Posted on by Michael Halpern

End of Season 2024 Top 438 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon)

Let’s close out the regular season with a bang! It’s End of Season Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week! As usual, I’m going over 400 deep with blurbs for every player. Top 25 free here on IBW. But you guys already know that the fun is really just getting started with tons of dynasty content coming all off-season on the Patreon, including Dynasty Team Reports, Team Prospect Lists, Deep Positional Rankings, Strategy Articles, Predicting Future Prospect Lists, Top 100+ FYPD Rankings, Top 500+ Prospect Rankings, Top 1,000+ Dynasty Rankings and so much more! But first, here is the End of Season 2024 Top 438 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-END OF SEASON 2024 TOP 322 PROSPECTS RANKS
-END OF SEASON 2024 438 DYNASTY RANKS
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS with full scouting reports and prime projections
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: SEPTEMBER MAILBAG!
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS
-OFF-SEASON CONTENT! – Dynasty Team Reports, Team Prospect Rankings, Deep Positional Rankings, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks, Top 500+ Prospects Ranks, Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks & so much more!

*Previous Rankings are in parenthesis

1) (4) (4) (3) (4) (5) Shohei Ohtani – LAD, RHP/DH, 30.2 – Ohtani just went 50/50, is working on 55/55, and just might mess around and go 60/60 if he keeps going insane this last week. He also might already get back on the mound this post season. Age be damned, I don’t see how I could possibly pass on Ohtani for any other player in the game. It just seems silly.

2) (1) (1) (2) (2) (2) Bobby Witt Jr. – KCR, SS, 24.3 – Only a 30/30 season for Witt? How cute

3) (2) (2) (1) (9) (9) Elly De La Cruz – CIN, SS/3B, 22.8 – I told you to embrace the risk when it came to Elly, ranking him 9th overall this off-season, and it paid off in a major way with him going 25/65. The .261 BA was pretty damn good too considering expectations. I laugh in the face of risk … except when it comes to rollercoasters, horseback riding, skydiving, mountain climbing etc … but when it comes to taking an unproven uber athlete with hit tool risk 9th overall, danger is my middle name

4) (3) (3) (6) (13) (28) Gunnar Henderson – BAL, SS/3B, 23.3 – Gunning for a 40/20 season. Career bests basically everywhere you look. If steals are devalued in your league (pts, 6+ cat leagues etc …), Gunnar would slide in ahead of Elly

Shadow4) (4) (4) (4) (10) (13) Shohei Ohtani – LAD, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 30.1 – This is where I would rank Ohtani in weekly leagues or as a hitter only. Without the pitching to put him over the top, the age does come into play here a bit

5) (5) (5) (5) (7) (7) Juan Soto – NYY, OF, 25.11 – Is there any doubt that Boras will gun for the 20 year, $1 Billion contract? I don’t think he’ll be able to resist the leaked reports that Boris is asking for a billy. Steals are the only thing Soto lacks for fantasy

6) (7) (6) (7) (8) (8) Kyle Tucker – HOU, OF, 27.7 – Returned from a deep bone bruise and has a 1.113 OPS in 14 games, leaving no concern about his elite ability for 2025. But he’ll get zero hype anyway because that is just how it goes for Tucker. Quiet Killer

7) (8) (15) (4) (1) (1) Ronald Acuna Jr. – ATL, OF, 26.8 – Underwent surgery to repair a torn ACL in his left knee. We’ve already seen Acuna return from a torn ACL and put up a historic season, but switching sports for a second, you can’t help but think of Russell Westbrook and Derrick Rose. Both were explosive young athletes who kept blowing out their knees until the explosion dimmed. They were still good, but no longer in true prime form. Let’s hope Acuna can avoid that fate, and let’s also take into account baseball isn’t basketball. I’m not giving up on Acuna as an elite dynasty player at all, but it’s something to think about

8) (17) (21) (12) (5) (3) Corbin Carroll – ARI, OF, 24.0 – I implored you with everything I had that by decree of fantasy law, you are required to go down with the ship when it comes to elite dynasty assets like Carroll, and luckily, you didn’t actually have to go down with the ship as he righted it, slashing .257/.350/.591 with 19 homers, 17 steals, and a 20.6/11.0 K%/BB% in his last 65 games. The shoulder looks good

9) (6) (9) (8) (11) (12) Aaron Judge – NYY, OF, 32.5 – 55 homers but it only comes with 10 steals. Super unimpressive

10) (9) (7) (13) (10) (10) Yordan Alvarez – HOU, OF, 27.3 – Perfect 6 for 6 on the bases, which crushes his previous career high of 1 steal. The knees must be feeling pretty good, which is all we want for dynasty

11) (12) (8) (10) (3) (6) Fernando Tatis Jr. – SDP, OF, 25.7 –  Returned from a right femoral stress reaction and is raking with a .939 OPS in 17 games. .393 xwOBA leaves little doubt that he’s still elite, but injuries are constantly popping up, and he’s not running as much this year with 10 steals in 97 games

12) (16) (14) (11) (6) (4) Julio Rodriguez – SEA, OF, 23.8 – Slashing .321/.381/.556 with 12 homers, 6 steals, and a 23.4/7.3 K%/BB% in his last 50 games. He had a .616 OPS in the 87 games before that. He took the slow start thing to a whole new level this year, but I don’t think his owners can stomach another repeat of this. He has to figure it out this off-season

13) (18) (25) (49) (61) (68) James Wood – WAS, OF, 22.0 – As long as the hit tool stayed in a reasonable range, there was zero doubt that Wood would shine, and the hit tool stayed in a reasonable range with a 28.4% K% and 29.7% whiff%. The 92.6/97.3 AVG/FB MPH EV and 28.6 ft/sec sprint did the rest. There are a lot of good candidates to be the top rookie on these rankings, but I’ll take the guy who absolutely smashes the ball much, much, much harder than any of them

14) (19) (27) (24) (20) (18) Jackson Chourio – MIL, OF, 20.6 – Slashed .305/.364/.540 with 16 homers, 14 steals, and a 17.1/7.7 K%/BB% in his last 91 games. He just went .273/21/21 as a 20 year old. Wood vs. Chourio is a coin flip

15) (10) (23) (28) (23) (22) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – TOR, 1B, 25.6 – We can now put the “Vlad has only had a great year in a minor league ballpark” narrative to rest. His 168 wRC+ is a career high this year. Granted he hit 48 homers in the minor league park and only 30 this year, but still. He officially locked in elite status

16) (14) (11) (17) (18) (15) Jose Ramirez – CLE, 3B, 32.0 – Ramirez might go 40/40 and nobody cares. Barely hear about it. The Ohtani Shadow is real

17) (20) (22) (62) (102) (151) Jackson Merrill – SDP, OF/SS, 21.4 – Merrill’s argument for being the top rookie on this list is that his .370 xwOBA outpaces them all, and by a large margin. His extremely low launch used to be an area of concern, and now his 14.7 degree launch is leaps and bounds above Chourio and Wood. The reason he sits 3rd among them though is because he doesn’t seem to run quite as much throughout his career

18) (22) (17) (19) (78) (106) Paul Skenes – PIT, RHP, 22.3 – 1.99 ERA with a 32.9/6.3 K%/BB% in 131 IP. The easiest #1 dynasty pitcher in the game ranking I’ve ever made. The only reason he doesn’t rank even higher is that pitchers break, and pitchers that throw 98.8 MPH seem to break even more. Sucks to even acknowledge, but it’s part of the game.

19) (13) (10) (16) (17) (13) Bryce Harper – PHI, 1B, 31.11 – Career 142 wRC+ and has a 143 wRC+ this season. Still elite and I would bet on him being elite (or near elite) deep into his 30’s

20) (15) (13) (9) (12) (14) Mookie Betts – LAD, 2B/OF, 31.11 – Mookie is on pace to steal the most bases in a season since 2018, and if he didn’t get hurt, he would have surpassed 20. The decline years are lurking, but they ain’t here yet

21) (27) (26) (27) (22) (20) Wyatt Langford – TEX, OF, 22.10 – It took until September, but the underlying numbers kept saying to stay patient, and the breakout is here now, slashing .316/.395/.605 with 5 homers, 4 steals, and a 22.1/10.5 K%/BB% in his last 20 games. He’s crushing the ball with a 92.1 MPH EV over that time. I feel good about having Chourio as my #1 overall prospect over Langford (and Holliday) last off-season, but this story is far from over. This is just Chapter 1

22) (23) (30) (39) (32) (26) Francisco Lindor – NYM, SS, 30.10 – After nearly another 30/30 season, Lindor might finally not be so underrated going into next year. But I will say that him fighting through this back injury with extra injections to get back on the field doesn’t feel all that great for his long term health as he gets deeper into his 30’s. I agree with his decision to gut it out, don’t get me wrong, but I think it’s worth mentioning

23) (32) (53) (94) (123) (165) Jarren Duran – BOS, OF, 28.0 – Backed up the 2023 breakout with an even better year in 2024, currently sitting 15th overall on the Razzball Player Rater. He hits it hard, he’s lightning fast, and the hit tool just keeps on improving. There is nothing that says he’s a fluke at all. Value highly with confidence

24) (31) (40) (41) (36) (38) Oneil Cruz – PIT, SS, 25.11 – 95.6 MPH EV trails only Ohtani and Judge, and just barely. He now has a .255 career BA in 987 career PA, so while the hit tool is still a risk, I don’t think it’s that risky. And he went 22 for 23 on the bases. This is a truly elite dynasty asset, and he still feels on the underrated side

25) (21) (12) (14) (15) (46) CJ Abrams – WAS, SS, 23.11 – Sent down to the minors because he was partying at a casino until 8 AM when he had a 1 PM game. He’s 23 years old. The Nationals are so far out of it. I say give the kid a break. This doesn’t impact his dynasty value at all for me. He just went 20/30 with his power ticking up a notch this year. I think there is another jump coming in the future. This is just the beginning

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-END OF SEASON 2024 TOP 322 PROSPECTS RANKS
-END OF SEASON 2024 438 DYNASTY RANKS
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS with full scouting reports and prime projections
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: SEPTEMBER MAILBAG!
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS
-OFF-SEASON CONTENT! – Dynasty Team Reports, Team Prospect Rankings, Deep Positional Rankings, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks, Top 500+ Prospects Ranks, Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks & so much more!

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Top 1,000 Rankings for 2024 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues (Patreon)

I gave you a day to catch your breath with the Top 583 2024 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings dropping on Monday. Now it’s time to unveil the Top 1,146 2024 Dynasty Baseball Rankings over on the Patreon. Top 80 are free here on the Brick Wall. Analysis and Prime Projections for every player. The All-in-One Spreadsheet is also coming soon. These lists will be released here on Imaginary Brick Wall in late March. Here is the Top 1,000 Rankings for 2024 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON & SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 1,000 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 500 2024 PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 132 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (+Target & Strategy Guide)
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B–Top 161 SS-Top 316 OF-Top 321 SP-Top 102 RP
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST
-ALL-IN-ONE RANKINGS SPREADSHEET COMING SOON
-DYNASTY TEAM REPORTS FOR EVERY TEAM (Top 10+ Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)
-UPCOMING: Position by Position Target Series, Top 600 OBP Rankings, Top 600 Points/6+Cats/OPS “Universal” Rankings, Predicting the 2024 Top 50 Prospects Rankings that doubles as a Bold Predictions article, and much more

1) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 26.3 – Acuna went 40/70, but somehow the most mind blowing thing about his 2023 season is that he all of a sudden turned into an elite contact hitter with an 11.4% K% (23.6% in 2022). He also must have eaten his spinach this off-season, because the six foot Acuna Popeye’d the league with the type of exit velocity numbers usually reserved for giant human beings only. His 121.2 Max EV was the hardest hit ball all season. The next 6 leaders in that category were the 6’6” Giancarlo Stanton, the 6’5” Elly De La Cruz, the 6’4” Shohei Ohtani, the 6’5” Matt Olson, the 6’2” Jake Burger, and the 6’5” Yordan Alvarez. His 94.7 MPH AVG EV was bested only by the superhuman Aaron Judge (97.6 MPH). He got slower with a career worst 28 ft/sec sprint, but he still stole 73 bags. He hit the ball on the ground more than ever with a career high 49.5% GB%, but he still hit 41 bombs. He’s the undisputed #1 overall dynasty player. 2024 Projection: 132/37/103/.318/.398/.582/61

2) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS, 23.10 – Witt is Exhibit A on why you should be betting on Anthony Volpe and Jordan Walker in 2024. When an elite prospect shows all the ingredients of a future breakout in their rookie year, you need to be all over whatever small discount you can get them for. These are the type of breakouts that look so obvious in hindsight, you forget you ever doubted them in the first place. Witt raised his FB/LD EV from 92.6 MPH in 2022 to 94.4 MPH in 2023 and all hell broke loose with him cracking 30 dingers. He also lowered his K% by 4 percentage points to 17.4% and raised his BB% by 1.1 percentage points to 5.8%. The scary thing is that he was on the unlucky side too with a .343 wOBA vs. .373 xwOBA. There is another level to unlock here. His .904 2nd half OPS is probably what he has in store for us in 2024. 2024 Projection: 102/34/107/.283/.336/.522/47

3) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 23.7 – The 5’10” Carroll laughs at me for even hinting that the 6’0” Acuna isn’t big. Carroll truly had to deal with the little man discrimination his entire career, falling to a ridiculous 16th overall in the 2019 MLB Draft (I ranked him 3rd overall personally). He’s done nothing but prove the doubters wrong since then, culminating with a rookie season that immediately catapulted him to elite dynasty status. He smashed 25 homers with a 90 MPH EV. Nobody doubted his speed, and he didn’t disappoint with 54 steals and a 30.1 ft/sec sprint. The cherry on top is that he put up career best contact rates with a 19.4% K%, and that includes his entire minor league career going back to rookie ball. The only thing that could stop him is the major shoulder injury he suffered in 2021 which reared it’s ugly head again this July. He doubled over in pain after a swing and said, “I took a swing, and I felt a shift in my shoulder, shocking, tingling sensation go down my arm and then my hand go numb. I was just holding it thinking it came out of the socket, pretty much thought that the season was over.” It ended up being “minor,” but I’m not sure how you can’t at least have that in the back of your mind when ranking Carroll. He’s too good to be scared off by it, but my tolerance for injury risk might be higher than yours. 2024 Projection: 121/28/85/.288/.374/.496/52

4) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 23.3 – When Julio gets off to a slow start in 2024, remind yourself not to panic. 2023 was the 2nd year in a row where it took him a minute to hit his stride. He put up a mediocre .721 OPS in 87 games pre break before exploding in the 2nd half, slashing .308/.363/.578 with 19 homers and 15 steals in 68 games. He crushes the ball with a 92.7 MPH EV that led to 32 homers, and he’s lightning fast with a 29.6 ft/sec sprint that led to 37 steals. The only weakness he has that the guys ranked above him don’t have is a poor approach. His 37.4% chase rate is well below average and so is his 28.2% whiff%. I’m betting on the plate approach improving as he gains more experience, but the guys ranked above him are already further along. 2024 Projection: 104/33/105/.280/.341/.507/38

5) Shohei “(deferred) Money” Ohtani LAD, RHP/DH, 29.9 – First there were asterisks for juiced players. Then there were asterisks for juiced balls. And now there are asterisks for juiced contracts. The 700* million dollar man (*680 million of it deferred) tore the UCL in his right elbow in August and seems like he opted to go with an internal brace procedure rather than get his 2nd Tommy John surgery in 5 years. It’s still a serious surgery that will prevent him from pitching until 2025, but he’s expected to be good to go as hitter at the start of 2024. As we saw with Bryce Harper, the odds Ohtani will continue to be an elite hitter are very high, but we can’t be surprised if he doesn’t get back to prime form until the 2nd half. He was in the midst of the best offensive season of his career with career highs everywhere you look (EV, wOBA, xwOBA, K%, BB%, Hard Hit%), and his 180 wRC+ led the league by a good margin (Judge was 2nd at 174). I’m not concerned with Ohtani’s bat at all, but it’s fair to question his ability to stay healthy as a pitcher. His stuff is so good with a 96.8 MPH fastball that he could probably stand to lose a tick or two and still be near elite. He also strikes me as the type who will thrive in his old age with diminished velocity, so I’m far from writing him off as a pitcher, but I do believe you have to factor in the added risk. 2024 Projection: 96/33/94/.277/.380/.538/18

6) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, OF, 25.3 – Maybe it was the shoulder, maybe it was the wrist, or maybe it was the lack of PED’s, but it’s undeniable that Tatis had some of his upside shaved off the top in 2023. His barrel% was down 10.3 percentage points to 11%, his exit velocity was down 2 MPH to 91.9 MPH, his hard hit% was down 6.3 percentage points to 49.3%, and his xwOBA was down .039 to .368. He also wore down as the season went along with a .871 OPS in the 1st half versus a .665 OPS in the 2nd half. But take a look at all of those numbers. Even with him being considerably worse than his prime, he was still an elite fantasy player with 25 homers and 29 steals in 141 games. He missed all of 2022, he had to rehab both his shoulder and wrist surgeries over the off-season, and he also had to deal with so much controversy, whether it was self inflicted or not. He’ll actually be able to have a normal off-season going into 2024, and he’s still only 25 years old, which makes me think what he did in 2023 is his floor. And considering he also got unlucky (.332 wOBA vs. .368 xwOBA which is in the top 10% of the league), his floor is probably even higher than that. The decline in production takes him out of the conversation to be the #1 dynasty player overall, but this is still an easy Top 10 dynasty asset at the very least. 2024 Projection: 98/33/96/.274/.348/.515/31

7) Juan Soto NYY, OF, 25.6 – This is a contract year for Soto, and Scott Boras is his agent. He hasn’t really had that crazy career year yet. 2020 looked like it could have been that year with 13 homers and 202 wRC+ in 49 games, but it was a shortened season. What I’m trying to say is, the Baseball Gods owe him one, and his move from one of the very worst ballparks for lefty homers to one of the very best only adds fuel to that fire (I’m expecting him to start pulling the ball just a bit more). He doesn’t run enough with only 12 steals to truly be considered in the same tier as the guys ranked above him, but in any league that devalues speed, he is right there with them. He’s an OBP God with an 18.6% BB% and .410 OBP. It’s his 4th year in a row with more walks than strikeouts. His 6.7 degree launch is low, but he’s launch proof with a 98.7 MPH FB/LD EV that is 4th best in all of baseball. It led to a career high 35 homers. Everything seems to be setting up for Soto to have one of those silly statistical seasons that won’t even look real, and then he will land one of those silly contract numbers that won’t even look real. 2024 Projection: 115/38/115/.287/.422/.546/13

8) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 27.2 – Just call him the quiet killer because no elite player gets less hype than Kyle Tucker. He was one homer shy of going 30/30, and he did it while putting up career bests in both K% (13.6%) and BB% (11.9%). He has well below average speed with a bottom 33% sprint speed, but he once again proved stolen bases are not just about pure speed, there is a major skill component to it as well. Maybe it’s fitting he has the shortest blurb out of his elite dynasty brethren, because he’ll just continue to quietly kill your fantasy competition. No fanfare necessary. 2024 Projection: 99/30/115/.285/.365/.520/28

9) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 22.3 – Call me crazy, but I’m actually encouraged by Elly’s 33.7% K%, 29.7% whiff%, and .235 BA in his age 21 year old season in the major leagues. In last year’s Top 1,000 Rankings, I projected Elly’s 2023 triple slash would be .232/.294/.433, and it ended up being .235/.300/.410. Not bad if I don’t say so myself, but point being, this is exactly what you should have expected. He also had a 26.9%/14.0% K%/BB% in 38 games at Triple-A, which proves he is capable of making real improvements to his plate approach over time (30.9%/7.7% K%/BB% at Double-A in 2022). And his hit tool only needs to get to below average to be an absolute fantasy monster. The power is elite with a 91.2 MPH EV and 119.2 Max EV which was the 3rd highest mark in the league. It came with a 3.6 degree launch, but he has the type of power that is launch proof (13 homers in 98 games), and he’s never had any major groundball issues in the minors, so that number is only coming up. He also has elite speed with 35 steals and a 30.5 ft/sec sprint speed which was tied for the fastest man in baseball with Bobby Witt. I always say, “if you can’t take risks in fantasy, where can you take risks,” and I’m not even sure Elly is as risky as people think. I’m all in. 2024 Projection: 91/25/85/.244/.317/.452/52 Prime Projection: 103/33/109/.261/.337/.506/65

10) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 26.9 – The only two categories Yordan isn’t a beast in are games played and steals. He dealt with left hand soreness in March that delayed the start of his spring training, he missed about a week in April with a neck injury, and he missed almost 2 months in June and July with an oblique injury. It limited him to just 114 games. The surgeries he’s gotten on both of his knees are also still fresh in everyone’s mind, but the fact that none of his issues had to do with his knees is encouraging to me. He played in 135 games in 2022 and 144 games in 2021. I think it’s one year too early to really slap him with the injury prone tag. And he’s too elite to be too risk averse with a career .978 OPS and a .440 xwOBA in 2023, which was the 3rd best mark in the league behind only Judge and Acuna. I’m not getting too hung up on the injury risk quite yet. 2024 Projection: 94/37/111/.296/.403/.589/1

11) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 26.8 – While many were jumping ship after a down and injured 2022, I kept the faith by ranking Robert 30th overall, and he responded with the type of year we all knew he was capable of, slashing .264/.315/.542 with 38 homers, 20 steals, and a 28.9%/5.0% K%/BB% in 145 games. He laughed in the face of chase rate (40.5%) and chased his way to a career best 15.4% barrel%. His speed bounced back with a top 16% sprint speed, and he played in a career high 145 games. I wish I could say he is now completely out of the woods and we can trust him completely, but the injury black cloud always seems to be lurking. His season ended on September 24th with a sprained MCL in his knee which would have kept him out for up to a month if the season didn’t end a week later. He also dealt with hamstring, quad, calf, hip, and finger injuries throughout the season. Rostering Robert definitely feels like playing Press Your Luck, begging to avoid any whammies (no whammies, no whammies, no whammies, STOP). Robert is elite enough where you can’t live completely in fear of his next injury, but projecting him for a fully healthy season feels optimistic. 2024 Projection: 88/32/84/.268/.320/.528/19

12) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 31.11 – Judge’s 97.6 MPH EV is the highest average exit velocity in the history of Statcast. The only years Judge didn’t lead the league in average exit velocity was 2015 when he was in the minors, and 2020 during the shortened season. His .468 xwOBA not only led the league, and it wasn’t only a career high, it was the highest xwOBA amongst qualified hitters in history if you take out 2020 (Soto put up a .475 xwOBA that season in 49 games). And he did all of this while gutting it out in the 2nd half with a torn ligament in his big toe which knocked him out for almost 2 months in June and July. He isn’t expected to need surgery this off-season, which is a good sign, and he had a 1.066 OPS in September, so I’m inclined to not harp too much on the injury. 2024 Projection: 121/46/119/.283/.405/.594/9

13) Bryce Harper PHI, 1B, 31.6 – Harper was nice enough to leave zero doubt that his power will fully return to prime form in 2024 coming off Tommy John surgery. After hitting just 3 homers in first 58 games, he turned it around by launching 23 homers in his final 79 games, including the postseason. He returned way ahead of schedule anyway, so it’s not surprising he wasn’t fully healthy until the 2nd half. I would expect your typical elite Harper season in 2024, and he strikes me as the type of all time great that will be raking deep into his 30’s. 2024 Projection: 107/35/100/.289/.400/.540/14

Shadow13) Shohei Ohtani LAD, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 29.9 – This is where I would rank Ohtani in weekly leagues or as a hitter only. 2024 Projection: 96/33/94/.277/.380/.538/18

14) Mookie Betts LAD, 2B/OF, 31.6 – Betts played 70 games at 2B in 2023 and it was announced he will be LA’s starting 2B moving forward. He immediately becomes the best 2B in baseball. He is in the midst of a later career power surge, which makes up for his declining speed. After hitting a career high 35 homers in 2022, he topped that in 2023 by jacking out 39 dingers. His 92.4 MPH EV and 20.6 degree launch were both career highs, and his 48.5% Hard Hit% was the 2nd best mark of his career. As I mentioned, his speed is declining with a bottom 47% of the league sprint speed, but he still used his wiles to nab 14 bags. He may not be in his physical prime anymore, but Betts proved in 2023 that he has plenty of years of elite production left in him. 2024 Projection: 120/34/91/.290/.381/.536/13

15) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 31.6 – Mookie Betts’ beastly season is a reminder that not every year can be a banger. It wasn’t Ramirez’ best season with only 24 homers in 156 games, but there is absolutely nothing in the underlying numbers that would be concerning in the slightest, and we know his power is fine after watching him drop Anderson on a single punch. He’s also not slowing down on the bases at all with 28 steals. Even in a down-ish year, he still finished 29th overall on the Razzball Player Rater. 2024 Projection: 94/31/101/.281/.360/.511/26

16) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 23.1 – Harris’ surface stats took a step back in his 2nd year in the bigs with a .808 OPS in 2023 vs. a .853 OPS in 2022, but his underlying numbers actually showed a player who was improving. His contact rates took a big step forward with a 18.7% K% (24.3% in 2022), his EV took a 1.4 MPH jump to 90.9 MPH, his launch increased by 3.1 degrees to 7.6, and his xwOBA increased by .020 to .355. He hit .293 with 18 homers and 20 steals in 138 games, and he was even better in his final 100 games with a .912 OPS. He still needs to improve his plate approach with a 4.6% BB%, but Harris cemented his status as a near elite dynasty asset in 2023. 2024 Projection: 91/23/82/.287/.333/.480/27

17) Trea Turner PHI, SS, 30.9 – I was pounding the table to buy low on Turner all season, but he came on too strong at the end of the year to get any discount on him this off-season. He slashed .339/.391/.677 with 16 homers, 9 steals and 16.9% K% in his final 47 games, and he’s currently destroying the playoffs with a 222 wRC+ in 11 games. He had a .656 OPS in his first 108 games. He also hasn’t lost even half a step with the 4th fastest sprint speed in the game. That buy low window slammed shut hard at the trade deadline. 2024 Projection: 105/25/83/.289/.340/.481/35

18) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 20.1 – Baseball now uses minor leaguers like guinea pigs, testing out every hairbrained idea they have all willy nilly, and Chourio got caught in the crosshairs of it. The Southern League used a pre-tacked ball for the first half of the season, and Chourio put up a lowly .714 OPS in 71 games. When they went back to the regular ball, he immediately went gangbusters, slashing .324/.379/.538 with 11 homers, 21 steals, and a 13.4%/8.0% K%/BB% in 57 games. He closed out the season at Triple-A where he put up a 4.2%/8.3% K%/BB% in 6 games. He did all of this as a 19 year old. The power/speed combo is plus to double plus, and it sure looks like his contact rates are entering the elite range if you ignore what he did in the 1st half. Jackson Holliday seems to be the consensus #1 prospect in the game (and Wyatt Langford is the trendy #1 for fantasy), but if Chourio hit with the regular ball all season, I’m not so sure that would be the case. The main thing Holliday has over Chourio right now is plate approach, which makes him the safer prospect, but for fantasy, I gotta give the ever so slight edge to the power/speed combo. Milwaukee showed us they are all in by signing him to an 8 year, $82 million contract. It makes it much more likely that he will break camp with the team, and even if doesn’t, it won’t be long until he’s up for good. Chourio is my #1 fantasy prospect. 2024 Projection: 69/21/75/.258/.320/.469/25 Prime Projection: 101/32/104/.283/.353/.523/41

19) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 20.4 – Holliday’s power/speed combo really wasn’t that huge with only 12 homers and 24 steals (in 33 attempts) in 125 games spread across 4 levels (A, A+, AA, AAA). It dropped off even further in the upper minors with 5 homers and 4 steals in 54 games. It seems crazy to start his blurb off with criticism, but when the battle for the top prospect in the game is so close, it needs to be highlighted. Now that we got that out of the way, Holliday had an absolutely insane season where he slashed .323/.442/.499 with a 20.3%/17.4% K%/BB%. He was in high school last year, and he displayed one of the most advanced plate approaches of any prospect all the way through Triple-A. This is why everyone drools over kids with baseball bloodlines, they tend to be far advanced beyond their years. As I mentioned, the power isn’t fully developed yet with relatively low flyball rates, but he hits the ball hard with a 30.2% Hard Hit% and a 90.9 MPH EV in 40 batted balls at Triple-A, so I’m not concerned about the power long term. He has the safety edge over Chourio, but it’s not like Chourio is a risky prospect, so Holliday slots in at #2 for me. 2024 Projection: 78/16/71/.270/.339/.441/20 Prime Projection: 117/27/94/.296/.382/.506/28

20) Wyatt Langford TEX, OF, 22.5 – I have Chourio, Holliday, and Langford in a tier of their own atop my Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings. The only reason Langford is 3rd is because Chourio/Holliday have a longer professional track record and more impressive age to level production. But his power, speed, hit tool, plate approach, and production can rival anyone’s. He was selected 4th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft on the back of elite production in the SEC, slashing .373/.498/.784 with 21 homers, 9 steals, and a 44/56 K/BB in 64 games. He clearly separated himself from Dylan Crews in his pro debut, slashing .360/.480/.677 with 10 homers, 12 steals, and a 17.0%/18.0% K%/BB% in 44 games, and he was equally as dominant in the upper minors as he was the lower minors. He’s the total package, and if you wanted to rank him 1st overall on prospects rankings, I wouldn’t argue with you. 2024 Projection: 81/26/77/.262/.338/.479/18 Prime Projection: 103/34/109/.277/.364/.535/24

21) Spencer Strider ATL, RHP, 25.5 – If Strider’s 3.86 ERA opens up even the smallest buy window, I would be all over it. He had a 3.04 xERA, 2.92 xFIP, and 2.86 SIERA. His 22 homers against weren’t bad at all, so you can’t even blame a homer problem. ERA is just about the least predictive stat there is. He got unlucky. Simple as that. His 36.8%% K% led the league by a large margin, and strikeouts are king in fantasy. Glasnow was 2nd at 33.4% and Skubal was 3rd at 32.9%. His control continued to improve with an above average 7.6% BB%, and he proved he can handle a full workload with 186.2 IP. He also led the league in wins with 20, and while that was partly due to good luck, Atlanta is a perennial winner, so he should continue to be among the league leaders there. He was the #1 fantasy pitcher in 2024, and considering his age and strikeout upside, he’s in a tier of his own as the easy #1 overall pitcher in dynasty. 2024 Projection: 16/3.18/1.04/266 in 182 IP

22) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 25.0 – Vlad got very unlucky in 2023. His .374 xwOBA (top 7% of the league) vs. .340 wOBA was the 8th largest differential in baseball, and this is the first year he’s ever underperformed his underlying numbers, so this isn’t a trend for him. He crushes the ball with a 92.1 MPH EV, he makes near elite contact with a 14.7% K%, and he raised his launch to a career high 10.5 degrees. With that type of profile, he simply can’t be held down for long. The only thing rattling around my head that gives me some pause is that the only season he really had a beastly year, 2021, was the year he played over half his home games at their spring training ballpark and Triple-A ballpark, both of which played like extreme hitter’s parks. If you take that year out of the equation, he’s really yet to display the ability to be a truly elite fantasy player, but at the end of the day (and the beginning of the day), the underlying numbers don’t lie. He looks setup for a big 2024. 2024 Projection: 92/31/101/.286/.359/.507/6

23) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 27.5 – There is no fancy analysis needed for Devers. He rips the ball (93.1 MPH) with a swing geared for both power and average (12.4 degree launch). His plate approach has also slowly been improving with a career best 19.2%/9.5% K%/BB%. The guy is as safe and consistent as they come. 2024 Projection: 93/34/106/.280/.358/.513/5

24) Austin Riley ATL, 3B, 27.0 – Riley is Devers’ righthanded brother from another mother. The plate approach might only be average-ish, but he rips the ball (92.3 MPH EV) with a swing geared for both power and average (13.5 degree launch). He’s averaging 36 homers with a .285 BA over his last 3 seasons. 2024 Projection: 97/36/102/.274/.347/.519/3

25) Freddie Freeman LAD, 1B, 34.7 – The only question with the 34 year old Freeman is how much longer can he keep it up. I’m ranking him this high because I’m betting on him being productive deep into his 30’s, but he was the 3rd overall fantasy player this year, so this ranking does actually include an age discount. He showed zero signs of decline in 2023 with a .409 xwOBA which was in the top 2% of the league. He’s never had an xwOBA that wasn’t in at least the top 4% of the league in the Statcast era. He’s possibly the most consistently great hitter of his generation. He also took advantage of the new rules with a career high by far 23 steals. Certainly in win now mode Freeman isn’t going anywhere, but even in a rebuild I wouldn’t feel that much pressure to move him. 2024 Projection: 120/30/101/.313/.396/.528/18

26) Francisco Lindor NYM, SS, 30.5 – Lindor put up the quietest 30/30 (actually 31/31) season of all time. He somehow found the fountain of youth with career best power numbers and a major speed bounce back. He notched career bests in EV (91.2 MPH), Barrel% (10.4%), and launch angle (19.2 degrees). His sprint speed hit a 5 year high of 28.2 ft/sec, and he took advantage of the new rules with a career high 31 steals. He managed to do all of this with a bone spur in his elbow which required surgery this off-season, but with how many guys rake right through torn UCL’S and barely miss any time after getting Tommy John surgery, I’m not even sure you need elbows at all to hit. 2024 Projection: 100/30/96/.258/.337/.475/26

27) Matt Olson ATL, 1B, 30.0 – Olson led the league in homers with 54. Schwarber’s 47 was a distant 2nd. His already double plus power leveled up to truly elite levels with a career high in Barrel% (16.4%), EV (93.7 MPH), Max EV (118.6 MPH), Hard Hit% (55.5%) and xwOBA (.394). His .283 BA was probably on the lucky side with a .263 xBA, but the days of being concerned about his hit tool are over with a 23.2%/14.% K%/BB%. 2023 strikes me as a career year, but Olson is one of the premier power hitters in baseball. 2024 Projection: 104/42/119/.267/.368/.549/1

28) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS/3B, 22.9 – If Gunnar took advantage of the new stolen base rules like almost everyone else, Gunnar vs. Carroll would still look very close today, but he only attempted 13 steals in 150 games. It’s not like he couldn’t have run more with a 28.8 ft/sec sprint and a solid 77% success rate, so if he just decides to start running more in 2024, he could quickly rise up the dynasty rankings even further. Even with the modest steal totals, there is a ton to love, led by how hard he crushes the ball. His 92 MPH EV is in the top 9% of the league, and he unsurprisingly raised his launch angle much higher than in his MLB debut in 2022 (2 degrees) with an 11.4 degree launch. He also cemented the huge jump his hit tool took in 2022 with a 25.6%/9.0% K%/BB% this year. It all led to a 123 wRC+ with 28 homers. The only issue he hasn’t corrected is his struggles vs. lefties with a .618 OPS, but Baltimore looks committed to playing him everyday and not turning him into a platoon guy, so I have faith he will hit them well enough over time. Keep in mind he will still be only 22 at the start of next season. 2024 Projection: 97/30/91/.266/.341/.506/15

29) Corey Seager TEX, SS, 29.11 – I ranked Seager 38th overall last off-season, starting his Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “Seager doesn’t get the respect he deserves in the fantasy world,” and I ended it by writing, “If he hits .300 next year with 35 homers it wouldn’t be surprising at all.” He blew past even my high expectations with a .327 BA and an over 40 homer pace if he didn’t miss time. If you include the postseason, he hit almost exactly 35 homers in 136 games (36 homers). He’s an elite hitter with a 93.3 MPH EV, 13 degree launch, .413 xwOBA, and 16.4%/9.1% K%/BB%. Nobody will be underrating him anymore, but the only snafu is that he underwent hernia surgery in late January, which puts the start of his season in question. It doesn’t impact his dynasty value too much, but he’s about to enter his 30’s, and injuries like this can start to take their toll. 2024 Projection: 89/32/98/.291/.369/.538/2

30) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 29.5 – Alonso’s .205 BABIP was dead last among qualified hitters. He has a career .259 BABIP and he had a .279 BABIP in 2022. Point being, his .217 BA is going to bounce back in a big way in 2024, especially considering he has no contact issues with a 22.9%/9.9% K%/BB%. What you’re buying is the elite power anyway, and it was in prime form with 46 homers (3rd most in the league). If that low BA opens up even a crack of buy low value, jump on it. 2024 Projection: 94/42/120/.253/.346/.516/4

31) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 27.3 – I kept the faith on Albies after his down year in 2022, ranking him 40th overall on the Top 1,000 Rankings, and closed out his blurb by writing, “The bottom line is that both the surface and underlying numbers look bad, but his youth and track record is strong enough to overlook it. I seriously doubt he’s all of a sudden not that good.” He rewarded my faith by having a major bounce back in 2023 with a career high 33 homers and career high 124 wRC+. The only thing that didn’t bounce back was his sprint speed which sat at a mediocre 27.5 ft/sec. It resulted in only 13 steals in a year where steals exploded, and while he’s been a very successful base stealer in his career, he was never the type to truly run a ton. 2024 Projection: 98/29/93/.268/.327/.485/15

32) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 26.1 – Bichette’s speed and launch angle are both headed in the wrong direction. He’s putting up old man sprint speeds at just 25 years old with a bottom 42% of the league mark. His sprint speed was in the top 17% of the league in 2019. He missed time with knee tendinitis in August, so maybe that played a role, but his sprint speed was also way down in 2022. It resulted in only 5 steals in 135 games. That seriously cuts down his upside because he’s not a monster home run hitter either with a career worst 6.2 degree launch that resulted in 20 homers. It’s not all bad news though as Bichette still hits the ball very hard with a 90.2 MPH EV and he still makes a ton of contact with a 19.1% K%. His .361 xwOBA was actually a career high. he had a .306 BA and he’s never had a BA under .290 in his 5 year career. BA guys are not my favorite to go after for fantasy, but I’m not willing to classify Bichette as “BA guy” quite yet. Development isn’t linear, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him faster with a higher launch in 2024, and even if he doesn’t improve in those areas, he’s still an impact fantasy hitter. 2024 Projection: 89/25/94/.296/.340/.483/12

33) Royce Lewis MIN, 3B, 24.9 – Royce goes in for ACL surgeries like he’s going in for a tune-up, because he always comes right back firing on all cylinders. He showed double plus power with 19 homers in 64 games (including the playoffs) on the back of a 95.1 MPH FB/LD EV, a 114 MPH Max EV (top 10% of the league), and a 16.2 degree launch. He still has above average to plus speed with a 28.2 ft/sec sprint despite the knee injuries (6 steals), and his plate approach, which was once a bit of a concern as a prospect, was about average with a 23%/8.4% K%/BB%. It all led to a 155 wRC+ in 58 games. When he’s on the field, he’s done nothing but destroy levels since 2022. I implored you to keep buying through the knee surgeries, writing in last years Top 1,000, “I named Lewis a player to target last off-season, imploring you to buy the dip coming off a torn ACL. Now it’s deja vu all over again with Lewis once again down with a torn ACL, and once again I’m imploring you to buy the dip.” … so hopefully you already have him on your team. If not for the added injury risk, which I think you have to at least consider, he might have ranked 15 spots higher. 2024 Projection: 77/29/88/.272/.339/.485/16

34) Jazz Chisholm MIA, OF, 26.2 – Jazz was on pace to go 30/30 if he played a full season (19/22 in 97 games). I know “if he played a full season” is the big question mark as he’s yet to play more than 124 games in his 3 year career, but we would have been talking about him as Top 10 dynasty asset if he played in 140+ games. Ranking him at “only” 33rd overall is the injury discount, and the discount is necessary because unfortunately the injury risk is real. A turf toe injury in May kept him out for 6 weeks which required surgery after the season. He’s expected to be fully healthy going into 2024, but a pretty major surgery during the off-season where he won’t be able to run for at least 3 months isn’t optimal. He also hit the IL for a month during the season with an oblique strain. He played in only 60 games in 2022 and needed surgery on his back and knee that year. The injuries are piling up, but he’ll only be 26 on opening day, and he still has his plus power/speed combo with a 90.4 MPH EV and 28.4 ft/sec sprint. The 30.8%/6.8% K%/BB% isn’t great, but his 27% chase% is slightly above average, and he has a career .245 BA in 1,193 PA, so I’m not too worried about the hit tool tanking. Jazz is one healthy season away from being talked about with the best in the fantasy game. 2024 Projection: 74/26/79/.247/.315/.462/28

35) Jordan Walker STL, OF, 21.10 – The vibe seems to be that Jordan Walker was a bust, or at least a disappointment, but in my book, his value took a jump in 2023. He was a 20/21 year old in the majors who put up a well above average 116 wRC+ in 117 games. He hit the ball hard with an 89.4 MPH EV, he had plus speed with a 28.6 ft/sec sprint, he had an average plate approach with a 22.4%/8.0% K%/BB%, and all the hand wringing over his launch angle early in the season proved to be unfounded with a solid 10.2 degree launch. We can’t expect every prospect to immediately put up MVP numbers when we demand they get called up as 19/20/21 year olds. Being an above average MLB hitter at Walker’s age is extremely, extremely impressive, and for me, it puts him right on track to become the beast we all thought he would be last off-season. 2024 Projection: 87/26/85/.271/.340/.469/15 Prime Projection: 98/31/102/.279/.356/.513/17

36) Junior Caminero TBR, 3B/SS, 20.9 – Caminero was a popular breakout pick this year (me included), and he more than lived up to the consensus hype by going full phenom beast mode. He made a mockery of High-A pitching with 11 homers and a 190 wRC+ in 36 games, and then he barely slowed down at Double-A with 20 homers and a 140 wRC+ in 81 games. He even improved his plate approach at Double-A with a 17.1%/9.1% K%/BB% (25.2%/6.3% at High-A). He completed the phenom cycle by jumping straight from Double-A to the majors as a 20 year old for a cup of coffee (he ordered the cold brew with a .631 OPS in 36 PA, but it obviously doesn’t mean much). His calling card is double plus power with a good feel to hit that reminds me of a righty version of Rafael Devers. And while he didn’t run a ton (5 for 10 on the bases), he put up a 28.6 ft/sec sprint speed in the majors, so he’ll certainly contribute in the category at the least. Tampa Bay is forever crowded, but a player like Caminero forces the issue. 2024 Projection: 47/17/54/.260/.323/.462/5 Prime Projection: 96/35/109/.284/.349/.525/10

37) Eury Perez MIA, RHP, 21.0 – Perez is going to be one of the greatest pitchers we’ve ever seen. He’s 6’8”, 220 pounds with a 97.5 MPH fastball and 3 double plus to elite secondaries. The slider notched a 47.7% whiff% and .226 xwOBA, the curve notched a 54.3% whiff% and .216 xwOBA, and the changeup notched a 46.2% whiff% and .161 xwOBA. He was 20 years old in the majors and put up a pitching line of 3.15/1.13/108/31 in 91.1 IP. The 33.7% whiff% is elite. He’s never had control problems in his career and that will probably end up plus too. The only thing that could stop him is injuries, which unfortunately has to be factored in for all young flamethrowers who have yet to throw a full MLB workload (128 IP is his career high). 2024 Projection: 12/3.36/1.09/193 in 160 IP Prime Projection: 16/2.82/0.96/240 in 180 IP

38) Randy Arozarena TBR, OF, 29.1 – Arozarena couldn’t maintain his blistering start to the season with a much better 1st half (.855 OPS) than 2nd half (.700 OPS), but it all evened out to a typical Arozarena season. He put up a 126 wRC+ in 2023, a 124 wRC+ in 2022, and a 127 wRC+ in 2021. He went at least 20/20 in each season. The man is consistent. He hits the ball very hard (91.7 MPH EV), he put up a career best 11.3 degree launch, he doesn’t have strikeout issues (23.9% K%), he has plus speed (28.4 ft/sec sprint), and he gets on base with a career best 12.2% BB%. That’s a near elite fantasy asset. 2024 Projection: 92/22/84/.260/.355/.442/27

39) Cody Bellinger FRA, OF/1B, 28.9 – Bellinger massively improved his contact rates with a career best 15.6% K% (27.3% in 2022) and career best 20.1% whiff% (27.2% in 2022). It led to a major bounce back season, slashing .307/.356/.525 with 26 homers, 20 steals, and a 15.6%/7.2% K%/BB% in 130 games. It wasn’t only the improved contact rates, he should also thank MLB for the juicier balls as his lowly 91 MPH FB/LD EV with a 17.2 degree launch likely wouldn’t have gotten the job done in 2022 with the dead balls. His 20 steals were a career high (thank you new rules) and his .319 BABIP was a career high (thank you no shift). Was Bellinger on the rules committee this off-season? He was certainly on the lucky side with a .370 wOBA vs. .331 xwOBA, but as long as the ball and rules stay the same, his contact/speed/lift profile should provide very nice fantasy numbers. 2024 Projection: 84/28/91/.268/.327/.470/17

40) Adolis Garcia TEX, OF, 31.1 – Everybody was scared off by the terrible plate approach, so Garcia went ahead and made massive improvements to it. His BB% rose 4.2 percentage points to a well above average 10.3% and his chase rate dropped 8 percentage points to a nearly average 29.3%. That’s remarkable, and it’s a reminder that a player’s plate approach tends to improve as they gain experience, hence why it’s often called a “mature” plate approach. The improved patience didn’t take away any of his power with 39 homers, a 92.1 MPH EV, and a 15.7 degree launch. The only quibble with his season is that his sprint speed dropped considerably to 27.3 ft/sec, and he stole only 9 bags in 10 attempts. With the speed decline and age, it’s hard to predict a major bounce back there, but the maturing at the dish more than makes up for it as he gets deeper into his 30’s. 2024 Projection: 94/35/103/.254/.330/.505/13

41) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 21.7 – The only question is how much power will Carter get to, because the plate approach and speed are impregnable at this point. He’s a line drive hitter who didn’t exactly smash the ball in the minors, although a 89/95.8 MPH AVG/FB EV in his 75 PA MLB debut shows he’s not some light hitting weakling. He’s also 6’4”, 190 pounds and only 21 years old, so more raw power is certainly coming. He hit 12 homers in 105 games at mostly Double-A (133 wRC+), then he set the baseball world on fire by hitting 5 homers in his first 23 games in the majors (180 wRC+), and finally he closed out the year with 1 homer in 17 playoff games (155 wRC+). That’s 18 homers in 145 games. If he can just get to about 25 homers in his prime, the man is going to be a terror. The speed is double plus with a 29.5 ft/sec sprint speed (31 steals overall), and the plate approach is elite. He had a 9% chase% in his MLB debut and he’s been an elite plate approach guy his entire career in the minors. He struggles vs. lefties, but just like with Gunnar Henderson last year, I wouldn’t let that scare you off an elite prospect. The downside is a .260 hitter with 15 homers and 25 steals, which isn’t that bad, and the upside is a .280/25/35 guy. 2024 Projection: 87/18/72/.263/.334/.429/26 Prime Projection: 105/24/80/.278/.367/.468/31

42) Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 25.6 – Cruz was showing major plate approach gains, in an admittingly small sample, before a broken ankle from a home plate collision ended his season. He had a 20%/17.5% BB% K%/BB% in 9 games after putting up a 34.9%/7.8% K%/BB% in 2022. It was a very small sample, but it’s what I expected to happen as Cruz never showed that level of plate approach issues in the minors. Super tall players will always have some swing and miss in their game, but that is acceptable when the talent is huge, and Cruz most certainly has huge talent with an at least plus power/speed combo. If the injury creates any type of discount, I would be all over it. 2024 Projection:  78/27/83/.251/.333/.471/20

43) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 21.8 – I would completely ignore what Lawlar did in his super small sample, 34 PA MLB debut. Don’t even look at his Statcast page, it will only get in your head. Your focus should be on the pitchers he laid waste to in the upper minors. He slashed .278/.378/.496 with 20 homers, 36 steals, and a 20.6%/11.4% K%/BB% in 105 games at Double-A and Triple-A. His contact rates took a big step forward from 2022 (25.1% K%), he has truly elite speed with a 30.1 ft/sec sprint speed, and he hit the ball fairly hard, especially for a 20 year old, with a 31.8% Hard Hit%. He’s 6’2”, 190 pounds with room to add more muscle, so the power is only going up from here. He has legitimate Top 10 dynasty asset potential. 2024 Projection: 69/14/55/.248/.317/.410/25 Prime Projection: 103/24/84/.273/.351/.470/38

44) Gerrit Cole NYY, RHP, 33.7 – Cole’s strikeouts took a major step back in 2023, and that lasted throughout the entire season. His K% was down 5.4 percentage points to 27% and his whiff% was down 7.9% to 26%. The whiffs were down on all of his pitches. He still performed like a true ace with pitching line of 2.63/0.98/222/48 in 209 IP, and the stuff was still huge with a 96.7 MPH fastball, but his 3.48 xERA, 3.60 xFIP, and 3.63 SIERA all say he got lucky. With an elite stud like Cole who has a long track record, you don’t want to slice and dice the numbers too much, but he will be 33 next year, and everyone is human. Even if the strikeouts don’t bounce back, he’s as safe as an ace as there is (say that 10 times fast), but there are some indications he might be coming back to the pack a bit. 2024 Projection: 15/3.27/1.05/230 in 200 IP

45) Matt McLain CIN, 2B/SS, 24.8 – While we’re all drooling over AFL breakouts right now, here is a reminder that McLain tanked in the AFL in 2022 with a .190 BA and 31.2% K%, before becoming one of the biggest MLB breakouts in 2023. He slashed .290/.357/.507 with 16 homers, 14 steals, and a 28.5%/7.7% K%/BB% in 89 games. He obliterated Triple-A too with a 184 wRC+ in 40 games. He has double plus speed with a 29 ft/sec sprint and he has above average power with a 89.3 MPH EV and 13.8 degree launch. His plate approach wasn’t great with a 28.5%/7.7% K%/BB% in the majors, but his chase rate was above average at 25.4%, and his 28% whiff% shows he isn’t going to have any major contact issues. He also had a 20.6%/16.7% K%/BB% in the minors. And the cherry on top is that he is a good defensive player, so he should be safe from the playing time crunch. McLain is the real deal. 2024 Projection: 87/26/83/.269/.343/.468/24

46) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 22.11 – Volpe might be easier to acquire this off-season than he was last off-season, which is wild, but is also par for the course in dynasty leagues. If rookies don’t immediately Corbin Carroll the league, people get discouraged and throw the bust label around. In reality, Volpe’s value should be considerably higher after the year he just had. Not only did he go 20/20 (21/24), but all of the underlying numbers are screaming a future breakout is coming with a 9% barrel%, 88.7 MPH EV, 14.2 degree launch, and 28.4 ft/sec sprint speed. The 27.8%/8.7% K%/BB% wasn’t great, but it’s far from the danger zone, and it’s really not bad for a 21/22 year old who had 99 total PA at Triple-A coming into the year. If cold hard numbers aren’t your thing, Volpe even has Black Magic on his side. His OPS was the number of the beast, .666. I don’t know what is going to happen to Volpe’s soul, but the Devil keeps his promises. Max Kepler was the only player to have a .666 OPS in 2022, and this season he had the highest wRC+ of his career at 124 (.816 OPS). Literally all signs, both natural and supernatural, are pointing towards a big 2024 for Volpe. He’s an easy target. 2024 Projection: 81/25/79/.245/.316/.451/31

47) Jose Altuve HOU, 2B, 33.11 – Altuve was in prime form yet again with a 154 wRC+, .311 BA, 17 homers and 14 steals in 90 games. A broken thumb delayed the start of his season until mid May, and an oblique injury kept him out for most of July, but he was no worse for the wear when on the field. The only crack in the armor is a career low by far 26.9 ft/sec sprint (28.1 ft/sec in 2022). It didn’t stop him from running, but it is the first sign of a true physical decline. He’s been so dominant the last 2 years I almost want to ignore his age and speed decline, but how much longer can the 5’6” Altuve maintain his elite production? 2024 Projection: 101/28/73/.285/.371/.496/19

48) Corbin Burnes BAL, RHP, 29.5 – Burnes had one of the best disappointing seasons of all time. I guess that is what happens when expectations are through the roof. He put up a pitching line of 3.39/1.07/200/66 in 193.2 IP, but it still feels like he was a bust somehow. The 25.5% K% was 5 percentage points lower than 2022 and 11.2 percentage points lower than his peak. His 8.4% BB% was 2 percentage points higher than 2022 and 3.2 percentage points higher than his peak. His velocity was down a tick or two on all of his pitches, and his most used pitch, the cutter (55.4% usage), put up a career worst by far 22.7% whiff%. It sure seems like his days of being so far out in front of the pack are over, but this current iteration of him is still damn good. The trade to Baltimore doesn’t really impact his dynasty value is any meaningful way in either direction. 2024 Projection: 15/3.21/1.03/218 in 190 IP

49) CJ Abrams WAS, SS, 23.6 – It’s almost like they made the new rules and new ball specifically for Abrams. The juicier ball helped his below average power play up (87.4 MPH EV with 18 homers), the banned shift helped lefties the most (all lefties saw their BA increase from .239 in 2022 to .249 in 2023), and the bigger bases/pickoff rules sparked him to start running a ton again (7 steals in 2022 vs. 47 steals in 2023). It wasn’t only the new rules though, he also leveled up by increasing his barrel%, EV, launch, and BB%. Even with all of those gains, he was still a below average hitter with a 90 wRC+, and while he has the type of power/speed combo to thrive in fantasy while being a bad real life hitter, that profile has a way of catching up to you. Considering he’s still only 23 years old, and proved his ability to make meaningful improvements in 2023, I’m betting on him continuing to improve and becoming the fantasy beast we all expected when he was an elite prospect. 2024 Projection: 87/17/71/.267/.321/.430/42

50) Pablo Lopez MIN, RHP, 28.1 – Lopez’ 4-seamer exploded with a 1.4 MPH velocity bump to 94.9 MPH and it immediately turned into one of the best 4-seamers in the game with a 31.5% whiff%. His sweeper, changeup, and curve are all above average to plus pitches that miss bats. His control is plus with a 6% BB% and he induces weak contact with an 87.1 MPH EV against. He definitely broke out in 2023 with a 3.66 ERA and 29.2% K% in 194 IP, but he’s been a really, really good pitcher since 2020, so it’s more of him staying healthy and leveling up. He’s a complete ace. 2024 Projection: 14/3.35/1.13/220 in 185 IP

51) Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 24.3 – Casas has the potential to become one of the next great all around 1B mashers, and we saw what that could look like in the 2nd half of 2023. He slashed .317/.417/.617 with 15 homers and a 23.4%/14.2% K%/BB% in his final 54 games. He smashes the ball with a 91.1/95.2 MPH AVG/FB EV, he lifts the ball with a 15.7 degree launch, he hit lefties well with a .817 OPS, he has no contact issues, and he’s an OBP beast. His .371 xwOBA was in the top 8% of the league, and that includes his slow start. He also hits in a great ballpark. The 1B position is starting to age a bit with Votto, Goldy, and Freeman all getting up there, and I think Casas has the upside to be in the next generation of greats to take their place. I don’t think he will get quite the respect he deserves this off-season. 2024 Projection: 93/32/94/.273/.375/.520/1

52) Manny Machado SDP, 3B, 31.9 – I’ve been all over Machado’s every other year voodoo thing that’s happening. Here is what I wrote in his 2023 Top 1,000 blurb, “I could do an extensive analysis of the underlying numbers, but I’m afraid there are larger forces at play here. Who am I to question the universe? Machado is due for one of his good but not standout seasons in 2023” … hah! I mean, he literally had one of his good but not standout seasons with a 114 wRC+ in 138 games. I don’t even want to waste my time going through all the numbers, we all know what’s going to happen. He’s due for a beastly 2024. 2024 Projection: 86/32/98/.274/.336/.490/8

53) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 32.8 – It was another injury plagued year for Trout with only 82 games played. Nobody can be surprised by that, can they? This year it was a hamate fracture in his wrist which required surgery and effectively ended his season on July 3rd. He’s averaged 79 games over his past 3 years. It’s not only the missed games, the injuries seem to be taking a toll on his performance as it looks like he’s entering a decline phase. The power still looks great with 18 homers and a 91.9 MPH EV, but the .263 BA and 28.7% K% were both career worsts, and a continuation of a decline from 2022. His 12.4% BB% is also much lower than his prime years. He’s still very fast with a 29.5 ft/sec sprint, and while he’s long since stopped running, it shows he hasn’t fallen off a cliff athletically. If he can stay on the field, he should still put up big power numbers at the least, but he simply hasn’t been able to stay on the field. 2024 Projection: 88/35/86/.273/.371/.538/4

54) George Kirby SEA, RHP, 26.2 – Kirby’s 2.5% BB% didn’t only lead all qualified starters, it led all pitchers with more than 24 IP. Elite control isn’t high enough praise. He has generational control. And he uses that generational control to dominate with a fastball heavy profile led by a 96.1 MPH double plus 4-seamer. Neither of his breaking balls generate many whiffs, but his slider induces weak contact, and he’s incorporating a splitter more which killed it with a .202 xwOBA and 35.7% whiff%. He didn’t start throwing the splitter until the 2nd half, and his strikeout totals immediately ticked up. He was great in 2023 with a pitching line of 3.35/1.04/172/19 in 190.2 IP, and I think he’s going to take another step forward in 2024. 2024 Projection: 14/3.31/1.02/183 in 185 IP

55) Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD, RHP, 25.7 – The Dodgers made Yamamoto the highest paid pitcher in history with a 12 year, $325 million contract (plus a $50 million posting fee). That is really all you need to know. He’s expected to be a true ace right from the get go, and signing with the best developmental team in the game also takes a lot of the risk out of his transition to a new ball, new country, new league etc … He’s been a true ace in Japan for years now, and that continued this year with a pitching line of 1.16/0.86/176/28 in 171 IP. He pitched 193 innings in both 2021 and 2022, so there also isn’t any concern of how many innings he can pitch. The fastball sits mid 90’s and regularly hits the upper 90’s. A nasty splitter is his most used secondary, and he also throws a very good curve, 2-seamer, and cutter. He has elite command over all of his pitches, and he has an unique, oddly athletic delivery which he varies constantly to mess with hitters timing. He’s a straight up nightmare to face, and looks like a ready made ace. 2024 Projection: 14/3.42/1.11/195 in 180 IP

56) Zack Wheeler PHI, RHP, 33.10 – Not only isn’t the 33 year old Wheeler slowing down, he’s reaching new levels with a career best 28.6% whiff% and 5% BB%. The stuff is in peak form too with his 95.8 MPH fastball notching a career best .260 xwOBA and 31.4% whiff%. He even added a new pitch to his arsenal, the sweeper, and it was immediately a plus pitch with a .264 xwOBA and 39.2% whiff%. Who says you can’t teach an old dog new tricks? 2024 Projection: 14/3.28/1.06/208 in 190 IP

57) Luis Castillo SEA, RHP, 31.4 – Castillo’s 96.3 MPH 4-seam fastball was the third most valuable 4-seamer in the game (Cole and Gallen ranked 1st and 2nd), and his 33% whiff% on the pitch led all qualified starters. It led to another ace level season with a pitching line of 3.34/1.10/27.3%/7% in 197 IP. He’s a consistent, safe ace. 2024 Projection: 14/3.43/1.14/210 in 188 IP

58) Zac Gallen ARI, RHP, 28.8 – Gallen’s control has improved almost every season to the point he is nearly an elite control guy with a 5.6% BB%. His stuff isn’t overpowering, but it’s very good with 3 above average to plus pitches in his 93.6 MPH 4-seamer, curve (40.6% whiff%), and changeup (31.4% whiff%). He also mixes in a decent cutter and occasional slider. It was good for a pitching line of 3.47/1.12/220/47 in 210 IP. The stuff isn’t really on the level as some of the aces ranked above him, but he’s done nothing but produce in his career. 2024 Projection: 14/3.43/1.10/204 in 195 IP

59) Noelvi Marte CIN, 3B, 22.6 – Everyone called Marte fat and slow this off-season, so of course he put up double plus run times in the majors with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed. Be super wary of scouting speed grades as they are wildly inaccurate (see also, Henry Davis and Nolan Jones). Not only is he a speedster, but he crushed the ball with a 91.3 MPH EV, and the hit tool looked good with a 20.3% K% and .296 xBA in 123 MLB PA. It all resulted in a slash line of .316/.366/.456 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 20.3%/6.5% K%/BB%. He showed those same skills in the upper minors with 11 homers, 18 steals, and a .279 BA in 92 games. He did all of this as a 21-year-old. He’s fast, he hits it hard, he gets the bat on the ball, he produced in the upper minors, he produced in the majors, and he was super young. Quite simply, this is an elite fantasy prospect, and I’m not sure he gets the respect he deserves. 2024 Projection: 77/19/73/.261/.322/.431/22 Prime Projection: 96/27/91/.276/.354/.491/25

60) Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 22.1 – Starting this blurb with anything other than the 73 wRC+ and 0 homers Crews put up in 85 PA at Double-A would be beating around the bush, and you know me, I don’t beat around the bush. The performance was bad enough to have Wyatt Langford clearly pass him for the top spot in first year players drafts (Wyatt’s dominance also had something to do with that), and it might have me considering going with the ready made ace in Yoshinobu Yamamoto over him too, but that is where it ends. 85 PA isn’t enough to sour me on the 2nd overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. Crews is built like a solid rock at 6’0”, 203 pounds, and he swings the bat so fast and powerfully it almost looks like he’s using an illegally light bat (he’s not, at least I don’t think he is ha). The ball explodes off it on contact. He obliterated the SEC from the second he stepped on campus as a freshman, and he kept on improving through his junior year, slashing .380/.498/.689 with 58 homers, 23 steals, and a 146/152 K/BB in 196 career games. He also destroyed the lower minors with a 192 wRC+ in 71 PA at Single-A. His floor feels like a 30+ homer bat without the best BA or tons of steals, but the ceiling is that of a truly elite dynasty player. 2024 Projection: 62/20/71/.257/.329/.473/12 Prime Projection: 94/32/103/.274/.361/.518/16

61) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 21.2 – The backlash to Dominguez’ early career hype made it hard to hold the line, but I remained all in on Dominguez last off-season, ranking him 10th overall, and he more than delivered on that ranking this year. He hit 15 homers with 37 steals and a 25.6%/15.2% K%/BB% in 109 games at Double-A as a 20 year old. Then he quickly ran through Triple-A with a 180 wRC+ in 9 games, before finishing out his season with 4 homers and a 162 wRC+ in 8 games in the majors. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery put a halt to what was sure to be insane hype this off-season, but I wouldn’t let the Tommy John surgery scare you off. It isn’t as big of a deal for hitters as it is for pitchers, and he’s expected to return by the 2nd half of 2024. His extremely good MLB debut will likely make it hard to get good value for him this off-season even with the surgery, so my move would be to hope he needs to shake off some rust when he returns next season to bring his value into a more reasonable range again. 2024 Projection: 30/8/226/.242/.324/.438/10 Prime Projection: 92/26/86/.266/.361/.485/28

62) Freddy Peralta MIL, RHP, 27.10 – A shoulder injury in 2022 put some doubt into Peralta’s ace trajectory coming into 2023, but he proved that was merely a bump in the road. He put up career bests in fastball velocity (94.4 MPH), innings pitched (165.2 IP) and BB% (7.9%). He once again eclipsed a 30% K% at 30.9%. He was also at his best in the 2nd half with a 2.44 ERA and 92/11 K/BB in his final 62.2 IP. Peralta cemented his status as a young ace this year, but because his 3.86 ERA doesn’t look all that great, you might be able to buy him for non ace prices this off-season. 2024 Projection: 12/3.38/1.09/215 in 170 IP

63) Adley Rutschman BAL, C, 26.2 – Rutschman has an advantage over other catchers on playing time alone. His 687 PA led all catchers by far (William Contreras was 2nd at 611). It helps his fantasy profile play up, because he’s a better real life hitter than fantasy hitter with an elite plate approach (14.7%/13.4% K%/BB%) as his most valuable skill. I don’t mean to be too disparaging with that statement, because he has the potential to be a near elite real life hitter with a .373 xwOBA (top 8% of the league). The power is only slightly above average right now with a 92.7 MPH FB/LD EV, 7.5% Barrel%, and 12.6 degree launch, but this was his first full season in the majors, so this is basically the baseline. 2024 Projection: 88/22/85/.286/.381/.458/3

64) Kevin Gausman TOR, RHP, 33.3 – Remember when people were worried about Gausman going from San Francisco to Toronto? (I named him a target that year) Remember when people questioned if he can be consistent with a splitter as his main secondary? Well, those memories are fading as Gausman has been the model of consistency. He put up a pitching line of 3.16/1.18/237/55 in 185 IP. His 31.1% K% was the 3rd best mark in the league among qualified starters. He’s one of the safest aces out there. 2024 Projection: 14/3.30/1.16/214 in 180 IP

65) Blake Snell FRA, LHP, 31.4 – In my first Mailbag Podcast Podcast back in April, I got asked about how concerned we should be with Blake Snell after his rough start to the season, and my response was that he is the type of pitcher to find his groove and rip off like 4 straight starts of double digit strikeouts, so I would hold on. Well, not only did he rip off 4 straight starts, he ripped off 23 straight starts with a 1.20 ERA and 186/72 K/BB in his final 135 IP. He had a 5.40 ERA with a 48/27 K/BB in the 45 IP before that. The problem is, just as easily as he can get red hot, he can also go ice cold with a 13.3% BB% that was a career worst and in the bottom 4% of the league. You are playing with fire with such bad control, which prevents Snell from entering the truly elite pitching tier, but with his extreme strikeout upside and career 3.20 ERA, it would be silly to drop him any further than the tier right under that. 2024 Projection: 13/3.27/1.20/218 in 170 IP

66) Tarik Skubal DET, LHP, 27.4 – Skubal went in for a flexor tendon “upgrade” in August 2022, and he came out one of the best pitchers in baseball when he returned in July. I’m not even going to call it a “surgery,” because me thinks there are more than a few pitchers out there who should elect to have it if you can expect these results. He put up a pitching line of 2.80/0.90/102/14 in 80.1 IP. His fastball jumped 1.7 MPH to 95.8 MPH and it became arguably the best 4-seamer in baseball with a league leading .225 xwOBA (250 pitch min). His changeup was elite too with a 50.6% whiff% that was 3rd best. The slider and sinker were also both above average pitches. His 32.9% K% trailed only Strider and Glasnow. And to top it all off, his control improved to elite levels with a 4.5% BB%. That is almost unheard of for control to actually improve directly coming off major arm surgery. He’ll have to prove he can keep up this level over a full season, but if he can, he’ll be in the conversation for the #1 fantasy starter next year. 2024 Projection: 13/3.36/1.05/190 in 155 IP

67) Nolan Jones COL, OF, 25.11 – You can’t leave the house these days without hearing Nolan Jones this and Nolan Jones that, but I was ringing the 5 alarm bell on Jones back in my June Targets Article, closing out the blurb by writing, “Jones has no joke near elite potential … I would go hard after him.” After that writeup he put up a 1.007 OPS with 11 homers and 14 steals in his final 57 games. He went 20/20 in just 107 games on the season. His speed was vastly underrated as a prospect with a well above average 28.4 ft/sec sprint (are scouts just making up speed grades for most prospects?), but they nailed his power grade with an at least plus 90.1/95.3 MPH AVG/FB EV. He’s also an OBP machine with a 12.5% BB%. The two downsides are that he’s always had high strikeout rates with a 29.7% K%, and he’s never had a high launch angle with a 9.8 degree launch. Coors Field and the low launch should help his BA from completely tanking, but he’s not going to repeat a .401 BABIP. Unfortunately, he played far too well to have much value left on the bone this off-season, but if you took my advice back in June, you already have him. 2024 Projection: 86/26/88/.255/.352/.486/23

68) Jesus Luzardo MIA, LHP, 26.7 – I was super high on Luzardo last off-season, trusting the improved control he showed in the 2nd half of 2022, and that proved wise as his 7.4% BB% was actually above average this year. He also stayed healthy, putting up a pitching line of 3.58/1.21/208/55 in 178.2 IP. The stuff is filthy with a 96.7 MPH fastball, an elite slider that put up a 51.8% whiff% (only Snell and Strider can top that), and a solid changeup that misses bats (36.1% whiff%). He officially fulfilled his ace upside status. 2024 Projection: 13/3.49/1.15/202 in 175 IP

69) Kodai Senga NYM, RHP, 31.2 – Senga blew past all reasonable expectations in 2023. He put up a 2.98 ERA with a 29.1%/11.1% K%/BB% in 166.1 IP, and he was even better in the 2nd half with a 2.44 ERA and 29.8%9.1% K%/BB% in his final 84.2 IP. He did it on the back of an insane forkball that put up a 59.8% whiff% and .184 xwOBA. It was the highest whiff% on any pitch in all of baseball thrown at least 317 times (and if you lower the threshold all the way down to 54 pitches, it was the 4th highest mark). He throws gas with a 95.6 MPH fastball and has as diverse 6 pitch mix. Control is really the only thing that can tank him, and if you take into account he was adjusting to a new league and new ball in the 1st half of the season, his 2nd half 9.1% BB% really isn’t bad at all. It’s definitely possible he takes another step forward in year 2. 2024 Projection: 13/3.37/1.17/197 in 165 IP

70) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 24.5 – Rodriguez had a 7.35 ERA in his first 45.1 IP before Baltimore sent him back down, but he was different man when they called him back up, putting up a 2.58 ERA and 24%/6.9% K%BB% in his final 76.2 IP. He throws a 5 pitch mix led by a 97.4 MPH fastball and three above average to plus secondaries in his changeup, slider, and curve (he mixes in a cutter too). Even in his dominant 2nd half run, he didn’t really excel in any one area. He didn’t miss a ton of bats, the control wasn’t elite, and he didn’t particularly induce a ton of weak contact. It makes me a little hesitant to say he will be a true fantasy ace next season, but with his level of stuff and minor league performance, it seems inevitable he will get there eventually. 2024 Projection: 13/3.59/1.13/181 in 170 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.23/1.01/220 in 190 IP

71) Tyler Glasnow LAD, RHP, 30.7 – Glasnow is 30 years old and he just reached a career high 120 IP this season. An oblique injury was the culprit this year which delayed the start of his year until late May. When he’s on the mound, it’s crystal clear his fantasy upside is matched by very, very few. His 33.4% K% was bested by only Spencer Strider. The stuff is huge with a 96.4 MPH fastball, and the control is above average with a 7.6% BB%. If you want to look on the bright side, it wasn’t an arm injury which got him this year, and if you want to include the minors and the AFL, he threw 144.2 IP in 2014 and 140 IP in 2016. If you want to completely ignore the injury risk, I can see going 30 spots higher on him. The Dodgers doling out a 5 year, $136 million contract extension for him also gives added confidence that a smart organization is willing to bet on him staying healthy enough over the next 5 years to earn that contract. 2024 Projection: 12/3.48/1.11/190 in 145 IP

72) Max Fried ATL, LHP, 30.2 – Fried missed 3 months of the season with a forearm strain, but he looked completely healthy when he returned with his 4th straight year of ace production. He had a pitching line of 2.55/1.13/25.7%/5.8% in 77.2 IP. He induces weak contact with a 86.5 MPH EV against (top 9% of the league), he keeps the ball on the ground with a 4.8 degree launch, he has plus control, and he misses bats with a 27.2% whiff%. 2024 Projection: 14/3.18/1.10/175 in 175 IP

73) James Wood WAS, OF, 21.7 – The K% jumped to 33.7% in 87 games at Double-A, which is exactly what you are worried about with a player this tall (6’6”), but Wood is the type of unicorn athlete where you don’t want to let it scare you off him. He still cracked 18 homers with 10 steals and a 124 wRC+ at the level as a 20 year old. And that was coming off a 155 wRC+ in 42 games at the more age appropriate High-A. Despite his size and high strikeout rate, Wood has a relatively short and quick swing which gives hope he’ll be able to keep the strikeout rate in a range that allows his truly elite talent shine. Don’t expect a high BA, but expect him to kill it everywhere else. 2024 Projection: 45/17/51/.229/.308/.450/13 Prime Projection: 91/30/99/.253/.341/.508/18

74) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 22.0 – I’ve been all in on Pete Crow since before he was drafted, and he finally fulfilled his elite prospect destiny in 2023. The power took yet another step forward with him jacking 20 homers in 107 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s not an EV masher, but he doesn’t hit the ball weakly either, and his high launch will ensure he gets the most out of his still growing raw power. The CF defense and speed are elite with a 29.9 ft/sec sprint speed and 37 steals. There is bit more swing and miss than optimal with a 26% K%, but he’s always generally had a good feel to hit, and he’s never had low BA’s in the minors, so I’m not overly concerned about it. Armstrong has 20/40 written all over him. 2024 Projection: 41/9/29/.241/.310/.407/19 Prime Projection: 91/22/76/.257/.334/.439/34

75) Lane Thomas WAS, OF, 28.7 – Part of me feels like Thomas is a trap. The plate approach isn’t great (5.3% BB%), the hit tool is mediocre (25.8% K%), he was on the lucky side last year (.334 xwOBA vs. .319 wOBA), and the launch isn’t very high (10.8 degrees). But the things he does do well are the things that can result in a fantasy stud. He hits the ball fairly hard (94.6 MPH FB/LD EV), he’s fast (29.3 ft/sec sprint), and he gets the bat on the ball (23% whiff%). If you do those three things well, good things are most certainly going to happen. So while I came into this blurb intending to call Thomas a sell high, the more I really looked into it and thought about his profile, the more I realized he is a buy. I’m in. 2024 Projection: 87/25/83/.257/.318/.465/18

76) Marcus Semien TEX, 2B 33.7 – Projecting stolen bases can be a mystery wrapped in a riddle inside an enigma. Semien stole 25 bases in 2022, and with the new rules in 2023 when everyone was running wild, he stole only 14 bags. He’s as fast and healthy as he’s ever been, but his career high before 2022 was 15, so maybe it should have been expected. He made up for modest steal totals with a career best 14.6% K% and .276 BA (2nd best mark in his career). He also continues to get the most out of his average raw power with a 19.1 degree launch and 49.4% Pull% (29 homers). 2024 Projection: 103/28/86/.266/.335/.474/15

77) Logan Gilbert SEA, RHP, 26.11 – Gilbert is an elite control pitchers (4.7% BB%) with a big fastball (95.7 MPH) and improving secondaries. The whiff% was up 7.1 percentage points on his slider to a respectable 32.2%, 7.3 percentage points on his curveball to 30.6%, and his new splitter was at least plus when he went to it (14.8% usage) with a .185 xwOBA and 34.7% whiff%. Improving the secondaries was the last step to unleash his full potential, and while his 3.73 ERA and 24.5% K% in 190.2 IP doesn’t jump off the screen, it gives him the potential to level up even further in 2024. 2024 Projection: 14/3.54/1.12/193 in 187 IP

78) Aaron Nola PHI, RHP, 30.10 – Nola likely had the worst season of his career (other than his rookie season) taking into account both surface stats and underlying numbers. His 4.46 ERA was the 3rd worst mark of his career and his 3.77 xERA was the worst of his career. A 8.3% Barrel%, 89.3 MPH EV, and 32 homers against were all career worsts, and his 25.5% K% was a 7 year low. Nothing was so bad or so out of the realm of his career norms, and he’s been alternating great years with mediocre years for his entire career, so I don’t think this is the beginning of a true decline. The Phillies obviously agree as they just signed him for 7 years at $172 million. 2024 Projection: 12/3.61/1.12/205 in 190 IP

79) Framber Valdez HOU, LHP, 30.4 – It was a tale of 2nd halves for Framber as he had a 2.27 ERA with a 104/21 K/BB in his first 99 IP and 4.64 ERA with a 96/36 K/BB in his final 99 IP. He also got hit up in 12 playoff innings. The velocity was up on all of his pitches with a 95.3 MPH sinker (93.9 MPH in 2022), but it seems like it actually hurt him as his once insanely elite launch angle (negative 3.6 degrees in 2022) rose all the way to a positive 4.2 degrees. He missed a few more bats with a career high 26.7% whiff%, and his control was a bit better with a 7.1% BB%, but it didn’t make up for all extra flyballs, leading to a 3.46 ERA and 4.33 xERA. He’s a very, very good pitcher no matter how you slice it, but the extreme groundball rate was his best asset, and you might not be able to fully count on that anymore. 2024 Projection: 13/3.41/1.15/192 in 195 IP

80) Riley Greene DET, OF, 23.6 – Greene underwent Tommy John surgery on his non throwing elbow in late September, but since elbows seem to be optional for hitting anyway, he’s expected to be good to go for 2024. I still think you have to give some leeway for rust, especially in the 1st half, but long term, it shouldn’t be an issue. He was in the process of his first breakout before going down with the injury with an 11.3% Barrel%, 91.6/96.1 MPH AVG/FB EV, .363 xwOBA, and 28.1 ft/sec sprint speed. It led to .288 BA with 11 homers, and 7 steals in 99 games (a broken fibula kept him out for over a month in June). I said “first” breakout, because he has more levels in him if he can raise his 6.6 degree launch and improve on his 27.4%/8.4% K%/BB%, which I would bet on him being able to do as he gains experience. There is a chance Greene ends up a better real life hitter than fantasy, but he can potentially be such a good real life hitter that he’ll still be a fantasy beast. 2024 Projection: 86/20/77/.268/.335/.448/12 Prime Projection: 97/27/89/.282/.354/.476/15

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON & SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 1,000 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 500 2024 PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 132 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (+Target & Strategy Guide)
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B–Top 161 SS-Top 316 OF-Top 321 SP-Top 102 RP
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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Top 500 MLB Prospects Rankings for 2024 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues (Patreon)

It’s Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings Week over on the Patreon, and we kick it off today with the Top 500 MLB Prospects Rankings for 2024 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues (I actually go 582 deep). The Top 40 are free here on the Brick Wall. Analysis and Prime Projections for every player. The Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings will drop on Wednesday, and these lists will be released here on Imaginary Brick Wall in late March. Here is the Top 500 MLB Prospects Rankings for 2024 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues (Patreon):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON & SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 1,000 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 500 2024 PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 132 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (+Target & Strategy Guide)
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B–Top 161 SS-Top 316 OF-Top 321 SP-Top 102 RP
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST
-ALL-IN-ONE RANKINGS SPREADSHEET COMING SOON
-DYNASTY TEAM REPORTS FOR EVERY TEAM (Top 10+ Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)
-UPCOMING: Position by Position Target Series, Top 600 OBP Rankings, Top 600 Points/6+Cats/OPS “Universal” Rankings, Predicting the 2024 Top 50 Prospects Rankings that doubles as a Bold Predictions article, and much more

1) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 20.1 – Baseball now uses minor leaguers like guinea pigs, testing out every hairbrained idea they have all willy nilly, and Chourio got caught in the crosshairs of it. The Southern League used a pre-tacked ball for the first half of the season, and Chourio put up a lowly .714 OPS in 71 games. When they went back to the regular ball, he immediately went gangbusters, slashing .324/.379/.538 with 11 homers, 21 steals, and a 13.4%/8.0% K%/BB% in 57 games. He closed out the season at Triple-A where he put up a 4.2%/8.3% K%/BB% in 6 games. He did all of this as a 19 year old. The power/speed combo is plus to double plus, and it sure looks like his contact rates are entering the elite range if you ignore what he did in the 1st half. Jackson Holliday seems to be the consensus #1 prospect in the game (and Wyatt Langford is the trendy #1 for fantasy), but if Chourio hit with the regular ball all season, I’m not so sure that would be the case. The main thing Holliday has over Chourio right now is plate approach, which makes him the safer prospect, but for fantasy, I gotta give the ever so slight edge to the power/speed combo. Milwaukee showed us they are all in by signing him to an 8 year, $82 million contract. It makes it much more likely that he will break camp with the team, and even if doesn’t, it won’t be long until he’s up for good. Chourio is my #1 fantasy prospect. 2024 Projection: 69/21/75/.258/.320/.469/25 Prime Projection: 101/32/104/.283/.353/.523/41

2) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 20.4 – Holliday’s power/speed combo really wasn’t that huge with only 12 homers and 24 steals (in 33 attempts) in 125 games spread across 4 levels (A, A+, AA, AAA). It dropped off even further in the upper minors with 5 homers and 4 steals in 54 games. It seems crazy to start his blurb off with criticism, but when the battle for the top prospect in the game is so close, it needs to be highlighted. Now that we got that out of the way, Holliday had an absolutely insane season where he slashed .323/.442/.499 with a 20.3%/17.4% K%/BB%. He was in high school last year, and he displayed one of the most advanced plate approaches of any prospect all the way through Triple-A. This is why everyone drools over kids with baseball bloodlines, they tend to be far advanced beyond their years. As I mentioned, the power isn’t fully developed yet with relatively low flyball rates, but he hits the ball hard with a 30.2% Hard Hit% and a 90.9 MPH EV in 40 batted balls at Triple-A, so I’m not concerned about the power long term. He has the safety edge over Chourio, but it’s not like Chourio is a risky prospect, so Holliday slots in at #2 for me. 2024 Projection: 78/16/71/.270/.339/.441/20 Prime Projection: 117/27/94/.296/.382/.506/28

3) Wyatt Langford TEX, OF, 22.5 – I have Chourio, Holliday, and Langford in a tier of their own. The only reason Langford is 3rd is because Chourio/Holliday have a longer professional track record and more impressive age to level production. But his power, speed, hit tool, plate approach, and production can rival anyone’s. He was selected 4th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft on the back of elite production in the SEC, slashing .373/.498/.784 with 21 homers, 9 steals, and a 44/56 K/BB in 64 games. He clearly separated himself from Dylan Crews in his pro debut, slashing .360/.480/.677 with 10 homers, 12 steals, and a 17.0%/18.0% K%/BB% in 44 games, and he was equally as dominant in the upper minors as he was the lower minors. He’s the total package, and if you wanted to rank him 1st overall, I wouldn’t argue with you. 2024 Projection: 81/26/77/.262/.338/.479/18 Prime Projection: 103/34/109/.277/.364/.535/24

4) Junior Caminero TBR, 3B/SS, 20.9 – Caminero was a popular breakout pick this year (me included), and he more than lived up to the consensus hype by going full phenom beast mode. He made a mockery of High-A pitching with 11 homers and a 190 wRC+ in 36 games, and then he barely slowed down at Double-A with 20 homers and a 140 wRC+ in 81 games. He even improved his plate approach at Double-A with a 17.1%/9.1% K%/BB% (25.2%/6.3% at High-A). He completed the phenom cycle by jumping straight from Double-A to the majors as a 20 year old for a cup of coffee (he ordered the cold brew with a .631 OPS in 36 PA, but it obviously doesn’t mean much). His calling card is double plus power with a good feel to hit that reminds me of a righty version of Rafael Devers. And while he didn’t run a ton (5 for 10 on the bases), he put up a 28.6 ft/sec sprint speed in the majors, so he’ll certainly contribute in the category at the least. Tampa Bay is forever crowded, but a player like Caminero forces the issue. 2024 Projection: 57/20/64/.260/.323/.462/6 Prime Projection: 96/35/109/.284/.349/.525/10

5) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 21.7 – The only question is how much power will Carter get to, because the plate approach and speed are impregnable at this point. He’s a line drive hitter who didn’t exactly smash the ball in the minors, although a 89/95.8 MPH AVG/FB EV in his 75 PA MLB debut shows he’s not some light hitting weakling. He’s also 6’4”, 190 pounds and only 21 years old, so more raw power is certainly coming. He hit 12 homers in 105 games at mostly Double-A (133 wRC+), then he set the baseball world on fire by hitting 5 homers in his first 23 games in the majors (180 wRC+), and finally he closed out the year with 1 homer in 17 playoff games (155 wRC+). That’s 18 homers in 145 games. If he can just get to about 25 homers in his prime, the man is going to be a terror. The speed is double plus with a 29.5 ft/sec sprint speed (31 steals overall), and the plate approach is elite. He had a 9% chase% in his MLB debut and he’s been an elite plate approach guy his entire career in the minors. He struggles vs. lefties, but just like with Gunnar Henderson last year, I wouldn’t let that scare you off an elite prospect. The downside is a .260 hitter with 15 homers and 25 steals, which isn’t that bad, and the upside is a .280/25/35 guy. 2024 Projection: 87/18/72/.263/.334/.429/26 Prime Projection: 105/24/80/.278/.367/.468/31

6) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 21.8 – I would completely ignore what Lawlar did in his super small sample, 34 PA MLB debut. Don’t even look at his Statcast page, it will only get in your head. Your focus should be on the pitchers he laid waste to in the upper minors. He slashed .278/.378/.496 with 20 homers, 36 steals, and a 20.6%/11.4% K%/BB% in 105 games at Double-A and Triple-A. His contact rates took a big step forward from 2022, he has truly elite speed with a 30.1 ft/sec sprint speed, and he hit the ball fairly hard, especially for a 20 year old, with a 31.8% Hard Hit%. He’s 6’2”, 190 pounds with room to add more muscle, so the power is only going up from here. He has legitimate Top 10 dynasty asset potential. 2024 Projection: 69/14/55/.248/.317/.410/25 Prime Projection: 103/24/84/.273/.351/.470/38

7) Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD, RHP, 25.7 – When it comes to potentially elite, all category hitting prospects, you have to pry them from my dead cold hands, which is why I would struggle to give up any of the hitting prospects ranked above for Yamamoto (or even the few ranked after him depending on my team build). In fantasy, pitchers can’t contribute in every pitching category (saves at least, and some leagues have both saves and holds), so that right there limits their upside relative to an elite hitter. Not to mention the much much much higher injury risk which can knock out 2 years of their career off a single injury, and then the stress of whether or not they will get back to 100%. On a real life list, I can see ranking Yamamoto 1st overall, but for fantasy, it’s just not how I play the game, even for a pitcher that is expected to be as good as Yamamoto. The Dodgers made him the highest paid pitcher in history with a 12 year, $325 million contract (plus a $50 million posting fee). That is really all you need to know. He’s expected to be a true ace right from the get go, and signing with the best developmental team in the game also takes a lot of the risk out of his transition to a new ball, new country, new league etc … He’s been a true ace in Japan for years now, and that continued this year with a pitching line of 1.16/0.86/176/28 in 171 IP. He pitched 193 innings in both 2021 and 2022, so there also isn’t any concern of how many innings he can pitch. The fastball sits mid 90’s and regularly hits the upper 90’s. A nasty splitter is his most used secondary, and he also throws a very good curve, 2-seamer, and cutter. He has elite command over all of his pitches, and he has an unique, oddly athletic delivery which he varies constantly to mess with hitters timing. He’s a straight up nightmare to face, and looks like a ready made ace. 2024 Projection: 14/3.42/1.11/195 in 180 IP

8) Noelvi Marte CIN, 3B, 22.6 – Everyone called Marte fat and slow this off-season, so of course he put up double plus run times in the majors with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed. Be super wary of scouting speed grades as they are wildly inaccurate (see also, Henry Davis and Nolan Jones). Not only is he a speedster, but he crushed the ball with a 91.3 MPH EV, and the hit tool looked good with a 20.3% K% and .296 xBA in 123 MLB PA. It all resulted in a slash line of .316/.366/.456 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 20.3%/6.5% K%/BB%. He showed those same skills in the upper minors with 11 homers, 18 steals, and a .279 BA in 92 games. He did all of this as a 21-year-old. He’s fast, he hits it hard, he gets the bat on the ball, he produced in the upper minors, he produced in the majors, and he was super young. Quite simply, this is an elite fantasy prospect, and I’m not sure he gets the respect he deserves. 2024 Projection: 77/19/73/.261/.322/.431/22 Prime Projection: 96/27/91/.276/.354/.491/25

9) Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 22.1 – Starting this blurb with anything other than the 73 wRC+ and 0 homers Crews put up in 85 PA at Double-A would be beating around the bush, and you know me, I don’t beat around the bush. The performance was bad enough to have Wyatt Langford clearly pass him for the top spot in my Top 130 2024 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (Wyatt’s dominance also had something to do with that), and also for me to prefer the newly minted highest paid pitcher in baseball history (Yamamoto), but that is where it ends. 85 PA isn’t enough to sour me on the 2nd overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. Crews is built like a solid rock at 6’0”, 203 pounds, and he swings the bat so fast and powerfully it almost looks like he’s using an illegally light bat (he’s not, at least I don’t think he is ha). The ball explodes off it on contact. He obliterated the SEC from the second he stepped on campus as a freshman, and he kept on improving through his junior year, slashing .380/.498/.689 with 58 homers, 23 steals, and a 146/152 K/BB in 196 career games. He also destroyed the lower minors with a 192 wRC+ in 71 PA at Single-A. His floor feels like a 30+ homer bat without the best BA or tons of steals, but the ceiling is that of a truly elite dynasty player. 2024 Projection: 62/20/71/.257/.329/.473/12 Prime Projection: 94/32/103/.274/.361/.518/16

10) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 21.2 – The backlash to Dominguez’ early career hype made it hard to hold the line, but I remained all in on Dominguez last off-season, ranking him 10th overall, and he more than delivered on that ranking this year. He hit 15 homers with 37 steals and a 25.6%/15.2% K%/BB% in 109 games at Double-A as a 20 year old. Then he quickly ran through Triple-A with a 180 wRC+ in 9 games, before finishing out his season with 4 homers and a 162 wRC+ in 8 games in the majors. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery put a halt to what was sure to be insane hype this off-season, but I wouldn’t let the Tommy John surgery scare you off. It isn’t as big of a deal for hitters as it is for pitchers, and he’s expected to return by the 2nd half of 2024. His extremely good MLB debut will likely make it hard to get good value for him this off-season even with the surgery, so my move would be to hope he needs to shake off some rust when he returns next season to bring his value into a more reasonable range again. 2024 Projection: 30/8/26/.242/.324/.438/10 Prime Projection: 92/26/86/.266/.361/.485/28

11) James Wood WAS, OF, 21.7 – The K% jumped to 33.7% in 87 games at Double-A, which is exactly what you are worried about with a player this tall (6’6”), but Wood is the type of unicorn athlete where you don’t want to let it scare you off him. He still cracked 18 homers with 10 steals and a 124 wRC+ at the level as a 20 year old. And that was coming off a 155 wRC+ in 42 games at the more age appropriate High-A. Despite his size and high strikeout rate, Wood has a relatively short and quick swing which gives hope he’ll be able to keep the strikeout rate in a range that allows his truly elite talent shine. Don’t expect a high BA, but expect him to kill it everywhere else. 2024 Projection: 45/17/51/.229/.308/.450/13 Prime Projection: 91/30/99/.253/.341/.508/18

12) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 22.0 – I’ve been all in on Pete Crow since before he was drafted, and he finally fulfilled his elite prospect destiny in 2023. The power took yet another step forward with him jacking 20 homers in 107 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s not an EV masher, but he doesn’t hit the ball weakly either, and his high launch will ensure he gets the most out of his still growing raw power. The CF defense and speed are elite with a 29.9 ft/sec sprint speed and 37 steals. There is bit more swing and miss than optimal with a 26% K%, but he’s always generally had a good feel to hit, and he’s never had low BA’s in the minors, so I’m not overly concerned about it. Armstrong has 20/40 written all over him. 2024 Projection: 41/9/29/.241/.310/.407/19 Prime Projection: 91/22/76/.257/.334/.439/34

13) Walker Jenkins MIN, OF, 19.1 – Selected 5th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, the 6’3”, 215 pounds Jenkins has that sweet lefty swing that just oozes offensive potential. It’s athletic, quick, under control, powerful, smooth … I can go on and on. It’s hard to watch this guy hit and not completely fall in love. It has the potential for at least plus hit and plus power at peak, and he’s also a good athlete with above average run times. But we don’t have to only dream on the potential, as Jenkins’ showed it to us clear as day in his pro debut, slashing .362/.417/.571 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 12.2%/7.8% K%/BB% in 26 games split evenly between rookie ball (138 wRC+) and Single-A (182 wRC+). It’s the type of profile that can be an elite dynasty asset a la Kyle Tucker. Langford, Crews, and Yamamoto are locked in as my top 3 FYPD picks, and while there are good arguments for Skenes or even Matt Shaw at #4, I don’t think I can pass up on the truly “generational” (or maybe nearly generational would be more accurate ha) upside of Jenkins. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 94/31/102/.273/.345/.510/16

14) Roman Anthony BOS, OF, 19.11 – I ended Anthony’s 2023 Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “There is a lot of refinement needed, but this is a high upside bat who could explode up rankings if everything comes together.” … well, everything came together and Anthony exploded up rankings, slashing .272/.403/.466 with 14 homers, 16 steals, and a 24.2%/17.5% K%/BB% in 106 games at mostly Single-A (109 wRC+) and High-A (164 wRC+). It was a little concerning that the K% jumped to 30.6% at High-A, but then he closed out the season at Double-A and had a 185 wRC+ with a 13.6%/18.2% K%/BB% in 10 games. And he did all this starting the season as an 18 year old. He’s an elite athlete at 6’2”, 200 pounds with a plus power/speed combo, powerful lefty swing, and a mature plate approach. The only things preventing him from being ranked even higher is that he’s not great at lifting the ball with an under 25% Flyball%, and he wasn’t a great base stealer with 16 steals in 23 attempts. He hits the ball so hard he can survive without a huge launch, and he has time to refine his base stealing skills as well, so neither are major concerns. He’s on a short list to be the #1 overall fantasy prospect in baseball by this time next year. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 96/25/88/.273/.358/.472/16

15) Jackson Jobe DET, RHP, 21.9 – Jobe made his season debut in mid June from lumber spine inflammation, which obviously sounded worse than it really was, because he immediately looked like the best pitching prospect in baseball when he returned. He had a 2.81 ERA with a 32.6%/2.3% K%/BB% in 64 IP at mostly High-A. He closed the season out with a gem at Double-A, going 6 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER, and a 6/0 K/BB, and then he went to the AFL and dominated in that extreme hitter’s environment with a 2.87 ERA and 19/5 K/BB in 15.2 IP. He looks absolutely electric on the mound at 6’2”, 190 pounds with an athletic delivery and a double plus 4 pitch mix. He was known for his high spin slider coming into the draft, and the pitch is so filthy it almost doesn’t look real. His changeup dominated as well with nasty tailing diving action, the fastball sits mid 90’s with excellent movement, and the cutter is a high spin pitch that misses bats. And he does all of this with pinpoint control. He still has to prove it in the upper minors, which I’m not too concerned about, and he has to prove he can stay healthy and maintain his stuff with a full MLB starters workload, which is more concerning, but that’s just the pitching prospect game. He’s my #1 pitching prospect in baseball, non Yoshinobu Yamamoto division. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 15/3.18/1.03/220 in 180 IP

16) Paul Skenes PIT, RHP, 21.10 – Selected 1st overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Skenes’ season was nothing short of jaw dropping with a pitching line of 1.69/0.75/209/20 in 122.2 IP in the SEC. His fastball sits in the upper 90’s and routinely hits over 100 MPH. His slider is elite, and while he didn’t go to his changeup as much, that pitch is also nasty. He also displayed plus control of his entire arsenal. He’s 6’6”, 235 pounds with a relatively athletic delivery and he’s a good athlete in general as evidenced by the fact he is also an excellent hitter. He had a career 1.121 OPS in 119 games in the Mountain West before transferring into the SEC. There were some whispers about poor fastball shape in his 6.2 IP pro debut, but I wouldn’t let that sour you on a generational type pitching prospect. He’ll still be just 21 years old on Opening Day, so plenty of refinement, tinkering, new pitches etc … are coming down the road. 2024 Projection: 8/3.80/1.27/133 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.28/1.06/237 in 190 IP

17) Matt Shaw CHC, 2B/SS, 22.5 – Selected 13th overall, Shaw is only 5’11”, but he’s a thick dude who has real power, and he combines that with above average speed and excellent base stealing skills. He has that little man leg kick (which Chicago toned down a hair in pro ball) that I absolutely love in the mold of a Alex Bregman, Spencer Steer, and Zach Neto. It seems to be working for these slightly undersized guys, and it’s certainly working for Shaw. He smashed 24 homers with 18 steals and a 1.142 OPS in 62 Big Ten games. He also impressed in the wood bat Cape Cod League with 5 homers, 21 steals, and a 1.006 OPS in 36 games. He then ran through pro ball like it was nothing, finishing the year at Double-A slashing .292/.329/.523 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 17.1%/4.3% K%/BB% in 15 games at the level. Shaw was my top draft target pre-draft (I actually pointed out Shaw as my top target back in February before the season even started), but now that he absolutely blew up in pro ball, there is no chance you get great value on him. He’s worth his very high draft price though. 2024 Projection: 36/10/43/.253/.312/.432/11 Prime Projection: 85/25/89/.271/.337/.469/21

18) Ricky Tiedemann TOR, LHP, 21.7 – Tiedemann’s dominance in the AFL quieted some of the risk that was growing after an injured and mixed bag season in 2023. He had a 2.50 ERA with a 23/8 K/BB in 18 IP. He went 5 IP in 3 of the 4 starts after not reaching 5 IP the entire season. The stuff is elite with a mid 90’s fastball and two plus secondaries in his slider and changeup. He also looks the part at 6’4”, 220 pounds with an almost sidearm lefty delivery. If he stays healthy and throws the ball over the plate, he’ll be an easy ace, but those are the two areas that can trip him up. He pitched only 62 innings all year, including the AFL, because of a biceps injury that kept him out for almost 3 months. It will probably take 3 years to truly build up his innings fully, and we all know the injury risk with young flamethrowers like this. His 12% BB% is also nearing the danger zone where inconsistency can end up a part of the profile. The profile isn’t without risk, but when dealing in upside prospect flamethrowers, that is just the game. He’s an elite pitching prospect. 2024 Projection: 5/3.81/1.31/111 in 100 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.38/1.19/213 in 170 IP

19) Parker Meadows DET, OF, 24.5 – I know this ranking seems high, but Meadows is looking mighty similar to my Nolan Jones and Zack Gelof buy calls from mid-season, and if you look at redraft and dynasty rankings this off-season, those guys now get valued in the range that elite prospects get ranked, or even higher. Meadows has the potential to make that same jump from afterthought prospect to highly valued dynasty asset, and you should get in this off-season before it happens. He has a very fantasy friendly skillset with the build and athleticism to back it up, but he always got vastly underrated on prospect lists. And unlike Jones and Gelof who have played far too well to still be underrated this off-season, Meadows is setting up to be in perfect buy territory with a .699 OPS in 37 games. He had a 89.3 MPH EV, 18.3 degree launch, 29 ft/sec sprint, 24% whiff%, and 11.7% BB%. And to top it all off, his at least above average CF defense should keep him in the lineup. That is a recipe for tons of fantasy goodness, and you might be able to acquire him for barely anything this off-season. His 293 NFBC ADP shows his perceived value to fantasy upside could be as wide as anyone’s right now. He’s a major target. 2024 Projection: 79/23/76/.248/.328/.432/24

20) Colt Keith DET, 3B/2B, 22.8 – Keith more than hinted at a big breakout in 2022 with a 150 wRC+ in 48 games at High-A, but a shoulder injury cut the explosion short, and even though he made it back to dominate the AFL (1.004 OPS in 19 games), the hype was still relatively subdued last off-season. Well, the explosion continued right into 2023, and this time he did it in the upper minors with a 163 wRC+ and 14 homers in 59 games at Double-A, followed up by a 119 wRC+ and 13 homers in 67 games at Triple-A. He hits the ball very hard, he has a mature plate approach, and the hit tool is at least above average. He’s one of the most complete prospect hitters in the game, and while I already assumed he was going to break camp with the team, it’s now a foregone conclusion with him signing a guarantied 6 year extension with the club.. 2024 Projection: 74/24/81/.258/.329/.445/2 Prime Projection: 89/29/92/.276/.352/.480/3

21) Coby Mayo BAL, 1B/3B, 22.4 – My boldest prediction in last off-season’s Predicting the 2024 Top 50 Prospects Rankings was that Coby Mayo would explode to a Top 10 prospect, predicting that “Mayo will follow in Gunnar Henderson’s footsteps with an off the charts type season in the upper minors. He’ll put up a 150 wRC+ at Double-A and a 130 wRC+ at Triple-A. The K% will be under 25%, the power will be huge, and there will be some surprising speed too.” … Mayo put up a 178 wRC+ in 78 games at Double-A and a 127 wRC+ in 62 games at Triple-A. The power was huge with 29 homers in 140 games, and the K% was under 25% at 24.1%. I don’t think I could have nailed that more even if I was actually able to see into the future. The surprising speed didn’t really show up with only 5 steals, but better than nothing. The 6’5”, 230 pound Mayo is now a truly elite power hitting prospect, just as I expected. 2024 Projection: 31/11/35/.242/.319/.455/2 Prime Projection: 86/34/99/.265/.346/.535/6

22) Jackson Merrill SDP, SS, 20.11 – Merrill did everything you could have asked of him in 2023. Most importantly, he brought his GB% way down from 59.6% at Single-A to 48.6% at High-A and 33.5% at Double-A. It resulted in 15 homers in 114 total games. His already strong contact rates got even better with a 12.1% K%, and he proved all of his skills will transfer to the upper minors, slashing .273/.338/.444 with 5 homers, 5 steals, and a 11.8%/8.5% K%/BB% in 46 games at Double-A. I’m still not seeing a monster power/speed combo, which is why I wasn’t the highest guy on him last off-season, but a few seasons of .300/20/20 doesn’t seem like that much of a reach. 2024 Projection: 13/2/9/.256/.307/.408/3 Prime Projection: 84/20/81/.283/.338/.451/17

23) Chase DeLauter CLE, OF, 22.6 – A broken foot delayed the start of DeLauter’s pro career until June of this year, but he quickly answered every question you could have had about him in resounding fashion. He didn’t play in the toughest college conference (Coloniel Athletic Association), so seeing his hit tool and advanced plate approach completely transfer to pro ball is huge. He put up a 12.5%/5.7% K%/BB% in 42 games at High-A (164 wRC+), a 10.7%/17.9% K%/BB% in 6 games at Double-A (149 wRC+), and a 10.1%/12.8% K%/BB% in 23 games in the AFL. For a man with his type of talent at 6’4”, 235 pounds, that is incredibly exciting. He hit only 5 homers in 57 regular season games, but he doesn’t have any major groundball issues, he has plus raw power, and he’s hit 5 homers in 23 AFL games. The power is there. He also didn’t run a ton with 6 steals, but keep in mind he was coming off the foot injury, and he nabbed 5 bags in the AFL. With a full healthy season in 2024, it’s almost inevitable that he will be in consideration for Top 10 overall prospect status real quick. 2024 Projection: 28/6/24/.257/.319/.426/7 Prime Projection: 88/25/86/.274/.343/.472/17

24) Emmanuel Rodriguez MIN, OF, 21.1 – Baby Bonds scared us all for a minute there with a .677 OPS in his first 27 games at High-A coming off a season ending meniscus tear in 2022, but he was back to his dominant self after that with a .927 OPS, 14 homers, 18 steals, and a 27.3%/20.7% K%/BB% in his final 78 games. He finished the season with a stupendous 145 wRC+ in 99 games. He has at least plus power, the ability to lift the ball, speed, and elite on base skills. The only concern is the hit tool, but some of those issues are surely due to his extreme patience. This is truly elite dynasty upside, especially in an OBP league or 6+ cat league, and I think he’s still on the underrated side. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 94/29/89/.252/.361/.490/18

25) Ethan Salas SDP, C, 17.10 – At this point, I wouldn’t even be surprised if Ethan Salas broke camp with the big league club this spring 😉 (I think I’m just joking) … San Diego flew him through the minors at absolutely unprecedented rates. He made his pro debut at Single-A as a fucking 16 year old!!! Is that even legal? And the even crazier thing is that he dominated with a 122 wRC+, 9 homers, 5 steals, and a 25.9%/10.9% K%/BB% in 48 games. SD then got a little too nutty by promoting him all the way up to Double-A to close out the season where he struggled with a 51 wRC+ in 9 games. He struggled at High-A before that too with a 35 wRC+ in 9 games. Regardless, what Salas did at Single-A for his age is truly mind blowing, and I hesitate to put a cap on what his ultimate upside could be. It might be crazy to say his ceiling is one of the greatest catchers of all time, but with how crazy San Diego handled him this year, let’s just all jump aboard the crazy train. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 84/29/92/.278/.362/.505/10

26) Samuel Basallo BAL, C/1B, 19.8 – The biggest issue with Basallo has nothing to do with him. It’s that Adley isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. And with Baltimore trying to build a Tampa Bay North situation, I don’t think they are going to feel pressured to trade him either. His bat will profile just fine at 1B, but now we’re talking about competition with Coby Mayo and possibly Heston Kjerstad too. Maybe I’m just borrowing trouble a bit too much, because Basallo looks like he has a special bat. He’s a built up 6’3” with a treacherous lefty swing that is made to do damage, slashing .313/.404/.551 with 20 homers, 12 steals, and a 94/61 K/BB in 114 games at mostly Single-A and High-A. Four of those games came at Double-A where he put up a 220 wRC+. He’s a complete hitter with power, contact, and patience. And he did all of that as an 18 year old for most of the season. If defense wasn’t a slight issue (he’s not a particularly good defensive catcher either), I would likely be even higher on him, but he has the type of bat where maybe you should just completely ignore it. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 84/32/95/.272/.354/.517/5

27) Max Clark DET, OF, 19.4 –  Clark is the 2023 draft version of Pete Crow Armstrong and Corbin Carroll, two guys who I was the high man on in their first year player draft class, although Clark actually got the respect he deserved by getting selected 3rd overall. Maybe the success of those aforementioned players paved the way for a guy like Clark to get valued correctly. As you can tell from the comps, double plus speed with a plus hit tool and developing power is what you are buying. He’s a pretty thick and muscular 6’1”, 190 pounds, so I don’t think you have to squint too hard to see legitimate power developing down the line, even if he’s more a line drive hitter currently. After dominating rookie ball with a 146 wRC+ in 12 games, he got slowed down a bit at Single-A with a 73 wRC+ and 29.4% K% in 11 games, but he still had a .353 OBP, so it’s not like he was completely overmatched or anything. 5×5 BA leagues are going to be his bread and butter, but like Carroll, he can be a beast regardless of league type. He has elite dynasty asset upside. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 93/18/72/.278/.347/.433/33

28) Jett Williams NYM, SS, 20.4 – Jett Williams got much thicker in all the right places in 2023, and that extra muscle paid dividends with him cracking 14 homers in 125 games split between Single-A (79 games), High-A (36 games), and Double-A (10 games). 9 of those homers came in his final 47 games. He combines the uptick in power with elite speed (45 steals), and an excellent plate approach (22.1%/19.5% K%/BB%). If he wasn’t 5’6”, he might be a consensus elite prospect already. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 93/20/77/.274/.350/.445/38

29) Cade Horton CHC, RHP, 22.7 – Horton was a star quarterback in high school, and his pithing delivery very much looks like he’s throwing a football with a short arm action thrown from around his ear. That type of arm action tends to produce good spin rates, and Horton can mostly certainly spin a potentially double slider that falls completely off the table. The plus fastball has good movement too and sits mid 90’s. He also mixes in a changeup and curveball that have above average potential. He used that plus stuff to obliterate pro ball in his debut with a 2.65 ERA and 33.5%/7.7% K%/BB% in 88.1 IP split between 3 levels (A, A+, AA). The K/BB numbers dropped a bit when he got to Double-A with a 28.4%/10.1% K%/BB% in 27 IP, but he still crushed the level with a 1.33 ERA. He only averaged around 4 inning outings and Chicago was very careful with him in general as this was truly his first fully healthy season coming off Tommy John surgery in 2021. He still has to prove he can handle a full MLB starter’s workload while maintaining his stuff and staying healthy, but he’s on the right track to doing that. I would put high end #2 starter upside on him. 2024 Projection: 2/3.95/1.31/42 in 40 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.48/1.17/178 in 160 IP

30) Shane Baz TBR, RHP, 24.9 – Baz underwent Tommy John surgery in late September 2022, so he should be fully healthy for 2024 assuming he has no setbacks. If you’re going to take the Tommy John discount on pithing prospects, make sure they are elite ones, and Baz is most certainly an elite one. When healthy, he throws 3 potentially double plus pitches in his mid to upper 90’s fastball, slider, and curve, to go along with a developing lesser used changeup. He struggled with control earlier in his pro career, but he improved it to about average levels in 2021 and 2022. That level of stuff with average control screams ace upside. I do think you have to at least take into account the added risk from major elbow surgery, and keep in mind he has a career high of 92 IP, so it might take 3 years before he can truly throw a full top of the rotation workload, assuming he’s actually physically able to do it, but I also understand if you want to ignore all of it for his insane upside. 2024 Projection: 7/3.76/1.19/110 in 100 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.38/1.11/190 in 160 IP

31) Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 22.11 – Strikeouts are the only thing we have to worry about with the uber talented 6’6”, 235 pound beast, which is why his 28.2% K% in 78 PA at Double-A is actually encouraging. That number could have easily skyrocketed against more advanced pitching after putting up a 29% K% in 100 games at High-A. Jones can live in the upper 20’s and still thrive due do his double plus power/speed combo. He hit 16 homers and stole 38 bags in 117 games. His groundball rates are on the high side, but with how hard he hits the ball, it might actually be a good thing to ensure his batting average doesn’t tank too low. It’s more or less the Elly De La Cruz package, and just like I’m buying Elly, I’m buying Jones too. 2024 Projection: 27/7/23/.217/.283/.411/8 Prime Projection: 76/23/82/.241/.318/.465/26

32) Termarr Johnson PIT, 2B, 19.10 – Just call me Prospectdamus, because I nailed Johnson’s 2023 season in my Predicting the 2024 Top 50 Prospects Rankings back in February, writing, “Johnson’s hit tool at Single-A won’t be as good as the hype with an over 20% K% and under .280 BA. The power/speed numbers will be good though, and he’ll still destroy the level with a 130 wRC+.” … Johnson’s K% was over 20% at 26.7% and his BA was under .280 at .244, but he still destroyed the level with a 141 wRC+, 13 homers and 7 steals in 75 games. He put up almost identical numbers at High-A too with a 142 wRC+ in 30 games. He hits the ball hard, he has a very mature plate approach, and he has some speed. He didn’t hit his ceiling projection, but I would say he still lived up to the hype. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 93/25/82/.264/.351/.478/15

33) Ronny Mauricio NYM, 2B, 23.0 – Mauricio tore his ACL and will underwent surgery after a non contact injury on the bases in Winter Ball. It’s deju vu all over again with Edwin Diaz tearing his knee in the WBC last off-season. It’s getting so sad for Mets fans that I don’t even want to crack a joke about it. I just feel bad. Mauricio was a major target for me this off-season, so it’s just a major bummer all around. He’ll likely miss the entire 2024 season, and even if he doesn’t, you can’t count on him for anything at the MLB level. He also wasn’t a burner, so even a small drop in speed isn’t great. I still like him. but he’s no longer a real target for me. Here was my write-up for him prior to going down with the injury, just so we can remember the good times: “I named Mauricio one of my top targets in the Top 10 Early Off-Season Dynasty Baseball Target article on Patreon. Mainstream prospects lists have been slowly sliding him down the rankings the closer he’s gotten to the majors, but I’ve done the exact opposite on my lists. He crushes the ball with a 117.3 MPH Max EV that was the 10th hardest hit ball all season. He had a 90.7 MPH AVG EV in 108 MLB PA (91.1 MPH at AAA). He loves to run with 7 MLB steals and 24 AAA steals, and his speed gets underrated with an above average 27.7 ft/sec sprint. He’s never had any major contact issues and he most certainly looks the part at 6’3” with a vicious swing. He doesn’t have a good plate approach with low walk rates, but keep in mind he’s always been very young for his level, and his 6.6% BB% at Triple-A (6.5% BB% in the majors) was a career high, so I wouldn’t bet against future improvement there either. His mediocre ranking on prospects and mediocre .643 OPS in the majors should create a very nice buy opportunity this off-season.” 2024 Projection: OUT Prime Projection: 78/24/83/.267/.325/.461/18

34) Sebastian Walcott TEX, SS, 18.1 – I know that nobody really cares/remembers who was “first” on a player. And being “first” on a player is a nebulous concept anyway as I guess the person who was really the first was the one to identify him when he was like an 8 year old probably. And saying you were “first” on a player who signed for $3.2 million might seem like a stretch in hindsight … but having said all that, I was first on Walcott 😉 …. his extremely elite athleticism at 6’4”, 190 pounds jumped off the screen in every video I watched of him last off-season before he was getting even a whisper of real dynasty hype. If you were a Patreon subscriber last off-season, I told you to target this kid in every first year player draft. His hype picked up in a major way later in the off-season, and I ain’t even mad at it, because he deserved the love. Texas knew they had a special kid on their hands too, promoting him to stateside rookie ball after just 9 games in the DSL, and he thrived, slashing .273/.325/.524 with 7 homers, 9 steals, and a 32.5%/6.4% K%/BB% in 35 games. The contact rates and plate approach were rough enough to assume that will be an area of his game he needs to work on, but they weren’t so bad considering his age to let it scare you off him. I’m all in on Walcott. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 84/32/92/.257/.328/.491/23

35) Druw Jones ARI, OF, 20.4 – I think we’ve all been spoiled by how many players came back with little to no rust from major shoulder surgery (Carroll, Lawler, Jung), and unfortunately, that wasn’t the case for Jones. He put up a .490 OPS with 0 homers in his first 25 games, and he battled hamstring and quad injuries all year too. But he finally settled down and showed glimpses of his special talent to close out the season, slashing .339/.438/.500 with 2 homers, 6 steals, and a 20.5%/15.1% K%/BB% in 16 games at Single-A. Obviously it would have been preferrable for him to light the world on fire all season, but this year was his very first taste of pro ball, he was coming off major shoulder surgery, and he dealt with multiple lower body injuries. I would be very careful about judging such a special talent like this too harshly under those conditions, and he showed what’s to come at the end of the year. He needs to learn how to get the ball in the air more as his groundball rates were very high, but he isn’t the type of player who needs an extreme launch to thrive with double plus speed, a relatively mature plate approach, and plus raw power potential. Tack on plus CF defense, and Jones is a high floor player with all the upside still present from his draft year. Buy low if you can. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 91/24/83/.268/.344/.476/31

36) Colt Emerson SEA, SS, 18.8 – Selected 22nd overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, the 6’1”, 195 pound Emerson had an electric pro debut, both statistically and visually. He slashed .374/.496/.550 with 2 homers, 8 steals, and a 17.5%/14.9% K%/BB% in 24 games at rookie ball (251 wRC+) and Single-A (147 wRC+). He has an athletic, lightning quick lefty swing that the ball absolutely rockets off of. It’s geared for both power and average. He’s not a true burner, but he has speed and he was perfect on the bases. He’ll also be 18 years old for most of the 2024 season. He checks off almost every box that you look for in a potential elite prospect coming out of the draft (size, power, average, speed, age, sweet swing, production). If you’re drafting in the mid to late 1st round, and all the buzzy names are off the board, you can confidently take Emerson knowing he can easily end up amongst the best in the class. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 93/26/86/.277/.356/.475/15

37) Andrew Painter PHI, RHP, 21.0 – Painter underwent Tommy John surgery in late July 2023, which will keep him out for all, or almost all of 2024. As I wrote in the Baz blurb, if you’re going to take the Tommy John discount on pithing prospects, make sure they are elite ones, and Painter is most certainly an elite one. He had a silly pitching line of 1.56/0.89/155/25 in 103.2 IP spread across 3 levels (A, A+, AA) in 2022. He’s 6’7”, 215 pounds with plus control of an upper 90’s fastball, plus slider, potentially plus change, and an average curve. The timing of his elbow injury in spring training and the ultimate decision to get surgery in July makes it that he will miss two entire seasons. I do think it is prudent to factor in at least some extra injury/performance risk, but if you want to assume he picks right back up from where he left off without any setbacks, I can see ranking him at least 20 spots higher. 2024 Projection: OUT Prime Projection: 15/3.28/1.08/215 in 180 IP

38) Mason Miller OAK, RHP, 25.7 – Injury risk is why I’ve been hesitant to truly put Mason Miller in the elite pitching prospect tier (he missed 4 months with a UCL sprain in 2023), and it seems Oakland has the same concerns as their GM announced Miller will start 2024 in the bullpen, and likely in the closer role. If I owned Miller, I wouldn’t even be mad at that outcome. Back in the day I was the high guy by far on Josh Hader, and while I was disappointed he never got a chance to prove he could be an ace, he’s been a mainstay on my fantasy team for 7 years. No injuries. No missed time. Just easy dominance that puts your mind at rest about scurrying for closers every year. Miller has the stuff to be in that elite closer tier with a 98.3 MPH fastball and an elite slider that put up a .207 xwOBA and 47.1% whiff% in 33.1 IP over 10 outings in his MLB debut. They haven’t ruled out a return to the rotation down the line, but I wouldn’t count on that as you plan for the future of your dynasty team. 2024 Projection: 4/3.25/1.14/88/25 saves in 65 IP

39) Kyle Manzardo CLE, 1B, 23.8 – Manzardo was getting unlucky all season, and it was only a matter of time for him to get hot. Well, he got hot in a major way on September 8th and he took it right into the AFL. He smacked 6 homers in his final 11 regular season games and then crushed 6 dingers in 22 AFL games. He had a 90.6 MPH EV with very low groundball rates at Triple-A, so like I said, the homer binge was inevitable. The hit tool took a step back from 2022 with a .237 BA and 20.8% K% at Triple-A, so while there are still no contact issues, I might be leaning towards him being power over hit by a small margin. It will depend on how he adjusts vs. MLB pitchers. Cleveland gave up really good value to get him with Aaron Civale, so that 1B job has his name written all over it right out of camp. 2024 Projection: 69/23/77/.251/.328/.452/1 Prime Projection: 85/27/90/.269/.346/.482/1

40) Jung Hoo Lee SFG, OF, 25.7 – San Francisco signed Lee to a 6 year, $113 million contract, which is definitely an eye opening amount, but he earned that contract for his real life baseball value, and not for his fantasy value. He had extremely high groundball rates in Korea with a 59.2% GB% in 2023, and he doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard. He hit only 6 homers in 86 games. He has speed, but he’s not a true burner, and he hasn’t been a good base stealer. He was 6 for 9 in 2023 and has a career high of 13 steals in 20 attempts. He also fractured his ankle in July which required season ending surgery, so that adds even more risk to his future steal projections. And to top it all off, he landed in one of the very worst hitter’s parks in the league. He’s truly elite at what he does well though, and that is hit for average. He had a 5.9%/12.7% K%/BB% in 2023, and he has a career .340 BA. He was a baseball prodigy with baseball bloodlines, dominating the KBO from the time he was 18 years old with a sweet lefty swing. He’s not a small guy at 6’0”, and there is most certainly room to tack on mass at a relatively skinny 171 pounds. He has a little bit of that Ichiro feel to him, where if he wanted to hit for more power, he would, and he did crack 23 homers in 142 games in 2022, so it’s not like he’s been some light hitter in his career. It’s also possible he runs a lot more with the new stolen base rules in MLB. It might take him a couple years to get fully acclimated like it has Ha-Seong Kim, but once he does, a .300/15/15 season looks well within reach, and it wouldn’t shock me if he got to 20/20. He might be more valuable in real life than fantasy, but that doesn’t mean he still can’t be a very good fantasy player. 2024 Projection: 81/11/51/.285/.341/.401/12 Prime Projection: 93/15/62/.305/.371/.437/15

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
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Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Top 100 Prospects Rankings for 2024 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues (Patreon)

I actually went 144 prospects deep because here at Imaginary Brick Wall we break the mold. I would value everyone on this list as a “Top 100 Prospect,” because the deeper you get into prospect lists, the more the values even out. The top 21 are free here on the Brick Wall. Analysis and prime projections for every player. The full Top 500+ prospect list will drop the first of February on the Patreon, along with the Top 1000 Dynasty Rankings. Here is the Top 100 Prospects Rankings for 2024 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues (Patreon):

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-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST

1) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 20.1 – Baseball now uses minor leaguers like guinea pigs, testing out every hairbrained idea they have all willy nilly, and Chourio got caught in the crosshairs of it. The Southern League used a pre-tacked ball for the first half of the season, and Chourio put up a lowly .714 OPS in 71 games. When they went back to the regular ball, he immediately went gangbusters, slashing .324/.379/.538 with 11 homers, 21 steals, and a 13.4%/8.0% K%/BB% in 57 games. He closed out the season at Triple-A where he put up a 4.2%/8.3% K%/BB% in 6 games. He did all of this as a 19 year old. The power/speed combo is plus to double plus, and it sure looks like his contact rates are entering the elite range if you ignore what he did in the 1st half. Jackson Holliday seems to be the consensus #1 prospect in the game (and Wyatt Langford is the trendy #1 for fantasy), but if Chourio hit with the regular ball all season, I’m not so sure that would be the case. The main thing Holliday has over Chourio right now is plate approach, which makes him the safer prospect, but for fantasy, I gotta give the ever so slight edge to the power/speed combo. Milwaukee showed us they are all in by signing him to an 8 year, $82 million contract. It makes it much more likely that he will break camp with the team, and even if doesn’t, it won’t be long until he’s up for good. Chourio is my #1 fantasy prospect. 2024 Projection: 69/21/75/.258/.320/.469/25 Prime Projection: 101/32/104/.283/.353/.523/41

2) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 20.4 – Holliday’s power/speed combo really wasn’t that huge with only 12 homers and 24 steals (in 33 attempts) in 125 games spread across 4 levels (A, A+, AA, AAA). It dropped off even further in the upper minors with 5 homers and 4 steals in 54 games. It seems crazy to start his blurb off with criticism, but when the battle for the top prospect in the game is so close, it needs to be highlighted. Now that we got that out of the way, Holliday had an absolutely insane season where he slashed .323/.442/.499 with a 20.3%/17.4% K%/BB%. He was in high school last year, and he displayed one of the most advanced plate approaches of any prospect all the way through Triple-A. This is why everyone drools over kids with baseball bloodlines, they tend to be far advanced beyond their years. As I mentioned, the power isn’t fully developed yet with relatively low flyball rates, but he hits the ball hard with a 30.2% Hard Hit% and a 90.9 MPH EV in 40 batted balls at Triple-A, so I’m not concerned about the power long term. He has the safety edge over Chourio, but it’s not like Chourio is a risky prospect, so Holliday slots in at #2 for me. 2024 Projection: 78/16/71/.270/.339/.441/20 Prime Projection: 117/27/94/.296/.382/.506/28

3) Wyatt Langford TEX, OF, 22.5 – I have Chourio, Holliday, and Langford in a tier of their own. The only reason Langford is 3rd is because Chourio/Holliday have a longer professional track record and more impressive age to level production. But his power, speed, hit tool, plate approach, and production can rival anyone’s. He was selected 4th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft on the back of elite production in the SEC, slashing .373/.498/.784 with 21 homers, 9 steals, and a 44/56 K/BB in 64 games. He clearly separated himself from Dylan Crews in his pro debut, slashing .360/.480/.677 with 10 homers, 12 steals, and a 17.0%/18.0% K%/BB% in 44 games, and he was equally as dominant in the upper minors as he was the lower minors. He’s the total package, and if you wanted to rank him 1st overall, I wouldn’t argue with you. 2024 Projection: 81/26/77/.262/.338/.479/18 Prime Projection: 103/34/109/.277/.364/.535/24

4) Junior Caminero TBR, 3B/SS, 20.9 – Caminero was a popular breakout pick this year (me included), and he more than lived up to the consensus hype by going full phenom beast mode. He made a mockery of High-A pitching with 11 homers and a 190 wRC+ in 36 games, and then he barely slowed down at Double-A with 20 homers and a 140 wRC+ in 81 games. He even improved his plate approach at Double-A with a 17.1%/9.1% K%/BB% (25.2%/6.3% at High-A). He completed the phenom cycle by jumping straight from Double-A to the majors as a 20 year old for a cup of coffee (he ordered the cold brew with a .631 OPS in 36 PA, but it obviously doesn’t mean much). His calling card is double plus power with a good feel to hit that reminds me of a righty version of Rafael Devers. And while he didn’t run a ton (5 for 10 on the bases), he put up a 28.6 ft/sec sprint speed in the majors, so he’ll certainly contribute in the category at the least. Tampa Bay is forever crowded, but a player like Caminero forces the issue. 2024 Projection: 57/20/64/.260/.323/.462/6 Prime Projection: 96/35/109/.284/.349/.525/10

5) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 21.7 – The only question is how much power will Carter get to, because the plate approach and speed are impregnable at this point. He’s a line drive hitter who didn’t exactly smash the ball in the minors, although a 89/95.8 MPH AVG/FB EV in his 75 PA MLB debut shows he’s not some light hitting weakling. He’s also 6’4”, 190 pounds and only 21 years old, so more raw power is certainly coming. He hit 12 homers in 105 games at mostly Double-A (133 wRC+), then he set the baseball world on fire by hitting 5 homers in his first 23 games in the majors (180 wRC+), and finally he closed out the year with 1 homer in 17 playoff games (155 wRC+). That’s 18 homers in 145 games. If he can just get to about 25 homers in his prime, the man is going to be a terror. The speed is double plus with a 29.5 ft/sec sprint speed (31 steals overall), and the plate approach is elite. He had a 9% chase% in his MLB debut and he’s been an elite plate approach guy his entire career in the minors. He struggles vs. lefties, but just like with Gunnar Henderson last year, I wouldn’t let that scare you off an elite prospect. The downside is a .260 hitter with 15 homers and 25 steals, which isn’t that bad, and the upside is a .280/25/35 guy. 2024 Projection: 87/18/72/.263/.334/.429/26 Prime Projection: 105/24/80/.278/.367/.468/31

6) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 21.8 – I would completely ignore what Lawlar did in his super small sample, 34 PA MLB debut. Don’t even look at his Statcast page, it will only get in your head. Your focus should be on the pitchers he laid waste to in the upper minors. He slashed .278/.378/.496 with 20 homers, 36 steals, and a 20.6%/11.4% K%/BB% in 105 games at Double-A and Triple-A. His contact rates took a big step forward from 2022, he has truly elite speed with a 30.1 ft/sec sprint speed, and he hit the ball fairly hard, especially for a 20 year old, with a 31.8% Hard Hit%. He’s 6’2”, 190 pounds with room to add more muscle, so the power is only going up from here. He has legitimate Top 10 dynasty asset potential. 2024 Projection: 69/14/55/.248/.317/.410/25 Prime Projection: 103/24/84/.273/.351/.470/38

7) Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD, RHP, 25.7 – When it comes to potentially elite, all category hitting prospects, you have to pry them from my cold dead hands, which is why I would struggle to give up any of the hitting prospects ranked above for Yamamoto (or even the few ranked after him depending on my team build). In fantasy, pitchers can’t contribute in every pitching category (saves at least, and some leagues have both saves and holds), so that right there limits their upside relative to an elite hitter. Not to mention the much much much higher injury risk which can knock out 2 years of their career off a single injury, and then the stress of whether or not they will get back to 100%. On a real life list, I can see ranking Yamamoto 1st overall, but for fantasy, it’s just not how I play the game, even for a pitcher that is expected to be as good as Yamamoto. The Dodgers made him the highest paid pitcher in history with a 12 year, $325 million contract (plus a $50 million posting fee). That is really all you need to know. He’s expected to be a true ace right from the get go, and signing with the best developmental team in the game also takes a lot of the risk out of his transition to a new ball, new country, new league etc … He’s been a true ace in Japan for years now, and that continued this year with a pitching line of 1.16/0.86/176/28 in 171 IP. He pitched 193 innings in both 2021 and 2022, so there also isn’t any concern of how many innings he can pitch. The fastball sits mid 90’s and regularly hits the upper 90’s. A nasty splitter is his most used secondary, and he also throws a very good curve, 2-seamer, and cutter. He has elite command over all of his pitches, and he has an unique, oddly athletic delivery which he varies constantly to mess with hitters timing. He’s a straight up nightmare to face, and looks like a ready made ace. 2024 Projection: 14/3.42/1.11/195 in 180 IP

8) Noelvi Marte CIN, 3B, 22.6 – Everyone called Marte fat and slow this off-season, so of course he put up double plus run times in the majors with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed. Be super wary of scouting speed grades as they are wildly inaccurate (see also, Henry Davis and Nolan Jones). Not only is he a speedster, but he crushed the ball with a 91.3 MPH EV, and the hit tool looked good with a 20.3% K% and .296 xBA in 123 MLB PA. It all resulted in a slash line of .316/.366/.456 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 20.3%/6.5% K%/BB%. He showed those same skills in the upper minors with 11 homers, 18 steals, and a .279 BA in 92 games. He did all of this as a 21-year-old. He’s fast, he hits it hard, he gets the bat on the ball, he produced in the upper minors, he produced in the majors, and he was super young. Quite simply, this is an elite fantasy prospect, and I’m not sure he gets the respect he deserves. 2024 Projection: 77/19/73/.261/.322/.431/22 Prime Projection: 96/27/91/.276/.354/.491/25

9) Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 22.1 – Starting this blurb with anything other than the 73 wRC+ and 0 homers Crews put up in 85 PA at Double-A would be beating around the bush, and you know me, I don’t beat around the bush. The performance was bad enough to have Wyatt Langford clearly pass him for the top spot in my Top 130 2024 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (Wyatt’s dominance also had something to do with that), and also for me to prefer the newly minted highest paid pitcher in baseball history (Yamamoto), but that is where it ends. 85 PA isn’t enough to sour me on the 2nd overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. Crews is built like a solid rock at 6’0”, 203 pounds, and he swings the bat so fast and powerfully it almost looks like he’s using an illegally light bat (he’s not, at least I don’t think he is ha). The ball explodes off it on contact. He obliterated the SEC from the second he stepped on campus as a freshman, and he kept on improving through his junior year, slashing .380/.498/.689 with 58 homers, 23 steals, and a 146/152 K/BB in 196 career games. He also destroyed the lower minors with a 192 wRC+ in 71 PA at Single-A. His floor feels like a 30+ homer bat without the best BA or tons of steals, but the ceiling is that of a truly elite dynasty player. 2024 Projection: 62/20/71/.257/.329/.473/12 Prime Projection: 94/32/103/.274/.361/.518/16

10) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 21.2 – The backlash to Dominguez’ early career hype made it hard to hold the line, but I remained all in on Dominguez last off-season, ranking him 10th overall, and he more than delivered on that ranking this year. He hit 15 homers with 37 steals and a 25.6%/15.2% K%/BB% in 109 games at Double-A as a 20 year old. Then he quickly ran through Triple-A with a 180 wRC+ in 9 games, before finishing out his season with 4 homers and a 162 wRC+ in 8 games in the majors. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery put a halt to what was sure to be insane hype this off-season, but I wouldn’t let the Tommy John surgery scare you off. It isn’t as big of a deal for hitters as it is for pitchers, and he’s expected to return by the 2nd half of 2024. His extremely good MLB debut will likely make it hard to get good value for him this off-season even with the surgery, so my move would be to hope he needs to shake off some rust when he returns next season to bring his value into a more reasonable range again. 2024 Projection: 30/8/26/.242/.324/.438/10 Prime Projection: 92/26/86/.266/.361/.485/28

11) James Wood WAS, OF, 21.7 – The K% jumped to 33.7% in 87 games at Double-A, which is exactly what you are worried about with a player this tall (6’6”), but Wood is the type of unicorn athlete where you don’t want to let it scare you off him. He still cracked 18 homers with 10 steals and a 124 wRC+ at the level as a 20 year old. And that was coming off a 155 wRC+ in 42 games at the more age appropriate High-A. Despite his size and high strikeout rate, Wood has a relatively short and quick swing which gives hope he’ll be able to keep the strikeout rate in a range that allows his truly elite talent shine. Don’t expect a high BA, but expect him to kill it everywhere else. 2024 Projection: 45/17/51/.229/.308/.450/13 Prime Projection: 91/30/99/.253/.341/.508/18

12) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 22.0 – I’ve been all in on Pete Crow since before he was drafted, and he finally fulfilled his elite prospect destiny in 2023. The power took yet another step forward with him jacking 20 homers in 107 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s not an EV masher, but he doesn’t hit the ball weakly either, and his high launch will ensure he gets the most out of his still growing raw power. The CF defense and speed are elite with a 29.9 ft/sec sprint speed and 37 steals. There is bit more swing and miss than optimal with a 26% K%, but he’s always generally had a good feel to hit, and he’s never had low BA’s in the minors, so I’m not overly concerned about it. Armstrong has 20/40 written all over him. 2024 Projection: 41/9/29/.241/.310/.407/19 Prime Projection: 91/22/76/.257/.334/.439/34

13) Walker Jenkins MIN, OF, 19.1 – Selected 5th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, the 6’3”, 215 pounds Jenkins has that sweet lefty swing that just oozes offensive potential. It’s athletic, quick, under control, powerful, smooth … I can go on and on. It’s hard to watch this guy hit and not completely fall in love. It has the potential for at least plus hit and plus power at peak, and he’s also a good athlete with above average run times. But we don’t have to only dream on the potential, as Jenkins’ showed it to us clear as day in his pro debut, slashing .362/.417/.571 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 12.2%/7.8% K%/BB% in 26 games split evenly between rookie ball (138 wRC+) and Single-A (182 wRC+). It’s the type of profile that can be an elite dynasty asset a la Kyle Tucker. Langford, Crews, and Yamamoto are locked in as my top 3 FYPD picks, and while there are good arguments for Skenes or even Matt Shaw at #4, I don’t think I can pass up on the truly “generational” (or maybe nearly generational would be more accurate ha) upside of Jenkins. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 94/31/102/.273/.345/.510/16

14) Roman Anthony BOS, OF, 19.11 – I ended Anthony’s 2023 Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “There is a lot of refinement needed, but this is a high upside bat who could explode up rankings if everything comes together.” … well, everything came together and Anthony exploded up rankings, slashing .272/.403/.466 with 14 homers, 16 steals, and a 24.2%/17.5% K%/BB% in 106 games at mostly Single-A (109 wRC+) and High-A (164 wRC+). It was a little concerning that the K% jumped to 30.6% at High-A, but then he closed out the season at Double-A and had a 185 wRC+ with a 13.6%/18.2% K%/BB% in 10 games. And he did all this starting the season as an 18 year old. He’s an elite athlete at 6’2”, 200 pounds with a plus power/speed combo, powerful lefty swing, and a mature plate approach. The only things preventing him from being ranked even higher is that he’s not great at lifting the ball with an under 25% Flyball%, and he wasn’t a great base stealer with 16 steals in 23 attempts. He hits the ball so hard he can survive without a huge launch, and he has time to refine his base stealing skills as well, so neither are major concerns. He’s on a short list to be the #1 overall fantasy prospect in baseball by this time next year. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 96/25/88/.273/.358/.472/16

15) Jackson Jobe DET, RHP, 21.9 – Jobe made his season debut in mid June from lumber spine inflammation, which obviously sounded worse than it really was, because he immediately looked like the best pitching prospect in baseball when he returned. He had a 2.81 ERA with a 32.6%/2.3% K%/BB% in 64 IP at mostly High-A. He closed the season out with a gem at Double-A, going 6 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER, and a 6/0 K/BB, and then he went to the AFL and dominated in that extreme hitter’s environment with a 2.87 ERA and 19/5 K/BB in 15.2 IP. He looks absolutely electric on the mound at 6’2”, 190 pounds with an athletic delivery and a double plus 4 pitch mix. He was known for his high spin slider coming into the draft, and the pitch is so filthy it almost doesn’t look real. His changeup dominated as well with nasty tailing diving action, the fastball sits mid 90’s with excellent movement, and the cutter is a high spin pitch that misses bats. And he does all of this with pinpoint control. He still has to prove it in the upper minors, which I’m not too concerned about, and he has to prove he can stay healthy and maintain his stuff with a full MLB starters workload, which is more concerning, but that’s just the pitching prospect game. He’s my #1 pitching prospect in baseball, non Yoshinobu Yamamoto division. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 15/3.18/1.03/220 in 180 IP

16) Paul Skenes PIT, RHP, 21.10 – Selected 1st overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Skenes’ season was nothing short of jaw dropping with a pitching line of 1.69/0.75/209/20 in 122.2 IP in the SEC. His fastball sits in the upper 90’s and routinely hits over 100 MPH. His slider is elite, and while he didn’t go to his changeup as much, that pitch is also nasty. He also displayed plus control of his entire arsenal. He’s 6’6”, 235 pounds with a relatively athletic delivery and he’s a good athlete in general as evidenced by the fact he is also an excellent hitter. He had a career 1.121 OPS in 119 games in the Mountain West before transferring into the SEC. There were some whispers about poor fastball shape in his 6.2 IP pro debut, but I wouldn’t let that sour you on a generational type pitching prospect. He’ll still be just 21 years old on Opening Day, so plenty of refinement, tinkering, new pitches etc … are coming down the road. 2024 Projection: 8/3.80/1.27/133 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.28/1.06/237 in 190 IP

17) Matt Shaw CHC, 2B/SS, 22.5 – Selected 13th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Shaw is only 5’11”, but he’s a thick dude who has real power, and he combines that with above average speed and excellent base stealing skills. He has that little man leg kick (which Chicago toned down a hair in pro ball) that I absolutely love in the mold of a Alex Bregman, Spencer Steer, and Zach Neto. It seems to be working for these slightly undersized guys, and it’s certainly working for Shaw. He smashed 24 homers with 18 steals and a 1.142 OPS in 62 Big Ten games. He also impressed in the wood bat Cape Cod League with 5 homers, 21 steals, and a 1.006 OPS in 36 games. He then ran through pro ball like it was nothing, finishing the year at Double-A slashing .292/.329/.523 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 17.1%/4.3% K%/BB% in 15 games at the level. Shaw was my top draft target pre-draft (I actually pointed out Shaw as my top target back in February before the season even started), but now that he absolutely blew up in pro ball, there is no chance you get a great value on him. He’s worth his very high draft price though. 2024 Projection: 36/10/43/.253/.312/.432/11 Prime Projection: 85/25/89/.271/.337/.469/21

18) Ricky Tiedemann TOR, LHP, 21.7 – Tiedemann’s dominance in the AFL quieted some of the risk that was growing after an injured and mixed bag season in 2023. He had a 2.50 ERA with a 23/8 K/BB in 18 IP. He went 5 IP in 3 of the 4 starts after not reaching 5 IP the entire season. The stuff is elite with a mid 90’s fastball and two plus secondaries in his slider and changeup. He also looks the part at 6’4”, 220 pounds with an almost sidearm lefty delivery. If he stays healthy and throws the ball over the plate, he’ll be an easy ace, but those are the two areas that can trip him up. He pitched only 62 innings all year, including the AFL, because of a biceps injury that kept him out for almost 3 months. It will probably take 3 years to truly build up his innings fully, and we all know the injury risk with young flamethrowers like this. His 12% BB% is also nearing the danger zone where inconsistency can end up a part of the profile. The profile isn’t without risk, but when dealing in upside prospect flamethrowers, that is just the game. He’s an elite pitching prospect. 2024 Projection: 5/3.81/1.31/111 in 100 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.38/1.19/213 in 170 IP

19) Parker Meadows DET, OF, 24.5 – I know this ranking seems high, but Meadows is looking mighty similar to my Nolan Jones and Zack Gelof buy calls from mid-season, and if you look at redraft and dynasty rankings this off-season, those guys now get valued in the range that elite prospects get ranked, or even higher. Meadows has the potential to make that same jump from afterthought prospect to highly valued dynasty asset, and you should get in this off-season before it happens. He has a very fantasy friendly skillset with the build and athleticism to back it up, but he always got vastly underrated on prospect lists. And unlike Jones and Gelof who have played far too well to still be underrated this off-season, Meadows is setting up to be in perfect buy territory with a .699 OPS in 37 games. He had a 89.3 MPH EV, 18.3 degree launch, 29 ft/sec sprint, 24% whiff%, and 11.7% BB%. And to top it all off, his at least above average CF defense should keep him in the lineup. That is a recipe for tons of fantasy goodness, and you might be able to acquire him for barely anything this off-season. His 293 NFBC ADP shows his perceived value to fantasy upside could be as wide as anyone’s right now. He’s a major target. 2024 Projection: 79/23/76/.248/.328/.432/24

20) Colt Keith DET, 3B/2B, 22.8 – Keith more than hinted at a big breakout in 2022 with a 150 wRC+ in 48 games at High-A, but a shoulder injury cut the explosion short, and even though he made it back to dominate the AFL (1.004 OPS in 19 games), the hype was still relatively subdued last off-season. Well, the explosion continued right into 2023, and this time he did it in the upper minors with a 163 wRC+ and 14 homers in 59 games at Double-A, followed up by a 119 wRC+ and 13 homers in 67 games at Triple-A. He hits the ball very hard, he has a mature plate approach, and the hit tool is at least above average. He’s one of the most complete prospect hitters in the game, and he should break camp with the team in 2024. 2024 Projection: 74/24/81/.258/.329/.445/2 Prime Projection: 89/29/92/.276/.352/.480/3

21) Coby Mayo BAL, 1B/3B, 22.4 – My boldest prediction in last off-season’s Predicting the 2024 Top 50 Prospects Rankings was that Coby Mayo would explode to a Top 10 prospect, predicting that “Mayo will follow in Gunnar Henderson’s footsteps with an off the charts type season in the upper minors. He’ll put up a 150 wRC+ at Double-A and a 130 wRC+ at Triple-A. The K% will be under 25%, the power will be huge, and there will be some surprising speed too.” … Mayo put up a 178 wRC+ in 78 games at Double-A and a 127 wRC+ in 62 games at Triple-A. The power was huge with 29 homers in 140 games, and the K% was under 25% at 24.1%. I don’t think I could have nailed that more even if I was actually able to see into the future. The surprising speed didn’t really show up with only 5 steals, but better than nothing. The 6’5”, 230 pound Mayo is now a truly elite power hitting prospect, just as I expected. 2024 Projection: 31/11/35/.242/.319/.455/2 Prime Projection: 86/34/99/.265/.346/.535/6

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 275 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B–Top 161 SS
-TOP 130 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
–FYPD TARGET & STRATEGY GUIDE
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Patreon: Top 130 2024 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings

It’s First Year Player Draft Week over on the Patreon, and we kick it off with the Top 131 2024 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings. Top 13 are free here on the Brick Wall. Analysis and Prime Projections for every player. The FYPD Target and Strategy Guide is coming tomorrow. Here is the Top 130 2024 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 275 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B–Top 161 SS
-TOP 130 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Arizona Diamondbacks–Baltimore Orioles (free)–Boston Red Sox (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Los Angeles Dodgers (free)–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Oakland Athletics–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–St. Louis Cardinals (free)–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

1) Wyatt Langford TEX, OF, 22.5 – I know that taking the ready made ace in Yamamoto is extremely enticing, but there is no better asset in dynasty baseball than the young, impact all category beast, and Langford has a very good chance to become that. Building your team around a young pitcher is so much more risky. Just look at Ohtani who already had 2 major elbow surgeries that will knock out 3 of his 7 MLB seasons, but he’s been able to hit like a beast through it all. Unlike Ohtani, Yamamoto doesn’t hit. Langford was selected 4th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft on the back of elite production in the SEC, slashing .373/.498/.784 with 21 homers, 9 steals, and a 44/56 K/BB in 64 games. He clearly separated himself from Dylan Crews in his pro debut, slashing .360/.480/.677 with 10 homers, 12 steals, and a 17.0%/18.0% K%/BB% in 44 games, and he was equally as dominant in the upper minors as he was the lower minors. He’s the total package. I have Chourio, Holliday, and Langford in a tier of their own atop my Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings. The only reason Langford is 3rd is because Chourio/Holliday have a longer professional track record and more impressive age to level production. But his power, speed, hit tool, plate approach, and production can rival anyone’s, and if you wanted to rank him 1st overall on prospects rankings, I wouldn’t argue with you. 2024 Projection: 81/26/77/.262/.338/.479/16 Prime Projection: 103/34/109/.277/.364/.535/20

2) Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD, RHP, 25.7 – The Dodgers made Yamamoto the highest paid pitcher in history with a 12 year, $325 million contract (plus a $50 million posting fee). That is really all you need to know. He’s expected to be a true ace right from the get go, and signing with the best developmental team in the game also takes a lot of the risk out of his transition to a new ball, new country, new league etc … He’s been a true ace in Japan for years now, and that continued this year with a pitching line of 1.16/0.86/176/28 in 171 IP. He pitched 193 innings in both 2021 and 2022, so there also isn’t any concern of how many innings he can pitch. The fastball sits mid 90’s and regularly hits the upper 90’s. A nasty splitter is his most used secondary, and he also throws a very good curve, 2-seamer, and cutter. He has elite command over all of his pitches, and he has an unique, oddly athletic delivery which he varies constantly to mess with hitters timing. He’s a straight up nightmare to face, and looks like a ready made ace. 2024 Projection: 14/3.42/1.11/195 in 180 IP

3) Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 22.1 – Starting this blurb with anything other than the 73 wRC+ and 0 homers Crews put up in 85 PA at Double-A would be beating around the bush, and you know me, I don’t beat around the bush. The performance was bad enough to have Wyatt Langford clearly pass him for the top spot in first year players drafts (Wyatt’s dominance also had something to do with that), and also for me to prefer the newly minted highest paid pitcher in baseball history (Yamamoto), but that is where it ends. 85 PA isn’t enough to sour me on the 2nd overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. Crews is built like a solid rock at 6’0”, 203 pounds, and he swings the bat so fast and powerfully it almost looks like he’s using an illegally light bat (he’s not, at least I don’t think he is ha). The ball explodes off it on contact. He obliterated the SEC from the second he stepped on campus as a freshman, and he kept on improving through his junior year, slashing .380/.498/.689 with 58 homers, 23 steals, and a 146/152 K/BB in 196 career games. He also destroyed the lower minors with a 192 wRC+ in 71 PA at Single-A. His floor feels like a 30+ homer bat without the best BA or tons of steals, but the ceiling is that of a truly elite dynasty player. 2024 Projection: 62/20/71/.257/.329/.473/12 Prime Projection: 94/32/103/.274/.361/.518/16

4) Walker Jenkins MIN, OF, 19.1 – Selected 5th overall, the 6’3”, 215 pounds Jenkins has that sweet lefty swing that just oozes offensive potential. It’s athletic, quick, under control, powerful, smooth … I can go on and on. It’s hard to watch this guy hit and not completely fall in love. It has the potential for at least plus hit and plus power at peak, and he’s also a good athlete with above average run times. But we don’t have to only dream on the potential, as Jenkins’ showed it to us clear as day in his pro debut, slashing .362/.417/.571 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 12.2%/7.8% K%/BB% in 26 games split evenly between rookie ball (138 wRC+) and Single-A (182 wRC+). It’s the type of profile that can be an elite dynasty asset a la Kyle Tucker. Langford, Yamamoto, and Crews are locked in as my top 3 FYPD picks, and while there are good arguments for Skenes or even Matt Shaw at #4, I don’t think I can pass up on the truly “generational” (or maybe nearly generational would be more accurate) upside of Jenkins. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 94/31/102/.273/.345/.510/16

5) Paul Skenes PIT, RHP, 21.10 – Selected 1st overall, Skenes’ season was nothing short of jaw dropping with a pitching line of 1.69/0.75/209/20 in 122.2 IP in the SEC. His fastball sits in the upper 90’s and routinely hits over 100 MPH. His slider is elite, and while he didn’t go to his changeup as much, that pitch is also nasty. He also displayed plus control of his entire arsenal. He’s 6’6”, 235 pounds with a relatively athletic delivery and he’s a good athlete in general as evidenced by the fact he is also an excellent hitter. He had a career 1.121 OPS in 119 games in the Mountain West before transferring into the SEC. There were some whispers about poor fastball shape in his 6.2 IP pro debut, but I wouldn’t let that sour you on a generational type pitching prospect. He’ll still be just 21 years old on Opening Day, so plenty of refinement, tinkering, new pitches etc … are coming down the road. 2024 Projection: 8/3.80/1.27/133 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.28/1.06/237 in 190 IP

6) Matt Shaw CHC, 2B/SS, 22.5 – Selected 13th overall, Shaw is only 5’11”, but he’s a thick dude who has real power, and he combines that with above average speed and excellent base stealing skills. He has that little man leg kick (which Chicago toned down a hair in pro ball) that I absolutely love in the mold of a Alex Bregman, Spencer Steer, and Zach Neto. It seems to be working for these slightly undersized guys, and it’s certainly working for Shaw. He smashed 24 homers with 18 steals and a 1.142 OPS in 62 Big Ten games. He also impressed in the wood bat Cape Cod League with 5 homers, 21 steals, and a 1.006 OPS in 36 games. He then ran through pro ball like it was nothing, finishing the year at Double-A slashing .292/.329/.523 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 17.1%/4.3% K%/BB% in 15 games at the level. Shaw was my top draft target pre-draft (I actually pointed out Shaw as my top target back in February before the season even started), but now that he absolutely blew up in pro ball, there is no chance you get great value on him. He’s worth his very high draft price though. 2024 Projection: 36/10/43/.253/.312/.432/11 Prime Projection: 85/25/89/.271/.337/.469/21

7) Max Clark DET, OF, 19.4 –  Clark is the 2023 draft version of Pete Crow Armstrong and Corbin Carroll, two guys who I was the high man on in their first year player draft class, although Clark actually got the respect he deserved by getting selected 3rd overall. Maybe the success of those aforementioned players paved the way for a guy like Clark to get valued correctly. As you can tell from the comps, double plus speed with a plus hit tool and developing power is what you are buying. He’s a pretty thick and muscular 6’1”, 190 pounds, so I don’t think you have to squint too hard to see legitimate power developing down the line, even if he’s more a line drive hitter currently. After dominating rookie ball with a 146 wRC+ in 12 games, he got slowed down a bit at Single-A with a 73 wRC+ and 29.4% K% in 11 games, but he still had a .353 OBP, so it’s not like he was completely overmatched or anything. 5×5 BA leagues are going to be his bread and butter, but like Carroll, he can be a beast regardless of league type. He has elite dynasty asset upside. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 93/18/72/.278/.347/.433/33

8) Colt Emerson SEA, SS, 18.8 – Selected 22nd overall, the 6’1”, 195 pound Emerson had an electric pro debut, both statistically and visually. He slashed .374/.496/.550 with 2 homers, 8 steals, and a 17.5%/14.9% K%/BB% in 24 games at rookie ball (251 wRC+) and Single-A (147 wRC+). He has an athletic, lightning quick lefty swing that the ball absolutely rockets off of. It’s geared for both power and average. He’s not a true burner, but he has speed and he was perfect on the bases. He’ll also be 18 years old for most of the 2024 season. He checks off almost every box that you look for in a potential elite prospect coming out of the draft (size, power, average, speed, age, sweet swing, production). If you’re drafting in the mid to late 1st round, and all the buzzy names are off the board, you can confidently take Emerson knowing he can easily end up amongst the best in the class. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 93/26/86/.277/.356/.475/15

9) Jung Hoo Lee SFG, OF, 25.7 – San Francisco signed Lee to a 6 year, $113 million contract, which is definitely an eye opening amount, but he earned that contract for his real life baseball value, and not for his fantasy value. He had extremely high groundball rates in Korea with a 59.2% GB% in 2023, and he doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard. He hit only 6 homers in 86 games. He has speed, but he’s not a true burner, and he hasn’t been a good base stealer. He was 6 for 9 in 2023 and has a career high of 13 steals in 20 attempts. He also fractured his ankle in July which required season ending surgery, so that adds even more risk to his future steal projections. And to top it all off, he landed in one of the very worst hitter’s parks in the league. He’s truly elite at what he does well though, and that is hit for average. He had a 5.9%/12.7% K%/BB% in 2023, and he has a career .340 BA. He was a baseball prodigy with baseball bloodlines, dominating the KBO from the time he was 18 years old with a sweet lefty swing. He’s not a small guy at 6’0”, and there is most certainly room to tack on mass at a relatively skinny 171 pounds. He has a little bit of that Ichiro feel to him, where if he wanted to hit for more power, he would, and he did crack 23 homers in 142 games in 2022, so it’s not like he’s been some light hitter in his career. It’s also possible he runs a lot more with the new stolen base rules in MLB. It might take him a couple years to get fully acclimated like it has Ha-Seong Kim, but once he does, a .300/15/15 season looks well within reach, and it wouldn’t shock me if he got to 20/20. He might be more valuable in real life than fantasy, but that doesn’t mean he still can’t be a very good fantasy player. 2024 Projection: 81/11/51/.285/.341/.401/12 Prime Projection: 93/15/62/.305/.371/.437/15

10) Tommy Troy ARI, 3B/2B, 21.8 – Selected 12th overall, the first thing that pops out when watching Troy is his absolute vicious bat speed and rotation. It’s controlled violence at it’s finest. He used that explosive swing to have a monster junior year, slashing .394/.478/.699 with 17 homers, 17 steals, and a 42/35 K/BB in 58 Pac12 games. He’s not a huge tools guy at 5’10”, 197 pounds, so the power/speed combo might not be huge on the Major League level, but he at least proved it will transfer to wood bats in pro ball, slashing .247/.343/.447 with 4 homers, 8 steals, and a 26.3%/12.1% K%/BB% in 23 games at High-A. His hit tool is good, but there is still some swing and miss in his game which popped up in his pro debut. There is definitely a chance the upside might not end up being very high, but he does a lot of things well, and like I highlighted above, the swing is truly impressive to me. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 82/20/76/.255/.330/.441/20

11) Brock Wilken MIL, 3B, 21.10 – Selected 18th overall, the 6’4”, 225 pound Wilken is almost the exact definition of a lurking slugger. He quite literally lurks over the plate with an eerily calm and foreboding batting stance which he used to unleash 31 homers in 66 ACC games. He then stepped right into pro ball and raked with a .887 OPS in 47 games split between rookie, High-A, and Double-A. He has the huge EV’s to back up the power. The hit tool and plate approach made big jumps this year with a .345 BA and 58/69 K/BB in college, but he still isn’t expected to hit for much average, and a 36% K% in 6 games at Double-A hints at the hit tool risk. You are buying the monster power here. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/31/87/.247/.332/.495/3

12) Leodalis De Vries SDP, SS, 17.6 – Last year in the Felnin Celesten blurb, I wrote, “Considering the last couple international classes haven’t really popped, Celesten could come at a very reasonable price in 2023 First Year Player Drafts. This could be the year to dive back into this market.” … obviously Celesten didn’t have the opportunity to pop, but I nailed my observation that 2023 was the year to jump back into the international player pool market with Ethan Salas and Sebastian Walcott exploding (along with Joendry Vargas and others). But now that we are coming off that international prospect explosion, prices are going to be much higher this year. And that starts with the top player in the 2024 international class, Leodalis De Vries. He has almost everything you look for in a potentially elite prospect. He’s a switch hitter at projectable 6’2”, 175 pounds with an extremely quick, loose, and athletic swing. He’s known for his mature plate approach and good feel to hit, and there is certainly plus power potential in here at peak. He’s also an excellent athlete with above average speed. The plate skills give him as high of a floor as you can get for a 17 year old international prospect, and the upside is considerable as well. International prospects are definitely the most mysterious and risky class of prospect to shop in, but when they hit, they hit in a huge way. De Vries is worth taking on the risk. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 89/24/86/.276/.352/.462/18

13) Hurston Waldrep ATL, RHP, 22.1 – Pitcher’s don’t usually make big moves in either direction in their pro debut, but Waldrep bucked that trend. His double plus mid to upper 90’s fastball/splitter combo put up a 33.3% K% and 1.53 ERA in 29.1 IP spread across 4 levels (A, A+, AA, AAA). He also throws a curve and slider that both have plus potential. There is zero doubt about the strikeout ability with a 34.7% K% in 101.2 IP in the SEC in 2023 as well. The reason he only got selected 24th overall though, is that there is definitely some risk in his profile. The control is well below average with a 12.7% BB% at college and a 13.0% BB% in pro ball. He also had a mediocre college season with a 4.16 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, and the K/BB numbers weren’t quite as impressive in the upper minors with a 16/10 K/BB in 14.1 IP at Double-A and Triple-A. Ending up in Atlanta is a great landing spot as they know what they are doing when it comes to pitching, so I’m more apt to go after him now than I would have been if he went to a lesser organization. And if you go K chasing in fantasy, which I do, Waldrep is mighty enticing despite the risk. 2024 Projection: 3/4.13/1.35/75 in 70 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.71/1.28/185 in 165 IP

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Patreon Post: A Top 275 Sneak Peek of the 2024 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

Dynasty Baseball Rankings season is in full gear! The 2024 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings continues to get built out over on the Patreon with the Top 275. The Top 30 is free here on the Brick Wall. Analysis, projections, and prime projections for every player. Here is A Top 275 Sneak Peek of the 2024 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

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1) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 26.3 – Acuna went 40/70, but somehow the most mind blowing thing about his 2023 season is that he all of a sudden turned into an elite contact hitter with an 11.4% K% (23.6% in 2022). He also must have eaten his spinach this off-season, because the six foot Acuna Popeye’d the league with the type of exit velocity numbers usually reserved for giant human beings only. His 121.2 Max EV was the hardest hit ball all season. The next 6 leaders in that category were the 6’6” Giancarlo Stanton, the 6’5” Elly De La Cruz, the 6’4” Shohei Ohtani, the 6’5” Matt Olson, the 6’2” Jake Burger, and the 6’5” Yordan Alvarez. His 94.7 MPH AVG EV was bested only by the superhuman Aaron Judge (97.6 MPH). He got slower with a career worst 28 ft/sec sprint, but he still stole 73 bags. He hit the ball on the ground more than ever with a career high 49.5% GB%, but he still hit 41 bombs. He’s the undisputed #1 overall dynasty player. 2024 Projection: 132/37/103/.318/.398/.582/61

2) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS, 23.10 – Witt is Exhibit A on why you should be betting on Anthony Volpe and Jordan Walker in 2024. When an elite prospect shows all the ingredients of a future breakout in their rookie year, you need to be all over whatever small discount you can get them for. These are the type of breakouts that look so obvious in hindsight, you forget you ever doubted them in the first place. Witt raised his FB/LD EV from 92.6 MPH in 2022 to 94.4 MPH in 2023 and all hell broke loose with him cracking 30 dingers. He also lowered his K% by 4 percentage points to 17.4% and raised his BB% by 1.1 percentage points to 5.8%. The scary thing is that he was on the unlucky side too with a .343 wOBA vs. .373 xwOBA. There is another level to unlock here. His .904 2nd half OPS is probably what he has in store for us in 2024. 2024 Projection: 102/34/107/.283/.336/.522/47

3) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 23.7 – The 5’10” Carroll laughs at me for even hinting that the 6’0” Acuna isn’t big. Carroll truly had to deal with the little man discrimination his entire career, falling to a ridiculous 16th overall in the 2019 MLB Draft (I ranked him 3rd overall personally). He’s done nothing but prove the doubters wrong since then, culminating with a rookie season that immediately catapulted him to elite dynasty status. He smashed 25 homers with a 90 MPH EV. Nobody doubted his speed, and he didn’t disappoint with 54 steals and a 30.1 ft/sec sprint. The cherry on top is that he put up career best contact rates with a 19.4% K%, and that includes his entire minor league career going back to rookie ball. The only thing that could stop him is the major shoulder injury he suffered in 2021 which reared it’s ugly head again this July. He doubled over in pain after a swing and said, “I took a swing, and I felt a shift in my shoulder, shocking, tingling sensation go down my arm and then my hand go numb. I was just holding it thinking it came out of the socket, pretty much thought that the season was over.” It ended up being “minor,” but I’m not sure how you can’t at least have that in the back of your mind when ranking Carroll. He’s too good to be scared off by it, but my tolerance for injury risk might be higher than yours. 2024 Projection: 121/28/85/.288/.374/.496/52

4) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 23.3 – When Julio gets off to a slow start in 2024, remind yourself not to panic. 2023 was the 2nd year in a row where it took him a minute to hit his stride. He put up a mediocre .721 OPS in 87 games pre break before exploding in the 2nd half, slashing .308/.363/.578 with 19 homers and 15 steals in 68 games. He crushes the ball with a 92.7 MPH EV that led to 32 homers, and he’s lightning fast with a 29.6 ft/sec sprint that led to 37 steals. The only weakness he has that the guys ranked above him don’t have is a poor approach. His 37.4% chase rate is well below average and so is his 28.2% whiff%. I’m betting on the plate approach improving as he gains more experience, but the guys ranked above him are already further along. 2024 Projection: 104/33/105/.280/.341/.507/38

5) Shohei “(deferred) Money” Ohtani LAD, RHP/DH, 29.9 – First there were asterisks for juiced players. Then there were asterisks for juiced balls. And now there are asterisks for juiced contracts. The 700* million dollar man (*680 million of it deferred) tore the UCL in his right elbow in August and seems like he opted to go with an internal brace procedure rather than get his 2nd Tommy John surgery in 5 years. It’s still a serious surgery that will prevent him from pitching until 2025, but he’s expected to be good to go as hitter at the start of 2024. As we saw with Bryce Harper, the odds Ohtani will continue to be an elite hitter are very high, but we can’t be surprised if he doesn’t get back to prime form until the 2nd half. He was in the midst of the best offensive season of his career with career highs everywhere you look (EV, wOBA, xwOBA, K%, BB%, Hard Hit%), and his 180 wRC+ led the league by a good margin (Judge was 2nd at 174). I’m not concerned with Ohtani’s bat at all, but it’s fair to question his ability to stay healthy as a pitcher. His stuff is so good with a 96.8 MPH fastball that he could probably stand to lose a tick or two and still be near elite. He also strikes me as the type who will thrive in his old age with diminished velocity, so I’m far from writing him off as a pitcher, but I do believe you have to factor in the added risk. 2024 Projection: 96/33/94/.277/.380/.538/18

6) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, OF, 25.3 – Maybe it was the shoulder, maybe it was the wrist, or maybe it was the lack of PED’s, but it’s undeniable that Tatis had some of his upside shaved off the top in 2023. His barrel% was down 10.3 percentage points to 11%, his exit velocity was down 2 MPH to 91.9 MPH, his hard hit% was down 6.3 percentage points to 49.3%, and his xwOBA was down .039 to .368. He also wore down as the season went along with a .871 OPS in the 1st half versus a .665 OPS in the 2nd half. But take a look at all of those numbers. Even with him being considerably worse than his prime, he was still an elite fantasy player with 25 homers and 29 steals in 141 games. He missed all of 2022, he had to rehab both his shoulder and wrist surgeries over the off-season, and he also had to deal with so much controversy, whether it was self inflicted or not. He’ll actually be able to have a normal off-season going into 2024, and he’s still only 25 years old, which makes me think what he did in 2023 is his floor. And considering he also got unlucky (.332 wOBA vs. .368 xwOBA which is in the top 10% of the league), his floor is probably even higher than that. The decline in production takes him out of the conversation to be the #1 dynasty player overall, but this is still an easy Top 10 dynasty asset at the very least. 2024 Projection: 98/33/96/.274/.348/.515/31

7) Juan Soto NYY, OF, 25.6 – This is a contract year for Soto, and Scott Boras is his agent. He hasn’t really had that crazy career year yet. 2020 looked like it could have been that year with 13 homers and 202 wRC+ in 49 games, but it was a shortened season. What I’m trying to say is, the Baseball Gods owe him one, and his move from one of the very worst ballparks for lefty homers to one of the very best only adds fuel to that fire (I’m expecting him to start pulling the ball just a bit more). He doesn’t run enough with only 12 steals to truly be considered in the same tier as the guys ranked above him, but in any league that devalues speed, he is right there with them. He’s an OBP God with an 18.6% BB% and .410 OBP. It’s his 4th year in a row with more walks than strikeouts. His 6.7 degree launch is low, but he’s launch proof with a 98.7 MPH FB/LD EV that is 4th best in all of baseball. It led to a career high 35 homers. Everything seems to be setting up for Soto to have one of those silly statistical seasons that won’t even look real, and then he will land one of those silly contract numbers that won’t even look real. 2024 Projection: 115/38/115/.287/.422/.546/13

8) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 27.2 – Just call him the quiet killer because no elite player gets less hype than Kyle Tucker. He was one homer shy of going 30/30, and he did it while putting up career bests in both K% (13.6%) and BB% (11.9%). He has well below average speed with a bottom 33% sprint speed, but he once again proved stolen bases are not just about pure speed, there is a major skill component to it as well. Maybe it’s fitting he has the shortest blurb out of his elite dynasty brethren, because he’ll just continue to quietly kill your fantasy competition. No fanfare necessary. 2024 Projection: 99/30/115/.285/.365/.520/28

9) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 22.3 – Call me crazy, but I’m actually encouraged by Elly’s 33.7% K%, 29.7% whiff%, and .235 BA in his age 21 year old season in the major leagues. In last year’s Top 1,000 Rankings, I projected Elly’s 2023 triple slash would be .232/.294/.433, and it ended up being .235/.300/.410. Not bad if I don’t say so myself, but point being, this is exactly what you should have expected. He also had a 26.9%/14.0% K%/BB% in 38 games at Triple-A, which proves he is capable of making real improvements to his plate approach over time (30.9%/7.7% K%/BB% at Double-A in 2022). And his hit tool only needs to get to below average to be an absolute fantasy monster. The power is elite with a 91.2 MPH EV and 119.2 Max EV which was the 3rd highest mark in the league. It came with a 3.6 degree launch, but he has the type of power that is launch proof (13 homers in 98 games), and he’s never had any major groundball issues in the minors, so that number is only coming up. He also has elite speed with 35 steals and a 30.5 ft/sec sprint speed which was tied for the fastest man in baseball with Bobby Witt. I always say, “if you can’t take risks in fantasy, where can you take risks,” and I’m not even sure Elly is as risky as people think. I’m all in. 2024 Projection: 91/25/85/.244/.317/.452/52 Prime Projection: 103/33/109/.261/.337/.506/65

10) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 26.9 – The only two categories Yordan isn’t a beast in are games played and steals. He dealt with left hand soreness in March that delayed the start of his spring training, he missed about a week in April with a neck injury, and he missed almost 2 months in June and July with an oblique injury. It limited him to just 114 games. The surgeries he’s gotten on both of his knees are also still fresh in everyone’s mind, but the fact that none of his issues had to do with his knees is encouraging to me. He played in 135 games in 2022 and 144 games in 2021. I think it’s one year too early to really slap him with the injury prone tag. And he’s too elite to be too risk averse with a career .978 OPS and a .440 xwOBA in 2023, which was the 3rd best mark in the league behind only Judge and Acuna. I’m not getting too hung up on the injury risk quite yet. 2024 Projection: 94/37/111/.296/.403/.589/1

11) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 26.8 – While many were jumping ship after a down and injured 2022, I kept the faith by ranking Robert 30th overall, and he responded with the type of year we all knew he was capable of, slashing .264/.315/.542 with 38 homers, 20 steals, and a 28.9%/5.0% K%/BB% in 145 games. He laughed in the face of chase rate (40.5%) and chased his way to a career best 15.4% barrel%. His speed bounced back with a top 16% sprint speed, and he played in a career high 145 games. I wish I could say he is now completely out of the woods and we can trust him completely, but the injury black cloud always seems to be lurking. His season ended on September 24th with a sprained MCL in his knee which would have kept him out for up to a month if the season didn’t end a week later. He also dealt with hamstring, quad, calf, hip, and finger injuries throughout the season. Rostering Robert definitely feels like playing Press Your Luck, begging to avoid any whammies (no whammies, no whammies, no whammies, STOP). Robert is elite enough where you can’t live completely in fear of his next injury, but projecting him for a fully healthy season feels optimistic. 2024 Projection: 88/32/84/.268/.320/.528/19

12) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 31.11 – Judge’s 97.6 MPH EV is the highest average exit velocity in the history of Statcast. The only years Judge didn’t lead the league in average exit velocity was 2015 when he was in the minors, and 2020 during the shortened season. His .468 xwOBA not only led the league, and it wasn’t only a career high, it was the highest xwOBA amongst qualified hitters in history if you take out 2020 (Soto put up a .475 xwOBA that season in 49 games). And he did all of this while gutting it out in the 2nd half with a torn ligament in his big toe which knocked him out for almost 2 months in June and July. He isn’t expected to need surgery this off-season, which is a good sign, and he had a 1.066 OPS in September, so I’m inclined to not harp too much on the injury. 2024 Projection: 121/46/119/.283/.405/.594/9

13) Bryce Harper PHI, 1B, 31.6 – Harper was nice enough to leave zero doubt that his power will fully return to prime form in 2024 coming off Tommy John surgery. After hitting just 3 homers in first 58 games, he turned it around by launching 23 homers in his final 79 games, including the postseason. He returned way ahead of schedule anyway, so it’s not surprising he wasn’t fully healthy until the 2nd half. I would expect your typical elite Harper season in 2024, and he strikes me as the type of all time great that will be raking deep into his 30’s. 2024 Projection: 107/35/100/.289/.400/.540/14

Shadow13) Shohei Ohtani LAD, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 29.9 – This is where I would rank Ohtani in weekly leagues or as a hitter only. 2024 Projection: 96/33/94/.277/.380/.538/18

14) Mookie Betts LAD, 2B/OF, 31.6 – Betts played 70 games at 2B in 2023 and it was announced he will be LA’s starting 2B moving forward. He immediately becomes the best 2B in baseball. He is in the midst of a later career power surge, which makes up for his declining speed. After hitting a career high 35 homers in 2022, he topped that in 2023 by jacking out 39 dingers. His 92.4 MPH EV and 20.6 degree launch were both career highs, and his 48.5% Hard Hit% was the 2nd best mark of his career. As I mentioned, his speed is declining with a bottom 47% of the league sprint speed, but he still used his wiles to nab 14 bags. He may not be in his physical prime anymore, but Betts proved in 2023 that he has plenty of years of elite production left in him. 2024 Projection: 120/34/91/.290/.381/.536/13

15) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 31.6 – Mookie Betts’ beastly season is a reminder that not every year can be a banger. It wasn’t Ramirez’ best season with only 24 homers in 156 games, but there is absolutely nothing in the underlying numbers that would be concerning in the slightest, and we know his power is fine after watching him drop Anderson on a single punch. He’s also not slowing down on the bases at all with 28 steals. Even in a down-ish year, he still finished 29th overall on the Razzball Player Rater. 2024 Projection: 94/31/101/.281/.360/.511/26

16) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 23.1 – Harris’ surface stats took a step back in his 2nd year in the bigs with a .808 OPS in 2023 vs. a .853 OPS in 2022, but his underlying numbers actually showed a player who was improving. His contact rates took a big step forward with a 18.7% K% (24.3% in 2022), his EV took a 1.4 MPH jump to 90.9 MPH, his launch increased by 3.1 degrees to 7.6, and his xwOBA increased by .020 to .355. He hit .293 with 18 homers and 20 steals in 138 games, and he was even better in his final 100 games with a .912 OPS. He still needs to improve his plate approach with a 4.6% BB%, but Harris cemented his status as a near elite dynasty asset in 2023. 2024 Projection: 91/23/82/.287/.333/.480/27

17) Trea Turner PHI, SS, 30.9 – I was pounding the table to buy low on Turner all season, but he came on too strong at the end of the year to get any discount on him this off-season. He slashed .339/.391/.677 with 16 homers, 9 steals and 16.9% K% in his final 47 games, and he’s currently destroying the playoffs with a 222 wRC+ in 11 games. He had a .656 OPS in his first 108 games. He also hasn’t lost even half a step with the 4th fastest sprint speed in the game. That buy low window slammed shut hard at the trade deadline. 2024 Projection: 105/25/83/.289/.340/.481/35

18) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 20.1 – Baseball now uses minor leaguers like guinea pigs, testing out every hairbrained idea they have all willy nilly, and Chourio got caught in the crosshairs of it. The Southern League used a pre-tacked ball for the first half of the season, and Chourio put up a lowly .714 OPS in 71 games. When they went back to the regular ball, he immediately went gangbusters, slashing .324/.379/.538 with 11 homers, 21 steals, and a 13.4%/8.0% K%/BB% in 57 games. He closed out the season at Triple-A where he put up a 4.2%/8.3% K%/BB% in 6 games. He did all of this as a 19 year old. The power/speed combo is plus to double plus, and it sure looks like his contact rates are entering the elite range if you ignore what he did in the 1st half. Jackson Holliday seems to be the consensus #1 prospect in the game (and Wyatt Langford is the trendy #1 for fantasy), but if Chourio hit with the regular ball all season, I’m not so sure that would be the case. The main thing Holliday has over Chourio right now is plate approach, which makes him the safer prospect, but for fantasy, I gotta give the ever so slight edge to the power/speed combo. Milwaukee showed us they are all in by signing him to an 8 year, $82 million contract. It makes it much more likely that he will break camp with the team, and even if doesn’t, it won’t be long until he’s up for good. Chourio is my #1 fantasy prospect. 2024 Projection: 69/21/75/.258/.320/.469/25 Prime Projection: 101/32/104/.283/.353/.523/41

19) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 20.4 – Holliday’s power/speed combo really wasn’t that huge with only 12 homers and 24 steals (in 33 attempts) in 125 games spread across 4 levels (A, A+, AA, AAA). It dropped off even further in the upper minors with 5 homers and 4 steals in 54 games. It seems crazy to start his blurb off with criticism, but when the battle for the top prospect in the game is so close, it needs to be highlighted. Now that we got that out of the way, Holliday had an absolutely insane season where he slashed .323/.442/.499 with a 20.3%/17.4% K%/BB%. He was in high school last year, and he displayed one of the most advanced plate approaches of any prospect all the way through Triple-A. This is why everyone drools over kids with baseball bloodlines, they tend to be far advanced beyond their years. As I mentioned, the power isn’t fully developed yet with relatively low flyball rates, but he hits the ball hard with a 30.2% Hard Hit% and a 90.9 MPH EV in 40 batted balls at Triple-A, so I’m not concerned about the power long term. He has the safety edge over Chourio, but it’s not like Chourio is a risky prospect, so Holliday slots in at #2 for me. 2024 Projection: 78/16/71/.270/.339/.441/20 Prime Projection: 117/27/94/.296/.382/.506/28

20) Wyatt Langford TEX, OF, 22.5 – I have Chourio, Holliday, and Langford in a tier of their own atop my Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings. The only reason Langford is 3rd is because Chourio/Holliday have a longer professional track record and more impressive age to level production. But his power, speed, hit tool, plate approach, and production can rival anyone’s. He was selected 4th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft on the back of elite production in the SEC, slashing .373/.498/.784 with 21 homers, 9 steals, and a 44/56 K/BB in 64 games. He clearly separated himself from Dylan Crews in his pro debut, slashing .360/.480/.677 with 10 homers, 12 steals, and a 17.0%/18.0% K%/BB% in 44 games, and he was equally as dominant in the upper minors as he was the lower minors. He’s the total package, and if you wanted to rank him 1st overall on prospects rankings, I wouldn’t argue with you. 2024 Projection: 81/26/77/.262/.338/.479/18 Prime Projection: 103/34/109/.277/.364/.535/24

21) Spencer Strider ATL, RHP, 25.5 – If Strider’s 3.86 ERA opens up even the smallest buy window, I would be all over it. He had a 3.04 xERA, 2.92 xFIP, and 2.86 SIERA. His 22 homers against wasn’t bat at all, so you can’t even blame a homer problem. ERA is just about the least predictive stat there is. He got unlucky. Simple as that. His 36.8%% K% led the league by a large margin, and strikeouts are king in fantasy. Glasnow was 2nd at 33.4% and Skubal was 3rd at 32.9%. His control continued to improve with an above average 7.6% BB%, and he proved he can handle a full workload with 186.2 IP. He also led the league in wins with 20, and while that was partly due to good luck, Atlanta is a perennial winner, so he should continue to be among the league leaders there. He was the #1 fantasy pitcher in 2024, and considering his age and strikeout upside, he’s in a tier of his own as the easy #1 overall pitcher in dynasty. 2024 Projection: 16/3.18/1.04/266 in 182 IP

22) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 25.0 – Vlad got very unlucky in 2023. His .374 xwOBA (top 7% of the league) vs. .340 wOBA was the 8th largest differential in baseball, and this is the first year he’s ever underperformed his underlying numbers, so this isn’t a trend for him. He crushes the ball with a 92.1 MPH EV, he makes near elite contact with a 14.7% K%, and he raised his launch to a career high 10.5 degrees. With that type of profile, he simply can’t be held down for long. The only thing rattling around my head that gives me some pause is that the only season he really had a beastly year, 2021, was the year he played over half his home games at their spring training ballpark and Triple-A ballpark, both of which played like extreme hitter’s parks. If you take that year out of the equation, he’s really yet to display the ability to be a truly elite fantasy player, but at the end of the day (and the beginning of the day), the underlying numbers don’t lie. He looks setup for a big 2024. 2024 Projection: 92/31/101/.286/.359/.507/6

23) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 27.5 – There is no fancy analysis needed for Devers. He rips the ball (93.1 MPH) with a swing geared for both power and average (12.4 degree launch). His plate approach has also slowly been improving with a career best 19.2%/9.5% K%/BB%. The guy is as safe and consistent as they come. 2024 Projection: 93/34/106/.280/.358/.513/5

24) Austin Riley ATL, 3B, 27.0 – Riley is Devers’ righthanded brother from another mother. The plate approach might only be average-ish, but he rips the ball (92.3 MPH EV) with a swing geared for both power and average (13.5 degree launch). He’s averaging 36 homers with a .285 BA over his last 3 seasons. 2024 Projection: 97/36/102/.274/.347/.519/3

25) Corey Seager TEX, SS, 29.11 – I ranked Seager 38th overall last off-season, starting his Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “Seager doesn’t get the respect he deserves in the fantasy world,” and I ended it by writing, “If he hits .300 next year with 35 homers it wouldn’t be surprising at all.” He blew past even my high expectations with a .327 BA and an over 40 homer pace if he didn’t miss time. If you include the postseason, he hit almost exactly 35 homers in 136 games (36 homers). He’s an elite hitter with a 93.3 MPH EV, 13 degree launch, .413 xwOBA, and 16.4%/9.1% K%/BB%. Nobody will be underrating him anymore. 2024 Projection: 95/35/104/.291/.369/.538/3

26) Freddie Freeman LAD, 1B, 34.7 – The only question with the 34 year old Freeman is how much longer can he keep it up. I’m ranking him this high because I’m betting on him being productive deep into his 30’s, but he was the 3rd overall fantasy player this year, so this ranking does actually include an age discount. He showed zero signs of decline in 2023 with a .409 xwOBA which was in the top 2% of the league. He’s never had an xwOBA that wasn’t in at least the top 4% of the league in the Statcast era. He’s possibly the most consistently great hitter of his generation. He also took advantage of the new rules with a career high by far 23 steals. Certainly in win now mode Freeman isn’t going anywhere, but even in a rebuild I wouldn’t feel that much pressure to move him. 2024 Projection: 120/30/101/.313/.396/.528/18

27) Francisco Lindor NYM, SS, 30.5 – Lindor put up the quietest 30/30 (actually 31/31) season of all time. He somehow found the fountain of youth with career best power numbers and a major speed bounce back. He notched career bests in EV (91.2 MPH), Barrel% (10.4%), and launch angle (19.2 degrees). His sprint speed hit a 5 year high of 28.2 ft/sec, and he took advantage of the new rules with a career high 31 steals. He managed to do all of this with a bone spur in his elbow which required surgery this off-season, but with how many guys rake right through torn UCL’S and barely miss any time after getting Tommy John surgery, I’m not even sure you need elbows at all to hit. 2024 Projection: 100/30/96/.258/.337/.475/26

28) Matt Olson ATL, 1B, 30.0 – Olson led the league in homers with 54. Schwarber’s 47 was a distant 2nd. His already double plus power leveled up to truly elite levels with a career high in Barrel% (16.4%), EV (93.7 MPH), Max EV (118.6 MPH), Hard Hit% (55.5%) and xwOBA (.394). His .283 BA was probably on the lucky side with a .263 xBA, but the days of being concerned about his hit tool are over with a 23.2%/14.% K%/BB%. 2023 strikes me as a career year, but Olson is one of the premier power hitters in baseball. 2024 Projection: 104/42/119/.267/.368/.549/1

29) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS/3B, 22.9 – If Gunnar took advantage of the new stolen base rules like almost everyone else, Gunnar vs. Carroll would still look very close today, but he only attempted 13 steals in 150 games. It’s not like he couldn’t have run more with a 28.8 ft/sec sprint and a solid 77% success rate, so if he just decides to start running more in 2024, he could quickly rise up the dynasty rankings even further. Even with the modest steal totals, there is a ton to love, led by how hard he crushes the ball. His 92 MPH EV is in the top 9% of the league, and he unsurprisingly raised his launch angle much higher than in his MLB debut in 2022 (2 degrees) with an 11.4 degree launch. He also cemented the huge jump his hit tool took in 2022 with a 25.6%/9.0% K%/BB% this year. It all led to a 123 wRC+ with 28 homers. The only issue he hasn’t corrected is his struggles vs. lefties with a .618 OPS, but Baltimore looks committed to playing him everyday and not turning him into a platoon guy, so I have faith he will hit them well enough over time. Keep in mind he will still be only 22 at the start of next season. 2024 Projection: 97/30/91/.266/.341/.506/15

30) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 29.5 – Alonso’s .205 BABIP was dead last among qualified hitters. He has a career .259 BABIP and he had a .279 BABIP in 2022. Point being, his .217 BA is going to bounce back in a big way in 2024, especially considering he has no contact issues with a 22.9%/9.9% K%/BB%. What you’re buying is the elite power anyway, and it was in prime form with 46 homers (3rd most in the league). If that low BA opens up even a crack of buy low value, jump on it. 2024 Projection: 94/42/120/.253/.346/.516/4

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 275 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100+ COMING NEXT WEEK)
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: September 2023 Top 393 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings

We’re finishing out the season strong over on the Patreon with Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings Week. I was more lenient with these rankings, including everyone under 50 IP or 130 AB. Previous rankings are in parenthesis from August through the off-season, in that order. I’ll be going over 350 deep with blurbs for just about everyone. Top 30 free here on the Brick Wall. And just a reminder that there is tons of content coming all off-season with Team Dynasty Reports, deep positional rankings, Winter League updates, strategy articles, podcasts, and very, very early releases of the Top 100 FYPD Rankings, Top 500 Prospects Rankings, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings. On that note, here is the September 2023 Top 393 Dynasty Prospects Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-SEPTEMBER TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: SEPTEMBER MAILBAG! (9/22/23)
-Off-Season content includes team prospect lists, deep positional rankings, strategy articles, podcasts and very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

1) (1) (1) (1) (2) (6) (13) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.10 – Finally met a level he couldn’t just dominate right off the bat with a 85 wRC+ in 12 games at Triple-A, but really he’s just getting unlucky with a 13.6%/16.9% K%/BB% and .250 BABIP

2) (2) (2) (3) (5) (4) (3) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.6 – Slashing .323/.380/.544 with 11 homers, 20 steals, and a 34/19 K/BB in 51 games with the regular ball

3) (3) (3) (2) (6) (3) (7) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 21.2 – Made his MLB debut and is struggling with 8 strikeouts and a 9 wRC+ in 22 PA. He had a 20.6% K% in the upper minors, so I wouldn’t be too concerned. If this creates a buying opportunity this off-season, I would be all over it

4) (5) (5) (5) (11) (47) (92) Junior Caminero TBR, 3B, 20.2 – Plate approach actually managed to improve at Double-A with a 17.1%/9.1% K%/BB% in 81 games (25.2%/8.3% K%/BB% in 36 games at High-A). If you don’t care about steals, Caminero has a case to be the top prospect in baseball

5) (FYPD-1) (7) (8) Wyatt Langford TEX, OF, 21.9 – Langford just passed Crews in my 2024 Top 54 First Year Player Draft Rankings that dropped on the Patreon last week. The much superior Double-A production makes it a relatively easy call

6) (11) (11) (13) (14) (41) (30) Noelvi Marte CIN, SS, 21.10 – Remember when everyone called him fat and slow this off-season? Well, Marte has 6 steals with a 28.9 ft/sec sprint speed which is in the top 11% of the league. He’s also crushing the ball with a 92.4 MPH EV in 83 PA which has led to a .303 BA. Dude is going to be a fantasy beast

7) (4) (6) (6) (18) (23) (25) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 21.5 – 0 hits and 4 strikeouts in 10 MLB PA. Dynasty owners are notorious for running scared after poor small sample MLB debuts, so I would be licking my chops if a nervous owner makes Lawlar or Pete Crow available this off-season

8) (FYPD-2) (6) (7) Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 21.6 – 0 homers with a 73 wRC+ in 20 games at Double-A. He was also 4 for 10 on the bases in 35 games. It’s not a great pro debut, but it’s too small of a sample to get concerned. I’m still betting on him being a beast

9) (FYPD-3) Yoshinobu Yamamoto JPN, RHP, 25.1 – Yamamoto looks like a ready made ace. He has the filthy stuff, plus control, plus durability, diverse pitch mix, plus strikeout rates, lights out production, athletic delivery  … there is nothing he doesn’t have

10) (10) (10) (17) (15) (13) (34) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 21.0 – Electric pro debut with 1 homer, 2 steals, and a .864 OPS in 33 PA, but a 38.8% whiff% and 86.8 MPH EV says there could still be an an adjustment period coming

11) (8) (4) (4) (7) (14) (8) James Wood WAS, OF, 21.0 – 33.7% K% in 87 games at Double-A adds a healthy dose of risk to the very high upside profile

12) (12) (13) (14) (16) (15) (10) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.8 – Was in the midst of a historic MLB debut with 4 homers in 8 games before going down with a torn UCL that required Tommy John surgery. He’s expected to miss 9-10 months which puts the 2nd half of 2024 as the target return date. Tommy John isn’t as big of a deal for hitters as it is for pitchers, so I wouldn’t be concerned long term, but short term, I would consider any contributions in 2024 gravy

13) (FYPD-4) (13) (16) Walker Jenkins MIN, OF, 18.6 – Meet the #1 prospect in baseball by this time next year

14) (FYPD-5) (9) (9) Paul Skenes PIT, RHP, 21.3 – Now everyone is talking shit about the fastball shape, but with the big velocity, command, and excellent secondaries, I wouldn’t sweat it too much

15) (23) (21) (35) (32) (70) (118) Ronny Mauricio NYM, SS, 22.5 – Profile is completely transferring to the majors with a 91.3 MPH EV, 3 steals, and a 23.5%/5.9% K%/BB% in 51 PA

16) (FYPD-6) (36) (43) Matt Shaw CHC, SS, 21.10 – Double-A production (3 homers, 6 steals, and a 17.1% K% in 15 games) puts him in Tier 1 of First Year Player Draft Rankings (unless you consider Langford in a tier of his own)

17) (28) (29) (134) (192) (232) (319) Roman Anthony BOS, OF, 19.4 – Called up to Double-A and is slashing .343/.477/.543 with 1 homer, 3 steals, and a 13.6%/18.2% K%/BB% in 10 games. He’s putting a cherry on top of a great season

18) (63) (84) (181) (212) (277) (249) Jackson Jobe DET, RHP, 21.1 – Made his debut at Double-A and was silly dominant, going 6 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER, and a 6/0 K/BB. He was already an elite pitching prospect, and that performance puts him in the conversation for the best pitching prospect in baseball

19) (17) (24) (50) (57) (67) (71) Jackson Merrill SDP, SS, 20.4 – Brought the GB% all the way down to 33.5% in 46 games at Double-A, although it still hasn’t turned him into a power hitting beast with 5 homers

20) (22) (NA) (12) (9) (32) (38) Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 23.3 – Failed hard in the majors with a .434 OPS in 77 PA, but nothing in the underlying numbers is setting off alarm bells, and he was definitely unlucky with a .226 wOBA vs. .302 xwOBA. He’s now back to raking at Triple-A

21) (30) (26) (38) (41) (53) (51) Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 22.4 – Double-A debut has been very encouraging with 3 homers, 8 steals, and a 28.2%/9% K%/BB% in 17 games. The fact the K% hasn’t skyed to like 40% is a good sign

22) (FYPD-7) (14) (14) Max Clark DET, OF, 18.8 – Single-A slowed him down with a 29.4% K% and 73 wRC+, but he still has Corbin Carroll/PCA 2.0 written all over him

23) (15) (33) (55) (135) (185) (265) Ethan Salas SDP, C, 17.3 – Promoting him to Double-A just seemed silly and unnecessary, but it doesn’t take away from his unprecedented season as a 17 year old in full season ball

24) (29) (22) (19) (17) (22) (48) Coby Mayo BAL, 3B, 21.9 – I ranked Mayo 8th overall on my Predicting the Top 50 2024 Prospects Rankings back in February on the Patreon and wrote, “Mayo will follow in Gunnar Henderson’s footsteps with an off the charts type season in the upper minors. He’ll put up a 150 wRC+ at Double-A and a 130 wRC+ at Triple-A. The K% will be under 25%, the power will be huge, and there will be some surprising speed too.” … I came pretty close to nailing that on the dot with a 178 wRC+ at Double-A, 123 wRC+ at Triple-A, a 23.8% K%, and 28 homers. The one thing that didn’t come to fruition was the speed with only 5 steals, but come on, not bad if I don’t say so myself

25) (27) (28) (43) (56) (42) (33) Emmanuel Rodriguez MIN, OF, 20.6 – Cracked 2 dingers yesterday in the High-A playoffs. Baby Bonds is clutch too

26) (26) (27) (22) (24) (46) (47) Harry Ford SEA, C, 20.5 – The still underhyped Ford has an electric power/speed combo (15 homers and 24 steals in 118 games at High-A), and it comes with an elite plate approach (19.4%/18.3% K%/BB%)

27) (32) (31) (51) (59) (54) (52) Termarr Johnson PIT, 2B/SS, 19.3 – I ranked Johnson 33rd overall on the Predicting the 2024 Dynasty Prospects Rankings back in February and wrote, “Johnson’s hit tool at Single-A won’t be as good as the hype with an over 20% K% and under .280 BA. The power/speed numbers will be good though, and he’ll still destroy the level with a 130 wRC+.” … nailed that one too as Johnson put up a .244 BA, 26% K%, 18 homers, 10 steals, and a 141 wRC+ in 105 games split between Single-A and High-A

28) (33) (32) (211) (251) (318) (320) Sebastian Walcott TEX, SS, 17.4 – 32.5%/6.4% K%/BB% in 35 games in stateside rookie ball is on the extreme side regardless of his age, but I’m still betting on the truly elite talent

29) (38) (73) (64) (38) (57) (335) Mason Miller OAK, RHP, 24.5 – Returned from the UCL injury and has gone 5 IP over 3 outings. The huge stuff is all the way back, but Oakland is going to be super careful with him to close out the season. The high upside/high risk profile is pretty self evident right now

30) (37) (46) (53) (120) (126) (171) Cade Horton CHC, RHP, 22.0 – 1.33 ERA with a 28.4%/10.1% K%/BB% in 27 IP at Double-A. The Double-A production has cemented his elite pitching prospect status

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-SEPTEMBER TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: SEPTEMBER MAILBAG! (9/22/23)
-Off-Season content includes team prospect lists, deep positional rankings, strategy articles, podcasts and very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (9/11/23)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (9/11/23):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON & OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-SEPTEMBER TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-AUGUST TOP 379 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-7 END OF SEASON STRATEGIES AND THOUGHTS
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: AUGUST MAILBAG! (8/25/23)
-TOP 38 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (8/15/23)
-TOP 17 DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (8/3/23)
-Off-Season content includes team prospect lists, deep positional rankings, strategy articles, and very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.7 – It turns out even Martians have UCL’s, and they apparently aren’t that sturdy as the The Martian tore his UCL and will require Tommy John surgery that could keep him out through the first half of 2024 as well. Tommy John surgery isn’t as big a deal for hitters as it is for pitchers, but it feels like it came at the worst possible time with him in the midst of a historic MLB debut with 4 homers in his first 8 games. He checked in at #97 on the September Top 476 Dynasty Baseball Rankings that dropped on the Patreon last week, but with the injury, I might drop him more towards the 120 range.

Noelvi Marte CIN, SS, 21.10 – These rookies are dropping like flies. Marte broke his nose after getting hit in the face playing catch with Elly De La Cruz. I always hated getting paired up with the kid who threw a 90 MPH tailing fastball in warmups, but unlike Marte, I always managed to actually catch the ball. Score one for Halp. On the other hand, I did break my nose while playing basketball my freshman year of college, and the ER doctor just said, “yup, it’s broken,” and sent me back out there with nothing they could do for it. I sat out a few days of my volleyball class before getting bored and deciding to play through it. I’m assuming Marte will do the same. He was in the midst of shoving it in all the scouts faces who called him fat and slow this off-season with 6 steals and a 28.8 ft/sec sprint speed, which is in the top 14 percent of the league. I feel like speed grades are by far the least reliable from scouts. He was also crushing the ball with a 92.4 MPH EV. All signs point towards him being a fantasy beast.

Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 21.5/Wyatt Langford TEX, OF, 21.8 – In my 7 End of Season Strategies and Thoughts (Patreon) article, I wrote that your focus should be on 2023 draftees, because that is where the largest swings in value will occur this late in the season, and right now, the first swing in value could be happening at the very top of the FYPD rankings. Crews continues to surprisingly struggle hard at Double-A with a measly 39 wRC+ in 16 games, while Langford recently got the call to the level and keeps on rolling with a 142 wRC+ in 6 games. They were already 1A and 1B for me in the rankings, and their Double-A performance could be tipping the scales to Langford for that top spot. It’s still obviously a small sample, and I would be very happy with either, but if I were picking today, I’m going Langford.

Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.9 – Holliday finally met a level he couldn’t just dominate right from the jump with a 64 wRC+, 0 homers and 0 steals in 6 games at Triple-A, but I’m sure the hot streak is coming as he went 2 for 3 with a double and 2 walks last night, and he has an elite 10%/16.7% K%/BB%. I mentioned in the August Top 379 Prospects Rankings that the one blemish (I wouldn’t even really call it a blemish, more of a smudge) on his profile is that the power/speed combo has slowed down in the upper minors with only 3 homers and 3 steals in his last 42 games. He has only 10 homers in 113 games on the season. He’s only 19, and the season he just had is ridiculous for his age, so it seems silly to even mention, but when there is another uber 19 year old in Jackson Chourio right behind him, it’s at least something to think about if you are choosing between the 2 in startup dynasty drafts this off-season.

Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.6 – Speaking of Chourio, he hits dingers in his sleep, and he smacked his 22nd of the season at Double-A going the opposite way. It also comes with 41 steals. We got a couple of really fun debates coming up this off-season at both the top of first year player drafts (Crews vs. Langford) and at the top of prospect drafts (Holliday vs. Chourio).

Paul Skenes PIT, RHP, 21.2/Yoshinobu Yamamoto FA, RHP, 25.1 – The fun debates don’t end with the hitters, because we have one brewing with who should be the first pitcher off the board in First Year Player Drafts as well. While everyone is slicing and dicing Skenes fastball shape, Yamamoto is out there pitching no hitters in Japan on Friday. He’s having a spotless season with a 1.20 ERA and 152/24 K/BB in 150 IP. He has the filthy stuff, plus control, plus durability, diverse pitch mix, plus strikeout rates, athletic delivery  … there is nothing he doesn’t have, and I think he will make it very tough to pass him up in favor of Skenes. Right now, I have Yamamoto as the top dog.

Druw Jones ARI, OF, 19.8 – Look who finally decided to join us for the 2023 season. Jones is showing up fashionably late, or maybe at this point he’s just rudely late, but he finally showed up nonetheless. He went 3 for 5 with a stolen base yesterday and is now slashing .339/.438/.500 with 2 homers, 6 steals, and a 15/11 K/BB in his last 16 games at Single-A. It brings his season wRC+ at the level to an above average 104 in 29 games, which takes his season from a total disaster to just disappointing. Coming off the shoulder surgery and the myriad of injuries he suffered this year, it’s fair to write this season off as a lost year, and with him showing signs of life here, he might make for a good buy low this off-season.

Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 21.5 – With every top prospect and their mother getting called up to the majors, Petey Crow must be feeling pretty lonely still at Triple-A, and he’s taking his frustration out on the baseball. He went 4 for 5 yesterday with a double and a grand salami. It’s his second grand slam in 6 games, and there is really nothing left for him to prove in the minors. His path to the majors isn’t exactly wide open, but he’s not really blocked either. I’m expecting a callup before the end of the season, but who knows really. Update: Literally minutes after publishing this article it was announced PCA will be called up to the bigs. Perfect timing ha

Jackson Jobe DET, RHP, 20.10 – Jobe got a late start to the season coming off a serious back injury, so you are forgiven if it slipped by you that he very well might have a legitimate case to be the best pitching prospect in baseball. He threw another gem yesterday, going 5 IP with 5 hits, 1 ER, and a 7/0 K/BB at High-A. Here is a highlight reel of the filth. He now has a 3.10 ERA with a 78/6 K/BB in 58 IP. He throws 3 at least plus pitches in his fastball, slider, and changeup. If his hype doesn’t explode this off-season like it should, he will be a major target.

Barrett Kent LAA, RHP, 18.11 – The 6’4”, 215 pound Kent was an 8th round pick in this year’s draft, but he signed for almost $1 million, so you know how much LA liked him. He’s now turning heads in pro ball after making his full season debut at Single-A yesterday, going 4 IP with 2 hit, 0 ER, and a 5/1 K/BB. The fastball sat low to mid 90’s and he broke off some nasty changeups. He’s shaping up to be a nice later round target if you stock up on hitters early.

Michael King NYY, RHP, 28.3 – The Yankees rotation is crumbling piece by piece, but one man has risen from the ashes, and we call that man King (because that’s his name). Michael King is becoming a very enticing target this off-season after being transitioned to the rotation, and he had another great outing on Saturday, going 5 IP with 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 9/1 K/BB vs. MIL. The sinker sat 94.8 MPH, the changeup notched a 71% whiff% and the sweeper notched a 43% whiff%. It’s his 3rd straight excellent start in a row, and as you can see, he most certainly has the stuff to back it up. He was a starter in the minors, and a damn good one at that with a 2.96 ERA in 392.2 career MiLB IP, so none of this is foreign to him. He could be legit.

Kevin Alcantara CHC, OF, 21.2 – Alcantara closed out his season with a bang, going 4 for 4 with a double, homer, and a play at the plate which showed off his flair for the dramatic. He got off to a slow start on the season, but he’s been a man possessed over his last 62 games, slashing .330/.401/.540 with 9 homers, 5 steals, and a 57/27 K/BB at High-A. He has an excellent 124 wRC+ in 95 games on the season. Don’t sleep on this 6”6”, 188 pound unicorn athlete, because the hype could explode when he takes on the upper minors in 2024.

Myles Naylor OAK, SS, 18.5 – Naylor 3.0 was drafted 39th overall in this year’s draft, and he’s off to an extreme start, both good and bad, in his pro debut. He went deep for his 6th homer in 34 games at mostly Single-A yesterday, but it comes with a brutal 39.6% K%. That is in Elijah Green cover your eyes territory. You have to love the bloodlines (Josh and Bo are his older brothers) and the power, but that K% has to scare you off at least a little.

Victor Scott STL, OF, 22.6 – Scott is an absolute machine on the bases as he once again nabbed 3 bags in a game. It’s the 8th time he’s done that this year. His contact/speed profile has had no issues at Double-A with a 14.3% K%, 43 steals, 6 homers and a .328 BA in 60 games at the level. Make no mistake, Scott is one of the top speed prospects in all of baseball. Easy Top 100 prospect.

AJ Vukovich ARI, 3B, 22.1 – Vukovich has very quietly put together a strong season at Double-A, and it got stronger yesterday with him cracking a dinger. It’s his 2nd homer in 3 games, 3rd homer in 6 games, 4th homer in 10 games, 5th homer in 19 games, 6th homer in 29 games, 7th homer in 37 games, 8th homer in 39 games, 9th homer in 40 games … you get the point, he has a lot of homers (24 homers in 110 games at Double-A to be exact) ;). He’s a big dude at 6’2”, 210 pounds, and he’s also an excellent athlete, evidenced by 17 steals. The plate approach is rough with a 28.3%/8.8% K%/BB%, so there is risk, but he’s a legitimately exciting prospect. He checked in at #234 on the August Top 379 Prospects Rankings (Patreon).

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON & OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-SEPTEMBER TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-AUGUST TOP 379 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-7 END OF SEASON STRATEGIES AND THOUGHTS
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: AUGUST MAILBAG! (8/25/23)
-TOP 38 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (8/15/23)
-TOP 17 DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (8/3/23)
-Off-Season content includes team prospect lists, deep positional rankings, strategy articles, and very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: August 2023 Top 379 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings

It’s Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings Week over on the Patreon, and as usual, I’m going about 350 deep with blurbs for everyone. Top 21 are free here on the Brick Wall. Only prospects currently in the minors were eligible for this list with the exception of the very recently called up players (Winn, Noelvi). Previous rankings are in parenthesis from July through the off-season, in that order. Here is the August 2023 Top 379 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON & OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-AUGUST TOP 477 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 17 DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (8/3/23)
-7 END OF SEASON STRATEGIES AND THOUGHTS
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: AUGUST MAILBAG! (8/25/23)
-TOP 38 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (8/15/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

1) (1) (1) (2) (6) (13) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.9 – I hate to even mention it but Holliday’s power/speed combo has been a little lacking at Double-A with 3 homers and 1 steal in 25 games. He has only 10 homers in 105 games on the season. He’s only 19 years old and he has a 164 wRC+ at the level, which is why it’s almost silly to mention, but there is another 19 year old at Double-A who is breathing down Holliday’s neck, and he’s a power/speed glutton …

2) (2) (3) (5) (4) (3) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.5 – Holliday and Chourio ranked 25th and 26th overall on the Top 477 August 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings, so it’s a literal coin flip for me. Holliday has the safety and hit tool edge, while Chourio has the power/speed edge (17 homers and 34 steals in 100 games).

3) (3) (2) (6) (3) (7) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 21.1 – Called up to Triple-A and is unsurprisingly raking with 2 homers, 2 steals, and a 13%/17.4% K%/BB% in 5 games. He ranked 1st overall on my Top 39 Prospects to Stash for 2023 Only that dropped last week on the Patreon.

4) (6) (6) (18) (23) (25) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 21.4 – Called up to Triple-A and hasn’t slowed down at all, slashing .299/.397/.567 with 4 homers, 5 steals, and a 21.8%/12.8% K%/BB% in 16 games. I’ve been screaming from the mountaintops that Armstrong was going to be beast for years now, and it’s all coming to fruition

5) (5) (5) (11) (47) (92) Junior Caminero TBR, 3B, 20.1 – Caught fire at Double-A in his last 12 games, slashing .370/.420/.761 with 6 homers and a 7/3 K/BB. He’s the righty version of Rafael Devers

6) (7) Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 21.5 – Stupid good at Single-A with a 192 wRC+ in 14 games. It earned him a promotion to Double-A, and I’m not sure the Double-A competition will be much better at slowing him down

7) (8) Wyatt Langford TEX, OF, 21.8 – Having no issues at High-A with a 152 wRC+ in 14 games. He can’t be far behind Crews for his first crack at the upper minors

8) (4) (4) (7) (14) (8) James Wood WAS, OF, 20.11 – 33.1% K% with a .227 BA in 64 games at Double-A officially puts his hit tool in the danger zone, but I’m still betting on the talent and future adjustments

9) (9) Paul Skenes PIT, RHP, 21.2 – He’s been untouchable in his pro debut, going 4 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 5/0 K/BB over 3 short outings at rookie and Single-A. He’s an ace waiting to happen with a fire 4 pitch mix (fastball, slider, cutter, change).

10) (10) (17) (15) (13) (34) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 20.11 – 0 homers in his last 13 games after his little power binge … he might not be a power hitting beast quite yet

11) (11) (13) (14) (41) (30) Noelvi Marte CIN, SS, 21.9 – Marte’s speed has been questioned for over a year now, so he went out and stole third base in his MLB debut, and then hit a hustle double for his first MLB hit. I have no idea where everyone plays when India and Fraley get healthy, but I’m not sure how Marte’s contact/power/speed profile got so underrated.

12) (13) (14) (16) (15) (10) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.7 – The hit tool has been much improved of late, slashing .333/.401/.494 with 5 homers, 19 steals, and a 44/21 K/BB in his last 42 games at Double-A. That was the last thing we needed to see to cement his elite fantasy prospect status

13) (16) Walker Jenkins MIN, OF, 18.5 – Slashing .340/.380/.574 with 2 homers, 3 steals, and a 14%/6% K%/BB% in 12 games in rookie ball. He’s going to be an elite prospect in no time

14) (14) Max Clark DET, OF, 18.7 – Slashing .268/.348/.561 with 2 homers, 2 steals, and a 21.7%/10.9% K%/BB% in 10 games in rookie ball. He’s right on track to become the next Carroll/Armstrong

15) (33) (55) (135) (185) (265) Ethan Salas SDP, C, 17.2 – Called up to High-A and put up a 36 wRC+ in 9 games, which somehow earned him a promotion to Double-A. He’s 17 years old. I’m scratching my head. Why?

16) (34) (72) (50) (48) (42) Masyn Winn STL, SS, 21.4 – Called up to the majors and is struggling with a 71.8 MPH EV and 27.3%/0.0% K%/BB% in 3 games. It’s obviously a super small sample, but I wouldn’t expect him to explode in his age 21 year old season. It might take a couple years for him to really hit his peak a la CJ Abrams.

17) (24) (50) (57) (67) (71) Jackson Merrill SDP, SS, 20.3 – The GB% has come all the way down to 36.9% in 31 games at Double-A, and he’s done it while maintaining the elite contact rates (10.6% K%). It’s resulted in 4 homers, 5 steals, and a .312 BA

18) (35) (63) (66) (73) (354) Tyler Black MIL, 2B/3B, 23.0 – Black was one of my first major buy calls all the way back in April, and he’s now on the verge of a call up after getting promoted to Triple-A. He plays 2B and 3B and Milwaukee is very weak at 2B and 3B.

19) (12) (42) (48) (119) (80) Everson Pereira NYY, OF, 22.4 – Christopher Morel 2.0. He’s wrecking Triple-A with 8 homers and 4 steals in 35 games, but the swing and miss could tank him in the majors

20) (15) (20) (19) (31) (31) Marcelo Mayer BOS, SS, 20.8 – Out since August 2nd with a shoulder injury. A .220 BABIP was really his biggest issue at Double-A

21) (17) (16) (13) (12) (16) Ricky Tiedemann TOR, LHP, 21.0 – Beastly stuff and huge K upside makes you want to completely ignore that he has a 6.35 ERA in 17 IP at Double-A

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON & OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-AUGUST TOP 477 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 17 DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (8/3/23)
-7 END OF SEASON STRATEGIES AND THOUGHTS
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: AUGUST MAILBAG! (8/25/23)
-TOP 38 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (8/15/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Mid-Season 2023 Top 356 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings

We back for the Mid-Season Edition of the Top 356 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings over on Patreon. Top 20 free here on the Brick Wall. Only players currently in the minors were eligible for this list. The new draftees are included. Previous rankings are in parenthesis (from June through the off-season, in that order). Here is the Mid-Season 2023 Top 356 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 473 JULY DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (7/14/23)
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (6/29/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JULY MAILBAG! (7/28/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

1) (1) (2) (6) (13) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.8 – Got the call to Double-A and just continues to cement his top dog status with 1 homer, a 15% K% and 146 wRC+ in 9 games. He better keep it up though, because he has someone nipping at his heels …

2) (3) (5) (4) (3) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.4 – New ball, new Chourio … or should I say old ball, old Chourio. He’s back to tearing up the minors with a 1.367 OPS, 3 homers and 5 steals in 9 games at Double-A post break. I’m tempted to put him back over Holliday

3) (2) (6) (3) (7) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 21.0 – Lawlar ranked 13th on my Top 26 Prospects to Stash for 2023 Only (Patreon). He’s been dominating Double-A for months now with a .979 OPS in his last 40 games, he’s already 21 years old, Perdomo is due for regression, and Arizona is fighting for a playoff spot.

4) (4) (7) (14) (8) James Wood WAS, OF, 20.10 – .208 BA with a 31.6% K% in 41 games at Double-A shows the hit tool risk is real, but I wouldn’t let it scare you off too much as the 6’6”, 240 pound Wood is the next head exploding, elite athlete that will make mainstream baseball fans go crazy when he does get the call

5) (5) (11) (47) (92) Junior Caminero TBR, 3B, 20.0 – The righty version of Rafael Devers

6) (6) (18) (23) (25) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 21.3 – The power is exploding with 12 homers in 68 games at Double-A, the speed is elite with 23 steals, and he’s never had any hit tool issues with a career .304 BA in the minors. He’s straight elite

7) Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 21.4 – Ranked 1st on my Top 50 2024 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon): “Let’s cut right to the chase, if any pitcher would make me pass on the type of hitting talent Crews and Langford are, it would be Paul Skenes, so I have no issue going Skenes first, but with how an entire pitcher’s career trajectory can be changed on a single pitch, I just can’t take that risk. Selected 2nd overall, Crews is built like a solid rock at 6’0”, 203 pounds, and he swings the bat so fast and powerfully it almost looks like he’s using an illegally light bat (he’s not, at least I don’t think he is ha). The ball explodes off it on contact. The swing and hard hit ability are so impressive that I get shades of Bryce Harper when watching him (obviously not a direct comp). He obliterated the SEC from the second he stepped on campus as a freshman, and he kept on improving through his junior year, slashing .380/.498/.689 with 58 homers, 23 steals, and a 146/152 K/BB in 196 career games. His floor feels like a 30+ homer bat without the best BA or tons of steals, and the ceiling might look something like the aforementioned Bryce Harper. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 103/33/108/.278/.367/.531/14″

8) Wyatt Langford TEX, OF, 21.7 – Ranked 2nd on my Top 50 2024 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon): “If you miss out on Crews, Langford not only isn’t a bad consolation prize, but he has a legit case to be taken over Crews.  He might actually have half a tick more power and speed than Crews, and he’s even more built up at 6’1”, 225 pounds. He used that tremendously powerful and athletic frame to destroy the SEC over the past 2 seasons, slashing .363/.471/.746 with 47 homers, 16 steals, and a 89/92 K/BB in 134 career games. Crews strikes me as a bit looser and more of a natural athlete to my eye, and his bat speed and swing just look next level to me, so I would still pick him first, but I would be happy as a clam to sit at #2 and take whichever bat fell to me. He was selected 4th overall. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 95/34/105/.271/.355/.523/16″

9) Paul Skenes PIT, RHP, 21.1 – Ranked 3rd on my Top 50 2024 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon): “Selected 1st overall, Skenes immediately becomes the top pitching prospect in baseball who has yet to debut in the majors. If your offense is already stacked, and you are struggling to build up your pitching, I wouldn’t blame you for going Skenes over Crews and Langford, because Skenes is a generational pitching talent. His season was nothing short of jaw dropping with a pitching line of 1.69/0.75/209/20 in 122.2 IP in the SEC. His fastball sits in the upper 90’s and routinely hits over 100 MPH. His slider is elite, and while he didn’t go to his changeup as much, that pitch is also nasty. He also displayed plus control of his entire arsenal. He’s 6’6”, 235 pounds with a relatively athletic delivery and he’s a good athlete in general as evidenced by the fact he is also an excellent hitter. He had a career 1.121 OPS in 119 games in the Mountain West before transferring into the SEC. He’s as can’t miss as a pitcher can get. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 16/3.12/1.02/250 in 200 IP”

10) (17) (15) (13) (34) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 20.10 – He’s been a homer machine since returning from a wrist injury with 6 homers in 26 games at Double-A. The homer uptick is the last thing we needed to see with his mature plate approach and plus speed

11) (13) (14) (41) (30) Noelvi Marte CIN, SS, 21.8 – Called up to Triple-A and isn’t having any issues with a 112 wRC+, 1 homer, 3 steals, and a 19.5% K% in 17 games. He’s shaping up to be an above average contributor in every category

12) (42) (48) (119) (80) Everson Pereira NYY, OF, 22.3 – Called up to Triple-A and is rolling with 4 homers and a 23.7% K% in 13 games. He has a 92.9 MPH EV at the level. He’s in position for a call up with the Yanks scuffling offense, and he can make a legit fantasy impact if he does get the call

13) (14) (16) (15) (10) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.6 – I’m going to keep buying a 20 year old at Double-A who is showing off a nasty power (12 homers)/speed (25 steals)/OBP (.348 OBP) combo. Don’t expect a high BA though with a .219 BA and 27.1% K%

14) Max Clark DET, OF, 18.6 – Ranked 4th on my Top 50 2024 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon): Clark is the 2023 draft version of Pete Crow Armstrong and Corbin Carroll, two guys who I was the high man on in their first year player draft class, although Clark actually got the respect he deserved by getting selected 3rd overall. Maybe the success of those aforementioned players paved the way for a guy like Clark to get valued correctly. As you can tell from the comps, double plus speed with a plus hit tool and developing power is what you are buying. He’s a pretty thick and muscular 6’1”, 190 pounds, so I don’t think you have to squint too hard to see legitimate power developing down the line, even if he’s more a line drive hitter currently. 5×5 BA leagues are going to be his bread and butter, but like Carroll, he can be a beast regardless of league type. He has elite dynasty asset upside. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 93/18/72/.288/.346/.435/39

15) (20) (19) (31) (31) Marcelo Mayer BOS, SS, 20.7 – .221 BABIP is the only issue at Double-A. He was the Walker Jenkins of his draft class …

16) Walker Jenkins MIN, OF, 18.4 – Ranked 5th on my Top 50 2024 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon): Selected 5th overall, the 6’3”, 215 pounds Jenkins has that sweet lefty swing that just oozes offensive potential. It’s athletic, quick, under control, powerful, smooth … I can go on and on. It’s hard to watch this guy hit and not completely fall in love. It has the potential for plus hit and plus power at peak, and he’s also a good athlete with above average run times. It’s the type of profile that can be an elite dynasty asset a la Kyle Tucker. If your dynasty league leans more towards power than speed, I can see scooping Jenkins over Clark. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 89/30/97/.270/.340/.514/14

17) (16) (13) (12) (16) Ricky Tiedemann TOR, LHP, 20.11 – Returned from biceps inflammation and looked healthy in his first rehab outing in rookie ball, going 2 perfect innings with 3 K’s. Injury risk is just part of the equation when you deal in pitching prospects

18) (NA) (27) (128) (328) AJ Smith-Shawver ATL, RHP, 20.5 – Sent back down to Triple-A after a solid MLB debut. The fact he even made it to the majors is incredible considering how fast he flew through the minors at only 20 years old

19) (30) (29) (49) (36) Tink Hence STL, RHP, 20.11 – Got called up to Double-A and has a 1.80 ERA with a 18%/6.6% K%/BB% in 15 IP, going 5 IP in each outing. The stuff is fire, he is starting to go deeper into games, and now he’s performing in the upper minors

20) (26) (31) (77) (247) Heston Kjerstad BAL, OF, 24.5 – One of the premier hit/power prospects in the minors with a .344 BA and 5 homers in 33 games at Triple-A

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)