnar, Holliday, and Westburg ahead of them on the depth chart. I gave the nod to Ortiz because he has the superior glove, which is often the determining factor for who gets on the field. He also hits the ball quite hard (90 MPH EV at Triple-A and a 88.2 MPH EV in his 34 PA MLB debut), has above average speed (28.1 ft/sec sprint) and has above average to plus contact rates (17.7%/8.2% K%/BB%). Along with the playing time concerns, he doesn’t lift the ball enough to put up big homer totals, and the upside seems lacking in general. 2024 Projection: 22/5/17/.258/.317/.398/6 Prime Projection: 73/16/69/.274/.331/.418/16

Just Missed

11) Connor Norby BAL, 2B, 23.9

12) Chayce McDermott BAL, RHP, 25.7

13) Cade Povich BAL, LHP, 24.0

14) Jud Fabian BAL, OF, 23.6

15) Seth Johnson BAL, RHP, 25.6

16) Braylin Tavera BAL, OF, 19.1

17) Leandro Arias BAL, SS, 19.2

18) Matthew Etzel BAL, 3B, 21.11

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Development isn’t linear, and that goes tenfold for pitchers, but it can be hard to figure out how to apply that knowledge in practice, rather than just in theory. So I appreciate DL Hall making it really easy on us. Just as his dynasty value and ranking on prospect lists have fallen off a cliff to levels lower than it’s ever been, is when his target status has never been juicier for me. The velocity dipped in the first half of the season, he hasn’t been able to meaningfully improve his control in 6 years, and the bullpen is calling his name, so people are starting to give up. But his velocity bounced back in the 2nd half and he had a legitimate reason for the 1st half dip, he showed glimpses of improved control for the first time in his career, and he showed the potential for dominant performance on the MLB level. And of course, the filthy stuff that made him so hyped earlier in his career is still there with an elite mid 90’s fastball and 2 potentially plus secondaries in his changeup and slider. I’ve never been higher and more excited about him, and his value has never been lower. I’m going after him.

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