Posted on by Michael Halpern

A Top 20 Sneak Peek of the 2020 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

The 2020 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings will be finished in late January/early February. I’m going to drop some sneak peeks leading up to that, starting with the top 20:

1) Ronald Acuna ATL, OF, 22.3 – Combination of age and stolen base upside is what separates Acuna from the pack, but a 26.3% K% presents a risk that other candidates for the top spot don’t have. In anything other than a 5×5 league (points, OBP), I would look elsewhere with the top pick. 2020 Projection: 111/37/98/.285/.367/.524/31

2) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 28.8 – Turning 29 during the 2020 season, career low 13 steal attempts, and a much younger crop of generational talent establishing themselves in 2019 are why Trout is no longer the obvious #1 pick in dynasty. I still have him #1 in redrafts. 2020 Projection: 113/46/107/.299/.442/.631/15

3) Juan Soto WASH, OF, 21.5 – Flipped hitting profile from rookie season, upping FB% to 37.2% (from 28.8%) and lowering GB% to 41.6% (from 53.7%). 97 MPH FB/LD exit velocity is 2.1 MPH higher than Trout and 1.4 MPH higher than Acuna. Soto is my #1 pick in non 5×5 dynasty leagues. 2020 Projection: 108/36/105/.296/.404/.553/10

4) Cody Bellinger LAD, 1B/OF, 24.9 – Career bests in BB% (14.4%), K% (16.4%), average exit velocity (90.7 MPH), and launch angle (17.6 degree launch). On the flip side, OPS declined every month of the season (1.397, .998, .967, .952, .918, .891, playoffs-.549). 2020 Projection: 110/43/110/.288/.383/.598/14

5) Christian Yelich MIL, OF, 28.4 – Here is what I wrote about Yelich in my 2019 Top 1,000: “… posted the lowest GB% of his career by a good margin in August and September (46% and 44%, respectively). If he can carry those gains over a full season, the power breakout may not be a complete outlier.” That is exactly what happened, with Yelich posting a 43.2% GB% and hitting a career high 44 homers. The fractured knee cap that ended his season supposedly won’t have any long term effects. 2020 Projection: 111/37/104/.309/.410/.605/20

6) Mookie Betts BOS, OF, 27.6 – As a Yankees fan, I pray to the baseball gods every night that Boston trades Mookie Betts for “can’t miss” pitching prospects. 2020 Projection: 119/33/86/.310/.402/.552/22

7) Trea Turner WASH, SS, 26.9 – Power took a big step forward, raising average exit velocity 2.5 MPH to 90.3 MPH. Remains a speedster with the 2nd fastest sprint speed in baseball, behind only Tim Locastro (Buxton is a close 3rd).  2020 Projection: 104/24/77/.293/.350/.488/41

8) Fernando Tatis Jr. SD, SS, 21.3 – With a 29.6% K% and a 6.9 degree launch angle, you can look at Tatis’ 2019 in one of two ways. Either you think he got lucky and there is serious regression coming, or you are scared at the thought of what his stats might look like when he inevitably improves on those underlying numbers. I’m in camp #2. 2020 Projection: 101/35/99/.274/.348/.531/26

9) Francisco Lindor CLE, SS, 26.4 – Small step back in K%, BB%, GB% and sprint speed, but I’m willing to write that off to his early season calf injury considering overall production remained strong. 2020 Projection: 104/32/87/.285/.349/.520/20

10) Trevor Story COL, SS, 27.4 – Carried over the major improvements he made in K% and stolen bases in 2018 into 2019. One of the premier power/speed combos in the game. 2020 Projection: 100/36/100/.283/.354/.546/22

11) Wander Franco TB, SS, 19.1 – Acuna and Soto might be old news in 2 years if Franco reaches his upside of plus to double plus all category production. He very well may be the true heir to Trout’s throne. 2020 Projection: September-13/4/9/.277/.341/.445/4 Prime Projection: 114/32/113/.316/.405/.595/19

12) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 3B, 21.0 – Modest rookie season, but make no mistake, the thunder is coming. 2020 Projection: 95/32/106/.298/.373/.538/2

13) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 23.5 – Ranked 16th overall in average exit velocity (92.1 MPH) and cut K% by 7.7% to 17%. 2020 Projection: 98/33/104/.302/.360/.549/7

14) Alex Bregman HOU, 3B, 26.0 – Gets dinged in the rankings because of the possibility of a suspension and the unknown of how much cheating improved his stats. Relatively low 92.3 MPH FB/LD exit velocity is another red flag. 2020 Projection: 103/30/101/.291/.403/.538/9

15) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 27.6 – Armageddon 1st half (.218/.308/.344) followed by a beastly 2nd half (.327/.365/.739) that was interrupted and ultimately cut short by a fractured hamate bone. Like Bregman, low FB/LD exit velocity (91.8 MPH) indicates some power downside. 2020 Projection: 98/30/93/.279/.358/.518/25

16) Nolan Arenado COL, 3B, 29.0 – Steady as they come. 40 homers with a high average. 2020 Projection: 103/39/116/.298/.375/.568/2

17) Austin Meadows TB, OF, 24.11 – When I ranked Meadows 54th overall in last year’s ranking, someone asked me what I was smoking. Apparently I was toking on salvia divinorum, aka, sage of the diviners, aka it’s a plant you smoke and then you hallucinate, because Meadows broke out with a .291 BA, 33 homers, and 12 steals. He hits it very hard, hits it in the air, has speed, and has a strong plate approach. 2020 Projection: 93/32/96/.282/.351/.531/15

18) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 27.6 – Strikeout rate going in the wrong direction (26.1%), but power, speed, and walks are all in peak form. 2020 Projection: 100/36/103/.265/.381/.533/14

19) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 22.9 – Hitting profile looks mighty similar to Bryce Harper without the speed. 2020 Projection: 93/35/104/.273/.369/.542/4

20) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 27.11 – Led the league in average exit velocity every year since getting called up in 2016. Smashed 15 homers in final 33 games to salvage what was shaping up to be a mediocre season. 2020 Projection: 107/42/101/.263/.370/.545/7

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

March 2019 Top 100 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking: 1-25 (w/ new blurbs, updated rankings, and slightly updated projections)

Things change fast in the prospect world. Even during the off-season these lists can be fluid. Now that we’ve actually laid eyes on many of the 2019 versions of these prospects, and have the first indication of how their parent clubs view them fitting in on the future roster, I decided to update the first 100 of my 2019 Top 472 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking. Here is the March 2019 Top 100 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking: 1-25 (w/ new blurbs, updated rankings, and slightly updated projections):

CLICK HERE FOR 26-50
CLICK HERE FOR 51-75
CLICK HERE FOR 76-114 (PODCAST)

Click the below links for my previous off-season content:
2019 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
2019 Top 472 Dynasty Baseball Prospect Rankings
11 Dynasty Baseball Rules to Live By
2020 Top 90 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (1st Edition)
The Dynasty Baseball Rundown (2/24/2019)

1) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 3B, 20.0 – The Zion Williamson of baseball. Both are fat, dominant, and forced to play for peanuts. Let’s just hope Vlad doesn’t go the way of Zion and injure himself before making it to the big stage. ETA: Mid April 2019 Projection: 74/23/77/.294/.365/.502/5  Prime Projection: 103/40/118/.325/.420/.616/5

2) Eloy Jimenez CHW, OF, 22.4 – No news is good news. 2019 Projection: 61/25/69/.281/.338/.504/1 Prime Projection: 92/42/109/.306/.377/.563/1

3) Victor Robles WASH, OF, 21.10 – With Bryce Harper officially signing with Philly, any small chance he could have returned to Washington and stole Robles’ playing time is now gone. Robles is 3 for 11 with 1 homer, 2 steals and a 1.036 OPS thus far in spring. He’s ramping up to be a 5-category stud in short order. 2019 Projection: 84/16/71/.272/.327/.430/24 Prime Projection: 104/21/75/.296/.370/.477/32

4) Fernando Tatis Jr. SD, SS, 20.3 – Murdering spring pitching with 2 homers and a 1.295 OPS in 14 at-bats. Adding Machado to all of the young talent that is ready to break through on San Diego’s roster means there is at least a chance they are competitive enough to make it worth their while to call Tatis up earlier than originally planned. 2019 Projection: 33/10/39/.247/.318/.438/7 Prime Projection: 92/34/108/.273/.362/.526/16

5) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 21.4 – Will Houston let Tucker go through some growing pains if necessary considering all of their other options? I don’t know the answer, but my guess is that they are a smart enough organization to allow it … or they will trade him for starting pitching before he marinates too long in the minors. 2019 Projection: 42/12/47/.250/.320/.450/7 Prime Projection: 92/31/101/.278/.371/.518/10

6) Wander Franco TB, SS, 18.1 – Looking at my prime projection for Franco he could easily be ranked #1 on this list, but I’m just not in the business of trading my top prospects who are about to break into the bigs for the next big thing in rookie ball/A-Ball. It just seems like you will constantly be running in circles. ETA: 2021 Prime Projection: 110/30/110/.310/.395/.587/18

+1 (7) Nick Senzel CIN, 3B, 23.9 – Cincinnati seems serious about using Senzel in centerfield, and he now has a real chance of breaking camp with the big league club. I bumped him up over Lewis because of the new path to playing time. 2019 Projection: 66/14/64/.270/.330/.440/10 Prime Projection: 93/24/91/.288/.360/.484/13

8) Royce Lewis MIN, SS, 19.10 – Has been sidelined with a mild oblique strain. Injury expert, and Twins current manager Rocco Baldelli said, “That’s something we are going to work through and we’re not overly concerned as we sit here right now. It is something to take note of as we go forward.” You don’t want the guy who never got hurt managing the grind of a long season, you want the guy who was always hurt. Bold prediction: Minnesota is one of the least injured teams in baseball with Rocco in town. ETA: 2021 Prime Projection: 104/23/87/.293/.351/.475/25

9) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 21.1 – Baseball America says Bo Bichette has average speed. Keith Law says he has above average speed. Fangraphs puts a 45 grade on it. Prospects Live says he has plus speed. Maybe Bichette binged on the never ending pasta bowl at Olive Garden the day Baseball America and Fangraphs were in attendance. Or maybe he has inconsistent speed? Is that even possible? I really wish the Statcast data on minor leaguers became public. Can we get a petition going for that or something? ETA: Late 2019 Prime Projection: 92/25/89/.289/.358/.493/23

10) Jo Adell LAA, OF, 20.0 – If this were a pure fantasy upside list, Adell would rank 3rd behind Wander Franco (#1) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (#2). You can learn to strike out less with experience, but it’s much harder to get considerably faster as you get older. ETA: Late 2020 Prime Projection: 94/37/107/.265/.348/.540/14

11) Forrest Whitley HOU, RHP, 21.6 – I’m tempted to move Whitley higher but I just can’t part with my stud hitters for a pitching prospect, even one as good as Whitley. If you don’t have the aversion to pitching prospects that I have, he would easily be top 5 on this list. 2019 Projection: 7/3.75/1.23/102 in 85 IP Prime Projection: 18/3.25/1.07/240 in 210 IP

+5 (12) Alex Reyes STL, RHP, 24.7 – With Carlos Martinez likely moving back to the bullpen, it gives me more confidence Reyes will find himself in the starting rotation sooner rather than later. He’s scheduled to make his spring debut sometime this week, and I’m guessing he is about to remind all of us what all the hype was about. 2019 Projection: 7/3.71/1.28/136 in 110 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.32/1.23/221 in 185 IP

13) Brendan Rodgers COL, SS, 22.8 – With Arenado locked up long term, Garrett Hampson looking like he will have the first crack at the 2B job, and there still being some rawness to his plate approach, I can’t help but think it might not be the smoothest road ahead for Rodgers’ path to making a serious impact on your fantasy squad. ETA: Late 2019 Prime Projection: 83/28/95/.284/.339/.489/5

14) Keston Hiura MIL, 2B, 22.8 – Going 1 for 11 so far this spring doesn’t allow for the Twitter GIF hype machine to take effect in all its glory. The Mike Moustakas signing also puts a damper on his chance of forcing his way into the lineup. ETA: Late 2019 Prime Projection: 92/23/87/.287/.350/.476/13

15) Alex Kirilloff MIN, OF, 21.5 – I was curious what the origin of the name Kirilloff was. I didn’t find it, but I did end up in an internet black hole about surname numerology. Here is the Talent Analysis of Kirilloff by expression number 8: “You have the power and potential to achieve great things. It is both your challenge and your birthright to gain dominion over a small part of the earth. Whatever your enterprise, you strive to be the best and most successful in your field. You are highly competitive and will not rest until you are satisfied that you have bypassed the opposition. You enjoy challenges and rivalry.” Damn, pretty spot on. Maybe there is something to this surname numerology after all. Let me check the Talent Analysis of my surname, Halpern: “Yours is the most highly charged Expression number of all. You are like a lightning rod, attracting powerful ideas, intuitions, and even psychic information like unpredictable bolts. You are a powerful presence without any awareness on your part of having personal power. You are a channel for higher vibrations. But in order to be emotionally and psychologically at peace, you must learn to control that flow of energy. You possess a bridge between the unconscious and the conscious.” Fuuuuuck … my website name is pretty new agey and I am into going inward with meditation. Let’s move on before I start buying into this nonsense. ETA: Late 2020 Prime Projection: 93/28/96/.292/.348/.531/4

16) Tyler O’Neill STL, OF, 23.9 – O’Neill’s spring numbers are almost too on the nose, going 2 for 12 with 2 homers, a .167 BA and 1.000 OPS. I looked up the Talent Analysis of O’Neill, and it just says, “Tyler smash.” 2019 Projection: 31/10/33/.238/.300/.470/4 Prime Projection: 88/35/100/.255/.339/.510/10

17) Brent Honeywell TB, RHP, 24.0 – Honeywell’s Twitter account is now locked. I guess it has something to do with him getting suspended 4 games in 2017 for tweeting his frustration over not being called up. If you tweet a suspendable offense from a locked account do you still get suspended? I feel like this falls under the eternal philosophical question of, “if a tree falls in the woods and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?” 2019 Projection: 5/4.30/1.34/75 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.33/1.13/205 in 190 IP

+4 (18) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 24.4 – Only a dumb franchise wouldn’t hold their top prospects down for a few weeks to accrue an extra year of service time, so although Todd Frazier and Jed Lowrie are out with injuries, I’m definitely guessing Alonso breaks camp with the MLB club. 2019 Projection: 64/27/78/.243/.320/.464/1 Prime Projection: 83/34/101/.258/.339/.508/1

+5 (19) Garrett Hampson COL, 2B, 24.6 – Looking better and better to win near everyday at-bats in Colorado and possibly gain multi position eligibility along the way. Hampson has seen time all over the field, and is off to a blazing start this spring, going 5 for 11 with 2 homers and 3 steals. 2019 Projection: 73/8/58/.278/.335/.412/28 Prime Projection: 94/14/65/.291/.366/.449/35

20) Jesus Luzardo OAK, LHP, 21.6 – Luzardo was electric in his 2nd spring outing, striking out 3 of the 7 batters he faced. It had his pitching coach buzzing, “He’s got unbelievable stuff. In my opinion, this guy is going to be an elite pitcher in the big leagues. The fastball is electric, the changeup is really, really good, and he’s got an exploding breaking ball.” Usually teams try to keep expectations in check, but Oakland is so desperate for starting pitching they can’t help but be excited. Luzardo’s got a real shot of spending all season with the big league club. 2019 Projection: 8/3.94/1.28/116 in 130 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.38/1.15/198 in 195 IP

+20 (21) Chris Paddack SD, RHP, 23.3 – From the moment I first started writing about prospects I was always higher on plus change-up guys than the big boys in the industry, and was actually hyping up Paddack after his very first starts in 2016. That’s why I regret getting cold feet over the still developing curveball in my January prospect ranking, and while being ranked #41 is still very good for a pitcher in my rankings, the mid 90’s fastball and elite change-up deserved more respect. 2019 Projection: 4/3.81/1.24/73 in 68 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.41/1.12/203 in 188 IP

22) Michael Kopech CHW, RHP, 22.11 – Started throwing in February as he continues to recover from Tommy John surgery. We always focus on the physical aspect of the game, but like Yogi Berra said, “Baseball is 90 percent mental and the other half is physical.” Here is a great article on how Kopech handles the mental side of the game, which alludes to meditation being at least one tool in his arsenal. ETA: 2020 Prime Projection: 17/3.45/1.21/240 in 200 IP

23) Taylor Trammell CIN, OF, 21.6 – Trammell’s elite athletisism and plus power-speed combo get talked about a ton, but to stick with this mental aspect of the game theme, his elite character and leadership qualities don’t get mentioned often enough. He won his high school’s top leadership award and earned a 3.4 GPA. Reds manager, David Bell, recently said, “We’ve really enjoyed having him in camp. The interaction and conversations. He’s really a pleasure to be around. He’s a hard worker, really talented. He seems comfortable out there. He’s played well. More than anything, it’s fun getting to know him.” ETA: Late 2020 Prime Projection: 92/18/73/.266/.344/.452/24

24) Carter Kieboom WASH, SS, 21.7 – 4 for 10 with 2 doubles and a 1/3 K/BB. Doesn’t have huge power or speed upside, but is a safe bet to be a strong all category contributor. ETA: 2020 Prime Projection: 92/25/86/.280/.366/.485/9

25) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 21.9 – You don’t think billion dollar major league baseball organizations have any strategies when it comes to manipulating the media, do you? Nah, probably not. That’s why when they tell you there is nothing to see here with Houston’s blocked, star 1B prospect, you should probably believe them and drop Alvarez way, way down your rankings. It wouldn’t be because every team is going to ask for him in trade negotiations this upcoming season, is it? Nah, that couldn’t be it. Who needs big sluggers these days anyway? ETA: 2020 Prime Projection: 82/29/98/.268/.354/.505/2

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 MiLB Player Superlatives/Awards

What better way to honor the youngsters in the Minor Leagues than to hand out some good ole’ fashioned high school superlatives? Yeah, I can probably think of a few better ways too, but handing out these bullshit awards is just more fun. Here are the 2016 MiLB Player Superlatives/Awards:

Player Who Hasn’t Even Begun To Peak, And When He Does Peak, He Will Peak All Over Your Face: Tim Tebow NYM, OF – For being just as delusional about his abilities as Dennis Reynolds is from It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia.

Most Likely To Succeed: Yoan Moncada BOS, 2B/3B – Kinda cheating because signing a $31.5 million signing bonus is already considered succeeding, but he is now the #1 prospect in baseball too.

Most Likely To Have His Dad Threaten To “Turn This Car Right Around” If He Doesn’t Stop Whining In The Backseat: Jorge Mateo NYY, SS/2B – For being suspended 2 weeks after throwing a tantrum about not being called up to Double-A when he wanted to be called up.

First To Get Married: Chase Vallot KC, C – Do you want to be the one to tell @craycray_tay that it’s over right before breaking into the big leagues? … I didn’t think so.

Most Likely To End Up In Prison: Danry Vasquez HOU, OF – For getting arrested after allegedly assaulting his girlfriend in a stairwell at the stadium of the Corpus Christi Hooks. No joke here, just a logical guess.

Teacher’s Pet: J.P. Crawford PHI, SS – Isn’t he so perfect with his great plate approach, contact numbers, up-the-middle defense, and high ranks on prospect lists. But with only 7 homers and 12 steals, he is no fun for fantasy.

Most Likely To Have Keith Law Call Him A Reliever All Off-Season: Josh Hader MIL, LHP – We get it, he has a funky delivery.

Most Likely To Kneel During The National Anthem: Dan Vogelbach SEA, 1B – Not in protest, but because he just gets easily winded being 6’0’’, 250 pounds.

Most Likely To Actually Still Be In High School: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, OF – We were all “Party(ing) Like It’s 1999” with Prince to bring in the new millennium, while Guerrero was sucking on his momma’s teat, being about 9 months old at the time and all (born 3/16/99). He literally still has braces on in his player picture.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)