Posted on by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/1/23)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/1/23):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 433 APRIL DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 324 APRIL PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (4/28/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG! 
-PREDICTING THE 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECTS RANKS
-7 EARLY SEASON DYNASTY STRATEGIES AND THOUGHTS

Carlos Jorge CIN, 2B, 19.7 – The little man discount is one of the most reliable discounts in prospecting, and there is a small army of little prospects ready to overthrow the Heightriarchy. The 5’10”, 160 pound Jorge is leading the charge after a huge day at the dish yesterday, going 4 for 7 with a double, homer, steal, and 0/1 K/BB in a doubleheader. He’s now slashing .323/.408/.532 with 2 homers, 5 steals, and a 25.4%/11.3% K%/BB% in 18 games at Single-A. He’s never put up a wRC+ under 151 or had an OBP under .400 in his 3 year career, but because he’s not 6’3”, he immediately gets discounted. Jose Ramirez, Mookie Betts, Wander Franco, Corbin Carroll, Cedric Mullins, Francisco Lindor, Randy Arozarena, Ozzie Albies, Jose Altuve, and many more have all proven you don’t have to be 6 feet or over to be an elite MLB player. Down with the Heightriarchy.

Luisangel Acuna TEX, SS/2B, 21.1 – Not even his older brother, Ronald, could protect Luisangel from the little guy bullying that he’s had to face his entire career on prospect lists. The 5’8” Acuna stole 3 bags yesterday, and he’s been handling his business at Double-A all year, slashing .319/.369/.436 with 1 homer, 10 steals, and a 20.2%/7.7% K%/BB% in 21 games. The power hasn’t come yet, but keeping that K rate in check is huge to see, and he’s a base stealing machine.

Jonatan Clase SEA, OF, 20.11 – The 5’9”, 150 pound Clase is trying to shatter that glass ceiling with Jorge and Acuna.  He went 1 for 4 with a steal and 1/2 K/BB yesterday and is now slashing .337/.455/.723 with 7 homers, 16 steals, and a 26.7%/16.8% K%/BB% in 20 games at High-A. Acuna, Jorge, and Clase were all named targets for me this off-season because I don’t see height. Clase cracked my Top 100 in the Updated Top 324 Dynasty Prospects Rankings that dropped last week on my Patreon.

Termarr Johnson PIT, 2B/SS, 18.11 – The 5’8”, 175 pound Johnson actually did get the respect he deserved in prospect rankings, but I was actually a little skeptical of how good that hit tool really was, predicting in the Predicting the Top 50 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings that “Johnson’s hit tool at Single-A won’t be as good as the hype.” He went 1 for 3 with a 2/0 K/BB yesterday and now has a 41.2% K% and .214 BA in 5 games. It’s still a super super small sample, and I still love him even if I do think the hit tool was maybe a little overhyped, but the slow start does play into my fears from the off-season.

Harry Ford SEA, C, 20.1 – The 5’10” Ford might not be tall, but he is a built like a tank, and he’s hitting like a tank. He went 2 for 6 with a double yesterday and is now slashing .282/.453/.493 with 3 homers, 5 steals, and a 18.9%/23.2% K%/BB% in 19 games at High-A. This coming off his great WBC for Great Britain which nearly got him knighted. He’s splitting his time between catcher and DH, and at this point, I almost hope he gets moved off catcher to let his bat shine. He has the speed and athleticism to play elsewhere.

Adael Amador COL, SS, 20.1 – Amador feels like he is part of the little man brigade, but he actually checks in at 6’0” on the dot. He got a late start to the season, but he’s starting to cook after drilling his first 2 homers of the year at High-A in 11 games. His elite contact rates have transferred to the level with a 11.3% K%, and so has his speed with 4 steals, but his high walk rates haven’t yet with a 3.8% BB%. His 56.8% GB% is probably too high to ever be a true power hitter, but he’s a high probability big leaguer with a strong across the board profile.

Denzel Clarke OAK, OF, 23.0 – Forget everything I just said about height. Now this is what a ballplayer is supposed to look like at 6’5”, 220 pounds with towering power and elite athleticism. This is the scout’s dream. Clark debuted on April 25th at Double-A and has done nothing but rake. He homered yesterday on a 3 for 5 day and now has 4 homers with a 372 wRC+ in 4 games. Most importantly, the K rate has been solid with a 26.3%/15.8% K%/BB%. If he can maintain even a below average K rate, oh boy, because this is a huge man with huge talent and nothing but opportunity in Oakland, er, Las Vegas.

Taj Bradley TBR, RHP, 22.0 – 1 IP, 5 hits, 8 ER, 2/2 K/BB at Triple-A. Tampa’s front office are either magic yogi’s who can see into the future and demoted Bradley before he could have this blow up in the majors. Or they are humans who undeservedly sent a kid down who was killing it in the majors, and being yanked around like that messed with his performance. I choose to believe it is the former.

Logan Allen CLE, LHP, 24.7 – 5 IP, 4 hits, 2 ER, 8/2 K/BB vs. BOS. The fastball sat 91.9 MPH and he induced tons of weak contact with a 85.9 EV against. Allen has pitched to ace levels in his MLB debut with a 2.45 ERA and 35.6%/6.7% K%/BB%, but there are signs he is pitching above his head. The 28.7% whiff% is not as big (although still good) and the 4.54 xERA is much higher than the ERA. He also didn’t display this level of control in his minor league career. Don’t get me wrong, it’s still a super encouraging MLB debut, but I wouldn’t expect him to keep it up to this level.

Nick Frasso LAD, RHP, 24.5 – 4 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 4/2 K/BB at Double-A. LA’s pitching logjam be damned, Frasso is one of my favorite pitching targets in the minors. He now has a 1.23 ERA with a 34.9%/5.8% K%/BB% in 22 IP. He has a nasty, plus 3 pitch mix and he’s like a lefty with a funky delivery, expect he throws righty, if you know what I mean. There is certainly risk he ends up in the pen because of circumstances, injury risk, and lack of innings in his career, but I just can’t ignore how high his upside is. I named him a target in my Top Dynasty Baseball Targets that dropped on Friday on the Patreon.

 Rayne Doncon LAD, 2B/SS, 19.7 – Doncon went 4 for 4 with a double, steal, and a 430 foot bomb. He’s now getting into position to truly explode up rankings, slashing .262/.344/.464 with 5 homers, 2 steals, and a 25%/11.5% K%/BB% in 20 games. He has an explosive swing that screams big time power and has shown a good feel to hit his entire career. Now is the time to get in on him if you haven’t already.

Elijah Green WAS, OF, 19.4 – Elly 2.0 has arrived. Green smashed a homer in back to back games for his first 2 of the year to go along with 8 steals and a 48.1% K% in 17 games at Single-A. He’s even rawer than we expected, but the talent is so huge it’s worth being patient for the hit tool to come around.

Samuel Zavala SDP, OF, 18.9 – Zavala broke out of his early season slump in a huge way, going 4 for 5 with a homer and a steal. All of a sudden his wRC+ is up to 106 as an 18 year old in 18 games at Single-A. It’s also a reminder of how we are still in the small sample size part of the season. One big game can take a guy from struggling hard, to being an above average hitter overnight. He’s still the phenom we thought he was.

Cam Collier CIN, 3B, 18.5 – Speaking of 18 year olds performing above average in full season ball, Collier ripped his first homer at the level on a 2 for 8 day to bring his season wRC+ up to 116 in 14 games. The 26.7% K% is a tad higher than optimal, and so is his 58.6% GB%, so while he’s not going full breakout, he’s proving his FYPD hype was deserved.

Colin Barber HOU, OF, 22.4 – Just call him high cholesterol, because Barber is the quietest killer in the minor leagues. He cracked his 2nd homer in 15 games at Double-A to bring his season wRC+ up to 145. Also, just look at his man’s quads. If this was fantasy football twitter, our heads would be exploding.

Tyler Locklear SEA, 1B, 22.5 – Locklear was drafted 58th overall as a bat first prospect, and that bat is rolling right through the lower minors after he cracked 2 homers yesterday. He has 4 homers with a 21.%/9.6% K%/BB% and 146 wRC+ in 20 games at High-A. He’s played exclusively 1B this year, so the bat will have to hit it’s ceiling to get playing time in the majors. I think the bat is real, but I probably wouldn’t get too excited until he’s doing it in the upper minors.

Cayden Wallace KC, 3B, 21.9 – Wallace went 2 for 8 with a dinger last night, and he’s another moderately hyped 2nd round pick who is handling his business at High-A, slashing .306/.414/.542 with 3 homers, 3 steals, and a 20.7%/14.9% K%/BB% in 20 games. Again, doing it at High-A doesn’t truly explode their ranking, but they are trending up and they should get the chance to prove themselves at Double-A in the not too distant future.

Jonny DeLuca LAD, OF, 24.9 – DeLuca was one of the many big risers in the Updated Top 324 Prospect Rankings, and he’s not slowing down after going 3 for 5 with his 6th homer in 20 games at Double-A. He could be that next sneaky, older prospect that comes out of nowhere for the Dodgers.

Daylen Lile WAS, OF, 20.4 – The 47th overall pick in the 2021 Draft, Lile missed all of 2022 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but I kept the faith on him just barely by ranking him 1,012 overall on the off-season Top 1,000. I also gave you a heads up that he looked pretty good in his spring debut. That faith has been rewarded after he went 3 for 5 with a homer yesterday. He’s now slashing .333/.409/.632 with 3 homers, 5 steals, and a 19.7%/10.6% K%/BB% in 14 games at Single-A. He’s 20 at Single-A, but we can give him a pass for that because of the missed development time. Now is probably the time to get in on him.

Darell Hernaiz OAK, SS/2B/3B, 21.8 – Oakland was happy to scoop Hernaiz off the back of the overstuffed middle infield prospect Orioles truck, and he’s delivering after going 3 for 5 with a dinger last night. He’s slashing .313/.366/.453 with 2 homers, 5 steals, and a 20.8%/8.3% K%/BB% as a 21 year old at Double-A. Oakland is the perfect spot for him with playing time galore available.

Kyle Harrison SFG, LHP, 21.8 – 3.2 IP, 0 hits, 1 ER, 7/4 K/BB at Triple-A. Harrison has more walks than innings pitched, and not by a little either with 21 walks in 15.2 IP. That is extreme to say the least. The stuff is so nasty it has still resulted in only a 4.02 ERA and 35.1% K%, and 15.2 IP is still a small sample. His value is dropping because the risk is getting even higher, but in general, he is a hold for me. Let’s see if he can work through these early season control problems, as he just needs to maintain below average control to thrive.

Carson Whisenhunt SFG, LHP, 22.5 – Whisenhunt got the call to High-A and was lights out, going 4 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 6/0 K/BB. The fastball was sitting in the mid 90’s and the changeup was nasty as usual. Here are the highlights from his start. The breaking ball can definitely look a little dinky, and it’s still the lower minors, but it could be time to start getting excited. He looks like a good one.

Tsung-Che Cheng PIT, SS, 21.10 – If feels fitting to end this Rundown like we started it, with the smallest prospect of them all standing at 5’7″, 154 pounds. But his production has been anything but small (never had a wRC+ under 129 in his 3 year career), and he’s officially killing it again after going 2 for 5 with a homer yesterday. Cheng is now slashing .275/.359/.551 with 4 homers, 7 steals, and a 19%/11.4% K%/BB% in 18 games at the age appropriate High-A. His power is ticking up this year which he combines with plus speed and a good feel to hit. He also plays a solid SS, which could get his bat on the field. He’s still more of a deeper league pickup, but he’s one to keep your eye on at least.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 433 APRIL DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 324 APRIL PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (4/28/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG! 
-PREDICTING THE 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECTS RANKS
-7 EARLY SEASON DYNASTY STRATEGIES AND THOUGHTS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

3/6/23 Spring Dynasty Baseball Rundown

I do these Dynasty Baseball Rundowns all year, mostly on the Patreon, but also a few times a month here on the Brick Wall. Here is the 3/6/23 Spring Dynasty Baseball Rundown:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE & EARLY ACCESS CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 1,000 2023 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-TOP 500 2023 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKS
-TOP 109 2023 FYPD RANKINGS w/ Strategy & Target Guide
-OBP TOP 500 2023 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-PTS/6+CAT/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 500 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-POSTION BY POSITION TARGET/SLEEPER/UNDERRATED SERIES
-ALL-IN-ONE RANKINGS SPREADSHEET
-PREDICTING THE 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECTS RANKS

Andrew Painter PHI, RHP, 19.5 – The pitching prospect went pitching prospect. Painter felt elbow tenderness following his Wednesday spring debut and we are now awaiting an update. This is like when lion and tiger tamers get attacked by the big cats. You know what you’re getting into when owning a pitching prospect. I grabbed Painter in a Mock First Year Player Draft last off-season for Baseball Prospectus and wrote, “My plan is to sell him when he hits his peak on prospect lists, and before he goes all Forrest Whitley on us at Triple-A.” It brings me no joy to have seen the future. It’s a gift and a curse.

Forrest Whitley HOU, RHP, 25.7 – Speaking of the Ghost of Christmas Future, some of Whitley’s control problems popped back up in his 2nd spring outing, going 2 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, 1 HB (hit batter) and a 1/1 K/BB. He got hit up for 4 hits and 2 ER in his first 2 inning outing. He still has huge stuff, but after getting crushed at Triple-A in 2022, he has a lot to prove to regain his once elite pitching prospect status. Let’s hope this truly isn’t a window into Painter’s future, and we hear today that it is no big deal.

Mike Moustakas COL, 3B/1B, 34.6 – The Rockies went Rockies. They just can’t help themselves. They signed the washed up vet so he can block three solid prospects in Elehuris Montero, Nolan Jones, and Michael Toglia. You know what you’re getting into when you own non elite Rockies prospects. At least they seem to be rolling out the red carpet for Ezequiel Tovar (.912 OPS in 17 PA).

Kodai Senga NYM, RHP, 30.2 – Senga made his much anticipated debut and went 2 IP with 1 hit, 1 ER, and a 2/2 K/BB. The fastball averaged 97 MPH, but it only put up a 10% whiff% on 10 swings, and got hit up with a 93 MPH EV against. He also struggled to find his control in the first inning. The sweeper, cutter, and forkball were all working, and here is an overlay of the fastball/forkball combo which shows how much of a nightmare it will be to face this guy. Overall, it was an impressive first outing which clearly showed off his upside. The stuff is legit.

Riley Greene DET, OF, 22.6 – Greene’s crushing the ball this spring, going 1 for 3 with a 109.5 MPH lineout off Tyler Mahle and a 106.5 MPH double off Pablo Lopez. He also destroyed a 417 foot opposite field homer on Friday. He now has a 1.077 OPS in 13 PA. All signs are pointing towards a big year 2, especially with Detroit bringing the fences in. He’s a buy coming off his decent but unspectacular rookie season.

Jarred Kelenic SEA, OF, 23.9 – Kelenic hit a truly jaw dropping homer to deeeeeeeeepppppp centerfield off an elite pitcher (Devin Williams). I love the dingers where the outfielders barely even move because it’s so obvious. He went 2 for 3 on the day and now has a 1.529 OPS with 4 homers in 17 PA. The 5/0 K/BB still isn’t great, and we’ve seen him destroy Spring the past 2 years, so it’s hard to really buy back in. But at the same time, giving up on a formerly elite prospect at 23 years old seems too harsh. His speed, or lack thereof with a below average 27.2 ft/sec sprint last year is another reason for the rankings drop. A low BA slugger seems to be a reasonable outcome for him, but the upside we hoped for as a prospect is likely wishful thinking.

Jose Miranda MIN, 3B/1B, 24.9 – Miranda went deep twice off a pair of mediocre at best lefties. We know he can mash lefties, it’s vs. righties that I’m slightly concerned about. He’s not a good defensive player, and Minnesota is building up some enviable infield depth throughout their organization. It wouldn’t be surprising if he sits often vs. righties in the not too distant future. It’s why I can’t go higher than 247th overall on him in my 2023 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings. I would tread a little carefully here.

Trevor Rogers MIA, LHP, 25.3 – Rogers looked sharp again in his 2nd spring outing, going 3 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 2/0 K/BB. I already warned about completely writing him off, and his strong start to spring makes me even more comfortable about buying a bounce back. I’m buying low coming off the classic Sophomore slump in 2022.

Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.2 – Dominguez scooped a pitch out of the dirt for his 2nd spring bomb and now has a 1.417 OPS in 14 PA. The level of competition he’s faced is only about Double-A quality, but he only needs to beat up on Double-A quality pitching this year for his stock to soar. You guys already know I’ve been shouting from the rooftops all off-season that he’s getting underrated, and his huge spring just solidifies that stance.

Oswaldo Cabrera NYY, 2B/SS/OF, 24.1 – Cabrera went deep as well, and his came off none other than Charlie Morton on a fastball that caught too much of the plate. It’s his 2nd and he now has a .980 OPS in 18 PA. He’s locking in his super utility role at the very least, and he could easily overtake Hicks for the starting LF job at any point.

Orelvis Martinez TOR, SS, 21.4 – Martinez crushed a 104.6 MPH dinger for his first of the spring, showing off his easy plus power with a beautiful righty swing. While other 20 year olds were beating up on lower minors pitching, he was thrown into the fire at Double-A and drilled 30 homers. The BA was low and the plate approach was rough, but you have to take the advanced level of competition into account. He’s in for a big year his 2nd go around in the upper minors, and you’ll regret selling too low on him this off-season. I’m buying the value dip.

Jacob Melton HOU, OF, 22.7 – Melton continues to quietly produce in his limited opportunities, going 1 for 1 with a walk yesterday and now has a 1.357 OPS with a 3/1 K/BB in 8 PA. He utterly destroyed the Pac 12 in 2021-22, and then he crushed Single-A in his pro debut. Now he’s crushing Spring pitching. He ranked 32nd overall on my 2023 Top 110 FYPD Rankings, and is a great college upside bat to target. The K rates have been on the high side everywhere he’s been, so there is some risk too.

Kris Bryant COL, OF, 31.3 – Bryant is putting any and all injury concerns to rest with a monster spring. He crushed a 109 MPH, 425 foot homer off Drew Smyly for his 3rd of the spring. He has a 1.512 OPS in 14 PA. There is no guarantee he stays healthy all year, which is the where the risk comes in, but if he does, there is a chance he blows up hitting in Coors.

Paul Sewald SEA, Closer Committee, 32.10 – 1 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 1/0 K/BB. Sewald looked healthy out there in his first outing coming off some minor heel and elbow surgeries this off-season. He has at least a share of the closer job, and as the incumbent veteran, I lean towards him having the lion’s share of the job.

Nick Lodolo CIN, LHP, 25.2 – Lodolo looked sharp in his 2nd outing, going 3 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 4/1 K/BB. He was only going about 75% with his velocity down 2.2 MPH to 92.2 MPH, but against Oakland’s embarrassing roster, 75% is all you need.

Taj Bradley TBR, RHP, 22.0 – 1 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 1/0 K/BB. Bradley’s outing was on Saturday, but it was too impressive not to mention especially with so many prospect lists starting to fade him. The fastball sat 97.1 MPH, and here is a look at a truly devastating changeup (which Statcast classifies as a sinker). The cutter dominated too. The stuff is filthy and he combines that with plus control. If he’s not an elite pitching prospect, he’s near elite, and I’m not sure why his hype tailed off this off-season. Don’t make that same mistake yourself.

Samad Taylor KCR, 2B/OF, 24.9 – Taylor got ahold of his first homer, and is having a nice spring with a 1.286 OPS and 2 steals in 14 PA. It’s nice to see coming off a terrible AFL performance (.555 OPS in 76 PA). He has a fantasy friendly profile and he can play all over the field. I don’t think he’s first up to get an opportunity in KC, but he will likely get his shot at some point during the season due to injury or underperformance, and he’s well worth a pick up at that point. He’s the type you keep an eye on.

Dominic Smith WAS, 1B, 27.9 – Smith is starting to find his rhythm, ripping his first spring homer on Saturday, and going 2 for 2 with a double and a walk yesterday. He now has a 1.136 OPS with a 1/2 K/BB in 14 PA. He definitely looks a little sleeker and is better shape out there to me. The upside might not be huge in a terrible lineup and with a line drive approach, but it certainly seems a bounce back is coming from his terrible 2021-2022. And even in 2021-22 he underperformed his underlying numbers, so a luck bounce back is due is as well.

Jo Adell LAA, OF, 24.0 – 0 for 3 with 2 K’s and is 0 for 11 with 8 K’s in his last 4 games as he sinks further and further into the abyss …

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE & EARLY ACCESS CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 1,000 2023 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-TOP 500 2023 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKS
-TOP 109 2023 FYPD RANKINGS w/ Strategy & Target Guide
-OBP TOP 500 2023 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-PTS/6+CAT/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 500 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-POSTION BY POSITION TARGET/SLEEPER/UNDERRATED SERIES
-ALL-IN-ONE RANKINGS SPREADSHEET
-PREDICTING THE 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECTS RANKS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 500 Prospects Rankings for 2023 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Leagues

It’s Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings Week over on the Patreon, and we kick it off today with the Top 500 Prospects Rankings for 2023 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Leagues. The Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings will drop tomorrow at the earliest, and Monday at the very, very latest. These lists will be released here on Imaginary Brick Wall in mid to late March. Here is the Top 500 Prospects Rankings for 2023 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Leagues:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 1,000 2023 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 109 2023 FYPD RANKINGS w/ Strategy & Target Guide
-All-In-One Rankings Spreadsheet
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: Top 305 SP//Top 282 OF//Top 151 SS//Top 115 3B//Top 105 2B//Top 95 1B//TOP 68 C//Top 64 RP
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-DYNASTY TEAM REPORTS FOR EVERY TEAM (Top 10+ Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)
-UPCOMING: Position by Position Target Series, Top 600 OBP Rankings, Top 600 Points/6+Cats/OPS “Universal” Rankings, Predicting the 2024 Top 50 Prospects Rankings that doubles as a Bold Predictions article, and much more

1) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS/3B, 21.9 – Nothing makes me more comfortable about a prospect than one who gets called up to the majors and immediately puts up elite exit velocity numbers. Henderson smacked the crap outta the ball to the tune of a 92.4/98.1 MPH AVG/FB EV in 132 MLB PA. That would almost be enough for me to love love a player on it’s own, a la Oneil Cruz, but Henderson does just about everything else well too. His hit tool improved majorly this year, dropping his K% from 30.1% in 2021 in mostly the lower minors, to 23.1% in 2022 in the upper minors. The improvements transferred to the majors with a very reasonable 26.6% whiff% and 25.8% K%. He’s put up high walk rates his entire career and he’s also very fast with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed. He’s almost a flawless prospect. I say “almost,” because he’s struggled vs. lefties in his career, but he’s still very young, so improvement is almost certainly coming, and it’s also a testament to how badly he decimates righties. 2023 Projection: 82/25/85/.262/.347/.473/14 Prime Projection: 106/32/102/.278/.383/.518/16

2) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.7 – Gunnar vs. Carroll is like Witt vs. Julio all over again. Julio pulled into the clear lead this year, but you were happy with either and their values could swing back and forth their entire careers. Gunnar and Carroll are on that same path. Arizona pushed Carroll all the way up to Double-A to start the year and he responded with pure across the board domination (166 wRC+ with 20 steals in 58 games). Triple-A didn’t slow him down much at all (135 wRC+ with 11 steals in 33 games), and then last but certainly not least, he kept it going in the majors, slashing .260/.330/.500 with 4 steals, 2 homers, and a 27%/7% K%/BB% in 32 games. He’s the fastest man in baseball with a 30.7 ft/sec sprint speed. His 85.8 MPH EV and .293 xwOBA isn’t optimal, and it’s the reason I have Gunnar as the #1 prospect in baseball, but I wouldn’t harp on that too much considering the guy literally had only 42 professional games under his belt coming into this year. Carroll is setting up to be an elite fantasy player. 2023 Projection: 81/18/65/.256/.332/.430/24 Prime Projection: 103/23/82/.276/.362/.474/33

3) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.1 – Chourio is on that Acuna/Tatis superstar path, where they didn’t necessarily put up elite plate approach numbers on the come up, but they were so young for the level and the talent is so huge it doesn’t really matter. Chourio had a generational type season, making it all the way to Double-A as an 18 year old to close out the year. Milwaukee knew they had something special, skipping him right over stateside rookie ball, and they were proven right with him destroying Single-A with a 160 wRC+. He then went to High-A and actually improved his K% with it dropping 6.2 percentage points to 21.8%. He got eaten up in 6 games at Double-A with a 42.3% K%, but I wouldn’t even blink an eye at that. He’s an electric ballplayer with a lightning quick, powerful swing to go along with at least plus speed. Now is the time in a superstar’s career where dynasty mistakes are made. Don’t sell Chourio for anything less than an elite return. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 98/29/96/.276/.351/.502/16

4) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.3 – Elly De La Cruz might still be a high risk, high reward prospect, but in 2022 the risk got a whole lot less, and the reward got a whole lot more. He put up one of the those stupid good seasons in the minors, slashing .304/.359/.586 with 28 homers, 47 steals, and a 30.8%/7.8% K%/BB% in 120 games split between High-A and Double-A. He ripped up both levels, and most importantly, he didn’t let his K% skyrocket at Double-A. He’s currently playing in the pitcher’s haven Dominican Winter League, which is a grown man’s league (he’s about 8 years younger than average), and it’s great sign that he’s running a 26.7%/15.8% K%/BB% in 101 PA. It sure seems like he will be able to continue to improve the plate approach rather than it going in the opposite direction. The numbers he can potentially put up at Great American Ballpark are scary. 2023 Projection: 32/11/35/.232/.294/.433/12 Prime Projection: 87/30/98/.250/.331/.503/30

5) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 21.11 – Volpe got off to a rough start at Double-A with a .647 OPS and 24% K% in his first 37 games, but he came alive after that, slashing .286/.374/.536 with 13 homers, 26 steals, and a 14.4%/10.7% K%/BB% in 72 games. He does it all with a mature plate approach, plus game power, and plus stolen base ability. Despite the 17.7% K% at Double-A on the season, he still hit only .251 because of an extreme 56.9% flyball percentage. If the balls stay dead, it could be an issue because he isn’t a huge raw power guy at 5’11”, 180 pounds. He also struggled when he got the call to Triple-A with his K% spiking to 30.3%, and putting up a 91 wRC+ in 22 games. The profile isn’t flawless, but he has a super fantasy friendly skillset, and he was a 21 year old in the upper minors, so further refinement is surely coming. 2023 Projection: 38/10/35/.236/.316/.421/12 Prime Projection: 89/26/88/.267/.341/.473/21

6) Jordan Walker STL, 3B/OF, 20.11 – Nobody smashes the ball as hard as the 6’5”, 220 pound Walker. One thing we don’t have to worry about is him getting to the majors and putting up like an 84 MPH EV. He’s gonna hit it hard. He was a 20 year old at Double-A and ripped 19 homers with 31 doubles in 119 games, good for a 128 wRC+. He then wrecked the AFL with 5 homers, 6 doubles, and a .925 OPS in 21 games. He has some swing and miss in his game, but it’s far from the danger zone with a 21.6%/10.8% K%/BB%, and he has plus speed with 22 steals, although considering his size, you might not want to count on him majorly in that category. He started to transition to the OF, which gives him a path to playing time with Arenado locked in at 3B. 2023 Projection: 42/12/47/.251/.326/.461/7 Prime Projection: 92/33/105/.267/.346/.513/12

7) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 20.8 – Lawlar left everyone from his 2021 FYPD class in the dust in 2022. He slashed .303/.401/.509 with 16 homers, 39 steals, and a 25.1%/12.4% K%/BB% in 100 games split between 3 levels (A, A+, AA). He only had a 65 wRC+ in 20 games at Double-A but he jacked 4 homers and his plate approach didn’t completely collapse or anything (28.9%/10.3%). It was impressive he made it all the way to Double-A at all. He then destroyed the AFL with a .997 OPS in 11 games. He has a smooth and simple righty swing that is geared for power and average to go along with plus speed. He’s an elite prospect. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 92/24/86/.270/.348/.470/26

8) James Wood WAS, OF, 20.6 – Wood was one of my top 2022 FYPD targets and I was able to scoop him in my 18 team First Year Player Draft that I broke down last off-season on Patreon. He surpassed even my expectations as he played like a man amongst boys at 6’7”, 240 pounds, slashing .313/.420/.536 with 12 homers, 20 steals, and a 21.6%/14.4% K%/BB% in 76 games at Single-A. He absolutely smashes the ball and he proved his hit tool isn’t a major red flag, to say the least, it might actually be an asset. Wood is a unicorn athlete in the mold of an Aaron Judge and Oneil Cruz. He’s in the “untouchable” category for me. I’m not trading him. ETA: 2024/25 Prime Projection: 88/28/93/.262/.355/.513/14

9) Miguel Vargas LAD, 3B, 23.4 – Vargas made his MLB debut in 2022 and while he only put up a .455 OPS in 50 PA, there is nothing I love more than seeing rookies hit the ball hard. He had a well above average 89.7/94.1 MPH AVG/FB EV. He’s also much faster than advertised with a 29.3 ft/sec sprint speed which in the top 6% of the league. He had no trouble lifting the ball with a 25.7 degree launch angle and has no swing and miss issues with an average 24.3% whiff%. His elite plate approach at Triple-A (14.6%/13.7% K%/BB%) shows better days are likely ahead there too. Speaking of Triple-A, he slashed .304/.304/.511 with 17 homers and 16 steals in 113 games. He’s currently the favorite to be LA’s starting 3B in 2023, and the numbers indicate this guy has star potential. 2023 Projection: 72/21/75/.258/.327/.445/11 Prime Projection: 93/27/87/.272/.345/.483/15

10) Zac Veen COL, OF, 21.4 – It’s a mistake to think more power isn’t coming for Veen. And maybe a lot more. He’s a skinny 6’4” with an explosive lefty swing that is a thing of beauty. He’s guaranteed to put up legit power numbers when he grows into his frame. It reminds me of what I predicted in February 2022 about my #9 prospect, Miguel Vargas, when people were fading him because of his low EV numbers in my Predicting the 2023 Top 50 Dynasty Baseball Prospects: “Vargas’ exit velocity numbers will increase, and the hardhit data will catch up to the surface power numbers, rather than the other way around. I’m hesitant to cap a young prospects power potential just because they don’t put up grown man exit velocities in the minors. It’s almost like people forgot power is often the last thing to come for prospects, especially ones who don’t sell out for it and have really strong contact numbers and plate approaches.” Vargas EV numbers looked damn good in his MLB debut this year. The power is coming for Veen too, and when it does, it will be combined with plus speed and a strong plate approach. That is star potential playing at Coors Field. He did struggle in his callup to Double-A (42 wRC+ with a 29.8% K% in 34 games) after handling his business at High-A (126 wRC+ with a 22.5%/12.% K%/BB% and 50 steals in 92 games), but a ton of super talented 20 year olds struggled considerably at Double-A this year, so I wouldn’t let it completely tank your opinion of him. There is still more work to be done, but I’m willing to stay patient for it, and it creates a buying opportunity this off-season that will likely disappear very quickly into 2023. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 93/28/91/.273/.345/.492/17

11) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.2 – It felt like everyone was just waiting for Dominguez to fail, the ole build em up so we can tear em down, but Dominguez refused to blink. He’s now officially living up to the hype with a big 2022, slashing .273/.376/.461 with 16 homers, 37 steals, and a 24.2%/13.6% K%/BB% in 120 games mostly at Single-A and High-A. He actually performed better at High-A with a 146 wRC+ and 18.5% K%, and he even made it Double-A for 5 games and wasn’t overmatched with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 5/3 K/BB (despite a .467 OPS). His tools are still big and back up the numbers with plus speed and plus power. If he keeps this up at Double-A as a 20 year old, he’ll be in the mix for #1 fantasy prospect in the game very quickly into 2023. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 88/28/93/.261/.345/.491/18

12) Druw Jones ARI, OF, 19.4 – Selected 2nd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Jones has that classic tall and projectable build that screams upside, and he has elite bloodlines with Andruw Jones being his father. He has near elite speed (6.31 60 yard dash) and truly elite bat speed (99.42 percentile-besting some marks put up by bat speed monster Harry Ford last year). His power has also exploded this year, with him launching some homers that blew up on Twitter (Will Hoefer). He hurt his shoulder during BP before he was able to debut and underwent surgery to repair it, but I dropped Lawlar from the #1 slot in my first year player draft rankings last year after his shoulder injury, and I’m not making the same mistake with Jones ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 93/30/104/.274/.355/.515/20

13) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.4 – Baseball is starting to feel like it is a hereditary monarchy, where all star games are passed down based on bloodlines like it’s the 1300’s. Jackson is the son of Matt, commander of the Armies of the North, General of the Felix Legions and loyal servant to the true emperor, Marcus Aurelius. Father to a murdered son. Husband to a murdered wife. And I will have my vengeance, in this life or the ne … my bad, lost myself there 🙂 … Like many plus bloodline kids, Jackson is an advanced hitter, and he combines that with plus athleticism and a plus power/speed combo. He truly wields the bat like it’s a samurai sword, gracefully killing the ball with a smooth and powerful lefty swing. He stepped right into pro ball and was far too advanced for rookie ball (220 wRC+ with a 6.1%/30.3% K%/BB% in 8 rookie ball games) before performing well in 12 games at Single-A (130 wRC+ with a 17.5%/26.3% K%/BB%). Druw Jones and Holliday are in a tier of their own on my First Year Player Draft Rankings. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 96/25/88/.278/.357/.491/14

14) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 23.5 – Rodriguez is my #1 pitching prospect in baseball and is a good bet to break camp with the team. He really shouldn’t be considered a prospect anymore. He should have graduated. But he did what pitching prospects do and missed 3 months with a lat strain. He was a bit rusty when he returned in September with a 4.12 ERA and 29/14 K/BB in 19.2 IP. He had a 2.09 ERA with a 80/14 K/BB in 56 IP at Triple-A before going down with the injury. When completely healthy he has plus control of a devastating 4 pitch mix, all of which have the potential to be at least plus. It’s true ace upside.  2023 Projection: 10/3.73/1.22/161 in 150 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.15/1.05/240 in 200 IP

15) Andrew Painter PHI, RHP, 19.5 – In a Mock First Year Player Draft last off-season for Baseball Prospectus, I drafted Andrew Painter 21st overall and wrote, “I generally lean toward hitting prospects in dynasty, but I’m not afraid to take a shot on a couple of pitchers. Painter is a big dude who checks a lot of boxes. My plan is to sell him when he hits his peak on prospect lists, and before he goes all Forrest Whitley on us at Triple-A” … but now that Painter has hit his peak on prospect lists, it’s so damn hard to sell. It’s so easy to fall in love with pitching prospects, but some do actually stay healthy and pan out, right? Painter seems like he is going to be one of those that do. He had a silly pitching line of 1.56/0.89/155/25 in 103.2 IP spread across 3 levels (A, A+, AA). He’s 6’7”, 215 pounds with plus control of an upper 90’s fastball, plus slider, potentially plus change, and an average curve. He just seems can’t miss … but if he does miss, my 2021/22 off-season self will just be shaking his head and laughing at me. 2023 Projection: 4/3.79/1.24/63 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.18/1.06/235 in 200 IP

16) Eury Perez MIA, RHP, 20.0 – Perez is a tall drink of water at 6’8”, 220 pounds (interestingly, or not so interestingly, “tall drink of water” was originally used as a derogatory term for a flavorless weakling, but mysteriously evolved into a compliment in the mid 1900’s), and he uses that frame to fire a mid to upper 90’s fastball with an easy, athletic delivery. He combines that with 3 potentially plus secondaries in his changeup, curve, and slider, to go along with plus control. It’s a flawless profile. The production is there too with a 34.1%/8.1% K%/BB% in 75 IP as a 19 year old at Double-A. A rough patch at the end of July (10.64 ERA in 11 IP) marred his end of season ERA at the level (4.08), and it resulted in him hitting the IL with a shoulder issue that kept him out until mid September. It’s a reminder of how risky all pitching prospects are, no matter how can’t miss they seem. 2023 Projection: 3/3.85/1.23/47 in 45 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.26/1.08/210 in 180 IP

17) Ricky Tiedemann TOR, LHP, 20.8 – Tiedemann checks almost every box for a potential young ace. He has prototypical size at 6’4”, 220 pounds, with a nearly side arm lefty delivery that he uses to fire a mid 90’s fastball and 2 devastating secondaries in his slider and change. Minor league hitters had no chance. He put up a pitching line of 2.17/0.86/117/29 in 78.2 IP split across 3 levels (A, A+, AA). Maybe the only quibble is that he doesn’t have pinpoint control, but it’s not an issue or anything. He’s the top lefty pitching prospect in the game, and considering Toronto’s relatively depleted organizational pitching depth, don’t be surprised if he gets a ton of MLB innings in 2023.. 2023 Projection: 3/3.88/1.29/54 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.31/1.11/220 in 190 IP

18) Shane Baz TBR, RHP, 23.10 – Baz underwent Tommy John surgery in late September and will miss all of 2023. His elbow problems started in Spring when he underwent arthroscopic surgery. He was able to make it back for a month in June-July, and the stuff was still huge, but he eventually succumbed to the Tommy John. Like Buehler, I would optimally wait until next off-season to target him, but if you’re a rebuilding team he’s a great target. 2023 Projection: OUT Prime Projection: 13/3.38/1.09/198 in 170 IP

19) Francisco Alvarez NYM, C, 21.4 – Alvarez is a 5’10”, 233 pound ball of muscle who walloped 27 homers in 112 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He then got a cup of coffee, or more like a sip of coffee in the majors and it took him only 14 PA to get his first MLB dinger. He had a 101.5 MPH FB/LD EV in that obviously very small sample, but it drives home the point that Alvarez has near elite power potential, especially for a catcher. He has some swing and miss in his game (24.8% K%), but he’s an OBP machine with a 14.1% BB%. Adley is the darling of the catcher world right now, but Alvarez’s superior over the fence power could easily make him the more valuable catcher not too far into the future. The Mets starting catcher job is wide open for the taking at the moment, but it seems they want him to get more defensive seasoning before handing the reins over to him. 2023 Projection: 47/20/61/.240/.331/.457/2 Prime Projection: 84/33/96/.254/.361/.520/3

20) Daniel Espino CLE, RHP, 22.3 – Espino was on his way to an insane season before falling off the face of the earth. He had a 2.45 ERA with a 35/4 K/BB in 18.1 IP at Double-A in April and then he never pitched again. It started as a knee issue and then turned into a shoulder issue too. Cleveland has kept the injury information very close to the vest so it’s unclear how serious the injuries are, but it was obviously serious enough that it ended his season. The stuff is so nasty with a 5 pitch mix led by an upper 90’s fastball and plus slider, that I would hesitate to sell low on him based on the mysterious injury risk. He has the upside to be a true fantasy ace and he’s knocking on the door of the bigs. Give me all the risk. 2023 Projection: 3/3.83/1.30/65 in 60 IP Prime Projection:  13/3.41/1.19/195 in 165 IP

21) Ezequiel Tovar COL, SS, 21.8 – In yet another testament to Colorado’s odd prospect developmental strategy, to put it nicely, Tovar went down with a hip/groin injury on June 29th at Double-A, and Colorado decided it would be best to have him return directly to Triple-A on September 15th before rushing him to the majors after just 5 games at that level. It’s almost as if they had a preset plan for Tovar’s season which they didn’t adjust at all based on what was actually happening. Regardless, Tovar is a good enough prospect to overcome Colorado’s brain trust. He’s not the type to jump off the screen, but he has a plus hit tool with developing power and base stealing skills. He slashed .319/.387/.540 with 14 homers, 17 steals, and a 66/27 K/BB in 71 games at mostly Double-A. I’m not sure the power/speed numbers will pop as much in the majors, but Coors should juice his best skill, batting average, and the SS job is his for the taking. 2023 Projection: 72/16/64/.261/.317/.402/13 Prime Projection: 86/22/71/.278/.332/.434/15

22) Kyle Manzardo TBR, 1B, 22.9 – I nicknamed Manzardo “Italian Lunch” in my in-season Dynasty Rundowns for a reason, because if you liked Italian Breakfast (Vinnie P), you’re going to love the next Italian meal (Manzardo). Like Vinnie, Manzardo has an elite plate approach with plus power. He slashed .327/.426/.617 with 22 homers and a 65/59 K/BB in 93 games split between High-A and Double-A. He barely dropped off at Double-A with 9 homers and a 148 wRC+ in 30 games. His path to playing time isn’t crystal clear with Tampa’s never ending depth (Aranda, Mead, and more), but that’s just the game with Tampa. If he produces when he gets his shot, they will find a spot for him. 2023 Projection: 19/5/23/.268/.334/.447/0 Prime Projection: 86/27/91/.281/.363/.488/1

23) Royce Lewis MIN, SS, 23.10 – I named Lewis a to player target last off-season, imploring you to buy the dip coming off a torn ACL. Now it’s deja vu all over again with Lewis once again down with a torn ACL, and once again I’m imploring you to buy the dip. He was in the midst of fully living up to his 1st pick overall hype, majorly improving his plate approach with a 20.9%/11.8% K%/BB% in 34 games at Triple-A. His power took a step forward as well with 5 homers and he maintained his plus speed with 12 steals. He quickly got called up to the majors and impressed with a 90.7 MPH EV, 12.2% K% and 146 wRC+ in 41 PA before going down with the injury in late May. I can’t deny that a 2nd torn ACL in the same knee is concerning, but Lewis has youth, and athleticism to spare on his side. He was blowing up to such a high level that I think downgrading Lewis too much based on the injury risk would be a mistake. 2023 Projection: 33/8/28/.258/.319/.423/5 Prime Projection: 84/24/82/.273/.335/.463/13

24) Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 23.3 – Casas is an OBP machine. He has a career .374 OBP in 284 minor league games and then he put up a .358 OBP with a 20% BB% in his 95 PA MLB debut. In an OBP league, he has a chance to be a real difference maker. It’s not so cut and dry in a 5×5 BA league. He’s never hit for high BA’s in the minors (career .269 BA) and he hit .197 (.193 xBA) in the majors. He’s a huge man with huge raw power, but he’s never really put up monster home run totals (11 homers in 72 Triple-A games). He doesn’t sell out for power. Boston’s hitter’s park should juice up all of his numbers, and I like Casas a lot regardless of league type, but I might curb your enthusiasm a little bit in a 5×5 BA. 2023 Projection: 78/24/81/.249/.334/.462/1 Prime Projection: 89/29/94/.263/.368/.510/2

25) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 21.0 – Armstrong had the power breakout I predicted in my Predicting the 2023 Top 50 Dynasty Baseball Prospects from last off-season, writing, “Armstrong will not only pick up where he left off before he underwent shoulder surgery, he will show power potential many people doubt he has.” He ended up jacking 16 homers in 101 games split between Single-A and High-A. His speed wasn’t undersold either as he nabbed 32 bases. His plus CF defense will get him on the field, he has a good feel to hit, plus speed, and developing power. That is a beautiful fantasy profile. He’s not a finished product as his plate approach took a step back at the more age appropriate High-A with a mediocre 24%/4.9% K%/BB% in 63 games, but he could explode to elite prospect status if he performs in the upper minors in 2023. There is still a small buy window. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 88/18/66/.273/.335/.431/26

26) Hunter Brown HOU, RHP, 24.8 – Houston still has a full rotation even with Verlander leaving, but Brown will inevitably get his shot eventually, and I have no doubt he will thrive when he does. He throws a 96.6 MPH fastball that put up a .167 BA against in his 20.1 IP MLB debut, to go along with a plus slider (.246 xwOBA) and curve (.167 xwOBA). It led to a 0.89 ERA and 22/7 K/BB. He dominated at Triple-A too with a 2.55 ERA and 31.5%/10.6% K%/BB% in 106 IP. He’s likely a mid rotation fantasy starter as is, and if he can improve his control and/or his splitter/changeup, he has legitimate top of the rotation upside, especially in Houston’s pitching factory. He’s a major off-season target as he doesn’t get the hype that other top pitching prospects receive. 2023 Projection: 6/3.85/1.28/95 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.55/1.23/190 in 175 IP

27) Bobby Miller LAD, RHP, 24.0 – Miller is 6’5”, 220 pounds with ace level stuff. He throws a fastball that sits in the upper 90’s, a filthy upper 80’s MPH changeup that gets about 10 MPH separation from the fastball, and 2 plus breaking balls in his slider and curve. His 4.25 ERA in 112.1 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A was surprisingly underwhelming considering the stuff. Part of it is because his fastball is relatively hittable, and while he doesn’t have major control problems, he’s no Greg Maddux. The other part of it is likely bad luck as his 30.5%/8.1% K%/BB% and 3.47 xFIP at Double-A looks much better than the 4.45 ERA he put up at the level. He has ace upside, and with the Dodgers’ pitching development prowess, mid-rotation might be his floor. 2023 Projection: 5/3.85/1.26/82 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.48/1.18/202 in 180 IP

28) Curtis Mead TBR, 3B, 22.6 – Mead is a safe bet to be a very good MLB hitter, but there are a few snafu’s keeping me from going too crazy for him. He’s not a good defensive player, which could be a problem with Tampa’s never ending depth. He’s not a huge base stealer and he has a line drive approach, so he might not put up huge power/speed numbers. His season also ended with a sore elbow, which I wouldn’t be too concerned about, but it is one more thing to tack on. I don’t mean to sound the alarm bells, because I do like him a ton. He hits the ball very hard, he has an excellent plate approach with an 18.1%/10.9% K%/BB%, and he crushed the upper minors with a 146 wRC+ at Double-A and 129 wRC+ at Triple-A. Carlos Correa over the last few years could be a good ceiling comp offensively. 2023 Projection: 26/7/29/.265/.327/.433/2 Prime Projection: 91/24/86/.282/.351/.473/5

29) Noelvi Marte CIN, SS, 21.5 – There is nothing scouts hate more than when players start to fill out before they want them to fill out, and I think scouts overestimate their ability to predict when players will lose their athleticism in general. Having said that, Marte filled out in 2022 and he’s definitely starting to look more like a thick, power hitting corner infielder than a wiry strong SS. It’s going to hurt his ranking on real life lists, but I would be careful about discounting him too much for fantasy. He has big time power (19 homers in 115 games at High-A), speed (23 steals), and while his hit tool isn’t great, he has a strong plate approach (20.1%/11.3% K%/BB%). He’s not a finished product, and I wouldn’t expect huge steal totals, but he can be mighty dangerous in the friendly confines of Great American Ballpark. He wouldn’t be untouchable for me (I recently traded him away in my 12 teamer for Cristian Javier), but I would need a very exciting win now piece to deal him. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 84/27/89/.263/.338/.484/12

30) Marcelo Mayer BOS, SS, 20.4 – One look at Mayer’s controlled and explosive lefty swing really says it all. He used that swing to dominate Single-A in every facet of the game (150 wRC+ in 66 games), and then mostly did the same to close out the season at High-A (127 wRC+ in 25 games). His 25.2% K% is maybe slightly higher than you would like to see, but he mitigated that with a 16% BB%, and he was also a perfect 17 for 17 on the bases. He’s not a burner, but with the new stolen bases rules coming to the majors, maybe he’ll be able to nab more than we are expecting. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 94/25/87/.271/.363/.484/10

31) Oswald Peraza NYY, SS/2B, 22.10 – Like Volpe, Peraza started the year cold with a .583 OPS and 25.6% in his first 46 games at Triple-A before turning it around. He slashed .316/.382/.560 with 14 homers, 22 steals, and a 21.4% K% in his final 53 games at the level. He got called up to the majors in September and thrived, slashing .306/.404/.429 with 1 homer, 2 steals, and a 15.8%/10.5% K%/BB% in 57 PA. Statcast backs up the numbers with a well above average .343 xwOBA and 28.9 ft/sec sprint speed. The one red flag is his 81.6/84.0 MPH AVG/FB EV. That is quite low on 40 batted balls. It’s a small sample and he obviously has more power than that, but the power numbers he put up in the minors in 2021-22 could be misleading for what he will do in the majors. 2023 Projection: 58/14/59/.246/.303/.400/16 Prime Projection: 81/21/77/.269/.327/.441/22

32) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 20.7 – Carter was chugging along with a very good season at High-A, slashing .287/.388/.476 with 11 homers, 26 steals, and a 16.8%/13.2% K%/BB% in 100 games, and then he closed out the year with a bang at Double-A, slashing .429/.536/.714 with 1 homer, 2 steals, and a 6/5 K/BB in 6 games. His elite plate approach is made even more impressive by how  young he has been at every level he’s played at. He has plus speed, and at 6’4”, 190 pounds, he should naturally grow into more power, although his short and quick lefty swing is geared more for line drives. He could be a difference maker in OBP leagues, and in 5×5 BA he’s setting up to be a solid across the board type. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 89/20/77/.276/.365/.449/15

33) Emmanuel Rodriguez MIN, OF, 20.1 – I nicknamed Rodriguez Baby Bonds in the early season Dynasty Baseball Rundowns for a reason. He’s an OBP monster with a 28.6% BB% and .492 OBP, to go along with a plus power (9 homers) and speed (11 steals) in 49 games at Single-A. Granted he doesn’t have nearly Bonds’ hit tool with a 26.1% K%, but 3 outta 4 ain’t bad. In an OBP league, I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say he has elite upside. His season ended early when he tore his meniscus sliding into a base, but in my professional opinion a meniscus tear isn’t as bad as an ACL tear. I wouldn’t let the injury scare you off him too much. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 88/26/82/.251/.357/.485/12

34) Tink Hence STL, RHP, 20.8 – Say hello to the 2024 top pitching prospect in baseball. Hence was treated with kid gloves in 2022, never going over 4 IP, but he checked literally every other box. His stuff is straight filthy with 4 potentially plus pitches (mid 90’s fastball, curve, slider, change), he has an extremely athletic delivery with insane arm speed that reminds me a bit of Pedro Martinez, and his numbers were lights out with a pitching line of 2.16/0.96/81/15 in 52.1 IP at Single-A. He’s certainly getting plenty of hype right now, but it’s going to look like nothing compared to the hype explosion that’s coming in 2023. I was just able to nab him at 44th overall in the Toolshed Prospect Mock with other prospect writers/podcasters, so I think his price could still be relatively reasonable this off-season. He’s a buy high. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 14/3.29/1.09/205 in 180 IP

35) Kyle Harrison SFG, LHP, 21.8 – Harrison is almost guaranteed to be an impact fantasy starter because this guy is going to rack up K’s no matter what. He had a stupid 50% K% in 29 IP at High-A (1.55 ERA) and a 36.4% K% in 84 IP at Double-A (3.11 ERA) on the back of an elite fastball/slider combo from a 3 quarters lefty delivery. He mixes in a legitimate changeup as well. The only question is how high his WHIP will get on the MLB level, because his control is still knocking on the door of the danger zone with an 11.2% BB% at Double-A. It’s not so bad to get very concerned, but it’s bad enough to keep him from ascending to the true elite pitching prospect tier. From a numbers standpoint, Blake Snell is not the worst comp. 2023 Projection: 3/3.88/1.33/34 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.41/1.25/191 in 165 IP

36) Josh Jung TEX, 3B, 25.2 – Jung returned from shoulder surgery in late July and he must have been rusty because his plate approach was uncharacteristically horrific. He put up a 28.3%/3.8% K%/BB% in 23 games at Triple-A and a 38.2%/3.9% K%/BB% in 26 games in his MLB debut. It’s so out of pocket from the rest of his career. He had a 22.2%/9.1% K%/BB% in 78 games in the upper minors in 2021, so I’m inclined to cut him some slack. Shoulder injuries can sometimes sap power, but he was just fine in that category, jacking 9 homers in 31 minor league games and 5 homers in 26 MLB games. His 85.5 MPH EV and .287 xwOBA wasn’t great, but there was no guarantee he was even going to play in 2022 considering he underwent surgery in late February, so everything should look much better after a normal off-season and as he gets further away from the injury. 2023 Projection: 70/25/83/.252/.326/.462/3 Prime Projection: 84/29/91/.268/.343/.497/3

37) Brett Baty NYM, 3B, 23.5 – There is little doubt that the 6’3”, 210 pound lefty Baty is going to be a very good real life hitter. He smokes the ball with a 91.1 MPH EV and he has an excellent plate approach with a 24.8%/11.7% K%/BB%, leading to a .943 OPS in 95 games at mostly Double-A. He got called up to the majors and while he only put up a .586 OPS in 11 games, his .332 xwOBA was much better and a 19% K% is a good sign his K% isn’t going to explode. It’s a line drive approach (10 degree launch) with below average speed (26.8 ft/sec sprint), making him a very safe bet to be an impact bat, but likely without monster upside in a 5×5 BA league. He tore the UCL in his thumb in late August which required surgery, but he’ll be good to go for 2023, and with Correa not signing, the path to playing time is much more open now. 2023 Projection: 51/15/54/.253/.332/.440/2 Prime Projection: 84/25/86/.267/.349/.472/2

38) Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 23.0 – Cowser’s hit tool got exposed this year, putting up a 28.4% K% at High-A, 25.4% K% at Double-A, and 30.6% K% at Triple-A. It’s a little concerning considering that was supposed to be his best skill, but it’s not like he’s chopped liver everywhere else. He walked a ton with a 15% BB%, and he displayed an above average power/speed combo with 19 homers and 18 steals in 138 games. Even with the high strikeout rates he still put up a .278 BA. He showed more risk than optimal in 2022, but it was still a positive year overall with a .874 OPS. His strong across the board profile remains intact. 2023 Projection: 20/4/18/.248/.319/.405/4 Prime Projection: 85/20/77/.264/.343/.442/15

39) Robert Hassell WAS, OF, 21.8 – Hassell is becoming quite the divisive prospect, and it all comes down to his upside. His groundball rates were over 50% and he hit only 11 homers in 112 games split between High-A and Double-A. He’s fast, but he’s not an absolute burner, stealing only 1 bag in 27 games at Double-A (23 steals in 85 games at High-A). He has a potentially plus hit tool, and while a 19.9% K% at High-A is good, it’s not close to being elite, and it jumped to 28.7% at Double-A. He doesn’t have that one truly impressive tool. Having said that, the guy is just a damn good all around ballplayer, and there is still room to pack on muscle to his 6’2” frame. You don’t have to squint all that hard to see a future where he goes 20/20 with a good BA and high OBP hitting atop Washington’s lineup. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 87/18/72/.273/.348/.425/18

40) Taj Bradley TBR, RHP, 22.0 – Bradley is a similar pitching prospect to what Logan Gilbert and George Kirby were. He heavily relies on an at least plus, mid 90’s fastball which he has plus control over, but the secondaries aren’t really standout. He’s also not as big as Gilbert and Kirby, which I don’t like to harp on, but it does factor in. He destroyed Double-A with a 1.70 ERA and 88/18 K/BB in 74.1 IP before taking a small step back at Triple-A with a 3.66 ERA and 53/15 K/BB in 59 IP. If his secondaries take a big jump, he can be a fantasy ace, but he’s more likely to settle into that 2/3 area. 2023 Projection: 3/3.83/1.23/47 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.41/1.08/176 in 170 IP

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 1,000 2023 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS (coming tomorrow or Monday at the latest)
-TOP 109 2023 FYPD RANKINGS w/ Strategy & Target Guide
-All-In-One Rankings Spreadsheet
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: Top 305 SP//Top 282 OF//Top 151 SS//Top 115 3B//Top 105 2B//Top 95 1B//TOP 68 C//Top 64 RP
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-DYNASTY TEAM REPORTS FOR EVERY TEAM (Top 10+ Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)
-UPCOMING: Position by Position Target Series, Top 600 OBP Rankings, Top 600 Points/6+Cats/OPS “Universal” Rankings, Predicting the 2024 Top 50 Prospects Rankings that doubles as a Bold Predictions article, and much more

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (8/29/22)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (8/29/22):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT, INCLUDING:
-TOP 350 AUGUST 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 455 AUGUST 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 10 TRADE NEGOTIATION TACTICS (one of my favorite things I’ve ever written)
-MID-SEASON OBP TOP 447 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS 
-MID-SEASON POINTS/6+CATS/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 430 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 40 2023 FYPD RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

Kyle Manzardo TBR, 1B, 22.0 – Italian Lunch made quick work of the Blue Wahoos, ripping a line drive homer that made a beeline for the Truly Hard Seltzer sign hanging beyond the right field wall. I’m old enough to remember when a man choosing to drink a hard seltzer would be met with endless ridicule, but these days we can drink anything we want without being made fun of! Progress! Since being called up to Double-A he’s dominating with a 1.052 OPS and a 15.9% K%. Not missing a beat in the upper minors takes away any obstacle to flying him up the rankings. He checked in at #188 on the Updated Top 455 Dynasty Rankings that hit my Patreon last week.

Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 18.6 – Speaking of flying up the rankings, Jackson “flying up the rankings” Chourio cracked his 5th homer in 21 games at High-A (17 homers in 83 games overall) on a 1 for 2 with 0 K day. He now has a 130 wRC+ with a 20.8% K% at the level. I know some people are hesitant to go all in on an 18 year old in the lower minors, but this stage of a superstar’s career is when the biggest mistakes are made in dynasty. Don’t let a savvy manager steal him away from you for a good but not truly great win now piece this off-season.

Oswald Peraza NYY, SS, SS, 22.3 – “You never get a second chance to make a first impression.” That quote couldn’t be truer when it comes to prospects. A bad start to the season will have guys tumble down the rankings, and even they play with their hair on fire for the rest of the year, it’s like barely anyone notices. Peraza legitimately decimated a 426 foot homer that left his bat in the blink of an eye. He also tacked on a stolen base and went 4 for 7 in a doubleheader. He’s slashing .293/.361/.507 with 13 homers, 21 steals, and a 61/20 K/BB in his last 58 games at Triple-A.

Nick Lodolo CIN, LHP, 24.5 – 7 IP, 5 hits, 3 ER, 5/1 K/BB vs. Miami. The underlying numbers looked better though with his curve and change putting up a silly 77% whiff% and 50% whiff%, respectively. The Solo Lodolo man is going to have to do it by himself because Cincy has the 3rd worst defense in baseball and the home ballpark is terrible too. It definitely puts a little damper on how good I think he could be in a more neutral pitching environment, but I love him enough to overlook the negatives. He clocked in at #116 overall on the Updated Top 455 Dynasty Rankings. I’m all in on him despite the red flags that are being waved directly in front of my eyes.

Roansy Contreras PIT, RHP, 22.9 – 5 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 7/2 K/BB vs. PHI. The underlying numbers were a mixed bag with his velocity down majorly across the board, but it was working for him because he put up a 40% whiff% with a 86.4 EV against. The fastball being down almost 2 MPH to a pedestrian 94.3 MPH isn’t great to see though. I’m honestly not sure what to think here, but I’m leaning more towards the positive side.

Taj Bradley TBR, RHP, 21.7 – Bradley desperately needed a good start at Triple-A after a stretch of rough ones, and he got it yesterday, going 6 IP with 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 5/1 K/BB. His 20.6%/7.4% K%/BB% in 30 IP at the level isn’t great. He might be setting up to be more Drew Rasmussen than Shane McClanahan. I don’t even mean that as too much of a diss as I love Rasmussen.

Max Muncy LAD, 1B/2B, 31.11 – This is just a heads up that Muncy is completely healthy after an elbow injury tanked the first half on his season. He went 3 for 5 yesterday and has a 176 wRC+ with a 92.8 MPH EV in 95 August PA. He’ll probably come at a discounted price this off-season unless he really goes out of his mind the rest of the way, which is possible.

Alex Bregman HOU, 3B, 28.4 – Continuing the “just a heads up that this guy is healthy now” segment of our programming, Bregman lifted off for his 7th homer in his last 17 games. He’s fully healthy after off-season wrist surgery sapped his power earlier in the year.

Mike Trout LAA, OF, 31.0 – Trout ripped his 4th homer in 9 games since returning from that “pretty rare” back injury. Apparently the back injury wasn’t rare enough to stop Trout.

Jake McCarthy ARI, OF, 25.1 – 1 for 4 with a 104.6 MPH double off Kendal Graveman. He stole 2 bags on Saturday. He’s now slashing .291/.352/.432 with 4 homers, 12 steals, and a 20.4%/7.7% K%/BB% in 68 games. I loved taking a flier on McCarthy this off-season. I ranked him 238th on my off-season Top 500 Prospects Rankings and wrote, “McCarthy is going to have to scratch and claw for playing time, but he has a very fantasy friendly profile if he can win some. He put up an elite 30.1 ft/sec sprint speed in his MLB debut and was 29 for 33 on the bases in 85 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He hits the ball on the ground too much and showed some swing and miss this year, but if you are looking for a close to the majors option with legitimate upside, McCarthy is your guy.”

Lars Nootbaar STL, OF, 24.11 – 1 for 3 with a walk and a 355 foot dinger off Jake Odorizzi for his 9th homer in 75 games. Nootbaar has been smashing the ball with a 91.7 MPH EV and his 20.4%/14.9% K%/BB% is impressive. He’s a line drive hitter and he doesn’t run a ton, so the fantasy upside isn’t huge, but St. Louis develops underrated hitters like him like it’s their job … come to think of it, it is their job.

Matt Mervis CHC, 1B, 24.4 – McCarthy and Nootbaar both ended up being excellent older fringe types to take a shot on last off-season, and Mervis is shaping up to be that guy this off-season. He went 2 for 5 with his 6th homer in 31 games at Triple-A, and it comes with a 13.7%/9.2% K%/BB%. The first base job could be his for the taking next year.

Stone Garrett ARI, OF, 26.9 – Stone Garrett crushed a 105.8 MPH dinger off Dylan Cease for his first MLB homer. He’s been absolutely crushing the ball in his 5 game debut with a 98.8 MPH EV. This is the first time he’s playing in a week, and considering Stone Garrett sounds like the protagonist in a spy novel, I have questions as to what he’s been up to over that missing week. Playing time might be an issue while he takes down international criminals on the side, but the power is for real when he does play. And before you say being a major league baseball player and a spy is unrealistic, you should look into Moe Berg.

Henry Davis PIT, C, 22.9/Endy Rodriguez PIT, C, 22.3 – Davis has been on a rehab assignment at Single-A returning from his 2nd wrist injury and he walloped his first homer in 4 games. Endy Rodriguez has been so dominant in his absence at Double-A (3 for 4 with a double yesterday) that a catcher competition is definitely brewing. The good news is that there is plenty of at bats to go around for everyone in Pitt. Both guys can keep catcher eligibility, stay healthy, and thrive.

Logan O’Hoppe LAA, C, 22.5 – I called O’Hoppe the most underrated catcher in baseball this off-season, and he’s not underrated anymore as he absolutely unloaded on his 22nd homer of the year at Double-A. He has a 184 wRC+ in 16 games since joining LA, and the future catcher job is his for the taking.

Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 22.4 – Casas busted out the whooping stick against a side winding righty, crushing a homer out to left center on a 2 for 4 day. He has a 1.040 OPS in his last 27 games at Triple-A. I think it’s time for Casas to get his feet wet against MLB pitching.

Joey Wiemer MIL, OF, 23.5 – Just when you’re ready to give up, Wiemer pulls you back in, going 2 for 4 with his 5th homer in 22 games at Triple-A. The K% is at a not terrible 23.3% and he’s also stolen 4 bags. I’ve held strong on Wiemer towards the back of the Top 100 because despite the struggles the raw talent is just too good to completely give up on. He’s also knocking on the door of the bigs.

Angel Martinez CLE, SS, 20.7 – Martinez got called up to Double-A and he’s thriving. He went 2 for 3 with a triple and homer yesterday, and he’s now slashing .292/.357/.750 with 2 homers, 1 steal, and a 13.8%/10.3% K%/BB% in 7 games. The power ticked up this year, and he combines that with plus speed and a plus plate approach. He’s setting up to be a solid across the board contributor, and considering he’s only 20, maybe he has another gear in there too.

Mick Abel PHI, RHP, 21.0 – 2.2 IP, 5 hits, 3 ER, 2/3 K/BB at Double-A. I don’t have Abel quite on the same level as Painter (who had another good start at Double-A on Saturday), but I still like Abel a lot despite the clunker yesterday. He might be settling in more in the mid-rotation range though as he didn’t really dominate High-A either with a 4.01 ERA and 27.7%/10.2% K%/BB%.

Chase Silseth LAA, RHP, 22.3 – 6 IP, 2 hits, 2 ER, 11/1 K/BB at Double-A. Silseth has been jerked around a bit as an up and down arm, which I doubt was the best thing for his development, but I do get that sometimes the team comes first. Regardless, he’s ripped up Double-A with a 2.63 ERA and a 33.5%/8.7% K%/BB% in 65 IP. He throws a 5 pitch mix headlined by a 95.4 MPH fastball. Despite getting hit up in the majors, he’s still an exciting pitching prospect.

Will Warren NYY, RHP, 23.2/Taylor Dollard SEA, RHP, 23.6 – Warren went 6 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER, and a 5/2 K/BB at Double-A. Dollard went 6 IP with 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 5/0 K/BB at Double-A. Neither guy has the K rates to get me really excited for fantasy (19.8% and 23%, respectively), but both can definitely be solid real life pitchers. The deeper the league, the more I would like them.

Garrett Mitchell MIL, OF, 24.0 – Mitchell made his MLB debut on Sunday and went 1 for 4 with a K and 2 RBI. The K rate and GB% is what to watch for, and right now the launch angle is sitting at 26.2 degrees and the whiff% is 28.6%. It’s only one game, but it’s better than if he had a 50% whiff% with a negative 2 degree launch angle. One game down, an entire career to go.

Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 21.11 – The #1 fantasy prospect in baseball will make his MLB debut today after working over upper minors pitching all season. He’s only 5’10” and has played in favorable hitter’s environments. He’s also shown some swing and miss throughout his career. The speed is unquestioned, so the power and strikeouts will be what to watch for in this final month.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT, INCLUDING:
-TOP 350 AUGUST 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 455 AUGUST 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 10 TRADE NEGOTIATION TACTICS (one of my favorite things I’ve ever written)
-MID-SEASON OBP TOP 447 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS 
-MID-SEASON POINTS/6+CATS/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 430 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 40 2023 FYPD RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/9/22)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/9/22):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED APRIL 2022 TOP 414 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED MAY 2022 TOP 316 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

George Kirby SEA, RHP, 24.2 – Kirby made his MLB debut and went 6 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER and a 7/0 K/BB vs. Tampa. The 4-seamer dominated, sitting 95.8 MPH with a 48% whiff% on the pitch. He had just climbed to #8 overall on my Updated Top 316 Prospects Rankings over on my Patreon, writing, “He could take Brash’s spot in the rotation shortly.” Granted, you didn’t have to be Prospectdamus to see that one coming.

Royce Lewis MIN, SS, 22.10 – Lewis followed in Kirby’s footsteps, rising to #7 on the Updated Prospects List and then getting the call shortly after that. He’s 3 for 10 with a double and K in his 3 game debut, and the underlying numbers are impressive with a 91.8 MPH EV, 22.1 degree launch, and an 11.1% whiff%. He might not stay up with Correa’s injury not as bad as originally feared, but Lewis is trending towards being a fantasy star.

Manuel Margot TBR, OF, 27.6 – I’ve had Margot in the late career breakout bucket for awhile now, seeing a similar career path to Lorenzo Cain, and it might finally be happening as Margot ripped his third homer of the year to bring his season wRC+ up to 170 in 24 games. He has a career high 91.4 MPH EV, 17.3 degree launch angle, and 19.7% whiff%.

 Juan Yepez STL, 1B/3B/OF, 24.0 – Yepez smashed his first MLB homer on a 406 foot shot to the deepest part of the ballpark. He is starting his MLB career on a 5 game hit streak, and 4 of those games were multi hit games. He’s not guaranteed a full time job, but as long as he keeps hitting, they will find a way to get his bat in the lineup.

Owen Miller CLE, 1B/2B, 25.6 – Miller stays hot with his 3rd homer in 22 games. He’s handily outperforming his underlying numbers (.445 wOBA vs. .368 xwOBA), so while I think he can be a solid bat long term, I don’t think he is going to maintain anything close to this level. I would consider him a sell high candidate.

Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 21.7 – Carroll has been going bonkos all season, and he’s now going doubly bonkos with his 2nd straight 2 homer game. That’s 4 homers in his last 2 games for 9 homers on the season. Tack on 8 steals and a .326 BA and he is in the conversation for the top prospect in baseball. He checked in at #5 on my Updated Top 316 Prospects Rankings.

Zack Gelof OAK, 3B, 22.5 – Gelof lifted off twice as well for his 3rd and 4th homers in 25 games at Double-A, and both were hit the opposite way. A fan in a cartoonishly sized cowboy hat had the first homer all lined up but he botched the play. Gelof has a 123 wRC+ at the level, but a 27.6%/6.5% is a little worrisome when trying to project his production out on the MLB level.

Austin Martin MIN, OF, 23.0 – It took long enough but Martin finally got on the board, pulling a breaking ball that never really broke for his 1st homer of the year. 13.7%/12.8% K%/BB% with 14 steals in 25 games at Double-A looks great, but he’s just not doing enough damage on contact with a .337 SLG.

 Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 19.8 – Lawlar continues to separate himself from the 2021 high school SS class, going 2 for 5 with a double, homer, and 0 K’s. He’s now slashing .301/.443/.542 with 6 homers, 15 steals, and a 25.5%/16% K%/BB% in 23 games at Single-A.

Taj Bradley TBR, RHP, 21.0 – 5 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 5/0 K/BB at Double-A. Plus control of his mid 90’s fastball is his bread and butter, and the secondaries have been more refined this year. He rose to #53 overall on the Updated Prospects Rankings, one spot ahead of one of my favorite prospects, Brayan Bello.

Mick Abel PHI, RHP, 20.7 – 4 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 6/5 K/BB at High-A. Seeing all the walks coming back is not great, but it’s still been much improved overall with a 10.4% BB% in 18 IP. The stuff is filthy and he’s been a K machine with a 37.7% K%. After the top arms in the upper levels graduate, Abel should rise into elite pitching prospect territory.

Edward Cabrera MIA, RHP, 23.11 – Max Meyer is making everyone forget about Cabrera, but he did his best to make as all remember yesterday, going 5 IP with 3 hits, 0 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB. He’s still struggling with his control on the season though with a 15/8 K/BB in 13 IP. Meyer should be the next man up in Miami, but it’s not out the realm they go back to Cabrera first.

Edwin Arroyo SEA, SS, 18.7 – 2 for 5 with his 5th homer in 24 games at Single-A. He now has a 149 wRC+ with 6 steals and a 18.6%/10.6% K%/BB%. Arroyo has been out of his mind recently and is one of the top breakouts in the first month of the season. He climbed to #167 on the Updated Top 316 Prospects Rankings, and even that might not be enough.

Carson Williams TBR, SS, 18.9 – Williams is another 18 year old breaking out in full season ball, jacking his 3rd homer in 21 games and is now slashing .301/.372/.578 with 3 homers, and 7 steals. The 37.2% K% is quite high, but he’s only 18, and his swing is so damn explosive at 6’2”, 180 pounds it’s hard not to get excited.

Roberto Campos DET, OF, 18.10 – Campos crushed his first homer of the year in 25 games at Single-A, but he’s been hitting the ball really hard all year and his power isn’t in question. More importantly, the K rate has been strong with a 22.4%/7.1% K%/BB% and has been solid all year with a 108 wRC+. Now is probably the time to buy in if he’s still out there.

 Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 18.1 – The 18 year old Chourio made his season debut at Single-A last week and he’s done nothing but hit since then. He cranked his first homer yesterday and is now slashing .480/.519/.800 with 1 homer, 2 steals, and a 14.8%/7.4% K%/BB% in 6 games. I’ve ranked Chourio pretty aggressively, and the hype is about to blow up if he keeps this up. Elite prospect potential.

Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 22.2 – Make it #6 for Casas at Triple-A. I imagine that when Bobbly Dalbec looks in the mirror to brush to his teeth in the morning, he sees Casas right behind him like it’s a hacky horror movie.

Nick Yorke BOS, 2B, 20.0 – Yorke’s been finding his power stroke of late, drilling his first 2 homers of the year in his last 5 games. This one was a no doubter out to deep centerfield, showing he definitely has some raw juice in the tank. He has a 21.3% K% with a .238 BA, so the hit tool hasn’t exactly been as elite as hoped.

 Justin Foscue TEX, 2B/3B, 23.1 – Foscue has been quietly putting in work at Double-A, going 2 for 3 with a homer and 2 walks. He has a 15.9%/14.5% K%/BB% with a 145 wRC+ in 16 games at Double-A. He’s joining Josh Jung as two rock solid college bats who should produce in Texas for years to come.

Brendon Davis LAA, 3B/OF, 24.8 – 2 for 5 with his 5th homer. The surface stats haven’t been great with an 88 wRC+, but the underlying numbers look excellent with a 17.9%/12.2% K%/BB% and a 37.6% GB% in 28 games at Triple-A. He has big power at 6’4”, 185 pounds, and seeing the K rate being kept in check is big.

Blaze Alexander ARI, SS, 22.11 – Alexander is bouncing back from a down 2021, walloping 2 homers yesterday and is now slashing .322/.403/.644 with 4 homers and 3 steals in 15 games. 31.3% K% is still too high, but he’s putting himself back on the map.

Ken Waldichuk NYY, LHP, 24.3 – Waldichuk had the best start of the day, going 5 hitless innings with a 12/3 K/BB. He’s a 24 year old “crafty lefty” dominating younger competition at Double-A with a 1.14 ERA and 40/9 K/BB in 23.2 IP. I wouldn’t go crazy for him, but the guy obviously knows how to pitch.

Hayden Wesneski NYY, RHP, 24.4 – Wesneski is the 24 year old Yankees pitching prospect I prefer, and he pitched damn well himself, going 5 IP with 4 hits, 2 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB at Triple-A. He does have the big stuff and is now sitting on a 2.48 ERA with a 32/6/ K/BB in 29 IP.

Michael Burrows PIT, RHP, 22.5 – One of the most underrated pitchers in the minors continued his dominance, going 4 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB. The stuff is straight filthy and he’s rocking a 34%/6.8% K%/BB% in 26.2 IP at Double-A. He’s a must pick up in every league.

Jacob Amaya LAD, SS, 23.8 – The Amaya breakout continues, going 3 for 5 with a triple, homer, and a 1/3 K/BB in a doubleheader. Simply calling it a breakout might be an understatement because the the numbers are straight elite, slashing .351/.473/.797 with 7 homers (27.9% GB%), 2 steals, and a 13.2%/18.7% K%/BB% in 22 games at Double-A. He cracked the Updated Prospects Rankings at #200, and he just keeps on rising.

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Tampa Bay Rays 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys and talk some team specific strategy for every team to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Tampa Bay Rays 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
–A Top 100 Sneak Peek of my 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings with more early releases coming all off-season
-Dynasty Team Reports for every team (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)
–Positional Dynasty Rankings
-End of Season 2021 Top 466 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
-End of Season 2021 Top 322 Dynasty Prospects Rankings

Hitters

Wander Franco TBR, SS, 21.1 – I ranked Franco 14th overall on my 2021 Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings, writing, “the floor is so high due to that innate hitting ability that he doesn’t have the normal risks associated with prospects.” Kelenic was my #2 overall prospect, but I ranked him 52nd on the dynasty list because he simply didn’t have that elite floor. And that is exactly how it played out in 2021 with Franco putting up a 12% K% en route to a solid MLB debut, slashing .288/.347/.463 with 7 homers and 2 steals in 70 games (he also knocked out 2 homers in 4 playoff games). The underlying skills are there for a homer/steal breakout as he notched a 28.5 ft/sec sprint speed, 88.2 MPH EV and 9.7 degree launch angle. The arrow is only pointing way up from here. 2022 Projection: 101/23/83/.302/.360/.484/11  Prime Projection: 116/31/111/.320/.392/.555/13

Brandon Lowe TBR, OF/2B, 27.9 – Lowe went bonkos in the 2nd half, slashing .289/.376/.638 with 26 homers and 3 steals in 80 games (.689 OPS in first 69 games). He brought his K% all the way down to 21.1% in 67 games post-break (32.2% in 82 games pre-break). The power was never in question, so if those K% gains are real, it takes Lowe to the next level. 2022 Projection: 89/36/95/.263/.355/.519/6

Randy Arozarena TBR, OF, 27.1 – Arozarena went 20/20 on the dot in 2021, but the underlying numbers are a mixed bag. He had a below average .302 xwOBA (.350 wOBA), 32.4% whiff%, and 7.6 degree launch angle. On the other hand, he had an above average exit velocity (89.9 MPH), BB% (9.3%) and sprint speed (28.8 ft/sec). If you can hit it hard, get on base, and run fast, good things generally happen. I’m more excited for the things he can do well than scared off by the things he doesn’t. 2022 Projection: 88/22/75/.268/.347/.462/17

Austin Meadows TBR, OF, 26.11 – As expected, Meadows bounced back from a Covid induced down 2020 with 27 homers and 106 RBI. He brought his K% down 12.3 percentage points to a career best 20.6%, but he still had a low .234 BA, partly because of bad luck (.249 BABIP) and partly because of a high launch angle (21.7 degrees) mixed with a low FB/LD exit velocity (91.9 MPH). Even in his down 2020, his FB/LD EV was 94.2 MPH, so I’m betting on that bouncing back. There is a Max Kepler-ish vibe that is starting to come from Meadows (and I still think Kepler can have that monster year!), so I’m not as high as I once was on him, but he has the plate approach and power skills to put up a truly big season. 2022 Projection: 82/30/95/.259/.338/.482/6

Pitchers

Shane McClanahan TBR, LHP, 24.11 – I love McClanahan as much as anyone. I’ve been touting him all year and put him in my July 1st, 10 Dynasty Baseball Players to Target article (he put up a 2.97 ERA with 80 strikeouts in 72.2 IP after that). But there is no denying that when batters did made contact, they hit him very hard with a 91.7 MPH EV against (bottom 2% of the league) and 45.7% Hardhit% (bottom 6% of league). Most of the damage comes off his 96.7 MPH fastball, and it brings back to mind helpless little league coaches who had nothing else to say but, “the harder it comes in, the farther it goes out,” as some over grown 12 year old blows like 80 MPH fastballs passed everyone. Those hard hit numbers are the reason for the disparity between his 4.57 xERA and 3.23 xFIP. So which xStat will prevail? I’m betting on it landing somewhere in the middle, leaning more toward xFIP because his ability to miss bats (32% whiff%) and throw the ball over the plate (7.2% BB%) are more important skills to me. 2022 Projection: 12/3.67/1.25/178 in 160 IP

Luis Patino TBR, RHP, 22.5 – Patino held his own as a 21 year old in the majors with a pitching line of 4.31/1.27/74/29 in 77.1 IP on the back of his plus fastball/slider combo. His strikeout and walk rates were about average, and he wasn’t able to develop his changeup very much throwing it only 5% of the time, so on the surface the year wasn’t very exciting, but taking age into account, this is him basically establishing his floor. Upside is still high, even if it might take him a couple years to hit it. 2022 Projection: 8/4.02/1.28/145 in 140 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.62/1.19/190 in 170 IP

Tampa Bay Rays Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects

1) Shane Baz TBR, RHP, 22.10 – Baz’ control took two huge steps forward, going from well below average to near elite with a 1.7% BB% at Double-A, 6.2% at Triple-A, and 6.1% in the majors. He sacrificed nothing to do it, throwing an elite 97 MPH fastball that put up 30.4% whiff%. He combines that with two plus breaking balls in his slider (40.7% whiff%) and curve (50% whiff%), while his changeup lags behind. He’s in a two man race with Grayson Rodriguez for the top pitching prospect in baseball. 2022 Projection: 9/3.78/1.20/148 in 130 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.35/1.07/220 in 187 IP

2) Vidal Brujan TBR, 2B/OF, 24.2 – Brujan couldn’t maintain his early season power surge of 7 homers in his first 16 games (12 homers in 103 games at Triple-A), but his power definitely took a step forward this year. He combines that uptick in power with an elite plate approach (15.4%/11.1% K%/BB%) and plus speed (44 for 52 on the bases). He played all over the field (2B, SS, 3B, OF), and Tampa loves to move guys around, so Brujan is setting up to be the ultimate multi-position eligibility player who will see the field almost everyday at peak. 2022 Projection: 48/7/39/.262/.326/.398/16 Prime Projection: 92/14/66/.283/.355/.423/30

3) Josh Lowe TBR, OF, 24.2 – Lowe blew up at Triple-A, slashing .291/.381/.535 with 22 homers, 26 steals (in 26 attempts), and a 26.2%/13% K%/BB% in 111 games. I’ve been high on him since his 2019 breakout because he is a premium athlete at 6’4”, 205 pounds with a plus power/speed combo and high walk rates. Even though his K% remained high, his hit tool took a step forward this year, which is the one thing that could hold him back. 2022 Projection: 23/7/21/.237/.310/.428/6 Prime Projection: 84/24/76/.256/.338/.467/16

4) Curtis Mead TBR, 3B, 21.5 – Mead has baseball bloodlines with his dad playing professional baseball in Australia. His swing reminds me of my stickball swing, staying upright and loose in the box before ripping liners all over the parking lot, er, baseball field. He hits the ball very hard and makes great contact (15.5% K%), and even though his swing is geared for line drives he still hit 15 homers in 104 games at mostly Single-A (163 wRC+ in 47 games) and High-A (117 wRC+ in 53 games). He is now destroying the AFL, slashing .324/.368/.577 with 3 homers in 18 games. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 79/22/85/.276/.332/.457/7

5) Greg Jones TBR, SS, 24.1 – Jones is all about that pure, uncut upside with double plus speed and plus raw power. He knocked 14 homers and was 34 for 36 on the bases in 72 games split between High-A (144 wRC+ in 72 games) and Double-A (60 wRC+ in 16 games). He was a perfect for 7 for 7 on the bases at Double-A, so the stolen base prowess is definitely real. His strikeout rates are in the danger zone (29.2% at High-A and 35% at Double-A), and he’s on the older side, so the risk is very high, but the upside is worth chasing. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 75/16/61/.242/.318/.428/24

6) Taj Bradley TBR, RHP, 21.0 – Bradley relies heavily on his plus mid 90’s fastball which he has above average control of and gets plenty of whiffs with. He combines that with a breaking ball that flashes plus, but is still inconsistent, and a lesser used developing changeup. He rolled right through the lower minors with a pitching line of 1.83/0.93/123/31 in 103.1 IP split between Single-A and High-A. Good control of a plus fastball makes him relatively safe, and his ceiling will be determined by how much he can improve his secondaries. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/3.98/1.25/163 in 160 IP

7) Carson Williams TBR, SS, 18.9 – Selected 28th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Williams was one of the youngest players in his class and still stepped right into pro ball and performed well with a 130 wRC+ in 11 games. He has a good feel to hit with quick bat speed, and at 6’2”, 180 pounds more power is definitely coming as he matures. He also has some speed. He’s shaping up to be an above average all category contributor. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 79/22/80/.268/.333/.447/9

8) Heriberto Hernandez TBR, OF, 22.4 – Hernandez is your classic 3 true outcome slugger with a 28.1%/15.3% K%/BB% and 44.2% FB% in 73 games at Single-A. He’s always been old for his level and he isn’t good on defense, so playing time could always be a struggle, especially in Tampa’s stacked organization. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/25/77/.251/.335/.467/4

9) Carlos Colmenarez TBR, SS, 18.3 – A hamate injury limited Colmenarez to 26 games, and he didn’t do much in those games with 0 homers, a 26.3%/7.0% K%/BB% and a 79 wRC+ in the DSL, but it’s too early to go off him. He did manage to lift the ball with a 45.7% FB%, so when the raw power inevitably comes, he won’t have any trouble getting to it in games. He still has that same above average across the board potential which made him a very high priced international signing. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 79/20/76/.270/.330/.440/10

10) Ian Seymour TBR, LHP, 23.4 – An elbow injury delayed the start of Seymour’s season until July and limited him to only 55.1 IP, but he quickly proved too advanced for minor league hitters in his pro debut with a pitching line of 1.95/0.81/87/19 split across 3 levels (A, A+, AAA). He doesn’t have huge stuff but he has above average control of a low 90’s fastball and two potentially plus secondaries in his slider and change. He also mixes in a cutter and curve. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.08/1.29/154 in 155 IP

Just Missed

11) Xavier Edwards TBR, 2B, 22.8

12) Cole Wilcox TBR, RHP, 22.9

13) Seth Johnson TBR, RHP, 23.6

Strategy

Tampa Bay can be a nightmare for fantasy owners. They pull their pitchers early and sometimes they don’t even start their starters, they use them as followers. They also use their entire bench and impressive depth to give plenty of days off to all of their position players. While frustrating, there is a method to their madness. They are trying to put their players in the best position to succeed and stay healthy throughout the season, so you can’t be too mad at them. Regardless, it makes me hesitant to go after their pitchers in quality start leagues, and you can’t count on them to rack up innings for you.

Previous Teams on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks–Baltimore Orioles-Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets–New York Yankees–Oakland Athletics–Philadelphia Phillies–Seattle Mariners–San Francisco Giants–St. Louis Cardinals–Toronto Blue Jays

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
–A Top 100 Sneak Peek of my 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings with more early releases coming all off-season
-Dynasty Team Reports for every team (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)
–Positional Dynasty Rankings
-End of Season 2021 Top 466 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
-End of Season 2021 Top 322 Dynasty Prospects Rankings

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)