Shota Imanaga – Imaginary Brick Wall

It’s all about the Cubbies on the Brick Wall today! I dive into their Top 11 Prospects, analyze their most interesting young MLB players, and then I jump off the Matt Shaw blurb to talk about how good the little man discount has been to me over the years in the Dynasty Strategy section. Like during the regular season, I will be posting a few articles a month for free here on Imaginary Brick Wall with the vast majority of the content over on the Patreon. This is one of those articles. Here is the Chicago Cubs 2025 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

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-END OF SEASON 2024 438 DYNASTY RANKS
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS with full scouting reports and prime projections (a Top 100+ is coming later this off-season)
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Hitters

Pete Crow-Armstrong – CHC, OF, 23.0 – Pete Crow Armstrong’s power has been underrated from the time he was drafted. He was my #1 target in his 2020/21 FYPD class after getting drafted a ridiculous 19th overall, writing in his FYPD blurb, “Armstrong stands out for his plus speed, plus defense, and strong track record of hitting. Power hasn’t been a big part of his game, but he has recently added muscle onto his projectable 6’1” frame, and a 99 MPH exit velocity mark at a 2019 Perfect Game event is damn good. Armstrong is my favorite target in first year player drafts relative to consensus.” I’ve basically named him a target every 3 months since then, even ranking him within my Top 100 overall last off-season at #99. And in 2024, especially the 2nd half of 2024, we started to see the first buds of a breakout that could absolutely explode in 2025. He put up a 88.9/94.0 MPH AVG/FB EV on the season, which shows that power potential I saw 4 years ago wasn’t a mirage. And when it comes with a 17.2 degree launch, an elite 30.0 ft/sec sprint speed, and elite CF defense, you have the makings of an extremely exciting fantasy player. We saw that player in his final 65 games, slashing .267/.317/.457 with 9 homers, 11 steals, and a 21.8/6.9 K%/BB%. I ranked him 67th overall on the Top 75 Sneak Peek of the 2025 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon), but the reason why he isn’t ranked even higher is because he still does have some deficiencies in his game. His 70.6 MPH swing is below average, his 41.4% Chase% is extreme, and his 29.9% whiff% is well below average. That isn’t exactly my favorite trifecta of skills, but he’s still so young, I foresee all of those numbers improving. And focusing on what he doesn’t do well is silly when what he does do well is so insanely exciting. Put some respect on this man’s name. His name is Pete Crow Armstrong, not Pete Crow Armweak. – 2025 Projection: 82/18/71/.244/.312/.425/31 Prime Projection: 93/24/74/.259/.331/.446/44

Michael Busch – CHC, 1B, 27.4 – Busch is a mixed bag of things you really want to buy into, and things that make you hesitant to buy in too hard. On the positive side, his 11.2% Barrel%, 89.9/95.4 MPH AVG/FB EV, and 17.2 degree launch makes you think he can truly be a preeminent power hitter in this game. But those numbers only resulted in 21 homers in 152 games last year, and his expected homer totals were right in that area too, so he wasn’t really unlucky there. His below average 70.3 MPH swing it really the thing that makes me hesitant to start projecting perennial 30+ homer seasons. The true top power hitters in the game generally swing a much, much quicker bat, and while that bat speed doesn’t preclude him from hitting 30+, I think it does make mid 20 homer projections more reasonable moving forward, which would make him a good fantasy first baseman, but not a truly great one. And of course the most obvious downside is the swing and miss with a 28.6% K%, leading to a .248 BA and .217 xBA. I’m not expecting his BA to bottom out, but I think the risk is there. Add a star in OBP leagues as his plate approach is excellent with a 11.1% BB% and well above average 23.2% Chase%. 2025 Projection: 77/25/83/.244/.330/.458/2

Pitchers

Ben Brown – CHC, RHP, 25.7 – Brown is one of my top pitcher targets for 2025. I’ve been calling him a target for a few years now in that bucket of pitching prospect that I love to shop in (close to the majors, big stuff, upper minors production, moderate to little hype), and now that he’s proven it in the majors, he becomes a true 5 alarm target. And the best part is, even after he proved it in the majors, he’s still getting majorly underrated. He put up a 3.58 ERA with a 28.8/8.6 K%/BB% in 55.1 IP. A neck injury ended his season in June, but the expectation is for him to have a normal off-season. He throws gas with a 96.4 MPH fastball that was an above average pitch (although the underlying numbers weren’t as good). His curveball was amongst the very best in baseball with a 51% whiff% and .183 xwOBA. He performed better against righties than he did lefties, but even with just two pitches basically, he still put up an above average .304 wOBA vs lefties. He also threw a lesser used changeup, cutter, sinker and sweeper at Triple-A in 2023, so I don’t think he is locked in as a two pitch pitcher. The cutter in particular seems to have promise as a third pitch. Point being, even with two pitches I think he can be a high K, mid rotation starter, and if he can find that effective 3rd+ pitch, there could be an even higher level in here. He’s control over command, but it’s good to see the walk rate stay about average in his MLB debut. He might start the season in the bullpen depending on what Chicago does the rest of the off-season, but I don’t think Chicago has plans to ban him to the bullpen permanently. They used him as a starter last year and he was great, so it would make little sense for them not to give him a full shot in the rotation long term. I’m going after him. 2025 Projection: 8/3.79/1.23/150 in 130 IP

Shota Imanaga – CHC, LHP, 31.7 – It’s no secret that I enjoy a good victory lap like Wade Boggs on horseback taking a victory lap around Yankee Stadium after beating the Braves in the 1996 World Series. Like Boggs, I also eat chicken before I write every article, and I also drink 107 beers on a flight before going 2 for 3 with 2 doubles just hours later. Come to think of it, maybe that was CJ Abrams problem. Not that he partied until 8 am, but that he went 0 for 3 right after that. Dude, we all know that if you are going to be a rebel, you better produce. Maybe he did deserve that punishment after all ;). Now where was I? Oh yea, victory lapping. While I do believe in celebrating your hits, I also believe in taking the walk of shame for your misses, and finding lessons in who I consider to be my biggest miss, Shota Imanaga. I had Imanaga pegged as a good, but not great MLB pitcher, giving him a projection of 11/3.91/1.22/175 in 160 IP. He ended up going 15/2.91/1.02/174 in 173.1 IP. I believe where I went wrong was that I overrated fastball velocity, and while to my credit, the 91.7 MPH fastball actually didn’t miss that many bats (17.5% whiff%) or induce weak contact (91.2 MPH EV with .327 xwOBA), it was still a positive value pitch with a 52% usage rate, and it came with elite control, an elite secondary (splitter), a diverse pitch mix, and a history of ace production in the 2nd toughest league in the world. I shouldn’t have let a low 90’s fastball blind me to how good and established the rest of the profile was, and also to the fact that the fastball was still pretty good despite the low velocity. This wasn’t my only miss, but I believe that every other miss I had, my process was good and I don’t regret my take on them. Imanaga is the only one where I’m disappointed in my evaluation, and I will be taking those lessons with me headed into 2025, starting with properly ranking him for next season, which is in the near ace tier. – 2025 Projection: 13/3.28/1.06/182 in 175 IP

Bullpen

Porter Hodge – CHC, Closer, 24.1 – Hodge took over the closer job in late August and he ran with it, locking down 8 saves in his final 13 appearances. He was lights out when he got the call to the bigs in late May, putting up a 1.88 ERA with a 31.7/11.6 K%/BB% in 43 IP. The stuff is most certainly closer stuff with the best sweeper in baseball that put up a +11 Run Value (tied with Anthony Bender) with a 51.8% whiff%. The fastball sits 95.5 MPH and put up very good .298 xwOBA. Below average control is the only thing that can tank him, and while plenty of elite closers have below average control, there is still some risk there as we saw with Camilo Doval and Alexis Diaz last year. The Cubs might sign a vet to give Hodge competition, but as now, he’s the man, and he has the upside to be an impact fantasy closer. 2025 Projection: 4/3.41/1.18/77/29 saves in 63 IP

Chicago Cubs 2025 Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects Rankings

1) Matt Shaw – CHC, 3B/2B/SS, 23.4 – The little man discount never fails. Baseball scouts see a little man, and they immediately shave a few inches of projection right off the top. I don’t mind it, because it consistently creates excellent buying opportunities for the right players (see the Dynasty Strategy Section below for more thoughts on this), and Matt Shaw is definitely one of those right players. He went a little later than he should have in the real MLB Draft, then he went a little later than he should have in Dynasty First Year Player Drafts, and now he’s getting ranked a little later than he should be on prospect lists. He’s an elite prospect that gets ranked like a merely good one. He might only be 5’9”, but his bat packs a true punch, putting up an 89.3 MPH EV with a 14.6 degree launch in 35 games at Triple-A. He smoked 21 homers on the season in 121 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s not a pull machine, but a lot of these lift and pull machines put up some pretty low batting averages, and a profile like Shaw doesn’t need to only pull the ball. He can use his hard hit ability, plus speed (31 steals), and plus contact rates (18.2% K%) to do damage when he goes oppo. He also walks a ton with a 11.9% BB%, making him a likely top of the order bat. Don’t fall into the little man trap, Shaw is going to be a do everything fantasy terror when he gets his shot. I don’t know exactly how the chips are going to fall as to where he ends up on the diamond and when he gets his shot, but it will work itself out one way or the other. Shaw’s been a target for me from before his junior year of college, and he remains a target for me. 2025 Projection: 41/9/45/.256/.318/.419/12 Prime Projection: 96/23/83/.276/.348/.461/26

2) Kevin Alcantara – CHC, OF, 22.8 – The Forgotten Unicorn continues to fly just low enough under the radar to not have the hype explode, while continuing to perform very well and show off his truly special tools. He’s a still projectable 6’6”, 188 pounds with a double plus raw power/speed combo. He put up a 91 MPH EV at Triple-A with a 29.2 ft/sec sprint in the majors. And it’s not like he’s struggled in the minors at all, He’s actually been extremely good his entire career, never putting up a wRC+ under 123 at any stop other than when he was a 16 year old in rookie ball. This year he did it in the upper minors all season as a 21/22 year old, slashing .278/.353/.428 with 14 homers, 14 steals, and a 26.0/9.9 K%/BB% in 111 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. The cherry on top is that he’s a good CF, which could make a potent OF with PCA in center and Alcantara in a corner down the line. He’s not a finished product with hit tool risk and too many groundballs, but his hype should be so much higher than it is. Alcantara makes for a great upside target. 2025 Projection: 22/7/29/.229/.294/.407/6 Prime Projection: 79/23/78/.251/.328/.449/18

3) Cam Smith – CHC, 3B, 22.1 – Selected 14th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, the 6’3”, 224 pound Smith generates a tremendous amount of power with very little movement in his swing. It is quick, powerful and short to the ball. It is straight up one of the quietest swings from one of the biggest men I’ve ever seen. The swing is geared more for a line drive, all fields approach rather than pull and lift, which is why he didn’t put up the gaudy homer totals as some of his other college hitting brethren with only 16 homers in 66 games in the ACC. But he has the raw power to make that profile work, and the upside is that it can come with a high BA. We saw what this profile can look like at it’s best in his dominant pro debut, slashing .313/.396/.609 with 7 homers, 2 steals, and a 17.9/11.2 K%/BB% in 32 games split between Single-A, High-A, and Double-A. He put up a 122 wRC+ in 5 games at Double-A, so the profile was transferring to the upper minors, and he clearly had no problems ripping dingers to all fields with the wood bat. He very well might have the top hit/power combo in the FYPD class, and it’s why he ranked 7th overall (really 8th overall with Roki now in the top spot) in my End of Season 2025 Top 56 First Year Player Drafts Rankings (full Top 130 coming later this off-season). – 2025 Projection: 12/4/17/.247/.308/.412/1 Prime Projection: 84/24/89/.273/.340/.466/4

4) Cade Horton – CHC, RHP, 23.7 – Horton’s season ended after just 34.1 IP with a lat strain, and let’s hope that lat strain is what led to his terrible run at Triple-A. He put up a 7.50 ERA with a 27.2/13.6 K%/BB% in 18 IP. The fastball was down to 94.1 MPH. The good news is that the secondaries (changeup, curve, slider) still missed a ton of bats and induced weak contact, and he also pitched much better at Double-A with a 1.10 ERA and 29.0/3.2 K%/BB% in 16.1 IP. We can give him a pass for his performance at Triple-A due to the injury, but Tommy John surgery knocked out his entire 2021 season, so injuries are starting to become a concern. He’s never pitched more than 88.1 IP in a season, so it’s a question if he can truly put up a full starter’s workload year after year, and also what level of stuff he can hold over those innings. His value took a hit this year, but it would be too risk averse to completely tank his value. I’m holding relatively strong. 2025 Projection: 4/4.13/1.32/74 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.68/1.19/163 in 150 IP

5) Moises Ballesteros – CHC, C, 21.5 – Ballesteros is a below average defensive catcher which makes it unclear if he will end up sticking behind the plate. He’s only 21 years old, so maybe he’ll improve, and maybe Chicago will be fine with his below average defense because they are not strong at catcher in both the majors and the minors. Even if Ballesteros moves off catcher to 1B/DH, he definitely has the bat to clear that high bar. He posseses one of the best hit/power combos in the minors, slashing .289/.354/.471 with 19 homers, 1 steal, and a 18.3/8.9 K%/BB% in 124 games split between Double-A (154 wRC+) and Triple-A (106 wRC+). And keep in mind he did that as a 20 year old. He started to lift and pull the ball more at Triple-A, which spiked his K rate a bit, but we’ll take that tradeoff for more dingers. Lack of defensive value can certainly end up a real issue if his bat ends up more above average than great, but Chicago has every incentive for him to stick behind the plate, so I’m leaning he gets a real shot there. He ranked 15th overall on the 2025 Deep Dynasty Baseball Positional Rankings: Top 78 Catchers (Patreon). – 2025 Projection: 33/9/39/.258/.307/.420/1 Prime Projection: 73/24/84/.275/.332/.457/2

6) Owen Caissie – CHC, OF, 22.9 – Caissie is a super easy evaluation as a low BA, high OBP slugger, but he really doesn’t hit as many homers as you would think with 19 homers in 127 games at Triple-A. His 33.4% FB% is on the low side for a slugger, which is what is holding down the homer totals. It’s helping his BA, hitting .278, but with a 28.4% K% (which is a career best), he’s not going to hit for a high BA in the majors regardless. There could be a scenario where the strikeout rate is hovering around 30% in the majors with a launch that really isn’t all that high, which could result is some pretty mediocre numbers. I mainly bring this up because it’s the most interesting thing about projecting his future value, but when you pan out for the big picture, he’s a powerful and athletic 6’3”, 190 pounds with current plus power and possibly more coming down the line. He’ll also chip in with steals, nabbing 11 bags. And add two stars in OBP leagues with a 12.9% BB%. I don’t want to lose the forest through the trees by slicing and dicing the numbers too much, so I’m still projecting his as a low BA, high OBP slugger no matter how you slice it. There is a short term logjam for playing time, but long term I don’t see many roadblocks. 2025 Projection: 19/6/25/.227/.303/.420/2 Prime Projection: 78/28/91/.246/.335/.480/7

7) James Triantos – CHC, 2B, 22.2 – Triantos ran a ton in 2024, stealing 47 bags in 115 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. I’m leading with that because it gives his profile an upside boost which he needed for fantasy. The contact rates have consistently ranged from plus to elite throughout his minor league career, putting up an 11.1 K% this season, but both the game power and raw power are well below average. He put up a 85.9 MPH EV at Triple-A with a 2 degree launch. He doesn’t walk much with a 5.6% BB%, which isn’t great for his chances to hit at the top of the lineup, and he’s not really an asset on defense as a solid 2B. The hit/speed combo is certainly good enough to make him a good fantasy prospect, but lack of impact, OBP and defense keeps him as more of a Top 150 prospect for me. 2025 Projection: 19/2/11/.260/.303/.365/7 Prime Projection: 81/11/52/.282/.328/.408/26

8) Alexander Canario – CHC, OF, 24.11 – I was always visually amazed when watching Canario swing, writing, “he swings the bat like it’s a bazooka with an extreme all or nothing approach,” in last year’s Top 1,000 writeup, and now with bat speed tracking, we saw Canario put up an eye poppingly elite 78 MPH swing. It was in a small sample (40 swings), but that was 4th best in all of baseball. My eyes certainly weren’t deceiving me, and it’s what keeps Canario interesting to me for fantasy. He’s going to rip dingers if he gets playing time, like he did at Triple-A with 18 homers and a 16.8% Barrel% in 64 games. He also keeps producing in the majors in small samples (despite an extremely high K%) with a 148 wRC+ in 17 PA in 2023 and a 128 wRC+ in 28 PA in 2024. The swing is on the long side and he strikes out a ton (30.4% K% at Triple-A), so the batting average is a major risk, and it may prevent him from ever really truly locking down a full time job, but that power upside is big enough to crack this list. 2025 Projection: 28/10/37/.223/.301/.438/2 Prime Projection: 64/25/78/.235/.314/.469/6

9) Jefferson Rojas – CHC, SS, 19.11 – I was a bit lower on Rojas than consensus last off-season, because I just didn’t see big enough tools to get really excited about him for fantasy, and that played out in 2024 with a mediocre season. He hit 6 homers with 21 steals (in 29 attempts) and a 88 wRC+ in 96 games at High-A. We have to grade on a curve because he was young for the level, and the 15.3% K% was excellent, so it’s not like it was a terrible year or anything, it just displayed that he’s a better real life prospect than a fantasy one. He can play SS and he gets the ball on the ball, which gives him a very high floor, but the power/speed combo projects to be moderate at best. He’s a solid fantasy prospect, but not a truly coveted one at the moment. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 78/17/71/.273/.326/.421/15

10) Jonathon Long – CHI, 1B, 23.2 – I’m a hawk for great pro debuts coming right out of the draft, and Long’s great pro debut in 2023 certainly got my attention. Despite getting picked 266th overall as a college bat (he signed for slot value, so there were no complicating signing bonus factors), I messed around and placed Long on my Top 1,000 Rankings, writing in part, “Long makes for an interesting late round target in deeper leagues … He has a very quick and powerful swing that looks relatively legit to me, and he hits the ball hard. Obviously don’t expect a league winner, but I think he’s a real prospect.” He then went out and proved in 2024 that he is most certainly a legit prospect, to say the least. He slashed .340/.455/.528 with 7 homers and a 16.5/17.5 K%/BB% in 46 games after getting the call to Double-A. He then went to the AFL and obliterated the league with a 1.088 OPS and 6 homers in 18 games. He’s still a mostly 1B prospect (he can play some 3B too) whose reasonable projection is more of a good bat than a great one, so he’s still more of a deeper league guy, but he most certainly backed up that great pro debut. He’s a close to the majors bat who can make a fantasy impact if he can work his way into the lineup. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 68/20/76/.257/.326/.441/1

11) Brandon Birdsell – CHC, RHP, 25.0 – Birdsell is certainly in the bucket of pitching prospect I like to shop in that I talked about in the Ben Brown blurb, but his profile reminds me a bit of Adam Mazur’s, who burned me this season, so I’m going to stay restrained in my expectations for Birdsell. Like Mazur, he has plus control of a 95 MPH fastball that doesn’t have a great movement profile, although Birdsell’s fastball missed considerably more bats at Triple-A than Mazur’s did. And like Mazur he has an above average slider as his best secondary to go along with a starter’s pitch mix. It all resulted in a 3.91 ERA with a 23.5/5.4 K%/BB% in 135.2 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A. Like Mazur, I’m leaning towards more of a #4 starter as a reasonable upside projection for Birdsell. The deeper the league, the more value he has. 2025 Projection: 2/4.36/1.34/56 in 70 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.07/1.25/138 in 150 IP

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Jumping off from the Matt Shaw blurb, the little man discount has been one of the most profitable discounts over the years in Dynasty Baseball. I get it, because when you are watching a prospect, the ones who are massive human beings with insane tools are so very easy to identify and drool over. And I sure as hell love those unicorns as well (see my Kevin Alcantara blurb), but that doesn’t mean you should discount the truly electric little guys. Sure, if the EV data doesn’t back them up, discount away, but when the EV data does back them up, there is no reason to be so skeptical. Little man Corbin Carroll (5’10”) was my 3rd ranked FYPD prospect in his draft year because his EV data was impressive, and he still dropped to 16th overall in the draft (Shaw dropped to 13th overall). I remember when Carson Cistulli, formerly of Fangraphs, was extolling the virtues of the 5’9” Mookie Betts from before I was writing when nobody else was. The 5’9” Jose Ramirez was a target of mine when I was just playing the game of dynasty, not writing yet, and sure I didn’t keep him after his lackluster 2015 season, missing out the beginning of his breakout in 2016, but clearly I was onto something. And no, throwing Ramirez back into the player pool before his breakout definitely doesn’t still eat at me almost 10 years later. Definitely not ;). Back to current day, Jett Williams is another worthy little man discount pick, as is Slade Caldwell in this year’s first year player draft. It’s the gift that keeps on giving, and until the right little men start getting valued correctly, I’ll keep on scooping those little cuties up at that discounted price.

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon (free ones listed in parenthesis)

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 75 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2025 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2024 TOP 322 PROSPECTS RANKS
-END OF SEASON 2024 438 DYNASTY RANKS
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS with full scouting reports and prime projections (a Top 100+ is coming later this off-season)
-2025 DEEP DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 Catchers
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: END OF SEASON MAILBAG!
-SPREADSHEETS
-OFF-SEASON CONTENT! – Dynasty Team Reports (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk) , Deep Positional Rankings, Predicting Future Prospect Lists, Fall/Winter League Updates, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks, Top 500+ Prospects Ranks, Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks & so much more!

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
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