Tampa Bay Rays 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys and talk some team specific strategy for every team to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Tampa Bay Rays 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
–A Top 100 Sneak Peek of my 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings with more early releases coming all off-season
-Dynasty Team Reports for every team (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)
–Positional Dynasty Rankings
-End of Season 2021 Top 466 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
-End of Season 2021 Top 322 Dynasty Prospects Rankings

Hitters

Wander Franco TBR, SS, 21.1 – I ranked Franco 14th overall on my 2021 Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings, writing, “the floor is so high due to that innate hitting ability that he doesn’t have the normal risks associated with prospects.” Kelenic was my #2 overall prospect, but I ranked him 52nd on the dynasty list because he simply didn’t have that elite floor. And that is exactly how it played out in 2021 with Franco putting up a 12% K% en route to a solid MLB debut, slashing .288/.347/.463 with 7 homers and 2 steals in 70 games (he also knocked out 2 homers in 4 playoff games). The underlying skills are there for a homer/steal breakout as he notched a 28.5 ft/sec sprint speed, 88.2 MPH EV and 9.7 degree launch angle. The arrow is only pointing way up from here. 2022 Projection: 101/23/83/.302/.360/.484/11 Prime Projection: 116/31/111/.320/.392/.555/13

Brandon Lowe TBR, OF/2B, 27.9 – Lowe went bonkos in the 2nd half, slashing .289/.376/.638 with 26 homers and 3 steals in 80 games (.689 OPS in first 69 games). He brought his K% all the way down to 21.1% in 67 games post-break (32.2% in 82 games pre-break). The power was never in question, so if those K% gains are real, it takes Lowe to the next level. 2022 Projection: 89/36/95/.263/.355/.519/6

Randy Arozarena TBR, OF, 27.1 – Arozarena went 20/20 on the dot in 2021, but the underlying numbers are a mixed bag. He had a below average .302 xwOBA (.350 wOBA), 32.4% whiff%, and 7.6 degree launch angle. On the other hand, he had an above average exit velocity (89.9 MPH), BB% (9.3%) and sprint speed (28.8 ft/sec). If you can hit it hard, get on base, and run fast, good things generally happen. I’m more excited for the things he can do well than scared off by the things he doesn’t. 2022 Projection: 88/22/75/.268/.347/.462/17

Austin Meadows TBR, OF, 26.11 – As expected, Meadows bounced back from a Covid induced down 2020 with 27 homers and 106 RBI. He brought his K% down 12.3 percentage points to a career best 20.6%, but he still had a low .234 BA, partly because of bad luck (.249 BABIP) and partly because of a high launch angle (21.7 degrees) mixed with a low FB/LD exit velocity (91.9 MPH). Even in his down 2020, his FB/LD EV was 94.2 MPH, so I’m betting on that bouncing back. There is a Max Kepler-ish vibe that is starting to come from Meadows (and I still think Kepler can have that monster year!), so I’m not as high as I once was on him, but he has the plate approach and power skills to put up a truly big season. 2022 Projection: 82/30/95/.259/.338/.482/6

Pitchers

Shane McClanahan TBR, LHP, 24.11 – I love McClanahan as much as anyone. I’ve been touting him all year and put him in my July 1st, 10 Dynasty Baseball Players to Target article (he put up a 2.97 ERA with 80 strikeouts in 72.2 IP after that). But there is no denying that when batters did made contact, they hit him very hard with a 91.7 MPH EV against (bottom 2% of the league) and 45.7% Hardhit% (bottom 6% of league). Most of the damage comes off his 96.7 MPH fastball, and it brings back to mind helpless little league coaches who had nothing else to say but, “the harder it comes in, the farther it goes out,” as some over grown 12 year old blows like 80 MPH fastballs passed everyone. Those hard hit numbers are the reason for the disparity between his 4.57 xERA and 3.23 xFIP. So which xStat will prevail? I’m betting on it landing somewhere in the middle, leaning more toward xFIP because his ability to miss bats (32% whiff%) and throw the ball over the plate (7.2% BB%) are more important skills to me. 2022 Projection: 12/3.67/1.25/178 in 160 IP

Luis Patino TBR, RHP, 22.5 – Patino held his own as a 21 year old in the majors with a pitching line of 4.31/1.27/74/29 in 77.1 IP on the back of his plus fastball/slider combo. His strikeout and walk rates were about average, and he wasn’t able to develop his changeup very much throwing it only 5% of the time, so on the surface the year wasn’t very exciting, but taking age into account, this is him basically establishing his floor. Upside is still high, even if it might take him a couple years to hit it. 2022 Projection: 8/4.02/1.28/145 in 140 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.62/1.19/190 in 170 IP

Tampa Bay Rays Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects

1) Shane Baz TBR, RHP, 22.10 – Baz’ control took two huge steps forward, going from well below average to near elite with a 1.7% BB% at Double-A, 6.2% at Triple-A, and 6.1% in the majors. He sacrificed nothing to do it, throwing an elite 97 MPH fastball that put up 30.4% whiff%. He combines that with two plus breaking balls in his slider (40.7% whiff%) and curve (50% whiff%), while his changeup lags behind. He’s in a two man race with Grayson Rodriguez for the top pitching prospect in baseball. 2022 Projection: 9/3.78/1.20/148 in 130 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.35/1.07/220 in 187 IP

2) Vidal Brujan TBR, 2B/OF, 24.2 – Brujan couldn’t maintain his early season power surge of 7 homers in his first 16 games (12 homers in 103 games at Triple-A), but his power definitely took a step forward this year. He combines that uptick in power with an elite plate approach (15.4%/11.1% K%/BB%) and plus speed (44 for 52 on the bases). He played all over the field (2B, SS, 3B, OF), and Tampa loves to move guys around, so Brujan is setting up to be the ultimate multi-position eligibility player who will see the field almost everyday at peak. 2022 Projection: 48/7/39/.262/.326/.398/16 Prime Projection: 92/14/66/.283/.355/.423/30

3) Josh Lowe TBR, OF, 24.2 – Lowe blew up at Triple-A, slashing .291/.381/.535 with 22 homers, 26 steals (in 26 attempts), and a 26.2%/13% K%/BB% in 111 games. I’ve been high on him since his 2019 breakout because he is a premium athlete at 6’4”, 205 pounds with a plus power/speed combo and high walk rates. Even though his K% remained high, his hit tool took a step forward this year, which is the one thing that could hold him back. 2022 Projection: 23/7/21/.237/.310/.428/6 Prime Projection: 84/24/76/.256/.338/.467/16

4) Curtis Mead TBR, 3B, 21.5 – Mead has baseball bloodlines with his dad playing professional baseball in Australia. His swing reminds me of my stickball swing, staying upright and loose in the box before ripping liners all over the parking lot, er, baseball field. He hits the ball very hard and makes great contact (15.5% K%), and even though his swing is geared for line drives he still hit 15 homers in 104 games at mostly Single-A (163 wRC+ in 47 games) and High-A (117 wRC+ in 53 games). He is now destroying the AFL, slashing .324/.368/.577 with 3 homers in 18 games. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 79/22/85/.276/.332/.457/7

5) Greg Jones TBR, SS, 24.1 – Jones is all about that pure, uncut upside with double plus speed and plus raw power. He knocked 14 homers and was 34 for 36 on the bases in 72 games split between High-A (144 wRC+ in 72 games) and Double-A (60 wRC+ in 16 games). He was a perfect for 7 for 7 on the bases at Double-A, so the stolen base prowess is definitely real. His strikeout rates are in the danger zone (29.2% at High-A and 35% at Double-A), and he’s on the older side, so the risk is very high, but the upside is worth chasing. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 75/16/61/.242/.318/.428/24

6) Taj Bradley TBR, RHP, 21.0 – Bradley relies heavily on his plus mid 90’s fastball which he has above average control of and gets plenty of whiffs with. He combines that with a breaking ball that flashes plus, but is still inconsistent, and a lesser used developing changeup. He rolled right through the lower minors with a pitching line of 1.83/0.93/123/31 in 103.1 IP split between Single-A and High-A. Good control of a plus fastball makes him relatively safe, and his ceiling will be determined by how much he can improve his secondaries. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/3.98/1.25/163 in 160 IP

7) Carson Williams TBR, SS, 18.9 – Selected 28th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Williams was one of the youngest players in his class and still stepped right into pro ball and performed well with a 130 wRC+ in 11 games. He has a good feel to hit with quick bat speed, and at 6’2”, 180 pounds more power is definitely coming as he matures. He also has some speed. He’s shaping up to be an above average all category contributor. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 79/22/80/.268/.333/.447/9

8) Heriberto Hernandez TBR, OF, 22.4 – Hernandez is your classic 3 true outcome slugger with a 28.1%/15.3% K%/BB% and 44.2% FB% in 73 games at Single-A. He’s always been old for his level and he isn’t good on defense, so playing time could always be a struggle, especially in Tampa’s stacked organization. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/25/77/.251/.335/.467/4

9) Carlos Colmenarez TBR, SS, 18.3 – A hamate injury limited Colmenarez to 26 games, and he didn’t do much in those games with 0 homers, a 26.3%/7.0% K%/BB% and a 79 wRC+ in the DSL, but it’s too early to go off him. He did manage to lift the ball with a 45.7% FB%, so when the raw power inevitably comes, he won’t have any trouble getting to it in games. He still has that same above average across the board potential which made him a very high priced international signing. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 79/20/76/.270/.330/.440/10

10) Ian Seymour TBR, LHP, 23.4 – An elbow injury delayed the start of Seymour’s season until July and limited him to only 55.1 IP, but he quickly proved too advanced for minor league hitters in his pro debut with a pitching line of 1.95/0.81/87/19 split across 3 levels (A, A+, AAA). He doesn’t have huge stuff but he has above average control of a low 90’s fastball and two potentially plus secondaries in his slider and change. He also mixes in a cutter and curve. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.08/1.29/154 in 155 IP

Just Missed

11) Xavier Edwards TBR, 2B, 22.8

12) Cole Wilcox TBR, RHP, 22.9

13) Seth Johnson TBR, RHP, 23.6

Strategy

Tampa Bay can be a nightmare for fantasy owners. They pull their pitchers early and sometimes they don’t even start their starters, they use them as followers. They also use their entire bench and impressive depth to give plenty of days off to all of their position players. While frustrating, there is a method to their madness. They are trying to put their players in the best position to succeed and stay healthy throughout the season, so you can’t be too mad at them. Regardless, it makes me hesitant to go after their pitchers in quality start leagues, and you can’t count on them to rack up innings for you.

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

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