Will Warren – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on October 9, 2023October 14, 2023 by Michael Halpern

New York Yankees 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

The 2024 off-season festivities have officially kicked off on the Brick Wall with the first Dynasty Team Report of the year. Like during the regular season, I will release a freebie here on Imaginary Brick Wall on some Mondays with the vast majority of the content over on the Patreon. Off-season content will include these Dynasty Team Reports, along with Deep Positional Rankings, strategy articles, target articles, podcasts, predicting future prospect lists, the Top 100 FYPD rankings, Top 500 Prospects Rankings, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings. Here is the New York Yankees 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-SEPTEMBER TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-SEPTEMBER TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: SEPTEMBER MAILBAG! (9/22/23)
-Off-Season content includes team dynasty reports, deep positional rankings, strategy articles, podcasts and very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

Hitters

Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 22.11 – Volpe might be easier to acquire this off-season than he was last off-season, which is wild, but is also par for the course in dynasty leagues. If rookies don’t immediately Corbin Carroll the league, people get discouraged and throw the bust label around. In reality, Volpe’s value should be considerably higher after the year he just had. Not only did he go 20/20 (21/24), but all of the underlying numbers are screaming a future breakout is coming with a 9% barrel%, 88.7 MPH EV, 14.2 degree launch, and 28.4 ft/sec sprint speed. The 27.8%/8.7% K%/BB% wasn’t great, but it’s far from the danger zone, and it’s really not bad for a 21/22 year old who had 99 total PA at Triple-A coming into the year. If cold hard numbers aren’t your thing, Volpe even has Black Magic on his side. His OPS was the number of the beast, .666. I don’t know what is going to happen to Volpe’s soul, but the Devil keeps his promises. Max Kepler was the only player to have a .666 OPS in 2022, and this season he had the highest wRC+ of his career at 124 (.816 OPS). Literally all signs, both natural and supernatural, are pointing towards a big 2024 for Volpe. He’s an easy target. 2024 Projection: 81/25/79/.245/.316/.451/31

Oswald Peraza NYY, SS/2B, 23.10 – I guess the Devil only has room for one Yankees rookie on his ledger, because I see no promises made for Peraza in 2024. He swung and missed far too often for his type of profile with a 33.1% whiff% in 191 PA, which led to a .191 BA. He doesn’t hit the ball hard enough to make up for the swing and miss with a below average 87.2 MPH EV in the majors and 85.2 MPH EV at Triple-A. He also has never really been a big OBP guy with mostly mediocre walks rates throughout his career. The plus speed and defense are what carries his profile, and while both are good enough to make Peraza an attractive low cost option, his former prospect hype could push his value higher than I would be willing to go. 2024 Projection: 53/9/46/.238/.299/.388/17 Prime Projection: 77/17/68/.254/.319/.415/23

Pitchers

Michael King NYY, RHP, 28.10 – King pitched too damn well once being transitioned to a starter to leave a ton of value on the bone. He put up a 2.02 ERA with a 45/7 K/BB in his final 35.2 IP. There is nothing in the underlying data to say it was a fluke, and he’s been lights out for 2 years now in whatever role the Yanks put him in. The stuff is good, he misses bats, he induces weak contact, and he doesn’t have any major control issues. He was also a starter throughout his minor league career, so it’s not like starting is a new challenge for him. Everything is pointing towards him being for real, but there are a couple things to consider before you really sell the farm for him. His velocity was slowly declining to close out the season, and he also had a serious arm injury in 2022 (fractured elbow which required surgery). It adds at least some doubt if he can truly keep up this level of production under a full starter’s workload. I’m willing to go after him if the price doesn’t get too out of control, but I’m concerned with how he closed out the season, his price could get too out of control. 2024 Projection: 9/3.51/1.19/162 in 145 IP

Carlos Rodon NYY, LHP, 31.4 – An elbow and back injury delayed the start of Rodon’s season until July, and while there were glimpses of him regaining his old form, it was mostly a straight disaster with a 6.85 ERA and 22.4%/9.8% K%/BB% in 64.1 IP. His finish to the season was the most concerning as his velocity was way down, and he gave up 8 earned runs without recording a single out in his final outing. If you’re a glass half full person, you can look at this as a lost season due to the injuries and expect him to bounce back in a big way in 2024, but if you’re a glass half empty person, you are looking at him like a ticking time bomb, especially with his injury history. I’m the type of person who looks at that glass and sees the water in the middle (I live in the gray), which is how I would value Rodon for next year. 2024 Projection: 9/3.57/1.20/160 in 140 IP

Bullpen

Clay Holmes NYY, Closer, 30.4 – Holmes 27.1% K% isn’t high enough to put him in the truly elite closer tier when you have guys like Felix Bautista putting up a 46.4% K% (and plenty of others in the mid to high 30’s), but he’s in the tier right under that. He uses a 96 MPH sinker which he throws 69.2% of the time to keep the ball on the ground (negative 3.4 degree launch), and he uses a dominant slider (.176 xwOBA and 43.1% whiff%) and sweeper (.079 xwOBA and 44.2% whiff%) to miss bats. He’s locked in as the Yanks closer for 2024. 2024 Projection: 4/3.09/1.12/72/32 saves in 64 IP

New York Yankees Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 21.2 – The backlash to Dominguez’ early career hype made it hard to hold the line, but I remained all in on Dominguez last off-season, ranking him 10th overall, and he more than delivered on that ranking this year. He hit 15 homers with 37 steals and a 25.6%/15.2% K%/BB% in 109 games at Double-A as a 20 year old. Then he quickly ran through Triple-A with a 180 wRC+ in 9 games, before finishing out his season with 4 homers and a 162 wRC+ in 8 games in the majors. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery put a halt to what was sure to be insane hype this off-season, but I wouldn’t let the Tommy John surgery scare you off. It isn’t as big of a deal for hitters as it is for pitchers, and he’s expected to return by the 2nd half of 2024. His extremely good MLB debut will likely make it hard to get good value for him this off-season even with the surgery, so my move would be to hope he needs to shake off some rust when he returns next season to bring his value into a more reasonable range again. 2024 Projection: 30/8/226/.242/.324/.438/10 Prime Projection: 92/26/86/.266/.361/.485/28

2) Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 22.11 – Strikeouts are the only thing we have to worry about with the uber talented 6’6”, 235 pound beast, which is why his 28.2% K% in 78 PA at Double-A is actually encouraging. That number could have easily skyrocketed against more advanced pitching after putting up a 29% K% in 100 games at High-A. Jones can live in the upper 20’s and still thrive due do his double plus power/speed combo. He hit 16 homers and stole 38 bags in 117 games. His groundball rates are on the high side, but with how hard he hits the ball, it might actually be a good thing to ensure his batting average doesn’t tank too low. It’s more or less the Elly De La Cruz package, and just like I’m buying Elly, I’m buying Jones too. 2024 Projection: 27/7/23/.217/.283/.411/8 Prime Projection: 76/23/82/.241/.318/.465/26

3) Roderick Arias NYY, SS, 19.7 – Arias has elite prospect written all over him, and with a good showing in full season ball in 2024, it won’t be long before he skyrockets into the Top 10 overall. He hits the ball hard (6 homers in 27 games in stateside rookie ball), he has speed (17 steals), he has an excellent plate approach (22.3%/20.8% K%/BB%), he’s a good defender, and he has pedigree ($4 million international signing). He most certainly looks the part too with a vicious lefty swing (he went 2 for 11 on the entire season hitting righty). He won’t come super cheap this off-season, but he’s easily worth targeting at his current price. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 86/22/80/.264/.348/.471/24

4) Austin Wells NYY, C, 24.9 – Wells’ MLB debut gave me a ton of confidence that the profile will transfer. He had a 14% barrel%, 89.5 MPH EV, 13.6 degree launch, 18.7% K%, and .367 xwOBA in 75 PA. Boone also praised his defense. He didn’t exactly blow the doors off the upper minors, but he still hit 17 homers in 96 games. The Yankee Stadium short porch is perfect for him, and the bar to clear to be an impact fantasy catcher isn’t very high right now. I don’t think he is going to be a fantasy beast, but I do foresee a top 10 fantasy catcher for years to come. 2024 Projection: 56/18/63/.235/.307/.410/3 Prime Projection: 71/23/77/.252/.331/.442/5

5) Everson Pereira NYY, OF, 23.0 – Pereira’s 43.1% whiff%, 38.8% K%, and 23 wRC+ in his 103 PA MLB debut is exactly what we didn’t want to see happen. That is the kind of disaster MLB debut that has to make you think twice about betting on a player, but I would be careful about giving up on Pereira too fast. He truly crushes the ball, he has well above average speed, and he decimated the upper minors with a 145 wRC+ at Double-A and 132 wRC+ at Triple-A. You only have to look at his teammate, Aaron Judge, to find hope, as Judge put up a 44.2% K% in his 95 PA MLB debut in 2016. When a guy hits the ball this hard, you don’t need to be Luis Arraez to do damage. The extreme swing and miss does have me less excited for him than I was before his debut, but I’m still betting on his talent long term. 2024 Projection: 44/17/51/.222/.291/.434/9 Prime Projection: 74/26/82/.244/.320/.482/12

6) Drew Thorpe NYY, RHP, 23.6 – Who needs a huge fastball anyway? Thorpe’s double plus changeup and above average slider was more than enough to obliterate minor leaguers. He put up a 2.81 ERA with a 32.4%/7.7% K%/BB% in 109 IP at High-A, and then he went to Double-A and was even better with a 1.48 ERA and 40%/4.5% K%/BB% in 30.1 IP. He’s a big boy at 6’4”, 225 pounds and his command is very good too. Plus changeup guys can sometimes get exposed against MLB hitters, and the aforementioned fastball only sits low to mid 90’s, which is why I’m hesitant to truly put top of the rotation upside on him, but this is a high floor starter with legit upside who should be up in the bigs very quickly into 2024. 2024 Projection: 5/4.13/1.28/92 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.64/1.18/190 in 175 IP

7) John Cruz NYY, OF, 18.7 – If Cruz were eligible for the 2023 MLB Draft, his hype would be through the roof. He has the scout’s dream build at a projectable 6’3”, 171 pounds, and it comes with a quick and powerful lefty swing. It resulted in him ripping up stateside rookie ball as a 17 year old, slashing .294/.376/.531 with 10 homers, 9 steals, and a 21.8%/10.9% K%/BB% in 48 games. Power, speed, build, production, age to level … this is everything you look for in a shooting star prospect. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 78/27/87/.251/.324/.473/12

8) George Lombard NYY, SS, 18.10 – Selected 26th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Lombard has baseball bloodlines with his father playing 6 years in the big leagues, and like most plus bloodlines kids, his game is mature beyond his years. He stepped right into pro ball and put up a 202 wRC+ with a 2/5 K/BB in 4 games at rookie ball, and then he closed the year out at Single-A with a 114 wRC+ and 10/8 K/BB in 9 games. He combines the high baseball IQ with plus athleticism at 6’3”, 190 pounds, and has the potential for an at least above average power/speed combo at peak. This is a really nice blend of safety and upside. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 83/22/77/.268/.341/.450/16

9) Chase Hampton NYY, RHP, 22.8 – Hampton wasn’t quite able to keep up the breakout at Double-A with his ERA jumping from 2.68 at High-A to 4.37 at Double-A, and his K% dropping from 40.5% to 27.4%, but that shouldn’t put a damper on his excellent season, because he has the big stuff to get excited about. He’s 6’2, 200 pounds with mid 90’s heat and a diverse set of secondaries (slider, curve, cutter, change). The command is solid. With the production taking a step back against more advanced competition, I wouldn’t put top of the rotation upside on him, but I certainly think he can be an impact mid-rotation fantasy starter at peak. 2024 Projection: 4/4.28/1.33/86 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.78/1.23/177 in 170 IP

10) Keiner Delgado NYY, 2B/3B, 20.3 – Delgado backed up his 2022 breakout in the DSL with all of his skills transferring stateside in 2023, slashing .293/.414/.485 with 8 homers, 36 steals, and a 13%/15.1% K%/BB% in 49 games. Proving it stateside is one box checked off, but he was still one year older than optimal for the level, and he is still a small guy at only 5’7”. It wouldn’t be all that surprising if he ended up a utility infielder, but he’s a legitimately electric player who I think can overcome his small stature. If he can keep up the production at a more age appropriate level, he will be an easy Top 100 prospect. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 83/16/62/.273/.343/.428/26

Just Missed

11) Enmanuel Tejeda NYY, SS/2B/3B, 19.3

12) Brando Mayea NYY, OF, 18.7

13) Will Warren NYY, RHP, 24.10

14) Trey Sweeney NYY, SS, 23.11

15) Henry Lalane NYY, LHP, 19.10

16) Richard Fitts NYY, RHP, 24.5

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

It can be a pain in the ass to own prospects from big market teams because of how easily those teams can go out and sign proven talent, which in turn blocks our favorite prospects, but the Yankees are too far deep into the youth movement to all of a sudden majorly change course this off-season. They also don’t have a ton of money coming off the books, making it even less likely that their top prospects get blocked. The combination of talent, proximity, opportunity and ballpark (Yankee Stadium has the perfect combo for fantasy of juicing up homers while being a fairly neutral park overall) provides so many juicy targets to go after this off-season for dynasty.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on November 14, 2022November 22, 2022 by Michael Halpern

New York Yankees 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the New York Yankees 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 104 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: TOP 65 CATCHERS
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago White Sox—Colorado Rockies—Kansas City Royals—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—Texas Rangers—Washington Nationals

Starting Pitchers

Nestor Cortes NYY, LHP, 28.4 – Cortes might have been my biggest miss on somebody I wasn’t in on and quite clearly should have been. Andrew McCutchen said it best on Twitter, “Nestor Cortes’ fastball plays up. Meaning his 91-94 actually feels like 97. Mix that with him messing with a hitters timing, throwing from diff arm angles, and locating well, he can be very difficult to hit.” I struggled to buy into the low 90’s velocity with a below average whiff%, but he not only proved the profile will play, he also made incremental improvements. The fastball ticked up 1.1 MPH to 91.8 MPH, his 6.2% BB% is a career best and his 24.4% whiff% is now nearly average. It led to a stunning pitching line of 2.44/0.92/163/38 in 158.1 IP. The dead ball also helped, as many big strikeout pitchers started to pitch more like Cortes by pitching to contact and bringing both their K and BB rates down. I’m not making the same mistake I did last year, I’m in on Cortes. 2023 Projection: 13/3.39/1.06/175 in 170 IP

Luis Severino NYY, RHP, 29.1 – Cortes was a miss, but Severino was a definite hit. I love taking the Tommy John discount on established pitchers, and Severino was back to pitching to near elite levels with a pitching line of 3.18/1.00/112/30 in 102 IP. He missed over 2 months with a lat strain, but he looked no worse for the wear when he returned in September. He pumped the fastball in at 96.3 MPH and it put up a career best .299 xwOBA. All 3 of his secondaries were on point with his slider putting up a 41.6% whiff%, his changeup putting up a .259 xwOBA, and he went to his cutter more than ever with a 7.3% usage and 40.6% whiff%. Even with the excellent season, it still seems like he isn’t getting the respect he deserves and remains a target for me. 2023 Projection: 11/3.45/1.10/170 in 155 IP

Frankie Montas NYY, RHP, 30.0 – Montes went from a no pressure situation in the the spacious confines of Oakland, to a high stress situation with the short porch in New York, and it was unsurprisingly not a smooth transition. He had a 3.18 ERA in 104.2 IP with Oakland and a 6.35 ERA in 39.2 IP with New York. Doing it while he just had a shoulder issue he was returning from probably didn’t help things either, and the shoulder issue popped up again at the end of the season. All of this to say I think Montas will be a lot better in year 2 with a full off-season to heal and get comfortable with his new pitching environment. He throws a 5 pitch mix led by a 96.1 MPH fastball and a splitter which is excellent even in a down year with a .223 xwOBA. He has plus control (7.1% BB%) and plus whiff rates (27.6% whiff%). His disaster stint with New York could have him going for a sweetheart price this off-season, and if you’re like me in not wanting to pay up huge for the top aces, Montas will be right in my wheelhouse. 2023 Projection: 11/3.60/1.21/181 in 170 IP

Hitters

Aaron Judge FA, OF, 30.11 – Judge hit only 62 homers this year, not even coming close to the home run record of 73. His cute little 207 wRC+ was bested by Barry Bonds 5 times. He also stole only 16 bases, falling short of the vaunted 20/20 season. It was just a disappointment all around, and as a Yankees fan, it’s unacceptable. Let him walk 😉 2023 Projection: 111/43/109/.286/.398/.562/11

Oswaldo Cabrera NYY, 2B/SS/OF, 24.1 – Cabrera had a very strong MLB Debut with a 111 wRC+, 6 homers, and 3 steals in 44 games, but I’m still staying hesitant. He outperformed his underlying numbers with a .322 wOBA vs. .287 xwOBA, he doesn’t hit the ball hard enough with a 86.8 MPH EV, he’s not that fast with a 54.9% percentile sprint speed rank, and he has below average swing and miss rates (25.7% K% and 26.9% whiff%). He also went 2 for 28 in the playoffs. Josh Rojas isn’t the worst comp, but Cabrera hits the ball in the air a lot more which gives him higher power upside and lower BA downside. He seems to be setting up for a super utility role, especially for a team like the Yankees who can open the pocketbook to fill holes. 2023 Projection: 51/14/47/.242/.309/.418/10

Bullpen

Clay Holmes NYY, Closer, 30.0 – Aroldis Chapman’s total meltdown opened the door up for Holmes, and his 97.1 MPH bowling bowl sinker did the rest. He threw it 80.1% of the time and it was the tied for the 8th most valuable sinker in the game with a negative 10 run value. His slider is a killer pitch too with a 42.9% whiff% and .174 xwOBA. It led to a pitching line of 2.54/1.02/65/20 in 63.2 IP. Aroldis Chapman is a free agent now and it seems Holmes is the heavy favorite to open the season as the closer, but I don’t think he is locked in the role if the Yanks acquire a more established closer. Kenley Jansen is a name that sticks out from the free agent pool. I wouldn’t worry too much that he will lose the role, but I would keep it in the back your mind when building your team. 2023 Projection: 4/3.28/1.08/69/30 saves in 65 IP

Top 10 New York Yankees Fantasy Baseball Prospects.

1) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 21.11 – Volpe got off to a rough start at Double-A with a .647 OPS and 24% K% in his first 37 games, but he came alive after that, slashing .286/.374/.536 with 13 homers, 26 steals, and a 14.4%/10.7% K%/BB% in 72 games. He does it all with a mature plate approach, plus game power, and plus stolen base ability. Despite the 17.7% K% at Double-A on the season, he still hit only .251 because of an extreme 56.9% flyball percentage. If the balls stay dead, it could be an issue because he isn’t a huge raw power guy at 5’11”, 180 pounds. He also struggled when he got the call to Triple-A with his K% spiking to 30.3%, and putting up a 91 wRC+ in 22 games. The profile isn’t flawless, but he has a super fantasy friendly skillset, and he was a 21 year old in the upper minors, so further refinement is surely coming. He’s an elite prospect. 2023 Projection: 38/10/35/.236/.316/.421/12 Prime Projection: 89/26/88/.267/.341/.473/21

2) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.2 – It felt like everyone was just waiting for Dominguez to fail, the ole build em up so we can tear em down, but Dominguez refused to blink. He’s now officially living up to the hype with a big 2022, slashing .273/.376/.461 with 16 homers, 37 steals, and a 24.2%/13.6% K%/BB% in 120 games mostly at Single-A and High-A. He actually performed better at High-A with a 146 wRC+ and 18.5% K%, and he even made it Double-A for 5 games and wasn’t overmatched with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 5/3 K/BB (despite a .467 OPS). His tools are still big and back up the numbers with plus speed and plus power. If he keeps this up at Double-A as a 20 year old, he’ll be in the mix for #1 fantasy prospect in the game very quickly into 2023. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 88/28/93/.261/.345/.491/18

3) Oswald Peraza NYY, SS/2B, 22.10 – Like Volpe, Peraza started the year cold with a .583 OPS and 25.6% in his first 46 games at Triple-A before turning it around. He slashed .316/.382/.560 with 14 homers, 22 steals, and a 21.4% K% in his final 53 games at the level. He got called up to the majors in September and thrived, slashing .306/.404/.429 with 1 homer, 2 steals, and a 15.8%/10.5% K%/BB% in 57 PA. Statcast backs up the numbers with a well above average .343 xwOBA and 28.9 ft/sec sprint speed. The one red flag is his 81.6/84.0 MPH AVG/FB EV. That is quite low on 40 batted balls. It’s a small sample and he obviously has more power than that, but the power numbers he put up in the minors in 2021-22 could be misleading for what he will do in the majors. 2023 Projection: 58/14/59/.246/.303/.400/16 Prime Projection: 81/21/77/.269/.327/.441/22

4) Austin Wells NYY, C, 23.8 – The Yankees took their sweet old time getting Wells to Double-A, but he didn’t disappoint when he got there, maintaining his mature plate approach with a 23.5%/11.7% K%/BB%, hitting for power with 12 homers, and showing some base stealing skills too with 7 steals in 7 attempts over 55 games. He’s kept the ball off the ground his entire career, so he’s bound to do damage with the Yanks short porch. He’s also yet to play any position other than catcher, which could indicate the Yanks are dedicated to him behind the plate. He ranked 18th overall in my Top 65 Catchers: 2023 Deep Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings on Patreon. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 77/24/79/.258/.336/.457/8

5) Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 21.11 – Selected 25th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, the 6’7”, 225 pound Jones is the lefty version of Aaron Judge, even down to the fact they each hit “only” 12 homers in their draft year. It’s the hacky comp, but it’s also one that cuts through all the BS. He had some K issues in college with 64 K’s in 61 SEC games, and a high GB% kept the homers in check. His pro debut tamped down some of those concerns though as he played like a man amongst boys, slashing .344/.425/.538 with 4 homers, 12 steals, and a 18.9%/10.4% K%/BB% in 25 games at mostly Single-A. His power is huge enough to overcome a high GB% and he’s a good athlete with stolen base skills. He’ll get plenty of love in first year player drafts, but I suspect it won’t be enough. He’s currently 6th overall in my First Year Player Draft Rankings and is pushing Top 50 overall prospect status. Go after him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/27/86/.248/.333/.480/9

6) Everson Pereira NYY, OF, 22.0 – Pereira was not able to maintain his insane power surge in 2021 (20 homers in 49 games), hitting 14 homers with a 49.5% GB% in 102 games split between High-A and Double-A. The strikeout rate remained high as well with a 26.8% K% at High-A and 30.1% K% at Double-A. A high strikeout rate with a high groundball rate is not the best combo, but he has the type of raw power and speed (21 steals) to make it work a la Randy Arozarena. He still put up a 120 wRC+ and 128 wRC+ at High-A and Double-A, respectively. It’s a high risk, high reward profile who has still has a wide range of outcomes despite being 21 years old with a taste of the upper minors. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 79/23/77/.251/.332/.447/15

7) Matt Sauer NYY, RHP, 24.2 – Sauer’s 4.54 ERA in 109 IP at High-A (88.1 IP) and Double-A (20.2 IP) is not indicative of how good he looked. He has no joke stuff with a plus mid 90’s fastball that moves, a plus slider, and a lesser used quality changeup. Here is he striking out 17 batters in his 3rd game at Double-A to give you an idea of the upside we are talking about. He had a 26.5%/9.3% K%/BB% at High-A and 37%/7.6% K%/BB% at Double-A. His control/command is below average and he has an injury history (he left his final start of the year with an undisclosed injury), so the bullpen risk is high, but he’s a no doubt target of mine in the later rounds of off-season prospect drafts, especially because New York traded so much of their pitching depth at the deadline. He could also be nasty out of the pen. 2023 Projection: 2/4.21/1.34/32 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.81/1.28/169 in 155 IP

8) Estiven Florial NYY, OF, 25.4 – Florial burst on the scene in 2017 as the ultimate high risk, high reward prospect, and 6 years later he remains that way, although neither the risk nor the reward are quite as high. He had a strong season at Triple-A with a 124 wRC+ in 101 games, but the 30.4% K% is still in the danger zone and his power has yet to fully breakout with 15 homers. He got some run in the majors and the K% spiked to 37.1% with a negative 7 wRC+ in 35 PA. He’s a plus defensive centerfielder, so it seems he will be used as a bench outfielder earlier in his career, with the hope he continues to grow into his considerable raw offensive talent as a later career breakout. 2023 Projection: 19/5/22/.222/.294/.389/7 Prime Projection: 73/18/61/.238/.311/.413/16

9) Trey Sweeney NYY, SS, 22.11 – Sweeney didn’t have a huge year, which would have been nice to see considering his competition in college wasn’t that strong in the Ohio Valley Conference, but it was still solid, slashing .240/.349/.413 with 16 homers, 31 steals, and a 23.2%/13.0 K%/BB% in 111 games split between High-A (100 games) and Double-A (11 games). He’s 6’4”, 200 pounds with a pretty viscous lefty swing, so there is more power in here to unlock, and he doesn’t have any major strikeout or groundball issues. He’s not that fast, so the stolen bases are likely a mirage, but it’s a good sign that he can contribute there. I’m very happy with my evaluation of him last off-season, as I liked him, but didn’t go crazy over him at 16th overall in my 2022 FYPD ranks. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/22/81/.253/.327/.448/7

10) Keiner Delgado NYY, 2B/3B, 19.3 – Delgado was an 18 year old in the DSL, and he’s only 5’8”, 145 pounds, but everything else looks so good I just couldn’t leave him off this list. He slashed .310/.504/.506 with 3 homers, 34 steals, and an 11.8%/24.4% K%/BB% in 52 games. He’s an excellent athlete who hits the ball hard and has a 47.7% FB%, so he’ll get the most out of his raw power. Jose Altuve is the dream outcome, but there are lesser outcomes that would still make him an impact fantasy player. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 81/15/66/.268/.339/.420/19

11) Brandon Mayea NYY, OF, 17.5 – Mayea is my #2 overall international prospect behind Felnin Celesten. He might not be physically imposing at 5’11”, 170 pounds, but he’s far from weak with the ball exploding off his bat in every video I’ve seen. He has a good feel to hit with an easy and athletic righty swing to go along with plus speed. He’s expected to sign for over $4 million. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 82/22/76/.275/.345/.458/15

Just Missed

12) Roderick Arias NYY, SS, 18.7

13) Will Warren NYY, RHP, 23.9

14) Andres Chaparro NYY, 3B, 23.11

15) Luis Serna NYY, RHP, 18.9

16) Randy Vasquez NYY, RHP, 24.5

17) Drew Thorpe NYY, LHP, 22.6

18) Enmanuel Tejada NYY, SS, 18.3

19) Richard Fitts NYY, RHP, 23.4

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

It can be so tempting to pay up for a career year, but it almost always ends up being an overpay. Just look at Salvador Perez this year vs. what he did in 2021. It’s not like they don’t have the ability to repeat, because they obviously just did it, it’s just that literally everything has to go right from luck to health and everything in between. A career year in a contract year is the scariest, because who knows what extra work the guy was willing to put in behind the scenes that he may be a bit more lax on after he scores a $500 million contract. I’m obviously talking about Aaron Judge here, but it applies to every veteran who just had the best year of their career. You are way better off looking for the guy who has the ability to put up that career season, but didn’t for whatever reason, rather than going after the guy who just did it.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on August 29, 2022August 29, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (8/29/22)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (8/29/22):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT, INCLUDING:
-TOP 350 AUGUST 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 455 AUGUST 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 10 TRADE NEGOTIATION TACTICS (one of my favorite things I’ve ever written)
-MID-SEASON OBP TOP 447 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-MID-SEASON POINTS/6+CATS/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 430 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 40 2023 FYPD RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

Kyle Manzardo TBR, 1B, 22.0 – Italian Lunch made quick work of the Blue Wahoos, ripping a line drive homer that made a beeline for the Truly Hard Seltzer sign hanging beyond the right field wall. I’m old enough to remember when a man choosing to drink a hard seltzer would be met with endless ridicule, but these days we can drink anything we want without being made fun of! Progress! Since being called up to Double-A he’s dominating with a 1.052 OPS and a 15.9% K%. Not missing a beat in the upper minors takes away any obstacle to flying him up the rankings. He checked in at #188 on the Updated Top 455 Dynasty Rankings that hit my Patreon last week.

Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 18.6 – Speaking of flying up the rankings, Jackson “flying up the rankings” Chourio cracked his 5th homer in 21 games at High-A (17 homers in 83 games overall) on a 1 for 2 with 0 K day. He now has a 130 wRC+ with a 20.8% K% at the level. I know some people are hesitant to go all in on an 18 year old in the lower minors, but this stage of a superstar’s career is when the biggest mistakes are made in dynasty. Don’t let a savvy manager steal him away from you for a good but not truly great win now piece this off-season.

Oswald Peraza NYY, SS, SS, 22.3 – “You never get a second chance to make a first impression.” That quote couldn’t be truer when it comes to prospects. A bad start to the season will have guys tumble down the rankings, and even they play with their hair on fire for the rest of the year, it’s like barely anyone notices. Peraza legitimately decimated a 426 foot homer that left his bat in the blink of an eye. He also tacked on a stolen base and went 4 for 7 in a doubleheader. He’s slashing .293/.361/.507 with 13 homers, 21 steals, and a 61/20 K/BB in his last 58 games at Triple-A.

Nick Lodolo CIN, LHP, 24.5 – 7 IP, 5 hits, 3 ER, 5/1 K/BB vs. Miami. The underlying numbers looked better though with his curve and change putting up a silly 77% whiff% and 50% whiff%, respectively. The Solo Lodolo man is going to have to do it by himself because Cincy has the 3rd worst defense in baseball and the home ballpark is terrible too. It definitely puts a little damper on how good I think he could be in a more neutral pitching environment, but I love him enough to overlook the negatives. He clocked in at #116 overall on the Updated Top 455 Dynasty Rankings. I’m all in on him despite the red flags that are being waved directly in front of my eyes.

Roansy Contreras PIT, RHP, 22.9 – 5 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 7/2 K/BB vs. PHI. The underlying numbers were a mixed bag with his velocity down majorly across the board, but it was working for him because he put up a 40% whiff% with a 86.4 EV against. The fastball being down almost 2 MPH to a pedestrian 94.3 MPH isn’t great to see though. I’m honestly not sure what to think here, but I’m leaning more towards the positive side.

Taj Bradley TBR, RHP, 21.7 – Bradley desperately needed a good start at Triple-A after a stretch of rough ones, and he got it yesterday, going 6 IP with 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 5/1 K/BB. His 20.6%/7.4% K%/BB% in 30 IP at the level isn’t great. He might be setting up to be more Drew Rasmussen than Shane McClanahan. I don’t even mean that as too much of a diss as I love Rasmussen.

Max Muncy LAD, 1B/2B, 31.11 – This is just a heads up that Muncy is completely healthy after an elbow injury tanked the first half on his season. He went 3 for 5 yesterday and has a 176 wRC+ with a 92.8 MPH EV in 95 August PA. He’ll probably come at a discounted price this off-season unless he really goes out of his mind the rest of the way, which is possible.

Alex Bregman HOU, 3B, 28.4 – Continuing the “just a heads up that this guy is healthy now” segment of our programming, Bregman lifted off for his 7th homer in his last 17 games. He’s fully healthy after off-season wrist surgery sapped his power earlier in the year.

Mike Trout LAA, OF, 31.0 – Trout ripped his 4th homer in 9 games since returning from that “pretty rare” back injury. Apparently the back injury wasn’t rare enough to stop Trout.

Jake McCarthy ARI, OF, 25.1 – 1 for 4 with a 104.6 MPH double off Kendal Graveman. He stole 2 bags on Saturday. He’s now slashing .291/.352/.432 with 4 homers, 12 steals, and a 20.4%/7.7% K%/BB% in 68 games. I loved taking a flier on McCarthy this off-season. I ranked him 238th on my off-season Top 500 Prospects Rankings and wrote, “McCarthy is going to have to scratch and claw for playing time, but he has a very fantasy friendly profile if he can win some. He put up an elite 30.1 ft/sec sprint speed in his MLB debut and was 29 for 33 on the bases in 85 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He hits the ball on the ground too much and showed some swing and miss this year, but if you are looking for a close to the majors option with legitimate upside, McCarthy is your guy.”

Lars Nootbaar STL, OF, 24.11 – 1 for 3 with a walk and a 355 foot dinger off Jake Odorizzi for his 9th homer in 75 games. Nootbaar has been smashing the ball with a 91.7 MPH EV and his 20.4%/14.9% K%/BB% is impressive. He’s a line drive hitter and he doesn’t run a ton, so the fantasy upside isn’t huge, but St. Louis develops underrated hitters like him like it’s their job … come to think of it, it is their job.

Matt Mervis CHC, 1B, 24.4 – McCarthy and Nootbaar both ended up being excellent older fringe types to take a shot on last off-season, and Mervis is shaping up to be that guy this off-season. He went 2 for 5 with his 6th homer in 31 games at Triple-A, and it comes with a 13.7%/9.2% K%/BB%. The first base job could be his for the taking next year.

Stone Garrett ARI, OF, 26.9 – Stone Garrett crushed a 105.8 MPH dinger off Dylan Cease for his first MLB homer. He’s been absolutely crushing the ball in his 5 game debut with a 98.8 MPH EV. This is the first time he’s playing in a week, and considering Stone Garrett sounds like the protagonist in a spy novel, I have questions as to what he’s been up to over that missing week. Playing time might be an issue while he takes down international criminals on the side, but the power is for real when he does play. And before you say being a major league baseball player and a spy is unrealistic, you should look into Moe Berg.

Henry Davis PIT, C, 22.9/Endy Rodriguez PIT, C, 22.3 – Davis has been on a rehab assignment at Single-A returning from his 2nd wrist injury and he walloped his first homer in 4 games. Endy Rodriguez has been so dominant in his absence at Double-A (3 for 4 with a double yesterday) that a catcher competition is definitely brewing. The good news is that there is plenty of at bats to go around for everyone in Pitt. Both guys can keep catcher eligibility, stay healthy, and thrive.

Logan O’Hoppe LAA, C, 22.5 – I called O’Hoppe the most underrated catcher in baseball this off-season, and he’s not underrated anymore as he absolutely unloaded on his 22nd homer of the year at Double-A. He has a 184 wRC+ in 16 games since joining LA, and the future catcher job is his for the taking.

Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 22.4 – Casas busted out the whooping stick against a side winding righty, crushing a homer out to left center on a 2 for 4 day. He has a 1.040 OPS in his last 27 games at Triple-A. I think it’s time for Casas to get his feet wet against MLB pitching.

Joey Wiemer MIL, OF, 23.5 – Just when you’re ready to give up, Wiemer pulls you back in, going 2 for 4 with his 5th homer in 22 games at Triple-A. The K% is at a not terrible 23.3% and he’s also stolen 4 bags. I’ve held strong on Wiemer towards the back of the Top 100 because despite the struggles the raw talent is just too good to completely give up on. He’s also knocking on the door of the bigs.

Angel Martinez CLE, SS, 20.7 – Martinez got called up to Double-A and he’s thriving. He went 2 for 3 with a triple and homer yesterday, and he’s now slashing .292/.357/.750 with 2 homers, 1 steal, and a 13.8%/10.3% K%/BB% in 7 games. The power ticked up this year, and he combines that with plus speed and a plus plate approach. He’s setting up to be a solid across the board contributor, and considering he’s only 20, maybe he has another gear in there too.

Mick Abel PHI, RHP, 21.0 – 2.2 IP, 5 hits, 3 ER, 2/3 K/BB at Double-A. I don’t have Abel quite on the same level as Painter (who had another good start at Double-A on Saturday), but I still like Abel a lot despite the clunker yesterday. He might be settling in more in the mid-rotation range though as he didn’t really dominate High-A either with a 4.01 ERA and 27.7%/10.2% K%/BB%.

Chase Silseth LAA, RHP, 22.3 – 6 IP, 2 hits, 2 ER, 11/1 K/BB at Double-A. Silseth has been jerked around a bit as an up and down arm, which I doubt was the best thing for his development, but I do get that sometimes the team comes first. Regardless, he’s ripped up Double-A with a 2.63 ERA and a 33.5%/8.7% K%/BB% in 65 IP. He throws a 5 pitch mix headlined by a 95.4 MPH fastball. Despite getting hit up in the majors, he’s still an exciting pitching prospect.

Will Warren NYY, RHP, 23.2/Taylor Dollard SEA, RHP, 23.6 – Warren went 6 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER, and a 5/2 K/BB at Double-A. Dollard went 6 IP with 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 5/0 K/BB at Double-A. Neither guy has the K rates to get me really excited for fantasy (19.8% and 23%, respectively), but both can definitely be solid real life pitchers. The deeper the league, the more I would like them.

Garrett Mitchell MIL, OF, 24.0 – Mitchell made his MLB debut on Sunday and went 1 for 4 with a K and 2 RBI. The K rate and GB% is what to watch for, and right now the launch angle is sitting at 26.2 degrees and the whiff% is 28.6%. It’s only one game, but it’s better than if he had a 50% whiff% with a negative 2 degree launch angle. One game down, an entire career to go.

Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 21.11 – The #1 fantasy prospect in baseball will make his MLB debut today after working over upper minors pitching all season. He’s only 5’10” and has played in favorable hitter’s environments. He’s also shown some swing and miss throughout his career. The speed is unquestioned, so the power and strikeouts will be what to watch for in this final month.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)