Wilyer Abreu – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on April 22, 2024April 22, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/22/24)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/22/24):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-APRIL TOP 427 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (4/19/24)
-APRIL TOP 300+ PROSPECTS RANKS COMING NEXT WEEK
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: APRIL MAILBAG COMING WEDNESDAY!
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-TOP 42 PROSPECTS TO STACH FOR 2024 ONLY (4/3/24)
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-SPREADSHEETS

Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 23.7 – “The captain goes down with the ship.” That’s just Maritime Law. Now, I’m no sailor, but as the world’s foremost expert on Fantasy Law, there are some players that you are required to go down with the ship for, and Corbin Carroll is most certainly one of those players. I’ve seen a ton of panic and sell low offers for Carroll, but all of the warning signs could be flashing red, the sirens could be blaring, and you are still legally obligated to not sell low on an established elite dynasty asset like Carroll on April 22nd. And quite frankly, all of the warning signs are far from flashing red. The plate approach has been elite and better than ever with a 13.6%/13.6% K%/BB%, the whiff% is down to 17.3%, and the base running is elite with 8 steals. He’s definitely been unlucky too with a .288 wOBA vs. .328 xwOBA. The one big flashing warning sign is the 84.0 MPH EV, but the 91.0 MPH FB/LD EV and 110.1 Max EV both look much better, so I 100% think that is going to come way up over time. And it’s already starting to come up with a 88.9 MPH EV over his last 8 games. Obviously the shoulder is the big concern, but we haven’t heard anything about the shoulder bothering him, so using that as the reason to sell him seems too speculative. But all of that is besides the point anyway. The point is that Carroll is an established 23 year old beast with a .285/25/54 season already under his belt. This is a player you stay so patient with that the ship could actually be sinking, and you still hold on, but I don’t actually think the ship is sinking here. Hold on for dear life.

Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 25.6 – While we’re on the topic of elite or near elite dynasty assets that I’m not selling low on, let’s talk about Oneil Cruz (along with Jazz and Jordan below). Carroll you would have to still pay up for to acquire, but Cruz, Jazz and Jordan’s prices might be entering a mighty juicy area if their owner is getting frustrated, and I would be all over it. Cruz is struggling with a .587 OPS, but he is still absolutely crushing the ball with a 92.5 MPH EV, and he’s still running with 2 steals despite barely being on base. The 40.2% K% is scary, but his 31.6% whiff% is much lower than that and not far off from what he did last year. That K% is definitely going to come down, and when it does, only good things are going to happen with how hard he crushes the ball. Let’s also give him some leeway to shake the rust off after that very serious injury. He’s on about a 22/15 pace and that’s with him playing very poorly. I’m buying the slow start.

Jazz Chisholm MIA, OF, 26.2 – Jazz is off to a lukewarm start with a .699 OPS, and the perception on him feels lukewarm in general, which makes now a great time to go after him, especially considering there are things to be very excited about in the underlying numbers. For one, the swing and miss is way down with a career best 25.6% whiff% (35.7% in 2023), and the plate approach has been improved as well with a career best 11.4% BB% and 25.1% Chase%. These improvements haven’t hindered his power at all with a beastly 91.1 MPH EV and 15.1% Barrel%. He’s running a ton as well with 4 steals. This is true elite dynasty potential … as long as he stays healthy. It’s 100% fair to ding him for being injury prone, and we saw with Robert and Royce, it can definitely come back to bite you, but I like to take risks in fantasy, and Jazz is a risk worth taking.

Jordan Walker STL, OF, 21.10 – Walker is a 21 year old who improved his Barrel% 5 percentage points to 12.5%, his EV 2.9 MPH to 92.3 MPH, his launch 2.2 degrees to 12.4, his whiff% 2.4% percentage points to 27.6% and his BB% 1.5 percentage points to 9.5%. He’s blowing up … or I should say he should be blowing up, but the OPS sits at a horrific .511 OPS. Remember it’s still only 63 PA though. Wonky stuff happens in 63 PA, and this is definitely wonky. He’s been unlucky with a .304 xwOBA, but beyond being unlucky, the underlying numbers point to a big explosion coming in the near future. Walker is still on that elite dynasty asset journey, and if you can buy in now off the struggles to take that journey with him, I would go for it.

Ralphy Velazquez CLE, 1B, 18.10 – Now that we got The Bad News Bears out of the way, let’s talk about some guys off to legitimately exciting starts, and there are few breakout prospects I’m more excited about than Ralphy. He was a major FYPD target of mine, calling him “the Xavier Isaac of this draft class,” and he’s lived up to my billing of him after another big night at the dish, going 3 for 5 with a double that rocketed off his bat. He’s destroying Single-A as an 18 year old, slashing .375/.448/.688 with 4 homers and a 22.4%/12.1% K%/BB% in 12 games. Cleveland already moved him off catcher to 1B so the beastly bat could shine. He jumped to 339th overall on the updated Top 427 April Dynasty Rankings that hit the Patreon last week, which makes him an easy Top 100 prospect when I update the Top 300 Prospects Rankings next week.

Caden Dana LAA, RHP, 20.4 – Speaking of players moving into my Top 100 Prospects, Dana took a huge jump on those Updated Dynasty Rankings as well, and he backed up that jump with his best outing yet, going 7 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 8/1 K/BB as a 20 year old at Double-A. The camera angle was behind the plate for this one, and I loved the dramatic slow zoom-in from the camera person after every strikeout. A true artist. Dana now has a 1.47 ERA with a 28.4%/4.5% K%/BB% in 18.1 IP, and he has the stuff and build to back it up at 6’4”, 215 pounds with a plus fastball/slider combo. He also throws a curve and change. We might be talking about him as an elite pitching prospect in the not too distant future.

Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 22.11 – Jones demolished his first homer out to deep centerfield and tacked on 2 steals on a 3 for 4 day. He has a 191 wRC+ with a 20/8%/12.5% K%/BB% in 6 games. The improved strikeout rate is huge to see, and he’s lifting the ball more too with a 31.3% GB%. He’s carrying over the impressive spring into Double-A and is now an undisputed elite dynasty prospect. The Unicorn Revolution is in full swing with Wood and Jones ready to join Elly and Cruz.

Alfredo Duno CIN, C, 18.4 – Cincy skipped Duno over stateside rookie ball and threw him into the fire at Single-A as an 18 year old, and he’s responding after hitting his first homer at the level in 10 games. You can see the powerful and athletic swing right there from a 6’2”, 210 pound frame. He’s now slashing .282/.370/.487 with a 26.1%/10.9% K%/BB% and 141 wRC+. He’s been an elite dynasty prospect catcher waiting to happen since he was a high priced international signing, and while he’s not quite there yet, he’s certainly knocking on the door of the Top 100.

Jordan Westburg BAL, 2B/3B, 25.1 – Westburg was one of my top off-season targets, ranking him very high at #149 on the Top 1,000 and writing, “While Gunnar and Adley hog all the attention on the MLB level, and Holliday, Mayo, Basallo etc … hog all the attention on prospect lists, you should sneakily tip toe in there and steal Westburg from his current owner like a thief in the night” … and if you took my advice and did that, you better lock your doors and windows at night, because his former owner might be out for blood after seeing his start to the season. He had another huge day yesterday, going 2 for 3 with a 110.5 MPH homer and 107.6 MPH triple. He’s now slashing an insane .333/.392/.639 with 5 homers, 3 steals, and a 20%/6.3% K%/BB% in 20 games. The underlying numbers back it up with a 14% Barrel%, 93.8 MPH EV and .424 xwOBA. He already rose to #101 on the April Top 427 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon), and even that might not be high enough. We could be talking about a Top 50 dynasty asset by May.

Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 24.0 – Cowser isn’t far behind Westburg, ranking 108th overall on those updated rankings, and he’s staying in lockstep with him, cracking a 111.5 MPH homer last night. He’s now slashing .373/.411/.784 with 5 homers, 3 steals, and a 30.4%/7.1% K%/BB% in 20 games. The underlying numbers back it up as well with a 17.1% Barrel%, 91.7 MPH EV, and .416 xwOBA. I give Westburg the edge because of the superior contact rates, but both of these guys are exploding into the type of core dynasty assets you build your team around.

Jose Soriano LAA, RHP, 25.6 – 6 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 7/3 K/BB vs. CIN. The sinker sat 97.2 MPH, and the curve and splitter racked up whiffs with a 41% and 50% whiff% respectively. He now has a 3.43 ERA with a 25% K% in 21 IP. Soriano has the great combo of keeping the ball on the ground with a negative 0.6 degree launch on the back of the sinker, huge velocity, and missing bats on the back of the sweeper, slider, and splitter. The control is the only thing that isn’t there with a 12.5% BB%, but with his kind of stuff, he can survive with below average control. And if the control takes a step forward, he could explode. I’m buying Soriano.

Luis Gil NYY, RHP, 25.10 – Speaking of poor control with huge stuff, Gil dominated yesterday, going 5.2 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 9/3 K/BB vs. TBR. The fastball sat 95.9 MPH and notched a 38% whiff%, while the slider notched a 40% whiff%. He has a 2.75 ERA with a 34.5% K% in 19.2 IP, but the 20.2% BB% is full blown panic territory. His control was horrific in the minors as well, so while it’s obviously not going to remain this high, it’s well in the danger territory. It makes me hesitant to fully pay up for him in a trade, but the upside is clearly worth hanging onto.

Mitchell Parker WAS, LHP, 24.7 – 7 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 8/0 K/BB vs. HOU. Parker is definitely moving into interesting territory after his 2nd strong outing, and in this one he was able to miss bats with a 29% whiff%. He now has a 1.50 ERA with a 27.9%/0.0% K%/BB% in 12 IP. He’s missed bats his entire minor league career with a deceptive lefty delivery, so seeing it transfer to the majors is huge, and most importantly for him, the control has been much improved this year. He only throws 91.9 MPH, and the control was below average prior to this year, so definitely tread carefully, but he’s certainly worth a pick up for a pitching starved team.

Andy Pages LAD, OF, 23.4 – Pages had his coming out party in the majors, going 2 for 4 with a 413 foot bomb for his first MLB homer. He passed Miguel Vargas on the depth chart and earned this callup with across the board destruction of Triple-A with a 181 wRC+ in 15 games, and LA seems intent on giving him a full time shot. The 83.3 MPH EV and 34.3% whiff% in 5 games shows there will be an adjustment period, but he also has a 22.2% Barrel%, and is sneaky fast with a 28.3 ft/sec sprint. He’s been raking since spring and proving the shoulder is 100% healthy. He’s one of the biggest early season risers.

Orelvis Martinez TOR, 2B/3B/SS, 22.4 – Orelvis is doing his darndest to kick the door down after hitting his 6th homer in his last 7 games. This thing exploded off his bat at 108.6 MPH. Along with the dingers, the hit tool has been as good as ever with a .333 BA and 21.5% K%. He’s only played 2B this year, which shows you what his path to playing time is. The problem is, Biggio, Clement, IKF and Schneider have all played well themselves on the MLB level, so it doesn’t make sense for Toronto to make a switch right now. Orelvis will have to be patient for injuries and/or struggles to hit first, but he’s doing all he can do to force the issue.

Austin Martin MIN, 2B/OF, 25.0 – The written off Austin Martin might finally be coming into his man muscles after jacking out his first MLB homer yesterday. That lightning quick righty swing reminds you why he got taken 5th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft. And his 88 MPH EV is very encouraging, although it comes with zero barrels and a 87.4 MPH FB/LD EV in 44 PA, so I don’t want to get ahead of myself here. But he’s always had the contact/speed profile, which is transferring with a 13.6% K% and top 23% sprint speed, so even a small uptick in power would go a long way. With Kepler returning soon, there isn’t a full time job for him, but Martin is putting some respect back on his name after falling out of favor over the past few years.

Wilyer Abreu BOS, OF, 24.10 – The Red Sox wanted to make it a point to get Abreu’s bat back in the lineup. and he showed why yesterday, going 3 for 5 with a 104.3 MPH double. Just like 2023, Abreu is proving he’s legit with a 9.1% Barrel%, 90.5 MPH EV, 16.5 degree launch, and 28.8%/15.3% K%/BB% in 59 PA. He’s also running a ton with 4 steals. He’s starting to establish himself as not only a rock solid real life hitter, but also as an impact fantasy player. He’s worthy of a pick up in all league sizes, and if you’ve read my work since last year, you likely already have him, at least in medium to deeper leagues.

Bryan Woo SEA, RHP, 24.2 – Woo made his first rehab appearance at Triple-A coming off elbow inflammation, and he looked mostly healthy, going 3 perfect innings with 5 K’s. The fastball was down a tick to 93.9 MPH, but considering it was his first outing, I wouldn’t be worried about that, and all of his pitches racked up whiffs. He’s ready to continue his ascent to young ace status.

Blade Tidwell NYM, RHP, 22.10 – Many of the best pitching stashes have either already been called up or are likely already on people’s rosters, but Tidwell might be still out there, and he’s a worthy stash. He had another good outing yesterday, going 4 IP with 2 hit, 1 ER, and a 3/1 K/BB at Double-A. He now has a 1.84 ERA with a 32.1%/10.7% K%/BB% in 14.2 IP. The control is below average, but as long as he keeps it in a manageable range, the electric fastball/slider combo will do the rest. The path to a rotation spot is actually pretty crowded, so this might be more of a 2nd half call, and it’s also possible the Mets use him out of the bullpen, at least early in his career. But he’s worthy of keeping an eye on in all league sizes.

Dylan Beavers BAL, OF, 22.8 – Poor Mr. Beavers is going full breakout at Double-A after drilling his 2nd homer in 13 games, slashing .347/.421/.551 with 2 homers, 3 steals, a 34.2% GB%, and 19%/12.1% K%?BB%, but where in the world is this guy going to play. Kyle Stowers is about to be eligible for AARP, and he’s rotting away in the minors. The 25 year old Kjerstad seems like next man up, but he has 10 homers in 21 games and still hasn’t gotten the call. Coby Mayo has a 160 wRC+ with no path in sight. Let’s not even mention Connor Norby. Mr. Beavers is so far down the line, it’s like showing up to Starbucks during the lunch rush, seeing how insanely long the wait is going to be, and just turning around and leaving.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-APRIL TOP 427 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (4/19/24)
-APRIL TOP 300+ 2024 PROSPECTS RANKS COMING NEXT WEEK
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: APRIL MAILBAG COMING WEDNESDAY!
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-TOP 42 PROSPECTS TO STACH FOR 2024 ONLY (4/3/24)
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-SPREADSHEETS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on December 4, 2023December 6, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Boston Red Sox 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I like to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team, and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Boston Red Sox 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: TOP 76 C//TOP 98 1B
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100+ COMING SOON)
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Baltimore Orioles (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

Pitchers

Kutter Crawford BOS, RHP, 28.0 – I told you guys to put a star next to Justin Steele’s name as you were filling out the middle to back half of your fantasy rotation last off-season, and I’m going to tell you to do the same with Kutter Crawford this off-season. He shares some similarities which made me like Steele last off-season, but they aren’t really direct comps. Crawford’s control jumped to above average levels with a 6.8% BB%, and it allowed his 93.6 MPH fastball (.268 xwOBA with a 26% whiff%) and 88.6 MPH cutter (.295 xwOBA with a 24.2% whiff%) to play as plus pitches. He throws a legit 6 pitch mix with his sweeper, splitter, and slider thriving in limited usage. It all led to a 4.04 ERA (3.25 xERA) with a 25.6% K% in 129.1 IP. The floor is pretty high, and he has some very real upside. I really, really like Kutter as a very reasonably priced target. 2024 Projection: 11/3.73/1.22/159 in 155 IP

Brayan Bello BOS, RHP, 24.10 – The good news is that Bello improved one of his biggest weaknesses, bringing his BB% down 3.4 percentage points to a well above average 6.7%, but the bad news is that basically everything else took a half step back. The velocity dropped 1.3 MPH to 95 MPH, the barrel% rose 1.6 percentage points to 7%, and the whiff% dropped 1.6 percentage points to 24.4%. It resulted in a good, but unexciting fantasy season with a 4.24 ERA and 19.8% K% in 157 IP. The floor is high with his ability to keep the ball on the ground (56.2% GB%), the stuff is still big, and the changeup is still plus with a .219 xwOBA and 38.7% whiff%, but the upside is lacking with the mediocre K rates. He was major buy for me last off-season, and everything I liked him about then, I still like about him now (plus the improved control), so he’s an easy hold for me this off-season. 2024 Projection: 11/3.94/1.28/150 in 165 IP

Chris Sale BOS, LHP, 35.0 – Sale was a bit rusty coming off a completely lost and chaotic 2022 season with a 8.22 ERA in his first 23 IP, but he performed like a true ace after that with a 3.16 ERA and 30.2%/6.0% K%/BB% in 79.2 IP. He can clearly still be an impact fantasy starter, but there are enough indications that what he did in those final 79.2 IP shouldn’t be expected over a full season. He missed over 2 months during that stretch with shoulder inflammation, and while he performed well afterwards, the velocity was spotty and shoulder injuries are scary. He hasn’t thrown a legitimate starter’s workload since 2019 (147.1 IP). And the stuff isn’t quite as good as his prime with his heavily used 4-seamer hitting a career worst .320 xwOBA and 23.4% whiff%. All of those negatives seem to already be factored into his price though with a NFBC ADP of 179, and his advanced age is sure to keep his price down in dynasty too, so he still makes for a very reasonable buy target for a win now team. 2024 Projection: 10/3.57/1.14/170 in 140 IP

Hitters

Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 24.3 – Casas has the potential to become one of the next great all around 1B mashers, and we saw what that could look like in the 2nd half of 2023. He slashed .317/.417/.617 with 15 homers and a 23.4%/14.2% K%/BB% in his final 54 games. He smashes the ball with a 91.1/95.2 MPH AVG/FB EV, he lifts the ball with a 15.7 degree launch, he hit lefties well with a .817 OPS, he has no contact issues, and he’s an OBP beast. His .371 xwOBA was in the top 8% of the league, and that includes his slow start. He also hits in a great ballpark. The 1B position is starting to age a bit with Votto, Goldy, and Freeman all getting up there, and I think Casas has the upside to be in the next generation of greats to take their place. I don’t think he will get quite the respect he deserves this off-season. 2024 Projection: 93/32/94/.273/.375/.520/1

Jarren Duran BOS, OF, 27.7 – Ceddanne Rafaela is pretty clearly Boston’s starting CF of the future, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a path to playing time for Duran both in the short term and long term. Rafaela hasn’t established himself yet, Alex Verdugo is in his final year of team control with trade rumors already swirling around him, Masataka Yoshida looks like he’ll be doing a lot of DH’ing, and the unproven Wilyer Abreu (who I like) is penciled into one of the OF spots. That leaves plenty of avenues for playing time for Duran even if Boston brings in a free agent or two, and he has the type of fantasy profile to go after. His hit tool took a big step forward in 2023 with a 24.9% K% (28.3% in 2022), and it was even better in the 2nd half with a 17.6% K% in his final 142 PA. The contact improvements allowed his double plus speed (29.5 ft/sec sprint with 24 steals in 102 games) and at least above average raw power (89.9 MPH EV with 8 homers and a .295 BA) to shine. He was definitely on the lucky side with a .266 xBA, but luck is the residue of design, and when you hit the ball hard with his kind of speed, good things happen. His season ended in late August with a toe injury that required surgery, but he should be good to go for 2024, and I would use any job/injury uncertainty to your advantage this off-season. 2024 Projection: 78/16/69/.264/.329/.428/29

Bullpen

Kenley Jansen BOS, Closer, 36.6 – Jensen is certainly passed his prime with career worsts in K% (27.7%), EV against (89.9 MPH), xFIP (4.61), and xERA (3.16), but he’s far from washed up. His velocity jumped two ticks to near career highs with a 94.3 MPH cutter, and the slider is still plus with a 37.5% whiff%. The days of him putting up a 1.32 ERA with a 42.2%/2.7% K%/BB% are over, but a low 3’s ERA with a 30%/9%% K%/BB% is still well within reach. 2024 Projection: 4/3.39/1.15/79/34 saves in 62 IP

Boston Red Sox Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Roman Anthony BOS, OF, 19.11 – I ended Anthony’s 2023 Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “There is a lot of refinement needed, but this is a high upside bat who could explode up rankings if everything comes together.” … well, everything came together and Anthony exploded up rankings, slashing .272/.403/.466 with 14 homers, 16 steals, and a 24.2%/17.5% K%/BB% in 106 games at mostly Single-A (109 wRC+) and High-A (164 wRC+). It was a little concerning that the K% jumped to 30.6% at High-A, but then he closed out the season at Double-A and had a 185 wRC+ with a 13.6%/18.2% K%/BB% in 10 games. And he did all this starting the season as an 18 year old. He’s an elite athlete at 6’2”, 200 pounds with a plus power/speed combo, powerful lefty swing, and a mature plate approach. He’s not a completely finished product yet as he’s not great at lifting the ball with an under 25% Flyball%, and he wasn’t a great base stealer with 16 steals in 23 attempts, but he hits the ball so hard he can survive without a huge launch, and he has time to refine his base stealing skills as well, so neither are major concerns. He’s on a short list to be the #1 overall prospect in baseball by this time next year. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 96/25/88/.273/.358/.472/16

2) Marcelo Mayer BOS, SS, 21.4 – Mayer feels like he’s getting a bit of the treatment Noelvi Marte got last year. He was on a beeline for elite prospect status until there was an abrupt, general cooling on him throughout the industry, but like with Marte, I’m not sure it’s warranted. That sweet and vicious lefty swing obliterated the age appropriate High-A, slashing .290/.366/.524 with 7 homers, 5 steals, and a 22.%/10.4% K%/BB% in 35 games. He scuffled when he got to Double-A with a 63 wRC+, but there are multiple reasons to not get scared off by that. He was very young for the level, he was battling though a shoulder injury that eventually ended his season, and a .220 BABIP was really the biggest issue as 6 homers with a 25.8% K% in 43 games isn’t bad at all. He’s not that fast, but he’s a good enough base stealer to nab a handful of bags, and the strikeout rates have been higher than optimal, but the has the type of swing that can hit for both average and power even with a slightly higher strikeout rate. There are also only improvements coming from here. He’s right on track to become one of the better complete hitters in the game, especially hitting in Fenway. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 91/27/93/.272/.351/.484/9

3) Ceddanne Rafaela BOS, OF, 23.6 – Rafaela’s MLB debut was rough with a 74 wRC+, .238 xwOBA and 85.5 MPH EV in 89 PA, which fanned the flames of concern that he is too small (5’8″) to excel at the highest levels, but I’m using it as a buying opportunity. His floor is very high with at least plus CF defense and plus speed (39 steals and a 28.7 ft/sec sprint). He’s always had a good feel to hit (21.9% K% at Triple-A), he hit the ball hard in the upper minors with a 89.1 MPH EV, and he’s never had any groundball issues. He has a poor plate approach with a low BB% (5.5%) and high chase rates, but I don’t think that will hold him back while he’s in his physical prime. Cedric Mullins with a tick worse plate approach is the comp. 2024 Projection: 47/10/38/.245/.302/.401/15 Prime Projection: 87/18/68/.261/.318/.422/31

4) Kyle Teel BOS, C, 22.1 – Selected 14th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Teel is a better real life prospect than fantasy prospect like most prospect catchers. He has a hit over power profile, slashing .407/.475/.655 with 13 homers, 5 steals, and a 36/32 K/BB in 65 ACC games. He backed up that profile in pro ball, slashing .363/.483/.495 with 2 homers, 3 steals, and a 19.3%/18.4% K%/BB% in 26 games split between 3 levels (rookie, High-A, Double-A). He’s a good athlete, so he could nab a few bases which is nice for a catcher, and he immediately becomes Boston’s best catcher prospect, so he could move relatively fast through the system. Fenway is a great hitter’s park too which should help his profile play up. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/16/71/.281/.352/.433/8

5) Blaze Jordan BOS, 3B/1B, 21.3 – Blaze is one of those prospects where every time I fly him up rankings in early rankings drafts, I get cold feet after looking them over a few times because he isn’t a good defensive player, he hits lefties much better than righties, and he’s yet to truly show that prodigious power he was known for as an amateur. But then I move him too far down the rankings, and get FOMO when I think about a 20 year old with big raw power, great contact rates, and great production. He slashed .324/.385/.533 with 12 homers and a 14.6%/8.7% K%/BB% in 73 games at High-A. It was good for a 145 wRC+. He then went to Double-A and hit 6 homers with a 13.8% K% in 49 games. He can look a bit stiff at the plate, but he’s talked about losing weight and working on his body this off-season, which will only help him both offensively and defensively at a very strong 6’2”, 220 pounds. As a pure bat, there is a lot to love, and if he can improve defensively this off-season, it would make prospect rankers feel a lot more comfortable about him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 75/25/84/.269/.332/.465/3

6) Wilyer Abreu BOS, OF, 24.10 – I had a lot of in-season Target article hits this year, ringing the five alarm bell on a bunch of guys right at the first sign of a sprouting breakout and before they were even close to getting the respect they deserved (Nolan Jones and Zack Gelof, among others, were my best calls), but my favorite call was probably the one I made on Wilyer Abreu. Here is what I wrote about Abreu on August 3rd, “ This one is probably more for my deep leaguers out there, but there is something I really love about Abreu that I just can’t shake. And that something is probably his sweet, sweet lefty swing. It’s resulted in 14 homers with a 89.6 MPH EV in 71 games at Triple-A. It also comes with a solid 22.3%/16% K%/BB% and a cannon for an arm in rightfield. I don’t think he is going to be a league winner, but I think he has a chance to be a rock solid MLB player.” … From that point forward, Abreu went absolutely bonkos, hitting 8 homers in just 15 games at Triple-A, and then earning a call up to the majors where he put up a ridiculous 135 wRC+ in 85 PA. It’s almost like I had a crystal ball on that one. He continued to hit the ball hard in the majors with a 91.3 MPH EV, he likes to run with 3 steals (8 steals at AAA), and the plate approach was solid with a 27.1%/10.6% K%/BB%. I still think he’s more of an impact player for medium to deeper leagues rather than shallow leagues, but he more than proved he can be a good big leaguer in the long run. 2024 Projection: 47/14/54/.242/.319/.423/6 Prime Projection: 76/24/82/.257/.338/.453/9

7) Miguel Bleis BOS, OF, 20.1 – Bleis was the anti-Junior Caminero in 2023. Everyone wants to know which prospects can blow up from outside Top 50’s into elite prospect range, and Bleis and Caminero were both popular picks to do that this year. Caminero obviously fulfilled that elite prospect destiny, while Bleis completely imploded in on himself. He struggled hard at Single-A with 1 homer, 11 steals, a 26.8%/7.0% K%/BB%, and 71 wRC+ in 31 games, and then his season ended on May 30th with a shoulder injury that required surgery. The superstar traits are still there with a lightning quick swing, projectable power, and plus speed, but he didn’t seem all that close to putting it together in 2023, and the shoulder injury adds further risk. He’s not an overtly imposing presence at a skinny 6 feet, so he needs to tack on more muscle to reach his power potential, and the plate approach is below average. He can still obviously reach his elite prospect potential, but every year he doesn’t do it, the odds of it happening get a little lower. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 75/22/77/.255/.322/.438/24

8) Yordanny Monegro BOS, RHP, 21.5 – Monegro is a projectable 6’4”, 180 pounds with nasty stuff and a starter’s pitch mix. He throws a mid 90’s fastball with good movement, to go along with 2 plus breaking balls that he has full confidence in and will throw in any count, both in and out of the zone. He also mixes in a decent a changeup. He was too much for the lower minors with a 2.06 ERA and 34.6%/9.7% K%/BB% in 65.2 IP at rookie ball, Single-A, and High-A. He doesn’t have pinpoint control, but he’s not majorly wild either. Boston has a bunch of arms with similar value to Monegro, but I like his combination of upside and likelihood of sticking as a starter the most. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/3.93/1.31/160 in 155 IP

9) Nick Yorke BOS, 2B, 22.0 – A 24.1% K% and .268 BA at Double-A isn’t exactly super encouraging for a player who you are mostly buying for the hit tool. There also isn’t a clear path to playing time with Story under contract through 2027, Marcelo Mayer very likely ahead of him on the depth chart, and many others with similar skillsets to Yorke in the organization as well. And to top it all off, he isn’t a particularly good defensive player. But Yorke showed a good enough all around collection of skills/tools to stick with him. He hit 13 homers with 18 steals, a 10.1% BB% and 116 wRC+ in 110 games as a barely 21 year old in the upper minors. The Sox took him 17th overall in 2020, and when a team invests so much into a player, they usually want to give him every opportunity to succeed. His perceived name value is probably greater than his actual value, but he can still be a solid all around contributor at peak. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/18/71/.267/.332/.426/14

10) Wikelman Gonzalez BOS, RHP, 22.0 – There is no doubt that Gonzalez has fire stuff with a nightmare mid to upper 90’s fastball that gets a ton of whiffs to go along with a plus breaking ball and a solid changeup. It led to a 3.96 ERA with a 35.2% K% in 111.1 IP at High-A and Double-A. The problem is that his control is in the major danger zone with a 14.7% BB%. He can survive with below average control, but he needs to improve to even reach below average, so his most likely role will be out of the bullpen. It’s closer type stuff though. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 4/3.45/1.22/81/25 saves in 65 IP

Just Missed

11) Chase Meidroth BOS, 3B/2B, 22.8

12) Brainer Bonaci BOS, SS/2B, 21.9

13) Yoelin Cespedes BOS, SS, 18.7

14) Nazzan Zanetello BOS, SS, 18.10

15) Luis Perales BOS, RHP, 21.0

16) Angel Bastardo BOS, RHP, 21.9

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Jumping off from the Miguel Bleis blurb, every dynasty owner wants that shooting star prospect who “came out of nowhere,” but I would be careful about building your system with 100% of these players. Bleis is the dark side of that strategy, and before you know it, you could have an entire farm system full of nearly worthless prospects who showed glimpses in the DSL or rookie ball a few years ago, while your competition rosters and graduates the Matt McLain’s and Spencer Steer’s of the world. Of course you want a nice percentage of pure young upside, but make you sure you are dipping into other buckets of prospects as well to diversify your risk. And you don’t have to always forgo upside to do it with the Blake Dunn’s of the world available for reasonable prices (I’m not intentionally only naming Cincinnati players, hah).

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on August 14, 2023August 15, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (8/14/23)

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Zack Gelof OAK, 2B/3B, 23.10 – Here’s what I wrote about Gelof about two weeks ago in my Top 17 Dynasty Baseball Targets article, “If you want safety, sign up for a defensive driving course. This here is the autobahn of dynasty baseball schools, and I don’t want speed limits. I want to take the restrictor plate off and let it fly. That brings us to the 6’3”, 205 pound Zack Gelof, whose upside was considerably underrated in the minors. The guy came up to the majors and has been a power/speed glutton with a 91.8 MPH EV, 20.3 degree launch, and 29.5 ft/sec sprint speed. It’s led to 4 homers and 5 steals in just 16 games. He flashed those same skills in the minors with 12 homers and 20 steals in 69 games at Triple-A. Sure it might feel like your car is coming apart at the seams with the steering wheel shaking and hearing a weird squeaking sound that you can’t quite place because your whiff% meter is well into the danger zone at 42.1%, but fuck it, you’re sick of playing it safe and falling just short of a championship. In fantasy baseball, if you crash and burn, you don’t actually die, you just feel shitty for a few weeks/months. If you can’t take risks in fantasy, where can you take risks? And for Gelof’s current very reasonable price, he’s worth the risk for that big time upside he’s showing off.” … he went 4 for 5 with 2 bombs last night and since that write-up is slashing .382/.432/.853 with 4 homers, 1 steal, and a 7/3 K/BB in 9 games. Buy windows can close fast during the season, and this buy window might have just slammed shut on your fingers if you didn’t act fast.

Wilyer Abreu BOS, OF, 24.1 – Abreu was also named in that target article, and he also went nuclear yesterday with a 3 dinger day. He has a sweet, sweet lefty swing that I just can’t quit, and it’s resulted in 20 bombs with a 21.4%/15.4% K%/BB% and 121 wRC+ in 80 games at Triple-A. He barely gets a whisper of hype and all he does is rake.

Noah Schultz CHW, LHP, 20.0 – I promise you I don’t want to turn this entire Rundown into one big pat myself on the back fest, but I can’t help that so many of my Targets went off yesterday. Schultz was my top pitcher target for first year player drafts, and now his hype is absolutely blowing up. He kept his immaculate season going yesterday (3.1 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 5/2 K/BB) and now has a 1.33 ERA with a 36.5%/5.8% K%/BB% in 27 IP at Single-A.

Bryan Ramos CHW, 3B, 21.3 – Okay, this is a cry for help now … just … can’t … stop … being … right 😉 … Ramos is the Rodney Dangerfield of prospects, the guy just don’t get no respect. He dug out a pitch that was down and in and somehow managed to go the other way with it with authority for his 11th homer in 49 games at Double-A. I’ve been banging his drum for two years and he’s now destroying Double-A, slashing .274/.392/.508 with 11 homers, 4 steals, and a 22.7%/12.4% K%/BB%. There actually might still be a buy window here, because I’ll tell ya, he got no respect the day he was born. He ranked 77th on my Mid-Season Top 357 Dynasty Prospects Rankings.

Coby Mayo BAL, 3B, 21.8 – I’m doing everything in my power to not mention that I predicted Coby Mayo would be a Top 10 Prospect in my Predicting the Top 50 2024 Dynasty Baseball Prospects back in February. I’m not sure he’s quite at Top 10 level yet, but he’s certainly blown up this year, and he’s starting to conquer Triple-A now too with a 457 foot bomb for his 3rd homer in 26 games. He only has a 69 wRC+ at the level (177 wRC+ at Double-A), but his strikeout rate has come down to a reasonable 25.2% and a lot of it is poor BABIP luck (.242 BABIP).

Moises Ballesteros CHC, C, 19.8 – Okay Mike, it’s not even funny anymore, don’t mention that you named Ballesteros your top catcher target this off-season in your Positional Targets Series … don’t do it … Ballesteros was my top catcher target this off-season in my Positional Targets Series, and he’s gone off this year. He got the call to High-A after conquering Single-A, and he’s now officially destroying the level after cracking his 3rd homer. He has a 131 wRC+ in 37 games after putting up a 143 wRC+ in 56 games at Single-A.

Anthony Solometo PIT, LHP, 20.7 – Let’s use Solometo as a palate cleanser. Finally one of my targets who didn’t play well yesterday. He went 1 IP with 4 hits, 3 ER and a 1/1 K/BB at Double-A. He hasn’t been bad at Double-A, but he hasn’t been dominant either with a 4.15 ERA and 25.2%/5.4% K%/BB% in 34.2 IP. Keep in mind he’s still only 20 years old, and it’s also nice to see the walk rate come all the way down to a near elite 5.4% BB%.

Homer Bush Jr. SDP, OF, 21.10 – Don’t worry, Homer Bush Jr. has never been a target of mine … yet. He didn’t crack my Top 50 2024 FYPD Rankings, but he’s proving he should have with an excellent pro debut. After across the board destruction in rookie ball, he got called up to Single-A and is still raking, slashing .294/.478/.529 with 1 homer, 2 steals, and a 8.7%/13% K%/BB% in 5 games. His 12 pro steals leads all 2023 draftees. As the 128th pick in the draft, he’s quickly becoming one of my favorite sleeper bats.

Enrique Bradfield Jr. BAL, OF, 21.8 – Speaking of guys racking up steals, Bradfield racked up 4 steals yesterday and is a perfect 9 for 9 in only 7 pro games (3 games in rookie and 4 in Single-A). As the 17th pick in the draft, you won’t get the discount you can get on Bush, but his category winning stolen base prowess is worth the price.

Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 21.4 – You heard it here first, Crews is my #1 sleeper target in first year player drafts 😉 … He’s unsurprisingly obliterating the lower minors after going 5 for 5 with 2 homers yesterday at High-A. He has a 193 wRC+ in 8 games at the level. It continues to lock in his status as a truly elite prospect, and he already ranked 51st overall on the Updated Top 477 Dynasty Baseball Rankings that dropped last week on my Patreon.

Ryan Pepiot LAD, RHP, 25.11 – 6.2 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 11/0 K/BB at Triple-A. The fastball sat 94.3 MPH and the changeup dominated with a 50% whiff%. Here’s a highlight reel of his dominance. I feel like we’ve seen enough plus changeup Dodgers pitchers struggle in the majors (Gavin Stone, Emmet Sheehan) to scare us off, but at the same time, those struggles might open the door for Pepiot to get the next shot when/if a rotation spot opens.

Matt Shaw CHC, SS, 21.8/Tommy Troy ARI, 3B/2B, 21.6 – There seems to be a split between people who prefer Shaw and people who prefer Troy, and while I’m most certainly on Team Shaw, I like Troy too. They both homered yesterday, and now Shaw is utterly decimating High-A with 2 homers, 1 steal, a 15.4% K% and 205 wRC+ in 9 games. Troy isn’t playing as well with a 80 wRC+ in 10 games, but a lot of that is bad BABIP luck (.185 BABIP) because the 3 homers, 4 steals, and a 26.1% K% ain’t bad at all. Shaw checked in at 43rd overall on my Mid-Season Top 357 Prospects Rankings while Troy checked in at #126.

Termarr Johnson PIT, 2B/SS, 19.1 – It didn’t take long for Johnson to find his footing at High-A. After struggling in his first few games at the level, he’s homered in back to back games. His hit tool might not have been quite as good as advertised, but this is still an explosive player with a very mature plate approach. I would say he’s living up to about 95% of his draft hype.

Chase Silseth LAA, RHP, 23.1 – 5 IP, 4 hits, 0 ER, 5/2 K/BB vs. HOU. He probably got a bit lucky in this one with only a 16% whiff% and with his secondaries getting hit relatively hard, but you know what they say, it’s better to be lucky than good. And it’s also a good sign that he was still able to come through without his best stuff. He ranked 332nd on the Updated Top 477 Dynasty Rankings.

Jace Jung DET, 2B, 22.9 – Jung went lefty on lefty off Solometo on a pitch that was so bad I’m not even sure what it was. I’m assuming it was a hanging slider. They all count the same though, and Jung is more than handling his business since getting the call to Double-A with 4 homers and a 118 wRC+ in 19 games. The Jung’s are taking the baseball world by storm this year, and it won’t be long before baby bro Jace joins his big bro Josh in the majors.

James Wood WAS, OF, 20.10 – Wood unloaded for his 13th homer in 58 games at Double-A, and he did it with an impressively short and quick swing. That type of swing gives hope his hit tool will be good enough to let the huge power/speed combo shine, but there is undeniable hit tool risk with a 32.7% K% at the level. I’m buying the talent, just like I am with the similarly tall and thin Elly (who cracked his 10th MLB homer yesterday).

Carson Williams TBR, SS, 20.1 – Okay, 11 blurbs is long enough to go without mentioning my targets going off, right? My man Williams went 5 for 5 with 2 doubles at High-A, and most importantly, he didn’t strike out once. He’s been excellent all season, but he’s been especially great over his last 33 games with 9 homers and a .973 OPS. The 30.9% K% is too high, but he has the type of talent to overlook that one small snafu. He also has the defensive prowess to keep him on the field while he works through the hit tool issues.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)