Tyler Soderstrom – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on August 8, 2022August 8, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (8/8/22)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (8/8/22):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT, INCLUDING:
-MID-SEASON TOP 314 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 437 JULY 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 10 TRADE NEGOTIATION TACTICS (one of my favorite things I’ve ever written)
-TOP 10 MID-SEASON TRADE TARGETS
-MID-SEASON OBP TOP 447 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-MID-SEASON POINTS/6+CATS/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 430 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 40 2023 FYPD RANKINGS

Jacob Berry MIA, OF/3B/1B, 21.2 – The 6th pick in this year’s draft, Berry has done nothing but struggle since entering pro ball. He went 0 for 3 yesterday at Single-A and is now 5 for 35 with 0 extra base hits and a 7/3 K/BB in 9 games split between rookie ball and Single-A. He’s not great on D, so the bat needs to really pop. It’s obviously too small of a sample to draw any conclusions, but I can’t help but have visions of JJ Bleday flash through my mind.

Ivan Melendez ARI, 1B, 22.7 – 0 for 3 with a 1/1 K/BB at Single-A. Talk about needing the bat to carry the day, Melendez is all bat as a 1B only prospect who got drafted as a college senior at 43rd overall. He’s 3 for 19 with 0 extra base hits and a 8/4 K/BB in 7 games split between rookie ball and Single-A. If he doesn’t start tearing apart the lower minors in short order, it will be hard for me to buy into him in off-season first year player drafts.

Peyton Graham DET, SS, 21.6 – One of my favorite targets from the 2022 draft class, ranking 17th overall on my Top 40 2023 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon), Graham is showing off the wheels early in his career, snagging his 2nd bag yesterday in 2 games at Single-A. He’s 2 for 7 with a 2/1 K/BB in the early going. He got drafted 51st overall, so the value should be there in off-season drafts.

Samuel Zavala SDP, OF, 18.0 – It took only 10 games in stateside rookie ball where Zavala put up a 1.033 OPS for him to get the call to Single-A, and he made his mark at the level yesterday with his first homer in 5 games. He’s not overmatched against the advanced competition at all with a .793 OPS and 5/4 K/BB. His value has the potential to absolutely explode down the stretch.

Jacob deGrom NYM, RHP, 33.11 – 5.1 IP, 1 hit, 2 ER, 12/1 K/BB vs. ATL. The fastball averaged 99.1 MPH and the slider put up a 90% whiff%. There is a reason I refused to budge his dynasty ranking even with the injury (36th overall on the Top 437 July Dynasty Baseball Rankings that dropped last week on Patreon), because the level of dominance is just silly. I also don’t take age into account as much for pitchers as I do hitters because pitching is so volatile and risky no matter what the age, and younger pitchers are arguably more risky than older pitchers.

Jesus Luzardo MIA, LHP, 24.8 – 7 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 6/1 K/BB vs. CHC. The fastball velocity hasn’t been what it once was with it sitting 95.5 MPH, but I’ll take that tradeoff any day of the week for the improved control he’s shown. An 11/1 K/BB in 12 IP since returning from injury is very encouraging. His stock is on the rise.

Triston McKenzie CLE, RHP, 25.0 – 8 IP, 2 hit, 0 ER, 8/1 K/BB vs. HOU. McKenzie found his control again this season with a sparkling 6.7% BB% (11.7% in 2021). His fastball isn’t good enough (92.4 MPH with a 91.4 MPH EV against) to consistently miss his spots. He’s not as good as his 3.16 ERA indicates (3.89 xERA), but he’s picking up from where he left off in his excellent 2020 rookie season.

Matt Manning DET, RHP, 24.6 – 7 IP, 4 hits, 0 ER, 7/3 K/BB vs. TB. Don’t get suckered in. The fastball sat only 92.2 MPH and the spin rates on his breaking balls were still poor. Stay away.

Alex Kirilloff MIN, 1B/OF, 24.6 – Kirilloff just can’t shake this wrist injury as he’s set to undergo season ending wrist surgery. It’s sadly the last straw if you were on the fence about keeping him or not. In a shallow to medium size league, it could be time to move on if there is something enticing out there on the waiver wire.

Jorge Mateo BAL, OF/2B/SS, 27.0 – 2 for 3 with a cute little 355 foot, 95.5 MPH homer. Mateo is running up his fantasy numbers with 11 homers and 26 steals, but he’s taking advantage of Baltimore’s last season of rebuilding, because a 85 wRC+ is not going to get the job done when they promote all of their top prospect talent next season. I know Baltimore is 4 games over .500, but Mike Elias was smart to not get caught up in the fairy tale season of plucky underdogs. It won’t be long before they are the hated favorites. Be careful trading for Mateo expecting full time playing time beyond this season.

Brett Baty NYM, 3B, 22.8 – The only thing missing was homer power, and it ain’t missing anymore as Baty demolished his 19th homer at Double-A out to deep centerfield off Deivi Garcia. He now has a .950 OPS in 89 games. He still has only a 30.3% FB%, and a 25.2% K% ain’t great, so a 5×5 BA league might not be his bread and butter, but he’s easily a Top 20 prospect in any league that values good real life hitters (Pts, 6+ cats, OBP, OPS etc …). And even in a 5×5 BA league he’s a damn good prospect. It’s time for Triple-A.

Luis Matos SFG, OF, 20.4 – Look who decided to finally show up to the 2022 season. Matos homered for the 2nd time in 3 games and now has a .903 OPS in his last 5 games at High-A. Problem is that it comes with a 6/1 K/BB, which makes it hard for me to really buy back in. He’s still flirting with Top 100 prospect status for me, so I’m not giving up on him, but it’s been a disaster year.

Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 19.11 – Lawlar is starting to come alive at High-A, going 4 for 6 with a homer and double yesterday. The overall line at the level is still rough with a .700 OPS and 23/4 K/BB in 19 games, but after putting up a 1.051 OPS at Single-A, it’s likely just a slump that coincided with him getting promoted. He’s a top 10 prospect.

Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 21.11 – 3 for 5 with a double, homer, and 2 K’s at Triple-A. People were starting to talk some smack about Carroll’s swing and miss, so of course not only did he improve that aspect of his game, but he did it after getting promoted to Triple-A with a 15/15 K/BB in 18 games. He’s the undisputed top prospect in the game, but he’s lucky Chourio went on a mini cold streak (1 for his last 14) because Chourio was charging hard for that top spot.

Tyler Soderstrom OAK, C/1B, 20.8 – Soderstrom got the call to Double-A last week and he now has a .857 OPS in 6 games after going 3 for 5 with a double last night. It comes with a 6/0 K/BB, which is basically exactly what he was doing at High-A with big power and a weak plate approach. He’s played more games at 1B than catcher this year, so at best you’re hoping for enough games behind the plate to qualify, but it’s not something I would bank on when planning the future of my team. I would assume he ends up 1B only and anything extra is icing on the cake.

Vaughn Grissom ATL, SS, 21.6 – Grissom unloaded for his 3rd homer in 21 games at Double-A. He’s had no problems at the level with a 137 wRC+ and 7 steals. He rose all the way to 33rd overall on the July Top 314 Dynasty Prospects Rankings (Patreon), and he will rise even higher on the August Rankings that drop tomorrow.

MJ Melendez KCR, C, 23.6 – 2 for 3 with a 406 foot bomb. Melendez is quietly having an excellent rookie season with a strong plate approach (25.9%/11.4% K%/BB%), a respectable whiff% (28.2%), and no doubt power (90.5 MPH EV). He’s one of the top young catchers in the game.

Tanner Bibee CLE, RHP, 23.4 – 6 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 6/0 K/BB at Double-A. Bibee’s value was already rising, and it’s set to take off now that he is dominating Double-A with a 1.71 ERA and 32/3 K/BB in 31.1 IP. The fastball has jumped up into the mid 90’s this year and he’s in one of the best pitching development organizations in the game. He’s a pick up in any size league.

DL Hall BAL, LHP, 23.10 – 5.1 IP, 5 hits, 2 ER, 8/3 K/BB at Triple-A. I hope you like your strikeouts with a side of walks because a 14% BB% is definitely worrisome.

Matthew Liberatore STL, LHP, 22.9 – 6 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 10/3 K/BB at Triple-A. Despite the great start, 2022 has been a step back for Liberatore with him struggling in both the majors (5.33 ERA) and the minors (4.77 ERA). He’s still a talented prospect, but if you can get good value for him based on his name value, I would jump on it.

Kerry Carpenter DET, OF, 24.11 – Carpenter hit a laser to the opposite field for his 2nd homer in 2 games and 29th homer in 95 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. His plate approach seriously improved when he hit Triple-A with a 17/17 K/BB in 33 games. Detroit’s entire roster is basically wide open, making Carpenter a good add if you need power down the stretch.

Wenceel Perez DET, 2B, 22.9 – Continuing the take a shot on fringy-ish Detroit prospects theme, Perez ripped his 5th homer in 35 games at Double-A. He’s had strong contact rates his entire career (13.4%/10/1% K%/BB% at Double-A), and his power is ticking up this year with his groundball percentage dropping all the way to 32.1% (51% in 2021). He’s fast, but his stolen base track record in the minors makes me hesitant to project 20+ steals for him (5 for 9 at Double-A). He’s likely a low upside solid across the board type.

Darick Hall PHI, 1B, 27.1 – 2 for 4 with 2 bombs off Cory Abbott. Hall has done nothing but destroy baseballs since getting called up with an elite 92.2/97.5 MPH AVG/FB EV, and it’s led to a .933 OPS in 109 PA. He looks like strictly a platoon bat, and a 27.5%/4.6% K%/BB% is going to make his BA a problem long term, but he’s proving he can mash with the best of them.

Peyton Burdick MIA, OF, 25.4 – 1 for 3 with a 108.6 MPH, 421 foot homer for his first MLB bomb in 3 games. He hit .229 at Triple-A, so he’ll tank your BA, but he has value in an OBP league with high walk rates his entire career. He’s worth a shot in a medium to deep OBP league.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on May 2, 2022May 2, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/2/22)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/2/22):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED APRIL 2022 TOP 414 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 300 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS COMING TOMORROW
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 21.4 – The umpires have been screwing Julio all season, and he took out his frustration on poor Sandy Alcantara yesterday, absolutely drilling a 110.4 MPH, 450 foot bomb for his first of many MLB homers. He’s been hot over his last nine games, slashing .364/.432/.546 with an 8/3 K/BB. He leads all of baseball with 9 steals, and his 29.9 ft/sec sprint speed is in the top 1% of the league. Pitchers better hope the umps keep expanding the strike zone on him, because it’s about to get ugly.

Jarred Kelenic SEA, OF, 22.9 – Speaking of getting ugly, Kelenic went 0 for 3 with 2 K’s and now has a .508 OPS with an 85.2 MPH EV and 38.4% whiff% on the year. There are no silver linings. He dropped to 68th overall on my the Updated Dynasty Rankings over on my Patreon a few weeks ago, and he’ll drop even further on the next update.

J.P. Crawford SEA, SS, 27.4 – Crawford has been molten hot, going 2 for 3 with a homer, double and walk. He now has 4 homers with a 1.091 OPS and 9.7%/11/8% K%/BB% in 22 games. I’m struggling to buy into the breakout because of an 85.1 MPH EV and 20.8% whiff%. I would sell high if you can.

Andrew Painter PHI, RHP, 19.0 – Painter’s dominance continued, going 4 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 6/2 K/BB at Single-A. His fastball sat 96.5 MPH and put up a 38% whiff%. He now leads all minor league pitchers with more than 2 IP with a negative 0.68 xFIP. I joked on Twitter last week that he’s been so dominant the advanced stats just said fuck it, they should really start taking runs away from the other team. He’ll be pushing Top 50 prospect status when my Updated Top 300 Prospects Rankings hit Patreon tomorrow.

Jackson Jobe DET, RHP, 19.8 – Jobe is trying his best to keep up with Painter to hold his crown as the top rated high school pitcher from the 2021 draft class, going 3 IP with 3 hits, 2 ER, and a 3/1 K/BB. The fastball sat 95.8 MPH and his slider continues to spin enough to make a guy dizzy with a 3084 spin rate. It’s still close, but I think I prefer Painter right now.

Michael Harris ATL, OF, 21.2 – The game power has arrived in all it’s glory as Harris lifted off twice yesterday for his 3rd and 4th homers of the year at Double-A. He walloped a 432 foot shot to leadoff the game and then dug one almost out of the dirt off a sidewinder righty for his 2nd. The plate approach (18.8%/8.3% K%/BB%) and speed (9 steals in 21 games) are working too. He’s dotting his i’s, crossing his t’s, and semi circling his p’s.

Matt McLain CIN, SS, 22.8 – McLain’s been minding his P’s and Q’s at Double-A as well, matching Harris with a 2 homer game. He took both homers out to deep centerfield. How much power he would get to was a question coming out of the draft, but he’s had no issues with 5 homers and a 35% GB% in 20 games.

Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 22.2 – I’m all out of expressions involving the alphabet, but the only letter Casas needs to focus on is K. Bobby Dalbec’s K’s that is. Casas is coming for the starting 1B job with his 5th homer in 23 games at Triple-A while Dalbec is sitting on a 29 wRC+ with a 30.7% K% in the majors.

Ryan Helsley STL, Closer Committee, 27.9 – Picked up his first save, going 2 perfect innings with 4 K’s. Helsley’s been silly good all year with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 16/0 K/BB in 8.1 IP. His fastball is up to 98.7 MPH and his cutter and curve are putting up a 55.6% and 50% whiff%, respectively. He’s likely in a closer committee right now, but he has the chance to pull away with the role.

Triston McKenzie CLE, RHP, 24.9 – McKenzie lost his control for the first time in his career in 2021, and it’s back this year, going 6.1 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER, and a 7/1 K/BB vs. Oakland. He has an above average 7.4% BB% on the year. His whiff% is only sitting at 22.7%, but as long as the control is there, he should be solid.

Josh Winder MIN, RHP, 25.6 – Winder got his first MLB start and impressed, going 6 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER and 7/1 K/BB vs. Tampa. The fastball sat 94.9 MPH, the slider had a 76 MPH EV against, and the curve and change handled the whiffs, leading to a 27% whiff% overall. He has good stuff with a starter’s repertoire. It all seems to add up to a rock solid mid rotation starter.

George Kirby SEA, RHP, 24.2 – 5 IP, 4 hits, 2 ER, 7/0 K/BB at Triple-A. His fastball sat 95.7 MPH and the slider induced weak contact with a 83 MPH EV against. The K/BB numbers have been pristine all year with a 34.4%/5.4% K%/BB% in 24.2 IP. It might not be long before he takes Brash’s spot in the rotation.

Nick Pratto KCR, 1B, 23.7 – Pratto went deep yesterday and has now homered in back to back games for his 4th and 5th homers in 21 games at Triple-A. He’s still striking out too much with a 33.3% K%, but after striking out 15 times in his first 8 games, he’s brought it down to a more reasonable 16 times over his last 13 games.

Vinnie Pasquantino KCR, 1B, 24.6 – The competition is on for Kansas City’s first baseman of the future job. Pasquantino ripped his 4th homer in 22 games at Triple-A, and his comes with a sparkling 10.9%/16.3% K%/BB%. He’s not as good of a defender, which could still give the edge to Pratto.

Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 21.0 – It didn’t take long for Volpe to shake off his slow start at Double-A, homering for his 3rd time yesterday. More importantly, he didn’t strikeout once and now has a 6/10 K/BB in his last 9 games to bring his season K%/BB% up to a very good 25.3%/16.1%.

Pedro Leon HOU, OF/SS, 23.10 – The ball has been exploding off Leon’s bat this year, and he crushed his 3rd homer on a 110.4 MPH rocket. The strikeouts remain a problem with a 32.3% K%, but at least we know he’s going to do damage when he does make contact.

Tyler Soderstrom OAK, C, 20.5 – Soderstrom got ahold of his 3rd homer in 19 games at High-A, but it’s been a struggle otherwise with a 31.5%/8.2% K%/BB%, 50% GB% and 72 wRC+.

Aeverson Arteaga SFG, SS, 19.2 – Arteaga’s been hitting the ball very hard all year, and he tacked on his 3rd homer on a screaming liner. He has a 104 wRC+ in 18 games at Single-A, but he’s had strikeout problems with a 35.4% K%.

Alex Ramirez NYM, OF, 19.2 – Ramirez cranked a 103.9 MPH, 382 foot shot for his first homer of the year in 18 games at Single-A. He’s been much improved his 2nd time around at the level with a 159 wRC+ and 19.5%/4.9% K%/BB%.

Seth Johnson TB, RHP, 23.7 – 3.2 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 7/2 K/BB at High-A. Johnson has been a strikeout and walk machine all year with a 40.4%/15.4% K%/BB% in 12.1 IP. He features a plus fastball/slider combo and is trending toward some kind of multi inning role. Upside is high though if he can improve his control.

Andrew Abbott CIN, LHP, 22.10 – 6 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 10/1 K/BB at High-A. This is his 3rd straight start with over 10 K’s and now has a 42.7%/8.5% K%/BB% in 21 IP. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff with a low 90’s fastball, and while his control has been solid he’s not a pinpoint control guy, so I’m not going bonkos over the hot start. Regardless, his stock is definitely up in the early going.

Royber Salinas ATL, RHP, 21.1 – 5 IP, 1 hit, 1 ER, 9/1 K/BB at Single-A. The control was much improved in this one and the fastball/breaking ball combo was still racking up whiffs. I would like to see him start picking on people his own size (and age), but the stuff is undeniably electric.

Luis Rodriguez LAD, OF, 19.8 – Rodriguez got on the board with his first homer of the year at Single-A. His 30.9% K% in rookie ball last year was a little concerning, but it’s improved a bit in full season ball with a 27.3% K%, and he’s walking like crazy with a 22.7% BB%. He’s sitting on a 151 wRC+ in 19 games.

Michael Massey KCR, 2B, 24.1 – Checking in at #840 on my offseason Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings, Massey is off to a strong start at Double-A, hitting his 5th homer and nabbing his 3rd bag in 20 games. The plus contact rates have transferred with a 19.4% K%, but so has the below average walk rates (5.4% BB%). He might end up a Quad-A type, but he has fantasy friendly upside if he can find playing time.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on January 4, 2021March 3, 2021 by Michael Halpern

Top 50 2020/21 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings

The Sneak Peek Series continues with the Top 50 2020/21 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings. The full FYPD list will be released concurrently with the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings, expected to be out the week after the Super Bowl, sometime between February 8th-14th (2020’s list was out on Feb. 9th). Here is the Top 50 2020/21 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR UP TO DAILY WEEKDAY CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE SEASON, INCLUDING ARTICLES, PODCASTS, RANKINGS, AND OTHER COOL STUFF I THINK UP ALONG THE WAY

Click here for the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

Player Name TEAM, POSITION, AGE (Years.Months on 2021 Opening Day – Months are on a scale of 0-11 … I know it is not mathematically correct, but I do all of this manually)

Projections (Hitters): R/HR/RBI/AVG/OBP/SLG/SB
(Pitchers): Wins/ERA/WHIP/K/Saves

*Prime Projections – These projections are meant to give you a general idea of what I think about a prospect’s future stat profile in a relatively good outcome scenario. I find this helpful as a quick reference to see how a prospect’s tools/skills translate to fantasy categories.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR UP TO DAILY WEEKDAY CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE SEASON, INCLUDING ARTICLES, PODCASTS, RANKINGS, AND OTHER COOL STUFF I THINK UP ALONG THE WAY

1) Spencer Torkelson DET, 3B/1B, 21.7 – Selected 1st overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Tork launched 54 homers in 129 games at Arizona State. He’s a big bodied power hitter with patience, below average speed, and a BA that shouldn’t hurt you. The no brainer pick for #1 overall. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 89/35/102/.270/.353/.529/3

2) Austin Martin TOR, OF, 22.0 – Selected 5th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft but signed for the 2nd largest signing bonus. Martin has a quick bat with natural loft, an advanced plate approach and above average speed. If power fully develops, he will pass Tork as an elite all category stud. A great consolation prize if you missed out on the #1 pick. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 93/23/82/.284/.358/.455/13

3) Zac Veen COL, OF, 19.4 – Selected 9th overall, the 6’4”, 190 pound Veen has a lightening quick lefty swing with natural loft. His patient plate approach, good feel to hit, and at least plus power potential gives him the ingredients to turn into a heart of the order beast. Combine all that with Coors, and Veen has the highest upside on the list. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 86/28/93/.270/.342/.491/10

4) Ha-Seong Kim SD, SS/2B, 25.5 – At 5’9”, 167 pounds Kim has been one of the best players in the KBO since he was 19 years old. He took his game to the next level in 2020, slashing .306/.397/.523 with 30 homers, 23 steals, and a 68/75 K/BB in 138 games. He’s a safe proximity play with the ability to contribute in every category, and there is some nice upside too if the stats translate better than expected. 2021 Projection: 79/19/71/.271/.337/.433/15

5) Nick Gonzales PIT, 2B/SS, 21.10 – Selected 7th overall, the 5’10”, 190 pound Gonzales put up insane numbers in an extreme hitter’s environment at New Mexico State, rocking 12 homers with a .448 BA and 10/21 K/BB in 16 games before the season got shutdown. He performed well in the wood bat Cape Cod League too with 7 homers, a .351 BA and a 22/20 K/BB in 42 games. He has one of the best hit tools in the draft and while he isn’t projected for huge homer or steal totals, he should be an all category stat stuffer. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 86/21/74/.281/.348/.448/9

6) Asa Lacy KC, LHP, 21.10 – Selected 4th overall, Lacy is a 6’4” lefty with a nasty mid 90’s fastball and two potentially plus secondaries in his changeup and slider. His only 4 starts in 2020 were absolutely dominant with a 0.75 ERA and 46/8 K/BB in 24 IP. Walk rates were high in college with a 4.0 BB/9 in 152 IP, but his control/command is better than that number indicates. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 13/3.66/1.23/211 in 186 IP

7) Pete-Crow Armstrong NYM, OF, 19.0 -Selected 19th overall, Armstrong stands out for his plus speed, plus defense, and strong track record of hitting. Power hasn’t been a big part of his game, but he has recently added muscle onto his projectable 6’1” frame, and a 99 MPH exit velocity mark at a 2019 Perfect Game event is damn good. Armstrong is my favorite target in first year player drafts relative to consensus. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 88/18/73/.274/.340/.428/21

8) Max Meyer MIA, RHP, 22.1 – Selected 3rd overall, the 6’0”, 196 pound Meyer is an excellent athlete with an elite fastball/slider combo and a changeup that has the ability to develop into a legitimate third pitch. There is some bullpen risk, but we’ve seen predominantly two pitch starters given the chance to start of late and thrive. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 12/3.74/1.22/191 in 172 IP

9) Emerson Hancock SEA, RHP, 21.10 – Selected 6th overall, Hancock is a 6’4” righty with plus command of a mid 90’s fastball and plus changeup. Slider is inconsistent and will be the key to reaching his full potential. Watching some of his better starts makes you want to place him as the top overall pitcher, but the consistency hasn’t been there. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 12/3.83/1.20/186 in 178 IP

10) Garrett Mitchell MIL, OF, 22.7 – Selected 20th overall, Mitchell builds his game around double plus speed and plus centerfield defense. At 6’3”, 215 pounds the plus raw power is in there, but he hasn’t been able to tap into yet with a low launch angle and 0 homers in 15 games in 2020 (6 homers in 62 game in 2019). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 82/16/66/.266/.328/.419/24

11) Cristian Hernandez CHC, SS, 17.3 – At 6’2”, 175 pounds Hernandez takes vicious hacks at the dish, foreshadowing monster power potential when his projectable frame fills out. He also gets high marks for his athleticism, feel to hit, and plus speed. The top international prospects consistently get underrated in first year player drafts, so while the risk is high, the discount in drafts mitigates that. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 83/26/87/.273/.341/.479/14

12) Wilman Diaz LAD, SS, 17.4 – At 6’2”, 170 pounds Diaz is a plus athlete who has displayed a good feel to hit and the ability to hit it with authority in Venezuelan youth leagues. The power potential is plus as he gains strength, and he should retain enough speed to steal 10+ bags even as he gains weight. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 87/22/79/.281/.352/.462/14

13) Garrett Crochet CHW, LHP, 21.9 – Selected 11th overall, Crochet made it all the way up to the Majors and unleashed an unhittable, double plus 100.1 MPH fastball. He’s never been a full time starter, so bullpen risk is high, although his upside would be considerable as a closer. Injury risk is high too as shoulder soreness delayed the start of his college season and he suffered a flexor strain to his forearm to end his season during the MLB playoffs. 2021 Projection: 2/4.23/1.33/34 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.77/1.28/185 in 161 IP

14) Heston Kjerstad BAL, OF, 22.2 – Selected 2nd overall, the 6’3”, 220 pound Kherstad has at least plus power and put up impressive home run totals from day 1 in the SEC, knocking 37 homers in 150 career games. The K/BB numbers are suspect (129/54), but he was in the midst of a Junior year breakout before the season got shutdown (6 homers with a 9/7 K/BB in 16 games). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 73/28/88/.251/.320/.482/3

15) Austin Hendrick CIN, OF, 19.10 – Selected 12th overall, Hendrick generates incredible bat speed with at least plus power potential. He put up a 105 MPH exit velocity at a Perfect Game event in 2019, which puts him in elite territory for his class. On the downside, there is some swing and miss concerns, he’s old for his class, and he hasn’t consistently faced the toughest competition. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 76/29/89/.252/.334/.490/6

16) Bryce Jarvis ARI, RHP, 23.3 – Selected 18th overall, Jarvis took a major step forward in 2020 with his fastball ticking up into the mid 90’s. He refined his breaking balls to become above average pitches and showed much improved control. He didn’t have the opportunity to prove he can do it for more than 27 IP, but he now has the chance for 4 above average pitches (fastball, curve, slider, change) with above average control/command. Along with Pete-Crow Armstrong, Jarvis is a player I’m targeting everywhere relative to price. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 12/3.82/1.26/188 in 172 IP

17) Mick Abel PHI, RHP, 19.8 – Selected 15th overall, Abel is your prototypical projectable high school pitcher at 6’5”, 190 pounds with a potentially plus 3 pitch mix (fastball, slider, change). He throws strikes but he’s more control over command right now. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 13/3.72/1.23/192 in 184 IP

18) Carlos Colmenarez TB, SS, 17.4 – At 5’10”, 175 pounds Colmenarez has a quick, compact lefty swing with natural loft that should lead to more power as he ages. He’s hit well in games and is an average runner with above average potential. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 80/23/80/.275/.343/.453/10

19) Robert Hassell SD, OF, 19.8 – Selected 8th overall, Hassell has the consensus top hit tool in the high school class, but hasn’t hit for very much power and doesn’t project for huge power numbers down the line either. A 91 MPH top exit velocity mark at Perfect game events in 2019 isn’t bad, but it’s not great either. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 87/16/69/.286/.348/.416/15

20) Austin Wells NYY, C, 21.9 – Selected 28th overall, the lefty hitting Wells is an offensive minded catcher with a patient approach and power to all fields. College home run totals don’t exactly jump out at you (14 homers in 112 games including the Cape), and there are strikeout issues (103 K’s), but the Yankee Stadium short porch should help the power play up and his ability to hit to all fields gives him the chance to hit for average even with high strikeout totals. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 77/24/83/.268/.341/.458/5

21) Tomoyuki Sugano FA, RHP, 31.6 – One of the best pitchers in Japan since 2013, Sugano is known for his pinpoint control (1.6 BB/9) rather than gaudy strikeout totals (8.6 K/9). He throws a low 90’s fastball with two different sliders and a split finger as his best secondary. 2021 Projection: 10/4.28/1.27/148 in 162 IP

22) Reid Detmers LAA, LHP, 21.9 – Selected 10th overall, Detmers is a 6’2” lefty with plus command over low 90’s heat and a deadly curveball. He’s polish over stuff, but it didn’t stop him from piling up K’s in college (19.6 K/9 in 22 IP in 2020). Change has the potential to be above average while the slider lags behind. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 11/3.92/1.26/188 in 179 IP

23) Yoelqui Cespedes CHW, OF, 23.6 – Cespedes recently packed on muscle weight and revamped his swing in order to get more power out of his 5’9”, 205 pound frame. He’s a plus runner and he has the bloodlines, so while he is mostly still a mystery and I see he is getting ranked lower in other places, I’m willing to take my shot at this point in the draft. You also won’t have to wait 4-5 years to see what you have. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 76/19/72/.255/.323/.430/16

24) Pedro Leon HOU, OF, 22.10 – Leon is an explosive athlete who has dominated in Cuba over two seasons, slashing .359/.420/.678 with 21 homers, 8 steals and a 46/20 K/BB in 65 games. He doesn’t have a long professional track record and the hit tool is questionable, but the upside is high. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 77/22/74/.243/.326/.443/12

25) Pedro Pineda OAK, OF, 17.7 – Pineda has possibly the highest upside in the international class with a plus power/speed combo and a quick bat that is geared for flyballs. He’s had some swing and miss problems and is still raw at the plate, so the risk is high. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 73/24/81/.248/.327/.458/15

26) Aaron Sabato MIN, 1B, 21.10 – Selected 27th overall, Sabato is a 6’2”, 230 pound 1B only prospect who smashed 25 homers in 83 games in the ACC. He’s a patient hitter with some swing and miss concerns. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 68/25/81/.252/.337/.469/0

27) Justin Foscue TEX, 2B/3B, 22.0 – Selected 14th overall, Foscue has the potential for plus hit but doesn’t have big power or speed. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 83/19/71/.276/.339/.434/5

28) Ed Howard CHC, SS, 19.8 – Selected 16th overall, Howard’s best skill is his plus shortstop defense. The bat isn’t as strong, although he has hit well against top competition and will certainly add power at 6’2”, 185 pounds. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 79/20/77/.264/.332/.444/9

29) Nick Bitsko TB, RHP, 18.10 – Selected 24th overall, Bitsko is one of the youngest players in the draft due to reclassifying and coming out a year early. At 6’4”, 220 pounds he has prototypical starter size with a fastball that has touched 98 MPH and features a nasty curveball as his money pitch. He throws strikes and shows good feel on his lesser used changeup. Underwent surgery to repair a labrum issue in December and is expected to miss some of 2021. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 11/3.93/1.29/181 in 178 IP

30) Isaiah Greene NYM, OF, 19.7 – Selected 69th overall, Greene is a 6’1”, 180 pound lefty with plus speed and a swing geared for contact. He’s a great athlete with room to fill out his frame, so the power may come. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 82/17/68/.272/.336/.419/20

31) Jordan Walker STL, 3B, 18.10 – Selected 21st overall, Walker is 6’5”, 220 pounds with a quick swing and plus power. Like many hitters this tall, there are questions about the ultimate hit tool. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 75/25/82/.261/.330/.467/7

32) Jake Vogel LAD, OF, 19.6 – Selected 100th overall, Vogel’s calling card is his double plus speed and excellent athleticism. He’s only 5’11”, 165 pounds, but he has sneaky pop evidenced by a top exit velocity of 97 MPH at a 2019 Perfect game event, which puts him in the top 4% of his class. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 77/18/73/.262/.326/.420/22

33) Tanner Burns CLE, RHP, 22.3 – Selected 36th overall, Burns has a history of excellent production in the SEC with a pitching line of 2.86/1.17/210/67 in 188.2 career IP. He has plus command over a fastball he can ramp up to 97 MPH, to go along with a plus breaking ball and average change. He’s on the small side at 6’0”, 215 pounds and had shoulder problems in 2019, so durability is a concern. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.15/1.27/162 in 168 IP

34) Maikol Hernandez BAL, SS, 17.6 – At 6’3”, 175 pounds Hernandez has loads of upside with plus speed and the potential for plus power. He’s currently an all fields, line drive hitter who consistently makes hard contact. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 73/24/78/.259/.327/.452/13

35) Cade Cavalli WASH, RHP, 22.7 – Selected 22nd overall, Cavalli has a prototypical starter build at 6’4”, 226 pounds with mid 90’s heat, two swing and miss breaking balls, and a developing changeup. He’s had injury issues which has prevented him from pitching very much and there are control problems too, so the risk is high. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.06/1.33/155 in 156 IP

36) Bobby Miller LAD, RHP, 22.0 – Selected 29th overall, Miller is 6’5”, 220 pounds with a plus fastball that reaches the upper 90’s, a plus slider, and a potentially plus changeup. 2020 was the first year he was going to be a full time starter, and his delivery indicates some bullpen risk. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/3.92/1.29/149 in 151 IP

37) Zach DeLoach SEA, OF, 22.7 – Selected 43rd overall, DeLoach exploded in the 2019 Cape Cod League with a .353/.428/.541 triple-slash after disappointing with a .611 OPS in the SEC earlier that year. He carried over the Cape Cod league success in 2020 with a 1.336 OPS, 6 steals and a 3/14 K/BB in 18 games. He doesn’t have any elite tools, but has the chance to be an all category contributor. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/20/76/.267/.329/.437/10

38) Tyler Soderstrom OAK, C, 19.4 – Selected 26th overall, Soderstrom is an offensive minded catcher with the potential to hit for both average and power, but is not a lock to stick behind the plate. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 68/22/76/.268/.335/.446/4

39) Jhonny Piron TB, OF, 17.2 – At 6’1”, 165 pounds Piron is tooled up with excellent athleticism, plus speed and power projection, but needs to continue refining his hit tool. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 77/20/74/.256/.323/.442/14

40) Jared Shuster ATL, LHP, 22.8 – Selected 25th overall, Shuster showed dramatically improved control in the 2019 Cape Cod League (1.4 BB/9 in 32 IP), and not only did he maintain that in 26.1 IP in 2020 (1.4 BB/9), but he also increased his fastball velocity by about 4 MPH with the ability to hit 97 MPH. His best pitch is a plus changeup to go along with an average slider. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.21/1.30/168 in 173 IP

41) Jared Kelley CHW, RHP, 19.5 – Selected 47th overall, Kelley throws mid 90’s gas with a plus changeup, but lacks feel on his breaking ball. The upside is considerable if the breaking ball improves, but if it doesn’t he may end up in the pen. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 10/3.98/1.31/158 in 155 IP

42) Cole Wilcox TB, RHP, 21.9 – Selected 80th overall, Wilcox was starting to show improved control with only 2 walks in 23 IP before the season got shutdown (5.7 BB/9 in 2019). It’s a good sign as the stuff is nasty with a mid 90’s fastball, potentially plus slider and developing change. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.08/1.33/161 in 158 IP

43) Jordan Westburg BAL, SS, 22.1 – Selected 30th overall, Westburg has the raw talent to be a plus power/speed combo, but he hasn’t been able to tap into his raw power with only 10 homers in 124 NCAA games, and the hit tool is also a concern with high strikeout rates throughout his career. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 75/15/68/.246/.318/.420/13

44) Dillon Dingler DET, C, 22.6 – Selected 38th overall, Dingler was just starting to tap into his raw power in 2020 with 5 homers in 13 games. He’s a plus athlete for a catcher with the chance to steal a handful of bases, which is always nice to get from your catcher position. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 69/17/63/.260/.323/.421/7

45) Clayton Beeter LAD, RHP, 22.6 – Selected 66th overall, Beeter has impressive stuff with a mid to upper 90’s fastball and the potential for two plus breaking balls. 2020 was his first year as a starter in college, and while the numbers are impressive (2.14 ERA with a 33/4 K/BB), it came in only 21 IP and he had a 8.7 BB/9 in 20.2 IP in 2019. Reliever risk is high. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 7/3.83/1.32/141 in 127 IP

46) Hudson Haskin BAL, OF, 22.3 – Selected 39th overall, Haskin has shown the ability to hit for hard contact with strong plate approach numbers at Tulane, slashing .363/.457/.612 with 11 homers and a 39/40 K/BB in 73 career games. He’s a plus defender with plus speed although it only resulted in 5 career NCAA stolen bases. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 76/18/70/.263/.324/.426/9

47) Jared Jones PIT, RHP, 19.8 – Selected 44th overall, Jones is a great athlete with a mid to upper 90’s fastball, potentially plus slider and developing change. Control has been spotty and he doesn’t have ideal size at 6’1”, 180 pounds. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/4.11/1.34/154 in 151 IP

48) Owen Caissie CHC, OF, 18.9 – Selected 45th overall, Caissie is young for his high school class and has plus raw power with above average speed at 6’4”, 190 pounds, but it comes with strikeout issues. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 73/24/79/.238/.321/.462/9

49) Jordan Nwogu CHC, OF, 22.1 – Selected 88th overall, Nwogu is 6’3”, 235 pounds with a plus power/speed combo and very strong numbers in his 3 years in the Big Ten, slashing .334/.430/.545 with 20 homers, 30 steals, and a 96/63 K/BB in 125 career games. There are some concerns over his swing, but the upside is considerable. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/23/77/.253/.325/.457/14

50) Blaze Jordan BOS, 3B, 18.3 – Selected 89th overall, Jordan has been known for his prodigious raw power for years now, consistently putting up impressive exit velocity numbers, but limited defensive value means he’s likely going to have to hit his ceiling to see everyday at-bats. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 67/25/79/.250/.325/.473/4

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)