Top 146 2025 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon)

I’m pumped to be getting into the true meat of the off-season, and we kick things off with the Top 146 2025 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings! The top 12 are free down below on the Brick Wall. Full analysis, Prime Projections, and ETA’s for every player. The FYPD Target and Strategy Guide is coming tomorrow on the Patreon, and then I will close out the week with another installment of the Sneak Peek of the Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings Series. And we are just getting started with sooooooo much more coming. But first, here is the Top 146 2025 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings:

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1) Roki Sasaki – FRA, RHP, 23.5 – Sasaki and his people pulled whatever back room deals that needed to be pulled and got him coming stateside this season, which is insanely exciting, because there is little doubt that he will be a true ace right from the get go, and possibly the best pitcher in all the land. He’s better than Yamamoto, and you saw Yamamoto’s seamless transition, other than the shoulder injury. Sasaki’s fastball sits in the upper 90’s and regularly hits over 100 MPH. The splitter is truly elite and the slider is plus. He has prototypical size at a projectable and athletic 6’2”, 187 pounds, and he has plus control/command of his stuff. He’s been so insanely dominant in Japan that he has basically already hit legend status with so many crazy feats, and he’s only 23 years old. He put up a 2.35 ERA with a 28.7/7.1 K%/BB% in 111 IP this year. He was even better in 2023 with a 1.78 ERA and 39.1%/4.9% K%/BB% in 91 IP. As you can see, the biggest and only red flag is injuries, as he has a career high of 129.1 IP. He battled an oblique injury in 2023 and right arm discomfort in 2024. The right arm discomfort is particularly concerning because his stuff was actually down a tick or two this year. It was still beastly, but would any of us be surprised if Tommy John/internal brace surgery was right around the corner? You can’t be too scared off by that, because even if he needs it, he should still return as an ace. He’s so easily the top pick in First Year Player Drafts, and he has a very real argument to be the top dynasty pitcher in the game. – 2025 Projection: 12/3.06/1.04/175 in 150 IP Prime Projection: 16/2.72/0.92/240 in 185 IP

2) Travis Bazzana – CLE, 2B, 22.7 – Selected 1st overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, Bazzana looks like a tightly wound ball of kinetic energy that is just ready to explode in the box (I think ball of “Potential” energy is actually the correct scientific term, but I felt like “Kinetic” just hit harder 🙂 … There is toe tapping and bat wiggling before he absolutely uncoils on the baseball, jacking 28 homers in 60 games in the Pac 12 this year, and also smoking 6 homers with a 1.037 OPS in the wood bat cape cod league in 2023. He’s “only” 6 feet tall, but there is easy plus power in here at the least. He combines the plus power with a near elite plate approach/hit tool (12.5%/25.7% K%/BB%), and speed (16 steals). He didn’t standout in his pro debut, but he did enough to feel confident about him fulfilling his upside with 3 homers, 5 steals, a 126 wRC+ and 25.4/13.9 K%/BB% in 27 games at High-A. He’s the total offensive package, and there is a reason he got taken #1 overall by a very smart franchise despite limited defensive value. The only thing that can stop him seems to be his parents. His parents almost ended his career before it started when celebrating. His dad tried to rip his arm out of his socket, and then his mom put him in some kind of neck hold into a tripping maneuver. Travis almost looked like he was about to square up with his mom for a second there. I guess they do things differently Down Under in Australia. – 2025 Projection: 31/7/31/.247/.319/.420/8 Prime Projection: 91/24/79/.271/.349/.455/25

3) JJ Wetherholt – STL, 2B, 22.7 – Selected 7th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, Wetherholt might not have quite the ceiling of Bazzana, but even that is highly debatable, and he’s establishing that he most probably has the floor edge with a 11.9% K% at Single-A vs. Bazzana’s 25.4% K% at High-A. Different levels, but that is a pretty stark difference. He hit the ball on the ground a lot more than Bazzana, which is where some of that upside edge comes in, but he did it with a 91.9 MPH EV, so don’t cap his power upside too much. He’s two inches smaller than Bazzana at 5’10”, but he rocks that little man leg kick that I’ve always loved, and always seems to get the most out of smaller guys raw power. He slid in the draft a bit after getting a lot of #1 overall buzz, likely due to missing about half of the season with a hamstring injury and still not being fully healthy when he returned. It was his 2nd major hamstring injury within the year. His 16 homer pace was also not that impressive when everyone else was hitting like 30+. What he does better than maybe anyone else in the draft though is hit. He put up a 10.4%/18.3% K%/BB% in 2024 and had a 8.2% K% in 2023. He’s a complete hitter who uses the entire field with a quick and simple lefty swing. Tack on plus speed (57 steals in 145 career games), and you have a damn enticing fantasy player even if his power upside doesn’t quite match some of the other bats in the class. I have Bazzana ranked over him, but I don’t think it’s some no brainer decision. JJ is right there. – 2025 Projection: 18/3/16/.259/.321/.401/5 Prime Projection: 96/19/73/.287/.353/.438/23

4) Chase Burns – CIN, RHP, 22.3 – Selected 2nd overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, dynasty managers owe a huge debt of gratitude to Cincinnati for going Burns over Condon. It would have made me legitimately sad to see Burns going to the Rockies. I know Cincinnati is no cake walk for pitchers themselves, but they just have a small ballpark, they don’t have different air. And we’ve seen plenty of pitchers have excellent seasons in Cincy (Castillo, Gray, Greene, Lodolo), so I wouldn’t let this landing spot move you off Burns at all. He has legit ace upside at a strong 6’3”, 210 pounds with a double plus fastball that sits in the upper 90’s and a double plus slider that put up elite whiff rates. It led to a 2.70 ERA with a ridiculous 48.8%/7.7% K%/BB% in 100 IP in the ACC. He’s inevitably going to get compared to Skenes, and Skenes put up a 1.69 ERA with a 45.2%/4.3% K%/BB% in 122.2 IP in the SEC. Skenes was in the tougher conference (although Burns pitched well in the SEC in 2022-23 before transferring to the ACC) with a better ERA, better walk rate and more IP. Burns isn’t as good as Skenes, but not many pitchers are better than Skenes, so that isn’t much of a knock. Burns also throws a curve and changeup to give him a legit starters pitch mix, and how well he can develop those pitches could dictate whether he becomes a true ace or a high K, #2/3 type. If your dynasty team is stacked with hitting, I don’t think taking Burns #1 overall should be ruled out. The teams that took Skenes over Langford and Crews in 2024 aren’t complaining too much right now, and while I already noted that Burns isn’t Skenes, the college hitting class also aren’t Langford/Crews. – 2025 Projection: 4/3.73/1.20/87 in 75 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.23/1.08/237 in 190 IP

5) Christian Moore – LAA, 2B, 22.5 – Selected 8th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, the Angels don’t fuck around when it comes to promoting advanced college hitters to the majors, so you know Moore is going to be a contributor on your fantasy team real quick, possibly as soon as Opening Day. Shit, he almost made his MLB debut in 2024 with his absolute destruction of pro ball, slashing .322/.378/.533 with 5 homers, 2 steals, and a 29.6/8.2 K%/BB% in 23 games at Double-A. A knee injury (meniscus) is likely the only thing that stopped that from happening, but he returned to Double-A before the season ended and went 3 for 4 with a double and 4 RBI, so I wouldn’t be worried about the knee. I fell in love with his personality during his Draft Day interview. It was the perfect mix of confident, cocky, thoughtful, playful and mature. That just seems like the type of infectious attitude I want on my team. He wasn’t kidding when he said he had Champion in his blood. And of course, he was an absolute beast in the SEC, smashing 34 homers with a 1.248 OPS and 14.5%/11.3% K%/BB% in 72 games. He has a very strong righty swing at 6’1”, 210 pounds, producing at least plus power with average speed on the bases. In his freshman year in 2022, he put up a 1.062 OPS with 10 homers in 149 PA to give you an idea of the type of natural talent this is. As you saw with his K rate at Double-A, there are definitely some hit tool issues, which I’m not ignoring, but I’m also not letting it scare me off. I was high on Moore before his pro debut, and now I am over the moon for him. – 2025 Projection: 70/23/77/.242/.310/.437/8 Prime Projection: 83/28/91/.260/.331/.472/11

6) Nick Kurtz – OAK, 1B, 22.1 – Selected 4th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, Kurtz had one of the best pro debuts in his draft class with 4 homers in 7 games at Single-A, and a 129 wRC+ with a 20.0/13.3 K%/BB% in 5 games at Double-A. It was a just a continuation of the 3 years of dominance in the ACC. He’s a large man at 6’5”, 240 pounds in the mold of a Jim Thome, country strong type. But he’s not just brute strength, he has electric bat speed that led to 61 homers in 164 career games in college. He combines the at least plus power with an extremely patient plate approach and good feel to hit (16.2%/30% K%/BB%). He also has some sneaky athleticism, evidenced by a perfect 11 for 11 on the bases in his college career. The ceiling here is your classic complete hitting first baseman with power and patience. And it looks like the Athletics intend to fly him through the minors, so it might not even be crazy to see him break camp with the team, even if I wouldn’t bet on that. The biggest downside is that his season ended on August 24th with a hamstring injury, and injuries have plagued him throughout his career, so I think it’s something that has to be taken into account unfortunately. He returned in time to decimate the AFL with a 1.058 OPS in 13 games, so I don’t think you should overrate the injury risk too much, but it’s worth noting. – 2025 Projection: 48/16/57/.247/.323/.439/4 Prime Projection: 89/28/93/.266/.351/.488/6

7) Konnor Griffin – PIT, OF, 18.11 – Selected 9th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, Griffin has the highest pure upside in this entire class, and that includes Roki Sasaki. He’s 6’4”, 215 pounds and has the look of a #1 overall pick in the NFL Draft as a QB. He has the neck of a football player too. He also has the athleticism of a football player with legit potential to put up 30/30 seasons with a plus to double plus power/speed combo. He’s shown a good feel to hit with a good plate approach in his high school career, but like I mentioned back in February 2024 when I did a very early Top 10 FYPD Ranking, the swing isn’t necessarily the smoothest thing in the world, although it actually looks much better to me now than it did then. Plus you can tack on electric bat speed and bank on continued refinement considering how young he is for the class. Pitt obviously wasn’t worried enough about the hit tool to let him slip by them at #9, and for fantasy especially, I wouldn’t let it scare you off him either. This is legit elite dynasty asset potential, and there is chance you are kicking yourself 1-2 years from now for taking a good but not great college bat, over this potentially elite dynasty player. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 89/25/92/.261/.337/.470/33

8) Cam Smith – HOU, 3B, 22.1 – Selected 14th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, the 6’3”, 224 pound Smith generates a tremendous amount of power with very little movement in his swing. It is quick, powerful and short to the ball. It is straight up one of the quietest swings from one of the biggest men I’ve ever seen. The swing is geared more for a line drive, all fields approach rather than pull and lift, which is why he didn’t put up the gaudy homer totals as some of his other college hitting brethren with only 16 homers in 66 games in the ACC. But he has the raw power to make that profile work, and the upside is that it can come with a high BA. We saw what this profile can look like at it’s best in his dominant pro debut, slashing .313/.396/.609 with 7 homers, 2 steals, and a 17.9/11.2 K%/BB% in 32 games split between Single-A, High-A, and Double-A. He put up a 122 wRC+ in 5 games at Double-A, so the profile was transferring to the upper minors, and he clearly had no problems ripping dingers to all fields with the wood bat. He very well might have the top hit/power combo in the FYPD class, and it’s why Houston targeted him in the Kyle Tucker trade. The trade doesn’t really change his value at all, but he will definitely get a nice ballpark upgrade even if he doesn’t have the type of profile that necessarily needs it. – 2025 Projection: 12/4/17/.247/.308/.412/1 Prime Projection: 84/24/89/.273/.340/.466/4

9) Hagen Smith – CHW, LHP, 21.7 – Selected 6th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, the White Sox know a thing or two about developing vicious lefty starters with funky deliveries and some control risk. They’ve done just fine with Chris Sale, Garrett Crochet, and Noah Schultz. The 6’3”, 225 pound Hagen Smith is next on that list with a three quarter arm slot delivery that he uses to fire a double plus mid 90’s fastball and double plus slider. Both pitches are whiff machines, leading to a 2.04 ERA with a 48.6%/10.3% K%/BB% in 84 IP in the SEC. He also mixes in a splitter, and while he doesn’t throw it that often, it’s a good pitch when he goes to it. The walk rate is on the high side, and it was worse in his freshman and sophomore seasons with a 13.4% BB% in 148.3 IP. Improving his control/command and turning his splitter into a higher usage 3rd weapon can turn Smith into a true ace. If he can’t improve in those areas, a high K, mid-rotation starter is within the range of outcomes (and I guess the bullpen is too, but you don’t take a guy 6th overall to use him in the bullpen long term). I’m surprised that Smith was allowed to debut in 2024, but Chicago marches to the beat of their own drum. He more than held his own at High-A with a 3.52 ERA and 21.2/6.1 K%/BB% in 7.2 IP over 3 outings. The filthy stuff was as advertised, and while the K numbers weren’t off the charts, it’s nice to see that clean walk rate. Add a star for being young for the class, but take a star away for already undergoing Tommy John when he was 16 years old. – 2025 Projection: 2/3.91/1.28/50 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.48/1.17/203 in 175 IP

10) Charlie Condon – COL, 3B/1B/OF, 21.11 – Let me just start by saying that I’ve been valuing pro debuts extremely high from the second I started writing back in 2015/16, and it has served me extremely well in both directions (moving guys both up and down). It was back before any other outlet would even consider changing their evaluation or ranking of a player based on their pro debut. When asked, they would just hand wave it away and say something like “small sample,” even though the sample was often actually bigger in pro ball than it was in their Junior year of college (back when the draft was in early June). It made no sense to me why the pro debut with wood bats and more advanced pitching wouldn’t be weighed more heavily. And now, you see basically every outlet change their ranking at least somewhat based on the pro debuts, which is the right move. That brings us to Charlie Condon, who just had the type of pro debut you have nightmares over. Despite all of his pre draft hype, he did have some hit tool questions at 6’6” with relatively high K rates throughout his college career. And the hit tool immediately didn’t transfer to pro ball with a .180 BA and 31.2/3.7 K%/BB% in 25 games at High-A. That isn’t just bad, that is atrocious. Completely lost. It’s not great that the only question he had coming out of the draft was immediately answered, and not in a good way. This was a 21 year old in the lower minors. You need a high FYPD college bat to dominate in the majors by like 23 years old, let alone High-A. Jacob Berry and Chase Davis were the last two hyped college bats to have poor pro debuts, and neither of their values are anywhere close to where you wanted them to be. Condon is a better prospect than both of those guys, and I’m not dropping him as far down as those guys at all, but I do believe he does deserve a real drop. This draft class was already really tightly packed at the top with a lot of really, really good college talent, but no one true standout. So based on Condon’s poor debut, I don’t see how it doesn’t make complete sense to drop him under those guys. He has a clear carrying tool in his power, and of course I do factor in that the pro debut was at the end of a long season, draft process, new team, new coach, new everything etc …, so he’s still a Top 10 FYPD pick for me. I still like him as a power bat who will get to hit in Coors (but also gets their developmental team, and it looks like he still needs development). I just wouldn’t be able to pull the trigger on him until the other similarly talented college players with better debuts were off the board first. I feel like that’s reasonable. – ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 77/30/88/.241/.322/.472/8

11) Braden Montgomery – CHW, OF, 22.0 – Selected 12th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, there was a lot of talk about Montgomery dropping his righty swing to hit exclusively lefty. That doesn’t really seem like what you want to hear from a highly drafted college bat, but the lefty swing is so smooth and powerful I get why it doesn’t seem like that big of a deal overall. He also had a 20% K% which is substantially higher than the college bats drafted before him. Maybe that is partly why he slipped a bit to 12th overall, and also why Boston was willing to include him in the Crochet trade. The broken ankle which he suffered pre draft on June 8th was also likely a major reason for the drop. So he certainly has some risk with hit tool, platooning and injury, but he also has very major power upside. He’s 6’2”, 220 pounds and he smashed 27 homers with a 1.187 OPS in 61 games in the SEC. He’s been smashing homers his entire career with 62 homers in 187 games split between the Pac 12 and SEC. He absolutely destroys the baseball with huge exit velocities. That gives him a no doubt carrying tool that will make him a fantasy force. As for the trade, it really doesn’t change his value at all. The path to playing time is clearer, but it’s an organization downgrade and a future lineup downgrade. It’s also a ballpark downgrade. If anything, it makes me like him slightly less, but again, this really shouldn’t change his value too much. – ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 81/28/89/.251/.333/.475/6

12) Jac Caglionone – KCR, 1B, 22.2 – Selected 6th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, Caglionone’s pro debut was on the disappointing side, and with how tightly packed the talent is in the FYPD Top 12, he’s sliding down my rankings to the bottom of that Top 12 tier. He had hit tool and chase questions coming out of the draft, and hitting .241 with a 20.6/5.6 K%/BB% in his 29 game pro debut at High-A did nothing to quell those issues. He put up a lowly 94 wRC+ with 2 homers, which isn’t what you want to see from an elite college bat in the lower minors. He then went to the AFL where the pitching was so bad this year, they are actively trying to figure out how to improve the pitchers in that league in future years, and he still couldn’t dominate with a .749 OPS in 21 games. Tons of hitters were putting up just wacky numbers in that extreme offensive environment. He did jack 5 homers, and there is zero doubt about his massive power, so there is no doubt he has a carrying tool even if the hit tool and plate approach take time to adjust to pro pitching. He’s built like an NFL tight end at 6’5”, 250 pounds, and he obliterated the SEC with 75 homers in 165 career games. It took him some time to improve his plate skills in college as well, making big improvements his junior year with a 8.2/18.4 K%/BB% (18.2/5.3 K%/BB% his sophomore year), so the hope is that he can do the same in the majors. KC’s ballpark is death to lefty homers, and while I am factoring that in a bit, he has the type of power to not get too hung up on it. Even though the pro debut does have him sliding down the rankings a bit, it’s almost more because of how much comparable college talent there is at the top of this class to begin with. He’s still a very exciting power bat. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 81/31/92/.248/.329/.479/6

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
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Top 146 2025 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon)

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