Trey Sweeney – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on December 18, 2023January 3, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Los Angeles Dodgers 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I like to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team, and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Los Angeles Dodgers 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100+ COMING SOON)
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Arizona Diamondbacks–Baltimore Orioles (free)–Boston Red Sox (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Oakland Athletics–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

The Tampa Bay Rays must subscribe to my Patreon, because I named Ryan Pepiot a Top 10 Early Off-Season Dynasty Baseball Target back on September 26th, and the Rays went out and got him for Tyler Glasnow. The Rays are an organization that almost has to trade their studs when they are in the last year of team control, especially an injury prone pitcher, but targeting Pepiot tells you everything you need to know about him. Like me, they think he can be a legitimate impact starter. This trade likely raises his profile too high to still get great value on him, but I also like targeting him at his fair value.

Pitchers

Emmet Sheehan LAD, RHP, 24.5 – Sheehan didn’t have a standout MLB debut with a 4.92 ERA and a 25.8%/10.5% K%/BB% in 60.1 IP, but some of the underlying data is extremely encouraging. Most notably, his 3 secondary pitches were absolutely devastating. The slider put up a .179 xwOBA with a 43.8% whiff%, the changeup put up a .200 xwOBA with a 47.6% whiff%, and the very lightly used sweeper put up a .161 xwOBA with a 41.2% whiff%. His heavily used 95.4 MPH fastball was solid as well with a respectable 20.2% whiff%. His 3.50 xERA looks much better than the surface stats, and he also closed the year out in dominant fashion with a 1.98 ERA and 24/4 K/BB in 13.2 IP over 3 outings. His control is below average, but it’s never really been in the major danger zone, so I wouldn’t downgrade him too much because of that. And how could you not trust the Dodgers to unlock his full potential in the long run. He showed no joke ace upside in his rookie year, and considering he currently has a NFBC ADP of 249, that tells me he isn’t getting nearly the respect he deserves this off-season. 2024 Projection: 9/3.72/1.23/158 in 145 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.52/1.18/210 in 175 IP

Bobby Miller LAD, RHP, 25.0 – Miller’s humongous stuff unsurprisingly transferred to the big leagues with a very strong rookie year. He put up a 3.76 ERA with a 23.6%/6.3% K%/BB% in 124.1 IP. He threw a 5 pitch mix and all of the pitches were good. The 99.1 MPH 4-seamer and 98.7 MPH sinker were both plus, and all 3 of his off-speed pitches missed bats (curve-36% whiff%/change-39.9%/slider-29.2% whiff%). He established a very high floor for himself. The 23.6% K% was modest, but the 6.3% BB% is very encouraging, and seeing the whiff rates on his secondaries tells me there could easily be more swing and miss in the tank. As opposed to Sheehan, Miller’s getting a ton of respect this off-season with a NFBC ADP of 81, so you’re probably one year too late if you are looking to buy him. He has top of the rotation upside and everyone knows it now. 2024 Projection: 12/3.52/1.18/165 in 160 IP

Hitters

James Outman LAD, OF, 26.10 – Outman has a plus power/speed combo with extreme hit tool risk, but I’m concerned the power/speed combo isn’t quite big enough to stick your neck out for considering the risk. He hit 23 homers with a 87.9/91.8 MPH AVG/FB EV, and he stole 16 bags in 567 PA. Good, but not great, and the swing and miss is in the danger zone with a 31.9% K% and 36.6% whiff%. He also struggles vs. lefties with a .665 OPS, giving him platoon risk. He’s a well above average defensive centerfielder, and he still got on base vs. lefties (.357 OBP), so the skills are there to play nearly everyday even if the BA dips. It was also only his rookie year and he managed a .248 BA (.228 xBA), so I’m certainly not down on him, but it’s the type of profile I would want to fall into my lap, rather than one I’m truly going after. 2024 Projection: 81/25/72/.239/.338/.440/15

Miguel Vargas LAD, 2B, 24.4 – It feels like eons ago since Miguel Vargas was considered a near elite prospect, but that was just last off-season. What scared everyone off is that he pulled a Gavin Lux on us with extremely underwhelming homer/steal totals (7 homers and 3 steals in 304 MLB PA), and he also only hit .195 despite a strong 20.1%/12.5% K%/BB%. He was then sent back down to the minors on July 8th and never saw the MLB field again. Vargas had his chance and failed to lock in a full time MLB role, and now he’s going to have to fight for his playing time. Betts is locked in at 2B, Muncy is at 3B, Freeman is at 1B, and Ohtani is at DH. He’s a bench bat until an injury happens or Muncy leaves in free agency after the 2024 season. Despite the poor rookie season, he still showed the skills to breakout in the future with his aforementioned strong plate approach, 16.6 degree launch, decent 6% Barrel%, and above average 27.9 ft/sec sprint. He crushed Triple-A again too. He’s just going to have to wait his turn to get another full time shot. 2024 Projection: 39/10/36/.251/.329/.418/7 Prime Projection: 84/24/79/.267/.346/.451/13

Bullpen

Evan Phillips LAD, Closer, 29.7 – Josh Hader is the only one who could rain on Phillips’ parade. The Dodgers seem like a very possible landing spot for Hader, and he would almost certainly slot directly into the full time closer role. That makes Phillips a bit risky to go after too hard until Hader officially signs somewhere, but if Phillips does keep the job, he is in at least the 2nd tier of closers. He took over LA’s undisputed closer role by late June, and he earned it with a 2.05 ERA and 28.2%/5.6% K%/BB% in 61.1 IP. He has an elite sweeper (.195 xwOBA with a 42.1% whiff%), a double plus 96.4 MPH fastball (.279 xwOBA with a 30.8% whiff%), a 95.5 MPH sinker that keeps the ball on the ground (negative 1 degree launch), and a solid 93.1 MPH cutter. It’s his 2nd year in a row of dominance, and his control is now in the near elite range. Just keep Hader away from him. 2024 Projection: 4/2.89/0.98/72/30 saves in 63 IP

Los Angeles Dodgers Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Josue De Paula LAD, OF, 18.10 – De Paula’s stateside debut wasn’t perfect, and it wasn’t the true explosion we were all hoping for, but it was still impressive when taking everything into account. The Dodgers showed how much they loved him by skipping him straight over stateside rookie ball, and he didn’t only hold his own against much older competition, his plate approach and hit tool were actually extremely mature with a 17.9%/13.5% K%/BB%, .284 BA, and 118 wRC+ in 74 games at Single-A. At a broad, athletic, and projectable 6’3”, 185 pounds with a sweet lefty swing, establishing this level of plate skills is relatively rare and exciting. Usually with these toolsy prospects we have to worry about the hit tool tanking them, but not with Josue. He hit only 2 homers, which is extremely low, so I’m not just going to hand wave it away, but he didn’t hit the ball particularly weakly, and he obviously made zero attempts to sell out for power. The raw power will certainly continue to tick up, which will make for a dangerous combination with his plate skills once it does. He’s not a burner, but he’s a good base runner with 14 steals in 17 attempts. Josue is taking the Juan Soto path, and the off-season after Soto’s 18 year old season were when the biggest trade mistakes were made with Soto (not saying he will be as good as Soto because Soto was even better in a shortened 18 year old season at Single-A). Stay patient on the explosion. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 88/24/81/.278/.352/.475/12

2) Joendry Vargas LAD, SS, 18.5 – Vargas is basically Josue De Paula 2.0. It’s almost like the Dodgers are especially good at this developing baseball players thing. He’s a projectable and athletic 6’4”, 175 pounds, earning him one of the top international signing bonuses last off-season, and he had a great season in the DSL, slashing .328/.423/.529 with 7 homers, 19 steals, and a 14.9%/14.4% K%/BB% in 48 games. All of the ingredients are there for him to explode to elite prospect status in the next few years with at least plus power potential, plus athleticism, and plus plate skills. Get in on him now before the mainstream prospect lists start blowing him up next season. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 81/26/86/.268/.341/.481/13

3) Gavin Stone LAD, RHP, 25.6 – Stone had a truly horrific MLB debut with a 9.00 ERA and 14.5%/8.6% K% in 31 IP, but I’m trying not to panic. We only have to look at Brandon Pfaadt to be reminded to keep our heads when a top pitching prospect gets demolished in their debut. Pfaadt is just one of many examples (Jose Berrios immediately comes to mind as well). If you’re looking for silver linings, his stuff did a solid job of missing bats with his changeup putting up a 41.4% whiff%, his slider putting up a 40% whiff%, and his 4-seamer putting up a 23.5% whiff%. His stuff didn’t even get hit insanely hard either with a merely below average 8.7% barrel%. It certainly wasn’t a good year with his fastball velocity taking a step back to 94 MPH, and he wasn’t great at Triple-A either with a 4.74 ERA in 100.2 IP, but I think the prudent thing to do is to look at this year as a developmental bump in the road, rather than a true disaster. His value takes a hit, but you certainly shouldn’t be close to throwing in the towel on him. 2024 Projection: 5/4.25/1.32/96 in 100 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.88/1.26/173 in 165 IP

4) Dalton Rushing LAD, C/1B, 23.1 – If Robo Umps come to the majors in the future, it will take framing away as a catcher skill, but blocking balls in the dirt and throwing out runners on the bases will still be super important, so I wouldn’t assume catcher defense will just be thrown to the curb. On that note, Rushing isn’t a particularly good defensive catcher, so it puts a lot of pressure on his bat to max out. He was far too advanced for High-A with a 146 wRC+ on the back of a .404 OBP in 89 games, as an advanced 22 year old college bat should be, but the 15 homers, .228 BA, and 24.4% K% aren’t quite as impressive. His numbers likely would have been better if he didn’t suffer a concussion from a getting hit by a backswing in June, but not sure that is necessarily a point in his favor for fantasy. Catchers take a beating, which is why you should generally downgrade them. The bat is good enough to profile in a 1B/DH/backup catcher role, but it just makes playing time tougher to come by and the leash much shorter. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/25/81/.253/.339/.458/2

5) Michael Busch LAD, 2B/3B, 26.4 – Ohtani locking down the DH spot is not great for Busch. He’s a poor defensive player who hits righties much better than lefties, so that DH spot was going to be his saving grace. Not anymore. He had a terrible MLB debut with a 49 wRC+ in 81 PA, and while there is some Quad-A slugger risk, he was utterly dominant at Triple-A (150 wRC+, 27 homers, 18.8%/13.9% K%/BB% in 98 games), so I wouldn’t panic too much over the debut. A trade would be the best thing for him, but LA could use a big bench bat, so I don’t think they are in any rush to move him. He’s stuck in opportunity limbo right now, and it might take until his late 20’s to lock in a near full time role. 2024 Projection: 21/7/25/.238/.321/.431/1 Prime Projection: 67/20/75/.251/.339/.467/3

6) Andy Pages LAD, OF, 23.4 – Out of sight, out of mind rules the prospect world, but Pages has the skills and opportunity to fight that instinct. He tore his labrum on a swing in mid May and missed the rest of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery. He was in the midst of having another excellent season (all he’s done in his career is have excellent seasons) with a 144 wRC+ in 33 games at Double-A. He has plus power with extremely low groundball rates (23.8%), and he combines that with a plus plate approach (22.5%/17.6% K%/BB%). He has some hit tool risk, especially with the extreme launch, but his strikeout rates have generally stayed out of the danger zone over his career. The Dodgers also don’t have much close to the majors OF depth with Outman, Jason Heyward, Chris Taylor, and Manuel Margot currently penciled into their OF slots. Pages can definitively kick the door down in 2024 assuming he returns to full health. 2024 Projection: 18/6/22/.223/.307/.431/2 Prime Projection: 82/28/84/.241/.335/.466/9

7) Eduardo Quintero LAD, OF, 18.7 – Quintero was one of the top DSL breakouts, and is arguably THE top DSL breakout with a 180 wRC+ that led all qualified age appropriate 17 year olds. He slashed .359/.472/.618 with 5 homers, 22 steals, and a 16%/15.1% K%/BB% in 49 games. He doesn’t have De Paula or Vargas’ obvious projectable size, but he’s not small at 6’0”, 175 pounds, and he’s an electric athlete with plus speed and at least above average power potential. DSL stats have to be taken with some level of restraint, so when I truly stick my neck out for a DSL breakout, they optimally have that prototypical size and pedigree, but if you aren’t as concerned with that, Quintero has a real case to be valued equally to, or even higher than Vargas. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 83/20/77/.265/.336/.448/22

8) Kyle Hurt LAD, RHP, 25.10 – All signs point towards LA deploying Hurt as a multi inning bullpen weapon in the near future. He reached 5 IP in only 4 of 26 upper minors outings, and he was already 25 years old for most of the 2023 season. His 92 IP this year was a career high. The profile also plays in shorter outings with below average control (11.3% BB%) of two plus to double plus pitches in his 95.5 MPH 4-seamer and 87.1 MPH changeup. It led to an insane 39.2% K%. He throws a decent slider and curve, so it’s not impossible for him to end up a starter, but neither misses a ton of bats. In shallower leagues, his likely middle innings role could make it hard to roster him, but in medium to deeper leagues, he’s good enough to make a real impact out of the bullpen, and he can certainly end up in the rotation if injuries open up a spot for him. 2024 Projection: 5/3.78/1.30/99 in 85 IP Prime Projection: 8/3.55/1.26/150 in 130 IP

9) Diego Cartaya LAD, C, 22.7 – Cartaya’s hit tool issues came to the forefront at Double-A with a .189 BA and 29%/9.2% K%/BB% in 93 games. A lot of that was back luck with a .216 BABIP, but it certainly wasn’t all bad luck. He was only 21 years old in the upper minors, so I would expect improvement in the future, but the hit tool is definitely a risk. The power isn’t a risk as the 6’3”, 220 slugger smacked 19 homers with a 31.6% GB%. Cartaya didn’t have the elite fantasy catcher explosion that we were hoping for in 2023, but his big power, low BA profile remains intact. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 64/26/72/.237/.321/.462/1

10) Thayron Liranzo LAD, C, 20.9 – Liranzo was one of the top breakout catcher prospects in 2023 on the back of at least double plus power. He slashed .272/.400/.562 with 24 homers and a 26.8%/16.7% K%/BB% in 94 games at Single-A. He’s a big boy at a thick 6’3” and he hits the ball tremendously hard from both sides of the plate (he’s better as a lefty). He’s not a great defensive catcher, the hit tool is still a risk, and LA is stacked at catcher up and down their organization, but Liranzo still seems underrated and underhyped to me considering the destruction he just laid in 2023. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 68/28/81/.242/.328/.464/3

11) Nick Frasso LAD, RHP, 25.6 – When everything is clicking, Frasso looks like a near ace at an athletic 6’5” with a deceptive righty delivery, fire stuff, and above average control. But everything isn’t always clicking for him as he ran extremely hot and cold this year, his stuff can be up and down, he’s been very injury prone in his career, and 93 IP was a career high by far (60 IP was previous career high in 2018). He throws a mid 90’s fastball with a plus slider and a changeup that flashes plus. It was good for a 3.77 ERA and 26.8%/7.8% K%/BB% in 93 IP at mostly Double-A. His ultimate role is still very much in the air, and in an organization that grows pitching prospects on trees and can sign/acquire high priced pitchers whenever they want, a bullpen role seems likely in the first couple years of his career. 2024 Projection: 3/4.39/1.34/58 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 9/3.91/1.28/150 in 140 IP

12) River Ryan LAD, RHP, 25.8 – Ryan’s numbers don’t exactly jump off the screen with a 3.90 ERA and 24.6%/10.3% K%/BB% in 104.1 IP at mostly Double-A, but his stuff most certainly does with a mid to upper 90’s fastball and plus slider leading the way. He also throws a curve and changeup that both have plus potential. He has a repeatable and athletic righty delivery at 6’2”, 195 pounds, and he doesn’t have a ton of experience starting, so there might be more upside in here than your typical 25 year old. A mid-rotation starter is probably his most reasonable upside projection, but he has a bit more upside than your typical “mid-rotation upside” starter. 2024 Projection: 2/4.48/1.35/54 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.95/1.28/150 in 150 IP

13) Hyun-Seok Jang LAD, RHP, 20.0 – When the Dodgers aggressively go after somebody (they made a trade for international moola right before signing Jang), you take notice, and you also jump aboard knowing how good they are at development. The 6’4”, 200 pound Jang was expected to be the #1 overall pick in the Korea League Draft before signing with LA, and after watching every video I could find of him, it’s very easy to see why. His stuff is genuinely explosive with a plus to double plus 4 pitch mix. He throws a mid 90’s fastball that rockets out of his hand, a knee buckling curve that looks like it could be double plus, a plus slider, and a potentially plus change. He is also way mature beyond his years on the mound with an athletic delivery and good control. I think he has legit ace upside and isn’t going to be ranked even close to where he deserves to be. Go after Jang hard in first year player drafts, and I’m tempted to go even higher on him, but you likely won’t have to reach too far to grab him in your drafts based on his current hype. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 13/3.56/1.18/185 in 170 IP

14) Kendall George LAD, OF, 19.5 – Selected 36th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, George is a pure speed play. He has 80 grade speed with legitimately elite run times. He also makes a ton of contact and is a plus defensive centerfielder. That profile will play on the major league level, and it certainly played in the lower minors, slashing .370/.458/.420 with 0 homers, 17 steals, and a 20/17 K/BB in 28 games split between rookie and Single-A. He has below average power with extremely high groundball rates, and while it does project to tick up from here, it’s not expected to be a major part of his game. He’s the high school version of Enrique Bradfield. . ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 84/10/52/.284/.348/.390/41

15) Trey Sweeney LAD, SS, 23.11 – The ingredients seem to be in here for a legit breakout, which is obviously part of the reason LA traded for him. Sweeney has a plus plate approach (19.1%/13.8% K%/BB%), good raw power at 6’2”, 212 pounds, low groundball rates (32.9% GB%), and while he’s not a burner, he clearly has some base stealing skills (20 steals). He’s also a decent defensive SS. It was good for a 118 wRC+ in 100 games at Double-A. He hasn’t been able to fully tap into his raw power yet with only 13 homers and a very low hard hit rate. The lack of squaring up the baseball has also led to a mediocre BA (.252 BA). He also struggled mightily vs lefties with a .560 OPS. The Dodgers organizational SS depth is surprisingly weak right now, so Sweeney immediately becomes their 2nd best long term SS option behind Gavin Lux. He might never be anything but a below average MLB hitter, but the move to LA gives him both a developmental and opportunity bump. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 68/18/62/.248/.324/.429/11

16) Jake Gelof LAD, 3B, 22.1 – Selected 60th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Gelof has the baseball bloodlines with his older brother, Zack, breaking out in the majors this year. Jake is a thick 6’1”, 200 pounds with a powerful righty swing that is made to hit dingers. He popped 21 homers in 2022 and then followed that up with a 23 homer season in 2023. That continued in pro ball with him cracking 6 homers in 30 games at mostly Single-A. It might not be truly elite power, but it’s easy plus power. He has below average speed, and there is hit tool risk too which already reared it’s ugly head with a .225 BA and 29.9 K% at Single-A, but we’ve seen the Gelof’s thrive with high K rates (hello, Zack) You are buying the power here, and after getting drafted by the Dodgers, you are also buying the great developmental organization. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 74/27/83/.243/.326/.468/6

Just Missed

16) Payton Martin LAD, RHP, 19.10

17) Justin Wrobleski LAD, LHP, 23.8

18) Jose Ramos LAD, OF, 23.3

19) Jeral Perez LAD, 2B/3B/SS, 19.5 – Perez’ destruction of rookie ball (11 homers with a 120 wRC+ in 53 games) earned him a promotion to Single-A where he more than held his own with a 118 wRC+ and 22.2%/18.5% K%/BB% in 7 games. He doesn’t necessarily jump off the screen with a thick and stocky build, and he’s not a huge tools guy, but he’s done nothing but produce at every level, including the DSL in 2022 (130 wRC+). He has a mature plate approach, he lifts the ball, and he’s in a great organization, so he should be able to get the most of his talent. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 66/19/74/.245/.323/.430/8

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: TOP 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100+ COMING SOON)
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on October 9, 2023October 14, 2023 by Michael Halpern

New York Yankees 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

The 2024 off-season festivities have officially kicked off on the Brick Wall with the first Dynasty Team Report of the year. Like during the regular season, I will release a freebie here on Imaginary Brick Wall on some Mondays with the vast majority of the content over on the Patreon. Off-season content will include these Dynasty Team Reports, along with Deep Positional Rankings, strategy articles, target articles, podcasts, predicting future prospect lists, the Top 100 FYPD rankings, Top 500 Prospects Rankings, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings. Here is the New York Yankees 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-SEPTEMBER TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-SEPTEMBER TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: SEPTEMBER MAILBAG! (9/22/23)
-Off-Season content includes team dynasty reports, deep positional rankings, strategy articles, podcasts and very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

Hitters

Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 22.11 – Volpe might be easier to acquire this off-season than he was last off-season, which is wild, but is also par for the course in dynasty leagues. If rookies don’t immediately Corbin Carroll the league, people get discouraged and throw the bust label around. In reality, Volpe’s value should be considerably higher after the year he just had. Not only did he go 20/20 (21/24), but all of the underlying numbers are screaming a future breakout is coming with a 9% barrel%, 88.7 MPH EV, 14.2 degree launch, and 28.4 ft/sec sprint speed. The 27.8%/8.7% K%/BB% wasn’t great, but it’s far from the danger zone, and it’s really not bad for a 21/22 year old who had 99 total PA at Triple-A coming into the year. If cold hard numbers aren’t your thing, Volpe even has Black Magic on his side. His OPS was the number of the beast, .666. I don’t know what is going to happen to Volpe’s soul, but the Devil keeps his promises. Max Kepler was the only player to have a .666 OPS in 2022, and this season he had the highest wRC+ of his career at 124 (.816 OPS). Literally all signs, both natural and supernatural, are pointing towards a big 2024 for Volpe. He’s an easy target. 2024 Projection: 81/25/79/.245/.316/.451/31

Oswald Peraza NYY, SS/2B, 23.10 – I guess the Devil only has room for one Yankees rookie on his ledger, because I see no promises made for Peraza in 2024. He swung and missed far too often for his type of profile with a 33.1% whiff% in 191 PA, which led to a .191 BA. He doesn’t hit the ball hard enough to make up for the swing and miss with a below average 87.2 MPH EV in the majors and 85.2 MPH EV at Triple-A. He also has never really been a big OBP guy with mostly mediocre walks rates throughout his career. The plus speed and defense are what carries his profile, and while both are good enough to make Peraza an attractive low cost option, his former prospect hype could push his value higher than I would be willing to go. 2024 Projection: 53/9/46/.238/.299/.388/17 Prime Projection: 77/17/68/.254/.319/.415/23

Pitchers

Michael King NYY, RHP, 28.10 – King pitched too damn well once being transitioned to a starter to leave a ton of value on the bone. He put up a 2.02 ERA with a 45/7 K/BB in his final 35.2 IP. There is nothing in the underlying data to say it was a fluke, and he’s been lights out for 2 years now in whatever role the Yanks put him in. The stuff is good, he misses bats, he induces weak contact, and he doesn’t have any major control issues. He was also a starter throughout his minor league career, so it’s not like starting is a new challenge for him. Everything is pointing towards him being for real, but there are a couple things to consider before you really sell the farm for him. His velocity was slowly declining to close out the season, and he also had a serious arm injury in 2022 (fractured elbow which required surgery). It adds at least some doubt if he can truly keep up this level of production under a full starter’s workload. I’m willing to go after him if the price doesn’t get too out of control, but I’m concerned with how he closed out the season, his price could get too out of control. 2024 Projection: 9/3.51/1.19/162 in 145 IP

Carlos Rodon NYY, LHP, 31.4 – An elbow and back injury delayed the start of Rodon’s season until July, and while there were glimpses of him regaining his old form, it was mostly a straight disaster with a 6.85 ERA and 22.4%/9.8% K%/BB% in 64.1 IP. His finish to the season was the most concerning as his velocity was way down, and he gave up 8 earned runs without recording a single out in his final outing. If you’re a glass half full person, you can look at this as a lost season due to the injuries and expect him to bounce back in a big way in 2024, but if you’re a glass half empty person, you are looking at him like a ticking time bomb, especially with his injury history. I’m the type of person who looks at that glass and sees the water in the middle (I live in the gray), which is how I would value Rodon for next year. 2024 Projection: 9/3.57/1.20/160 in 140 IP

Bullpen

Clay Holmes NYY, Closer, 30.4 – Holmes 27.1% K% isn’t high enough to put him in the truly elite closer tier when you have guys like Felix Bautista putting up a 46.4% K% (and plenty of others in the mid to high 30’s), but he’s in the tier right under that. He uses a 96 MPH sinker which he throws 69.2% of the time to keep the ball on the ground (negative 3.4 degree launch), and he uses a dominant slider (.176 xwOBA and 43.1% whiff%) and sweeper (.079 xwOBA and 44.2% whiff%) to miss bats. He’s locked in as the Yanks closer for 2024. 2024 Projection: 4/3.09/1.12/72/32 saves in 64 IP

New York Yankees Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 21.2 – The backlash to Dominguez’ early career hype made it hard to hold the line, but I remained all in on Dominguez last off-season, ranking him 10th overall, and he more than delivered on that ranking this year. He hit 15 homers with 37 steals and a 25.6%/15.2% K%/BB% in 109 games at Double-A as a 20 year old. Then he quickly ran through Triple-A with a 180 wRC+ in 9 games, before finishing out his season with 4 homers and a 162 wRC+ in 8 games in the majors. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery put a halt to what was sure to be insane hype this off-season, but I wouldn’t let the Tommy John surgery scare you off. It isn’t as big of a deal for hitters as it is for pitchers, and he’s expected to return by the 2nd half of 2024. His extremely good MLB debut will likely make it hard to get good value for him this off-season even with the surgery, so my move would be to hope he needs to shake off some rust when he returns next season to bring his value into a more reasonable range again. 2024 Projection: 30/8/226/.242/.324/.438/10 Prime Projection: 92/26/86/.266/.361/.485/28

2) Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 22.11 – Strikeouts are the only thing we have to worry about with the uber talented 6’6”, 235 pound beast, which is why his 28.2% K% in 78 PA at Double-A is actually encouraging. That number could have easily skyrocketed against more advanced pitching after putting up a 29% K% in 100 games at High-A. Jones can live in the upper 20’s and still thrive due do his double plus power/speed combo. He hit 16 homers and stole 38 bags in 117 games. His groundball rates are on the high side, but with how hard he hits the ball, it might actually be a good thing to ensure his batting average doesn’t tank too low. It’s more or less the Elly De La Cruz package, and just like I’m buying Elly, I’m buying Jones too. 2024 Projection: 27/7/23/.217/.283/.411/8 Prime Projection: 76/23/82/.241/.318/.465/26

3) Roderick Arias NYY, SS, 19.7 – Arias has elite prospect written all over him, and with a good showing in full season ball in 2024, it won’t be long before he skyrockets into the Top 10 overall. He hits the ball hard (6 homers in 27 games in stateside rookie ball), he has speed (17 steals), he has an excellent plate approach (22.3%/20.8% K%/BB%), he’s a good defender, and he has pedigree ($4 million international signing). He most certainly looks the part too with a vicious lefty swing (he went 2 for 11 on the entire season hitting righty). He won’t come super cheap this off-season, but he’s easily worth targeting at his current price. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 86/22/80/.264/.348/.471/24

4) Austin Wells NYY, C, 24.9 – Wells’ MLB debut gave me a ton of confidence that the profile will transfer. He had a 14% barrel%, 89.5 MPH EV, 13.6 degree launch, 18.7% K%, and .367 xwOBA in 75 PA. Boone also praised his defense. He didn’t exactly blow the doors off the upper minors, but he still hit 17 homers in 96 games. The Yankee Stadium short porch is perfect for him, and the bar to clear to be an impact fantasy catcher isn’t very high right now. I don’t think he is going to be a fantasy beast, but I do foresee a top 10 fantasy catcher for years to come. 2024 Projection: 56/18/63/.235/.307/.410/3 Prime Projection: 71/23/77/.252/.331/.442/5

5) Everson Pereira NYY, OF, 23.0 – Pereira’s 43.1% whiff%, 38.8% K%, and 23 wRC+ in his 103 PA MLB debut is exactly what we didn’t want to see happen. That is the kind of disaster MLB debut that has to make you think twice about betting on a player, but I would be careful about giving up on Pereira too fast. He truly crushes the ball, he has well above average speed, and he decimated the upper minors with a 145 wRC+ at Double-A and 132 wRC+ at Triple-A. You only have to look at his teammate, Aaron Judge, to find hope, as Judge put up a 44.2% K% in his 95 PA MLB debut in 2016. When a guy hits the ball this hard, you don’t need to be Luis Arraez to do damage. The extreme swing and miss does have me less excited for him than I was before his debut, but I’m still betting on his talent long term. 2024 Projection: 44/17/51/.222/.291/.434/9 Prime Projection: 74/26/82/.244/.320/.482/12

6) Drew Thorpe NYY, RHP, 23.6 – Who needs a huge fastball anyway? Thorpe’s double plus changeup and above average slider was more than enough to obliterate minor leaguers. He put up a 2.81 ERA with a 32.4%/7.7% K%/BB% in 109 IP at High-A, and then he went to Double-A and was even better with a 1.48 ERA and 40%/4.5% K%/BB% in 30.1 IP. He’s a big boy at 6’4”, 225 pounds and his command is very good too. Plus changeup guys can sometimes get exposed against MLB hitters, and the aforementioned fastball only sits low to mid 90’s, which is why I’m hesitant to truly put top of the rotation upside on him, but this is a high floor starter with legit upside who should be up in the bigs very quickly into 2024. 2024 Projection: 5/4.13/1.28/92 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.64/1.18/190 in 175 IP

7) John Cruz NYY, OF, 18.7 – If Cruz were eligible for the 2023 MLB Draft, his hype would be through the roof. He has the scout’s dream build at a projectable 6’3”, 171 pounds, and it comes with a quick and powerful lefty swing. It resulted in him ripping up stateside rookie ball as a 17 year old, slashing .294/.376/.531 with 10 homers, 9 steals, and a 21.8%/10.9% K%/BB% in 48 games. Power, speed, build, production, age to level … this is everything you look for in a shooting star prospect. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 78/27/87/.251/.324/.473/12

8) George Lombard NYY, SS, 18.10 – Selected 26th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Lombard has baseball bloodlines with his father playing 6 years in the big leagues, and like most plus bloodlines kids, his game is mature beyond his years. He stepped right into pro ball and put up a 202 wRC+ with a 2/5 K/BB in 4 games at rookie ball, and then he closed the year out at Single-A with a 114 wRC+ and 10/8 K/BB in 9 games. He combines the high baseball IQ with plus athleticism at 6’3”, 190 pounds, and has the potential for an at least above average power/speed combo at peak. This is a really nice blend of safety and upside. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 83/22/77/.268/.341/.450/16

9) Chase Hampton NYY, RHP, 22.8 – Hampton wasn’t quite able to keep up the breakout at Double-A with his ERA jumping from 2.68 at High-A to 4.37 at Double-A, and his K% dropping from 40.5% to 27.4%, but that shouldn’t put a damper on his excellent season, because he has the big stuff to get excited about. He’s 6’2, 200 pounds with mid 90’s heat and a diverse set of secondaries (slider, curve, cutter, change). The command is solid. With the production taking a step back against more advanced competition, I wouldn’t put top of the rotation upside on him, but I certainly think he can be an impact mid-rotation fantasy starter at peak. 2024 Projection: 4/4.28/1.33/86 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.78/1.23/177 in 170 IP

10) Keiner Delgado NYY, 2B/3B, 20.3 – Delgado backed up his 2022 breakout in the DSL with all of his skills transferring stateside in 2023, slashing .293/.414/.485 with 8 homers, 36 steals, and a 13%/15.1% K%/BB% in 49 games. Proving it stateside is one box checked off, but he was still one year older than optimal for the level, and he is still a small guy at only 5’7”. It wouldn’t be all that surprising if he ended up a utility infielder, but he’s a legitimately electric player who I think can overcome his small stature. If he can keep up the production at a more age appropriate level, he will be an easy Top 100 prospect. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 83/16/62/.273/.343/.428/26

Just Missed

11) Enmanuel Tejeda NYY, SS/2B/3B, 19.3

12) Brando Mayea NYY, OF, 18.7

13) Will Warren NYY, RHP, 24.10

14) Trey Sweeney NYY, SS, 23.11

15) Henry Lalane NYY, LHP, 19.10

16) Richard Fitts NYY, RHP, 24.5

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

It can be a pain in the ass to own prospects from big market teams because of how easily those teams can go out and sign proven talent, which in turn blocks our favorite prospects, but the Yankees are too far deep into the youth movement to all of a sudden majorly change course this off-season. They also don’t have a ton of money coming off the books, making it even less likely that their top prospects get blocked. The combination of talent, proximity, opportunity and ballpark (Yankee Stadium has the perfect combo for fantasy of juicing up homers while being a fairly neutral park overall) provides so many juicy targets to go after this off-season for dynasty.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on November 14, 2022November 22, 2022 by Michael Halpern

New York Yankees 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the New York Yankees 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 104 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: TOP 65 CATCHERS
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago White Sox—Colorado Rockies—Kansas City Royals—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—Texas Rangers—Washington Nationals

Starting Pitchers

Nestor Cortes NYY, LHP, 28.4 – Cortes might have been my biggest miss on somebody I wasn’t in on and quite clearly should have been. Andrew McCutchen said it best on Twitter, “Nestor Cortes’ fastball plays up. Meaning his 91-94 actually feels like 97. Mix that with him messing with a hitters timing, throwing from diff arm angles, and locating well, he can be very difficult to hit.” I struggled to buy into the low 90’s velocity with a below average whiff%, but he not only proved the profile will play, he also made incremental improvements. The fastball ticked up 1.1 MPH to 91.8 MPH, his 6.2% BB% is a career best and his 24.4% whiff% is now nearly average. It led to a stunning pitching line of 2.44/0.92/163/38 in 158.1 IP. The dead ball also helped, as many big strikeout pitchers started to pitch more like Cortes by pitching to contact and bringing both their K and BB rates down. I’m not making the same mistake I did last year, I’m in on Cortes. 2023 Projection: 13/3.39/1.06/175 in 170 IP

Luis Severino NYY, RHP, 29.1 – Cortes was a miss, but Severino was a definite hit. I love taking the Tommy John discount on established pitchers, and Severino was back to pitching to near elite levels with a pitching line of 3.18/1.00/112/30 in 102 IP. He missed over 2 months with a lat strain, but he looked no worse for the wear when he returned in September. He pumped the fastball in at 96.3 MPH and it put up a career best .299 xwOBA. All 3 of his secondaries were on point with his slider putting up a 41.6% whiff%, his changeup putting up a .259 xwOBA, and he went to his cutter more than ever with a 7.3% usage and 40.6% whiff%. Even with the excellent season, it still seems like he isn’t getting the respect he deserves and remains a target for me. 2023 Projection: 11/3.45/1.10/170 in 155 IP

Frankie Montas NYY, RHP, 30.0 – Montes went from a no pressure situation in the the spacious confines of Oakland, to a high stress situation with the short porch in New York, and it was unsurprisingly not a smooth transition. He had a 3.18 ERA in 104.2 IP with Oakland and a 6.35 ERA in 39.2 IP with New York. Doing it while he just had a shoulder issue he was returning from probably didn’t help things either, and the shoulder issue popped up again at the end of the season. All of this to say I think Montas will be a lot better in year 2 with a full off-season to heal and get comfortable with his new pitching environment. He throws a 5 pitch mix led by a 96.1 MPH fastball and a splitter which is excellent even in a down year with a .223 xwOBA. He has plus control (7.1% BB%) and plus whiff rates (27.6% whiff%). His disaster stint with New York could have him going for a sweetheart price this off-season, and if you’re like me in not wanting to pay up huge for the top aces, Montas will be right in my wheelhouse. 2023 Projection: 11/3.60/1.21/181 in 170 IP

Hitters

Aaron Judge FA, OF, 30.11 – Judge hit only 62 homers this year, not even coming close to the home run record of 73. His cute little 207 wRC+ was bested by Barry Bonds 5 times. He also stole only 16 bases, falling short of the vaunted 20/20 season. It was just a disappointment all around, and as a Yankees fan, it’s unacceptable. Let him walk 😉 2023 Projection: 111/43/109/.286/.398/.562/11

Oswaldo Cabrera NYY, 2B/SS/OF, 24.1 – Cabrera had a very strong MLB Debut with a 111 wRC+, 6 homers, and 3 steals in 44 games, but I’m still staying hesitant. He outperformed his underlying numbers with a .322 wOBA vs. .287 xwOBA, he doesn’t hit the ball hard enough with a 86.8 MPH EV, he’s not that fast with a 54.9% percentile sprint speed rank, and he has below average swing and miss rates (25.7% K% and 26.9% whiff%). He also went 2 for 28 in the playoffs. Josh Rojas isn’t the worst comp, but Cabrera hits the ball in the air a lot more which gives him higher power upside and lower BA downside. He seems to be setting up for a super utility role, especially for a team like the Yankees who can open the pocketbook to fill holes. 2023 Projection: 51/14/47/.242/.309/.418/10

Bullpen

Clay Holmes NYY, Closer, 30.0 – Aroldis Chapman’s total meltdown opened the door up for Holmes, and his 97.1 MPH bowling bowl sinker did the rest. He threw it 80.1% of the time and it was the tied for the 8th most valuable sinker in the game with a negative 10 run value. His slider is a killer pitch too with a 42.9% whiff% and .174 xwOBA. It led to a pitching line of 2.54/1.02/65/20 in 63.2 IP. Aroldis Chapman is a free agent now and it seems Holmes is the heavy favorite to open the season as the closer, but I don’t think he is locked in the role if the Yanks acquire a more established closer. Kenley Jansen is a name that sticks out from the free agent pool. I wouldn’t worry too much that he will lose the role, but I would keep it in the back your mind when building your team. 2023 Projection: 4/3.28/1.08/69/30 saves in 65 IP

Top 10 New York Yankees Fantasy Baseball Prospects.

1) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 21.11 – Volpe got off to a rough start at Double-A with a .647 OPS and 24% K% in his first 37 games, but he came alive after that, slashing .286/.374/.536 with 13 homers, 26 steals, and a 14.4%/10.7% K%/BB% in 72 games. He does it all with a mature plate approach, plus game power, and plus stolen base ability. Despite the 17.7% K% at Double-A on the season, he still hit only .251 because of an extreme 56.9% flyball percentage. If the balls stay dead, it could be an issue because he isn’t a huge raw power guy at 5’11”, 180 pounds. He also struggled when he got the call to Triple-A with his K% spiking to 30.3%, and putting up a 91 wRC+ in 22 games. The profile isn’t flawless, but he has a super fantasy friendly skillset, and he was a 21 year old in the upper minors, so further refinement is surely coming. He’s an elite prospect. 2023 Projection: 38/10/35/.236/.316/.421/12 Prime Projection: 89/26/88/.267/.341/.473/21

2) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.2 – It felt like everyone was just waiting for Dominguez to fail, the ole build em up so we can tear em down, but Dominguez refused to blink. He’s now officially living up to the hype with a big 2022, slashing .273/.376/.461 with 16 homers, 37 steals, and a 24.2%/13.6% K%/BB% in 120 games mostly at Single-A and High-A. He actually performed better at High-A with a 146 wRC+ and 18.5% K%, and he even made it Double-A for 5 games and wasn’t overmatched with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 5/3 K/BB (despite a .467 OPS). His tools are still big and back up the numbers with plus speed and plus power. If he keeps this up at Double-A as a 20 year old, he’ll be in the mix for #1 fantasy prospect in the game very quickly into 2023. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 88/28/93/.261/.345/.491/18

3) Oswald Peraza NYY, SS/2B, 22.10 – Like Volpe, Peraza started the year cold with a .583 OPS and 25.6% in his first 46 games at Triple-A before turning it around. He slashed .316/.382/.560 with 14 homers, 22 steals, and a 21.4% K% in his final 53 games at the level. He got called up to the majors in September and thrived, slashing .306/.404/.429 with 1 homer, 2 steals, and a 15.8%/10.5% K%/BB% in 57 PA. Statcast backs up the numbers with a well above average .343 xwOBA and 28.9 ft/sec sprint speed. The one red flag is his 81.6/84.0 MPH AVG/FB EV. That is quite low on 40 batted balls. It’s a small sample and he obviously has more power than that, but the power numbers he put up in the minors in 2021-22 could be misleading for what he will do in the majors. 2023 Projection: 58/14/59/.246/.303/.400/16 Prime Projection: 81/21/77/.269/.327/.441/22

4) Austin Wells NYY, C, 23.8 – The Yankees took their sweet old time getting Wells to Double-A, but he didn’t disappoint when he got there, maintaining his mature plate approach with a 23.5%/11.7% K%/BB%, hitting for power with 12 homers, and showing some base stealing skills too with 7 steals in 7 attempts over 55 games. He’s kept the ball off the ground his entire career, so he’s bound to do damage with the Yanks short porch. He’s also yet to play any position other than catcher, which could indicate the Yanks are dedicated to him behind the plate. He ranked 18th overall in my Top 65 Catchers: 2023 Deep Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings on Patreon. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 77/24/79/.258/.336/.457/8

5) Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 21.11 – Selected 25th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, the 6’7”, 225 pound Jones is the lefty version of Aaron Judge, even down to the fact they each hit “only” 12 homers in their draft year. It’s the hacky comp, but it’s also one that cuts through all the BS. He had some K issues in college with 64 K’s in 61 SEC games, and a high GB% kept the homers in check. His pro debut tamped down some of those concerns though as he played like a man amongst boys, slashing .344/.425/.538 with 4 homers, 12 steals, and a 18.9%/10.4% K%/BB% in 25 games at mostly Single-A. His power is huge enough to overcome a high GB% and he’s a good athlete with stolen base skills. He’ll get plenty of love in first year player drafts, but I suspect it won’t be enough. He’s currently 6th overall in my First Year Player Draft Rankings and is pushing Top 50 overall prospect status. Go after him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/27/86/.248/.333/.480/9

6) Everson Pereira NYY, OF, 22.0 – Pereira was not able to maintain his insane power surge in 2021 (20 homers in 49 games), hitting 14 homers with a 49.5% GB% in 102 games split between High-A and Double-A. The strikeout rate remained high as well with a 26.8% K% at High-A and 30.1% K% at Double-A. A high strikeout rate with a high groundball rate is not the best combo, but he has the type of raw power and speed (21 steals) to make it work a la Randy Arozarena. He still put up a 120 wRC+ and 128 wRC+ at High-A and Double-A, respectively. It’s a high risk, high reward profile who has still has a wide range of outcomes despite being 21 years old with a taste of the upper minors. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 79/23/77/.251/.332/.447/15

7) Matt Sauer NYY, RHP, 24.2 – Sauer’s 4.54 ERA in 109 IP at High-A (88.1 IP) and Double-A (20.2 IP) is not indicative of how good he looked. He has no joke stuff with a plus mid 90’s fastball that moves, a plus slider, and a lesser used quality changeup. Here is he striking out 17 batters in his 3rd game at Double-A to give you an idea of the upside we are talking about. He had a 26.5%/9.3% K%/BB% at High-A and 37%/7.6% K%/BB% at Double-A. His control/command is below average and he has an injury history (he left his final start of the year with an undisclosed injury), so the bullpen risk is high, but he’s a no doubt target of mine in the later rounds of off-season prospect drafts, especially because New York traded so much of their pitching depth at the deadline. He could also be nasty out of the pen. 2023 Projection: 2/4.21/1.34/32 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.81/1.28/169 in 155 IP

8) Estiven Florial NYY, OF, 25.4 – Florial burst on the scene in 2017 as the ultimate high risk, high reward prospect, and 6 years later he remains that way, although neither the risk nor the reward are quite as high. He had a strong season at Triple-A with a 124 wRC+ in 101 games, but the 30.4% K% is still in the danger zone and his power has yet to fully breakout with 15 homers. He got some run in the majors and the K% spiked to 37.1% with a negative 7 wRC+ in 35 PA. He’s a plus defensive centerfielder, so it seems he will be used as a bench outfielder earlier in his career, with the hope he continues to grow into his considerable raw offensive talent as a later career breakout. 2023 Projection: 19/5/22/.222/.294/.389/7 Prime Projection: 73/18/61/.238/.311/.413/16

9) Trey Sweeney NYY, SS, 22.11 – Sweeney didn’t have a huge year, which would have been nice to see considering his competition in college wasn’t that strong in the Ohio Valley Conference, but it was still solid, slashing .240/.349/.413 with 16 homers, 31 steals, and a 23.2%/13.0 K%/BB% in 111 games split between High-A (100 games) and Double-A (11 games). He’s 6’4”, 200 pounds with a pretty viscous lefty swing, so there is more power in here to unlock, and he doesn’t have any major strikeout or groundball issues. He’s not that fast, so the stolen bases are likely a mirage, but it’s a good sign that he can contribute there. I’m very happy with my evaluation of him last off-season, as I liked him, but didn’t go crazy over him at 16th overall in my 2022 FYPD ranks. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/22/81/.253/.327/.448/7

10) Keiner Delgado NYY, 2B/3B, 19.3 – Delgado was an 18 year old in the DSL, and he’s only 5’8”, 145 pounds, but everything else looks so good I just couldn’t leave him off this list. He slashed .310/.504/.506 with 3 homers, 34 steals, and an 11.8%/24.4% K%/BB% in 52 games. He’s an excellent athlete who hits the ball hard and has a 47.7% FB%, so he’ll get the most out of his raw power. Jose Altuve is the dream outcome, but there are lesser outcomes that would still make him an impact fantasy player. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 81/15/66/.268/.339/.420/19

11) Brandon Mayea NYY, OF, 17.5 – Mayea is my #2 overall international prospect behind Felnin Celesten. He might not be physically imposing at 5’11”, 170 pounds, but he’s far from weak with the ball exploding off his bat in every video I’ve seen. He has a good feel to hit with an easy and athletic righty swing to go along with plus speed. He’s expected to sign for over $4 million. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 82/22/76/.275/.345/.458/15

Just Missed

12) Roderick Arias NYY, SS, 18.7

13) Will Warren NYY, RHP, 23.9

14) Andres Chaparro NYY, 3B, 23.11

15) Luis Serna NYY, RHP, 18.9

16) Randy Vasquez NYY, RHP, 24.5

17) Drew Thorpe NYY, LHP, 22.6

18) Enmanuel Tejada NYY, SS, 18.3

19) Richard Fitts NYY, RHP, 23.4

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

It can be so tempting to pay up for a career year, but it almost always ends up being an overpay. Just look at Salvador Perez this year vs. what he did in 2021. It’s not like they don’t have the ability to repeat, because they obviously just did it, it’s just that literally everything has to go right from luck to health and everything in between. A career year in a contract year is the scariest, because who knows what extra work the guy was willing to put in behind the scenes that he may be a bit more lax on after he scores a $500 million contract. I’m obviously talking about Aaron Judge here, but it applies to every veteran who just had the best year of their career. You are way better off looking for the guy who has the ability to put up that career season, but didn’t for whatever reason, rather than going after the guy who just did it.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)