Xavier Isaac – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on August 6, 2024August 9, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Top 327 August 2024 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings (Patreon)

The trade deadline has passed. The 2024 MLB Draft is in the books. And that means it’s time to update the Top 300+ Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings over on the Patreon. Top 23 free here on the Brick Wall. Any player currently in the majors is ineligible for this list. So if you’re in the minors and have under 130 AB or 50 IP, you are eligible. As usual, I go over 300 deep with blurbs for every player. Here is the Top 327 August 2024 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-AUGUST TOP 327 PROSPECTS RANKS
-MID-SEASON TOP 422 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (7/12/24)
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS (7/19/24)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JULY MAILBAG! (7/31/24)
-TOP 11 MID-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS (6/25/24)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

*Previous Rankings are in parenthesis

**Any player currently in the majors is ineligible

1) (2) (NA) (8) Jasson Dominguez – NYY, OF, 21.6 – Alex Verdugo has a 87 wRC+ and isn’t a particularly good defensive player. It’s getting mighty close to that time for The Martian to invade New York again, and we saw what happened the last time he invaded New York with 4 bombs in just 8 games. His combination of upside and proximity is hard to match. He deserves the #1 spot on these rankings with all of prospects in the major leagues being ineligible for this list.

2) (5) (NA) (4) Junior Caminero – TBR, 3B/SS, 21.1 – Caminero is a close 2nd to Dominguez in terms of upside and proximity. But he doesn’t steal bases (1 steal in 48 games), and it sure feels like Tampa is ready to manipulate the hell out of his service time

3) (12) (10) (14) Roman Anthony – BOS, OF, 20.3 – The game power and stolen base speed have arrived at Double-A with 10 homers and 10 steals in his last 38 games. There is still some low launch (46.1% GB%) and high K (25.9% K%) in his game, but that feels like nitpicking for a barely 20 year old kid with a 134 wRC+ in the upper minors.

4) (8) (3) (19) Matt Shaw – CHC, 3B, 22.9 – Earned a callup to Triple-A by obliterating Double-A over his last 46 games, slashing .333/.400/.582 with 11 homers, 15 steals, and a 13.6%/9.7% K%/BB%. The Paredes trade complicated his path to playing time, but I’m trusting it to get sorted one way or another by 2025. Shaw still feels underrated to me

5) (9) (4) (25) Emmanuel Rodriguez – MIN, OF, 21.5 – A thumb injury from sliding into 2nd base put an abrupt halt to Rodriguez’ massive season at Double-A (201 wRC+ in 37 games). Even my 9 year old nephew uses one of those huge sliding mitts when on the bases (it’s kinda hilarious). Come on EmRod. It doesn’t change how much I love him with a monster OBP/power/speed combo, but it’s definitely annoying

6) (15) (15) (58) Carson Williams – TBR, SS, 21.1 – The hit tool concerns aren’t completely out of the woods with a 27% K% and .255 BA, but the age to level, power (14 homers), speed (28 steals), and glove more than make up for that. Plus, the K rate is actually improved from what he did in the lower minors. The Rays starting SS job is waiting for him

7) (FYPD-1) Charlie Condon – COL, 3B/1B/OF, 21.4 – Ranked 1st overall on the 2025 Top 57 FYPD Rankings (Patreon), writing, “I was all set to have Bazzana #1 on my FYPD Board, but with Condon going to Coors with the 3rd overall pick in the draft, it rattled my whole game plan. How can you pass up on a massive human being, with massive numbers, in the best conference in college baseball, going to the best ballpark in the majors, which just so happens to juice up the only slight quibble in his profile? The answer is, you can’t. Or at least I can’t. Condon has to be the top dog now. He’s 6’6”, 215 pounds and he swings the bat like it’s a literal twig. He ripped 37 homers in 60 games in the SEC this year and has 62 homers in 116 career games in the SEC. The power is near elite (I say near elite, because Jac has more power). He improved both his contact rates and plate approach this year with a 13.5%/18.8% K%/BB%, and like I alluded to, Coors Field juices up batting average the most. Coors is actually slightly below average for homers in 2024, but with 6’6” baseball players, it’s always the BA you have to watch out for, so this landing spot is perfect. He’s not going to steal many bases, but he’s a good athlete, and he should be able to nab a handful. If your team really needs the stolen bases, I can maybe see going Bazzana one, but all things being equal, there is just too much offense upside in that hitting environment to pass up on Condon in the top spot. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 99/34/107/.276/.357/.529/6″

8) (FYPD-2) Travis Bazzana – CLE, 2B, 21.11 – Ranked 2nd overall on the 2025 Top 57 FYPD Rankings (Patreon), writing, “Selected 1st overall, Bazzana looks like a tightly wound ball of kinetic energy that is just ready to explode in the box (I think ball of “Potential” energy is actually the correct scientific term, but I felt like “Kinetic” just hit harder 🙂 … There is toe tapping and bat wiggling before he absolutely uncoils on the baseball, jacking 28 homers in 60 games in the Pac 12 this year, and also smoking 6 homers with a 1.037 OPS in the wood bat cape cod league in 2023. He’s “only” 6 feet tall, but there is easy plus power in here at the least. He combines the plus power with a near elite plate approach/hit tool (12.5%/25.7% K%/BB%), and speed (16 steals). He’s the total offensive package, and there is a reason he got taken #1 overall by a very smart franchise despite limited defensive value. The only thing that can stop him seems to be his parents. His parents almost ended his career before it started when celebrating. His dad tried to rip his arm out of his socket, and then his mom put him in some kind of neck hold into a tripping maneuver. Travis almost looked like he was about to square up with his mom for a second there. I guess they do things differently Down Under in Australia. Either way, he survived, and if you want to give Bazzana the edge over Condon because of steals, I wouldn’t blame you. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 100/25/91/.287/.366/.481/23″

9) (14) (18) (64) Noah Schultz – CHW, LHP, 21.0 – He’s yet to throw more than 4 IP in any outing of his career and he only has 65.2 IP on the season. Workload is the only thing to nitpick here, because everything else is straight elite with a 1.64 ERA and 29.6%/6.6% K%/BB% in 38.1 IP at Double-A. Schultz was my top pitcher target in his FYPD class, and he’s arrived

10) (10) (9) (10) Dylan Crews – WAS, OF, 22.4 – Just when we were ready to put the rough 2023 Double-A debut behind us, he went out and looked mighty mediocre when he got the call to Triple-A with a 87 wRC+ in 34 games. But the individual components look better with a 17.1%/9.1% K%/BB%, 4 homers, and 5 steals. He’s looking more like an above average across the board contributor rather than a true star right now though

11) (11) (11) (27) Samuel Basallo – BAL, C/1B, 19.11 – You couldn’t pry Basallo away from Baltimore’s cold dead hands at the deadline, and for good reason, as he’s still 19 years old with 15 homers, a 127 wRC+ and 20.9%/8.9% K%/BB% in 88 games at Double-A. At 6’4”, he has future beast written all over him

12) (72) (58) (88) Leodalis De Vries – SDP, SS, 17.9 – The explosion is on, slashing .274/.397/.573 with 9 homers, 6 steals, and 22%/14.9% K%/BB% in his last 29 games. He now has a well above average 110 wRC+ in 64 games at Single-A. He’s my favorite to be the #1 prospect in the game by this time next year

13) (23) (8) (12) Walker Jenkins – MIN, OF, 19.5 – Showed an elite plate approach at Single-A (11.3%/18.5% K%/BB% in 33 games), which is exciting because we know the big power is in there at 6’3”, 210 pounds. He hasn’t been as good since getting the call to High-A with a 61 wRC+ and 18.2%/9.2% K%/BB%, but obviously it’s too small of a sample to say anything

14) (7) (NA) (6) Jordan Lawlar – ARI, SS, 22.1 – Lawlar tore is shoulder swinging a bat. He broke his thumb fielding a grounder. And he suffered a major hamstring strain presumably when running. Swinging a bat, fielding grounders, and running is basically the job, and getting majorly injured so often while doing these routine things makes it appropriate to slap the dreaded “injury prone” label on him. I still love him, but the injuries are piling up

15) (13) (6) (15) Jackson Jobe – DET, RHP, 22.0 – The elite control from 2023 has vanished with a 14.5% BB% in 42.1 IP at Double-A. He went from Maddux to Misiorowski. But he’s still dominating with a 1.91 ERA and 30.6% K%, and I don’t believe that walk rate is his true talent. Not budging on him

16) (FYPD-3) Jac Caglionone – KCR, 1B/LHP, 21.6 – Ranked 3rd overall on the 2025 Top 57 FYPD Rankings (Patreon), writing, “Selected 6th overall, Caglionone is a giant human being at 6’5”, 250 pounds. Condon may have an extra inch on him, but he can’t even come close to Caglinone’s sheer mass. And it’s not Dan Vogelbach mass, it’s elite NFL TE type mass and athleticism. This is what truly elite power looks like, and he has no trouble getting to that power with 75 homers in 165 career games in the SEC. He also pitches with a fastball that can reach the upper 90’s to give you an idea of the type of athlete we are talking about, even if his future is almost certainly with the bat. The plate approach and hit tool were questions coming into the year, but he massively improved in those areas this year with a 8.2%/18.4% K%/BB% (18.2%/5.3% in 2023). The biggest knock on his profile is the very high chase rate, making him riskier than the other top bats in his class, but let me make a counter argument to that for a second. One, basically every hitter with an extremely high walk rate and low chase got criticized for not swinging enough, namely Kurtz. Jac is getting criticized for swinging too much. You can’t win. Two, if I was a pitcher, I wouldn’t want to give this guy anything to hit either. Sure, he chased, but not to his detriment. He did a ton of damage (.419 BA with a 1.419 OPS) and made a ton of contact. Three, there is something to be said about Jac proving he can hit very tough pitches that are out of the zone. It goes without saying that pro pitching and MLB pitching is much, much, much tougher than college pitching. You are going to have to hit tough pitches. You can’t always wait for a perfect pitch. Jac has proven he can do that. Maybe that’s just the lawyer in me to feel the pull to argue for a clear negative, ha, but it sounded good, right? I feel like there’s something to it, and on pure upside, Jac very well might be the top guy in the class. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 94/37/109/.261/.342/.524/8″

17) (FYPD-4) JJ Wetherholt – STL, 2B, 21.11 – Ranked 4th overall on the 2025 Top 57 FYPD Rankings (Patreon), writing, “Selected 7th overall, Wetherholt slid in the draft a bit after getting a lot of #1 overall buzz. Maybe it was the injuries, missing about half of the season with a hamstring injury and still not being fully healthy when he returned. It was his 2nd major hamstring injury within the year. It could also be that he is on the small side at 5’10”, and doesn’t have quite the raw power of the other top college hitters in the draft. Don’t get me wrong, he definitely has plenty of power, but about a 16 homer pace is not that impressive when everyone else is hitting 30. Or maybe it’s that he didn’t face the toughest competition in the Big 12. What he does better than maybe anyone else in the draft though is hit. He put up a 10.4%/18.3% K%/BB% in 2024 and had a 8.2% K% in 2023. He’s a complete hitter who uses the entire field with a quick and simple lefty swing. He also rocks the little man leg kick which I love, ensuring he will get the most out of his very good raw power. Tack on plus speed (57 steals in 145 career games), and you have a damn enticing fantasy player even if his power upside doesn’t quite match some of the other bats in the class. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 97/21/82/.290/.357/.462/26″

18) (19) (32) (41) Xavier Isaac – TBR, 1B, 20.8 – Called up to Double-A and went lefty on lefty for his first homer at the level in his 3rd game. The power is no joke, but the hit tool has some risk with a 30% K% at High-A and 42.9% K% in 3 games at Double-A

19) (18) (24) (48) Marcelo Mayer – BOS, SS, 21.8 – 140 wRC+ in 77 games at Double-A, but how big the power/speed combo will end up is still a question. He has only 8 homers with a 47.4% GB%, and he’s not a burner despite a solid 13 steals. He might end up more solid than standout in the majors, but at only 21, there is plenty of development time left to go.

20) (22) (55) (83) Josue De Paula – LAD, OF, 19.2 – Everything is translating to High-A except for the BABIP (.236). De Vries, Jenkins, De Paula and my next guy, Walcott, is going to be a super fun 1, 2. 3, 4 one day atop the prospects rankings

21) (33) (30) (33) Sebastian Walcott – TEX, SS, 18.6 – Destroying High-A for awhile now, slashing .301/.356/.534 with 7 homers, 9 steals, and a 24.7%/7.7% in his last 45 games. That’s insanely impressive for an 18 year old, and the tools are elite at 6’4”

22) (27) (17) (36) Andrew Painter – PHI, RHP, 21.2 – Painter underwent Tommy John surgery in late July 2023, which will keep him out for all of 2024. He has the type of elite upside to take the Tommy John discount on, but I do think you have to factor some risk in

23) (FYPD-5) Chase Burns – CIN, RHP, 21.7 – Ranked 5th overall on the 2025 Top 57 FYPD Rankings (Patreon), writing, “Selected 2nd overall, dynasty managers owe a huge debt of gratitude to Cincinnati for going Burns over Condon. It would have made me legitimately sad to see Burns going to the Rockies. I know Cincinnati is no cake walk for pitchers themselves, but they just have a small ballpark, they don’t have different air. And we’ve seen plenty of pitchers have excellent seasons in Cincy (Castillo, Gray, Greene, Lodolo), so I wouldn’t let this landing spot move you off Burns at all. He has legit ace upside at a strong 6’3”, 210 pounds with a double plus fastball that sits in the upper 90’s and a double plus slider that put up elite whiff rates. It led to a 2.70 ERA with a ridiculous 48.8%/7.7% K%/BB% in 100 IP in the ACC. He’s inevitably going to get compared to Skenes, and Skenes put up a 1.69 ERA with a 45.2%/4.3% K%/BB% in 122.2 IP in the SEC. Skenes was in the tougher conference (although Burns pitched well in the SEC in 2022-23 before transferring to the ACC) with a better ERA, better walk rate and more IP. Burns isn’t as good as Skenes, but not many are better than Skenes, so that isn’t much of a knock. Burns also throws a curve and changeup to give him a legit starters pitch mix, and how well he can develop those pitches could dictate whether he becomes a true ace or a high K, #2/3 type. If your dynasty team is stacked with hitting, I don’t think taking Burns #1 overall should be ruled out. The teams that took Skenes over Langford and Crews in 2024 aren’t complaining too much right now. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 15/3.23/1.08/245 in 190 IP”

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-AUGUST TOP 300+ PROSPECTS RANKS
-MID-SEASON TOP 422 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (7/12/24)
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS (7/19/24)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JULY MAILBAG! (7/31/24)
-TOP 11 MID-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS (6/25/24)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on June 11, 2024June 15, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Top 305 June 2024 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings (Patreon)

May’s update was all about the pure prospects. Any MLB taint disqualified you from the list. But I swung it back in the other direction for this month’s update because I just felt like it would be more interesting to see where the new popups fit in with the old guard. I’m unpredictable like that. So keep in mind that the previous month’s rankings are not a direct comparison with this month. It might look like guys dropped, but really it’s just because players were added into the rankings who were ineligible last month. Top 20 free here on the Brick Wall. Blurbs for every player. Here is the Top 3005 June 2024 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-MAY TOP 414 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (5/24/24)
-JUNE TOP 300+ PROSPECTS RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAY MAILBAG! (5/30/24)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

*Previous Rankings are in parenthesis (May’s Non-Debuted Pure Prospects Rankings) (Off-Season Rankings)

1) (2) (16) Paul Skenes – PIT, RHP, 21.11 – Mercury must be in retrograde or something, because I never thought I would see the day when I ranked a pitcher as the top prospect in baseball, but that day is today. Skenes jumped up to the majors and immediately overwhelmed MLB hitters with a 3.00 ERA and 35.5%/5.6% K%/BB% in 27 IP. He’s not only my top prospect in the game, he’s my top dynasty pitcher in the game, ranking 19th overall on my latest Top 414 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon).

2) (NA) (8) Jasson Dominguez – NYY, OF, 21.4 – You know what Dominguez doesn’t have in common with Holliday and Caminero? His MLB debut was actually electric with 4 homers in 8 games, and now that he’s back from Tommy John surgery, it’s like he never left with 6 homers in 15 upper minors games. Maybe the hit tool is still a bit riskier, but he more than makes up for that with upside due to how much he loves to run. Dominguez is my #1 hitting prospect in baseball.

3) (1) (9) James Wood – WAS, OF, 21.9 – Wood’s strikeout rate is better than both Holliday and Caminero’s at Triple-A. We saw Holliday’s K rate skyrocket in his MLB debut, and Wood’s plate approach is superior to Caminero’s. We’ve seen both Holliday and Caminero struggle in their MLB debuts. He runs more than both Holliday and Caminero. He hits the ball harder than both Holliday and Caminero. I can’t guarantee that Wood ends up better than Holliday and Caminero, and at his height, he most probably does have more hit tool risk, but I don’t think either can match Wood’s upside, and judging based only on 2024, his hit tool is more than holding his own vs. those guys. I’m a glutton for upside, and there might not be a prospect in baseball with more upside than Wood.

4) (NA) (2) Jackson Holliday – BAL, SS, 20.6 – If the terrible MLB debut never happened, we would all be losing our minds on what a travesty it is that Jackson Holliday and his 140 wRC+ is still at Triple-A. With all the extremely aggressive assignments throughout all levels of professional baseball, and the mostly lackluster results, it feels like the pendulum has swung too far in the other extreme. How about some middle ground. “Everything in moderation, even moderation.”

5) (NA) (4) Junior Caminero – TBR, 3B/SS, 20.11 – Caminero’s 106 wRC+ in 34 games at Triple-A isn’t super impressive, but he’s still crushing the ball (92.4 MPH EV), ripping homers (8 homers), and showing a decent plate approach (22.9%/9.2% K%/BB%). And he’s still only 20. He’s still on track to reach his righty Devers comp.

6) (NA) (11) Noelvi Marte – CIN, 3B, 22.8 – I think there is a case to put Marte over Holliday and Caminero as well due to his much superior MLB debut, but let’s get a looksie on him post PED suspension before getting ahead of ourselves. Maybe he was cheating.

7) (NA) (6) Jordan Lawlar – ARI, SS, 21.10 – Lawlar started a rehab assignment in rookie ball coming off thumb surgery. Nobody has staked claim to Arizona’s SS job in his absence, and while Perdomo is on the comeback trail as well, I just don’t think he has the bat to hold the job. Lawlar should get his shot at some point in the 2nd half

8) (3) (19) Matt Shaw – CHC, 3B, 22.8 – He hasn’t blown the doors off at Double-A, but he’s proving his big 2023 pro debut was no fluke with 6 homers, 15 steals, and a 21.4%/14.4% K%/BB% in 54 games at Double-A.

9) (4) (25) Emmanuel Rodriguez – MIN, OF, 21.3 – There are a lot of really good prospects not putting up eye popping numbers at Double-A, but Baby Bonds isn’t one of them with a 199 wRC+ in 37 games. In OBP leagues, there is a case for him to be the #1 hitting prospect in the game with a 25.1% BB%

10) (9) (10) Dylan Crews – WAS, OF, 22.2 – The disaster start is behind him, but this still isn’t the light the world on fire bat we hoped we would be getting

11) (11) (27) Samuel Basallo – BAL, C/1B, 19.10 – 1.099 OPS in his last 20 games. Looks like Basallo has figured out the upper minors, and he’s still 19 years old

12) (10) (14) Roman Anthony – BOS, OF, 20.1 – A 138 wRC+ as a barely 20 year old at Double-A is impressive even if the numbers aren’t off the charts

13) (6) (15) Jackson Jobe – DET, RHP, 21.9 – He was just getting back to his dominant self in his last 3 outings with a 16/3 K/BB in 11 IP at Double-A, but a hamstring strain landed him on the IL since May 1st

14) (18) (64) Noah Schultz – CHW, LHP, 20.9 – Insane dominance has transferred to the upper minors with a 0.77 ERA and 35%/0% K%/BB% in 11.2 IP. There is little doubt that this guy is going to be an ace if he stays healthy

15) (15) (58) Carson Williams – TBR, SS, 20.11 – 27.9% K% shows there is still hit tool risk, but as a 20 year old in the upper minors, that actually isn’t too bad, and he’s dominating regardless with a 161 wRC+. Tack on a plus SS glove which should give him a long leash, and this is a no doubt elite prospect

16) (NA) (13) Pete Crow-Armstrong – CHC, OF, 22.2 – PCA is locking in that his speed and baserunning ability are truly elite with a 30 ft/sec sprint and a perfect 7 for 7 mark on the bases, and he’s also showing much better contact rates than his first go around with a 23% K%, but he’s yet to prove he can hit the ball hard enough to truly make an impact with a 86.7 MPH EV. It sat 87.9 MPH with a 110.6 MPH MAX at Triple-A, so there is more in the tank right now, and I definitely think there is more in the tank in the future. I’m not moving off PCA

17) (7) (23) Coby Mayo – BAL, 1B/3B, 22.6 – Out since May 16th with a fractured rib. He’s on a beeline to be on the best power hitters in the game when he gets healthy again

18) (24) (48) Marcelo Mayer – BOS, SS, 21.8 – Here is what I wrote about Mayer this off-season in his Top 1,000 blurb: “Mayer feels like he’s getting a bit of the treatment Noelvi Marte got last year. He was on a beeline for elite prospect status until there was an abrupt, general cooling on him throughout the industry, but like with Marte, I’m not sure it’s warranted.” … and like Marte, he came out swinging the next season, slashing .300/.370/.486 with 6 homers, 12 steals, and a 20.2%/9.7% K%/BB% in 54 games at Double-A . Hopefully unlike Marte, he isn’t on PED’s

19) (32) (41) Xavier Isaac – TBR, 1B, 20.6 – 27.6 K% in 51 games at High-A means we have to recalibrate his hit tool expectations a bit, but on the flip side, we can do the same about his stolen base expectations with 13 steals. And the power is unquestioned with 12 homers

20) (5) (18) Spencer Jones – NYY, OF, 23.1 – He might finally be finding his groove at Double-A with 4 homers, 2 steals, and a 1.052 OPS in his last 9 games, although it still comes with a 12/2 K/BB. I’m going to keep betting on the huge talent, even if the hit tool isn’t where it needs to be right now with a 34.1% K%

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on July 19, 2023July 28, 2023 by Michael Halpern

The Wednesday Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/19/23)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays (and I guess Wednesdays sometimes when I get jammed up, ha) throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Wednesday Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/19/23):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 473 JULY DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 331 JUNE DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (7/14/23)
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (6/29/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JUNE MAILBAG! (6/27/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

*I was on an extended weekend family trip on Monday and Tuesday that I thought I was going to be able to write during but it turned out I couldn’t. My bad.

Francisco Alvarez NYM, C, 21.7 – When I ranked Alvarez 92nd overall on the Updated July Top 473 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon), he was in the midst of slumping, but I didn’t let it scare me off him, and he’s been molten hot since. He went 2 for 3 with a 108.6 MPH homer off Lucas Gioltio and a 106.5 MPH homer of Tanner Banks. It was his 18th and 19th homers of the year in 69 games, and he now has a 7 homers with a 1.363 OPS in 11 July games. He leads all catchers in the homer category and he’s done it in far less at bats. This is just the beginning.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand CIN, 1B/3B, 23.6 – That unsurprisingly didn’t take long. Strand walloped his first MLB homer in his 2nd game with a 426 foot, 105.8 MPH bomb. How could anyone have guessed a guy who hit 20 homers with a .331 BA in 67 games at Triple-A would be good? Maybe it was that extra month or two at Triple-A that really put the finishing touches on him 😉

Bryce Elder ATL, RHP, 24.0 – In the easiest regression call of all time, Elder had his 2nd clunker in a row, going 6 IP with 12 ER and a 4/5 K/BB (5 ER in 2.2 IP last night). This is why I just never really bought into him, and while he can still be a decent fantasy starter, his 4.12 xERA has always been more indicative of his true talent level.

Lazaro Montes SEA, OF, 18.8 – Montes is officially going full breakout after cracking 2 homers yesterday and 3 homers in his last 2 games at stateside rookie ball. He’s improved on his danger zone K% of 33.2% in 2022, bringing it down to a not horrific 27.9% this year, and he’s still walking a ton with a 23.1% BB%. It’s all added up to a 145 wRC+ in 26 games. He’s right on track to become an elite power hitting prospect.

Sebastian Walcott TEX, SS, 17.3 – 3 for 4 with a double, and most importantly, he didn’t strike out once. The strikeouts are the only blemish on his profile with a 29%/4.3% K%/BB% in 15 games in stateside rookie ball, but considering he’s still only 17 years old, and his otherwise insane production (6 homers, 6 steals, and a 181 wRC+) it is very easy to overlook. He was my #1 international prospect target, hyping him hard (with a side of Joendry Vargas who is also killing it in the DSL right now) in my First Year Player Draft Target and Strategy Guide (Patreon) all the way back on January 5th, writing, “Sebastian Walcott TEX, SS, 17.1/ Joendry Vargas LAD, SS, 17.5 – I love searching for that relatively underrated international prospect. The guy who isn’t getting hyped up at the very top of the class but I think should be. It was Alexander Ramirez for me in 2020 (big hit), Maikol Hernandez in 2021 (oof), Lazaro Montes in 2022 (looking good), and in 2023, it’s Sabastian Walcott. This dude looks like a next level athlete in the sparse Youtube videos out there. It’s what made me fall in love so much with Ramirez and Montes, and that was worked out for me. Walcott even stands out relative to the other elite athletes in his class. Vargas is getting some more rankings love than Walcott, but still isn’t really talked about like the very top guys yet. He’s also a good international target.” Walcott started to get a lot more love later in the off-season, but you were already all over him early if you read my stuff.

Xavier Isaac TBR, 1B, 19.6 – Isaac has continued to quietly establish himself as a future elite hitting prospect. He demolished a 440 foot no doubter yesterday for his 3rd in 4 games and his 9th in 64 games. The GB% continues to come down to a reasonable 46.4%, and he has an excellent plate approach with a 19.9%/14.7% K%/BB%. It’s all led to a 141 wRC+. He rose to 68th overall on the June Top Top 331 Prospects Rankings (Patreon), and he’ll take another big jump in the Updated July Prospects Rankings coming next week.

Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.4 – The Southern League is in the post pre-tacked ball era, and Chourio is loving every minute of it, smoking an opposite field homer yesterday and is now 10 for 18 with 2 doubles, 2 homers and a 1/1 K/BB in 4 games with the normal ball. He’s basically picked right up from the destruction he laid last year. I wouldn’t say we should completely throw out the first half stats of all players in the Southern League, but it’s going to be mighty interesting to see the difference from the 1st half to the 2nd half. I didn’t budge off Chourio with his good, but not explosive 1st half, and now he’s exploding all over again.

Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.6 – Dominguez is getting hot again. He went deep for the 2nd time in 3 games and now has a .934 OPS with 7 steals and a 14/8 K/BB in 13 July games. It think the backlash against Dominguez’ ridiuclous hype as a 17 year old has made him underrated over the past couple years. He’s a 20 year old at Double-A with a 108 wRC+ and a nasty power/speed combo (12 homers and 25 steals in 80 games).

Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 21.3 – My #6 ranked prospect on the June Top 331 Rankings, Armstrong has been an extra base machine since returning from the break. He smushed his 11th homer in 64 games at Double-A yesterday and now has 3 doubles, 1 triple, and 1 homer in his last 14 AB. The power explosion is exciting considering his speed (23 steals) and defense, and while the 24%/7.7% K%/BB% isn’t great, it’s not bad either. I’m all in on Armstrong and have been since his draft year.

Evan Carter TEX, OF, 20.10 – What lack of power? Carter deposited his 10th homer of the season right in the lazy river. He’s been on fire since returning from injury, slashing .354/.426/.622 with 5 homers, 2 steals (in 6 attempts) and a 18/10 K/BB in 21 games. The only real blemish on his season is a terrible stolen base success rate (11 for 18), but I think we can overlook that with the power uptick and great plate approach.

Emmanuel Rodriguez MIN, OF, 20.4 – It’s been an up and down season for Baby Bonds, and we’re now back on the upswing with his first homer since June 23rd. He has a .914 OPS in his last 6 games after going 0 for 22 in the 8 games before that. That is a microcosm of his entire season, but a 131 wRC+ with 11 homers and 11 steals in 60 games at High-A ain’t too shabby at all. The 31.8% K% and .214 BA prevents a true explosion to elite prospect status, but his value has at least held steady this year.

Ceddanne Rafaela BOS, OF, 22.3 – All Rafaela has done at Triple-A is hit dingers, and I mean that in both a good and bad way. He smoked his 5th homer in 15 games at the level, but it comes with a 25%/1.5% K%/BB%. The extremely low walk rates are a bit concerning, but he makes up for it with plus speed and plus defense. The profile isn’t that far off from Pete Crow, and he’s now knocking on the door of the bigs.

Jett Williams NYM, SS, 19.8 – Jett may be only 5’6”, but he’s starting to look pretty thick (in a good way), and he’s proving he has enough juice in his bat to make a legit impact. He launched his 5th homer in 70 games at Single-A yesterday and it comes with 29 steals and a 20.6%/19.6% K%/BB%. He only has a .243 BA because the GB% is probably a little too low for his type of profile with a 35.2% GB%, but that is a much easier fix than trying to learn how to lift the ball more. It’s a damn exciting fantasy profile and he is very easily a top 100 fantasy prospect.

Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 22.1 – Jones crushed his 11th homer in 72 games off a pretty nice looking curve that caught too much of the plate. We already know about the power and speed, and his plate approach has looked much better of late with a 24.3%/14.8% K%/BB% in his last 31 games. I would say he’s conquered High-A at this point and is just waiting for his next challenge in the upper minors.

Tyler Black MIL, 2B, 22.11 – Black was one of my first buy calls of the season, and he’s went on to just continue crushing the upper minors all year. He went 4 for 6 with a frozen rope homer yesterday and is now slashing .282/.427/.524 with 13 homers, 42 steals, and a 20.3%/16.8% K%/BB% in 70 games at Double-A. Call me crazy, but I think he’s ready for Triple-A.

Coby Mayo BAL, 3B, 21.6/Orelvis Martinez TOR, SS, 21.6 – Another day, another dinger. Mayo and Orelvis both went deep again, and it was both of their 18th homers. It was also both of their first homers at Triple-A after recently getting called up to the level. I prefer Mayo, but they are both elite power hitting prospects.

Christian Scott NYM, RHP, 24.1 – 7 IP, 6 hits, 2 ER, 8/0 K/BB at Double-A. Scott transitioned into a full time starter role after being mostly used out of the pen in his career, and he’s taken to it well with a 3.22 ERA and 28.8%/5% K%/BB% in 36.1 IP at Double-A. He’s a big dude at 6’4”, 215 pounds and the stuff is very good with a mid 90’s fastball and plus slider. He might still end up in the pen when it’s all said and done, but there is definitely mid rotation upside and he’s definitely an exciting pop up pitching prospect.

Ty Madden DET, RHP, 23.4 – 4.2 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 8/2 K/BB at Double-A. Madden has always felt a bit underrated to me. He has the size (6’3”, 215), velocity (mid 90’s heat), diverse pitch mix (fastball, slider, curve, change), and production (3.68 ERA with a 27.1%/9.5% K%/BB%) to make a legit fantasy impact. He’s not a bad low key target if you are struggling to acquire pitching as he’s also close to the bigs.

Logan Allen CLE, LHP, 24.11 – Allen is back in the majors and it didn’t take long for him to re-establish himself, going 5 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 8/1 K/BB vs. Pitt. The changeup was a whiff machine with a 50% whiff% and it led to a 29% whiff% on the day. The stuff isn’t huge with a 90.4 MPH fastball in this one, and he’s not an elite control guy, which limits his upside, but the guy knows how to pitch and can miss bats. It’s a #4-ish starter profile.

Jordan Beck COL, OF, 22.2 – Beck got the call to Double-A post break and he had his first big day at the level, going 2 for 4 with a triple and a homer. He has a 115 wRC+ in 4 games but it comes with a 46.2%/0.0% K%/BB%. It’s still obviously too small of a sample to say anything in either direction, but the one thing to watch is that K%, because we know about the big talent at 6’3”, 225 pounds with a plus power/speed combo. He was one of my targets in my Top 9 Dynasty Baseball Targets (Patreon) from a few weeks ago.

Victor Scott STL, OF, 22.3 – Double-A hasn’t slowed Scott down at all. He lined his 2nd homer in 13 games and is now slashing .333/.377/.491 with 2 homers, 6 steals, and a 12.9%/4.8% K%/BB% in 13 games at the level. He rose to 233rd overall on the latest prospect rankings, and that is set to take another big jump next week. He’s legitimately exciting with a plus contact/speed profile.

Jud Fabian BAL, OF, 22.7 – Fabian smacked his 5th homer at 20 games since getting called up to Double-A, but unfortunately his hit tool has basically been a worst case scenario with a .171 BA and 37.6% K%. That is exactly what we didn’t want to see, but he’s made adjustments in the past, and we have to give him some time to make adjustments again against upper minors pitchers.

Ivan Melendez ARI, 1B, 23.7 – Melendez got the call to Double-A, and literally all he’s done is rip dingers. He cracked 2 homers yesterday and he now has 4 homers in 3 games at the level. He wasn’t too bad at High-A either with 18 homers in 58 games. He’s certainly made up for his lackluster debut in 2022, but he still isn’t without his warts with a 33.6%/8.2% K%/BB% (30.8%/7.7% K%/BB% at Double-A). It is a bit of a Quad-A type slugger profile, and he’s also hit lefties much better than righties. A low BA, part time power bat might be the most likely outcome, but he’s left little doubt that he will be able to mash homers at any level.

Alek Manoah TOR, RHP, 25.6 – 3 IP, 3 hits, 4 ER. 0/5 K/BB vs. SDP … oof, still brutal

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)